2020-21 First Division B Season

112 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Union SG

19.70 points above expected

70 points · 50.30 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lierse Kempenzonen

19.37 points below expected

16 points · 35.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Union SG 28 22 4 2 70 69 24 +45 50.3 +19.70
2 Seraing 28 16 4 8 52 50 37 +13 42.1 +9.92
3 Westerlo 28 10 13 5 43 41 30 +11 42.0 +1.04
4 Lommel 28 13 4 11 43 50 42 +8 30.9 +12.15
5 Deinze 28 10 9 9 39 45 46 -1 31.9 +7.12
6 RWDM 47 28 10 5 13 35 44 49 -5 40.5 -5.47
7 Lierse Kempenzonen 28 4 4 20 16 25 55 -30 35.4 -19.37
8 Club NXT 28 2 7 19 13 23 64 -41 32.1 -19.09

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Union SG 1670 70 50.30 +19.70 100.0% 31 36 47 51 54 60 66
Westerlo 1556 43 41.96 +1.04 60.0% 21 28 38 43 47 53 59
Seraing 1551 52 42.08 +9.92 95.0% 25 33 38 42 46 52 60
RWDM 47 1502 35 40.47 -5.47 27.0% 23 28 35 40 46 52 62
Lommel 1493 43 30.85 +12.15 96.0% 17 20 26 31 35 39 49
Deinze 1466 39 31.88 +7.12 90.0% 18 21 27 32 36 41 46
Lierse Kempenzonen 1402 16 35.37 -19.37 0.0% 20 23 30 36 40 46 51
Club NXT 1385 13 32.09 -19.09 0.0% 19 21 27 32 36 43 47

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CN DEI LK LOM R4 SER US WES
Club NXT
0-1-3
5.30
2-0-2
4.85
0-1-3
5.50
0-1-3
4.32
0-0-4
4.48
0-1-3
3.67
0-3-1
3.62
Deinze
3-1-0
5.51
3-1-0
4.92
2-1-1
5.11
1-3-0
4.30
1-1-2
4.37
0-1-3
3.38
0-1-3
4.17
Lierse Kempenzonen
2-0-2
5.93
0-1-3
5.88
0-0-4
5.84
1-0-3
4.77
1-1-2
4.88
0-0-4
3.76
0-2-2
4.51
Lommel
3-1-0
5.36
1-1-2
5.67
4-0-0
5.03
4-0-0
4.44
0-0-4
4.56
0-0-4
3.47
1-2-1
4.20
RWDM 47
3-1-0
6.56
0-3-1
6.55
3-0-1
6.03
0-0-4
6.41
1-0-3
5.32
1-0-3
4.25
2-1-1
5.24
Seraing
4-0-0
6.38
2-1-1
6.47
2-1-1
5.99
4-0-0
6.27
3-0-1
5.46
1-0-3
3.98
0-2-2
4.91
Union SG
3-1-0
7.44
3-1-0
7.71
4-0-0
7.28
4-0-0
7.58
3-0-1
6.65
3-0-1
6.93
2-2-0
6.32
Westerlo
1-3-0
7.40
3-1-0
6.70
2-2-0
6.34
1-2-1
6.66
1-1-2
5.55
2-2-0
5.87
0-2-2
4.50

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%7.14%6.25%2.68%2.23%0.89%23.66%
17.14%12.50%6.25%4.46%0.45%0.45%31.25%
26.25%6.25%4.46%2.23%2.68%0.89%22.77%
32.68%4.46%2.23%1.34%0.45%11.16%
42.23%0.45%2.68%1.34%0.89%7.59%
5+0.89%0.45%0.89%0.45%0.89%3.57%
Total23.66%31.25%22.77%11.16%7.59%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.54
Mean allowed1.54
StdDev scored1.36
StdDev allowed1.36
Mean total goals/game3.08
Correlation (home vs away score)0.023
Sample size (games)112
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%32.14%
121.43%14.29%14.29%3.57%53.57%
27.14%3.57%3.57%14.29%
3
4
5+
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%7.14%100%

Club NXT — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.82
Mean allowed2.29
StdDev scored0.67
StdDev allowed1.56
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.304
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%25.00%
17.14%17.86%25.00%
210.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%28.57%
37.14%7.14%
43.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%14.29%
5+
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%14.29%14.29%100%

Deinze — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed1.64
StdDev scored1.34
StdDev allowed1.37
Mean total goals/game3.25
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.062
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%17.86%7.14%3.57%53.57%
13.57%10.71%7.14%21.43%
23.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%
37.14%3.57%10.71%
43.57%3.57%
5+
Total10.71%28.57%32.14%17.86%3.57%7.14%100%

Lierse Kempenzonen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.89
Mean allowed1.96
StdDev scored1.20
StdDev allowed1.32
Mean total goals/game2.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.185
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%
110.71%10.71%10.71%3.57%35.71%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%21.43%
37.14%7.14%3.57%17.86%
43.57%3.57%7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%7.14%
Total17.86%32.14%32.14%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Lommel — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.75
Mean allowed1.46
StdDev scored1.38
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game3.21
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.297
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%21.43%
17.14%10.71%7.14%25.00%
210.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%32.14%
33.57%10.71%3.57%17.86%
43.57%3.57%
5+
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%7.14%17.86%3.57%100%

RWDM 47 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.57
Mean allowed1.75
StdDev scored1.14
StdDev allowed1.53
Mean total goals/game3.32
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.106
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%25.00%
121.43%7.14%3.57%32.14%
23.57%3.57%7.14%
33.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%
43.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%
5+3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%14.29%
Total32.14%21.43%21.43%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Seraing — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.75
Mean allowed1.29
StdDev scored1.86
StdDev allowed1.30
Mean total goals/game3.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.352
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%7.14%
13.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%
221.43%14.29%7.14%42.86%
33.57%7.14%7.14%17.86%
43.57%3.57%7.14%14.29%
5+7.14%7.14%
Total42.86%32.14%21.43%3.57%100%

Union SG — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.46
Mean allowed0.86
StdDev scored1.37
StdDev allowed0.89
Mean total goals/game3.32
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.035
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%14.29%
17.14%25.00%7.14%3.57%3.57%46.43%
27.14%7.14%10.71%25.00%
37.14%7.14%
43.57%3.57%7.14%
5+
Total35.71%35.71%17.86%7.14%3.57%100%

Westerlo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.46
Mean allowed1.07
StdDev scored1.07
StdDev allowed1.09
Mean total goals/game2.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.066
Games played28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Union SG 70 50.3 +19.70
2 Lommel 43 30.9 +12.15
3 Seraing 52 42.1 +9.92
4 Deinze 39 31.9 +7.12
5 Westerlo 43 42.0 +1.04

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lierse Kempenzonen 16 35.4 -19.37
2 Club NXT 13 32.1 -19.09
3 RWDM 47 35 40.5 -5.47
4 Westerlo 43 42.0 +1.04
5 Deinze 39 31.9 +7.12

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union SG 11 Dec 5 – Mar 13 1 in 663
2 Seraing 4 Sep 29 – Oct 25 1 in 74
3 Deinze 3 Sep 12 – Oct 4 1 in 52
4 Lommel 3 Dec 18 – Jan 29 1 in 23
5 Westerlo 3 Nov 28 – Dec 11 1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 9 Nov 27 – Feb 26 1 in 1,546
2 Lierse Kempenzonen 6 Nov 14 – Dec 19 1 in 310
3 RWDM 47 3 Aug 29 – Sep 18 1 in 54
4 Seraing 2 Sep 13 – Sep 19 1 in 6
5 Westerlo 2 Oct 31 – Nov 6 1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union SG 16 Dec 5 – Apr 25 1 in 39
2 Deinze 5 Sep 12 – Oct 23 1 in 19
3 Westerlo 7 Nov 9 – Dec 11 1 in 10
4 Lommel 4 Oct 30 – Nov 29 1 in 9
5 Seraing 5 Feb 28 – Mar 21 1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 14 Nov 27 – Apr 2 1 in 64
2 Lierse Kempenzonen 12 Jan 31 – Apr 25 1 in 47
3 RWDM 47 8 Mar 3 – Apr 17 1 in 42
4 Westerlo 6 Mar 3 – Apr 9 1 in 34
5 Seraing 3 Nov 7 – Nov 22 1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Union SG69.00%16.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%
Seraing8.00%22.00%31.00%18.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%
Westerlo11.00%26.00%22.00%17.00%8.00%5.00%8.00%3.00%
Lommel2.00%1.00%14.00%10.00%19.00%24.00%30.00%
Deinze1.00%7.00%4.00%23.00%21.00%23.00%21.00%
RWDM 4710.00%25.00%10.00%17.00%19.00%8.00%7.00%4.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen1.00%7.00%18.00%13.00%13.00%18.00%14.00%16.00%
Club NXT1.00%1.00%7.00%13.00%10.00%24.00%19.00%25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Won promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Union SG 69.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.0%
Westerlo 11.0% 7.0% 20.0% 59.0% 3.0%
Seraing 9.0% 6.0% 16.0% 68.0% 1.0%
RWDM 47 10.0% 6.0% 19.0% 61.0% 4.0%
Lierse Kempenzonen 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 76.0% 16.0%
Deinze 1.0% 78.0% 21.0%
Club NXT 75.0% 25.0%
Lommel 1.0% 1.0% 68.0% 30.0%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-08-21 Union SG L 0-2 1438 1529 25.4% 28.4% 46.2% -8.1 0
2020-08-21 @ Deinze W 2-0 1529 1438 46.2% 28.4% 25.4% +8.1 3
2020-08-22 Club NXT W 2-0 1536 1536 36.4% 30.8% 32.8% +10.0 3
2020-08-22 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1536 1536 32.8% 30.8% 36.4% -10.0 0
2020-08-23 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1517 1536 33.6% 30.8% 35.6% +0.1 1
2020-08-23 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1536 1517 35.6% 30.8% 33.6% -0.1 1
2020-08-24 Seraing L 3-5 1430 1488 28.8% 30.0% 41.2% -6.7 0
2020-08-24 @ Lommel W 5-3 1488 1430 41.2% 30.0% 28.8% +6.7 3
2020-08-28 Deinze W 3-2 1495 1430 46.0% 28.5% 25.5% +3.9 6
2020-08-28 @ Seraing L 2-3 1430 1495 25.5% 28.5% 46.0% -3.9 0
2020-08-29 RWDM 47 W 4-2 1536 1546 34.9% 30.9% 34.2% +8.0 4
2020-08-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-4 1546 1536 34.2% 30.9% 34.9% -8.0 3
2020-08-30 Lommel D 2-2 1526 1424 51.7% 25.9% 22.4% -0.7 1
2020-08-30 @ Club NXT D 2-2 1424 1526 22.4% 25.9% 51.7% +0.7 1
2020-08-30 Westerlo D 0-0 1537 1517 39.4% 30.4% 30.2% -0.3 4
2020-08-30 @ Union SG D 0-0 1517 1537 30.2% 30.4% 39.4% +0.3 2
2020-09-11 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1424 1544 23.0% 26.5% 50.5% +6.4 4
2020-09-11 @ Lommel L 2-3 1544 1424 50.5% 26.5% 23.0% -6.4 4
2020-09-12 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1426 1538 23.6% 27.1% 49.4% +7.1 3
2020-09-12 @ Deinze L 0-1 1538 1426 49.4% 27.1% 23.6% -7.1 3
2020-09-13 Union SG D 1-1 1526 1537 34.7% 30.9% 34.4% -0.0 2
2020-09-13 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1537 1526 34.4% 30.9% 34.7% +0.0 5
2020-09-13 Westerlo L 0-2 1499 1517 33.7% 30.8% 35.4% -10.2 6
2020-09-13 @ Seraing W 2-0 1517 1499 35.4% 30.8% 33.7% +10.2 5
2020-09-18 Lommel L 0-1 1531 1431 51.4% 26.1% 22.6% -7.3 3
2020-09-18 @ RWDM 47 W 1-0 1431 1531 22.6% 26.1% 51.4% +7.3 7
2020-09-19 Seraing W 3-2 1537 1488 43.6% 29.4% 27.1% +4.1 8
2020-09-19 @ Union SG L 2-3 1488 1537 27.1% 29.4% 43.6% -4.1 6
2020-09-20 Club NXT W 2-1 1538 1526 38.2% 30.6% 31.2% +4.8 7
2020-09-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1526 1538 31.2% 30.6% 38.2% -4.8 2
2020-09-26 Union SG W 3-1 1524 1541 33.9% 30.9% 35.2% +9.1 6
2020-09-26 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1541 1524 35.2% 30.9% 33.9% -9.1 8
2020-09-27 Deinze L 1-2 1438 1433 37.1% 30.7% 32.1% -5.5 7
2020-09-27 @ Lommel W 2-1 1433 1438 32.1% 30.7% 37.1% +5.5 6
2020-09-29 Seraing L 2-5 1543 1484 45.1% 28.9% 26.1% -13.3 7
2020-09-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-2 1484 1543 26.1% 28.9% 45.1% +13.3 9
2020-10-02 Club NXT W 6-1 1498 1521 33.1% 30.8% 36.1% +20.8 12
2020-10-02 @ Seraing L 1-6 1521 1498 36.1% 30.8% 33.1% -20.8 2
2020-10-04 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1439 1529 25.4% 28.5% 46.1% +6.4 9
2020-10-04 @ Deinze L 1-2 1529 1439 46.1% 28.5% 25.4% -6.4 7
2020-10-04 Lommel W 4-2 1532 1433 51.2% 26.2% 22.6% +5.6 11
2020-10-04 @ Union SG L 2-4 1433 1532 22.6% 26.2% 51.2% -5.6 7
2020-10-16 Deinze D 1-1 1500 1445 44.5% 29.0% 26.4% -0.5 3
2020-10-16 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1445 1500 26.4% 29.0% 44.5% +0.5 10
2020-10-17 Westerlo D 1-1 1427 1527 24.6% 27.9% 47.6% +0.7 8
2020-10-17 @ Lommel D 1-1 1527 1427 47.6% 27.9% 24.6% -0.7 6
2020-10-18 Union SG L 0-2 1523 1538 34.3% 30.9% 34.9% -10.4 7
2020-10-18 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1538 1523 34.9% 30.9% 34.3% +10.4 14
2020-10-18 Seraing L 3-4 1533 1518 38.6% 30.6% 30.9% -5.2 6
2020-10-18 @ RWDM 47 W 4-3 1518 1533 30.9% 30.6% 38.6% +5.2 15
2020-10-23 Westerlo D 2-2 1446 1527 26.3% 29.0% 44.7% +0.4 11
2020-10-23 @ Deinze D 2-2 1527 1446 44.7% 29.0% 26.3% -0.4 7
2020-10-25 Lommel W 1-0 1524 1428 50.7% 26.4% 22.9% +3.9 18
2020-10-25 @ Seraing L 0-1 1428 1524 22.9% 26.4% 50.7% -3.9 8
2020-10-25 Club NXT W 6-0 1548 1499 43.6% 29.4% 27.1% +23.9 17
2020-10-25 @ Union SG L 0-6 1499 1548 27.1% 29.4% 43.6% -23.9 3
2020-10-30 Lommel L 1-3 1513 1424 49.6% 26.9% 23.4% -11.6 7
2020-10-30 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1424 1513 23.4% 26.9% 49.6% +11.6 11
2020-10-31 Union SG L 1-4 1526 1572 30.2% 30.4% 39.4% -11.6 7
2020-10-31 @ Westerlo W 4-1 1572 1526 39.4% 30.4% 30.2% +11.6 20
2020-11-01 RWDM 47 L 0-2 1475 1528 29.4% 30.2% 40.4% -9.2 3
2020-11-01 @ Club NXT W 2-0 1528 1475 40.4% 30.2% 29.4% +9.2 9
2020-11-06 Westerlo W 3-1 1537 1515 39.7% 30.4% 30.0% +8.1 12
2020-11-06 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1515 1537 30.0% 30.4% 39.7% -8.1 7
2020-11-07 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1527 1501 40.3% 30.2% 29.5% -10.0 18
2020-11-07 @ Seraing W 3-1 1501 1527 29.5% 30.2% 40.3% +10.0 10
2020-11-08 Club NXT W 3-1 1436 1466 32.1% 30.7% 37.2% +9.5 14
2020-11-08 @ Lommel L 1-3 1466 1436 37.2% 30.7% 32.1% -9.5 3
2020-11-08 Deinze W 3-0 1583 1446 57.0% 22.9% 20.1% +9.0 23
2020-11-08 @ Union SG L 0-3 1446 1583 20.1% 22.9% 57.0% -9.0 11
2020-11-09 RWDM 47 W 3-0 1507 1545 31.1% 30.6% 38.4% +16.3 10
2020-11-09 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1545 1507 38.4% 30.6% 31.1% -16.3 12
2020-11-14 Westerlo D 1-1 1457 1523 27.8% 29.7% 42.5% +0.4 4
2020-11-14 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1523 1457 42.5% 29.7% 27.8% -0.4 11
2020-11-14 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1529 1511 39.0% 30.5% 30.5% +9.5 15
2020-11-14 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1511 1529 30.5% 30.5% 39.0% -9.5 10
2020-11-15 Seraing W 3-0 1437 1517 26.4% 29.0% 44.6% +18.1 14
2020-11-15 @ Deinze L 0-3 1517 1437 44.6% 29.0% 26.4% -18.1 18
2020-11-18 Deinze W 3-0 1522 1455 46.4% 28.3% 25.2% +11.7 14
2020-11-18 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1455 1522 25.2% 28.3% 46.4% -11.7 14
2020-11-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1457 1502 30.3% 30.4% 39.2% +11.4 7
2020-11-20 @ Club NXT L 0-2 1502 1457 39.2% 30.4% 30.3% -11.4 10
2020-11-21 Lommel D 1-1 1443 1445 36.1% 30.8% 33.1% -0.1 15
2020-11-21 @ Deinze D 1-1 1445 1443 33.1% 30.8% 36.1% +0.1 15
2020-11-22 RWDM 47 W 2-1 1592 1538 44.4% 29.1% 26.5% +4.2 26
2020-11-22 @ Union SG L 1-2 1538 1592 26.5% 29.1% 44.4% -4.2 15
2020-11-22 Seraing D 1-1 1534 1499 41.5% 29.9% 28.5% -0.4 15
2020-11-22 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1499 1534 28.5% 29.9% 41.5% +0.4 19
2020-11-27 Club NXT W 1-0 1443 1468 32.8% 30.8% 36.4% +5.7 18
2020-11-27 @ Deinze L 0-1 1468 1443 36.4% 30.8% 32.8% -5.7 7
2020-11-28 Westerlo L 0-1 1490 1534 30.4% 30.5% 39.1% -5.0 10
2020-11-28 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1534 1490 39.1% 30.5% 30.4% +5.0 18
2020-11-29 RWDM 47 W 4-0 1445 1534 25.6% 28.5% 45.9% +24.1 18
2020-11-29 @ Lommel L 0-4 1534 1445 45.9% 28.5% 25.6% -24.1 15
2020-11-29 Union SG W 1-0 1500 1597 24.9% 28.1% 47.1% +6.8 22
2020-11-29 @ Seraing L 0-1 1597 1500 47.1% 28.1% 24.9% -6.8 26
2020-12-04 Seraing L 0-4 1463 1507 30.4% 30.5% 39.1% -18.0 7
2020-12-04 @ Club NXT W 4-0 1507 1463 39.1% 30.5% 30.4% +18.0 25
2020-12-05 Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-0 1590 1485 52.0% 25.7% 22.2% +16.5 29
2020-12-05 @ Union SG L 0-5 1485 1590 22.2% 25.7% 52.0% -16.4 10
2020-12-06 Deinze D 1-1 1510 1449 45.5% 28.7% 25.8% -0.6 16
2020-12-06 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1449 1510 25.8% 28.7% 45.5% +0.6 19
2020-12-06 Lommel W 2-1 1539 1469 46.7% 28.2% 25.1% +4.0 21
2020-12-06 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1469 1539 25.1% 28.2% 46.7% -4.0 18
2020-12-11 Club NXT W 2-1 1543 1445 51.0% 26.2% 22.7% +3.6 24
2020-12-11 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1445 1543 22.7% 26.2% 51.0% -3.6 7
2020-12-12 Deinze L 3-4 1469 1450 39.2% 30.4% 30.4% -5.3 10
2020-12-12 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 4-3 1450 1469 30.4% 30.4% 39.2% +5.3 22
2020-12-13 Union SG L 0-1 1465 1606 21.5% 24.8% 53.7% -3.6 18
2020-12-13 @ Lommel W 1-0 1606 1465 53.7% 24.8% 21.5% +3.6 32
2020-12-13 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1525 1510 38.6% 30.6% 30.9% -6.0 25
2020-12-13 @ Seraing W 1-0 1510 1525 30.9% 30.6% 38.6% +6.0 19
2020-12-18 Lommel L 0-2 1441 1462 33.4% 30.8% 35.7% -10.2 7
2020-12-18 @ Club NXT W 2-0 1462 1441 35.7% 30.8% 33.4% +10.2 21
2020-12-19 Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1516 1463 44.1% 29.2% 26.7% +4.5 22
2020-12-19 @ RWDM 47 L 0-1 1463 1516 26.7% 29.2% 44.1% -4.5 10
2020-12-20 Seraing D 0-0 1455 1519 28.1% 29.8% 42.1% +0.5 23
2020-12-20 @ Deinze D 0-0 1519 1455 42.1% 29.8% 28.1% -0.5 26
2020-12-20 Westerlo W 2-1 1610 1546 45.8% 28.6% 25.6% +4.1 35
2020-12-20 @ Union SG L 1-2 1546 1610 25.6% 28.6% 45.8% -4.1 24
2021-01-22 Club NXT W 3-1 1459 1431 40.5% 30.2% 29.3% +8.0 13
2021-01-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1431 1459 29.3% 30.2% 40.5% -8.0 7
2021-01-23 Union SG L 2-4 1455 1614 20.3% 23.3% 56.4% -4.9 23
2021-01-23 @ Deinze W 4-2 1614 1455 56.4% 23.3% 20.3% +4.9 38
2021-01-24 RWDM 47 W 3-2 1472 1520 29.9% 30.3% 39.8% +5.5 24
2021-01-24 @ Lommel L 2-3 1520 1472 39.8% 30.3% 29.9% -5.5 22
2021-01-24 Seraing W 4-3 1542 1518 40.0% 30.3% 29.7% +4.3 27
2021-01-24 @ Westerlo L 3-4 1518 1542 29.7% 30.3% 40.0% -4.3 26
2021-01-29 Deinze W 4-2 1477 1450 40.3% 30.2% 29.4% +7.2 27
2021-01-29 @ Lommel L 2-4 1450 1477 29.4% 30.2% 40.3% -7.2 23
2021-01-30 Union SG L 0-2 1515 1619 24.2% 27.6% 48.2% -7.7 22
2021-01-30 @ RWDM 47 W 2-0 1619 1515 48.2% 27.6% 24.2% +7.7 41
2021-01-31 Club NXT W 2-1 1514 1423 49.9% 26.8% 23.3% +3.7 29
2021-01-31 @ Seraing L 1-2 1423 1514 23.3% 26.8% 49.9% -3.7 7
2021-01-31 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1547 1467 48.3% 27.6% 24.2% +7.7 30
2021-01-31 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1467 1547 24.2% 27.6% 48.3% -7.7 13
2021-02-05 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1626 1459 61.5% 20.1% 18.4% +2.7 44
2021-02-05 @ Union SG L 1-2 1459 1626 18.4% 20.1% 61.5% -2.7 13
2021-02-06 Lommel W —-— 1518 1484 41.3% 30.0% 28.7% +0.0 32
2021-02-06 @ Seraing L —-— 1484 1518 28.7% 30.0% 41.3% +0.0 27
2021-02-14 Deinze D 1-1 1456 1443 38.3% 30.6% 31.1% -0.2 14
2021-02-14 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1443 1456 31.1% 30.6% 38.3% +0.2 24
2021-02-14 Club NXT W 3-1 1629 1419 67.7% 16.0% 16.3% +3.9 47
2021-02-14 @ Union SG L 1-3 1419 1629 16.3% 16.0% 67.7% -3.9 7
2021-02-15 Lommel D 1-1 1554 1484 46.8% 28.2% 25.0% -0.7 31
2021-02-15 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1484 1554 25.0% 28.2% 46.8% +0.7 28
2021-02-19 Union SG L 0-2 1518 1633 23.3% 26.8% 49.9% -7.4 32
2021-02-19 @ Seraing W 2-0 1633 1518 49.9% 26.8% 23.3% +7.4 50
2021-02-20 Westerlo W 2-1 1507 1554 30.0% 30.4% 39.6% +5.7 25
2021-02-20 @ RWDM 47 L 1-2 1554 1507 39.6% 30.4% 30.0% -5.7 31
2021-02-21 Club NXT W 4-0 1443 1415 40.5% 30.2% 29.3% +17.5 27
2021-02-21 @ Deinze L 0-4 1415 1443 29.3% 30.2% 40.5% -17.5 7
2021-02-21 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1485 1456 40.6% 30.2% 29.2% +4.6 31
2021-02-21 @ Lommel L 1-2 1456 1485 29.2% 30.2% 40.6% -4.6 14
2021-02-26 RWDM 47 L 1-3 1398 1513 23.4% 26.9% 49.8% -6.4 7
2021-02-26 @ Club NXT W 3-1 1513 1398 49.8% 26.9% 23.4% +6.5 28
2021-02-27 Lommel W 3-2 1641 1490 59.0% 21.7% 19.3% +2.8 53
2021-02-27 @ Union SG L 2-3 1490 1641 19.3% 21.7% 59.0% -2.8 31
2021-02-28 Seraing L 0-1 1452 1510 28.7% 30.0% 41.3% -4.8 14
2021-02-28 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1510 1452 41.3% 30.0% 28.7% +4.8 35
2021-02-28 Deinze W 4-0 1548 1461 49.4% 27.1% 23.6% +14.3 34
2021-02-28 @ Westerlo L 0-4 1461 1548 23.6% 27.1% 49.4% -14.3 27
2021-03-03 Westerlo D 1-1 1391 1562 19.6% 22.1% 58.2% +1.2 8
2021-03-03 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1562 1391 58.2% 22.1% 19.6% -1.2 35
2021-03-03 Seraing L 2-4 1519 1515 37.0% 30.7% 32.3% -8.5 28
2021-03-03 @ RWDM 47 W 4-2 1515 1519 32.3% 30.7% 37.0% +8.5 38
2021-03-05 Union SG L 1-3 1447 1643 18.2% 19.7% 62.1% -4.6 14
2021-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1643 1447 62.1% 19.7% 18.2% +4.7 56
2021-03-06 Deinze D 1-1 1511 1447 45.9% 28.6% 25.6% -0.6 29
2021-03-06 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1447 1511 25.6% 28.6% 45.9% +0.6 28
2021-03-07 Club NXT W 2-1 1487 1393 50.5% 26.5% 23.0% +3.7 34
2021-03-07 @ Lommel L 1-2 1393 1487 23.0% 26.5% 50.5% -3.7 8
2021-03-07 Westerlo D 1-1 1523 1561 31.2% 30.6% 38.2% +0.2 39
2021-03-07 @ Seraing D 1-1 1561 1523 38.2% 30.6% 31.2% -0.2 36
2021-03-12 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1447 1442 37.1% 30.7% 32.1% +14.4 31
2021-03-12 @ Deinze L 0-3 1442 1447 32.1% 30.7% 37.1% -14.4 14
2021-03-13 RWDM 47 W 2-1 1648 1510 57.1% 22.9% 20.1% +3.1 59
2021-03-13 @ Union SG L 1-2 1510 1648 20.1% 22.9% 57.1% -3.1 29
2021-03-14 Seraing L 0-1 1389 1524 21.9% 25.3% 52.8% -3.7 8
2021-03-14 @ Club NXT W 1-0 1524 1389 52.8% 25.3% 21.9% +3.7 42
2021-03-14 Westerlo W 1-0 1491 1561 27.4% 29.5% 43.1% +6.4 37
2021-03-14 @ Lommel L 0-1 1561 1491 43.1% 29.5% 27.4% -6.4 36
2021-03-18 RWDM 47 D 4-4 1462 1507 30.2% 30.4% 39.3% +0.1 32
2021-03-18 @ Deinze D 4-4 1507 1462 39.3% 30.4% 30.2% -0.1 30
2021-03-19 Union SG D 2-2 1554 1651 24.9% 28.1% 47.0% +0.5 37
2021-03-19 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1651 1554 47.0% 28.1% 24.9% -0.5 60
2021-03-20 Lommel L 0-1 1428 1497 27.5% 29.6% 42.9% -4.6 14
2021-03-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1497 1428 42.9% 29.6% 27.5% +4.6 40
2021-03-21 Deinze L 2-4 1385 1462 26.8% 29.2% 44.0% -6.6 8
2021-03-21 @ Club NXT W 4-2 1462 1385 44.0% 29.2% 26.8% +6.6 35
2021-03-21 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1527 1507 39.4% 30.4% 30.2% +5.0 45
2021-03-21 @ Seraing L 0-1 1507 1527 30.2% 30.4% 39.4% -5.0 30
2021-04-02 Club NXT D 1-1 1502 1379 54.8% 24.2% 21.0% -1.1 31
2021-04-02 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1379 1502 21.0% 24.2% 54.8% +1.1 9
2021-04-03 Seraing W 2-0 1651 1532 54.1% 24.6% 21.3% +6.7 63
2021-04-03 @ Union SG L 0-2 1532 1651 21.3% 24.6% 54.1% -6.7 45
2021-04-04 Westerlo D 0-0 1423 1555 22.1% 25.6% 52.3% +1.1 15
2021-04-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1555 1423 52.3% 25.6% 22.1% -1.1 38
2021-04-05 Lommel W 2-1 1468 1502 31.7% 30.7% 37.6% +5.5 38
2021-04-05 @ Deinze L 1-2 1502 1468 37.6% 30.7% 31.7% -5.5 40
2021-04-09 RWDM 47 D 2-2 1554 1501 44.3% 29.1% 26.6% -0.4 39
2021-04-09 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1501 1554 26.6% 29.1% 44.3% +0.4 32
2021-04-10 Deinze W 1-0 1526 1474 44.0% 29.2% 26.8% +4.5 48
2021-04-10 @ Seraing L 0-1 1474 1526 26.8% 29.2% 44.0% -4.5 38
2021-04-11 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1380 1424 30.3% 30.4% 39.2% +11.4 12
2021-04-11 @ Club NXT L 0-2 1424 1380 39.2% 30.4% 30.3% -11.4 15
2021-04-11 Union SG L 0-2 1496 1657 20.2% 23.0% 56.8% -6.2 40
2021-04-11 @ Lommel W 2-0 1657 1496 56.8% 23.0% 20.2% +6.2 66
2021-04-16 Union SG L 0-4 1391 1663 14.5% 12.6% 72.8% -7.2 12
2021-04-16 @ Club NXT W 4-0 1663 1391 72.8% 12.6% 14.5% +7.2 69
2021-04-17 Lommel L 2-5 1501 1490 38.0% 30.6% 31.4% -11.8 32
2021-04-17 @ RWDM 47 W 5-2 1490 1501 31.4% 30.6% 38.0% +11.8 43
2021-04-17 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1530 1413 53.9% 24.7% 21.4% -1.1 49
2021-04-17 @ Seraing D 0-0 1413 1530 21.4% 24.7% 53.9% +1.1 16
2021-04-19 Westerlo L 0-1 1469 1553 26.0% 28.8% 45.1% -4.4 38
2021-04-19 @ Deinze W 1-0 1553 1469 45.1% 28.8% 26.0% +4.4 42
2021-04-24 Seraing L 1-3 1502 1529 32.5% 30.8% 36.7% -8.7 43
2021-04-24 @ Lommel W 3-1 1529 1502 36.7% 30.8% 32.5% +8.6 52
2021-04-24 Club NXT D 1-1 1558 1384 62.5% 19.5% 18.1% -1.4 43
2021-04-24 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1384 1558 18.1% 19.5% 62.5% +1.4 13
2021-04-25 RWDM 47 L 0-3 1414 1489 26.9% 29.3% 43.8% -12.4 16
2021-04-25 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1489 1414 43.8% 29.3% 26.9% +12.4 35
2021-04-25 Deinze D 2-2 1671 1465 67.1% 16.4% 16.5% -1.2 70
2021-04-25 @ Union SG D 2-2 1465 1671 16.5% 16.4% 67.1% +1.2 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-09-18 22.56% Lommel 1431 1 @ RWDM 47 1531 0
2 2020-09-11 22.98% @ Lommel 1424 3 Lierse Kempenzonen 1544 2
3 2020-10-30 23.45% Lommel 1424 3 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1513 1
4 2020-09-12 23.57% @ Deinze 1426 1 RWDM 47 1538 0
5 2020-11-29 24.85% @ Seraing 1500 1 Union SG 1597 0
6 2020-10-04 25.41% @ Deinze 1439 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1529 1
7 2020-11-29 25.56% @ Lommel 1445 4 RWDM 47 1534 0
8 2020-09-29 26.09% Seraing 1484 5 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1543 2
9 2020-11-15 26.38% @ Deinze 1437 3 Seraing 1517 0
10 2021-03-14 27.41% @ Lommel 1491 1 Westerlo 1561 0
11 2020-11-07 29.49% Lierse Kempenzonen 1501 3 @ Seraing 1527 1
12 2021-01-24 29.87% @ Lommel 1472 3 RWDM 47 1520 2
13 2021-02-20 30.03% @ RWDM 47 1507 2 Westerlo 1554 1
14 2020-11-20 30.33% @ Club NXT 1457 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1502 0
15 2021-04-11 30.33% @ Club NXT 1380 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1424 0
16 2020-12-12 30.36% Deinze 1450 4 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1469 3
17 2020-12-13 30.87% RWDM 47 1510 1 @ Seraing 1525 0
18 2020-10-18 30.90% Seraing 1518 4 @ RWDM 47 1533 3
19 2020-11-09 31.05% @ Westerlo 1507 3 RWDM 47 1545 0
20 2021-04-17 31.36% Lommel 1490 5 @ RWDM 47 1501 2
21 2021-04-05 31.74% @ Deinze 1468 2 Lommel 1502 1
22 2020-11-08 32.09% @ Lommel 1436 3 Club NXT 1466 1
23 2020-09-27 32.15% Deinze 1433 2 @ Lommel 1438 1
24 2021-03-03 32.27% Seraing 1515 4 @ RWDM 47 1519 2
25 2020-11-27 32.80% @ Deinze 1443 1 Club NXT 1468 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-29 24.08 @ Lommel 4 1445 25.56% RWDM 47 0 1534 45.89%
2 2020-10-25 23.92 @ Union SG 6 1548 43.58% Club NXT 0 1499 27.06%
3 2020-10-02 20.81 @ Seraing 6 1498 33.09% Club NXT 1 1521 36.10%
4 2020-11-15 18.07 @ Deinze 3 1437 26.38% Seraing 0 1517 44.59%
5 2020-12-04 18.01 Seraing 4 1507 39.13% @ Club NXT 0 1463 30.41%
6 2021-02-21 17.48 @ Deinze 4 1443 40.53% Club NXT 0 1415 29.28%
7 2020-12-05 16.46 @ Union SG 5 1590 52.03% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1485 22.25%
8 2020-11-09 16.28 @ Westerlo 3 1507 31.05% RWDM 47 0 1545 38.37%
9 2021-03-12 14.38 @ Deinze 3 1447 37.14% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1442 32.13%
10 2021-02-28 14.27 @ Westerlo 4 1548 49.37% Deinze 0 1461 23.57%
11 2020-09-29 13.29 Seraing 5 1484 26.09% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1543 45.05%
12 2021-04-25 12.44 RWDM 47 3 1489 43.82% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1414 26.89%
13 2021-04-17 11.81 Lommel 5 1490 31.36% @ RWDM 47 2 1501 38.02%
14 2020-11-18 11.72 @ Westerlo 3 1522 46.41% Deinze 0 1455 25.24%
15 2020-10-30 11.59 Lommel 3 1424 23.45% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1513 49.61%
16 2020-10-31 11.57 Union SG 4 1572 39.38% @ Westerlo 1 1526 30.20%
17 2020-11-20 11.38 @ Club NXT 2 1457 30.33% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1502 39.23%
18 2021-04-11 11.38 @ Club NXT 2 1380 30.33% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1424 39.23%
19 2020-10-18 10.36 Union SG 2 1538 34.86% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1523 34.28%
20 2020-09-13 10.24 Westerlo 2 1517 35.45% @ Seraing 0 1499 33.71%
21 2020-12-18 10.19 Lommel 2 1462 35.73% @ Club NXT 0 1441 33.44%
22 2020-08-22 10.05 @ RWDM 47 2 1536 36.39% Club NXT 0 1536 32.82%
23 2020-11-07 10.04 Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1501 29.49% @ Seraing 1 1527 40.27%
24 2020-11-14 9.52 @ RWDM 47 2 1529 39.02% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1511 30.51%
25 2020-11-08 9.50 @ Lommel 3 1436 32.09% Club NXT 1 1466 37.19%