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2020-21 First Division B Season

112 games

Final

Promoted

Union SG

70 pts

Seraing · via playoff

Relegated

Club NXT

administratively relegated

Biggest Overachiever

Union SG

18.35 points above expected

70 points · 51.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lierse Kempenzonen

19.17 points below expected

16 points · 35.17 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Union SG Promoted 28 22 4 2 70 69 24 +45 51.65 +18.35
2 Seraing Promoted 28 16 4 8 52 50 37 +13 42.85 +9.15
3 Westerlo 28 10 13 5 43 41 30 +11 44.64 -1.64
4 Lommel 28 13 4 11 43 50 42 +8 31.37 +11.63
5 Deinze 28 10 9 9 39 45 46 -1 32.47 +6.53
6 RWDM 47 28 10 5 13 35 44 49 -5 40.51 -5.51
7 Lierse Kempenzonen 28 4 4 20 16 25 55 -30 35.17 -19.17
8 Club NXT Demoted 28 2 7 19 13 23 64 -41 31.06 -18.06

Notes

  • Club NXT was forced to leave the league since Excelsior Virton was readmitted for the following season

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Union SG 1689 70 51.65 +18.35 99.8% 23 40 47 52 56 63 76
Westerlo 1565 43 44.64 -1.64 43.2% 20 33 40 45 49 56 71
Seraing 1562 52 42.85 +9.15 92.1% 15 32 38 43 47 54 70
RWDM 47 1496 35 40.51 -5.51 23.9% 17 29 36 40 45 52 66
Lommel 1492 43 31.37 +11.63 96.6% 11 21 27 31 36 42 62
Deinze 1468 39 32.47 +6.53 84.8% 9 22 28 32 37 44 58
Lierse Kempenzonen 1384 16 35.17 -19.17 0.2% 12 24 31 35 40 46 59
Club NXT 1369 13 31.06 -18.06 0.1% 9 21 27 31 35 42 63

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CN DEI LK LOM R4 SER US WES
Club NXT —
0-1-3
5.21
2-0-2
4.91
0-1-3
5.55
0-1-3
4.29
0-0-4
4.25
0-1-3
3.45
0-3-1
3.38
Deinze
3-1-0
5.81
 —
3-1-0
5.17
2-1-1
5.33
1-3-0
4.45
1-1-2
4.29
0-1-3
3.23
0-1-3
4.14
Lierse Kempenzonen
2-0-2
6.11
0-1-3
5.85
 —
0-0-4
5.92
1-0-3
4.80
1-1-2
4.68
0-0-4
3.52
0-2-2
4.35
Lommel
3-1-0
5.49
1-1-2
5.68
4-0-0
5.13
 —
4-0-0
4.48
0-0-4
4.38
0-0-4
3.24
1-2-1
4.07
RWDM 47
3-1-0
6.76
0-3-1
6.59
3-0-1
6.22
0-0-4
6.55
 —
1-0-3
5.18
1-0-3
4.05
2-1-1
5.19
Seraing
4-0-0
6.81
2-1-1
6.75
2-1-1
6.37
4-0-0
6.65
3-0-1
5.83
 —
1-0-3
3.96
0-2-2
5.06
Union SG
3-1-0
7.70
3-1-0
7.90
4-0-0
7.60
4-0-0
7.88
3-0-1
7.02
3-0-1
7.09
 —
2-2-0
6.54
Westerlo
1-3-0
7.73
3-1-0
6.90
2-2-0
6.70
1-2-1
6.98
1-1-2
5.84
2-2-0
5.96
0-2-2
4.50
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.95 +12.3
Allowed 0.86 -13.1
Differential 0.98 +6.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%7.14%6.25%2.68%2.23%0.89%23.66%
17.14%12.50%6.25%4.46%0.45%0.45%31.25%
26.25%6.25%4.46%2.23%2.68%0.89%22.77%
32.68%4.46%2.23%—1.34%0.45%11.16%
42.23%0.45%2.68%1.34%0.89%—7.59%
5+0.89%0.45%0.89%0.45%—0.89%3.57%
Total23.66%31.25%22.77%11.16%7.59%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.54 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 1.92
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%—10.71%3.57%32.14%
1—21.43%14.29%14.29%—3.57%53.57%
27.14%—3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.29 -1.46
SD 0.67 1.56 1.88
CV 0.82 0.68 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%—25.00%
17.14%17.86%————25.00%
2—10.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%—28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
43.57%—3.57%3.57%3.57%—14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.64 -0.04
SD 1.34 1.37 1.86
CV 0.84 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%17.86%7.14%—3.57%53.57%
1—3.57%10.71%7.14%——21.43%
2—3.57%—3.57%—3.57%10.71%
3—7.14%——3.57%—10.71%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total10.71%28.57%32.14%17.86%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.96 -1.07
SD 1.20 1.32 1.61
CV 1.34 0.67 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
110.71%10.71%10.71%3.57%——35.71%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
3—7.14%7.14%——3.57%17.86%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+——3.57%——3.57%7.14%
Total17.86%32.14%32.14%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.46 +0.29
SD 1.38 1.29 1.58
CV 0.79 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
17.14%10.71%7.14%———25.00%
210.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%32.14%
33.57%10.71%——3.57%—17.86%
4————3.57%—3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%7.14%17.86%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.75 -0.18
SD 1.14 1.53 1.81
CV 0.72 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%——25.00%
121.43%7.14%—3.57%——32.14%
2—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
3—3.57%3.57%—3.57%—10.71%
43.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
5+—3.57%3.57%3.57%—3.57%14.29%
Total32.14%21.43%21.43%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.29 +0.46
SD 1.86 1.30 1.86
CV 1.06 1.01 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
13.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
221.43%14.29%7.14%———42.86%
33.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
43.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%32.14%21.43%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.46 0.86 +1.61
SD 1.37 0.89 1.66
CV 0.56 1.04 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%————14.29%
17.14%25.00%7.14%3.57%3.57%—46.43%
27.14%7.14%10.71%———25.00%
37.14%—————7.14%
43.57%——3.57%——7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.07 +0.39
SD 1.07 1.09 1.47
CV 0.73 1.01 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Union SG 70 51.65 +18.35
2 Lommel 43 31.37 +11.63
3 Seraing 52 42.85 +9.15
4 Deinze 39 32.47 +6.53
5 Westerlo 43 44.64 -1.64

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lierse Kempenzonen 16 35.17 -19.17
2 Club NXT 13 31.06 -18.06
3 RWDM 47 35 40.51 -5.51
4 Westerlo 43 44.64 -1.64
5 Deinze 39 32.47 +6.53

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union SG 11 Dec 5 – Mar 13 1 in 379
2 Seraing 4 Sep 29 – Oct 25 1 in 44
3 Deinze 3 Sep 12 – Oct 4 1 in 40
4 Lommel 3 Dec 18 – Jan 29 1 in 18
5 Westerlo 3 Nov 28 – Dec 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 9 Nov 27 – Feb 26 1 in 689
2 Lierse Kempenzonen 6 Nov 14 – Dec 19 1 in 175
3 RWDM 47 3 Aug 29 – Sep 18 1 in 46
4 Seraing 2 Sep 13 – Sep 19 1 in 6
5 Westerlo 2 Oct 31 – Nov 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union SG 16 Dec 5 – Apr 25 1 in 31
2 Deinze 5 Sep 12 – Oct 23 1 in 23
3 Lommel 4 Oct 30 – Nov 29 1 in 12
4 Westerlo 7 Nov 9 – Dec 11 1 in 12
5 Seraing 5 Feb 28 – Mar 21 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 14 Nov 27 – Apr 2 1 in 64
2 Lierse Kempenzonen 12 Jan 31 – Apr 25 1 in 50
3 RWDM 47 8 Mar 3 – Apr 17 1 in 50
4 Westerlo 6 Mar 3 – Apr 9 1 in 50
5 Seraing 3 Nov 7 – Nov 22 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Union SG62.37%21.21%9.41%4.14%1.93%0.65%0.23%0.06%
Seraing11.25%23.21%23.85%18.21%11.55%6.87%3.58%1.48%
Westerlo16.75%29.01%22.83%15.03%8.38%4.54%2.42%1.04%
Lommel0.48%1.68%4.77%9.03%14.84%19.91%22.85%26.44%
Deinze0.85%2.88%6.24%10.25%15.40%19.94%21.79%22.65%
RWDM 476.42%15.59%19.75%20.57%16.25%11.11%6.82%3.49%
Lierse Kempenzonen1.60%4.91%9.06%15.44%19.10%18.70%17.73%13.46%
Club NXT0.28%1.51%4.09%7.33%12.55%18.28%24.58%31.38%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.96%
Clear Edge
47.32%22.32%30.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge
146 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
056.33400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.39+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Union SG, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.64/gm
Comfortable
00.231/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.38 * Some Luck: 5.38 to 8.07 * Lucky: 8.07 to 10.76 * Wild Swing: 10.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.54 * Off: 1.54 to 2.06 * Way Off: 2.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.69 * A Surprise: 0.69 to 1.1 * Several Surprises: 1.1 to 1.51 * Many Surprises: 1.51 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
12.87 points
Wild Swing
06.7217
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Close
01.293
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.79%
Union SG
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.14%
Club NXT
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.32
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
3.73
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.13
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.79
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.91
Very Underconfident
01.002.18004
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.126
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Lost promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Union SG 62.52% 21.41% 16.01% 0.06%
Westerlo 16.80% 29.39% 52.77% 1.04%
RWDM 47 6.44% 15.82% 74.25% 3.49%
Seraing — 100% — —
Lierse Kempenzonen 1.61% 5.08% 79.85% 13.46%
Deinze 0.86% 2.96% 73.53% 22.65%
Lommel 0.48% 1.70% 71.38% 26.44%
Club NXT — — 68.62% 31.38%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-08-21 Union SG L 0-2 1435 1539 26.12% 23.85% 50.03% -9.0 0
2020-08-21 @ Deinze W 2-0 1539 1435 50.03% 23.85% 26.12% +9.0 3
2020-08-22 Club NXT W 2-0 1533 1533 39.59% 24.73% 35.69% +11.6 3
2020-08-22 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1533 1533 35.69% 24.73% 39.59% -11.6 0
2020-08-23 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1523 1533 38.06% 24.75% 37.19% -0.0 1
2020-08-23 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1533 1523 37.19% 24.75% 38.06% +0.0 1
2020-08-24 Seraing L 3-5 1416 1499 28.43% 24.21% 47.36% -7.1 0
2020-08-24 @ Lommel W 5-3 1499 1416 47.36% 24.21% 28.43% +7.1 3
2020-08-28 Deinze W 3-2 1506 1426 50.52% 23.78% 25.70% +4.2 6
2020-08-28 @ Seraing L 2-3 1426 1506 25.70% 23.78% 50.52% -4.2 0
2020-08-29 RWDM 47 W 4-2 1533 1545 37.93% 24.75% 37.33% +9.3 4
2020-08-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-4 1545 1533 37.33% 24.75% 37.93% -9.3 3
2020-08-30 Lommel D 2-2 1522 1408 54.59% 23.02% 22.39% -0.9 1
2020-08-30 @ Club NXT D 2-2 1408 1522 22.39% 23.02% 54.59% +0.9 1
2020-08-30 Westerlo D 0-0 1548 1523 43.14% 24.58% 32.28% -0.4 4
2020-08-30 @ Union SG D 0-0 1523 1548 32.28% 24.58% 43.14% +0.4 2
2020-09-11 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1409 1543 23.08% 23.21% 53.71% +7.7 4
2020-09-11 @ Lommel L 2-3 1543 1409 53.71% 23.21% 23.08% -7.7 4
2020-09-12 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1422 1536 25.04% 23.65% 51.31% +8.2 3
2020-09-12 @ Deinze L 0-1 1536 1422 51.31% 23.65% 25.04% -8.2 3
2020-09-13 Union SG D 1-1 1521 1548 35.79% 24.73% 39.48% +0.1 2
2020-09-13 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1548 1521 39.48% 24.73% 35.79% -0.1 5
2020-09-13 Westerlo L 0-2 1511 1523 37.79% 24.75% 37.46% -12.1 6
2020-09-13 @ Seraing W 2-0 1523 1511 37.46% 24.75% 37.79% +12.2 5
2020-09-18 Lommel L 0-1 1527 1417 54.25% 23.10% 22.66% -8.6 3
2020-09-18 @ RWDM 47 W 1-0 1417 1527 22.66% 23.10% 54.25% +8.6 7
2020-09-19 Seraing W 3-2 1547 1498 46.38% 24.31% 29.31% +4.7 8
2020-09-19 @ Union SG L 2-3 1498 1547 29.31% 24.31% 46.38% -4.7 6
2020-09-20 Club NXT W 2-1 1535 1521 41.58% 24.66% 33.76% +5.6 7
2020-09-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1521 1535 33.76% 24.66% 41.58% -5.6 2
2020-09-26 Union SG W 3-1 1519 1552 34.87% 24.71% 40.42% +11.1 6
2020-09-26 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1552 1519 40.42% 24.71% 34.87% -11.1 8
2020-09-27 Deinze L 1-2 1426 1430 38.98% 24.74% 36.28% -6.2 7
2020-09-27 @ Lommel W 2-1 1430 1426 36.28% 24.74% 38.98% +6.2 6
2020-09-29 Seraing L 2-5 1541 1494 46.11% 24.34% 29.55% -15.1 7
2020-09-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-2 1494 1541 29.55% 24.34% 46.11% +15.1 9
2020-10-02 Club NXT W 6-1 1509 1515 38.63% 24.74% 36.63% +23.0 12
2020-10-02 @ Seraing L 1-6 1515 1509 36.63% 24.74% 38.63% -23.0 2
2020-10-04 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1436 1526 27.75% 24.11% 48.14% +7.4 9
2020-10-04 @ Deinze L 1-2 1526 1436 48.14% 24.11% 27.75% -7.4 7
2020-10-04 Lommel W 4-2 1541 1419 55.59% 22.80% 21.61% +5.9 11
2020-10-04 @ Union SG L 2-4 1419 1541 21.61% 22.80% 55.59% -5.9 7
2020-10-16 Deinze D 1-1 1492 1443 46.40% 24.31% 29.29% -0.6 3
2020-10-16 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1443 1492 29.29% 24.31% 46.40% +0.6 10
2020-10-17 Westerlo D 1-1 1413 1535 24.25% 23.48% 52.27% +1.0 8
2020-10-17 @ Lommel D 1-1 1535 1413 52.27% 23.48% 24.25% -1.0 6
2020-10-18 Seraing L 3-4 1530 1532 39.33% 24.73% 35.94% -5.8 6
2020-10-18 @ RWDM 47 W 4-3 1532 1530 35.94% 24.73% 39.33% +5.8 15
2020-10-18 Union SG L 0-2 1518 1547 35.51% 24.72% 39.77% -11.6 7
2020-10-18 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1547 1518 39.77% 24.72% 35.51% +11.6 14
2020-10-23 Westerlo D 2-2 1444 1534 27.67% 24.10% 48.23% +0.5 11
2020-10-23 @ Deinze D 2-2 1534 1444 48.23% 24.10% 27.67% -0.5 7
2020-10-25 Club NXT W 6-0 1559 1492 48.72% 24.04% 27.24% +26.0 17
2020-10-25 @ Union SG L 0-6 1492 1559 27.24% 24.04% 48.72% -26.0 3
2020-10-25 Lommel W 1-0 1538 1414 55.75% 22.76% 21.48% +4.0 18
2020-10-25 @ Seraing L 0-1 1414 1538 21.48% 22.76% 55.75% -4.0 8
2020-10-30 Lommel L 1-3 1507 1410 52.50% 23.44% 24.06% -13.7 7
2020-10-30 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1410 1507 24.06% 23.44% 52.50% +13.7 11
2020-10-31 Union SG L 1-4 1534 1585 32.52% 24.59% 42.89% -13.3 7
2020-10-31 @ Westerlo W 4-1 1585 1534 42.89% 24.59% 32.52% +13.2 20
2020-11-01 RWDM 47 L 0-2 1466 1524 31.56% 24.53% 43.92% -10.6 3
2020-11-01 @ Club NXT W 2-0 1524 1466 43.92% 24.53% 31.56% +10.6 9
2020-11-06 Westerlo W 3-1 1535 1520 41.60% 24.66% 33.74% +9.6 12
2020-11-06 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1520 1535 33.74% 24.66% 41.60% -9.7 7
2020-11-07 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1542 1493 46.33% 24.32% 29.35% -12.3 18
2020-11-07 @ Seraing W 3-1 1493 1542 29.35% 24.32% 46.33% +12.3 10
2020-11-08 Club NXT W 3-1 1424 1455 35.16% 24.71% 40.13% +11.0 14
2020-11-08 @ Lommel L 1-3 1455 1424 40.13% 24.71% 35.16% -11.0 3
2020-11-08 Deinze W 3-0 1598 1444 59.22% 21.87% 18.91% +9.7 23
2020-11-08 @ Union SG L 0-3 1444 1598 18.91% 21.87% 59.22% -9.7 11
2020-11-09 RWDM 47 W 3-0 1511 1544 34.83% 24.70% 40.46% +18.6 10
2020-11-09 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1544 1511 40.46% 24.70% 34.83% -18.6 12
2020-11-14 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1526 1505 42.47% 24.62% 32.91% +10.9 15
2020-11-14 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1505 1526 32.91% 24.62% 42.47% -10.9 10
2020-11-14 Westerlo D 1-1 1444 1529 28.27% 24.19% 47.55% +0.7 4
2020-11-14 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1529 1444 47.55% 24.19% 28.27% -0.7 11
2020-11-15 Seraing W 3-0 1435 1529 27.19% 24.03% 48.78% +21.6 14
2020-11-15 @ Deinze L 0-3 1529 1435 48.78% 24.03% 27.19% -21.6 18
2020-11-18 Deinze W 3-0 1529 1456 49.46% 23.94% 26.60% +13.3 14
2020-11-18 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1456 1529 26.60% 23.94% 49.46% -13.3 14
2020-11-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1445 1494 32.70% 24.61% 42.69% +13.4 7
2020-11-20 @ Club NXT L 0-2 1494 1445 42.69% 24.61% 32.70% -13.4 10
2020-11-21 Lommel D 1-1 1443 1435 40.71% 24.70% 34.59% -0.2 15
2020-11-21 @ Deinze D 1-1 1435 1443 34.59% 24.70% 40.71% +0.2 15
2020-11-22 RWDM 47 W 2-1 1608 1537 49.27% 23.96% 26.77% +4.6 26
2020-11-22 @ Union SG L 1-2 1537 1608 26.77% 23.96% 49.27% -4.6 15
2020-11-22 Seraing D 1-1 1542 1508 44.41% 24.49% 31.10% -0.5 15
2020-11-22 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1508 1542 31.10% 24.49% 44.41% +0.5 19
2020-11-27 Club NXT W 1-0 1443 1458 37.37% 24.75% 37.88% +6.5 18
2020-11-27 @ Deinze L 0-1 1458 1443 37.88% 24.75% 37.37% -6.5 7
2020-11-28 Westerlo L 0-1 1481 1542 31.26% 24.50% 44.23% -5.6 10
2020-11-28 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1542 1481 44.23% 24.50% 31.26% +5.6 18
2020-11-29 RWDM 47 W 4-0 1435 1532 26.94% 23.99% 49.07% +28.4 18
2020-11-29 @ Lommel L 0-4 1532 1435 49.07% 23.99% 26.94% -28.4 15
2020-11-29 Union SG W 1-0 1508 1612 26.12% 23.85% 50.02% +8.0 22
2020-11-29 @ Seraing L 0-1 1612 1508 50.02% 23.85% 26.12% -8.1 26
2020-12-04 Seraing L 0-4 1452 1516 30.80% 24.46% 44.74% -19.7 7
2020-12-04 @ Club NXT W 4-0 1516 1452 44.74% 24.46% 30.80% +19.7 25
2020-12-05 Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-0 1604 1475 56.40% 22.61% 20.99% +17.3 29
2020-12-05 @ Union SG L 0-5 1475 1604 20.99% 22.61% 56.40% -17.3 10
2020-12-06 Deinze D 1-1 1504 1449 47.10% 24.24% 28.66% -0.6 16
2020-12-06 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1449 1504 28.66% 24.24% 47.10% +0.6 19
2020-12-06 Lommel W 2-1 1547 1464 50.89% 23.72% 25.39% +4.4 21
2020-12-06 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1464 1547 25.39% 23.72% 50.89% -4.4 18
2020-12-11 Club NXT W 2-1 1552 1432 55.31% 22.87% 21.83% +3.8 24
2020-12-11 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1432 1552 21.83% 22.87% 55.31% -3.9 7
2020-12-12 Deinze L 3-4 1458 1450 40.75% 24.69% 34.56% -6.0 10
2020-12-12 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 4-3 1450 1458 34.56% 24.69% 40.75% +6.0 22
2020-12-13 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1536 1503 44.17% 24.51% 31.32% -7.3 25
2020-12-13 @ Seraing W 1-0 1503 1536 31.32% 24.51% 44.17% +7.3 19
2020-12-13 Union SG L 0-1 1459 1621 20.46% 22.43% 57.11% -3.8 18
2020-12-13 @ Lommel W 1-0 1621 1459 57.11% 22.43% 20.46% +3.8 32
2020-12-18 Lommel L 0-2 1428 1455 35.72% 24.73% 39.55% -11.6 7
2020-12-18 @ Club NXT W 2-0 1455 1428 39.55% 24.73% 35.72% +11.6 21
2020-12-19 Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1510 1452 47.60% 24.18% 28.22% +5.1 22
2020-12-19 @ RWDM 47 L 0-1 1452 1510 28.22% 24.18% 47.60% -5.1 10
2020-12-20 Seraing D 0-0 1456 1528 29.76% 24.36% 45.87% +0.6 23
2020-12-20 @ Deinze D 0-0 1528 1456 45.87% 24.36% 29.76% -0.6 26
2020-12-20 Westerlo W 2-1 1625 1555 49.13% 23.98% 26.88% +4.6 35
2020-12-20 @ Union SG L 1-2 1555 1625 26.88% 23.98% 49.13% -4.6 24
2021-01-22 Club NXT W 3-1 1447 1417 43.84% 24.53% 31.62% +9.2 13
2021-01-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1417 1447 31.62% 24.53% 43.84% -9.2 7
2021-01-23 Union SG L 2-4 1457 1630 19.51% 22.10% 58.40% -5.3 23
2021-01-23 @ Deinze W 4-2 1630 1457 58.40% 22.10% 19.51% +5.4 38
2021-01-24 RWDM 47 W 3-2 1467 1515 32.84% 24.61% 42.54% +6.3 24
2021-01-24 @ Lommel L 2-3 1515 1467 42.54% 24.61% 32.84% -6.3 22
2021-01-24 Seraing W 4-3 1551 1528 42.81% 24.60% 32.59% +5.0 27
2021-01-24 @ Westerlo L 3-4 1528 1551 32.59% 24.60% 42.81% -5.0 26
2021-01-29 Deinze W 4-2 1473 1451 42.72% 24.60% 32.67% +8.4 27
2021-01-29 @ Lommel L 2-4 1451 1473 32.67% 24.60% 42.72% -8.4 23
2021-01-30 Union SG L 0-2 1509 1635 23.82% 23.38% 52.80% -8.3 22
2021-01-30 @ RWDM 47 W 2-0 1635 1509 52.80% 23.38% 23.82% +8.3 41
2021-01-31 Club NXT W 2-1 1523 1408 54.82% 22.97% 22.21% +3.9 29
2021-01-31 @ Seraing L 1-2 1408 1523 22.21% 22.97% 54.82% -3.9 7
2021-01-31 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1556 1456 52.91% 23.36% 23.73% +8.3 30
2021-01-31 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1456 1556 23.73% 23.36% 52.91% -8.3 13
2021-02-05 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1644 1448 63.76% 20.42% 15.81% +2.8 44
2021-02-05 @ Union SG L 1-2 1448 1644 15.81% 20.42% 63.76% -2.8 13
2021-02-06 Lommel FW 1527 1482 45.83% 24.37% 29.80% +0.0 32
2021-02-06 @ Seraing FL 1482 1527 29.80% 24.37% 45.83% +0.0 27
2021-02-14 Club NXT W 3-1 1646 1404 68.41% 18.63% 12.96% +3.9 47
2021-02-14 @ Union SG L 1-3 1404 1646 12.96% 18.63% 68.41% -3.9 7
2021-02-14 Deinze D 1-1 1445 1443 39.93% 24.72% 35.35% -0.2 14
2021-02-14 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1443 1445 35.35% 24.72% 39.93% +0.2 24
2021-02-15 Lommel D 1-1 1564 1482 50.73% 23.74% 25.52% -0.9 31
2021-02-15 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1482 1564 25.52% 23.74% 50.73% +0.9 28
2021-02-19 Union SG L 0-2 1527 1650 24.08% 23.45% 52.47% -8.4 32
2021-02-19 @ Seraing W 2-0 1650 1527 52.47% 23.45% 24.08% +8.4 50
2021-02-20 Westerlo W 2-1 1501 1563 31.03% 24.48% 44.49% +6.9 25
2021-02-20 @ RWDM 47 L 1-2 1563 1501 44.49% 24.48% 31.03% -6.9 31
2021-02-21 Club NXT W 4-0 1443 1400 45.60% 24.39% 30.02% +19.3 27
2021-02-21 @ Deinze L 0-4 1400 1443 30.02% 24.39% 45.60% -19.2 7
2021-02-21 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1483 1445 44.86% 24.45% 30.69% +5.2 31
2021-02-21 @ Lommel L 1-2 1445 1483 30.69% 24.45% 44.86% -5.2 14
2021-02-26 RWDM 47 L 1-3 1380 1508 23.70% 23.36% 52.94% -7.2 7
2021-02-26 @ Club NXT W 3-1 1508 1380 52.94% 23.36% 23.70% +7.2 28
2021-02-27 Lommel W 3-2 1659 1488 61.14% 21.30% 17.57% +2.9 53
2021-02-27 @ Union SG L 2-3 1488 1659 17.57% 21.30% 61.14% -3.0 31
2021-02-28 Deinze W 4-0 1556 1462 52.23% 23.49% 24.28% +16.1 34
2021-02-28 @ Westerlo L 0-4 1462 1556 24.28% 23.49% 52.23% -16.1 27
2021-02-28 Seraing L 0-1 1440 1518 29.05% 24.28% 46.67% -5.2 14
2021-02-28 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1518 1440 46.67% 24.28% 29.05% +5.2 35
2021-03-03 Seraing L 2-4 1515 1524 38.34% 24.75% 36.91% -9.5 28
2021-03-03 @ RWDM 47 W 4-2 1524 1515 36.91% 24.75% 38.34% +9.5 38
2021-03-03 Westerlo D 1-1 1373 1572 17.50% 21.26% 61.24% +1.6 8
2021-03-03 @ Club NXT D 1-1 1572 1373 61.24% 21.26% 17.50% -1.6 35
2021-03-05 Union SG L 1-3 1435 1662 15.55% 20.27% 64.18% -4.8 14
2021-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1662 1435 64.18% 20.27% 15.55% +4.8 56
2021-03-06 Deinze D 1-1 1505 1446 47.75% 24.16% 28.09% -0.7 29
2021-03-06 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1446 1505 28.09% 24.16% 47.75% +0.7 28
2021-03-07 Club NXT W 2-1 1485 1375 54.18% 23.11% 22.71% +4.0 34
2021-03-07 @ Lommel L 1-2 1375 1485 22.71% 23.11% 54.18% -4.0 8
2021-03-07 Westerlo D 1-1 1533 1571 34.27% 24.68% 41.04% +0.2 39
2021-03-07 @ Seraing D 1-1 1571 1533 41.04% 24.68% 34.27% -0.2 36
2021-03-12 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1447 1430 41.98% 24.64% 33.38% +16.0 31
2021-03-12 @ Deinze L 0-3 1430 1447 33.38% 24.64% 41.98% -16.0 14
2021-03-13 RWDM 47 W 2-1 1666 1505 60.15% 21.60% 18.25% +3.2 59
2021-03-13 @ Union SG L 1-2 1505 1666 18.25% 21.60% 60.15% -3.2 29
2021-03-14 Seraing L 0-1 1371 1533 20.43% 22.43% 57.14% -3.8 8
2021-03-14 @ Club NXT W 1-0 1533 1371 57.14% 22.43% 20.43% +3.8 42
2021-03-14 Westerlo W 1-0 1489 1571 28.68% 24.24% 47.08% +7.7 37
2021-03-14 @ Lommel L 0-1 1571 1489 47.08% 24.24% 28.68% -7.7 36
2021-03-18 RWDM 47 D 4-4 1463 1501 34.14% 24.68% 41.18% +0.1 32
2021-03-18 @ Deinze D 4-4 1501 1463 41.18% 24.68% 34.14% -0.1 30
2021-03-19 Union SG D 2-2 1563 1670 25.84% 23.80% 50.36% +0.6 37
2021-03-19 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1670 1563 50.36% 23.80% 25.84% -0.6 60
2021-03-20 Lommel L 0-1 1414 1497 28.54% 24.22% 47.24% -5.2 14
2021-03-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1497 1414 47.24% 24.22% 28.54% +5.2 40
2021-03-21 Deinze L 2-4 1367 1463 27.04% 24.01% 48.96% -7.2 8
2021-03-21 @ Club NXT W 4-2 1463 1367 48.96% 24.01% 27.04% +7.2 35
2021-03-21 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1537 1501 44.60% 24.48% 30.93% +5.5 45
2021-03-21 @ Seraing L 0-1 1501 1537 30.93% 24.48% 44.60% -5.5 30
2021-04-02 Club NXT D 1-1 1496 1360 57.25% 22.40% 20.35% -1.3 31
2021-04-02 @ RWDM 47 D 1-1 1360 1496 20.35% 22.40% 57.25% +1.3 9
2021-04-03 Seraing W 2-0 1669 1543 56.12% 22.68% 21.20% +7.5 63
2021-04-03 @ Union SG L 0-2 1543 1669 21.20% 22.68% 56.12% -7.5 45
2021-04-04 Westerlo D 0-0 1409 1564 21.09% 22.64% 56.27% +1.4 15
2021-04-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1564 1409 56.27% 22.64% 21.09% -1.4 38
2021-04-05 Lommel W 2-1 1470 1502 35.10% 24.71% 40.19% +6.4 38
2021-04-05 @ Deinze L 1-2 1502 1470 40.19% 24.71% 35.10% -6.4 40
2021-04-09 RWDM 47 D 2-2 1562 1494 48.85% 24.02% 27.13% -0.6 39
2021-04-09 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1494 1562 27.13% 24.02% 48.85% +0.6 32
2021-04-10 Deinze W 1-0 1535 1477 47.67% 24.17% 28.16% +5.1 48
2021-04-10 @ Seraing L 0-1 1477 1535 28.16% 24.17% 47.67% -5.1 38
2021-04-11 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1361 1410 32.78% 24.61% 42.61% +13.3 12
2021-04-11 @ Club NXT L 0-2 1410 1361 42.61% 24.61% 32.78% -13.3 15
2021-04-11 Union SG L 0-2 1495 1676 18.88% 21.86% 59.26% -6.7 40
2021-04-11 @ Lommel W 2-0 1676 1495 59.26% 21.86% 18.88% +6.7 66
2021-04-16 Union SG L 0-4 1375 1683 11.01% 17.09% 71.90% -7.1 12
2021-04-16 @ Club NXT W 4-0 1683 1375 71.90% 17.09% 11.01% +7.1 69
2021-04-17 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1540 1397 58.13% 22.17% 19.70% -1.6 49
2021-04-17 @ Seraing D 0-0 1397 1540 19.70% 22.17% 58.13% +1.6 16
2021-04-17 Lommel L 2-5 1495 1489 40.48% 24.70% 34.81% -13.6 32
2021-04-17 @ RWDM 47 W 5-2 1489 1495 34.81% 24.70% 40.48% +13.6 43
2021-04-19 Westerlo L 0-1 1471 1562 27.69% 24.11% 48.20% -5.0 38
2021-04-19 @ Deinze W 1-0 1562 1471 48.20% 24.11% 27.69% +5.0 42
2021-04-24 Club NXT D 1-1 1567 1367 64.12% 20.29% 15.58% -1.8 43
2021-04-24 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1367 1567 15.58% 20.29% 64.12% +1.8 13
2021-04-24 Seraing L 1-3 1502 1539 34.44% 24.69% 40.87% -9.8 43
2021-04-24 @ Lommel W 3-1 1539 1502 40.87% 24.69% 34.44% +9.8 52
2021-04-25 Deinze D 2-2 1690 1466 66.60% 19.36% 14.04% -1.5 70
2021-04-25 @ Union SG D 2-2 1466 1690 14.04% 19.36% 66.60% +1.5 39
2021-04-25 RWDM 47 L 0-3 1398 1481 28.50% 24.22% 47.29% -14.1 16
2021-04-25 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1481 1398 47.29% 24.22% 28.50% +14.1 35

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2021-05-01 Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1549 1564 37.41% 24.75% 37.84% +0.0 0-0-1
2021-05-01 @ Seraing D 1-1 1564 1549 37.84% 24.75% 37.41% -0.0 0-0-1
2021-05-08 Seraing L 2-5 1564 1549 41.73% 24.66% 33.62% -13.9 0-1-1
2021-05-08 @ Waasland-Beveren W 5-2 1549 1564 33.62% 24.66% 41.73% +13.9 1-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-09-18 22.66% Lommel 1417 1 @ RWDM 47 1527 0
2 2020-09-11 23.08% @ Lommel 1409 3 Lierse Kempenzonen 1543 2
3 2020-10-30 24.06% Lommel 1410 3 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1507 1
4 2020-09-12 25.04% @ Deinze 1422 1 RWDM 47 1536 0
5 2020-11-29 26.12% @ Seraing 1508 1 Union SG 1612 0
6 2020-11-29 26.94% @ Lommel 1435 4 RWDM 47 1532 0
7 2020-11-15 27.19% @ Deinze 1435 3 Seraing 1529 0
8 2020-10-04 27.75% @ Deinze 1436 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1526 1
9 2021-03-14 28.68% @ Lommel 1489 1 Westerlo 1571 0
10 2020-11-07 29.35% Lierse Kempenzonen 1493 3 @ Seraing 1542 1
11 2020-09-29 29.55% Seraing 1494 5 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1541 2
12 2021-02-20 31.03% @ RWDM 47 1501 2 Westerlo 1563 1
13 2020-12-13 31.32% RWDM 47 1503 1 @ Seraing 1536 0
14 2020-11-20 32.70% @ Club NXT 1445 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1494 0
15 2021-04-11 32.78% @ Club NXT 1361 2 Lierse Kempenzonen 1410 0
16 2021-01-24 32.84% @ Lommel 1467 3 RWDM 47 1515 2
17 2020-12-12 34.56% Deinze 1450 4 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1458 3
18 2021-04-17 34.81% Lommel 1489 5 @ RWDM 47 1495 2
19 2020-11-09 34.83% @ Westerlo 1511 3 RWDM 47 1544 0
20 2020-09-26 34.87% @ RWDM 47 1519 3 Union SG 1552 1
21 2021-04-05 35.10% @ Deinze 1470 2 Lommel 1502 1
22 2020-11-08 35.16% @ Lommel 1424 3 Club NXT 1455 1
23 2020-10-18 35.94% Seraing 1532 4 @ RWDM 47 1530 3
24 2020-09-27 36.28% Deinze 1430 2 @ Lommel 1426 1
25 2021-03-03 36.91% Seraing 1524 4 @ RWDM 47 1515 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-29 28.38 @ Lommel 4 1435 26.94% RWDM 47 0 1532 49.07% 23.99%
2 2020-10-25 26.00 @ Union SG 6 1559 48.72% Club NXT 0 1492 27.24% 24.04%
3 2020-10-02 22.98 @ Seraing 6 1509 38.63% Club NXT 1 1515 36.63% 24.74%
4 2020-11-15 21.61 @ Deinze 3 1435 27.19% Seraing 0 1529 48.78% 24.03%
5 2020-12-04 19.67 Seraing 4 1516 44.74% @ Club NXT 0 1452 30.80% 24.46%
6 2021-02-21 19.26 @ Deinze 4 1443 45.60% Club NXT 0 1400 30.02% 24.39%
7 2020-11-09 18.60 @ Westerlo 3 1511 34.83% RWDM 47 0 1544 40.46% 24.70%
8 2020-12-05 17.34 @ Union SG 5 1604 56.40% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1475 20.99% 22.61%
9 2021-02-28 16.07 @ Westerlo 4 1556 52.23% Deinze 0 1462 24.28% 23.49%
10 2021-03-12 16.05 @ Deinze 3 1447 41.98% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1430 33.38% 24.64%
11 2020-09-29 15.07 Seraing 5 1494 29.55% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1541 46.11% 24.34%
12 2021-04-25 14.13 RWDM 47 3 1481 47.29% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1398 28.50% 24.22%
13 2020-10-30 13.70 Lommel 3 1410 24.06% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1507 52.50% 23.44%
14 2021-04-17 13.59 Lommel 5 1489 34.81% @ RWDM 47 2 1495 40.48% 24.70%
15 2020-11-20 13.36 @ Club NXT 2 1445 32.70% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1494 42.69% 24.61%
16 2021-04-11 13.34 @ Club NXT 2 1361 32.78% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1410 42.61% 24.61%
17 2020-11-18 13.32 @ Westerlo 3 1529 49.46% Deinze 0 1456 26.60% 23.94%
18 2020-10-31 13.26 Union SG 4 1585 42.89% @ Westerlo 1 1534 32.52% 24.59%
19 2020-11-07 12.35 Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1493 29.35% @ Seraing 1 1542 46.33% 24.32%
20 2020-09-13 12.15 Westerlo 2 1523 37.46% @ Seraing 0 1511 37.79% 24.75%
21 2020-12-18 11.65 Lommel 2 1455 39.55% @ Club NXT 0 1428 35.72% 24.73%
22 2020-08-22 11.64 @ RWDM 47 2 1533 39.59% Club NXT 0 1533 35.69% 24.73%
23 2020-10-18 11.59 Union SG 2 1547 39.77% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1518 35.51% 24.72%
24 2020-09-26 11.08 @ RWDM 47 3 1519 34.87% Union SG 1 1552 40.42% 24.71%
25 2020-11-08 11.02 @ Lommel 3 1424 35.16% Club NXT 1 1455 40.13% 24.71%