2022-23 Challenger Pro League Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

RWD Molenbeek

69 pts

Relegated

Excelsior Virton

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

RWD Molenbeek

34.02 points above expected

69 points · 34.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Genk II

5.22 points below expected

26 points · 31.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek 22 14 4 4 46 41 21 +20
2 Beveren 22 12 7 3 43 52 25 +27
3 Beerschot 22 12 2 8 38 33 28 +5
4 Club NXT 22 10 6 6 36 38 30 +8
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 22 11 3 8 36 42 42 0
6 Anderlecht II 22 9 7 6 34 42 35 +7
7 Lommel 22 10 2 10 32 33 36 -3
8 Deinze 22 9 3 10 30 29 33 -4
9 Genk II 22 5 5 12 20 28 40 -12
10 Dender 22 5 4 13 19 27 40 -13
11 Standard Liege II 22 4 7 11 19 25 43 -18
12 Excelsior Virton 22 2 8 12 14 21 38 -17
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek Promoted 32 21 6 5 69 65 29 +36 34.98 +34.02
2 Beveren 32 20 8 4 68 76 34 +42 36.03 +31.97
3 Lommel 32 16 3 13 51 53 46 +7 30.30 +20.70
4 Club NXT 32 14 7 11 49 51 48 +3 25.97 +23.03
5 Deinze 32 15 4 13 49 49 47 +2 30.05 +18.95
6 Beerschot 32 15 4 13 49 43 41 +2 31.06 +17.94
7 Lierse Kempenzonen 32 14 4 14 46 53 59 -6 27.84 +18.16
8 Dender 32 11 6 15 39 41 47 -6 27.96 +11.04
9 Anderlecht II 32 9 10 13 37 46 56 -10 37.59 -0.59
10 Standard Liege II 32 5 12 15 27 31 60 -29 32.20 -5.20
11 Genk II 32 6 8 18 26 36 58 -22 31.22 -5.22
12 Excelsior Virton Relegated 32 5 10 17 25 32 51 -19 20.31 +4.69

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Beveren 1734 68 36.03 +31.97 88.7% 15 26 32 36 40 46 57
RWD Molenbeek 1726 69 34.98 +34.02 97.2% 13 25 31 35 39 45 55
Lommel 1584 51 30.30 +20.70 64.1% 9 20 26 30 34 40 53
Deinze 1582 49 30.05 +18.95 53.5% 9 20 26 30 34 40 52
Beerschot 1576 49 31.06 +17.94 88.9% 8 21 27 31 35 41 55
Dender 1550 39 27.96 +11.04 7.8% 7 18 24 28 32 38 51
Club NXT 1548 49 25.97 +23.03 95.8% 6 16 22 26 30 36 48
Lierse Kempenzonen 1542 46 27.84 +18.16 92.1% 5 18 24 28 32 38 52
Anderlecht II 1538 37 37.59 -0.59 30.5% 16 27 34 38 42 48 59
Genk II 1473 26 31.22 -5.22 3.7% 10 21 27 31 35 41 57
Standard Liege II 1464 27 32.20 -5.20 1.6% 10 22 28 32 36 42 58
Excelsior Virton 1415 25 20.31 +4.69 15.2% 2 12 16 20 24 30 45

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AI BEE BEV CN DEI DEN EV GI LK LOM RM SLI
Anderlecht II
1-1-2
6.31
0-1-3
4.94
0-3-1
6.84
1-1-0
3.22
0-0-2
3.61
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
3.48
1-2-1
6.55
1-1-0
3.28
0-1-3
5.05
2-0-0
3.07
Beerschot
2-1-1
4.75
1-0-3
4.39
3-0-1
5.87
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-3
6.20
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-3
4.31
1-1-0
2.68
Beveren
3-1-0
6.15
3-0-1
6.70
2-1-1
7.48
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.56
0-2-0
4.07
1-1-0
3.54
4-0-0
7.13
1-0-1
3.12
1-2-1
5.65
1-1-0
3.14
Club NXT
1-3-0
4.26
1-0-3
5.19
1-1-2
3.64
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
2.34
2-0-2
5.85
2-0-0
2.43
2-0-2
3.85
0-2-0
2.38
Deinze
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-2
6.17
3-1-0
7.54
2-1-1
5.70
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-2
5.44
0-0-2
2.47
4-0-0
5.74
Dender
2-0-0
1.94
0-1-1
2.52
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-2
4.88
2-1-1
7.14
3-0-1
5.03
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-2
5.14
0-0-2
2.32
0-3-1
5.35
Excelsior Virton
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.04
0-2-0
1.51
0-1-1
2.22
0-1-3
3.57
1-1-2
3.96
2-1-1
3.71
0-2-0
2.04
1-0-3
3.74
0-1-1
1.65
1-1-2
3.78
Genk II
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
3.19
1-1-2
5.36
1-0-3
6.03
1-1-2
7.40
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-4
5.70
1-1-0
2.34
0-4-0
5.77
Lierse Kempenzonen
1-2-1
4.52
3-0-1
4.85
0-0-4
3.96
2-0-2
5.21
1-0-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.87
0-2-0
3.51
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
2.63
0-0-4
3.95
2-0-0
2.24
Lommel
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
3.10
2-1-1
5.61
2-1-1
5.92
3-0-1
7.36
4-0-0
5.36
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-2
5.80
RWD Molenbeek
3-1-0
6.04
3-1-0
6.77
1-2-1
5.40
2-0-2
7.25
2-0-0
3.06
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.93
0-1-1
3.19
4-0-0
7.14
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
3.13
Standard Liege II
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.40
0-2-0
3.16
0-0-4
5.31
1-3-0
5.71
2-1-1
7.32
0-4-0
5.29
0-0-2
3.30
2-0-2
5.26
0-0-2
2.42

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.88 +10.5
Allowed 0.72 -12.7
Differential 0.94 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.69%7.81%5.47%2.86%1.30%0.78%22.92%
17.81%8.33%8.33%4.17%2.86%0.52%32.03%
25.47%8.33%7.29%3.91%0.52%0.26%25.78%
32.86%4.17%3.91%1.04%0.52%12.50%
41.30%2.86%0.52%0.52%5.21%
5+0.78%0.52%0.26%1.56%
Total22.92%32.03%25.78%12.50%5.21%1.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.83
CV 0.81 0.81
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%9.38%6.25%28.12%
13.12%12.50%6.25%21.88%
26.25%3.12%15.62%3.12%28.12%
33.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%21.88%
4
5+
Total18.75%18.75%43.75%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.75 -0.31
SD 1.13 1.22 1.77
CV 0.79 0.70
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%28.12%
112.50%6.25%9.38%28.12%
26.25%12.50%3.12%6.25%28.12%
33.12%3.12%6.25%12.50%
43.12%3.12%
5+
Total28.12%31.25%28.12%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.28 +0.06
SD 1.12 1.08 1.72
CV 0.84 0.85
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%9.38%
16.25%6.25%3.12%15.62%
29.38%9.38%15.62%3.12%37.50%
39.38%3.12%12.50%
43.12%12.50%15.62%
5+3.12%3.12%3.12%9.38%
Total34.38%34.38%21.88%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.38 1.06 +1.31
SD 1.43 0.98 1.86
CV 0.60 0.92
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%18.75%
16.25%3.12%6.25%6.25%3.12%25.00%
26.25%18.75%9.38%6.25%40.62%
33.12%3.12%3.12%9.38%
43.12%3.12%6.25%
5+
Total21.88%37.50%15.62%18.75%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.50 +0.09
SD 1.10 1.22 1.59
CV 0.69 0.81
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%9.38%21.88%
16.25%6.25%9.38%3.12%9.38%34.38%
23.12%15.62%3.12%21.88%
33.12%3.12%9.38%15.62%
43.12%3.12%
5+3.12%3.12%
Total21.88%34.38%28.12%6.25%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.47 +0.06
SD 1.27 1.19 1.88
CV 0.83 0.81
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%18.75%3.12%25.00%
19.38%15.62%3.12%6.25%34.38%
29.38%9.38%9.38%3.12%31.25%
33.12%3.12%6.25%
43.12%3.12%
5+
Total25.00%43.75%6.25%12.50%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.47 -0.19
SD 1.02 1.41 1.62
CV 0.80 0.96
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%3.12%3.12%31.25%
16.25%15.62%12.50%15.62%50.00%
23.12%6.25%9.38%
33.12%3.12%6.25%
43.12%3.12%
5+
Total12.50%40.62%21.88%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.59 -0.59
SD 0.98 1.01 1.13
CV 0.98 0.63
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%34.38%
16.25%9.38%9.38%6.25%31.25%
23.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%25.00%
33.12%3.12%6.25%
43.12%3.12%
5+
Total15.62%21.88%34.38%21.88%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.81 -0.69
SD 1.07 1.15 1.55
CV 0.95 0.63
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%21.88%
16.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%25.00%
29.38%6.25%6.25%6.25%28.12%
36.25%6.25%3.12%15.62%
43.12%6.25%9.38%
5+
Total18.75%21.88%31.25%18.75%3.12%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.84 -0.19
SD 1.26 1.37 2.01
CV 0.76 0.74
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%21.88%
112.50%6.25%9.38%6.25%34.38%
26.25%6.25%3.12%15.62%
36.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%18.75%
46.25%6.25%
5+3.12%3.12%
Total25.00%31.25%28.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.44 +0.22
SD 1.45 1.24 2.12
CV 0.88 0.86
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%
112.50%15.62%9.38%37.50%
23.12%12.50%3.12%18.75%
36.25%15.62%3.12%25.00%
46.25%3.12%9.38%
5+3.12%3.12%
Total31.25%46.88%21.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.91 +1.12
SD 1.26 0.73 1.68
CV 0.62 0.81
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%28.12%
19.38%12.50%9.38%6.25%6.25%3.12%46.88%
23.12%3.12%15.62%3.12%25.00%
3
4
5+
Total21.88%21.88%28.12%12.50%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.88 -0.91
SD 0.74 1.56 1.69
CV 0.76 0.83
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 RWD Molenbeek 69 34.98 +34.02
2 Beveren 68 36.03 +31.97
3 Club NXT 49 25.97 +23.03
4 Lommel 51 30.30 +20.70
5 Deinze 49 30.05 +18.95

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Genk II 26 31.22 -5.22
2 Standard Liege II 27 32.20 -5.20
3 Anderlecht II 37 37.59 -0.59
4 Excelsior Virton 25 20.31 +4.69
5 Dender 39 27.96 +11.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Beerschot 6 Nov 6 – Dec 11 1 in 203
2 Lommel 5 Nov 18 – Dec 17 1 in 197
3 RWD Molenbeek 7 Dec 11 – Feb 26 1 in 133
4 Club NXT 4 Nov 25 – Jan 20 1 in 107
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 4 Aug 21 – Sep 9 1 in 55

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dender 5 Nov 25 – Jan 24 1 in 240
2 Anderlecht II 5 Mar 3 – Apr 8 1 in 106
3 Deinze 4 Sep 3 – Oct 1 1 in 69
4 Standard Liege II 4 Nov 26 – Dec 17 1 in 64
5 Lommel 3 Oct 8 – Oct 23 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Club NXT 6 Sep 10 – Oct 21 1 in 56
2 Excelsior Virton 5 Aug 12 – Sep 11 1 in 51
3 Dender 7 Mar 10 – May 6 1 in 25
4 Beveren 9 Mar 4 – May 13 1 in 15
5 Anderlecht II 8 Aug 14 – Oct 7 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Genk II 9 Mar 5 – May 12 1 in 143
2 Anderlecht II 10 Feb 26 – May 13 1 in 90
3 Standard Liege II 9 Mar 5 – May 12 1 in 66
4 Dender 8 Nov 25 – Feb 11 1 in 43
5 Excelsior Virton 13 Sep 18 – Dec 17 1 in 39

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
RWD Molenbeek16.55%16.70%14.33%12.57%10.20%7.86%6.86%5.49%4.30%2.84%1.68%0.62%
Beveren22.87%17.58%14.21%11.49%9.20%7.12%5.89%4.40%3.23%2.16%1.34%0.51%
Lommel4.30%6.22%8.17%9.17%10.07%10.24%10.86%9.48%10.04%9.33%8.26%3.86%
Club NXT0.94%2.00%3.28%4.56%5.83%7.12%8.88%10.82%12.78%14.35%16.93%12.51%
Deinze3.92%6.26%7.34%8.80%9.22%10.37%10.32%10.90%10.66%9.78%8.16%4.27%
Beerschot5.90%7.86%8.77%10.03%10.98%10.84%10.57%9.96%8.40%7.62%6.17%2.90%
Lierse Kempenzonen2.15%3.57%4.78%6.10%7.37%8.88%10.40%11.17%11.93%12.81%12.64%8.20%
Dender1.82%3.68%4.81%5.56%7.26%9.05%9.54%10.77%12.29%13.53%13.01%8.68%
Anderlecht II28.94%20.03%14.53%10.62%7.74%5.86%4.10%3.19%2.37%1.47%0.84%0.31%
Standard Liege II6.75%8.32%10.90%10.69%10.80%11.02%9.72%9.36%8.20%6.77%4.97%2.50%
Genk II5.77%7.60%8.61%9.71%10.19%9.96%10.28%10.26%9.38%8.76%6.58%2.90%
Excelsior Virton0.09%0.18%0.27%0.70%1.14%1.68%2.58%4.20%6.42%10.58%19.42%52.74%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.77%
Slight Edge
42.71%21.35%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.56 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
RWD Molenbeek, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.82 * Some Luck: 4.82 to 7.23 * Lucky: 7.23 to 9.64 * Wild Swing: 9.64 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.95 * Close: 1.95 to 2.93 * Off: 2.93 to 3.9 * Way Off: 3.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.27 points
Lucky
06.0215
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.33
Off
02.445
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.24%
RWD Molenbeek
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.60%
Standard Liege II
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.73
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.89
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.11
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.40
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.046
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Won promotion playoff Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beveren 32.27% 67.73%
Anderlecht II 28.91% 71.09%
RWD Molenbeek 21.87% 1.56% 62.75% 13.82%
Beerschot 4.91% 95.09%
Deinze 3.30% 2.90% 52.49% 41.31%
Lommel 3.25% 2.89% 55.06% 38.80%
Standard Liege II 3.07% 2.63% 64.88% 29.42%
Lierse Kempenzonen 1.55% 3.23% 40.77% 54.45%
Dender 0.86% 2.98% 39.78% 56.38%
Excelsior Virton 0.01% 0.93% 6.36% 92.70%
Club NXT 100%
Genk II 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2022-08-12 Lommel L 1-4 1556 1552 43.62% 23.65% 32.72% -18.5 0
2022-08-12 @ Dender W 4-1 1552 1556 32.72% 23.65% 43.62% +18.5 3
2022-08-12 RWD Molenbeek D 1-1 1454 1575 26.94% 23.14% 49.92% +0.9 1
2022-08-12 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1575 1454 49.92% 23.14% 26.94% -0.9 1
2022-08-13 Beveren W 1-0 1550 1563 41.28% 23.75% 34.98% +6.8 3
2022-08-13 @ Beerschot L 0-1 1563 1550 34.98% 23.75% 41.28% -6.8 0
2022-08-13 Standard Liege II D 2-2 1484 1630 24.33% 22.74% 52.93% +0.9 1
2022-08-13 @ Club NXT D 2-2 1630 1484 52.93% 22.74% 24.33% -0.9 1
2022-08-14 Deinze D 0-0 1630 1581 49.60% 23.18% 27.22% -1.0 1
2022-08-14 @ Anderlecht II D 0-0 1581 1630 27.22% 23.18% 49.60% +1.0 1
2022-08-14 Lierse Kempenzonen W 4-1 1630 1528 56.07% 22.20% 21.73% +10.4 3
2022-08-14 @ Genk II L 1-4 1528 1630 21.73% 22.20% 56.07% -10.4 0
2022-08-19 Beerschot D 2-2 1629 1557 52.54% 22.80% 24.66% -0.8 2
2022-08-19 @ Standard Liege II D 2-2 1557 1629 24.66% 22.80% 52.54% +0.8 4
2022-08-19 Genk II W 3-2 1582 1640 34.83% 23.74% 41.43% +6.9 4
2022-08-19 @ Deinze L 2-3 1640 1582 41.43% 23.74% 34.83% -6.9 3
2022-08-20 Dender W 1-0 1574 1538 47.99% 23.34% 28.67% +5.8 4
2022-08-20 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-1 1538 1574 28.67% 23.34% 47.99% -5.8 0
2022-08-20 Excelsior Virton D 2-2 1556 1455 55.97% 22.22% 21.81% -1.0 1
2022-08-20 @ Beveren D 2-2 1455 1556 21.81% 22.22% 55.97% +1.0 2
2022-08-21 Anderlecht II L 0-2 1571 1629 34.90% 23.74% 41.36% -12.7 3
2022-08-21 @ Lommel W 2-0 1629 1571 41.36% 23.74% 34.90% +12.7 4
2022-08-21 Club NXT W 3-1 1517 1485 47.44% 23.39% 29.17% +9.5 3
2022-08-21 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1485 1517 29.17% 23.39% 47.44% -9.5 1
2022-08-26 Lommel L 0-3 1633 1558 52.88% 22.75% 24.37% -25.8 3
2022-08-26 @ Genk II W 3-0 1558 1633 24.37% 22.75% 52.88% +25.8 6
2022-08-26 Standard Liege II L 0-1 1532 1628 29.95% 23.46% 46.58% -6.0 0
2022-08-26 @ Dender W 1-0 1628 1532 46.58% 23.46% 29.95% +6.0 5
2022-08-27 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1589 1456 59.54% 21.46% 19.00% -1.7 5
2022-08-27 @ Deinze D 1-1 1456 1589 19.00% 21.46% 59.54% +1.7 3
2022-08-27 Beveren D 2-2 1641 1555 54.28% 22.52% 23.19% -0.9 5
2022-08-27 @ Anderlecht II D 2-2 1555 1641 23.19% 22.52% 54.28% +0.9 2
2022-08-28 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-3 1557 1527 47.19% 23.41% 29.39% -7.7 4
2022-08-28 @ Beerschot W 3-2 1527 1557 29.39% 23.41% 47.19% +7.6 6
2022-08-28 RWD Molenbeek W 2-1 1476 1580 28.90% 23.37% 47.74% +8.1 4
2022-08-28 @ Club NXT L 1-2 1580 1476 47.74% 23.37% 28.90% -8.2 4
2022-09-02 Anderlecht II D 2-2 1572 1640 33.46% 23.69% 42.85% +0.3 5
2022-09-02 @ RWD Molenbeek D 2-2 1640 1572 42.85% 23.69% 33.46% -0.3 6
2022-09-02 Genk II D 2-2 1634 1607 46.67% 23.46% 29.87% -0.5 6
2022-09-02 @ Standard Liege II D 2-2 1607 1634 29.87% 23.46% 46.67% +0.5 4
2022-09-03 Beerschot L 1-2 1484 1550 33.79% 23.70% 42.51% -6.2 4
2022-09-03 @ Club NXT W 2-1 1550 1484 42.51% 23.70% 33.79% +6.2 7
2022-09-03 Deinze W 4-1 1535 1587 35.65% 23.76% 40.59% +17.5 9
2022-09-03 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-4 1587 1535 40.59% 23.76% 35.65% -17.5 5
2022-09-04 Dender D 1-1 1458 1526 33.43% 23.69% 42.88% +0.4 4
2022-09-04 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1526 1458 42.88% 23.69% 33.43% -0.4 1
2022-09-04 Beveren L 0-2 1584 1556 46.90% 23.44% 29.66% -16.0 6
2022-09-04 @ Lommel W 2-0 1556 1584 29.66% 23.44% 46.90% +16.1 5
2022-09-09 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-3 1526 1552 39.36% 23.78% 36.86% -6.6 1
2022-09-09 @ Dender W 3-2 1552 1526 36.86% 23.78% 39.36% +6.6 12
2022-09-09 Lommel L 0-2 1556 1568 41.38% 23.74% 34.88% -14.5 7
2022-09-09 @ Beerschot W 2-0 1568 1556 34.88% 23.74% 41.38% +14.5 9
2022-09-10 Club NXT D 1-1 1640 1478 62.67% 20.64% 16.69% -1.9 7
2022-09-10 @ Anderlecht II D 1-1 1478 1640 16.69% 20.64% 62.67% +1.9 5
2022-09-10 Standard Liege II W 2-1 1572 1633 34.37% 23.73% 41.91% +7.3 8
2022-09-10 @ Beveren L 1-2 1633 1572 41.91% 23.73% 34.37% -7.3 6
2022-09-11 Excelsior Virton L 0-1 1608 1458 61.37% 21.00% 17.64% -10.7 4
2022-09-11 @ Genk II W 1-0 1458 1608 17.64% 21.00% 61.37% +10.7 7
2022-09-11 RWD Molenbeek L 1-2 1570 1572 42.67% 23.70% 33.63% -7.4 5
2022-09-11 @ Deinze W 2-1 1572 1570 33.63% 23.70% 42.67% +7.4 8
2022-09-16 Anderlecht II L 2-3 1559 1638 32.00% 23.61% 44.39% -5.6 12
2022-09-16 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1638 1559 44.39% 23.61% 32.00% +5.6 10
2022-09-16 Dender L 0-2 1562 1519 48.82% 23.26% 27.92% -16.6 5
2022-09-16 @ Deinze W 2-0 1519 1562 27.92% 23.26% 48.82% +16.6 4
2022-09-17 Genk II D 1-1 1580 1597 40.60% 23.76% 35.63% -0.2 9
2022-09-17 @ RWD Molenbeek D 1-1 1597 1580 35.63% 23.76% 40.60% +0.2 5
2022-09-17 Beveren D 2-2 1480 1579 29.49% 23.42% 47.09% +0.5 6
2022-09-17 @ Club NXT D 2-2 1579 1480 47.09% 23.42% 29.49% -0.5 9
2022-09-18 Beerschot L 1-2 1469 1541 32.88% 23.66% 43.45% -6.1 7
2022-09-18 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1541 1469 43.45% 23.66% 32.88% +6.1 10
2022-09-18 Standard Liege II L 0-1 1582 1626 36.86% 23.78% 39.36% -7.0 9
2022-09-18 @ Lommel W 1-0 1626 1582 39.36% 23.78% 36.86% +7.0 9
2022-09-30 Club NXT D 3-3 1463 1480 40.61% 23.76% 35.62% -0.1 8
2022-09-30 @ Excelsior Virton D 3-3 1480 1463 35.62% 23.76% 40.61% +0.1 7
2022-09-30 Dender L 0-2 1597 1536 51.21% 22.98% 25.81% -17.3 5
2022-09-30 @ Genk II W 2-0 1536 1597 25.81% 22.98% 51.21% +17.3 7
2022-10-01 Deinze W 2-0 1548 1545 43.34% 23.67% 32.99% +12.2 13
2022-10-01 @ Beerschot L 0-2 1545 1548 32.99% 23.67% 43.34% -12.2 5
2022-10-01 RWD Molenbeek W 2-1 1575 1580 42.49% 23.70% 33.81% +6.2 12
2022-10-01 @ Lommel L 1-2 1580 1575 33.81% 23.70% 42.49% -6.2 9
2022-10-02 Anderlecht II L 1-3 1633 1644 41.56% 23.74% 34.71% -12.6 9
2022-10-02 @ Standard Liege II W 3-1 1644 1633 34.71% 23.74% 41.56% +12.6 13
2022-10-02 Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-0 1579 1553 46.53% 23.47% 30.00% +26.3 12
2022-10-02 @ Beveren L 0-5 1553 1579 30.00% 23.47% 46.53% -26.3 12
2022-10-07 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1657 1462 65.76% 19.68% 14.55% +5.0 16
2022-10-07 @ Anderlecht II L 1-3 1462 1657 14.55% 19.68% 65.76% -5.0 8
2022-10-07 Beveren L 0-3 1553 1605 35.73% 23.76% 40.51% -18.8 7
2022-10-07 @ Dender W 3-0 1605 1553 40.51% 23.76% 35.73% +18.8 15
2022-10-08 Beerschot W 2-0 1573 1560 44.93% 23.58% 31.49% +11.7 12
2022-10-08 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-2 1560 1573 31.49% 23.58% 44.93% -11.7 13
2022-10-08 Lommel W 3-0 1533 1582 36.22% 23.77% 40.01% +20.5 8
2022-10-08 @ Deinze L 0-3 1582 1533 40.01% 23.77% 36.22% -20.5 12
2022-10-09 Genk II W 3-1 1480 1580 29.45% 23.42% 47.14% +14.0 10
2022-10-09 @ Club NXT L 1-3 1580 1480 47.14% 23.42% 29.45% -13.9 5
2022-10-09 Standard Liege II W 2-0 1527 1621 30.20% 23.48% 46.32% +15.9 15
2022-10-09 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1621 1527 46.32% 23.48% 30.20% -15.9 9
2022-10-14 Deinze W 2-1 1624 1554 52.25% 22.84% 24.91% +4.8 18
2022-10-14 @ Beveren L 1-2 1554 1624 24.91% 22.84% 52.25% -4.8 8
2022-10-14 RWD Molenbeek L 1-4 1605 1585 45.75% 23.53% 30.72% -19.3 9
2022-10-14 @ Standard Liege II W 4-1 1585 1605 30.72% 23.53% 45.75% +19.3 15
2022-10-15 Club NXT L 3-4 1561 1494 51.89% 22.89% 25.22% -8.1 12
2022-10-15 @ Lommel W 4-3 1494 1561 25.22% 22.89% 51.89% +8.1 13
2022-10-15 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1458 1543 31.29% 23.57% 45.15% +0.6 9
2022-10-15 @ Excelsior Virton D 0-0 1543 1458 45.15% 23.57% 31.29% -0.6 16
2022-10-16 Anderlecht II W 3-2 1566 1662 30.01% 23.47% 46.53% +7.6 8
2022-10-16 @ Genk II L 2-3 1662 1566 46.53% 23.47% 30.01% -7.6 16
2022-10-16 Dender D 1-1 1548 1534 44.93% 23.58% 31.49% -0.5 14
2022-10-16 @ Beerschot D 1-1 1534 1548 31.49% 23.58% 44.93% +0.5 8
2022-10-21 Deinze W 2-0 1502 1549 36.42% 23.78% 39.81% +14.1 16
2022-10-21 @ Club NXT L 0-2 1549 1502 39.81% 23.78% 36.42% -14.1 8
2022-10-21 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1585 1458 58.95% 21.60% 19.46% +3.8 12
2022-10-21 @ Standard Liege II L 1-2 1458 1585 19.46% 21.60% 58.95% -3.8 9
2022-10-22 Beerschot L 1-2 1574 1547 46.63% 23.46% 29.91% -8.0 8
2022-10-22 @ Genk II W 2-1 1547 1574 29.91% 23.46% 46.63% +8.0 17
2022-10-22 Dender L 0-2 1654 1535 58.03% 21.80% 20.17% -19.3 16
2022-10-22 @ Anderlecht II W 2-0 1535 1654 20.17% 21.80% 58.03% +19.3 11
2022-10-23 Lommel W 3-1 1542 1553 41.53% 23.74% 34.74% +11.0 19
2022-10-23 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1553 1542 34.74% 23.74% 41.53% -11.0 12
2022-10-23 Beveren W 3-1 1604 1629 39.64% 23.78% 36.58% +11.4 18
2022-10-23 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-3 1629 1604 36.58% 23.78% 39.64% -11.4 18
2022-10-28 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1542 1454 54.42% 22.50% 23.08% +7.8 15
2022-10-28 @ Lommel L 1-3 1454 1542 23.08% 22.50% 54.42% -7.8 9
2022-10-28 Standard Liege II W 4-1 1535 1589 35.37% 23.76% 40.87% +17.6 11
2022-10-28 @ Deinze L 1-4 1589 1535 40.87% 23.76% 35.37% -17.6 12
2022-10-29 Anderlecht II L 1-2 1555 1635 32.05% 23.62% 44.34% -5.9 17
2022-10-29 @ Beerschot W 2-1 1635 1555 44.34% 23.62% 32.05% +5.9 19
2022-10-29 Club NXT W 3-2 1554 1516 48.17% 23.32% 28.50% +5.1 14
2022-10-29 @ Dender L 2-3 1516 1554 28.50% 23.32% 48.17% -5.1 16
2022-10-30 Genk II W 3-0 1617 1566 49.92% 23.14% 26.94% +14.9 21
2022-10-30 @ Beveren L 0-3 1566 1617 26.94% 23.14% 49.92% -14.9 8
2022-10-30 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1616 1553 51.35% 22.96% 25.69% +14.3 21
2022-10-30 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-3 1553 1616 25.69% 22.96% 51.35% -14.3 19
2022-11-04 RWD Molenbeek L 0-1 1559 1630 33.15% 23.68% 43.18% -6.5 14
2022-11-04 @ Dender W 1-0 1630 1559 43.18% 23.68% 33.15% +6.5 24
2022-11-04 Standard Liege II W 3-0 1641 1572 52.13% 22.86% 25.02% +14.0 22
2022-11-04 @ Anderlecht II L 0-3 1572 1641 25.02% 22.86% 52.13% -14.0 12
2022-11-05 Club NXT W 1-0 1632 1511 58.24% 21.76% 20.01% +4.2 24
2022-11-05 @ Beveren L 0-1 1511 1632 20.01% 21.76% 58.24% -4.2 16
2022-11-05 Deinze L 0-1 1446 1553 28.71% 23.35% 47.94% -5.8 9
2022-11-05 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1553 1446 47.94% 23.35% 28.71% +5.8 14
2022-11-06 Beerschot L 1-3 1550 1550 43.10% 23.68% 33.22% -13.0 15
2022-11-06 @ Lommel W 3-1 1550 1550 33.22% 23.68% 43.10% +13.0 20
2022-11-06 Genk II W 4-2 1539 1551 41.37% 23.74% 34.89% +9.8 22
2022-11-06 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-4 1551 1539 34.89% 23.74% 41.37% -9.8 8
2022-11-11 Anderlecht II D 2-2 1507 1655 24.09% 22.70% 53.21% +0.9 17
2022-11-11 @ Club NXT D 2-2 1655 1507 53.21% 22.70% 24.09% -0.9 23
2022-11-11 Dender D 1-1 1558 1553 43.74% 23.65% 32.62% -0.4 13
2022-11-11 @ Standard Liege II D 1-1 1553 1558 32.62% 23.65% 43.74% +0.4 15
2022-11-12 Deinze D 0-0 1541 1558 40.62% 23.76% 35.62% -0.2 9
2022-11-12 @ Genk II D 0-0 1558 1541 35.62% 23.76% 40.62% +0.2 15
2022-11-12 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1562 1441 58.33% 21.74% 19.93% +11.4 23
2022-11-12 @ Beerschot L 0-3 1441 1562 19.93% 21.74% 58.33% -11.4 9
2022-11-13 Lommel W 5-0 1637 1537 55.82% 22.25% 21.93% +20.1 27
2022-11-13 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-5 1537 1637 21.93% 22.25% 55.82% -20.1 15
2022-11-13 Beveren L 1-5 1549 1636 30.96% 23.54% 45.49% -18.3 22
2022-11-13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-1 1636 1549 45.49% 23.54% 30.96% +18.3 27
2022-11-18 Genk II W 2-1 1517 1541 39.69% 23.78% 36.53% +6.6 18
2022-11-18 @ Lommel L 1-2 1541 1517 36.53% 23.78% 39.69% -6.6 9
2022-11-18 Standard Liege II L 0-2 1429 1557 26.20% 23.04% 50.76% -10.0 9
2022-11-18 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1557 1429 50.76% 23.04% 26.20% +10.0 16
2022-11-19 Club NXT W 1-0 1574 1508 51.77% 22.91% 25.32% +5.2 26
2022-11-19 @ Beerschot L 0-1 1508 1574 25.32% 22.91% 51.77% -5.2 17
2022-11-19 RWD Molenbeek D 1-1 1654 1657 42.77% 23.69% 33.54% -0.3 28
2022-11-19 @ Beveren D 1-1 1657 1654 33.54% 23.69% 42.77% +0.4 28
2022-11-20 Anderlecht II W 2-1 1553 1654 29.37% 23.41% 47.22% +8.1 18
2022-11-20 @ Dender L 1-2 1654 1553 47.22% 23.41% 29.37% -8.1 23
2022-11-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1559 1530 46.90% 23.44% 29.66% +5.6 18
2022-11-20 @ Deinze L 1-2 1530 1559 29.66% 23.44% 46.90% -5.6 22
2022-11-25 Dender W 4-1 1503 1561 34.79% 23.74% 41.47% +17.8 20
2022-11-25 @ Club NXT L 1-4 1561 1503 41.47% 23.74% 34.79% -17.8 18
2022-11-25 RWD Molenbeek W 2-0 1534 1657 26.77% 23.12% 50.11% +17.0 12
2022-11-25 @ Genk II L 0-2 1657 1534 50.11% 23.12% 26.77% -17.0 28
2022-11-26 Beerschot L 1-2 1646 1579 51.85% 22.90% 25.26% -8.7 23
2022-11-26 @ Anderlecht II W 2-1 1579 1646 25.26% 22.90% 51.85% +8.7 29
2022-11-26 Deinze L 1-2 1567 1564 43.50% 23.66% 32.84% -7.5 16
2022-11-26 @ Standard Liege II W 2-1 1564 1567 32.84% 23.66% 43.50% +7.6 21
2022-11-27 Excelsior Virton D 2-2 1525 1419 56.48% 22.12% 21.39% -1.1 23
2022-11-27 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1419 1525 21.39% 22.12% 56.48% +1.1 10
2022-11-27 Lommel L 2-3 1654 1523 59.32% 21.51% 19.17% -9.3 28
2022-11-27 @ Beveren W 3-2 1523 1654 19.17% 21.51% 59.32% +9.3 21
2022-12-02 Genk II W 2-0 1637 1551 54.19% 22.54% 23.27% +9.0 26
2022-12-02 @ Anderlecht II L 0-2 1551 1637 23.27% 22.54% 54.19% -9.0 12
2022-12-02 Lierse Kempenzonen L 2-4 1560 1524 47.95% 23.35% 28.71% -12.7 16
2022-12-02 @ Standard Liege II W 4-2 1524 1560 28.71% 23.35% 47.95% +12.7 26
2022-12-03 Club NXT L 0-2 1640 1520 58.08% 21.79% 20.13% -19.3 28
2022-12-03 @ RWD Molenbeek W 2-0 1520 1640 20.13% 21.79% 58.08% +19.3 23
2022-12-03 Lommel L 0-1 1420 1533 27.97% 23.27% 48.76% -5.6 10
2022-12-03 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1533 1420 48.76% 23.27% 27.97% +5.6 24
2022-12-04 Beerschot L 2-3 1543 1588 36.77% 23.78% 39.45% -6.3 18
2022-12-04 @ Dender W 3-2 1588 1543 39.45% 23.78% 36.77% +6.3 32
2022-12-04 Beveren L 1-4 1572 1645 32.83% 23.66% 43.51% -14.8 21
2022-12-04 @ Deinze W 4-1 1645 1572 43.51% 23.66% 32.83% +14.8 31
2022-12-09 Anderlecht II W 4-1 1660 1646 44.93% 23.58% 31.49% +14.3 34
2022-12-09 @ Beveren L 1-4 1646 1660 31.49% 23.58% 44.93% -14.3 26
2022-12-09 Club NXT L 1-2 1542 1540 43.38% 23.67% 32.96% -7.5 12
2022-12-09 @ Genk II W 2-1 1540 1542 32.96% 23.67% 43.38% +7.5 26
2022-12-10 Dender W 2-1 1536 1537 42.93% 23.69% 33.38% +6.1 29
2022-12-10 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1537 1536 33.38% 23.69% 42.93% -6.1 18
2022-12-11 Deinze W 1-0 1538 1557 40.46% 23.76% 35.77% +6.9 27
2022-12-11 @ Lommel L 0-1 1557 1538 35.77% 23.76% 40.46% -6.9 21
2022-12-11 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1621 1415 66.88% 19.30% 13.81% +4.7 31
2022-12-11 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-3 1415 1621 13.81% 19.30% 66.88% -4.7 10
2022-12-11 Standard Liege II W 1-0 1594 1547 49.35% 23.20% 27.44% +5.5 35
2022-12-11 @ Beerschot L 0-1 1547 1594 27.44% 23.20% 49.35% -5.5 16
2022-12-17 Lommel L 0-3 1542 1545 42.55% 23.70% 33.75% -21.5 16
2022-12-17 @ Standard Liege II W 3-0 1545 1542 33.75% 23.70% 42.55% +21.5 30
2022-12-17 Beveren D 0-0 1410 1674 14.55% 19.68% 65.76% +2.4 11
2022-12-17 @ Excelsior Virton D 0-0 1674 1410 65.76% 19.68% 14.55% -2.4 35
2022-12-18 RWD Molenbeek L 1-2 1632 1625 43.92% 23.64% 32.44% -7.6 26
2022-12-18 @ Anderlecht II W 2-1 1625 1632 32.44% 23.64% 43.92% +7.6 34
2023-01-15 Beerschot W 3-2 1550 1600 36.02% 23.77% 40.21% +6.7 24
2023-01-15 @ Deinze L 2-3 1600 1550 40.21% 23.77% 36.02% -6.7 35
2023-01-20 Lommel W 2-1 1547 1567 40.32% 23.77% 35.91% +6.5 29
2023-01-20 @ Club NXT L 1-2 1567 1547 35.91% 23.77% 40.32% -6.5 30
2023-01-21 Deinze W 2-1 1633 1557 53.04% 22.72% 24.24% +4.7 37
2023-01-21 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-2 1557 1633 24.24% 22.72% 53.04% -4.7 24
2023-01-21 Excelsior Virton L 3-4 1531 1412 57.98% 21.81% 20.20% -8.9 18
2023-01-21 @ Dender W 4-3 1412 1531 20.20% 21.81% 57.98% +8.9 14
2023-01-22 Beerschot W 2-0 1672 1593 53.33% 22.68% 23.99% +9.3 38
2023-01-22 @ Beveren L 0-2 1593 1672 23.99% 22.68% 53.33% -9.3 35
2023-01-22 Lierse Kempenzonen D 3-3 1624 1542 53.68% 22.62% 23.69% -0.8 27
2023-01-22 @ Anderlecht II D 3-3 1542 1624 23.69% 22.62% 53.68% +0.7 30
2023-01-24 Genk II L 0-1 1522 1535 41.33% 23.74% 34.93% -7.7 18
2023-01-24 @ Dender W 1-0 1535 1522 34.93% 23.74% 41.33% +7.7 15
2023-01-27 Club NXT W 2-1 1552 1554 42.81% 23.69% 33.50% +6.2 27
2023-01-27 @ Deinze L 1-2 1554 1552 33.50% 23.69% 42.81% -6.2 29
2023-01-27 Genk II W 3-2 1584 1542 48.63% 23.28% 28.09% +5.1 38
2023-01-27 @ Beerschot L 2-3 1542 1584 28.09% 23.28% 48.63% -5.0 15
2023-01-28 Anderlecht II L 1-3 1421 1623 19.06% 21.48% 59.46% -6.5 14
2023-01-28 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1623 1421 59.46% 21.48% 19.06% +6.5 30
2023-01-28 Dender D 1-1 1560 1514 49.20% 23.22% 27.58% -0.9 31
2023-01-28 @ Lommel D 1-1 1514 1560 27.58% 23.22% 49.20% +0.9 19
2023-01-29 RWD Molenbeek L 1-2 1543 1638 30.11% 23.48% 46.41% -5.6 30
2023-01-29 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1638 1543 46.41% 23.48% 30.11% +5.6 40
2023-01-29 Beveren D 2-2 1520 1681 22.77% 22.44% 54.79% +1.0 17
2023-01-29 @ Standard Liege II D 2-2 1681 1520 54.79% 22.44% 22.77% -1.0 39
2023-02-01 Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1548 1538 44.45% 23.61% 31.94% +6.3 32
2023-02-01 @ Club NXT L 0-1 1538 1548 31.94% 23.61% 44.45% -6.3 30
2023-02-03 Lommel D 2-2 1630 1559 52.32% 22.83% 24.85% -0.8 31
2023-02-03 @ Anderlecht II D 2-2 1559 1630 24.85% 22.83% 52.32% +0.8 32
2023-02-03 Beveren D 2-2 1537 1680 24.60% 22.79% 52.61% +0.8 16
2023-02-03 @ Genk II D 2-2 1680 1537 52.61% 22.79% 24.60% -0.8 40
2023-02-04 Beerschot W 1-0 1531 1589 34.95% 23.74% 41.30% +7.7 33
2023-02-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1589 1531 41.30% 23.74% 34.95% -7.7 38
2023-02-04 Standard Liege II W 3-1 1643 1521 58.39% 21.72% 19.88% +6.8 43
2023-02-04 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-3 1521 1643 19.88% 21.72% 58.39% -6.8 17
2023-02-05 Deinze L 0-1 1515 1558 36.99% 23.78% 39.23% -7.1 19
2023-02-05 @ Dender W 1-0 1558 1515 39.23% 23.78% 36.99% +7.1 30
2023-02-05 Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1554 1415 60.21% 21.29% 18.49% +3.9 35
2023-02-05 @ Club NXT L 0-1 1415 1554 18.49% 21.29% 60.21% -3.9 14
2023-02-11 Anderlecht II L 2-3 1565 1629 34.08% 23.72% 42.21% -5.9 30
2023-02-11 @ Deinze W 3-2 1629 1565 42.21% 23.72% 34.08% +5.9 34
2023-02-11 Club NXT D 0-0 1514 1558 36.88% 23.78% 39.34% +0.1 18
2023-02-11 @ Standard Liege II D 0-0 1558 1514 39.34% 23.78% 36.88% -0.1 36
2023-02-11 Dender W 5-2 1679 1508 63.50% 20.40% 16.10% +6.8 43
2023-02-11 @ Beveren L 2-5 1508 1679 16.10% 20.40% 63.50% -6.8 19
2023-02-11 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1560 1539 45.97% 23.51% 30.52% -15.8 32
2023-02-11 @ Lommel W 2-0 1539 1560 30.52% 23.51% 45.97% +15.8 36
2023-02-12 Genk II L 0-1 1411 1538 26.30% 23.05% 50.65% -5.4 14
2023-02-12 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1538 1411 50.65% 23.05% 26.30% +5.3 19
2023-02-12 RWD Molenbeek L 0-1 1581 1650 33.37% 23.69% 42.95% -6.5 38
2023-02-12 @ Beerschot W 1-0 1650 1581 42.95% 23.69% 33.37% +6.5 46
2023-02-19 Standard Liege II D 2-2 1543 1514 47.00% 23.43% 29.57% -0.5 20
2023-02-19 @ Genk II D 2-2 1514 1543 29.57% 23.43% 47.00% +0.5 19

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2023-02-24 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1502 1406 55.38% 22.33% 22.29% +4.3 3
2023-02-24 @ Dender L 1-2 1406 1502 22.29% 22.33% 55.38% -4.3 0
2023-02-24 Lommel W 1-0 1515 1544 38.88% 23.79% 37.34% +7.1 3
2023-02-24 @ Standard Liege II L 0-1 1544 1515 37.34% 23.79% 38.88% -7.1 0
2023-02-25 Genk II L 1-3 1559 1543 45.31% 23.56% 31.13% -13.5 0
2023-02-25 @ Deinze W 3-1 1543 1559 31.13% 23.56% 45.31% +13.5 3
2023-02-25 Beveren W 3-0 1558 1686 26.17% 23.03% 50.80% +24.9 3
2023-02-25 @ Club NXT L 0-3 1686 1558 50.80% 23.03% 26.17% -24.9 0
2023-02-26 Anderlecht II D 0-0 1574 1635 34.53% 23.73% 41.73% +0.3 1
2023-02-26 @ Beerschot D 0-0 1635 1574 41.73% 23.73% 34.53% -0.3 1
2023-02-26 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1657 1555 56.08% 22.20% 21.72% +7.4 3
2023-02-26 @ RWD Molenbeek L 1-3 1555 1657 21.72% 22.20% 56.08% -7.4 0
2023-03-03 Club NXT L 1-2 1635 1583 50.01% 23.13% 26.86% -8.5 1
2023-03-03 @ Anderlecht II W 2-1 1583 1635 26.86% 23.13% 50.01% +8.5 6
2023-03-03 Dender W 1-0 1537 1506 47.32% 23.40% 29.27% +5.9 3
2023-03-03 @ Lommel L 0-1 1506 1537 29.27% 23.40% 47.32% -5.8 3
2023-03-04 Deinze L 1-2 1401 1546 24.42% 22.76% 52.82% -4.7 0
2023-03-04 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1546 1401 52.82% 22.76% 24.42% +4.7 3
2023-03-04 RWD Molenbeek W 2-1 1661 1664 42.63% 23.70% 33.67% +6.2 3
2023-03-04 @ Beveren L 1-2 1664 1661 33.67% 23.70% 42.63% -6.2 3
2023-03-05 Beerschot L 0-1 1547 1575 39.19% 23.78% 37.03% -7.4 0
2023-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1575 1547 37.03% 23.78% 39.19% +7.4 4
2023-03-05 Standard Liege II D 1-1 1556 1522 47.72% 23.37% 28.92% -0.7 4
2023-03-05 @ Genk II D 1-1 1522 1556 28.92% 23.37% 47.72% +0.7 4
2023-03-10 Deinze W 1-0 1500 1550 35.91% 23.77% 40.32% +7.5 6
2023-03-10 @ Dender L 0-1 1550 1500 40.32% 23.77% 35.91% -7.5 3
2023-03-10 Beveren L 0-1 1582 1667 31.31% 23.57% 45.12% -6.2 4
2023-03-10 @ Beerschot W 1-0 1667 1582 45.12% 23.57% 31.31% +6.2 6
2023-03-11 Anderlecht II W 2-0 1540 1626 31.15% 23.56% 45.29% +15.6 3
2023-03-11 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1626 1540 45.29% 23.56% 31.15% -15.6 1
2023-03-11 Standard Liege II W 1-0 1396 1523 26.40% 23.07% 50.54% +9.1 3
2023-03-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-1 1523 1396 50.54% 23.07% 26.40% -9.1 4
2023-03-12 Club NXT W 3-2 1658 1591 51.86% 22.89% 25.24% +4.6 6
2023-03-12 @ RWD Molenbeek L 2-3 1591 1658 25.24% 22.89% 51.86% -4.6 6
2023-03-12 Genk II W 2-0 1543 1556 41.32% 23.74% 34.94% +12.7 6
2023-03-12 @ Lommel L 0-2 1556 1543 34.94% 23.74% 41.32% -12.7 4
2023-03-17 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1543 1406 60.02% 21.34% 18.63% -1.7 5
2023-03-17 @ Genk II D 1-1 1406 1543 18.63% 21.34% 60.02% +1.7 4
2023-03-17 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1673 1556 57.88% 21.84% 20.28% +8.0 9
2023-03-17 @ Beveren L 0-2 1556 1673 20.28% 21.84% 57.88% -8.0 3
2023-03-18 Lommel D 1-1 1543 1556 41.24% 23.75% 35.01% -0.2 4
2023-03-18 @ Deinze D 1-1 1556 1543 35.01% 23.75% 41.24% +0.2 7
2023-03-18 RWD Molenbeek L 0-4 1611 1662 35.72% 23.76% 40.52% -24.6 1
2023-03-18 @ Anderlecht II W 4-0 1662 1611 40.52% 23.76% 35.72% +24.5 9
2023-03-19 Beerschot W 2-1 1586 1576 44.50% 23.61% 31.89% +5.9 9
2023-03-19 @ Club NXT L 1-2 1576 1586 31.89% 23.61% 44.50% -5.9 4
2023-03-19 Dender D 1-1 1514 1508 43.89% 23.64% 32.47% -0.4 5
2023-03-19 @ Standard Liege II D 1-1 1508 1514 32.47% 23.64% 43.89% +0.4 7
2023-03-31 Genk II W 1-0 1508 1541 38.36% 23.79% 37.85% +7.2 10
2023-03-31 @ Dender L 0-1 1541 1508 37.85% 23.79% 38.36% -7.2 5
2023-03-31 Beveren L 0-4 1586 1681 30.02% 23.47% 46.51% -21.4 1
2023-03-31 @ Anderlecht II W 4-0 1681 1586 46.51% 23.47% 30.02% +21.4 12
2023-04-01 Club NXT L 1-2 1548 1592 36.71% 23.78% 39.51% -6.6 3
2023-04-01 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1592 1548 39.51% 23.78% 36.71% +6.6 12
2023-04-01 Standard Liege II W 5-0 1543 1513 47.07% 23.42% 29.50% +26.0 7
2023-04-01 @ Deinze L 0-5 1513 1543 29.50% 23.42% 47.07% -26.0 5
2023-04-02 Excelsior Virton L 1-2 1556 1407 61.25% 21.03% 17.72% -10.1 7
2023-04-02 @ Lommel W 2-1 1407 1556 17.72% 21.03% 61.25% +10.1 7
2023-04-02 RWD Molenbeek D 1-1 1570 1687 27.44% 23.20% 49.36% +0.9 5
2023-04-02 @ Beerschot D 1-1 1687 1570 49.36% 23.20% 27.44% -0.9 10
2023-04-07 Deinze L 1-2 1487 1569 31.76% 23.60% 44.65% -5.9 5
2023-04-07 @ Standard Liege II W 2-1 1569 1487 44.65% 23.60% 31.76% +5.9 10
2023-04-07 Dender L 0-4 1534 1515 45.64% 23.53% 30.83% -29.8 5
2023-04-07 @ Genk II W 4-0 1515 1534 30.83% 23.53% 45.64% +29.8 13
2023-04-08 Anderlecht II W 4-1 1703 1565 60.10% 21.32% 18.58% +9.0 15
2023-04-08 @ Beveren L 1-4 1565 1703 18.58% 21.32% 60.10% -9.0 1
2023-04-08 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1599 1541 50.76% 23.04% 26.20% -9.1 12
2023-04-08 @ Club NXT W 1-0 1541 1599 26.20% 23.04% 50.76% +9.1 6
2023-04-09 Beerschot W 4-0 1686 1571 57.60% 21.90% 20.51% +15.3 13
2023-04-09 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-4 1571 1686 20.51% 21.90% 57.60% -15.3 5
2023-04-09 Lommel L 0-1 1417 1546 26.12% 23.03% 50.85% -5.3 7
2023-04-09 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1546 1417 50.85% 23.03% 26.12% +5.3 10
2023-04-14 Club NXT W 4-0 1556 1590 38.21% 23.79% 38.00% +25.8 8
2023-04-14 @ Beerschot L 0-4 1590 1556 38.00% 23.79% 38.21% -25.8 12
2023-04-14 Deinze W 4-1 1551 1575 39.79% 23.78% 36.44% +16.1 13
2023-04-14 @ Lommel L 1-4 1575 1551 36.44% 23.78% 39.79% -16.1 10
2023-04-15 Genk II D 0-0 1481 1504 39.83% 23.78% 36.39% -0.1 6
2023-04-15 @ Standard Liege II D 0-0 1504 1481 36.39% 23.78% 39.83% +0.1 6
2023-04-15 Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1556 1550 43.83% 23.64% 32.53% -0.3 2
2023-04-15 @ Anderlecht II D 2-2 1550 1556 32.53% 23.64% 43.83% +0.3 7
2023-04-16 Dender L 0-1 1412 1545 25.66% 22.96% 51.38% -5.2 7
2023-04-16 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1545 1412 51.38% 22.96% 25.66% +5.2 16
2023-04-16 Beveren D 1-1 1701 1712 41.63% 23.73% 34.64% -0.3 14
2023-04-16 @ RWD Molenbeek D 1-1 1712 1701 34.64% 23.73% 41.63% +0.3 16
2023-04-21 Anderlecht II D 0-0 1564 1555 44.27% 23.62% 32.11% -0.5 13
2023-04-21 @ Club NXT D 0-0 1555 1564 32.11% 23.62% 44.27% +0.5 3
2023-04-21 Lommel L 2-3 1504 1567 34.18% 23.72% 42.10% -5.9 6
2023-04-21 @ Genk II W 3-2 1567 1504 42.10% 23.72% 34.18% +5.9 16
2023-04-21 Standard Liege II D 0-0 1550 1481 52.14% 22.86% 25.00% -1.2 17
2023-04-21 @ Dender D 0-0 1481 1550 25.00% 22.86% 52.14% +1.2 7
2023-04-22 Beerschot W 3-0 1712 1581 59.29% 21.52% 19.19% +11.0 19
2023-04-22 @ Beveren L 0-3 1581 1712 19.19% 21.52% 59.29% -11.0 8
2023-04-22 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1558 1407 61.54% 20.95% 17.51% +6.0 13
2023-04-22 @ Deinze L 1-3 1407 1558 17.51% 20.95% 61.54% -6.0 7
2023-04-22 RWD Molenbeek L 0-3 1550 1701 23.78% 22.64% 53.58% -13.4 7
2023-04-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-0 1701 1550 53.58% 22.64% 23.78% +13.4 17
2023-05-05 Beerschot L 0-2 1556 1570 41.02% 23.75% 35.22% -14.4 3
2023-05-05 @ Anderlecht II W 2-0 1570 1556 35.22% 23.75% 41.02% +14.4 11
2023-05-05 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1482 1401 53.67% 22.63% 23.71% -1.2 8
2023-05-05 @ Standard Liege II D 1-1 1401 1482 23.71% 22.63% 53.67% +1.2 8
2023-05-06 Deinze L 0-2 1498 1564 33.78% 23.70% 42.51% -12.4 6
2023-05-06 @ Genk II W 2-0 1564 1498 42.51% 23.70% 33.78% +12.4 16
2023-05-06 Lommel W 2-1 1549 1573 39.62% 23.78% 36.60% +6.6 20
2023-05-06 @ Dender L 1-2 1573 1549 36.60% 23.78% 39.62% -6.6 16
2023-05-06 RWD Molenbeek L 1-3 1564 1715 23.76% 22.63% 53.61% -8.0 13
2023-05-06 @ Club NXT W 3-1 1715 1564 53.61% 22.63% 23.76% +8.0 20
2023-05-07 Beveren L 2-3 1537 1723 20.44% 21.88% 57.68% -3.8 7
2023-05-07 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1723 1537 57.68% 21.88% 20.44% +3.8 22
2023-05-12 Dender W 3-2 1577 1556 45.97% 23.51% 30.52% +5.4 19
2023-05-12 @ Deinze L 2-3 1556 1577 30.52% 23.51% 45.97% -5.4 20
2023-05-12 Genk II W 3-1 1402 1486 31.43% 23.58% 44.99% +13.4 11
2023-05-12 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-3 1486 1402 44.99% 23.58% 31.43% -13.4 6
2023-05-12 Standard Liege II W 6-1 1567 1481 54.16% 22.55% 23.29% +17.5 19
2023-05-12 @ Lommel L 1-6 1481 1567 23.29% 22.55% 54.16% -17.5 8
2023-05-13 Anderlecht II W 1-0 1723 1541 64.51% 20.09% 15.40% +3.2 23
2023-05-13 @ RWD Molenbeek L 0-1 1541 1723 15.40% 20.09% 64.51% -3.2 3
2023-05-13 Club NXT W 4-1 1727 1556 63.53% 20.39% 16.08% +7.8 25
2023-05-13 @ Beveren L 1-4 1556 1727 16.08% 20.39% 63.53% -7.8 13
2023-05-13 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1585 1533 49.95% 23.14% 26.92% -8.5 11
2023-05-13 @ Beerschot W 2-1 1533 1585 26.92% 23.14% 49.95% +8.5 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-09-11 17.64% Excelsior Virton 1458 1 @ Genk II 1608 0
2 2023-04-02 17.72% Excelsior Virton 1407 2 @ Lommel 1556 1
3 2022-11-27 19.17% Lommel 1523 3 @ Beveren 1654 2
4 2022-12-03 20.13% Club NXT 1520 2 @ RWD Molenbeek 1640 0
5 2022-10-22 20.17% Dender 1535 2 @ Anderlecht II 1654 0
6 2023-01-21 20.20% Excelsior Virton 1412 4 @ Dender 1531 3
7 2022-08-26 24.37% Lommel 1558 3 @ Genk II 1633 0
8 2022-10-15 25.22% Club NXT 1494 4 @ Lommel 1561 3
9 2022-11-26 25.26% Beerschot 1579 2 @ Anderlecht II 1646 1
10 2022-09-30 25.81% Dender 1536 2 @ Genk II 1597 0
11 2023-02-25 26.17% @ Club NXT 1558 3 Beveren 1686 0
12 2023-04-08 26.20% Lierse Kempenzonen 1541 1 @ Club NXT 1599 0
13 2023-03-11 26.40% @ Excelsior Virton 1396 1 Standard Liege II 1523 0
14 2022-11-25 26.77% @ Genk II 1534 2 RWD Molenbeek 1657 0
15 2023-03-03 26.86% Club NXT 1583 2 @ Anderlecht II 1635 1
16 2023-05-13 26.92% Lierse Kempenzonen 1533 2 @ Beerschot 1585 1
17 2022-09-16 27.92% Dender 1519 2 @ Deinze 1562 0
18 2022-12-02 28.71% Lierse Kempenzonen 1524 4 @ Standard Liege II 1560 2
19 2022-08-28 28.90% @ Club NXT 1476 2 RWD Molenbeek 1580 1
20 2022-11-20 29.37% @ Dender 1553 2 Anderlecht II 1654 1
21 2022-08-28 29.39% Lierse Kempenzonen 1527 3 @ Beerschot 1557 2
22 2022-10-09 29.45% @ Club NXT 1480 3 Genk II 1580 1
23 2022-09-04 29.66% Beveren 1556 2 @ Lommel 1584 0
24 2022-10-22 29.91% Beerschot 1547 2 @ Genk II 1574 1
25 2022-10-16 30.01% @ Genk II 1566 3 Anderlecht II 1662 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-04-07 29.77 Dender 4 1515 30.83% @ Genk II 0 1534 45.64% 23.53%
2 2022-10-02 26.33 @ Beveren 5 1579 46.53% Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1553 30.00% 23.47%
3 2023-04-01 25.97 @ Deinze 5 1543 47.07% Standard Liege II 0 1513 29.50% 23.42%
4 2022-08-26 25.81 Lommel 3 1558 24.37% @ Genk II 0 1633 52.88% 22.75%
5 2023-04-14 25.76 @ Beerschot 4 1556 38.21% Club NXT 0 1590 38.00% 23.79%
6 2023-02-25 24.93 @ Club NXT 3 1558 26.17% Beveren 0 1686 50.80% 23.03%
7 2023-03-18 24.56 RWD Molenbeek 4 1662 40.52% @ Anderlecht II 0 1611 35.72% 23.76%
8 2022-12-17 21.54 Lommel 3 1545 33.75% @ Standard Liege II 0 1542 42.55% 23.70%
9 2023-03-31 21.38 Beveren 4 1681 46.51% @ Anderlecht II 0 1586 30.02% 23.47%
10 2022-10-08 20.51 @ Deinze 3 1533 36.22% Lommel 0 1582 40.01% 23.77%
11 2022-11-13 20.07 @ RWD Molenbeek 5 1637 55.82% Lommel 0 1537 21.93% 22.25%
12 2022-12-03 19.29 Club NXT 2 1520 20.13% @ RWD Molenbeek 0 1640 58.08% 21.79%
13 2022-10-22 19.27 Dender 2 1535 20.17% @ Anderlecht II 0 1654 58.03% 21.80%
14 2022-10-14 19.26 RWD Molenbeek 4 1585 30.72% @ Standard Liege II 1 1605 45.75% 23.53%
15 2022-10-07 18.80 Beveren 3 1605 40.51% @ Dender 0 1553 35.73% 23.76%
16 2022-08-12 18.53 Lommel 4 1552 32.72% @ Dender 1 1556 43.62% 23.65%
17 2022-11-13 18.27 Beveren 5 1636 45.49% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1549 30.96% 23.54%
18 2022-11-25 17.79 @ Club NXT 4 1503 34.79% Dender 1 1561 41.47% 23.74%
19 2022-10-28 17.59 @ Deinze 4 1535 35.37% Standard Liege II 1 1589 40.87% 23.76%
20 2023-05-12 17.55 @ Lommel 6 1567 54.16% Standard Liege II 1 1481 23.29% 22.55%
21 2022-09-03 17.50 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 4 1535 35.65% Deinze 1 1587 40.59% 23.76%
22 2022-09-30 17.29 Dender 2 1536 25.81% @ Genk II 0 1597 51.21% 22.98%
23 2022-11-25 16.97 @ Genk II 2 1534 26.77% RWD Molenbeek 0 1657 50.11% 23.12%
24 2022-09-16 16.60 Dender 2 1519 27.92% @ Deinze 0 1562 48.82% 23.26%
25 2023-04-14 16.10 @ Lommel 4 1551 39.79% Deinze 1 1575 36.44% 23.78%