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2003-04 Bundesliga Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Grazer AK

72 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FC Superfund

10.22 points above expected

63 points · 52.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Austria Salzburg

10.33 points below expected

38 points · 48.33 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Grazer AK 36 21 9 6 72 62 32 +30 65.17 +6.83
2 Austria Wien 36 21 8 7 71 63 31 +32 66.52 +4.48
3 FC Superfund 36 17 12 7 63 59 41 +18 52.78 +10.22
4 Rapid Wien 36 16 9 11 57 50 47 +3 56.20 +0.80
5 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 36 11 12 13 45 47 58 -11 46.88 -1.88
6 Admira Wacker Modling 36 11 9 16 42 42 49 -7 44.20 -2.20
7 Austria Salzburg 36 11 5 20 38 44 48 -4 48.33 -10.33
8 Mattersburg 36 9 10 17 37 39 61 -22 35.45 +1.55
9 Sturm Graz 36 8 11 17 35 39 52 -13 42.15 -7.15
10 FC Karnten 36 7 11 18 32 36 62 -26 35.13 -3.13

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Superfund 63 52.78 +10.22
2 Grazer AK 72 65.17 +6.83
3 Austria Wien 71 66.52 +4.48
4 Mattersburg 37 35.45 +1.55
5 Rapid Wien 57 56.20 +0.80

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Austria Salzburg 38 48.33 -10.33
2 Sturm Graz 35 42.15 -7.15
3 FC Karnten 32 35.13 -3.13
4 Admira Wacker Modling 42 44.20 -2.20
5 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 45 46.88 -1.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Superfund 5 Oct 18 – Nov 8 1 in 290
2 Rapid Wien 4 Jul 16 – Aug 7 1 in 45
3 Austria Salzburg 3 Sep 10 – Sep 20 1 in 23
4 Grazer AK 4 Jul 16 – Aug 17 1 in 19
5 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 2 Sep 27 – Oct 3 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Austria Salzburg 6 Jul 17 – Aug 23 1 in 337
2 FC Karnten 5 Oct 5 – Nov 1 1 in 70
3 Sturm Graz 5 Mar 20 – Apr 14 1 in 30
4 Rapid Wien 3 May 8 – May 20 1 in 27
5 Austria Wien 2 Oct 3 – Oct 19 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Superfund 18 Nov 29 – May 20 1 in 820
2 Sturm Graz 7 Nov 29 – Mar 17 1 in 53
3 Grazer AK 16 Dec 6 – May 15 1 in 44
4 Rapid Wien 9 Jul 16 – Sep 17 1 in 25
5 Mattersburg 5 Sep 13 – Oct 19 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Wien 8 Nov 9 – Mar 17 1 in 107
2 Admira Wacker Modling 9 Mar 20 – May 8 1 in 28
3 FC Karnten 9 Jul 23 – Sep 28 1 in 22
4 Austria Salzburg 7 Jul 17 – Aug 31 1 in 16
5 Grazer AK 4 Aug 23 – Sep 17 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Grazer AK 1834 72 +22 10 9.6 +0.4
Austria Wien 1762 71 -41 9 9.9 -0.9
FC Superfund 1748 63 +46 13 8.0 +5.0
Rapid Wien 1593 57 -64 3 7.4 -4.4
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1563 45 -31 5 7.6 -2.6
Admira Wacker Modling 1562 42 +16 6 4.1 +1.9
Austria Salzburg 1609 38 +5 7 6.4 +0.6
Mattersburg 1507 37 -3 4 4.5 -0.5
Sturm Graz 1552 35 +11 7 6.3 +0.7
FC Karnten 1518 32 +39 7 4.9 +2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AWM AS AW FK FS GA MAT RW SB SG
Admira Wacker Modling —
3-0-1
4.92
0-0-4
3.31
1-2-1
6.70
1-0-3
4.40
1-1-2
3.30
1-2-1
6.35
3-0-1
4.03
0-3-1
5.39
1-1-2
5.80
Austria Salzburg
1-0-3
5.98
 —
0-2-2
3.42
4-0-0
6.58
0-0-4
5.21
0-0-4
3.78
3-0-1
6.81
1-0-3
5.05
1-1-2
5.78
1-2-1
6.03
Austria Wien
4-0-0
7.69
2-2-0
7.57
 —
2-0-2
8.24
2-1-1
6.96
1-1-2
5.79
3-0-1
8.44
2-2-0
6.47
3-0-1
7.40
2-2-0
7.87
FC Karnten
1-2-1
4.21
0-0-4
4.34
2-0-2
2.84
 —
0-3-1
3.69
0-1-3
2.59
1-1-2
5.47
1-1-2
3.18
1-2-1
4.10
1-1-2
4.87
FC Superfund
3-0-1
6.52
4-0-0
5.70
1-1-2
3.99
1-3-0
7.32
 —
0-3-1
4.11
1-2-1
7.45
1-1-2
5.15
3-1-0
5.81
3-1-0
6.37
Grazer AK
2-1-1
7.71
4-0-0
7.21
2-1-1
5.12
3-1-0
8.48
1-3-0
6.84
 —
2-2-0
8.37
3-0-1
5.98
2-0-2
7.27
2-1-1
8.07
Mattersburg
1-2-1
4.56
1-0-3
4.13
1-0-3
2.64
2-1-1
5.41
1-2-1
3.55
0-2-2
2.70
 —
0-1-3
3.49
1-1-2
4.11
2-1-1
4.60
Rapid Wien
1-0-3
6.91
3-0-1
5.88
0-2-2
4.45
2-1-1
7.80
2-1-1
5.76
1-0-3
4.93
3-1-0
7.49
 —
1-3-0
6.29
3-1-0
6.74
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz
1-3-0
5.52
2-1-1
5.13
1-0-3
3.57
1-2-1
6.87
0-1-3
5.08
2-0-2
3.70
2-1-1
6.82
0-3-1
4.62
 —
2-1-1
5.79
Sturm Graz
2-1-1
5.11
1-2-1
4.88
0-2-2
3.14
2-1-1
6.06
0-1-3
4.56
1-1-2
2.95
1-1-2
6.32
0-1-3
4.21
1-1-2
5.10
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.96 +14.9
Allowed 0.80 -12.5
Differential 0.92 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.44%7.50%6.39%3.06%1.94%0.56%28.89%
17.50%12.22%8.06%1.94%2.22%1.11%33.06%
26.39%8.06%4.44%2.22%1.67%—22.78%
33.06%1.94%2.22%0.56%——7.78%
41.94%2.22%1.67%———5.83%
5+0.56%1.11%————1.67%
Total28.89%33.06%22.78%7.78%5.83%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.84
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%——36.11%
15.56%11.11%13.89%——2.78%33.33%
22.78%8.33%5.56%———16.67%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
45.56%—2.78%———8.33%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%36.11%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.36 -0.19
SD 1.23 1.07 1.75
CV 1.05 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%2.78%—41.67%
15.56%—16.67%———22.22%
25.56%5.56%2.78%5.56%2.78%—22.22%
32.78%—2.78%———5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.42 1.22 2.05
CV 1.16 0.91 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
116.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
28.33%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—19.44%
38.33%5.56%————13.89%
42.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total47.22%33.33%11.11%2.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.86 +0.89
SD 1.44 1.10 1.79
CV 0.82 1.28 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%5.56%8.33%11.11%—2.78%41.67%
1—13.89%5.56%—5.56%2.78%27.78%
211.11%2.78%2.78%8.33%——25.00%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total25.00%25.00%19.44%19.44%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.72 -0.72
SD 1.12 1.47 1.92
CV 1.12 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%——2.78%—13.89%
18.33%19.44%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%13.89%2.78%—8.33%—30.56%
311.11%2.78%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total36.11%38.89%11.11%2.78%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.14 +0.50
SD 1.05 1.27 1.65
CV 0.64 1.11 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%————11.11%
116.67%13.89%8.33%2.78%2.78%—44.44%
28.33%13.89%————22.22%
32.78%2.78%—2.78%——8.33%
42.78%8.33%————11.11%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total38.89%44.44%8.33%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.89 +0.83
SD 1.28 0.98 1.58
CV 0.74 1.10 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%5.56%2.78%8.33%—38.89%
12.78%16.67%2.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%33.33%
22.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%41.67%16.67%8.33%13.89%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.69 -0.61
SD 1.18 1.39 1.93
CV 1.09 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%13.89%—2.78%—25.00%
18.33%11.11%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
211.11%13.89%8.33%—2.78%—36.11%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total25.00%33.33%33.33%2.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.31 +0.08
SD 1.10 1.06 1.59
CV 0.79 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%2.78%5.56%—41.67%
2—8.33%11.11%5.56%——25.00%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%30.56%11.11%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.61 -0.31
SD 1.06 1.15 1.51
CV 0.82 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%8.33%11.11%2.78%—2.78%38.89%
1—11.11%13.89%5.56%—2.78%33.33%
28.33%2.78%5.56%———16.67%
32.78%—————2.78%
42.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
5+———————
Total27.78%25.00%33.33%8.33%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.44 -0.36
SD 1.20 1.30 1.91
CV 1.11 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Grazer AK 1834 72 65.17 +6.83 84.9% 44 53 60 65 70 77 89
Austria Wien 1762 71 66.52 +4.48 76.3% 42 55 62 66 71 79 89
FC Superfund 1748 63 52.78 +10.22 92.0% 32 41 48 52 58 65 77
Austria Salzburg 1609 38 48.33 -10.33 8.9% 26 36 43 48 53 60 68
Rapid Wien 1593 57 56.20 +0.80 58.6% 35 44 52 56 61 68 77
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1563 45 46.88 -1.88 42.9% 24 35 42 47 52 59 73
Admira Wacker Modling 1562 42 44.20 -2.20 41.2% 20 31 39 44 49 57 67
Sturm Graz 1552 35 42.15 -7.15 16.2% 22 31 38 42 47 53 68
FC Karnten 1518 32 35.13 -3.13 34.8% 15 24 31 35 39 47 57
Mattersburg 1507 37 35.45 +1.55 62.6% 14 24 31 36 40 46 63

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
50.56%26.67%22.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
189 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
099.11500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.67 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.52+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Grazer AK, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.78 * Some Luck: 5.78 to 8.66 * Lucky: 8.66 to 11.55 * Wild Swing: 11.55 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.01 * Close: 1.01 to 1.51 * Off: 1.51 to 2.01 * Way Off: 2.01 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.92 points
Some Luck
07.2218
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.263
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.00%
FC Superfund
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.90%
Austria Salzburg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.69
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.66
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.93
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Grazer AK41.70%33.20%14.90%6.30%2.70%1.00%0.10%0.10%——
Austria Wien46.60%33.90%13.20%3.40%1.70%1.00%0.10%—0.10%—
FC Superfund3.60%8.90%21.00%22.00%18.80%13.00%6.30%4.30%1.90%0.20%
Rapid Wien6.20%17.00%27.50%22.50%12.90%7.20%3.70%2.00%1.00%—
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz0.80%2.50%7.10%12.40%15.80%20.70%17.90%11.60%8.00%3.20%
Admira Wacker Modling0.10%1.60%3.70%9.70%15.40%16.30%17.80%16.10%11.80%7.50%
Austria Salzburg1.00%2.50%9.90%16.60%19.30%18.10%15.00%9.50%5.00%3.10%
Mattersburg—0.10%0.30%0.80%2.50%4.50%8.60%17.30%29.20%36.70%
Sturm Graz—0.30%2.20%5.30%9.10%13.30%22.30%23.30%16.50%7.70%
FC Karnten——0.20%1.00%1.80%4.90%8.20%15.80%26.50%41.60%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Austria Wien 100% —
Grazer AK 100% —
Rapid Wien 100% —
FC Superfund 99.80% 0.20%
Austria Salzburg 96.90% 3.10%
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 96.80% 3.20%
Admira Wacker Modling 92.50% 7.50%
Sturm Graz 92.30% 7.70%
Mattersburg 63.30% 36.70%
FC Karnten 58.40% 41.60%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-07-16 Admira Wacker Modling W 1-051.5 1712 1578 63.34% 23.76% 12.90%+1.24 +4.8 3
2003-07-16 @ Grazer AK L 0-151.5 1578 1712 12.90% 23.76% 63.34%-1.24 -4.8 0
2003-07-16 FC Superfund W 4-261.0 1632 1619 50.74% 27.14% 22.12%+0.60 +11.5 3
2003-07-16 @ Rapid Wien L 2-461.0 1619 1632 22.12% 27.14% 50.74%-0.60 -11.5 0
2003-07-16 Austria Wien W 2-166.1 1592 1703 34.17% 28.28% 37.55%-0.06 +11.2 3
2003-07-16 @ FC Karnten L 1-266.1 1703 1592 37.55% 28.28% 34.17%+0.06 -11.2 0
2003-07-17 Austria Salzburg W 1-057.5 1609 1661 42.44% 28.09% 29.47%+0.25 +10.0 3
2003-07-17 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 0-157.5 1661 1609 29.47% 28.09% 42.44%-0.25 -10.0 0
2003-07-23 FC Karnten D 0-064.5 1616 1604 50.60% 27.17% 22.23%+0.59 -2.1 1
2003-07-23 @ Sturm Graz D 0-064.5 1604 1616 22.23% 27.17% 50.60%-0.59 +2.1 4
2003-07-23 Grazer AK L 1-265.4 1607 1717 34.31% 28.28% 37.40%-0.06 -10.5 0
2003-07-23 @ FC Superfund W 2-165.4 1717 1607 37.40% 28.28% 34.31%+0.06 +10.5 6
2003-07-23 Mattersburg D 1-166.3 1573 1527 54.56% 26.40% 19.05%+0.77 -2.4 1
2003-07-23 @ Admira Wacker Modling D 1-166.3 1527 1573 19.05% 26.40% 54.56%-0.77 +2.4 1
2003-07-23 Rapid Wien L 1-269.5 1651 1643 50.04% 27.26% 22.70%+0.56 -14.1 0
2003-07-23 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-169.5 1643 1651 22.70% 27.26% 50.04%-0.56 +14.1 6
2003-07-23 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 4-048.0 1692 1619 57.39% 25.69% 16.92%+0.91 +22.3 3
2003-07-23 @ Austria Wien L 0-448.0 1619 1692 16.92% 25.69% 57.39%-0.91 -22.3 3
2003-07-26 Sturm Graz W 3-158.6 1529 1614 37.91% 28.27% 33.82%+0.08 +18.0 4
2003-07-26 @ Mattersburg L 1-358.6 1614 1529 33.82% 28.27% 37.91%-0.08 -18.0 1
2003-07-30 Admira Wacker Modling W 1-051.9 1658 1571 58.78% 25.30% 15.93%+0.98 +5.9 9
2003-07-30 @ Rapid Wien L 0-151.9 1571 1658 15.93% 25.30% 58.78%-0.98 -5.9 1
2003-07-30 FC Karnten D 0-062.7 1547 1606 41.53% 28.14% 30.33%+0.21 -0.8 5
2003-07-30 @ Mattersburg D 0-062.7 1606 1547 30.33% 28.14% 41.53%-0.21 +0.8 5
2003-07-30 Sturm Graz W 2-159.7 1597 1596 49.26% 27.38% 23.36%+0.53 +7.8 6
2003-07-30 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 1-259.7 1596 1597 23.36% 27.38% 49.26%-0.53 -7.8 1
2003-08-02 Grazer AK L 1-266.7 1637 1727 37.08% 28.29% 34.64%+0.05 -11.1 0
2003-08-02 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-166.7 1727 1637 34.64% 28.29% 37.08%-0.05 +11.1 9
2003-08-06 Mattersburg W 3-044.8 1714 1546 66.35% 22.54% 11.11%+1.42 +11.1 6
2003-08-06 @ Austria Wien L 0-344.8 1546 1714 11.11% 22.54% 66.35%-1.42 -11.1 5
2003-08-06 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-169.0 1606 1604 49.37% 27.36% 23.27%+0.53 -1.7 6
2003-08-06 @ FC Karnten D 1-169.0 1604 1606 23.27% 27.36% 49.37%-0.53 +1.7 7
2003-08-07 Rapid Wien L 0-256.8 1588 1663 39.19% 28.24% 32.57%+0.12 -23.2 1
2003-08-07 @ Sturm Graz W 2-056.8 1663 1588 32.57% 28.24% 39.19%-0.12 +23.2 12
2003-08-09 Austria Salzburg W 3-266.6 1597 1626 45.45% 27.84% 26.71%+0.37 +8.2 3
2003-08-09 @ FC Superfund L 2-366.6 1626 1597 26.71% 27.84% 45.45%-0.37 -8.2 0
2003-08-16 Austria Salzburg W 4-050.2 1565 1618 42.37% 28.09% 29.54%+0.25 +35.7 4
2003-08-16 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 0-450.2 1618 1565 29.54% 28.09% 42.37%-0.25 -35.7 0
2003-08-16 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 3-266.3 1535 1606 39.82% 28.22% 31.96%+0.15 +9.5 8
2003-08-16 @ Mattersburg L 2-366.3 1606 1535 31.96% 28.22% 39.82%-0.15 -9.5 7
2003-08-16 Sturm Graz W 2-157.7 1605 1565 53.83% 26.56% 19.61%+0.74 +6.7 6
2003-08-16 @ FC Superfund L 1-257.7 1565 1605 19.61% 26.56% 53.83%-0.74 -6.7 1
2003-08-17 Austria Wien D 2-277.3 1687 1725 44.19% 27.96% 27.85%+0.32 -0.8 13
2003-08-17 @ Rapid Wien D 2-277.3 1725 1687 27.85% 27.96% 44.19%-0.32 +0.8 7
2003-08-17 FC Karnten W 5-150.4 1739 1605 63.32% 23.77% 12.92%+1.23 +14.2 12
2003-08-17 @ Grazer AK L 1-550.4 1605 1739 12.92% 23.77% 63.32%-1.23 -14.2 6
2003-08-23 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-157.9 1726 1601 62.55% 24.05% 13.40%+1.19 +4.7 10
2003-08-23 @ Austria Wien L 1-257.9 1601 1726 13.40% 24.05% 62.55%-1.19 -4.7 4
2003-08-23 FC Superfund D 0-064.0 1590 1611 46.51% 27.73% 25.76%+0.41 -1.5 7
2003-08-23 @ FC Karnten D 0-064.0 1611 1590 25.76% 27.73% 46.51%-0.41 +1.5 7
2003-08-23 Grazer AK W 4-162.5 1597 1753 28.24% 27.99% 43.77%-0.30 +30.9 10
2003-08-23 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 1-462.5 1753 1597 43.77% 27.99% 28.24%+0.30 -30.9 12
2003-08-23 Austria Salzburg W 4-259.9 1558 1582 46.14% 27.77% 26.09%+0.40 +13.2 4
2003-08-23 @ Sturm Graz L 2-459.9 1582 1558 26.09% 27.77% 46.14%-0.40 -13.2 0
2003-08-24 Rapid Wien L 1-456.8 1544 1686 30.09% 28.13% 41.78%-0.22 -23.4 8
2003-08-24 @ Mattersburg W 4-156.8 1686 1544 41.78% 28.13% 30.09%+0.22 +23.4 16
2003-08-30 Mattersburg D 1-171.5 1722 1521 69.05% 21.31% 9.64%+1.59 -4.2 13
2003-08-30 @ Grazer AK D 1-171.5 1521 1722 9.64% 21.31% 69.05%-1.59 +4.2 9
2003-08-30 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 3-158.0 1613 1628 47.32% 27.64% 25.04%+0.45 +14.3 10
2003-08-30 @ FC Superfund L 1-358.0 1628 1613 25.04% 27.64% 47.32%-0.45 -14.3 10
2003-08-30 Sturm Graz W 2-158.2 1596 1571 52.09% 26.90% 21.00%+0.66 +7.1 7
2003-08-30 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 1-258.2 1571 1596 21.00% 26.90% 52.09%-0.66 -7.1 4
2003-08-31 Austria Wien D 0-065.6 1569 1731 27.50% 27.92% 44.58%-0.33 +1.2 1
2003-08-31 @ Austria Salzburg D 0-065.6 1731 1569 44.58% 27.92% 27.50%+0.33 -1.2 11
2003-08-31 FC Karnten D 2-277.3 1709 1589 62.04% 24.23% 13.72%+1.16 -2.5 17
2003-08-31 @ Rapid Wien D 2-277.3 1589 1709 13.72% 24.23% 62.04%-1.16 +2.5 8
2003-09-10 FC Superfund W 1-053.2 1730 1627 60.34% 24.81% 14.85%+1.07 +5.5 14
2003-09-10 @ Austria Wien L 0-153.2 1627 1730 14.85% 24.81% 60.34%-1.07 -5.5 10
2003-09-10 Austria Salzburg L 0-157.4 1525 1570 43.44% 28.02% 28.55%+0.29 -13.3 9
2003-09-10 @ Mattersburg W 1-057.4 1570 1525 28.55% 28.02% 43.44%-0.29 +13.3 4
2003-09-13 Austria Wien D 0-065.7 1564 1735 26.45% 27.81% 45.74%-0.38 +1.4 5
2003-09-13 @ Sturm Graz D 0-065.7 1735 1564 45.74% 27.81% 26.45%+0.38 -1.4 15
2003-09-13 FC Karnten W 5-048.9 1583 1591 48.11% 27.54% 24.36%+0.48 +37.8 7
2003-09-13 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-548.9 1591 1583 24.36% 27.54% 48.11%-0.48 -37.8 8
2003-09-13 Mattersburg D 1-167.9 1622 1512 61.06% 24.57% 14.37%+1.11 -3.2 11
2003-09-13 @ FC Superfund D 1-167.9 1512 1622 14.37% 24.57% 61.06%-1.11 +3.2 10
2003-09-13 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 0-161.9 1603 1613 47.89% 27.57% 24.55%+0.47 -14.4 7
2003-09-13 @ Admira Wacker Modling W 1-061.9 1613 1603 24.55% 27.57% 47.89%-0.47 +14.4 13
2003-09-14 Grazer AK W 2-163.2 1707 1718 47.77% 27.58% 24.65%+0.47 +8.1 20
2003-09-14 @ Rapid Wien L 1-263.2 1718 1707 24.65% 27.58% 47.77%-0.47 -8.2 13
2003-09-17 FC Superfund W 4-049.9 1589 1619 45.38% 27.85% 26.78%+0.37 +33.1 10
2003-09-17 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 0-449.9 1619 1589 26.78% 27.85% 45.38%-0.37 -33.1 11
2003-09-17 Austria Wien L 1-366.5 1710 1734 46.10% 27.78% 26.13%+0.40 -22.8 13
2003-09-17 @ Grazer AK W 3-166.5 1734 1710 26.13% 27.78% 46.10%-0.40 +22.8 18
2003-09-17 Rapid Wien L 1-266.6 1628 1715 37.55% 28.28% 34.17%+0.06 -11.2 13
2003-09-17 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 2-166.6 1715 1628 34.17% 28.28% 37.55%-0.06 +11.2 23
2003-09-20 Admira Wacker Modling D 2-275.4 1616 1622 48.47% 27.49% 24.04%+0.50 -1.2 14
2003-09-20 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 2-275.4 1622 1616 24.04% 27.49% 48.47%-0.50 +1.2 11
2003-09-20 FC Superfund W 4-260.5 1515 1586 39.92% 28.22% 31.86%+0.15 +15.4 13
2003-09-20 @ Mattersburg L 2-460.5 1586 1515 31.86% 28.22% 39.92%-0.15 -15.4 11
2003-09-20 Austria Salzburg L 1-264.6 1554 1621 40.36% 28.20% 31.44%+0.17 -11.8 8
2003-09-20 @ FC Karnten W 2-164.6 1621 1554 31.44% 28.20% 40.36%-0.17 +11.8 10
2003-09-20 Sturm Graz D 1-172.5 1757 1565 68.28% 21.67% 10.05%+1.54 -4.1 19
2003-09-20 @ Austria Wien D 1-172.5 1565 1757 10.05% 21.67% 68.28%-1.54 +4.1 6
2003-09-21 Rapid Wien W 2-055.1 1687 1726 44.14% 27.96% 27.90%+0.32 +18.0 16
2003-09-21 @ Grazer AK L 0-255.1 1726 1687 27.90% 27.96% 44.14%-0.32 -18.0 23
2003-09-27 Grazer AK D 1-170.6 1623 1705 38.31% 28.27% 33.42%+0.09 -0.3 12
2003-09-27 @ Admira Wacker Modling D 1-170.6 1705 1623 33.42% 28.27% 38.31%-0.09 +0.3 17
2003-09-27 Mattersburg L 0-160.2 1569 1531 53.69% 26.59% 19.73%+0.73 -15.9 6
2003-09-27 @ Sturm Graz W 1-060.2 1531 1569 19.73% 26.59% 53.69%-0.73 +15.9 16
2003-09-27 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 0-163.4 1633 1615 51.23% 27.06% 21.71%+0.62 -15.2 10
2003-09-27 @ Austria Salzburg W 1-063.4 1615 1633 21.71% 27.06% 51.23%-0.62 +15.2 17
2003-09-28 FC Karnten W 3-044.3 1753 1542 69.84% 20.92% 9.23%+1.64 +9.1 22
2003-09-28 @ Austria Wien L 0-344.3 1542 1753 9.23% 20.92% 69.84%-1.64 -9.1 8
2003-09-28 Rapid Wien L 1-263.7 1570 1708 30.53% 28.15% 41.32%-0.21 -9.6 11
2003-09-28 @ FC Superfund W 2-163.7 1708 1570 41.32% 28.15% 30.53%+0.21 +9.6 26
2003-10-01 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-053.3 1533 1623 37.17% 28.29% 34.54%+0.05 +21.1 11
2003-10-01 @ FC Karnten L 0-253.3 1623 1533 34.54% 28.29% 37.17%-0.05 -21.1 12
2003-10-01 Grazer AK W 2-167.1 1554 1705 28.81% 28.04% 43.16%-0.28 +12.5 9
2003-10-01 @ Sturm Graz L 1-267.1 1705 1554 43.16% 28.04% 28.81%+0.28 -12.5 17
2003-10-03 Austria Wien W 4-268.5 1630 1762 31.42% 28.20% 40.38%-0.17 +18.3 20
2003-10-03 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 2-468.5 1762 1630 40.38% 28.20% 31.42%+0.17 -18.4 22
2003-10-04 Admira Wacker Modling D 1-167.2 1546 1602 42.02% 28.11% 29.87%+0.23 -0.8 17
2003-10-04 @ Mattersburg D 1-167.2 1602 1546 29.87% 28.11% 42.02%-0.23 +0.8 13
2003-10-04 FC Superfund D 1-170.9 1693 1560 63.16% 23.83% 13.02%+1.22 -3.5 18
2003-10-04 @ Grazer AK D 1-170.9 1560 1693 13.02% 23.83% 63.16%-1.22 +3.5 12
2003-10-04 Austria Salzburg W 1-053.0 1718 1618 60.12% 24.88% 14.99%+1.06 +5.5 29
2003-10-04 @ Rapid Wien L 0-153.0 1618 1718 14.99% 24.88% 60.12%-1.06 -5.5 10
2003-10-05 Sturm Graz L 0-354.0 1554 1566 47.63% 27.60% 24.77%+0.46 -39.2 11
2003-10-05 @ FC Karnten W 3-054.0 1566 1554 24.77% 27.60% 47.63%-0.46 +39.2 12
2003-10-18 FC Superfund L 0-259.3 1612 1564 54.71% 26.36% 18.93%+0.78 -30.4 10
2003-10-18 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-059.3 1564 1612 18.93% 26.36% 54.71%-0.78 +30.4 15
2003-10-18 Rapid Wien W 4-267.5 1602 1723 32.79% 28.25% 38.96%-0.12 +17.9 16
2003-10-18 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 2-467.5 1723 1602 38.96% 28.25% 32.79%+0.12 -17.9 29
2003-10-18 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-169.6 1605 1649 43.57% 28.01% 28.42%+0.29 -0.9 13
2003-10-18 @ Sturm Graz D 1-169.6 1649 1605 28.42% 28.01% 43.57%-0.29 +0.9 21
2003-10-19 Grazer AK L 0-166.3 1743 1689 55.37% 26.21% 18.43%+0.81 -16.3 22
2003-10-19 @ Austria Wien W 1-066.3 1689 1743 18.43% 26.21% 55.37%-0.81 +16.3 21
2003-10-19 Mattersburg L 1-262.4 1515 1546 45.22% 27.86% 26.91%+0.36 -13.0 11
2003-10-19 @ FC Karnten W 2-162.4 1546 1515 26.91% 27.86% 45.22%-0.36 +13.0 20
2003-10-25 Admira Wacker Modling W 3-050.1 1594 1620 45.89% 27.80% 26.32%+0.39 +25.0 18
2003-10-25 @ FC Superfund L 0-350.1 1620 1594 26.32% 27.80% 45.89%-0.39 -25.0 16
2003-10-25 Austria Wien L 0-156.8 1559 1727 26.78% 27.85% 45.37%-0.37 -9.2 20
2003-10-25 @ Mattersburg W 1-056.8 1727 1559 45.37% 27.85% 26.78%+0.37 +9.2 25
2003-10-25 FC Karnten W 3-259.2 1650 1502 64.59% 23.27% 12.14%+1.31 +4.0 24
2003-10-25 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 2-359.2 1502 1650 12.14% 23.27% 64.59%-1.31 -4.0 11
2003-10-25 Austria Salzburg W 1-051.8 1705 1582 62.39% 24.11% 13.50%+1.18 +5.0 24
2003-10-25 @ Grazer AK L 0-151.8 1582 1705 13.50% 24.11% 62.39%-1.18 -5.0 10
2003-10-26 Sturm Graz W 2-049.3 1705 1604 60.21% 24.85% 14.94%+1.06 +10.4 32
2003-10-26 @ Rapid Wien L 0-249.3 1604 1705 14.94% 24.85% 60.21%-1.06 -10.4 13
2003-10-29 Admira Wacker Modling L 1-266.3 1577 1595 46.82% 27.70% 25.49%+0.43 -13.3 10
2003-10-29 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-166.3 1595 1577 25.49% 27.70% 46.82%-0.43 +13.3 19
2003-10-29 FC Superfund L 0-161.3 1594 1619 45.96% 27.79% 26.25%+0.39 -13.9 13
2003-10-29 @ Sturm Graz W 1-061.3 1619 1594 26.25% 27.79% 45.96%-0.39 +13.9 21
2003-10-29 Grazer AK L 1-453.6 1498 1710 22.00% 27.12% 50.88%-0.60 -18.2 11
2003-10-29 @ FC Karnten W 4-153.6 1710 1498 50.88% 27.12% 22.00%+0.60 +18.2 27
2003-10-29 Mattersburg W 2-156.5 1654 1549 60.53% 24.75% 14.72%+1.08 +5.1 27
2003-10-29 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 1-256.5 1549 1654 14.72% 24.75% 60.53%-1.08 -5.1 20
2003-10-29 Rapid Wien W 2-053.1 1736 1716 51.57% 27.00% 21.43%+0.63 +14.5 28
2003-10-29 @ Austria Wien L 0-253.1 1716 1736 21.43% 27.00% 51.57%-0.63 -14.5 32
2003-11-01 Austria Wien L 0-255.3 1609 1751 29.98% 28.12% 41.90%-0.23 -19.0 19
2003-11-01 @ Admira Wacker Modling W 2-055.3 1751 1609 41.90% 28.12% 29.98%+0.23 +19.0 31
2003-11-01 FC Karnten W 3-041.7 1633 1480 65.08% 23.07% 11.85%+1.34 +11.9 24
2003-11-01 @ FC Superfund L 0-341.7 1480 1633 11.85% 23.07% 65.08%-1.34 -11.9 11
2003-11-01 Mattersburg W 3-152.7 1701 1544 65.38% 22.95% 11.67%+1.36 +7.0 35
2003-11-01 @ Rapid Wien L 1-352.7 1544 1701 11.67% 22.95% 65.38%-1.36 -7.0 20
2003-11-02 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 2-051.0 1729 1659 57.03% 25.79% 17.18%+0.89 +11.9 30
2003-11-02 @ Grazer AK L 0-251.0 1659 1729 17.18% 25.79% 57.03%-0.89 -11.9 27
2003-11-02 Sturm Graz W 5-048.4 1563 1580 47.05% 27.67% 25.28%+0.44 +38.9 13
2003-11-02 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-548.4 1580 1563 25.28% 27.67% 47.05%-0.44 -38.9 13
2003-11-08 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-050.8 1541 1590 42.92% 28.05% 29.02%+0.27 +18.6 16
2003-11-08 @ Sturm Graz L 0-250.8 1590 1541 29.02% 28.05% 42.92%-0.27 -18.5 19
2003-11-08 FC Superfund L 1-269.3 1647 1645 49.37% 27.36% 23.27%+0.53 -13.9 27
2003-11-08 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 2-169.3 1645 1647 23.27% 27.36% 49.37%-0.53 +13.9 27
2003-11-08 Grazer AK D 0-065.5 1537 1741 22.95% 27.30% 49.75%-0.55 +1.9 21
2003-11-08 @ Mattersburg D 0-065.5 1741 1537 49.75% 27.30% 22.95%+0.55 -1.9 31
2003-11-09 Rapid Wien W 2-059.1 1468 1708 19.41% 26.50% 54.09%-0.75 +30.1 14
2003-11-09 @ FC Karnten L 0-259.1 1708 1468 54.09% 26.50% 19.41%+0.75 -30.1 35
2003-11-09 Austria Salzburg D 0-068.0 1770 1602 66.29% 22.56% 11.14%+1.41 -4.3 32
2003-11-09 @ Austria Wien D 0-068.0 1602 1770 11.14% 22.56% 66.29%-1.41 +4.3 14
2003-11-22 Austria Wien L 2-467.0 1659 1765 34.80% 28.29% 36.91%-0.04 -16.5 27
2003-11-22 @ FC Superfund W 4-267.0 1765 1659 36.91% 28.29% 34.80%+0.04 +16.5 35
2003-11-22 FC Karnten W 1-047.9 1571 1498 57.40% 25.69% 16.91%+0.91 +6.2 22
2003-11-22 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 0-147.9 1498 1571 16.91% 25.69% 57.40%-0.91 -6.2 14
2003-11-22 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 2-276.8 1678 1633 54.39% 26.43% 19.18%+0.76 -1.7 36
2003-11-22 @ Rapid Wien D 2-276.8 1633 1678 19.18% 26.43% 54.39%-0.76 +1.7 28
2003-11-23 Mattersburg W 4-044.9 1606 1539 56.78% 25.85% 17.37%+0.88 +22.8 17
2003-11-23 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-444.9 1539 1606 17.37% 25.85% 56.78%-0.88 -22.8 21
2003-11-23 Sturm Graz W 1-050.5 1739 1560 67.26% 22.14% 10.60%+1.47 +3.9 34
2003-11-23 @ Grazer AK L 0-150.5 1560 1739 10.60% 22.14% 67.26%-1.47 -3.9 16
2003-11-29 Admira Wacker Modling W 5-148.7 1782 1577 69.37% 21.15% 9.48%+1.61 +10.2 38
2003-11-29 @ Austria Wien L 1-548.7 1577 1782 9.48% 21.15% 69.37%-1.61 -10.2 22
2003-11-29 FC Superfund D 2-274.4 1556 1643 37.62% 28.28% 34.11%+0.07 -0.2 17
2003-11-29 @ Sturm Graz D 2-274.4 1643 1556 34.11% 28.28% 37.62%-0.07 +0.2 28
2003-11-29 Rapid Wien D 1-168.4 1516 1676 27.76% 27.95% 44.30%-0.32 +1.0 22
2003-11-29 @ Mattersburg D 1-168.4 1676 1516 44.30% 27.95% 27.76%+0.32 -1.0 37
2003-11-30 Grazer AK W 1-061.1 1635 1742 34.63% 28.29% 37.08%-0.05 +11.8 31
2003-11-30 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 0-161.1 1742 1635 37.08% 28.29% 34.63%+0.05 -11.8 34
2003-11-30 Austria Salzburg L 0-349.1 1491 1629 30.54% 28.15% 41.30%-0.21 -28.0 14
2003-11-30 @ FC Karnten W 3-049.1 1629 1491 41.30% 28.15% 30.54%+0.21 +28.0 20
2003-12-06 FC Karnten W 4-146.3 1731 1463 74.09% 18.70% 7.21%+1.94 +5.8 37
2003-12-06 @ Grazer AK L 1-446.3 1463 1731 7.21% 18.70% 74.09%-1.94 -5.8 14
2003-12-06 Mattersburg W 2-045.8 1567 1517 54.88% 26.32% 18.80%+0.79 +12.9 25
2003-12-06 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 0-245.8 1517 1567 18.80% 26.32% 54.88%-0.79 -12.9 22
2003-12-06 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 3-050.6 1643 1647 48.66% 27.46% 23.88%+0.50 +23.1 31
2003-12-06 @ FC Superfund L 0-350.6 1647 1643 23.88% 27.46% 48.66%-0.50 -23.1 31
2003-12-07 Austria Wien L 0-159.6 1657 1792 30.95% 28.18% 40.88%-0.19 -10.3 20
2003-12-07 @ Austria Salzburg W 1-059.6 1792 1657 40.88% 28.18% 30.95%+0.19 +10.3 41
2003-12-07 Sturm Graz D 1-170.4 1675 1556 62.01% 24.25% 13.75%+1.16 -3.3 38
2003-12-07 @ Rapid Wien D 1-170.4 1556 1675 13.75% 24.25% 62.01%-1.16 +3.3 18
2004-02-21 Admira Wacker Modling D 0-058.9 1458 1580 32.62% 28.24% 39.14%-0.12 +0.4 15
2004-02-21 @ FC Karnten D 0-058.9 1580 1458 39.14% 28.24% 32.62%+0.12 -0.4 26
2004-02-21 FC Superfund L 0-168.2 1802 1666 63.56% 23.67% 12.76%+1.25 -18.3 41
2004-02-21 @ Austria Wien W 1-068.2 1666 1802 12.76% 23.67% 63.56%-1.25 +18.3 34
2004-02-21 Grazer AK L 1-453.6 1504 1736 20.18% 26.70% 53.11%-0.70 -16.9 22
2004-02-21 @ Mattersburg W 4-153.6 1736 1504 53.11% 26.70% 20.18%+0.70 +16.9 40
2004-02-21 Austria Salzburg D 0-063.9 1559 1647 37.43% 28.28% 34.29%+0.06 -0.2 19
2004-02-21 @ Sturm Graz D 0-063.9 1647 1559 34.29% 28.28% 37.43%-0.06 +0.2 21
2004-02-22 Rapid Wien D 1-170.3 1624 1672 42.89% 28.06% 29.05%+0.27 -0.9 32
2004-02-22 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-170.3 1672 1624 29.05% 28.06% 42.89%-0.27 +0.9 39
2004-02-28 Austria Salzburg W 1-055.0 1684 1647 53.46% 26.63% 19.90%+0.72 +7.2 37
2004-02-28 @ FC Superfund L 0-155.0 1647 1684 19.90% 26.63% 53.46%-0.72 -7.2 21
2004-02-28 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-166.1 1488 1623 30.90% 28.17% 40.92%-0.19 +0.6 23
2004-02-28 @ Mattersburg D 1-166.1 1623 1488 40.92% 28.17% 30.90%+0.19 -0.6 33
2004-02-28 Sturm Graz D 0-062.6 1580 1559 51.62% 26.99% 21.39%+0.63 -2.2 27
2004-02-28 @ Admira Wacker Modling D 0-062.6 1559 1580 21.39% 26.99% 51.62%-0.63 +2.2 20
2004-02-29 Austria Wien D 0-067.2 1753 1784 45.25% 27.86% 26.89%+0.36 -1.3 41
2004-02-29 @ Grazer AK D 0-067.2 1784 1753 26.89% 27.86% 45.25%-0.36 +1.3 42
2004-03-06 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 3-268.1 1458 1622 27.30% 27.90% 44.79%-0.34 +12.2 18
2004-03-06 @ FC Karnten L 2-368.1 1622 1458 44.79% 27.90% 27.30%+0.34 -12.2 33
2004-03-07 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-157.5 1691 1577 61.46% 24.44% 14.10%+1.13 +4.9 40
2004-03-07 @ FC Superfund L 1-257.5 1577 1691 14.10% 24.44% 61.46%-1.13 -4.9 27
2004-03-07 Grazer AK L 1-266.0 1640 1752 34.02% 28.28% 37.70%-0.07 -10.4 21
2004-03-07 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-166.0 1752 1640 37.70% 28.28% 34.02%+0.07 +10.5 44
2004-03-07 Mattersburg W 4-041.6 1561 1488 57.35% 25.70% 16.95%+0.91 +22.3 23
2004-03-07 @ Sturm Graz L 0-441.6 1488 1561 16.95% 25.70% 57.35%-0.91 -22.3 23
2004-03-07 Rapid Wien D 1-172.7 1785 1673 61.31% 24.49% 14.20%+1.12 -3.2 43
2004-03-07 @ Austria Wien D 1-172.7 1673 1785 14.20% 24.49% 61.31%-1.12 +3.2 40
2004-03-13 FC Superfund D 0-066.5 1676 1696 46.64% 27.72% 25.65%+0.42 -1.5 41
2004-03-13 @ Rapid Wien D 0-066.5 1696 1676 25.65% 27.72% 46.64%-0.42 +1.5 41
2004-03-13 Austria Wien L 0-157.8 1610 1782 26.32% 27.80% 45.89%-0.39 -9.1 33
2004-03-13 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 1-057.8 1782 1610 45.89% 27.80% 26.32%+0.39 +9.1 46
2004-03-13 FC Karnten W 2-042.3 1466 1470 48.59% 27.47% 23.94%+0.50 +15.9 26
2004-03-13 @ Mattersburg L 0-242.3 1470 1466 23.94% 27.47% 48.59%-0.50 -15.9 18
2004-03-13 Austria Salzburg W 3-267.3 1572 1630 41.74% 28.13% 30.13%+0.22 +9.1 30
2004-03-13 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 2-367.3 1630 1572 30.13% 28.13% 41.74%-0.22 -9.1 21
2004-03-14 Sturm Graz D 1-172.6 1762 1583 67.28% 22.13% 10.59%+1.47 -4.0 45
2004-03-14 @ Grazer AK D 1-172.6 1583 1762 10.59% 22.13% 67.28%-1.47 +4.0 24
2004-03-17 FC Karnten W 2-041.8 1587 1454 63.21% 23.81% 12.98%+1.23 +9.0 27
2004-03-17 @ Sturm Graz L 0-241.8 1454 1587 12.98% 23.81% 63.21%-1.23 -9.0 18
2004-03-17 Grazer AK D 3-381.3 1698 1759 41.24% 28.16% 30.60%+0.20 -0.4 42
2004-03-17 @ FC Superfund D 3-381.3 1759 1698 30.60% 28.16% 41.24%-0.20 +0.4 46
2004-03-17 Mattersburg W 1-047.2 1791 1482 76.98% 17.03% 5.99%+2.16 +2.0 49
2004-03-17 @ Austria Wien L 0-147.2 1482 1791 5.99% 17.03% 76.98%-2.16 -2.0 26
2004-03-17 Rapid Wien W 1-059.0 1581 1675 36.69% 28.29% 35.02%+0.03 +11.3 33
2004-03-17 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 0-159.0 1675 1581 35.02% 28.29% 36.69%-0.03 -11.3 41
2004-03-17 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 2-050.5 1620 1601 51.50% 27.01% 21.49%+0.63 +14.5 24
2004-03-17 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-250.5 1601 1620 21.49% 27.01% 51.50%-0.63 -14.6 33
2004-03-20 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-157.1 1759 1593 66.17% 22.61% 11.21%+1.40 +3.9 49
2004-03-20 @ Grazer AK L 1-257.1 1593 1759 11.21% 22.61% 66.17%-1.40 -3.9 33
2004-03-20 FC Superfund D 0-063.6 1480 1697 21.53% 27.02% 51.44%-0.63 +2.2 27
2004-03-20 @ Mattersburg D 0-063.6 1697 1480 51.44% 27.02% 21.53%+0.63 -2.2 43
2004-03-20 Austria Salzburg W 2-051.5 1663 1635 52.50% 26.83% 20.68%+0.68 +14.1 44
2004-03-20 @ Rapid Wien L 0-251.5 1635 1663 20.68% 26.83% 52.50%-0.68 -14.1 24
2004-03-20 Sturm Graz W 2-159.9 1586 1596 47.89% 27.56% 24.54%+0.47 +8.1 36
2004-03-20 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 1-259.9 1596 1586 24.54% 27.56% 47.89%-0.47 -8.1 27
2004-03-21 Austria Wien W 2-062.7 1445 1793 12.05% 23.21% 64.74%-1.32 +35.0 21
2004-03-21 @ FC Karnten L 0-262.7 1793 1445 64.74% 23.21% 12.05%+1.32 -35.0 49
2004-03-27 FC Karnten D 1-170.2 1695 1480 70.16% 20.77% 9.07%+1.66 -4.3 44
2004-03-27 @ FC Superfund D 1-170.2 1480 1695 9.07% 20.77% 70.16%-1.66 +4.3 22
2004-03-27 Mattersburg W 1-047.1 1621 1482 63.78% 23.59% 12.63%+1.26 +4.7 27
2004-03-27 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-147.1 1482 1621 12.63% 23.59% 63.78%-1.26 -4.7 27
2004-03-27 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 0-063.6 1589 1594 48.47% 27.49% 24.05%+0.50 -1.8 34
2004-03-27 @ Admira Wacker Modling D 0-063.6 1594 1589 24.05% 27.49% 48.47%-0.50 +1.8 37
2004-03-27 Sturm Graz W 5-149.5 1758 1588 66.52% 22.47% 11.02%+1.43 +12.0 52
2004-03-27 @ Austria Wien L 1-549.5 1588 1758 11.02% 22.47% 66.52%-1.43 -12.0 27
2004-03-28 Rapid Wien W 2-160.0 1763 1678 58.64% 25.34% 16.02%+0.98 +5.6 52
2004-03-28 @ Grazer AK L 1-260.0 1678 1763 16.02% 25.34% 58.64%-0.98 -5.6 44
2004-04-03 Admira Wacker Modling D 2-274.3 1596 1587 50.22% 27.23% 22.55%+0.57 -1.3 38
2004-04-03 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 2-274.3 1587 1596 22.55% 27.23% 50.22%-0.57 +1.3 35
2004-04-03 FC Superfund D 1-168.2 1485 1691 22.65% 27.25% 50.10%-0.57 +1.8 23
2004-04-03 @ FC Karnten D 1-168.2 1691 1485 50.10% 27.25% 22.65%+0.57 -1.8 45
2004-04-03 Grazer AK L 0-455.6 1672 1768 36.23% 28.29% 35.47%+0.01 -41.5 44
2004-04-03 @ Rapid Wien W 4-055.6 1768 1672 35.47% 28.29% 36.23%-0.01 +41.5 55
2004-04-03 Austria Salzburg W 2-163.2 1477 1626 29.21% 28.07% 42.72%-0.26 +12.4 30
2004-04-03 @ Mattersburg L 1-263.2 1626 1477 42.72% 28.07% 29.21%+0.26 -12.4 27
2004-04-04 Austria Wien L 1-359.1 1576 1770 23.90% 27.46% 48.64%-0.50 -13.8 27
2004-04-04 @ Sturm Graz W 3-159.1 1770 1576 48.64% 27.46% 23.90%+0.50 +13.8 55
2004-04-07 Austria Wien L 0-156.8 1588 1784 23.75% 27.44% 48.81%-0.51 -8.4 35
2004-04-07 @ Admira Wacker Modling W 1-056.8 1784 1588 48.81% 27.44% 23.75%+0.51 +8.4 58
2004-04-07 FC Karnten W 3-258.2 1613 1486 62.66% 24.01% 13.33%+1.20 +4.4 30
2004-04-07 @ Austria Salzburg L 2-358.2 1486 1613 13.33% 24.01% 62.66%-1.20 -4.4 23
2004-04-07 Mattersburg W 2-044.2 1630 1490 63.94% 23.53% 12.53%+1.27 +8.7 47
2004-04-07 @ Rapid Wien L 0-244.2 1490 1630 12.53% 23.53% 63.94%-1.27 -8.7 30
2004-04-07 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 1-050.6 1810 1595 70.19% 20.75% 9.06%+1.66 +3.2 58
2004-04-07 @ Grazer AK L 0-150.6 1595 1810 9.06% 20.75% 70.19%-1.66 -3.2 38
2004-04-07 Sturm Graz W 3-045.8 1689 1562 62.66% 24.01% 13.33%+1.20 +13.5 48
2004-04-07 @ FC Superfund L 0-345.8 1562 1689 13.33% 24.01% 62.66%-1.20 -13.5 27
2004-04-14 Admira Wacker Modling W 3-048.7 1481 1580 35.85% 28.29% 35.85%+0.00 +31.5 33
2004-04-14 @ Mattersburg L 0-348.7 1580 1481 35.85% 28.29% 35.85%+0.00 -31.5 35
2004-04-14 FC Superfund D 1-170.2 1592 1703 34.15% 28.28% 37.57%-0.06 +0.2 39
2004-04-14 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-170.2 1703 1592 37.57% 28.28% 34.15%+0.06 -0.2 49
2004-04-14 Grazer AK D 0-066.8 1482 1813 12.98% 23.80% 63.22%-1.23 +3.9 24
2004-04-14 @ FC Karnten D 0-066.8 1813 1482 63.22% 23.80% 12.98%+1.23 -3.9 59
2004-04-14 Rapid Wien L 1-264.0 1549 1639 37.11% 28.29% 34.60%+0.05 -11.1 27
2004-04-14 @ Sturm Graz W 2-164.0 1639 1549 34.60% 28.29% 37.11%-0.05 +11.1 50
2004-04-14 Austria Salzburg W 3-046.3 1792 1618 66.91% 22.29% 10.80%+1.45 +10.8 61
2004-04-14 @ Austria Wien L 0-346.3 1618 1792 10.80% 22.29% 66.91%-1.45 -10.8 30
2004-04-17 FC Karnten D 1-164.1 1549 1486 56.29% 25.98% 17.73%+0.86 -2.6 36
2004-04-17 @ Admira Wacker Modling D 1-164.1 1486 1549 17.73% 25.98% 56.29%-0.86 +2.6 25
2004-04-17 Mattersburg W 1-048.1 1809 1512 76.13% 17.53% 6.34%+2.10 +2.1 62
2004-04-17 @ Grazer AK L 0-148.1 1512 1809 6.34% 17.53% 76.13%-2.10 -2.1 33
2004-04-17 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 0-065.3 1650 1592 55.85% 26.09% 18.06%+0.84 -2.8 51
2004-04-17 @ Rapid Wien D 0-065.3 1592 1650 18.06% 26.09% 55.85%-0.84 +2.8 40
2004-04-17 Sturm Graz D 0-063.1 1607 1538 56.97% 25.80% 17.22%+0.89 -3.0 31
2004-04-17 @ Austria Salzburg D 0-063.1 1538 1607 17.22% 25.80% 56.97%-0.89 +3.0 28
2004-04-18 Austria Wien D 1-171.7 1702 1803 35.60% 28.29% 36.10%-0.01 +0.0 50
2004-04-18 @ FC Superfund D 1-171.7 1803 1702 36.10% 28.29% 35.60%+0.01 -0.0 62
2004-04-24 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-047.8 1541 1546 48.49% 27.49% 24.03%+0.50 +16.0 31
2004-04-24 @ Sturm Graz L 0-247.8 1546 1541 24.03% 27.49% 48.49%-0.50 -16.0 36
2004-04-24 FC Superfund L 1-265.7 1604 1702 35.94% 28.29% 35.77%+0.00 -10.9 31
2004-04-24 @ Austria Salzburg W 2-165.7 1702 1604 35.77% 28.29% 35.94%+0.00 +10.9 53
2004-04-24 Mattersburg W 3-259.6 1595 1510 58.52% 25.37% 16.11%+0.97 +5.3 43
2004-04-24 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz L 2-359.6 1510 1595 16.11% 25.37% 58.52%-0.97 -5.3 33
2004-04-24 Rapid Wien L 0-154.0 1488 1647 27.90% 27.96% 44.14%-0.32 -9.5 25
2004-04-24 @ FC Karnten W 1-054.0 1647 1488 44.14% 27.96% 27.90%+0.32 +9.5 54
2004-04-25 Grazer AK L 1-367.6 1803 1811 48.13% 27.53% 24.34%+0.48 -23.6 62
2004-04-25 @ Austria Wien W 3-167.6 1811 1803 24.34% 27.53% 48.13%-0.48 +23.6 65
2004-05-01 FC Superfund L 1-261.3 1530 1713 25.08% 27.64% 47.28%-0.45 -8.3 36
2004-05-01 @ Admira Wacker Modling W 2-161.3 1713 1530 47.28% 27.64% 25.08%+0.45 +8.3 56
2004-05-01 FC Karnten D 1-166.2 1600 1479 62.11% 24.21% 13.68%+1.16 -3.3 44
2004-05-01 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 1-166.2 1479 1600 13.68% 24.21% 62.11%-1.16 +3.3 26
2004-05-01 Austria Salzburg W 3-044.8 1835 1593 72.24% 19.70% 8.06%+1.81 +7.8 68
2004-05-01 @ Grazer AK L 0-344.8 1593 1835 8.06% 19.70% 72.24%-1.81 -7.8 31
2004-05-01 Sturm Graz D 2-270.4 1505 1557 42.49% 28.08% 29.43%+0.25 -0.6 34
2004-05-01 @ Mattersburg D 2-270.4 1557 1505 29.43% 28.08% 42.49%-0.25 +0.6 32
2004-05-02 Austria Wien L 1-265.8 1657 1780 32.57% 28.24% 39.19%-0.12 -10.1 54
2004-05-02 @ Rapid Wien W 2-165.8 1780 1657 39.19% 28.24% 32.57%+0.12 +10.1 65
2004-05-05 FC Karnten W 3-258.1 1647 1482 66.04% 22.67% 11.29%+1.40 +3.7 57
2004-05-05 @ Rapid Wien L 2-358.1 1482 1647 11.29% 22.67% 66.04%-1.40 -3.7 26
2004-05-08 Admira Wacker Modling W 2-155.2 1585 1522 56.38% 25.96% 17.66%+0.86 +6.1 34
2004-05-08 @ Austria Salzburg L 1-255.2 1522 1585 17.66% 25.96% 56.38%-0.86 -6.1 36
2004-05-08 Mattersburg W 5-146.4 1479 1504 45.89% 27.80% 26.31%+0.39 +27.2 29
2004-05-08 @ FC Karnten L 1-546.4 1504 1479 26.31% 27.80% 45.89%-0.39 -27.2 34
2004-05-08 Rapid Wien W 2-050.9 1722 1651 57.16% 25.75% 17.08%+0.90 +11.9 59
2004-05-08 @ FC Superfund L 0-250.9 1651 1722 17.08% 25.75% 57.16%-0.90 -11.8 57
2004-05-08 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 4-150.8 1790 1597 68.44% 21.60% 9.96%+1.55 +8.3 68
2004-05-08 @ Austria Wien L 1-450.8 1597 1790 9.96% 21.60% 68.44%-1.55 -8.3 44
2004-05-09 Grazer AK L 0-250.6 1557 1843 15.89% 25.28% 58.83%-0.99 -11.1 32
2004-05-09 @ Sturm Graz W 2-050.6 1843 1557 58.83% 25.28% 15.89%+0.99 +11.1 71
2004-05-15 Admira Wacker Modling L 1-366.2 1639 1516 62.32% 24.14% 13.55%+1.18 -29.4 57
2004-05-15 @ Rapid Wien W 3-166.2 1516 1639 13.55% 24.14% 62.32%-1.18 +29.4 39
2004-05-15 FC Superfund D 1-173.1 1854 1733 62.06% 24.23% 13.71%+1.16 -3.3 72
2004-05-15 @ Grazer AK D 1-173.1 1733 1854 13.71% 24.23% 62.06%-1.16 +3.3 60
2004-05-15 Austria Wien W 4-166.0 1477 1798 13.58% 24.15% 62.27%-1.17 +41.5 37
2004-05-15 @ Mattersburg L 1-466.0 1798 1477 62.27% 24.15% 13.58%+1.17 -41.5 68
2004-05-15 Austria Salzburg D 2-274.2 1588 1591 48.74% 27.45% 23.81%+0.51 -1.2 45
2004-05-15 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz D 2-274.2 1591 1588 23.81% 27.45% 48.74%-0.51 +1.2 35
2004-05-15 Sturm Graz W 2-047.9 1506 1546 43.98% 27.97% 28.04%+0.31 +18.1 32
2004-05-15 @ FC Karnten L 0-247.9 1546 1506 28.04% 27.97% 43.98%-0.31 -18.1 32
2004-05-20 FC Karnten W 2-045.5 1757 1524 71.55% 20.06% 8.39%+1.76 +5.6 71
2004-05-20 @ Austria Wien L 0-245.5 1524 1757 8.39% 20.06% 71.55%-1.76 -5.6 32
2004-05-20 Grazer AK W 2-172.9 1545 1850 14.54% 24.66% 60.81%-1.09 +16.6 42
2004-05-20 @ Admira Wacker Modling L 1-272.9 1850 1545 60.81% 24.66% 14.54%+1.09 -16.6 72
2004-05-20 Mattersburg W 4-043.3 1737 1519 70.41% 20.64% 8.95%+1.68 +11.4 63
2004-05-20 @ FC Superfund L 0-443.3 1519 1737 8.95% 20.64% 70.41%-1.68 -11.4 37
2004-05-20 Rapid Wien W 2-051.5 1593 1609 47.05% 27.67% 25.28%+0.44 +16.7 38
2004-05-20 @ Austria Salzburg L 0-251.5 1609 1593 25.28% 27.67% 47.05%-0.44 -16.6 57
2004-05-20 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz W 4-154.0 1528 1587 41.51% 28.14% 30.35%+0.21 +23.5 35
2004-05-20 @ Sturm Graz L 1-454.0 1587 1528 30.35% 28.14% 41.51%-0.21 -23.5 45

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-03-21 12.05% @ FC Karnten 1445 2 Austria Wien 1793 0
2 2004-02-21 12.76% FC Superfund 1666 1 @ Austria Wien 1802 0
3 2004-05-15 13.55% Admira Wacker Modling 1516 3 @ Rapid Wien 1639 1
4 2004-05-15 13.58% @ Mattersburg 1477 4 Austria Wien 1798 1
5 2004-05-20 14.54% @ Admira Wacker Modling 1545 2 Grazer AK 1850 1
6 2003-10-19 18.43% Grazer AK 1689 1 @ Austria Wien 1743 0
7 2003-10-18 18.93% FC Superfund 1564 2 @ Austria Salzburg 1612 0
8 2003-11-09 19.41% @ FC Karnten 1468 2 Rapid Wien 1708 0
9 2003-09-27 19.73% Mattersburg 1531 1 @ Sturm Graz 1569 0
10 2003-09-27 21.71% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1615 1 @ Austria Salzburg 1633 0
11 2003-07-23 22.70% Rapid Wien 1643 2 @ Austria Salzburg 1651 1
12 2003-11-08 23.27% FC Superfund 1645 2 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1647 1
13 2004-04-25 24.34% Grazer AK 1811 3 @ Austria Wien 1803 1
14 2003-09-13 24.55% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1613 1 @ Admira Wacker Modling 1603 0
15 2003-10-05 24.77% Sturm Graz 1566 3 @ FC Karnten 1554 0
16 2003-10-29 25.49% Admira Wacker Modling 1595 2 @ Austria Salzburg 1577 1
17 2003-09-17 26.13% Austria Wien 1734 3 @ Grazer AK 1710 1
18 2003-10-29 26.25% FC Superfund 1619 1 @ Sturm Graz 1594 0
19 2003-10-19 26.91% Mattersburg 1546 2 @ FC Karnten 1515 1
20 2004-03-06 27.30% @ FC Karnten 1458 3 Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1622 2
21 2003-08-23 28.24% @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1597 4 Grazer AK 1753 1
22 2003-09-10 28.55% Austria Salzburg 1570 1 @ Mattersburg 1525 0
23 2003-10-01 28.81% @ Sturm Graz 1554 2 Grazer AK 1705 1
24 2004-04-03 29.21% @ Mattersburg 1477 2 Austria Salzburg 1626 1
25 2003-10-03 31.42% @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1630 4 Austria Wien 1762 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-05-15 41.55 @ Mattersburg 4 1477 13.58% Austria Wien 1 1798 62.27% 24.15%
2 2004-04-03 41.49 Grazer AK 4 1768 35.47% @ Rapid Wien 0 1672 36.23% 28.29%
3 2003-10-05 39.24 Sturm Graz 3 1566 24.77% @ FC Karnten 0 1554 47.63% 27.60%
4 2003-11-02 38.93 @ Austria Salzburg 5 1563 47.05% Sturm Graz 0 1580 25.28% 27.67%
5 2003-09-13 37.78 @ Austria Salzburg 5 1583 48.11% FC Karnten 0 1591 24.36% 27.54%
6 2003-08-16 35.68 @ Admira Wacker Modling 4 1565 42.37% Austria Salzburg 0 1618 29.54% 28.09%
7 2004-03-21 35.03 @ FC Karnten 2 1445 12.05% Austria Wien 0 1793 64.74% 23.21%
8 2003-09-17 33.06 @ Admira Wacker Modling 4 1589 45.38% FC Superfund 0 1619 26.78% 27.85%
9 2004-04-14 31.51 @ Mattersburg 3 1481 35.85% Admira Wacker Modling 0 1580 35.85% 28.29%
10 2003-08-23 30.90 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 4 1597 28.24% Grazer AK 1 1753 43.77% 27.99%
11 2003-10-18 30.38 FC Superfund 2 1564 18.93% @ Austria Salzburg 0 1612 54.71% 26.36%
12 2003-11-09 30.08 @ FC Karnten 2 1468 19.41% Rapid Wien 0 1708 54.09% 26.50%
13 2004-05-15 29.40 Admira Wacker Modling 3 1516 13.55% @ Rapid Wien 1 1639 62.32% 24.14%
14 2003-11-30 28.02 Austria Salzburg 3 1629 41.30% @ FC Karnten 0 1491 30.54% 28.15%
15 2004-05-08 27.18 @ FC Karnten 5 1479 45.89% Mattersburg 1 1504 26.31% 27.80%
16 2003-10-25 24.97 @ FC Superfund 3 1594 45.89% Admira Wacker Modling 0 1620 26.32% 27.80%
17 2004-04-25 23.60 Grazer AK 3 1811 24.34% @ Austria Wien 1 1803 48.13% 27.53%
18 2004-05-20 23.51 @ Sturm Graz 4 1528 41.51% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1 1587 30.35% 28.14%
19 2003-08-24 23.36 Rapid Wien 4 1686 41.78% @ Mattersburg 1 1544 30.09% 28.13%
20 2003-08-07 23.16 Rapid Wien 2 1663 32.57% @ Sturm Graz 0 1588 39.19% 28.24%
21 2003-12-06 23.09 @ FC Superfund 3 1643 48.66% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 0 1647 23.88% 27.46%
22 2003-11-23 22.83 @ Austria Salzburg 4 1606 56.78% Mattersburg 0 1539 17.37% 25.85%
23 2003-09-17 22.78 Austria Wien 3 1734 26.13% @ Grazer AK 1 1710 46.10% 27.78%
24 2004-03-07 22.32 @ Sturm Graz 4 1561 57.35% Mattersburg 0 1488 16.95% 25.70%
25 2003-07-23 22.28 @ Austria Wien 4 1692 57.39% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 0 1619 16.92% 25.69%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-03-17 81.3 @ FC Superfund 3 1698 41.24% Grazer AK 3 1759 30.60% 28.16%
2 2003-08-17 77.3 @ Rapid Wien 2 1687 44.19% Austria Wien 2 1725 27.85% 27.96%
3 2003-08-31 77.3 @ Rapid Wien 2 1709 62.04% FC Karnten 2 1589 13.72% 24.23%
4 2003-11-22 76.8 @ Rapid Wien 2 1678 54.39% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 2 1633 19.18% 26.43%
5 2003-09-20 75.4 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 2 1616 48.47% Admira Wacker Modling 2 1622 24.04% 27.49%
6 2003-11-29 74.4 @ Sturm Graz 2 1556 37.62% FC Superfund 2 1643 34.11% 28.28%
7 2004-04-03 74.3 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 2 1596 50.22% Admira Wacker Modling 2 1587 22.55% 27.23%
8 2004-05-15 74.2 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 2 1588 48.74% Austria Salzburg 2 1591 23.81% 27.45%
9 2004-05-15 73.1 @ Grazer AK 1 1854 62.06% FC Superfund 1 1733 13.71% 24.23%
10 2004-05-20 72.9 @ Admira Wacker Modling 2 1545 14.54% Grazer AK 1 1850 60.81% 24.66%
11 2004-03-07 72.7 @ Austria Wien 1 1785 61.31% Rapid Wien 1 1673 14.20% 24.49%
12 2004-03-14 72.6 @ Grazer AK 1 1762 67.28% Sturm Graz 1 1583 10.59% 22.13%
13 2003-09-20 72.5 @ Austria Wien 1 1757 68.28% Sturm Graz 1 1565 10.05% 21.67%
14 2004-04-18 71.7 @ FC Superfund 1 1702 35.60% Austria Wien 1 1803 36.10% 28.29%
15 2003-08-30 71.5 @ Grazer AK 1 1722 69.05% Mattersburg 1 1521 9.64% 21.31%
16 2003-10-04 70.9 @ Grazer AK 1 1693 63.16% FC Superfund 1 1560 13.02% 23.83%
17 2003-09-27 70.6 @ Admira Wacker Modling 1 1623 38.31% Grazer AK 1 1705 33.42% 28.27%
18 2003-12-07 70.4 @ Rapid Wien 1 1675 62.01% Sturm Graz 1 1556 13.75% 24.25%
19 2004-05-01 70.4 @ Mattersburg 2 1505 42.49% Sturm Graz 2 1557 29.43% 28.08%
20 2004-02-22 70.3 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1 1624 42.89% Rapid Wien 1 1672 29.05% 28.06%
21 2004-03-27 70.2 @ FC Superfund 1 1695 70.16% FC Karnten 1 1480 9.07% 20.77%
22 2004-04-14 70.2 @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1 1592 34.15% FC Superfund 1 1703 37.57% 28.28%
23 2003-10-18 69.6 @ Sturm Graz 1 1605 43.57% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1 1649 28.42% 28.01%
24 2003-07-23 69.5 Rapid Wien 2 1643 22.70% @ Austria Salzburg 1 1651 50.04% 27.26%
25 2003-11-08 69.3 FC Superfund 2 1645 23.27% @ Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 1 1647 49.37% 27.36%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-03-07 41.6 @ Sturm Graz 4 1561 57.35% Mattersburg 0 1488 16.95% 25.70%
2 2003-11-01 41.7 @ FC Superfund 3 1633 65.08% FC Karnten 0 1480 11.85% 23.07%
3 2004-03-17 41.8 @ Sturm Graz 2 1587 63.21% FC Karnten 0 1454 12.98% 23.81%
4 2004-03-13 42.3 @ Mattersburg 2 1466 48.59% FC Karnten 0 1470 23.94% 27.47%
5 2004-05-20 43.3 @ FC Superfund 4 1737 70.41% Mattersburg 0 1519 8.95% 20.64%
6 2004-04-07 44.2 @ Rapid Wien 2 1630 63.94% Mattersburg 0 1490 12.53% 23.53%
7 2003-09-28 44.3 @ Austria Wien 3 1753 69.84% FC Karnten 0 1542 9.23% 20.92%
8 2003-08-06 44.8 @ Austria Wien 3 1714 66.35% Mattersburg 0 1546 11.11% 22.54%
9 2004-05-01 44.8 @ Grazer AK 3 1835 72.24% Austria Salzburg 0 1593 8.06% 19.70%
10 2003-11-23 44.9 @ Austria Salzburg 4 1606 56.78% Mattersburg 0 1539 17.37% 25.85%
11 2004-05-20 45.5 @ Austria Wien 2 1757 71.55% FC Karnten 0 1524 8.39% 20.06%
12 2003-12-06 45.8 @ Admira Wacker Modling 2 1567 54.88% Mattersburg 0 1517 18.80% 26.32%
13 2004-04-07 45.8 @ FC Superfund 3 1689 62.66% Sturm Graz 0 1562 13.33% 24.01%
14 2003-12-06 46.3 @ Grazer AK 4 1731 74.09% FC Karnten 1 1463 7.21% 18.70%
15 2004-04-14 46.3 @ Austria Wien 3 1792 66.91% Austria Salzburg 0 1618 10.80% 22.29%
16 2004-05-08 46.4 @ FC Karnten 5 1479 45.89% Mattersburg 1 1504 26.31% 27.80%
17 2004-03-27 47.1 @ Austria Salzburg 1 1621 63.78% Mattersburg 0 1482 12.63% 23.59%
18 2004-03-17 47.2 @ Austria Wien 1 1791 76.98% Mattersburg 0 1482 5.99% 17.03%
19 2004-04-24 47.8 @ Sturm Graz 2 1541 48.49% Admira Wacker Modling 0 1546 24.03% 27.49%
20 2003-11-22 47.9 @ Admira Wacker Modling 1 1571 57.40% FC Karnten 0 1498 16.91% 25.69%
21 2004-05-15 47.9 @ FC Karnten 2 1506 43.98% Sturm Graz 0 1546 28.04% 27.97%
22 2003-07-23 48.0 @ Austria Wien 4 1692 57.39% Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz 0 1619 16.92% 25.69%
23 2004-04-17 48.1 @ Grazer AK 1 1809 76.13% Mattersburg 0 1512 6.34% 17.53%
24 2003-11-02 48.4 @ Austria Salzburg 5 1563 47.05% Sturm Graz 0 1580 25.28% 27.67%
25 2003-11-29 48.7 @ Austria Wien 5 1782 69.37% Admira Wacker Modling 1 1577 9.48% 21.15%