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1947-48 Wiener Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiener Sport-Club

4.12 points above expected

21 points · 16.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Wiener AC

7.12 points below expected

5 points · 12.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 13 2 3 28 55 23 +32 24.77 +3.23
2 Wacker Wien 18 13 1 4 27 60 19 +41 24.66 +2.34
3 Austria Wien 18 9 4 5 22 74 36 +38 22.91 -0.91
4 Wiener Sport-Club 18 9 3 6 21 36 29 +7 16.88 +4.12
5 FC Wien 18 9 3 6 21 33 28 +5 19.37 +1.63
6 Admira Wien 18 7 5 6 19 26 36 -10 15.45 +3.55
7 First Vienna 18 8 2 8 18 47 46 +1 20.15 -2.15
8 SC Rapid Oberlaa 18 4 2 12 10 20 57 -37 9.79 +0.21
9 Floridsdorfer 18 3 3 12 9 21 47 -26 13.89 -4.89
10 Wiener AC 18 2 1 15 5 17 68 -51 12.12 -7.12

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener Sport-Club 21 16.88 +4.12
2 Admira Wien 19 15.45 +3.55
3 Rapid Wien 28 24.77 +3.23
4 Wacker Wien 27 24.66 +2.34
5 FC Wien 21 19.37 +1.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener AC 5 12.12 -7.12
2 Floridsdorfer 9 13.89 -4.89
3 First Vienna 18 20.15 -2.15
4 Austria Wien 22 22.91 -0.91
5 SC Rapid Oberlaa 10 9.79 +0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Admira Wien 3 Oct 26 – Nov 22 1 in 58
2 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Nov 2 – Mar 6 1 in 57
3 Rapid Wien 6 Aug 31 – Oct 19 1 in 24
4 FC Wien 4 Sep 20 – Oct 18 1 in 20
5 Austria Wien 5 Sep 27 – Nov 1 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 9 Oct 12 – Apr 4 1 in 341
2 Wiener AC 6 Nov 1 – Apr 3 1 in 26
3 SC Rapid Oberlaa 7 Oct 12 – Mar 6 1 in 16
4 Austria Wien 2 Sep 6 – Sep 21 1 in 10
5 Rapid Wien 1 Oct 26 – Oct 26 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Admira Wien 9 Oct 19 – Apr 11 1 in 1,062
2 SC Rapid Oberlaa 3 Sep 6 – Sep 27 1 in 14
3 Wiener Sport-Club 5 Apr 3 – May 22 1 in 10
4 FC Wien 4 Sep 20 – Oct 18 1 in 6
5 Rapid Wien 6 Aug 31 – Oct 19 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 14 Sep 7 – Apr 25 1 in 239
2 Wiener AC 11 Nov 1 – Jun 5 1 in 17
3 Admira Wien 6 Aug 30 – Oct 19 1 in 13
4 Austria Wien 3 Aug 31 – Sep 21 1 in 7
5 SC Rapid Oberlaa 8 Sep 27 – Mar 6 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1945 28 +0 6 7.4 -1.4
Wacker Wien 1970 27 +42 9 7.6 +1.4
Austria Wien 1918 22 +10 7 6.9 +0.1
FC Wien 1800 21 +18 6 5.7 +0.3
Wiener Sport-Club 1783 21 +12 6 4.9 +1.1
Admira Wien 1718 19 -23 4 4.2 -0.2
First Vienna 1772 18 -27 5 5.9 -0.9
SC Rapid Oberlaa 1541 10 -17 1 2.2 -1.2
Floridsdorfer 1633 9 +12 5 2.7 +2.3
Wiener AC 1546 5 -27 1 2.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FW FV FLO RW SRO WW WA WS
Admira Wien —
1-0-1
1.89
0-1-1
2.28
2-0-0
2.04
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
1.18
1-1-0
3.93
0-1-1
1.44
1-0-1
3.42
0-1-1
2.40
Austria Wien
1-0-1
3.81
 —
1-1-0
3.41
0-1-1
3.15
2-0-0
4.32
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
4.56
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
4.71
1-1-0
3.75
FC Wien
1-1-0
3.42
0-1-1
2.28
 —
2-0-0
2.46
1-0-1
3.98
1-0-1
1.71
2-0-0
4.43
1-0-1
2.10
1-1-0
4.16
0-0-2
3.32
First Vienna
0-0-2
3.66
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
3.23
 —
2-0-0
3.79
0-0-2
1.99
2-0-0
4.30
0-0-2
2.15
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
3.04
Floridsdorfer
0-1-1
2.60
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
1.72
0-0-2
1.90
 —
0-1-1
1.25
0-1-1
3.58
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
2.55
Rapid Wien
1-0-1
4.52
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
3.99
2-0-0
3.71
1-1-0
4.46
 —
2-0-0
4.77
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
4.73
2-0-0
4.06
SC Rapid Oberlaa
0-1-1
1.77
1-0-1
1.15
0-0-2
1.28
0-0-2
1.40
1-1-0
2.11
0-0-2
0.94
 —
0-0-2
0.77
2-0-0
2.28
0-0-2
1.58
Wacker Wien
1-1-0
4.26
1-0-1
3.29
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
2.81
2-0-0
4.94
 —
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-1
4.28
Wiener AC
1-0-1
2.28
0-0-2
1.00
0-1-1
1.54
0-0-2
1.57
1-0-1
2.46
0-0-2
0.98
0-0-2
3.42
0-0-2
1.31
 —
0-0-2
2.05
Wiener Sport-Club
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
1.95
2-0-0
2.37
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
1.64
2-0-0
4.13
1-0-1
1.42
2-0-0
3.65
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +3.1
Allowed 0.89 -4.7
Differential 0.89 +2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%5.56%3.89%1.11%2.22%5.56%19.44%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.00%2.22%3.33%27.22%
23.89%5.56%6.67%3.89%0.56%1.11%21.67%
31.11%5.00%3.89%—1.67%1.11%12.78%
42.22%2.22%0.56%1.67%——6.67%
5+5.56%3.33%1.11%1.11%—1.11%12.22%
Total19.44%27.22%21.67%12.78%6.67%12.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 2.07 2.07 3.28
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%11.11%22.22%
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
3———————
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.00 -0.56
SD 1.20 2.35 3.17
CV 0.83 1.18 —
Max 5 9 +5
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%—11.11%——5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.11 2.00 +2.11
SD 3.05 2.03 4.01
CV 0.74 1.01 —
Max 10 7 +9
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
111.11%16.67%—11.11%——38.89%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.56 +0.28
SD 1.25 1.85 2.52
CV 0.68 1.19 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
1——5.56%———5.56%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
45.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
5+5.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 2.56 +0.06
SD 2.20 2.09 3.52
CV 0.84 0.82 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
1——11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%38.89%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.61 -1.44
SD 0.99 1.61 1.76
CV 0.84 0.62 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
111.11%—5.56%———16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+16.67%—5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total33.33%16.67%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.28 +1.78
SD 2.15 1.07 2.37
CV 0.71 0.84 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%33.33%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%—11.11%33.33%
2—5.56%—16.67%——22.22%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%11.11%27.78%—27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 3.17 -2.06
SD 1.02 2.81 2.96
CV 0.92 0.89 —
Max 3 10 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
116.67%——5.56%——22.22%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+11.11%16.67%————27.78%
Total33.33%44.44%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.33 1.06 +2.28
SD 2.77 1.11 3.23
CV 0.83 1.05 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—11.11%11.11%33.33%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%11.11%44.44%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—16.67%22.22%11.11%22.22%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 3.78 -2.83
SD 0.87 2.51 2.73
CV 0.92 0.66 —
Max 3 10 +1
Min 0 1 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
3—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.61 +0.39
SD 1.41 1.20 2.00
CV 0.71 0.74 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Wacker Wien 1970 27 24.66 +2.34 78.4% 11 18 22 25 27 30 34
Rapid Wien 1945 28 24.77 +3.23 86.9% 14 19 22 25 27 30 35
Austria Wien 1918 22 22.91 -0.91 45.8% 12 17 21 23 25 29 33
FC Wien 1800 21 19.37 +1.63 71.4% 9 13 17 19 22 25 30
Wiener Sport-Club 1783 21 16.88 +4.12 90.4% 5 11 14 17 19 23 31
First Vienna 1772 18 20.15 -2.15 32.3% 9 14 18 20 23 26 32
Admira Wien 1718 19 15.45 +3.55 86.4% 1 10 13 15 18 22 25
Floridsdorfer 1633 9 13.89 -4.89 11.9% 3 8 11 14 16 20 27
Wiener AC 1546 5 12.12 -7.12 2.3% 1 6 10 12 14 18 23
SC Rapid Oberlaa 1541 10 9.79 +0.21 60.3% 0 4 7 10 12 16 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.78%
No Edge
38.89%14.44%46.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -27.08 Elo pts.
95 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2-0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
Rapid Wien, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.85 * Some Luck: 2.85 to 4.28 * Lucky: 4.28 to 5.71 * Wild Swing: 5.71 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.01 * Close: 1.01 to 1.51 * Off: 1.51 to 2.02 * Way Off: 2.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.58 points
Some Luck
03.579
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.263
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
90.40%
Wiener Sport-Club
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.30%
Wiener AC
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.81
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
79%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
92%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Frequent
0%35%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.02
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.74
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien34.00%29.30%19.50%9.20%5.30%2.20%0.30%0.10%0.10%—
Wacker Wien37.70%27.00%17.00%9.00%4.80%2.70%1.20%0.50%0.10%—
Austria Wien19.20%21.80%25.00%17.90%10.40%3.50%1.30%0.80%0.10%—
Wiener Sport-Club1.00%2.00%5.80%11.70%17.90%21.40%17.60%13.60%6.70%2.30%
FC Wien3.80%8.10%11.90%19.00%21.80%17.60%9.70%4.60%2.90%0.60%
Admira Wien0.20%0.90%2.80%7.10%10.20%19.20%22.20%21.10%12.00%4.30%
First Vienna4.10%10.40%15.50%21.30%19.80%14.40%8.90%3.30%2.20%0.10%
SC Rapid Oberlaa—0.10%0.20%0.30%0.80%2.10%6.20%10.30%26.60%53.40%
Floridsdorfer—0.40%1.90%3.10%6.40%12.70%17.90%25.80%19.60%12.20%
Wiener AC——0.40%1.40%2.60%4.20%14.70%19.90%29.70%27.10%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Austria Wien 100% —
Rapid Wien 100% —
Wacker Wien 100% —
First Vienna 99.90% 0.10%
FC Wien 99.40% 0.60%
Wiener Sport-Club 97.70% 2.30%
Admira Wien 95.70% 4.30%
Floridsdorfer 87.80% 12.20%
Wiener AC 72.90% 27.10%
SC Rapid Oberlaa 46.60% 53.40%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1947-08-30 Admira Wien W 1-058.6 1778 1729 49.13% 15.30% 35.57%+0.22 +7.3 2
1947-08-30 @ FC Wien L 0-158.6 1729 1778 35.57% 15.30% 49.13%-0.22 -7.3 0
1947-08-31 First Vienna D 6-686.6 1800 1823 39.02% 15.32% 45.66%-0.53 +0.1 1
1947-08-31 @ Austria Wien D 6-686.6 1823 1800 45.66% 15.32% 39.02%+0.53 -0.1 1
1947-08-31 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-163.6 1732 1731 42.41% 15.32% 42.27%-0.28 +8.0 2
1947-08-31 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-263.6 1731 1732 42.27% 15.32% 42.41%+0.28 -8.0 0
1947-08-31 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 6-358.6 1859 1612 70.42% 14.79% 14.79%+2.31 +6.1 2
1947-08-31 @ Rapid Wien L 3-658.6 1612 1859 14.79% 14.79% 70.42%-2.31 -6.1 0
1947-08-31 Wacker Wien L 1-455.1 1699 1862 22.02% 15.09% 62.89%-2.00 -11.0 0
1947-08-31 @ Wiener AC W 4-155.1 1862 1699 62.89% 15.09% 22.02%+2.00 +11.0 2
1947-09-06 Austria Wien W 2-170.3 1606 1800 19.09% 14.99% 65.92%-2.32 +12.1 2
1947-09-06 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa L 1-270.3 1800 1606 65.92% 14.99% 19.09%+2.32 -12.1 1
1947-09-06 FC Wien W 4-373.8 1723 1785 33.76% 15.29% 50.95%-0.94 +8.8 2
1947-09-06 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 3-473.8 1785 1723 50.95% 15.29% 33.76%+0.94 -8.8 2
1947-09-07 Wiener AC L 2-368.7 1722 1688 47.17% 15.31% 37.52%+0.07 -8.4 0
1947-09-07 @ Admira Wien W 3-268.7 1688 1722 37.52% 15.31% 47.17%-0.07 +8.4 2
1947-09-07 Floridsdorfer W 4-157.9 1823 1740 53.75% 15.26% 31.00%+0.59 +15.0 3
1947-09-07 @ First Vienna L 1-457.9 1740 1823 31.00% 15.26% 53.75%-0.59 -15.0 2
1947-09-07 Rapid Wien L 2-467.1 1873 1866 43.42% 15.32% 41.26%-0.21 -12.7 2
1947-09-07 @ Wacker Wien W 4-267.1 1866 1873 41.26% 15.32% 43.42%+0.21 +12.7 4
1947-09-20 First Vienna W 4-058.9 1777 1838 33.79% 15.29% 50.92%-0.93 +35.8 4
1947-09-20 @ FC Wien L 0-458.9 1838 1777 50.92% 15.29% 33.79%+0.93 -35.8 3
1947-09-20 Admira Wien D 2-276.4 1725 1714 43.91% 15.32% 40.77%-0.17 -0.1 3
1947-09-20 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-276.4 1714 1725 40.77% 15.32% 43.91%+0.17 +0.1 1
1947-09-21 Wacker Wien L 1-359.8 1788 1860 32.43% 15.27% 52.30%-1.04 -11.0 1
1947-09-21 @ Austria Wien W 3-159.8 1860 1788 52.30% 15.27% 32.43%+1.04 +11.0 4
1947-09-21 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-055.2 1878 1732 61.13% 15.13% 23.74%+1.25 +5.1 6
1947-09-21 @ Rapid Wien L 0-155.2 1732 1878 23.74% 15.13% 61.13%-1.25 -5.1 2
1947-09-21 SC Rapid Oberlaa L 2-369.6 1696 1618 53.04% 15.27% 31.70%+0.54 -9.3 2
1947-09-21 @ Wiener AC W 3-269.6 1618 1696 31.70% 15.27% 53.04%-0.54 +9.3 4
1947-09-27 Austria Wien L 0-953.0 1714 1777 33.61% 15.28% 51.11%-0.95 -53.8 1
1947-09-27 @ Admira Wien W 9-053.0 1777 1714 51.11% 15.28% 33.61%+0.95 +53.8 3
1947-09-27 Floridsdorfer D 0-069.5 1628 1725 29.34% 15.24% 55.43%-1.30 +1.3 5
1947-09-27 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa D 0-069.5 1725 1628 55.43% 15.24% 29.34%+1.30 -1.3 4
1947-09-27 Wiener AC W 2-056.7 1727 1687 47.96% 15.31% 36.74%+0.13 +14.2 4
1947-09-27 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-256.7 1687 1727 36.74% 15.31% 47.96%-0.13 -14.2 2
1947-09-28 Rapid Wien L 3-468.2 1802 1883 31.33% 15.26% 53.41%-1.14 -5.7 3
1947-09-28 @ First Vienna W 4-368.2 1883 1802 53.41% 15.26% 31.33%+1.14 +5.7 8
1947-09-28 FC Wien L 0-163.4 1871 1812 50.56% 15.29% 34.15%+0.34 -10.0 4
1947-09-28 @ Wacker Wien W 1-063.4 1812 1871 34.15% 15.29% 50.56%-0.34 +9.9 6
1947-10-11 Wiener AC W 3-156.7 1822 1673 61.47% 15.12% 23.41%+1.29 +8.3 8
1947-10-11 @ FC Wien L 1-356.7 1673 1822 23.41% 15.12% 61.47%-1.29 -8.3 2
1947-10-12 Wacker Wien L 0-448.8 1660 1861 18.44% 14.96% 66.60%-2.40 -14.5 1
1947-10-12 @ Admira Wien W 4-048.8 1861 1660 66.60% 14.96% 18.44%+2.40 +14.5 6
1947-10-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-053.8 1831 1741 54.53% 15.25% 30.22%+0.66 +17.4 5
1947-10-12 @ Austria Wien L 0-353.8 1741 1831 30.22% 15.25% 54.53%-0.66 -17.4 4
1947-10-12 Floridsdorfer W 5-049.3 1889 1723 63.18% 15.08% 21.74%+1.46 +20.9 10
1947-10-12 @ Rapid Wien L 0-549.3 1723 1889 21.74% 15.08% 63.18%-1.46 -20.9 4
1947-10-12 First Vienna L 0-748.5 1629 1797 21.55% 15.07% 63.38%-2.05 -28.5 5
1947-10-12 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 7-048.5 1797 1629 63.38% 15.07% 21.55%+2.05 +28.4 5
1947-10-18 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-048.9 1831 1600 69.06% 14.86% 16.08%+2.13 +9.8 10
1947-10-18 @ FC Wien L 0-348.9 1600 1831 16.08% 14.86% 69.06%-2.13 -9.8 5
1947-10-18 Austria Wien L 1-357.0 1702 1848 23.78% 15.13% 61.08%-1.82 -8.4 4
1947-10-18 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-157.0 1848 1702 61.08% 15.13% 23.78%+1.82 +8.4 7
1947-10-19 First Vienna W 7-053.3 1876 1825 49.45% 15.30% 35.25%+0.25 +44.1 8
1947-10-19 @ Wacker Wien L 0-753.3 1825 1876 35.25% 15.30% 49.45%-0.25 -44.1 5
1947-10-19 Rapid Wien L 0-547.1 1665 1910 14.92% 14.80% 70.29%-2.86 -14.7 2
1947-10-19 @ Wiener AC W 5-047.1 1910 1665 70.29% 14.80% 14.92%+2.86 +14.7 12
1947-10-19 Admira Wien D 1-172.3 1724 1646 53.05% 15.27% 31.68%+0.54 -1.0 5
1947-10-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-172.3 1646 1724 31.68% 15.27% 53.05%-0.54 +1.0 2
1947-10-25 Wiener AC L 1-264.7 1694 1650 48.55% 15.30% 36.15%+0.18 -9.0 4
1947-10-25 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-164.7 1650 1694 36.15% 15.30% 48.55%-0.18 +9.0 4
1947-10-25 Wacker Wien L 0-150.6 1591 1920 9.78% 14.39% 75.82%-3.75 -2.2 5
1947-10-25 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 1-050.6 1920 1591 75.82% 14.39% 9.78%+3.75 +2.2 10
1947-10-26 FC Wien W 7-054.8 1857 1840 44.67% 15.32% 40.01%-0.11 +49.2 9
1947-10-26 @ Austria Wien L 0-754.8 1840 1857 40.01% 15.32% 44.67%+0.11 -49.2 10
1947-10-26 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-157.4 1781 1723 50.47% 15.29% 34.24%+0.33 +21.2 7
1947-10-26 @ First Vienna L 1-557.4 1723 1781 34.24% 15.29% 50.47%-0.33 -21.2 5
1947-10-26 Admira Wien L 1-272.9 1925 1646 72.66% 14.65% 12.69%+2.64 -13.4 12
1947-10-26 @ Rapid Wien W 2-172.9 1646 1925 12.69% 14.65% 72.66%-2.64 +13.4 4
1947-11-01 First Vienna W 2-064.1 1660 1802 24.15% 15.14% 60.71%-1.78 +22.3 6
1947-11-01 @ Admira Wien L 0-264.1 1802 1660 60.71% 15.14% 24.15%+1.78 -22.3 7
1947-11-01 Austria Wien L 0-746.9 1659 1906 14.81% 14.79% 70.40%-2.88 -20.1 4
1947-11-01 @ Wiener AC W 7-046.9 1906 1659 70.40% 14.79% 14.81%+2.88 +20.1 11
1947-11-02 Rapid Wien L 0-156.2 1791 1911 26.61% 15.19% 58.20%-1.55 -5.7 10
1947-11-02 @ FC Wien W 1-056.2 1911 1791 58.20% 15.19% 26.61%+1.55 +5.7 14
1947-11-02 Floridsdorfer W 5-151.9 1922 1685 69.66% 14.83% 15.52%+2.21 +10.3 12
1947-11-02 @ Wacker Wien L 1-551.9 1685 1922 15.52% 14.83% 69.66%-2.21 -10.3 4
1947-11-02 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-156.4 1702 1588 57.37% 15.21% 27.43%+0.90 +9.5 7
1947-11-02 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-356.4 1588 1702 27.43% 15.21% 57.37%-0.90 -9.5 5
1947-11-22 FC Wien L 1-456.6 1675 1785 27.69% 15.21% 57.10%-1.45 -13.6 4
1947-11-22 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-156.6 1785 1675 57.10% 15.21% 27.69%+1.45 +13.6 12
1947-11-22 Admira Wien L 0-549.1 1579 1682 28.59% 15.23% 56.18%-1.37 -26.7 5
1947-11-22 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 5-049.1 1682 1579 56.18% 15.23% 28.59%+1.37 +26.7 8
1947-11-22 Wacker Wien W 3-170.5 1711 1933 16.75% 14.89% 68.36%-2.61 +21.7 9
1947-11-22 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-370.5 1933 1711 68.36% 14.89% 16.75%+2.61 -21.7 12
1947-11-23 Wiener AC W 4-050.2 1780 1639 60.57% 15.14% 24.29%+1.20 +18.7 9
1947-11-23 @ First Vienna L 0-450.2 1639 1780 24.29% 15.14% 60.57%-1.20 -18.7 4
1947-11-23 Austria Wien W 7-262.1 1917 1926 41.07% 15.32% 43.61%-0.38 +26.7 16
1947-11-23 @ Rapid Wien L 2-762.1 1926 1917 43.61% 15.32% 41.07%+0.38 -26.7 11
1948-02-28 Rapid Wien L 2-356.7 1552 1944 7.09% 14.03% 78.88%-4.40 -1.5 5
1948-02-28 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-256.7 1944 1552 78.88% 14.03% 7.09%+4.40 +1.5 18
1948-02-28 Floridsdorfer W 2-055.3 1733 1661 52.22% 15.27% 32.50%+0.47 +12.8 11
1948-02-28 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-255.3 1661 1733 32.50% 15.27% 52.22%-0.47 -12.8 4
1948-02-29 FC Wien D 1-173.0 1709 1799 30.17% 15.25% 54.59%-1.23 +1.1 9
1948-02-29 @ Admira Wien D 1-173.0 1799 1709 54.59% 15.25% 30.17%+1.23 -1.1 13
1948-02-29 Austria Wien W 4-375.6 1799 1899 28.91% 15.23% 55.86%-1.34 +9.5 11
1948-02-29 @ First Vienna L 3-475.6 1899 1799 55.86% 15.23% 28.91%+1.34 -9.5 11
1948-02-29 Wiener AC W 10-147.8 1911 1620 73.50% 14.59% 11.91%+2.77 +17.0 14
1948-02-29 @ Wacker Wien L 1-1047.8 1620 1911 11.91% 14.59% 73.50%-2.77 -17.0 4
1948-03-06 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 10-146.6 1890 1551 76.34% 14.34% 9.32%+3.28 +13.4 13
1948-03-06 @ Austria Wien L 1-1046.6 1551 1890 9.32% 14.34% 76.34%-3.28 -13.4 5
1948-03-06 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-364.8 1798 1746 49.66% 15.30% 35.04%+0.27 -16.0 13
1948-03-06 @ FC Wien W 3-164.8 1746 1798 35.04% 15.30% 49.66%-0.27 +16.0 13
1948-03-06 First Vienna L 1-257.5 1648 1808 22.33% 15.09% 62.57%-1.97 -4.6 4
1948-03-06 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-157.5 1808 1648 62.57% 15.09% 22.33%+1.97 +4.6 13
1948-03-07 Wacker Wien L 0-161.7 1945 1928 44.80% 15.32% 39.89%-0.10 -8.9 18
1948-03-07 @ Rapid Wien W 1-061.7 1928 1945 39.89% 15.32% 44.80%+0.10 +8.9 16
1948-03-07 Admira Wien L 1-258.2 1603 1710 28.16% 15.22% 56.62%-1.41 -5.6 4
1948-03-07 @ Wiener AC W 2-158.2 1710 1603 56.62% 15.22% 28.16%+1.41 +5.6 11
1948-03-13 Floridsdorfer W 2-055.1 1716 1644 52.24% 15.27% 32.48%+0.47 +12.8 13
1948-03-13 @ Admira Wien L 0-255.1 1644 1716 32.48% 15.27% 52.24%-0.47 -12.8 4
1948-03-13 FC Wien L 2-369.2 1813 1782 46.71% 15.31% 37.98%+0.04 -8.3 13
1948-03-13 @ First Vienna W 3-269.2 1782 1813 37.98% 15.31% 46.71%-0.04 +8.3 15
1948-03-13 Wiener AC W 1-058.2 1537 1597 34.02% 15.29% 50.69%-0.92 +10.0 7
1948-03-13 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa L 0-158.2 1597 1537 50.69% 15.29% 34.02%+0.92 -10.0 4
1948-03-14 Austria Wien L 0-260.7 1937 1903 47.12% 15.31% 37.57%+0.07 -17.6 16
1948-03-14 @ Wacker Wien W 2-060.7 1903 1937 37.57% 15.31% 47.12%-0.07 +17.6 15
1948-03-14 Rapid Wien L 1-257.6 1762 1936 20.88% 15.05% 64.06%-2.12 -4.3 13
1948-03-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-157.6 1936 1762 64.06% 15.05% 20.88%+2.12 +4.3 20
1948-04-03 Wacker Wien L 1-357.8 1790 1919 25.61% 15.17% 59.21%-1.64 -9.0 15
1948-04-03 @ FC Wien W 3-157.8 1919 1790 59.21% 15.17% 25.61%+1.64 +9.0 18
1948-04-03 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-552.6 1587 1757 21.36% 15.07% 63.58%-2.07 -13.9 4
1948-04-03 @ Wiener AC W 5-152.6 1757 1587 63.58% 15.07% 21.36%+2.07 +13.9 15
1948-04-04 Admira Wien L 1-271.0 1921 1728 65.77% 15.00% 19.24%+1.74 -12.1 15
1948-04-04 @ Austria Wien W 2-171.0 1728 1921 19.24% 15.00% 65.77%-1.74 +12.1 15
1948-04-04 SC Rapid Oberlaa L 0-160.3 1631 1547 53.75% 15.26% 30.99%+0.59 -10.5 4
1948-04-04 @ Floridsdorfer W 1-060.3 1547 1631 30.99% 15.26% 53.75%-0.59 +10.5 9
1948-04-04 First Vienna W 2-158.9 1940 1804 60.00% 15.16% 24.84%+1.14 +5.0 22
1948-04-04 @ Rapid Wien L 1-258.9 1804 1940 24.84% 15.16% 60.00%-1.14 -5.0 13
1948-04-10 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-258.6 1799 1558 69.99% 14.81% 15.20%+2.25 +3.0 15
1948-04-10 @ First Vienna L 2-358.6 1558 1799 15.20% 14.81% 69.99%-2.25 -3.0 9
1948-04-10 FC Wien D 1-172.2 1574 1781 17.90% 14.94% 67.16%-2.47 +2.4 5
1948-04-10 @ Wiener AC D 1-172.2 1781 1574 67.16% 14.94% 17.90%+2.47 -2.3 16
1948-04-11 Rapid Wien D 2-277.1 1620 1946 10.00% 14.41% 75.58%-3.70 +2.4 5
1948-04-11 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-277.1 1946 1620 75.58% 14.41% 10.00%+3.70 -2.4 23
1948-04-11 Admira Wien D 2-277.0 1928 1740 65.34% 15.01% 19.65%+1.69 -1.6 19
1948-04-11 @ Wacker Wien D 2-277.0 1740 1928 19.65% 15.01% 65.34%-1.69 +1.6 16
1948-04-11 Austria Wien D 2-277.0 1771 1909 24.68% 15.15% 60.17%-1.73 +1.2 16
1948-04-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-277.0 1909 1771 60.17% 15.15% 24.68%+1.73 -1.2 16
1948-04-24 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-361.3 1742 1772 38.05% 15.31% 46.64%-0.60 -12.7 16
1948-04-24 @ Admira Wien W 3-161.3 1772 1742 46.64% 15.31% 38.05%+0.60 +12.7 18
1948-04-24 FC Wien L 0-249.9 1555 1779 16.55% 14.88% 68.57%-2.64 -6.9 9
1948-04-24 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-049.9 1779 1555 68.57% 14.88% 16.55%+2.64 +6.9 18
1948-04-25 Floridsdorfer W 6-358.0 1907 1623 73.09% 14.62% 12.29%+2.71 +5.1 18
1948-04-25 @ Austria Wien L 3-658.0 1623 1907 12.29% 14.62% 73.09%-2.71 -5.1 5
1948-04-25 Wacker Wien L 0-650.5 1802 1927 26.16% 15.18% 58.66%-1.59 -29.3 15
1948-04-25 @ First Vienna W 6-050.5 1927 1802 58.66% 15.18% 26.16%+1.59 +29.3 21
1948-04-25 Wiener AC W 4-045.5 1943 1576 77.77% 14.18% 8.05%+3.57 +6.6 25
1948-04-25 @ Rapid Wien L 0-445.5 1576 1943 8.05% 14.18% 77.77%-3.57 -6.6 5
1948-05-08 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 7-146.9 1956 1548 79.57% 13.93% 6.50%+4.00 +6.4 23
1948-05-08 @ Wacker Wien L 1-746.9 1548 1956 6.50% 13.93% 79.57%-4.00 -6.4 9
1948-05-08 Floridsdorfer L 1-258.3 1569 1618 35.59% 15.30% 49.11%-0.79 -6.9 5
1948-05-08 @ Wiener AC W 2-158.3 1618 1569 49.11% 15.30% 35.59%+0.79 +6.9 7
1948-05-08 First Vienna D 2-276.8 1785 1773 44.04% 15.32% 40.64%-0.16 -0.1 19
1948-05-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-276.8 1773 1785 40.64% 15.32% 44.04%+0.16 +0.1 16
1948-05-09 Rapid Wien L 0-647.6 1729 1950 16.85% 14.90% 68.26%-2.60 -19.6 16
1948-05-09 @ Admira Wien W 6-047.6 1950 1729 68.26% 14.90% 16.85%+2.60 +19.6 27
1948-05-09 Austria Wien D 1-173.4 1786 1913 25.87% 15.18% 58.95%-1.62 +1.5 19
1948-05-09 @ FC Wien D 1-173.4 1913 1786 58.95% 15.18% 25.87%+1.62 -1.5 19
1948-05-22 Admira Wien L 0-163.1 1773 1710 51.15% 15.28% 33.57%+0.38 -10.1 16
1948-05-22 @ First Vienna W 1-063.1 1710 1773 33.57% 15.28% 51.15%-0.38 +10.0 18
1948-05-22 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-358.2 1541 1785 15.07% 14.80% 70.13%-2.84 -3.0 9
1948-05-22 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-258.2 1785 1541 70.13% 14.80% 15.07%+2.84 +3.0 21
1948-05-23 Wiener AC W 8-249.5 1911 1562 76.84% 14.29% 8.87%+3.38 +7.2 21
1948-05-23 @ Austria Wien L 2-849.5 1562 1911 8.87% 14.29% 76.84%-3.38 -7.2 5
1948-05-23 Wacker Wien L 1-352.5 1625 1962 9.38% 14.35% 76.28%-3.83 -3.5 7
1948-05-23 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-152.5 1962 1625 76.28% 14.35% 9.38%+3.83 +3.5 25
1948-05-23 FC Wien L 0-265.9 1969 1787 64.77% 15.03% 20.20%+1.63 -23.8 27
1948-05-23 @ Rapid Wien W 2-065.9 1787 1969 20.20% 15.03% 64.77%-1.63 +23.8 21
1948-05-26 Floridsdorfer L 2-374.3 1811 1621 65.55% 15.00% 19.45%+1.71 -11.4 21
1948-05-26 @ FC Wien W 3-274.3 1621 1811 19.45% 15.00% 65.55%-1.71 +11.4 9
1948-06-02 SC Rapid Oberlaa D 1-171.0 1720 1538 64.72% 15.03% 20.25%+1.62 -2.1 19
1948-06-02 @ Admira Wien D 1-171.0 1538 1720 20.25% 15.03% 64.72%-1.62 +2.1 10
1948-06-05 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-054.3 1966 1788 64.38% 15.04% 20.58%+1.58 +4.5 27
1948-06-05 @ Wacker Wien L 0-154.3 1788 1966 20.58% 15.04% 64.38%-1.58 -4.5 21
1948-06-05 First Vienna L 1-452.5 1555 1763 17.87% 14.94% 67.19%-2.47 -9.1 5
1948-06-05 @ Wiener AC W 4-152.5 1763 1555 67.19% 14.94% 17.87%+2.47 +9.1 18
1948-06-06 Rapid Wien D 2-277.1 1918 1946 38.47% 15.31% 46.21%-0.57 +0.3 22
1948-06-06 @ Austria Wien D 2-277.1 1946 1918 46.21% 15.31% 38.47%+0.57 -0.2 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1947-10-26 12.69% Admira Wien 1646 2 @ Rapid Wien 1925 1
2 1947-11-22 16.75% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1711 3 Wacker Wien 1933 1
3 1947-09-06 19.09% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1606 2 Austria Wien 1800 1
4 1948-04-04 19.24% Admira Wien 1728 2 @ Austria Wien 1921 1
5 1948-05-26 19.45% Floridsdorfer 1621 3 @ FC Wien 1811 2
6 1948-05-23 20.20% FC Wien 1787 2 @ Rapid Wien 1969 0
7 1947-11-01 24.15% @ Admira Wien 1660 2 First Vienna 1802 0
8 1948-02-29 28.91% @ First Vienna 1799 4 Austria Wien 1899 3
9 1948-04-04 30.99% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1547 1 @ Floridsdorfer 1631 0
10 1947-09-21 31.70% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1618 3 @ Wiener AC 1696 2
11 1948-05-22 33.57% Admira Wien 1710 1 @ First Vienna 1773 0
12 1947-09-06 33.76% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1723 4 FC Wien 1785 3
13 1947-09-20 33.79% @ FC Wien 1777 4 First Vienna 1838 0
14 1948-03-13 34.02% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1537 1 Wiener AC 1597 0
15 1947-09-28 34.15% FC Wien 1812 1 @ Wacker Wien 1871 0
16 1948-03-06 35.04% Wiener Sport-Club 1746 3 @ FC Wien 1798 1
17 1947-10-25 36.15% Wiener AC 1650 2 @ Floridsdorfer 1694 1
18 1947-09-07 37.52% Wiener AC 1688 3 @ Admira Wien 1722 2
19 1948-03-14 37.57% Austria Wien 1903 2 @ Wacker Wien 1937 0
20 1948-03-13 37.98% FC Wien 1782 3 @ First Vienna 1813 2
21 1948-03-07 39.89% Wacker Wien 1928 1 @ Rapid Wien 1945 0
22 1947-11-23 41.07% @ Rapid Wien 1917 7 Austria Wien 1926 2
23 1947-09-07 41.26% Rapid Wien 1866 4 @ Wacker Wien 1873 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1947-09-27 53.80 Austria Wien 9 1777 51.11% @ Admira Wien 0 1714 33.61% 15.28%
2 1947-10-26 49.18 @ Austria Wien 7 1857 44.67% FC Wien 0 1840 40.01% 15.32%
3 1947-10-19 44.11 @ Wacker Wien 7 1876 49.45% First Vienna 0 1825 35.25% 15.30%
4 1947-09-20 35.82 @ FC Wien 4 1777 33.79% First Vienna 0 1838 50.92% 15.29%
5 1948-04-25 29.30 Wacker Wien 6 1927 58.66% @ First Vienna 0 1802 26.16% 15.18%
6 1947-10-12 28.45 First Vienna 7 1797 63.38% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1629 21.55% 15.07%
7 1947-11-22 26.70 Admira Wien 5 1682 56.18% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1579 28.59% 15.23%
8 1947-11-23 26.67 @ Rapid Wien 7 1917 41.07% Austria Wien 2 1926 43.61% 15.32%
9 1948-05-23 23.76 FC Wien 2 1787 20.20% @ Rapid Wien 0 1969 64.77% 15.03%
10 1947-11-01 22.28 @ Admira Wien 2 1660 24.15% First Vienna 0 1802 60.71% 15.14%
11 1947-11-22 21.73 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1711 16.75% Wacker Wien 1 1933 68.36% 14.89%
12 1947-10-26 21.15 @ First Vienna 5 1781 50.47% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1723 34.24% 15.29%
13 1947-10-12 20.86 @ Rapid Wien 5 1889 63.18% Floridsdorfer 0 1723 21.74% 15.08%
14 1947-11-01 20.07 Austria Wien 7 1906 70.40% @ Wiener AC 0 1659 14.81% 14.79%
15 1948-05-09 19.57 Rapid Wien 6 1950 68.26% @ Admira Wien 0 1729 16.85% 14.90%
16 1947-11-23 18.71 @ First Vienna 4 1780 60.57% Wiener AC 0 1639 24.29% 15.14%
17 1948-03-14 17.60 Austria Wien 2 1903 37.57% @ Wacker Wien 0 1937 47.12% 15.31%
18 1947-10-12 17.42 @ Austria Wien 3 1831 54.53% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1741 30.22% 15.25%
19 1948-02-29 17.00 @ Wacker Wien 10 1911 73.50% Wiener AC 1 1620 11.91% 14.59%
20 1948-03-06 15.98 Wiener Sport-Club 3 1746 35.04% @ FC Wien 1 1798 49.66% 15.30%
21 1947-09-07 15.02 @ First Vienna 4 1823 53.75% Floridsdorfer 1 1740 31.00% 15.26%
22 1947-10-19 14.70 Rapid Wien 5 1910 70.29% @ Wiener AC 0 1665 14.92% 14.80%
23 1947-10-12 14.54 Wacker Wien 4 1861 66.60% @ Admira Wien 0 1660 18.44% 14.96%
24 1947-09-27 14.22 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1727 47.96% Wiener AC 0 1687 36.74% 15.31%
25 1948-04-03 13.88 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1757 63.58% @ Wiener AC 1 1587 21.36% 15.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1947-08-31 86.6 @ Austria Wien 6 1800 39.02% First Vienna 6 1823 45.66% 15.32%
2 1948-04-11 77.1 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1620 10.00% Rapid Wien 2 1946 75.58% 14.41%
3 1948-06-06 77.1 @ Austria Wien 2 1918 38.47% Rapid Wien 2 1946 46.21% 15.31%
4 1948-04-11 77.0 @ Wacker Wien 2 1928 65.34% Admira Wien 2 1740 19.65% 15.01%
5 1948-04-11 77.0 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1771 24.68% Austria Wien 2 1909 60.17% 15.15%
6 1948-05-08 76.8 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1785 44.04% First Vienna 2 1773 40.64% 15.32%
7 1947-09-20 76.4 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1725 43.91% Admira Wien 2 1714 40.77% 15.32%
8 1948-02-29 75.6 @ First Vienna 4 1799 28.91% Austria Wien 3 1899 55.86% 15.23%
9 1948-05-26 74.3 Floridsdorfer 3 1621 19.45% @ FC Wien 2 1811 65.55% 15.00%
10 1947-09-06 73.8 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1723 33.76% FC Wien 3 1785 50.95% 15.29%
11 1948-05-09 73.4 @ FC Wien 1 1786 25.87% Austria Wien 1 1913 58.95% 15.18%
12 1948-02-29 73.0 @ Admira Wien 1 1709 30.17% FC Wien 1 1799 54.59% 15.25%
13 1947-10-26 72.9 Admira Wien 2 1646 12.69% @ Rapid Wien 1 1925 72.66% 14.65%
14 1947-10-19 72.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1724 53.05% Admira Wien 1 1646 31.68% 15.27%
15 1948-04-10 72.2 @ Wiener AC 1 1574 17.90% FC Wien 1 1781 67.16% 14.94%
16 1948-04-04 71.0 Admira Wien 2 1728 19.24% @ Austria Wien 1 1921 65.77% 15.00%
17 1948-06-02 71.0 @ Admira Wien 1 1720 64.72% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1538 20.25% 15.03%
18 1947-11-22 70.5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1711 16.75% Wacker Wien 1 1933 68.36% 14.89%
19 1947-09-06 70.3 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 2 1606 19.09% Austria Wien 1 1800 65.92% 14.99%
20 1947-09-21 69.6 SC Rapid Oberlaa 3 1618 31.70% @ Wiener AC 2 1696 53.04% 15.27%
21 1947-09-27 69.5 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1628 29.34% Floridsdorfer 0 1725 55.43% 15.24%
22 1948-03-13 69.2 FC Wien 3 1782 37.98% @ First Vienna 2 1813 46.71% 15.31%
23 1947-09-07 68.7 Wiener AC 3 1688 37.52% @ Admira Wien 2 1722 47.17% 15.31%
24 1947-09-28 68.2 Rapid Wien 4 1883 53.41% @ First Vienna 3 1802 31.33% 15.26%
25 1947-09-07 67.1 Rapid Wien 4 1866 41.26% @ Wacker Wien 2 1873 43.42% 15.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1948-04-25 45.5 @ Rapid Wien 4 1943 77.77% Wiener AC 0 1576 8.05% 14.18%
2 1948-03-06 46.6 @ Austria Wien 10 1890 76.34% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1551 9.32% 14.34%
3 1947-11-01 46.9 Austria Wien 7 1906 70.40% @ Wiener AC 0 1659 14.81% 14.79%
4 1948-05-08 46.9 @ Wacker Wien 7 1956 79.57% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1548 6.50% 13.93%
5 1947-10-19 47.1 Rapid Wien 5 1910 70.29% @ Wiener AC 0 1665 14.92% 14.80%
6 1948-05-09 47.6 Rapid Wien 6 1950 68.26% @ Admira Wien 0 1729 16.85% 14.90%
7 1948-02-29 47.8 @ Wacker Wien 10 1911 73.50% Wiener AC 1 1620 11.91% 14.59%
8 1947-10-12 48.5 First Vienna 7 1797 63.38% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1629 21.55% 15.07%
9 1947-10-12 48.8 Wacker Wien 4 1861 66.60% @ Admira Wien 0 1660 18.44% 14.96%
10 1947-10-18 48.9 @ FC Wien 3 1831 69.06% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1600 16.08% 14.86%
11 1947-11-22 49.1 Admira Wien 5 1682 56.18% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1579 28.59% 15.23%
12 1947-10-12 49.3 @ Rapid Wien 5 1889 63.18% Floridsdorfer 0 1723 21.74% 15.08%
13 1948-05-23 49.5 @ Austria Wien 8 1911 76.84% Wiener AC 2 1562 8.87% 14.29%
14 1948-04-24 49.9 FC Wien 2 1779 68.57% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1555 16.55% 14.88%
15 1947-11-23 50.2 @ First Vienna 4 1780 60.57% Wiener AC 0 1639 24.29% 15.14%
16 1948-04-25 50.5 Wacker Wien 6 1927 58.66% @ First Vienna 0 1802 26.16% 15.18%
17 1947-10-25 50.6 Wacker Wien 1 1920 75.82% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1591 9.78% 14.39%
18 1947-11-02 51.9 @ Wacker Wien 5 1922 69.66% Floridsdorfer 1 1685 15.52% 14.83%
19 1948-05-23 52.5 Wacker Wien 3 1962 76.28% @ Floridsdorfer 1 1625 9.38% 14.35%
20 1948-06-05 52.5 First Vienna 4 1763 67.19% @ Wiener AC 1 1555 17.87% 14.94%
21 1948-04-03 52.6 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1757 63.58% @ Wiener AC 1 1587 21.36% 15.07%
22 1947-09-27 53.0 Austria Wien 9 1777 51.11% @ Admira Wien 0 1714 33.61% 15.28%
23 1947-10-19 53.3 @ Wacker Wien 7 1876 49.45% First Vienna 0 1825 35.25% 15.30%
24 1947-10-12 53.8 @ Austria Wien 3 1831 54.53% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1741 30.22% 15.25%
25 1948-06-05 54.3 @ Wacker Wien 1 1966 64.38% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1788 20.58% 15.04%