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1948-49 Wiener Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Austria Wien

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Admira Wien

3.81 points above expected

24 points · 20.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

SC Rapid Oberlaa

5.26 points below expected

4 points · 9.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Austria Wien 18 13 1 4 27 65 27 +38 23.72 +3.28
2 Rapid Wien 18 11 3 4 25 61 29 +32 22.90 +2.10
3 Admira Wien 18 11 2 5 24 69 33 +36 20.19 +3.81
4 Wacker Wien 18 10 3 5 23 35 34 +1 23.40 -0.40
5 FC Wien 18 9 3 6 21 35 33 +2 18.98 +2.02
6 First Vienna 18 8 3 7 19 44 32 +12 19.33 -0.33
7 Wiener Sport-Club 18 8 3 7 19 35 34 +1 19.41 -0.41
8 Floridsdorfer 18 6 2 10 14 37 46 -9 14.17 -0.17
9 SC Rapid Oberlaa 18 1 2 15 4 16 64 -48 9.26 -5.26
10 SCR Hochstadt 18 1 2 15 4 14 79 -65 8.65 -4.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Admira Wien 24 20.19 +3.81
2 Austria Wien 27 23.72 +3.28
3 Rapid Wien 25 22.90 +2.10
4 FC Wien 21 18.98 +2.02
5 Floridsdorfer 14 14.17 -0.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 SC Rapid Oberlaa 4 9.26 -5.26
2 SCR Hochstadt 4 8.65 -4.65
3 Wiener Sport-Club 19 19.41 -0.41
4 Wacker Wien 23 23.40 -0.40
5 First Vienna 19 19.33 -0.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Wien 8 Feb 27 – May 14 1 in 81
2 Austria Wien 6 Mar 27 – Jun 1 1 in 54
3 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 22
4 Admira Wien 4 Oct 9 – Nov 7 1 in 14
5 Wacker Wien 5 Mar 5 – Apr 24 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 3 May 15 – Jun 11 1 in 58
2 FC Wien 3 Mar 27 – Apr 24 1 in 12
3 Austria Wien 2 Nov 7 – Feb 27 1 in 11
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 7
5 Rapid Wien 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Admira Wien 7 Sep 26 – Mar 6 1 in 34
2 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Sep 1 – Oct 10 1 in 30
3 FC Wien 6 Oct 24 – Mar 12 1 in 19
4 Wacker Wien 7 Sep 8 – Nov 28 1 in 16
5 Rapid Wien 9 Nov 6 – May 14 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 3 May 15 – Jun 11 1 in 16
2 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Mar 5 – May 14 1 in 13
3 Rapid Wien 3 Oct 17 – Nov 6 1 in 13
4 SC Rapid Oberlaa 12 Oct 16 – Jun 11 1 in 9
5 Floridsdorfer 5 Sep 5 – Oct 9 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Austria Wien 1899 27 +179 10 6.0 +4.0
Rapid Wien 1855 25 +73 8 6.5 +1.5
Admira Wien 1787 24 +12 6 6.4 -0.4
Wacker Wien 1613 23 -186 4 7.2 -3.2
FC Wien 1662 21 -43 5 5.1 -0.1
First Vienna 1696 19 +34 7 6.3 +0.7
Wiener Sport-Club 1618 19 -18 4 4.8 -0.8
Floridsdorfer 1577 14 +87 6 4.4 +1.6
SCR Hochstadt 1271 4 -80 0 1.5 -1.5
SC Rapid Oberlaa 1286 4 -58 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FW FV FLO RW SRO SH WW WS
Admira Wien —
0-1-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
3.19
2-0-0
3.57
1-0-1
2.01
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.68
0-0-2
2.54
2-0-0
3.11
Austria Wien
1-1-0
3.23
 —
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-1
3.50
2-0-0
4.37
2-0-0
3.10
2-0-0
4.58
2-0-0
5.21
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.59
FC Wien
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.03
 —
1-1-0
2.26
0-1-1
4.02
0-0-2
1.81
2-0-0
4.45
2-0-0
4.52
1-1-0
2.03
1-0-1
2.93
First Vienna
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
3.46
 —
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.19
2-0-0
4.72
2-0-0
4.27
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
2.69
Floridsdorfer
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
1.70
0-0-2
2.17
 —
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
3.95
2-0-0
3.48
1-1-0
1.42
1-0-1
2.04
Rapid Wien
1-0-1
3.71
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
3.98
 —
2-0-0
4.57
1-1-0
4.97
1-1-0
2.50
1-1-0
3.37
SC Rapid Oberlaa
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-2
1.14
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
1.00
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
1.16
 —
0-1-1
2.96
0-0-2
0.74
0-1-1
1.33
SCR Hochstadt
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
0.52
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
2.24
0-1-1
0.76
1-1-0
2.76
 —
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
0.93
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
3.18
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
3.69
2-0-0
3.54
0-1-1
4.30
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.85
 —
1-0-1
3.57
Wiener Sport-Club
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.13
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
2.35
1-1-0
4.39
2-0-0
4.79
1-0-1
2.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +3.7
Allowed 0.90 -4.6
Differential 0.92 +2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—2.78%5.56%2.78%4.44%2.22%17.78%
12.78%7.78%6.11%2.22%1.11%5.00%25.00%
25.56%6.11%2.22%4.44%1.67%2.22%22.22%
32.78%2.22%4.44%3.33%1.11%1.11%15.00%
44.44%1.11%1.67%1.11%—0.56%8.89%
5+2.22%5.00%2.22%1.11%0.56%—11.11%
Total17.78%25.00%22.22%15.00%8.89%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.28 +0.00
SD 2.14 2.14 3.35
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.83 1.83 +2.00
SD 2.92 1.47 3.79
CV 0.76 0.80 —
Max 9 5 +9
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%16.67%11.11%——33.33%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.61 1.50 +2.11
SD 3.33 0.99 3.05
CV 0.92 0.66 —
Max 10 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%16.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.83 +0.11
SD 1.43 1.86 2.87
CV 0.74 1.01 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.78 +0.67
SD 1.72 1.52 2.59
CV 0.70 0.85 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
1——11.11%———11.11%
216.67%—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%44.44%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
5+———————
Total22.22%11.11%22.22%22.22%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.56 -0.50
SD 1.35 2.38 2.60
CV 0.66 0.93 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
Total11.11%55.56%16.67%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.61 +1.78
SD 2.40 1.42 3.04
CV 0.71 0.88 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.22%5.56%11.11%11.11%50.00%
1—5.56%5.56%——11.11%22.22%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%27.78%16.67%22.22%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 3.56 -2.67
SD 1.08 2.12 2.50
CV 1.21 0.60 —
Max 3 9 +1
Min 0 1 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%22.22%5.56%16.67%11.11%61.11%
1—————11.11%11.11%
2——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—5.56%33.33%11.11%16.67%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 4.39 -3.61
SD 1.11 2.91 2.93
CV 1.43 0.66 —
Max 3 10 +1
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.89 +0.06
SD 1.26 2.37 2.55
CV 0.65 1.26 —
Max 4 10 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%5.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.89 +0.06
SD 1.21 2.11 2.78
CV 0.62 1.12 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Austria Wien 1899 27 23.72 +3.28 86.8% 12 18 21 24 26 29 33
Rapid Wien 1855 25 22.90 +2.10 77.0% 10 17 21 23 25 29 35
Admira Wien 1787 24 20.19 +3.81 87.9% 8 14 18 20 23 26 32
First Vienna 1696 19 19.33 -0.33 50.9% 7 13 17 19 22 25 30
FC Wien 1662 21 18.98 +2.02 75.9% 7 13 16 19 21 25 30
Wiener Sport-Club 1618 19 19.41 -0.41 51.8% 9 13 17 19 22 25 31
Wacker Wien 1613 23 23.40 -0.40 49.8% 10 17 21 24 26 29 34
Floridsdorfer 1577 14 14.17 -0.17 53.4% 3 9 12 14 17 20 24
SC Rapid Oberlaa 1286 4 9.26 -5.26 6.7% 1 4 7 9 11 15 21
SCR Hochstadt 1271 4 8.65 -4.65 10.0% 0 4 7 9 11 14 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Slight Edge
50.00%13.33%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
97 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
046.60250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.48+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Austria Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.8 * Some Luck: 2.8 to 4.21 * Lucky: 4.21 to 5.61 * Wild Swing: 5.61 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.12 * Close: 1.12 to 1.68 * Off: 1.68 to 2.24 * Way Off: 2.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.89 points
Some Luck
03.519
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.403
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
87.90%
Admira Wien
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.70%
SC Rapid Oberlaa
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.94
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Frequent
0%35%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.74
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.38
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.108
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Austria Wien31.40%23.00%17.40%13.80%7.40%4.20%2.20%0.50%0.10%—
Rapid Wien24.40%20.20%18.20%14.50%9.60%8.20%3.40%1.30%0.20%—
Admira Wien8.50%11.10%14.60%15.50%17.30%16.00%11.20%4.60%1.10%0.10%
Wacker Wien23.50%21.90%18.20%15.00%10.00%7.10%3.50%0.80%——
FC Wien3.80%6.30%9.90%12.40%14.50%18.90%22.80%9.90%1.40%0.10%
First Vienna4.60%8.80%11.20%13.00%17.00%17.70%17.10%8.00%2.30%0.30%
Wiener Sport-Club3.80%8.40%9.30%13.60%18.10%18.30%18.90%7.70%1.80%0.10%
Floridsdorfer—0.30%1.20%2.00%5.60%7.70%17.10%45.00%16.20%4.90%
SC Rapid Oberlaa———0.10%0.40%1.60%1.90%12.00%45.20%38.80%
SCR Hochstadt———0.10%0.10%0.30%1.90%10.20%31.70%55.70%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Austria Wien 100% —
Rapid Wien 100% —
Wacker Wien 100% —
Admira Wien 99.90% 0.10%
FC Wien 99.90% 0.10%
Wiener Sport-Club 99.90% 0.10%
First Vienna 99.70% 0.30%
Floridsdorfer 95.10% 4.90%
SC Rapid Oberlaa 61.20% 38.80%
SCR Hochstadt 44.30% 55.70%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1948-08-28 Wacker Wien D 1-173.5 1720 1748 49.75% 14.14% 36.11%+0.19 -1.2 1
1948-08-28 @ Rapid Wien D 1-173.5 1748 1720 36.11% 14.14% 49.75%-0.19 +1.2 1
1948-08-29 First Vienna W 3-263.2 1595 1631 48.55% 14.14% 37.31%+0.10 +13.6 2
1948-08-29 @ Admira Wien L 2-363.2 1631 1595 37.31% 14.14% 48.55%-0.10 -13.6 0
1948-08-29 FC Wien W 2-157.1 1725 1643 63.01% 14.08% 22.91%+1.32 +9.2 2
1948-08-29 @ Austria Wien L 1-257.1 1643 1725 22.91% 14.08% 63.01%-1.32 -9.2 0
1948-08-29 Floridsdorfer L 0-253.7 1517 1551 48.86% 14.14% 37.00%+0.12 -36.2 0
1948-08-29 @ SCR Hochstadt W 2-053.7 1551 1517 37.00% 14.14% 48.86%-0.12 +36.2 2
1948-09-01 SC Rapid Oberlaa D 1-168.7 1635 1497 68.34% 14.02% 17.64%+1.90 -4.9 1
1948-09-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-168.7 1497 1635 17.64% 14.02% 68.34%-1.90 +4.8 1
1948-09-04 Austria Wien L 0-250.6 1502 1734 23.27% 14.03% 62.71%-1.91 -18.7 1
1948-09-04 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-050.6 1734 1502 62.71% 14.03% 23.27%+1.91 +18.7 4
1948-09-05 SCR Hochstadt W 2-045.5 1634 1481 69.62% 14.00% 16.38%+2.06 +13.6 2
1948-09-05 @ FC Wien L 0-245.5 1481 1634 16.38% 14.00% 69.62%-2.06 -13.6 0
1948-09-05 Rapid Wien W 5-159.4 1618 1719 39.49% 14.13% 46.38%-0.56 +54.6 2
1948-09-05 @ First Vienna L 1-559.4 1719 1618 46.38% 14.13% 39.49%+0.56 -54.6 1
1948-09-05 Admira Wien L 2-366.6 1588 1608 50.75% 14.14% 35.11%+0.27 -17.8 2
1948-09-05 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-266.6 1608 1588 35.11% 14.14% 50.75%-0.27 +17.8 4
1948-09-05 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-265.4 1749 1630 66.64% 14.04% 19.32%+1.71 -48.7 1
1948-09-05 @ Wacker Wien W 2-065.4 1630 1749 19.32% 14.04% 66.64%-1.71 +48.7 3
1948-09-08 SCR Hochstadt W 4-042.1 1700 1467 75.17% 13.86% 10.97%+2.89 +17.6 3
1948-09-08 @ Wacker Wien L 0-442.1 1467 1700 10.97% 13.86% 75.17%-2.89 -17.6 0
1948-09-11 Wacker Wien L 1-262.2 1626 1718 40.72% 14.14% 45.14%-0.47 -15.4 4
1948-09-11 @ Admira Wien W 2-162.2 1718 1626 45.14% 14.14% 40.72%+0.47 +15.4 5
1948-09-11 First Vienna W 6-256.1 1753 1672 62.88% 14.08% 23.04%+1.31 +24.9 6
1948-09-11 @ Austria Wien L 2-656.1 1672 1753 23.04% 14.08% 62.88%-1.31 -24.9 2
1948-09-11 Floridsdorfer W 2-050.1 1664 1570 64.30% 14.07% 21.63%+1.45 +17.6 3
1948-09-11 @ Rapid Wien L 0-250.1 1570 1664 21.63% 14.07% 64.30%-1.45 -17.5 2
1948-09-11 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-253.7 1450 1484 48.93% 14.14% 36.93%+0.13 +13.4 2
1948-09-11 @ SCR Hochstadt L 2-353.7 1484 1450 36.93% 14.14% 48.93%-0.13 -13.4 1
1948-09-11 FC Wien W 3-051.7 1679 1648 57.40% 14.12% 28.49%+0.81 +32.7 5
1948-09-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-351.7 1648 1679 28.49% 14.12% 57.40%-0.81 -32.7 2
1948-09-18 Rapid Wien L 1-549.7 1470 1682 25.44% 14.05% 60.50%-1.70 -32.1 1
1948-09-18 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 5-149.7 1682 1470 60.50% 14.05% 25.44%+1.70 +32.1 5
1948-09-19 Admira Wien W 3-261.5 1615 1611 54.01% 14.13% 31.86%+0.52 +11.8 4
1948-09-19 @ FC Wien L 2-361.5 1611 1615 31.86% 14.13% 54.01%-0.52 -11.8 4
1948-09-19 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-465.8 1647 1712 44.69% 14.14% 41.17%-0.18 -25.9 2
1948-09-19 @ First Vienna W 4-265.8 1712 1647 41.17% 14.14% 44.69%+0.18 +25.9 7
1948-09-19 Austria Wien L 2-459.2 1552 1778 23.92% 14.04% 62.04%-1.85 -14.9 2
1948-09-19 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-259.2 1778 1552 62.04% 14.04% 23.92%+1.85 +14.9 8
1948-09-25 Floridsdorfer D 2-273.0 1627 1537 63.79% 14.07% 22.14%+1.40 -2.9 5
1948-09-25 @ FC Wien D 2-273.0 1537 1627 22.14% 14.07% 63.79%-1.40 +2.9 3
1948-09-26 Admira Wien D 1-173.1 1793 1599 72.68% 13.93% 13.39%+2.48 -5.8 9
1948-09-26 @ Austria Wien D 1-173.1 1599 1793 13.39% 13.93% 72.68%-2.48 +5.8 5
1948-09-26 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-173.4 1714 1738 50.31% 14.14% 35.55%+0.23 -1.3 6
1948-09-26 @ Rapid Wien D 1-173.4 1738 1714 35.55% 14.14% 50.31%-0.23 +1.3 8
1948-09-26 First Vienna L 0-445.9 1463 1622 31.75% 14.10% 54.15%-1.15 -47.0 2
1948-09-26 @ SCR Hochstadt W 4-045.9 1622 1463 54.15% 14.10% 31.75%+1.15 +47.0 4
1948-09-26 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 4-356.5 1733 1438 78.34% 13.73% 7.93%+3.53 +3.1 7
1948-09-26 @ Wacker Wien L 3-456.5 1438 1733 7.93% 13.73% 78.34%-3.53 -3.1 1
1948-10-09 SCR Hochstadt W 5-141.8 1604 1416 72.30% 13.94% 13.76%+2.42 +18.2 7
1948-10-09 @ Admira Wien L 1-541.8 1416 1604 13.76% 13.94% 72.30%-2.42 -18.2 2
1948-10-09 Floridsdorfer W 2-154.6 1435 1540 38.85% 14.13% 47.02%-0.61 +17.5 3
1948-10-09 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa L 1-254.6 1540 1435 47.02% 14.13% 38.85%+0.61 -17.5 3
1948-10-10 Wacker Wien L 1-263.7 1669 1737 44.18% 14.14% 41.68%-0.22 -16.5 4
1948-10-10 @ First Vienna W 2-163.7 1737 1669 41.68% 14.14% 44.18%+0.22 +16.5 9
1948-10-10 FC Wien W 5-152.1 1713 1624 63.75% 14.07% 22.18%+1.40 +28.4 8
1948-10-10 @ Rapid Wien L 1-552.1 1624 1713 22.18% 14.07% 63.75%-1.40 -28.4 5
1948-10-10 Austria Wien W 1-059.7 1739 1787 47.01% 14.14% 38.85%-0.01 +15.7 10
1948-10-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-159.7 1787 1739 38.85% 14.14% 47.01%+0.01 -15.7 9
1948-10-16 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 4-251.2 1652 1452 73.07% 13.92% 13.01%+2.54 +8.5 6
1948-10-16 @ First Vienna L 2-451.2 1452 1652 13.01% 13.92% 73.07%-2.54 -8.4 3
1948-10-16 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-375.1 1523 1755 23.25% 14.03% 62.72%-1.91 +21.2 5
1948-10-16 @ Floridsdorfer L 3-475.1 1755 1523 62.72% 14.03% 23.25%+1.91 -21.2 10
1948-10-17 Rapid Wien W 3-268.5 1623 1741 37.08% 14.13% 48.79%-0.74 +17.1 9
1948-10-17 @ Admira Wien L 2-368.5 1741 1623 48.79% 14.13% 37.08%+0.74 -17.1 8
1948-10-17 SCR Hochstadt W 10-242.3 1771 1398 81.25% 13.53% 5.21%+4.33 +11.0 11
1948-10-17 @ Austria Wien L 2-1042.3 1398 1771 5.21% 13.53% 81.25%-4.33 -11.0 2
1948-10-23 Admira Wien L 1-746.2 1444 1640 27.21% 14.07% 58.72%-1.54 -49.5 3
1948-10-23 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 7-146.2 1640 1444 58.72% 14.07% 27.21%+1.54 +49.5 11
1948-10-23 SCR Hochstadt W 4-039.2 1734 1387 80.37% 13.60% 6.02%+4.06 +9.8 12
1948-10-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-439.2 1387 1734 6.02% 13.60% 80.37%-4.06 -9.8 2
1948-10-24 FC Wien L 1-267.2 1661 1595 61.26% 14.09% 24.65%+1.15 -22.4 6
1948-10-24 @ First Vienna W 2-167.2 1595 1661 24.65% 14.09% 61.26%-1.15 +22.4 7
1948-10-24 Austria Wien L 1-264.6 1724 1782 45.52% 14.14% 40.33%-0.12 -17.0 8
1948-10-24 @ Rapid Wien W 2-164.6 1782 1724 40.33% 14.14% 45.52%+0.12 +17.0 13
1948-10-24 Floridsdorfer D 3-379.3 1753 1544 73.69% 13.91% 12.41%+2.64 -3.7 10
1948-10-24 @ Wacker Wien D 3-379.3 1544 1753 12.41% 13.91% 73.69%-2.64 +3.7 6
1948-11-06 First Vienna L 2-363.4 1548 1638 40.96% 14.14% 44.90%-0.45 -14.7 6
1948-11-06 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-263.4 1638 1548 44.90% 14.14% 40.96%+0.45 +14.7 8
1948-11-06 Rapid Wien D 2-270.6 1377 1707 14.63% 13.87% 71.50%-2.92 +4.1 3
1948-11-06 @ SCR Hochstadt D 2-270.6 1707 1377 71.50% 13.87% 14.63%+2.92 -4.1 9
1948-11-07 Wiener Sport-Club W 8-155.7 1689 1743 46.15% 14.14% 39.71%-0.08 +79.8 13
1948-11-07 @ Admira Wien L 1-855.7 1743 1689 39.71% 14.14% 46.15%+0.08 -79.8 12
1948-11-07 Wacker Wien L 0-165.9 1799 1749 59.53% 14.11% 26.37%+0.99 -23.1 13
1948-11-07 @ Austria Wien W 1-065.9 1749 1799 26.37% 14.11% 59.53%-0.99 +23.1 12
1948-11-07 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 6-035.8 1618 1394 74.57% 13.88% 11.54%+2.78 +27.1 9
1948-11-07 @ FC Wien L 0-635.8 1394 1618 11.54% 13.88% 74.57%-2.78 -27.1 3
1948-11-28 Wacker Wien D 1-173.3 1645 1772 35.79% 14.12% 50.09%-0.84 +1.3 10
1948-11-28 @ FC Wien D 1-173.3 1772 1645 50.09% 14.12% 35.79%+0.84 -1.3 13
1949-02-26 Admira Wien D 1-173.3 1653 1769 37.36% 14.13% 48.52%-0.72 +1.0 9
1949-02-26 @ First Vienna D 1-173.3 1769 1653 48.52% 14.13% 37.36%+0.72 -1.0 14
1949-02-26 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-247.7 1367 1664 17.24% 13.93% 68.82%-2.57 -7.1 3
1949-02-26 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-147.7 1664 1367 68.82% 13.93% 17.24%+2.57 +7.1 14
1949-02-27 Austria Wien W 3-059.1 1646 1776 35.47% 14.12% 50.41%-0.86 +54.0 12
1949-02-27 @ FC Wien L 0-359.1 1776 1646 50.41% 14.12% 35.47%+0.86 -54.0 13
1949-02-27 SCR Hochstadt W 2-038.3 1533 1381 69.53% 14.00% 16.47%+2.05 +13.6 8
1949-02-27 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-238.3 1381 1533 16.47% 14.00% 69.53%-2.05 -13.6 3
1949-02-27 Rapid Wien L 1-269.3 1771 1703 61.61% 14.09% 24.30%+1.19 -22.5 13
1949-02-27 @ Wacker Wien W 2-169.3 1703 1771 24.30% 14.09% 61.61%-1.19 +22.5 11
1949-03-05 FC Wien L 0-145.1 1367 1700 14.43% 13.87% 71.70%-2.95 -6.4 3
1949-03-05 @ SCR Hochstadt W 1-045.1 1700 1367 71.70% 13.87% 14.43%+2.95 +6.4 14
1949-03-05 Wacker Wien L 2-367.1 1671 1749 42.73% 14.14% 43.13%-0.32 -15.2 14
1949-03-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-267.1 1749 1671 43.13% 14.14% 42.73%+0.32 +15.2 15
1949-03-06 Floridsdorfer W 8-454.9 1768 1547 74.46% 13.89% 11.65%+2.76 +11.4 16
1949-03-06 @ Admira Wien L 4-854.9 1547 1768 11.65% 13.89% 74.46%-2.76 -11.4 8
1949-03-06 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 4-037.8 1722 1360 80.89% 13.56% 5.55%+4.21 +9.1 15
1949-03-06 @ Austria Wien L 0-437.8 1360 1722 5.55% 13.56% 80.89%-4.21 -9.1 3
1949-03-07 First Vienna W 2-157.5 1725 1654 61.92% 14.09% 23.99%+1.22 +9.6 13
1949-03-07 @ Rapid Wien L 1-257.5 1654 1725 23.99% 14.09% 61.92%-1.22 -9.7 9
1949-03-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-156.6 1706 1655 59.66% 14.11% 26.24%+1.01 +18.1 16
1949-03-12 @ FC Wien L 1-356.6 1655 1706 26.24% 14.11% 59.66%-1.01 -18.1 14
1949-03-12 SCR Hochstadt D 3-363.3 1351 1361 52.18% 14.14% 33.69%+0.38 -1.0 4
1949-03-12 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa D 3-363.3 1361 1351 33.69% 14.14% 52.18%-0.38 +1.0 4
1949-03-13 Austria Wien W 2-163.6 1644 1731 41.45% 14.14% 44.41%-0.42 +16.6 11
1949-03-13 @ First Vienna L 1-263.6 1731 1644 44.41% 14.14% 41.45%+0.42 -16.6 15
1949-03-13 Rapid Wien L 2-852.7 1535 1735 26.80% 14.07% 59.14%-1.58 -40.4 8
1949-03-13 @ Floridsdorfer W 8-252.7 1735 1535 59.14% 14.07% 26.80%+1.58 +40.4 15
1949-03-13 Admira Wien W 3-160.0 1764 1779 51.43% 14.14% 34.44%+0.32 +23.1 17
1949-03-13 @ Wacker Wien L 1-360.0 1779 1764 34.44% 14.14% 51.43%-0.32 -23.1 16
1949-03-26 Wacker Wien L 0-342.4 1362 1787 9.01% 13.67% 77.33%-3.90 -11.1 4
1949-03-26 @ SCR Hochstadt W 3-042.4 1787 1362 77.33% 13.67% 9.01%+3.90 +11.1 19
1949-03-26 First Vienna D 1-172.2 1637 1661 50.36% 14.14% 35.50%+0.24 -1.3 15
1949-03-26 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-172.2 1661 1637 35.50% 14.14% 50.36%-0.24 +1.3 12
1949-03-27 FC Wien W 3-158.0 1756 1725 57.43% 14.12% 28.45%+0.81 +19.5 18
1949-03-27 @ Admira Wien L 1-358.0 1725 1756 28.45% 14.12% 57.43%-0.81 -19.5 16
1949-03-27 Floridsdorfer W 1-048.4 1715 1495 74.36% 13.89% 11.75%+2.75 +5.3 17
1949-03-27 @ Austria Wien L 0-148.4 1495 1715 11.75% 13.89% 74.36%-2.75 -5.3 8
1949-03-27 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 4-038.6 1775 1350 82.69% 13.38% 3.93%+4.87 +6.5 17
1949-03-27 @ Rapid Wien L 0-438.6 1350 1775 3.93% 13.38% 82.69%-4.87 -6.4 4
1949-04-09 FC Wien W 4-057.8 1490 1705 25.02% 14.05% 60.93%-1.74 +84.4 10
1949-04-09 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-457.8 1705 1490 60.93% 14.05% 25.02%+1.74 -84.4 16
1949-04-09 Wacker Wien L 0-243.6 1344 1798 7.71% 13.59% 78.70%-4.21 -6.6 4
1949-04-09 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-043.6 1798 1344 78.70% 13.59% 7.71%+4.21 +6.6 21
1949-04-10 Austria Wien L 1-564.6 1776 1720 60.23% 14.10% 25.67%+1.06 -69.6 18
1949-04-10 @ Admira Wien W 5-164.6 1720 1776 25.67% 14.10% 60.23%-1.06 +69.6 19
1949-04-10 SCR Hochstadt W 7-034.5 1662 1351 79.02% 13.69% 7.29%+3.69 +20.1 14
1949-04-10 @ First Vienna L 0-734.5 1351 1662 7.29% 13.69% 79.02%-3.69 -20.1 4
1949-04-10 Rapid Wien L 1-359.1 1636 1782 33.40% 14.11% 52.49%-1.02 -22.5 15
1949-04-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-159.1 1782 1636 52.49% 14.11% 33.40%+1.02 +22.5 19
1949-04-23 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-258.5 1789 1614 71.39% 13.96% 14.65%+2.30 +5.8 21
1949-04-23 @ Austria Wien L 2-358.5 1614 1789 14.65% 13.96% 71.39%-2.30 -5.8 15
1949-04-23 Admira Wien L 0-837.0 1331 1706 11.64% 13.78% 74.58%-3.39 -35.8 4
1949-04-23 @ SCR Hochstadt W 8-037.0 1706 1331 74.58% 13.78% 11.64%+3.39 +35.8 20
1949-04-24 Rapid Wien L 1-653.6 1621 1804 28.67% 14.08% 57.25%-1.41 -43.8 16
1949-04-24 @ FC Wien W 6-153.6 1804 1621 57.25% 14.08% 28.67%+1.41 +43.8 21
1949-04-24 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-036.5 1574 1337 75.39% 13.86% 10.76%+2.92 +9.1 12
1949-04-24 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-236.5 1337 1574 10.76% 13.86% 75.39%-2.92 -9.1 4
1949-04-24 First Vienna W 1-053.6 1805 1682 66.98% 14.04% 18.98%+1.74 +8.3 23
1949-04-24 @ Wacker Wien L 0-153.6 1682 1805 18.98% 14.04% 66.98%-1.74 -8.2 14
1949-04-28 Admira Wien W 4-154.3 1848 1742 65.44% 14.06% 20.50%+1.57 +20.5 23
1949-04-28 @ Rapid Wien L 1-454.3 1742 1848 20.50% 14.06% 65.44%-1.57 -20.5 20
1949-05-14 SCR Hochstadt W 9-139.8 1868 1295 85.40% 12.86% 1.73%+6.39 +4.5 25
1949-05-14 @ Rapid Wien L 1-939.8 1295 1868 1.73% 12.86% 85.40%-6.39 -4.5 4
1949-05-14 Admira Wien L 0-453.0 1608 1722 37.68% 14.13% 48.19%-0.69 -54.7 15
1949-05-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-053.0 1722 1608 48.19% 14.13% 37.68%+0.69 +54.7 22
1949-05-15 Floridsdorfer W 2-155.4 1674 1583 63.95% 14.07% 21.98%+1.42 +8.9 16
1949-05-15 @ First Vienna L 1-255.4 1583 1674 21.98% 14.07% 63.95%-1.42 -8.9 12
1949-05-15 Austria Wien L 3-1063.4 1813 1795 55.70% 14.13% 30.18%+0.66 -79.0 23
1949-05-15 @ Wacker Wien W 10-363.4 1795 1813 30.18% 14.13% 55.70%-0.66 +79.0 23
1949-05-25 Floridsdorfer W 4-048.3 1553 1574 50.66% 14.14% 35.20%+0.26 +51.5 17
1949-05-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-448.3 1574 1553 35.20% 14.14% 50.66%-0.26 -51.5 12
1949-05-26 FC Wien L 0-239.5 1328 1577 21.54% 14.01% 64.45%-2.09 -17.5 4
1949-05-26 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 2-039.5 1577 1328 64.45% 14.01% 21.54%+2.09 +17.5 18
1949-05-28 First Vienna D 3-379.0 1594 1683 41.21% 14.14% 44.65%-0.43 +0.2 19
1949-05-28 @ FC Wien D 3-379.0 1683 1594 44.65% 14.14% 41.21%+0.43 -0.2 17
1949-05-28 Wacker Wien W 4-164.0 1523 1734 25.48% 14.05% 60.46%-1.70 +54.1 14
1949-05-28 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-464.0 1734 1523 60.46% 14.05% 25.48%+1.70 -54.1 23
1949-05-29 SC Rapid Oberlaa W 9-036.4 1776 1310 83.60% 13.25% 3.15%+5.28 +11.1 24
1949-05-29 @ Admira Wien L 0-936.4 1310 1776 3.15% 13.25% 83.60%-5.28 -11.1 4
1949-05-29 Rapid Wien W 5-366.3 1874 1873 53.63% 14.13% 32.24%+0.49 +18.4 25
1949-05-29 @ Austria Wien L 3-566.3 1873 1874 32.24% 14.13% 53.63%-0.49 -18.4 25
1949-05-29 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-237.5 1291 1605 15.82% 13.90% 70.28%-2.76 -13.1 4
1949-05-29 @ SCR Hochstadt W 2-037.5 1605 1291 70.28% 13.90% 15.82%+2.76 +13.1 19
1949-06-01 Austria Wien L 2-942.3 1277 1893 3.23% 13.09% 83.68%-5.86 -6.0 4
1949-06-01 @ SCR Hochstadt W 9-242.3 1893 1277 83.68% 13.09% 3.23%+5.86 +6.0 27
1949-06-11 First Vienna L 0-337.3 1299 1683 11.18% 13.76% 75.06%-3.47 -13.7 4
1949-06-11 @ SC Rapid Oberlaa W 3-037.3 1683 1299 75.06% 13.76% 11.18%+3.47 +13.7 19
1949-06-11 FC Wien L 0-361.5 1680 1594 63.40% 14.08% 22.53%+1.36 -67.3 23
1949-06-11 @ Wacker Wien W 3-061.5 1594 1680 22.53% 14.08% 63.40%-1.36 +67.3 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1948-09-05 19.32% Wiener Sport-Club 1630 2 @ Wacker Wien 1749 0
2 1949-06-11 22.53% FC Wien 1594 3 @ Wacker Wien 1680 0
3 1948-10-16 23.25% @ Floridsdorfer 1523 4 Wiener Sport-Club 1755 3
4 1949-02-27 24.30% Rapid Wien 1703 2 @ Wacker Wien 1771 1
5 1948-10-24 24.65% FC Wien 1595 2 @ First Vienna 1661 1
6 1949-04-09 25.02% @ Floridsdorfer 1490 4 FC Wien 1705 0
7 1949-05-28 25.48% @ Floridsdorfer 1523 4 Wacker Wien 1734 1
8 1949-04-10 25.67% Austria Wien 1720 5 @ Admira Wien 1776 1
9 1948-11-07 26.37% Wacker Wien 1749 1 @ Austria Wien 1799 0
10 1949-05-15 30.18% Austria Wien 1795 10 @ Wacker Wien 1813 3
11 1948-09-05 35.11% Admira Wien 1608 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1588 2
12 1949-02-27 35.47% @ FC Wien 1646 3 Austria Wien 1776 0
13 1948-08-29 37.00% Floridsdorfer 1551 2 @ SCR Hochstadt 1517 0
14 1948-10-17 37.08% @ Admira Wien 1623 3 Rapid Wien 1741 2
15 1948-10-09 38.85% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1435 2 Floridsdorfer 1540 1
16 1948-09-05 39.49% @ First Vienna 1618 5 Rapid Wien 1719 1
17 1948-10-24 40.33% Austria Wien 1782 2 @ Rapid Wien 1724 1
18 1948-09-19 41.17% Wiener Sport-Club 1712 4 @ First Vienna 1647 2
19 1949-03-13 41.45% @ First Vienna 1644 2 Austria Wien 1731 1
20 1948-10-10 41.68% Wacker Wien 1737 2 @ First Vienna 1669 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1949-04-09 84.43 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1490 25.02% FC Wien 0 1705 60.93% 14.05%
2 1948-11-07 79.81 @ Admira Wien 8 1689 46.15% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1743 39.71% 14.14%
3 1949-05-15 79.04 Austria Wien 10 1795 30.18% @ Wacker Wien 3 1813 55.70% 14.13%
4 1949-04-10 69.60 Austria Wien 5 1720 25.67% @ Admira Wien 1 1776 60.23% 14.10%
5 1949-06-11 67.26 FC Wien 3 1594 22.53% @ Wacker Wien 0 1680 63.40% 14.08%
6 1949-05-14 54.68 Admira Wien 4 1722 48.19% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1608 37.68% 14.13%
7 1948-09-05 54.56 @ First Vienna 5 1618 39.49% Rapid Wien 1 1719 46.38% 14.13%
8 1949-05-28 54.09 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1523 25.48% Wacker Wien 1 1734 60.46% 14.05%
9 1949-02-27 54.02 @ FC Wien 3 1646 35.47% Austria Wien 0 1776 50.41% 14.12%
10 1949-05-25 51.53 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1553 50.66% Floridsdorfer 0 1574 35.20% 14.14%
11 1948-10-23 49.50 Admira Wien 7 1640 58.72% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1444 27.21% 14.07%
12 1948-09-05 48.71 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1630 19.32% @ Wacker Wien 0 1749 66.64% 14.04%
13 1948-09-26 47.04 First Vienna 4 1622 54.15% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1463 31.75% 14.10%
14 1949-04-24 43.84 Rapid Wien 6 1804 57.25% @ FC Wien 1 1621 28.67% 14.08%
15 1949-03-13 40.42 Rapid Wien 8 1735 59.14% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1535 26.80% 14.07%
16 1948-08-29 36.16 Floridsdorfer 2 1551 37.00% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1517 48.86% 14.14%
17 1949-04-23 35.78 Admira Wien 8 1706 74.58% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1331 11.64% 13.78%
18 1948-09-11 32.71 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1679 57.40% FC Wien 0 1648 28.49% 14.12%
19 1948-09-18 32.14 Rapid Wien 5 1682 60.50% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1470 25.44% 14.05%
20 1948-10-10 28.40 @ Rapid Wien 5 1713 63.75% FC Wien 1 1624 22.18% 14.07%
21 1948-11-07 27.07 @ FC Wien 6 1618 74.57% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1394 11.54% 13.88%
22 1948-09-19 25.88 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1712 41.17% @ First Vienna 2 1647 44.69% 14.14%
23 1948-09-11 24.94 @ Austria Wien 6 1753 62.88% First Vienna 2 1672 23.04% 14.08%
24 1948-11-07 23.08 Wacker Wien 1 1749 26.37% @ Austria Wien 0 1799 59.53% 14.11%
25 1949-03-13 23.08 @ Wacker Wien 3 1764 51.43% Admira Wien 1 1779 34.44% 14.14%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1948-10-24 79.3 @ Wacker Wien 3 1753 73.69% Floridsdorfer 3 1544 12.41% 13.91%
2 1949-05-28 79.0 @ FC Wien 3 1594 41.21% First Vienna 3 1683 44.65% 14.14%
3 1948-10-16 75.1 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1523 23.25% Wiener Sport-Club 3 1755 62.72% 14.03%
4 1948-08-28 73.5 @ Rapid Wien 1 1720 49.75% Wacker Wien 1 1748 36.11% 14.14%
5 1948-09-26 73.4 @ Rapid Wien 1 1714 50.31% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1738 35.55% 14.14%
6 1948-11-28 73.3 @ FC Wien 1 1645 35.79% Wacker Wien 1 1772 50.09% 14.12%
7 1949-02-26 73.3 @ First Vienna 1 1653 37.36% Admira Wien 1 1769 48.52% 14.13%
8 1948-09-26 73.1 @ Austria Wien 1 1793 72.68% Admira Wien 1 1599 13.39% 13.93%
9 1948-09-25 73.0 @ FC Wien 2 1627 63.79% Floridsdorfer 2 1537 22.14% 14.07%
10 1949-03-26 72.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1637 50.36% First Vienna 1 1661 35.50% 14.14%
11 1948-11-06 70.6 @ SCR Hochstadt 2 1377 14.63% Rapid Wien 2 1707 71.50% 13.87%
12 1949-02-27 69.3 Rapid Wien 2 1703 24.30% @ Wacker Wien 1 1771 61.61% 14.09%
13 1948-09-01 68.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1635 68.34% SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1497 17.64% 14.02%
14 1948-10-17 68.5 @ Admira Wien 3 1623 37.08% Rapid Wien 2 1741 48.79% 14.13%
15 1948-10-24 67.2 FC Wien 2 1595 24.65% @ First Vienna 1 1661 61.26% 14.09%
16 1949-03-05 67.1 Wacker Wien 3 1749 43.13% @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1671 42.73% 14.14%
17 1948-09-05 66.6 Admira Wien 3 1608 35.11% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1588 50.75% 14.14%
18 1949-05-29 66.3 @ Austria Wien 5 1874 53.63% Rapid Wien 3 1873 32.24% 14.13%
19 1948-11-07 65.9 Wacker Wien 1 1749 26.37% @ Austria Wien 0 1799 59.53% 14.11%
20 1948-09-19 65.8 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1712 41.17% @ First Vienna 2 1647 44.69% 14.14%
21 1948-09-05 65.4 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1630 19.32% @ Wacker Wien 0 1749 66.64% 14.04%
22 1948-10-24 64.6 Austria Wien 2 1782 40.33% @ Rapid Wien 1 1724 45.52% 14.14%
23 1949-04-10 64.6 Austria Wien 5 1720 25.67% @ Admira Wien 1 1776 60.23% 14.10%
24 1949-05-28 64.0 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1523 25.48% Wacker Wien 1 1734 60.46% 14.05%
25 1948-10-10 63.7 Wacker Wien 2 1737 41.68% @ First Vienna 1 1669 44.18% 14.14%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1949-04-10 34.5 @ First Vienna 7 1662 79.02% SCR Hochstadt 0 1351 7.29% 13.69%
2 1948-11-07 35.8 @ FC Wien 6 1618 74.57% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1394 11.54% 13.88%
3 1949-05-29 36.4 @ Admira Wien 9 1776 83.60% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1310 3.15% 13.25%
4 1949-04-24 36.5 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1574 75.39% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1337 10.76% 13.86%
5 1949-04-23 37.0 Admira Wien 8 1706 74.58% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1331 11.64% 13.78%
6 1949-06-11 37.3 First Vienna 3 1683 75.06% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1299 11.18% 13.76%
7 1949-05-29 37.5 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1605 70.28% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1291 15.82% 13.90%
8 1949-03-06 37.8 @ Austria Wien 4 1722 80.89% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1360 5.55% 13.56%
9 1949-02-27 38.3 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1533 69.53% SCR Hochstadt 0 1381 16.47% 14.00%
10 1949-03-27 38.6 @ Rapid Wien 4 1775 82.69% SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1350 3.93% 13.38%
11 1948-10-23 39.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1734 80.37% SCR Hochstadt 0 1387 6.02% 13.60%
12 1949-05-26 39.5 FC Wien 2 1577 64.45% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1328 21.54% 14.01%
13 1949-05-14 39.8 @ Rapid Wien 9 1868 85.40% SCR Hochstadt 1 1295 1.73% 12.86%
14 1948-10-09 41.8 @ Admira Wien 5 1604 72.30% SCR Hochstadt 1 1416 13.76% 13.94%
15 1948-09-08 42.1 @ Wacker Wien 4 1700 75.17% SCR Hochstadt 0 1467 10.97% 13.86%
16 1948-10-17 42.3 @ Austria Wien 10 1771 81.25% SCR Hochstadt 2 1398 5.21% 13.53%
17 1949-06-01 42.3 Austria Wien 9 1893 83.68% @ SCR Hochstadt 2 1277 3.23% 13.09%
18 1949-03-26 42.4 Wacker Wien 3 1787 77.33% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1362 9.01% 13.67%
19 1949-04-09 43.6 Wacker Wien 2 1798 78.70% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 0 1344 7.71% 13.59%
20 1949-03-05 45.1 FC Wien 1 1700 71.70% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1367 14.43% 13.87%
21 1948-09-05 45.5 @ FC Wien 2 1634 69.62% SCR Hochstadt 0 1481 16.38% 14.00%
22 1948-09-26 45.9 First Vienna 4 1622 54.15% @ SCR Hochstadt 0 1463 31.75% 14.10%
23 1948-10-23 46.2 Admira Wien 7 1640 58.72% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1444 27.21% 14.07%
24 1949-02-26 47.7 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1664 68.82% @ SC Rapid Oberlaa 1 1367 17.24% 13.93%
25 1949-05-25 48.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1553 50.66% Floridsdorfer 0 1574 35.20% 14.14%