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1943-44 Gauliga Season

72 games

Final

Champion

First Vienna

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

First Vienna

5.07 points above expected

27 points · 21.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Wiener Sport-Club

5.31 points below expected

9 points · 14.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 First Vienna 16 13 1 2 27 76 27 +49 21.93 +5.07
2 Floridsdorfer 16 9 4 3 22 43 33 +10 18.02 +3.98
3 Wiener AC 16 7 2 7 16 35 37 -2 17.76 -1.76
4 FC Wien 16 6 4 6 16 30 34 -4 15.77 +0.23
5 Austria Wien 16 8 0 8 16 35 41 -6 14.88 +1.12
6 LSV Markersdorf Pielach 16 6 3 7 15 43 45 -2 13.64 +1.36
7 Rapid Wien 16 5 3 8 13 37 42 -5 15.21 -2.21
8 Wacker Wien 16 4 2 10 10 30 51 -21 12.48 -2.48
9 Wiener Sport-Club 16 4 1 11 9 26 45 -19 14.31 -5.31

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 27 21.93 +5.07
2 Floridsdorfer 22 18.02 +3.98
3 LSV Markersdorf Pielach 15 13.64 +1.36
4 Austria Wien 16 14.88 +1.12
5 FC Wien 16 15.77 +0.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener Sport-Club 9 14.31 -5.31
2 Wacker Wien 10 12.48 -2.48
3 Rapid Wien 13 15.21 -2.21
4 Wiener AC 16 17.76 -1.76
5 FC Wien 16 15.77 +0.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Austria Wien 3 Mar 26 – Apr 23 1 in 40
2 First Vienna 8 Oct 10 – Jan 30 1 in 31
3 Wiener AC 4 Sep 12 – Oct 17 1 in 14
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Oct 3 – Oct 24 1 in 7
5 Wacker Wien 2 Apr 23 – Apr 30 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 5 Mar 19 – Apr 23 1 in 701
2 Wacker Wien 6 Oct 10 – Nov 28 1 in 56
3 Rapid Wien 4 Sep 12 – Oct 24 1 in 37
4 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Nov 14 – Jan 30 1 in 11
5 Austria Wien 3 Dec 12 – Mar 19 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 9 Aug 22 – Dec 12 1 in 52
2 Wiener AC 5 Nov 7 – Mar 5 1 in 16
3 LSV Markersdorf Pielach 3 Apr 2 – Apr 23 1 in 14
4 First Vienna 12 Oct 10 – Mar 26 1 in 14
5 Austria Wien 3 Mar 26 – Apr 23 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 5 Mar 19 – Apr 23 1 in 67
2 FC Wien 6 Nov 14 – Apr 2 1 in 27
3 Wacker Wien 7 Sep 12 – Nov 28 1 in 25
4 Rapid Wien 5 Sep 5 – Oct 24 1 in 23
5 Wiener Sport-Club 5 Sep 5 – Oct 17 1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
First Vienna 1948 27 +19 8 6.3 +1.7
Floridsdorfer 1813 22 +0 7 6.1 +0.9
Austria Wien 1715 16 +21 6 3.7 +2.3
FC Wien 1746 16 -2 6 5.8 +0.2
Wiener AC 1724 16 -93 0 6.0 -6.0
LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1708 15 +18 4 4.0 +0.0
Rapid Wien 1724 13 -16 4 5.9 -1.9
Wacker Wien 1631 10 +9 5 3.6 +1.4
Wiener Sport-Club 1685 9 +22 4 4.2 -0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW FW FV FLO LMP RW WW WA WS
Austria Wien —
0-0-2
2.85
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
2.33
2-0-0
3.14
2-0-0
2.57
0-0-2
3.44
2-0-0
2.33
2-0-0
2.87
FC Wien
2-0-0
2.86
 —
0-0-2
1.81
0-2-0
2.44
0-1-1
3.26
0-0-2
3.08
2-0-0
3.48
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
3.21
First Vienna
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
3.90
 —
1-0-1
3.58
1-1-0
4.11
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
3.42
2-0-0
4.21
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
3.38
0-2-0
3.27
1-0-1
2.13
 —
1-0-1
3.84
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.53
0-1-1
3.07
2-0-0
3.44
LSV Markersdorf Pielach
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
1.60
1-0-1
1.87
 —
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.14
2-0-0
2.61
Rapid Wien
0-0-2
3.13
2-0-0
2.63
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
3.06
 —
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
3.05
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
2.18
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.38
 —
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
2.56
Wiener AC
0-0-2
3.37
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.64
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
3.60
 —
1-0-1
3.52
Wiener Sport-Club
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
1.50
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
3.10
1-0-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.19
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +3.3
Allowed 0.80 -6.8
Differential 0.90 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.39%4.17%1.39%1.39%1.39%1.39%11.11%
14.17%1.39%9.72%3.47%4.86%2.78%26.39%
21.39%9.72%5.56%2.78%2.08%2.08%23.61%
31.39%3.47%2.78%2.78%1.39%0.69%12.50%
41.39%4.86%2.08%1.39%1.39%2.78%13.89%
5+1.39%2.78%2.08%0.69%2.78%2.78%12.50%
Total11.11%26.39%23.61%12.50%13.89%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.47 2.47 +0.00
SD 1.97 1.97 2.70
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 10 10 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————6.25%—6.25%
1——6.25%—12.50%6.25%25.00%
26.25%18.75%—6.25%——31.25%
3—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
4—12.50%———6.25%18.75%
5+———————
Total6.25%37.50%12.50%6.25%25.00%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 2.56 -0.38
SD 1.22 1.90 2.50
CV 0.56 0.74 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%—6.25%——25.00%
1—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
2—12.50%6.25%—6.25%6.25%31.25%
3——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
46.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%18.75%25.00%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 2.12 -0.25
SD 1.45 1.75 2.11
CV 0.78 0.82 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
16.25%———6.25%—12.50%
2———————
3—12.50%————12.50%
4—18.75%6.25%——6.25%31.25%
5+12.50%12.50%12.50%——6.25%43.75%
Total18.75%43.75%18.75%—6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.75 1.69 +3.06
SD 2.46 1.62 3.04
CV 0.52 0.96 —
Max 10 5 +8
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%————12.50%
1————6.25%—6.25%
2—18.75%12.50%——6.25%37.50%
36.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—6.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%
Total12.50%37.50%18.75%12.50%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 2.06 +0.62
SD 1.82 1.81 2.36
CV 0.68 0.88 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
1——6.25%6.25%—6.25%18.75%
26.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
3—12.50%—6.25%6.25%—25.00%
4———————
5+——6.25%——12.50%18.75%
Total6.25%31.25%18.75%18.75%6.25%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 2.81 -0.12
SD 1.89 2.43 2.73
CV 0.70 0.86 —
Max 7 9 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%———6.25%
16.25%—25.00%6.25%——37.50%
2—6.25%6.25%6.25%—6.25%25.00%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
4——6.25%—6.25%—12.50%
5+————6.25%—6.25%
Total12.50%6.25%43.75%18.75%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 2.62 -0.31
SD 2.12 2.28 2.77
CV 0.92 0.87 —
Max 9 10 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%31.25%
1——12.50%——6.25%18.75%
2—6.25%6.25%6.25%——18.75%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———6.25%6.25%6.25%18.75%
5+————6.25%—6.25%
Total—12.50%31.25%18.75%18.75%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 3.19 -1.31
SD 1.86 1.68 2.27
CV 0.99 0.53 —
Max 6 6 +2
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
112.50%6.25%12.50%—6.25%6.25%43.75%
2—6.25%6.25%—12.50%—25.00%
3———————
46.25%6.25%————12.50%
5+————6.25%6.25%12.50%
Total18.75%25.00%18.75%—25.00%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 2.31 -0.12
SD 1.87 1.92 2.09
CV 0.85 0.83 —
Max 7 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————6.25%6.25%
112.50%—25.00%12.50%12.50%—62.50%
2—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
3—————6.25%6.25%
4—————6.25%6.25%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total12.50%12.50%31.25%12.50%12.50%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 2.81 -1.19
SD 1.31 2.26 2.32
CV 0.81 0.80 —
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
First Vienna 1948 27 21.93 +5.07 96.6% 10 16 20 22 24 27 32
Floridsdorfer 1813 22 18.02 +3.98 91.5% 5 12 16 18 20 24 27
FC Wien 1746 16 15.77 +0.23 57.9% 4 10 13 16 18 22 27
Rapid Wien 1724 13 15.21 -2.21 30.8% 6 10 13 15 18 21 24
Wiener AC 1724 16 17.76 -1.76 37.0% 6 12 16 18 20 23 27
Austria Wien 1715 16 14.88 +1.12 66.9% 3 9 12 15 17 21 25
LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1708 15 13.64 +1.36 70.9% 3 8 11 14 16 19 25
Wiener Sport-Club 1685 9 14.31 -5.31 7.6% 5 9 12 14 17 20 27
Wacker Wien 1631 10 12.48 -2.48 27.5% 3 7 10 12 15 18 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.22%
Clear Edge
54.17%13.89%31.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge
99 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
078.52250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.82 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.79+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
12469
Champion Preseason Odds
64%
First Vienna, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.73 * Some Luck: 2.73 to 4.09 * Lucky: 4.09 to 5.46 * Wild Swing: 5.46 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.42 * Close: 1.42 to 2.13 * Off: 2.13 to 2.83 * Way Off: 2.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.11 points
Some Luck
03.419
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Pinpoint
01.774
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
96.60%
First Vienna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.60%
Wiener Sport-Club
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.40
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.85
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.141
Well Within Noise
00.1730.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
First Vienna63.90%18.10%7.80%4.60%3.30%1.30%0.70%—0.30%
Floridsdorfer12.00%24.80%21.30%12.90%11.20%7.60%4.80%3.60%1.80%
Wiener AC9.90%20.90%19.50%15.40%11.90%10.70%6.70%3.10%1.90%
FC Wien5.00%9.60%13.30%16.00%13.40%12.30%13.20%10.20%7.00%
Austria Wien2.60%7.20%12.00%12.60%12.30%12.80%15.10%12.60%12.80%
LSV Markersdorf Pielach1.20%4.80%5.70%10.40%11.90%14.40%15.60%17.50%18.50%
Rapid Wien3.20%8.20%10.30%14.80%14.20%14.20%13.00%12.40%9.70%
Wacker Wien0.60%1.70%2.80%4.20%8.40%11.80%15.20%21.80%33.50%
Wiener Sport-Club1.60%4.70%7.30%9.10%13.40%14.90%15.70%18.80%14.50%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
First Vienna 99.70% 0.30%
Floridsdorfer 98.20% 1.80%
Wiener AC 98.10% 1.90%
FC Wien 93.00% 7.00%
Rapid Wien 90.30% 9.70%
Austria Wien 87.20% 12.80%
Wiener Sport-Club 85.50% 14.50%
LSV Markersdorf Pielach 81.50% 18.50%
Wacker Wien 66.50% 33.50%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1943-08-22 Austria Wien L 2-368.1 1682 1742 50.59% 14.73% 34.68%+0.18 -9.9 0
1943-08-22 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 3-268.1 1742 1682 34.68% 14.73% 50.59%-0.18 +9.9 2
1943-08-22 FC Wien W 3-049.7 1739 1738 58.29% 14.69% 27.02%+0.80 +17.5 2
1943-08-22 @ Rapid Wien L 0-349.7 1738 1739 27.02% 14.69% 58.29%-0.80 -17.5 0
1943-08-22 Floridsdorfer L 4-671.2 1704 1765 50.58% 14.73% 34.69%+0.18 -14.8 0
1943-08-22 @ Wacker Wien W 6-471.2 1765 1704 34.69% 14.73% 50.58%-0.18 +14.8 2
1943-09-05 Wacker Wien L 2-372.4 1752 1689 64.96% 14.59% 20.45%+1.42 -12.6 2
1943-09-05 @ Austria Wien W 3-272.4 1689 1752 20.45% 14.59% 64.96%-1.42 +12.6 2
1943-09-05 Wiener AC W 4-260.7 1720 1769 52.21% 14.73% 33.07%+0.30 +11.2 2
1943-09-05 @ FC Wien L 2-460.7 1769 1720 33.07% 14.73% 52.21%-0.30 -11.2 0
1943-09-05 Floridsdorfer D 2-276.3 1756 1779 55.41% 14.71% 29.88%+0.56 -1.0 3
1943-09-05 @ Rapid Wien D 2-276.3 1779 1756 29.88% 14.71% 55.41%-0.56 +1.0 3
1943-09-05 LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 1-269.6 1758 1672 67.04% 14.54% 18.41%+1.65 -13.7 0
1943-09-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-169.6 1672 1758 18.41% 14.54% 67.04%-1.65 +13.7 2
1943-09-12 Floridsdorfer D 3-379.7 1732 1780 52.15% 14.73% 33.12%+0.30 -0.6 3
1943-09-12 @ FC Wien D 3-379.7 1780 1732 33.12% 14.73% 52.15%-0.30 +0.6 4
1943-09-12 Austria Wien L 1-267.8 1755 1740 59.97% 14.67% 25.36%+0.94 -12.3 3
1943-09-12 @ Rapid Wien W 2-167.8 1740 1755 25.36% 14.67% 59.97%-0.94 +12.3 4
1943-09-12 Wiener Sport-Club D 2-275.9 1702 1744 53.03% 14.72% 32.25%+0.37 -0.8 3
1943-09-12 @ Wacker Wien D 2-275.9 1744 1702 32.25% 14.72% 53.03%-0.37 +0.8 1
1943-09-12 First Vienna W 5-469.0 1758 1798 53.21% 14.72% 32.07%+0.38 +6.4 2
1943-09-12 @ Wiener AC L 4-569.0 1798 1758 32.07% 14.72% 53.21%-0.38 -6.4 0
1943-10-03 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-158.4 1731 1745 56.58% 14.70% 28.72%+0.65 +6.4 5
1943-10-03 @ FC Wien L 1-258.4 1745 1731 28.72% 14.70% 56.58%-0.65 -6.4 1
1943-10-03 Austria Wien W 6-149.4 1781 1752 61.45% 14.65% 23.90%+1.08 +20.9 6
1943-10-03 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-649.4 1752 1781 23.90% 14.65% 61.45%-1.08 -20.9 4
1943-10-03 LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 7-667.4 1764 1686 66.39% 14.56% 19.06%+1.58 +3.9 4
1943-10-03 @ Wiener AC L 6-767.4 1686 1764 19.06% 14.56% 66.39%-1.58 -4.0 2
1943-10-10 Austria Wien W 4-151.3 1792 1731 64.71% 14.60% 20.69%+1.40 +11.6 2
1943-10-10 @ First Vienna L 1-451.3 1731 1792 20.69% 14.60% 64.71%-1.40 -11.6 4
1943-10-10 Wacker Wien W 2-052.5 1682 1701 55.89% 14.71% 29.40%+0.60 +13.0 4
1943-10-10 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 0-252.5 1701 1682 29.40% 14.71% 55.89%-0.60 -13.0 3
1943-10-10 Wiener AC L 1-266.4 1743 1768 55.19% 14.71% 30.10%+0.54 -11.3 3
1943-10-10 @ Rapid Wien W 2-166.4 1768 1743 30.10% 14.71% 55.19%-0.54 +11.3 6
1943-10-10 Floridsdorfer L 3-569.1 1738 1802 50.19% 14.73% 35.08%+0.15 -15.2 1
1943-10-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-369.1 1802 1738 35.08% 14.73% 50.19%-0.15 +15.2 8
1943-10-17 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-153.1 1720 1723 57.79% 14.69% 27.52%+0.75 +15.0 6
1943-10-17 @ Austria Wien L 1-453.1 1723 1720 27.52% 14.69% 57.79%-0.75 -15.0 1
1943-10-17 Rapid Wien W 2-159.0 1695 1732 53.68% 14.72% 31.60%+0.42 +6.9 6
1943-10-17 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 1-259.0 1732 1695 31.60% 14.72% 53.68%-0.42 -6.9 3
1943-10-17 Wacker Wien W 4-045.0 1779 1688 67.55% 14.53% 17.92%+1.71 +15.7 8
1943-10-17 @ Wiener AC L 0-445.0 1688 1779 17.92% 14.53% 67.55%-1.71 -15.7 3
1943-10-24 Rapid Wien W 10-249.2 1803 1725 66.42% 14.56% 19.02%+1.58 +21.5 4
1943-10-24 @ First Vienna L 2-1049.2 1725 1803 19.02% 14.56% 66.42%-1.58 -21.5 3
1943-10-24 LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 2-154.6 1817 1702 69.57% 14.47% 15.96%+1.95 +3.7 10
1943-10-24 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-254.6 1702 1817 15.96% 14.47% 69.57%-1.95 -3.7 6
1943-10-24 FC Wien L 2-367.8 1672 1737 49.99% 14.73% 35.28%+0.13 -9.8 3
1943-10-24 @ Wacker Wien W 3-267.8 1737 1672 35.28% 14.73% 49.99%-0.13 +9.8 7
1943-10-31 Wiener AC W 4-155.5 1735 1795 50.61% 14.73% 34.66%+0.18 +18.4 8
1943-10-31 @ Austria Wien L 1-455.5 1795 1735 34.66% 14.73% 50.61%-0.18 -18.4 8
1943-10-31 FC Wien W 3-157.1 1698 1747 52.10% 14.73% 33.18%+0.29 +12.5 8
1943-10-31 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 1-357.1 1747 1698 33.18% 14.73% 52.10%-0.29 -12.5 7
1943-10-31 Rapid Wien L 1-265.0 1662 1703 53.19% 14.72% 32.09%+0.38 -10.9 3
1943-10-31 @ Wacker Wien W 2-165.0 1703 1662 32.09% 14.72% 53.19%-0.38 +10.9 5
1943-11-07 FC Wien L 0-457.8 1753 1735 60.29% 14.67% 25.04%+0.97 -46.8 8
1943-11-07 @ Austria Wien W 4-057.8 1735 1753 25.04% 14.67% 60.29%-0.97 +46.8 9
1943-11-07 LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 9-146.9 1825 1710 69.50% 14.47% 16.03%+1.94 +22.4 6
1943-11-07 @ First Vienna L 1-946.9 1710 1825 16.03% 14.47% 69.50%-1.94 -22.4 8
1943-11-07 Wiener AC D 2-276.4 1821 1777 63.06% 14.63% 22.32%+1.23 -1.6 11
1943-11-07 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-276.4 1777 1821 22.32% 14.63% 63.06%-1.23 +1.6 9
1943-11-07 Rapid Wien W 2-157.8 1708 1714 57.48% 14.69% 27.83%+0.73 +6.2 3
1943-11-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-257.8 1714 1708 27.83% 14.69% 57.48%-0.73 -6.2 5
1943-11-14 LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 3-154.4 1706 1688 60.27% 14.67% 25.06%+0.97 +9.8 10
1943-11-14 @ Austria Wien L 1-354.4 1688 1706 25.06% 14.67% 60.27%-0.97 -9.8 8
1943-11-14 Rapid Wien L 0-166.8 1781 1708 65.93% 14.57% 19.50%+1.53 -14.3 9
1943-11-14 @ FC Wien W 1-066.8 1708 1781 19.50% 14.57% 65.93%-1.53 +14.3 7
1943-11-14 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-043.3 1847 1714 70.95% 14.42% 14.64%+2.13 +16.0 8
1943-11-14 @ First Vienna L 0-543.3 1714 1847 14.64% 14.42% 70.95%-2.13 -16.0 3
1943-11-14 Wacker Wien W 3-045.1 1819 1652 73.38% 14.31% 12.31%+2.48 +8.5 13
1943-11-14 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-345.1 1652 1819 12.31% 14.31% 73.38%-2.48 -8.5 3
1943-11-28 First Vienna L 1-650.9 1643 1863 28.96% 14.59% 56.45%-1.43 -24.8 3
1943-11-28 @ Wacker Wien W 6-150.9 1863 1643 56.45% 14.59% 28.96%+1.43 +24.8 10
1943-11-28 Wiener AC L 1-459.4 1698 1778 47.96% 14.73% 37.31%-0.02 -24.4 3
1943-11-28 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-159.4 1778 1698 37.31% 14.73% 47.96%+0.02 +24.4 11
1943-12-05 FC Wien W 7-249.7 1888 1767 70.02% 14.45% 15.52%+2.01 +11.8 12
1943-12-05 @ First Vienna L 2-749.7 1767 1888 15.52% 14.45% 70.02%-2.01 -11.8 9
1943-12-12 Rapid Wien W 3-258.3 1828 1722 68.75% 14.50% 16.76%+1.85 +3.7 15
1943-12-12 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-358.3 1722 1828 16.76% 14.50% 68.75%-1.85 -3.7 7
1943-12-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-154.5 1678 1674 58.72% 14.68% 26.60%+0.83 +10.3 10
1943-12-12 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 1-354.5 1674 1678 26.60% 14.68% 58.72%-0.83 -10.3 3
1943-12-12 Austria Wien W 6-467.0 1618 1716 45.50% 14.73% 39.77%-0.19 +12.0 5
1943-12-12 @ Wacker Wien L 4-667.0 1716 1618 39.77% 14.73% 45.50%+0.19 -12.0 10
1943-12-12 FC Wien D 1-173.2 1803 1755 63.37% 14.62% 22.01%+1.26 -2.2 12
1943-12-12 @ Wiener AC D 1-173.2 1755 1803 22.01% 14.62% 63.37%-1.26 +2.2 10
1943-12-19 Floridsdorfer W 4-151.4 1900 1831 65.47% 14.58% 19.95%+1.48 +11.2 14
1943-12-19 @ First Vienna L 1-451.4 1831 1900 19.95% 14.58% 65.47%-1.48 -11.2 15
1944-01-30 First Vienna L 1-355.3 1664 1911 25.80% 14.53% 59.67%-1.70 -10.0 3
1944-01-30 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-155.3 1911 1664 59.67% 14.53% 25.80%+1.70 +10.0 16
1944-02-27 First Vienna D 5-585.2 1689 1921 27.51% 14.57% 57.93%-1.55 +0.8 11
1944-02-27 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach D 5-585.2 1921 1689 57.93% 14.57% 27.51%+1.55 -0.8 17
1944-02-27 Floridsdorfer W 1-056.2 1800 1820 55.84% 14.71% 29.45%+0.59 +6.9 14
1944-02-27 @ Wiener AC L 0-156.2 1820 1800 29.45% 14.71% 55.84%-0.59 -6.9 15
1944-03-05 Floridsdorfer L 1-263.1 1704 1813 43.86% 14.73% 41.42%-0.31 -9.2 10
1944-03-05 @ Austria Wien W 2-163.1 1813 1704 41.42% 14.73% 43.86%+0.31 +9.2 17
1944-03-05 Wacker Wien W 6-040.6 1920 1630 79.67% 13.81% 6.52%+3.71 +8.7 19
1944-03-05 @ First Vienna L 0-640.6 1630 1920 6.52% 13.81% 79.67%-3.71 -8.7 5
1944-03-05 Wiener AC L 0-159.9 1689 1807 42.61% 14.72% 42.67%-0.40 -9.5 11
1944-03-05 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 1-059.9 1807 1689 42.67% 14.72% 42.61%+0.40 +9.5 16
1944-03-05 FC Wien W 1-058.9 1654 1758 44.60% 14.73% 40.67%-0.26 +9.2 5
1944-03-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-158.9 1758 1654 40.67% 14.73% 44.60%+0.26 -9.1 10
1944-03-19 First Vienna L 1-453.5 1695 1929 27.31% 14.56% 58.13%-1.57 -14.9 10
1944-03-19 @ Austria Wien W 4-153.5 1929 1695 58.13% 14.56% 27.31%+1.57 +14.9 21
1944-03-19 Rapid Wien L 2-471.4 1817 1719 68.15% 14.51% 17.34%+1.78 -21.6 16
1944-03-19 @ Wiener AC W 4-271.4 1719 1817 17.34% 14.51% 68.15%-1.78 +21.6 9
1944-03-26 Rapid Wien W 2-054.3 1680 1740 50.63% 14.73% 34.64%+0.18 +15.0 12
1944-03-26 @ Austria Wien L 0-254.3 1740 1680 34.64% 14.73% 50.63%-0.18 -15.0 9
1944-03-26 Wiener AC W 1-051.5 1944 1795 72.08% 14.37% 13.54%+2.28 +3.4 23
1944-03-26 @ First Vienna L 0-151.5 1795 1944 13.54% 14.37% 72.08%-2.28 -3.4 16
1944-03-26 FC Wien D 0-071.0 1822 1748 65.98% 14.57% 19.45%+1.53 -2.8 18
1944-03-26 @ Floridsdorfer D 0-071.0 1748 1822 19.45% 14.57% 65.98%-1.53 +2.8 11
1944-03-26 Wacker Wien W 1-052.2 1663 1622 62.75% 14.63% 22.62%+1.20 +5.5 7
1944-03-26 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-152.2 1622 1663 22.62% 14.63% 62.75%-1.20 -5.5 5
1944-04-02 LSV Markersdorf Pielach D 2-275.9 1751 1680 65.73% 14.57% 19.69%+1.51 -1.8 12
1944-04-02 @ FC Wien D 2-275.9 1680 1751 19.69% 14.57% 65.73%-1.51 +1.8 12
1944-04-02 First Vienna W 4-158.7 1820 1947 41.22% 14.71% 44.06%-0.49 +22.6 20
1944-04-02 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-458.7 1947 1820 44.06% 14.71% 41.22%+0.49 -22.6 23
1944-04-02 Wacker Wien D 4-481.8 1725 1616 69.06% 14.49% 16.45%+1.89 -1.5 10
1944-04-02 @ Rapid Wien D 4-481.8 1616 1725 16.45% 14.49% 69.06%-1.89 +1.5 6
1944-04-02 Austria Wien L 1-270.1 1792 1695 68.04% 14.52% 17.44%+1.76 -13.9 16
1944-04-02 @ Wiener AC W 2-170.1 1695 1792 17.44% 14.52% 68.04%-1.76 +13.9 14
1944-04-09 Wiener Sport-Club W 9-453.4 1724 1668 64.21% 14.61% 21.19%+1.35 +13.2 12
1944-04-09 @ Rapid Wien L 4-953.4 1668 1724 21.19% 14.61% 64.21%-1.35 -13.2 7
1944-04-16 Wacker Wien W 2-153.4 1749 1618 70.84% 14.42% 14.73%+2.11 +3.5 14
1944-04-16 @ FC Wien L 1-253.4 1618 1749 14.73% 14.42% 70.84%-2.11 -3.4 6
1944-04-16 Floridsdorfer W 7-259.5 1682 1842 36.62% 14.68% 48.69%-0.83 +32.7 14
1944-04-16 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach L 2-759.5 1842 1682 48.69% 14.68% 36.62%+0.83 -32.7 20
1944-04-16 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-563.9 1778 1655 70.18% 14.45% 15.37%+2.03 -45.5 16
1944-04-16 @ Wiener AC W 5-163.9 1655 1778 15.37% 14.45% 70.18%-2.03 +45.4 9
1944-04-23 First Vienna L 2-461.7 1753 1925 35.11% 14.67% 50.22%-0.94 -11.8 14
1944-04-23 @ FC Wien W 4-261.7 1925 1753 50.22% 14.67% 35.11%+0.94 +11.8 25
1944-04-23 LSV Markersdorf Pielach D 3-379.4 1737 1714 60.76% 14.66% 24.58%+1.02 -1.2 13
1944-04-23 @ Rapid Wien D 3-379.4 1714 1737 24.58% 14.66% 60.76%-1.02 +1.2 15
1944-04-23 Wiener AC W 2-161.7 1614 1733 42.55% 14.72% 42.72%-0.40 +9.0 8
1944-04-23 @ Wacker Wien L 1-261.7 1733 1614 42.72% 14.72% 42.55%+0.40 -9.0 16
1944-04-23 Austria Wien L 1-266.6 1700 1709 57.20% 14.70% 28.10%+0.70 -11.7 9
1944-04-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-166.6 1709 1700 28.10% 14.70% 57.20%-0.70 +11.7 16
1944-04-30 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-154.4 1810 1689 70.02% 14.45% 15.53%+2.01 +3.6 22
1944-04-30 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-254.4 1689 1810 15.53% 14.45% 70.02%-2.01 -3.6 9
1944-04-30 LSV Markersdorf Pielach W 4-367.3 1623 1715 46.25% 14.73% 39.02%-0.14 +7.7 10
1944-04-30 @ Wacker Wien L 3-467.3 1715 1623 39.02% 14.73% 46.25%+0.14 -7.7 15
1944-04-30 Austria Wien W 4-363.8 1741 1721 60.53% 14.66% 24.81%+1.00 +5.2 16
1944-04-30 @ FC Wien L 3-463.8 1721 1741 24.81% 14.66% 60.53%-1.00 -5.2 16
1944-05-13 First Vienna L 1-357.1 1736 1937 31.37% 14.63% 54.00%-1.23 -11.9 13
1944-05-13 @ Rapid Wien W 3-157.1 1937 1736 54.00% 14.63% 31.37%+1.23 +11.9 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1944-04-16 15.37% Wiener Sport-Club 1655 5 @ Wiener AC 1778 1
2 1944-03-19 17.34% Rapid Wien 1719 4 @ Wiener AC 1817 2
3 1944-04-02 17.44% Austria Wien 1695 2 @ Wiener AC 1792 1
4 1943-09-05 18.41% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1672 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1758 1
5 1943-11-14 19.50% Rapid Wien 1708 1 @ FC Wien 1781 0
6 1943-09-05 20.45% Wacker Wien 1689 3 @ Austria Wien 1752 2
7 1943-11-07 25.04% FC Wien 1735 4 @ Austria Wien 1753 0
8 1943-09-12 25.36% Austria Wien 1740 2 @ Rapid Wien 1755 1
9 1944-04-23 28.10% Austria Wien 1709 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1700 1
10 1943-10-10 30.10% Wiener AC 1768 2 @ Rapid Wien 1743 1
11 1943-10-31 32.09% Rapid Wien 1703 2 @ Wacker Wien 1662 1
12 1943-08-22 34.68% Austria Wien 1742 3 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1682 2
13 1943-08-22 34.69% Floridsdorfer 1765 6 @ Wacker Wien 1704 4
14 1943-10-10 35.08% Floridsdorfer 1802 5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1738 3
15 1943-10-24 35.28% FC Wien 1737 3 @ Wacker Wien 1672 2
16 1944-04-16 36.62% @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1682 7 Floridsdorfer 1842 2
17 1943-11-28 37.31% Wiener AC 1778 4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1698 1
18 1944-04-02 41.22% @ Floridsdorfer 1820 4 First Vienna 1947 1
19 1944-03-05 41.42% Floridsdorfer 1813 2 @ Austria Wien 1704 1
20 1944-04-23 42.55% @ Wacker Wien 1614 2 Wiener AC 1733 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-11-07 46.81 FC Wien 4 1735 25.04% @ Austria Wien 0 1753 60.29% 14.67%
2 1944-04-16 45.46 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1655 15.37% @ Wiener AC 1 1778 70.18% 14.45%
3 1944-04-16 32.69 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 7 1682 36.62% Floridsdorfer 2 1842 48.69% 14.68%
4 1943-11-28 24.81 First Vienna 6 1863 56.45% @ Wacker Wien 1 1643 28.96% 14.59%
5 1943-11-28 24.39 Wiener AC 4 1778 37.31% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1698 47.96% 14.73%
6 1944-04-02 22.63 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1820 41.22% First Vienna 1 1947 44.06% 14.71%
7 1943-11-07 22.42 @ First Vienna 9 1825 69.50% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1 1710 16.03% 14.47%
8 1944-03-19 21.61 Rapid Wien 4 1719 17.34% @ Wiener AC 2 1817 68.15% 14.51%
9 1943-10-24 21.47 @ First Vienna 10 1803 66.42% Rapid Wien 2 1725 19.02% 14.56%
10 1943-10-03 20.91 @ Floridsdorfer 6 1781 61.45% Austria Wien 1 1752 23.90% 14.65%
11 1943-10-31 18.41 @ Austria Wien 4 1735 50.61% Wiener AC 1 1795 34.66% 14.73%
12 1943-08-22 17.52 @ Rapid Wien 3 1739 58.29% FC Wien 0 1738 27.02% 14.69%
13 1943-11-14 16.04 @ First Vienna 5 1847 70.95% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1714 14.64% 14.42%
14 1943-10-17 15.74 @ Wiener AC 4 1779 67.55% Wacker Wien 0 1688 17.92% 14.53%
15 1943-10-10 15.19 Floridsdorfer 5 1802 35.08% @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1738 50.19% 14.73%
16 1943-10-17 15.02 @ Austria Wien 4 1720 57.79% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1723 27.52% 14.69%
17 1944-03-26 15.02 @ Austria Wien 2 1680 50.63% Rapid Wien 0 1740 34.64% 14.73%
18 1944-03-19 14.89 First Vienna 4 1929 58.13% @ Austria Wien 1 1695 27.31% 14.56%
19 1943-08-22 14.78 Floridsdorfer 6 1765 34.69% @ Wacker Wien 4 1704 50.58% 14.73%
20 1943-11-14 14.30 Rapid Wien 1 1708 19.50% @ FC Wien 0 1781 65.93% 14.57%
21 1944-04-02 13.92 Austria Wien 2 1695 17.44% @ Wiener AC 1 1792 68.04% 14.52%
22 1943-09-05 13.72 LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1672 18.41% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1758 67.04% 14.54%
23 1944-04-09 13.25 @ Rapid Wien 9 1724 64.21% Wiener Sport-Club 4 1668 21.19% 14.61%
24 1943-10-10 13.01 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1682 55.89% Wacker Wien 0 1701 29.40% 14.71%
25 1943-09-05 12.60 Wacker Wien 3 1689 20.45% @ Austria Wien 2 1752 64.96% 14.59%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1944-02-27 85.2 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 5 1689 27.51% First Vienna 5 1921 57.93% 14.57%
2 1944-04-02 81.8 @ Rapid Wien 4 1725 69.06% Wacker Wien 4 1616 16.45% 14.49%
3 1943-09-12 79.7 @ FC Wien 3 1732 52.15% Floridsdorfer 3 1780 33.12% 14.73%
4 1944-04-23 79.4 @ Rapid Wien 3 1737 60.76% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 3 1714 24.58% 14.66%
5 1943-11-07 76.4 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1821 63.06% Wiener AC 2 1777 22.32% 14.63%
6 1943-09-05 76.3 @ Rapid Wien 2 1756 55.41% Floridsdorfer 2 1779 29.88% 14.71%
7 1943-09-12 75.9 @ Wacker Wien 2 1702 53.03% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1744 32.25% 14.72%
8 1944-04-02 75.9 @ FC Wien 2 1751 65.73% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1680 19.69% 14.57%
9 1943-12-12 73.2 @ Wiener AC 1 1803 63.37% FC Wien 1 1755 22.01% 14.62%
10 1943-09-05 72.4 Wacker Wien 3 1689 20.45% @ Austria Wien 2 1752 64.96% 14.59%
11 1944-03-19 71.4 Rapid Wien 4 1719 17.34% @ Wiener AC 2 1817 68.15% 14.51%
12 1943-08-22 71.2 Floridsdorfer 6 1765 34.69% @ Wacker Wien 4 1704 50.58% 14.73%
13 1944-03-26 71.0 @ Floridsdorfer 0 1822 65.98% FC Wien 0 1748 19.45% 14.57%
14 1944-04-02 70.1 Austria Wien 2 1695 17.44% @ Wiener AC 1 1792 68.04% 14.52%
15 1943-09-05 69.6 LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1672 18.41% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1758 67.04% 14.54%
16 1943-10-10 69.1 Floridsdorfer 5 1802 35.08% @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1738 50.19% 14.73%
17 1943-09-12 69.0 @ Wiener AC 5 1758 53.21% First Vienna 4 1798 32.07% 14.72%
18 1943-08-22 68.1 Austria Wien 3 1742 34.68% @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1682 50.59% 14.73%
19 1943-09-12 67.8 Austria Wien 2 1740 25.36% @ Rapid Wien 1 1755 59.97% 14.67%
20 1943-10-24 67.8 FC Wien 3 1737 35.28% @ Wacker Wien 2 1672 49.99% 14.73%
21 1943-10-03 67.4 @ Wiener AC 7 1764 66.39% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 6 1686 19.06% 14.56%
22 1944-04-30 67.3 @ Wacker Wien 4 1623 46.25% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 3 1715 39.02% 14.73%
23 1943-12-12 67.0 @ Wacker Wien 6 1618 45.50% Austria Wien 4 1716 39.77% 14.73%
24 1943-11-14 66.8 Rapid Wien 1 1708 19.50% @ FC Wien 0 1781 65.93% 14.57%
25 1944-04-23 66.6 Austria Wien 2 1709 28.10% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1700 57.20% 14.70%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1944-03-05 40.6 @ First Vienna 6 1920 79.67% Wacker Wien 0 1630 6.52% 13.81%
2 1943-11-14 43.3 @ First Vienna 5 1847 70.95% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1714 14.64% 14.42%
3 1943-10-17 45.0 @ Wiener AC 4 1779 67.55% Wacker Wien 0 1688 17.92% 14.53%
4 1943-11-14 45.1 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1819 73.38% Wacker Wien 0 1652 12.31% 14.31%
5 1943-11-07 46.9 @ First Vienna 9 1825 69.50% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1 1710 16.03% 14.47%
6 1943-10-24 49.2 @ First Vienna 10 1803 66.42% Rapid Wien 2 1725 19.02% 14.56%
7 1943-10-03 49.4 @ Floridsdorfer 6 1781 61.45% Austria Wien 1 1752 23.90% 14.65%
8 1943-08-22 49.7 @ Rapid Wien 3 1739 58.29% FC Wien 0 1738 27.02% 14.69%
9 1943-12-05 49.7 @ First Vienna 7 1888 70.02% FC Wien 2 1767 15.52% 14.45%
10 1943-11-28 50.9 First Vienna 6 1863 56.45% @ Wacker Wien 1 1643 28.96% 14.59%
11 1943-10-10 51.3 @ First Vienna 4 1792 64.71% Austria Wien 1 1731 20.69% 14.60%
12 1943-12-19 51.4 @ First Vienna 4 1900 65.47% Floridsdorfer 1 1831 19.95% 14.58%
13 1944-03-26 51.5 @ First Vienna 1 1944 72.08% Wiener AC 0 1795 13.54% 14.37%
14 1944-03-26 52.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1663 62.75% Wacker Wien 0 1622 22.62% 14.63%
15 1943-10-10 52.5 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 2 1682 55.89% Wacker Wien 0 1701 29.40% 14.71%
16 1943-10-17 53.1 @ Austria Wien 4 1720 57.79% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1723 27.52% 14.69%
17 1944-04-09 53.4 @ Rapid Wien 9 1724 64.21% Wiener Sport-Club 4 1668 21.19% 14.61%
18 1944-04-16 53.4 @ FC Wien 2 1749 70.84% Wacker Wien 1 1618 14.73% 14.42%
19 1944-03-19 53.5 First Vienna 4 1929 58.13% @ Austria Wien 1 1695 27.31% 14.56%
20 1944-03-26 54.3 @ Austria Wien 2 1680 50.63% Rapid Wien 0 1740 34.64% 14.73%
21 1943-11-14 54.4 @ Austria Wien 3 1706 60.27% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1 1688 25.06% 14.67%
22 1944-04-30 54.4 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1810 70.02% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1689 15.53% 14.45%
23 1943-12-12 54.5 @ LSV Markersdorf Pielach 3 1678 58.72% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1674 26.60% 14.68%
24 1943-10-24 54.6 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1817 69.57% LSV Markersdorf Pielach 1 1702 15.96% 14.47%
25 1944-01-30 55.3 First Vienna 3 1911 59.67% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1664 25.80% 14.53%