Home / Leagues / Austria / Gauliga / 1942-43

1942-43 Gauliga Season

110 games

Final

Champion

First Vienna

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiener AC

5.35 points above expected

26 points · 20.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sturm Graz

8.99 points below expected

2 points · 10.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 First Vienna 20 13 4 3 30 87 56 +31 26.74 +3.26
2 Wiener AC 20 10 6 4 26 45 29 +16 20.65 +5.35
3 Floridsdorfer 20 11 3 6 25 61 41 +20 21.00 +4.00
4 Wiener Sport-Club 20 10 5 5 25 55 44 +11 21.94 +3.06
5 Austria Wien 20 11 2 7 24 53 52 +1 20.26 +3.74
6 Rapid Wien 20 10 2 8 22 65 53 +12 23.80 -1.80
7 FC Wien 20 7 4 9 18 48 49 -1 20.04 -2.04
8 Reichsbahn SG 20 5 6 9 16 38 38 0 17.39 -1.39
9 Admira Wien 20 6 4 10 16 38 42 -4 19.07 -3.07
10 Wacker Wien 20 4 8 8 16 32 40 -8 17.12 -1.12
11 Sturm Graz 20 0 2 18 2 21 99 -78 10.99 -8.99

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener AC 26 20.65 +5.35
2 Floridsdorfer 25 21.00 +4.00
3 Austria Wien 24 20.26 +3.74
4 First Vienna 30 26.74 +3.26
5 Wiener Sport-Club 25 21.94 +3.06

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sturm Graz 2 10.99 -8.99
2 Admira Wien 16 19.07 -3.07
3 FC Wien 18 20.04 -2.04
4 Rapid Wien 22 23.80 -1.80
5 Reichsbahn SG 16 17.39 -1.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Oct 25 – Feb 14 1 in 228
2 Floridsdorfer 4 Aug 30 – Oct 4 1 in 66
3 Austria Wien 4 Dec 6 – Mar 7 1 in 54
4 Wiener AC 4 Oct 3 – Oct 25 1 in 49
5 FC Wien 3 Apr 11 – Apr 25 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sturm Graz 13 Sep 13 – Mar 28 1 in 368
2 Rapid Wien 5 Dec 6 – Mar 7 1 in 283
3 Austria Wien 4 Mar 28 – Apr 25 1 in 91
4 First Vienna 2 Oct 18 – Oct 25 1 in 13
5 Reichsbahn SG 3 Sep 13 – Oct 11 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener Sport-Club 10 Oct 4 – Feb 28 1 in 80
2 Floridsdorfer 5 Aug 23 – Oct 4 1 in 15
3 Wiener AC 6 Mar 7 – Apr 26 1 in 13
4 Austria Wien 5 Nov 15 – Mar 7 1 in 13
5 First Vienna 10 Nov 1 – Apr 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 12 Aug 30 – Feb 28 1 in 104
2 Sturm Graz 20 Aug 16 – May 9 1 in 47
3 Rapid Wien 5 Dec 6 – Mar 7 1 in 20
4 Admira Wien 5 Mar 28 – Apr 26 1 in 20
5 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Feb 28 – Apr 11 1 in 16

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
First Vienna 1843 30 -7 6 7.1 -1.1
Wiener AC 1771 26 +4 6 5.8 +0.2
Floridsdorfer 1763 25 -20 5 5.7 -0.7
Wiener Sport-Club 1748 25 -25 5 5.4 -0.4
Austria Wien 1718 24 -63 2 5.1 -3.1
Rapid Wien 1706 22 +16 7 5.3 +1.7
FC Wien 1704 18 +26 6 5.3 +0.7
Reichsbahn SG 1679 16 +57 7 4.9 +2.1
Wacker Wien 1633 16 +4 5 4.2 +0.8
Admira Wien 1664 16 +6 4 4.9 -0.9
Sturm Graz 1352 2 -44 1 2.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FW FV FLO RW RS SG WW WA WS
Admira Wien
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.32
0-0-2
1.70
0-1-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.02
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
2.33
Austria Wien
1-1-0
2.80
2-0-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.09
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
2.60
FC Wien
0-0-2
3.24
0-0-2
2.86
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.05
1-1-0
3.17
2-0-0
3.95
1-1-0
3.41
0-0-2
2.31
1-1-0
2.33
First Vienna
2-0-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
4.04
0-1-1
3.47
0-0-2
3.58
Floridsdorfer
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
3.04
0-0-2
1.92
2-0-0
1.76
2-0-0
3.33
2-0-0
4.23
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.72
Rapid Wien
1-0-1
3.54
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
3.51
0-1-1
2.31
0-0-2
3.80
1-0-1
3.47
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.96
Reichsbahn SG
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
1.35
0-0-2
2.23
1-0-1
2.09
2-0-0
4.24
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.18
Sturm Graz
0-1-1
1.44
0-0-2
1.58
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
0.86
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.34
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.59
Wacker Wien
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.15
0-1-1
1.53
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-2
2.04
1-1-0
2.71
1-1-0
3.90
0-2-0
2.14
0-2-0
2.06
Wiener AC
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
3.00
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
3.67
0-2-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.61
Wiener Sport-Club
2-0-0
3.23
0-0-2
2.96
0-1-1
3.22
2-0-0
1.98
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.98
0-2-0
3.50
1-0-1
2.95

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.71 +3.6
Allowed 0.41 -2.7
Differential 0.89 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.64%0.91%3.18%2.27%1.36%0.91%12.27%
10.91%4.55%6.36%4.55%1.36%5.45%23.18%
23.18%6.36%7.27%4.55%2.73%2.73%26.82%
32.27%4.55%4.55%3.64%0.45%1.36%16.82%
41.36%1.36%2.73%0.45%0.91%6.82%
5+0.91%5.45%2.73%1.36%0.91%2.73%14.09%
Total12.27%23.18%26.82%16.82%6.82%14.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.47 2.47 +0.00
SD 2.06 2.06 3.04
CV 0.83 0.83
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%
15.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%30.00%
215.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%45.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%
Total15.00%15.00%30.00%35.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 2.10 -0.20
SD 1.65 1.41 2.44
CV 0.87 0.67
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%
15.00%10.00%15.00%
210.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%30.00%
320.00%5.00%25.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
Total15.00%35.00%20.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.65 2.60 +0.05
SD 1.84 2.89 3.85
CV 0.70 1.11
Max 6 10 +6
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%25.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
310.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
Total5.00%30.00%30.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 2.45 -0.05
SD 1.93 1.76 2.46
CV 0.80 0.72
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
1
210.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
415.00%5.00%20.00%
5+10.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
Total5.00%10.00%35.00%30.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.35 2.80 +1.55
SD 2.25 1.77 2.89
CV 0.52 0.63
Max 9 8 +7
Min 2 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%
15.00%10.00%15.00%
220.00%5.00%25.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
45.00%10.00%15.00%
5+5.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
Total15.00%30.00%20.00%25.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.05 2.05 +1.00
SD 2.58 1.82 3.21
CV 0.85 0.89
Max 11 8 +11
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%
25.00%10.00%15.00%
35.00%15.00%5.00%25.00%
410.00%5.00%10.00%25.00%
5+15.00%15.00%
Total20.00%20.00%20.00%5.00%10.00%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.25 2.65 +0.60
SD 2.31 2.32 3.73
CV 0.71 0.88
Max 10 7 +9
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
220.00%15.00%35.00%
310.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%
Total15.00%15.00%40.00%25.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 1.90 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.12 1.62
CV 0.66 0.59
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%30.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%40.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%25.00%
35.00%5.00%
4
5+
Total5.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 4.95 -3.90
SD 0.89 2.76 2.75
CV 0.84 0.56
Max 3 11 +0
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
110.00%15.00%15.00%5.00%45.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%25.00%
3
4
5+5.00%5.00%10.00%
Total15.00%25.00%35.00%20.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 2.00 -0.40
SD 1.88 1.49 2.30
CV 1.17 0.74
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
115.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
25.00%15.00%20.00%
35.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
4
5+10.00%5.00%15.00%
Total20.00%40.00%25.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 1.45 +0.80
SD 2.07 1.23 2.38
CV 0.92 0.85
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
310.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+5.00%10.00%15.00%
Total5.00%35.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.75 2.20 +0.55
SD 1.77 1.47 2.11
CV 0.64 0.67
Max 8 5 +6
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
First Vienna 1843 30 26.74 +3.26 84.9% 15 21 24 27 29 33 36
Wiener AC 1771 26 20.65 +5.35 89.0% 9 14 18 21 23 27 32
Floridsdorfer 1763 25 21.00 +4.00 88.6% 11 15 18 21 24 27 32
Wiener Sport-Club 1748 25 21.94 +3.06 81.0% 11 16 19 22 25 29 33
Austria Wien 1718 24 20.26 +3.74 87.0% 10 14 18 20 23 27 33
Rapid Wien 1706 22 23.80 -1.80 34.8% 9 18 21 24 26 30 35
FC Wien 1704 18 20.04 -2.04 34.3% 10 14 17 20 23 26 34
Reichsbahn SG 1679 16 17.39 -1.39 42.5% 6 12 15 17 20 24 30
Admira Wien 1664 16 19.07 -3.07 25.1% 6 13 16 19 22 25 30
Wacker Wien 1633 16 17.12 -1.12 43.0% 6 11 15 17 20 23 30
Sturm Graz 1352 2 10.99 -8.99 0.1% 2 6 9 11 13 17 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-8.18%
No Edge
35.45%20.91%43.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -28.49 Elo pts.
111 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.15 goals
Neutral
-2-0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
First Vienna, 1st of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.20/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6 * Wild Swing: 6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.33 * Off: 2.33 to 3.1 * Way Off: 3.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.93 points
Some Luck
03.759
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.09
Pinpoint
01.944
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
89.00%
Wiener AC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
0.10%
Sturm Graz
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.71
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
62%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
94%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Frequent
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1560.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
First Vienna52.10%23.90%10.20%4.40%3.80%3.10%1.80%0.40%0.30%
Wiener AC5.60%9.60%12.60%13.70%11.30%11.20%10.80%9.30%8.40%6.30%1.20%
Floridsdorfer5.60%10.00%12.60%14.50%13.80%12.70%9.60%9.60%6.60%4.10%0.90%
Wiener Sport-Club9.90%13.90%14.20%12.80%12.30%10.60%9.70%6.70%5.90%3.50%0.50%
Austria Wien3.80%5.70%10.50%11.30%14.20%11.30%11.60%12.80%10.40%6.80%1.60%
Rapid Wien17.30%22.30%18.70%12.30%10.20%5.30%7.40%3.70%1.70%1.00%0.10%
FC Wien2.90%5.90%9.60%13.10%9.50%13.20%11.50%12.70%12.10%7.80%1.70%
Reichsbahn SG0.70%2.30%3.50%4.60%8.10%10.60%11.20%13.80%17.30%21.30%6.60%
Admira Wien1.40%4.70%5.70%9.10%10.40%13.10%12.80%14.50%13.20%11.80%3.30%
Wacker Wien0.70%1.70%2.40%3.90%6.30%8.60%12.80%14.10%16.00%24.80%8.70%
Sturm Graz0.30%0.10%0.30%0.80%2.40%8.10%12.60%75.40%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
First Vienna 99.30% 0.70%
Rapid Wien 93.50% 5.40% 1.10%
Wiener Sport-Club 83.40% 12.60% 4.00%
Floridsdorfer 78.80% 16.20% 5.00%
Wiener AC 74.80% 17.70% 7.50%
Austria Wien 68.40% 23.20% 8.40%
FC Wien 65.70% 24.80% 9.50%
Admira Wien 57.20% 27.70% 15.10%
Sturm Graz 1.50% 10.50% 88.00%
Reichsbahn SG 100%
Wacker Wien 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1942-08-16 Austria Wien L 1-656.9 1701 1709 37.70% 22.17% 40.12%-0.33 -40.0 0
1942-08-16 @ Admira Wien W 6-156.9 1709 1701 40.12% 22.17% 37.70%+0.33 +40.0 2
1942-08-16 First Vienna L 2-461.4 1653 1739 27.55% 22.03% 50.42%-1.03 -12.4 0
1942-08-16 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-261.4 1739 1653 50.42% 22.03% 27.55%+1.03 +12.4 2
1942-08-16 Wacker Wien W 4-053.7 1721 1698 42.13% 22.17% 35.70%-0.05 +37.5 2
1942-08-16 @ Rapid Wien L 0-453.7 1698 1721 35.70% 22.17% 42.13%+0.05 -37.5 0
1942-08-16 Wiener AC L 1-557.4 1652 1646 39.71% 22.18% 38.12%-0.21 -34.0 0
1942-08-16 @ Sturm Graz W 5-157.4 1646 1652 38.12% 22.18% 39.71%+0.21 +34.0 2
1942-08-16 Reichsbahn SG D 2-272.3 1684 1652 43.46% 22.15% 34.39%+0.03 -0.4 1
1942-08-16 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-272.3 1652 1684 34.39% 22.15% 43.46%-0.03 +0.4 1
1942-08-22 Reichsbahn SG W 1-059.2 1661 1652 40.14% 22.17% 37.68%-0.18 +11.0 2
1942-08-22 @ Wacker Wien L 0-159.2 1652 1661 37.68% 22.17% 40.14%+0.18 -11.0 1
1942-08-23 Rapid Wien L 1-1056.6 1749 1759 37.59% 22.17% 40.24%-0.34 -69.1 2
1942-08-23 @ Austria Wien W 10-156.6 1759 1749 40.24% 22.17% 37.59%+0.34 +69.1 4
1942-08-23 First Vienna L 1-756.0 1727 1752 35.44% 22.16% 42.40%-0.48 -45.1 0
1942-08-23 @ FC Wien W 7-156.0 1752 1727 42.40% 22.16% 35.44%+0.48 +45.1 4
1942-08-23 Admira Wien D 3-375.5 1641 1661 36.10% 22.17% 41.73%-0.44 +0.2 1
1942-08-23 @ Floridsdorfer D 3-375.5 1661 1641 41.73% 22.17% 36.10%+0.44 -0.2 1
1942-08-23 Sturm Graz W 8-255.2 1684 1618 47.94% 22.09% 29.98%+0.34 +32.6 3
1942-08-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-855.2 1618 1684 29.98% 22.09% 47.94%-0.34 -32.6 0
1942-08-30 FC Wien W 3-267.0 1661 1682 35.91% 22.17% 41.92%-0.45 +10.6 3
1942-08-30 @ Admira Wien L 2-367.0 1682 1661 41.92% 22.17% 35.91%+0.45 -10.6 0
1942-08-30 Austria Wien D 2-272.1 1641 1680 33.48% 22.14% 44.37%-0.61 +0.5 2
1942-08-30 @ Reichsbahn SG D 2-272.1 1680 1641 44.37% 22.14% 33.48%+0.61 -0.5 3
1942-08-30 Floridsdorfer L 2-471.7 1828 1641 61.20% 21.48% 17.32%+1.42 -24.4 4
1942-08-30 @ Rapid Wien W 4-271.7 1641 1828 17.32% 21.48% 61.20%-1.42 +24.4 3
1942-08-30 Sturm Graz D 0-065.8 1672 1585 50.54% 22.02% 27.44%+0.52 -1.6 3
1942-08-30 @ Wacker Wien D 0-065.8 1585 1672 27.44% 22.02% 50.54%-0.52 +1.6 1
1942-08-30 Wiener AC L 1-264.6 1716 1680 43.98% 22.15% 33.87%+0.07 -11.7 3
1942-08-30 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-164.6 1680 1716 33.87% 22.15% 43.98%-0.07 +11.7 4
1942-09-13 Sturm Graz W 3-156.2 1680 1587 51.32% 22.00% 26.68%+0.58 +13.5 5
1942-09-13 @ Austria Wien L 1-356.2 1587 1680 26.68% 22.00% 51.32%-0.58 -13.5 1
1942-09-13 Rapid Wien L 0-351.4 1671 1803 22.39% 21.82% 55.79%-1.45 -19.6 0
1942-09-13 @ FC Wien W 3-051.4 1803 1671 55.79% 21.82% 22.39%+1.45 +19.6 6
1942-09-13 Admira Wien W 3-051.6 1797 1671 55.05% 21.86% 23.09%+0.87 +20.1 6
1942-09-13 @ First Vienna L 0-351.6 1671 1797 23.09% 21.86% 55.05%-0.87 -20.1 3
1942-09-13 Reichsbahn SG W 2-161.2 1666 1642 42.31% 22.16% 35.53%-0.04 +9.8 5
1942-09-13 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-261.2 1642 1666 35.53% 22.16% 42.31%+0.04 -9.9 2
1942-09-13 Wiener AC D 1-169.4 1670 1692 35.83% 22.17% 42.00%-0.45 +0.4 4
1942-09-13 @ Wacker Wien D 1-169.4 1692 1670 42.00% 22.17% 35.83%+0.45 -0.4 5
1942-09-27 Rapid Wien L 2-360.7 1651 1823 18.60% 21.58% 59.82%-1.80 -5.5 3
1942-09-27 @ Admira Wien W 3-260.7 1823 1651 59.82% 21.58% 18.60%+1.80 +5.5 8
1942-09-27 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-161.8 1693 1705 37.29% 22.17% 40.53%-0.36 +18.9 7
1942-09-27 @ Austria Wien L 1-361.8 1705 1693 40.53% 22.17% 37.29%+0.36 -18.9 3
1942-09-27 FC Wien L 2-655.9 1573 1652 28.42% 22.05% 49.53%-0.96 -22.1 1
1942-09-27 @ Sturm Graz W 6-255.9 1652 1573 49.53% 22.05% 28.42%+0.96 +22.1 2
1942-09-27 Floridsdorfer L 1-263.5 1692 1676 41.20% 22.17% 36.63%-0.11 -11.1 5
1942-09-27 @ Wiener AC W 2-163.5 1676 1692 36.63% 22.17% 41.20%+0.11 +11.1 7
1942-10-03 Austria Wien W 6-158.4 1680 1712 34.46% 22.16% 43.38%-0.54 +44.7 7
1942-10-03 @ Wiener AC L 1-658.4 1712 1680 43.38% 22.16% 34.46%+0.54 -44.7 7
1942-10-04 FC Wien L 1-358.7 1632 1674 33.10% 22.14% 44.76%-0.63 -16.1 2
1942-10-04 @ Reichsbahn SG W 3-158.7 1674 1632 44.76% 22.14% 33.10%+0.63 +16.1 4
1942-10-04 First Vienna D 3-377.2 1828 1817 40.56% 22.17% 37.26%-0.15 -0.1 9
1942-10-04 @ Rapid Wien D 3-377.2 1817 1828 37.26% 22.17% 40.56%+0.15 +0.1 7
1942-10-04 Floridsdorfer L 2-457.8 1551 1687 22.03% 21.80% 56.16%-1.48 -10.3 1
1942-10-04 @ Sturm Graz W 4-257.8 1687 1551 56.16% 21.80% 22.03%+1.48 +10.3 9
1942-10-04 Wacker Wien D 5-581.4 1686 1670 41.07% 22.17% 36.75%-0.12 -0.1 4
1942-10-04 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 5-581.4 1670 1686 36.75% 22.17% 41.07%+0.12 +0.1 5
1942-10-11 Admira Wien L 0-255.3 1616 1646 34.70% 22.16% 43.15%-0.53 -19.4 2
1942-10-11 @ Reichsbahn SG W 2-055.3 1646 1616 43.15% 22.16% 34.70%+0.53 +19.3 5
1942-10-11 First Vienna L 1-549.0 1541 1817 11.13% 20.68% 68.19%-2.74 -11.3 1
1942-10-11 @ Sturm Graz W 5-149.0 1817 1541 68.19% 20.68% 11.13%+2.74 +11.4 9
1942-10-11 Austria Wien L 0-257.8 1671 1667 39.37% 22.18% 38.46%-0.23 -21.4 5
1942-10-11 @ Wacker Wien W 2-057.8 1667 1671 38.46% 22.18% 39.37%+0.23 +21.4 9
1942-10-11 FC Wien W 2-161.7 1725 1690 43.88% 22.15% 33.97%+0.06 +9.5 9
1942-10-11 @ Wiener AC L 1-261.7 1690 1725 33.97% 22.15% 43.88%-0.06 -9.5 4
1942-10-11 Floridsdorfer W 2-163.4 1686 1697 37.29% 22.17% 40.53%-0.36 +10.9 6
1942-10-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-263.4 1697 1686 40.53% 22.17% 37.29%+0.36 -10.9 9
1942-10-18 Sturm Graz W 8-148.4 1665 1529 56.18% 21.80% 22.02%+0.97 +35.2 7
1942-10-18 @ Admira Wien L 1-848.4 1529 1665 22.02% 21.80% 56.18%-0.97 -35.2 1
1942-10-18 Wiener Sport-Club D 5-581.6 1680 1696 36.61% 22.17% 41.22%-0.40 +0.1 5
1942-10-18 @ FC Wien D 5-581.6 1696 1680 41.22% 22.17% 36.61%+0.40 -0.1 7
1942-10-18 Wiener AC L 2-863.2 1828 1735 51.38% 22.00% 26.62%+0.59 -50.7 9
1942-10-18 @ First Vienna W 8-263.2 1735 1828 26.62% 22.00% 51.38%-0.59 +50.7 11
1942-10-18 Wacker Wien W 2-161.0 1686 1649 44.06% 22.15% 33.79%+0.07 +9.5 11
1942-10-18 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-261.0 1649 1686 33.79% 22.15% 44.06%-0.07 -9.5 5
1942-10-18 Reichsbahn SG L 2-570.7 1828 1596 65.01% 21.11% 13.88%+1.83 -35.5 9
1942-10-18 @ Rapid Wien W 5-270.7 1596 1828 13.88% 21.11% 65.01%-1.83 +35.5 4
1942-10-25 Floridsdorfer W 3-161.5 1689 1695 37.96% 22.17% 39.86%-0.32 +18.7 11
1942-10-25 @ Austria Wien L 1-361.5 1695 1689 39.86% 22.17% 37.96%+0.32 -18.7 11
1942-10-25 Rapid Wien L 0-444.2 1494 1793 9.94% 20.45% 69.61%-2.95 -12.2 1
1942-10-25 @ Sturm Graz W 4-044.2 1793 1494 69.61% 20.45% 9.94%+2.95 +12.2 11
1942-10-25 FC Wien D 2-272.1 1640 1680 33.26% 22.14% 44.60%-0.62 +0.5 6
1942-10-25 @ Wacker Wien D 2-272.1 1680 1640 44.60% 22.14% 33.26%+0.62 -0.5 6
1942-10-25 Admira Wien W 3-263.6 1785 1700 50.36% 22.03% 27.61%+0.51 +7.6 13
1942-10-25 @ Wiener AC L 2-363.6 1700 1785 27.61% 22.03% 50.36%-0.51 -7.6 7
1942-10-25 First Vienna W 3-270.2 1696 1777 28.09% 22.04% 49.87%-0.99 +12.3 9
1942-10-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-370.2 1777 1696 49.87% 22.04% 28.09%+0.99 -12.3 9
1942-10-31 Sturm Graz W 3-045.5 1632 1482 57.67% 21.72% 20.61%+1.09 +18.2 6
1942-10-31 @ Reichsbahn SG L 0-345.5 1482 1632 20.61% 21.72% 57.67%-1.09 -18.2 1
1942-11-01 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-257.5 1693 1709 36.63% 22.17% 41.20%-0.40 -20.2 7
1942-11-01 @ Admira Wien W 2-057.5 1709 1693 41.20% 22.17% 36.63%+0.40 +20.2 11
1942-11-01 Austria Wien L 1-261.8 1680 1707 35.03% 22.16% 42.81%-0.51 -9.7 6
1942-11-01 @ FC Wien W 2-161.8 1707 1680 42.81% 22.16% 35.03%+0.51 +9.7 13
1942-11-01 Wacker Wien W 4-260.1 1765 1640 55.00% 21.86% 23.14%+0.87 +10.7 11
1942-11-01 @ First Vienna L 2-460.1 1640 1765 23.14% 21.86% 55.00%-0.87 -10.7 6
1942-11-01 Wiener AC W 5-158.4 1805 1793 40.60% 22.17% 37.23%-0.15 +32.3 13
1942-11-01 @ Rapid Wien L 1-558.4 1793 1805 37.23% 22.17% 40.60%+0.15 -32.3 13
1942-11-08 First Vienna L 2-956.2 1717 1776 30.90% 22.11% 47.00%-0.79 -38.3 13
1942-11-08 @ Austria Wien W 9-256.2 1776 1717 47.00% 22.11% 30.90%+0.79 +38.3 13
1942-11-08 FC Wien D 0-067.0 1677 1670 39.85% 22.17% 37.97%-0.20 -0.1 12
1942-11-08 @ Floridsdorfer D 0-067.0 1670 1677 37.97% 22.17% 39.85%+0.20 +0.1 7
1942-11-08 Admira Wien L 1-260.4 1630 1672 32.96% 22.14% 44.90%-0.64 -9.3 6
1942-11-08 @ Wacker Wien W 2-160.4 1672 1630 44.90% 22.14% 32.96%+0.64 +9.3 9
1942-11-08 Reichsbahn SG W 3-262.3 1761 1650 53.39% 21.93% 24.68%+0.74 +7.0 15
1942-11-08 @ Wiener AC L 2-362.3 1650 1761 24.68% 21.93% 53.39%-0.74 -7.0 6
1942-11-08 Rapid Wien W 4-164.4 1729 1837 24.93% 21.94% 53.13%-1.23 +33.8 13
1942-11-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-464.4 1837 1729 53.13% 21.94% 24.93%+1.23 -33.8 13
1942-11-14 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-356.7 1643 1763 23.72% 21.89% 54.40%-1.33 -12.3 6
1942-11-14 @ Reichsbahn SG W 3-156.7 1763 1643 54.40% 21.89% 23.72%+1.33 +12.3 15
1942-11-15 Admira Wien D 2-272.5 1679 1682 38.51% 22.18% 39.31%-0.28 +0.0 14
1942-11-15 @ Austria Wien D 2-272.5 1682 1679 39.31% 22.18% 38.51%+0.28 -0.0 10
1942-11-15 Floridsdorfer W 8-667.5 1814 1677 56.38% 21.79% 21.83%+0.98 +9.0 15
1942-11-15 @ First Vienna L 6-867.5 1677 1814 21.83% 21.79% 56.38%-0.98 -9.0 12
1942-11-15 Rapid Wien L 1-453.1 1620 1803 17.60% 21.50% 60.90%-1.91 -13.4 6
1942-11-15 @ Wacker Wien W 4-153.1 1803 1620 60.90% 21.50% 17.60%+1.91 +13.4 15
1942-11-15 Sturm Graz W 2-046.8 1768 1464 69.95% 20.38% 9.67%+2.48 +6.3 17
1942-11-15 @ Wiener AC L 0-246.8 1464 1768 9.67% 20.38% 69.95%-2.48 -6.3 1
1942-12-06 Floridsdorfer L 1-361.5 1682 1668 40.91% 22.17% 36.91%-0.13 -19.1 10
1942-12-06 @ Admira Wien W 3-161.5 1668 1682 36.91% 22.17% 40.91%+0.13 +19.1 14
1942-12-06 Wacker Wien D 2-270.9 1631 1607 42.32% 22.16% 35.51%-0.04 -0.3 7
1942-12-06 @ Reichsbahn SG D 2-270.9 1607 1631 35.51% 22.16% 42.32%+0.04 +0.3 7
1942-12-06 FC Wien W 4-259.6 1823 1670 57.97% 21.70% 20.33%+1.12 +9.6 17
1942-12-06 @ First Vienna L 2-459.6 1670 1823 20.33% 21.70% 57.97%-1.12 -9.6 7
1942-12-06 Austria Wien L 2-666.9 1817 1679 56.41% 21.79% 21.80%+0.99 -39.1 15
1942-12-06 @ Rapid Wien W 6-266.9 1679 1817 21.80% 21.79% 56.41%-0.99 +39.1 16
1942-12-06 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-251.5 1458 1775 9.03% 20.23% 70.74%-3.12 -2.9 1
1942-12-06 @ Sturm Graz W 2-151.5 1775 1458 70.74% 20.23% 9.03%+3.12 +2.9 17
1942-12-13 Reichsbahn SG D 2-273.4 1833 1631 62.59% 21.36% 16.06%+1.56 -2.3 18
1942-12-13 @ First Vienna D 2-273.4 1631 1833 16.06% 21.36% 62.59%-1.56 +2.3 8
1943-02-14 Rapid Wien W 7-160.6 1687 1778 26.92% 22.01% 51.07%-1.08 +60.9 16
1943-02-14 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-760.6 1778 1687 51.07% 22.01% 26.92%+1.08 -60.9 15
1943-02-14 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-361.8 1774 1778 38.35% 22.18% 39.47%-0.29 -18.1 17
1943-02-14 @ Wiener AC W 3-161.8 1778 1774 39.47% 22.18% 38.35%+0.29 +18.1 19
1943-02-21 First Vienna L 2-360.9 1663 1830 18.93% 21.61% 59.46%-1.77 -5.5 10
1943-02-21 @ Admira Wien W 3-260.9 1830 1663 59.46% 21.61% 18.93%+1.77 +5.5 20
1943-02-21 Floridsdorfer L 2-361.9 1633 1748 24.22% 21.91% 53.87%-1.29 -6.8 8
1943-02-21 @ Reichsbahn SG W 3-261.9 1748 1633 53.87% 21.91% 24.22%+1.29 +6.8 18
1943-02-21 FC Wien L 4-672.4 1717 1661 46.66% 22.11% 31.23%+0.25 -17.4 15
1943-02-21 @ Rapid Wien W 6-472.4 1661 1717 31.23% 22.11% 46.66%-0.25 +17.4 9
1943-02-21 Austria Wien L 0-641.6 1455 1718 11.85% 20.81% 67.34%-2.63 -21.2 1
1943-02-21 @ Sturm Graz W 6-041.6 1718 1455 67.34% 20.81% 11.85%+2.63 +21.2 18
1943-02-21 Wacker Wien D 1-169.5 1756 1607 57.54% 21.73% 20.73%+1.08 -2.3 18
1943-02-21 @ Wiener AC D 1-169.5 1607 1756 20.73% 21.73% 57.54%-1.08 +2.3 8
1943-02-28 Wiener AC W 2-059.2 1739 1753 36.88% 22.17% 40.94%-0.39 +22.0 20
1943-02-28 @ Austria Wien L 0-259.2 1753 1739 40.94% 22.17% 36.88%+0.39 -22.0 18
1943-02-28 Reichsbahn SG D 1-168.8 1678 1626 46.12% 22.12% 31.76%+0.21 -0.9 10
1943-02-28 @ FC Wien D 1-168.8 1626 1678 31.76% 22.12% 46.12%-0.21 +0.9 9
1943-02-28 Rapid Wien W 6-465.6 1836 1699 56.28% 21.80% 21.92%+0.97 +9.4 22
1943-02-28 @ First Vienna L 4-665.6 1699 1836 21.92% 21.80% 56.28%-0.97 -9.4 15
1943-02-28 Sturm Graz W 11-043.2 1754 1433 70.95% 20.19% 8.86%+2.64 +28.6 20
1943-02-28 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-1143.2 1433 1754 8.86% 20.19% 70.95%-2.64 -28.6 1
1943-02-28 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-169.9 1610 1796 17.32% 21.48% 61.20%-1.94 +2.8 9
1943-02-28 @ Wacker Wien D 1-169.9 1796 1610 61.20% 21.48% 17.32%+1.94 -2.8 20
1943-03-07 First Vienna L 3-462.9 1627 1845 14.82% 21.22% 63.95%-2.23 -4.3 9
1943-03-07 @ Reichsbahn SG W 4-362.9 1845 1627 63.95% 21.22% 14.82%+2.23 +4.3 24
1943-03-07 Sturm Graz W 4-144.8 1677 1405 67.94% 20.72% 11.34%+2.20 +9.0 12
1943-03-07 @ FC Wien L 1-444.8 1405 1677 11.34% 20.72% 67.94%-2.20 -8.9 1
1943-03-07 Wiener AC L 0-358.8 1783 1731 46.07% 22.12% 31.81%+0.21 -35.3 20
1943-03-07 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-058.8 1731 1783 31.81% 22.12% 46.07%-0.21 +35.3 20
1943-03-07 Admira Wien L 0-259.1 1690 1657 43.55% 22.15% 34.29%+0.04 -23.2 15
1943-03-07 @ Rapid Wien W 2-059.1 1657 1690 34.29% 22.15% 43.55%-0.04 +23.2 12
1943-03-07 Austria Wien L 1-363.3 1793 1761 43.40% 22.15% 34.44%+0.03 -20.0 20
1943-03-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-163.3 1761 1793 34.44% 22.15% 43.40%-0.03 +20.0 22
1943-03-28 Reichsbahn SG L 1-362.8 1680 1623 46.87% 22.11% 31.02%+0.26 -21.3 12
1943-03-28 @ Admira Wien W 3-162.8 1623 1680 31.02% 22.11% 46.87%-0.26 +21.3 11
1943-03-28 Wacker Wien L 0-166.3 1781 1612 59.56% 21.60% 18.84%+1.27 -16.3 22
1943-03-28 @ Austria Wien W 1-066.3 1612 1781 18.84% 21.60% 59.56%-1.27 +16.3 11
1943-03-28 Wiener AC L 1-260.1 1686 1767 28.16% 22.04% 49.80%-0.98 -8.2 12
1943-03-28 @ FC Wien W 2-160.1 1767 1686 49.80% 22.04% 28.16%+0.98 +8.2 22
1943-03-28 Sturm Graz W 8-348.3 1850 1396 77.08% 18.44% 4.49%+3.83 +4.2 26
1943-03-28 @ First Vienna L 3-848.3 1396 1850 4.49% 18.44% 77.08%-3.83 -4.2 1
1943-03-28 Wiener Sport-Club D 3-377.0 1748 1773 35.34% 22.16% 42.50%-0.49 +0.3 21
1943-03-28 @ Floridsdorfer D 3-377.0 1773 1748 42.50% 22.16% 35.34%+0.49 -0.3 21
1943-04-04 Reichsbahn SG L 0-360.8 1765 1644 54.58% 21.88% 23.54%+0.83 -41.0 22
1943-04-04 @ Austria Wien W 3-060.8 1644 1765 23.54% 21.88% 54.58%-0.83 +41.0 13
1943-04-11 Rapid Wien L 2-366.9 1685 1667 41.49% 22.17% 36.34%-0.09 -10.6 13
1943-04-11 @ Reichsbahn SG W 3-266.9 1667 1685 36.34% 22.17% 41.49%+0.09 +10.6 17
1943-04-11 Admira Wien D 2-266.1 1392 1659 11.63% 20.77% 67.59%-2.67 +2.8 2
1943-04-11 @ Sturm Graz D 2-266.1 1659 1392 67.59% 20.77% 11.63%+2.67 -2.8 13
1943-04-11 Floridsdorfer L 0-449.8 1629 1748 23.72% 21.89% 54.40%-1.33 -26.9 11
1943-04-11 @ Wacker Wien W 4-049.8 1748 1629 54.40% 21.89% 23.72%+1.33 +26.9 23
1943-04-11 First Vienna D 3-377.2 1775 1854 28.34% 22.05% 49.61%-0.97 +0.8 23
1943-04-11 @ Wiener AC D 3-377.2 1854 1775 49.61% 22.05% 28.34%+0.97 -0.8 27
1943-04-11 FC Wien L 1-562.2 1773 1678 51.55% 21.99% 26.46%+0.60 -42.4 21
1943-04-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-162.2 1678 1773 26.46% 21.99% 51.55%-0.60 +42.4 14
1943-04-17 Wacker Wien W 2-157.8 1720 1602 54.31% 21.89% 23.80%+0.81 +7.1 16
1943-04-17 @ FC Wien L 1-257.8 1602 1720 23.80% 21.89% 54.31%-0.81 -7.1 11
1943-04-18 Wiener AC D 1-169.9 1656 1776 23.70% 21.89% 54.42%-1.33 +1.9 14
1943-04-18 @ Admira Wien D 1-169.9 1776 1656 54.42% 21.89% 23.70%+1.33 -1.9 24
1943-04-18 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-470.3 1853 1730 54.77% 21.87% 23.36%+0.85 -22.0 27
1943-04-18 @ First Vienna W 4-270.3 1730 1853 23.36% 21.87% 54.77%-0.85 +22.0 23
1943-04-18 Austria Wien W 2-161.4 1775 1724 45.99% 22.12% 31.89%+0.20 +9.0 25
1943-04-18 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-261.4 1724 1775 31.89% 22.12% 45.99%-0.20 -9.0 22
1943-04-18 Sturm Graz W 7-141.3 1677 1394 68.64% 20.61% 10.75%+2.29 +15.9 19
1943-04-18 @ Rapid Wien L 1-741.3 1394 1677 10.75% 20.61% 68.64%-2.29 -15.9 2
1943-04-25 Wacker Wien L 1-264.0 1658 1595 47.61% 22.09% 30.29%+0.31 -12.5 14
1943-04-25 @ Admira Wien W 2-164.0 1595 1658 30.29% 22.09% 47.61%-0.31 +12.5 13
1943-04-25 Wiener AC D 0-067.7 1674 1774 25.94% 21.97% 52.08%-1.15 +1.8 14
1943-04-25 @ Reichsbahn SG D 0-067.7 1774 1674 52.08% 21.97% 25.94%+1.15 -1.8 25
1943-04-25 Floridsdorfer W 3-164.2 1727 1784 31.17% 22.11% 46.72%-0.77 +21.3 18
1943-04-25 @ FC Wien L 1-364.2 1784 1727 46.72% 22.11% 31.17%+0.77 -21.3 25
1943-04-25 Austria Wien W 6-361.8 1831 1715 54.05% 21.90% 24.05%+0.79 +14.1 29
1943-04-25 @ First Vienna L 3-661.8 1715 1831 24.05% 21.90% 54.05%-0.79 -14.1 22
1943-04-25 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-269.2 1693 1752 30.84% 22.10% 47.05%-0.79 +11.7 21
1943-04-25 @ Rapid Wien L 2-369.2 1752 1693 47.05% 22.10% 30.84%+0.79 -11.7 23
1943-04-26 FC Wien W 5-370.3 1701 1749 32.29% 22.13% 45.58%-0.69 +17.6 24
1943-04-26 @ Austria Wien L 3-570.3 1749 1701 45.58% 22.13% 32.29%+0.69 -17.6 18
1943-04-26 First Vienna D 2-273.5 1607 1845 13.45% 21.05% 65.50%-2.40 +2.6 14
1943-04-26 @ Wacker Wien D 2-273.5 1845 1607 65.50% 21.05% 13.45%+2.40 -2.6 30
1943-04-26 Rapid Wien D 0-067.8 1772 1705 48.07% 22.08% 29.85%+0.35 -1.2 26
1943-04-26 @ Wiener AC D 0-067.8 1705 1772 29.85% 22.08% 48.07%-0.35 +1.2 22
1943-04-26 Admira Wien W 2-159.2 1741 1646 51.58% 21.99% 26.43%+0.60 +7.8 25
1943-04-26 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-259.2 1646 1741 26.43% 21.99% 51.58%-0.60 -7.8 14
1943-05-02 Reichsbahn SG L 2-350.3 1379 1676 9.98% 20.45% 69.57%-2.94 -3.1 2
1943-05-02 @ Sturm Graz W 3-250.3 1676 1379 69.57% 20.45% 9.98%+2.94 +3.1 16
1943-05-09 Admira Wien L 0-261.6 1731 1638 51.36% 22.00% 26.64%+0.58 -26.7 18
1943-05-09 @ FC Wien W 2-061.6 1638 1731 26.64% 22.00% 51.36%-0.58 +26.7 16
1943-05-09 Sturm Graz W 8-138.9 1610 1376 65.20% 21.09% 13.71%+1.85 +23.1 16
1943-05-09 @ Wacker Wien L 1-838.9 1376 1610 13.71% 21.09% 65.20%-1.85 -23.1 2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1942-10-18 13.88% Reichsbahn SG 1596 5 @ Rapid Wien 1828 2
2 1942-08-30 17.32% Floridsdorfer 1641 4 @ Rapid Wien 1828 2
3 1943-03-28 18.84% Wacker Wien 1612 1 @ Austria Wien 1781 0
4 1942-12-06 21.80% Austria Wien 1679 6 @ Rapid Wien 1817 2
5 1943-04-18 23.36% Wiener Sport-Club 1730 4 @ First Vienna 1853 2
6 1943-04-04 23.54% Reichsbahn SG 1644 3 @ Austria Wien 1765 0
7 1942-11-08 24.93% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1729 4 Rapid Wien 1837 1
8 1943-04-11 26.46% FC Wien 1678 5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1773 1
9 1942-10-18 26.62% Wiener AC 1735 8 @ First Vienna 1828 2
10 1943-05-09 26.64% Admira Wien 1638 2 @ FC Wien 1731 0
11 1943-02-14 26.92% @ Floridsdorfer 1687 7 Rapid Wien 1778 1
12 1942-10-25 28.09% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1696 3 First Vienna 1777 2
13 1943-04-25 30.29% Wacker Wien 1595 2 @ Admira Wien 1658 1
14 1943-04-25 30.84% @ Rapid Wien 1693 3 Wiener Sport-Club 1752 2
15 1943-03-28 31.02% Reichsbahn SG 1623 3 @ Admira Wien 1680 1
16 1943-04-25 31.17% @ FC Wien 1727 3 Floridsdorfer 1784 1
17 1943-02-21 31.23% FC Wien 1661 6 @ Rapid Wien 1717 4
18 1943-03-07 31.81% Wiener AC 1731 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1783 0
19 1943-04-26 32.29% @ Austria Wien 1701 5 FC Wien 1749 3
20 1942-08-30 33.87% Wiener AC 1680 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1716 1
21 1943-03-07 34.29% Admira Wien 1657 2 @ Rapid Wien 1690 0
22 1943-03-07 34.44% Austria Wien 1761 3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1793 1
23 1942-10-03 34.46% @ Wiener AC 1680 6 Austria Wien 1712 1
24 1942-08-30 35.91% @ Admira Wien 1661 3 FC Wien 1682 2
25 1943-04-11 36.34% Rapid Wien 1667 3 @ Reichsbahn SG 1685 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1942-08-23 69.10 Rapid Wien 10 1759 40.24% @ Austria Wien 1 1749 37.59% 22.17%
2 1943-02-14 60.92 @ Floridsdorfer 7 1687 26.92% Rapid Wien 1 1778 51.07% 22.01%
3 1942-10-18 50.71 Wiener AC 8 1735 26.62% @ First Vienna 2 1828 51.38% 22.00%
4 1942-08-23 45.07 First Vienna 7 1752 42.40% @ FC Wien 1 1727 35.44% 22.16%
5 1942-10-03 44.72 @ Wiener AC 6 1680 34.46% Austria Wien 1 1712 43.38% 22.16%
6 1943-04-11 42.38 FC Wien 5 1678 26.46% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1773 51.55% 21.99%
7 1943-04-04 41.04 Reichsbahn SG 3 1644 23.54% @ Austria Wien 0 1765 54.58% 21.88%
8 1942-08-16 39.99 Austria Wien 6 1709 40.12% @ Admira Wien 1 1701 37.70% 22.17%
9 1942-12-06 39.11 Austria Wien 6 1679 21.80% @ Rapid Wien 2 1817 56.41% 21.79%
10 1942-11-08 38.32 First Vienna 9 1776 47.00% @ Austria Wien 2 1717 30.90% 22.11%
11 1942-08-16 37.54 @ Rapid Wien 4 1721 42.13% Wacker Wien 0 1698 35.70% 22.17%
12 1942-10-18 35.54 Reichsbahn SG 5 1596 13.88% @ Rapid Wien 2 1828 65.01% 21.11%
13 1943-03-07 35.28 Wiener AC 3 1731 31.81% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1783 46.07% 22.12%
14 1942-10-18 35.19 @ Admira Wien 8 1665 56.18% Sturm Graz 1 1529 22.02% 21.80%
15 1942-08-16 34.00 Wiener AC 5 1646 38.12% @ Sturm Graz 1 1652 39.71% 22.18%
16 1942-11-08 33.75 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1729 24.93% Rapid Wien 1 1837 53.13% 21.94%
17 1942-08-23 32.64 @ Wiener Sport-Club 8 1684 47.94% Sturm Graz 2 1618 29.98% 22.09%
18 1942-11-01 32.33 @ Rapid Wien 5 1805 40.60% Wiener AC 1 1793 37.23% 22.17%
19 1943-02-28 28.56 @ Floridsdorfer 11 1754 70.95% Sturm Graz 0 1433 8.86% 20.19%
20 1943-04-11 26.88 Floridsdorfer 4 1748 54.40% @ Wacker Wien 0 1629 23.72% 21.89%
21 1943-05-09 26.72 Admira Wien 2 1638 26.64% @ FC Wien 0 1731 51.36% 22.00%
22 1942-08-30 24.44 Floridsdorfer 4 1641 17.32% @ Rapid Wien 2 1828 61.20% 21.48%
23 1943-03-07 23.17 Admira Wien 2 1657 34.29% @ Rapid Wien 0 1690 43.55% 22.15%
24 1943-05-09 23.09 @ Wacker Wien 8 1610 65.20% Sturm Graz 1 1376 13.71% 21.09%
25 1942-09-27 22.10 FC Wien 6 1652 49.53% @ Sturm Graz 2 1573 28.42% 22.05%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1942-10-18 81.6 @ FC Wien 5 1680 36.61% Wiener Sport-Club 5 1696 41.22% 22.17%
2 1942-10-04 81.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1686 41.07% Wacker Wien 5 1670 36.75% 22.17%
3 1942-10-04 77.2 @ Rapid Wien 3 1828 40.56% First Vienna 3 1817 37.26% 22.17%
4 1943-04-11 77.2 @ Wiener AC 3 1775 28.34% First Vienna 3 1854 49.61% 22.05%
5 1943-03-28 77.0 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1748 35.34% Wiener Sport-Club 3 1773 42.50% 22.16%
6 1942-08-23 75.5 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1641 36.10% Admira Wien 3 1661 41.73% 22.17%
7 1943-04-26 73.5 @ Wacker Wien 2 1607 13.45% First Vienna 2 1845 65.50% 21.05%
8 1942-12-13 73.4 @ First Vienna 2 1833 62.59% Reichsbahn SG 2 1631 16.06% 21.36%
9 1942-11-15 72.5 @ Austria Wien 2 1679 38.51% Admira Wien 2 1682 39.31% 22.18%
10 1943-02-21 72.4 FC Wien 6 1661 31.23% @ Rapid Wien 4 1717 46.66% 22.11%
11 1942-08-16 72.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1684 43.46% Reichsbahn SG 2 1652 34.39% 22.15%
12 1942-08-30 72.1 @ Reichsbahn SG 2 1641 33.48% Austria Wien 2 1680 44.37% 22.14%
13 1942-10-25 72.1 @ Wacker Wien 2 1640 33.26% FC Wien 2 1680 44.60% 22.14%
14 1942-08-30 71.7 Floridsdorfer 4 1641 17.32% @ Rapid Wien 2 1828 61.20% 21.48%
15 1942-12-06 70.9 @ Reichsbahn SG 2 1631 42.32% Wacker Wien 2 1607 35.51% 22.16%
16 1942-10-18 70.7 Reichsbahn SG 5 1596 13.88% @ Rapid Wien 2 1828 65.01% 21.11%
17 1943-04-18 70.3 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1730 23.36% @ First Vienna 2 1853 54.77% 21.87%
18 1943-04-26 70.3 @ Austria Wien 5 1701 32.29% FC Wien 3 1749 45.58% 22.13%
19 1942-10-25 70.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1696 28.09% First Vienna 2 1777 49.87% 22.04%
20 1943-02-28 69.9 @ Wacker Wien 1 1610 17.32% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1796 61.20% 21.48%
21 1943-04-18 69.9 @ Admira Wien 1 1656 23.70% Wiener AC 1 1776 54.42% 21.89%
22 1943-02-21 69.5 @ Wiener AC 1 1756 57.54% Wacker Wien 1 1607 20.73% 21.73%
23 1942-09-13 69.4 @ Wacker Wien 1 1670 35.83% Wiener AC 1 1692 42.00% 22.17%
24 1943-04-25 69.2 @ Rapid Wien 3 1693 30.84% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1752 47.05% 22.10%
25 1943-02-28 68.8 @ FC Wien 1 1678 46.12% Reichsbahn SG 1 1626 31.76% 22.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-05-09 38.9 @ Wacker Wien 8 1610 65.20% Sturm Graz 1 1376 13.71% 21.09%
2 1943-04-18 41.3 @ Rapid Wien 7 1677 68.64% Sturm Graz 1 1394 10.75% 20.61%
3 1943-02-21 41.6 Austria Wien 6 1718 67.34% @ Sturm Graz 0 1455 11.85% 20.81%
4 1943-02-28 43.2 @ Floridsdorfer 11 1754 70.95% Sturm Graz 0 1433 8.86% 20.19%
5 1942-10-25 44.2 Rapid Wien 4 1793 69.61% @ Sturm Graz 0 1494 9.94% 20.45%
6 1943-03-07 44.8 @ FC Wien 4 1677 67.94% Sturm Graz 1 1405 11.34% 20.72%
7 1942-10-31 45.5 @ Reichsbahn SG 3 1632 57.67% Sturm Graz 0 1482 20.61% 21.72%
8 1942-11-15 46.8 @ Wiener AC 2 1768 69.95% Sturm Graz 0 1464 9.67% 20.38%
9 1943-03-28 48.3 @ First Vienna 8 1850 77.08% Sturm Graz 3 1396 4.49% 18.44%
10 1942-10-18 48.4 @ Admira Wien 8 1665 56.18% Sturm Graz 1 1529 22.02% 21.80%
11 1942-10-11 49.0 First Vienna 5 1817 68.19% @ Sturm Graz 1 1541 11.13% 20.68%
12 1943-04-11 49.8 Floridsdorfer 4 1748 54.40% @ Wacker Wien 0 1629 23.72% 21.89%
13 1943-05-02 50.3 Reichsbahn SG 3 1676 69.57% @ Sturm Graz 2 1379 9.98% 20.45%
14 1942-09-13 51.4 Rapid Wien 3 1803 55.79% @ FC Wien 0 1671 22.39% 21.82%
15 1942-12-06 51.5 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1775 70.74% @ Sturm Graz 1 1458 9.03% 20.23%
16 1942-09-13 51.6 @ First Vienna 3 1797 55.05% Admira Wien 0 1671 23.09% 21.86%
17 1942-11-15 53.1 Rapid Wien 4 1803 60.90% @ Wacker Wien 1 1620 17.60% 21.50%
18 1942-08-16 53.7 @ Rapid Wien 4 1721 42.13% Wacker Wien 0 1698 35.70% 22.17%
19 1942-08-23 55.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 8 1684 47.94% Sturm Graz 2 1618 29.98% 22.09%
20 1942-10-11 55.3 Admira Wien 2 1646 43.15% @ Reichsbahn SG 0 1616 34.70% 22.16%
21 1942-09-27 55.9 FC Wien 6 1652 49.53% @ Sturm Graz 2 1573 28.42% 22.05%
22 1942-08-23 56.0 First Vienna 7 1752 42.40% @ FC Wien 1 1727 35.44% 22.16%
23 1942-09-13 56.2 @ Austria Wien 3 1680 51.32% Sturm Graz 1 1587 26.68% 22.00%
24 1942-11-08 56.2 First Vienna 9 1776 47.00% @ Austria Wien 2 1717 30.90% 22.11%
25 1942-08-23 56.6 Rapid Wien 10 1759 40.24% @ Austria Wien 1 1749 37.59% 22.17%