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1941-42 Gauliga Season

72 games

Final

Champion

First Vienna

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

First Vienna

5.76 points above expected

25 points · 19.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Post SV Wien

6.79 points below expected

1 points · 7.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 First Vienna 16 11 3 2 25 51 26 +25 19.24 +5.76
2 FC Wien 16 8 5 3 21 45 23 +22 16.77 +4.23
3 Rapid Wien 16 8 3 5 19 39 30 +9 19.68 -0.68
4 Austria Wien 16 5 8 3 18 34 25 +9 18.96 -0.96
5 Wacker Wien 16 7 2 7 16 42 39 +3 18.11 -2.11
6 Floridsdorfer 16 6 4 6 16 39 50 -11 11.68 +4.32
7 Wiener Sport-Club 16 6 3 7 15 43 38 +5 15.24 -0.24
8 Admira Wien 16 5 3 8 13 43 40 +3 16.54 -3.54
9 Post SV Wien 16 0 1 15 1 10 75 -65 7.79 -6.79

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 25 19.24 +5.76
2 Floridsdorfer 16 11.68 +4.32
3 FC Wien 21 16.77 +4.23
4 Wiener Sport-Club 15 15.24 -0.24
5 Rapid Wien 19 19.68 -0.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Post SV Wien 1 7.79 -6.79
2 Admira Wien 13 16.54 -3.54
3 Wacker Wien 16 18.11 -2.11
4 Austria Wien 18 18.96 -0.96
5 Rapid Wien 19 19.68 -0.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 4 Mar 22 – Apr 19 1 in 442
2 First Vienna 4 Jan 11 – Mar 22 1 in 28
3 FC Wien 3 Nov 30 – Feb 15 1 in 16
4 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Jan 4 – Mar 8 1 in 11
5 Wacker Wien 2 Sep 7 – Sep 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Post SV Wien 14 Aug 31 – Apr 6 1 in 529
2 Wacker Wien 3 Apr 4 – Apr 19 1 in 27
3 Rapid Wien 2 Nov 2 – Nov 16 1 in 16
4 Austria Wien 1 Nov 30 – Nov 30 1 in 6
5 Floridsdorfer 3 Dec 7 – Jan 11 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 5 Mar 15 – Apr 19 1 in 56
2 FC Wien 6 Aug 31 – Nov 16 1 in 31
3 First Vienna 8 Jan 11 – Apr 19 1 in 15
4 Austria Wien 7 Aug 31 – Nov 23 1 in 9
5 Wacker Wien 6 Sep 7 – Nov 16 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Austria Wien 7 Feb 22 – Apr 19 1 in 100
2 Admira Wien 5 Mar 8 – Apr 12 1 in 17
3 Post SV Wien 16 Aug 31 – Apr 19 1 in 11
4 Wacker Wien 3 Apr 4 – Apr 19 1 in 5
5 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Mar 15 – Apr 12 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
First Vienna 1794 25 +45 9 6.5 +2.5
FC Wien 1750 21 +10 6 5.9 +0.1
Rapid Wien 1740 19 +6 6 5.2 +0.8
Austria Wien 1710 18 -13 4 5.5 -1.5
Floridsdorfer 1583 16 +73 9 3.6 +5.4
Wacker Wien 1683 16 -44 2 5.7 -3.7
Wiener Sport-Club 1645 15 -20 4 4.9 -0.9
Admira Wien 1690 13 -31 2 5.4 -3.4
Post SV Wien 1339 1 -44 1 1.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FW FV FLO PSW RW WW WS
Admira Wien —
2-0-0
2.09
0-1-1
3.08
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
3.67
2-0-0
4.25
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.77
0-1-1
2.88
Austria Wien
0-0-2
3.45
 —
1-1-0
2.94
0-2-0
2.60
0-2-0
4.19
1-1-0
4.71
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.61
1-1-0
3.40
FC Wien
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
2.59
 —
1-0-1
2.48
0-1-1
3.72
2-0-0
3.94
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
2.43
2-0-0
3.18
First Vienna
2-0-0
3.52
0-2-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.05
 —
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
4.67
2-0-0
2.38
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.37
Floridsdorfer
1-0-1
1.87
0-2-0
1.37
1-1-0
1.82
1-0-1
1.54
 —
2-0-0
4.02
0-0-2
1.45
1-1-0
1.52
0-0-2
2.06
Post SV Wien
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-1
0.88
0-0-2
1.61
0-0-2
0.92
0-0-2
1.53
 —
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
1.10
0-0-2
1.51
Rapid Wien
1-1-0
3.43
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
3.26
0-0-2
3.15
2-0-0
4.10
2-0-0
4.49
 —
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
3.66
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.92
0-1-1
3.10
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
4.03
2-0-0
4.48
1-0-1
2.58
 —
2-0-0
3.31
Wiener Sport-Club
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
2.13
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
2.16
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.22
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +5.0
Allowed 0.84 -3.7
Differential 0.90 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%1.39%2.08%1.39%4.86%4.86%18.75%
11.39%8.33%4.17%1.39%2.78%1.39%19.44%
22.08%4.17%4.17%4.86%2.78%3.47%21.53%
31.39%1.39%4.86%1.39%2.08%—11.11%
44.86%2.78%2.78%2.08%4.17%0.69%17.36%
5+4.86%1.39%3.47%—0.69%1.39%11.81%
Total18.75%19.44%21.53%11.11%17.36%11.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 2.40 +0.00
SD 2.02 2.02 3.18
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%———6.25%—12.50%
1—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
2——6.25%12.50%—6.25%25.00%
3——12.50%—6.25%—18.75%
4—————6.25%6.25%
5+12.50%—6.25%———18.75%
Total18.75%6.25%31.25%12.50%18.75%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 2.50 +0.19
SD 2.12 1.79 3.15
CV 0.79 0.72 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%————6.25%18.75%
1—31.25%————31.25%
2——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
3——6.25%—6.25%—12.50%
46.25%6.25%————12.50%
5+6.25%6.25%————12.50%
Total25.00%43.75%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.56 +0.56
SD 1.86 1.82 2.87
CV 0.87 1.17 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%———6.25%—12.50%
1—6.25%6.25%6.25%——18.75%
2—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
418.75%6.25%6.25%—6.25%—37.50%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total37.50%18.75%18.75%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.81 1.44 +1.38
SD 2.04 1.46 2.90
CV 0.73 1.02 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%——6.25%—12.50%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
2—12.50%————12.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4—6.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%
5+12.50%6.25%6.25%—6.25%—31.25%
Total18.75%43.75%12.50%6.25%18.75%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.19 1.62 +1.56
SD 2.26 1.41 2.66
CV 0.71 0.87 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—————6.25%
16.25%6.25%————12.50%
26.25%6.25%—6.25%6.25%18.75%43.75%
3—6.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%
4——6.25%—6.25%—12.50%
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total18.75%18.75%6.25%12.50%18.75%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 3.12 -0.69
SD 1.41 2.78 2.73
CV 0.58 0.89 —
Max 6 10 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—12.50%—18.75%31.25%68.75%
1———6.25%6.25%6.25%18.75%
2—————6.25%6.25%
3———————
4———————
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total6.25%—12.50%6.25%25.00%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 4.69 -4.06
SD 1.31 2.30 2.46
CV 2.10 0.49 —
Max 5 9 +0
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
1—6.25%——6.25%—12.50%
26.25%12.50%12.50%—6.25%—37.50%
3—6.25%————6.25%
46.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total12.50%31.25%31.25%6.25%18.75%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.88 +0.56
SD 2.42 1.31 2.87
CV 0.99 0.70 —
Max 10 4 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————6.25%6.25%
1——12.50%—6.25%—18.75%
26.25%——6.25%12.50%—25.00%
36.25%—12.50%———18.75%
412.50%———12.50%—25.00%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total25.00%—31.25%6.25%31.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.62 2.44 +0.19
SD 1.54 1.82 2.81
CV 0.59 0.75 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———12.50%——12.50%
1—6.25%12.50%——6.25%25.00%
2——6.25%12.50%——18.75%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4—6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—25.00%
5+6.25%—6.25%———12.50%
Total6.25%12.50%37.50%31.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 2.38 +0.31
SD 2.30 1.20 3.07
CV 0.86 0.51 —
Max 9 5 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
First Vienna 1794 25 19.24 +5.76 97.6% 8 14 17 19 21 24 30
FC Wien 1750 21 16.77 +4.23 93.8% 8 11 15 17 19 22 26
Rapid Wien 1740 19 19.68 -0.68 46.5% 11 14 17 20 22 25 28
Austria Wien 1710 18 18.96 -0.96 44.2% 8 14 17 19 21 24 29
Admira Wien 1690 13 16.54 -3.54 18.0% 5 11 14 16 19 22 27
Wacker Wien 1683 16 18.11 -2.11 30.6% 8 13 16 18 20 24 28
Wiener Sport-Club 1645 15 15.24 -0.24 52.4% 6 10 13 15 17 20 28
Floridsdorfer 1583 16 11.68 +4.32 92.8% 1 7 9 12 14 17 23
Post SV Wien 1339 1 7.79 -6.79 1.3% 1 3 6 8 10 13 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.78%
No Edge
40.28%22.22%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.65 Elo pts.
100 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.1
Open
12469
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
First Vienna, 2nd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.25/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.59 * Some Luck: 2.59 to 3.88 * Lucky: 3.88 to 5.18 * Wild Swing: 5.18 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.19 * Close: 1.19 to 1.78 * Off: 1.78 to 2.37 * Way Off: 2.37 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.86 points
Some Luck
03.248
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Close
01.483
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
97.60%
First Vienna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.30%
Post SV Wien
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.66
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.49
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.3 * Above Noise: 0.3 to 0.39 * Well Above Noise: 0.39 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.134
Well Within Noise
00.1970.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
First Vienna24.30%20.00%17.00%13.70%10.20%8.80%4.70%1.30%—
FC Wien7.90%12.60%13.50%16.10%15.90%15.10%10.50%7.10%1.30%
Rapid Wien26.40%21.60%16.40%12.50%11.00%6.10%4.70%1.30%—
Austria Wien20.60%16.20%16.60%16.40%12.30%9.70%6.10%1.90%0.20%
Wacker Wien10.90%14.70%18.40%13.90%16.80%11.80%9.80%3.40%0.30%
Floridsdorfer0.40%0.40%1.40%2.50%3.50%9.80%18.70%45.70%17.60%
Wiener Sport-Club3.00%4.80%7.20%10.60%16.10%19.30%22.20%14.20%2.60%
Admira Wien6.50%9.70%9.30%14.30%14.00%18.20%18.50%8.10%1.40%
Post SV Wien——0.20%—0.20%1.20%4.80%17.00%76.60%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
First Vienna 100% —
Rapid Wien 100% —
Austria Wien 99.80% 0.20%
Wacker Wien 99.70% 0.30%
FC Wien 98.70% 1.30%
Admira Wien 98.60% 1.40%
Wiener Sport-Club 97.40% 2.60%
Floridsdorfer 82.40% 17.60%
Post SV Wien 23.40% 76.60%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1941-08-31 FC Wien D 0-065.1 1666 1590 51.27% 23.34% 25.39%+0.87 -1.6 1
1941-08-31 @ Admira Wien D 0-065.1 1590 1666 25.39% 23.34% 51.27%-0.87 +1.6 1
1941-08-31 Wacker Wien W 6-053.9 1713 1715 41.18% 23.56% 35.26%+0.09 +49.2 2
1941-08-31 @ Austria Wien L 0-653.9 1715 1713 35.26% 23.56% 41.18%-0.09 -49.2 0
1941-08-31 Rapid Wien L 1-353.8 1543 1779 14.81% 22.26% 62.93%-2.27 -7.4 0
1941-08-31 @ Post SV Wien W 3-153.8 1779 1543 62.93% 22.26% 14.81%+2.27 +7.4 2
1941-08-31 Floridsdorfer W 4-364.2 1650 1562 52.61% 23.27% 24.11%+0.98 +6.0 2
1941-08-31 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 3-464.2 1562 1650 24.11% 23.27% 52.61%-0.98 -6.0 0
1941-09-06 Post SV Wien W 4-047.6 1591 1536 48.66% 23.43% 27.91%+0.65 +27.9 3
1941-09-06 @ FC Wien L 0-447.6 1536 1591 27.91% 23.43% 48.66%-0.65 -27.9 0
1941-09-06 First Vienna W 1-064.1 1556 1715 21.33% 23.00% 55.67%-1.50 +13.8 2
1941-09-06 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-164.1 1715 1556 55.67% 23.00% 21.33%+1.50 -13.8 0
1941-09-07 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-157.9 1787 1656 57.20% 22.99% 19.81%+1.41 +5.5 4
1941-09-07 @ Rapid Wien L 1-257.9 1656 1787 19.81% 22.99% 57.20%-1.41 -5.5 2
1941-09-07 Admira Wien W 6-261.1 1665 1665 41.44% 23.56% 35.01%+0.10 +23.6 2
1941-09-07 @ Wacker Wien L 2-661.1 1665 1665 35.01% 23.56% 41.44%-0.10 -23.6 1
1941-09-21 Rapid Wien L 2-458.5 1570 1792 15.80% 22.41% 61.79%-2.14 -7.0 2
1941-09-21 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-258.5 1792 1570 61.79% 22.41% 15.80%+2.14 +7.0 6
1941-09-21 Wacker Wien L 0-355.5 1650 1689 35.89% 23.55% 40.56%-0.29 -26.1 2
1941-09-21 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-055.5 1689 1650 40.56% 23.55% 35.89%+0.29 +26.1 4
1941-10-05 Floridsdorfer D 0-066.4 1763 1563 63.49% 22.33% 14.17%+2.11 -3.2 3
1941-10-05 @ Austria Wien D 0-066.4 1563 1763 14.17% 22.33% 63.49%-2.11 +3.3 3
1941-10-05 Wacker Wien D 4-479.3 1619 1715 28.35% 23.38% 48.27%-0.87 +0.6 4
1941-10-05 @ FC Wien D 4-479.3 1715 1619 48.27% 23.38% 28.35%+0.87 -0.6 5
1941-10-05 Rapid Wien W 4-164.1 1701 1799 28.12% 23.37% 48.50%-0.88 +28.0 2
1941-10-05 @ First Vienna L 1-464.1 1799 1701 48.50% 23.37% 28.12%+0.88 -28.0 6
1941-10-05 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-452.3 1508 1624 25.92% 23.28% 50.80%-1.07 -17.0 0
1941-10-05 @ Post SV Wien W 4-152.3 1624 1508 50.80% 23.28% 25.92%+1.07 +17.0 4
1941-10-11 First Vienna D 4-479.6 1641 1729 29.32% 23.42% 47.27%-0.79 +0.5 5
1941-10-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 4-479.6 1729 1641 47.27% 23.42% 29.32%+0.79 -0.5 3
1941-10-12 Wacker Wien L 0-445.7 1491 1714 15.74% 22.40% 61.86%-2.15 -17.1 0
1941-10-12 @ Post SV Wien W 4-045.7 1714 1491 61.86% 22.40% 15.74%+2.15 +17.1 7
1941-10-12 Austria Wien D 2-273.1 1771 1759 42.97% 23.54% 33.48%+0.22 -0.4 7
1941-10-12 @ Rapid Wien D 2-273.1 1759 1771 33.48% 23.54% 42.97%-0.22 +0.4 4
1941-10-18 Post SV Wien W 6-043.2 1729 1474 67.54% 21.66% 10.80%+2.66 +17.7 5
1941-10-18 @ First Vienna L 0-643.2 1474 1729 10.80% 21.66% 67.54%-2.66 -17.7 0
1941-10-19 Rapid Wien L 0-451.2 1641 1771 24.43% 23.20% 52.37%-1.21 -25.0 1
1941-10-19 @ Admira Wien W 4-051.2 1771 1641 52.37% 23.20% 24.43%+1.21 +25.0 9
1941-10-19 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-261.9 1760 1642 55.87% 23.09% 21.04%+1.28 +5.5 6
1941-10-19 @ Austria Wien L 2-361.9 1642 1760 21.04% 23.09% 55.87%-1.28 -5.5 5
1941-10-19 Floridsdorfer D 3-373.5 1620 1566 48.50% 23.43% 28.07%+0.64 -0.7 5
1941-10-19 @ FC Wien D 3-373.5 1566 1620 28.07% 23.43% 48.50%-0.64 +0.7 4
1941-11-02 Post SV Wien W 6-249.7 1616 1456 60.01% 22.74% 17.25%+1.70 +13.1 3
1941-11-02 @ Admira Wien L 2-649.7 1456 1616 17.25% 22.74% 60.01%-1.70 -13.1 0
1941-11-02 Austria Wien D 1-169.5 1747 1765 38.71% 23.56% 37.73%-0.09 -0.1 6
1941-11-02 @ First Vienna D 1-169.5 1765 1747 37.73% 23.56% 38.71%+0.09 +0.0 7
1941-11-02 Wacker Wien D 4-479.0 1566 1732 20.78% 22.95% 56.27%-1.56 +1.1 5
1941-11-02 @ Floridsdorfer D 4-479.0 1732 1566 56.27% 22.95% 20.78%+1.56 -1.1 8
1941-11-02 FC Wien L 0-462.2 1796 1619 61.54% 22.58% 15.88%+1.87 -54.2 9
1941-11-02 @ Rapid Wien W 4-062.2 1619 1796 15.88% 22.58% 61.54%-1.87 +54.2 7
1941-11-08 Admira Wien L 2-362.8 1568 1629 32.73% 23.50% 43.76%-0.52 -7.9 5
1941-11-08 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-262.8 1629 1568 43.76% 23.50% 32.73%+0.52 +7.9 5
1941-11-16 Admira Wien W 5-468.5 1746 1637 54.99% 23.14% 21.87%+1.20 +5.5 8
1941-11-16 @ First Vienna L 4-568.5 1637 1746 21.87% 23.14% 54.99%-1.20 -5.5 5
1941-11-16 Austria Wien L 1-547.5 1443 1765 9.68% 21.13% 69.19%-3.14 -9.0 0
1941-11-16 @ Post SV Wien W 5-147.5 1765 1443 69.19% 21.13% 9.68%+3.14 +9.0 9
1941-11-16 Rapid Wien W 2-058.3 1730 1742 39.78% 23.56% 36.65%-0.01 +18.2 10
1941-11-16 @ Wacker Wien L 0-258.3 1742 1730 36.65% 23.56% 39.78%+0.01 -18.2 9
1941-11-16 FC Wien L 1-261.9 1636 1673 36.12% 23.55% 40.33%-0.27 -9.0 5
1941-11-16 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-161.9 1673 1636 40.33% 23.55% 36.12%+0.27 +9.0 9
1941-11-23 FC Wien W 4-051.3 1774 1682 53.05% 23.25% 23.70%+1.02 +24.4 11
1941-11-23 @ Austria Wien L 0-451.3 1682 1774 23.70% 23.25% 53.05%-1.02 -24.4 9
1941-11-23 Post SV Wien W 6-560.5 1560 1434 56.68% 23.03% 20.30%+1.36 +5.1 7
1941-11-23 @ Floridsdorfer L 5-660.5 1434 1560 20.30% 23.03% 56.68%-1.36 -5.1 0
1941-11-23 First Vienna L 2-368.5 1749 1752 40.87% 23.56% 35.56%+0.06 -9.4 10
1941-11-23 @ Wacker Wien W 3-268.5 1752 1749 35.56% 23.56% 40.87%-0.06 +9.4 10
1941-11-23 Admira Wien W 3-264.9 1627 1632 40.75% 23.56% 35.69%+0.05 +8.5 7
1941-11-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-364.9 1632 1627 35.69% 23.56% 40.75%-0.05 -8.5 5
1941-11-30 Admira Wien L 0-761.7 1799 1623 61.44% 22.59% 15.97%+1.86 -91.8 11
1941-11-30 @ Austria Wien W 7-061.7 1623 1799 15.97% 22.59% 61.44%-1.86 +91.8 7
1941-11-30 FC Wien L 0-460.2 1761 1658 54.35% 23.18% 22.47%+1.14 -48.2 10
1941-11-30 @ First Vienna W 4-060.2 1658 1761 22.47% 23.18% 54.35%-1.14 +48.2 11
1941-12-07 Floridsdorfer W 10-251.0 1723 1565 59.90% 22.75% 17.34%+1.69 +24.1 11
1941-12-07 @ Rapid Wien L 2-1051.0 1565 1723 17.34% 22.75% 59.90%-1.69 -24.1 7
1941-12-07 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-262.2 1739 1636 54.33% 23.18% 22.49%+1.14 +5.8 12
1941-12-07 @ Wacker Wien L 2-362.2 1636 1739 22.49% 23.18% 54.33%-1.14 -5.8 7
1941-12-07 Admira Wien L 0-641.9 1429 1715 11.59% 21.64% 66.77%-2.77 -18.8 0
1941-12-07 @ Post SV Wien W 6-041.9 1715 1429 66.77% 21.64% 11.59%+2.77 +18.8 9
1942-01-04 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-558.1 1541 1630 29.15% 23.41% 47.44%-0.80 -16.2 7
1942-01-04 @ Floridsdorfer W 5-258.1 1630 1541 47.44% 23.41% 29.15%+0.80 +16.2 9
1942-01-04 Post SV Wien W 2-044.4 1747 1410 72.40% 20.45% 7.15%+3.48 +4.2 13
1942-01-04 @ Rapid Wien L 0-244.4 1410 1747 7.15% 20.45% 72.40%-3.48 -4.2 0
1942-01-11 Floridsdorfer W 7-252.0 1713 1524 62.57% 22.46% 14.97%+1.99 +14.0 12
1942-01-11 @ First Vienna L 2-752.0 1524 1713 14.97% 22.46% 62.57%-1.99 -14.0 7
1942-01-11 Rapid Wien W 4-269.2 1646 1752 27.20% 23.34% 49.46%-0.96 +18.0 11
1942-01-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-469.2 1752 1646 49.46% 23.34% 27.20%+0.96 -18.0 13
1942-01-18 FC Wien L 0-841.4 1406 1706 10.80% 21.45% 67.75%-2.92 -23.1 0
1942-01-18 @ Post SV Wien W 8-041.4 1706 1406 67.75% 21.45% 10.80%+2.92 +23.1 13
1942-02-15 Admira Wien W 4-160.1 1729 1734 40.70% 23.56% 35.74%+0.05 +21.9 15
1942-02-15 @ FC Wien L 1-460.1 1734 1729 35.74% 23.56% 40.70%-0.05 -21.9 9
1942-02-15 Austria Wien L 1-463.3 1745 1707 46.49% 23.49% 30.02%+0.48 -27.0 12
1942-02-15 @ Wacker Wien W 4-163.3 1707 1745 30.02% 23.49% 46.49%-0.48 +27.0 13
1942-02-22 Austria Wien W 3-267.5 1712 1734 38.19% 23.56% 38.24%-0.13 +9.0 11
1942-02-22 @ Admira Wien L 2-367.5 1734 1712 38.24% 23.56% 38.19%+0.13 -9.0 13
1942-02-22 First Vienna L 1-265.7 1751 1727 44.59% 23.52% 31.89%+0.34 -10.7 15
1942-02-22 @ FC Wien W 2-165.7 1727 1751 31.89% 23.52% 44.59%-0.34 +10.7 14
1942-03-08 Wacker Wien L 2-368.5 1721 1718 41.70% 23.56% 34.74%+0.12 -9.6 11
1942-03-08 @ Admira Wien W 3-268.5 1718 1721 34.74% 23.56% 41.70%-0.12 +9.6 14
1942-03-08 Post SV Wien W 9-039.2 1664 1383 69.24% 21.30% 9.47%+2.92 +22.9 13
1942-03-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-939.2 1383 1664 9.47% 21.30% 69.24%-2.92 -22.9 0
1942-03-15 Austria Wien D 1-167.4 1510 1725 16.43% 22.49% 61.08%-2.06 +2.6 8
1942-03-15 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-167.4 1725 1510 61.08% 22.49% 16.43%+2.06 -2.6 14
1942-03-15 First Vienna L 0-161.5 1734 1738 40.73% 23.56% 35.71%+0.05 -10.5 13
1942-03-15 @ Rapid Wien W 1-061.5 1738 1734 35.71% 23.56% 40.73%-0.05 +10.5 16
1942-03-15 FC Wien L 2-466.6 1728 1740 39.55% 23.56% 36.89%-0.03 -15.0 14
1942-03-15 @ Wacker Wien W 4-266.6 1740 1728 36.89% 23.56% 39.55%+0.03 +15.0 17
1942-03-15 Wiener Sport-Club D 2-272.5 1711 1687 44.62% 23.52% 31.85%+0.34 -0.5 12
1942-03-15 @ Admira Wien D 2-272.5 1687 1711 31.85% 23.52% 44.62%-0.34 +0.5 14
1942-03-22 Floridsdorfer L 1-268.3 1711 1513 63.29% 22.36% 14.35%+2.08 -14.7 12
1942-03-22 @ Admira Wien W 2-168.3 1513 1711 14.35% 22.36% 63.29%-2.08 +14.7 10
1942-03-22 Rapid Wien L 3-472.1 1722 1723 41.25% 23.56% 35.19%+0.09 -9.2 14
1942-03-22 @ Austria Wien W 4-372.1 1723 1722 35.19% 23.56% 41.25%-0.09 +9.3 15
1942-03-22 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-156.2 1748 1688 49.36% 23.41% 27.23%+0.71 +22.8 18
1942-03-22 @ First Vienna L 1-556.2 1688 1748 27.23% 23.41% 49.36%-0.71 -22.8 14
1942-03-22 Post SV Wien W 4-038.5 1713 1360 73.19% 20.20% 6.62%+3.64 +7.4 16
1942-03-22 @ Wacker Wien L 0-438.5 1360 1713 6.62% 20.20% 73.19%-3.64 -7.4 0
1942-03-29 Admira Wien D 1-169.2 1732 1696 46.26% 23.49% 30.25%+0.46 -0.9 16
1942-03-29 @ Rapid Wien D 1-169.2 1696 1732 30.25% 23.49% 46.26%-0.46 +0.9 13
1942-03-29 Austria Wien D 1-168.9 1665 1713 34.52% 23.53% 41.95%-0.39 +0.4 15
1942-03-29 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-168.9 1713 1665 41.95% 23.53% 34.52%+0.39 -0.4 15
1942-04-04 Floridsdorfer L 2-471.2 1720 1528 62.86% 22.42% 14.72%+2.03 -22.6 16
1942-04-04 @ Wacker Wien W 4-271.2 1528 1720 14.72% 22.42% 62.86%-2.03 +22.6 12
1942-04-05 First Vienna D 1-169.5 1713 1771 33.15% 23.51% 43.34%-0.49 +0.5 16
1942-04-05 @ Austria Wien D 1-169.5 1771 1713 43.34% 23.51% 33.15%+0.49 -0.5 19
1942-04-05 Rapid Wien D 2-273.0 1755 1731 44.60% 23.52% 31.87%+0.34 -0.5 18
1942-04-05 @ FC Wien D 2-273.0 1731 1755 31.87% 23.52% 44.60%-0.34 +0.5 17
1942-04-06 FC Wien W 3-167.3 1550 1755 17.24% 22.60% 60.16%-1.96 +24.2 14
1942-04-06 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-367.3 1755 1550 60.16% 22.60% 17.24%+1.96 -24.2 18
1942-04-06 First Vienna L 0-639.0 1353 1771 5.98% 19.58% 74.44%-4.10 -9.7 0
1942-04-06 @ Post SV Wien W 6-039.0 1771 1353 74.44% 19.58% 5.98%+4.10 +9.7 21
1942-04-12 First Vienna L 3-468.8 1697 1780 29.87% 23.43% 46.70%-0.74 -7.2 13
1942-04-12 @ Admira Wien W 4-368.8 1780 1697 46.70% 23.43% 29.87%+0.74 +7.2 23
1942-04-12 Post SV Wien D 0-060.8 1713 1343 74.05% 19.90% 6.05%+3.82 -4.7 17
1942-04-12 @ Austria Wien D 0-060.8 1343 1713 6.05% 19.90% 74.05%-3.82 +4.7 1
1942-04-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-053.1 1731 1665 49.93% 23.39% 26.68%+0.75 +20.6 20
1942-04-12 @ FC Wien L 0-353.1 1665 1731 26.68% 23.39% 49.93%-0.75 -20.6 15
1942-04-12 Wacker Wien W 2-161.2 1732 1697 46.01% 23.50% 30.49%+0.44 +7.9 19
1942-04-12 @ Rapid Wien L 1-261.2 1697 1732 30.49% 23.50% 46.01%-0.44 -7.9 16
1942-04-19 Austria Wien D 1-169.4 1751 1709 47.07% 23.47% 29.46%+0.53 -1.0 21
1942-04-19 @ FC Wien D 1-169.4 1709 1751 29.46% 23.47% 47.07%-0.53 +1.0 18
1942-04-19 Wacker Wien W 2-159.1 1788 1690 53.73% 23.22% 23.05%+1.08 +6.3 25
1942-04-19 @ First Vienna L 1-259.1 1690 1788 23.05% 23.22% 53.73%-1.08 -6.3 16
1942-04-19 Floridsdorfer L 0-239.4 1348 1575 15.47% 22.36% 62.17%-2.18 -8.9 1
1942-04-19 @ Post SV Wien W 2-039.4 1575 1348 62.17% 22.36% 15.47%+2.18 +8.9 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1942-03-22 14.35% Floridsdorfer 1513 2 @ Admira Wien 1711 1
2 1942-04-04 14.72% Floridsdorfer 1528 4 @ Wacker Wien 1720 2
3 1941-11-02 15.88% FC Wien 1619 4 @ Rapid Wien 1796 0
4 1941-11-30 15.97% Admira Wien 1623 7 @ Austria Wien 1799 0
5 1942-04-06 17.24% @ Floridsdorfer 1550 3 FC Wien 1755 1
6 1941-09-06 21.33% @ Floridsdorfer 1556 1 First Vienna 1715 0
7 1941-11-30 22.47% FC Wien 1658 4 @ First Vienna 1761 0
8 1942-01-11 27.20% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1646 4 Rapid Wien 1752 2
9 1941-10-05 28.12% @ First Vienna 1701 4 Rapid Wien 1799 1
10 1942-02-15 30.02% Austria Wien 1707 4 @ Wacker Wien 1745 1
11 1942-02-22 31.89% First Vienna 1727 2 @ FC Wien 1751 1
12 1942-03-08 34.74% Wacker Wien 1718 3 @ Admira Wien 1721 2
13 1942-03-22 35.19% Rapid Wien 1723 4 @ Austria Wien 1722 3
14 1941-11-23 35.56% First Vienna 1752 3 @ Wacker Wien 1749 2
15 1942-03-15 35.71% First Vienna 1738 1 @ Rapid Wien 1734 0
16 1942-03-15 36.89% FC Wien 1740 4 @ Wacker Wien 1728 2
17 1942-02-22 38.19% @ Admira Wien 1712 3 Austria Wien 1734 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-11-30 91.76 Admira Wien 7 1623 15.97% @ Austria Wien 0 1799 61.44% 22.59%
2 1941-11-02 54.24 FC Wien 4 1619 15.88% @ Rapid Wien 0 1796 61.54% 22.58%
3 1941-08-31 49.20 @ Austria Wien 6 1713 41.18% Wacker Wien 0 1715 35.26% 23.56%
4 1941-11-30 48.15 FC Wien 4 1658 22.47% @ First Vienna 0 1761 54.35% 23.18%
5 1941-10-05 28.03 @ First Vienna 4 1701 28.12% Rapid Wien 1 1799 48.50% 23.37%
6 1941-09-06 27.94 @ FC Wien 4 1591 48.66% Post SV Wien 0 1536 27.91% 23.43%
7 1942-02-15 27.05 Austria Wien 4 1707 30.02% @ Wacker Wien 1 1745 46.49% 23.49%
8 1941-09-21 26.08 Wacker Wien 3 1689 40.56% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1650 35.89% 23.55%
9 1941-10-19 25.02 Rapid Wien 4 1771 52.37% @ Admira Wien 0 1641 24.43% 23.20%
10 1941-11-23 24.43 @ Austria Wien 4 1774 53.05% FC Wien 0 1682 23.70% 23.25%
11 1942-04-06 24.18 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1550 17.24% FC Wien 1 1755 60.16% 22.60%
12 1941-12-07 24.12 @ Rapid Wien 10 1723 59.90% Floridsdorfer 2 1565 17.34% 22.75%
13 1941-09-07 23.63 @ Wacker Wien 6 1665 41.44% Admira Wien 2 1665 35.01% 23.56%
14 1942-01-18 23.12 FC Wien 8 1706 67.75% @ Post SV Wien 0 1406 10.80% 21.45%
15 1942-03-08 22.88 @ Wiener Sport-Club 9 1664 69.24% Post SV Wien 0 1383 9.47% 21.30%
16 1942-03-22 22.82 @ First Vienna 5 1748 49.36% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1688 27.23% 23.41%
17 1942-04-04 22.61 Floridsdorfer 4 1528 14.72% @ Wacker Wien 2 1720 62.86% 22.42%
18 1942-02-15 21.92 @ FC Wien 4 1729 40.70% Admira Wien 1 1734 35.74% 23.56%
19 1942-04-12 20.62 @ FC Wien 3 1731 49.93% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1665 26.68% 23.39%
20 1941-12-07 18.81 Admira Wien 6 1715 66.77% @ Post SV Wien 0 1429 11.59% 21.64%
21 1941-11-16 18.25 @ Wacker Wien 2 1730 39.78% Rapid Wien 0 1742 36.65% 23.56%
22 1942-01-11 18.04 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1646 27.20% Rapid Wien 2 1752 49.46% 23.34%
23 1941-10-18 17.67 @ First Vienna 6 1729 67.54% Post SV Wien 0 1474 10.80% 21.66%
24 1941-10-12 17.08 Wacker Wien 4 1714 61.86% @ Post SV Wien 0 1491 15.74% 22.40%
25 1941-10-05 16.96 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1624 50.80% @ Post SV Wien 1 1508 25.92% 23.28%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-10-11 79.6 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1641 29.32% First Vienna 4 1729 47.27% 23.42%
2 1941-10-05 79.3 @ FC Wien 4 1619 28.35% Wacker Wien 4 1715 48.27% 23.38%
3 1941-11-02 79.0 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1566 20.78% Wacker Wien 4 1732 56.27% 22.95%
4 1941-10-19 73.5 @ FC Wien 3 1620 48.50% Floridsdorfer 3 1566 28.07% 23.43%
5 1941-10-12 73.1 @ Rapid Wien 2 1771 42.97% Austria Wien 2 1759 33.48% 23.54%
6 1942-04-05 73.0 @ FC Wien 2 1755 44.60% Rapid Wien 2 1731 31.87% 23.52%
7 1942-03-15 72.5 @ Admira Wien 2 1711 44.62% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1687 31.85% 23.52%
8 1942-03-22 72.1 Rapid Wien 4 1723 35.19% @ Austria Wien 3 1722 41.25% 23.56%
9 1942-04-04 71.2 Floridsdorfer 4 1528 14.72% @ Wacker Wien 2 1720 62.86% 22.42%
10 1941-11-02 69.5 @ First Vienna 1 1747 38.71% Austria Wien 1 1765 37.73% 23.56%
11 1942-04-05 69.5 @ Austria Wien 1 1713 33.15% First Vienna 1 1771 43.34% 23.51%
12 1942-04-19 69.4 @ FC Wien 1 1751 47.07% Austria Wien 1 1709 29.46% 23.47%
13 1942-01-11 69.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1646 27.20% Rapid Wien 2 1752 49.46% 23.34%
14 1942-03-29 69.2 @ Rapid Wien 1 1732 46.26% Admira Wien 1 1696 30.25% 23.49%
15 1942-03-29 68.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1665 34.52% Austria Wien 1 1713 41.95% 23.53%
16 1942-04-12 68.8 First Vienna 4 1780 46.70% @ Admira Wien 3 1697 29.87% 23.43%
17 1941-11-16 68.5 @ First Vienna 5 1746 54.99% Admira Wien 4 1637 21.87% 23.14%
18 1941-11-23 68.5 First Vienna 3 1752 35.56% @ Wacker Wien 2 1749 40.87% 23.56%
19 1942-03-08 68.5 Wacker Wien 3 1718 34.74% @ Admira Wien 2 1721 41.70% 23.56%
20 1942-03-22 68.3 Floridsdorfer 2 1513 14.35% @ Admira Wien 1 1711 63.29% 22.36%
21 1942-02-22 67.5 @ Admira Wien 3 1712 38.19% Austria Wien 2 1734 38.24% 23.56%
22 1942-03-15 67.4 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1510 16.43% Austria Wien 1 1725 61.08% 22.49%
23 1942-04-06 67.3 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1550 17.24% FC Wien 1 1755 60.16% 22.60%
24 1942-03-15 66.6 FC Wien 4 1740 36.89% @ Wacker Wien 2 1728 39.55% 23.56%
25 1941-10-05 66.4 @ Austria Wien 0 1763 63.49% Floridsdorfer 0 1563 14.17% 22.33%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1942-03-22 38.5 @ Wacker Wien 4 1713 73.19% Post SV Wien 0 1360 6.62% 20.20%
2 1942-04-06 39.0 First Vienna 6 1771 74.44% @ Post SV Wien 0 1353 5.98% 19.58%
3 1942-03-08 39.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 9 1664 69.24% Post SV Wien 0 1383 9.47% 21.30%
4 1942-04-19 39.4 Floridsdorfer 2 1575 62.17% @ Post SV Wien 0 1348 15.47% 22.36%
5 1942-01-18 41.4 FC Wien 8 1706 67.75% @ Post SV Wien 0 1406 10.80% 21.45%
6 1941-12-07 41.9 Admira Wien 6 1715 66.77% @ Post SV Wien 0 1429 11.59% 21.64%
7 1941-10-18 43.2 @ First Vienna 6 1729 67.54% Post SV Wien 0 1474 10.80% 21.66%
8 1942-01-04 44.4 @ Rapid Wien 2 1747 72.40% Post SV Wien 0 1410 7.15% 20.45%
9 1941-10-12 45.7 Wacker Wien 4 1714 61.86% @ Post SV Wien 0 1491 15.74% 22.40%
10 1941-11-16 47.5 Austria Wien 5 1765 69.19% @ Post SV Wien 1 1443 9.68% 21.13%
11 1941-09-06 47.6 @ FC Wien 4 1591 48.66% Post SV Wien 0 1536 27.91% 23.43%
12 1941-11-02 49.7 @ Admira Wien 6 1616 60.01% Post SV Wien 2 1456 17.25% 22.74%
13 1941-12-07 51.0 @ Rapid Wien 10 1723 59.90% Floridsdorfer 2 1565 17.34% 22.75%
14 1941-10-19 51.2 Rapid Wien 4 1771 52.37% @ Admira Wien 0 1641 24.43% 23.20%
15 1941-11-23 51.3 @ Austria Wien 4 1774 53.05% FC Wien 0 1682 23.70% 23.25%
16 1942-01-11 52.0 @ First Vienna 7 1713 62.57% Floridsdorfer 2 1524 14.97% 22.46%
17 1941-10-05 52.3 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1624 50.80% @ Post SV Wien 1 1508 25.92% 23.28%
18 1942-04-12 53.1 @ FC Wien 3 1731 49.93% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1665 26.68% 23.39%
19 1941-08-31 53.8 Rapid Wien 3 1779 62.93% @ Post SV Wien 1 1543 14.81% 22.26%
20 1941-08-31 53.9 @ Austria Wien 6 1713 41.18% Wacker Wien 0 1715 35.26% 23.56%
21 1941-09-21 55.5 Wacker Wien 3 1689 40.56% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1650 35.89% 23.55%
22 1942-03-22 56.2 @ First Vienna 5 1748 49.36% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1688 27.23% 23.41%
23 1941-09-07 57.9 @ Rapid Wien 2 1787 57.20% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1656 19.81% 22.99%
24 1942-01-04 58.1 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1630 47.44% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1541 29.15% 23.41%
25 1941-11-16 58.3 @ Wacker Wien 2 1730 39.78% Rapid Wien 0 1742 36.65% 23.56%