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1940-41 Gauliga Season

86 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

First Vienna

3.56 points above expected

22 points · 18.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Linzer ASK

6.34 points below expected

1 points · 7.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 12 4 2 28 82 29 +53 24.92 +3.08
2 Wacker Wien 18 10 4 4 24 60 33 +27 20.88 +3.12
3 Austria Wien 18 10 2 6 22 56 22 +34 21.90 +0.10
4 First Vienna 17 10 2 5 22 52 33 +19 18.44 +3.56
5 Admira Wien 18 8 5 5 21 56 46 +10 20.74 +0.26
6 Wiener Sport-Club 18 7 4 7 18 47 37 +10 20.16 -2.16
7 Floridsdorfer 17 6 3 8 15 40 60 -20 13.06 +1.94
8 FC Wien 17 4 6 7 14 32 40 -8 15.23 -1.23
9 Grazer SC 16 3 1 12 7 26 62 -36 9.34 -2.34
10 Linzer ASK 15 0 1 14 1 17 106 -89 7.34 -6.34

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 22 18.44 +3.56
2 Wacker Wien 24 20.88 +3.12
3 Rapid Wien 28 24.92 +3.08
4 Floridsdorfer 15 13.06 +1.94
5 Admira Wien 21 20.74 +0.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Linzer ASK 1 7.34 -6.34
2 Grazer SC 7 9.34 -2.34
3 Wiener Sport-Club 18 20.16 -2.16
4 FC Wien 14 15.23 -1.23
5 Austria Wien 22 21.90 +0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 3 Feb 16 – Mar 9 1 in 14
2 FC Wien 2 Sep 1 – Sep 8 1 in 10
3 Austria Wien 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 10
4 Floridsdorfer 2 Nov 3 – Dec 1 1 in 6
5 Wacker Wien 3 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Wien 6 Oct 27 – Mar 2 1 in 104
2 Linzer ASK 10 Oct 27 – Apr 27 1 in 91
3 Austria Wien 3 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 12
4 First Vienna 3 Nov 3 – Dec 1 1 in 9
5 Grazer SC 5 Dec 1 – Mar 9 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Wien 6 Sep 1 – Oct 20 1 in 23
2 First Vienna 7 Feb 16 – Apr 6 1 in 19
3 Rapid Wien 12 Dec 15 – May 25 1 in 8
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Oct 27 – Dec 1 1 in 8
5 Wacker Wien 5 Jan 19 – Mar 2 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Wien 11 Oct 20 – Mar 30 1 in 72
2 Wiener Sport-Club 7 Feb 2 – Mar 23 1 in 69
3 Linzer ASK 15 Sep 1 – Apr 27 1 in 39
4 Admira Wien 3 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 7
5 Austria Wien 3 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1908 28 +13 8 7.4 +0.6
Wacker Wien 1778 24 +42 8 6.7 +1.3
First Vienna 1782 22 +104 9 6.2 +2.8
Austria Wien 1762 22 +16 4 5.3 -1.3
Admira Wien 1684 21 -19 5 5.7 -0.7
Wiener Sport-Club 1650 18 +0 5 6.5 -1.5
Floridsdorfer 1487 15 -54 4 3.8 +0.2
FC Wien 1529 14 +25 5 3.4 +1.6
Grazer SC 1417 7 -18 2 2.5 -0.5
Linzer ASK 1277 1 -55 0 2.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FW FV FLO GS LA RW WW WS
Admira Wien —
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
3.15
0-2-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.10
2-0-0
4.56
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.38
Austria Wien
1-0-1
3.43
 —
2-0-0
3.73
0-1-1
3.08
0-0-2
4.14
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.94
0-0-2
2.72
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
2.83
FC Wien
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.87
 —
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
3.44
0-1-0
1.69
1-1-0
1.67
0-0-2
2.14
1-1-0
2.34
First Vienna
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.53
1-0-1
3.24
 —
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
4.30
1-0-0
1.78
0-1-1
1.87
1-0-1
2.14
1-0-1
3.43
Floridsdorfer
0-2-0
1.43
2-0-0
1.47
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
2.04
 —
0-0-1
1.61
2-0-0
3.26
0-0-2
1.17
1-0-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.85
Grazer SC
0-0-2
1.52
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.32
1-0-0
1.20
 —
1-0-0
1.16
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
1.50
1-0-1
1.42
Linzer ASK
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
1.68
0-1-0
1.12
0-0-1
1.02
0-0-2
2.35
0-0-1
1.64
 —
0-0-2
0.66
0-0-2
1.11
0-0-2
1.38
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
3.96
1-1-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.90
2-0-0
4.99
 —
1-1-0
3.49
0-1-1
3.70
Wacker Wien
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
2.66
2-0-0
3.48
1-0-1
3.47
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
4.52
0-1-1
2.12
 —
1-1-0
2.65
Wiener Sport-Club
0-1-1
3.22
0-0-2
2.77
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.18
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
4.19
2-0-0
4.24
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-1
2.96
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +4.2
Allowed 0.79 -3.0
Differential 0.95 +2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.33%2.91%1.74%3.49%1.74%4.65%16.86%
12.91%5.81%3.49%2.91%4.07%4.65%23.84%
21.74%3.49%2.33%2.33%0.58%2.91%13.37%
33.49%2.91%2.33%6.98%0.58%2.91%19.19%
41.74%4.07%0.58%0.58%—1.74%8.72%
5+4.65%4.65%2.91%2.91%1.74%1.16%18.02%
Total16.86%23.84%13.37%19.19%8.72%18.02%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 2.72 +0.00
SD 2.73 2.73 4.32
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 21 21 +21
Min 0 0 -21

Games Played: 86

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3———22.22%——22.22%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%11.11%—11.11%—27.78%
Total5.56%22.22%16.67%33.33%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 2.56 +0.56
SD 2.27 1.46 2.87
CV 0.73 0.57 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total44.44%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 1.22 +1.89
SD 4.74 1.44 5.39
CV 1.52 1.18 —
Max 21 4 +21
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%5.88%————11.76%
1—11.76%11.76%5.88%5.88%5.88%41.18%
25.88%5.88%————11.76%
3—11.76%—11.76%——23.53%
4—————5.88%5.88%
5+—————5.88%5.88%
Total11.76%35.29%11.76%17.65%5.88%17.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 2.35 -0.47
SD 1.41 1.97 1.97
CV 0.75 0.84 —
Max 5 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%——5.88%—5.88%17.65%
15.88%5.88%—5.88%——17.65%
2—————5.88%5.88%
3—5.88%11.76%——5.88%23.53%
411.76%5.88%————17.65%
5+5.88%11.76%————17.65%
Total29.41%29.41%11.76%11.76%—17.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.94 +1.12
SD 2.61 2.19 4.00
CV 0.85 1.13 —
Max 8 7 +8
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.88%—5.88%11.76%23.53%
1————5.88%5.88%11.76%
2—5.88%———5.88%11.76%
35.88%5.88%—17.65%——29.41%
4——5.88%——5.88%11.76%
5+——5.88%5.88%——11.76%
Total5.88%11.76%17.65%23.53%11.76%29.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.35 3.53 -1.18
SD 1.84 2.27 3.54
CV 0.78 0.64 —
Max 6 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%25.00%
1—6.25%6.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%43.75%
2—6.25%————6.25%
3————6.25%6.25%12.50%
4———————
5+——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
Total—12.50%18.75%18.75%25.00%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 3.88 -2.25
SD 1.78 2.58 3.36
CV 1.10 0.67 —
Max 6 11 +3
Min 0 1 -10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%—6.67%—20.00%40.00%
1————6.67%20.00%26.67%
2—————13.33%13.33%
3—————20.00%20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.67%6.67%—6.67%6.67%73.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 7.07 -5.93
SD 1.19 4.92 5.02
CV 1.05 0.70 —
Max 3 21 +0
Min 0 0 -21

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+16.67%11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
Total33.33%22.22%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.56 1.61 +2.94
SD 3.33 1.58 3.75
CV 0.73 0.98 —
Max 11 5 +10
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—16.67%—11.11%——27.78%
Total5.56%55.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.33 1.83 +1.50
SD 2.83 1.34 3.29
CV 0.85 0.73 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%—5.56%11.11%——22.22%
4—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
5+11.11%—5.56%———16.67%
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 2.06 +0.56
SD 2.03 1.80 3.07
CV 0.78 0.87 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1908 28 24.92 +3.08 86.7% 15 19 23 25 27 30 34
First Vienna 1782 22 19.44 +2.56 80.0% 10 14 17 19 22 25 29
Wacker Wien 1778 24 20.88 +3.12 84.7% 10 15 19 21 23 26 31
Austria Wien 1762 22 21.90 +0.10 57.1% 10 16 19 22 24 28 32
Admira Wien 1684 21 20.74 +0.26 58.8% 10 15 18 21 23 27 30
Wiener Sport-Club 1650 18 20.16 -2.16 32.1% 8 15 18 20 23 26 30
FC Wien 1529 14 16.23 -2.23 30.6% 7 10 14 16 18 22 27
Floridsdorfer 1487 15 14.06 +0.94 66.6% 3 9 12 14 16 20 24
Grazer SC 1417 7 11.34 -4.34 10.8% 2 6 9 11 13 17 25
Linzer ASK 1277 1 10.34 -9.34 0.0% 3 5 8 10 12 15 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.63%
Slight Edge
46.51%18.60%34.88%
Elo Value
Home Edge
76 Elo
0.013 goals per Elo point
040.58200
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.67 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.24/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.65 * Some Luck: 2.65 to 3.98 * Lucky: 3.98 to 5.3 * Wild Swing: 5.3 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.99 * Close: 0.99 to 1.48 * Off: 1.48 to 1.97 * Way Off: 1.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.30 points
Some Luck
03.328
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.232.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
85.91%
First Vienna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.28%
Linzer ASK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.99
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
40%
Some Drama
0%27%100%
Blowouts
Expected
48%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.69
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.29
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien52.30%23.40%12.50%5.30%4.10%1.80%0.40%0.10%0.10%—
Wacker Wien9.50%15.80%20.40%19.10%13.60%10.90%7.90%2.20%0.60%—
Austria Wien15.30%22.10%19.70%14.80%13.10%10.00%3.40%1.10%0.40%0.10%
First Vienna4.70%11.10%13.60%14.70%17.70%17.40%13.40%5.80%1.30%0.30%
Admira Wien10.30%14.50%13.60%19.00%16.70%13.10%7.90%3.80%1.00%0.10%
Wiener Sport-Club7.60%10.30%14.60%17.50%17.10%16.50%10.60%5.10%0.60%0.10%
Floridsdorfer—0.50%1.10%2.30%5.80%10.00%17.90%32.90%20.60%8.90%
FC Wien0.20%2.30%4.30%6.60%10.10%16.30%27.20%19.60%8.90%4.50%
Grazer SC0.10%—0.20%0.70%1.30%2.30%7.80%18.50%34.80%34.30%
Linzer ASK————0.50%1.70%3.50%10.90%31.70%51.70%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rapid Wien 99.90% 0.10%
Austria Wien 99.50% 0.50%
Wacker Wien 99.40% 0.60%
Wiener Sport-Club 99.30% 0.70%
Admira Wien 98.90% 1.10%
First Vienna 98.40% 1.60%
FC Wien 86.60% 13.40%
Floridsdorfer 70.50% 29.50%
Grazer SC 30.90% 69.10%
Linzer ASK 16.60% 83.40%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1940-09-01 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-055.4 1649 1660 47.07% 19.72% 33.21%+0.39 +30.7 2
1940-09-01 @ Austria Wien L 0-355.4 1660 1649 33.21% 19.72% 47.07%-0.39 -30.7 0
1940-09-01 FC Wien L 1-364.1 1634 1581 54.95% 19.62% 25.43%+1.22 -28.1 0
1940-09-01 @ First Vienna W 3-164.1 1581 1634 25.43% 19.62% 54.95%-1.22 +28.1 2
1940-09-01 Linzer ASK W 6-363.4 1578 1623 42.42% 19.73% 37.85%-0.06 +23.1 2
1940-09-01 @ Floridsdorfer L 3-663.4 1623 1578 37.85% 19.73% 42.42%+0.06 -23.1 0
1940-09-01 Wacker Wien L 1-257.2 1532 1669 29.88% 19.62% 50.51%-1.26 -9.7 0
1940-09-01 @ Grazer SC W 2-157.2 1669 1532 50.51% 19.62% 29.88%+1.26 +9.7 2
1940-09-08 Grazer SC W 8-148.2 1668 1522 64.22% 19.31% 16.47%+2.44 +30.5 2
1940-09-08 @ Admira Wien L 1-848.2 1522 1668 16.47% 19.31% 64.22%-2.44 -30.5 0
1940-09-08 Rapid Wien W 3-161.4 1610 1680 38.80% 19.72% 41.48%-0.39 +21.9 4
1940-09-08 @ FC Wien L 1-361.4 1680 1610 41.48% 19.72% 38.80%+0.39 -21.9 0
1940-09-08 Austria Wien L 1-459.2 1600 1679 37.56% 19.71% 42.73%-0.50 -28.6 0
1940-09-08 @ Linzer ASK W 4-159.2 1679 1600 42.73% 19.71% 37.56%+0.50 +28.6 4
1940-09-15 FC Wien D 1-169.3 1698 1631 56.56% 19.59% 23.85%+1.41 -2.4 3
1940-09-15 @ Admira Wien D 1-169.3 1631 1698 23.85% 19.59% 56.56%-1.41 +2.4 5
1940-09-15 Wacker Wien W 4-053.6 1708 1679 52.22% 19.67% 28.11%+0.92 +34.9 6
1940-09-15 @ Austria Wien L 0-453.6 1679 1708 28.11% 19.67% 52.22%-0.92 -34.9 2
1940-09-15 Linzer ASK W 8-151.3 1606 1572 52.81% 19.66% 27.53%+0.98 +47.8 2
1940-09-15 @ First Vienna L 1-851.3 1572 1606 27.53% 19.66% 52.81%-0.98 -47.8 0
1940-09-15 Floridsdorfer W 5-260.5 1492 1602 33.37% 19.67% 46.96%-0.91 +29.8 2
1940-09-15 @ Grazer SC L 2-560.5 1602 1492 46.96% 19.67% 33.37%+0.91 -29.8 2
1940-09-29 Grazer SC D 1-166.2 1634 1522 61.25% 19.44% 19.31%+2.00 -3.1 6
1940-09-29 @ FC Wien D 1-166.2 1522 1634 19.31% 19.44% 61.25%-2.00 +3.1 3
1940-09-29 Austria Wien W 4-268.6 1572 1743 25.82% 19.52% 54.66%-1.71 +25.0 4
1940-09-29 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-468.6 1743 1572 54.66% 19.52% 25.82%+1.71 -25.0 6
1940-10-13 Linzer ASK W 6-253.0 1696 1524 66.38% 19.18% 14.44%+2.79 +13.7 5
1940-10-13 @ Admira Wien L 2-653.0 1524 1696 14.44% 19.18% 66.38%-2.79 -13.7 0
1940-10-13 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-158.8 1631 1629 48.76% 19.71% 31.53%+0.56 +10.1 8
1940-10-13 @ FC Wien L 1-258.8 1629 1631 31.53% 19.71% 48.76%-0.56 -10.1 0
1940-10-13 Floridsdorfer W 4-051.0 1654 1597 55.47% 19.61% 24.92%+1.28 +31.5 4
1940-10-13 @ First Vienna L 0-451.0 1597 1654 24.92% 19.61% 55.47%-1.28 -31.5 4
1940-10-13 Austria Wien L 0-351.4 1525 1718 23.40% 19.44% 57.15%-2.00 -22.8 3
1940-10-13 @ Grazer SC W 3-051.4 1718 1525 57.15% 19.44% 23.40%+2.00 +22.8 8
1940-10-13 Wacker Wien D 1-169.0 1658 1644 50.34% 19.69% 29.96%+0.72 -1.4 1
1940-10-13 @ Rapid Wien D 1-169.0 1644 1658 29.96% 19.69% 50.34%-0.72 +1.4 3
1940-10-20 First Vienna D 0-068.1 1741 1685 55.32% 19.62% 25.06%+1.26 -2.4 9
1940-10-20 @ Austria Wien D 0-068.1 1685 1741 25.06% 19.62% 55.32%-1.26 +2.4 5
1940-10-20 FC Wien D 0-064.0 1510 1641 30.64% 19.63% 49.73%-1.18 +1.5 1
1940-10-20 @ Linzer ASK D 0-064.0 1641 1510 49.73% 19.63% 30.64%+1.18 -1.5 9
1940-10-20 Admira Wien D 3-375.1 1645 1709 39.65% 19.72% 40.63%-0.31 +0.0 4
1940-10-20 @ Wacker Wien D 3-375.1 1709 1645 40.63% 19.72% 39.65%+0.31 -0.1 6
1940-10-27 Floridsdorfer D 3-374.3 1709 1565 64.13% 19.31% 16.55%+2.42 -2.2 7
1940-10-27 @ Admira Wien D 3-374.3 1565 1709 16.55% 19.31% 64.13%-2.42 +2.2 5
1940-10-27 Rapid Wien L 0-363.7 1738 1656 58.19% 19.55% 22.26%+1.60 -49.7 9
1940-10-27 @ Austria Wien W 3-063.7 1656 1738 22.26% 19.55% 58.19%-1.60 +49.7 3
1940-10-27 Wacker Wien L 1-462.3 1639 1645 47.76% 19.72% 32.53%+0.46 -34.9 9
1940-10-27 @ FC Wien W 4-162.3 1645 1639 32.53% 19.72% 47.76%-0.46 +34.9 6
1940-10-27 First Vienna L 0-449.6 1502 1687 24.21% 19.47% 56.32%-1.90 -30.7 3
1940-10-27 @ Grazer SC W 4-049.6 1687 1502 56.32% 19.47% 24.21%+1.90 +30.7 7
1940-10-27 Linzer ASK W 7-045.1 1619 1512 60.77% 19.46% 19.77%+1.94 +43.7 2
1940-10-27 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-745.1 1512 1619 19.77% 19.46% 60.77%-1.94 -43.7 1
1940-11-03 Admira Wien W 6-157.2 1706 1707 48.39% 19.71% 31.90%+0.52 +39.6 5
1940-11-03 @ Rapid Wien L 1-657.2 1707 1706 31.90% 19.71% 48.39%-0.52 -39.6 7
1940-11-03 Wacker Wien W 5-264.5 1567 1680 32.98% 19.67% 47.36%-0.95 +30.0 7
1940-11-03 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-564.5 1680 1567 47.36% 19.67% 32.98%+0.95 -30.0 6
1940-11-03 First Vienna W 3-058.0 1662 1718 40.87% 19.73% 39.40%-0.20 +35.3 4
1940-11-03 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-358.0 1718 1662 39.40% 19.73% 40.87%+0.20 -35.3 7
1940-11-10 First Vienna W 5-261.8 1668 1683 46.49% 19.72% 33.79%+0.33 +22.7 9
1940-11-10 @ Admira Wien L 2-561.8 1683 1668 33.79% 19.72% 46.49%-0.33 -22.7 7
1940-11-10 FC Wien W 1-054.1 1688 1604 58.43% 19.54% 22.03%+1.63 +7.9 11
1940-11-10 @ Austria Wien L 0-154.1 1604 1688 22.03% 19.54% 58.43%-1.63 -7.9 9
1940-11-10 Grazer SC L 3-657.8 1468 1471 48.08% 19.71% 32.21%+0.49 -28.2 1
1940-11-10 @ Linzer ASK W 6-357.8 1471 1468 32.21% 19.71% 48.08%-0.49 +28.2 5
1940-11-10 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-059.6 1650 1698 42.03% 19.73% 38.24%-0.09 +12.6 8
1940-11-10 @ Wacker Wien L 0-159.6 1698 1650 38.24% 19.73% 42.03%+0.09 -12.6 4
1940-11-24 Wacker Wien L 1-946.5 1440 1663 20.40% 19.32% 60.28%-2.39 -41.8 1
1940-11-24 @ Linzer ASK W 9-146.5 1663 1440 60.28% 19.32% 20.40%+2.39 +41.8 10
1940-12-01 Admira Wien W 2-056.6 1696 1690 49.31% 19.70% 30.99%+0.61 +20.0 13
1940-12-01 @ Austria Wien L 0-256.6 1690 1696 30.99% 19.70% 49.31%-0.61 -20.0 9
1940-12-01 FC Wien W 3-156.7 1597 1597 48.64% 19.71% 31.65%+0.54 +17.6 9
1940-12-01 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-356.7 1597 1597 31.65% 19.71% 48.64%-0.54 -17.6 9
1940-12-01 First Vienna W 7-050.3 1746 1660 58.60% 19.53% 21.87%+1.65 +47.7 7
1940-12-01 @ Rapid Wien L 0-750.3 1660 1746 21.87% 19.53% 58.60%-1.65 -47.7 7
1940-12-01 Grazer SC W 5-045.4 1685 1499 67.41% 19.11% 13.49%+2.97 +22.5 6
1940-12-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-545.4 1499 1685 13.49% 19.11% 67.41%-2.97 -22.5 5
1940-12-08 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-371.8 1793 1708 58.63% 19.53% 21.84%+1.66 -16.4 7
1940-12-08 @ Rapid Wien W 3-271.8 1708 1793 21.84% 19.53% 58.63%-1.66 +16.4 8
1940-12-08 First Vienna L 0-165.5 1704 1612 59.25% 19.51% 21.23%+1.74 -18.5 10
1940-12-08 @ Wacker Wien W 1-065.5 1612 1704 21.23% 19.51% 59.25%-1.74 +18.5 9
1940-12-15 Admira Wien D 3-375.5 1724 1670 55.10% 19.62% 25.28%+1.23 -1.3 9
1940-12-15 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 3-375.5 1670 1724 25.28% 19.62% 55.10%-1.23 +1.3 10
1940-12-15 Grazer SC W 11-145.6 1777 1477 74.15% 18.36% 7.50%+4.47 +20.3 9
1940-12-15 @ Rapid Wien L 1-1145.6 1477 1777 7.50% 18.36% 74.15%-4.47 -20.3 5
1940-12-22 Rapid Wien L 0-943.0 1398 1797 8.49% 18.22% 73.30%-4.71 -25.1 1
1940-12-22 @ Linzer ASK W 9-043.0 1797 1398 73.30% 18.22% 8.49%+4.71 +25.1 11
1940-12-22 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-257.0 1615 1723 33.66% 19.67% 46.67%-0.88 -21.4 9
1940-12-22 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-057.0 1723 1615 46.67% 19.67% 33.66%+0.88 +21.4 11
1941-01-12 Rapid Wien L 0-749.7 1594 1823 19.84% 19.30% 60.86%-2.47 -43.7 9
1941-01-12 @ Floridsdorfer W 7-049.7 1823 1594 60.86% 19.30% 19.84%+2.47 +43.7 13
1941-01-19 Linzer ASK W 21-040.3 1716 1373 76.02% 18.01% 5.97%+5.04 +40.7 15
1941-01-19 @ Austria Wien L 0-2140.3 1373 1716 5.97% 18.01% 76.02%-5.04 -40.7 1
1941-01-19 Floridsdorfer W 7-150.0 1686 1550 63.42% 19.35% 17.23%+2.31 +27.5 12
1941-01-19 @ Wacker Wien L 1-750.0 1550 1686 17.23% 19.35% 63.42%-2.31 -27.5 9
1941-01-26 Admira Wien L 1-450.8 1457 1672 21.17% 19.36% 59.48%-2.29 -17.6 5
1941-01-26 @ Grazer SC W 4-150.8 1672 1457 59.48% 19.36% 21.17%+2.29 +17.6 12
1941-02-02 Wiener Sport-Club W 6-470.1 1689 1744 41.03% 19.73% 39.25%-0.18 +17.1 14
1941-02-02 @ Admira Wien L 4-670.1 1744 1689 39.25% 19.73% 41.03%+0.18 -17.1 11
1941-02-02 Floridsdorfer L 1-270.6 1757 1522 70.66% 18.82% 10.52%+3.61 -20.8 15
1941-02-02 @ Austria Wien W 2-170.6 1522 1757 10.52% 18.82% 70.66%-3.61 +20.8 11
1941-02-02 Wacker Wien L 3-665.4 1631 1713 37.07% 19.71% 43.22%-0.55 -22.7 9
1941-02-02 @ First Vienna W 6-365.4 1713 1631 43.22% 19.71% 37.07%+0.55 +22.7 14
1941-02-02 Linzer ASK W 11-345.4 1866 1332 81.69% 16.14% 2.17%+7.54 +3.4 15
1941-02-02 @ Rapid Wien L 3-1145.4 1332 1866 2.17% 16.14% 81.69%-7.54 -3.4 1
1941-02-16 Austria Wien L 1-258.3 1579 1736 27.40% 19.56% 53.03%-1.53 -9.0 9
1941-02-16 @ FC Wien W 2-158.3 1736 1579 53.03% 19.56% 27.40%+1.53 +9.0 17
1941-02-16 Admira Wien W 3-266.6 1608 1706 34.92% 19.69% 45.39%-0.76 +13.0 11
1941-02-16 @ First Vienna L 2-366.6 1706 1608 45.39% 19.69% 34.92%+0.76 -12.9 14
1941-02-16 Floridsdorfer W 5-460.9 1870 1543 75.31% 18.15% 6.54%+4.81 +2.2 17
1941-02-16 @ Rapid Wien L 4-560.9 1543 1870 6.54% 18.15% 75.31%-4.81 -2.2 11
1941-02-16 Wacker Wien D 1-170.2 1727 1736 47.29% 19.72% 32.99%+0.41 -1.0 12
1941-02-16 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-170.2 1736 1727 32.99% 19.72% 47.29%-0.41 +1.0 15
1941-02-23 Admira Wien L 4-567.3 1570 1693 31.57% 19.64% 48.79%-1.09 -9.2 9
1941-02-23 @ FC Wien W 5-467.3 1693 1570 48.79% 19.64% 31.57%+1.09 +9.2 16
1941-02-23 Austria Wien D 2-272.9 1737 1745 47.46% 19.72% 32.82%+0.43 -0.8 16
1941-02-23 @ Wacker Wien D 2-272.9 1745 1737 32.82% 19.72% 47.46%-0.43 +0.8 18
1941-02-23 Rapid Wien D 2-273.3 1726 1872 28.76% 19.59% 51.64%-1.38 +1.2 13
1941-02-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-273.3 1872 1726 51.64% 19.59% 28.76%+1.38 -1.2 18
1941-03-02 Rapid Wien L 0-354.8 1703 1871 26.18% 19.53% 54.29%-1.67 -25.1 16
1941-03-02 @ Admira Wien W 3-054.8 1871 1703 54.29% 19.53% 26.18%+1.67 +25.1 20
1941-03-02 First Vienna L 1-755.8 1561 1621 40.19% 19.73% 40.08%-0.26 -56.5 9
1941-03-02 @ FC Wien W 7-155.8 1621 1561 40.08% 19.73% 40.19%+0.26 +56.5 13
1941-03-02 Grazer SC W 5-354.4 1736 1439 74.02% 18.38% 7.60%+4.43 +4.1 18
1941-03-02 @ Wacker Wien L 3-554.4 1439 1736 7.60% 18.38% 74.02%-4.43 -4.1 5
1941-03-02 Austria Wien L 0-658.2 1727 1746 46.00% 19.72% 34.27%+0.28 -76.7 13
1941-03-02 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 6-058.2 1746 1727 34.27% 19.72% 46.00%-0.28 +76.7 20
1941-03-09 Grazer SC W 3-149.2 1823 1435 77.65% 17.62% 4.73%+5.62 +3.0 22
1941-03-09 @ Austria Wien L 1-349.2 1435 1823 4.73% 17.62% 77.65%-5.62 -3.0 5
1941-03-09 First Vienna L 0-850.3 1541 1678 29.92% 19.62% 50.47%-1.26 -70.7 11
1941-03-09 @ Floridsdorfer W 8-050.3 1678 1541 50.47% 19.62% 29.92%+1.26 +70.7 15
1941-03-09 Rapid Wien L 2-362.8 1740 1896 27.65% 19.57% 52.78%-1.50 -8.6 18
1941-03-09 @ Wacker Wien W 3-262.8 1896 1740 52.78% 19.57% 27.65%+1.50 +8.6 22
1941-03-09 FC Wien D 3-371.8 1650 1504 64.30% 19.30% 16.39%+2.45 -2.2 14
1941-03-09 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 3-371.8 1504 1650 16.39% 19.30% 64.30%-2.45 +2.2 10
1941-03-16 Austria Wien W 4-165.2 1678 1826 28.51% 19.59% 51.91%-1.41 +37.6 18
1941-03-16 @ Admira Wien L 1-465.2 1826 1678 51.91% 19.59% 28.51%+1.41 -37.6 22
1941-03-16 Floridsdorfer D 3-365.6 1506 1470 53.03% 19.66% 27.31%+1.00 -1.1 11
1941-03-16 @ FC Wien D 3-365.6 1470 1506 27.31% 19.66% 53.03%-1.00 +1.1 12
1941-03-16 Rapid Wien D 1-170.7 1748 1904 27.58% 19.57% 52.86%-1.51 +1.8 16
1941-03-16 @ First Vienna D 1-170.7 1904 1748 52.86% 19.57% 27.58%+1.51 -1.8 23
1941-03-16 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-162.5 1432 1648 21.06% 19.35% 59.59%-2.30 +17.5 7
1941-03-16 @ Grazer SC L 1-262.5 1648 1432 59.59% 19.35% 21.06%+2.30 -17.5 14
1941-03-16 Linzer ASK W 9-139.7 1732 1329 78.17% 17.48% 4.35%+5.82 +9.6 20
1941-03-16 @ Wacker Wien L 1-939.7 1329 1732 4.35% 17.48% 78.17%-5.82 -9.6 1
1941-03-23 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-259.1 1750 1631 61.95% 19.42% 18.64%+2.10 +6.1 18
1941-03-23 @ First Vienna L 2-359.1 1631 1750 18.64% 19.42% 61.95%-2.10 -6.1 14
1941-03-23 FC Wien D 5-581.3 1902 1505 77.98% 17.53% 4.49%+5.74 -2.9 24
1941-03-23 @ Rapid Wien D 5-581.3 1505 1902 4.49% 17.53% 77.98%-5.74 +2.8 12
1941-03-23 Admira Wien L 0-143.0 1319 1715 8.64% 18.24% 73.12%-4.66 -3.3 1
1941-03-23 @ Linzer ASK W 1-043.0 1715 1319 73.12% 18.24% 8.64%+4.66 +3.3 20
1941-03-30 Grazer SC W 4-148.3 1756 1449 74.46% 18.31% 7.23%+4.56 +6.5 20
1941-03-30 @ First Vienna L 1-448.3 1449 1756 7.23% 18.31% 74.46%-4.56 -6.5 7
1941-03-30 Admira Wien D 3-372.7 1472 1719 18.22% 19.21% 62.57%-2.71 +2.0 13
1941-03-30 @ Floridsdorfer D 3-372.7 1719 1472 62.57% 19.21% 18.22%+2.71 -2.0 21
1941-03-30 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-643.6 1316 1624 13.47% 18.86% 67.66%-3.52 -12.8 1
1941-03-30 @ Linzer ASK W 6-243.6 1624 1316 67.66% 18.86% 13.47%+3.52 +12.8 16
1941-03-30 Austria Wien W 1-055.1 1900 1788 61.19% 19.45% 19.37%+2.00 +7.1 26
1941-03-30 @ Rapid Wien L 0-155.1 1788 1900 19.37% 19.45% 61.19%-2.00 -7.1 22
1941-03-30 FC Wien W 2-152.1 1741 1508 70.58% 18.83% 10.59%+3.59 +3.8 22
1941-03-30 @ Wacker Wien L 1-252.1 1508 1741 10.59% 18.83% 70.58%-3.59 -3.8 12
1941-04-06 Wacker Wien L 1-462.9 1716 1745 44.65% 19.73% 35.62%+0.15 -33.0 21
1941-04-06 @ Admira Wien W 4-162.9 1745 1716 35.62% 19.73% 44.65%-0.15 +33.0 24
1941-04-06 Austria Wien W 3-160.9 1763 1781 46.11% 19.72% 34.17%+0.29 +18.7 22
1941-04-06 @ First Vienna L 1-360.9 1781 1763 34.17% 19.72% 46.11%-0.29 -18.7 22
1941-04-06 Floridsdorfer W 4-148.4 1637 1474 65.74% 19.22% 15.04%+2.68 +13.0 18
1941-04-06 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-448.4 1474 1637 15.04% 19.22% 65.74%-2.68 -13.0 13
1941-04-27 Floridsdorfer L 0-338.3 1303 1461 27.37% 19.56% 53.07%-1.53 -26.1 1
1941-04-27 @ Linzer ASK W 3-038.3 1461 1303 53.07% 19.56% 27.37%+1.53 +26.1 15
1941-05-11 FC Wien L 0-248.4 1443 1504 40.08% 19.72% 40.20%-0.27 -24.6 7
1941-05-11 @ Grazer SC W 2-048.4 1504 1443 40.20% 19.72% 40.08%+0.27 +24.6 14
1941-05-25 Rapid Wien L 3-457.0 1418 1907 5.34% 17.44% 77.22%-5.87 -1.8 7
1941-05-25 @ Grazer SC W 4-357.0 1907 1418 77.22% 17.44% 5.34%+5.87 +1.8 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1941-02-02 10.52% Floridsdorfer 1522 2 @ Austria Wien 1757 1
2 1941-03-16 21.06% @ Grazer SC 1432 2 Wiener Sport-Club 1648 1
3 1940-12-08 21.23% First Vienna 1612 1 @ Wacker Wien 1704 0
4 1940-12-08 21.84% Wiener Sport-Club 1708 3 @ Rapid Wien 1793 2
5 1940-10-27 22.26% Rapid Wien 1656 3 @ Austria Wien 1738 0
6 1940-09-01 25.43% FC Wien 1581 3 @ First Vienna 1634 1
7 1940-09-29 25.82% @ Floridsdorfer 1572 4 Austria Wien 1743 2
8 1941-03-16 28.51% @ Admira Wien 1678 4 Austria Wien 1826 1
9 1940-11-10 32.21% Grazer SC 1471 6 @ Linzer ASK 1468 3
10 1940-10-27 32.53% Wacker Wien 1645 4 @ FC Wien 1639 1
11 1940-11-03 32.98% @ Floridsdorfer 1567 5 Wacker Wien 1680 2
12 1940-09-15 33.37% @ Grazer SC 1492 5 Floridsdorfer 1602 2
13 1941-03-02 34.27% Austria Wien 1746 6 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1727 0
14 1941-02-16 34.92% @ First Vienna 1608 3 Admira Wien 1706 2
15 1941-04-06 35.62% Wacker Wien 1745 4 @ Admira Wien 1716 1
16 1940-09-08 38.80% @ FC Wien 1610 3 Rapid Wien 1680 1
17 1941-03-02 40.08% First Vienna 1621 7 @ FC Wien 1561 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-03-02 76.70 Austria Wien 6 1746 34.27% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1727 46.00% 19.72%
2 1941-03-09 70.71 First Vienna 8 1678 50.47% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1541 29.92% 19.62%
3 1941-03-02 56.55 First Vienna 7 1621 40.08% @ FC Wien 1 1561 40.19% 19.73%
4 1940-10-27 49.73 Rapid Wien 3 1656 22.26% @ Austria Wien 0 1738 58.19% 19.55%
5 1940-09-15 47.83 @ First Vienna 8 1606 52.81% Linzer ASK 1 1572 27.53% 19.66%
6 1940-12-01 47.69 @ Rapid Wien 7 1746 58.60% First Vienna 0 1660 21.87% 19.53%
7 1941-01-12 43.67 Rapid Wien 7 1823 60.86% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1594 19.84% 19.30%
8 1940-10-27 43.66 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 1619 60.77% Linzer ASK 0 1512 19.77% 19.46%
9 1940-11-24 41.76 Wacker Wien 9 1663 60.28% @ Linzer ASK 1 1440 20.40% 19.32%
10 1941-01-19 40.73 @ Austria Wien 21 1716 76.02% Linzer ASK 0 1373 5.97% 18.01%
11 1940-11-03 39.60 @ Rapid Wien 6 1706 48.39% Admira Wien 1 1707 31.90% 19.71%
12 1941-03-16 37.61 @ Admira Wien 4 1678 28.51% Austria Wien 1 1826 51.91% 19.59%
13 1940-11-03 35.28 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1662 40.87% First Vienna 0 1718 39.40% 19.73%
14 1940-10-27 34.94 Wacker Wien 4 1645 32.53% @ FC Wien 1 1639 47.76% 19.72%
15 1940-09-15 34.90 @ Austria Wien 4 1708 52.22% Wacker Wien 0 1679 28.11% 19.67%
16 1941-04-06 32.98 Wacker Wien 4 1745 35.62% @ Admira Wien 1 1716 44.65% 19.73%
17 1940-10-13 31.51 @ First Vienna 4 1654 55.47% Floridsdorfer 0 1597 24.92% 19.61%
18 1940-09-01 30.70 @ Austria Wien 3 1649 47.07% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1660 33.21% 19.72%
19 1940-10-27 30.67 First Vienna 4 1687 56.32% @ Grazer SC 0 1502 24.21% 19.47%
20 1940-09-08 30.52 @ Admira Wien 8 1668 64.22% Grazer SC 1 1522 16.47% 19.31%
21 1940-11-03 30.02 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1567 32.98% Wacker Wien 2 1680 47.36% 19.67%
22 1940-09-15 29.80 @ Grazer SC 5 1492 33.37% Floridsdorfer 2 1602 46.96% 19.67%
23 1940-09-08 28.62 Austria Wien 4 1679 42.73% @ Linzer ASK 1 1600 37.56% 19.71%
24 1940-11-10 28.18 Grazer SC 6 1471 32.21% @ Linzer ASK 3 1468 48.08% 19.71%
25 1940-09-01 28.07 FC Wien 3 1581 25.43% @ First Vienna 1 1634 54.95% 19.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-03-23 81.3 @ Rapid Wien 5 1902 77.98% FC Wien 5 1505 4.49% 17.53%
2 1940-12-15 75.5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1724 55.10% Admira Wien 3 1670 25.28% 19.62%
3 1940-10-20 75.1 @ Wacker Wien 3 1645 39.65% Admira Wien 3 1709 40.63% 19.72%
4 1940-10-27 74.3 @ Admira Wien 3 1709 64.13% Floridsdorfer 3 1565 16.55% 19.31%
5 1941-02-23 73.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1726 28.76% Rapid Wien 2 1872 51.64% 19.59%
6 1941-02-23 72.9 @ Wacker Wien 2 1737 47.46% Austria Wien 2 1745 32.82% 19.72%
7 1941-03-30 72.7 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1472 18.22% Admira Wien 3 1719 62.57% 19.21%
8 1940-12-08 71.8 Wiener Sport-Club 3 1708 21.84% @ Rapid Wien 2 1793 58.63% 19.53%
9 1941-03-09 71.8 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1650 64.30% FC Wien 3 1504 16.39% 19.30%
10 1941-03-16 70.7 @ First Vienna 1 1748 27.58% Rapid Wien 1 1904 52.86% 19.57%
11 1941-02-02 70.6 Floridsdorfer 2 1522 10.52% @ Austria Wien 1 1757 70.66% 18.82%
12 1941-02-16 70.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1727 47.29% Wacker Wien 1 1736 32.99% 19.72%
13 1941-02-02 70.1 @ Admira Wien 6 1689 41.03% Wiener Sport-Club 4 1744 39.25% 19.73%
14 1940-09-15 69.3 @ Admira Wien 1 1698 56.56% FC Wien 1 1631 23.85% 19.59%
15 1940-10-13 69.0 @ Rapid Wien 1 1658 50.34% Wacker Wien 1 1644 29.96% 19.69%
16 1940-09-29 68.6 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1572 25.82% Austria Wien 2 1743 54.66% 19.52%
17 1940-10-20 68.1 @ Austria Wien 0 1741 55.32% First Vienna 0 1685 25.06% 19.62%
18 1941-02-23 67.3 Admira Wien 5 1693 48.79% @ FC Wien 4 1570 31.57% 19.64%
19 1941-02-16 66.6 @ First Vienna 3 1608 34.92% Admira Wien 2 1706 45.39% 19.69%
20 1940-09-29 66.2 @ FC Wien 1 1634 61.25% Grazer SC 1 1522 19.31% 19.44%
21 1941-03-16 65.6 @ FC Wien 3 1506 53.03% Floridsdorfer 3 1470 27.31% 19.66%
22 1940-12-08 65.5 First Vienna 1 1612 21.23% @ Wacker Wien 0 1704 59.25% 19.51%
23 1941-02-02 65.4 Wacker Wien 6 1713 43.22% @ First Vienna 3 1631 37.07% 19.71%
24 1941-03-16 65.2 @ Admira Wien 4 1678 28.51% Austria Wien 1 1826 51.91% 19.59%
25 1940-11-03 64.5 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1567 32.98% Wacker Wien 2 1680 47.36% 19.67%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-04-27 38.3 Floridsdorfer 3 1461 53.07% @ Linzer ASK 0 1303 27.37% 19.56%
2 1941-03-16 39.7 @ Wacker Wien 9 1732 78.17% Linzer ASK 1 1329 4.35% 17.48%
3 1941-01-19 40.3 @ Austria Wien 21 1716 76.02% Linzer ASK 0 1373 5.97% 18.01%
4 1940-12-22 43.0 Rapid Wien 9 1797 73.30% @ Linzer ASK 0 1398 8.49% 18.22%
5 1941-03-23 43.0 Admira Wien 1 1715 73.12% @ Linzer ASK 0 1319 8.64% 18.24%
6 1941-03-30 43.6 Wiener Sport-Club 6 1624 67.66% @ Linzer ASK 2 1316 13.47% 18.86%
7 1940-10-27 45.1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 1619 60.77% Linzer ASK 0 1512 19.77% 19.46%
8 1940-12-01 45.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1685 67.41% Grazer SC 0 1499 13.49% 19.11%
9 1941-02-02 45.4 @ Rapid Wien 11 1866 81.69% Linzer ASK 3 1332 2.17% 16.14%
10 1940-12-15 45.6 @ Rapid Wien 11 1777 74.15% Grazer SC 1 1477 7.50% 18.36%
11 1940-11-24 46.5 Wacker Wien 9 1663 60.28% @ Linzer ASK 1 1440 20.40% 19.32%
12 1940-09-08 48.2 @ Admira Wien 8 1668 64.22% Grazer SC 1 1522 16.47% 19.31%
13 1941-03-30 48.3 @ First Vienna 4 1756 74.46% Grazer SC 1 1449 7.23% 18.31%
14 1941-04-06 48.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1637 65.74% Floridsdorfer 1 1474 15.04% 19.22%
15 1941-05-11 48.4 FC Wien 2 1504 40.20% @ Grazer SC 0 1443 40.08% 19.72%
16 1941-03-09 49.2 @ Austria Wien 3 1823 77.65% Grazer SC 1 1435 4.73% 17.62%
17 1940-10-27 49.6 First Vienna 4 1687 56.32% @ Grazer SC 0 1502 24.21% 19.47%
18 1941-01-12 49.7 Rapid Wien 7 1823 60.86% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1594 19.84% 19.30%
19 1941-01-19 50.0 @ Wacker Wien 7 1686 63.42% Floridsdorfer 1 1550 17.23% 19.35%
20 1940-12-01 50.3 @ Rapid Wien 7 1746 58.60% First Vienna 0 1660 21.87% 19.53%
21 1941-03-09 50.3 First Vienna 8 1678 50.47% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1541 29.92% 19.62%
22 1941-01-26 50.8 Admira Wien 4 1672 59.48% @ Grazer SC 1 1457 21.17% 19.36%
23 1940-10-13 51.0 @ First Vienna 4 1654 55.47% Floridsdorfer 0 1597 24.92% 19.61%
24 1940-09-15 51.3 @ First Vienna 8 1606 52.81% Linzer ASK 1 1572 27.53% 19.66%
25 1940-10-13 51.4 Austria Wien 3 1718 57.15% @ Grazer SC 0 1525 23.40% 19.44%