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1938-39 Gauliga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Admira Wien

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wacker Wien

4.94 points above expected

26 points · 21.06 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Reichsbahn Wacker

6.02 points below expected

4 points · 10.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Admira Wien 18 12 4 2 28 62 20 +42 23.08 +4.92
2 Wacker Wien 18 12 2 4 26 52 27 +25 21.06 +4.94
3 Rapid Wien 18 11 3 4 25 60 29 +31 24.84 +0.16
4 Wiener Sport-Club 18 10 4 4 24 50 28 +22 21.17 +2.83
5 First Vienna 18 9 4 5 22 47 37 +10 18.20 +3.80
6 Austria Wien 18 9 3 6 21 55 40 +15 19.70 +1.30
7 SV Amateure Fiat 18 6 3 9 15 47 50 -3 17.43 -2.43
8 Grazer SC 18 5 1 12 11 34 53 -19 14.70 -3.70
9 SK Amateure Steyr 18 2 0 16 4 22 75 -53 9.79 -5.79
10 Reichsbahn Wacker 18 2 0 16 4 17 87 -70 10.02 -6.02

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wacker Wien 26 21.06 +4.94
2 Admira Wien 28 23.08 +4.92
3 First Vienna 22 18.20 +3.80
4 Wiener Sport-Club 24 21.17 +2.83
5 Austria Wien 21 19.70 +1.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Reichsbahn Wacker 4 10.02 -6.02
2 SK Amateure Steyr 4 9.79 -5.79
3 Grazer SC 11 14.70 -3.70
4 SV Amateure Fiat 15 17.43 -2.43
5 Rapid Wien 25 24.84 +0.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 9 Oct 23 – Jan 22 1 in 173
2 First Vienna 4 Nov 13 – Dec 18 1 in 29
3 Wiener Sport-Club 5 Sep 11 – Oct 23 1 in 24
4 Grazer SC 2 Oct 9 – Oct 16 1 in 8
5 Rapid Wien 4 Oct 16 – Nov 1 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grazer SC 9 Oct 23 – Feb 5 1 in 643
2 SK Amateure Steyr 7 Sep 11 – Nov 1 1 in 81
3 Reichsbahn Wacker 7 Dec 11 – Mar 26 1 in 19
4 Admira Wien 2 Sep 25 – Oct 9 1 in 11
5 SV Amateure Fiat 3 Nov 13 – Nov 27 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Admira Wien 14 Oct 16 – Mar 19 1 in 97
2 First Vienna 6 Oct 30 – Jan 8 1 in 57
3 Wacker Wien 10 Oct 23 – Feb 5 1 in 45
4 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Sep 11 – Oct 30 1 in 12
5 SV Amateure Fiat 4 Aug 28 – Oct 9 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grazer SC 11 Oct 23 – Mar 5 1 in 70
2 SK Amateure Steyr 7 Sep 11 – Nov 1 1 in 14
3 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Jan 29 – Feb 12 1 in 8
4 SV Amateure Fiat 3 Oct 9 – Oct 23 1 in 7
5 Admira Wien 2 Sep 25 – Oct 9 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Admira Wien 1788 28 +65 8 6.2 +1.8
Wacker Wien 1697 26 +17 5 5.4 -0.4
Rapid Wien 1673 25 -63 7 7.8 -0.8
Wiener Sport-Club 1648 24 +75 8 6.9 +1.1
First Vienna 1587 22 +61 6 5.5 +0.5
Austria Wien 1704 21 +75 6 4.7 +1.3
SV Amateure Fiat 1394 13 -74 3 3.7 -0.7
Grazer SC 1370 11 +33 5 3.4 +1.6
Reichsbahn Wacker 1171 4 -118 0 2.3 -2.3
SK Amateure Steyr 1188 4 -88 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FV GS RW RW SAS SAF WW WS
Admira Wien —
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.36
1-0-1
4.11
1-1-0
2.74
2-0-0
4.83
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
4.10
2-0-0
3.05
0-2-0
3.12
Austria Wien
0-0-2
2.18
 —
1-1-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
2.03
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.88
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.90
0-1-1
2.99
First Vienna
0-1-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.74
 —
2-0-0
3.38
0-0-2
2.02
2-0-0
4.40
2-0-0
4.39
1-1-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.17
2-0-0
1.88
Grazer SC
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
2.33
 —
0-0-2
1.15
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
4.16
2-0-0
2.44
0-0-2
2.16
0-1-1
1.53
Rapid Wien
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.68
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.57
 —
2-0-0
5.10
2-0-0
5.13
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.73
Reichsbahn Wacker
0-0-2
0.89
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.31
1-0-1
2.07
0-0-2
0.62
 —
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
2.29
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
1.10
SK Amateure Steyr
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-2
1.33
1-0-1
1.56
0-0-2
0.60
1-0-1
2.68
 —
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-2
0.86
0-0-2
2.05
SV Amateure Fiat
1-0-1
1.61
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
2.98
0-0-2
3.28
0-1-1
2.18
2-0-0
3.43
2-0-0
4.12
 —
1-0-1
2.02
0-0-2
1.82
Wacker Wien
0-0-2
2.66
2-0-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.55
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
2.33
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.86
1-0-1
3.70
 —
1-0-1
2.84
Wiener Sport-Club
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
3.84
1-1-0
4.19
1-0-1
1.98
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +5.6
Allowed 0.96 -4.0
Differential 0.96 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%1.11%3.33%2.22%3.33%3.33%16.67%
11.11%3.33%5.00%2.78%3.33%3.33%18.89%
23.33%5.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%4.44%22.78%
32.22%2.78%3.33%2.22%2.22%1.67%14.44%
43.33%3.33%3.33%2.22%1.11%—13.33%
5+3.33%3.33%4.44%1.67%—1.11%13.89%
Total16.67%18.89%22.78%14.44%13.33%13.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.47 2.47 +0.00
SD 2.24 2.24 3.55
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 13 13 +12
Min -1 -1 -12

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
411.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.44 1.11 +2.33
SD 2.62 1.18 3.14
CV 0.76 1.06 —
Max 10 4 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
1——11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
411.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
5+—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
Total16.67%11.11%38.89%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 2.22 +0.83
SD 2.01 1.56 3.01
CV 0.66 0.70 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 2.06 +0.56
SD 1.65 1.63 2.57
CV 0.63 0.79 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%22.22%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%——5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3———————
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total5.56%11.11%33.33%27.78%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.94 -1.06
SD 1.60 1.98 2.75
CV 0.85 0.67 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%———5.56%—16.67%
1——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.33 1.61 +1.72
SD 3.12 1.42 3.54
CV 0.94 0.88 —
Max 13 4 +12
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%11.11%—16.67%44.44%
1—————16.67%16.67%
2————11.11%11.11%22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total—11.11%16.67%11.11%11.11%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 4.78 -3.89
SD 1.18 3.86 4.04
CV 1.33 0.81 —
Max 3 13 +2
Min -1 -1 -12

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%33.33%
1———5.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
25.56%——5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%—11.11%16.67%33.33%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 4.17 -2.94
SD 1.17 2.04 2.48
CV 0.95 0.49 —
Max 4 9 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
1——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%11.11%——27.78%
3————5.56%5.56%11.11%
4——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
5+——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
Total—5.56%33.33%22.22%27.78%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 2.72 -0.17
SD 2.31 1.41 2.62
CV 0.90 0.52 —
Max 9 5 +7
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
211.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
3———————
4——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.89 1.50 +1.39
SD 2.08 1.20 2.23
CV 0.72 0.80 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
25.56%11.11%——5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.56 +1.22
SD 2.67 1.98 3.56
CV 0.96 1.27 —
Max 12 7 +12
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Admira Wien 1788 28 23.08 +4.92 93.6% 10 17 21 23 25 29 35
Austria Wien 1704 21 19.70 +1.30 69.2% 7 14 17 20 22 26 31
Wacker Wien 1697 26 21.06 +4.94 93.4% 10 15 19 21 24 27 32
Rapid Wien 1673 25 24.84 +0.16 57.0% 13 19 23 25 27 30 34
Wiener Sport-Club 1648 24 21.17 +2.83 81.4% 9 15 19 21 24 27 31
First Vienna 1587 22 18.20 +3.80 88.5% 8 13 16 18 20 24 28
SV Amateure Fiat 1394 15 17.43 -2.43 28.8% 4 12 15 17 20 23 29
Grazer SC 1370 11 14.70 -3.70 16.8% 5 9 12 15 17 20 27
SK Amateure Steyr 1188 4 9.79 -5.79 4.1% 0 5 8 10 12 15 20
Reichsbahn Wacker 1171 4 10.02 -6.02 3.4% 1 5 8 10 12 15 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Slight Edge
50.00%13.33%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
89 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
042.68250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.48+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
26%
Admira Wien, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.76 * Some Luck: 2.76 to 4.13 * Lucky: 4.13 to 5.51 * Wild Swing: 5.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.06 * Close: 1.06 to 1.59 * Off: 1.59 to 2.12 * Way Off: 2.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.03 points
Some Luck
03.449
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.333
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.60%
Admira Wien
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.40%
Reichsbahn Wacker
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.11
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
38%
Some Drama
0%33%100%
Blowouts
Expected
41%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.42
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Admira Wien25.60%26.70%18.20%13.30%8.20%4.00%2.30%1.20%0.50%—
Wacker Wien10.90%15.40%20.40%17.20%12.80%12.10%7.20%3.20%0.70%0.10%
Rapid Wien44.90%23.60%15.10%8.00%4.70%2.80%0.40%0.50%——
Wiener Sport-Club10.70%15.70%18.10%18.80%16.40%9.90%6.50%3.50%0.30%0.10%
First Vienna1.40%5.50%8.20%12.90%16.70%21.60%19.00%10.70%3.20%0.80%
Austria Wien5.20%9.30%13.40%17.80%19.30%15.50%11.30%5.70%2.00%0.50%
SV Amateure Fiat1.00%3.30%5.20%8.70%15.10%20.80%24.00%14.40%6.70%0.80%
Grazer SC0.30%0.50%1.40%3.10%5.70%10.50%21.60%38.00%14.50%4.40%
SK Amateure Steyr———0.10%0.30%1.50%4.40%10.80%36.90%46.00%
Reichsbahn Wacker———0.10%0.80%1.30%3.30%12.00%35.20%47.30%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rapid Wien 99.50% 0.50%
Admira Wien 98.30% 1.70%
Wiener Sport-Club 96.10% 3.90%
Wacker Wien 96.00% 4.00%
Austria Wien 91.80% 8.20%
First Vienna 85.30% 14.70%
SV Amateure Fiat 78.10% 21.90%
Grazer SC 43.10% 56.90%
SK Amateure Steyr 6.30% 93.70%
Reichsbahn Wacker 5.50% 94.50%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1938-08-28 Grazer SC W 3-254.8 1526 1507 54.28% 14.29% 31.43%+0.69 +14.3 2
1938-08-28 @ Austria Wien L 2-354.8 1507 1526 31.43% 14.29% 54.28%-0.69 -14.4 0
1938-08-28 Admira Wien L 1-455.3 1523 1531 50.73% 14.30% 34.97%+0.39 -56.4 0
1938-08-28 @ First Vienna W 4-155.3 1531 1523 34.97% 14.30% 50.73%-0.39 +56.4 2
1938-08-28 SV Amateure Fiat L 2-459.2 1507 1507 51.82% 14.29% 33.89%+0.48 -36.4 0
1938-08-28 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 4-259.2 1507 1507 33.89% 14.29% 51.82%-0.48 +36.4 2
1938-09-10 First Vienna D 2-266.7 1544 1466 61.18% 14.26% 24.57%+1.35 -3.1 3
1938-09-10 @ SV Amateure Fiat D 2-266.7 1466 1544 24.57% 14.26% 61.18%-1.35 +3.1 1
1938-09-11 Rapid Wien W 4-155.0 1587 1603 49.70% 14.30% 36.01%+0.30 +41.8 4
1938-09-11 @ Admira Wien L 1-455.0 1603 1587 36.01% 14.30% 49.70%-0.30 -41.8 0
1938-09-11 Reichsbahn Wacker W 5-249.7 1493 1471 54.66% 14.29% 31.05%+0.73 +31.8 2
1938-09-11 @ Grazer SC L 2-549.7 1471 1493 31.05% 14.29% 54.66%-0.73 -31.8 0
1938-09-11 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-252.1 1507 1516 50.61% 14.30% 35.09%+0.38 -45.9 0
1938-09-11 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 2-052.1 1516 1507 35.09% 14.30% 50.61%-0.38 +45.9 2
1938-09-11 Austria Wien W 2-153.9 1491 1541 45.01% 14.30% 40.69%-0.08 +19.0 2
1938-09-11 @ Wacker Wien L 1-253.9 1541 1491 40.69% 14.30% 45.01%+0.08 -19.0 2
1938-09-14 Wacker Wien W 1-048.6 1562 1510 58.35% 14.27% 27.38%+1.07 +14.2 4
1938-09-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-148.6 1510 1562 27.38% 14.27% 58.35%-1.07 -14.2 2
1938-09-18 Wacker Wien L 0-246.9 1439 1496 44.02% 14.30% 41.69%-0.16 -40.6 0
1938-09-18 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 2-046.9 1496 1439 41.69% 14.30% 44.02%+0.16 +40.6 4
1938-09-18 Austria Wien L 0-346.9 1461 1522 43.48% 14.30% 42.22%-0.20 -58.3 0
1938-09-18 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 3-046.9 1522 1461 42.22% 14.30% 43.48%+0.20 +58.3 4
1938-09-25 SV Amateure Fiat L 3-472.1 1629 1540 62.38% 14.25% 23.37%+1.47 -26.0 4
1938-09-25 @ Admira Wien W 4-372.1 1540 1629 23.37% 14.25% 62.38%-1.47 +26.0 5
1938-09-25 Grazer SC W 2-152.8 1469 1525 44.22% 14.30% 41.49%-0.14 +19.3 3
1938-09-25 @ First Vienna L 1-252.8 1525 1469 41.49% 14.30% 44.22%+0.14 -19.3 2
1938-10-09 Admira Wien W 2-054.2 1505 1603 38.19% 14.29% 47.52%-0.62 +43.4 4
1938-10-09 @ Grazer SC L 0-254.2 1603 1505 47.52% 14.29% 38.19%+0.62 -43.4 4
1938-10-09 Reichsbahn Wacker L 2-353.6 1403 1399 52.41% 14.29% 33.30%+0.53 -22.5 0
1938-10-09 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 3-253.6 1399 1403 33.30% 14.29% 52.41%-0.53 +22.5 2
1938-10-09 Rapid Wien D 2-270.7 1566 1561 52.48% 14.29% 33.22%+0.54 -1.6 6
1938-10-09 @ SV Amateure Fiat D 2-270.7 1561 1566 33.22% 14.29% 52.48%-0.54 +1.6 1
1938-10-09 First Vienna D 1-164.0 1536 1489 57.79% 14.27% 27.93%+1.01 -3.4 5
1938-10-09 @ Wacker Wien D 1-164.0 1489 1536 27.93% 14.27% 57.79%-1.01 +3.4 4
1938-10-09 Austria Wien W 4-048.8 1576 1580 51.36% 14.29% 34.35%+0.44 +62.1 6
1938-10-09 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-448.8 1580 1576 34.35% 14.29% 51.36%-0.44 -62.1 4
1938-10-16 Wacker Wien W 3-256.6 1560 1533 55.26% 14.28% 30.46%+0.78 +14.0 6
1938-10-16 @ Admira Wien L 2-356.6 1533 1560 30.46% 14.28% 55.26%-0.78 -14.0 5
1938-10-16 SK Amateure Steyr W 6-137.9 1492 1380 64.73% 14.23% 21.04%+1.73 +40.8 6
1938-10-16 @ First Vienna L 1-637.9 1380 1492 21.04% 14.23% 64.73%-1.73 -40.8 0
1938-10-16 Austria Wien W 5-148.4 1563 1518 57.50% 14.28% 28.23%+0.99 +43.5 3
1938-10-16 @ Rapid Wien L 1-548.4 1518 1563 28.23% 14.28% 57.50%-0.99 -43.5 4
1938-10-16 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-343.7 1421 1638 23.44% 14.21% 62.35%-1.96 -33.8 2
1938-10-16 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 3-043.7 1638 1421 62.35% 14.21% 23.44%+1.96 +33.8 8
1938-10-16 Grazer SC L 3-468.0 1565 1549 53.91% 14.29% 31.80%+0.66 -22.5 6
1938-10-16 @ SV Amateure Fiat W 4-368.0 1549 1565 31.80% 14.29% 53.91%-0.66 +22.5 6
1938-10-22 Reichsbahn Wacker W 8-239.9 1474 1387 62.23% 14.25% 23.52%+1.46 +44.3 6
1938-10-22 @ Austria Wien L 2-839.9 1387 1474 23.52% 14.25% 62.23%-1.46 -44.3 2
1938-10-23 Rapid Wien L 0-450.5 1533 1606 41.59% 14.30% 44.11%-0.35 -73.3 6
1938-10-23 @ First Vienna W 4-050.5 1606 1533 44.11% 14.30% 41.59%+0.35 +73.3 5
1938-10-23 Admira Wien L 0-436.6 1340 1574 21.76% 14.19% 64.05%-2.15 -41.2 0
1938-10-23 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 4-036.6 1574 1340 64.05% 14.19% 21.76%+2.15 +41.2 8
1938-10-23 SV Amateure Fiat W 2-153.9 1519 1542 48.68% 14.30% 37.02%+0.22 +17.5 7
1938-10-23 @ Wacker Wien L 1-253.9 1542 1519 37.02% 14.30% 48.68%-0.22 -17.5 6
1938-10-23 Grazer SC W 2-154.4 1672 1571 63.67% 14.24% 22.09%+1.61 +11.0 10
1938-10-23 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-254.4 1571 1672 22.09% 14.24% 63.67%-1.61 -11.0 6
1938-10-30 Wiener Sport-Club D 0-068.8 1615 1683 42.31% 14.30% 43.39%-0.29 +0.1 9
1938-10-30 @ Admira Wien D 0-068.8 1683 1615 43.39% 14.30% 42.31%+0.29 -0.1 11
1938-10-30 First Vienna D 2-265.5 1519 1460 59.13% 14.27% 26.61%+1.14 -2.8 7
1938-10-30 @ Austria Wien D 2-265.5 1460 1519 26.61% 14.27% 59.13%-1.14 +2.8 7
1938-10-30 Wacker Wien L 2-463.0 1560 1536 54.89% 14.29% 30.82%+0.75 -38.4 6
1938-10-30 @ Grazer SC W 4-263.0 1536 1560 30.82% 14.29% 54.89%-0.75 +38.4 9
1938-10-30 Reichsbahn Wacker W 2-038.8 1680 1343 79.38% 13.88% 6.74%+4.26 +7.2 7
1938-10-30 @ Rapid Wien L 0-238.8 1343 1680 6.74% 13.88% 79.38%-4.26 -7.2 2
1938-10-30 SK Amateure Steyr W 9-234.4 1525 1298 73.89% 14.09% 12.02%+3.02 +27.2 8
1938-10-30 @ SV Amateure Fiat L 2-934.4 1298 1525 12.02% 14.09% 73.89%-3.02 -27.2 0
1938-11-01 SK Amateure Steyr W 4-347.4 1687 1271 81.91% 13.70% 4.40%+5.14 +2.2 9
1938-11-01 @ Rapid Wien L 3-447.4 1271 1687 4.40% 13.70% 81.91%-5.14 -2.2 0
1938-11-01 Admira Wien L 0-635.5 1336 1615 17.61% 14.14% 68.26%-2.65 -49.6 2
1938-11-01 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 6-035.5 1615 1336 68.26% 14.14% 17.61%+2.65 +49.6 11
1938-11-13 Grazer SC W 2-049.2 1269 1522 19.94% 14.17% 65.88%-2.36 +59.2 2
1938-11-13 @ SK Amateure Steyr L 0-249.2 1522 1269 65.88% 14.17% 19.94%+2.36 -59.2 6
1938-11-13 Austria Wien L 0-452.6 1552 1516 56.41% 14.28% 29.31%+0.88 -96.5 8
1938-11-13 @ SV Amateure Fiat W 4-052.6 1516 1552 29.31% 14.28% 56.41%-0.88 +96.5 9
1938-11-13 Rapid Wien W 4-370.3 1575 1689 35.92% 14.28% 49.80%-0.80 +21.0 11
1938-11-13 @ Wacker Wien L 3-470.3 1689 1575 49.80% 14.28% 35.92%+0.80 -21.0 9
1938-11-13 First Vienna L 3-573.4 1683 1462 73.53% 14.10% 12.37%+2.96 -48.6 11
1938-11-13 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-373.4 1462 1683 12.37% 14.10% 73.53%-2.96 +48.6 9
1938-11-20 Admira Wien L 1-261.7 1612 1665 44.63% 14.30% 41.07%-0.11 -20.5 9
1938-11-20 @ Austria Wien W 2-161.7 1665 1612 41.07% 14.30% 44.63%+0.11 +20.5 13
1938-11-20 Reichsbahn Wacker W 3-031.6 1511 1286 73.79% 14.09% 12.12%+3.00 +18.3 11
1938-11-20 @ First Vienna L 0-331.6 1286 1511 12.12% 14.09% 73.79%-3.00 -18.3 2
1938-11-20 Rapid Wien L 2-652.2 1463 1668 24.73% 14.22% 61.05%-1.83 -32.8 6
1938-11-20 @ Grazer SC W 6-252.2 1668 1463 61.05% 14.22% 24.73%+1.83 +32.7 11
1938-11-20 SK Amateure Steyr W 7-032.1 1596 1328 76.25% 14.02% 9.73%+3.48 +32.8 13
1938-11-20 @ Wacker Wien L 0-732.1 1328 1596 9.73% 14.02% 76.25%-3.48 -32.8 2
1938-11-20 SV Amateure Fiat W 3-147.1 1635 1455 70.60% 14.16% 15.25%+2.49 +13.5 13
1938-11-20 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-347.1 1455 1635 15.25% 14.16% 70.60%-2.49 -13.5 8
1938-11-27 SK Amateure Steyr W 4-136.5 1592 1295 77.67% 13.97% 8.36%+3.80 +10.8 11
1938-11-27 @ Austria Wien L 1-436.5 1295 1592 8.36% 13.97% 77.67%-3.80 -10.8 2
1938-11-27 Admira Wien L 2-354.8 1442 1685 20.86% 14.18% 64.96%-2.25 -9.9 8
1938-11-27 @ SV Amateure Fiat W 3-254.8 1685 1442 64.96% 14.18% 20.86%+2.25 +9.9 15
1938-11-27 Reichsbahn Wacker W 6-134.0 1629 1268 80.24% 13.83% 5.93%+4.53 +12.2 15
1938-11-27 @ Wacker Wien L 1-634.0 1268 1629 5.93% 13.83% 80.24%-4.53 -12.2 2
1938-12-04 Wiener Sport-Club W 7-255.7 1701 1648 58.40% 14.27% 27.33%+1.07 +43.3 13
1938-12-04 @ Rapid Wien L 2-755.7 1648 1701 27.33% 14.27% 58.40%-1.07 -43.3 13
1938-12-04 Grazer SC W 3-148.3 1256 1430 28.28% 14.25% 57.47%-1.48 +44.8 4
1938-12-04 @ Reichsbahn Wacker L 1-348.3 1430 1256 57.47% 14.25% 28.28%+1.48 -44.8 6
1938-12-04 SV Amateure Fiat L 2-641.9 1285 1432 31.58% 14.27% 54.15%-1.18 -40.8 2
1938-12-04 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 6-241.9 1432 1285 54.15% 14.27% 31.58%+1.18 +40.8 10
1938-12-11 Austria Wien L 2-646.8 1385 1603 23.44% 14.21% 62.35%-1.96 -31.2 6
1938-12-11 @ Grazer SC W 6-246.8 1603 1385 62.35% 14.21% 23.44%+1.96 +31.2 13
1938-12-11 First Vienna L 0-138.8 1300 1529 22.27% 14.20% 63.53%-2.09 -11.8 4
1938-12-11 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 1-038.8 1529 1300 63.53% 14.20% 22.27%+2.09 +11.8 13
1938-12-11 Wacker Wien L 2-441.8 1244 1641 9.75% 13.94% 76.31%-3.97 -7.9 2
1938-12-11 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 4-241.8 1641 1244 76.31% 13.94% 9.75%+3.97 +7.9 17
1938-12-18 First Vienna L 1-244.8 1354 1541 26.77% 14.24% 58.99%-1.62 -13.1 6
1938-12-18 @ Grazer SC W 2-144.8 1541 1354 58.99% 14.24% 26.77%+1.62 +13.1 15
1938-12-26 Grazer SC W 2-142.4 1649 1341 78.19% 13.94% 7.86%+3.93 +4.1 19
1938-12-26 @ Wacker Wien L 1-242.4 1341 1649 7.86% 13.94% 78.19%-3.93 -4.2 6
1938-12-31 Reichsbahn Wacker FW52.4 1473 1289 70.98% 14.15% 14.87%+2.55 +0.0 12
1938-12-31 @ SV Amateure Fiat FL52.4 1289 1473 14.87% 14.15% 70.98%-2.55 +0.0 4
1939-01-08 First Vienna D 3-377.4 1695 1554 67.46% 14.20% 18.34%+2.06 -3.6 16
1939-01-08 @ Admira Wien D 3-377.4 1554 1695 18.34% 14.20% 67.46%-2.06 +3.6 16
1939-01-08 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-051.9 1653 1605 57.84% 14.27% 27.89%+1.02 +27.2 21
1939-01-08 @ Wacker Wien L 0-251.9 1605 1653 27.89% 14.27% 57.84%-1.02 -27.2 13
1939-01-15 SK Amateure Steyr L 2-451.2 1289 1236 58.39% 14.27% 27.34%+1.07 -40.7 4
1939-01-15 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 4-251.2 1236 1289 27.34% 14.27% 58.39%-1.07 +40.7 4
1939-01-22 Rapid Wien W 2-165.8 1578 1744 29.20% 14.25% 56.54%-1.39 +25.5 15
1939-01-22 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-265.8 1744 1578 56.54% 14.25% 29.20%+1.39 -25.5 13
1939-01-22 Wacker Wien L 3-662.1 1558 1680 34.85% 14.28% 50.87%-0.89 -32.5 16
1939-01-22 @ First Vienna W 6-362.1 1680 1558 50.87% 14.28% 34.85%+0.89 +32.5 23
1939-01-29 Wiener Sport-Club D 3-377.2 1634 1603 55.75% 14.28% 29.97%+0.82 -1.8 14
1939-01-29 @ Austria Wien D 3-377.2 1603 1634 29.97% 14.28% 55.75%-0.82 +1.8 16
1939-01-29 SV Amateure Fiat W 3-253.5 1719 1473 75.06% 14.06% 10.88%+3.24 +5.4 15
1939-01-29 @ Rapid Wien L 2-353.5 1473 1719 10.88% 14.06% 75.06%-3.24 -5.4 12
1939-02-05 Grazer SC W 8-035.1 1691 1337 80.04% 13.84% 6.12%+4.46 +23.7 18
1939-02-05 @ Admira Wien L 0-835.1 1337 1691 6.12% 13.84% 80.04%-4.46 -23.7 6
1939-02-05 SV Amateure Fiat D 4-476.9 1632 1467 69.46% 14.17% 16.37%+2.33 -3.4 15
1939-02-05 @ Austria Wien D 4-476.9 1467 1632 16.37% 14.17% 69.46%-2.33 +3.4 13
1939-02-05 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-261.1 1525 1605 40.72% 14.30% 44.98%-0.41 +32.0 18
1939-02-05 @ First Vienna L 2-461.1 1605 1525 44.98% 14.30% 40.72%+0.41 -32.0 16
1939-02-05 Wacker Wien D 0-070.0 1724 1713 53.32% 14.29% 32.38%+0.61 -2.6 16
1939-02-05 @ Rapid Wien D 0-070.0 1713 1724 32.38% 14.29% 53.32%-0.61 +2.6 24
1939-02-12 SK Amateure Steyr W 4-033.9 1715 1277 82.48% 13.64% 3.88%+5.40 +7.9 20
1939-02-12 @ Admira Wien L 0-433.9 1277 1715 3.88% 13.64% 82.48%-5.40 -7.9 4
1939-02-12 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-159.0 1313 1573 19.29% 14.16% 66.55%-2.44 +5.5 7
1939-02-12 @ Grazer SC D 1-159.0 1573 1313 66.55% 14.16% 19.29%+2.44 -5.5 17
1939-02-12 First Vienna W 3-152.0 1721 1557 69.43% 14.17% 16.39%+2.32 +14.5 18
1939-02-12 @ Rapid Wien L 1-352.0 1557 1721 16.39% 14.17% 69.43%-2.32 -14.5 18
1939-02-12 Austria Wien L 1-535.7 1248 1629 10.61% 13.97% 75.42%-3.79 -17.5 4
1939-02-12 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 5-135.7 1629 1248 75.42% 13.97% 10.61%+3.79 +17.5 17
1939-02-12 Wacker Wien W 2-166.1 1471 1715 20.74% 14.18% 65.07%-2.26 +29.2 15
1939-02-12 @ SV Amateure Fiat L 1-266.1 1715 1471 65.07% 14.18% 20.74%+2.26 -29.2 24
1939-02-19 Wacker Wien L 2-564.1 1646 1686 46.39% 14.30% 39.31%+0.03 -45.0 17
1939-02-19 @ Austria Wien W 5-264.1 1686 1646 39.31% 14.30% 46.39%-0.03 +45.1 26
1939-02-19 Admira Wien D 0-070.2 1736 1723 53.50% 14.29% 32.21%+0.62 -2.7 19
1939-02-19 @ Rapid Wien D 0-070.2 1723 1736 32.21% 14.29% 53.50%-0.62 +2.7 21
1939-02-19 SK Amateure Steyr W 5-133.9 1567 1269 77.77% 13.96% 8.27%+3.83 +13.8 19
1939-02-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-533.9 1269 1567 8.27% 13.96% 77.77%-3.83 -13.8 4
1939-02-26 Rapid Wien L 1-340.6 1255 1733 6.34% 13.76% 79.91%-4.89 -5.8 4
1939-02-26 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 3-140.6 1733 1255 79.91% 13.76% 6.34%+4.89 +5.8 21
1939-02-26 SV Amateure Fiat W 4-148.3 1543 1500 57.20% 14.28% 28.52%+0.96 +34.0 20
1939-02-26 @ First Vienna L 1-448.3 1500 1543 28.52% 14.28% 57.20%-0.96 -34.0 15
1939-02-26 Reichsbahn Wacker W 10-032.0 1726 1230 83.68% 13.48% 2.84%+6.04 +13.7 23
1939-02-26 @ Admira Wien L 0-1032.0 1230 1726 2.84% 13.48% 83.68%-6.04 -13.7 4
1939-03-05 First Vienna L 0-530.8 1249 1577 13.89% 14.06% 72.04%-3.20 -33.5 4
1939-03-05 @ SK Amateure Steyr W 5-030.8 1577 1249 72.04% 14.06% 13.89%+3.20 +33.5 22
1939-03-05 Austria Wien W 3-153.4 1739 1601 67.24% 14.20% 18.56%+2.03 +16.3 25
1939-03-05 @ Admira Wien L 1-353.4 1601 1739 18.56% 14.20% 67.24%-2.03 -16.3 17
1939-03-05 Grazer SC W 3-037.7 1739 1318 82.04% 13.69% 4.28%+5.20 +6.6 23
1939-03-05 @ Rapid Wien L 0-337.7 1318 1739 4.28% 13.69% 82.04%-5.20 -6.6 7
1939-03-05 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-450.6 1466 1581 35.82% 14.28% 49.90%-0.81 -41.6 15
1939-03-05 @ SV Amateure Fiat W 4-150.6 1581 1466 49.90% 14.28% 35.82%+0.81 +41.6 21
1939-03-12 Austria Wien L 2-366.9 1610 1585 55.09% 14.29% 30.62%+0.76 -23.6 22
1939-03-12 @ First Vienna W 3-266.9 1585 1610 30.62% 14.29% 55.09%-0.76 +23.6 19
1939-03-12 Rapid Wien L 1-1334.1 1217 1746 4.81% 13.63% 81.56%-5.46 -22.6 4
1939-03-12 @ Reichsbahn Wacker W 13-134.1 1746 1217 81.56% 13.63% 4.81%+5.46 +22.6 25
1939-03-12 Admira Wien D 1-171.9 1623 1756 33.42% 14.28% 52.30%-1.01 +2.1 22
1939-03-12 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-171.9 1756 1623 52.30% 14.28% 33.42%+1.01 -2.1 26
1939-03-12 SK Amateure Steyr W 4-135.4 1312 1216 63.16% 14.24% 22.59%+1.56 +27.6 9
1939-03-12 @ Grazer SC L 1-435.4 1216 1312 22.59% 14.24% 63.16%-1.56 -27.6 4
1939-03-19 Rapid Wien W 4-058.8 1608 1768 30.00% 14.26% 55.74%-1.32 +95.3 21
1939-03-19 @ Austria Wien L 0-458.8 1768 1608 55.74% 14.26% 30.00%+1.32 -95.3 25
1939-03-19 SV Amateure Fiat W 5-353.0 1339 1424 39.94% 14.29% 45.76%-0.48 +30.7 11
1939-03-19 @ Grazer SC L 3-553.0 1424 1339 45.76% 14.29% 39.94%+0.48 -30.7 15
1939-03-19 Admira Wien L 2-467.2 1731 1754 48.78% 14.30% 36.93%+0.22 -34.4 26
1939-03-19 @ Wacker Wien W 4-267.2 1754 1731 36.93% 14.30% 48.78%-0.22 +34.4 28
1939-03-26 Reichsbahn Wacker W 12-028.7 1625 1194 82.29% 13.66% 4.05%+5.31 +23.3 24
1939-03-26 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-1228.7 1194 1625 4.05% 13.66% 82.29%-5.31 -23.3 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1938-11-13 12.37% First Vienna 1462 5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1683 3
2 1938-11-13 19.94% @ SK Amateure Steyr 1269 2 Grazer SC 1522 0
3 1939-02-12 20.74% @ SV Amateure Fiat 1471 2 Wacker Wien 1715 1
4 1938-09-25 23.37% SV Amateure Fiat 1540 4 @ Admira Wien 1629 3
5 1939-01-15 27.34% SK Amateure Steyr 1236 4 @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1289 2
6 1938-12-04 28.28% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1256 3 Grazer SC 1430 1
7 1939-01-22 29.20% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1578 2 Rapid Wien 1744 1
8 1938-11-13 29.31% Austria Wien 1516 4 @ SV Amateure Fiat 1552 0
9 1939-03-19 30.00% @ Austria Wien 1608 4 Rapid Wien 1768 0
10 1939-03-12 30.62% Austria Wien 1585 3 @ First Vienna 1610 2
11 1938-10-30 30.82% Wacker Wien 1536 4 @ Grazer SC 1560 2
12 1938-10-16 31.80% Grazer SC 1549 4 @ SV Amateure Fiat 1565 3
13 1938-10-09 33.30% Reichsbahn Wacker 1399 3 @ SK Amateure Steyr 1403 2
14 1938-08-28 33.89% SV Amateure Fiat 1507 4 @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1507 2
15 1938-08-28 34.97% Admira Wien 1531 4 @ First Vienna 1523 1
16 1938-09-11 35.09% Wiener Sport-Club 1516 2 @ SK Amateure Steyr 1507 0
17 1938-11-13 35.92% @ Wacker Wien 1575 4 Rapid Wien 1689 3
18 1939-03-19 36.93% Admira Wien 1754 4 @ Wacker Wien 1731 2
19 1938-10-09 38.19% @ Grazer SC 1505 2 Admira Wien 1603 0
20 1939-02-19 39.31% Wacker Wien 1686 5 @ Austria Wien 1646 2
21 1939-03-19 39.94% @ Grazer SC 1339 5 SV Amateure Fiat 1424 3
22 1939-02-05 40.72% @ First Vienna 1525 4 Wiener Sport-Club 1605 2
23 1938-11-20 41.07% Admira Wien 1665 2 @ Austria Wien 1612 1
24 1938-09-18 41.69% Wacker Wien 1496 2 @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1439 0
25 1938-09-18 42.22% Austria Wien 1522 3 @ SK Amateure Steyr 1461 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-11-13 96.45 Austria Wien 4 1516 29.31% @ SV Amateure Fiat 0 1552 56.41% 14.28%
2 1939-03-19 95.34 @ Austria Wien 4 1608 30.00% Rapid Wien 0 1768 55.74% 14.26%
3 1938-10-23 73.31 Rapid Wien 4 1606 44.11% @ First Vienna 0 1533 41.59% 14.30%
4 1938-10-09 62.09 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1576 51.36% Austria Wien 0 1580 34.35% 14.29%
5 1938-11-13 59.22 @ SK Amateure Steyr 2 1269 19.94% Grazer SC 0 1522 65.88% 14.17%
6 1938-09-18 58.31 Austria Wien 3 1522 42.22% @ SK Amateure Steyr 0 1461 43.48% 14.30%
7 1938-08-28 56.38 Admira Wien 4 1531 34.97% @ First Vienna 1 1523 50.73% 14.30%
8 1938-11-01 49.64 Admira Wien 6 1615 68.26% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1336 17.61% 14.14%
9 1938-11-13 48.64 First Vienna 5 1462 12.37% @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1683 73.53% 14.10%
10 1938-09-11 45.94 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1516 35.09% @ SK Amateure Steyr 0 1507 50.61% 14.30%
11 1939-02-19 45.06 Wacker Wien 5 1686 39.31% @ Austria Wien 2 1646 46.39% 14.30%
12 1938-12-04 44.81 @ Reichsbahn Wacker 3 1256 28.28% Grazer SC 1 1430 57.47% 14.25%
13 1938-10-22 44.29 @ Austria Wien 8 1474 62.23% Reichsbahn Wacker 2 1387 23.52% 14.25%
14 1938-10-16 43.49 @ Rapid Wien 5 1563 57.50% Austria Wien 1 1518 28.23% 14.28%
15 1938-10-09 43.39 @ Grazer SC 2 1505 38.19% Admira Wien 0 1603 47.52% 14.29%
16 1938-12-04 43.30 @ Rapid Wien 7 1701 58.40% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1648 27.33% 14.27%
17 1938-09-11 41.77 @ Admira Wien 4 1587 49.70% Rapid Wien 1 1603 36.01% 14.30%
18 1939-03-05 41.57 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1581 49.90% @ SV Amateure Fiat 1 1466 35.82% 14.28%
19 1938-10-23 41.23 Admira Wien 4 1574 64.05% @ SK Amateure Steyr 0 1340 21.76% 14.19%
20 1938-10-16 40.84 @ First Vienna 6 1492 64.73% SK Amateure Steyr 1 1380 21.04% 14.23%
21 1938-12-04 40.77 SV Amateure Fiat 6 1432 54.15% @ SK Amateure Steyr 2 1285 31.58% 14.27%
22 1939-01-15 40.71 SK Amateure Steyr 4 1236 27.34% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 2 1289 58.39% 14.27%
23 1938-09-18 40.57 Wacker Wien 2 1496 41.69% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1439 44.02% 14.30%
24 1938-10-30 38.37 Wacker Wien 4 1536 30.82% @ Grazer SC 2 1560 54.89% 14.29%
25 1938-08-28 36.36 SV Amateure Fiat 4 1507 33.89% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 2 1507 51.82% 14.29%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-01-08 77.4 @ Admira Wien 3 1695 67.46% First Vienna 3 1554 18.34% 14.20%
2 1939-01-29 77.2 @ Austria Wien 3 1634 55.75% Wiener Sport-Club 3 1603 29.97% 14.28%
3 1939-02-05 76.9 @ Austria Wien 4 1632 69.46% SV Amateure Fiat 4 1467 16.37% 14.17%
4 1938-11-13 73.4 First Vienna 5 1462 12.37% @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1683 73.53% 14.10%
5 1938-09-25 72.1 SV Amateure Fiat 4 1540 23.37% @ Admira Wien 3 1629 62.38% 14.25%
6 1939-03-12 71.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1623 33.42% Admira Wien 1 1756 52.30% 14.28%
7 1938-10-09 70.7 @ SV Amateure Fiat 2 1566 52.48% Rapid Wien 2 1561 33.22% 14.29%
8 1938-11-13 70.3 @ Wacker Wien 4 1575 35.92% Rapid Wien 3 1689 49.80% 14.28%
9 1939-02-19 70.2 @ Rapid Wien 0 1736 53.50% Admira Wien 0 1723 32.21% 14.29%
10 1939-02-05 70.0 @ Rapid Wien 0 1724 53.32% Wacker Wien 0 1713 32.38% 14.29%
11 1938-10-30 68.8 @ Admira Wien 0 1615 42.31% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1683 43.39% 14.30%
12 1938-10-16 68.0 Grazer SC 4 1549 31.80% @ SV Amateure Fiat 3 1565 53.91% 14.29%
13 1939-03-19 67.2 Admira Wien 4 1754 36.93% @ Wacker Wien 2 1731 48.78% 14.30%
14 1939-03-12 66.9 Austria Wien 3 1585 30.62% @ First Vienna 2 1610 55.09% 14.29%
15 1938-09-10 66.7 @ SV Amateure Fiat 2 1544 61.18% First Vienna 2 1466 24.57% 14.26%
16 1939-02-12 66.1 @ SV Amateure Fiat 2 1471 20.74% Wacker Wien 1 1715 65.07% 14.18%
17 1939-01-22 65.8 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1578 29.20% Rapid Wien 1 1744 56.54% 14.25%
18 1938-10-30 65.5 @ Austria Wien 2 1519 59.13% First Vienna 2 1460 26.61% 14.27%
19 1939-02-19 64.1 Wacker Wien 5 1686 39.31% @ Austria Wien 2 1646 46.39% 14.30%
20 1938-10-09 64.0 @ Wacker Wien 1 1536 57.79% First Vienna 1 1489 27.93% 14.27%
21 1938-10-30 63.0 Wacker Wien 4 1536 30.82% @ Grazer SC 2 1560 54.89% 14.29%
22 1939-01-22 62.1 Wacker Wien 6 1680 50.87% @ First Vienna 3 1558 34.85% 14.28%
23 1938-11-20 61.7 Admira Wien 2 1665 41.07% @ Austria Wien 1 1612 44.63% 14.30%
24 1939-02-05 61.1 @ First Vienna 4 1525 40.72% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1605 44.98% 14.30%
25 1938-08-28 59.2 SV Amateure Fiat 4 1507 33.89% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 2 1507 51.82% 14.29%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-03-26 28.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 12 1625 82.29% Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1194 4.05% 13.66%
2 1939-03-05 30.8 First Vienna 5 1577 72.04% @ SK Amateure Steyr 0 1249 13.89% 14.06%
3 1938-11-20 31.6 @ First Vienna 3 1511 73.79% Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1286 12.12% 14.09%
4 1939-02-26 32.0 @ Admira Wien 10 1726 83.68% Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1230 2.84% 13.48%
5 1938-11-20 32.1 @ Wacker Wien 7 1596 76.25% SK Amateure Steyr 0 1328 9.73% 14.02%
6 1939-02-12 33.9 @ Admira Wien 4 1715 82.48% SK Amateure Steyr 0 1277 3.88% 13.64%
7 1939-02-19 33.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1567 77.77% SK Amateure Steyr 1 1269 8.27% 13.96%
8 1938-11-27 34.0 @ Wacker Wien 6 1629 80.24% Reichsbahn Wacker 1 1268 5.93% 13.83%
9 1939-03-12 34.1 Rapid Wien 13 1746 81.56% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1 1217 4.81% 13.63%
10 1938-10-30 34.4 @ SV Amateure Fiat 9 1525 73.89% SK Amateure Steyr 2 1298 12.02% 14.09%
11 1939-02-05 35.1 @ Admira Wien 8 1691 80.04% Grazer SC 0 1337 6.12% 13.84%
12 1939-03-12 35.4 @ Grazer SC 4 1312 63.16% SK Amateure Steyr 1 1216 22.59% 14.24%
13 1938-11-01 35.5 Admira Wien 6 1615 68.26% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1336 17.61% 14.14%
14 1939-02-12 35.7 Austria Wien 5 1629 75.42% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 1 1248 10.61% 13.97%
15 1938-11-27 36.5 @ Austria Wien 4 1592 77.67% SK Amateure Steyr 1 1295 8.36% 13.97%
16 1938-10-23 36.6 Admira Wien 4 1574 64.05% @ SK Amateure Steyr 0 1340 21.76% 14.19%
17 1939-03-05 37.7 @ Rapid Wien 3 1739 82.04% Grazer SC 0 1318 4.28% 13.69%
18 1938-10-16 37.9 @ First Vienna 6 1492 64.73% SK Amateure Steyr 1 1380 21.04% 14.23%
19 1938-10-30 38.8 @ Rapid Wien 2 1680 79.38% Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1343 6.74% 13.88%
20 1938-12-11 38.8 First Vienna 1 1529 63.53% @ Reichsbahn Wacker 0 1300 22.27% 14.20%
21 1938-10-22 39.9 @ Austria Wien 8 1474 62.23% Reichsbahn Wacker 2 1387 23.52% 14.25%
22 1939-02-26 40.6 Rapid Wien 3 1733 79.91% @ SK Amateure Steyr 1 1255 6.34% 13.76%
23 1938-12-11 41.8 Wacker Wien 4 1641 76.31% @ SK Amateure Steyr 2 1244 9.75% 13.94%
24 1938-12-04 41.9 SV Amateure Fiat 6 1432 54.15% @ SK Amateure Steyr 2 1285 31.58% 14.27%
25 1938-12-26 42.4 @ Wacker Wien 2 1649 78.19% Grazer SC 1 1341 7.86% 13.94%