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1937-38 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rapid Wien

7.11 points above expected

30 points · 22.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

1. Simmeringer SC

7.02 points below expected

5 points · 12.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 14 2 2 30 59 19 +40 22.89 +7.11
2 Wiener Sport-Club 18 9 5 4 23 43 29 +14 18.62 +4.38
3 Austria Wien 18 8 5 5 21 35 29 +6 21.55 -0.55
4 Wacker Wien 18 8 4 6 20 44 33 +11 17.85 +2.15
5 First Vienna 18 6 7 5 19 41 30 +11 20.24 -1.24
6 Admira Wien 18 6 7 5 19 37 34 +3 22.29 -3.29
7 FC Wien 18 7 3 8 17 40 41 -1 15.62 +1.38
8 Floridsdorfer 18 5 4 9 14 32 32 0 16.91 -2.91
9 Favoritner AC 18 4 4 10 12 29 62 -33 12.02 -0.02
10 1. Simmeringer SC 18 2 1 15 5 30 81 -51 12.02 -7.02

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 30 22.89 +7.11
2 Wiener Sport-Club 23 18.62 +4.38
3 Wacker Wien 20 17.85 +2.15
4 FC Wien 17 15.62 +1.38
5 Favoritner AC 12 12.02 -0.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 1. Simmeringer SC 5 12.02 -7.02
2 Admira Wien 19 22.29 -3.29
3 Floridsdorfer 14 16.91 -2.91
4 First Vienna 19 20.24 -1.24
5 Austria Wien 21 21.55 -0.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Wien 7 Oct 31 – Mar 20 1 in 102
2 FC Wien 3 Oct 31 – Nov 14 1 in 52
3 Austria Wien 5 Aug 29 – Oct 3 1 in 45
4 Wacker Wien 3 Oct 31 – Nov 14 1 in 12
5 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Mar 26 – May 8 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 1. Simmeringer SC 13 Sep 26 – May 4 1 in 1,764
2 Austria Wien 3 Oct 31 – Nov 14 1 in 61
3 Admira Wien 2 Sep 5 – Sep 21 1 in 18
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Feb 20 – Mar 20 1 in 13
5 First Vienna 2 Nov 14 – Feb 13 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Wien 7 Oct 31 – Mar 20 1 in 73
2 Favoritner AC 4 Feb 20 – Mar 26 1 in 48
3 Rapid Wien 11 Sep 22 – Mar 20 1 in 30
4 Wiener Sport-Club 8 Feb 13 – May 15 1 in 23
5 Wacker Wien 5 Oct 3 – Nov 14 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Admira Wien 6 Nov 7 – Mar 20 1 in 99
2 First Vienna 6 Nov 14 – Mar 26 1 in 36
3 1. Simmeringer SC 13 Sep 26 – May 4 1 in 18
4 Austria Wien 4 Oct 17 – Nov 14 1 in 15
5 Floridsdorfer 4 Apr 6 – Jun 16 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1678 30 +13 7 6.9 +0.1
Wiener Sport-Club 1535 23 +20 7 5.5 +1.5
Austria Wien 1552 21 +1 6 6.6 -0.6
Wacker Wien 1494 20 -4 5 4.6 +0.4
First Vienna 1544 19 +27 7 5.4 +1.6
Admira Wien 1559 19 -6 7 5.7 +1.3
FC Wien 1480 17 -8 2 4.6 -2.6
Floridsdorfer 1456 14 -6 4 4.6 -0.6
Favoritner AC 1326 12 -14 3 3.5 -0.5
1. Simmeringer SC 1262 5 -23 2 2.6 -0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS AW AW FW FA FV FLO RW WW WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
0-0-2
1.47
0-0-2
1.40
0-0-2
2.15
2-0-0
2.49
0-0-2
1.61
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
1.87
Admira Wien
2-0-0
4.07
 —
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
3.81
0-2-0
4.36
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
2.40
0-1-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.30
Austria Wien
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
2.56
 —
0-1-1
3.94
2-0-0
3.97
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.53
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
3.47
0-1-1
3.21
FC Wien
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
1.58
 —
0-0-2
3.48
0-1-1
2.20
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.89
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.42
Favoritner AC
0-0-2
3.02
0-2-0
1.19
0-0-2
1.56
2-0-0
2.04
 —
0-1-1
1.39
1-1-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
1.45
0-0-2
1.75
First Vienna
2-0-0
3.91
1-1-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.45
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
4.14
 —
1-1-0
3.23
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
3.20
0-1-1
2.95
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-1
1.86
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
3.05
0-1-1
3.44
0-1-1
2.28
 —
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.60
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
4.50
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-0
3.18
2-0-0
3.48
 —
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.53
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
1.89
1-0-1
2.04
0-0-2
3.23
1-0-1
4.08
2-0-0
2.30
0-1-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.02
 —
1-1-0
2.42
Wiener Sport-Club
1-1-0
3.65
0-1-1
2.21
1-1-0
2.30
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.77
1-1-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.08
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +6.6
Allowed 0.80 -3.3
Differential 0.92 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%2.22%4.44%3.33%1.67%2.22%16.11%
12.22%10.00%6.11%1.67%1.11%1.11%22.22%
24.44%6.11%5.56%5.00%2.22%5.00%28.33%
33.33%1.67%5.00%5.56%0.56%1.67%17.78%
41.67%1.11%2.22%0.56%——5.56%
5+2.22%1.11%5.00%1.67%——10.00%
Total16.11%22.22%28.33%17.78%5.56%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 2.17 +0.00
SD 1.80 1.80 2.65
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
1————5.56%11.11%16.67%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%33.33%
3———5.56%—11.11%16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—5.56%16.67%11.11%16.67%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 4.50 -2.83
SD 1.53 2.20 2.71
CV 0.92 0.49 —
Max 6 9 +4
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——11.11%——22.22%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%27.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.89 +0.17
SD 2.04 1.28 2.01
CV 0.99 0.68 —
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
1—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
216.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.61 +0.33
SD 1.11 1.20 1.57
CV 0.57 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%33.33%
3——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%5.56%27.78%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.28 -0.06
SD 1.63 1.93 2.67
CV 0.73 0.85 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
1—22.22%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
2———5.56%—22.22%27.78%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%16.67%16.67%11.11%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 3.44 -1.83
SD 1.14 2.57 2.90
CV 0.71 0.75 —
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
1—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—11.11%———16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%44.44%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.67 +0.61
SD 2.16 0.91 2.38
CV 0.95 0.54 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
1—11.11%22.22%———33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%44.44%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.78 +0.00
SD 1.40 0.94 2.00
CV 0.79 0.53 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——11.11%———11.11%
216.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
316.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
4———————
5+5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.28 1.06 +2.22
SD 2.02 1.06 2.21
CV 0.62 1.00 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.83 +0.61
SD 2.57 1.15 2.70
CV 1.05 0.63 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
3——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.61 +0.78
SD 1.61 1.20 1.96
CV 0.68 0.74 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1678 30 22.89 +7.11 99.6% 10 17 21 23 25 28 32
Admira Wien 1559 19 22.29 -3.29 20.3% 13 17 20 22 25 28 32
Austria Wien 1552 21 21.55 -0.55 48.2% 11 16 19 22 24 27 32
First Vienna 1544 19 20.24 -1.24 41.9% 8 15 18 20 23 26 29
Wiener Sport-Club 1535 23 18.62 +4.38 91.5% 8 13 16 19 21 24 30
Wacker Wien 1494 20 17.85 +2.15 77.9% 7 12 15 18 20 23 29
FC Wien 1480 17 15.62 +1.38 69.2% 5 10 13 16 18 21 28
Floridsdorfer 1456 14 16.91 -2.91 25.4% 6 11 14 17 19 23 29
Favoritner AC 1326 12 12.02 -0.02 57.8% 2 7 10 12 14 18 23
1. Simmeringer SC 1262 5 12.02 -7.02 1.6% 3 7 10 12 14 18 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.11%
No Edge
37.78%23.33%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -3.86 Elo pts.
93 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.02 goals
Neutral
-2-0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.130.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.74 * Some Luck: 2.74 to 4.12 * Lucky: 4.12 to 5.49 * Wild Swing: 5.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.83 points
Some Luck
03.439
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.30
Close
01.574
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.60%
Rapid Wien
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.60%
1. Simmeringer SC
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.58
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
62%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.76
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1840.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien36.30%22.90%15.50%10.80%6.90%4.70%1.70%0.90%0.20%0.10%
Wiener Sport-Club4.60%10.90%10.20%16.10%15.90%14.10%13.30%8.50%4.10%2.30%
Austria Wien17.00%20.20%18.70%13.60%12.50%8.90%6.10%2.30%0.60%0.10%
Wacker Wien4.10%6.60%7.50%12.60%15.90%17.10%15.30%10.90%7.20%2.80%
First Vienna12.40%14.00%16.40%15.00%13.30%12.20%9.00%5.50%1.60%0.60%
Admira Wien22.40%20.30%21.90%13.20%9.50%6.90%3.90%1.40%0.40%0.10%
FC Wien0.60%1.50%4.50%7.10%10.90%11.80%15.50%22.90%17.30%7.90%
Floridsdorfer2.60%3.10%4.90%9.80%11.70%17.30%18.60%17.50%10.40%4.10%
Favoritner AC—0.20%0.10%1.10%1.70%3.20%9.40%15.50%30.00%38.80%
1. Simmeringer SC—0.30%0.30%0.70%1.70%3.80%7.20%14.60%28.20%43.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rapid Wien 97.10% 2.90%
Admira Wien 94.20% 5.80%
Austria Wien 90.90% 9.10%
First Vienna 83.30% 16.70%
Wiener Sport-Club 71.80% 28.20%
Wacker Wien 63.80% 36.20%
Floridsdorfer 49.40% 50.60%
FC Wien 36.40% 63.60%
1. Simmeringer SC 6.80% 93.20%
Favoritner AC 6.30% 93.70%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1937-08-28 Wiener Sport-Club D 3-364.8 1438 1464 33.99% 24.72% 41.29%-0.32 +0.2 1
1937-08-28 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 3-364.8 1464 1438 41.29% 24.72% 33.99%+0.32 -0.2 1
1937-08-29 Favoritner AC W 3-251.8 1544 1406 55.09% 24.10% 20.82%+1.44 +5.1 2
1937-08-29 @ Austria Wien L 2-351.8 1406 1544 20.82% 24.10% 55.09%-1.44 -5.1 0
1937-08-29 First Vienna D 2-263.6 1449 1531 26.89% 24.52% 48.60%-0.91 +0.8 1
1937-08-29 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-263.6 1531 1449 48.60% 24.52% 26.89%+0.91 -0.8 1
1937-08-29 FC Wien W 5-040.7 1508 1449 45.70% 24.63% 29.67%+0.59 +33.5 2
1937-08-29 @ Rapid Wien L 0-540.7 1449 1508 29.67% 24.63% 45.70%-0.59 -33.5 0
1937-08-29 Admira Wien D 1-164.1 1478 1617 20.67% 24.08% 55.25%-1.54 +1.8 1
1937-08-29 @ Wacker Wien D 1-164.1 1617 1478 55.25% 24.08% 20.67%+1.54 -1.8 1
1937-09-04 Floridsdorfer W 3-255.9 1401 1450 30.83% 24.66% 44.50%-0.57 +9.3 2
1937-09-04 @ Favoritner AC L 2-355.9 1450 1401 44.50% 24.66% 30.83%+0.57 -9.3 1
1937-09-04 Wacker Wien W 1-050.4 1416 1480 28.97% 24.60% 46.42%-0.73 +10.8 2
1937-09-04 @ FC Wien L 0-150.4 1480 1416 46.42% 24.60% 28.97%+0.73 -10.8 1
1937-09-04 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-044.1 1530 1439 49.83% 24.46% 25.71%+0.94 +12.8 3
1937-09-04 @ First Vienna L 0-244.1 1439 1530 25.71% 24.46% 49.83%-0.94 -12.8 1
1937-09-05 Austria Wien L 1-360.9 1616 1549 46.78% 24.59% 28.63%+0.68 -17.8 1
1937-09-05 @ Admira Wien W 3-160.9 1549 1616 28.63% 24.59% 46.78%-0.68 +17.8 4
1937-09-05 Rapid Wien W 2-158.1 1464 1541 27.36% 24.54% 48.11%-0.87 +10.5 3
1937-09-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-258.1 1541 1464 48.11% 24.54% 27.36%+0.87 -10.5 2
1937-09-18 Favoritner AC W 6-246.2 1426 1410 39.87% 24.74% 35.39%+0.13 +22.1 3
1937-09-18 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 2-646.2 1410 1426 35.39% 24.74% 39.87%-0.13 -22.0 2
1937-09-21 Admira Wien W 3-053.7 1441 1598 19.02% 23.90% 57.07%-1.72 +35.6 3
1937-09-21 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-353.7 1598 1441 57.07% 23.90% 19.02%+1.72 -35.6 1
1937-09-22 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-451.2 1427 1475 31.04% 24.67% 44.29%-0.56 -11.5 2
1937-09-22 @ FC Wien W 4-251.2 1475 1427 44.29% 24.67% 31.04%+0.56 +11.5 5
1937-09-22 First Vienna W 2-052.2 1531 1543 35.93% 24.74% 39.32%-0.17 +17.8 4
1937-09-22 @ Rapid Wien L 0-252.2 1543 1531 39.32% 24.74% 35.93%+0.17 -17.8 3
1937-09-26 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-252.7 1562 1448 52.52% 24.29% 23.18%+1.19 +9.1 3
1937-09-26 @ Admira Wien L 2-452.7 1448 1562 23.18% 24.29% 52.52%-1.19 -9.1 3
1937-09-26 Floridsdorfer W 2-046.9 1566 1477 49.63% 24.47% 25.90%+0.92 +12.9 6
1937-09-26 @ Austria Wien L 0-246.9 1477 1566 25.90% 24.47% 49.63%-0.92 -12.9 3
1937-09-26 Rapid Wien L 0-338.4 1388 1549 18.68% 23.86% 57.45%-1.77 -14.2 2
1937-09-26 @ Favoritner AC W 3-038.4 1549 1388 57.45% 23.86% 18.68%+1.77 +14.2 6
1937-09-26 FC Wien D 3-366.2 1525 1415 52.01% 24.33% 23.66%+1.14 -0.9 4
1937-09-26 @ First Vienna D 3-366.2 1415 1525 23.66% 24.33% 52.01%-1.14 +0.9 3
1937-09-26 Wacker Wien L 1-253.9 1486 1469 40.03% 24.74% 35.23%+0.14 -9.0 5
1937-09-26 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-153.9 1469 1486 35.23% 24.74% 40.03%-0.14 +9.0 3
1937-09-29 Austria Wien L 2-357.0 1478 1579 24.63% 24.39% 50.98%-1.13 -5.9 3
1937-09-29 @ Wacker Wien W 3-257.0 1579 1478 50.98% 24.39% 24.63%+1.13 +5.9 8
1937-10-03 Austria Wien L 0-244.3 1439 1585 20.00% 24.01% 55.99%-1.61 -10.4 3
1937-10-03 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-044.3 1585 1439 55.99% 24.01% 20.00%+1.61 +10.4 10
1937-10-03 Favoritner AC L 3-457.7 1416 1374 43.51% 24.69% 31.80%+0.41 -8.9 3
1937-10-03 @ FC Wien W 4-357.7 1374 1416 31.80% 24.69% 43.51%-0.41 +8.9 4
1937-10-03 Admira Wien W 5-364.8 1563 1571 36.42% 24.75% 38.83%-0.13 +12.9 8
1937-10-03 @ Rapid Wien L 3-564.8 1571 1563 38.83% 24.75% 36.42%+0.13 -12.9 3
1937-10-03 Floridsdorfer D 1-158.1 1472 1464 38.86% 24.75% 36.39%+0.05 -0.1 4
1937-10-03 @ Wacker Wien D 1-158.1 1464 1472 36.39% 24.75% 38.86%-0.05 +0.1 4
1937-10-03 First Vienna D 3-368.3 1477 1524 31.15% 24.67% 44.18%-0.55 +0.4 6
1937-10-03 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 3-368.3 1524 1477 44.18% 24.67% 31.15%+0.55 -0.4 5
1937-10-17 FC Wien W 6-245.4 1558 1407 56.52% 23.96% 19.52%+1.58 +13.6 5
1937-10-17 @ Admira Wien L 2-645.4 1407 1558 19.52% 23.96% 56.52%-1.58 -13.6 3
1937-10-17 First Vienna D 1-164.7 1595 1524 47.39% 24.57% 28.05%+0.73 -1.0 11
1937-10-17 @ Austria Wien D 1-164.7 1524 1595 28.05% 24.57% 47.39%-0.73 +1.0 6
1937-10-17 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-436.7 1383 1477 25.35% 24.44% 50.21%-1.06 -24.0 4
1937-10-17 @ Favoritner AC W 4-036.7 1477 1383 50.21% 24.44% 25.35%+1.06 +24.0 8
1937-10-17 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-039.4 1464 1428 42.60% 24.70% 32.70%+0.34 +36.2 6
1937-10-17 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-539.4 1428 1464 32.70% 24.70% 42.60%-0.34 -36.2 3
1937-10-17 Wacker Wien D 3-370.1 1576 1472 51.28% 24.38% 24.34%+1.07 -0.8 9
1937-10-17 @ Rapid Wien D 3-370.1 1472 1576 24.34% 24.38% 51.28%-1.07 +0.8 5
1937-10-28 Favoritner AC W 7-035.2 1525 1359 57.96% 23.81% 18.23%+1.74 +30.8 8
1937-10-28 @ First Vienna L 0-735.2 1359 1525 18.23% 23.81% 57.96%-1.74 -30.8 4
1937-10-31 Austria Wien W 4-263.0 1393 1595 15.40% 23.38% 61.22%-2.20 +20.3 5
1937-10-31 @ FC Wien L 2-463.0 1595 1393 61.22% 23.38% 15.40%+2.20 -20.3 11
1937-10-31 Rapid Wien L 1-254.5 1500 1575 27.64% 24.55% 47.80%-0.85 -6.8 6
1937-10-31 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-154.5 1575 1500 47.80% 24.55% 27.64%+0.85 +6.8 11
1937-10-31 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-246.5 1473 1392 48.53% 24.52% 26.95%+0.83 +14.1 7
1937-10-31 @ Wacker Wien L 2-546.5 1392 1473 26.95% 24.52% 48.53%-0.83 -14.1 3
1937-10-31 Admira Wien L 2-456.5 1501 1572 28.17% 24.57% 47.26%-0.80 -10.6 8
1937-10-31 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-256.5 1572 1501 47.26% 24.57% 28.17%+0.80 +10.7 7
1937-11-07 FC Wien L 2-546.4 1378 1414 32.68% 24.70% 42.62%-0.42 -16.4 3
1937-11-07 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-246.4 1414 1378 42.62% 24.70% 32.68%+0.42 +16.4 7
1937-11-07 First Vienna L 2-364.8 1583 1555 41.48% 24.72% 33.79%+0.25 -8.8 7
1937-11-07 @ Admira Wien W 3-264.8 1555 1583 33.79% 24.72% 41.48%-0.25 +8.8 10
1937-11-07 Rapid Wien L 1-259.8 1574 1582 36.54% 24.75% 38.71%-0.12 -8.4 11
1937-11-07 @ Austria Wien W 2-159.8 1582 1574 38.71% 24.75% 36.54%+0.12 +8.4 13
1937-11-07 Wacker Wien L 2-937.3 1328 1487 18.83% 23.88% 57.29%-1.75 -21.4 4
1937-11-07 @ Favoritner AC W 9-237.3 1487 1328 57.29% 23.88% 18.83%+1.75 +21.4 9
1937-11-14 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-364.0 1566 1491 47.81% 24.55% 27.64%+0.76 -9.9 11
1937-11-14 @ Austria Wien W 3-264.0 1491 1566 27.64% 24.55% 47.81%-0.76 +9.9 10
1937-11-14 Admira Wien D 1-157.0 1307 1574 11.15% 22.40% 66.45%-2.91 +3.1 5
1937-11-14 @ Favoritner AC D 1-157.0 1574 1307 66.45% 22.40% 11.15%+2.91 -3.0 8
1937-11-14 Wacker Wien L 0-156.5 1564 1509 45.32% 24.64% 30.04%+0.56 -10.6 10
1937-11-14 @ First Vienna W 1-056.5 1509 1564 30.04% 24.64% 45.32%-0.56 +10.6 11
1937-11-14 FC Wien L 2-358.6 1493 1430 46.28% 24.61% 29.11%+0.64 -9.6 6
1937-11-14 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-258.6 1430 1493 29.11% 24.61% 46.28%-0.64 +9.6 9
1937-11-14 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-139.7 1590 1362 63.51% 23.00% 13.48%+2.41 +11.5 15
1937-11-14 @ Rapid Wien L 1-539.7 1362 1590 13.48% 23.00% 63.51%-2.41 -11.5 3
1937-11-21 Floridsdorfer L 1-255.0 1501 1484 40.05% 24.74% 35.21%+0.14 -9.0 10
1937-11-21 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-155.0 1484 1501 35.21% 24.74% 40.05%-0.14 +9.0 8
1938-02-13 Floridsdorfer L 1-440.1 1350 1493 20.37% 24.05% 55.58%-1.57 -12.9 3
1938-02-13 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-140.1 1493 1350 55.58% 24.05% 20.37%+1.57 +12.9 10
1938-02-13 Admira Wien D 0-058.4 1440 1571 21.46% 24.15% 54.38%-1.45 +1.9 10
1938-02-13 @ FC Wien D 0-058.4 1571 1440 54.38% 24.15% 21.46%+1.45 -1.9 9
1938-02-13 Austria Wien L 0-252.7 1554 1556 37.31% 24.75% 37.94%-0.07 -17.1 10
1938-02-13 @ First Vienna W 2-052.7 1556 1554 37.94% 24.75% 37.31%+0.07 +17.1 13
1938-02-13 Rapid Wien L 0-249.9 1519 1602 26.74% 24.51% 48.75%-0.93 -13.2 11
1938-02-13 @ Wacker Wien W 2-049.9 1602 1519 48.75% 24.51% 26.74%+0.93 +13.2 17
1938-02-13 Favoritner AC W 7-237.9 1492 1310 59.49% 23.62% 16.89%+1.91 +14.5 12
1938-02-13 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-737.9 1310 1492 16.89% 23.62% 59.49%-1.91 -14.5 5
1938-02-20 Wacker Wien L 3-840.7 1337 1506 18.00% 23.78% 58.22%-1.85 -13.8 3
1938-02-20 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 8-340.7 1506 1337 58.22% 23.78% 18.00%+1.85 +13.8 13
1938-02-20 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-163.2 1569 1506 46.26% 24.61% 29.13%+0.63 -0.8 10
1938-02-20 @ Admira Wien D 1-163.2 1506 1569 29.13% 24.61% 46.26%-0.63 +0.9 13
1938-02-20 FC Wien D 2-265.0 1573 1442 54.41% 24.15% 21.44%+1.37 -1.3 14
1938-02-20 @ Austria Wien D 2-265.0 1442 1573 21.44% 24.15% 54.41%-1.37 +1.3 11
1938-02-20 First Vienna D 1-155.4 1295 1537 12.66% 22.81% 64.53%-2.63 +2.8 6
1938-02-20 @ Favoritner AC D 1-155.4 1537 1295 64.53% 22.81% 12.66%+2.63 -2.8 11
1938-02-20 Floridsdorfer W 3-046.6 1615 1505 51.95% 24.33% 23.72%+1.13 +17.4 19
1938-02-20 @ Rapid Wien L 0-346.6 1505 1615 23.72% 24.33% 51.95%-1.13 -17.4 10
1938-03-05 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-253.8 1488 1507 34.96% 24.74% 40.30%-0.24 -8.1 10
1938-03-05 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-153.8 1507 1488 40.30% 24.74% 34.96%+0.24 +8.1 15
1938-03-06 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-033.0 1443 1323 53.09% 24.26% 22.66%+1.24 +26.9 13
1938-03-06 @ FC Wien L 0-533.0 1323 1443 22.66% 24.26% 53.09%-1.24 -26.9 3
1938-03-06 Admira Wien D 2-267.9 1534 1568 32.83% 24.71% 42.46%-0.41 +0.3 12
1938-03-06 @ First Vienna D 2-267.9 1568 1534 42.46% 24.71% 32.83%+0.41 -0.4 11
1938-03-06 Austria Wien W 3-050.6 1632 1572 45.95% 24.62% 29.43%+0.61 +20.7 21
1938-03-06 @ Rapid Wien L 0-350.6 1572 1632 29.43% 24.62% 45.95%-0.61 -20.7 14
1938-03-06 Favoritner AC L 0-347.9 1520 1298 62.96% 23.10% 13.93%+2.34 -39.1 13
1938-03-06 @ Wacker Wien W 3-047.9 1298 1520 13.93% 23.10% 62.96%-2.34 +39.1 8
1938-03-20 Rapid Wien L 1-935.8 1297 1653 7.19% 20.78% 72.03%-3.86 -11.8 3
1938-03-20 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 9-135.8 1653 1297 72.03% 20.78% 7.19%+3.86 +11.8 23
1938-03-20 Favoritner AC D 1-157.6 1568 1337 63.69% 22.97% 13.34%+2.43 -2.7 12
1938-03-20 @ Admira Wien D 1-157.6 1337 1568 13.34% 22.97% 63.69%-2.43 +2.7 9
1938-03-20 Floridsdorfer W 2-047.5 1470 1480 36.18% 24.74% 39.08%-0.15 +17.7 15
1938-03-20 @ FC Wien L 0-247.5 1480 1470 39.08% 24.74% 36.18%+0.15 -17.7 10
1938-03-20 First Vienna W 3-155.5 1481 1534 30.33% 24.65% 45.02%-0.61 +17.2 15
1938-03-20 @ Wacker Wien L 1-355.5 1534 1481 45.02% 24.65% 30.33%+0.61 -17.2 12
1938-03-20 Austria Wien D 1-162.9 1515 1551 32.62% 24.70% 42.68%-0.43 +0.5 16
1938-03-20 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-162.9 1551 1515 42.68% 24.70% 32.62%+0.43 -0.5 15
1938-03-26 Rapid Wien W 2-165.6 1565 1665 24.79% 24.40% 50.81%-1.11 +11.0 14
1938-03-26 @ Admira Wien L 1-265.6 1665 1565 50.81% 24.40% 24.79%+1.11 -11.0 23
1938-03-26 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-244.8 1551 1285 66.34% 22.43% 11.24%+2.81 +2.9 17
1938-03-26 @ Austria Wien L 2-344.8 1285 1551 11.24% 22.43% 66.34%-2.81 -2.9 3
1938-03-26 FC Wien W 3-258.5 1340 1488 19.87% 24.00% 56.13%-1.63 +11.4 11
1938-03-26 @ Favoritner AC L 2-358.5 1488 1340 56.13% 24.00% 19.87%+1.63 -11.4 15
1938-03-26 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-152.8 1517 1516 37.82% 24.75% 37.43%-0.03 -9.2 12
1938-03-26 @ First Vienna W 1-052.8 1516 1517 37.43% 24.75% 37.82%+0.03 +9.2 18
1938-03-26 Wacker Wien W 3-258.9 1462 1498 32.67% 24.70% 42.62%-0.42 +9.0 12
1938-03-26 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-358.9 1498 1462 42.62% 24.70% 32.67%+0.42 -9.0 15
1938-04-06 Floridsdorfer W 2-152.5 1508 1471 42.75% 24.70% 32.55%+0.35 +7.7 14
1938-04-06 @ First Vienna L 1-252.5 1471 1508 32.55% 24.70% 42.75%-0.35 -7.7 12
1938-04-07 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-030.9 1525 1282 64.64% 22.79% 12.57%+2.56 +13.0 20
1938-04-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-430.9 1282 1525 12.57% 22.79% 64.64%-2.56 -12.9 3
1938-04-12 Wacker Wien L 0-352.5 1576 1489 49.32% 24.48% 26.20%+0.89 -31.1 14
1938-04-12 @ Admira Wien W 3-052.5 1489 1576 26.20% 24.48% 49.32%-0.89 +31.2 17
1938-04-12 Rapid Wien L 0-247.0 1476 1654 17.24% 23.67% 59.09%-1.95 -9.1 15
1938-04-12 @ FC Wien W 2-047.0 1654 1476 59.09% 23.67% 17.24%+1.95 +9.1 25
1938-04-13 Austria Wien L 1-440.2 1351 1553 15.32% 23.37% 61.31%-2.21 -10.0 11
1938-04-13 @ Favoritner AC W 4-140.2 1553 1351 61.31% 23.37% 15.32%+2.21 +10.0 19
1938-04-27 Admira Wien D 0-061.7 1564 1545 40.27% 24.74% 35.00%+0.16 -0.3 20
1938-04-27 @ Austria Wien D 0-061.7 1545 1564 35.00% 24.74% 40.27%-0.16 +0.3 15
1938-04-27 FC Wien L 0-446.9 1520 1467 44.96% 24.65% 30.39%+0.53 -37.6 17
1938-04-27 @ Wacker Wien W 4-046.9 1467 1520 30.39% 24.65% 44.96%-0.53 +37.6 17
1938-05-04 First Vienna L 2-735.9 1269 1515 12.35% 22.73% 64.92%-2.69 -10.9 3
1938-05-04 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-235.9 1515 1269 64.92% 22.73% 12.35%+2.69 +10.9 16
1938-05-07 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-249.1 1341 1258 48.82% 24.51% 26.67%+0.85 -10.6 11
1938-05-07 @ Favoritner AC W 2-149.1 1258 1341 26.67% 24.51% 48.82%-0.85 +10.6 5
1938-05-08 Floridsdorfer W 2-151.9 1545 1464 48.63% 24.52% 26.85%+0.83 +6.6 17
1938-05-08 @ Admira Wien L 1-251.9 1464 1545 26.85% 24.52% 48.63%-0.83 -6.6 12
1938-05-08 FC Wien W 1-051.7 1538 1505 42.28% 24.71% 33.01%+0.31 +8.3 22
1938-05-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-151.7 1505 1538 33.01% 24.71% 42.28%-0.31 -8.3 17
1938-05-15 Favoritner AC D 1-154.0 1457 1331 53.85% 24.20% 21.95%+1.31 -1.6 13
1938-05-15 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-154.0 1331 1457 21.95% 24.20% 53.85%-1.31 +1.6 12
1938-05-15 Admira Wien L 3-739.3 1269 1552 10.32% 22.14% 67.54%-3.08 -6.9 5
1938-05-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-339.3 1552 1269 67.54% 22.14% 10.32%+3.08 +6.9 19
1938-05-15 First Vienna L 2-554.0 1496 1526 33.43% 24.72% 41.85%-0.36 -16.7 17
1938-05-15 @ FC Wien W 5-254.0 1526 1496 41.85% 24.72% 33.43%+0.36 +16.7 18
1938-05-15 Wiener Sport-Club D 2-265.3 1482 1546 29.06% 24.61% 46.34%-0.72 +0.6 18
1938-05-15 @ Wacker Wien D 2-265.3 1546 1482 46.34% 24.61% 29.06%+0.72 -0.6 23
1938-06-16 Austria Wien D 3-369.1 1455 1563 23.88% 24.34% 51.78%-1.20 +0.9 14
1938-06-16 @ Floridsdorfer D 3-369.1 1563 1455 51.78% 24.34% 23.88%+1.20 -0.9 21
1938-06-16 Favoritner AC W 6-242.3 1663 1332 70.55% 21.28% 8.17%+3.50 +6.0 27
1938-06-16 @ Rapid Wien L 2-642.3 1332 1663 8.17% 21.28% 70.55%-3.50 -6.0 12
1938-06-29 Rapid Wien D 2-271.0 1543 1669 22.00% 24.20% 53.80%-1.39 +1.2 19
1938-06-29 @ First Vienna D 2-271.0 1669 1543 53.80% 24.20% 22.00%+1.39 -1.2 28
1938-07-02 Wacker Wien L 1-259.7 1562 1483 48.34% 24.53% 27.13%+0.81 -10.5 21
1938-07-02 @ Austria Wien W 2-159.7 1483 1562 27.13% 24.53% 48.34%-0.81 +10.5 20
1938-07-03 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-154.6 1668 1545 53.41% 24.23% 22.36%+1.27 +9.9 30
1938-07-03 @ Rapid Wien L 1-354.6 1545 1668 22.36% 24.23% 53.41%-1.27 -9.9 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1938-03-06 13.93% Favoritner AC 1298 3 @ Wacker Wien 1520 0
2 1937-10-31 15.40% @ FC Wien 1393 4 Austria Wien 1595 2
3 1937-09-21 19.02% @ Floridsdorfer 1441 3 Admira Wien 1598 0
4 1938-03-26 19.87% @ Favoritner AC 1340 3 FC Wien 1488 2
5 1938-03-26 24.79% @ Admira Wien 1565 2 Rapid Wien 1665 1
6 1938-04-12 26.20% Wacker Wien 1489 3 @ Admira Wien 1576 0
7 1938-05-07 26.67% 1. Simmeringer SC 1258 2 @ Favoritner AC 1341 1
8 1938-07-02 27.13% Wacker Wien 1483 2 @ Austria Wien 1562 1
9 1937-09-05 27.36% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1464 2 Rapid Wien 1541 1
10 1937-11-14 27.64% Wiener Sport-Club 1491 3 @ Austria Wien 1566 2
11 1937-09-05 28.63% Austria Wien 1549 3 @ Admira Wien 1616 1
12 1937-09-04 28.97% @ FC Wien 1416 1 Wacker Wien 1480 0
13 1937-11-14 29.11% FC Wien 1430 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1493 2
14 1937-11-14 30.04% Wacker Wien 1509 1 @ First Vienna 1564 0
15 1938-03-20 30.33% @ Wacker Wien 1481 3 First Vienna 1534 1
16 1938-04-27 30.39% FC Wien 1467 4 @ Wacker Wien 1520 0
17 1937-09-04 30.83% @ Favoritner AC 1401 3 Floridsdorfer 1450 2
18 1937-10-03 31.80% Favoritner AC 1374 4 @ FC Wien 1416 3
19 1938-03-26 32.67% @ Floridsdorfer 1462 3 Wacker Wien 1498 2
20 1937-11-07 33.79% First Vienna 1555 3 @ Admira Wien 1583 2
21 1937-11-21 35.21% Floridsdorfer 1484 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1501 1
22 1937-09-26 35.23% Wacker Wien 1469 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1486 1
23 1937-09-22 35.93% @ Rapid Wien 1531 2 First Vienna 1543 0
24 1938-03-20 36.18% @ FC Wien 1470 2 Floridsdorfer 1480 0
25 1937-10-03 36.42% @ Rapid Wien 1563 5 Admira Wien 1571 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-03-06 39.10 Favoritner AC 3 1298 13.93% @ Wacker Wien 0 1520 62.96% 23.10%
2 1938-04-27 37.61 FC Wien 4 1467 30.39% @ Wacker Wien 0 1520 44.96% 24.65%
3 1937-10-17 36.18 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1464 42.60% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1428 32.70% 24.70%
4 1937-09-21 35.59 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1441 19.02% Admira Wien 0 1598 57.07% 23.90%
5 1937-08-29 33.53 @ Rapid Wien 5 1508 45.70% FC Wien 0 1449 29.67% 24.63%
6 1938-04-12 31.16 Wacker Wien 3 1489 26.20% @ Admira Wien 0 1576 49.32% 24.48%
7 1937-10-28 30.76 @ First Vienna 7 1525 57.96% Favoritner AC 0 1359 18.23% 23.81%
8 1938-03-06 26.94 @ FC Wien 5 1443 53.09% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1323 22.66% 24.26%
9 1937-10-17 23.98 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1477 50.21% @ Favoritner AC 0 1383 25.35% 24.44%
10 1937-09-18 22.06 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 6 1426 39.87% Favoritner AC 2 1410 35.39% 24.74%
11 1937-11-07 21.39 Wacker Wien 9 1487 57.29% @ Favoritner AC 2 1328 18.83% 23.88%
12 1938-03-06 20.69 @ Rapid Wien 3 1632 45.95% Austria Wien 0 1572 29.43% 24.62%
13 1937-10-31 20.30 @ FC Wien 4 1393 15.40% Austria Wien 2 1595 61.22% 23.38%
14 1937-09-22 17.81 @ Rapid Wien 2 1531 35.93% First Vienna 0 1543 39.32% 24.74%
15 1937-09-05 17.75 Austria Wien 3 1549 28.63% @ Admira Wien 1 1616 46.78% 24.59%
16 1938-03-20 17.72 @ FC Wien 2 1470 36.18% Floridsdorfer 0 1480 39.08% 24.74%
17 1938-02-20 17.38 @ Rapid Wien 3 1615 51.95% Floridsdorfer 0 1505 23.72% 24.33%
18 1938-03-20 17.19 @ Wacker Wien 3 1481 30.33% First Vienna 1 1534 45.02% 24.65%
19 1938-02-13 17.11 Austria Wien 2 1556 37.94% @ First Vienna 0 1554 37.31% 24.75%
20 1938-05-15 16.69 First Vienna 5 1526 41.85% @ FC Wien 2 1496 33.43% 24.72%
21 1937-11-07 16.40 FC Wien 5 1414 42.62% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1378 32.68% 24.70%
22 1938-02-13 14.49 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 1492 59.49% Favoritner AC 2 1310 16.89% 23.62%
23 1937-09-26 14.20 Rapid Wien 3 1549 57.45% @ Favoritner AC 0 1388 18.68% 23.86%
24 1937-10-31 14.09 @ Wacker Wien 5 1473 48.53% 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1392 26.95% 24.52%
25 1938-02-20 13.85 Wacker Wien 8 1506 58.22% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1337 18.00% 23.78%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-06-29 71.0 @ First Vienna 2 1543 22.00% Rapid Wien 2 1669 53.80% 24.20%
2 1937-10-17 70.1 @ Rapid Wien 3 1576 51.28% Wacker Wien 3 1472 24.34% 24.38%
3 1938-06-16 69.1 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1455 23.88% Austria Wien 3 1563 51.78% 24.34%
4 1937-10-03 68.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1477 31.15% First Vienna 3 1524 44.18% 24.67%
5 1938-03-06 67.9 @ First Vienna 2 1534 32.83% Admira Wien 2 1568 42.46% 24.71%
6 1937-09-26 66.2 @ First Vienna 3 1525 52.01% FC Wien 3 1415 23.66% 24.33%
7 1938-03-26 65.6 @ Admira Wien 2 1565 24.79% Rapid Wien 1 1665 50.81% 24.40%
8 1938-05-15 65.3 @ Wacker Wien 2 1482 29.06% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1546 46.34% 24.61%
9 1938-02-20 65.0 @ Austria Wien 2 1573 54.41% FC Wien 2 1442 21.44% 24.15%
10 1937-08-28 64.8 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1438 33.99% Wiener Sport-Club 3 1464 41.29% 24.72%
11 1937-10-03 64.8 @ Rapid Wien 5 1563 36.42% Admira Wien 3 1571 38.83% 24.75%
12 1937-11-07 64.8 First Vienna 3 1555 33.79% @ Admira Wien 2 1583 41.48% 24.72%
13 1937-10-17 64.7 @ Austria Wien 1 1595 47.39% First Vienna 1 1524 28.05% 24.57%
14 1937-08-29 64.1 @ Wacker Wien 1 1478 20.67% Admira Wien 1 1617 55.25% 24.08%
15 1937-11-14 64.0 Wiener Sport-Club 3 1491 27.64% @ Austria Wien 2 1566 47.81% 24.55%
16 1937-08-29 63.6 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1449 26.89% First Vienna 2 1531 48.60% 24.52%
17 1938-02-20 63.2 @ Admira Wien 1 1569 46.26% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1506 29.13% 24.61%
18 1937-10-31 63.0 @ FC Wien 4 1393 15.40% Austria Wien 2 1595 61.22% 23.38%
19 1938-03-20 62.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1515 32.62% Austria Wien 1 1551 42.68% 24.70%
20 1938-04-27 61.7 @ Austria Wien 0 1564 40.27% Admira Wien 0 1545 35.00% 24.74%
21 1937-09-05 60.9 Austria Wien 3 1549 28.63% @ Admira Wien 1 1616 46.78% 24.59%
22 1937-11-07 59.8 Rapid Wien 2 1582 38.71% @ Austria Wien 1 1574 36.54% 24.75%
23 1938-07-02 59.7 Wacker Wien 2 1483 27.13% @ Austria Wien 1 1562 48.34% 24.53%
24 1938-03-26 58.9 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1462 32.67% Wacker Wien 2 1498 42.62% 24.70%
25 1937-11-14 58.6 FC Wien 3 1430 29.11% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1493 46.28% 24.61%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-04-07 30.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1525 64.64% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1282 12.57% 22.79%
2 1938-03-06 33.0 @ FC Wien 5 1443 53.09% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1323 22.66% 24.26%
3 1937-10-28 35.2 @ First Vienna 7 1525 57.96% Favoritner AC 0 1359 18.23% 23.81%
4 1938-03-20 35.8 Rapid Wien 9 1653 72.03% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1297 7.19% 20.78%
5 1938-05-04 35.9 First Vienna 7 1515 64.92% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1269 12.35% 22.73%
6 1937-10-17 36.7 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1477 50.21% @ Favoritner AC 0 1383 25.35% 24.44%
7 1937-11-07 37.3 Wacker Wien 9 1487 57.29% @ Favoritner AC 2 1328 18.83% 23.88%
8 1938-02-13 37.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 1492 59.49% Favoritner AC 2 1310 16.89% 23.62%
9 1937-09-26 38.4 Rapid Wien 3 1549 57.45% @ Favoritner AC 0 1388 18.68% 23.86%
10 1938-05-15 39.3 Admira Wien 7 1552 67.54% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1269 10.32% 22.14%
11 1937-10-17 39.4 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1464 42.60% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1428 32.70% 24.70%
12 1937-11-14 39.7 @ Rapid Wien 5 1590 63.51% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1362 13.48% 23.00%
13 1938-02-13 40.1 Floridsdorfer 4 1493 55.58% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1350 20.37% 24.05%
14 1938-04-13 40.2 Austria Wien 4 1553 61.31% @ Favoritner AC 1 1351 15.32% 23.37%
15 1937-08-29 40.7 @ Rapid Wien 5 1508 45.70% FC Wien 0 1449 29.67% 24.63%
16 1938-02-20 40.7 Wacker Wien 8 1506 58.22% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1337 18.00% 23.78%
17 1938-06-16 42.3 @ Rapid Wien 6 1663 70.55% Favoritner AC 2 1332 8.17% 21.28%
18 1937-09-04 44.1 @ First Vienna 2 1530 49.83% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1439 25.71% 24.46%
19 1937-10-03 44.3 Austria Wien 2 1585 55.99% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1439 20.00% 24.01%
20 1938-03-26 44.8 @ Austria Wien 3 1551 66.34% 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1285 11.24% 22.43%
21 1937-10-17 45.4 @ Admira Wien 6 1558 56.52% FC Wien 2 1407 19.52% 23.96%
22 1937-09-18 46.2 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 6 1426 39.87% Favoritner AC 2 1410 35.39% 24.74%
23 1937-11-07 46.4 FC Wien 5 1414 42.62% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1378 32.68% 24.70%
24 1937-10-31 46.5 @ Wacker Wien 5 1473 48.53% 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1392 26.95% 24.52%
25 1938-02-20 46.6 @ Rapid Wien 3 1615 51.95% Floridsdorfer 0 1505 23.72% 24.33%