1929-30 Austrian Football Championship Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

First Vienna

6.16 points above expected

28 points · 21.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hakoah Vienna

5.56 points below expected

10 points · 15.56 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 20 13 4 3 30 67 29 +38 26.47 +3.53
2 Admira Wien 20 12 5 3 29 56 34 +22 26.17 +2.83
3 First Vienna 20 12 4 4 28 51 31 +20 21.84 +6.16
4 Wiener AC 20 10 5 5 25 39 29 +10 23.10 +1.90
5 Austria Wien 20 9 2 9 20 56 43 +13 19.82 +0.18
6 Floridsdorfer 20 6 6 8 18 35 45 -10 19.12 -1.12
7 FC Nicholson 20 6 6 8 18 28 45 -17 16.78 +1.22
8 Wacker Wien 20 7 3 10 17 34 47 -13 18.32 -1.32
9 Wiener Sport-Club 20 6 3 11 15 33 47 -14 19.16 -4.16
10 Hertha Wien 20 3 4 13 10 33 52 -19 13.67 -3.67
11 Hakoah Vienna 20 4 2 14 10 31 61 -30 15.56 -5.56

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 28 21.84 +6.16
2 Rapid Wien 30 26.47 +3.53
3 Admira Wien 29 26.17 +2.83
4 Wiener AC 25 23.10 +1.90
5 FC Nicholson 18 16.78 +1.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hakoah Vienna 10 15.56 -5.56
2 Wiener Sport-Club 15 19.16 -4.16
3 Hertha Wien 10 13.67 -3.67
4 Wacker Wien 17 18.32 -1.32
5 Floridsdorfer 18 19.12 -1.12

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 4 Mar 2 – Apr 5 1 in 58
2 Admira Wien 5 Oct 13 – Nov 17 1 in 19
3 Floridsdorfer 2 Dec 1 – Feb 9 1 in 19
4 Austria Wien 3 Nov 10 – Jan 26 1 in 15
5 Rapid Wien 5 Mar 30 – May 25 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hertha Wien 8 Feb 23 – May 24 1 in 77
2 Wacker Wien 4 Nov 2 – Dec 1 1 in 28
3 Rapid Wien 2 Mar 2 – Mar 9 1 in 19
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 17
5 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Dec 1 – Feb 23 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hertha Wien 5 Sep 8 – Oct 19 1 in 57
2 FC Nicholson 5 Nov 24 – Mar 2 1 in 27
3 First Vienna 7 Feb 6 – Apr 5 1 in 24
4 Rapid Wien 10 Aug 18 – Dec 1 1 in 21
5 Wiener AC 7 Sep 22 – Nov 24 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 6 Oct 13 – Nov 24 1 in 31
2 Wiener Sport-Club 5 Oct 12 – Nov 17 1 in 7
3 Hertha Wien 8 Feb 23 – May 24 1 in 7
4 Rapid Wien 3 Sep 1 – Sep 22 1 in 6
5 FC Nicholson 5 Feb 16 – Apr 12 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1572 30 +38 10 7.1 +2.9
Admira Wien 1533 29 +17 8 6.9 +1.1
First Vienna 1488 28 +47 8 5.5 +2.5
Wiener AC 1474 25 +0 6 6.3 -0.3
Austria Wien 1418 20 -12 4 5.6 -1.6
FC Nicholson 1336 18 +6 6 4.1 +1.9
Floridsdorfer 1368 18 -2 5 4.4 +0.6
Wacker Wien 1361 17 +2 6 4.4 +1.6
Wiener Sport-Club 1358 15 -20 2 4.4 -2.4
Hakoah Vienna 1269 10 -29 3 3.3 -0.3
Hertha Wien 1253 10 -27 0 3.1 -3.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FN FV FLO HV HW RW WW WA WS
Admira Wien
2-0-0
3.57
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.89
1-1-0
4.04
1-0-1
4.29
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.95
0-1-1
3.45
2-0-0
3.80
Austria Wien
0-0-2
2.01
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.40
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
1.75
0-0-2
3.01
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.89
FC Nicholson
0-1-1
1.51
0-1-1
2.43
0-1-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.92
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
1.60
1-1-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
2.39
First Vienna
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.43
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.90
1-1-0
1.95
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.46
1-1-0
2.99
Floridsdorfer
0-1-1
1.70
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.48
2-0-0
3.33
0-1-1
3.63
1-1-0
1.85
0-0-2
2.99
1-0-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.65
Hakoah Vienna
0-1-1
1.56
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
1.75
0-0-2
2.25
2-0-0
3.02
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
2.43
Hertha Wien
1-0-1
1.32
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
1.69
1-1-0
1.95
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
2.11
0-1-1
1.59
0-1-1
1.97
Rapid Wien
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
3.84
2-0-0
4.00
0-1-1
3.63
0-1-1
3.74
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.49
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.87
Wacker Wien
0-0-2
1.64
2-0-0
2.57
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
2.32
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
3.13
1-1-0
3.47
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.77
Wiener AC
1-1-0
2.13
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.63
0-0-2
3.12
1-0-1
3.52
2-0-0
3.78
1-1-0
4.00
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.47
Wiener Sport-Club
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
3.19
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.93
2-0-0
3.14
1-1-0
3.62
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.11

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.64 +4.4
Allowed 0.90 -6.6
Differential 0.88 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%3.18%3.18%2.73%0.45%2.27%16.36%
13.18%8.18%5.45%4.55%1.36%2.73%25.45%
23.18%5.45%2.73%5.45%2.73%3.18%22.73%
32.73%4.55%5.45%3.64%1.36%17.73%
40.45%1.36%2.73%1.36%0.91%1.36%8.18%
5+2.27%2.73%3.18%1.36%9.55%
Total16.36%25.45%22.73%17.73%8.18%9.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.10 2.10 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.34
CV 0.78 0.78
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
110.00%10.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
310.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
410.00%5.00%15.00%
5+5.00%10.00%15.00%
Total25.00%35.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.80 1.70 +1.10
SD 1.88 1.75 2.71
CV 0.67 1.03
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
110.00%5.00%15.00%
25.00%5.00%
315.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%40.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+5.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
Total15.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%20.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.80 2.15 +0.65
SD 2.04 1.53 2.28
CV 0.73 0.71
Max 8 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
210.00%5.00%10.00%25.00%
35.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
4
5+
Total10.00%35.00%20.00%15.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 2.25 -0.85
SD 1.10 1.77 2.03
CV 0.78 0.79
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
110.00%10.00%
25.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
5+5.00%10.00%15.00%
Total15.00%45.00%10.00%30.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.55 +1.00
SD 1.85 1.10 2.20
CV 0.73 0.71
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%
35.00%10.00%10.00%25.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total15.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 2.25 -0.50
SD 1.45 1.55 2.35
CV 0.83 0.69
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
15.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%35.00%
25.00%10.00%15.00%
310.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total10.00%30.00%20.00%25.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 3.05 -1.50
SD 1.43 1.64 1.82
CV 0.92 0.54
Max 5 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%
15.00%10.00%5.00%15.00%35.00%
25.00%10.00%25.00%5.00%45.00%
3
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+
Total5.00%15.00%30.00%40.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 2.60 -0.95
SD 1.04 1.60 1.43
CV 0.63 0.62
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%
110.00%5.00%15.00%
215.00%5.00%20.00%
35.00%5.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+10.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%40.00%
Total35.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.35 1.45 +1.90
SD 2.21 1.90 2.49
CV 0.66 1.31
Max 7 8 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
15.00%10.00%10.00%25.00%
215.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%40.00%
3
410.00%10.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total15.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%5.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.70 2.35 -0.65
SD 1.38 1.81 2.56
CV 0.81 0.77
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
210.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
35.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total25.00%25.00%35.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.45 +0.50
SD 1.32 1.15 1.47
CV 0.68 0.79
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%
15.00%10.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%50.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
310.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
4
5+
Total10.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 2.35 -0.70
SD 0.93 1.73 1.95
CV 0.57 0.73
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1572 30 26.47 +3.53 87.8% 14 21 24 27 29 32 36
Admira Wien 1533 29 26.17 +2.83 79.6% 12 20 24 26 29 32 37
First Vienna 1488 28 21.84 +6.16 97.2% 12 16 19 22 24 28 37
Wiener AC 1474 25 23.10 +1.90 73.7% 12 17 21 23 26 29 34
Austria Wien 1418 20 19.82 +0.18 55.2% 7 13 17 20 22 26 32
Floridsdorfer 1368 18 19.12 -1.12 44.2% 10 13 16 19 22 25 32
Wacker Wien 1361 17 18.32 -1.32 42.5% 8 12 16 18 21 25 30
Wiener Sport-Club 1358 15 19.16 -4.16 17.2% 7 13 17 19 22 25 31
FC Nicholson 1336 18 16.78 +1.22 67.1% 6 10 14 17 19 23 30
Hakoah Vienna 1269 10 15.56 -5.56 8.3% 3 10 13 15 18 22 26
Hertha Wien 1253 10 13.67 -3.67 19.8% 2 8 11 14 16 20 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.45%
Slight Edge
42.73%20.00%37.27%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.97 Elo pts.
103 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.05 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6 * Wild Swing: 6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.43 * Close: 1.43 to 2.15 * Off: 2.15 to 2.86 * Way Off: 2.86 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.41 points
Some Luck
03.759
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.91
Pinpoint
01.794
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
97.20%
First Vienna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
8.30%
Hakoah Vienna
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.60
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.86
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.89
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.50
Very Underconfident
0.3460371.001.65396
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.108
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Rapid Wien42.90%27.10%13.00%8.90%4.00%1.40%1.40%0.80%0.30%0.20%
Admira Wien36.20%27.00%14.90%8.70%5.60%4.00%2.40%0.70%0.20%0.20%0.10%
First Vienna6.60%9.90%19.20%16.60%14.80%11.20%9.60%5.80%3.70%1.60%1.00%
Wiener AC8.60%18.30%19.90%18.30%11.10%9.80%6.90%3.80%2.10%0.80%0.40%
Austria Wien2.10%6.30%9.10%12.60%16.80%13.20%12.10%10.00%8.20%6.60%3.00%
Floridsdorfer1.00%2.90%7.80%9.70%11.60%14.90%14.10%14.30%11.60%8.10%4.00%
FC Nicholson0.40%1.60%2.50%3.60%7.10%10.70%12.20%14.30%16.40%18.80%12.40%
Wacker Wien0.90%2.80%5.50%8.30%8.90%13.30%12.50%14.40%14.50%11.30%7.60%
Wiener Sport-Club1.20%3.40%6.20%10.50%13.00%13.20%15.50%13.70%11.10%7.50%4.70%
Hertha Wien0.10%0.80%0.80%2.40%3.20%4.90%8.00%14.40%22.10%43.30%
Hakoah Vienna0.10%0.60%1.10%2.00%4.70%5.10%8.40%14.20%17.50%22.80%23.50%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rapid Wien 99.80% 0.20%
Admira Wien 99.70% 0.30%
Wiener AC 98.80% 1.20%
First Vienna 97.40% 2.60%
Austria Wien 90.40% 9.60%
Floridsdorfer 87.90% 12.10%
Wiener Sport-Club 87.80% 12.20%
Wacker Wien 81.10% 18.90%
FC Nicholson 68.80% 31.20%
Hakoah Vienna 53.70% 46.30%
Hertha Wien 34.60% 65.40%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1929-08-18 FC Nicholson W 5-032.9 1482 1375 56.83% 20.67% 22.50%+1.22 +16.2 2
1929-08-18 @ Rapid Wien L 0-532.9 1375 1482 22.50% 20.67% 56.83%-1.22 -16.2 0
1929-08-31 First Vienna D 3-364.9 1414 1423 42.15% 21.21% 36.65%+0.10 -0.1 1
1929-08-31 @ Floridsdorfer D 3-364.9 1423 1414 36.65% 21.21% 42.15%-0.10 +0.1 1
1929-08-31 Austria Wien D 3-364.2 1444 1363 53.82% 20.87% 25.31%+0.97 -0.6 1
1929-08-31 @ Wiener AC D 3-364.2 1363 1444 25.31% 20.87% 53.82%-0.97 +0.6 1
1929-09-01 Rapid Wien D 0-059.1 1492 1498 42.60% 21.20% 36.20%+0.13 -0.2 1
1929-09-01 @ Admira Wien D 0-059.1 1498 1492 36.20% 21.20% 42.60%-0.13 +0.2 3
1929-09-01 Hertha Wien W 3-246.2 1358 1290 52.35% 20.95% 26.70%+0.85 +3.8 2
1929-09-01 @ FC Nicholson L 2-346.2 1290 1358 26.70% 20.95% 52.35%-0.85 -3.8 0
1929-09-01 Hakoah Vienna W 2-144.8 1397 1364 47.84% 21.12% 31.04%+0.50 +4.6 2
1929-09-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-244.8 1364 1397 31.04% 21.12% 47.84%-0.50 -4.6 0
1929-09-08 FC Nicholson W 5-138.5 1364 1362 43.65% 21.19% 35.15%+0.20 +16.0 3
1929-09-08 @ Austria Wien L 1-538.5 1362 1364 35.15% 21.19% 43.65%-0.20 -16.0 2
1929-09-08 Wiener AC W 2-149.5 1423 1443 40.62% 21.21% 38.18%-0.01 +5.4 3
1929-09-08 @ First Vienna L 1-249.5 1443 1423 38.18% 21.21% 40.62%+0.01 -5.4 1
1929-09-08 Admira Wien L 0-335.7 1360 1492 26.00% 20.78% 53.22%-1.09 -11.4 0
1929-09-08 @ Hakoah Vienna W 3-035.7 1492 1360 53.22% 20.78% 26.00%+1.09 +11.4 3
1929-09-08 Wacker Wien D 2-257.8 1286 1386 29.82% 20.99% 49.19%-0.78 +0.5 1
1929-09-08 @ Hertha Wien D 2-257.8 1386 1286 49.19% 20.99% 29.82%+0.78 -0.5 1
1929-09-08 Floridsdorfer D 1-159.2 1498 1414 54.20% 20.85% 24.95%+1.00 -1.0 4
1929-09-08 @ Rapid Wien D 1-159.2 1414 1498 24.95% 20.85% 54.20%-1.00 +0.9 2
1929-09-22 Hakoah Vienna W 5-241.9 1415 1348 52.13% 20.96% 26.91%+0.83 +8.6 4
1929-09-22 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-541.9 1348 1415 26.91% 20.96% 52.13%-0.83 -8.6 0
1929-09-22 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-154.1 1286 1402 27.94% 20.89% 51.17%-0.93 +0.7 2
1929-09-22 @ Hertha Wien D 1-154.1 1402 1286 51.17% 20.89% 27.94%+0.93 -0.7 3
1929-09-22 Austria Wien W 1-042.5 1385 1380 44.18% 21.19% 34.63%+0.24 +5.3 3
1929-09-22 @ Wacker Wien L 0-142.5 1380 1385 34.63% 21.19% 44.18%-0.24 -5.3 3
1929-09-22 Rapid Wien D 1-159.9 1438 1497 35.09% 21.15% 43.76%-0.39 +0.3 2
1929-09-22 @ Wiener AC D 1-159.9 1497 1438 43.76% 21.15% 35.09%+0.39 -0.3 5
1929-09-28 Wacker Wien W 3-250.1 1429 1391 48.56% 21.10% 30.34%+0.55 +4.2 5
1929-09-28 @ First Vienna L 2-350.1 1391 1429 30.34% 21.10% 48.56%-0.55 -4.2 3
1929-09-29 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-144.3 1374 1401 39.68% 21.21% 39.12%-0.07 -5.9 3
1929-09-29 @ Austria Wien W 1-044.3 1401 1374 39.12% 21.21% 39.68%+0.07 +5.9 5
1929-09-29 Admira Wien W 4-255.7 1287 1503 17.80% 19.93% 62.27%-1.91 +12.8 4
1929-09-29 @ Hertha Wien L 2-455.7 1503 1287 62.27% 19.93% 17.80%+1.91 -12.8 3
1929-09-29 Hakoah Vienna D 0-051.2 1346 1340 44.29% 21.19% 34.53%+0.24 -0.3 3
1929-09-29 @ FC Nicholson D 0-051.2 1340 1346 34.53% 21.19% 44.29%-0.24 +0.3 1
1929-10-12 First Vienna D 1-156.9 1407 1433 39.71% 21.21% 39.08%-0.07 -0.0 6
1929-10-12 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-156.9 1433 1407 39.08% 21.21% 39.71%+0.07 +0.0 6
1929-10-13 Austria Wien W 2-143.9 1491 1369 58.41% 20.54% 21.05%+1.36 +3.3 5
1929-10-13 @ Admira Wien L 1-243.9 1369 1491 21.05% 20.54% 58.41%-1.36 -3.3 3
1929-10-13 Hertha Wien D 1-154.7 1424 1300 58.60% 20.52% 20.88%+1.38 -1.2 5
1929-10-13 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-154.7 1300 1424 20.88% 20.52% 58.60%-1.38 +1.2 5
1929-10-13 Rapid Wien L 0-240.2 1386 1497 28.49% 20.92% 50.59%-0.89 -8.5 3
1929-10-13 @ Wacker Wien W 2-040.2 1497 1386 50.59% 20.92% 28.49%+0.89 +8.5 7
1929-10-13 Wiener AC L 0-141.7 1346 1438 30.72% 21.02% 48.25%-0.71 -4.8 3
1929-10-13 @ FC Nicholson W 1-041.7 1438 1346 48.25% 21.02% 30.72%+0.71 +4.8 4
1929-10-19 Wiener AC D 2-258.9 1301 1443 24.91% 20.70% 54.39%-1.19 +0.7 6
1929-10-19 @ Hertha Wien D 2-258.9 1443 1301 54.39% 20.70% 24.91%+1.19 -0.7 5
1929-10-20 Floridsdorfer W 3-039.5 1365 1422 35.37% 21.16% 43.47%-0.37 +17.4 5
1929-10-20 @ Austria Wien L 0-339.5 1422 1365 43.47% 21.16% 35.37%+0.37 -17.4 5
1929-10-20 Admira Wien L 0-340.9 1433 1494 34.90% 21.15% 43.96%-0.40 -14.6 6
1929-10-20 @ First Vienna W 3-040.9 1494 1433 43.96% 21.15% 34.90%+0.40 +14.6 7
1929-10-20 Wacker Wien W 1-043.6 1340 1378 38.09% 21.20% 40.72%-0.18 +6.0 3
1929-10-20 @ Hakoah Vienna L 0-143.6 1378 1340 40.72% 21.20% 38.09%+0.18 -6.0 3
1929-10-20 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-139.3 1505 1407 55.87% 20.74% 23.39%+1.14 +11.3 9
1929-10-20 @ Rapid Wien L 1-539.3 1407 1505 23.39% 20.74% 55.87%-1.14 -11.4 6
1929-10-27 Wiener AC L 0-238.3 1346 1442 30.26% 21.01% 48.73%-0.75 -8.9 3
1929-10-27 @ Hakoah Vienna W 2-038.3 1442 1346 48.73% 21.01% 30.26%+0.75 +8.9 7
1929-10-27 Wacker Wien L 0-538.7 1405 1372 47.91% 21.12% 30.98%+0.51 -30.4 5
1929-10-27 @ Floridsdorfer W 5-038.7 1372 1405 30.98% 21.12% 47.91%-0.51 +30.4 5
1929-11-01 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-145.9 1451 1396 50.79% 21.02% 28.19%+0.72 +4.2 9
1929-11-01 @ Wiener AC L 1-245.9 1396 1451 28.19% 21.02% 50.79%-0.72 -4.2 6
1929-11-02 Wacker Wien W 3-252.6 1341 1402 34.82% 21.15% 44.03%-0.41 +5.7 5
1929-11-02 @ FC Nicholson L 2-352.6 1402 1341 44.03% 21.15% 34.82%+0.41 -5.7 5
1929-11-03 Rapid Wien L 2-448.0 1383 1517 25.77% 20.76% 53.47%-1.11 -6.0 5
1929-11-03 @ Austria Wien W 4-248.0 1517 1383 53.47% 20.76% 25.77%+1.11 +6.0 11
1929-11-03 Admira Wien L 1-440.8 1375 1508 25.82% 20.76% 53.42%-1.11 -9.6 5
1929-11-03 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-140.8 1508 1375 53.42% 20.76% 25.82%+1.11 +9.6 9
1929-11-03 Hakoah Vienna L 2-349.7 1302 1337 38.41% 21.20% 40.39%-0.16 -5.1 6
1929-11-03 @ Hertha Wien W 3-249.7 1337 1302 40.39% 21.20% 38.41%+0.16 +5.1 5
1929-11-10 Austria Wien L 0-336.8 1342 1377 38.57% 21.20% 40.23%-0.15 -15.8 5
1929-11-10 @ Hakoah Vienna W 3-036.8 1377 1342 40.23% 21.20% 38.57%+0.15 +15.8 7
1929-11-10 First Vienna D 0-057.4 1523 1419 56.50% 20.70% 22.80%+1.19 -1.2 12
1929-11-10 @ Rapid Wien D 0-057.4 1419 1523 22.80% 20.70% 56.50%-1.19 +1.2 7
1929-11-12 FC Nicholson W 6-238.7 1518 1347 63.24% 20.01% 16.75%+1.84 +7.1 11
1929-11-12 @ Admira Wien L 2-638.7 1347 1518 16.75% 20.01% 63.24%-1.84 -7.1 5
1929-11-12 Wiener AC L 2-449.5 1396 1456 35.11% 21.15% 43.73%-0.39 -7.8 5
1929-11-12 @ Wacker Wien W 4-249.5 1456 1396 43.73% 21.15% 35.11%+0.39 +7.8 11
1929-11-12 Floridsdorfer D 3-363.1 1391 1365 46.97% 21.14% 31.89%+0.44 -0.3 7
1929-11-12 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 3-363.1 1365 1391 31.89% 21.14% 46.97%-0.44 +0.3 6
1929-11-17 First Vienna L 0-238.4 1340 1420 32.30% 21.08% 46.62%-0.59 -9.4 5
1929-11-17 @ FC Nicholson W 2-038.4 1420 1340 46.62% 21.08% 32.30%+0.59 +9.4 9
1929-11-17 Wiener Sport-Club W 6-241.4 1525 1391 59.66% 20.42% 19.91%+1.48 +8.4 13
1929-11-17 @ Admira Wien L 2-641.4 1391 1525 19.91% 20.42% 59.66%-1.48 -8.4 7
1929-11-17 Austria Wien L 2-639.5 1297 1392 30.33% 21.01% 48.66%-0.74 -12.0 6
1929-11-17 @ Hertha Wien W 6-239.5 1392 1297 48.66% 21.01% 30.33%+0.74 +12.0 9
1929-11-24 FC Nicholson D 1-154.1 1365 1330 48.16% 21.11% 30.73%+0.52 -0.5 7
1929-11-24 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-154.1 1330 1365 30.73% 21.11% 48.16%-0.52 +0.5 6
1929-11-24 Rapid Wien L 2-639.1 1327 1522 19.63% 20.18% 60.19%-1.70 -8.2 5
1929-11-24 @ Hakoah Vienna W 6-239.1 1522 1327 60.19% 20.18% 19.63%+1.70 +8.2 14
1929-11-24 First Vienna W 1-047.6 1285 1429 24.64% 20.68% 54.69%-1.21 +7.8 8
1929-11-24 @ Hertha Wien L 0-147.6 1429 1285 54.69% 20.68% 24.64%+1.21 -7.8 9
1929-11-24 Admira Wien D 1-162.1 1463 1533 33.63% 21.12% 45.25%-0.49 +0.4 12
1929-11-24 @ Wiener AC D 1-162.1 1533 1463 45.25% 21.12% 33.63%+0.49 -0.4 14
1929-11-24 Wacker Wien W 3-143.8 1383 1389 42.58% 21.20% 36.22%+0.13 +9.0 9
1929-11-24 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-343.8 1389 1383 36.22% 21.20% 42.58%-0.13 -9.0 5
1929-12-01 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-044.6 1331 1392 34.87% 21.15% 43.98%-0.41 +6.4 8
1929-12-01 @ FC Nicholson L 0-144.6 1392 1331 43.98% 21.15% 34.87%+0.41 -6.4 9
1929-12-01 Hertha Wien W 7-441.8 1530 1293 68.68% 19.10% 12.21%+2.48 +3.7 16
1929-12-01 @ Rapid Wien L 4-741.8 1293 1530 12.21% 19.10% 68.68%-2.48 -3.7 8
1929-12-01 Admira Wien L 0-635.5 1380 1533 23.69% 20.60% 55.71%-1.30 -20.1 5
1929-12-01 @ Wacker Wien W 6-035.5 1533 1380 55.71% 20.60% 23.69%+1.30 +20.1 16
1929-12-01 Floridsdorfer L 0-150.2 1464 1365 55.89% 20.74% 23.37%+1.14 -7.9 12
1929-12-01 @ Wiener AC W 1-050.2 1365 1464 23.37% 20.74% 55.89%-1.14 +7.9 9
1930-01-26 Austria Wien L 0-341.1 1421 1404 45.75% 21.16% 33.08%+0.35 -18.1 9
1930-01-26 @ First Vienna W 3-041.1 1404 1421 33.08% 21.16% 45.75%-0.35 +18.1 11
1930-02-06 Hakoah Vienna W 4-350.2 1403 1318 54.30% 20.84% 24.85%+1.01 +3.5 11
1930-02-06 @ First Vienna L 3-450.2 1318 1403 24.85% 20.84% 54.30%-1.01 -3.5 5
1930-02-09 Rapid Wien W 3-260.3 1373 1534 22.92% 20.53% 56.54%-1.37 +7.2 11
1930-02-09 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-360.3 1534 1373 56.54% 20.53% 22.92%+1.37 -7.2 16
1930-02-09 Hertha Wien W 2-141.9 1360 1289 52.62% 20.93% 26.44%+0.87 +4.0 7
1930-02-09 @ Wacker Wien L 1-241.9 1289 1360 26.44% 20.93% 52.62%-0.87 -4.0 8
1930-02-16 Wiener AC L 2-557.9 1553 1456 55.73% 20.75% 23.52%+1.13 -15.8 16
1930-02-16 @ Admira Wien W 5-257.9 1456 1553 23.52% 20.75% 55.73%-1.13 +15.8 14
1930-02-16 Austria Wien D 3-363.2 1337 1423 31.63% 21.06% 47.32%-0.64 +0.3 9
1930-02-16 @ FC Nicholson D 3-363.2 1423 1337 47.32% 21.06% 31.63%+0.64 -0.3 12
1930-02-16 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-140.5 1407 1385 46.37% 21.15% 32.48%+0.39 +11.6 13
1930-02-16 @ First Vienna L 1-440.5 1385 1407 32.48% 21.15% 46.37%-0.39 -11.6 9
1930-02-16 Floridsdorfer W 2-148.7 1285 1380 30.40% 21.01% 48.59%-0.74 +6.6 10
1930-02-16 @ Hertha Wien L 1-248.7 1380 1285 48.59% 21.01% 30.40%+0.74 -6.6 11
1930-02-16 Hakoah Vienna W 3-138.2 1526 1315 66.69% 19.48% 13.83%+2.23 +3.9 18
1930-02-16 @ Rapid Wien L 1-338.2 1315 1526 13.83% 19.48% 66.69%-2.23 -3.8 5
1930-02-23 Wiener AC L 0-243.0 1422 1472 36.45% 21.18% 42.37%-0.29 -10.4 12
1930-02-23 @ Austria Wien W 2-043.0 1472 1422 42.37% 21.18% 36.45%+0.29 +10.4 16
1930-02-23 FC Nicholson D 1-155.1 1418 1337 53.84% 20.87% 25.29%+0.97 -0.9 14
1930-02-23 @ First Vienna D 1-155.1 1337 1418 25.29% 20.87% 53.84%-0.97 +0.9 10
1930-02-23 Hertha Wien W 3-247.7 1311 1291 46.10% 21.16% 32.75%+0.37 +4.5 7
1930-02-23 @ Hakoah Vienna L 2-347.7 1291 1311 32.75% 21.16% 46.10%-0.37 -4.5 10
1930-02-23 Admira Wien W 6-045.2 1530 1537 42.42% 21.20% 36.38%+0.11 +28.8 20
1930-02-23 @ Rapid Wien L 0-645.2 1537 1530 36.38% 21.20% 42.42%-0.11 -28.8 16
1930-02-23 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-146.2 1364 1374 42.02% 21.21% 36.78%+0.09 +5.2 9
1930-02-23 @ Wacker Wien L 1-246.2 1374 1364 36.78% 21.21% 42.02%-0.09 -5.2 9
1930-03-02 Hertha Wien W 3-243.9 1509 1287 67.49% 19.34% 13.17%+2.33 +2.0 18
1930-03-02 @ Admira Wien L 2-343.9 1287 1509 13.17% 19.34% 67.49%-2.33 -2.0 10
1930-03-02 Austria Wien L 4-858.2 1559 1412 60.97% 20.29% 18.74%+1.61 -18.7 20
1930-03-02 @ Rapid Wien W 8-458.2 1412 1559 18.74% 20.29% 60.97%-1.61 +18.7 14
1930-03-02 FC Nicholson D 2-258.2 1369 1338 47.53% 21.13% 31.34%+0.48 -0.4 10
1930-03-02 @ Wacker Wien D 2-258.2 1338 1369 31.34% 21.13% 47.53%-0.48 +0.4 11
1930-03-02 First Vienna L 2-455.9 1482 1418 51.86% 20.97% 27.17%+0.81 -10.8 16
1930-03-02 @ Wiener AC W 4-255.9 1418 1482 27.17% 20.97% 51.86%-0.81 +10.8 16
1930-03-08 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-342.4 1316 1368 35.97% 21.17% 42.86%-0.33 -8.9 7
1930-03-08 @ Hakoah Vienna W 3-142.4 1368 1316 42.86% 21.17% 35.97%+0.33 +8.9 11
1930-03-09 Hertha Wien W 3-137.4 1431 1285 60.82% 20.30% 18.87%+1.59 +5.1 16
1930-03-09 @ Austria Wien L 1-337.4 1285 1431 18.87% 20.30% 60.82%-1.59 -5.1 10
1930-03-09 Floridsdorfer L 1-343.5 1339 1373 38.52% 21.20% 40.28%-0.15 -9.4 11
1930-03-09 @ FC Nicholson W 3-143.5 1373 1339 40.28% 21.20% 38.52%+0.15 +9.4 13
1930-03-09 Rapid Wien W 2-156.6 1428 1540 28.33% 20.91% 50.76%-0.90 +6.8 18
1930-03-09 @ First Vienna L 1-256.6 1540 1428 50.76% 20.91% 28.33%+0.90 -6.8 20
1930-03-09 Wacker Wien D 0-054.2 1471 1368 56.33% 20.71% 22.96%+1.18 -1.2 17
1930-03-09 @ Wiener AC D 0-054.2 1368 1471 22.96% 20.71% 56.33%-1.18 +1.2 11
1930-03-29 Hertha Wien W 3-137.1 1435 1280 61.76% 20.20% 18.04%+1.69 +4.9 20
1930-03-29 @ First Vienna L 1-337.1 1280 1435 18.04% 20.20% 61.76%-1.69 -4.9 10
1930-03-30 Wiener AC L 2-351.3 1383 1470 31.40% 21.05% 47.55%-0.66 -4.4 13
1930-03-30 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-251.3 1470 1383 47.55% 21.05% 31.40%+0.66 +4.4 19
1930-03-30 Wacker Wien W 6-136.3 1533 1370 62.56% 20.10% 17.34%+1.77 +10.6 22
1930-03-30 @ Rapid Wien L 1-636.3 1370 1533 17.34% 20.10% 62.56%-1.77 -10.6 11
1930-03-30 Admira Wien L 1-343.5 1377 1511 25.86% 20.77% 53.37%-1.11 -6.8 11
1930-03-30 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-143.5 1511 1377 53.37% 20.77% 25.86%+1.11 +6.8 20
1930-04-05 First Vienna L 3-459.1 1436 1440 42.81% 21.20% 35.99%+0.14 -5.5 16
1930-04-05 @ Austria Wien W 4-359.1 1440 1436 35.99% 21.20% 42.81%-0.14 +5.5 22
1930-04-05 Hertha Wien W 2-034.2 1370 1275 55.54% 20.76% 23.70%+1.11 +7.3 13
1930-04-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-234.2 1275 1370 23.70% 20.76% 55.54%-1.11 -7.3 10
1930-04-12 Admira Wien D 1-157.3 1329 1517 20.27% 20.26% 59.47%-1.64 +1.3 12
1930-04-12 @ FC Nicholson D 1-157.3 1517 1329 59.47% 20.26% 20.27%+1.64 -1.3 21
1930-04-19 Austria Wien L 1-344.5 1378 1430 36.10% 21.17% 42.73%-0.32 -8.9 13
1930-04-19 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-144.5 1430 1378 42.73% 21.17% 36.10%+0.32 +8.9 18
1930-04-20 First Vienna W 3-253.3 1516 1446 52.59% 20.94% 26.47%+0.87 +3.8 23
1930-04-20 @ Admira Wien L 2-353.3 1446 1516 26.47% 20.94% 52.59%-0.87 -3.8 22
1930-04-20 Wiener AC W 2-044.5 1544 1474 52.51% 20.94% 26.55%+0.86 +8.0 24
1930-04-20 @ Rapid Wien L 0-244.5 1474 1544 26.55% 20.94% 52.51%-0.86 -8.0 19
1930-04-26 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-250.5 1369 1378 42.26% 21.21% 36.53%+0.10 +4.9 15
1930-04-26 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-350.5 1378 1369 36.53% 21.21% 42.26%-0.10 -4.9 13
1930-04-27 FC Nicholson L 1-245.9 1307 1331 40.04% 21.21% 38.75%-0.05 -5.6 7
1930-04-27 @ Hakoah Vienna W 2-145.9 1331 1307 38.75% 21.21% 40.04%+0.05 +5.6 14
1930-05-03 Admira Wien L 1-445.4 1439 1520 32.24% 21.08% 46.68%-0.60 -11.5 18
1930-05-03 @ Austria Wien W 4-145.4 1520 1439 46.68% 21.08% 32.24%+0.60 +11.5 25
1930-05-03 Hertha Wien W 3-243.2 1466 1268 65.64% 19.66% 14.70%+2.11 +2.2 21
1930-05-03 @ Wiener AC L 2-343.2 1268 1466 14.70% 19.66% 65.64%-2.11 -2.2 10
1930-05-03 FC Nicholson L 1-249.2 1373 1336 48.34% 21.10% 30.56%+0.54 -6.5 13
1930-05-03 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-149.2 1336 1373 30.56% 21.10% 48.34%-0.54 +6.5 16
1930-05-04 Floridsdorfer W 4-247.6 1359 1374 41.26% 21.21% 37.53%+0.03 +8.2 13
1930-05-04 @ Wacker Wien L 2-447.6 1374 1359 37.53% 21.21% 41.26%-0.03 -8.2 15
1930-05-07 FC Nicholson W 3-033.0 1469 1343 58.80% 20.51% 20.69%+1.40 +9.4 23
1930-05-07 @ Wiener AC L 0-333.0 1343 1469 20.69% 20.51% 58.80%-1.40 -9.4 16
1930-05-11 Hakoah Vienna W 2-140.4 1478 1301 63.74% 19.94% 16.31%+1.90 +2.6 25
1930-05-11 @ Wiener AC L 1-240.4 1301 1478 16.31% 19.94% 63.74%-1.90 -2.6 7
1930-05-18 Floridsdorfer D 0-056.1 1531 1366 62.68% 20.09% 17.23%+1.78 -1.7 26
1930-05-18 @ Admira Wien D 0-056.1 1366 1531 17.23% 20.09% 62.68%-1.78 +1.7 16
1930-05-18 Hakoah Vienna L 4-562.8 1428 1298 59.16% 20.47% 20.37%+1.43 -7.2 18
1930-05-18 @ Austria Wien W 5-462.8 1298 1428 20.37% 20.47% 59.16%-1.43 +7.2 9
1930-05-18 Rapid Wien L 0-233.1 1265 1552 12.75% 18.92% 68.33%-2.59 -4.1 10
1930-05-18 @ Hertha Wien W 2-033.1 1552 1265 68.33% 18.92% 12.75%+2.59 +4.1 26
1930-05-18 First Vienna L 1-539.4 1367 1442 33.04% 21.10% 45.85%-0.54 -15.2 13
1930-05-18 @ Wacker Wien W 5-139.4 1442 1367 45.85% 21.10% 33.04%+0.54 +15.2 24
1930-05-18 Wiener AC W 3-256.9 1366 1480 28.07% 20.90% 51.03%-0.92 +6.5 15
1930-05-18 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-356.9 1480 1366 51.03% 20.90% 28.07%+0.92 -6.5 25
1930-05-21 Rapid Wien L 2-541.9 1333 1556 17.26% 19.84% 62.89%-1.97 -5.8 16
1930-05-21 @ FC Nicholson W 5-241.9 1556 1333 62.89% 19.84% 17.26%+1.97 +5.8 28
1930-05-21 Hakoah Vienna W 4-244.2 1352 1306 49.60% 21.06% 29.33%+0.63 +6.7 15
1930-05-21 @ Wacker Wien L 2-444.2 1306 1352 29.33% 21.06% 49.60%-0.63 -6.8 9
1930-05-24 FC Nicholson L 1-341.0 1261 1328 34.12% 21.13% 44.75%-0.46 -8.5 10
1930-05-24 @ Hertha Wien W 3-141.0 1328 1261 44.75% 21.13% 34.12%+0.46 +8.5 18
1930-05-24 Wacker Wien L 1-251.3 1420 1359 51.51% 20.99% 27.50%+0.78 -6.9 18
1930-05-24 @ Austria Wien W 2-151.3 1359 1420 27.50% 20.99% 51.51%-0.78 +6.9 17
1930-05-25 Hakoah Vienna D 4-468.3 1530 1299 68.19% 19.20% 12.61%+2.42 -1.0 27
1930-05-25 @ Admira Wien D 4-468.3 1299 1530 12.61% 19.20% 68.19%-2.42 +1.0 10
1930-05-25 Rapid Wien L 1-539.0 1373 1562 20.16% 20.24% 59.60%-1.65 -9.9 15
1930-05-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-139.0 1562 1373 59.60% 20.24% 20.16%+1.65 +9.9 30
1930-05-29 Floridsdorfer L 0-433.2 1300 1368 33.92% 21.13% 44.96%-0.47 -18.6 10
1930-05-29 @ Hakoah Vienna W 4-033.2 1368 1300 44.96% 21.13% 33.92%+0.47 +18.6 18
1930-06-03 Wacker Wien W 3-141.0 1529 1366 62.47% 20.11% 17.42%+1.76 +4.8 29
1930-06-03 @ Admira Wien L 1-341.0 1366 1529 17.42% 20.11% 62.47%-1.76 -4.8 17
1930-06-04 Floridsdorfer W 5-033.8 1457 1386 52.59% 20.94% 26.48%+0.87 +18.7 26
1930-06-04 @ First Vienna L 0-533.8 1386 1457 26.48% 20.94% 52.59%-0.87 -18.7 18
1930-06-05 Austria Wien L 3-454.6 1363 1414 36.26% 21.17% 42.56%-0.31 -4.8 15
1930-06-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-354.6 1414 1363 42.56% 21.17% 36.26%+0.31 +4.8 20
1930-06-07 First Vienna L 1-633.3 1281 1476 19.70% 20.19% 60.11%-1.70 -11.9 10
1930-06-07 @ Hakoah Vienna W 6-133.3 1476 1281 60.11% 20.19% 19.70%+1.70 +11.9 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1929-09-29 17.80% @ Hertha Wien 1287 4 Admira Wien 1503 2
2 1930-03-02 18.74% Austria Wien 1412 8 @ Rapid Wien 1559 4
3 1930-05-18 20.37% Hakoah Vienna 1298 5 @ Austria Wien 1428 4
4 1930-02-09 22.92% @ Floridsdorfer 1373 3 Rapid Wien 1534 2
5 1929-12-01 23.37% Floridsdorfer 1365 1 @ Wiener AC 1464 0
6 1930-02-16 23.52% Wiener AC 1456 5 @ Admira Wien 1553 2
7 1929-11-24 24.64% @ Hertha Wien 1285 1 First Vienna 1429 0
8 1930-03-02 27.17% First Vienna 1418 4 @ Wiener AC 1482 2
9 1930-05-24 27.50% Wacker Wien 1359 2 @ Austria Wien 1420 1
10 1930-05-18 28.07% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1366 3 Wiener AC 1480 2
11 1930-03-09 28.33% @ First Vienna 1428 2 Rapid Wien 1540 1
12 1930-02-16 30.40% @ Hertha Wien 1285 2 Floridsdorfer 1380 1
13 1930-05-03 30.56% FC Nicholson 1336 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1373 1
14 1929-10-27 30.98% Wacker Wien 1372 5 @ Floridsdorfer 1405 0
15 1930-01-26 33.08% Austria Wien 1404 3 @ First Vienna 1421 0
16 1929-11-02 34.82% @ FC Nicholson 1341 3 Wacker Wien 1402 2
17 1929-12-01 34.87% @ FC Nicholson 1331 1 Wiener Sport-Club 1392 0
18 1929-10-20 35.37% @ Austria Wien 1365 3 Floridsdorfer 1422 0
19 1930-04-05 35.99% First Vienna 1440 4 @ Austria Wien 1436 3
20 1929-10-20 38.09% @ Hakoah Vienna 1340 1 Wacker Wien 1378 0
21 1930-04-27 38.75% FC Nicholson 1331 2 @ Hakoah Vienna 1307 1
22 1929-09-29 39.12% Wiener Sport-Club 1401 1 @ Austria Wien 1374 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-10-27 30.39 Wacker Wien 5 1372 30.98% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1405 47.91% 21.12%
2 1930-02-23 28.81 @ Rapid Wien 6 1530 42.42% Admira Wien 0 1537 36.38% 21.20%
3 1929-12-01 20.11 Admira Wien 6 1533 55.71% @ Wacker Wien 0 1380 23.69% 20.60%
4 1930-03-02 18.71 Austria Wien 8 1412 18.74% @ Rapid Wien 4 1559 60.97% 20.29%
5 1930-06-04 18.68 @ First Vienna 5 1457 52.59% Floridsdorfer 0 1386 26.48% 20.94%
6 1930-05-29 18.59 Floridsdorfer 4 1368 44.96% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1300 33.92% 21.13%
7 1930-01-26 18.14 Austria Wien 3 1404 33.08% @ First Vienna 0 1421 45.75% 21.16%
8 1929-10-20 17.38 @ Austria Wien 3 1365 35.37% Floridsdorfer 0 1422 43.47% 21.16%
9 1929-08-18 16.24 @ Rapid Wien 5 1482 56.83% FC Nicholson 0 1375 22.50% 20.67%
10 1929-09-08 15.96 @ Austria Wien 5 1364 43.65% FC Nicholson 1 1362 35.15% 21.19%
11 1930-02-16 15.79 Wiener AC 5 1456 23.52% @ Admira Wien 2 1553 55.73% 20.75%
12 1929-11-10 15.79 Austria Wien 3 1377 40.23% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1342 38.57% 21.20%
13 1930-05-18 15.17 First Vienna 5 1442 45.85% @ Wacker Wien 1 1367 33.04% 21.10%
14 1929-10-20 14.57 Admira Wien 3 1494 43.96% @ First Vienna 0 1433 34.90% 21.15%
15 1929-09-29 12.78 @ Hertha Wien 4 1287 17.80% Admira Wien 2 1503 62.27% 19.93%
16 1929-11-17 11.99 Austria Wien 6 1392 48.66% @ Hertha Wien 2 1297 30.33% 21.01%
17 1930-06-07 11.90 First Vienna 6 1476 60.11% @ Hakoah Vienna 1 1281 19.70% 20.19%
18 1930-02-16 11.60 @ First Vienna 4 1407 46.37% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1385 32.48% 21.15%
19 1930-05-03 11.52 Admira Wien 4 1520 46.68% @ Austria Wien 1 1439 32.24% 21.08%
20 1929-09-08 11.40 Admira Wien 3 1492 53.22% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1360 26.00% 20.78%
21 1929-10-20 11.36 @ Rapid Wien 5 1505 55.87% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1407 23.39% 20.74%
22 1930-03-02 10.80 First Vienna 4 1418 27.17% @ Wiener AC 2 1482 51.86% 20.97%
23 1930-03-30 10.63 @ Rapid Wien 6 1533 62.56% Wacker Wien 1 1370 17.34% 20.10%
24 1930-02-23 10.38 Wiener AC 2 1472 42.37% @ Austria Wien 0 1422 36.45% 21.18%
25 1930-05-25 9.93 Rapid Wien 5 1562 59.60% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1373 20.16% 20.24%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-05-25 68.3 @ Admira Wien 4 1530 68.19% Hakoah Vienna 4 1299 12.61% 19.20%
2 1929-08-31 64.9 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1414 42.15% First Vienna 3 1423 36.65% 21.21%
3 1929-08-31 64.2 @ Wiener AC 3 1444 53.82% Austria Wien 3 1363 25.31% 20.87%
4 1930-02-16 63.2 @ FC Nicholson 3 1337 31.63% Austria Wien 3 1423 47.32% 21.06%
5 1929-11-12 63.1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1391 46.97% Floridsdorfer 3 1365 31.89% 21.14%
6 1930-05-18 62.8 Hakoah Vienna 5 1298 20.37% @ Austria Wien 4 1428 59.16% 20.47%
7 1929-11-24 62.1 @ Wiener AC 1 1463 33.63% Admira Wien 1 1533 45.25% 21.12%
8 1930-02-09 60.3 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1373 22.92% Rapid Wien 2 1534 56.54% 20.53%
9 1929-09-22 59.9 @ Wiener AC 1 1438 35.09% Rapid Wien 1 1497 43.76% 21.15%
10 1929-09-08 59.2 @ Rapid Wien 1 1498 54.20% Floridsdorfer 1 1414 24.95% 20.85%
11 1929-09-01 59.1 @ Admira Wien 0 1492 42.60% Rapid Wien 0 1498 36.20% 21.20%
12 1930-04-05 59.1 First Vienna 4 1440 35.99% @ Austria Wien 3 1436 42.81% 21.20%
13 1929-10-19 58.9 @ Hertha Wien 2 1301 24.91% Wiener AC 2 1443 54.39% 20.70%
14 1930-03-02 58.2 Austria Wien 8 1412 18.74% @ Rapid Wien 4 1559 60.97% 20.29%
15 1930-03-02 58.2 @ Wacker Wien 2 1369 47.53% FC Nicholson 2 1338 31.34% 21.13%
16 1930-02-16 57.9 Wiener AC 5 1456 23.52% @ Admira Wien 2 1553 55.73% 20.75%
17 1929-09-08 57.8 @ Hertha Wien 2 1286 29.82% Wacker Wien 2 1386 49.19% 20.99%
18 1929-11-10 57.4 @ Rapid Wien 0 1523 56.50% First Vienna 0 1419 22.80% 20.70%
19 1930-04-12 57.3 @ FC Nicholson 1 1329 20.27% Admira Wien 1 1517 59.47% 20.26%
20 1929-10-12 56.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1407 39.71% First Vienna 1 1433 39.08% 21.21%
21 1930-05-18 56.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1366 28.07% Wiener AC 2 1480 51.03% 20.90%
22 1930-03-09 56.6 @ First Vienna 2 1428 28.33% Rapid Wien 1 1540 50.76% 20.91%
23 1930-05-18 56.1 @ Admira Wien 0 1531 62.68% Floridsdorfer 0 1366 17.23% 20.09%
24 1930-03-02 55.9 First Vienna 4 1418 27.17% @ Wiener AC 2 1482 51.86% 20.97%
25 1929-09-29 55.7 @ Hertha Wien 4 1287 17.80% Admira Wien 2 1503 62.27% 19.93%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-08-18 32.9 @ Rapid Wien 5 1482 56.83% FC Nicholson 0 1375 22.50% 20.67%
2 1930-05-07 33.0 @ Wiener AC 3 1469 58.80% FC Nicholson 0 1343 20.69% 20.51%
3 1930-05-18 33.1 Rapid Wien 2 1552 68.33% @ Hertha Wien 0 1265 12.75% 18.92%
4 1930-05-29 33.2 Floridsdorfer 4 1368 44.96% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1300 33.92% 21.13%
5 1930-06-07 33.3 First Vienna 6 1476 60.11% @ Hakoah Vienna 1 1281 19.70% 20.19%
6 1930-06-04 33.8 @ First Vienna 5 1457 52.59% Floridsdorfer 0 1386 26.48% 20.94%
7 1930-04-05 34.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1370 55.54% Hertha Wien 0 1275 23.70% 20.76%
8 1929-12-01 35.5 Admira Wien 6 1533 55.71% @ Wacker Wien 0 1380 23.69% 20.60%
9 1929-09-08 35.7 Admira Wien 3 1492 53.22% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1360 26.00% 20.78%
10 1930-03-30 36.3 @ Rapid Wien 6 1533 62.56% Wacker Wien 1 1370 17.34% 20.10%
11 1929-11-10 36.8 Austria Wien 3 1377 40.23% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1342 38.57% 21.20%
12 1930-03-29 37.1 @ First Vienna 3 1435 61.76% Hertha Wien 1 1280 18.04% 20.20%
13 1930-03-09 37.4 @ Austria Wien 3 1431 60.82% Hertha Wien 1 1285 18.87% 20.30%
14 1930-02-16 38.2 @ Rapid Wien 3 1526 66.69% Hakoah Vienna 1 1315 13.83% 19.48%
15 1929-10-27 38.3 Wiener AC 2 1442 48.73% @ Hakoah Vienna 0 1346 30.26% 21.01%
16 1929-11-17 38.4 First Vienna 2 1420 46.62% @ FC Nicholson 0 1340 32.30% 21.08%
17 1929-09-08 38.5 @ Austria Wien 5 1364 43.65% FC Nicholson 1 1362 35.15% 21.19%
18 1929-10-27 38.7 Wacker Wien 5 1372 30.98% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1405 47.91% 21.12%
19 1929-11-12 38.7 @ Admira Wien 6 1518 63.24% FC Nicholson 2 1347 16.75% 20.01%
20 1930-05-25 39.0 Rapid Wien 5 1562 59.60% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1373 20.16% 20.24%
21 1929-11-24 39.1 Rapid Wien 6 1522 60.19% @ Hakoah Vienna 2 1327 19.63% 20.18%
22 1929-10-20 39.3 @ Rapid Wien 5 1505 55.87% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1407 23.39% 20.74%
23 1930-05-18 39.4 First Vienna 5 1442 45.85% @ Wacker Wien 1 1367 33.04% 21.10%
24 1929-10-20 39.5 @ Austria Wien 3 1365 35.37% Floridsdorfer 0 1422 43.47% 21.16%
25 1929-11-17 39.5 Austria Wien 6 1392 48.66% @ Hertha Wien 2 1297 30.33% 21.01%