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1930-31 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

First Vienna

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

First Vienna

6.83 points above expected

29 points · 22.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Slovan Wien

5.09 points below expected

7 points · 12.09 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 First Vienna 18 12 5 1 29 53 25 +28 22.17 +6.83
2 Admira Wien 18 12 3 3 27 68 37 +31 24.19 +2.81
3 Rapid Wien 18 12 2 4 26 64 33 +31 24.55 +1.45
4 Austria Wien 18 9 1 8 19 51 40 +11 19.88 -0.88
5 FC Nicholson 18 7 3 8 17 38 38 0 15.55 +1.45
6 Wacker Wien 18 5 6 7 16 37 51 -14 16.02 -0.02
7 Wiener AC 18 6 3 9 15 44 47 -3 17.81 -2.81
8 Wiener Sport-Club 18 6 0 12 12 48 65 -17 13.94 -1.94
9 Floridsdorfer 18 4 4 10 12 31 59 -28 13.79 -1.79
10 Slovan Wien 18 1 5 12 7 21 60 -39 12.09 -5.09

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 29 22.17 +6.83
2 Admira Wien 27 24.19 +2.81
3 Rapid Wien 26 24.55 +1.45
4 FC Nicholson 17 15.55 +1.45
5 Wacker Wien 16 16.02 -0.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Slovan Wien 7 12.09 -5.09
2 Wiener AC 15 17.81 -2.81
3 Wiener Sport-Club 12 13.94 -1.94
4 Floridsdorfer 12 13.79 -1.79
5 Austria Wien 19 19.88 -0.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 6 Mar 8 – Apr 25 1 in 85
2 Admira Wien 6 Sep 27 – Nov 30 1 in 48
3 Rapid Wien 7 Sep 7 – Nov 8 1 in 37
4 Floridsdorfer 2 Apr 25 – May 9 1 in 10
5 FC Nicholson 2 Mar 22 – Mar 29 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 4 Sep 6 – Oct 5 1 in 33
2 FC Nicholson 4 Oct 5 – Nov 8 1 in 16
3 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Mar 21 – Apr 25 1 in 16
4 Slovan Wien 6 Mar 28 – Jun 13 1 in 14
5 Floridsdorfer 5 Mar 8 – Apr 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 14 Oct 5 – Jun 7 1 in 95
2 Slovan Wien 4 Aug 31 – Sep 27 1 in 17
3 Floridsdorfer 4 Apr 25 – Jun 13 1 in 13
4 FC Nicholson 3 Mar 22 – Apr 19 1 in 11
5 Admira Wien 6 Sep 27 – Nov 30 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slovan Wien 16 Sep 13 – Jun 13 1 in 90
2 Wiener AC 5 Aug 31 – Oct 5 1 in 15
3 FC Nicholson 6 Sep 27 – Nov 16 1 in 13
4 Rapid Wien 3 Mar 15 – Mar 29 1 in 9
5 Floridsdorfer 7 Nov 2 – Apr 19 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
First Vienna 1714 29 +36 9 6.9 +2.1
Admira Wien 1703 27 -29 6 7.4 -1.4
Rapid Wien 1722 26 +10 8 7.2 +0.8
Austria Wien 1586 19 -37 3 5.0 -2.0
FC Nicholson 1547 17 +32 5 4.0 +1.0
Wacker Wien 1460 16 -45 3 4.3 -1.3
Wiener AC 1568 15 +30 5 5.0 -0.0
Floridsdorfer 1444 12 +16 7 4.5 +2.5
Wiener Sport-Club 1489 12 +47 4 3.1 +0.9
Slovan Wien 1342 7 -61 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW AW FN FV FLO RW SW WW WA WS
Admira Wien —
1-1-0
3.57
1-1-0
4.18
0-0-2
3.47
2-0-0
4.22
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
4.19
Austria Wien
0-1-1
2.06
 —
1-0-1
3.52
0-0-2
2.35
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
3.94
2-0-0
3.29
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.76
FC Nicholson
0-1-1
1.45
1-0-1
2.10
 —
0-0-2
1.81
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
1.34
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.37
2-0-0
2.93
First Vienna
2-0-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.82
 —
1-1-0
4.01
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
4.50
0-2-0
3.73
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.15
Floridsdorfer
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
1.85
1-1-0
2.36
0-1-1
1.63
 —
0-0-2
1.56
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.04
1-0-1
2.78
Rapid Wien
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
4.30
1-0-1
3.26
2-0-0
4.08
 —
2-0-0
4.50
1-1-0
4.21
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
4.25
Slovan Wien
0-0-2
1.13
1-0-1
1.69
0-1-1
2.22
0-1-1
1.15
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.15
 —
0-2-0
2.19
0-1-1
1.68
0-0-2
2.71
Wacker Wien
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.59
0-2-0
1.90
1-1-0
3.34
0-1-1
1.43
0-2-0
3.43
 —
2-0-0
2.54
1-0-1
3.20
Wiener AC
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
1.93
1-1-0
3.59
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
3.95
0-0-2
3.09
 —
2-0-0
3.26
Wiener Sport-Club
1-0-1
1.46
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
1.39
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.36
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +4.3
Allowed 0.82 -5.0
Differential 0.94 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—1.67%2.78%2.78%2.78%1.67%11.67%
11.67%8.89%4.44%2.78%1.67%4.44%23.89%
22.78%4.44%4.44%3.33%2.22%4.44%21.67%
32.78%2.78%3.33%4.44%2.22%2.22%17.78%
42.78%1.67%2.22%2.22%—1.11%10.00%
5+1.67%4.44%4.44%2.22%1.11%1.11%15.00%
Total11.67%23.89%21.67%17.78%10.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.53 2.53 +0.00
SD 1.96 1.96 3.01
CV 0.78 0.78 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
311.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
4——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
5+—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.78 2.06 +1.72
SD 2.05 1.39 2.76
CV 0.54 0.68 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
1——5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3———5.56%11.11%—16.67%
411.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
5+—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 2.22 +0.61
SD 2.01 1.48 2.97
CV 0.71 0.66 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%33.33%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%22.22%11.11%22.22%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.11 +0.00
SD 1.94 1.71 2.97
CV 0.92 0.81 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 1.39 +1.56
SD 2.15 1.14 2.12
CV 0.73 0.82 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%——5.56%22.22%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2——11.11%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—11.11%50.00%11.11%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 3.28 -1.56
SD 1.36 2.32 2.91
CV 0.79 0.71 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1———————
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
35.56%——11.11%——16.67%
45.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
5+5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
Total22.22%27.78%5.56%33.33%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 1.83 +1.72
SD 2.12 1.42 2.61
CV 0.60 0.78 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
1—22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%55.56%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%16.67%11.11%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 3.33 -2.17
SD 0.79 2.38 2.36
CV 0.67 0.71 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————11.11%—11.11%
1—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%11.11%—5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
Total5.56%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.83 -0.78
SD 1.59 1.95 2.29
CV 0.77 0.69 —
Max 6 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
25.56%—5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%11.11%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.61 -0.17
SD 1.50 2.23 3.07
CV 0.62 0.85 —
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
1————5.56%5.56%11.11%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
5+—5.56%—11.11%—5.56%22.22%
Total—27.78%—27.78%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 3.61 -0.94
SD 2.45 2.30 3.39
CV 0.92 0.64 —
Max 9 9 +6
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1722 26 24.55 +1.45 71.2% 12 19 22 25 27 30 36
First Vienna 1714 29 22.17 +6.83 97.8% 13 17 20 22 25 28 32
Admira Wien 1703 27 24.19 +2.81 83.9% 14 19 22 24 26 30 35
Austria Wien 1586 19 19.88 -0.88 46.2% 7 14 17 20 22 26 33
Wiener AC 1568 15 17.81 -2.81 24.3% 0 12 16 18 20 23 28
FC Nicholson 1547 17 15.55 +1.45 69.9% 5 10 13 15 18 21 26
Wiener Sport-Club 1489 12 13.94 -1.94 36.1% 4 8 11 14 16 20 26
Wacker Wien 1460 16 16.02 -0.02 55.2% 4 10 14 16 19 22 27
Floridsdorfer 1444 12 13.79 -1.79 37.8% 2 8 11 14 16 20 26
Slovan Wien 1342 7 12.09 -5.09 8.5% 3 7 10 12 14 18 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Slight Edge
46.67%17.78%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
94 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
038.76250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.63 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
First Vienna, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.82 * Some Luck: 2.82 to 4.24 * Lucky: 4.24 to 5.65 * Wild Swing: 5.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.74 * Off: 1.74 to 2.31 * Way Off: 2.31 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.17 points
Some Luck
03.539
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.453
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.80%
First Vienna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.50%
Slovan Wien
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.71
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
77%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Frequent
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
39%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.83
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.36
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1770.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
First Vienna16.70%22.10%26.60%17.30%8.30%4.80%2.60%1.30%0.30%—
Admira Wien33.20%31.40%19.10%9.40%3.90%1.90%0.80%0.20%0.10%—
Rapid Wien41.80%27.50%15.40%8.70%3.90%1.80%0.60%0.30%——
Austria Wien5.60%10.00%17.20%25.10%17.90%10.60%6.50%3.90%2.60%0.60%
FC Nicholson0.20%1.50%4.00%8.20%14.50%16.50%18.00%16.60%12.90%7.60%
Wacker Wien0.80%1.40%4.80%8.10%13.00%19.10%18.50%14.30%12.40%7.60%
Wiener AC1.40%4.20%9.30%15.50%20.80%19.70%11.60%9.40%6.00%2.10%
Wiener Sport-Club0.10%1.40%1.20%3.10%7.00%9.50%18.10%21.40%19.50%18.70%
Floridsdorfer0.20%0.40%1.80%3.30%8.00%9.70%14.80%16.90%24.00%20.90%
Slovan Wien—0.10%0.60%1.30%2.70%6.40%8.50%15.70%22.20%42.50%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Admira Wien 100%
Austria Wien 100%
FC Nicholson 100%
First Vienna 100%
Floridsdorfer 100%
Rapid Wien 100%
Slovan Wien 100%
Wacker Wien 100%
Wiener AC 100%
Wiener Sport-Club 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1930-08-30 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-253.0 1493 1520 44.92% 18.85% 36.23%+0.12 +15.4 2
1930-08-30 @ FC Nicholson L 2-553.0 1520 1493 36.23% 18.85% 44.92%-0.12 -15.4 0
1930-08-31 Floridsdorfer W 6-250.9 1637 1523 61.78% 18.47% 19.75%+1.64 +11.6 2
1930-08-31 @ Admira Wien L 2-650.9 1523 1637 19.75% 18.47% 61.78%-1.64 -11.6 0
1930-08-31 Rapid Wien W 4-264.4 1567 1664 35.14% 18.80% 46.06%-0.62 +13.7 2
1930-08-31 @ Austria Wien L 2-464.4 1664 1567 46.06% 18.80% 35.14%+0.62 -13.7 0
1930-08-31 Wiener AC D 1-163.6 1451 1597 28.84% 18.66% 52.50%-1.15 +1.1 1
1930-08-31 @ Slovan Wien D 1-163.6 1597 1451 52.50% 18.66% 28.84%+1.15 -1.1 1
1930-08-31 First Vienna D 1-166.2 1518 1606 36.42% 18.81% 44.77%-0.52 +0.4 1
1930-08-31 @ Wacker Wien D 1-166.2 1606 1518 44.77% 18.81% 36.42%+0.52 -0.4 1
1930-09-06 FC Nicholson W 3-044.4 1606 1508 60.08% 18.55% 21.38%+1.45 +13.4 3
1930-09-06 @ First Vienna L 0-344.4 1508 1606 21.38% 18.55% 60.08%-1.45 -13.4 2
1930-09-06 Wacker Wien L 2-366.7 1596 1519 57.96% 18.63% 23.41%+1.24 -10.4 1
1930-09-06 @ Wiener AC W 3-266.7 1519 1596 23.41% 18.63% 57.96%-1.24 +10.4 3
1930-09-07 Rapid Wien L 0-250.6 1511 1650 29.73% 18.69% 51.58%-1.07 -12.3 0
1930-09-07 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-050.6 1650 1511 51.58% 18.69% 29.73%+1.07 +12.3 2
1930-09-07 Austria Wien W 2-052.6 1452 1581 31.00% 18.72% 50.28%-0.96 +19.1 3
1930-09-07 @ Slovan Wien L 0-252.6 1581 1452 50.28% 18.72% 31.00%+0.96 -19.1 2
1930-09-07 Admira Wien L 1-948.6 1505 1649 29.11% 18.67% 52.22%-1.12 -36.2 0
1930-09-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 9-148.6 1649 1505 52.22% 18.67% 29.11%+1.12 +36.2 4
1930-09-13 Slovan Wien D 1-161.9 1529 1471 55.79% 18.70% 25.51%+1.03 -1.4 4
1930-09-13 @ Wacker Wien D 1-161.9 1471 1529 25.51% 18.70% 55.79%-1.03 +1.4 4
1930-09-14 First Vienna L 1-364.8 1685 1619 56.71% 18.67% 24.62%+1.12 -18.5 4
1930-09-14 @ Admira Wien W 3-164.8 1619 1685 24.62% 18.67% 56.71%-1.12 +18.5 5
1930-09-14 Floridsdorfer W 7-144.5 1562 1499 56.31% 18.68% 25.01%+1.08 +24.3 4
1930-09-14 @ Austria Wien L 1-744.5 1499 1562 25.01% 18.68% 56.31%-1.08 -24.3 0
1930-09-14 Wiener AC W 8-048.9 1495 1586 36.01% 18.81% 45.18%-0.56 +63.6 4
1930-09-14 @ FC Nicholson L 0-848.9 1586 1495 45.18% 18.81% 36.01%+0.56 -63.6 1
1930-09-14 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-040.7 1663 1469 68.57% 17.98% 13.45%+2.49 +11.5 4
1930-09-14 @ Rapid Wien L 0-440.7 1469 1663 13.45% 17.98% 68.57%-2.49 -11.5 0
1930-09-27 FC Nicholson D 1-163.0 1473 1559 36.65% 18.82% 44.53%-0.51 +0.4 5
1930-09-27 @ Slovan Wien D 1-163.0 1559 1473 44.53% 18.82% 36.65%+0.51 -0.3 5
1930-09-27 Admira Wien L 1-256.3 1522 1667 29.04% 18.67% 52.30%-1.13 -6.0 1
1930-09-27 @ Wiener AC W 2-156.3 1667 1522 52.30% 18.67% 29.04%+1.13 +6.0 6
1930-09-28 Wacker Wien W 2-153.1 1586 1528 55.83% 18.70% 25.48%+1.04 +5.4 6
1930-09-28 @ Austria Wien L 1-253.1 1528 1586 25.48% 18.70% 55.83%-1.04 -5.4 4
1930-09-28 Rapid Wien L 0-355.4 1638 1674 43.65% 18.85% 37.50%+0.02 -24.6 5
1930-09-28 @ First Vienna W 3-055.4 1674 1638 37.50% 18.85% 43.65%-0.02 +24.6 6
1930-09-28 Floridsdorfer W 3-147.6 1457 1475 46.25% 18.85% 34.90%+0.23 +12.2 2
1930-09-28 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-347.6 1475 1457 34.90% 18.85% 46.25%-0.23 -12.2 0
1930-10-04 Slovan Wien W 3-042.7 1673 1473 68.99% 17.93% 13.08%+2.55 +8.5 8
1930-10-04 @ Admira Wien L 0-342.7 1473 1673 13.08% 17.93% 68.99%-2.55 -8.6 5
1930-10-05 Wacker Wien L 2-560.5 1558 1522 53.18% 18.76% 28.05%+0.80 -21.4 5
1930-10-05 @ FC Nicholson W 5-260.5 1522 1558 28.05% 18.76% 53.18%-0.80 +21.4 6
1930-10-05 First Vienna D 2-268.0 1463 1613 28.33% 18.65% 53.02%-1.19 +0.8 1
1930-10-05 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-268.0 1613 1463 53.02% 18.65% 28.33%+1.19 -0.8 6
1930-10-05 Wiener AC W 6-355.2 1699 1516 67.72% 18.06% 14.22%+2.37 +6.2 8
1930-10-05 @ Rapid Wien L 3-655.2 1516 1699 14.22% 18.06% 67.72%-2.37 -6.3 1
1930-10-05 Austria Wien W 4-366.1 1469 1591 31.86% 18.74% 49.40%-0.89 +8.7 4
1930-10-05 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 3-466.1 1591 1469 49.40% 18.74% 31.86%+0.89 -8.7 6
1930-10-11 Wiener Sport-Club W 7-246.7 1612 1478 63.64% 18.36% 17.99%+1.85 +12.8 8
1930-10-11 @ First Vienna L 2-746.7 1478 1612 17.99% 18.36% 63.64%-1.85 -12.8 4
1930-10-12 FC Nicholson W 4-044.6 1583 1537 54.36% 18.73% 26.90%+0.90 +21.5 8
1930-10-12 @ Austria Wien L 0-444.6 1537 1583 26.90% 18.73% 54.36%-0.90 -21.5 5
1930-10-12 Rapid Wien L 1-448.9 1464 1705 18.93% 18.19% 62.88%-2.16 -10.1 5
1930-10-12 @ Slovan Wien W 4-148.9 1705 1464 62.88% 18.19% 18.93%+2.16 +10.1 10
1930-10-12 Admira Wien L 1-552.1 1544 1681 29.90% 18.69% 51.41%-1.06 -19.5 6
1930-10-12 @ Wacker Wien W 5-152.1 1681 1544 51.41% 18.69% 29.90%+1.06 +19.5 10
1930-10-12 Floridsdorfer W 2-043.3 1510 1463 54.43% 18.73% 26.84%+0.91 +11.3 3
1930-10-12 @ Wiener AC L 0-243.3 1463 1510 26.84% 18.73% 54.43%-0.91 -11.3 1
1930-10-19 Admira Wien L 1-353.6 1515 1701 24.36% 18.50% 57.14%-1.57 -9.0 5
1930-10-19 @ FC Nicholson W 3-153.6 1701 1515 57.14% 18.50% 24.36%+1.57 +9.0 12
1930-10-19 Austria Wien W 3-155.6 1625 1604 51.33% 18.79% 29.88%+0.64 +10.7 10
1930-10-19 @ First Vienna L 1-355.6 1604 1625 29.88% 18.79% 51.33%-0.64 -10.7 8
1930-10-19 Slovan Wien W 5-248.1 1452 1454 48.34% 18.83% 32.82%+0.39 +14.2 3
1930-10-19 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-548.1 1454 1452 32.82% 18.83% 48.34%-0.39 -14.2 5
1930-10-19 Wacker Wien W 2-152.5 1715 1524 68.35% 18.00% 13.65%+2.46 +3.1 12
1930-10-19 @ Rapid Wien L 1-252.5 1524 1715 13.65% 18.00% 68.35%-2.46 -3.1 6
1930-10-19 Wiener AC L 2-455.3 1465 1521 40.92% 18.85% 40.23%-0.18 -12.4 4
1930-10-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-255.3 1521 1465 40.23% 18.85% 40.92%+0.18 +12.4 5
1930-10-25 Wiener AC W 5-359.0 1593 1533 56.01% 18.69% 25.30%+1.05 +7.8 10
1930-10-25 @ Austria Wien L 3-559.0 1533 1593 25.30% 18.69% 56.01%-1.05 -7.9 5
1930-10-25 Slovan Wien D 1-164.8 1636 1440 68.70% 17.96% 13.34%+2.51 -2.7 11
1930-10-25 @ First Vienna D 1-164.8 1440 1636 13.34% 17.96% 68.70%-2.51 +2.7 6
1930-11-02 Austria Wien W 3-048.2 1710 1601 61.21% 18.50% 20.30%+1.57 +12.8 14
1930-11-02 @ Admira Wien L 0-348.2 1601 1710 20.30% 18.50% 61.21%-1.57 -12.8 10
1930-11-02 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-252.0 1443 1453 47.27% 18.84% 33.89%+0.31 -9.1 6
1930-11-02 @ Slovan Wien W 2-152.0 1453 1443 33.89% 18.84% 47.27%-0.31 +9.1 6
1930-11-02 Floridsdorfer D 3-368.7 1521 1466 55.41% 18.71% 25.88%+1.00 -0.8 7
1930-11-02 @ Wacker Wien D 3-368.7 1466 1521 25.88% 18.71% 55.41%-1.00 +0.8 4
1930-11-02 First Vienna D 1-167.2 1526 1633 33.76% 18.77% 47.47%-0.73 +0.6 6
1930-11-02 @ Wiener AC D 1-167.2 1633 1526 47.47% 18.77% 33.76%+0.73 -0.6 12
1930-11-08 FC Nicholson W 5-146.5 1718 1506 69.84% 17.84% 12.32%+2.68 +8.8 14
1930-11-08 @ Rapid Wien L 1-546.5 1506 1718 12.32% 17.84% 69.84%-2.68 -8.8 5
1930-11-09 Wacker Wien L 5-665.2 1462 1520 40.56% 18.85% 40.60%-0.21 -7.2 6
1930-11-09 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 6-565.2 1520 1462 40.60% 18.85% 40.56%+0.21 +7.2 9
1930-11-16 FC Nicholson D 1-160.5 1467 1498 44.50% 18.85% 36.65%+0.09 -0.3 5
1930-11-16 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-160.5 1498 1467 36.65% 18.85% 44.50%-0.09 +0.3 6
1930-11-30 Admira Wien L 2-369.4 1727 1722 49.20% 18.82% 31.98%+0.46 -8.9 14
1930-11-30 @ Rapid Wien W 3-269.4 1722 1727 31.98% 18.82% 49.20%-0.46 +8.9 16
1931-03-07 Wiener AC W 2-153.2 1527 1526 48.77% 18.83% 32.40%+0.43 +6.6 11
1931-03-07 @ Wacker Wien L 1-253.2 1526 1527 32.40% 18.83% 48.77%-0.43 -6.6 6
1931-03-08 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-144.7 1588 1455 63.60% 18.36% 18.03%+1.84 +9.7 12
1931-03-08 @ Austria Wien L 1-444.7 1455 1588 18.03% 18.36% 63.60%-1.84 -9.7 6
1931-03-08 Slovan Wien W 2-146.4 1498 1434 56.52% 18.68% 24.81%+1.10 +5.3 8
1931-03-08 @ FC Nicholson L 1-246.4 1434 1498 24.81% 18.68% 56.52%-1.10 -5.3 6
1931-03-08 Admira Wien W 5-474.6 1632 1731 34.88% 18.79% 46.33%-0.64 +8.1 14
1931-03-08 @ First Vienna L 4-574.6 1731 1632 46.33% 18.79% 34.88%+0.64 -8.1 16
1931-03-08 Floridsdorfer W 8-041.1 1718 1467 72.38% 17.51% 10.10%+3.10 +16.8 16
1931-03-08 @ Rapid Wien L 0-841.1 1467 1718 10.10% 17.51% 72.38%-3.10 -16.8 5
1931-03-14 Floridsdorfer W 8-244.2 1640 1450 68.31% 18.00% 13.69%+2.45 +11.7 16
1931-03-14 @ First Vienna L 2-844.2 1450 1640 13.69% 18.00% 68.31%-2.45 -11.7 5
1931-03-14 Austria Wien L 0-448.9 1534 1598 39.73% 18.84% 41.43%-0.27 -29.7 11
1931-03-14 @ Wacker Wien W 4-048.9 1598 1534 41.43% 18.84% 39.73%+0.27 +29.7 14
1931-03-15 Rapid Wien D 3-378.5 1723 1735 47.08% 18.84% 34.08%+0.29 -0.4 17
1931-03-15 @ Admira Wien D 3-378.5 1735 1723 34.08% 18.84% 47.08%-0.29 +0.4 17
1931-03-15 FC Nicholson W 3-255.3 1520 1503 50.74% 18.80% 30.46%+0.59 +6.0 8
1931-03-15 @ Wiener AC L 2-355.3 1503 1520 30.46% 18.80% 50.74%-0.59 -6.0 8
1931-03-15 Slovan Wien W 9-343.0 1445 1428 50.76% 18.80% 30.43%+0.59 +21.4 8
1931-03-15 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 3-943.0 1428 1445 30.43% 18.80% 50.76%-0.59 -21.4 6
1931-03-21 Wacker Wien D 2-262.0 1407 1504 35.12% 18.80% 46.08%-0.62 +0.4 7
1931-03-21 @ Slovan Wien D 2-262.0 1504 1407 46.08% 18.80% 35.12%+0.62 -0.4 12
1931-03-21 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-041.3 1526 1466 55.94% 18.69% 25.37%+1.05 +15.6 10
1931-03-21 @ Wiener AC L 0-341.3 1466 1526 25.37% 18.69% 55.94%-1.05 -15.6 8
1931-03-22 Austria Wien W 2-161.0 1497 1628 30.77% 18.71% 50.51%-0.98 +9.6 10
1931-03-22 @ FC Nicholson L 1-261.0 1628 1497 50.51% 18.71% 30.77%+0.98 -9.6 14
1931-03-22 Admira Wien L 2-453.3 1438 1723 15.36% 17.88% 66.76%-2.63 -5.3 5
1931-03-22 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-253.3 1723 1438 66.76% 17.88% 15.36%+2.63 +5.3 19
1931-03-22 First Vienna L 0-262.8 1735 1652 58.58% 18.61% 22.82%+1.30 -22.1 17
1931-03-22 @ Rapid Wien W 2-062.8 1652 1735 22.82% 18.61% 58.58%-1.30 +22.1 18
1931-03-28 Austria Wien L 1-250.6 1433 1618 24.39% 18.50% 57.11%-1.56 -5.2 5
1931-03-28 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-150.6 1618 1433 57.11% 18.50% 24.39%+1.56 +5.2 16
1931-03-28 Admira Wien L 2-451.7 1407 1728 12.86% 17.58% 69.55%-3.01 -4.5 7
1931-03-28 @ Slovan Wien W 4-251.7 1728 1407 69.55% 17.58% 12.86%+3.01 +4.5 21
1931-03-29 Wiener AC W 3-257.3 1674 1541 63.55% 18.37% 18.08%+1.84 +3.8 20
1931-03-29 @ First Vienna L 2-357.3 1541 1674 18.08% 18.37% 63.55%-1.84 -3.8 10
1931-03-29 Rapid Wien D 3-375.9 1504 1713 21.89% 18.38% 59.74%-1.82 +1.1 13
1931-03-29 @ Wacker Wien D 3-375.9 1713 1504 59.74% 18.38% 21.89%+1.82 -1.1 18
1931-03-29 FC Nicholson L 0-149.4 1451 1507 40.86% 18.85% 40.29%-0.19 -8.5 8
1931-03-29 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 1-049.4 1507 1451 40.29% 18.85% 40.86%+0.19 +8.5 12
1931-04-18 First Vienna L 0-148.6 1442 1678 19.36% 18.22% 62.42%-2.11 -4.5 8
1931-04-18 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 1-048.6 1678 1442 62.42% 18.22% 19.36%+2.11 +4.5 22
1931-04-19 FC Nicholson D 2-272.8 1733 1515 70.22% 17.80% 11.98%+2.74 -2.1 22
1931-04-19 @ Admira Wien D 2-272.8 1515 1733 11.98% 17.80% 70.22%-2.74 +2.2 13
1931-04-19 Wacker Wien L 0-245.2 1428 1505 37.89% 18.83% 43.28%-0.41 -15.1 5
1931-04-19 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-045.2 1505 1428 43.28% 18.83% 37.89%+0.41 +15.1 15
1931-04-19 Slovan Wien W 6-141.0 1712 1403 75.52% 16.97% 7.52%+3.72 +6.6 20
1931-04-19 @ Rapid Wien L 1-641.0 1403 1712 7.52% 16.97% 75.52%-3.72 -6.7 7
1931-04-19 Austria Wien W 5-155.0 1537 1623 36.66% 18.82% 44.53%-0.50 +27.2 12
1931-04-19 @ Wiener AC L 1-555.0 1623 1537 44.53% 18.82% 36.66%+0.50 -27.2 16
1931-04-25 Slovan Wien W 6-138.7 1596 1396 69.00% 17.93% 13.07%+2.55 +11.4 18
1931-04-25 @ Austria Wien L 1-638.7 1396 1596 13.07% 17.93% 69.00%-2.55 -11.4 7
1931-04-25 First Vienna L 3-463.3 1518 1682 26.63% 18.59% 54.79%-1.35 -5.2 13
1931-04-25 @ FC Nicholson W 4-363.3 1682 1518 54.79% 18.59% 26.63%+1.35 +5.2 24
1931-04-25 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-251.0 1413 1438 45.26% 18.85% 35.89%+0.15 +6.8 7
1931-04-25 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-351.0 1438 1413 35.89% 18.85% 45.26%-0.15 -6.8 8
1931-04-26 Wacker Wien W 7-248.9 1730 1520 69.75% 17.85% 12.40%+2.66 +9.1 24
1931-04-26 @ Admira Wien L 2-748.9 1520 1730 12.40% 17.85% 69.75%-2.66 -9.1 15
1931-04-26 Rapid Wien L 3-465.3 1565 1719 27.90% 18.63% 53.47%-1.23 -5.4 12
1931-04-26 @ Wiener AC W 4-365.3 1719 1565 53.47% 18.63% 27.90%+1.23 +5.4 22
1931-05-09 Floridsdorfer L 2-360.6 1512 1420 59.60% 18.57% 21.84%+1.40 -10.6 13
1931-05-09 @ FC Nicholson W 3-260.6 1420 1512 21.84% 18.57% 59.60%-1.40 +10.6 9
1931-05-09 Wacker Wien D 1-168.4 1688 1511 67.25% 18.10% 14.65%+2.30 -2.6 25
1931-05-09 @ First Vienna D 1-168.4 1511 1688 14.65% 18.10% 67.25%-2.30 +2.6 16
1931-05-10 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-564.0 1740 1431 75.50% 16.97% 7.53%+3.71 -45.0 24
1931-05-10 @ Admira Wien W 5-164.0 1431 1740 7.53% 16.97% 75.50%-3.71 +44.9 10
1931-05-10 Austria Wien W 4-363.3 1724 1608 61.99% 18.46% 19.55%+1.66 +4.0 24
1931-05-10 @ Rapid Wien L 3-463.3 1608 1724 19.55% 18.46% 61.99%-1.66 -4.0 18
1931-05-10 Slovan Wien W 6-033.5 1559 1385 67.07% 18.11% 14.82%+2.28 +18.4 14
1931-05-10 @ Wiener AC L 0-633.5 1385 1559 14.82% 18.11% 67.07%-2.28 -18.4 7
1931-05-30 Wiener AC D 2-265.5 1430 1578 28.71% 18.66% 52.63%-1.16 +0.8 10
1931-05-30 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-265.5 1578 1430 52.63% 18.66% 28.71%+1.16 -0.8 15
1931-05-30 Wiener Sport-Club L 3-660.1 1514 1476 53.40% 18.76% 27.85%+0.82 -19.9 16
1931-05-30 @ Wacker Wien W 6-360.1 1476 1514 27.85% 18.76% 53.40%-0.82 +19.9 12
1931-05-31 Admira Wien D 3-377.2 1604 1695 35.96% 18.81% 45.23%-0.56 +0.2 19
1931-05-31 @ Austria Wien D 3-377.2 1695 1604 45.23% 18.81% 35.96%+0.56 -0.3 25
1931-05-31 Rapid Wien W 1-064.0 1502 1728 20.24% 18.28% 61.48%-2.00 +12.2 15
1931-05-31 @ FC Nicholson L 0-164.0 1728 1502 61.48% 18.28% 20.24%+2.00 -12.2 24
1931-05-31 First Vienna L 0-437.8 1366 1685 13.00% 17.60% 69.40%-2.99 -11.0 7
1931-05-31 @ Slovan Wien W 4-037.8 1685 1366 69.40% 17.60% 13.00%+2.99 +11.0 27
1931-06-06 Wiener AC W 5-255.0 1694 1577 62.10% 18.45% 19.45%+1.67 +9.0 27
1931-06-06 @ Admira Wien L 2-555.0 1577 1694 19.45% 18.45% 62.10%-1.67 -9.0 15
1931-06-07 First Vienna L 1-456.6 1604 1696 35.79% 18.81% 45.41%-0.57 -17.6 19
1931-06-07 @ Austria Wien W 4-156.6 1696 1604 45.41% 18.81% 35.79%+0.57 +17.6 29
1931-06-07 Rapid Wien L 4-662.0 1496 1716 20.83% 18.31% 60.85%-1.94 -6.4 12
1931-06-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 6-462.0 1716 1496 60.85% 18.31% 20.83%+1.94 +6.4 26
1931-06-10 FC Nicholson L 0-446.4 1494 1514 45.90% 18.85% 35.25%+0.20 -33.5 16
1931-06-10 @ Wacker Wien W 4-046.4 1514 1494 35.25% 18.85% 45.90%-0.20 +33.5 17
1931-06-13 Floridsdorfer L 1-344.4 1355 1431 38.08% 18.83% 43.09%-0.40 -13.1 7
1931-06-13 @ Slovan Wien W 3-144.4 1431 1355 43.09% 18.83% 38.08%+0.40 +13.1 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1931-05-10 7.53% Wiener Sport-Club 1431 5 @ Admira Wien 1740 1
2 1931-05-31 20.24% @ FC Nicholson 1502 1 Rapid Wien 1728 0
3 1931-05-09 21.84% Floridsdorfer 1420 3 @ FC Nicholson 1512 2
4 1931-03-22 22.82% First Vienna 1652 2 @ Rapid Wien 1735 0
5 1930-09-06 23.41% Wacker Wien 1519 3 @ Wiener AC 1596 2
6 1930-09-14 24.62% First Vienna 1619 3 @ Admira Wien 1685 1
7 1931-05-30 27.85% Wiener Sport-Club 1476 6 @ Wacker Wien 1514 3
8 1930-10-05 28.05% Wacker Wien 1522 5 @ FC Nicholson 1558 2
9 1931-03-22 30.77% @ FC Nicholson 1497 2 Austria Wien 1628 1
10 1930-09-07 31.00% @ Slovan Wien 1452 2 Austria Wien 1581 0
11 1930-10-05 31.86% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1469 4 Austria Wien 1591 3
12 1930-11-30 31.98% Admira Wien 1722 3 @ Rapid Wien 1727 2
13 1930-11-02 33.89% Wiener Sport-Club 1453 2 @ Slovan Wien 1443 1
14 1931-03-08 34.88% @ First Vienna 1632 5 Admira Wien 1731 4
15 1930-08-31 35.14% @ Austria Wien 1567 4 Rapid Wien 1664 2
16 1931-06-10 35.25% FC Nicholson 1514 4 @ Wacker Wien 1494 0
17 1930-09-14 36.01% @ FC Nicholson 1495 8 Wiener AC 1586 0
18 1931-04-19 36.66% @ Wiener AC 1537 5 Austria Wien 1623 1
19 1930-09-28 37.50% Rapid Wien 1674 3 @ First Vienna 1638 0
20 1930-10-19 40.23% Wiener AC 1521 4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1465 2
21 1931-03-29 40.29% FC Nicholson 1507 1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1451 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-09-14 63.63 @ FC Nicholson 8 1495 36.01% Wiener AC 0 1586 45.18% 18.81%
2 1931-05-10 44.95 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1431 7.53% @ Admira Wien 1 1740 75.50% 16.97%
3 1930-09-07 36.23 Admira Wien 9 1649 52.22% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1505 29.11% 18.67%
4 1931-06-10 33.52 FC Nicholson 4 1514 35.25% @ Wacker Wien 0 1494 45.90% 18.85%
5 1931-03-14 29.72 Austria Wien 4 1598 41.43% @ Wacker Wien 0 1534 39.73% 18.84%
6 1931-04-19 27.21 @ Wiener AC 5 1537 36.66% Austria Wien 1 1623 44.53% 18.82%
7 1930-09-28 24.59 Rapid Wien 3 1674 37.50% @ First Vienna 0 1638 43.65% 18.85%
8 1930-09-14 24.32 @ Austria Wien 7 1562 56.31% Floridsdorfer 1 1499 25.01% 18.68%
9 1931-03-22 22.07 First Vienna 2 1652 22.82% @ Rapid Wien 0 1735 58.58% 18.61%
10 1930-10-12 21.46 @ Austria Wien 4 1583 54.36% FC Nicholson 0 1537 26.90% 18.73%
11 1930-10-05 21.37 Wacker Wien 5 1522 28.05% @ FC Nicholson 2 1558 53.18% 18.76%
12 1931-03-15 21.37 @ Wiener Sport-Club 9 1445 50.76% Slovan Wien 3 1428 30.43% 18.80%
13 1931-05-30 19.86 Wiener Sport-Club 6 1476 27.85% @ Wacker Wien 3 1514 53.40% 18.76%
14 1930-10-12 19.54 Admira Wien 5 1681 51.41% @ Wacker Wien 1 1544 29.90% 18.69%
15 1930-09-07 19.13 @ Slovan Wien 2 1452 31.00% Austria Wien 0 1581 50.28% 18.72%
16 1930-09-14 18.53 First Vienna 3 1619 24.62% @ Admira Wien 1 1685 56.71% 18.67%
17 1931-05-10 18.40 @ Wiener AC 6 1559 67.07% Slovan Wien 0 1385 14.82% 18.11%
18 1931-06-07 17.60 First Vienna 4 1696 45.41% @ Austria Wien 1 1604 35.79% 18.81%
19 1931-03-08 16.79 @ Rapid Wien 8 1718 72.38% Floridsdorfer 0 1467 10.10% 17.51%
20 1931-03-21 15.61 @ Wiener AC 3 1526 55.94% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1466 25.37% 18.69%
21 1930-08-30 15.41 @ FC Nicholson 5 1493 44.92% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1520 36.23% 18.85%
22 1931-04-19 15.07 Wacker Wien 2 1505 43.28% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1428 37.89% 18.83%
23 1930-10-19 14.20 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1452 48.34% Slovan Wien 2 1454 32.82% 18.83%
24 1930-08-31 13.72 @ Austria Wien 4 1567 35.14% Rapid Wien 2 1664 46.06% 18.80%
25 1930-09-06 13.43 @ First Vienna 3 1606 60.08% FC Nicholson 0 1508 21.38% 18.55%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-03-15 78.5 @ Admira Wien 3 1723 47.08% Rapid Wien 3 1735 34.08% 18.84%
2 1931-05-31 77.2 @ Austria Wien 3 1604 35.96% Admira Wien 3 1695 45.23% 18.81%
3 1931-03-29 75.9 @ Wacker Wien 3 1504 21.89% Rapid Wien 3 1713 59.74% 18.38%
4 1931-03-08 74.6 @ First Vienna 5 1632 34.88% Admira Wien 4 1731 46.33% 18.79%
5 1931-04-19 72.8 @ Admira Wien 2 1733 70.22% FC Nicholson 2 1515 11.98% 17.80%
6 1930-11-30 69.4 Admira Wien 3 1722 31.98% @ Rapid Wien 2 1727 49.20% 18.82%
7 1930-11-02 68.7 @ Wacker Wien 3 1521 55.41% Floridsdorfer 3 1466 25.88% 18.71%
8 1931-05-09 68.4 @ First Vienna 1 1688 67.25% Wacker Wien 1 1511 14.65% 18.10%
9 1930-10-05 68.0 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1463 28.33% First Vienna 2 1613 53.02% 18.65%
10 1930-11-02 67.2 @ Wiener AC 1 1526 33.76% First Vienna 1 1633 47.47% 18.77%
11 1930-09-06 66.7 Wacker Wien 3 1519 23.41% @ Wiener AC 2 1596 57.96% 18.63%
12 1930-08-31 66.2 @ Wacker Wien 1 1518 36.42% First Vienna 1 1606 44.77% 18.81%
13 1930-10-05 66.1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1469 31.86% Austria Wien 3 1591 49.40% 18.74%
14 1931-05-30 65.5 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1430 28.71% Wiener AC 2 1578 52.63% 18.66%
15 1931-04-26 65.3 Rapid Wien 4 1719 53.47% @ Wiener AC 3 1565 27.90% 18.63%
16 1930-11-09 65.2 Wacker Wien 6 1520 40.60% @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1462 40.56% 18.85%
17 1930-09-14 64.8 First Vienna 3 1619 24.62% @ Admira Wien 1 1685 56.71% 18.67%
18 1930-10-25 64.8 @ First Vienna 1 1636 68.70% Slovan Wien 1 1440 13.34% 17.96%
19 1930-08-31 64.4 @ Austria Wien 4 1567 35.14% Rapid Wien 2 1664 46.06% 18.80%
20 1931-05-10 64.0 Wiener Sport-Club 5 1431 7.53% @ Admira Wien 1 1740 75.50% 16.97%
21 1931-05-31 64.0 @ FC Nicholson 1 1502 20.24% Rapid Wien 0 1728 61.48% 18.28%
22 1930-08-31 63.6 @ Slovan Wien 1 1451 28.84% Wiener AC 1 1597 52.50% 18.66%
23 1931-04-25 63.3 First Vienna 4 1682 54.79% @ FC Nicholson 3 1518 26.63% 18.59%
24 1931-05-10 63.3 @ Rapid Wien 4 1724 61.99% Austria Wien 3 1608 19.55% 18.46%
25 1930-09-27 63.0 @ Slovan Wien 1 1473 36.65% FC Nicholson 1 1559 44.53% 18.82%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-05-10 33.5 @ Wiener AC 6 1559 67.07% Slovan Wien 0 1385 14.82% 18.11%
2 1931-05-31 37.8 First Vienna 4 1685 69.40% @ Slovan Wien 0 1366 13.00% 17.60%
3 1931-04-25 38.7 @ Austria Wien 6 1596 69.00% Slovan Wien 1 1396 13.07% 17.93%
4 1930-09-14 40.7 @ Rapid Wien 4 1663 68.57% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1469 13.45% 17.98%
5 1931-04-19 41.0 @ Rapid Wien 6 1712 75.52% Slovan Wien 1 1403 7.52% 16.97%
6 1931-03-08 41.1 @ Rapid Wien 8 1718 72.38% Floridsdorfer 0 1467 10.10% 17.51%
7 1931-03-21 41.3 @ Wiener AC 3 1526 55.94% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1466 25.37% 18.69%
8 1930-10-04 42.7 @ Admira Wien 3 1673 68.99% Slovan Wien 0 1473 13.08% 17.93%
9 1931-03-15 43.0 @ Wiener Sport-Club 9 1445 50.76% Slovan Wien 3 1428 30.43% 18.80%
10 1930-10-12 43.3 @ Wiener AC 2 1510 54.43% Floridsdorfer 0 1463 26.84% 18.73%
11 1931-03-14 44.2 @ First Vienna 8 1640 68.31% Floridsdorfer 2 1450 13.69% 18.00%
12 1930-09-06 44.4 @ First Vienna 3 1606 60.08% FC Nicholson 0 1508 21.38% 18.55%
13 1931-06-13 44.4 Floridsdorfer 3 1431 43.09% @ Slovan Wien 1 1355 38.08% 18.83%
14 1930-09-14 44.5 @ Austria Wien 7 1562 56.31% Floridsdorfer 1 1499 25.01% 18.68%
15 1930-10-12 44.6 @ Austria Wien 4 1583 54.36% FC Nicholson 0 1537 26.90% 18.73%
16 1931-03-08 44.7 @ Austria Wien 4 1588 63.60% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1455 18.03% 18.36%
17 1931-04-19 45.2 Wacker Wien 2 1505 43.28% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1428 37.89% 18.83%
18 1931-03-08 46.4 @ FC Nicholson 2 1498 56.52% Slovan Wien 1 1434 24.81% 18.68%
19 1931-06-10 46.4 FC Nicholson 4 1514 35.25% @ Wacker Wien 0 1494 45.90% 18.85%
20 1930-11-08 46.5 @ Rapid Wien 5 1718 69.84% FC Nicholson 1 1506 12.32% 17.84%
21 1930-10-11 46.7 @ First Vienna 7 1612 63.64% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1478 17.99% 18.36%
22 1930-09-28 47.6 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1457 46.25% Floridsdorfer 1 1475 34.90% 18.85%
23 1930-10-19 48.1 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1452 48.34% Slovan Wien 2 1454 32.82% 18.83%
24 1930-11-02 48.2 @ Admira Wien 3 1710 61.21% Austria Wien 0 1601 20.30% 18.50%
25 1930-09-07 48.6 Admira Wien 9 1649 52.22% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1505 29.11% 18.67%