Home / Leagues / Austria / Austrian Football Championship / 1917-18
‹ ›

1917-18 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Floridsdorfer

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

1. Simmeringer SC

4.74 points above expected

14 points · 9.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Wiener AC

2.12 points below expected

18 points · 20.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floridsdorfer 18 9 6 3 24 47 16 +31 26.05 -2.05
2 Rapid Wien 18 9 6 3 24 46 23 +23 26.07 -2.07
3 SC Rudolfshugel 18 9 4 5 22 45 31 +14 20.86 +1.14
4 Wiener AF 18 10 2 6 22 52 41 +11 23.88 -1.88
5 Wiener AC 18 5 8 5 18 33 24 +9 20.12 -2.12
6 Wacker Wien 18 7 3 8 17 26 35 -9 17.70 -0.70
7 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 4 7 7 15 23 33 -10 13.89 +1.11
8 Wiener Sport-Club 18 6 3 9 15 35 50 -15 13.84 +1.16
9 1. Simmeringer SC 18 6 2 10 14 30 47 -17 9.26 +4.74
10 Hertha Wien 18 1 7 10 9 24 61 -37 8.32 +0.68

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 1. Simmeringer SC 14 9.26 +4.74
2 Wiener Sport-Club 15 13.84 +1.16
3 SC Rudolfshugel 22 20.86 +1.14
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 15 13.89 +1.11
5 Hertha Wien 9 8.32 +0.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener AC 18 20.12 -2.12
2 Rapid Wien 24 26.07 -2.07
3 Floridsdorfer 24 26.05 -2.05
4 Wiener AF 22 23.88 -1.88
5 Wacker Wien 17 17.70 -0.70

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 1. Simmeringer SC 2 Aug 19 – Aug 26 1 in 34
2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 Oct 28 – Nov 11 1 in 19
3 Rapid Wien 5 Mar 17 – May 12 1 in 14
4 Wiener AF 4 Apr 21 – Jun 23 1 in 12
5 Floridsdorfer 4 Sep 2 – Oct 14 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AF 3 Mar 3 – Mar 17 1 in 112
2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 27
3 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Apr 21 – Jun 23 1 in 17
4 Wiener AC 1 Aug 26 – Aug 26 1 in 17
5 Wacker Wien 3 Nov 25 – Mar 10 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 1. Simmeringer SC 6 Nov 25 – Apr 7 1 in 237
2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 7 Sep 30 – Mar 10 1 in 88
3 Hertha Wien 3 Oct 7 – Oct 21 1 in 25
4 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Mar 10 – Apr 7 1 in 10
5 Floridsdorfer 11 Aug 26 – Mar 17 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floridsdorfer 5 Mar 24 – Jun 9 1 in 137
2 Wiener AC 9 Nov 11 – May 12 1 in 125
3 Rapid Wien 4 Nov 11 – Mar 10 1 in 64
4 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Mar 24 – Jun 23 1 in 16
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 6 Aug 19 – Oct 14 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1299 24 +25 9 7.4 +1.6
Floridsdorfer 1269 24 -8 5 7.8 -2.8
Wiener AF 1191 22 -10 8 6.5 +1.5
SC Rudolfshugel 1127 22 +12 7 5.6 +1.4
Wiener AC 1104 18 +9 6 4.8 +1.2
Wacker Wien 1030 17 -18 5 6.1 -1.1
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 960 15 +6 5 4.0 +1.0
Wiener Sport-Club 941 15 -18 1 4.3 -3.3
1. Simmeringer SC 823 14 +3 2 2.1 -0.1
Hertha Wien 767 9 -2 2 1.8 +0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FLO HW RW SR WW WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
0-0-2
0.64
1-1-0
2.91
0-0-2
0.59
1-0-1
0.97
2-0-0
1.23
1-0-1
1.15
1-0-1
0.72
0-0-2
1.86
0-1-1
1.82
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
5.06
 —
1-1-0
5.18
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-2
3.69
1-1-0
4.11
0-2-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.12
1-1-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.60
Hertha Wien
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
0.54
 —
0-1-1
0.52
0-0-2
0.86
0-0-2
1.17
0-1-1
0.95
0-0-2
0.68
0-2-0
1.57
1-1-0
1.58
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
5.11
1-1-0
2.79
1-1-0
5.21
 —
0-0-2
3.79
1-1-0
4.29
0-2-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
4.66
1-1-0
4.66
SC Rudolfshugel
1-0-1
4.62
2-0-0
1.79
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
1.69
 —
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.20
0-2-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.99
Wacker Wien
0-0-2
4.30
0-1-1
1.40
2-0-0
4.38
0-1-1
1.24
1-0-1
2.26
 —
1-0-1
2.30
0-1-1
1.71
2-0-0
3.40
1-0-1
3.47
Wiener AC
1-0-1
4.41
0-2-0
1.61
1-1-0
4.64
0-2-0
1.60
1-1-0
2.55
1-0-1
3.14
 —
0-0-2
2.10
0-2-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.79
Wiener AF
1-0-1
4.94
0-0-2
2.33
2-0-0
4.99
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.36
 —
2-0-0
4.25
1-0-1
4.38
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
2-0-0
3.60
0-1-1
1.03
0-2-0
3.92
1-0-1
0.94
0-2-0
1.65
0-0-2
2.06
0-2-0
1.70
0-0-2
1.29
 —
1-0-1
2.75
Wiener Sport-Club
1-1-0
3.65
0-0-2
0.99
0-1-1
3.91
0-1-1
0.94
1-0-1
1.51
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
1.69
1-0-1
1.18
1-0-1
2.69
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +4.0
Allowed 0.66 -2.9
Differential 0.95 +2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%3.33%2.78%2.22%2.22%3.33%19.44%
13.33%12.22%3.89%2.78%1.67%6.11%30.00%
22.78%3.89%6.67%2.78%1.67%1.67%19.44%
32.22%2.78%2.78%2.22%1.67%—11.67%
42.22%1.67%1.67%1.67%—0.56%7.78%
5+3.33%6.11%1.67%—0.56%—11.67%
Total19.44%30.00%19.44%11.67%7.78%11.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.01 2.01 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.75
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%——11.11%22.22%
111.11%5.56%———16.67%33.33%
2—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
35.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.61 -0.94
SD 1.46 2.15 3.04
CV 0.87 0.82 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+16.67%11.11%————27.78%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.89 +1.72
SD 2.15 0.90 2.61
CV 0.82 1.01 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%————11.11%16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%44.44%
2——22.22%——11.11%33.33%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%33.33%—5.56%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.39 -2.06
SD 0.97 2.03 2.39
CV 0.73 0.60 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.28 +1.28
SD 2.12 1.13 2.37
CV 0.83 0.88 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.72 +0.78
SD 1.89 1.49 2.56
CV 0.75 0.86 —
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
25.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%—22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.94 -0.50
SD 1.15 1.83 2.26
CV 0.80 0.94 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.33 +0.50
SD 1.92 1.28 2.48
CV 1.05 0.96 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2——5.56%———5.56%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
5+—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.89 2.28 +0.61
SD 1.84 1.93 3.15
CV 0.64 0.85 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.83 -0.56
SD 1.27 1.92 2.38
CV 1.00 1.05 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—16.67%—33.33%
1—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———11.11%——11.11%
5+—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
Total—22.22%22.22%16.67%33.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.78 -0.83
SD 1.92 1.31 2.50
CV 0.99 0.47 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1299 24 26.07 -2.07 29.5% 16 21 24 26 28 31 35
Floridsdorfer 1269 24 26.05 -2.05 30.1% 15 21 24 26 28 31 34
Wiener AF 1191 22 23.88 -1.88 31.9% 15 19 22 24 26 29 32
SC Rudolfshugel 1127 22 20.86 +1.14 67.9% 10 16 19 21 23 26 33
Wiener AC 1104 18 20.12 -2.12 30.3% 9 15 18 20 22 26 30
Wacker Wien 1030 17 17.70 -0.70 48.5% 8 12 15 18 20 23 27
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 960 15 13.89 +1.11 69.9% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Wiener Sport-Club 941 15 13.84 +1.16 71.1% 5 9 12 14 16 19 25
1. Simmeringer SC 823 14 9.26 +4.74 95.9% 1 5 7 9 11 14 21
Hertha Wien 767 9 8.32 +0.68 68.2% 0 4 6 8 10 13 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Clear Edge
45.56%26.67%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
182 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.48 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
Floridsdorfer, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.47 * Some Luck: 2.47 to 3.71 * Lucky: 3.71 to 4.95 * Wild Swing: 4.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.76 * Close: 0.76 to 1.14 * Off: 1.14 to 1.52 * Way Off: 1.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.09 points
As Expected
03.098
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
00.952
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.90%
1. Simmeringer SC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
29.50%
Rapid Wien
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.17
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
79%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
34%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.49
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.99
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.48
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.58
Overconfident
0.4564571.001.54354
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.154
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Floridsdorfer43.00%28.80%17.60%6.80%2.70%0.90%0.20%———
Rapid Wien39.50%30.60%18.90%7.80%1.90%1.10%0.20%———
SC Rudolfshugel2.70%8.80%16.20%25.90%27.10%13.80%4.20%1.10%0.20%—
Wiener AF13.40%24.60%28.80%19.80%9.00%3.60%0.80%———
Wiener AC1.20%5.30%13.20%25.40%28.50%17.40%6.00%2.60%0.20%0.20%
Wacker Wien0.20%1.60%4.00%11.30%21.10%33.30%19.30%7.50%1.20%0.50%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein—0.20%0.70%1.60%4.70%15.50%31.20%31.30%11.20%3.60%
Wiener Sport-Club—0.10%0.50%1.40%5.00%12.70%31.80%31.50%13.30%3.70%
1. Simmeringer SC——0.10%——1.10%4.10%16.90%42.50%35.30%
Hertha Wien—————0.60%2.20%9.10%31.40%56.70%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
1. Simmeringer SC 100%
Floridsdorfer 100%
Hertha Wien 100%
Rapid Wien 100%
SC Rudolfshugel 100%
Wacker Wien 100%
Wiener AC 100%
Wiener AF 100%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 100%
Wiener Sport-Club 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1917-08-12 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-236.6 1211 794 81.83% 14.52% 3.65%+2.64 +0.3 2
1917-08-12 @ Wiener AF L 2-336.6 794 1211 3.65% 14.52% 81.83%-2.64 -0.3 0
1917-08-19 Hertha Wien W 5-136.9 794 778 50.19% 27.73% 22.09%+0.44 +6.8 2
1917-08-19 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-536.9 778 794 22.09% 27.73% 50.19%-0.44 -6.8 0
1917-08-19 Wacker Wien L 1-245.7 956 1054 35.28% 28.18% 36.54%-0.20 -3.1 0
1917-08-19 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-145.7 1054 956 36.54% 28.18% 35.28%+0.20 +3.1 2
1917-08-19 Floridsdorfer W 2-147.6 1128 1257 31.04% 27.88% 41.07%-0.37 +3.4 2
1917-08-19 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-247.6 1257 1128 41.07% 27.88% 31.04%+0.37 -3.4 0
1917-08-19 Wiener AC L 0-434.1 944 1104 27.31% 27.43% 45.25%-0.54 -9.6 0
1917-08-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-034.1 1104 944 45.25% 27.43% 27.31%+0.54 +9.6 2
1917-08-26 Rapid Wien D 1-150.2 1254 1286 44.27% 28.21% 27.52%+0.17 -0.3 1
1917-08-26 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-150.2 1286 1254 27.52% 28.21% 44.27%-0.17 +0.3 1
1917-08-26 SC Rudolfshugel W 1-041.5 1057 1131 38.65% 28.28% 33.07%-0.06 +3.1 4
1917-08-26 @ Wacker Wien L 0-141.5 1131 1057 33.07% 28.28% 38.65%+0.06 -3.1 2
1917-08-26 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-151.3 1114 801 75.68% 18.49% 5.83%+2.06 -6.0 2
1917-08-26 @ Wiener AC W 1-051.3 801 1114 5.83% 18.49% 75.68%-2.06 +6.0 4
1917-09-02 Floridsdorfer L 0-629.0 953 1254 14.84% 23.66% 61.49%-1.31 -8.1 0
1917-09-02 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 6-029.0 1254 953 61.49% 23.66% 14.84%+1.31 +8.1 3
1917-09-02 Wacker Wien W 3-134.3 1286 1060 69.59% 21.86% 8.55%+1.59 +1.5 3
1917-09-02 @ Rapid Wien L 1-334.3 1060 1286 8.55% 21.86% 69.59%-1.59 -1.5 4
1917-09-02 Wiener AF D 2-254.0 1128 1211 37.35% 28.25% 34.39%-0.11 -0.0 3
1917-09-02 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 2-254.0 1211 1128 34.39% 28.25% 37.35%+0.11 +0.0 3
1917-09-02 Hertha Wien W 6-024.3 1108 771 77.22% 17.54% 5.24%+2.20 +2.7 4
1917-09-02 @ Wiener AC L 0-624.3 771 1108 5.24% 17.54% 77.22%-2.20 -2.7 0
1917-09-02 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-346.4 934 807 61.49% 25.23% 13.27%+1.04 +1.3 2
1917-09-02 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 3-446.4 807 934 13.27% 25.23% 61.49%-1.04 -1.3 4
1917-09-08 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 3-027.1 1211 945 72.55% 20.30% 7.15%+1.81 +2.0 5
1917-09-08 @ Wiener AF L 0-327.1 945 1211 7.15% 20.30% 72.55%-1.81 -2.0 0
1917-09-08 Rapid Wien L 2-338.2 806 1287 6.75% 16.77% 76.48%-2.31 -0.6 4
1917-09-08 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-238.2 1287 806 76.48% 16.77% 6.75%+2.31 +0.6 5
1917-09-23 Wiener Sport-Club L 3-458.0 943 935 49.10% 27.85% 23.05%+0.38 -3.7 0
1917-09-23 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-358.0 935 943 23.05% 27.85% 49.10%-0.38 +3.7 4
1917-09-23 Hertha Wien W 5-021.6 1262 768 85.61% 11.85% 2.54%+3.06 +1.0 5
1917-09-23 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-521.6 768 1262 2.54% 11.85% 85.61%-3.06 -1.0 0
1917-09-23 Rapid Wien W 3-253.2 1128 1288 27.33% 27.44% 45.23%-0.54 +3.5 5
1917-09-23 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 2-353.2 1288 1128 45.23% 27.44% 27.33%+0.54 -3.5 5
1917-09-23 Wiener AC W 3-031.2 1213 1110 59.26% 25.92% 14.82%+0.91 +4.4 7
1917-09-23 @ Wiener AF L 0-331.2 1110 1213 14.82% 25.92% 59.26%-0.91 -4.4 4
1917-09-30 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-024.8 1263 939 76.38% 18.06% 5.56%+2.12 +2.0 7
1917-09-30 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-424.8 939 1263 5.56% 18.06% 76.38%-2.12 -2.0 4
1917-09-30 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-433.1 767 1131 11.26% 21.33% 67.40%-1.66 -2.7 0
1917-09-30 @ Hertha Wien W 4-133.1 1131 767 67.40% 21.33% 11.26%+1.66 +2.6 7
1917-09-30 Wiener AF D 1-149.9 1059 1218 27.46% 27.46% 45.08%-0.53 +0.3 5
1917-09-30 @ Wacker Wien D 1-149.9 1218 1059 45.08% 27.46% 27.46%+0.53 -0.3 8
1917-09-30 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-150.9 1106 939 64.92% 23.97% 11.11%+1.26 -1.1 5
1917-09-30 @ Wiener AC D 1-150.9 939 1106 11.11% 23.97% 64.92%-1.26 +1.1 1
1917-10-07 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-251.5 764 937 25.88% 27.20% 46.91%-0.61 +5.9 2
1917-10-07 @ Hertha Wien L 2-451.5 937 764 46.91% 27.20% 25.88%+0.61 -5.9 4
1917-10-14 Hertha Wien D 2-255.2 940 770 65.19% 23.86% 10.95%+1.28 -0.8 2
1917-10-14 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-255.2 770 940 10.95% 23.86% 65.19%-1.28 +0.8 3
1917-10-14 Wiener AC D 3-359.7 1284 1105 65.99% 23.53% 10.48%+1.33 -0.7 6
1917-10-14 @ Rapid Wien D 3-359.7 1105 1284 10.48% 23.53% 65.99%-1.33 +0.7 6
1917-10-14 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-128.9 1134 805 76.72% 17.85% 5.43%+2.15 +1.6 9
1917-10-14 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-528.9 805 1134 5.43% 17.85% 76.72%-2.15 -1.6 4
1917-10-14 Floridsdorfer L 1-346.6 1217 1264 42.26% 28.27% 29.46%+0.08 -6.1 8
1917-10-14 @ Wiener AF W 3-146.6 1264 1217 29.46% 28.27% 42.26%-0.08 +6.1 9
1917-10-21 Rapid Wien D 1-153.4 771 1284 5.88% 15.59% 78.54%-2.48 +1.4 4
1917-10-21 @ Hertha Wien D 1-153.4 1284 771 78.54% 15.59% 5.88%+2.48 -1.4 7
1917-10-21 Floridsdorfer D 1-150.3 1059 1271 21.89% 26.35% 51.77%-0.82 +0.5 6
1917-10-21 @ Wacker Wien D 1-150.3 1271 1059 51.77% 26.35% 21.89%+0.82 -0.5 10
1917-10-21 SC Rudolfshugel W 2-143.4 1105 1136 44.47% 28.20% 27.33%+0.18 +2.6 8
1917-10-21 @ Wiener AC L 1-243.4 1136 1105 27.33% 28.20% 44.47%-0.18 -2.6 9
1917-10-21 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-131.3 1211 931 73.50% 19.77% 6.74%+1.88 +1.6 10
1917-10-21 @ Wiener AF L 1-431.3 931 1211 6.74% 19.77% 73.50%-1.88 -1.6 4
1917-10-28 Wiener AF W 2-140.4 1282 1213 55.95% 26.75% 17.30%+0.73 +1.8 9
1917-10-28 @ Rapid Wien L 1-240.4 1213 1282 17.30% 26.75% 55.95%-0.73 -1.8 10
1917-10-28 Wacker Wien W 3-251.9 930 1060 31.01% 27.88% 41.11%-0.37 +3.3 6
1917-10-28 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-351.9 1060 930 41.11% 27.88% 31.01%+0.37 -3.3 6
1917-10-28 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-539.4 804 939 30.27% 27.81% 41.93%-0.40 -8.7 4
1917-10-28 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-139.4 939 804 41.93% 27.81% 30.27%+0.40 +8.7 4
1917-11-11 Rapid Wien W 1-049.3 948 1284 12.73% 22.40% 64.87%-1.51 +5.3 6
1917-11-11 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-149.3 1284 948 64.87% 22.40% 12.73%+1.51 -5.3 9
1917-11-11 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-025.4 1270 795 84.77% 12.46% 2.77%+2.96 +0.5 12
1917-11-11 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-225.4 795 1270 2.77% 12.46% 84.77%-2.96 -0.4 4
1917-11-11 Wiener AF L 1-529.9 773 1211 8.16% 18.45% 73.39%-2.07 -2.4 4
1917-11-11 @ Hertha Wien W 5-129.9 1211 773 73.39% 18.45% 8.16%+2.07 +2.4 12
1917-11-11 Wacker Wien L 1-251.1 1108 1056 54.08% 27.13% 18.79%+0.63 -4.4 8
1917-11-11 @ Wiener AC W 2-151.1 1056 1108 18.79% 27.13% 54.08%-0.63 +4.4 8
1917-11-11 SC Rudolfshugel W 6-144.1 933 1133 23.00% 26.62% 50.37%-0.76 +15.7 8
1917-11-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-644.1 1133 933 50.37% 26.62% 23.00%+0.76 -15.7 9
1917-11-18 Wiener AC D 0-048.1 1271 1104 64.94% 23.96% 11.10%+1.26 -1.2 13
1917-11-18 @ Floridsdorfer D 0-048.1 1104 1271 11.10% 23.96% 64.94%-1.26 +1.2 9
1917-11-18 Wiener Sport-Club D 1-152.8 1279 949 76.80% 17.80% 5.40%+2.16 -1.4 10
1917-11-18 @ Rapid Wien D 1-152.8 949 1279 5.40% 17.80% 76.80%-2.16 +1.4 9
1917-11-18 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-150.9 1117 953 64.70% 24.06% 11.24%+1.25 -1.1 10
1917-11-18 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 1-150.9 953 1117 11.24% 24.06% 64.70%-1.25 +1.1 7
1917-11-18 Hertha Wien W 5-129.7 1061 770 74.22% 19.35% 6.43%+1.94 +2.0 10
1917-11-18 @ Wacker Wien L 1-529.7 770 1061 6.43% 19.35% 74.22%-1.94 -1.9 4
1917-11-25 Wacker Wien W 1-047.9 794 1063 17.10% 24.74% 58.17%-1.13 +4.8 6
1917-11-25 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-147.9 1063 794 58.17% 24.74% 17.10%+1.13 -4.9 10
1918-03-03 Wiener AF W 2-154.0 799 1213 9.07% 19.40% 71.52%-1.94 +5.4 8
1918-03-03 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-254.0 1213 799 71.52% 19.40% 9.07%+1.94 -5.4 12
1918-03-03 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-254.3 768 954 24.43% 26.93% 48.63%-0.68 +0.3 5
1918-03-03 @ Hertha Wien D 2-254.3 954 768 48.63% 26.93% 24.43%+0.68 -0.3 8
1918-03-03 Wacker Wien W 3-032.5 1116 1058 54.81% 26.99% 18.20%+0.67 +5.3 12
1918-03-03 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-332.5 1058 1116 18.20% 26.99% 54.81%-0.67 -5.3 10
1918-03-03 Rapid Wien D 0-047.2 1105 1277 25.92% 27.21% 46.87%-0.61 +0.4 10
1918-03-03 @ Wiener AC D 0-047.2 1277 1105 46.87% 27.21% 25.92%+0.61 -0.4 11
1918-03-03 Floridsdorfer L 1-533.0 950 1269 13.69% 23.01% 63.30%-1.41 -4.2 9
1918-03-03 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-133.0 1269 950 63.30% 23.01% 13.69%+1.41 +4.2 15
1918-03-10 Wiener AC D 1-149.8 954 1105 28.38% 27.58% 44.04%-0.49 +0.3 9
1918-03-10 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-149.8 1105 954 44.04% 27.58% 28.38%+0.49 -0.3 11
1918-03-10 Wacker Wien W 4-132.7 1274 1052 69.25% 22.03% 8.73%+1.56 +2.1 17
1918-03-10 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-432.7 1052 1274 8.73% 22.03% 69.25%-1.56 -2.2 10
1918-03-10 1. Simmeringer SC D 1-149.6 769 805 43.71% 28.23% 28.06%+0.14 -0.3 6
1918-03-10 @ Hertha Wien D 1-149.6 805 769 28.06% 28.23% 43.71%-0.14 +0.3 9
1918-03-10 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-456.0 1277 1122 63.95% 24.35% 11.69%+1.20 -7.8 11
1918-03-10 @ Rapid Wien W 4-256.0 1122 1277 11.69% 24.35% 63.95%-1.20 +7.8 14
1918-03-10 Wiener AF W 5-461.9 946 1208 17.55% 24.92% 57.53%-1.10 +4.1 11
1918-03-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 4-561.9 1208 946 57.53% 24.92% 17.55%+1.10 -4.1 12
1918-03-17 SC Rudolfshugel W 3-044.9 805 1129 13.38% 22.82% 63.80%-1.44 +14.3 11
1918-03-17 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-344.9 1129 805 63.80% 22.82% 13.38%+1.44 -14.3 14
1918-03-17 Wiener AF W 6-134.5 1276 1204 56.18% 26.70% 17.12%+0.74 +6.7 19
1918-03-17 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-634.5 1204 1276 17.12% 26.70% 56.18%-0.74 -6.7 12
1918-03-17 Hertha Wien W 5-231.3 1269 768 85.93% 11.62% 2.45%+3.10 +0.4 13
1918-03-17 @ Rapid Wien L 2-531.3 768 1269 2.45% 11.62% 85.93%-3.10 -0.4 6
1918-03-17 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 1-035.4 1050 954 58.58% 26.11% 15.31%+0.87 +1.7 12
1918-03-17 @ Wacker Wien L 0-135.4 954 1050 15.31% 26.11% 58.58%-0.87 -1.7 9
1918-03-17 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-351.5 1105 950 63.94% 24.36% 11.70%+1.20 -8.7 11
1918-03-17 @ Wiener AC W 3-151.5 950 1105 11.70% 24.36% 63.94%-1.20 +8.7 13
1918-03-24 Wiener Sport-Club D 3-358.3 819 959 29.82% 27.76% 42.43%-0.42 +0.1 12
1918-03-24 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 3-358.3 959 819 42.43% 27.76% 29.82%+0.42 -0.1 14
1918-03-24 Wiener AC D 0-048.3 768 1096 13.16% 22.68% 64.17%-1.46 +1.1 7
1918-03-24 @ Hertha Wien D 0-048.3 1096 768 64.17% 22.68% 13.16%+1.46 -1.1 12
1918-03-24 Floridsdorfer W 2-037.4 1269 1282 46.65% 28.07% 25.28%+0.27 +4.8 15
1918-03-24 @ Rapid Wien L 0-237.4 1282 1269 25.28% 28.07% 46.65%-0.27 -4.8 19
1918-03-24 Wacker Wien W 7-234.3 1197 1052 63.09% 24.68% 12.23%+1.14 +4.1 14
1918-03-24 @ Wiener AF L 2-734.3 1052 1197 12.23% 24.68% 63.09%-1.14 -4.1 12
1918-04-07 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 0-049.8 1278 953 76.47% 18.01% 5.52%+2.13 -1.6 20
1918-04-07 @ Floridsdorfer D 0-049.8 953 1278 5.52% 18.01% 76.47%-2.13 +1.6 10
1918-04-07 Wiener AC D 2-254.1 1115 1095 50.58% 27.68% 21.75%+0.45 -0.4 15
1918-04-07 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 2-254.1 1095 1115 21.75% 27.68% 50.58%-0.45 +0.4 13
1918-04-07 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-445.1 1048 819 69.80% 21.75% 8.45%+1.60 -20.5 12
1918-04-07 @ Wacker Wien W 4-045.1 819 1048 8.45% 21.75% 69.80%-1.60 +20.5 14
1918-04-07 Rapid Wien L 0-738.4 1201 1274 38.78% 28.28% 32.94%-0.06 -21.2 14
1918-04-07 @ Wiener AF W 7-038.4 1274 1201 32.94% 28.28% 38.78%+0.06 +21.2 17
1918-04-07 Hertha Wien D 2-255.4 959 769 66.79% 23.18% 10.03%+1.39 -0.9 15
1918-04-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-255.4 769 959 10.03% 23.18% 66.79%-1.39 +0.9 8
1918-04-21 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-032.7 954 840 60.33% 25.61% 14.07%+0.97 +2.9 12
1918-04-21 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-232.7 840 954 14.07% 25.61% 60.33%-0.97 -2.9 14
1918-04-21 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-351.8 1276 1115 64.47% 24.15% 11.38%+1.23 -8.8 20
1918-04-21 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-151.8 1115 1276 11.38% 24.15% 64.47%-1.23 +8.8 17
1918-04-21 Wacker Wien L 1-239.6 770 1027 17.90% 25.06% 57.03%-1.07 -1.8 8
1918-04-21 @ Hertha Wien W 2-139.6 1027 770 57.03% 25.06% 17.90%+1.07 +1.8 14
1918-04-21 Wiener AF L 2-449.0 1096 1180 37.18% 28.25% 34.57%-0.12 -5.0 13
1918-04-21 @ Wiener AC W 4-249.0 1180 1096 34.57% 28.25% 37.18%+0.12 +5.0 16
1918-04-21 Rapid Wien L 0-133.6 958 1296 12.63% 22.33% 65.04%-1.52 -1.3 15
1918-04-21 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 1-033.6 1296 958 65.04% 22.33% 12.63%+1.52 +1.3 19
1918-05-05 SC Rudolfshugel D 0-047.0 957 1124 26.61% 27.33% 46.06%-0.57 +0.4 13
1918-05-05 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 0-047.0 1124 957 46.06% 27.33% 26.61%+0.57 -0.4 18
1918-05-12 Wiener AF L 1-339.0 958 1185 20.43% 25.93% 53.64%-0.91 -3.4 13
1918-05-12 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 3-139.0 1185 958 53.64% 25.93% 20.43%+0.91 +3.4 18
1918-05-12 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-125.8 1297 837 84.04% 12.98% 2.98%+2.87 +1.0 21
1918-05-12 @ Rapid Wien L 1-625.8 837 1297 2.98% 12.98% 84.04%-2.87 -1.0 14
1918-05-12 Hertha Wien W 7-229.7 1123 768 78.34% 16.83% 4.83%+2.30 +1.4 20
1918-05-12 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 2-729.7 768 1123 4.83% 16.83% 78.34%-2.30 -1.4 8
1918-05-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-033.9 1029 956 56.29% 26.68% 17.03%+0.74 +3.5 16
1918-05-12 @ Wacker Wien L 0-233.9 956 1029 17.03% 26.68% 56.29%-0.74 -3.5 15
1918-05-12 Floridsdorfer D 1-150.1 1091 1267 25.46% 27.13% 47.41%-0.63 +0.4 14
1918-05-12 @ Wiener AC D 1-150.1 1267 1091 47.41% 27.13% 25.46%+0.63 -0.4 21
1918-06-09 Wiener AC L 0-630.4 836 1091 18.12% 25.15% 56.74%-1.06 -9.8 14
1918-06-09 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-030.4 1091 836 56.74% 25.15% 18.12%+1.06 +9.8 16
1918-06-09 Floridsdorfer D 2-257.5 767 1267 6.21% 16.06% 77.73%-2.41 +1.1 9
1918-06-09 @ Hertha Wien D 2-257.5 1267 767 77.73% 16.06% 6.21%+2.41 -1.0 22
1918-06-09 Rapid Wien D 1-150.8 1033 1298 17.33% 24.83% 57.84%-1.12 +0.8 17
1918-06-09 @ Wacker Wien D 1-150.8 1298 1033 57.84% 24.83% 17.33%+1.12 -0.8 22
1918-06-09 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-348.4 1188 1125 55.37% 26.88% 17.75%+0.70 +1.7 20
1918-06-09 @ Wiener AF L 3-448.4 1125 1188 17.75% 26.88% 55.37%-0.70 -1.7 20
1918-06-09 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-243.6 953 954 48.07% 27.95% 23.98%+0.34 -7.9 15
1918-06-09 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-043.6 954 953 23.98% 27.95% 48.07%-0.34 +7.9 15
1918-06-23 Floridsdorfer L 0-525.2 826 1266 8.12% 18.41% 73.47%-2.08 -3.5 14
1918-06-23 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-025.2 1266 826 73.47% 18.41% 8.12%+2.08 +3.5 24
1918-06-23 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 6-127.9 1297 962 77.11% 17.61% 5.28%+2.19 +1.9 24
1918-06-23 @ Rapid Wien L 1-627.9 962 1297 5.28% 17.61% 77.11%-2.19 -1.9 15
1918-06-23 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-027.9 1123 945 65.84% 23.59% 10.57%+1.32 +4.1 22
1918-06-23 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-427.9 945 1123 10.57% 23.59% 65.84%-1.32 -4.1 15
1918-06-23 Wiener AC L 2-351.6 1033 1101 39.55% 28.29% 32.16%-0.03 -3.2 17
1918-06-23 @ Wacker Wien W 3-251.6 1101 1033 32.16% 28.29% 39.55%+0.03 +3.2 18
1918-06-23 Hertha Wien W 5-127.3 1190 768 82.14% 14.31% 3.55%+2.67 +1.0 22
1918-06-23 @ Wiener AF L 1-527.3 768 1190 3.55% 14.31% 82.14%-2.67 -1.0 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1917-08-26 5.83% 1. Simmeringer SC 801 1 @ Wiener AC 1114 0
2 1918-04-07 8.45% 1. Simmeringer SC 819 4 @ Wacker Wien 1048 0
3 1918-03-03 9.07% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 799 2 Wiener AF 1213 1
4 1918-04-21 11.38% SC Rudolfshugel 1115 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1276 1
5 1918-03-10 11.69% SC Rudolfshugel 1122 4 @ Rapid Wien 1277 2
6 1918-03-17 11.70% Wiener Sport-Club 950 3 @ Wiener AC 1105 1
7 1917-11-11 12.73% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 948 1 Rapid Wien 1284 0
8 1918-03-17 13.38% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 805 3 SC Rudolfshugel 1129 0
9 1917-11-25 17.10% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 794 1 Wacker Wien 1063 0
10 1918-03-10 17.55% @ Wiener Sport-Club 946 5 Wiener AF 1208 4
11 1917-11-11 18.79% Wacker Wien 1056 2 @ Wiener AC 1108 1
12 1917-11-11 23.00% @ Wiener Sport-Club 933 6 SC Rudolfshugel 1133 1
13 1917-09-23 23.05% Wiener Sport-Club 935 4 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 943 3
14 1918-06-09 23.98% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 954 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 953 0
15 1917-10-07 25.88% @ Hertha Wien 764 4 Wiener Sport-Club 937 2
16 1917-09-23 27.33% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1128 3 Rapid Wien 1288 2
17 1917-10-14 29.46% Floridsdorfer 1264 3 @ Wiener AF 1217 1
18 1917-10-28 31.01% @ Wiener Sport-Club 930 3 Wacker Wien 1060 2
19 1917-08-19 31.04% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1128 2 Floridsdorfer 1257 1
20 1918-06-23 32.16% Wiener AC 1101 3 @ Wacker Wien 1033 2
21 1918-04-07 32.94% Rapid Wien 1274 7 @ Wiener AF 1201 0
22 1918-04-21 34.57% Wiener AF 1180 4 @ Wiener AC 1096 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1918-04-07 21.24 Rapid Wien 7 1274 32.94% @ Wiener AF 0 1201 38.78% 28.28%
2 1918-04-07 20.46 1. Simmeringer SC 4 819 8.45% @ Wacker Wien 0 1048 69.80% 21.75%
3 1917-11-11 15.67 @ Wiener Sport-Club 6 933 23.00% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1133 50.37% 26.62%
4 1918-03-17 14.32 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 805 13.38% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1129 63.80% 22.82%
5 1918-06-09 9.81 Wiener AC 6 1091 56.74% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 836 18.12% 25.15%
6 1917-08-19 9.60 Wiener AC 4 1104 45.25% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 944 27.31% 27.43%
7 1918-04-21 8.78 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1115 11.38% @ Floridsdorfer 1 1276 64.47% 24.15%
8 1918-03-17 8.72 Wiener Sport-Club 3 950 11.70% @ Wiener AC 1 1105 63.94% 24.36%
9 1917-10-28 8.67 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 5 939 41.93% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 804 30.27% 27.81%
10 1917-09-02 8.08 Floridsdorfer 6 1254 61.49% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 953 14.84% 23.66%
11 1918-06-09 7.86 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 954 23.98% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 953 48.07% 27.95%
12 1918-03-10 7.80 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1122 11.69% @ Rapid Wien 2 1277 63.95% 24.35%
13 1917-08-19 6.83 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 5 794 50.19% Hertha Wien 1 778 22.09% 27.73%
14 1918-03-17 6.73 @ Floridsdorfer 6 1276 56.18% Wiener AF 1 1204 17.12% 26.70%
15 1917-10-14 6.12 Floridsdorfer 3 1264 29.46% @ Wiener AF 1 1217 42.26% 28.27%
16 1917-08-26 6.03 1. Simmeringer SC 1 801 5.83% @ Wiener AC 0 1114 75.68% 18.49%
17 1917-10-07 5.91 @ Hertha Wien 4 764 25.88% Wiener Sport-Club 2 937 46.91% 27.20%
18 1918-03-03 5.38 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 799 9.07% Wiener AF 1 1213 71.52% 19.40%
19 1918-03-03 5.33 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1116 54.81% Wacker Wien 0 1058 18.20% 26.99%
20 1917-11-11 5.30 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 948 12.73% Rapid Wien 0 1284 64.87% 22.40%
21 1918-04-21 4.96 Wiener AF 4 1180 34.57% @ Wiener AC 2 1096 37.18% 28.25%
22 1917-11-25 4.85 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 794 17.10% Wacker Wien 0 1063 58.17% 24.74%
23 1918-03-24 4.82 @ Rapid Wien 2 1269 46.65% Floridsdorfer 0 1282 25.28% 28.07%
24 1917-09-23 4.42 @ Wiener AF 3 1213 59.26% Wiener AC 0 1110 14.82% 25.92%
25 1917-11-11 4.35 Wacker Wien 2 1056 18.79% @ Wiener AC 1 1108 54.08% 27.13%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1918-03-10 61.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 946 17.55% Wiener AF 4 1208 57.53% 24.92%
2 1917-10-14 59.7 @ Rapid Wien 3 1284 65.99% Wiener AC 3 1105 10.48% 23.53%
3 1918-03-24 58.3 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 819 29.82% Wiener Sport-Club 3 959 42.43% 27.76%
4 1917-09-23 58.0 Wiener Sport-Club 4 935 23.05% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 943 49.10% 27.85%
5 1918-06-09 57.5 @ Hertha Wien 2 767 6.21% Floridsdorfer 2 1267 77.73% 16.06%
6 1918-03-10 56.0 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1122 11.69% @ Rapid Wien 2 1277 63.95% 24.35%
7 1918-04-07 55.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 959 66.79% Hertha Wien 2 769 10.03% 23.18%
8 1917-10-14 55.2 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 940 65.19% Hertha Wien 2 770 10.95% 23.86%
9 1918-03-03 54.3 @ Hertha Wien 2 768 24.43% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 954 48.63% 26.93%
10 1918-04-07 54.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1115 50.58% Wiener AC 2 1095 21.75% 27.68%
11 1917-09-02 54.0 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1128 37.35% Wiener AF 2 1211 34.39% 28.25%
12 1918-03-03 54.0 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 799 9.07% Wiener AF 1 1213 71.52% 19.40%
13 1917-10-21 53.4 @ Hertha Wien 1 771 5.88% Rapid Wien 1 1284 78.54% 15.59%
14 1917-09-23 53.2 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1128 27.33% Rapid Wien 2 1288 45.23% 27.44%
15 1917-11-18 52.8 @ Rapid Wien 1 1279 76.80% Wiener Sport-Club 1 949 5.40% 17.80%
16 1917-10-28 51.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 930 31.01% Wacker Wien 2 1060 41.11% 27.88%
17 1918-04-21 51.8 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1115 11.38% @ Floridsdorfer 1 1276 64.47% 24.15%
18 1918-06-23 51.6 Wiener AC 3 1101 32.16% @ Wacker Wien 2 1033 39.55% 28.29%
19 1917-10-07 51.5 @ Hertha Wien 4 764 25.88% Wiener Sport-Club 2 937 46.91% 27.20%
20 1918-03-17 51.5 Wiener Sport-Club 3 950 11.70% @ Wiener AC 1 1105 63.94% 24.36%
21 1917-08-26 51.3 1. Simmeringer SC 1 801 5.83% @ Wiener AC 0 1114 75.68% 18.49%
22 1917-11-11 51.1 Wacker Wien 2 1056 18.79% @ Wiener AC 1 1108 54.08% 27.13%
23 1917-09-30 50.9 @ Wiener AC 1 1106 64.92% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 939 11.11% 23.97%
24 1917-11-18 50.9 @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1117 64.70% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 953 11.24% 24.06%
25 1918-06-09 50.8 @ Wacker Wien 1 1033 17.33% Rapid Wien 1 1298 57.84% 24.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1917-09-23 21.6 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1262 85.61% Hertha Wien 0 768 2.54% 11.85%
2 1917-09-02 24.3 @ Wiener AC 6 1108 77.22% Hertha Wien 0 771 5.24% 17.54%
3 1917-09-30 24.8 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1263 76.38% Wiener Sport-Club 0 939 5.56% 18.06%
4 1918-06-23 25.2 Floridsdorfer 5 1266 73.47% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 826 8.12% 18.41%
5 1917-11-11 25.4 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1270 84.77% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 795 2.77% 12.46%
6 1918-05-12 25.8 @ Rapid Wien 6 1297 84.04% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 837 2.98% 12.98%
7 1917-09-08 27.1 @ Wiener AF 3 1211 72.55% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 945 7.15% 20.30%
8 1918-06-23 27.3 @ Wiener AF 5 1190 82.14% Hertha Wien 1 768 3.55% 14.31%
9 1918-06-23 27.9 @ Rapid Wien 6 1297 77.11% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 962 5.28% 17.61%
10 1918-06-23 27.9 @ SC Rudolfshugel 4 1123 65.84% Wiener Sport-Club 0 945 10.57% 23.59%
11 1917-10-14 28.9 @ SC Rudolfshugel 5 1134 76.72% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 805 5.43% 17.85%
12 1917-09-02 29.0 Floridsdorfer 6 1254 61.49% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 953 14.84% 23.66%
13 1917-11-18 29.7 @ Wacker Wien 5 1061 74.22% Hertha Wien 1 770 6.43% 19.35%
14 1918-05-12 29.7 @ SC Rudolfshugel 7 1123 78.34% Hertha Wien 2 768 4.83% 16.83%
15 1917-11-11 29.9 Wiener AF 5 1211 73.39% @ Hertha Wien 1 773 8.16% 18.45%
16 1918-06-09 30.4 Wiener AC 6 1091 56.74% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 836 18.12% 25.15%
17 1917-09-23 31.2 @ Wiener AF 3 1213 59.26% Wiener AC 0 1110 14.82% 25.92%
18 1917-10-21 31.3 @ Wiener AF 4 1211 73.50% Wiener Sport-Club 1 931 6.74% 19.77%
19 1918-03-17 31.3 @ Rapid Wien 5 1269 85.93% Hertha Wien 2 768 2.45% 11.62%
20 1918-03-03 32.5 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1116 54.81% Wacker Wien 0 1058 18.20% 26.99%
21 1918-03-10 32.7 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1274 69.25% Wacker Wien 1 1052 8.73% 22.03%
22 1918-04-21 32.7 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 954 60.33% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 840 14.07% 25.61%
23 1918-03-03 33.0 Floridsdorfer 5 1269 63.30% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 950 13.69% 23.01%
24 1917-09-30 33.1 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1131 67.40% @ Hertha Wien 1 767 11.26% 21.33%
25 1918-04-21 33.6 Rapid Wien 1 1296 65.04% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 958 12.63% 22.33%