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1918-19 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiener Sport-Club

5.37 points above expected

19 points · 13.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Floridsdorfer

8.43 points below expected

15 points · 23.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 15 1 2 31 67 15 +52 26.51 +4.49
2 SC Rudolfshugel 18 10 4 4 24 51 32 +19 21.52 +2.48
3 Wiener AC 18 8 7 3 23 42 26 +16 21.21 +1.79
4 Wiener AF 18 8 4 6 20 32 26 +6 22.33 -2.33
5 Wiener Sport-Club 18 8 3 7 19 25 38 -13 13.63 +5.37
6 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 5 6 7 16 29 38 -9 15.62 +0.38
7 Floridsdorfer 18 7 1 10 15 45 35 +10 23.43 -8.43
8 Hertha Wien 18 5 2 11 12 34 52 -18 10.29 +1.71
9 1. Simmeringer SC 18 4 4 10 12 29 63 -34 10.98 +1.02
10 Wacker Wien 18 2 4 12 8 20 49 -29 14.46 -6.46

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener Sport-Club 19 13.63 +5.37
2 Rapid Wien 31 26.51 +4.49
3 SC Rudolfshugel 24 21.52 +2.48
4 Wiener AC 23 21.21 +1.79
5 Hertha Wien 12 10.29 +1.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floridsdorfer 15 23.43 -8.43
2 Wacker Wien 8 14.46 -6.46
3 Wiener AF 20 22.33 -2.33
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 16 15.62 +0.38
5 1. Simmeringer SC 12 10.98 +1.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Mar 23 – Jun 1 1 in 4,684
2 Hertha Wien 3 May 25 – Jun 22 1 in 363
3 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Sep 29 – Nov 17 1 in 35
4 Rapid Wien 6 Aug 18 – Sep 29 1 in 19
5 Wiener AF 3 Sep 22 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 7 Sep 1 – Dec 8 1 in 165
2 Floridsdorfer 3 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 48
3 Hertha Wien 7 Nov 10 – May 11 1 in 41
4 Wiener AC 2 May 25 – Jun 1 1 in 17
5 Wiener AF 2 Mar 25 – Apr 13 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener Sport-Club 7 Mar 9 – Jun 1 1 in 163
2 Hertha Wien 4 May 25 – Jun 29 1 in 44
3 Wiener AC 10 Oct 13 – May 18 1 in 31
4 Wacker Wien 4 Mar 2 – Mar 25 1 in 27
5 Wiener AF 6 Aug 18 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 10 Aug 18 – Mar 2 1 in 62
2 Wiener AF 4 Mar 25 – May 25 1 in 29
3 Wiener AC 3 Oct 27 – Nov 17 1 in 10
4 Floridsdorfer 3 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 8
5 Hertha Wien 9 Oct 13 – May 11 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1227 31 +39 10 7.9 +2.1
SC Rudolfshugel 1047 24 +1 7 6.2 +0.8
Wiener AC 1042 23 -10 5 5.6 -0.6
Wiener AF 1005 20 -51 3 5.9 -2.9
Wiener Sport-Club 877 19 +20 8 4.8 +3.2
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 902 16 -17 3 4.0 -1.0
Floridsdorfer 1056 15 -14 4 6.5 -2.5
Hertha Wien 800 12 +49 7 2.7 +4.3
1. Simmeringer SC 800 12 +22 4 3.3 +0.7
Wacker Wien 842 8 -48 1 3.9 -2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FLO HW RW SR WW WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
0-0-2
1.07
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
0.76
0-0-2
1.25
1-1-0
1.94
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
1.10
0-2-0
2.07
1-0-1
2.29
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
4.54
 —
1-0-1
4.56
0-0-2
2.36
0-0-2
3.06
2-0-0
4.12
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-2
3.13
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-2
4.47
Hertha Wien
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
1.05
 —
0-0-2
0.79
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
2.01
1-1-0
1.14
0-0-2
1.03
1-0-1
1.71
1-0-1
1.98
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
4.89
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
4.86
 —
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.52
1-1-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
4.54
1-0-1
4.69
SC Rudolfshugel
2-0-0
4.35
2-0-0
2.51
2-0-0
4.42
0-0-2
1.90
 —
1-1-0
4.16
0-2-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.62
1-0-1
3.91
2-0-0
3.81
Wacker Wien
0-1-1
3.65
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
3.58
0-0-2
1.10
0-1-1
1.44
 —
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.86
Wiener AC
2-0-0
4.20
1-1-0
2.27
0-1-1
4.47
0-1-1
1.83
0-2-0
2.84
1-1-0
3.92
 —
1-0-1
2.61
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
4.15
Wiener AF
1-0-1
4.51
2-0-0
2.45
2-0-0
4.59
0-0-2
1.78
1-1-0
2.96
1-0-1
4.25
1-0-1
2.97
 —
0-2-0
3.84
0-1-1
4.19
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
0-2-0
3.51
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
3.88
1-0-1
1.08
1-0-1
1.68
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
1.95
0-2-0
1.74
 —
1-1-0
3.17
Wiener Sport-Club
1-0-1
3.28
2-0-0
1.14
1-0-1
3.60
1-0-1
0.94
0-0-2
1.78
2-0-0
2.72
0-1-1
1.44
1-1-0
1.41
0-1-1
2.41
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +4.0
Allowed 0.75 -4.2
Differential 0.84 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%3.89%3.33%3.89%2.78%1.67%20.00%
13.89%5.56%4.44%3.33%2.78%3.89%23.89%
23.33%4.44%8.89%3.89%1.11%3.89%25.56%
33.89%3.33%3.89%1.11%0.56%0.56%13.33%
42.78%2.78%1.11%0.56%——7.22%
5+1.67%3.89%3.89%0.56%——10.00%
Total20.00%23.89%25.56%13.33%7.22%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 2.08 +0.00
SD 1.90 1.90 2.93
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%11.11%33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%22.22%11.11%11.11%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 3.50 -1.89
SD 1.24 2.57 3.05
CV 0.77 0.73 —
Max 5 9 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
15.56%—16.67%———22.22%
2——5.56%11.11%—5.56%22.22%
3———————
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.94 +0.56
SD 2.46 1.30 2.89
CV 0.98 0.67 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
1——16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—22.22%38.89%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.89 -1.00
SD 1.32 2.03 2.59
CV 0.70 0.70 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
322.22%11.11%————33.33%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
Total44.44%27.78%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.72 0.83 +2.89
SD 2.54 0.86 2.65
CV 0.68 1.03 —
Max 9 2 +8
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——11.11%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
Total33.33%11.11%22.22%27.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.78 +1.06
SD 2.33 1.80 3.21
CV 0.82 1.01 —
Max 8 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
1—5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.72 -1.61
SD 1.08 2.05 2.38
CV 0.97 0.75 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.44 +0.89
SD 1.41 1.20 1.97
CV 0.61 0.83 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
1—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.44 +0.33
SD 2.10 0.98 2.28
CV 1.18 0.68 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—5.56%16.67%——11.11%33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%—5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.11 -0.50
SD 1.46 2.14 2.92
CV 0.91 1.01 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%11.11%5.56%44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.11 -0.72
SD 1.04 2.08 2.44
CV 0.75 0.99 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1227 31 26.51 +4.49 94.6% 16 21 24 27 29 32 35
Floridsdorfer 1056 15 23.43 -8.43 1.1% 14 18 21 23 26 29 35
SC Rudolfshugel 1047 24 21.52 +2.48 80.8% 12 16 19 22 24 27 32
Wiener AC 1042 23 21.21 +1.79 74.2% 9 15 19 21 24 27 31
Wiener AF 1005 20 22.33 -2.33 29.0% 12 17 20 22 25 28 32
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 902 16 15.62 +0.38 60.4% 3 10 13 16 18 21 26
Wiener Sport-Club 877 19 13.63 +5.37 95.0% 3 8 11 14 16 19 26
Wacker Wien 842 8 14.46 -6.46 3.2% 5 9 12 14 17 20 26
Hertha Wien 800 12 10.29 +1.71 75.3% 1 5 8 10 12 16 20
1. Simmeringer SC 800 12 10.98 +1.02 68.2% 1 6 9 11 13 16 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
41.11%20.00%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
123 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
60%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.160.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.37 * Wild Swing: 5.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.42 * Off: 1.42 to 1.89 * Way Off: 1.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.25 points
Lucky
03.368
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Off
01.182.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Wiener Sport-Club
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.10%
Floridsdorfer
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.61
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
75%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
39%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.63
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.48
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.66
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.141
Well Within Noise
00.1690.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien60.50%21.40%10.50%4.20%3.20%0.20%————
SC Rudolfshugel7.30%18.40%20.00%21.10%19.80%8.80%3.50%0.90%0.20%—
Wiener AC6.90%13.40%20.30%22.70%22.70%9.80%2.20%1.30%0.60%0.10%
Wiener AF9.10%21.30%20.30%22.00%18.10%6.40%2.00%0.80%——
Wiener Sport-Club—0.40%0.40%2.20%5.60%15.20%25.10%23.40%17.10%10.60%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein—0.60%2.40%5.60%11.00%27.90%25.30%15.50%8.20%3.50%
Floridsdorfer16.20%23.90%25.30%18.20%10.40%4.60%1.30%0.10%——
Hertha Wien———0.30%0.70%4.30%8.10%15.90%31.00%39.70%
1. Simmeringer SC——0.20%0.30%0.90%5.20%10.50%18.30%27.30%37.30%
Wacker Wien—0.60%0.60%3.40%7.60%17.60%22.00%23.80%15.60%8.80%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
1. Simmeringer SC 100%
Floridsdorfer 100%
Hertha Wien 100%
Rapid Wien 100%
SC Rudolfshugel 100%
Wacker Wien 100%
Wiener AC 100%
Wiener AF 100%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 100%
Wiener Sport-Club 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1918-08-18 Wiener AF D 1-152.3 901 1042 23.78% 20.77% 55.45%-1.08 +1.3 1
1918-08-18 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-152.3 1042 901 55.45% 20.77% 23.78%+1.08 -1.3 1
1918-08-18 Wiener AC D 2-256.2 1108 998 55.83% 20.82% 23.35%+0.95 -1.0 1
1918-08-18 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-256.2 998 1108 23.35% 20.82% 55.83%-0.95 +1.0 1
1918-08-18 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-145.4 782 889 27.66% 20.97% 51.37%-0.80 +21.8 2
1918-08-18 @ Hertha Wien L 1-445.4 889 782 51.37% 20.97% 27.66%+0.80 -21.8 0
1918-08-18 Rapid Wien L 0-334.1 1005 1115 27.28% 20.96% 51.76%-0.83 -15.3 0
1918-08-18 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 3-034.1 1115 1005 51.76% 20.96% 27.28%+0.83 +15.3 2
1918-08-18 1. Simmeringer SC L 2-550.9 944 814 58.10% 20.68% 21.22%+1.12 -21.2 0
1918-08-18 @ Wacker Wien W 5-250.9 814 944 21.22% 20.68% 58.10%-1.12 +21.2 2
1918-08-25 Rapid Wien L 1-235.7 804 1130 9.83% 18.78% 71.39%-2.58 -2.1 2
1918-08-25 @ Hertha Wien W 2-135.7 1130 804 71.39% 18.78% 9.83%+2.58 +2.1 4
1918-08-25 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-256.1 923 902 44.81% 21.18% 34.01%+0.23 -0.3 1
1918-08-25 @ Wacker Wien D 2-256.1 902 923 34.01% 21.18% 44.81%-0.23 +0.3 2
1918-08-25 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-132.6 999 835 61.44% 20.41% 18.16%+1.39 +14.3 3
1918-08-25 @ Wiener AC L 1-632.6 835 999 18.16% 20.41% 61.44%-1.39 -14.3 2
1918-08-25 Floridsdorfer W 5-247.5 1041 1107 32.72% 21.13% 46.15%-0.47 +17.2 3
1918-08-25 @ Wiener AF L 2-547.5 1107 1041 46.15% 21.13% 32.72%+0.47 -17.2 1
1918-08-25 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-834.0 867 990 25.74% 20.88% 53.38%-0.94 -26.6 0
1918-08-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 8-134.0 990 867 53.38% 20.88% 25.74%+0.94 +26.6 2
1918-09-01 Wiener AC L 0-236.0 903 1013 27.14% 20.95% 51.91%-0.84 -10.5 2
1918-09-01 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-036.0 1013 903 51.91% 20.95% 27.14%+0.84 +10.5 5
1918-09-01 Wacker Wien W 4-135.2 1089 923 61.66% 20.38% 17.95%+1.41 +9.0 3
1918-09-01 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-435.2 923 1089 17.95% 20.38% 61.66%-1.41 -9.0 1
1918-09-01 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-538.4 802 1016 16.93% 20.15% 62.92%-1.68 -7.4 2
1918-09-01 @ Hertha Wien W 5-238.4 1016 802 62.92% 20.15% 16.93%+1.68 +7.4 4
1918-09-01 Rapid Wien L 1-334.7 840 1132 11.64% 19.24% 69.12%-2.31 -4.2 0
1918-09-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-134.7 1132 840 69.12% 19.24% 11.64%+2.31 +4.2 6
1918-09-08 Floridsdorfer L 1-433.3 821 1098 12.48% 19.43% 68.09%-2.19 -6.4 2
1918-09-08 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-133.3 1098 821 68.09% 19.43% 12.48%+2.19 +6.4 5
1918-09-15 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-256.1 814 892 31.19% 21.09% 47.72%-0.57 +0.5 3
1918-09-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 2-256.1 892 814 47.72% 21.09% 31.19%+0.57 -0.5 3
1918-09-15 Hertha Wien W 7-335.1 1105 795 72.43% 18.67% 8.90%+2.58 +4.6 7
1918-09-15 @ Floridsdorfer L 3-735.1 795 1105 8.90% 18.67% 72.43%-2.58 -4.6 2
1918-09-15 Wiener AC D 3-360.1 1024 1024 41.89% 21.21% 36.90%+0.06 -0.1 5
1918-09-15 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 3-360.1 1024 1024 36.90% 21.21% 41.89%-0.06 +0.1 6
1918-09-15 Rapid Wien L 0-330.5 914 1136 16.30% 20.07% 63.64%-1.74 -9.7 1
1918-09-15 @ Wacker Wien W 3-030.5 1136 914 63.64% 20.07% 16.30%+1.74 +9.7 8
1918-09-15 Wiener Sport-Club D 0-049.8 1058 836 66.41% 19.82% 13.77%+1.86 -2.6 4
1918-09-15 @ Wiener AF D 0-049.8 836 1058 13.77% 19.82% 66.41%-1.86 +2.6 1
1918-09-22 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-027.5 1146 815 73.64% 18.35% 8.00%+2.75 +4.9 10
1918-09-22 @ Rapid Wien L 0-327.5 815 1146 8.00% 18.35% 73.64%-2.75 -4.9 3
1918-09-22 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-030.7 1024 892 58.27% 20.67% 21.07%+1.14 +16.0 7
1918-09-22 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-430.7 892 1024 21.07% 20.67% 58.27%-1.14 -16.0 3
1918-09-22 Hertha Wien L 2-354.4 904 790 56.34% 20.79% 22.87%+0.99 -9.2 1
1918-09-22 @ Wacker Wien W 3-254.4 790 904 22.87% 20.79% 56.34%-0.99 +9.2 4
1918-09-22 Wiener AF L 2-348.9 1024 1055 37.47% 21.20% 41.34%-0.19 -6.5 6
1918-09-22 @ Wiener AC W 3-248.9 1055 1024 41.34% 21.20% 37.47%+0.19 +6.5 6
1918-09-22 Floridsdorfer W 2-153.3 839 1109 12.92% 19.52% 67.56%-2.13 +11.5 3
1918-09-22 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-253.3 1109 839 67.56% 19.52% 12.92%+2.13 -11.5 7
1918-09-29 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-734.1 810 1040 15.73% 19.99% 64.28%-1.80 -10.5 3
1918-09-29 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-234.1 1040 810 64.28% 19.99% 15.73%+1.80 +10.5 9
1918-09-29 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-140.1 876 850 45.39% 21.17% 33.44%+0.27 +15.3 5
1918-09-29 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-440.1 850 876 33.44% 21.17% 45.39%-0.27 -15.3 3
1918-09-29 Rapid Wien L 0-140.5 1098 1151 34.41% 21.16% 44.43%-0.37 -6.8 7
1918-09-29 @ Floridsdorfer W 1-040.5 1151 1098 44.43% 21.16% 34.41%+0.37 +6.8 12
1918-10-13 Wiener AF L 1-433.6 799 1062 13.45% 19.62% 66.94%-2.07 -6.9 4
1918-10-13 @ Hertha Wien W 4-133.6 1062 799 66.94% 19.62% 13.45%+2.07 +6.8 8
1918-10-13 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-253.9 1158 891 69.71% 19.26% 11.02%+2.23 -11.9 12
1918-10-13 @ Rapid Wien W 2-153.9 891 1158 11.02% 19.26% 69.71%-2.23 +11.9 7
1918-10-13 Wacker Wien W 5-135.0 1017 895 57.24% 20.74% 22.02%+1.06 +13.9 8
1918-10-13 @ Wiener AC L 1-535.0 895 1017 22.02% 20.74% 57.24%-1.06 -13.9 1
1918-10-13 1. Simmeringer SC L 2-351.6 835 799 46.77% 21.15% 32.08%+0.35 -7.8 3
1918-10-13 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-251.6 799 835 32.08% 21.15% 46.77%-0.35 +7.8 5
1918-10-27 Wiener AC D 2-256.4 792 1031 15.06% 19.89% 65.05%-1.88 +1.6 5
1918-10-27 @ Hertha Wien D 2-256.4 1031 792 65.05% 19.89% 15.06%+1.88 -1.6 9
1918-10-27 Floridsdorfer W 1-042.9 1050 1091 36.13% 21.19% 42.69%-0.27 +8.0 11
1918-10-27 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-142.9 1091 1050 42.69% 21.19% 36.13%+0.27 -8.0 7
1918-11-10 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-245.5 794 807 40.03% 21.21% 38.76%-0.04 -7.2 5
1918-11-10 @ Hertha Wien W 2-145.5 807 794 38.76% 21.21% 40.03%+0.04 +7.2 7
1918-11-10 Wiener AC D 1-152.4 827 1030 17.91% 20.27% 61.82%-1.58 +1.9 4
1918-11-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-152.4 1030 827 61.82% 20.27% 17.91%+1.58 -1.9 10
1918-11-17 Hertha Wien W 4-031.2 903 787 56.53% 20.78% 22.69%+1.00 +17.1 9
1918-11-17 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-431.2 787 903 22.69% 20.78% 56.53%-1.00 -17.1 5
1918-11-17 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-242.6 881 829 48.92% 21.10% 29.97%+0.49 -17.0 1
1918-11-17 @ Wacker Wien W 2-042.6 829 881 29.97% 21.10% 48.92%-0.49 +17.0 6
1918-11-17 Rapid Wien D 2-256.2 1028 1146 26.31% 20.91% 52.78%-0.90 +0.8 11
1918-11-17 @ Wiener AC D 2-256.2 1146 1028 52.78% 20.91% 26.31%+0.90 -0.8 13
1918-11-17 SC Rudolfshugel W 3-248.3 1068 1058 43.32% 21.20% 35.48%+0.15 +6.2 10
1918-11-17 @ Wiener AF L 2-348.3 1058 1068 35.48% 21.20% 43.32%-0.15 -6.2 11
1918-11-24 Wiener AF W 3-140.1 1145 1075 51.24% 21.03% 27.73%+0.63 +9.3 15
1918-11-24 @ Rapid Wien L 1-340.1 1075 1145 27.73% 21.03% 51.24%-0.63 -9.3 10
1918-11-24 SC Rudolfshugel L 3-446.7 864 1052 19.18% 20.40% 60.42%-1.46 -3.6 1
1918-11-24 @ Wacker Wien W 4-346.7 1052 864 60.42% 20.40% 19.18%+1.46 +3.6 13
1918-12-08 Wacker Wien W 3-135.9 1065 861 65.06% 20.00% 14.94%+1.73 +5.4 12
1918-12-08 @ Wiener AF L 1-335.9 861 1065 14.94% 20.00% 65.06%-1.73 -5.4 1
1918-12-15 Wiener AF L 1-730.4 814 1071 13.84% 19.69% 66.47%-2.02 -13.2 7
1918-12-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-130.4 1071 814 66.47% 19.69% 13.84%+2.02 +13.2 14
1919-03-02 Floridsdorfer L 0-530.1 920 1083 21.51% 20.61% 57.88%-1.26 -20.1 9
1919-03-02 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-030.1 1083 920 57.88% 20.61% 21.51%+1.26 +20.1 9
1919-03-02 Wacker Wien D 2-256.4 1056 855 64.69% 20.05% 15.26%+1.69 -1.6 14
1919-03-02 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 2-256.4 855 1056 15.26% 20.05% 64.69%-1.69 +1.6 2
1919-03-02 Wiener Sport-Club W 4-029.2 1029 846 63.14% 20.23% 16.63%+1.54 +13.0 13
1919-03-02 @ Wiener AC L 0-429.2 846 1029 16.63% 20.23% 63.14%-1.54 -13.0 6
1919-03-09 Wiener AC L 1-335.9 801 1042 14.95% 19.87% 65.17%-1.89 -5.4 7
1919-03-09 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-135.9 1042 801 65.17% 19.87% 14.95%+1.89 +5.3 15
1919-03-09 Wacker Wien L 1-340.8 770 857 30.02% 21.06% 48.93%-0.64 -9.9 5
1919-03-09 @ Hertha Wien W 3-140.8 857 770 48.93% 21.06% 30.02%+0.64 +9.9 4
1919-03-09 Floridsdorfer W 4-033.6 1154 1103 48.83% 21.10% 30.07%+0.48 +21.7 17
1919-03-09 @ Rapid Wien L 0-433.6 1103 1154 30.07% 21.10% 48.83%-0.48 -21.7 9
1919-03-09 Wiener AF D 0-049.4 1054 1084 37.64% 21.20% 41.16%-0.18 +0.2 15
1919-03-09 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 0-049.4 1084 1054 41.16% 21.20% 37.64%+0.18 -0.2 15
1919-03-09 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-256.1 833 900 32.64% 21.13% 46.23%-0.48 +0.4 7
1919-03-09 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-256.1 900 833 46.23% 21.13% 32.64%+0.48 -0.4 10
1919-03-23 1. Simmeringer SC D 1-152.3 899 796 55.15% 20.86% 23.99%+0.90 -1.3 11
1919-03-23 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-152.3 796 899 23.99% 20.86% 55.15%-0.90 +1.3 8
1919-03-23 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-357.6 1081 834 68.37% 19.51% 12.12%+2.07 -11.1 9
1919-03-23 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-257.6 834 1081 12.12% 19.51% 68.37%-2.07 +11.1 9
1919-03-23 SC Rudolfshugel W 7-133.2 1176 1054 57.18% 20.74% 22.08%+1.05 +20.2 19
1919-03-23 @ Rapid Wien L 1-733.2 1054 1176 22.08% 20.74% 57.18%-1.05 -20.2 15
1919-03-23 Wiener AC D 1-152.4 867 1047 19.87% 20.47% 59.66%-1.40 +1.7 5
1919-03-23 @ Wacker Wien D 1-152.4 1047 867 59.66% 20.47% 19.87%+1.40 -1.7 16
1919-03-23 Hertha Wien W 2-135.2 1084 760 73.23% 18.46% 8.31%+2.69 +1.8 17
1919-03-23 @ Wiener AF L 1-235.2 760 1084 8.31% 18.46% 73.23%-2.69 -1.8 5
1919-03-25 Wiener AF W 2-046.5 868 1086 16.72% 20.12% 63.16%-1.70 +21.6 7
1919-03-25 @ Wacker Wien L 0-246.5 1086 868 63.16% 20.12% 16.72%+1.70 -21.6 17
1919-03-25 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-255.0 1196 845 74.73% 18.04% 7.23%+2.92 -12.7 19
1919-03-25 @ Rapid Wien W 2-155.0 845 1196 7.23% 18.04% 74.73%-2.92 +12.7 11
1919-03-30 Rapid Wien L 0-231.0 898 1184 12.01% 19.33% 68.66%-2.26 -5.0 11
1919-03-30 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-031.0 1184 898 68.66% 19.33% 12.01%+2.26 +5.0 21
1919-03-30 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-027.2 1034 797 67.57% 19.64% 12.79%+1.99 +12.5 17
1919-03-30 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-527.2 797 1034 12.79% 19.64% 67.57%-1.99 -12.5 8
1919-03-30 Floridsdorfer W 2-145.7 1045 1070 38.34% 21.20% 40.45%-0.14 +7.3 18
1919-03-30 @ Wiener AC L 1-245.7 1070 1045 40.45% 21.20% 38.34%+0.14 -7.3 9
1919-03-30 Hertha Wien W 1-037.3 857 758 54.67% 20.88% 24.44%+0.87 +5.1 13
1919-03-30 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-137.3 758 857 24.44% 20.88% 54.67%-0.87 -5.1 5
1919-04-13 Wacker Wien W 4-035.4 893 890 42.32% 21.20% 36.47%+0.09 +25.4 13
1919-04-13 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-435.4 890 893 36.47% 21.20% 42.32%-0.09 -25.4 7
1919-04-13 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-131.0 1063 785 70.46% 19.11% 10.42%+2.32 +6.9 11
1919-04-13 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-531.0 785 1063 10.42% 19.11% 70.46%-2.32 -6.9 8
1919-04-13 Hertha Wien W 3-239.8 1047 753 71.43% 18.90% 9.66%+2.45 +1.9 19
1919-04-13 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 2-339.8 753 1047 9.66% 18.90% 71.43%-2.45 -1.9 5
1919-04-13 Wiener AC L 0-143.2 1064 1053 43.49% 21.19% 35.32%+0.16 -8.2 17
1919-04-13 @ Wiener AF W 1-043.2 1053 1064 35.32% 21.19% 43.49%-0.16 +8.2 20
1919-05-11 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-444.9 778 862 30.31% 21.07% 48.63%-0.63 -8.9 8
1919-05-11 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-244.9 862 778 48.63% 21.07% 30.31%+0.63 +8.9 15
1919-05-11 Hertha Wien W 8-126.4 1189 751 78.69% 16.62% 4.69%+3.61 +5.1 23
1919-05-11 @ Rapid Wien L 1-826.4 751 1189 4.69% 16.62% 78.69%-3.61 -5.1 5
1919-05-11 Floridsdorfer L 0-135.1 865 1070 17.68% 20.24% 62.08%-1.60 -3.8 7
1919-05-11 @ Wacker Wien W 1-035.1 1070 865 62.08% 20.24% 17.68%+1.60 +3.8 13
1919-05-11 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 0-049.6 1056 918 58.81% 20.63% 20.57%+1.18 -1.8 18
1919-05-11 @ Wiener AF D 0-049.6 918 1056 20.57% 20.63% 58.81%-1.18 +1.8 14
1919-05-18 SC Rudolfshugel D 1-152.2 1061 1048 43.61% 21.19% 35.20%+0.16 -0.3 21
1919-05-18 @ Wiener AC D 1-152.2 1048 1061 35.20% 21.19% 43.61%-0.16 +0.3 20
1919-05-25 Wacker Wien D 0-049.4 769 861 29.41% 21.04% 49.55%-0.68 +0.9 9
1919-05-25 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 0-049.4 861 769 49.55% 21.04% 29.41%+0.68 -0.9 8
1919-05-25 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-241.5 1074 1049 45.34% 21.17% 33.48%+0.27 -16.0 13
1919-05-25 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-041.5 1049 1074 33.48% 21.17% 45.34%-0.27 +16.0 22
1919-05-25 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-251.1 746 920 20.44% 20.52% 59.04%-1.35 +21.5 7
1919-05-25 @ Hertha Wien L 2-551.1 920 746 59.04% 20.52% 20.44%+1.35 -21.5 14
1919-05-25 Wiener AC W 4-242.0 1194 1060 58.38% 20.66% 20.96%+1.14 +6.5 25
1919-05-25 @ Rapid Wien L 2-442.0 1060 1194 20.96% 20.66% 58.38%-1.14 -6.5 21
1919-05-25 Wiener AF W 1-047.9 871 1054 19.67% 20.45% 59.88%-1.42 +10.9 17
1919-05-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-147.9 1054 871 59.88% 20.45% 19.67%+1.42 -10.9 18
1919-05-29 Wacker Wien W 8-025.8 1200 860 74.13% 18.22% 7.65%+2.83 +11.7 27
1919-05-29 @ Rapid Wien L 0-825.8 860 1200 7.65% 18.22% 74.13%-2.83 -11.7 8
1919-06-01 Rapid Wien L 2-928.0 770 1212 5.50% 16.94% 77.56%-3.53 -4.9 9
1919-06-01 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 9-228.0 1212 770 77.56% 16.94% 5.50%+3.53 +4.9 29
1919-06-01 SC Rudolfshugel W 3-043.2 899 1065 21.23% 20.59% 58.18%-1.28 +29.0 16
1919-06-01 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-343.2 1065 899 58.18% 20.59% 21.23%+1.28 -29.0 22
1919-06-01 Wiener AF L 2-350.8 1058 1043 43.95% 21.19% 34.86%+0.18 -7.4 13
1919-06-01 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-250.8 1043 1058 34.86% 21.19% 43.95%-0.18 +7.4 20
1919-06-01 Hertha Wien L 1-352.5 1054 767 70.99% 19.00% 10.01%+2.39 -21.0 21
1919-06-01 @ Wiener AC W 3-152.5 767 1054 10.01% 19.00% 70.99%-2.39 +21.0 9
1919-06-01 Wacker Wien W 1-039.8 882 848 46.59% 21.15% 32.26%+0.34 +6.4 19
1919-06-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-139.8 848 882 32.26% 21.15% 46.59%-0.34 -6.4 8
1919-06-22 Floridsdorfer W 2-153.1 788 1050 13.47% 19.62% 66.91%-2.06 +11.4 11
1919-06-22 @ Hertha Wien L 1-253.1 1050 788 66.91% 19.62% 13.47%+2.06 -11.4 13
1919-06-22 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-031.6 1036 889 59.79% 20.55% 19.66%+1.26 +11.5 24
1919-06-22 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-331.6 889 1036 19.66% 20.55% 59.79%-1.26 -11.6 19
1919-06-22 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-035.0 1033 928 55.34% 20.85% 23.82%+0.92 +9.4 23
1919-06-22 @ Wiener AC L 0-235.0 928 1033 23.82% 20.85% 55.34%-0.92 -9.4 16
1919-06-22 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-346.6 1050 765 70.93% 19.01% 10.05%+2.38 -35.2 20
1919-06-22 @ Wiener AF W 3-046.6 765 1050 10.05% 19.01% 70.93%-2.38 +35.2 11
1919-06-29 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 8-235.0 1039 918 57.04% 20.75% 22.21%+1.04 +16.8 15
1919-06-29 @ Floridsdorfer L 2-835.0 918 1039 22.21% 20.75% 57.04%-1.04 -16.8 16
1919-06-29 Hertha Wien D 2-256.1 800 800 41.92% 21.21% 36.88%+0.06 -0.1 12
1919-06-29 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 2-256.1 800 800 36.88% 21.21% 41.92%-0.06 +0.1 12
1919-07-13 Rapid Wien L 0-331.1 1015 1217 17.99% 20.27% 61.73%-1.57 -10.6 20
1919-07-13 @ Wiener AF W 3-031.1 1217 1015 61.73% 20.27% 17.99%+1.57 +10.6 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1919-03-25 7.23% Wiener Sport-Club 845 2 @ Rapid Wien 1196 1
2 1919-06-01 10.01% Hertha Wien 767 3 @ Wiener AC 1054 1
3 1919-06-22 10.05% 1. Simmeringer SC 765 3 @ Wiener AF 1050 0
4 1918-10-13 11.02% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 891 2 @ Rapid Wien 1158 1
5 1919-03-23 12.12% Wiener Sport-Club 834 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1081 2
6 1918-09-22 12.92% @ Wiener Sport-Club 839 2 Floridsdorfer 1109 1
7 1919-06-22 13.47% @ Hertha Wien 788 2 Floridsdorfer 1050 1
8 1919-03-25 16.72% @ Wacker Wien 868 2 Wiener AF 1086 0
9 1919-05-25 19.67% @ Wiener Sport-Club 871 1 Wiener AF 1054 0
10 1919-05-25 20.44% @ Hertha Wien 746 5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 920 2
11 1918-08-18 21.22% 1. Simmeringer SC 814 5 @ Wacker Wien 944 2
12 1919-06-01 21.23% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 899 3 SC Rudolfshugel 1065 0
13 1918-09-22 22.87% Hertha Wien 790 3 @ Wacker Wien 904 2
14 1918-08-18 27.66% @ Hertha Wien 782 4 Wiener Sport-Club 889 1
15 1918-11-17 29.97% Wiener Sport-Club 829 2 @ Wacker Wien 881 0
16 1918-10-13 32.08% 1. Simmeringer SC 799 3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 835 2
17 1918-08-25 32.72% @ Wiener AF 1041 5 Floridsdorfer 1107 2
18 1919-05-25 33.48% SC Rudolfshugel 1049 2 @ Floridsdorfer 1074 0
19 1919-06-01 34.86% Wiener AF 1043 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1058 2
20 1919-04-13 35.32% Wiener AC 1053 1 @ Wiener AF 1064 0
21 1918-10-27 36.13% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1050 1 Floridsdorfer 1091 0
22 1919-03-30 38.34% @ Wiener AC 1045 2 Floridsdorfer 1070 1
23 1918-11-10 38.76% 1. Simmeringer SC 807 2 @ Hertha Wien 794 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1919-06-22 35.18 1. Simmeringer SC 3 765 10.05% @ Wiener AF 0 1050 70.93% 19.01%
2 1919-06-01 28.99 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 899 21.23% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1065 58.18% 20.59%
3 1918-08-25 26.56 SC Rudolfshugel 8 990 53.38% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 867 25.74% 20.88%
4 1919-04-13 25.39 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 893 42.32% Wacker Wien 0 890 36.47% 21.20%
5 1918-08-18 21.79 @ Hertha Wien 4 782 27.66% Wiener Sport-Club 1 889 51.37% 20.97%
6 1919-03-09 21.71 @ Rapid Wien 4 1154 48.83% Floridsdorfer 0 1103 30.07% 21.10%
7 1919-03-25 21.60 @ Wacker Wien 2 868 16.72% Wiener AF 0 1086 63.16% 20.12%
8 1919-05-25 21.47 @ Hertha Wien 5 746 20.44% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 920 59.04% 20.52%
9 1918-08-18 21.16 1. Simmeringer SC 5 814 21.22% @ Wacker Wien 2 944 58.10% 20.68%
10 1919-06-01 20.99 Hertha Wien 3 767 10.01% @ Wiener AC 1 1054 70.99% 19.00%
11 1919-03-23 20.18 @ Rapid Wien 7 1176 57.18% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1054 22.08% 20.74%
12 1919-03-02 20.10 Floridsdorfer 5 1083 57.88% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 920 21.51% 20.61%
13 1918-08-25 17.18 @ Wiener AF 5 1041 32.72% Floridsdorfer 2 1107 46.15% 21.13%
14 1918-11-17 17.11 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 903 56.53% Hertha Wien 0 787 22.69% 20.78%
15 1918-11-17 17.04 Wiener Sport-Club 2 829 29.97% @ Wacker Wien 0 881 48.92% 21.10%
16 1919-06-29 16.79 @ Floridsdorfer 8 1039 57.04% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 918 22.21% 20.75%
17 1918-09-22 16.03 @ SC Rudolfshugel 4 1024 58.27% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 892 21.07% 20.67%
18 1919-05-25 15.96 SC Rudolfshugel 2 1049 33.48% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1074 45.34% 21.17%
19 1918-08-18 15.31 Rapid Wien 3 1115 51.76% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1005 27.28% 20.96%
20 1918-09-29 15.29 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 876 45.39% Wiener Sport-Club 1 850 33.44% 21.17%
21 1918-08-25 14.33 @ Wiener AC 6 999 61.44% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 835 18.16% 20.41%
22 1918-10-13 13.89 @ Wiener AC 5 1017 57.24% Wacker Wien 1 895 22.02% 20.74%
23 1918-12-15 13.16 Wiener AF 7 1071 66.47% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 814 13.84% 19.69%
24 1919-03-02 12.97 @ Wiener AC 4 1029 63.14% Wiener Sport-Club 0 846 16.63% 20.23%
25 1919-03-25 12.71 Wiener Sport-Club 2 845 7.23% @ Rapid Wien 1 1196 74.73% 18.04%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1918-09-15 60.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1024 41.89% Wiener AC 3 1024 36.90% 21.21%
2 1919-03-23 57.6 Wiener Sport-Club 3 834 12.12% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1081 68.37% 19.51%
3 1918-10-27 56.4 @ Hertha Wien 2 792 15.06% Wiener AC 2 1031 65.05% 19.89%
4 1919-03-02 56.4 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1056 64.69% Wacker Wien 2 855 15.26% 20.05%
5 1918-08-18 56.2 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1108 55.83% Wiener AC 2 998 23.35% 20.82%
6 1918-11-17 56.2 @ Wiener AC 2 1028 26.31% Rapid Wien 2 1146 52.78% 20.91%
7 1918-08-25 56.1 @ Wacker Wien 2 923 44.81% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 902 34.01% 21.18%
8 1918-09-15 56.1 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 814 31.19% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 892 47.72% 21.09%
9 1919-03-09 56.1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 833 32.64% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 900 46.23% 21.13%
10 1919-06-29 56.1 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 800 41.92% Hertha Wien 2 800 36.88% 21.21%
11 1919-03-25 55.0 Wiener Sport-Club 2 845 7.23% @ Rapid Wien 1 1196 74.73% 18.04%
12 1918-09-22 54.4 Hertha Wien 3 790 22.87% @ Wacker Wien 2 904 56.34% 20.79%
13 1918-10-13 53.9 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 891 11.02% @ Rapid Wien 1 1158 69.71% 19.26%
14 1918-09-22 53.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 839 12.92% Floridsdorfer 1 1109 67.56% 19.52%
15 1919-06-22 53.1 @ Hertha Wien 2 788 13.47% Floridsdorfer 1 1050 66.91% 19.62%
16 1919-06-01 52.5 Hertha Wien 3 767 10.01% @ Wiener AC 1 1054 70.99% 19.00%
17 1918-11-10 52.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 827 17.91% Wiener AC 1 1030 61.82% 20.27%
18 1919-03-23 52.4 @ Wacker Wien 1 867 19.87% Wiener AC 1 1047 59.66% 20.47%
19 1918-08-18 52.3 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 901 23.78% Wiener AF 1 1042 55.45% 20.77%
20 1919-03-23 52.3 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 899 55.15% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 796 23.99% 20.86%
21 1919-05-18 52.2 @ Wiener AC 1 1061 43.61% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1048 35.20% 21.19%
22 1918-10-13 51.6 1. Simmeringer SC 3 799 32.08% @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 835 46.77% 21.15%
23 1919-05-25 51.1 @ Hertha Wien 5 746 20.44% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 920 59.04% 20.52%
24 1918-08-18 50.9 1. Simmeringer SC 5 814 21.22% @ Wacker Wien 2 944 58.10% 20.68%
25 1919-06-01 50.8 Wiener AF 3 1043 34.86% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1058 43.95% 21.19%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1919-05-29 25.8 @ Rapid Wien 8 1200 74.13% Wacker Wien 0 860 7.65% 18.22%
2 1919-05-11 26.4 @ Rapid Wien 8 1189 78.69% Hertha Wien 1 751 4.69% 16.62%
3 1919-03-30 27.2 @ SC Rudolfshugel 5 1034 67.57% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 797 12.79% 19.64%
4 1918-09-22 27.5 @ Rapid Wien 3 1146 73.64% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 815 8.00% 18.35%
5 1919-06-01 28.0 Rapid Wien 9 1212 77.56% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 770 5.50% 16.94%
6 1919-03-02 29.2 @ Wiener AC 4 1029 63.14% Wiener Sport-Club 0 846 16.63% 20.23%
7 1919-03-02 30.1 Floridsdorfer 5 1083 57.88% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 920 21.51% 20.61%
8 1918-12-15 30.4 Wiener AF 7 1071 66.47% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 814 13.84% 19.69%
9 1918-09-15 30.5 Rapid Wien 3 1136 63.64% @ Wacker Wien 0 914 16.30% 20.07%
10 1918-09-22 30.7 @ SC Rudolfshugel 4 1024 58.27% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 892 21.07% 20.67%
11 1919-03-30 31.0 Rapid Wien 2 1184 68.66% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 898 12.01% 19.33%
12 1919-04-13 31.0 @ Floridsdorfer 5 1063 70.46% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 785 10.42% 19.11%
13 1919-07-13 31.1 Rapid Wien 3 1217 61.73% @ Wiener AF 0 1015 17.99% 20.27%
14 1918-11-17 31.2 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 903 56.53% Hertha Wien 0 787 22.69% 20.78%
15 1919-06-22 31.6 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1036 59.79% Wiener Sport-Club 0 889 19.66% 20.55%
16 1918-08-25 32.6 @ Wiener AC 6 999 61.44% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 835 18.16% 20.41%
17 1919-03-23 33.2 @ Rapid Wien 7 1176 57.18% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1054 22.08% 20.74%
18 1918-09-08 33.3 Floridsdorfer 4 1098 68.09% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 821 12.48% 19.43%
19 1918-10-13 33.6 Wiener AF 4 1062 66.94% @ Hertha Wien 1 799 13.45% 19.62%
20 1919-03-09 33.6 @ Rapid Wien 4 1154 48.83% Floridsdorfer 0 1103 30.07% 21.10%
21 1918-08-25 34.0 SC Rudolfshugel 8 990 53.38% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 867 25.74% 20.88%
22 1918-08-18 34.1 Rapid Wien 3 1115 51.76% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1005 27.28% 20.96%
23 1918-09-29 34.1 SC Rudolfshugel 7 1040 64.28% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 810 15.73% 19.99%
24 1918-09-01 34.7 Rapid Wien 3 1132 69.12% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 840 11.64% 19.24%
25 1918-10-13 35.0 @ Wiener AC 5 1017 57.24% Wacker Wien 1 895 22.02% 20.74%