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1916-17 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

SC Rudolfshugel

6.12 points above expected

27 points · 20.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Wiener Amateur-Sportverein

3.36 points below expected

9 points · 12.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 13 3 2 29 64 28 +36 28.88 +0.12
2 Floridsdorfer 18 12 3 3 27 55 17 +38 25.40 +1.60
3 SC Rudolfshugel 18 12 3 3 27 49 30 +19 20.88 +6.12
4 Wiener AF 18 11 3 4 25 61 32 +29 26.84 -1.84
5 Wacker Wien 18 7 4 7 18 36 38 -2 18.50 -0.50
6 Wiener AC 18 7 4 7 18 34 40 -6 21.15 -3.15
7 Wiener Sport-Club 18 6 2 10 14 36 42 -6 12.84 +1.16
8 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 3 3 12 9 34 47 -13 12.36 -3.36
9 1. Simmeringer SC 18 3 1 14 7 25 64 -39 5.94 +1.06
10 Hertha Wien 18 1 4 13 6 20 76 -56 7.20 -1.20

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 SC Rudolfshugel 27 20.88 +6.12
2 Floridsdorfer 27 25.40 +1.60
3 Wiener Sport-Club 14 12.84 +1.16
4 1. Simmeringer SC 7 5.94 +1.06
5 Rapid Wien 29 28.88 +0.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 9 12.36 -3.36
2 Wiener AC 18 21.15 -3.15
3 Wiener AF 25 26.84 -1.84
4 Hertha Wien 6 7.20 -1.20
5 Wacker Wien 18 18.50 -0.50

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 SC Rudolfshugel 6 Mar 4 – May 13 1 in 93
2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Mar 4 – Mar 18 1 in 78
3 Floridsdorfer 6 Dec 3 – Apr 15 1 in 18
4 Rapid Wien 7 Apr 15 – Jun 24 1 in 8
5 1. Simmeringer SC 1 Aug 27 – Aug 27 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 5 Nov 12 – Apr 15 1 in 108
2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 6 Aug 27 – Oct 22 1 in 57
3 Wiener AF 3 May 13 – Jun 10 1 in 33
4 Rapid Wien 2 Mar 4 – Mar 11 1 in 31
5 1. Simmeringer SC 6 Sep 3 – Nov 12 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hertha Wien 2 Jul 1 – Jul 8 1 in 23
2 SC Rudolfshugel 7 Nov 26 – May 13 1 in 12
3 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Mar 4 – Mar 18 1 in 11
4 Wacker Wien 4 Oct 22 – Nov 19 1 in 10
5 Floridsdorfer 7 Nov 12 – Apr 15 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 7 Oct 22 – Apr 15 1 in 71
2 Rapid Wien 3 Nov 19 – Mar 11 1 in 29
3 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 9 Aug 27 – Dec 10 1 in 25
4 Wiener AF 4 May 13 – Jun 24 1 in 18
5 Wiener Sport-Club 5 Mar 4 – Apr 29 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1432 29 +13 10 8.2 +1.8
Floridsdorfer 1364 27 +38 8 7.4 +0.6
SC Rudolfshugel 1208 27 -8 7 6.7 +0.3
Wiener AF 1313 25 -55 3 6.3 -3.3
Wiener AC 1171 18 +28 8 6.4 +1.6
Wacker Wien 1096 18 -9 5 6.0 -1.0
Wiener Sport-Club 936 14 +14 4 2.8 +1.2
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 947 9 -20 1 3.2 -2.2
1. Simmeringer SC 727 7 +29 2 1.7 +0.3
Hertha Wien 715 6 -20 4 2.3 +1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FLO HW RW SR WW WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
0-0-2
0.38
2-0-0
2.30
0-0-2
0.28
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
0.67
0-0-2
0.56
0-0-2
0.35
1-0-1
1.34
0-1-1
1.27
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
5.37
 —
2-0-0
5.32
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
3.71
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.74
1-1-0
2.45
2-0-0
4.98
1-0-1
4.95
Hertha Wien
0-0-2
3.35
0-0-2
0.43
 —
0-0-2
0.34
0-1-1
0.61
0-1-1
0.79
0-1-1
0.60
0-0-2
0.40
1-1-0
1.52
0-0-2
1.44
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
5.50
1-0-1
3.75
2-0-0
5.43
 —
0-1-1
4.58
1-1-0
4.76
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-0
3.42
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
5.19
SC Rudolfshugel
2-0-0
5.20
1-0-1
1.94
1-1-0
5.10
1-1-0
1.10
 —
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
1.74
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.46
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
5.04
0-1-1
1.52
1-1-0
4.90
0-1-1
0.92
0-0-2
2.42
 —
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.21
2-0-0
4.08
1-1-0
4.09
Wiener AC
2-0-0
5.16
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
5.11
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.33
 —
1-0-1
1.52
0-2-0
4.42
1-0-1
4.41
Wiener AF
2-0-0
5.42
0-1-1
3.20
2-0-0
5.35
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-0
3.92
2-0-0
4.45
1-0-1
4.14
 —
1-0-1
5.04
2-0-0
5.00
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
1-0-1
4.33
0-0-2
0.72
0-1-1
4.14
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-2
1.58
0-2-0
1.25
1-0-1
0.66
 —
1-0-1
2.57
Wiener Sport-Club
1-1-0
4.39
1-0-1
0.75
2-0-0
4.22
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
1.20
0-1-1
1.57
1-0-1
1.25
0-0-2
0.70
1-0-1
3.07
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +5.4
Allowed 0.82 -4.6
Differential 0.90 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%2.22%2.78%1.67%2.78%3.89%16.67%
12.22%6.67%7.78%4.44%1.67%4.44%27.22%
22.78%7.78%3.33%2.22%2.22%2.78%21.11%
31.67%4.44%2.22%1.11%1.11%1.11%11.67%
42.78%1.67%2.22%1.11%2.22%0.56%10.56%
5+3.89%4.44%2.78%1.11%0.56%—12.78%
Total16.67%27.22%21.11%11.67%10.56%12.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.30 2.30 +0.00
SD 2.05 2.05 3.24
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%44.44%
2—————16.67%16.67%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 3.56 -2.17
SD 1.29 2.81 3.15
CV 0.93 0.79 —
Max 5 9 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
3———————
411.11%—————11.11%
5+11.11%16.67%————27.78%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 0.94 +2.11
SD 2.41 1.06 2.87
CV 0.79 1.12 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%—16.67%27.78%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3———————
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%16.67%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 4.22 -3.11
SD 1.02 2.46 2.74
CV 0.92 0.58 —
Max 4 8 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
25.56%16.67%——5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
411.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 1.56 +2.00
SD 1.98 1.34 2.47
CV 0.56 0.86 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%—11.11%
1—5.56%————5.56%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
45.56%—11.11%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 1.67 +1.06
SD 1.45 1.85 2.34
CV 0.53 1.11 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%——11.11%—27.78%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
2—16.67%—11.11%——27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4————11.11%—11.11%
5+—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
Total5.56%44.44%11.11%11.11%27.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.11 -0.11
SD 1.71 1.41 1.91
CV 0.86 0.67 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%5.56%16.67%
15.56%5.56%—16.67%—5.56%33.33%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%11.11%22.22%27.78%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.22 -0.33
SD 1.53 1.73 2.61
CV 0.81 0.78 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.78 +1.61
SD 2.59 1.96 3.48
CV 0.77 1.10 —
Max 8 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
1—5.56%27.78%—5.56%—38.89%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total5.56%11.11%55.56%—16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.61 -0.72
SD 2.14 1.82 3.16
CV 1.13 0.70 —
Max 7 8 +7
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
1—11.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total—33.33%38.89%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.33 -0.33
SD 2.54 1.68 3.48
CV 1.27 0.72 —
Max 9 7 +7
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1432 29 28.88 +0.12 57.8% 20 24 27 29 31 33 35
Floridsdorfer 1364 27 25.40 +1.60 74.2% 14 20 23 26 28 30 35
Wiener AF 1313 25 26.84 -1.84 32.3% 16 22 25 27 29 31 36
SC Rudolfshugel 1208 27 20.88 +6.12 97.7% 12 16 19 21 23 26 30
Wiener AC 1171 18 21.15 -3.15 21.0% 12 16 19 21 24 26 33
Wacker Wien 1096 18 18.50 -0.50 50.7% 6 13 16 18 21 24 27
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 947 9 12.36 -3.36 17.9% 2 8 10 12 14 17 22
Wiener Sport-Club 936 14 12.84 +1.16 71.3% 3 8 11 13 15 18 23
1. Simmeringer SC 727 7 5.94 +1.06 74.9% 0 2 4 6 8 10 15
Hertha Wien 715 6 7.20 -1.20 39.6% 0 3 6 7 9 12 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.33%
No Edge
43.33%16.67%40.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 11.59 Elo pts.
173 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.4 * Some Luck: 2.4 to 3.59 * Lucky: 3.59 to 4.79 * Wild Swing: 4.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.6 * Close: 0.6 to 0.89 * Off: 0.89 to 1.19 * Way Off: 1.19 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.62 points
Some Luck
02.997
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Off
00.751.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.70%
SC Rudolfshugel
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
17.90%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.07
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
88%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Frequent
0%35%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.452
Matchup Imbalance
0.63
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.69
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.90
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien58.80%25.60%11.50%3.70%0.40%—————
Floridsdorfer15.90%28.60%33.70%14.20%5.20%2.30%0.10%———
SC Rudolfshugel1.20%4.20%11.60%29.90%32.00%17.50%2.60%1.00%——
Wiener AF22.80%36.80%26.70%9.70%3.30%0.50%0.20%———
Wacker Wien—0.80%3.30%14.00%24.70%42.60%11.40%2.90%0.30%—
Wiener AC1.30%4.00%12.90%28.10%29.30%19.80%3.30%1.30%——
Wiener Sport-Club——0.30%0.10%3.10%10.30%42.10%34.70%7.30%2.10%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein———0.30%2.00%6.90%37.00%42.70%8.60%2.50%
1. Simmeringer SC——————1.10%6.10%35.60%57.20%
Hertha Wien—————0.10%2.20%11.30%48.20%38.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
1. Simmeringer SC 100%
Floridsdorfer 100%
Hertha Wien 100%
Rapid Wien 100%
SC Rudolfshugel 100%
Wacker Wien 100%
Wiener AC 100%
Wiener AF 100%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 100%
Wiener Sport-Club 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1916-08-27 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-149.4 938 705 69.31% 16.65% 14.04%+1.41 -10.5 0
1916-08-27 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 1-049.4 705 938 14.04% 16.65% 69.31%-1.41 +10.5 2
1916-08-27 Wacker Wien D 0-050.6 1303 1117 65.50% 16.99% 17.51%+1.14 -2.0 1
1916-08-27 @ Floridsdorfer D 0-050.6 1117 1303 17.51% 16.99% 65.50%-1.14 +2.0 1
1916-08-27 Wiener AC L 2-435.5 782 1216 6.09% 14.82% 79.09%-2.44 -1.6 0
1916-08-27 @ Hertha Wien W 4-235.5 1216 782 79.09% 14.82% 6.09%+2.44 +1.6 2
1916-08-27 Rapid Wien D 3-361.2 1154 1422 14.00% 16.54% 69.46%-1.48 +1.3 1
1916-08-27 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 3-361.2 1422 1154 69.46% 16.54% 14.00%+1.48 -1.3 1
1916-08-27 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-028.1 1337 937 78.99% 14.95% 6.05%+2.37 +2.0 2
1916-08-27 @ Wiener AF L 0-228.1 937 1337 6.05% 14.95% 78.99%-2.37 -2.0 0
1916-09-03 Wiener AF L 0-722.0 716 1339 2.26% 12.35% 85.39%-3.53 -2.3 2
1916-09-03 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-022.0 1339 716 85.39% 12.35% 2.26%+3.53 +2.3 4
1916-09-03 Floridsdorfer W 2-141.3 1421 1301 58.82% 17.37% 23.81%+0.76 +3.8 3
1916-09-03 @ Rapid Wien L 1-241.3 1301 1421 23.81% 17.37% 58.82%-0.76 -3.8 1
1916-09-03 Hertha Wien W 5-129.6 1119 781 76.10% 15.64% 8.26%+2.02 +4.4 3
1916-09-03 @ Wacker Wien L 1-529.6 781 1119 8.26% 15.64% 76.10%-2.02 -4.4 0
1916-09-03 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-348.8 1217 1155 51.98% 17.58% 30.44%+0.42 +4.4 4
1916-09-03 @ Wiener AC L 3-448.8 1155 1217 30.44% 17.58% 51.98%-0.42 -4.4 1
1916-09-03 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-143.3 935 927 44.82% 17.67% 37.51%+0.12 +5.6 2
1916-09-03 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-243.3 927 935 37.51% 17.67% 44.82%-0.12 -5.6 0
1916-09-17 Wiener Sport-Club L 2-931.9 713 941 17.00% 16.86% 66.14%-1.25 -12.2 2
1916-09-17 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 9-231.9 941 713 66.14% 16.86% 17.00%+1.25 +12.2 4
1916-09-17 Wiener AF L 1-233.2 921 1341 6.54% 14.99% 78.48%-2.36 -1.1 0
1916-09-17 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-133.2 1341 921 78.48% 14.99% 6.54%+2.36 +1.1 6
1916-09-17 Wiener AC D 2-256.7 1298 1222 53.74% 17.54% 28.72%+0.51 -0.7 2
1916-09-17 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-256.7 1222 1298 28.72% 17.54% 53.74%-0.51 +0.7 5
1916-09-17 Rapid Wien L 1-724.9 776 1425 1.97% 12.00% 86.03%-3.68 -1.4 0
1916-09-17 @ Hertha Wien W 7-124.9 1425 776 86.03% 12.00% 1.97%+3.68 +1.4 5
1916-09-17 Wacker Wien W 3-246.4 1151 1123 47.45% 17.65% 34.90%+0.23 +5.0 3
1916-09-17 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 2-346.4 1123 1151 34.90% 17.65% 47.45%-0.23 -5.0 3
1916-09-24 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-439.2 920 1156 16.36% 16.80% 66.84%-1.30 -4.2 0
1916-09-24 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-239.2 1156 920 66.84% 16.80% 16.36%+1.30 +4.2 5
1916-09-24 Rapid Wien L 0-430.7 1222 1426 19.02% 17.03% 63.95%-1.11 -11.8 5
1916-09-24 @ Wiener AC W 4-030.7 1426 1222 63.95% 17.03% 19.02%+1.11 +11.8 7
1916-09-24 Hertha Wien W 8-227.3 1342 775 84.70% 12.79% 2.51%+3.35 +1.5 8
1916-09-24 @ Wiener AF L 2-827.3 775 1342 2.51% 12.79% 84.70%-3.35 -1.5 0
1916-09-24 Wacker Wien D 1-152.7 953 1118 22.70% 17.26% 60.05%-0.89 +1.3 5
1916-09-24 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-152.7 1118 953 60.05% 17.26% 22.70%+0.89 -1.3 4
1916-10-08 Hertha Wien W 6-022.5 1297 773 83.46% 13.38% 3.16%+3.09 +2.9 4
1916-10-08 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-622.5 773 1297 3.16% 13.38% 83.46%-3.09 -2.9 0
1916-10-08 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-128.9 1438 916 83.40% 13.40% 3.20%+3.08 +1.3 9
1916-10-08 @ Rapid Wien L 1-428.9 916 1438 3.20% 13.40% 83.40%-3.08 -1.3 0
1916-10-08 Wiener AF L 1-237.2 1117 1344 17.09% 16.87% 66.04%-1.24 -2.8 4
1916-10-08 @ Wacker Wien W 2-137.2 1344 1117 66.04% 16.87% 17.09%+1.24 +2.8 10
1916-10-08 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-026.8 1210 701 83.02% 13.57% 3.41%+3.01 +1.1 7
1916-10-08 @ Wiener AC L 0-226.8 701 1210 3.41% 13.57% 83.02%-3.01 -1.1 2
1916-10-08 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-232.5 955 1160 18.86% 17.02% 64.12%-1.12 -6.2 5
1916-10-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-032.5 1160 955 64.12% 17.02% 18.86%+1.12 +6.2 7
1916-10-22 Rapid Wien L 3-633.7 700 1439 1.22% 10.76% 88.02%-4.21 -0.4 2
1916-10-22 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-333.7 1439 700 88.02% 10.76% 1.22%+4.21 +0.4 11
1916-10-22 Wacker Wien L 1-237.7 915 1114 19.41% 17.06% 63.54%-1.09 -3.2 0
1916-10-22 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-137.7 1114 915 63.54% 17.06% 19.41%+1.09 +3.2 6
1916-10-22 Wiener Sport-Club W 6-128.4 1300 948 76.77% 15.50% 7.73%+2.10 +5.0 6
1916-10-22 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-628.4 948 1300 7.73% 15.50% 76.77%-2.10 -5.1 5
1916-10-22 Wiener AC W 6-030.0 1346 1212 60.49% 17.29% 22.21%+0.85 +19.9 12
1916-10-22 @ Wiener AF L 0-630.0 1212 1346 22.21% 17.29% 60.49%-0.85 -19.9 7
1916-10-29 Wiener AF D 1-156.4 1439 1366 53.39% 17.55% 29.06%+0.49 -0.9 12
1916-10-29 @ Rapid Wien D 1-156.4 1366 1439 29.06% 17.55% 53.39%-0.49 +0.9 13
1916-10-29 Floridsdorfer W 2-149.4 1166 1305 25.53% 17.39% 57.08%-0.73 +8.2 9
1916-10-29 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-249.4 1305 1166 57.08% 17.39% 25.53%+0.73 -8.1 6
1916-10-29 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-131.3 1117 700 79.77% 14.73% 5.50%+2.48 +1.6 8
1916-10-29 @ Wacker Wien L 1-331.3 700 1117 5.50% 14.73% 79.77%-2.48 -1.6 2
1916-10-29 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-153.0 1192 912 72.68% 16.23% 11.09%+1.69 -2.3 8
1916-10-29 @ Wiener AC D 1-153.0 912 1192 11.09% 16.23% 72.68%-1.69 +2.3 1
1916-11-12 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-325.6 698 1174 4.87% 14.29% 80.83%-2.69 -2.4 2
1916-11-12 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-025.6 1174 698 80.83% 14.29% 4.87%+2.69 +2.4 11
1916-11-12 Wiener AF D 1-154.1 1297 1367 33.81% 17.61% 48.58%-0.34 +0.5 7
1916-11-12 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-154.1 1367 1297 48.58% 17.61% 33.81%+0.34 -0.5 14
1916-11-12 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-256.3 770 914 24.96% 17.37% 57.68%-0.76 +0.9 1
1916-11-12 @ Hertha Wien D 2-256.3 914 770 57.68% 17.37% 24.96%+0.76 -0.9 2
1916-11-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-027.1 1439 943 82.58% 13.75% 3.67%+2.93 +1.2 14
1916-11-12 @ Rapid Wien L 0-227.1 943 1439 3.67% 13.75% 82.58%-2.93 -1.2 5
1916-11-12 Wacker Wien L 2-351.9 1189 1119 53.04% 17.56% 29.40%+0.47 -7.2 8
1916-11-12 @ Wiener AC W 3-251.9 1119 1189 29.40% 17.56% 53.04%-0.47 +7.2 10
1916-11-19 Hertha Wien W 3-145.3 696 771 33.17% 17.60% 49.23%-0.37 +12.3 4
1916-11-19 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-345.3 771 696 49.23% 17.60% 33.17%+0.37 -12.3 1
1916-11-19 Rapid Wien D 4-464.5 1126 1440 11.18% 16.13% 72.69%-1.75 +1.2 11
1916-11-19 @ Wacker Wien D 4-464.5 1440 1126 72.69% 16.13% 11.18%+1.75 -1.3 15
1916-11-19 SC Rudolfshugel W 7-338.5 1367 1177 65.82% 16.96% 17.22%+1.16 +7.0 16
1916-11-19 @ Wiener AF L 3-738.5 1177 1367 17.22% 16.96% 65.82%-1.16 -7.0 11
1916-11-19 Wiener AC W 3-150.5 942 1182 16.03% 16.77% 67.20%-1.32 +16.5 7
1916-11-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-350.5 1182 942 67.20% 16.77% 16.03%+1.32 -16.5 8
1916-11-26 Hertha Wien D 1-153.5 1170 759 79.50% 14.81% 5.69%+2.44 -2.8 12
1916-11-26 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 1-153.5 759 1170 5.69% 14.81% 79.50%-2.44 +2.8 2
1916-12-03 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-131.1 1297 708 85.27% 12.49% 2.24%+3.47 +0.4 9
1916-12-03 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-231.1 708 1297 2.24% 12.49% 85.27%-3.47 -0.4 4
1916-12-10 Hertha Wien W 7-130.7 959 762 66.45% 16.91% 16.64%+1.21 +12.6 9
1916-12-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-730.7 762 959 16.64% 16.91% 66.45%-1.21 -12.6 2
1916-12-10 Floridsdorfer L 0-425.5 913 1298 7.82% 15.39% 76.78%-2.16 -5.0 2
1916-12-10 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-025.5 1298 913 76.78% 15.39% 7.82%+2.16 +5.0 11
1917-03-04 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 2-734.9 708 908 19.32% 17.05% 63.63%-1.09 -10.2 4
1917-03-04 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-234.9 908 708 63.63% 17.05% 19.32%+1.09 +10.2 4
1917-03-04 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-456.7 1439 1167 72.12% 16.31% 11.57%+1.64 -15.9 15
1917-03-04 @ Rapid Wien W 4-256.7 1167 1439 11.57% 16.31% 72.12%-1.64 +15.9 14
1917-03-04 Floridsdorfer L 0-135.6 1127 1303 21.70% 17.20% 61.10%-0.95 -3.7 11
1917-03-04 @ Wacker Wien W 1-035.6 1303 1127 61.10% 17.20% 21.70%+0.95 +3.7 13
1917-03-04 Wiener AF L 1-332.1 971 1374 7.14% 15.19% 77.67%-2.26 -2.1 9
1917-03-04 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-132.1 1374 971 77.67% 15.19% 7.14%+2.26 +2.1 18
1917-03-11 Wiener Sport-Club W 7-036.7 918 969 36.45% 17.65% 45.90%-0.23 +43.0 6
1917-03-11 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-736.7 969 918 45.90% 17.65% 36.45%+0.23 -43.0 9
1917-03-11 Rapid Wien W 2-150.6 1306 1423 28.05% 17.48% 54.47%-0.61 +7.8 15
1917-03-11 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-250.6 1423 1306 54.47% 17.48% 28.05%+0.61 -7.8 15
1917-03-11 Wiener AC W 3-141.6 1183 1166 46.07% 17.66% 36.26%+0.17 +9.5 16
1917-03-11 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-341.6 1166 1183 36.26% 17.66% 46.07%-0.17 -9.5 8
1917-03-11 1. Simmeringer SC W 8-124.1 1376 698 87.34% 11.27% 1.39%+3.99 +1.2 20
1917-03-11 @ Wiener AF L 1-824.1 698 1376 1.39% 11.27% 87.34%-3.99 -1.2 4
1917-03-18 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-434.1 1124 1192 34.05% 17.62% 48.34%-0.33 -19.8 11
1917-03-18 @ Wacker Wien W 4-034.1 1192 1124 48.34% 17.62% 34.05%+0.33 +19.8 18
1917-03-18 Floridsdorfer L 1-535.0 1156 1314 23.43% 17.30% 59.28%-0.85 -11.9 8
1917-03-18 @ Wiener AC W 5-135.0 1314 1156 59.28% 17.30% 23.43%+0.85 +11.9 17
1917-03-18 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 2-359.1 1377 961 79.68% 14.76% 5.56%+2.47 -10.7 20
1917-03-18 @ Wiener AF W 3-259.1 961 1377 5.56% 14.76% 79.68%-2.47 +10.7 8
1917-03-18 1. Simmeringer SC D 1-152.9 926 696 69.13% 16.67% 14.20%+1.40 -2.0 10
1917-03-18 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-152.9 696 926 14.20% 16.67% 69.13%-1.40 +2.0 5
1917-04-15 Floridsdorfer L 0-128.0 698 1326 2.21% 12.28% 85.51%-3.56 -0.4 5
1917-04-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 1-028.0 1326 698 85.51% 12.28% 2.21%+3.56 +0.4 19
1917-04-15 Wiener AF L 0-324.3 749 1366 2.33% 12.43% 85.24%-3.50 -1.1 2
1917-04-15 @ Hertha Wien W 3-024.3 1366 749 85.24% 12.43% 2.33%+3.50 +1.1 22
1917-04-15 Wiener AC W 3-134.4 1415 1144 72.07% 16.31% 11.61%+1.63 +3.4 17
1917-04-15 @ Rapid Wien L 1-334.4 1144 1415 11.61% 16.31% 72.07%-1.63 -3.4 8
1917-04-15 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-030.8 1212 972 69.92% 16.58% 13.50%+1.46 +4.5 20
1917-04-15 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-230.8 972 1212 13.50% 16.58% 69.92%-1.46 -4.5 8
1917-04-15 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-137.2 1104 924 64.92% 17.03% 18.05%+1.11 +3.0 13
1917-04-15 @ Wacker Wien L 1-237.2 924 1104 18.05% 17.03% 64.92%-1.11 -3.0 10
1917-04-22 Hertha Wien W 8-021.9 1418 748 87.17% 11.38% 1.46%+3.94 +1.7 19
1917-04-22 @ Rapid Wien L 0-821.9 748 1418 1.46% 11.38% 87.17%-3.94 -1.7 2
1917-04-29 Wiener AC L 1-429.9 698 1141 5.80% 14.71% 79.49%-2.49 -2.4 5
1917-04-29 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-129.9 1141 698 79.49% 14.71% 5.80%+2.49 +2.4 10
1917-04-29 Rapid Wien L 1-232.9 968 1420 5.52% 14.59% 79.89%-2.55 -0.9 8
1917-04-29 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-132.9 1420 968 79.89% 14.59% 5.52%+2.55 +0.9 21
1917-04-29 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-133.2 1217 921 73.66% 16.08% 10.26%+1.78 +3.0 22
1917-04-29 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-333.2 921 1217 10.26% 16.08% 73.66%-1.78 -3.0 10
1917-04-29 Wacker Wien W 3-239.6 1367 1107 71.36% 16.41% 12.23%+1.57 +1.9 24
1917-04-29 @ Wiener AF L 2-339.6 1107 1367 12.23% 16.41% 71.36%-1.57 -2.0 13
1917-05-13 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-627.2 746 1220 4.95% 14.33% 80.72%-2.67 -3.2 2
1917-05-13 @ Hertha Wien W 6-127.2 1220 746 80.72% 14.33% 4.95%+2.67 +3.2 24
1917-05-13 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-231.0 1421 696 88.29% 10.63% 1.08%+4.26 +0.4 23
1917-05-13 @ Rapid Wien L 2-531.0 696 1421 1.08% 10.63% 88.29%-4.26 -0.4 5
1917-05-13 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-448.6 1105 967 60.86% 17.28% 21.86%+0.87 +3.2 15
1917-05-13 @ Wacker Wien L 4-548.6 967 1105 21.86% 17.28% 60.86%-0.87 -3.2 8
1917-05-13 Wiener AF W 5-252.8 1143 1369 17.12% 16.87% 66.00%-1.24 +19.9 12
1917-05-13 @ Wiener AC L 2-552.8 1369 1143 66.00% 16.87% 17.12%+1.24 -19.9 24
1917-05-13 Floridsdorfer W 4-257.2 918 1326 6.93% 15.12% 77.95%-2.29 +17.1 12
1917-05-13 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-457.2 1326 918 77.95% 15.12% 6.93%+2.29 -17.1 19
1917-05-20 Wacker Wien L 1-233.3 695 1108 6.76% 15.06% 78.17%-2.32 -1.1 5
1917-05-20 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-133.3 1108 695 78.17% 15.06% 6.76%+2.32 +1.1 17
1917-05-20 Wiener AC D 2-256.4 963 1163 19.39% 17.05% 63.56%-1.09 +1.2 9
1917-05-20 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-256.4 1163 963 63.56% 17.05% 19.39%+1.09 -1.2 13
1917-05-20 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-032.6 1309 1223 55.00% 17.50% 27.50%+0.57 +16.4 21
1917-05-20 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-432.6 1223 1309 27.50% 17.50% 55.00%-0.57 -16.4 24
1917-05-20 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-434.9 743 935 20.06% 17.10% 62.83%-1.04 -8.0 2
1917-05-20 @ Hertha Wien W 4-134.9 935 743 62.83% 17.10% 20.06%+1.04 +8.0 14
1917-05-20 Rapid Wien L 3-452.7 1349 1421 33.63% 17.61% 48.76%-0.35 -4.8 24
1917-05-20 @ Wiener AF W 4-352.7 1421 1349 48.76% 17.61% 33.63%+0.35 +4.8 25
1917-06-10 Hertha Wien L 1-252.4 965 735 69.10% 16.67% 14.23%+1.39 -9.8 9
1917-06-10 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-152.4 735 965 14.23% 16.67% 69.10%-1.39 +9.8 4
1917-06-10 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-130.3 1206 694 83.12% 13.53% 3.36%+3.03 +1.0 26
1917-06-10 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-330.3 694 1206 3.36% 13.53% 83.12%-3.03 -0.9 5
1917-06-10 Wiener AC L 0-139.9 1109 1162 36.24% 17.65% 46.12%-0.24 -5.8 17
1917-06-10 @ Wacker Wien W 1-039.9 1162 1109 46.12% 17.65% 36.24%+0.24 +5.8 15
1917-06-10 Floridsdorfer L 1-741.4 1345 1326 46.28% 17.66% 36.06%+0.18 -30.9 24
1917-06-10 @ Wiener AF W 7-141.4 1326 1345 36.06% 17.66% 46.28%-0.18 +30.9 23
1917-06-10 Rapid Wien L 1-232.6 943 1426 4.72% 14.21% 81.07%-2.72 -0.8 14
1917-06-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-132.6 1426 943 81.07% 14.21% 4.72%+2.72 +0.8 27
1917-06-17 Floridsdorfer L 1-231.2 745 1357 2.40% 12.50% 85.10%-3.47 -0.4 4
1917-06-17 @ Hertha Wien W 2-131.2 1357 745 85.10% 12.50% 2.40%+3.47 +0.4 25
1917-06-24 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 8-024.4 1357 955 79.12% 14.92% 5.96%+2.39 +7.3 27
1917-06-24 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-824.4 955 1357 5.96% 14.92% 79.12%-2.39 -7.3 9
1917-06-24 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-538.2 745 693 50.63% 17.60% 31.77%+0.36 -34.1 4
1917-06-24 @ Hertha Wien W 5-038.2 693 745 31.77% 17.60% 50.63%-0.36 +34.1 7
1917-06-24 Wacker Wien W 4-026.5 1427 1104 75.28% 15.80% 8.92%+1.94 +5.7 29
1917-06-24 @ Rapid Wien L 0-426.5 1104 1427 8.92% 15.80% 75.28%-1.94 -5.7 17
1917-06-24 Wiener AF D 0-050.7 1207 1314 29.28% 17.52% 53.21%-0.55 +0.9 27
1917-06-24 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 0-050.7 1314 1207 53.21% 17.52% 29.28%+0.55 -0.9 25
1917-06-24 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-029.3 1168 943 68.76% 16.70% 14.53%+1.37 +7.0 17
1917-06-24 @ Wiener AC L 0-329.3 943 1168 14.53% 16.70% 68.76%-1.37 -7.0 14
1917-07-01 Wacker Wien D 4-464.0 710 1098 7.71% 15.36% 76.94%-2.17 +1.4 5
1917-07-01 @ Hertha Wien D 4-464.0 1098 710 76.94% 15.36% 7.71%+2.17 -1.4 18
1917-07-08 Hertha Wien D 0-051.2 1175 712 81.48% 14.17% 4.35%+2.74 -3.3 18
1917-07-08 @ Wiener AC D 0-051.2 712 1175 4.35% 14.17% 81.48%-2.74 +3.3 6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1917-03-18 5.56% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 961 3 @ Wiener AF 1377 2
2 1917-05-13 6.93% @ Wiener Sport-Club 918 4 Floridsdorfer 1326 2
3 1917-03-04 11.57% SC Rudolfshugel 1167 4 @ Rapid Wien 1439 2
4 1916-08-27 14.04% 1. Simmeringer SC 705 1 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 938 0
5 1917-06-10 14.23% Hertha Wien 735 2 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 965 1
6 1916-11-19 16.03% @ Wiener Sport-Club 942 3 Wiener AC 1182 1
7 1917-05-13 17.12% @ Wiener AC 1143 5 Wiener AF 1369 2
8 1916-10-29 25.53% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1166 2 Floridsdorfer 1305 1
9 1917-03-11 28.05% @ Floridsdorfer 1306 2 Rapid Wien 1423 1
10 1916-11-12 29.40% Wacker Wien 1119 3 @ Wiener AC 1189 2
11 1917-06-24 31.77% 1. Simmeringer SC 693 5 @ Hertha Wien 745 0
12 1916-11-19 33.17% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 696 3 Hertha Wien 771 1
13 1917-06-10 36.06% Floridsdorfer 1326 7 @ Wiener AF 1345 1
14 1917-03-11 36.45% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 918 7 Wiener Sport-Club 969 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1917-03-11 43.01 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 7 918 36.45% Wiener Sport-Club 0 969 45.90% 17.65%
2 1917-06-24 34.12 1. Simmeringer SC 5 693 31.77% @ Hertha Wien 0 745 50.63% 17.60%
3 1917-06-10 30.88 Floridsdorfer 7 1326 36.06% @ Wiener AF 1 1345 46.28% 17.66%
4 1916-10-22 19.93 @ Wiener AF 6 1346 60.49% Wiener AC 0 1212 22.21% 17.29%
5 1917-05-13 19.91 @ Wiener AC 5 1143 17.12% Wiener AF 2 1369 66.00% 16.87%
6 1917-03-18 19.76 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1192 48.34% @ Wacker Wien 0 1124 34.05% 17.62%
7 1917-05-13 17.10 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 918 6.93% Floridsdorfer 2 1326 77.95% 15.12%
8 1916-11-19 16.54 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 942 16.03% Wiener AC 1 1182 67.20% 16.77%
9 1917-05-20 16.44 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1309 55.00% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1223 27.50% 17.50%
10 1917-03-04 15.90 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1167 11.57% @ Rapid Wien 2 1439 72.12% 16.31%
11 1916-12-10 12.61 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 959 66.45% Hertha Wien 1 762 16.64% 16.91%
12 1916-11-19 12.32 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 696 33.17% Hertha Wien 1 771 49.23% 17.60%
13 1916-09-17 12.18 Wiener Sport-Club 9 941 66.14% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 713 17.00% 16.86%
14 1917-03-18 11.89 Floridsdorfer 5 1314 59.28% @ Wiener AC 1 1156 23.43% 17.30%
15 1916-09-24 11.80 Rapid Wien 4 1426 63.95% @ Wiener AC 0 1222 19.02% 17.03%
16 1917-03-18 10.70 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 961 5.56% @ Wiener AF 2 1377 79.68% 14.76%
17 1916-08-27 10.46 1. Simmeringer SC 1 705 14.04% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 938 69.31% 16.65%
18 1917-03-04 10.23 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 7 908 63.63% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 708 19.32% 17.05%
19 1917-06-10 9.83 Hertha Wien 2 735 14.23% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 965 69.10% 16.67%
20 1917-03-11 9.52 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1183 46.07% Wiener AC 1 1166 36.26% 17.66%
21 1916-10-29 8.15 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1166 25.53% Floridsdorfer 1 1305 57.08% 17.39%
22 1917-05-20 8.01 Wiener Sport-Club 4 935 62.83% @ Hertha Wien 1 743 20.06% 17.10%
23 1917-03-11 7.80 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1306 28.05% Rapid Wien 1 1423 54.47% 17.48%
24 1917-06-24 7.31 @ Floridsdorfer 8 1357 79.12% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 955 5.96% 14.92%
25 1916-11-12 7.22 Wacker Wien 3 1119 29.40% @ Wiener AC 2 1189 53.04% 17.56%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1916-11-19 64.5 @ Wacker Wien 4 1126 11.18% Rapid Wien 4 1440 72.69% 16.13%
2 1917-07-01 64.0 @ Hertha Wien 4 710 7.71% Wacker Wien 4 1098 76.94% 15.36%
3 1916-08-27 61.2 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1154 14.00% Rapid Wien 3 1422 69.46% 16.54%
4 1917-03-18 59.1 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 961 5.56% @ Wiener AF 2 1377 79.68% 14.76%
5 1917-05-13 57.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 918 6.93% Floridsdorfer 2 1326 77.95% 15.12%
6 1916-09-17 56.7 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1298 53.74% Wiener AC 2 1222 28.72% 17.54%
7 1917-03-04 56.7 SC Rudolfshugel 4 1167 11.57% @ Rapid Wien 2 1439 72.12% 16.31%
8 1916-10-29 56.4 @ Rapid Wien 1 1439 53.39% Wiener AF 1 1366 29.06% 17.55%
9 1917-05-20 56.4 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 963 19.39% Wiener AC 2 1163 63.56% 17.05%
10 1916-11-12 56.3 @ Hertha Wien 2 770 24.96% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 914 57.68% 17.37%
11 1916-11-12 54.1 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1297 33.81% Wiener AF 1 1367 48.58% 17.61%
12 1916-11-26 53.5 @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1170 79.50% Hertha Wien 1 759 5.69% 14.81%
13 1916-10-29 53.0 @ Wiener AC 1 1192 72.68% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 912 11.09% 16.23%
14 1917-03-18 52.9 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 926 69.13% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 696 14.20% 16.67%
15 1917-05-13 52.8 @ Wiener AC 5 1143 17.12% Wiener AF 2 1369 66.00% 16.87%
16 1916-09-24 52.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 953 22.70% Wacker Wien 1 1118 60.05% 17.26%
17 1917-05-20 52.7 Rapid Wien 4 1421 48.76% @ Wiener AF 3 1349 33.63% 17.61%
18 1917-06-10 52.4 Hertha Wien 2 735 14.23% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 965 69.10% 16.67%
19 1916-11-12 51.9 Wacker Wien 3 1119 29.40% @ Wiener AC 2 1189 53.04% 17.56%
20 1917-07-08 51.2 @ Wiener AC 0 1175 81.48% Hertha Wien 0 712 4.35% 14.17%
21 1917-06-24 50.7 @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1207 29.28% Wiener AF 0 1314 53.21% 17.52%
22 1916-08-27 50.6 @ Floridsdorfer 0 1303 65.50% Wacker Wien 0 1117 17.51% 16.99%
23 1917-03-11 50.6 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1306 28.05% Rapid Wien 1 1423 54.47% 17.48%
24 1916-11-19 50.5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 942 16.03% Wiener AC 1 1182 67.20% 16.77%
25 1916-08-27 49.4 1. Simmeringer SC 1 705 14.04% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 938 69.31% 16.65%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1917-04-22 21.9 @ Rapid Wien 8 1418 87.17% Hertha Wien 0 748 1.46% 11.38%
2 1916-09-03 22.0 Wiener AF 7 1339 85.39% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 716 2.26% 12.35%
3 1916-10-08 22.5 @ Floridsdorfer 6 1297 83.46% Hertha Wien 0 773 3.16% 13.38%
4 1917-03-11 24.1 @ Wiener AF 8 1376 87.34% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 698 1.39% 11.27%
5 1917-04-15 24.3 Wiener AF 3 1366 85.24% @ Hertha Wien 0 749 2.33% 12.43%
6 1917-06-24 24.4 @ Floridsdorfer 8 1357 79.12% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 955 5.96% 14.92%
7 1916-09-17 24.9 Rapid Wien 7 1425 86.03% @ Hertha Wien 1 776 1.97% 12.00%
8 1916-12-10 25.5 Floridsdorfer 4 1298 76.78% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 913 7.82% 15.39%
9 1916-11-12 25.6 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1174 80.83% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 698 4.87% 14.29%
10 1917-06-24 26.5 @ Rapid Wien 4 1427 75.28% Wacker Wien 0 1104 8.92% 15.80%
11 1916-10-08 26.8 @ Wiener AC 2 1210 83.02% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 701 3.41% 13.57%
12 1916-11-12 27.1 @ Rapid Wien 2 1439 82.58% Wiener Sport-Club 0 943 3.67% 13.75%
13 1917-05-13 27.2 SC Rudolfshugel 6 1220 80.72% @ Hertha Wien 1 746 4.95% 14.33%
14 1916-09-24 27.3 @ Wiener AF 8 1342 84.70% Hertha Wien 2 775 2.51% 12.79%
15 1917-04-15 28.0 Floridsdorfer 1 1326 85.51% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 698 2.21% 12.28%
16 1916-08-27 28.1 @ Wiener AF 2 1337 78.99% Wiener Sport-Club 0 937 6.05% 14.95%
17 1916-10-22 28.4 @ Floridsdorfer 6 1300 76.77% Wiener Sport-Club 1 948 7.73% 15.50%
18 1916-10-08 28.9 @ Rapid Wien 4 1438 83.40% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 916 3.20% 13.40%
19 1917-06-24 29.3 @ Wiener AC 3 1168 68.76% Wiener Sport-Club 0 943 14.53% 16.70%
20 1916-09-03 29.6 @ Wacker Wien 5 1119 76.10% Hertha Wien 1 781 8.26% 15.64%
21 1917-04-29 29.9 Wiener AC 4 1141 79.49% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 698 5.80% 14.71%
22 1916-10-22 30.0 @ Wiener AF 6 1346 60.49% Wiener AC 0 1212 22.21% 17.29%
23 1917-06-10 30.3 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1206 83.12% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 694 3.36% 13.53%
24 1916-09-24 30.7 Rapid Wien 4 1426 63.95% @ Wiener AC 0 1222 19.02% 17.03%
25 1916-12-10 30.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 7 959 66.45% Hertha Wien 1 762 16.64% 16.91%