Home / Leagues / Austria / Austrian Football Championship / 1915-16
‹ ›

1915-16 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floridsdorfer

5.13 points above expected

29 points · 23.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hertha Wien

5.40 points below expected

3 points · 8.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 15 1 2 31 87 26 +61 26.97 +4.03
2 Floridsdorfer 18 14 1 3 29 51 18 +33 23.87 +5.13
3 Wiener AF 18 12 2 4 26 65 24 +41 25.14 +0.86
4 Wiener AC 18 12 2 4 26 64 35 +29 27.15 -1.15
5 SC Rudolfshugel 18 10 2 6 22 54 39 +15 18.56 +3.44
6 Wacker Wien 18 6 6 6 18 28 34 -6 14.24 +3.76
7 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 6 2 10 14 23 46 -23 14.88 -0.88
8 Wiener Sport-Club 18 4 1 13 9 28 49 -21 13.49 -4.49
9 Hertha Wien 18 1 1 16 3 12 68 -56 8.40 -5.40
10 1. Simmeringer SC 18 1 0 17 2 18 91 -73 7.29 -5.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floridsdorfer 29 23.87 +5.13
2 Rapid Wien 31 26.97 +4.03
3 Wacker Wien 18 14.24 +3.76
4 SC Rudolfshugel 22 18.56 +3.44
5 Wiener AF 26 25.14 +0.86

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hertha Wien 3 8.40 -5.40
2 1. Simmeringer SC 2 7.29 -5.29
3 Wiener Sport-Club 9 13.49 -4.49
4 Wiener AC 26 27.15 -1.15
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 14 14.88 -0.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 SC Rudolfshugel 4 May 28 – Jun 25 1 in 42
2 Rapid Wien 8 Nov 14 – May 14 1 in 8
3 Floridsdorfer 4 Oct 24 – Dec 5 1 in 7
4 Wacker Wien 3 Apr 30 – May 28 1 in 5
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 Sep 12 – Oct 10 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 1. Simmeringer SC 15 Oct 24 – Jun 25 1 in 59
2 Wiener AF 2 May 28 – Jun 18 1 in 39
3 Hertha Wien 8 Aug 29 – Dec 5 1 in 26
4 Wiener Sport-Club 6 Nov 14 – Mar 12 1 in 8
5 Wiener AC 2 Jun 25 – Jul 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wacker Wien 6 Mar 19 – May 28 1 in 147
2 Floridsdorfer 8 Aug 29 – Dec 5 1 in 23
3 SC Rudolfshugel 5 Oct 24 – Dec 5 1 in 22
4 Wiener AF 12 Oct 24 – May 21 1 in 7
5 Rapid Wien 8 Nov 14 – May 14 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 3 May 28 – Jul 16 1 in 29
2 Hertha Wien 16 Aug 29 – Jun 11 1 in 17
3 Wacker Wien 8 Nov 14 – Apr 16 1 in 13
4 Wiener AF 2 May 28 – Jun 18 1 in 10
5 Wiener Sport-Club 10 Nov 14 – May 14 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1670 31 +104 8 7.2 +0.8
Floridsdorfer 1493 29 +65 8 7.5 +0.5
Wiener AF 1518 26 +59 6 5.8 +0.2
Wiener AC 1375 26 -143 5 7.2 -2.2
SC Rudolfshugel 1282 22 +111 8 5.6 +2.4
Wacker Wien 1236 18 +151 8 5.9 +2.1
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 983 14 -79 3 3.0 +0.0
Wiener Sport-Club 971 9 +63 4 3.4 +0.6
Hertha Wien 757 3 -61 2 2.9 -0.9
1. Simmeringer SC 635 2 -111 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FLO HW RW SR WW WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
0-0-2
0.33
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
0.30
0-0-2
0.72
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
0.38
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
2.09
Floridsdorfer
2-0-0
5.47
 —
2-0-0
5.36
0-0-2
2.41
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
4.57
1-0-1
2.25
2-0-0
2.48
2-0-0
4.23
2-0-0
4.86
Hertha Wien
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-2
0.43
 —
0-0-2
0.85
0-0-2
1.86
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
0.33
0-0-2
0.51
0-0-2
1.21
0-0-2
1.70
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
5.50
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
4.94
 —
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
4.28
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
3.68
2-0-0
4.86
2-0-0
4.73
SC Rudolfshugel
2-0-0
5.07
0-0-2
2.47
2-0-0
3.92
0-1-1
1.11
 —
1-0-1
4.28
0-0-2
1.04
1-1-0
1.33
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
3.86
Wacker Wien
2-0-0
4.37
0-1-1
1.22
1-1-0
4.67
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
1.51
 —
0-1-1
0.59
0-1-1
0.98
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.30
Wiener AC
2-0-0
4.86
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
5.46
1-0-1
2.33
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
5.20
 —
0-0-2
3.90
1-1-0
4.40
2-0-0
5.35
Wiener AF
2-0-0
5.41
0-0-2
3.31
2-0-0
5.29
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
4.46
1-1-0
4.81
2-0-0
1.89
 —
2-0-0
4.53
2-0-0
5.10
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
2-0-0
4.16
0-0-2
1.55
2-0-0
4.58
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
1.39
0-0-2
1.26
 —
2-0-0
3.01
Wiener Sport-Club
2-0-0
3.70
0-0-2
0.93
2-0-0
4.08
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
3.49
0-0-2
0.44
0-0-2
0.69
0-0-2
2.78
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +3.9
Allowed 0.84 -4.4
Differential 0.96 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%4.44%2.78%3.33%1.67%6.11%20.56%
14.44%4.44%7.22%2.22%2.78%3.89%25.00%
22.78%7.22%—1.11%2.22%1.67%15.00%
33.33%2.22%1.11%3.33%1.67%3.33%15.00%
41.67%2.78%2.22%1.67%—0.56%8.89%
5+6.11%3.89%1.67%3.33%0.56%—15.56%
Total20.56%25.00%15.00%15.00%8.89%15.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 2.39 +0.00
SD 2.26 2.26 3.58
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%——5.56%33.33%50.00%
1——5.56%—5.56%11.11%22.22%
25.56%—————5.56%
3————11.11%11.11%22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%5.56%—22.22%55.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 5.06 -4.06
SD 1.24 2.71 3.06
CV 1.24 0.54 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
2—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
316.67%5.56%———5.56%27.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total50.00%27.78%5.56%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.00 +1.83
SD 1.86 1.41 2.48
CV 0.65 1.41 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%16.67%61.11%
1——11.11%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
2———————
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%27.78%16.67%5.56%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 3.78 -3.11
SD 1.14 2.80 2.61
CV 1.71 0.74 —
Max 4 10 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——5.56%———5.56%
25.56%11.11%———5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—11.11%———16.67%
5+11.11%27.78%—5.56%——44.44%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.83 1.44 +3.39
SD 2.77 1.29 3.35
CV 0.57 0.90 —
Max 10 5 +9
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
15.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%33.33%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 2.17 +0.83
SD 2.43 1.47 2.90
CV 0.81 0.68 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
111.11%22.22%5.56%—11.11%5.56%55.56%
2————5.56%—5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.89 -0.33
SD 1.46 1.64 1.97
CV 0.94 0.87 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
2—11.11%——11.11%—22.22%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%5.56%16.67%——38.89%
Total22.22%33.33%5.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 1.94 +1.61
SD 2.43 1.86 3.27
CV 0.68 0.96 —
Max 8 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1——11.11%———11.11%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
5+22.22%—5.56%———27.78%
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.61 1.33 +2.28
SD 2.23 1.24 2.87
CV 0.62 0.93 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
25.56%16.67%———5.56%27.78%
35.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%5.56%16.67%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.56 -1.28
SD 1.13 2.50 2.89
CV 0.88 0.98 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%22.22%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
3———————
45.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%22.22%16.67%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.72 -1.17
SD 1.29 2.08 2.57
CV 0.83 0.76 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1670 31 26.97 +4.03 93.3% 15 22 25 27 29 32 35
Wiener AF 1518 26 25.14 +0.86 64.2% 16 20 23 25 27 30 35
Floridsdorfer 1493 29 23.87 +5.13 95.9% 14 18 22 24 26 29 35
Wiener AC 1375 26 27.15 -1.15 38.8% 18 22 25 27 29 32 35
SC Rudolfshugel 1282 22 18.56 +3.44 88.0% 6 13 16 19 21 24 28
Wacker Wien 1236 18 14.24 +3.76 90.4% 5 9 12 14 16 19 27
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 983 14 14.88 -0.88 46.6% 4 9 13 15 17 21 26
Wiener Sport-Club 971 9 13.49 -4.49 10.8% 3 8 11 13 16 19 24
Hertha Wien 757 3 8.40 -5.40 2.7% 1 4 6 8 10 13 18
1. Simmeringer SC 635 2 7.29 -5.29 3.8% 0 3 5 7 9 12 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
Slight Edge
52.22%10.00%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
127 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
050.54400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.54 * Some Luck: 2.54 to 3.81 * Lucky: 3.81 to 5.08 * Wild Swing: 5.08 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.73 * Close: 0.73 to 1.09 * Off: 1.09 to 1.46 * Way Off: 1.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.86 points
Lucky
03.188
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.912
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.90%
Floridsdorfer
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.70%
Hertha Wien
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.32
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.50
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
94%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
39%
Some Drama
0%32%100%
Blowouts
Expected
42%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.35
Highly Predictable
00.422
Matchup Imbalance
0.58
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.58
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.78
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
9%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.51
Very Underconfident
0.334211.001.66579
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien41.40%28.00%18.60%9.50%2.30%0.10%0.10%———
Floridsdorfer9.30%14.60%25.70%38.20%9.40%2.00%0.70%0.10%——
Wiener AF16.50%24.80%29.50%21.50%6.10%1.20%0.30%0.10%——
Wiener AC32.60%31.40%21.30%11.70%2.80%0.20%————
SC Rudolfshugel0.10%1.20%4.00%13.60%48.30%20.10%9.00%2.90%0.70%0.10%
Wacker Wien0.10%—0.10%1.90%10.50%29.70%26.60%23.30%6.60%1.20%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein——0.80%2.60%13.40%26.10%26.30%23.00%6.20%1.60%
Wiener Sport-Club———1.00%6.80%18.90%30.10%30.60%9.70%2.90%
Hertha Wien————0.20%1.20%5.30%11.20%48.80%33.30%
1. Simmeringer SC————0.20%0.50%1.60%8.80%28.00%60.90%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
1. Simmeringer SC 100%
Floridsdorfer 100%
Hertha Wien 100%
Rapid Wien 100%
SC Rudolfshugel 100%
Wacker Wien 100%
Wiener AC 100%
Wiener AF 100%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 100%
Wiener Sport-Club 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1915-08-29 Wiener AC L 0-139.1 1194 1332 36.05% 10.60% 53.35%-0.69 -33.7 0
1915-08-29 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 1-039.1 1332 1194 53.35% 10.60% 36.05%+0.69 +33.7 2
1915-08-29 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-143.0 1135 1170 50.57% 10.61% 38.82%+0.13 -45.8 0
1915-08-29 @ Hertha Wien W 1-043.0 1170 1135 38.82% 10.61% 50.57%-0.13 +45.8 2
1915-08-29 Rapid Wien L 1-538.6 1141 1249 40.16% 10.61% 49.23%-0.45 -110.8 0
1915-08-29 @ Wacker Wien W 5-138.6 1249 1141 49.23% 10.61% 40.16%+0.45 +110.8 2
1915-08-29 Floridsdorfer L 1-250.5 1276 1192 65.22% 10.60% 24.19%+1.06 -55.2 0
1915-08-29 @ Wiener AF W 2-150.5 1192 1276 24.19% 10.60% 65.22%-1.06 +55.2 2
1915-08-29 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-031.0 1144 1088 62.13% 10.60% 27.27%+0.84 +93.3 2
1915-08-29 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-431.0 1088 1144 27.27% 10.60% 62.13%-0.84 -93.3 0
1915-09-12 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-135.6 1160 994 72.87% 10.58% 16.55%+1.71 +15.4 2
1915-09-12 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-235.6 994 1160 16.55% 10.58% 72.87%-1.71 -15.4 0
1915-09-12 SC Rudolfshugel W 3-033.6 1248 1216 59.26% 10.60% 30.14%+0.65 +78.4 4
1915-09-12 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-333.6 1216 1248 30.14% 10.60% 59.26%-0.65 -78.4 2
1915-09-12 Rapid Wien L 3-1032.8 1090 1360 20.73% 10.58% 68.70%-1.73 -73.7 0
1915-09-12 @ Hertha Wien W 10-332.8 1360 1090 68.70% 10.58% 20.73%+1.73 +73.7 4
1915-09-12 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-046.4 1030 1237 27.35% 10.59% 62.05%-1.24 +55.7 2
1915-09-12 @ Wacker Wien L 0-146.4 1237 1030 62.05% 10.59% 27.35%+1.24 -55.7 2
1915-09-12 Wiener AC W 4-250.0 1221 1365 35.16% 10.60% 54.24%-0.74 +71.4 2
1915-09-12 @ Wiener AF L 2-450.0 1365 1221 54.24% 10.60% 35.16%+0.74 -71.4 2
1915-09-26 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-136.5 1326 1182 71.07% 10.58% 18.35%+1.54 +16.9 6
1915-09-26 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-236.5 1182 1326 18.35% 10.58% 71.07%-1.54 -17.0 2
1915-09-26 Wiener AF W 2-138.4 1433 1293 70.75% 10.58% 18.66%+1.51 +17.2 6
1915-09-26 @ Rapid Wien L 1-238.4 1293 1433 18.66% 10.58% 70.75%-1.51 -17.2 2
1915-10-10 Hertha Wien W 2-037.7 979 1016 50.21% 10.61% 39.19%+0.11 +68.6 2
1915-10-10 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-237.7 1016 979 39.19% 10.61% 50.21%-0.11 -68.5 0
1915-10-10 Floridsdorfer D 1-155.5 1086 1343 21.98% 10.58% 67.44%-1.63 +10.1 3
1915-10-10 @ Wacker Wien D 1-155.5 1343 1086 67.44% 10.58% 21.98%+1.63 -10.1 7
1915-10-10 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-246.8 1165 1176 53.73% 10.61% 35.67%+0.31 -45.7 2
1915-10-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-146.8 1176 1165 35.67% 10.61% 53.73%-0.31 +45.7 4
1915-10-24 Wiener AC L 0-628.2 1048 1294 23.05% 10.58% 66.36%-1.55 -116.8 2
1915-10-24 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-028.2 1294 1048 66.36% 10.58% 23.05%+1.55 +116.8 4
1915-10-24 Floridsdorfer L 0-140.3 1221 1333 39.66% 10.61% 49.74%-0.48 -36.8 4
1915-10-24 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 1-040.3 1333 1221 49.74% 10.61% 39.66%+0.48 +36.8 9
1915-10-24 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-240.1 947 1119 31.65% 10.60% 57.75%-0.96 -28.2 0
1915-10-24 @ Hertha Wien W 2-140.1 1119 947 57.75% 10.60% 31.65%+0.96 +28.2 4
1915-10-24 Rapid Wien D 3-363.0 1137 1450 16.89% 10.56% 72.55%-2.08 +7.8 3
1915-10-24 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 3-363.0 1450 1137 72.55% 10.56% 16.89%+2.08 -7.8 7
1915-10-24 Wacker Wien W 4-132.6 1275 1096 73.93% 10.57% 15.50%+1.82 +35.4 4
1915-10-24 @ Wiener AF L 1-432.6 1096 1275 15.50% 10.57% 73.93%-1.82 -35.4 3
1915-10-31 Wiener AF D 3-362.5 1145 1311 32.38% 10.60% 57.02%-0.91 +3.3 4
1915-10-31 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 3-362.5 1311 1145 57.02% 10.60% 32.38%+0.91 -3.3 5
1915-10-31 Hertha Wien W 2-029.0 1185 919 79.43% 10.55% 10.03%+2.50 +19.0 6
1915-10-31 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-229.0 919 1185 10.03% 10.55% 79.43%-2.50 -19.0 0
1915-10-31 Rapid Wien W 5-247.8 1411 1443 50.91% 10.61% 38.48%+0.15 +71.5 6
1915-10-31 @ Wiener AC L 2-547.8 1443 1411 38.48% 10.61% 50.91%-0.15 -71.5 7
1915-11-07 Wacker Wien L 3-448.7 931 1061 37.12% 10.60% 52.27%-0.63 -30.2 2
1915-11-07 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-348.7 1061 931 52.27% 10.60% 37.12%+0.63 +30.2 5
1915-11-14 Hertha Wien W 1-028.8 1369 900 86.23% 10.44% 3.33%+4.11 +3.4 11
1915-11-14 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-128.8 900 1369 3.33% 10.44% 86.23%-4.11 -3.4 0
1915-11-14 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-337.1 1148 901 78.45% 10.55% 10.99%+2.36 +20.4 6
1915-11-14 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 3-637.1 901 1148 10.99% 10.55% 78.45%-2.36 -20.4 2
1915-11-14 Wacker Wien W 4-130.1 1482 1091 84.41% 10.49% 5.11%+3.49 +12.0 8
1915-11-14 @ Wiener AC L 1-430.1 1091 1482 5.11% 10.49% 84.41%-3.49 -12.0 5
1915-11-14 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-033.1 1307 1204 67.27% 10.59% 22.14%+1.22 +40.5 7
1915-11-14 @ Wiener AF L 0-233.1 1204 1307 22.14% 10.59% 67.27%-1.22 -40.5 6
1915-11-14 Rapid Wien L 2-441.0 1147 1371 25.44% 10.59% 63.97%-1.37 -35.7 4
1915-11-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 4-241.0 1371 1147 63.97% 10.59% 25.44%+1.37 +35.7 9
1915-11-21 Wiener AC W 1-048.5 1373 1494 38.25% 10.60% 51.15%-0.56 +46.3 13
1915-11-21 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-148.5 1494 1373 51.15% 10.60% 38.25%+0.56 -46.3 8
1915-11-21 Wiener AF L 0-623.8 897 1348 8.39% 10.51% 81.10%-3.16 -44.3 0
1915-11-21 @ Hertha Wien W 6-023.8 1348 897 81.10% 10.51% 8.39%+3.16 +44.3 9
1915-11-21 1. Simmeringer SC W 8-022.0 1407 880 87.18% 10.40% 2.41%+4.56 +17.0 11
1915-11-21 @ Rapid Wien L 0-822.0 880 1407 2.41% 10.40% 87.18%-4.56 -17.0 2
1915-11-21 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-155.3 1079 1163 43.48% 10.61% 45.92%-0.27 +0.5 6
1915-11-21 @ Wacker Wien D 1-155.3 1163 1079 45.92% 10.61% 43.48%+0.27 -0.5 7
1915-11-21 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-343.5 1111 1169 47.36% 10.61% 42.04%-0.05 -70.4 4
1915-11-21 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-143.5 1169 1111 42.04% 10.61% 47.36%+0.05 +70.4 8
1915-12-05 Rapid Wien L 0-430.1 1163 1424 21.56% 10.58% 67.86%-1.66 -74.9 7
1915-12-05 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-030.1 1424 1163 67.86% 10.58% 21.56%+1.66 +74.9 13
1915-12-05 Hertha Wien W 8-124.2 1448 853 88.01% 10.35% 1.64%+5.10 +8.4 10
1915-12-05 @ Wiener AC L 1-824.2 853 1448 1.64% 10.35% 88.01%-5.10 -8.4 0
1915-12-05 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-021.7 1419 863 87.57% 10.38% 2.05%+4.79 +12.7 15
1915-12-05 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-721.7 863 1419 2.05% 10.38% 87.57%-4.79 -12.7 2
1915-12-05 Wacker Wien W 2-135.8 1239 1079 72.37% 10.58% 17.05%+1.66 +15.8 10
1915-12-05 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-235.8 1079 1239 17.05% 10.58% 72.37%-1.66 -15.8 6
1915-12-05 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-131.4 1392 1041 83.13% 10.51% 6.36%+3.17 +10.5 11
1915-12-05 @ Wiener AF L 1-331.4 1041 1392 6.36% 10.51% 83.13%-3.17 -10.5 4
1915-12-08 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-132.2 1456 1030 85.31% 10.47% 4.23%+3.76 +4.1 12
1915-12-08 @ Wiener AC L 1-232.2 1030 1456 4.23% 10.47% 85.31%-3.76 -4.1 4
1915-12-12 SC Rudolfshugel W 5-342.1 1461 1255 75.83% 10.57% 13.60%+2.02 +18.7 14
1915-12-12 @ Wiener AC L 3-542.1 1255 1461 13.60% 10.57% 75.83%-2.02 -18.6 10
1915-12-12 Wiener AF L 0-923.0 850 1403 4.86% 10.45% 84.68%-3.96 -38.2 2
1915-12-12 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 9-023.0 1403 850 84.68% 10.45% 4.86%+3.96 +38.2 13
1915-12-12 Wacker Wien D 0-052.9 844 1064 25.95% 10.59% 63.46%-1.33 +9.2 1
1915-12-12 @ Hertha Wien D 0-052.9 1064 844 63.46% 10.59% 25.95%+1.33 -9.2 7
1915-12-12 Floridsdorfer W 2-145.8 1499 1432 63.36% 10.60% 26.04%+0.93 +23.6 15
1915-12-12 @ Rapid Wien L 1-245.8 1432 1499 26.04% 10.60% 63.36%-0.93 -23.6 15
1915-12-19 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-738.3 1088 1236 34.61% 10.60% 54.78%-0.77 -99.2 7
1915-12-19 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 7-238.3 1236 1088 54.78% 10.60% 34.61%+0.77 +99.2 12
1916-03-05 Wiener Sport-Club W 6-126.6 1522 1026 86.71% 10.43% 2.87%+4.32 +10.7 17
1916-03-05 @ Rapid Wien L 1-626.6 1026 1522 2.87% 10.43% 86.71%-4.32 -10.7 4
1916-03-05 Floridsdorfer L 1-246.6 1335 1408 45.12% 10.61% 44.28%-0.18 -38.9 12
1916-03-05 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 2-146.6 1408 1335 44.28% 10.61% 45.12%+0.18 +38.9 17
1916-03-05 1. Simmeringer SC W 8-329.8 1479 812 88.61% 10.30% 1.09%+5.67 +3.1 16
1916-03-05 @ Wiener AC L 3-829.8 812 1479 1.09% 10.30% 88.61%-5.67 -3.1 2
1916-03-12 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-136.9 809 988 30.68% 10.60% 58.72%-1.02 -29.1 2
1916-03-12 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 1-036.9 988 809 58.72% 10.60% 30.68%+1.02 +29.1 9
1916-03-12 Wacker Wien W 4-234.6 1533 1054 86.41% 10.44% 3.15%+4.18 +4.7 19
1916-03-12 @ Rapid Wien L 2-434.6 1054 1533 3.15% 10.44% 86.41%-4.18 -4.7 7
1916-03-12 Floridsdorfer W 5-352.3 1482 1447 59.63% 10.60% 29.76%+0.68 +39.0 18
1916-03-12 @ Wiener AC L 3-552.3 1447 1482 29.76% 10.60% 59.63%-0.68 -39.0 17
1916-03-12 Wiener AF L 2-632.7 1016 1441 9.61% 10.52% 79.86%-2.96 -24.4 4
1916-03-12 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 6-232.7 1441 1016 79.86% 10.52% 9.61%+2.96 +24.4 15
1916-03-19 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-825.4 780 1297 5.91% 10.47% 83.61%-3.68 -29.9 2
1916-03-19 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 8-125.4 1297 780 83.61% 10.47% 5.91%+3.68 +30.0 14
1916-03-19 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 3-131.0 1408 1018 84.38% 10.49% 5.13%+3.48 +8.5 19
1916-03-19 @ Floridsdorfer L 1-331.0 1018 1408 5.13% 10.49% 84.38%-3.48 -8.5 9
1916-03-19 Wiener AC L 0-622.1 853 1521 2.56% 10.38% 87.06%-4.88 -13.7 1
1916-03-19 @ Hertha Wien W 6-022.1 1521 853 87.06% 10.38% 2.56%+4.88 +13.7 20
1916-03-19 Wacker Wien D 1-155.3 991 1050 47.20% 10.61% 42.19%-0.06 -1.1 5
1916-03-19 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-155.3 1050 991 42.19% 10.61% 47.20%+0.06 +1.1 8
1916-04-09 Wiener AF D 0-053.4 1051 1465 10.15% 10.53% 79.32%-2.88 +17.7 9
1916-04-09 @ Wacker Wien D 0-053.4 1465 1051 79.32% 10.53% 10.15%+2.88 -17.8 16
1916-04-09 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-033.8 1009 990 57.61% 10.60% 31.78%+0.55 +82.3 11
1916-04-09 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-333.8 990 1009 31.78% 10.60% 57.61%-0.55 -82.3 5
1916-04-16 SC Rudolfshugel W 2-035.2 1538 1326 76.21% 10.57% 13.22%+2.07 +24.8 21
1916-04-16 @ Rapid Wien L 0-235.2 1326 1538 13.22% 10.57% 76.21%-2.07 -24.8 14
1916-04-16 Wiener AC D 1-156.3 1068 1535 7.72% 10.50% 81.78%-3.29 +17.1 10
1916-04-16 @ Wacker Wien D 1-156.3 1535 1068 81.78% 10.50% 7.72%+3.29 -17.1 21
1916-04-16 Hertha Wien W 5-022.2 1448 840 88.13% 10.34% 1.53%+5.20 +6.9 18
1916-04-16 @ Wiener AF L 0-522.2 840 1448 1.53% 10.34% 88.13%-5.20 -6.9 1
1916-04-30 Floridsdorfer L 0-325.5 833 1417 4.08% 10.43% 85.48%-4.21 -11.4 1
1916-04-30 @ Hertha Wien W 3-025.5 1417 833 85.48% 10.43% 4.08%+4.21 +11.4 21
1916-04-30 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-146.9 1085 1302 26.31% 10.59% 63.10%-1.31 +130.7 12
1916-04-30 @ Wacker Wien L 1-446.9 1302 1085 63.10% 10.59% 26.31%+1.31 -130.7 14
1916-04-30 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-021.4 1454 750 88.85% 10.26% 0.88%+5.96 +4.8 20
1916-04-30 @ Wiener AF L 0-621.4 750 1454 0.88% 10.26% 88.85%-5.96 -4.8 2
1916-04-30 Wiener AC L 1-231.8 908 1518 3.53% 10.42% 86.05%-4.42 -3.4 5
1916-04-30 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-131.8 1518 908 86.05% 10.42% 3.53%+4.42 +3.4 23
1916-05-14 Wiener AF L 1-432.3 1091 1459 12.90% 10.55% 76.56%-2.51 -29.6 11
1916-05-14 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-132.3 1459 1091 76.56% 10.55% 12.90%+2.51 +29.7 22
1916-05-14 Hertha Wien W 8-124.0 1563 821 89.05% 10.23% 0.72%+6.25 +3.7 23
1916-05-14 @ Rapid Wien L 1-824.0 821 1563 0.72% 10.23% 89.05%-6.25 -3.7 1
1916-05-14 Wiener AC L 0-330.3 1171 1521 14.08% 10.55% 75.37%-2.37 -38.3 14
1916-05-14 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 3-030.3 1521 1171 75.37% 10.55% 14.08%+2.37 +38.2 25
1916-05-14 1. Simmeringer SC W 1-028.7 1216 745 86.26% 10.44% 3.30%+4.12 +3.4 14
1916-05-14 @ Wacker Wien L 0-128.7 745 1216 3.30% 10.44% 86.26%-4.12 -3.4 2
1916-05-14 Floridsdorfer L 0-623.0 905 1428 5.68% 10.47% 83.84%-3.74 -30.3 5
1916-05-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 6-023.0 1428 905 83.84% 10.47% 5.68%+3.74 +30.3 23
1916-05-21 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-237.5 818 1062 23.30% 10.58% 66.11%-1.53 -21.2 1
1916-05-21 @ Hertha Wien W 2-137.5 1062 818 66.11% 10.58% 23.30%+1.53 +21.2 13
1916-05-21 Rapid Wien W 2-156.1 1489 1566 44.47% 10.61% 44.92%-0.21 +38.8 24
1916-05-21 @ Wiener AF L 1-256.1 1566 1489 44.92% 10.61% 44.47%+0.21 -38.8 23
1916-05-21 Floridsdorfer L 0-621.7 742 1458 1.95% 10.34% 87.71%-5.26 -10.5 2
1916-05-21 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-021.7 1458 742 87.71% 10.34% 1.95%+5.26 +10.5 25
1916-05-28 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-438.4 732 874 35.38% 10.60% 54.01%-0.73 -76.5 2
1916-05-28 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-138.4 874 732 54.01% 10.60% 35.38%+0.73 +76.5 7
1916-05-28 Rapid Wien L 2-358.1 1469 1528 47.15% 10.61% 42.24%-0.06 -38.4 25
1916-05-28 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-258.1 1528 1469 42.24% 10.61% 47.15%+0.06 +38.4 25
1916-05-28 Hertha Wien W 3-130.5 1220 796 85.24% 10.47% 4.29%+3.74 +7.2 16
1916-05-28 @ Wacker Wien L 1-330.5 796 1220 4.29% 10.47% 85.24%-3.74 -7.2 1
1916-05-28 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 3-363.5 1560 1083 86.37% 10.44% 3.19%+4.17 -12.1 26
1916-05-28 @ Wiener AC D 3-363.5 1083 1560 3.19% 10.44% 86.37%-4.17 +12.1 14
1916-05-28 SC Rudolfshugel L 2-360.9 1528 1133 84.50% 10.49% 5.01%+3.52 -68.6 24
1916-05-28 @ Wiener AF W 3-260.9 1133 1528 5.01% 10.49% 84.50%-3.52 +68.6 16
1916-06-11 Hertha Wien W 4-024.1 1201 789 84.96% 10.48% 4.56%+3.65 +16.7 18
1916-06-11 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-424.1 789 1201 4.56% 10.48% 84.96%-3.65 -16.6 1
1916-06-18 Wiener AF W 4-355.0 1430 1459 51.36% 10.61% 38.03%+0.17 +30.9 27
1916-06-18 @ Floridsdorfer L 3-455.0 1459 1430 38.03% 10.61% 51.36%-0.17 -30.9 24
1916-06-18 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-343.8 773 655 68.62% 10.59% 20.79%+1.33 +17.7 3
1916-06-18 @ Hertha Wien L 3-443.8 655 773 20.79% 10.59% 68.62%-1.33 -17.7 2
1916-06-18 Wiener Sport-Club W 6-441.1 1218 951 79.52% 10.55% 9.93%+2.51 +13.3 20
1916-06-18 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 4-641.1 951 1218 9.93% 10.55% 79.52%-2.51 -13.3 7
1916-06-25 Rapid Wien L 1-724.4 637 1566 0.59% 10.15% 89.27%-6.94 -2.6 2
1916-06-25 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-124.4 1566 637 89.27% 10.15% 0.59%+6.94 +2.6 27
1916-06-25 Wacker Wien W 3-029.5 1461 1227 77.69% 10.56% 11.75%+2.25 +32.2 29
1916-06-25 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-329.5 1227 1461 11.75% 10.56% 77.69%-2.25 -32.2 16
1916-06-25 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 3-030.1 1231 1095 70.37% 10.59% 19.05%+1.48 +51.0 22
1916-06-25 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-330.1 1095 1231 19.05% 10.59% 70.37%-1.48 -51.0 14
1916-06-25 Wiener AF L 2-462.6 1548 1428 68.80% 10.59% 20.61%+1.34 -90.2 26
1916-06-25 @ Wiener AC W 4-262.6 1428 1548 20.61% 10.59% 68.80%-1.34 +90.2 26
1916-06-25 Hertha Wien W 2-031.4 938 790 71.32% 10.58% 18.09%+1.56 +33.5 9
1916-06-25 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-231.4 790 938 18.09% 10.58% 71.32%-1.56 -33.5 3
1916-07-02 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 9-023.2 1569 1044 87.15% 10.41% 2.44%+4.54 +19.3 29
1916-07-02 @ Rapid Wien L 0-923.2 1044 1569 2.44% 10.41% 87.15%-4.54 -19.3 14
1916-07-09 Wacker Wien L 3-545.5 1025 1195 31.84% 10.60% 57.56%-0.94 -41.5 14
1916-07-09 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-345.5 1195 1025 57.56% 10.60% 31.84%+0.94 +41.5 18
1916-07-16 Wiener AC W 7-141.8 1588 1457 69.83% 10.59% 19.58%+1.43 +82.6 31
1916-07-16 @ Rapid Wien L 1-741.8 1457 1588 19.58% 10.59% 69.83%-1.43 -82.6 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1916-05-28 5.01% SC Rudolfshugel 1133 3 @ Wiener AF 1528 2
2 1916-06-25 20.61% Wiener AF 1428 4 @ Wiener AC 1548 2
3 1915-08-29 24.19% Floridsdorfer 1192 2 @ Wiener AF 1276 1
4 1916-04-30 26.31% @ Wacker Wien 1085 4 SC Rudolfshugel 1302 1
5 1915-09-12 27.35% @ Wacker Wien 1030 1 Wiener Sport-Club 1237 0
6 1915-09-12 35.16% @ Wiener AF 1221 4 Wiener AC 1365 2
7 1915-10-10 35.67% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1176 2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1165 1
8 1915-11-21 38.25% @ Floridsdorfer 1373 1 Wiener AC 1494 0
9 1915-08-29 38.82% SC Rudolfshugel 1170 1 @ Hertha Wien 1135 0
10 1915-11-21 42.04% SC Rudolfshugel 1169 3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1111 1
11 1916-05-28 42.24% Rapid Wien 1528 3 @ Floridsdorfer 1469 2
12 1916-03-05 44.28% Floridsdorfer 1408 2 @ SC Rudolfshugel 1335 1
13 1916-05-21 44.47% @ Wiener AF 1489 2 Rapid Wien 1566 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1916-04-30 130.74 @ Wacker Wien 4 1085 26.31% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1302 63.10% 10.59%
2 1915-10-24 116.80 Wiener AC 6 1294 66.36% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1048 23.05% 10.58%
3 1915-08-29 110.83 Rapid Wien 5 1249 49.23% @ Wacker Wien 1 1141 40.16% 10.61%
4 1915-12-19 99.23 SC Rudolfshugel 7 1236 54.78% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1088 34.61% 10.60%
5 1915-08-29 93.33 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1144 62.13% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1088 27.27% 10.60%
6 1916-06-25 90.22 Wiener AF 4 1428 20.61% @ Wiener AC 2 1548 68.80% 10.59%
7 1916-07-16 82.65 @ Rapid Wien 7 1588 69.83% Wiener AC 1 1457 19.58% 10.59%
8 1916-04-09 82.28 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1009 57.61% Wiener Sport-Club 0 990 31.78% 10.60%
9 1915-09-12 78.37 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1248 59.26% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1216 30.14% 10.60%
10 1916-05-28 76.53 Wiener Sport-Club 4 874 54.01% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 732 35.38% 10.60%
11 1915-12-05 74.91 Rapid Wien 4 1424 67.86% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1163 21.56% 10.58%
12 1915-09-12 73.68 Rapid Wien 10 1360 68.70% @ Hertha Wien 3 1090 20.73% 10.58%
13 1915-10-31 71.54 @ Wiener AC 5 1411 50.91% Rapid Wien 2 1443 38.48% 10.61%
14 1915-09-12 71.41 @ Wiener AF 4 1221 35.16% Wiener AC 2 1365 54.24% 10.60%
15 1915-11-21 70.40 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1169 42.04% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1111 47.36% 10.61%
16 1916-05-28 68.63 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1133 5.01% @ Wiener AF 2 1528 84.50% 10.49%
17 1915-10-10 68.55 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 979 50.21% Hertha Wien 0 1016 39.19% 10.61%
18 1915-09-12 55.69 @ Wacker Wien 1 1030 27.35% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1237 62.05% 10.59%
19 1915-08-29 55.17 Floridsdorfer 2 1192 24.19% @ Wiener AF 1 1276 65.22% 10.60%
20 1916-06-25 51.04 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1231 70.37% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1095 19.05% 10.59%
21 1915-11-21 46.27 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1373 38.25% Wiener AC 0 1494 51.15% 10.60%
22 1915-08-29 45.79 SC Rudolfshugel 1 1170 38.82% @ Hertha Wien 0 1135 50.57% 10.61%
23 1915-10-10 45.69 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1176 35.67% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1165 53.73% 10.61%
24 1915-11-21 44.33 Wiener AF 6 1348 81.10% @ Hertha Wien 0 897 8.39% 10.51%
25 1916-07-09 41.54 Wacker Wien 5 1195 57.56% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1025 31.84% 10.60%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1916-05-28 63.5 @ Wiener AC 3 1560 86.37% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1083 3.19% 10.44%
2 1915-10-24 63.0 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1137 16.89% Rapid Wien 3 1450 72.55% 10.56%
3 1916-06-25 62.6 Wiener AF 4 1428 20.61% @ Wiener AC 2 1548 68.80% 10.59%
4 1915-10-31 62.5 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1145 32.38% Wiener AF 3 1311 57.02% 10.60%
5 1916-05-28 60.9 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1133 5.01% @ Wiener AF 2 1528 84.50% 10.49%
6 1916-05-28 58.1 Rapid Wien 3 1528 42.24% @ Floridsdorfer 2 1469 47.15% 10.61%
7 1916-04-16 56.3 @ Wacker Wien 1 1068 7.72% Wiener AC 1 1535 81.78% 10.50%
8 1916-05-21 56.1 @ Wiener AF 2 1489 44.47% Rapid Wien 1 1566 44.92% 10.61%
9 1915-10-10 55.5 @ Wacker Wien 1 1086 21.98% Floridsdorfer 1 1343 67.44% 10.58%
10 1915-11-21 55.3 @ Wacker Wien 1 1079 43.48% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 1163 45.92% 10.61%
11 1916-03-19 55.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 991 47.20% Wacker Wien 1 1050 42.19% 10.61%
12 1916-06-18 55.0 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1430 51.36% Wiener AF 3 1459 38.03% 10.61%
13 1916-04-09 53.4 @ Wacker Wien 0 1051 10.15% Wiener AF 0 1465 79.32% 10.53%
14 1915-12-12 52.9 @ Hertha Wien 0 844 25.95% Wacker Wien 0 1064 63.46% 10.59%
15 1916-03-12 52.3 @ Wiener AC 5 1482 59.63% Floridsdorfer 3 1447 29.76% 10.60%
16 1915-08-29 50.5 Floridsdorfer 2 1192 24.19% @ Wiener AF 1 1276 65.22% 10.60%
17 1915-09-12 50.0 @ Wiener AF 4 1221 35.16% Wiener AC 2 1365 54.24% 10.60%
18 1915-11-07 48.7 Wacker Wien 4 1061 52.27% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 931 37.12% 10.60%
19 1915-11-21 48.5 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1373 38.25% Wiener AC 0 1494 51.15% 10.60%
20 1915-10-31 47.8 @ Wiener AC 5 1411 50.91% Rapid Wien 2 1443 38.48% 10.61%
21 1916-04-30 46.9 @ Wacker Wien 4 1085 26.31% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1302 63.10% 10.59%
22 1915-10-10 46.8 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1176 35.67% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1165 53.73% 10.61%
23 1916-03-05 46.6 Floridsdorfer 2 1408 44.28% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1335 45.12% 10.61%
24 1915-09-12 46.4 @ Wacker Wien 1 1030 27.35% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1237 62.05% 10.59%
25 1915-12-12 45.8 @ Rapid Wien 2 1499 63.36% Floridsdorfer 1 1432 26.04% 10.60%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1916-04-30 21.4 @ Wiener AF 6 1454 88.85% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 750 0.88% 10.26%
2 1915-12-05 21.7 @ Floridsdorfer 7 1419 87.57% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 863 2.05% 10.38%
3 1916-05-21 21.7 Floridsdorfer 6 1458 87.71% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 742 1.95% 10.34%
4 1915-11-21 22.0 @ Rapid Wien 8 1407 87.18% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 880 2.41% 10.40%
5 1916-03-19 22.1 Wiener AC 6 1521 87.06% @ Hertha Wien 0 853 2.56% 10.38%
6 1916-04-16 22.2 @ Wiener AF 5 1448 88.13% Hertha Wien 0 840 1.53% 10.34%
7 1915-12-12 23.0 Wiener AF 9 1403 84.68% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 850 4.86% 10.45%
8 1916-05-14 23.0 Floridsdorfer 6 1428 83.84% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 905 5.68% 10.47%
9 1916-07-02 23.2 @ Rapid Wien 9 1569 87.15% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1044 2.44% 10.41%
10 1915-11-21 23.8 Wiener AF 6 1348 81.10% @ Hertha Wien 0 897 8.39% 10.51%
11 1916-05-14 24.0 @ Rapid Wien 8 1563 89.05% Hertha Wien 1 821 0.72% 10.23%
12 1916-06-11 24.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 4 1201 84.96% Hertha Wien 0 789 4.56% 10.48%
13 1915-12-05 24.2 @ Wiener AC 8 1448 88.01% Hertha Wien 1 853 1.64% 10.35%
14 1916-06-25 24.4 Rapid Wien 7 1566 89.27% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 637 0.59% 10.15%
15 1916-03-19 25.4 SC Rudolfshugel 8 1297 83.61% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 780 5.91% 10.47%
16 1916-04-30 25.5 Floridsdorfer 3 1417 85.48% @ Hertha Wien 0 833 4.08% 10.43%
17 1916-03-05 26.6 @ Rapid Wien 6 1522 86.71% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1026 2.87% 10.43%
18 1915-10-24 28.2 Wiener AC 6 1294 66.36% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1048 23.05% 10.58%
19 1916-05-14 28.7 @ Wacker Wien 1 1216 86.26% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 745 3.30% 10.44%
20 1915-11-14 28.8 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1369 86.23% Hertha Wien 0 900 3.33% 10.44%
21 1915-10-31 29.0 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1185 79.43% Hertha Wien 0 919 10.03% 10.55%
22 1916-06-25 29.5 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1461 77.69% Wacker Wien 0 1227 11.75% 10.56%
23 1916-03-05 29.8 @ Wiener AC 8 1479 88.61% 1. Simmeringer SC 3 812 1.09% 10.30%
24 1915-11-14 30.1 @ Wiener AC 4 1482 84.41% Wacker Wien 1 1091 5.11% 10.49%
25 1915-12-05 30.1 Rapid Wien 4 1424 67.86% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1163 21.56% 10.58%