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1968 AFL Season

70 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

1st Title

Runner-Up

Kansas City Chiefs

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1967

Biggest Overachiever

New York Jets

2.66 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.34 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

4.67 wins below expected

1 wins · 6.17 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Jets 11 3 0 .786 — 419 280 +139 8.34 +2.66
2 Houston Oilers 7 7 0 .500 4 303 248 +55 7.48 -0.48
3 Miami Dolphins 5 8 1 .393 5.5 276 355 -79 5.48 +0.02
4 Boston Patriots 4 10 0 .286 7 229 406 -177 6.46 -2.46
5 Buffalo Bills 1 12 1 .107 9.5 199 367 -168 6.17 -4.67
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Kansas City Chiefs Division 12 2 0 .857 — 371 170 +201 9.43 +2.57
2 Oakland Raiders Playoffs 12 2 0 .857 — 453 233 +220 9.71 +2.29
3 San Diego Chargers 9 5 0 .643 3 382 310 +72 8.20 +0.80
4 Denver Broncos 5 9 0 .357 7 255 404 -149 5.70 -0.70
5 Cincinnati Bengals 3 11 0 .214 9 215 329 -114 3.02 -0.02

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Oakland Raiders 41
Kansas City Chiefs 6

Dec 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Oakland Raiders West 1682 12 9.71 +2.29 96.93% 3 7 8 10 11 12 14
Kansas City Chiefs West 1672 12 9.43 +2.57 98.05% 3 6 8 9 10 12 14
New York Jets East 1613 11 8.34 +2.66 97.17% 2 5 7 8 9 11 14
San Diego Chargers West 1566 9 8.20 +0.80 79.24% 1 5 7 8 9 11 14
Houston Oilers East 1539 7 7.48 -0.48 53.58% 1 4 6 7 9 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1422 5 5.70 -0.70 49.27% 0 3 4 6 7 8 13
Miami Dolphins East 1413 5.5 5.48 +0.02 74.66% 0 3 4 5 7 8 12
Buffalo Bills East 1410 1.5 6.17 -4.67 1.85% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Boston Patriots East 1402 4 6.46 -2.46 15.75% 0 3 5 6 8 9 13
Cincinnati Bengals West 1282 3 3.02 -0.02 67.96% 0 1 2 3 4 5 10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Boston Patriots —
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
New York Jets
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Bengals Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
New York Jets
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Bengals Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals —
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
Denver Broncos
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
Denver Broncos
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 New York Jets 11 8.34 +2.66
2 Kansas City Chiefs 12 9.43 +2.57
3 Oakland Raiders 12 9.71 +2.29
4 San Diego Chargers 9 8.20 +0.80
5 Miami Dolphins 5.5 5.48 +0.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Buffalo Bills 1.5 6.17 -4.67
2 Boston Patriots 4 6.46 -2.46
3 Denver Broncos 5 5.70 -0.70
4 Houston Oilers 7 7.48 -0.48
5 Cincinnati Bengals 3 3.02 -0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cincinnati Bengals 2 Sep 15 – Sep 22 1 in 19
2 Oakland Raiders 8 Oct 27 – Dec 15 1 in 17
3 Kansas City Chiefs 6 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 13
4 New York Jets 4 Oct 20 – Nov 10 1 in 9
5 Denver Broncos 2 Oct 6 – Oct 13 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Buffalo Bills 8 Oct 20 – Dec 7 1 in 80
2 Boston Patriots 5 Oct 27 – Nov 24 1 in 19
3 Denver Broncos 3 Sep 15 – Sep 29 1 in 11
4 Houston Oilers 3 Sep 21 – Oct 6 1 in 10
5 Oakland Raiders 2 Oct 13 – Oct 20 1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team12345
New York Jets46.63%26.12%14.85%8.67%3.73%
Houston Oilers26.84%27.44%21.86%15.09%8.77%
Boston Patriots12.22%19.46%23.07%23.92%21.33%
Buffalo Bills9.58%16.87%22.67%25.86%25.02%
Miami Dolphins4.73%10.11%17.55%26.46%41.15%
Team12345
Oakland Raiders45.83%32.37%18.01%3.68%0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs37.89%35.54%21.46%4.95%0.16%
San Diego Chargers14.99%26.82%42.14%14.80%1.25%
Denver Broncos1.27%5.13%17.16%63.20%13.24%
Cincinnati Bengals0.02%0.14%1.23%13.37%85.24%
Team12345678910
Oakland Raiders36.83%23.23%16.25%10.51%6.20%3.68%2.08%0.90%0.32%—
Kansas City Chiefs29.90%24.34%17.11%11.48%7.93%5.09%2.32%1.28%0.48%0.07%
New York Jets11.92%16.65%17.32%16.34%13.65%10.00%7.12%4.39%2.15%0.46%
San Diego Chargers11.38%15.10%16.68%16.59%14.11%10.76%7.80%4.58%2.51%0.49%
Houston Oilers5.76%9.67%13.34%14.99%15.34%13.61%12.03%8.46%5.53%1.27%
Boston Patriots1.63%4.34%7.08%10.12%13.32%15.40%15.43%14.97%12.87%4.84%
Buffalo Bills1.32%3.20%5.67%8.57%11.70%15.07%16.77%17.25%15.14%5.31%
Denver Broncos0.71%1.94%3.64%6.03%9.24%12.69%17.19%20.57%19.29%8.70%
Miami Dolphins0.53%1.51%2.85%5.16%7.93%12.01%15.69%19.94%23.15%11.23%
Cincinnati Bengals0.02%0.02%0.06%0.21%0.58%1.69%3.57%7.66%18.56%67.63%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
New York Jets46.63%53.37%
Houston Oilers26.84%73.16%
Boston Patriots12.22%87.78%
Buffalo Bills9.58%90.42%
Miami Dolphins4.73%95.27%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders45.83%54.17%
Kansas City Chiefs37.89%62.11%
San Diego Chargers14.99%85.01%
Denver Broncos1.27%98.73%
Cincinnati Bengals0.02%99.98%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Oakland Raiders 45.83% 31.37%
Kansas City Chiefs 37.89% 25.65%
New York Jets 46.63% 20.75%
Houston Oilers 26.84% 8.51%
San Diego Chargers 14.99% 7.94%
Boston Patriots 12.22% 2.34%
Buffalo Bills 9.58% 1.99%
Miami Dolphins 4.73% 0.93%
Denver Broncos 1.27% 0.52%
Cincinnati Bengals 0.02% —
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots0.01%0.05%0.87%0.95%0.46%
Buffalo Bills0.06%0.69%0.80%0.44%
Denver Broncos0.04%0.06%0.18%0.04%0.20%
Houston Oilers0.01%0.16%2.52%3.67%2.15%
Kansas City Chiefs3.91%2.90%6.75%1.44%10.65%
Miami Dolphins0.02%0.35%0.36%0.20%
New York Jets0.46%7.81%8.68%3.80%
Oakland Raiders4.65%3.55%9.08%1.73%12.36%
San Diego Chargers1.28%1.08%2.32%0.59%2.67%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders 60.08% Won Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
New York JetsOakland Raiders
New York Jets39.92%
Oakland Raiders60.08%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Oakland Raiders 60.08% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. New York Jets
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
60.08%
New York Jets 39.92% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Oakland Raiders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
39.92%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1968-09-08 @ Buffalo Bills W 16-7 1496.31 1522.01 45.30% 52.68% +10.73 1-0
1968-09-22 New York Jets L 31-47 1507.04 1546.48 43.35% 54.63% -11.82 1-1
1968-09-29 @ Denver Broncos W 20-17 1495.22 1435.72 57.44% 40.54% +4.79 2-1
1968-10-06 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-41 1500.01 1642.69 29.69% 68.29% -11.32 2-2
1968-10-13 Houston Oilers L 0-16 1488.69 1497.16 47.77% 50.21% -13.00 2-3
1968-10-20 Buffalo Bills W 23-6 1475.69 1477.30 48.76% 49.22% +13.79 3-3
1968-10-27 @ New York Jets L 14-48 1489.48 1553.19 39.96% 58.02% -15.89 3-4
1968-11-03 Denver Broncos L 14-35 1473.59 1443.38 53.32% 44.66% -16.59 3-5
1968-11-10 San Diego Chargers L 17-27 1457.00 1581.36 31.94% 66.04% -6.91 3-6
1968-11-17 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 17-31 1450.09 1634.28 24.96% 73.03% -6.41 3-7
1968-11-24 Miami Dolphins L 10-34 1443.68 1389.67 56.68% 41.30% -18.83 3-8
1968-12-01 Cincinnati Bengals W 33-14 1424.85 1294.68 66.77% 31.22% +9.32 4-8
1968-12-08 @ Miami Dolphins L 7-38 1434.17 1401.25 53.70% 44.28% -20.29 4-9
1968-12-15 @ Houston Oilers L 17-45 1413.88 1526.77 33.39% 64.59% -12.09 4-10
1968-09-08 Boston Patriots L 7-16 1522.01 1496.31 52.68% 45.30% -10.73 0-1
1968-09-15 Oakland Raiders L 6-48 1511.28 1612.91 34.85% 63.13% -15.44 0-2
1968-09-22 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 23-34 1495.84 1289.11 75.38% 22.60% -16.93 0-3
1968-09-29 New York Jets W 37-35 1478.91 1558.30 37.81% 60.17% +5.76 1-3
1968-10-05 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-18 1484.67 1616.22 31.05% 66.94% -7.05 1-4
1968-10-12 @ Miami Dolphins T 14-14 1477.62 1409.91 58.58% 39.40% -0.32 1-4
1968-10-20 @ Boston Patriots L 6-23 1477.30 1475.69 49.22% 48.76% -13.79 1-5
1968-10-27 Houston Oilers L 7-30 1463.51 1502.84 43.37% 54.61% -14.17 1-6
1968-11-03 @ New York Jets L 21-25 1449.34 1569.09 32.52% 65.46% -4.45 1-7
1968-11-10 Miami Dolphins L 17-21 1444.89 1400.73 55.29% 42.69% -7.51 1-8
1968-11-17 San Diego Chargers L 6-21 1437.38 1588.28 28.71% 69.27% -7.62 1-9
1968-11-24 @ Denver Broncos L 32-34 1429.76 1437.11 47.93% 50.05% -4.61 1-10
1968-11-28 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-13 1425.15 1669.69 19.02% 78.96% -2.27 1-11
1968-12-07 @ Houston Oilers L 6-35 1422.88 1513.40 36.32% 61.66% -13.36 1-12
1968-09-06 @ San Diego Chargers L 13-29 1275.00 1542.24 17.09% 80.90% -4.71 0-1
1968-09-15 Denver Broncos W 24-10 1270.29 1465.83 23.75% 74.23% +18.82 1-1
1968-09-22 Buffalo Bills W 34-23 1289.11 1495.84 22.60% 75.38% +16.93 2-1
1968-09-29 San Diego Chargers L 10-31 1306.04 1559.82 18.22% 79.77% -5.75 2-2
1968-10-06 @ Denver Broncos L 7-10 1300.29 1430.93 31.16% 66.82% -3.69 2-3
1968-10-13 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 3-13 1296.60 1623.27 12.77% 85.22% -2.79 2-4
1968-10-20 Miami Dolphins L 22-24 1293.81 1410.23 32.94% 65.04% -3.19 2-5
1968-10-27 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-31 1290.62 1628.37 12.08% 85.92% -3.82 2-6
1968-11-03 Houston Oilers L 17-27 1286.80 1517.01 20.33% 77.66% -4.42 2-7
1968-11-10 Kansas City Chiefs L 9-16 1282.38 1632.21 11.36% 86.64% -2.07 2-8
1968-11-17 @ Miami Dolphins W 38-21 1280.31 1408.24 31.50% 66.49% +18.56 3-8
1968-11-24 Oakland Raiders L 0-34 1298.87 1665.49 10.42% 87.58% -4.19 3-9
1968-12-01 @ Boston Patriots L 14-33 1294.68 1424.85 31.22% 66.77% -9.32 3-10
1968-12-08 @ New York Jets L 14-27 1285.36 1600.78 13.51% 84.48% -3.36 3-11
1968-09-15 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 10-24 1465.83 1270.29 74.23% 23.75% -18.81 0-1
1968-09-22 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 2-34 1447.02 1594.36 29.13% 68.85% -11.30 0-2
1968-09-29 Boston Patriots L 17-20 1435.72 1495.22 40.54% 57.44% -4.79 0-3
1968-10-06 Cincinnati Bengals W 10-7 1430.93 1300.29 66.82% 31.16% +3.70 1-3
1968-10-13 @ New York Jets W 21-13 1434.63 1558.51 32.00% 65.98% +12.64 2-3
1968-10-20 @ San Diego Chargers L 24-55 1447.27 1572.23 31.87% 66.12% -12.15 2-4
1968-10-27 Miami Dolphins W 21-14 1435.12 1413.42 52.11% 45.87% +8.26 3-4
1968-11-03 @ Boston Patriots W 35-14 1443.38 1473.59 44.66% 53.32% +16.59 4-4
1968-11-10 Oakland Raiders L 7-43 1459.97 1646.49 24.71% 73.28% -10.18 4-5
1968-11-17 @ Houston Oilers L 17-38 1449.79 1509.07 40.57% 57.41% -12.68 4-6
1968-11-24 Buffalo Bills W 34-32 1437.11 1429.76 50.05% 47.93% +4.61 5-6
1968-12-01 San Diego Chargers L 23-47 1441.72 1579.43 30.29% 67.69% -10.17 5-7
1968-12-08 @ Oakland Raiders L 27-33 1431.55 1671.96 19.39% 78.59% -3.27 5-8
1968-12-14 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-30 1428.28 1665.87 19.65% 78.34% -6.48 5-9
1968-09-09 Kansas City Chiefs L 21-26 1532.81 1592.03 40.58% 57.40% -6.19 0-1
1968-09-14 @ Miami Dolphins W 24-10 1526.62 1418.24 64.01% 33.97% +8.69 1-1
1968-09-21 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-30 1535.31 1546.95 47.32% 50.66% -12.87 1-2
1968-09-29 Oakland Raiders L 15-24 1522.44 1635.85 33.33% 64.66% -6.84 1-3
1968-10-06 Miami Dolphins L 7-24 1515.60 1391.47 66.01% 31.97% -18.44 1-4
1968-10-13 @ Boston Patriots W 16-0 1497.16 1488.69 50.21% 47.77% +13.00 2-4
1968-10-20 New York Jets L 14-20 1510.16 1545.87 43.88% 54.10% -7.32 2-5
1968-10-27 @ Buffalo Bills W 30-7 1502.84 1463.51 54.61% 43.37% +14.17 3-5
1968-11-03 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 27-17 1517.01 1286.80 77.66% 20.33% +4.42 4-5
1968-11-10 @ New York Jets L 7-26 1521.43 1573.54 41.57% 56.41% -12.36 4-6
1968-11-17 Denver Broncos W 38-17 1509.07 1449.79 57.41% 40.57% +12.69 5-6
1968-11-28 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 10-24 1521.76 1640.69 32.62% 65.36% -8.36 5-7
1968-12-07 Buffalo Bills W 35-6 1513.40 1422.88 61.66% 36.32% +13.37 6-7
1968-12-15 Boston Patriots W 45-17 1526.77 1413.88 64.59% 33.39% +12.08 7-7
1968-09-09 @ Houston Oilers W 26-21 1592.03 1532.81 57.40% 40.58% +6.19 1-0
1968-09-15 New York Jets L 19-20 1598.22 1542.62 56.90% 41.08% -3.86 1-1
1968-09-22 Denver Broncos W 34-2 1594.36 1447.02 68.85% 29.13% +11.30 2-1
1968-09-28 @ Miami Dolphins W 48-3 1605.66 1402.04 75.07% 22.92% +10.56 3-1
1968-10-05 @ Buffalo Bills W 18-7 1616.22 1484.67 66.94% 31.05% +7.05 4-1
1968-10-13 Cincinnati Bengals W 13-3 1623.27 1296.60 85.22% 12.77% +2.79 5-1
1968-10-20 Oakland Raiders W 24-10 1626.06 1641.38 46.79% 51.19% +13.01 6-1
1968-10-27 San Diego Chargers W 27-20 1639.07 1584.37 56.77% 41.21% +7.43 7-1
1968-11-03 @ Oakland Raiders L 21-38 1646.50 1632.19 51.05% 46.93% -14.29 7-2
1968-11-10 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 16-9 1632.21 1282.38 86.64% 11.36% +2.07 8-2
1968-11-17 Boston Patriots W 31-17 1634.28 1450.09 73.03% 24.96% +6.41 9-2
1968-11-28 Houston Oilers W 24-10 1640.69 1521.76 65.36% 32.62% +8.36 10-2
1968-12-08 @ San Diego Chargers W 40-3 1649.05 1589.60 57.43% 40.55% +16.82 11-2
1968-12-14 @ Denver Broncos W 30-7 1665.87 1428.28 78.34% 19.65% +6.48 12-2
1968-09-14 Houston Oilers L 10-24 1418.24 1526.62 33.97% 64.01% -8.70 0-1
1968-09-21 Oakland Raiders L 21-47 1409.54 1628.35 21.41% 76.57% -7.50 0-2
1968-09-28 Kansas City Chiefs L 3-48 1402.04 1605.66 22.92% 75.07% -10.57 0-3
1968-10-06 @ Houston Oilers W 24-7 1391.47 1515.60 31.97% 66.01% +18.44 1-3
1968-10-12 Buffalo Bills T 14-14 1409.91 1477.62 39.40% 58.58% +0.32 1-3
1968-10-20 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 24-22 1410.23 1293.81 65.04% 32.94% +3.19 2-3
1968-10-27 @ Denver Broncos L 14-21 1413.42 1435.12 45.87% 52.11% -8.26 2-4
1968-11-03 @ San Diego Chargers L 28-34 1405.16 1576.94 26.32% 71.67% -4.43 2-5
1968-11-10 @ Buffalo Bills W 21-17 1400.73 1444.89 42.69% 55.29% +7.51 3-5
1968-11-17 Cincinnati Bengals L 21-38 1408.24 1280.31 66.49% 31.50% -18.57 3-6
1968-11-24 @ Boston Patriots W 34-10 1389.67 1443.68 41.30% 56.68% +18.83 4-6
1968-12-01 @ New York Jets L 17-35 1408.50 1593.53 24.86% 73.12% -7.25 4-7
1968-12-08 Boston Patriots W 38-7 1401.25 1434.17 44.28% 53.70% +20.30 5-7
1968-12-15 New York Jets L 7-31 1421.55 1604.14 25.13% 72.86% -8.46 5-8
1968-09-15 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 20-19 1542.62 1598.22 41.08% 56.90% +3.86 1-0
1968-09-22 @ Boston Patriots W 47-31 1546.48 1507.04 54.63% 43.35% +11.82 2-0
1968-09-29 @ Buffalo Bills L 35-37 1558.30 1478.91 60.17% 37.81% -5.77 2-1
1968-10-05 San Diego Chargers W 23-20 1552.53 1565.57 47.12% 50.86% +5.98 3-1
1968-10-13 Denver Broncos L 13-21 1558.51 1434.63 65.98% 32.00% -12.64 3-2
1968-10-20 @ Houston Oilers W 20-14 1545.87 1510.16 54.10% 43.88% +7.32 4-2
1968-10-27 Boston Patriots W 48-14 1553.19 1489.48 58.02% 39.96% +15.90 5-2
1968-11-03 Buffalo Bills W 25-21 1569.09 1449.34 65.46% 32.52% +4.45 6-2
1968-11-10 Houston Oilers W 26-7 1573.54 1521.43 56.41% 41.57% +12.35 7-2
1968-11-17 @ Oakland Raiders L 32-43 1585.89 1656.67 38.98% 59.00% -8.82 7-3
1968-11-24 @ San Diego Chargers W 37-15 1577.07 1595.90 46.29% 51.69% +16.46 8-3
1968-12-01 Miami Dolphins W 35-17 1593.53 1408.50 73.12% 24.86% +7.25 9-3
1968-12-08 Cincinnati Bengals W 27-14 1600.78 1285.36 84.48% 13.51% +3.36 10-3
1968-12-15 @ Miami Dolphins W 31-7 1604.14 1421.55 72.86% 25.13% +8.45 11-3
1968-09-15 @ Buffalo Bills W 48-6 1612.91 1511.28 63.13% 34.85% +15.44 1-0
1968-09-21 @ Miami Dolphins W 47-21 1628.35 1409.54 76.57% 21.41% +7.50 2-0
1968-09-29 @ Houston Oilers W 24-15 1635.85 1522.44 64.66% 33.33% +6.84 3-0
1968-10-06 Boston Patriots W 41-10 1642.69 1500.01 68.29% 29.69% +11.33 4-0
1968-10-13 San Diego Chargers L 14-23 1654.02 1559.59 62.18% 35.80% -12.64 4-1
1968-10-20 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 10-24 1641.38 1626.06 51.19% 46.79% -13.01 4-2
1968-10-27 Cincinnati Bengals W 31-10 1628.37 1290.62 85.92% 12.08% +3.82 5-2
1968-11-03 Kansas City Chiefs W 38-21 1632.19 1646.50 46.93% 51.05% +14.30 6-2
1968-11-10 @ Denver Broncos W 43-7 1646.49 1459.97 73.28% 24.71% +10.18 7-2
1968-11-17 New York Jets W 43-32 1656.67 1585.89 59.00% 38.98% +8.82 8-2
1968-11-24 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 34-0 1665.49 1298.87 87.58% 10.42% +4.20 9-2
1968-11-28 Buffalo Bills W 13-10 1669.69 1425.15 78.96% 19.02% +2.27 10-2
1968-12-08 Denver Broncos W 33-27 1671.96 1431.55 78.59% 19.39% +3.27 11-2
1968-12-15 @ San Diego Chargers W 34-27 1675.23 1572.78 63.24% 34.74% +6.28 12-2
1968-09-06 Cincinnati Bengals W 29-13 1542.24 1275.00 80.90% 17.09% +4.71 1-0
1968-09-21 Houston Oilers W 30-14 1546.95 1535.31 50.66% 47.32% +12.87 2-0
1968-09-29 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 31-10 1559.82 1306.04 79.77% 18.22% +5.75 3-0
1968-10-05 @ New York Jets L 20-23 1565.57 1552.53 50.86% 47.12% -5.98 3-1
1968-10-13 @ Oakland Raiders W 23-14 1559.59 1654.02 35.80% 62.18% +12.64 4-1
1968-10-20 Denver Broncos W 55-24 1572.23 1447.27 66.12% 31.87% +12.14 5-1
1968-10-27 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 20-27 1584.37 1639.07 41.21% 56.77% -7.43 5-2
1968-11-03 Miami Dolphins W 34-28 1576.94 1405.16 71.67% 26.32% +4.42 6-2
1968-11-10 @ Boston Patriots W 27-17 1581.36 1457.00 66.04% 31.94% +6.92 7-2
1968-11-17 @ Buffalo Bills W 21-6 1588.28 1437.38 69.27% 28.71% +7.62 8-2
1968-11-24 New York Jets L 15-37 1595.90 1577.07 51.69% 46.29% -16.47 8-3
1968-12-01 @ Denver Broncos W 47-23 1579.43 1441.72 67.69% 30.29% +10.17 9-3
1968-12-08 Kansas City Chiefs L 3-40 1589.60 1649.05 40.55% 57.43% -16.82 9-4
1968-12-15 Oakland Raiders L 27-34 1572.78 1675.23 34.74% 63.24% -6.29 9-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1968-12-22 @ Oakland Raiders L 6-41 1672.35 1681.51 48.68% 51.32% -19.18 0-1
1968-12-29 Oakland Raiders W 27-23 1612.59 1700.69 37.59% 62.41% +8.31 1-0
1968-12-22 Kansas City Chiefs W 41-6 1681.51 1672.35 51.32% 48.68% +19.18 1-0
1968-12-29 @ New York Jets L 23-27 1700.69 1612.59 62.41% 37.59% -8.31 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1968-09-22 22.60% @ Cincinnati Bengals 1289.11 34 Buffalo Bills 1495.84 23
2 1968-09-15 23.75% @ Cincinnati Bengals 1270.29 24 Denver Broncos 1465.83 10
3 1968-11-17 31.50% Cincinnati Bengals 1280.31 38 @ Miami Dolphins 1408.24 21
4 1968-10-06 31.97% Miami Dolphins 1391.47 24 @ Houston Oilers 1515.60 7
5 1968-10-13 32.00% Denver Broncos 1434.63 21 @ New York Jets 1558.51 13
6 1968-10-13 35.80% San Diego Chargers 1559.59 23 @ Oakland Raiders 1654.02 14
7 1968-12-29 * 37.59% @ New York Jets 1612.59 27 Oakland Raiders 1700.69 23
8 1968-09-29 37.81% @ Buffalo Bills 1478.91 37 New York Jets 1558.30 35
9 1968-09-15 41.08% New York Jets 1542.62 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1598.22 19
10 1968-11-24 41.30% Miami Dolphins 1389.67 34 @ Boston Patriots 1443.68 10
11 1968-11-10 42.69% Miami Dolphins 1400.73 21 @ Buffalo Bills 1444.89 17
12 1968-12-08 44.28% @ Miami Dolphins 1401.25 38 Boston Patriots 1434.17 7
13 1968-11-03 44.66% Denver Broncos 1443.38 35 @ Boston Patriots 1473.59 14
14 1968-09-08 45.30% Boston Patriots 1496.31 16 @ Buffalo Bills 1522.01 7
15 1968-11-24 46.29% New York Jets 1577.07 37 @ San Diego Chargers 1595.90 15
16 1968-10-20 46.79% @ Kansas City Chiefs 1626.06 24 Oakland Raiders 1641.38 10
17 1968-11-03 46.93% @ Oakland Raiders 1632.19 38 Kansas City Chiefs 1646.50 21
18 1968-10-05 47.12% @ New York Jets 1552.53 23 San Diego Chargers 1565.57 20
19 1968-10-20 48.76% @ Boston Patriots 1475.69 23 Buffalo Bills 1477.30 6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-12-08 20.30 @ Miami Dolphins 38 1401.25 44.28% Boston Patriots 7 1434.17 53.70%
2 1968-12-22 * 19.18 @ Oakland Raiders 41 1681.51 51.32% Kansas City Chiefs 6 1672.35 48.68%
3 1968-11-24 18.83 Miami Dolphins 34 1389.67 41.30% @ Boston Patriots 10 1443.68 56.68%
4 1968-09-15 18.82 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24 1270.29 23.75% Denver Broncos 10 1465.83 74.23%
5 1968-11-17 18.57 Cincinnati Bengals 38 1280.31 31.50% @ Miami Dolphins 21 1408.24 66.49%
6 1968-10-06 18.44 Miami Dolphins 24 1391.47 31.97% @ Houston Oilers 7 1515.60 66.01%
7 1968-09-22 16.93 @ Cincinnati Bengals 34 1289.11 22.60% Buffalo Bills 23 1495.84 75.38%
8 1968-12-08 16.82 Kansas City Chiefs 40 1649.05 57.43% @ San Diego Chargers 3 1589.60 40.55%
9 1968-11-03 16.59 Denver Broncos 35 1443.38 44.66% @ Boston Patriots 14 1473.59 53.32%
10 1968-11-24 16.47 New York Jets 37 1577.07 46.29% @ San Diego Chargers 15 1595.90 51.69%
11 1968-10-27 15.90 @ New York Jets 48 1553.19 58.02% Boston Patriots 14 1489.48 39.96%
12 1968-09-15 15.44 Oakland Raiders 48 1612.91 63.13% @ Buffalo Bills 6 1511.28 34.85%
13 1968-11-03 14.30 @ Oakland Raiders 38 1632.19 46.93% Kansas City Chiefs 21 1646.50 51.05%
14 1968-10-27 14.17 Houston Oilers 30 1502.84 54.61% @ Buffalo Bills 7 1463.51 43.37%
15 1968-10-20 13.79 @ Boston Patriots 23 1475.69 48.76% Buffalo Bills 6 1477.30 49.22%
16 1968-12-07 13.37 @ Houston Oilers 35 1513.40 61.66% Buffalo Bills 6 1422.88 36.32%
17 1968-10-20 13.01 @ Kansas City Chiefs 24 1626.06 46.79% Oakland Raiders 10 1641.38 51.19%
18 1968-10-13 13.00 Houston Oilers 16 1497.16 50.21% @ Boston Patriots 0 1488.69 47.77%
19 1968-09-21 12.87 @ San Diego Chargers 30 1546.95 50.66% Houston Oilers 14 1535.31 47.32%
20 1968-11-17 12.69 @ Houston Oilers 38 1509.07 57.41% Denver Broncos 17 1449.79 40.57%
21 1968-10-13 12.64 Denver Broncos 21 1434.63 32.00% @ New York Jets 13 1558.51 65.98%
22 1968-10-13 12.64 San Diego Chargers 23 1559.59 35.80% @ Oakland Raiders 14 1654.02 62.18%
23 1968-11-10 12.36 @ New York Jets 26 1573.54 56.41% Houston Oilers 7 1521.43 41.57%
24 1968-10-20 12.15 @ San Diego Chargers 55 1572.23 66.12% Denver Broncos 24 1447.27 31.87%
25 1968-12-15 12.09 @ Houston Oilers 45 1526.77 64.59% Boston Patriots 17 1413.88 33.39%