1969 AFL Season

70 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

3rd Title

Last Title: 1966

Runner-Up

Oakland Raiders

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1968

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

1.19 wins above expected

12 wins · 11.31 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Miami Dolphins

2.15 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.65 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Jets Division	10	4	0	.714	-	353	269	+84	10.36	-0.36
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	6	6	2	.500	3	278	279	-1	8.24	-1.24
3	Boston Patriots	4	10	0	.286	6	266	316	-50	3.62	+0.38
4	Buffalo Bills	4	10	0	.286	6	230	359	-129	4.12	-0.12
5	Miami Dolphins	3	10	1	.250	6.5	233	332	-99	5.65	-2.15

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	12	1	1	.893	-	377	242	+135	11.31	+1.19
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	11	3	0	.786	1.5	359	177	+182	10.33	+0.67
3	San Diego Chargers	8	6	0	.571	4.5	288	276	+12	7.69	+0.31
4	Denver Broncos	5	8	1	.393	7	297	344	-47	4.78	+0.72
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	9	1	.321	8	280	367	-87	3.90	+0.60

Playoff Bracket

AFL Playoffs

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 13

New York Jets 6

Dec 20

Oakland Raiders 56

Houston Oilers 7

Dec 21

AFL Championship Game

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Oakland Raiders 7

Jan 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Oakland Raiders	West	1782	12.5	11.31	+1.19	97.02%	4	9	10	11	12	13	14
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1706	11	10.33	+0.67	82.19%	3	8	9	10	11	12	14
New York Jets	East	1663	10	10.36	-0.36	57.42%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1543	8	7.69	+0.31	73.66%	1	5	6	7	9	10	14
Houston Oilers	East	1535	7	8.24	-1.24	61.31%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	East	1407	3.5	5.65	-2.15	28.79%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Denver Broncos	West	1393	5.5	4.78	+0.72	88.86%	0	2	3	5	6	7	12
Cincinnati Bengals	West	1338	4.5	3.90	+0.60	88.65%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Buffalo Bills	East	1321	4	4.12	-0.12	66.07%	0	2	3	4	5	6	11
Boston Patriots	East	1311	4	3.62	+0.38	77.28%	0	1	2	3	4	6	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bengals	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bengals	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.43%	1.43%	2.86%	1.43%	—	0.71%	7.86%
7–13	1.43%	1.43%	1.43%	4.29%	1.43%	2.14%	—	12.14%
14–20	1.43%	1.43%	5.71%	11.43%	5.00%	0.71%	—	25.71%
21–27	2.86%	4.29%	11.43%	7.14%	2.14%	2.14%	2.14%	32.14%
28–34	1.43%	1.43%	5.00%	2.14%	2.86%	0.71%	—	13.57%
35–41	—	2.14%	0.71%	2.14%	0.71%	—	—	5.71%
42+	0.71%	—	—	2.14%	—	—	—	2.86%
Total	7.86%	12.14%	25.71%	32.14%	13.57%	5.71%	2.86%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.15	21.15	+0.00
SD	10.04	10.04	15.39
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	50	50	+39
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 70

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	22.57	-3.57
SD	10.17	9.69	15.69
CV	0.54	0.43	—
Max	38	38	+24
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.43	25.64	-9.21
SD	10.52	12.65	16.93
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	41	50	+25
Min	3	3	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	28.57%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	26.21	-6.21
SD	8.77	8.58	13.43
CV	0.44	0.33	—
Max	34	42	+14
Min	7	16	-33

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	24.57	-3.36
SD	7.31	12.55	15.25
CV	0.34	0.51	—
Max	35	45	+28
Min	10	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	50.00%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.86	19.93	-0.07
SD	9.88	8.73	13.91
CV	0.50	0.44	—
Max	32	34	+25
Min	0	3	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.64	12.64	+13.00
SD	8.47	8.62	11.61
CV	0.33	0.68	—
Max	42	27	+31
Min	6	0	-5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.64	23.71	-7.07
SD	8.19	8.20	11.53
CV	0.49	0.35	—
Max	31	38	+18
Min	3	6	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.21	19.21	+6.00
SD	7.86	10.00	13.06
CV	0.31	0.52	—
Max	40	34	+33
Min	14	6	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	50.00%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.93	17.29	+9.64
SD	10.82	6.32	11.80
CV	0.40	0.37	—
Max	50	31	+31
Min	10	6	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.57	19.71	+0.86
SD	13.72	7.87	16.77
CV	0.67	0.40	—
Max	45	34	+39
Min	0	6	-24

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.87	+0.6
Allowed	0.76	-0.5
Differential	0.92	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	12.5	11.31	+1.19
2	Denver Broncos	5.5	4.78	+0.72
3	Kansas City Chiefs	11	10.33	+0.67
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4.5	3.90	+0.60
5	Boston Patriots	4	3.62	+0.38

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Miami Dolphins	3.5	5.65	-2.15
2	Houston Oilers	7	8.24	-1.24
3	New York Jets	10	10.36	-0.36
4	Buffalo Bills	4	4.12	-0.12
5	San Diego Chargers	8	7.69	+0.31

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	3	Sep 14 – Sep 28	1 in 35
2	Boston Patriots	3	Nov 16 – Nov 30	1 in 26
3	Oakland Raiders	6	Nov 9 – Dec 13	1 in 8
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	Oct 5 – Nov 16	1 in 8
5	San Diego Chargers	4	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	5	Nov 16 – Dec 14	1 in 10
2	New York Jets	2	Sep 21 – Sep 28	1 in 9
3	Oakland Raiders	1	Nov 2 – Nov 2	1 in 9
4	Boston Patriots	7	Sep 14 – Oct 26	1 in 6
5	Kansas City Chiefs	1	Sep 28 – Sep 28	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Jets	80.11%	17.86%	1.85%	0.17%	0.01%
Houston Oilers	18.22%	64.29%	14.06%	2.88%	0.55%
Miami Dolphins	1.45%	13.30%	50.92%	24.00%	10.33%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	2.86%	19.68%	40.72%	36.59%
Boston Patriots	0.07%	1.70%	13.49%	32.23%	52.52%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	65.61%	30.09%	4.19%	0.12%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	31.64%	55.78%	11.82%	0.70%	0.06%
San Diego Chargers	2.68%	13.27%	68.96%	12.61%	2.48%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.71%	10.64%	54.19%	34.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%	0.15%	4.39%	32.38%	63.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Oakland Raiders	50.21%	27.82%	15.44%	4.97%	1.31%	0.21%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Kansas City Chiefs	22.60%	29.34%	29.33%	12.80%	4.64%	0.98%	0.24%	0.05%	0.01%	<0.01%
New York Jets	23.43%	30.39%	25.82%	13.14%	5.49%	1.32%	0.31%	0.08%	0.02%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	2.11%	7.02%	16.12%	33.50%	24.67%	10.25%	4.03%	1.57%	0.58%	0.16%
San Diego Chargers	1.56%	4.87%	10.83%	24.25%	32.47%	15.16%	6.52%	2.78%	1.17%	0.39%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%	0.37%	1.52%	6.23%	15.02%	27.76%	20.63%	14.00%	8.98%	5.43%
Denver Broncos	0.03%	0.13%	0.58%	2.77%	7.53%	16.76%	22.67%	20.72%	16.90%	11.90%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.03%	0.16%	1.00%	3.49%	11.50%	17.89%	22.09%	22.31%	21.54%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%	0.02%	0.12%	0.70%	3.06%	9.08%	15.52%	20.74%	25.63%	25.13%
Boston Patriots	<0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.63%	2.32%	6.97%	12.15%	17.96%	24.40%	35.45%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Jets	80.11%	19.89%
Houston Oilers	18.22%	81.78%
Miami Dolphins	1.45%	98.55%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	99.85%
Boston Patriots	0.07%	99.93%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders	65.61%	34.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	31.64%	68.36%
San Diego Chargers	2.68%	97.32%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	99.94%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%	99.99%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+27.14%

Fortress

61.43%4.29%34.29%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 96.73 Elo pts.

28 Elo

0.035 points per Elo point

080

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.73 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.40+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

3.0

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

19%

Kansas City Chiefs, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.24 · As Expected: 1.24 to 1.7 · Elevated: 1.7 to 2.32 · High Variance: 2.32 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 · Close: 0.94 to 1.27 · Off Target: 1.27 to 1.65 · Well Off Target: 1.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.41 · As Expected: 0.41 to 0.68 · More Than Expected: 0.68 to 1.09 · Far More Than Expected: 1.09 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

0.90 wins

Subdued

01.554

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.10

01.102.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.02%

Oakland Raiders

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

28.79%

Miami Dolphins

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

As Expected

01.010

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.59

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

83%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.14

Highly Predictable

00.171

Matchup Imbalance

0.50

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.47

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.92

Closely Aligned

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Chalk Held

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Favorites Held

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.17 · Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.34 · Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.70

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.24

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.100

Within Noise

00.1710.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Oakland Raiders	65.61%	45.59%
New York Jets	80.11%	30.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	31.64%	18.89%
Houston Oilers	18.22%	4.25%
San Diego Chargers	2.68%	0.98%
Miami Dolphins	1.45%	0.19%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	<0.01%
Boston Patriots	0.07%	<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets
Boston Patriots			10.5%0.02%	6.5%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills			10.9%0.05%	3.0%0.10%	0.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%	28.5%5.85%	19.8%11.91%	47.7%0.45%
Miami Dolphins		50.0%<0.01%	17.0%0.50%	10.4%0.91%	35.7%0.04%
New York Jets	83.3%<0.01%	88.2%0.05%	43.6%25.22%	33.4%52.65%	67.3%2.19%
Cincinnati Bengals								0.0%<0.01%		16.7%<0.01%
Denver Broncos								25.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	11.8%0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs						89.5%0.02%	89.1%0.05%	71.5%5.85%	83.0%0.50%	56.4%25.22%
Oakland Raiders						93.5%0.05%	97.0%0.10%	80.2%11.91%	89.6%0.91%	66.6%52.65%
San Diego Chargers						100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	52.3%0.45%	64.3%0.04%	32.7%2.19%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders	66.44%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Oakland Raiders	New York Jets
New York Jets	33.6%100.00%
Oakland Raiders		66.4%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Oakland Raiders 66.44% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.44%

New York Jets 33.56% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.56%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-35	1303.41	1390.69	24.44%	72.14%	-2.48	0-1
1969-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-31	1300.93	1698.17	14.45%	83.17%	-1.52	0-2
1969-09-28	Oakland Raiders	L 23-38	1299.41	1776.85	9.74%	88.52%	-0.71	0-3
1969-10-05	New York Jets	L 14-23	1298.70	1660.32	17.08%	80.22%	-0.98	0-4
1969-10-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-23	1297.72	1322.27	31.49%	64.61%	-1.60	0-5
1969-10-19	San Diego Chargers	L 10-13	1296.12	1543.66	28.03%	68.28%	-0.93	0-6
1969-10-26	@ New York Jets	L 17-23	1295.19	1664.01	6.27%	92.53%	-0.29	0-7
1969-11-02	Houston Oilers	W 24-0	1294.90	1542.08	28.07%	68.24%	+6.28	1-7
1969-11-09	Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1301.18	1421.08	44.52%	51.16%	-0.85	1-8
1969-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 25-14	1300.33	1346.47	28.93%	67.32%	+4.19	2-8
1969-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 35-21	1304.52	1324.36	58.71%	37.13%	+2.67	3-8
1969-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-23	1307.19	1413.04	22.58%	74.17%	+5.37	4-8
1969-12-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 18-28	1312.56	1540.69	12.85%	84.97%	-0.77	4-9
1969-12-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-27	1311.79	1534.99	13.16%	84.62%	-0.49	4-10
1969-09-14	New York Jets	L 19-33	1323.76	1663.46	18.88%	78.22%	-1.35	0-1
1969-09-21	Houston Oilers	L 3-17	1322.41	1539.76	31.57%	64.52%	-2.27	0-2
1969-09-28	Denver Broncos	W 41-28	1320.14	1395.05	50.97%	44.71%	+3.08	1-2
1969-10-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-28	1323.22	1543.44	13.35%	84.40%	-0.95	1-3
1969-10-11	Boston Patriots	W 23-16	1322.27	1297.72	64.61%	31.49%	+1.60	2-3
1969-10-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-50	1323.87	1778.19	3.96%	95.24%	-0.39	2-4
1969-10-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-24	1323.48	1419.56	23.54%	73.11%	-1.92	2-5
1969-11-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-29	1321.56	1700.65	15.75%	81.71%	-1.40	2-6
1969-11-09	@ New York Jets	L 6-16	1320.16	1664.69	7.13%	91.53%	-0.42	2-7
1969-11-16	Miami Dolphins	W 28-3	1319.74	1421.93	47.05%	48.62%	+4.62	3-7
1969-11-23	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-35	1324.36	1304.52	37.13%	58.71%	-2.66	3-8
1969-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-13	1321.70	1341.40	58.73%	37.12%	+1.23	4-8
1969-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-22	1322.93	1707.06	5.78%	93.10%	-0.19	4-9
1969-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-45	1322.74	1541.46	13.45%	84.29%	-1.59	4-10
1969-09-14	Miami Dolphins	W 27-21	1335.81	1425.84	48.80%	46.87%	+2.18	1-0
1969-09-21	San Diego Chargers	W 34-20	1337.99	1542.48	33.16%	62.85%	+4.43	2-0
1969-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-19	1342.42	1699.70	17.43%	79.83%	+3.33	3-0
1969-10-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1345.75	1540.65	15.07%	82.46%	-0.76	3-1
1969-10-12	New York Jets	L 7-21	1344.99	1661.29	20.96%	75.93%	-1.50	3-2
1969-10-19	Denver Broncos	L 23-30	1343.49	1389.54	55.07%	40.68%	-2.76	3-3
1969-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-42	1340.73	1700.10	6.59%	92.15%	-0.55	3-4
1969-11-02	Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1340.18	1780.55	11.72%	86.26%	+5.99	4-4
1969-11-09	@ Houston Oilers	T 31-31	1346.17	1535.80	15.45%	82.04%	+0.30	4-4
1969-11-16	Boston Patriots	L 14-25	1346.47	1300.33	67.32%	28.93%	-4.19	4-5
1969-11-23	@ New York Jets	L 7-40	1342.28	1660.61	8.17%	90.33%	-0.88	4-6
1969-11-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1341.40	1321.70	37.12%	58.73%	-1.23	4-7
1969-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-37	1340.17	1780.51	4.27%	94.87%	-0.35	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-27	1339.82	1391.55	28.29%	68.00%	-1.80	4-9
1969-09-14	Boston Patriots	W 35-7	1390.69	1303.41	72.14%	24.44%	+2.48	1-0
1969-09-21	New York Jets	W 21-19	1393.17	1664.81	25.39%	71.12%	+1.88	2-0
1969-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-41	1395.05	1320.14	44.71%	50.97%	-3.07	2-1
1969-10-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-26	1391.98	1696.37	22.08%	74.70%	-1.53	2-2
1969-10-12	Oakland Raiders	L 14-24	1390.45	1777.28	15.18%	82.34%	-0.91	2-3
1969-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-23	1389.54	1343.49	40.68%	55.07%	+2.76	3-3
1969-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-24	1392.30	1541.46	18.63%	78.50%	-0.62	3-4
1969-11-02	San Diego Chargers	W 13-0	1391.68	1542.62	40.19%	55.57%	+3.79	4-4
1969-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-41	1395.47	1774.57	5.94%	92.92%	-0.61	4-5
1969-11-16	Houston Oilers	T 20-20	1394.86	1535.49	41.61%	54.11%	+0.05	4-5
1969-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-45	1394.91	1536.69	19.27%	77.80%	-1.68	4-6
1969-11-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1393.23	1706.48	8.38%	90.08%	-0.59	4-7
1969-12-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1392.64	1407.66	32.66%	63.38%	-1.09	4-8
1969-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-16	1391.55	1339.82	68.00%	28.29%	+1.81	5-8
1969-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1540.23	1776.17	12.37%	85.52%	-0.47	0-1
1969-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-3	1539.76	1322.41	64.52%	31.57%	+2.27	1-1
1969-09-28	Miami Dolphins	W 22-10	1542.03	1423.43	75.50%	21.36%	+1.41	2-1
1969-10-05	Buffalo Bills	W 28-14	1543.44	1323.22	84.40%	13.35%	+0.95	3-1
1969-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-24	1544.39	1697.90	18.27%	78.90%	-1.71	3-2
1969-10-20	@ New York Jets	L 17-26	1542.68	1662.79	21.22%	75.65%	-1.22	3-3
1969-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1541.46	1392.30	78.50%	18.63%	+0.62	4-3
1969-11-02	@ Boston Patriots	L 0-24	1542.08	1294.90	68.24%	28.07%	-6.28	4-4
1969-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	T 31-31	1535.80	1346.17	82.04%	15.45%	-0.31	4-4
1969-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	T 20-20	1535.49	1394.86	54.11%	41.61%	-0.05	4-4
1969-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 32-7	1535.44	1417.31	50.91%	44.77%	+4.27	5-4
1969-11-27	San Diego Chargers	L 17-21	1539.71	1538.37	61.57%	34.38%	-2.32	5-5
1969-12-06	New York Jets	L 26-34	1537.39	1658.39	44.36%	51.32%	-2.40	5-6
1969-12-14	Boston Patriots	W 27-23	1534.99	1311.79	84.62%	13.16%	+0.50	6-6
1969-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-9	1694.89	1545.76	55.31%	40.44%	+3.28	1-0
1969-09-21	@ Boston Patriots	W 31-0	1698.17	1300.93	83.17%	14.45%	+1.53	2-0
1969-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-24	1699.70	1342.42	79.83%	17.43%	-3.33	2-1
1969-10-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-13	1696.37	1391.98	74.70%	22.08%	+1.53	3-1
1969-10-12	Houston Oilers	W 24-0	1697.90	1544.39	78.90%	18.27%	+1.70	4-1
1969-10-19	Miami Dolphins	W 17-10	1699.60	1420.05	88.27%	9.96%	+0.50	5-1
1969-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-22	1700.10	1340.73	92.15%	6.59%	+0.55	6-1
1969-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-7	1700.65	1321.56	81.71%	15.75%	+1.40	7-1
1969-11-09	San Diego Chargers	W 27-3	1702.05	1538.83	79.78%	17.48%	+1.63	8-1
1969-11-16	@ New York Jets	W 34-16	1703.68	1665.11	39.65%	56.12%	+4.50	9-1
1969-11-23	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1708.18	1775.70	52.02%	43.67%	-1.70	9-2
1969-11-27	Denver Broncos	W 31-17	1706.48	1393.23	90.08%	8.38%	+0.58	10-2
1969-12-07	Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1707.06	1322.93	93.10%	5.78%	+0.19	11-2
1969-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-10	1707.25	1780.86	25.88%	70.59%	-0.99	11-3
1969-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-27	1425.84	1335.81	46.87%	48.80%	-2.19	0-1
1969-09-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1423.65	1776.63	6.82%	91.89%	-0.22	0-2
1969-09-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-22	1423.43	1542.03	21.36%	75.50%	-1.41	0-3
1969-10-04	Oakland Raiders	T 20-20	1422.02	1777.56	17.57%	79.68%	+0.28	0-3
1969-10-11	San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1422.30	1541.41	44.63%	51.05%	-2.25	0-4
1969-10-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1420.05	1699.60	9.96%	88.27%	-0.49	0-5
1969-10-26	Buffalo Bills	W 24-6	1419.56	1323.48	73.11%	23.54%	+1.91	1-5
1969-11-02	@ New York Jets	L 31-34	1421.47	1664.30	11.96%	85.98%	-0.39	1-6
1969-11-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 17-16	1421.08	1301.18	51.16%	44.52%	+0.85	2-6
1969-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-28	1421.93	1319.74	48.62%	47.05%	-4.62	2-7
1969-11-23	Houston Oilers	L 7-32	1417.31	1535.44	44.77%	50.91%	-4.27	2-8
1969-11-30	Boston Patriots	L 23-38	1413.04	1307.19	74.17%	22.58%	-5.38	2-9
1969-12-07	Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1407.66	1392.64	63.38%	32.66%	+1.09	3-9
1969-12-14	New York Jets	L 9-27	1408.75	1660.78	27.52%	68.82%	-2.24	3-10
1969-09-14	@ Buffalo Bills	W 33-19	1663.46	1323.76	78.22%	18.88%	+1.35	1-0
1969-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-21	1664.81	1393.17	71.12%	25.39%	-1.89	1-1
1969-09-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-34	1662.92	1538.05	51.87%	43.82%	-2.60	1-2
1969-10-05	@ Boston Patriots	W 23-14	1660.32	1298.70	80.22%	17.08%	+0.97	2-2
1969-10-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-7	1661.29	1344.99	75.93%	20.96%	+1.50	3-2
1969-10-20	Houston Oilers	W 26-17	1662.79	1542.68	75.65%	21.22%	+1.22	4-2
1969-10-26	Boston Patriots	W 23-17	1664.01	1295.19	92.53%	6.27%	+0.29	5-2
1969-11-02	Miami Dolphins	W 34-31	1664.30	1421.47	85.98%	11.96%	+0.39	6-2
1969-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 16-6	1664.69	1320.16	91.53%	7.13%	+0.42	7-2
1969-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-34	1665.11	1703.68	56.12%	39.65%	-4.50	7-3
1969-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 40-7	1660.61	1342.28	90.33%	8.17%	+0.88	8-3
1969-11-30	Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1661.49	1777.41	45.09%	50.59%	-3.10	8-4
1969-12-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-26	1658.39	1537.39	51.32%	44.36%	+2.39	9-4
1969-12-14	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-9	1660.78	1408.75	68.82%	27.52%	+2.24	10-4
1969-09-14	Houston Oilers	W 21-17	1776.17	1540.23	85.52%	12.37%	+0.46	1-0
1969-09-20	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1776.63	1423.65	91.89%	6.82%	+0.22	2-0
1969-09-28	@ Boston Patriots	W 38-23	1776.85	1299.41	88.52%	9.74%	+0.71	3-0
1969-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	T 20-20	1777.56	1422.02	79.68%	17.57%	-0.28	3-0
1969-10-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-14	1777.28	1390.45	82.34%	15.18%	+0.91	4-0
1969-10-19	Buffalo Bills	W 50-21	1778.19	1323.87	95.24%	3.96%	+0.39	5-0
1969-10-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-12	1778.58	1544.59	66.62%	29.59%	+1.97	6-0
1969-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1780.55	1340.18	86.26%	11.72%	-5.98	6-1
1969-11-09	Denver Broncos	W 41-10	1774.57	1395.47	92.92%	5.94%	+0.61	7-1
1969-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 21-16	1775.18	1537.20	85.66%	12.25%	+0.52	8-1
1969-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1775.70	1708.18	43.67%	52.02%	+1.71	9-1
1969-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 27-14	1777.41	1661.49	50.59%	45.09%	+3.10	10-1
1969-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-17	1780.51	1340.17	94.87%	4.27%	+0.35	11-1
1969-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 10-6	1780.86	1707.25	70.59%	25.88%	+0.99	12-1
1969-09-14	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-27	1545.76	1694.89	40.44%	55.31%	-3.28	0-1
1969-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-34	1542.48	1337.99	62.85%	33.16%	-4.43	0-2
1969-09-28	New York Jets	W 34-27	1538.05	1662.92	43.82%	51.87%	+2.60	1-2
1969-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-14	1540.65	1345.75	82.46%	15.07%	+0.76	2-2
1969-10-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1541.41	1422.30	51.05%	44.63%	+2.25	3-2
1969-10-19	@ Boston Patriots	W 13-10	1543.66	1296.12	68.28%	28.03%	+0.93	4-2
1969-10-26	Oakland Raiders	L 12-24	1544.59	1778.58	29.59%	66.62%	-1.97	4-3
1969-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-13	1542.62	1391.68	55.57%	40.19%	-3.79	4-4
1969-11-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-27	1538.83	1702.05	17.48%	79.78%	-1.63	4-5
1969-11-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-21	1537.20	1775.18	12.25%	85.66%	-0.51	4-6
1969-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 45-24	1536.69	1394.91	77.80%	19.27%	+1.68	5-6
1969-11-27	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-17	1538.37	1539.71	34.38%	61.57%	+2.32	6-6
1969-12-07	Boston Patriots	W 28-18	1540.69	1312.56	84.97%	12.85%	+0.77	7-6
1969-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 45-6	1541.46	1322.74	84.29%	13.45%	+1.59	8-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-56	1535.49	1781.85	12.19%	87.81%	-1.55	0-1
1969-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 13-6	1706.26	1663.02	42.36%	57.64%	+2.77	1-0
1970-01-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-7	1709.03	1783.41	27.19%	72.81%	+4.19	2-0
1969-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-13	1663.02	1706.26	57.64%	42.36%	-2.77	0-1
1969-12-21	Houston Oilers	W 56-7	1781.85	1535.49	87.81%	12.19%	+1.56	1-0
1970-01-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-17	1783.41	1709.03	72.81%	27.19%	-4.19	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1969-11-02	11.72%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1340.18	31	Oakland Raiders	1780.55	17
2	1969-09-28	17.43%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1342.42	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1699.70	19
3	1969-11-30	22.58%	Boston Patriots	1307.19	38	@ Miami Dolphins	1413.04	23
4	1969-09-21	25.39%	@ Denver Broncos	1393.17	21	New York Jets	1664.81	19
5	1970-01-04 *	27.19%	Kansas City Chiefs	1709.03	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1783.41	7
6	1969-11-02	28.07%	@ Boston Patriots	1294.90	24	Houston Oilers	1542.08	0
7	1969-11-16	28.93%	Boston Patriots	1300.33	25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1346.47	14
8	1969-09-21	33.16%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1337.99	34	San Diego Chargers	1542.48	20
9	1969-11-27	34.38%	San Diego Chargers	1538.37	21	@ Houston Oilers	1539.71	17
10	1969-11-16	39.65%	Kansas City Chiefs	1703.68	34	@ New York Jets	1665.11	16
11	1969-11-02	40.19%	@ Denver Broncos	1391.68	13	San Diego Chargers	1542.62	0
12	1969-10-19	40.68%	Denver Broncos	1389.54	30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1343.49	23
13	1969-12-20 *	42.36%	Kansas City Chiefs	1706.26	13	@ New York Jets	1663.02	6
14	1969-11-23	43.67%	Oakland Raiders	1775.70	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1708.18	24
15	1969-09-28	43.82%	@ San Diego Chargers	1538.05	34	New York Jets	1662.92	27
16	1969-11-16	47.05%	@ Buffalo Bills	1319.74	28	Miami Dolphins	1421.93	3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1969-11-02	6.28	@ Boston Patriots	24	1294.90	28.07%	Houston Oilers	0	1542.08	68.24%
2	1969-11-02	5.99	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1340.18	11.72%	Oakland Raiders	17	1780.55	86.26%
3	1969-11-30	5.38	Boston Patriots	38	1307.19	22.58%	@ Miami Dolphins	23	1413.04	74.17%
4	1969-11-16	4.62	@ Buffalo Bills	28	1319.74	47.05%	Miami Dolphins	3	1421.93	48.62%
5	1969-11-16	4.50	Kansas City Chiefs	34	1703.68	39.65%	@ New York Jets	16	1665.11	56.12%
6	1969-09-21	4.43	@ Cincinnati Bengals	34	1337.99	33.16%	San Diego Chargers	20	1542.48	62.85%
7	1969-11-23	4.27	Houston Oilers	32	1535.44	50.91%	@ Miami Dolphins	7	1417.31	44.77%
8	1969-11-16	4.19	Boston Patriots	25	1300.33	28.93%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	14	1346.47	67.32%
9	1970-01-04 *	4.19	Kansas City Chiefs	17	1709.03	27.19%	@ Oakland Raiders	7	1783.41	72.81%
10	1969-11-02	3.79	@ Denver Broncos	13	1391.68	40.19%	San Diego Chargers	0	1542.62	55.57%
11	1969-09-28	3.33	@ Cincinnati Bengals	24	1342.42	17.43%	Kansas City Chiefs	19	1699.70	79.83%
12	1969-09-14	3.28	Kansas City Chiefs	27	1694.89	55.31%	@ San Diego Chargers	9	1545.76	40.44%
13	1969-11-30	3.10	Oakland Raiders	27	1777.41	50.59%	@ New York Jets	14	1661.49	45.09%
14	1969-09-28	3.08	@ Buffalo Bills	41	1320.14	50.97%	Denver Broncos	28	1395.05	44.71%
15	1969-12-20 *	2.77	Kansas City Chiefs	13	1706.26	42.36%	@ New York Jets	6	1663.02	57.64%
16	1969-10-19	2.76	Denver Broncos	30	1389.54	40.68%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	23	1343.49	55.07%
17	1969-11-23	2.67	@ Boston Patriots	35	1304.52	58.71%	Buffalo Bills	21	1324.36	37.13%
18	1969-09-28	2.60	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1538.05	43.82%	New York Jets	27	1662.92	51.87%
19	1969-09-14	2.48	@ Denver Broncos	35	1390.69	72.14%	Boston Patriots	7	1303.41	24.44%
20	1969-12-06	2.40	New York Jets	34	1658.39	51.32%	@ Houston Oilers	26	1537.39	44.36%
21	1969-11-27	2.32	San Diego Chargers	21	1538.37	34.38%	@ Houston Oilers	17	1539.71	61.57%
22	1969-09-21	2.27	Houston Oilers	17	1539.76	64.52%	@ Buffalo Bills	3	1322.41	31.57%
23	1969-10-11	2.25	San Diego Chargers	21	1541.41	51.05%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1422.30	44.63%
24	1969-12-14	2.24	New York Jets	27	1660.78	68.82%	@ Miami Dolphins	9	1408.75	27.52%
25	1969-09-14	2.19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1335.81	48.80%	Miami Dolphins	21	1425.84	46.87%