Home / Leagues / AFL / 1969

1969 AFL Season

70 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

3rd Title

Last Title: 1966

Runner-Up

Oakland Raiders

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1968

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

2.75 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.75 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Miami Dolphins

1.92 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.42 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Jets Division 10 4 0 .714 353 269 +84 9.13 +0.87
2 Houston Oilers Playoffs 6 6 2 .500 3 278 279 -1 7.92 -0.92
3 Boston Patriots 4 10 0 .286 6 266 316 -50 5.15 -1.15
4 Buffalo Bills 4 10 0 .286 6 230 359 -129 5.42 -1.42
5 Miami Dolphins 3 10 1 .250 6.5 233 332 -99 5.42 -1.92
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Oakland Raiders Division 12 1 1 .893 377 242 +135 9.75 +2.75
2 Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs 11 3 0 .786 1.5 359 177 +182 9.66 +1.34
3 San Diego Chargers 8 6 0 .571 4.5 288 276 +12 7.52 +0.48
4 Denver Broncos 5 8 1 .393 7 297 344 -47 5.74 -0.24
5 Cincinnati Bengals 4 9 1 .321 8 280 367 -87 4.28 +0.22

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Playoffs

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 13
New York Jets 6

Dec 20

Oakland Raiders 56
Houston Oilers 7

Dec 21

AFL Championship Game

Kansas City Chiefs 17
Oakland Raiders 7

Jan 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Oakland Raiders West 1688 12.5 9.75 +2.75 99.75% 4 7 8 10 11 12 14
Kansas City Chiefs West 1675 11 9.66 +1.34 90.60% 3 7 8 9 11 12 14
New York Jets East 1606 10 9.13 +0.87 83.36% 3 6 8 9 10 12 14
San Diego Chargers West 1541 8 7.52 +0.48 76.78% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Houston Oilers East 1518 7 7.92 -0.92 69.31% 2 5 6 8 9 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1434 5.5 5.74 -0.24 73.66% 0 3 4 5 7 8 11
Boston Patriots East 1420 4 5.15 -1.15 42.79% 0 2 4 5 6 8 12
Buffalo Bills East 1395 4 5.42 -1.42 36.17% 0 2 4 5 6 8 11
Miami Dolphins East 1374 3.5 5.42 -1.92 36.24% 0 2 4 5 6 8 12
Cincinnati Bengals West 1349 4.5 4.28 +0.22 83.55% 0 2 3 4 5 7 10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Boston Patriots
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
New York Jets
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Bengals Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers
0-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
New York Jets
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team Bengals Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.3 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
Denver Broncos
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
Denver Broncos
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored
Mean allowed
StdDev scored
StdDev allowed
Correlation (home vs away score)
Sample size (games)

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Oakland Raiders 12.5 9.75 +2.75
2 Kansas City Chiefs 11 9.66 +1.34
3 New York Jets 10 9.13 +0.87
4 San Diego Chargers 8 7.52 +0.48
5 Cincinnati Bengals 4.5 4.28 +0.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Miami Dolphins 3.5 5.42 -1.92
2 Buffalo Bills 4 5.42 -1.42
3 Boston Patriots 4 5.15 -1.15
4 Houston Oilers 7 7.92 -0.92
5 Denver Broncos 5.5 5.74 -0.24

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oakland Raiders 6 Nov 9 – Dec 13 1 in 21
2 Cincinnati Bengals 3 Sep 14 – Sep 28 1 in 21
3 Kansas City Chiefs 7 Oct 5 – Nov 16 1 in 15
4 Boston Patriots 3 Nov 16 – Nov 30 1 in 13
5 San Diego Chargers 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 9

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Boston Patriots 7 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 20
2 Cincinnati Bengals 5 Nov 16 – Dec 14 1 in 8
3 San Diego Chargers 4 Oct 26 – Nov 16 1 in 7
4 Denver Broncos 3 Sep 28 – Oct 12 1 in 5
5 Oakland Raiders 1 Nov 2 – Nov 2 1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team12345
New York Jets63.06%25.32%7.98%2.85%0.79%
Houston Oilers28.77%42.13%17.54%8.08%3.48%
Buffalo Bills2.91%11.61%25.90%30.14%29.44%
Miami Dolphins3.05%11.33%25.80%30.40%29.42%
Boston Patriots2.21%9.61%22.78%28.53%36.87%
Team12345
Oakland Raiders46.76%36.09%13.99%2.88%0.28%
Kansas City Chiefs43.64%37.88%14.77%3.27%0.44%
San Diego Chargers8.18%20.26%45.21%20.48%5.87%
Denver Broncos1.29%4.91%19.63%48.65%25.52%
Cincinnati Bengals0.13%0.86%6.40%24.72%67.89%
Team12345678910
Oakland Raiders34.18%25.47%18.46%11.43%5.91%2.63%1.23%0.54%0.13%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs31.66%25.46%19.06%11.80%6.68%3.30%1.15%0.59%0.26%0.04%
New York Jets21.16%23.36%20.12%14.63%9.94%5.40%3.09%1.42%0.64%0.24%
Houston Oilers6.40%11.68%17.36%20.19%17.00%11.67%7.11%4.66%2.69%1.24%
San Diego Chargers5.14%8.91%13.32%17.92%18.80%14.38%9.65%6.45%3.53%1.90%
Denver Broncos0.56%1.77%3.62%7.33%11.13%15.15%18.12%16.29%15.09%10.94%
Buffalo Bills0.28%1.06%2.63%5.23%9.25%14.54%16.65%18.70%17.77%13.89%
Miami Dolphins0.27%1.16%2.62%5.39%9.72%13.79%17.40%17.39%17.08%15.18%
Boston Patriots0.28%0.89%2.16%4.51%7.89%12.45%14.64%17.33%19.42%20.43%
Cincinnati Bengals0.07%0.24%0.65%1.57%3.68%6.69%10.96%16.63%23.39%36.12%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
New York Jets63.06%36.94%
Houston Oilers28.77%71.23%
Miami Dolphins3.05%96.95%
Buffalo Bills2.91%97.09%
Boston Patriots2.21%97.79%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders46.76%53.24%
Kansas City Chiefs43.64%56.36%
San Diego Chargers8.18%91.82%
Denver Broncos1.29%98.71%
Cincinnati Bengals0.13%99.87%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Oakland Raiders 46.76% 31.51%
Kansas City Chiefs 43.64% 27.89%
New York Jets 63.06% 26.37%
Houston Oilers 28.77% 8.50%
San Diego Chargers 8.18% 3.90%
Miami Dolphins 3.05% 0.55%
Buffalo Bills 2.91% 0.44%
Boston Patriots 2.21% 0.41%
Denver Broncos 1.29% 0.41%
Cincinnati Bengals 0.13% 0.02%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots0.19%0.15%0.07%
Buffalo Bills0.04%0.10%0.24%0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals0.01%0.01%
Denver Broncos0.01%0.01%0.17%0.02%0.20%
Houston Oilers0.03%0.19%3.83%3.44%1.01%
Kansas City Chiefs0.77%0.96%8.92%1.19%16.05%
Miami Dolphins0.01%0.25%0.22%0.07%
New York Jets0.08%0.64%11.38%11.20%3.07%
Oakland Raiders0.88%1.25%10.01%1.07%18.30%
San Diego Chargers0.14%0.25%1.16%0.22%2.13%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders 61.73% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
New York JetsOakland Raiders
New York Jets38.27%
Oakland Raiders61.73%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Oakland Raiders 61.73% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. New York Jets
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
61.73%
New York Jets 38.27% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Oakland Raiders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
38.27%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1969-09-14 @ Denver Broncos L 7-35 1426.73 1441.74 32.50% 63.18% -12.32 0-1
1969-09-21 Kansas City Chiefs L 0-31 1414.41 1625.97 32.11% 63.57% -12.82 0-2
1969-09-28 Oakland Raiders L 23-38 1401.59 1639.87 28.85% 66.84% -8.03 0-3
1969-10-05 New York Jets L 14-23 1393.56 1580.16 35.32% 60.35% -7.58 0-4
1969-10-11 @ Buffalo Bills L 16-23 1385.98 1420.63 30.07% 65.62% -5.71 0-5
1969-10-19 San Diego Chargers L 10-13 1380.27 1536.79 39.38% 56.29% -4.86 0-6
1969-10-26 @ New York Jets L 17-23 1375.41 1602.49 12.45% 83.37% -2.22 0-7
1969-11-02 Houston Oilers W 24-0 1373.19 1538.47 38.18% 57.49% +19.78 1-7
1969-11-09 Miami Dolphins L 16-17 1392.97 1419.93 57.66% 38.01% -4.05 1-8
1969-11-16 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 25-14 1388.92 1380.13 35.58% 60.10% +13.99 2-8
1969-11-23 Buffalo Bills W 35-21 1402.91 1411.31 60.15% 35.53% +9.50 3-8
1969-11-30 @ Miami Dolphins W 38-23 1412.41 1394.08 36.85% 58.83% +16.00 4-8
1969-12-07 @ San Diego Chargers L 18-28 1428.41 1526.65 22.97% 72.75% -5.25 4-9
1969-12-14 @ Houston Oilers L 23-27 1423.16 1514.75 23.66% 72.06% -3.42 4-10
1969-09-14 New York Jets L 19-33 1439.56 1582.89 41.21% 54.46% -10.96 0-1
1969-09-21 Houston Oilers L 3-17 1428.60 1526.31 47.69% 47.97% -12.61 0-2
1969-09-28 Denver Broncos W 41-28 1415.99 1459.43 55.39% 40.28% +10.33 1-2
1969-10-05 @ Houston Oilers L 14-28 1426.32 1544.34 21.02% 74.71% -5.69 1-3
1969-10-11 Boston Patriots W 23-16 1420.63 1385.98 65.62% 30.07% +5.71 2-3
1969-10-19 @ Oakland Raiders L 21-50 1426.34 1654.69 12.37% 83.45% -4.86 2-4
1969-10-26 @ Miami Dolphins L 6-24 1421.48 1411.03 35.80% 59.88% -10.85 2-5
1969-11-02 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-29 1410.63 1651.08 28.60% 67.10% -9.64 2-6
1969-11-09 @ New York Jets L 6-16 1400.99 1606.66 13.86% 81.95% -3.19 2-7
1969-11-16 Miami Dolphins W 28-3 1397.80 1423.98 57.76% 37.91% +13.51 3-7
1969-11-23 @ Boston Patriots L 21-35 1411.31 1402.91 35.53% 60.15% -9.50 3-8
1969-11-30 Cincinnati Bengals W 16-13 1401.81 1360.94 66.37% 29.32% +3.65 4-8
1969-12-07 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 19-22 1405.46 1678.76 9.84% 86.03% -1.24 4-9
1969-12-14 @ San Diego Chargers L 6-45 1404.22 1531.90 20.11% 75.63% -9.10 4-10
1969-09-14 Miami Dolphins W 27-21 1350.51 1436.63 49.36% 46.31% +8.03 1-0
1969-09-21 San Diego Chargers W 34-20 1358.54 1531.49 37.14% 58.53% +15.38 2-0
1969-09-28 Kansas City Chiefs W 24-19 1373.92 1638.79 25.82% 69.89% +10.95 3-0
1969-10-04 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-21 1384.87 1524.43 19.04% 76.71% -3.65 3-1
1969-10-12 New York Jets L 7-21 1381.22 1587.74 32.75% 62.93% -8.78 3-2
1969-10-19 Denver Broncos L 23-30 1372.44 1432.35 53.09% 42.58% -9.88 3-3
1969-10-26 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 22-42 1362.56 1648.07 9.23% 86.65% -3.02 3-4
1969-11-02 Oakland Raiders W 31-17 1359.54 1670.55 21.07% 74.67% +19.59 4-4
1969-11-09 @ Houston Oilers T 31-31 1379.13 1518.68 19.04% 76.71% +1.00 4-4
1969-11-16 Boston Patriots L 14-25 1380.13 1388.92 60.10% 35.58% -13.99 4-5
1969-11-23 @ New York Jets L 7-40 1366.14 1593.90 12.41% 83.41% -5.20 4-6
1969-11-30 @ Buffalo Bills L 13-16 1360.94 1401.81 29.32% 66.37% -3.64 4-7
1969-12-07 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-37 1357.30 1680.74 7.56% 88.36% -2.48 4-8
1969-12-14 @ Denver Broncos L 16-27 1354.82 1428.22 25.60% 70.11% -6.12 4-9
1969-09-14 Boston Patriots W 35-7 1441.74 1426.73 63.18% 32.50% +12.32 1-0
1969-09-21 New York Jets W 21-19 1454.06 1593.85 41.70% 53.97% +5.37 2-0
1969-09-28 @ Buffalo Bills L 28-41 1459.43 1415.99 40.28% 55.39% -10.33 2-1
1969-10-05 Kansas City Chiefs L 13-26 1449.10 1627.83 36.37% 59.31% -9.36 2-2
1969-10-12 Oakland Raiders L 14-24 1439.74 1647.30 32.62% 63.07% -7.39 2-3
1969-10-19 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 30-23 1432.35 1372.44 42.58% 53.09% +9.89 3-3
1969-10-26 @ Houston Oilers L 21-24 1442.24 1535.53 23.48% 72.24% -2.94 3-4
1969-11-02 San Diego Chargers W 13-0 1439.30 1530.65 48.61% 47.06% +12.00 4-4
1969-11-09 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-41 1451.30 1650.96 14.27% 81.52% -5.79 4-5
1969-11-16 Houston Oilers T 20-20 1445.51 1517.68 51.35% 44.31% -0.12 4-5
1969-11-23 @ San Diego Chargers L 24-45 1445.39 1508.95 26.69% 69.01% -8.81 4-6
1969-11-27 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 17-31 1436.58 1675.56 11.73% 84.10% -3.20 4-7
1969-12-07 @ Miami Dolphins L 24-27 1433.38 1378.09 41.93% 53.74% -5.16 4-8
1969-12-14 Cincinnati Bengals W 27-16 1428.22 1354.82 70.11% 25.60% +6.13 5-8
1969-09-14 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-21 1529.53 1634.94 22.25% 73.47% -3.22 0-1
1969-09-21 @ Buffalo Bills W 17-3 1526.31 1428.60 47.97% 47.69% +12.61 1-1
1969-09-28 Miami Dolphins W 22-10 1538.92 1426.89 74.13% 21.60% +5.42 2-1
1969-10-05 Buffalo Bills W 28-14 1544.34 1426.32 74.71% 21.02% +5.69 3-1
1969-10-12 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 0-24 1550.03 1637.20 24.12% 71.60% -8.53 3-2
1969-10-20 @ New York Jets L 17-26 1541.50 1596.51 27.67% 68.03% -5.97 3-3
1969-10-26 Denver Broncos W 24-21 1535.53 1442.24 72.24% 23.48% +2.94 4-3
1969-11-02 @ Boston Patriots L 0-24 1538.47 1373.19 57.49% 38.18% -19.79 4-4
1969-11-09 Cincinnati Bengals T 31-31 1518.68 1379.13 76.71% 19.04% -1.00 4-4
1969-11-16 @ Denver Broncos T 20-20 1517.68 1445.51 44.31% 51.35% +0.12 4-4
1969-11-23 @ Miami Dolphins W 32-7 1517.80 1410.47 49.36% 46.31% +16.39 5-4
1969-11-27 San Diego Chargers L 17-21 1534.19 1517.76 63.36% 32.32% -8.89 5-5
1969-12-06 New York Jets L 26-34 1525.30 1585.92 52.99% 42.68% -10.55 5-6
1969-12-14 Boston Patriots W 27-23 1514.75 1423.16 72.06% 23.66% +3.42 6-6
1969-09-14 @ San Diego Chargers W 27-9 1610.25 1547.22 43.02% 52.65% +15.72 1-0
1969-09-21 @ Boston Patriots W 31-0 1625.97 1414.41 63.57% 32.11% +12.82 2-0
1969-09-28 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 19-24 1638.79 1373.92 69.89% 25.82% -10.96 2-1
1969-10-05 @ Denver Broncos W 26-13 1627.83 1449.10 59.31% 36.37% +9.37 3-1
1969-10-12 Houston Oilers W 24-0 1637.20 1550.03 71.60% 24.12% +8.53 4-1
1969-10-19 Miami Dolphins W 17-10 1645.73 1413.37 83.70% 12.13% +2.34 5-1
1969-10-26 Cincinnati Bengals W 42-22 1648.07 1362.56 86.65% 9.23% +3.01 6-1
1969-11-02 @ Buffalo Bills W 29-7 1651.08 1410.63 67.10% 28.60% +9.65 7-1
1969-11-09 San Diego Chargers W 27-3 1660.73 1518.65 76.93% 18.82% +6.68 8-1
1969-11-16 @ New York Jets W 34-16 1667.41 1609.85 42.25% 53.42% +15.95 9-1
1969-11-23 Oakland Raiders L 24-27 1683.36 1659.75 64.26% 31.43% -7.80 9-2
1969-11-27 Denver Broncos W 31-17 1675.56 1436.58 84.10% 11.73% +3.20 10-2
1969-12-07 Buffalo Bills W 22-19 1678.76 1405.46 86.03% 9.84% +1.24 11-2
1969-12-13 @ Oakland Raiders L 6-10 1680.00 1683.21 34.01% 61.67% -4.87 11-3
1969-09-14 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 21-27 1436.63 1350.51 46.31% 49.36% -8.03 0-1
1969-09-20 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-20 1428.60 1638.16 13.59% 82.21% -1.71 0-2
1969-09-28 @ Houston Oilers L 10-22 1426.89 1538.92 21.60% 74.13% -5.42 0-3
1969-10-04 Oakland Raiders T 20-20 1421.47 1647.91 30.27% 65.41% +0.61 0-3
1969-10-11 San Diego Chargers L 14-21 1422.08 1528.08 46.50% 49.17% -8.71 0-4
1969-10-19 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 10-17 1413.37 1645.73 12.13% 83.70% -2.34 0-5
1969-10-26 Buffalo Bills W 24-6 1411.03 1421.48 59.88% 35.80% +10.86 1-5
1969-11-02 @ New York Jets L 31-34 1421.89 1604.71 15.50% 80.28% -1.96 1-6
1969-11-09 @ Boston Patriots W 17-16 1419.93 1392.97 38.01% 57.66% +4.05 2-6
1969-11-16 @ Buffalo Bills L 3-28 1423.98 1397.80 37.91% 57.76% -13.51 2-7
1969-11-23 Houston Oilers L 7-32 1410.47 1517.80 46.31% 49.36% -16.39 2-8
1969-11-30 Boston Patriots L 23-38 1394.08 1412.41 58.83% 36.85% -15.99 2-9
1969-12-07 Denver Broncos W 27-24 1378.09 1433.38 53.74% 41.93% +5.16 3-9
1969-12-14 New York Jets L 9-27 1383.25 1596.47 31.90% 63.78% -9.71 3-10
1969-09-14 @ Buffalo Bills W 33-19 1582.89 1439.56 54.46% 41.21% +10.96 1-0
1969-09-21 @ Denver Broncos L 19-21 1593.85 1454.06 53.97% 41.70% -5.37 1-1
1969-09-28 @ San Diego Chargers L 27-34 1588.48 1516.12 44.34% 51.32% -8.32 1-2
1969-10-05 @ Boston Patriots W 23-14 1580.16 1393.56 60.35% 35.32% +7.58 2-2
1969-10-12 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 21-7 1587.74 1381.22 62.93% 32.75% +8.77 3-2
1969-10-20 Houston Oilers W 26-17 1596.51 1541.50 68.03% 27.67% +5.98 4-2
1969-10-26 Boston Patriots W 23-17 1602.49 1375.41 83.37% 12.45% +2.22 5-2
1969-11-02 Miami Dolphins W 34-31 1604.71 1421.89 80.28% 15.50% +1.95 6-2
1969-11-09 Buffalo Bills W 16-6 1606.66 1400.99 81.95% 13.86% +3.19 7-2
1969-11-16 Kansas City Chiefs L 16-34 1609.85 1667.41 53.42% 42.25% -15.95 7-3
1969-11-23 Cincinnati Bengals W 40-7 1593.90 1366.14 83.41% 12.41% +5.20 8-3
1969-11-30 Oakland Raiders L 14-27 1599.10 1667.56 51.88% 43.79% -13.18 8-4
1969-12-06 @ Houston Oilers W 34-26 1585.92 1525.30 42.68% 52.99% +10.55 9-4
1969-12-14 @ Miami Dolphins W 27-9 1596.47 1383.25 63.78% 31.90% +9.71 10-4
1969-09-14 Houston Oilers W 21-17 1634.94 1529.53 73.47% 22.25% +3.22 1-0
1969-09-20 Miami Dolphins W 20-17 1638.16 1428.60 82.21% 13.59% +1.71 2-0
1969-09-28 @ Boston Patriots W 38-23 1639.87 1401.59 66.84% 28.85% +8.04 3-0
1969-10-04 @ Miami Dolphins T 20-20 1647.91 1421.47 65.41% 30.27% -0.61 3-0
1969-10-12 @ Denver Broncos W 24-14 1647.30 1439.74 63.07% 32.62% +7.39 4-0
1969-10-19 Buffalo Bills W 50-21 1654.69 1426.34 83.45% 12.37% +4.86 5-0
1969-10-26 @ San Diego Chargers W 24-12 1659.55 1541.65 50.87% 44.80% +11.00 6-0
1969-11-02 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 17-31 1670.55 1359.54 74.67% 21.07% -19.59 6-1
1969-11-09 Denver Broncos W 41-10 1650.96 1451.30 81.52% 14.27% +5.78 7-1
1969-11-16 San Diego Chargers W 21-16 1656.74 1511.97 77.17% 18.58% +3.01 8-1
1969-11-23 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 27-24 1659.75 1683.36 31.43% 64.26% +7.81 9-1
1969-11-30 @ New York Jets W 27-14 1667.56 1599.10 43.79% 51.88% +13.18 10-1
1969-12-07 Cincinnati Bengals W 37-17 1680.74 1357.30 88.36% 7.56% +2.47 11-1
1969-12-13 Kansas City Chiefs W 10-6 1683.21 1680.00 61.67% 34.01% +4.86 12-1
1969-09-14 Kansas City Chiefs L 9-27 1547.22 1610.25 52.65% 43.02% -15.73 0-1
1969-09-21 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 20-34 1531.49 1358.54 58.53% 37.14% -15.37 0-2
1969-09-28 New York Jets W 34-27 1516.12 1588.48 51.32% 44.34% +8.31 1-2
1969-10-04 Cincinnati Bengals W 21-14 1524.43 1384.87 76.71% 19.04% +3.65 2-2
1969-10-11 @ Miami Dolphins W 21-14 1528.08 1422.08 49.17% 46.50% +8.71 3-2
1969-10-19 @ Boston Patriots W 13-10 1536.79 1380.27 56.29% 39.38% +4.86 4-2
1969-10-26 Oakland Raiders L 12-24 1541.65 1659.55 44.80% 50.87% -11.00 4-3
1969-11-02 @ Denver Broncos L 0-13 1530.65 1439.30 47.06% 48.61% -12.00 4-4
1969-11-09 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 3-27 1518.65 1660.73 18.82% 76.93% -6.68 4-5
1969-11-16 @ Oakland Raiders L 16-21 1511.97 1656.74 18.58% 77.17% -3.02 4-6
1969-11-23 Denver Broncos W 45-24 1508.95 1445.39 69.01% 26.69% +8.81 5-6
1969-11-27 @ Houston Oilers W 21-17 1517.76 1534.19 32.32% 63.36% +8.89 6-6
1969-12-07 Boston Patriots W 28-18 1526.65 1428.41 72.75% 22.97% +5.25 7-6
1969-12-14 Buffalo Bills W 45-6 1531.90 1404.22 75.63% 20.11% +9.10 8-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1969-12-21 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-56 1518.17 1688.07 17.73% 82.27% -8.39 0-1
1969-12-20 @ New York Jets W 13-6 1675.13 1606.18 46.01% 53.99% +9.66 1-0
1970-01-04 @ Oakland Raiders W 17-7 1684.79 1696.46 34.89% 65.11% +13.92 2-0
1969-12-20 Kansas City Chiefs L 6-13 1606.18 1675.13 53.99% 46.01% -9.66 0-1
1969-12-21 Houston Oilers W 56-7 1688.07 1518.17 82.27% 17.73% +8.39 1-0
1970-01-04 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-17 1696.46 1684.79 65.11% 34.89% -13.92 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1969-11-02 21.07% @ Cincinnati Bengals 1359.54 31 Oakland Raiders 1670.55 17
2 1969-09-28 25.82% @ Cincinnati Bengals 1373.92 24 Kansas City Chiefs 1638.79 19
3 1969-11-23 31.43% Oakland Raiders 1659.75 27 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1683.36 24
4 1969-11-27 32.32% San Diego Chargers 1517.76 21 @ Houston Oilers 1534.19 17
5 1970-01-04 * 34.89% Kansas City Chiefs 1684.79 17 @ Oakland Raiders 1696.46 7
6 1969-11-16 35.58% Boston Patriots 1388.92 25 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1380.13 14
7 1969-11-30 36.85% Boston Patriots 1412.41 38 @ Miami Dolphins 1394.08 23
8 1969-09-21 37.14% @ Cincinnati Bengals 1358.54 34 San Diego Chargers 1531.49 20
9 1969-11-09 38.01% Miami Dolphins 1419.93 17 @ Boston Patriots 1392.97 16
10 1969-11-02 38.18% @ Boston Patriots 1373.19 24 Houston Oilers 1538.47 0
11 1969-09-21 41.70% @ Denver Broncos 1454.06 21 New York Jets 1593.85 19
12 1969-11-16 42.25% Kansas City Chiefs 1667.41 34 @ New York Jets 1609.85 16
13 1969-10-19 42.58% Denver Broncos 1432.35 30 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1372.44 23
14 1969-12-06 42.68% New York Jets 1585.92 34 @ Houston Oilers 1525.30 26
15 1969-09-14 43.02% Kansas City Chiefs 1610.25 27 @ San Diego Chargers 1547.22 9
16 1969-11-30 43.79% Oakland Raiders 1667.56 27 @ New York Jets 1599.10 14
17 1969-12-20 * 46.01% Kansas City Chiefs 1675.13 13 @ New York Jets 1606.18 6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-11-02 19.79 @ Boston Patriots 24 1373.19 38.18% Houston Oilers 0 1538.47 57.49%
2 1969-11-02 19.59 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31 1359.54 21.07% Oakland Raiders 17 1670.55 74.67%
3 1969-11-23 16.39 Houston Oilers 32 1517.80 49.36% @ Miami Dolphins 7 1410.47 46.31%
4 1969-11-30 16.00 Boston Patriots 38 1412.41 36.85% @ Miami Dolphins 23 1394.08 58.83%
5 1969-11-16 15.95 Kansas City Chiefs 34 1667.41 42.25% @ New York Jets 16 1609.85 53.42%
6 1969-09-14 15.73 Kansas City Chiefs 27 1610.25 43.02% @ San Diego Chargers 9 1547.22 52.65%
7 1969-09-21 15.38 @ Cincinnati Bengals 34 1358.54 37.14% San Diego Chargers 20 1531.49 58.53%
8 1969-11-16 13.99 Boston Patriots 25 1388.92 35.58% @ Cincinnati Bengals 14 1380.13 60.10%
9 1970-01-04 * 13.92 Kansas City Chiefs 17 1684.79 34.89% @ Oakland Raiders 7 1696.46 65.11%
10 1969-11-16 13.51 @ Buffalo Bills 28 1397.80 57.76% Miami Dolphins 3 1423.98 37.91%
11 1969-11-30 13.18 Oakland Raiders 27 1667.56 43.79% @ New York Jets 14 1599.10 51.88%
12 1969-09-21 12.82 Kansas City Chiefs 31 1625.97 63.57% @ Boston Patriots 0 1414.41 32.11%
13 1969-09-21 12.61 Houston Oilers 17 1526.31 47.97% @ Buffalo Bills 3 1428.60 47.69%
14 1969-09-14 12.32 @ Denver Broncos 35 1441.74 63.18% Boston Patriots 7 1426.73 32.50%
15 1969-11-02 12.00 @ Denver Broncos 13 1439.30 48.61% San Diego Chargers 0 1530.65 47.06%
16 1969-10-26 11.00 Oakland Raiders 24 1659.55 50.87% @ San Diego Chargers 12 1541.65 44.80%
17 1969-09-14 10.96 New York Jets 33 1582.89 54.46% @ Buffalo Bills 19 1439.56 41.21%
18 1969-09-28 10.96 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24 1373.92 25.82% Kansas City Chiefs 19 1638.79 69.89%
19 1969-10-26 10.86 @ Miami Dolphins 24 1411.03 59.88% Buffalo Bills 6 1421.48 35.80%
20 1969-12-06 10.55 New York Jets 34 1585.92 42.68% @ Houston Oilers 26 1525.30 52.99%
21 1969-09-28 10.33 @ Buffalo Bills 41 1415.99 55.39% Denver Broncos 28 1459.43 40.28%
22 1969-10-19 9.89 Denver Broncos 30 1432.35 42.58% @ Cincinnati Bengals 23 1372.44 53.09%
23 1969-12-14 9.71 New York Jets 27 1596.47 63.78% @ Miami Dolphins 9 1383.25 31.90%
24 1969-12-20 * 9.66 Kansas City Chiefs 13 1675.13 46.01% @ New York Jets 6 1606.18 53.99%
25 1969-11-02 9.65 Kansas City Chiefs 29 1651.08 67.10% @ Buffalo Bills 7 1410.63 28.60%