1967 AFL Season

63 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

1st Title

Runner-Up

Houston Oilers

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1962

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

2.43 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.57 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Boston Patriots

1.98 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.48 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	9	4	1	.679	-	258	199	+59	7.96	+1.54
2	New York Jets	8	5	1	.607	1	371	329	+42	8.39	+0.11
3	Buffalo Bills	4	10	0	.286	5.5	237	285	-48	5.78	-1.78
4	Miami Dolphins	4	10	0	.286	5.5	219	407	-188	3.55	+0.45
5	Boston Patriots	3	10	1	.250	6	280	389	-109	5.48	-1.98

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	13	1	0	.929	-	468	233	+235	10.57	+2.43
2	Kansas City Chiefs	9	5	0	.643	4	408	254	+154	9.05	-0.05
3	San Diego Chargers	8	5	1	.607	4.5	360	352	+8	8.96	-0.46
4	Denver Broncos	3	11	0	.214	10	256	409	-153	3.25	-0.25

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Oakland Raiders 40

Houston Oilers 7

Dec 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Oakland Raiders	West	1968	13	10.57	+2.43	98.88%	4	8	9	10	11	13	14
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1726	9	9.05	-0.05	64.83%	1	6	8	9	10	11	14
Houston Oilers	East	1650	9.5	7.96	+1.54	95.96%	1	5	7	8	9	10	14
New York Jets	East	1535	8.5	8.39	+0.11	79.25%	2	6	7	8	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1400	4	5.78	-1.78	24.47%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
San Diego Chargers	West	1390	8.5	8.96	-0.46	67.97%	1	6	8	9	10	11	14
Miami Dolphins	East	1322	4	3.55	+0.45	78.64%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Denver Broncos	West	1305	3	3.25	-0.25	62.98%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Boston Patriots	East	1204	3.5	5.48	-1.98	33.88%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Dolphins	Jets
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.38%	0.79%	3.17%	—	0.79%	0.79%	7.94%
7–13	2.38%	—	2.38%	1.59%	1.59%	3.17%	1.59%	12.70%
14–20	0.79%	2.38%	9.52%	6.35%	2.38%	0.79%	2.38%	24.60%
21–27	3.17%	1.59%	6.35%	3.17%	3.17%	4.76%	0.79%	23.02%
28–34	—	1.59%	2.38%	3.17%	3.17%	1.59%	1.59%	13.49%
35–41	0.79%	3.17%	0.79%	4.76%	1.59%	—	—	11.11%
42+	0.79%	1.59%	2.38%	0.79%	1.59%	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.94%	12.70%	24.60%	23.02%	13.49%	11.11%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.67	22.67	+0.00
SD	12.05	12.05	18.78
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	52	52	+51
Min	0	0	-51

Games Played: 63

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	27.79	-7.79
SD	9.99	13.77	19.28
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	41	48	+31
Min	6	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	42.86%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.93	20.36	-3.43
SD	11.93	6.71	14.29
CV	0.70	0.33	—
Max	44	37	+28
Min	0	10	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	—	28.57%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	29.21	-10.93
SD	8.53	12.82	17.13
CV	0.47	0.44	—
Max	33	52	+9
Min	0	10	-51

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	14.21	+4.21
SD	10.33	7.82	12.35
CV	0.56	0.55	—
Max	41	28	+31
Min	3	3	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	42.86%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	14.29%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.14	18.14	+11.00
SD	10.62	13.72	19.10
CV	0.36	0.76	—
Max	52	45	+43
Min	16	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	28.57%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.64	29.07	-13.43
SD	14.00	8.79	18.27
CV	0.90	0.30	—
Max	41	41	+17
Min	0	14	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.50	23.50	+3.00
SD	8.94	10.28	13.36
CV	0.34	0.44	—
Max	42	42	+22
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	33.43	16.64	+16.79
SD	12.39	8.19	17.18
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	51	29	+51
Min	14	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.71	25.14	+0.57
SD	10.01	15.10	18.21
CV	0.39	0.60	—
Max	45	51	+24
Min	10	0	-41

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+0.3
Allowed	0.58	-0.3
Differential	0.88	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	13	10.57	+2.43
2	Houston Oilers	9.5	7.96	+1.54
3	Miami Dolphins	4	3.55	+0.45
4	New York Jets	8.5	8.39	+0.11
5	Kansas City Chiefs	9	9.05	-0.05

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Boston Patriots	3.5	5.48	-1.98
2	Buffalo Bills	4	5.78	-1.78
3	San Diego Chargers	8.5	8.96	-0.46
4	Denver Broncos	3	3.25	-0.25
5	Kansas City Chiefs	9	9.05	-0.05

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	2	Dec 10 – Dec 17	1 in 15
2	Oakland Raiders	10	Oct 15 – Dec 24	1 in 14
3	New York Jets	3	Sep 24 – Oct 7	1 in 6
4	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Oct 29 – Nov 12	1 in 5
5	San Diego Chargers	3	Sep 9 – Oct 1	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	4	Dec 3 – Dec 24	1 in 49
2	New York Jets	3	Dec 3 – Dec 17	1 in 25
3	Denver Broncos	9	Sep 10 – Nov 12	1 in 21
4	Boston Patriots	5	Nov 12 – Dec 17	1 in 19
5	Buffalo Bills	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Jets	53.12%	30.28%	11.79%	4.14%	0.68%
Houston Oilers	35.38%	40.26%	16.73%	6.44%	1.19%
Buffalo Bills	5.96%	15.24%	34.70%	31.44%	12.67%
Boston Patriots	5.18%	12.51%	28.80%	35.97%	17.54%
Miami Dolphins	0.36%	1.70%	7.98%	22.02%	67.93%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	61.31%	26.64%	11.98%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.77%	37.41%	41.09%	0.72%
San Diego Chargers	17.91%	35.85%	45.69%	0.55%
Denver Broncos	<0.01%	0.09%	1.24%	98.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Oakland Raiders	54.69%	23.62%	12.05%	6.08%	2.63%	0.76%	0.14%	0.01%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.56%	23.80%	21.09%	17.20%	12.90%	5.24%	1.75%	0.39%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	14.67%	21.80%	22.46%	19.13%	13.91%	5.81%	1.86%	0.31%	0.04%
New York Jets	7.88%	16.47%	21.19%	22.19%	17.87%	9.50%	3.79%	0.93%	0.18%
Houston Oilers	4.59%	11.99%	17.18%	21.65%	23.32%	13.41%	5.94%	1.57%	0.34%
Buffalo Bills	0.22%	0.98%	2.84%	6.92%	14.38%	29.52%	26.50%	12.94%	5.70%
Boston Patriots	0.39%	1.27%	2.94%	5.88%	11.69%	23.63%	29.19%	16.76%	8.23%
Miami Dolphins	<0.01%	0.03%	0.17%	0.59%	1.96%	7.00%	17.04%	35.35%	37.85%
Denver Broncos	<0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.35%	1.35%	5.13%	13.78%	31.72%	47.57%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Jets	53.12%	46.88%
Houston Oilers	35.38%	64.62%
Buffalo Bills	5.96%	94.04%
Boston Patriots	5.18%	94.82%
Miami Dolphins	0.36%	99.64%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders	61.31%	38.69%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.77%	79.23%
San Diego Chargers	17.91%	82.08%
Denver Broncos	<0.01%	100.00%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+11.11%

Fortress

53.97%3.17%42.86%

Elo Value

Home Edge

33 Elo

0.030 points per Elo point

038.76100

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.62 points

Lean Home

-8+1.16+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.8

Few Contenders

12489

Champion Preseason Odds

56%

Oakland Raiders, 1st of 9

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

86.4%

Favored

050.00%150%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.26 · As Expected: 1.26 to 1.74 · Elevated: 1.74 to 2.37 · High Variance: 2.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.92 · Close: 0.92 to 1.24 · Off Target: 1.24 to 1.62 · Well Off Target: 1.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.45 · As Expected: 0.45 to 1.08 · Several Outliers: 1.08 to 1.98 · Many Outliers: 1.98 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.64 · As Expected: 0.64 to 1.07 · More Than Expected: 1.07 to 1.71 · Far More Than Expected: 1.71 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.31 wins

As Expected

01.584

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.89

Pinpoint

01.082.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 94.44%

98.88%

Oakland Raiders

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

24.47%

Buffalo Bills

05.56%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 9

Many Outliers

00.99

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.38

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

87%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

16%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

38%

Routine

0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.17

Highly Predictable

00.171

Matchup Imbalance

0.48

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.77

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.24

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalk Held

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.38 · Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.

Probability calibration

0.22

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.153

Within Noise

00.1900.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Oakland Raiders	61.31%	55.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.77%	14.92%
New York Jets	53.12%	12.25%
Houston Oilers	35.38%	10.61%
San Diego Chargers	17.91%	5.27%
Buffalo Bills	5.96%	0.89%
Boston Patriots	5.18%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	0.36%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	<0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets
Boston Patriots	0.0%<0.01%	5.1%1.21%	1.1%3.06%	25.0%0.91%
Buffalo Bills		12.7%1.46%	2.9%3.36%	52.7%1.14%
Houston Oilers		39.0%7.15%	13.6%22.43%	82.1%5.80%
Miami Dolphins		10.3%0.06%	3.0%0.24%	26.9%0.07%
New York Jets	100.0%<0.01%	25.7%10.89%	7.5%32.23%	70.4%10.00%
Denver Broncos					100.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs					94.9%1.21%	87.3%1.46%	61.0%7.15%	89.7%0.06%	74.3%10.89%
Oakland Raiders					98.9%3.06%	97.1%3.36%	86.4%22.43%	97.0%0.24%	92.5%32.23%
San Diego Chargers					75.0%0.91%	47.3%1.14%	17.9%5.80%	73.1%0.07%	29.6%10.00%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders	86.36%	Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers	13.64%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Oakland Raiders	Houston Oilers
Houston Oilers	13.6%100.00%
Oakland Raiders		86.4%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Oakland Raiders 86.36% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

86.36%

Houston Oilers 13.64% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

13.64%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1967-09-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-26	1519.97	1448.79	52.71%	43.43%	-45.20	0-1
1967-09-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-28	1474.77	1540.77	33.72%	62.68%	-48.95	0-2
1967-09-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-35	1425.82	1632.87	18.73%	78.69%	-38.25	0-3
1967-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-0	1387.57	1468.82	31.82%	64.67%	+118.17	1-3
1967-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	T 31-31	1505.74	1667.64	22.89%	74.18%	+4.82	1-3
1967-10-15	Miami Dolphins	W 41-10	1510.56	1303.66	78.67%	18.75%	+40.28	2-3
1967-10-22	Oakland Raiders	L 14-48	1550.84	1625.31	42.97%	53.17%	-96.80	2-4
1967-10-29	@ New York Jets	L 23-30	1454.04	1666.25	18.30%	79.17%	-18.67	2-5
1967-11-05	Houston Oilers	W 18-7	1435.37	1592.24	32.06%	64.42%	+81.42	3-5
1967-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-33	1516.79	1683.03	30.92%	65.62%	-57.54	3-6
1967-11-19	New York Jets	L 24-29	1459.25	1598.52	34.26%	62.12%	-29.71	3-7
1967-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-27	1429.54	1520.04	30.70%	65.84%	-54.60	3-8
1967-12-09	Buffalo Bills	L 16-44	1374.94	1265.68	68.17%	28.51%	-137.21	3-9
1967-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 32-41	1237.73	1342.06	29.07%	67.57%	-33.84	3-10
1967-09-10	New York Jets	W 20-17	1558.75	1498.88	61.87%	34.50%	+23.18	1-0
1967-09-17	Houston Oilers	L 3-20	1581.93	1437.55	72.26%	24.66%	-113.11	1-1
1967-09-24	Boston Patriots	L 0-23	1468.82	1387.57	64.67%	31.82%	-118.17	1-2
1967-10-01	San Diego Chargers	L 17-37	1350.65	1635.32	18.73%	78.70%	-32.32	1-3
1967-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1318.33	1264.46	50.23%	45.89%	+17.69	2-3
1967-10-15	Oakland Raiders	L 20-24	1336.02	1610.13	19.64%	77.70%	-15.17	2-4
1967-10-29	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-10	1320.85	1577.10	14.90%	82.92%	-15.14	2-5
1967-11-05	Miami Dolphins	W 35-13	1305.71	1243.88	62.13%	34.25%	+62.31	3-5
1967-11-12	@ New York Jets	L 10-20	1368.02	1575.72	18.68%	78.75%	-22.79	3-6
1967-11-19	Denver Broncos	L 20-21	1345.23	1195.00	72.91%	24.06%	-27.67	3-7
1967-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1317.56	1168.58	63.40%	33.04%	-41.87	3-8
1967-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-23	1275.69	1648.46	8.34%	90.29%	-10.01	3-9
1967-12-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 44-16	1265.68	1374.94	28.51%	68.17%	+137.21	4-9
1967-12-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-28	1402.89	1965.49	3.01%	96.43%	-2.98	4-10
1967-09-03	Boston Patriots	W 26-21	1448.79	1519.97	43.43%	52.71%	+45.20	1-0
1967-09-10	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-51	1493.99	1528.09	37.87%	58.38%	-104.78	1-1
1967-09-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-35	1389.21	1377.06	44.25%	51.88%	-63.91	1-2
1967-09-24	New York Jets	L 24-38	1325.30	1475.71	32.86%	63.59%	-47.70	1-3
1967-10-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-10	1277.60	1505.05	17.06%	80.53%	-13.14	1-4
1967-10-08	Buffalo Bills	L 16-17	1264.46	1318.33	45.89%	50.23%	-17.70	1-5
1967-10-22	San Diego Chargers	L 21-38	1246.76	1723.95	7.25%	91.53%	-11.31	1-6
1967-10-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-52	1235.45	1545.06	11.49%	86.73%	-28.78	1-7
1967-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1206.67	1831.82	3.27%	96.13%	-2.45	1-8
1967-11-12	Houston Oilers	L 18-20	1204.22	1510.82	16.93%	80.67%	-9.22	1-9
1967-11-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-20	1195.00	1345.23	24.06%	72.91%	+27.67	2-9
1967-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1222.67	1661.86	5.89%	93.10%	-4.44	2-10
1967-12-03	@ New York Jets	W 33-24	1218.23	1628.23	6.87%	91.97%	+103.18	3-10
1967-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-38	1321.41	1709.27	11.45%	86.77%	-16.36	3-11
1967-09-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-25	1474.08	1553.62	42.26%	53.89%	-36.53	0-1
1967-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1437.55	1581.93	24.66%	72.26%	+113.10	1-1
1967-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-13	1550.65	1589.72	37.21%	59.06%	-45.60	1-2
1967-10-01	Denver Broncos	W 10-6	1505.05	1277.60	80.53%	17.06%	+13.15	2-2
1967-10-15	@ New York Jets	T 28-28	1518.20	1650.98	25.89%	70.95%	+4.22	2-2
1967-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-19	1522.42	1599.74	32.31%	64.16%	+54.68	3-2
1967-10-29	Buffalo Bills	W 10-3	1577.10	1320.85	82.92%	14.90%	+15.14	4-2
1967-11-05	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-18	1592.24	1435.37	64.42%	32.06%	-81.42	4-3
1967-11-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-18	1510.82	1204.22	80.67%	16.93%	+9.22	5-3
1967-11-26	Boston Patriots	W 27-6	1520.04	1429.54	65.84%	30.70%	+54.60	6-3
1967-12-03	Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1574.64	1210.45	89.86%	8.72%	+5.73	7-3
1967-12-10	Oakland Raiders	L 7-19	1580.37	1943.15	12.95%	85.08%	-17.18	7-4
1967-12-16	San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1563.19	1488.86	63.77%	32.68%	+33.55	8-4
1967-12-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-10	1596.74	1375.90	72.14%	24.77%	+53.46	9-4
1967-09-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 25-20	1553.62	1474.08	53.89%	42.26%	+36.52	1-0
1967-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-0	1590.14	1440.97	63.43%	33.01%	+62.75	2-0
1967-10-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-23	1652.89	1671.12	40.02%	56.18%	-21.91	2-1
1967-10-08	Miami Dolphins	W 41-0	1630.98	1333.54	85.93%	12.20%	+29.89	3-1
1967-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 31-45	1660.87	1662.82	42.27%	53.88%	-61.13	3-2
1967-10-22	Houston Oilers	L 19-24	1599.74	1522.42	64.16%	32.31%	-54.68	3-3
1967-10-29	Denver Broncos	W 52-9	1545.06	1235.45	86.73%	11.49%	+28.77	4-3
1967-11-05	New York Jets	W 42-18	1573.83	1684.92	37.94%	58.31%	+109.20	5-3
1967-11-12	@ Boston Patriots	W 33-10	1683.03	1516.79	65.62%	30.92%	+57.54	6-3
1967-11-19	San Diego Chargers	L 16-17	1740.57	1636.15	67.58%	29.06%	-25.71	6-4
1967-11-23	Oakland Raiders	L 22-44	1714.86	1836.66	36.52%	59.78%	-66.40	6-5
1967-12-03	Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1648.46	1275.69	90.29%	8.34%	+10.01	7-5
1967-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 21-7	1658.47	1525.05	61.34%	35.01%	+50.80	8-5
1967-12-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-24	1709.27	1321.41	86.77%	11.45%	+16.36	9-5
1967-09-17	Denver Broncos	W 35-21	1377.06	1389.21	51.88%	44.25%	+63.91	1-0
1967-09-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-24	1440.97	1590.14	33.01%	63.43%	-62.75	1-1
1967-10-01	@ New York Jets	L 7-29	1378.22	1523.41	24.58%	72.35%	-44.68	1-2
1967-10-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-41	1333.54	1630.98	12.20%	85.93%	-29.88	1-3
1967-10-15	@ Boston Patriots	L 10-41	1303.66	1510.56	18.75%	78.67%	-40.28	1-4
1967-10-22	New York Jets	L 14-33	1263.38	1646.75	11.71%	86.48%	-19.50	1-5
1967-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-35	1243.88	1305.71	34.25%	62.13%	-62.31	1-6
1967-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-24	1181.57	1625.55	5.74%	93.27%	-10.60	1-7
1967-11-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-31	1170.97	1834.27	1.72%	97.95%	-2.39	1-8
1967-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1168.58	1317.56	33.04%	63.40%	+41.87	2-8
1967-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-17	1210.45	1574.64	8.72%	89.86%	-5.73	2-9
1967-12-10	San Diego Chargers	W 41-24	1204.72	1626.21	9.67%	88.78%	+137.34	3-9
1967-12-17	Boston Patriots	W 41-32	1342.06	1237.73	67.57%	29.07%	+33.84	4-9
1967-12-23	Houston Oilers	L 10-41	1375.90	1596.74	24.77%	72.14%	-53.46	4-10
1967-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1498.88	1558.75	34.50%	61.87%	-23.17	0-1
1967-09-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-24	1475.71	1325.30	63.59%	32.86%	+47.70	1-1
1967-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 29-7	1523.41	1378.22	72.35%	24.58%	+44.68	2-1
1967-10-07	Oakland Raiders	W 27-14	1568.09	1693.03	36.11%	60.20%	+82.89	3-1
1967-10-15	Houston Oilers	T 28-28	1650.98	1518.20	70.95%	25.89%	-4.23	3-1
1967-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-14	1646.75	1263.38	86.48%	11.71%	+19.50	4-1
1967-10-29	Boston Patriots	W 30-23	1666.25	1454.04	79.17%	18.30%	+18.67	5-1
1967-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 18-42	1684.92	1573.83	58.31%	37.94%	-109.20	5-2
1967-11-12	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1575.72	1368.02	78.75%	18.68%	+22.80	6-2
1967-11-19	@ Boston Patriots	W 29-24	1598.52	1459.25	62.12%	34.26%	+29.71	7-2
1967-12-03	Denver Broncos	L 24-33	1628.23	1218.23	91.97%	6.87%	-103.18	7-3
1967-12-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-21	1525.05	1658.47	35.01%	61.34%	-50.80	7-4
1967-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 29-38	1474.25	1960.33	4.58%	94.61%	-5.15	7-5
1967-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-31	1469.10	1455.32	44.48%	51.64%	+65.74	8-5
1967-09-10	Denver Broncos	W 51-0	1528.09	1493.99	58.38%	37.87%	+104.78	1-0
1967-09-17	Boston Patriots	W 35-7	1632.87	1425.82	78.69%	18.73%	+38.25	2-0
1967-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-21	1671.12	1652.89	56.18%	40.02%	+21.91	3-0
1967-10-07	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1693.03	1568.09	60.20%	36.11%	-82.90	3-1
1967-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-20	1610.13	1336.02	77.70%	19.64%	+15.18	4-1
1967-10-22	@ Boston Patriots	W 48-14	1625.31	1550.84	53.17%	42.97%	+96.79	5-1
1967-10-29	San Diego Chargers	W 51-10	1722.10	1735.27	51.73%	44.40%	+109.72	6-1
1967-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 21-17	1831.82	1206.67	96.13%	3.27%	+2.45	7-1
1967-11-19	Miami Dolphins	W 31-17	1834.27	1170.97	97.95%	1.72%	+2.39	8-1
1967-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-22	1836.66	1714.86	59.78%	36.52%	+66.40	9-1
1967-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-21	1903.06	1666.30	73.89%	23.15%	+40.09	10-1
1967-12-10	@ Houston Oilers	W 19-7	1943.15	1580.37	85.08%	12.95%	+17.18	11-1
1967-12-17	New York Jets	W 38-29	1960.33	1474.25	94.61%	4.58%	+5.16	12-1
1967-12-24	Buffalo Bills	W 28-21	1965.49	1402.89	96.43%	3.01%	+2.98	13-1
1967-09-09	Boston Patriots	W 28-14	1540.77	1474.77	62.68%	33.72%	+48.95	1-0
1967-09-24	Houston Oilers	W 13-3	1589.72	1550.65	59.06%	37.21%	+45.60	2-0
1967-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-17	1635.32	1350.65	78.70%	18.73%	+32.32	3-0
1967-10-08	Boston Patriots	T 31-31	1667.64	1505.74	74.18%	22.89%	-4.82	3-0
1967-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-31	1662.82	1660.87	53.88%	42.27%	+61.13	4-0
1967-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-21	1723.95	1246.76	91.53%	7.25%	+11.32	5-0
1967-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-51	1735.27	1722.10	44.40%	51.73%	-109.72	5-1
1967-11-12	Miami Dolphins	W 24-0	1625.55	1181.57	93.27%	5.74%	+10.60	6-1
1967-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1636.15	1740.57	29.06%	67.58%	+25.71	7-1
1967-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 24-20	1661.86	1222.67	93.10%	5.89%	+4.44	8-1
1967-12-03	Oakland Raiders	L 21-41	1666.30	1903.06	23.15%	73.89%	-40.09	8-2
1967-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-41	1626.21	1204.72	88.78%	9.67%	-137.35	8-3
1967-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-24	1488.86	1563.19	32.68%	63.77%	-33.54	8-4
1967-12-24	New York Jets	L 31-42	1455.32	1469.10	51.64%	44.48%	-65.75	8-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1967-12-31	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-40	1650.20	1968.47	11.35%	88.65%	-24.12	0-1
1967-12-31	Houston Oilers	W 40-7	1968.47	1650.20	88.65%	11.35%	+24.12	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1967-12-03	6.87%	Denver Broncos	1218.23	33	@ New York Jets	1628.23	24
2	1967-12-10	9.67%	@ Miami Dolphins	1204.72	41	San Diego Chargers	1626.21	24
3	1967-11-19	24.06%	Denver Broncos	1195.00	21	@ Buffalo Bills	1345.23	20
4	1967-09-17	24.66%	Houston Oilers	1437.55	20	@ Buffalo Bills	1581.93	3
5	1967-12-09	28.51%	Buffalo Bills	1265.68	44	@ Boston Patriots	1374.94	16
6	1967-11-19	29.06%	San Diego Chargers	1636.15	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1740.57	16
7	1967-09-24	31.82%	Boston Patriots	1387.57	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1468.82	0
8	1967-11-05	32.06%	@ Boston Patriots	1435.37	18	Houston Oilers	1592.24	7
9	1967-10-22	32.31%	Houston Oilers	1522.42	24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1599.74	19
10	1967-11-26	33.04%	@ Miami Dolphins	1168.58	17	Buffalo Bills	1317.56	14
11	1967-10-07	36.11%	@ New York Jets	1568.09	27	Oakland Raiders	1693.03	14
12	1967-11-05	37.94%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1573.83	42	New York Jets	1684.92	18
13	1967-09-03	43.43%	@ Denver Broncos	1448.79	26	Boston Patriots	1519.97	21
14	1967-12-24	44.48%	New York Jets	1469.10	42	@ San Diego Chargers	1455.32	31

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1967-12-10	137.35	@ Miami Dolphins	41	1204.72	9.67%	San Diego Chargers	24	1626.21	88.78%
2	1967-12-09	137.21	Buffalo Bills	44	1265.68	28.51%	@ Boston Patriots	16	1374.94	68.17%
3	1967-09-24	118.17	Boston Patriots	23	1387.57	31.82%	@ Buffalo Bills	0	1468.82	64.67%
4	1967-09-17	113.11	Houston Oilers	20	1437.55	24.66%	@ Buffalo Bills	3	1581.93	72.26%
5	1967-10-29	109.72	@ Oakland Raiders	51	1722.10	51.73%	San Diego Chargers	10	1735.27	44.40%
6	1967-11-05	109.20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	42	1573.83	37.94%	New York Jets	18	1684.92	58.31%
7	1967-09-10	104.78	@ Oakland Raiders	51	1528.09	58.38%	Denver Broncos	0	1493.99	37.87%
8	1967-12-03	103.18	Denver Broncos	33	1218.23	6.87%	@ New York Jets	24	1628.23	91.97%
9	1967-10-22	96.80	Oakland Raiders	48	1625.31	53.17%	@ Boston Patriots	14	1550.84	42.97%
10	1967-10-07	82.90	@ New York Jets	27	1568.09	36.11%	Oakland Raiders	14	1693.03	60.20%
11	1967-11-05	81.42	@ Boston Patriots	18	1435.37	32.06%	Houston Oilers	7	1592.24	64.42%
12	1967-11-23	66.40	Oakland Raiders	44	1836.66	59.78%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	22	1714.86	36.52%
13	1967-12-24	65.75	New York Jets	42	1469.10	44.48%	@ San Diego Chargers	31	1455.32	51.64%
14	1967-09-17	63.91	@ Miami Dolphins	35	1377.06	51.88%	Denver Broncos	21	1389.21	44.25%
15	1967-09-24	62.75	Kansas City Chiefs	24	1590.14	63.43%	@ Miami Dolphins	0	1440.97	33.01%
16	1967-11-05	62.31	@ Buffalo Bills	35	1305.71	62.13%	Miami Dolphins	13	1243.88	34.25%
17	1967-10-15	61.13	@ San Diego Chargers	45	1662.82	53.88%	Kansas City Chiefs	31	1660.87	42.27%
18	1967-11-12	57.54	Kansas City Chiefs	33	1683.03	65.62%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1516.79	30.92%
19	1967-10-22	54.68	Houston Oilers	24	1522.42	32.31%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	19	1599.74	64.16%
20	1967-11-26	54.60	@ Houston Oilers	27	1520.04	65.84%	Boston Patriots	6	1429.54	30.70%
21	1967-12-23	53.46	Houston Oilers	41	1596.74	72.14%	@ Miami Dolphins	10	1375.90	24.77%
22	1967-12-10	50.80	Kansas City Chiefs	21	1658.47	61.34%	@ New York Jets	7	1525.05	35.01%
23	1967-09-09	48.95	@ San Diego Chargers	28	1540.77	62.68%	Boston Patriots	14	1474.77	33.72%
24	1967-09-24	47.70	New York Jets	38	1475.71	63.59%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1325.30	32.86%
25	1967-09-24	45.60	@ San Diego Chargers	13	1589.72	59.06%	Houston Oilers	3	1550.65	37.21%