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1967 AFL Season

63 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

1st Title

Runner-Up

Houston Oilers

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1962

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

4.81 wins above expected

13 wins · 8.19 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

3.44 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.44 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Houston Oilers Division 9 4 1 .679 — 258 199 +59 7.01 +2.49
2 New York Jets 8 5 1 .607 1 371 329 +42 7.48 +1.02
3 Buffalo Bills 4 10 0 .286 5.5 237 285 -48 7.44 -3.44
4 Miami Dolphins 4 10 0 .286 5.5 219 407 -188 4.11 -0.11
5 Boston Patriots 3 10 1 .250 6 280 389 -109 6.88 -3.38
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Oakland Raiders Division 13 1 0 .929 — 468 233 +235 8.19 +4.81
2 Kansas City Chiefs 9 5 0 .643 4 408 254 +154 8.41 +0.59
3 San Diego Chargers 8 5 1 .607 4.5 360 352 +8 8.22 +0.28
4 Denver Broncos 3 11 0 .214 10 256 409 -153 5.26 -2.26

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Oakland Raiders 40
Houston Oilers 7

Dec 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Oakland Raiders West 1625 13 8.19 +4.81 99.99% 1 5 7 8 9 11 14
Kansas City Chiefs West 1588 9 8.41 +0.59 76.52% 1 5 7 8 9 11 14
San Diego Chargers West 1525 8.5 8.22 +0.28 80.73% 1 5 7 8 9 11 14
New York Jets East 1525 8.5 7.48 +1.02 89.89% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14
Houston Oilers East 1519 9.5 7.01 +2.49 98.40% 0 4 6 7 8 10 14
Buffalo Bills East 1494 4 7.44 -3.44 6.45% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Boston Patriots East 1456 3.5 6.88 -3.38 12.43% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1412 3 5.26 -2.26 20.42% 0 2 4 5 6 8 13
Miami Dolphins East 1356 4 4.11 -0.11 66.09% 0 1 3 4 5 7 11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Boston Patriots —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
New York Jets
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
 —
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Dolphins Jets
Denver Broncos
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Oakland Raiders 13 8.19 +4.81
2 Houston Oilers 9.5 7.01 +2.49
3 New York Jets 8.5 7.48 +1.02
4 Kansas City Chiefs 9 8.41 +0.59
5 San Diego Chargers 8.5 8.22 +0.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Buffalo Bills 4 7.44 -3.44
2 Boston Patriots 3.5 6.88 -3.38
3 Denver Broncos 3 5.26 -2.26
4 Miami Dolphins 4 4.11 -0.11
5 San Diego Chargers 8.5 8.22 +0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oakland Raiders 10 Oct 15 – Dec 24 1 in 315
2 Miami Dolphins 2 Dec 10 – Dec 17 1 in 10
3 San Diego Chargers 3 Sep 9 – Oct 1 1 in 6
4 New York Jets 3 Sep 24 – Oct 7 1 in 6
5 Kansas City Chiefs 3 Oct 29 – Nov 12 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Denver Broncos 9 Sep 10 – Nov 12 1 in 151
2 San Diego Chargers 4 Dec 3 – Dec 24 1 in 45
3 Boston Patriots 5 Nov 12 – Dec 17 1 in 44
4 Buffalo Bills 4 Nov 12 – Dec 3 1 in 28
5 Miami Dolphins 8 Sep 24 – Nov 19 1 in 13

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team12345
New York Jets29.86%25.61%22.18%17.08%5.27%
Buffalo Bills29.04%25.15%22.31%17.54%5.96%
Houston Oilers20.05%23.67%24.85%22.60%8.83%
Boston Patriots19.67%22.24%23.34%24.56%10.19%
Miami Dolphins1.38%3.33%7.32%18.22%69.75%
Team1234
Kansas City Chiefs36.31%29.90%25.52%8.27%
San Diego Chargers30.64%31.68%28.31%9.37%
Oakland Raiders30.48%31.20%28.35%9.97%
Denver Broncos2.57%7.22%17.82%72.39%
Team123456789
Kansas City Chiefs24.27%18.24%15.25%12.50%10.10%8.58%6.21%3.50%1.35%
San Diego Chargers19.88%17.41%15.66%13.88%11.92%9.26%6.88%3.62%1.49%
Oakland Raiders20.32%17.52%15.17%13.36%11.21%9.70%7.00%4.20%1.52%
New York Jets11.55%12.41%13.72%13.11%13.94%12.89%11.68%7.64%3.06%
Buffalo Bills9.73%12.84%13.17%14.54%14.27%12.80%11.18%7.78%3.69%
Houston Oilers6.49%9.42%11.31%13.10%14.38%15.04%13.89%10.70%5.67%
Boston Patriots6.39%9.26%10.76%11.97%13.52%14.45%15.16%12.07%6.42%
Denver Broncos1.17%2.36%3.70%5.60%7.55%11.59%16.90%27.35%23.78%
Miami Dolphins0.20%0.54%1.26%1.94%3.11%5.69%11.10%23.14%53.02%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
New York Jets29.86%70.14%
Buffalo Bills29.04%70.96%
Houston Oilers20.05%79.95%
Boston Patriots19.67%80.33%
Miami Dolphins1.38%98.62%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs36.31%63.69%
San Diego Chargers30.64%69.36%
Oakland Raiders30.48%69.52%
Denver Broncos2.57%97.43%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs 36.31% 22.62%
Oakland Raiders 30.48% 20.63%
San Diego Chargers 30.64% 16.41%
New York Jets 29.86% 12.59%
Buffalo Bills 29.04% 11.36%
Houston Oilers 20.05% 8.44%
Boston Patriots 19.67% 6.80%
Denver Broncos 2.57% 0.80%
Miami Dolphins 1.38% 0.35%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots0.34%2.78%1.51%2.17%
Buffalo Bills0.47%4.04%2.79%4.06%
Denver Broncos0.19%0.24%0.12%0.01%0.24%
Houston Oilers0.43%2.60%2.35%3.06%
Kansas City Chiefs5.09%6.40%4.21%0.34%6.58%
Miami Dolphins0.17%0.08%0.10%
New York Jets0.53%4.10%3.12%4.84%
Oakland Raiders4.32%5.93%4.45%0.37%5.56%
San Diego Chargers3.27%5.11%2.83%0.31%4.89%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders 65.51% Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers 34.49% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston OilersOakland Raiders
Houston Oilers34.49%
Oakland Raiders65.51%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Oakland Raiders 65.51% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Houston Oilers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
65.51%
Houston Oilers 34.49% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Oakland Raiders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
34.49%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1967-09-03 @ Denver Broncos L 21-26 1521.31 1461.45 51.08% 45.03% -5.96 0-1
1967-09-09 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-28 1515.35 1531.94 40.21% 55.91% -7.93 0-2
1967-09-17 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-35 1507.42 1538.00 38.29% 57.83% -10.68 0-3
1967-09-24 @ Buffalo Bills W 23-0 1496.74 1533.48 37.45% 58.67% +14.64 1-3
1967-10-08 @ San Diego Chargers T 31-31 1511.38 1557.47 36.20% 59.92% +0.30 1-3
1967-10-15 Miami Dolphins W 41-10 1511.68 1366.08 71.92% 24.24% +7.20 2-3
1967-10-22 Oakland Raiders L 14-48 1518.88 1548.15 49.42% 46.69% -15.07 2-4
1967-10-29 @ New York Jets L 23-30 1503.81 1532.80 38.50% 57.61% -5.37 2-5
1967-11-05 Houston Oilers W 18-7 1498.44 1502.08 53.07% 43.04% +7.50 3-5
1967-11-12 Kansas City Chiefs L 10-33 1505.94 1572.34 44.10% 52.01% -11.10 3-6
1967-11-19 New York Jets L 24-29 1494.84 1534.59 47.91% 48.20% -5.61 3-7
1967-11-26 @ Houston Oilers L 6-27 1489.23 1497.67 41.34% 54.77% -9.97 3-8
1967-12-09 Buffalo Bills L 16-44 1479.26 1483.23 53.03% 43.09% -14.64 3-9
1967-12-17 @ Miami Dolphins L 32-41 1464.62 1356.85 57.79% 38.33% -9.02 3-10
1967-09-10 New York Jets W 20-17 1543.59 1505.07 58.91% 37.21% +3.41 1-0
1967-09-17 Houston Oilers L 3-20 1547.00 1477.07 63.03% 33.09% -13.52 1-1
1967-09-24 Boston Patriots L 0-23 1533.48 1496.74 58.67% 37.45% -14.64 1-2
1967-10-01 San Diego Chargers L 17-37 1518.84 1545.84 49.74% 46.36% -11.63 1-3
1967-10-08 @ Denver Broncos W 17-16 1507.21 1431.17 53.38% 42.73% +2.25 2-3
1967-10-15 Oakland Raiders L 20-24 1509.46 1543.05 48.80% 47.31% -5.11 2-4
1967-10-29 @ Houston Oilers L 3-10 1504.35 1496.01 43.70% 52.41% -6.07 2-5
1967-11-05 Miami Dolphins W 35-13 1498.28 1351.79 72.01% 24.15% +6.04 3-5
1967-11-12 @ New York Jets L 10-20 1504.32 1528.05 39.22% 56.89% -6.53 3-6
1967-11-19 Denver Broncos L 20-21 1497.79 1406.07 65.76% 30.37% -3.42 3-7
1967-11-26 @ Miami Dolphins L 14-17 1494.37 1337.91 64.18% 31.95% -5.78 3-8
1967-12-03 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 13-23 1488.59 1567.53 31.95% 64.18% -5.36 3-9
1967-12-09 @ Boston Patriots W 44-16 1483.23 1479.26 43.09% 53.03% +14.64 4-9
1967-12-24 @ Oakland Raiders L 21-28 1497.87 1620.93 26.70% 69.45% -3.76 4-10
1967-09-03 Boston Patriots W 26-21 1461.45 1521.31 45.03% 51.08% +5.96 1-0
1967-09-10 @ Oakland Raiders L 0-51 1467.41 1524.89 34.70% 61.43% -13.11 1-1
1967-09-17 @ Miami Dolphins L 21-35 1454.30 1376.74 53.59% 42.52% -10.45 1-2
1967-09-24 New York Jets L 24-38 1443.85 1501.66 45.32% 50.79% -8.90 1-3
1967-10-01 @ Houston Oilers L 6-10 1434.95 1484.61 35.72% 60.40% -3.78 1-4
1967-10-08 Buffalo Bills L 16-17 1431.17 1507.21 42.73% 53.38% -2.24 1-5
1967-10-22 San Diego Chargers L 21-38 1428.93 1565.86 34.45% 61.68% -7.52 1-6
1967-10-29 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 9-52 1421.41 1553.23 25.72% 70.43% -8.99 1-7
1967-11-05 Oakland Raiders L 17-21 1412.42 1578.00 30.82% 65.31% -3.27 1-8
1967-11-12 Houston Oilers L 18-20 1409.15 1494.58 41.41% 54.70% -3.08 1-9
1967-11-19 @ Buffalo Bills W 21-20 1406.07 1497.79 30.37% 65.76% +3.42 2-9
1967-11-23 @ San Diego Chargers L 20-24 1409.49 1566.22 23.08% 73.08% -2.47 2-10
1967-12-03 @ New York Jets W 33-24 1407.02 1540.20 25.58% 70.58% +11.00 3-10
1967-12-17 Kansas City Chiefs L 24-38 1418.02 1582.16 31.00% 65.13% -6.15 3-11
1967-09-09 Kansas City Chiefs L 20-25 1482.18 1552.83 43.49% 52.62% -5.11 0-1
1967-09-17 @ Buffalo Bills W 20-3 1477.07 1547.00 33.09% 63.03% +13.52 1-1
1967-09-24 @ San Diego Chargers L 3-13 1490.59 1539.86 35.77% 60.35% -5.98 1-2
1967-10-01 Denver Broncos W 10-6 1484.61 1434.95 60.40% 35.72% +3.77 2-2
1967-10-15 @ New York Jets T 28-28 1488.38 1525.97 37.34% 58.78% +0.27 2-2
1967-10-22 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 24-19 1488.65 1560.59 32.84% 63.29% +7.36 3-2
1967-10-29 Buffalo Bills W 10-3 1496.01 1504.35 52.41% 43.70% +6.07 4-2
1967-11-05 @ Boston Patriots L 7-18 1502.08 1498.44 43.04% 53.07% -7.50 4-3
1967-11-12 @ Denver Broncos W 20-18 1494.58 1409.15 54.70% 41.41% +3.09 5-3
1967-11-26 Boston Patriots W 27-6 1497.67 1489.23 54.77% 41.34% +9.96 6-3
1967-12-03 Miami Dolphins W 17-14 1507.63 1343.69 73.81% 22.35% +2.07 7-3
1967-12-10 Oakland Raiders L 7-19 1509.70 1608.97 39.49% 56.62% -7.21 7-4
1967-12-16 San Diego Chargers W 24-17 1502.49 1541.88 47.96% 48.14% +6.67 8-4
1967-12-23 @ Miami Dolphins W 41-10 1509.16 1365.88 62.50% 33.62% +9.91 9-4
1967-09-09 @ Houston Oilers W 25-20 1552.83 1482.18 52.62% 43.49% +5.11 1-0
1967-09-24 @ Miami Dolphins W 24-0 1557.94 1387.20 65.94% 30.19% +7.86 2-0
1967-10-01 @ Oakland Raiders L 21-23 1565.80 1548.68 44.95% 51.16% -3.34 2-1
1967-10-08 Miami Dolphins W 41-0 1562.46 1372.90 76.28% 19.90% +6.82 3-1
1967-10-15 @ San Diego Chargers L 31-45 1569.28 1557.17 44.24% 51.87% -8.69 3-2
1967-10-22 Houston Oilers L 19-24 1560.59 1488.65 63.29% 32.84% -7.36 3-3
1967-10-29 Denver Broncos W 52-9 1553.23 1421.41 70.43% 25.72% +8.99 4-3
1967-11-05 New York Jets W 42-18 1562.22 1538.17 56.94% 39.18% +10.12 5-3
1967-11-12 @ Boston Patriots W 33-10 1572.34 1505.94 52.01% 44.10% +11.10 6-3
1967-11-19 San Diego Chargers L 16-17 1583.44 1563.28 56.40% 39.71% -2.93 6-4
1967-11-23 Oakland Raiders L 22-44 1580.51 1584.42 53.03% 43.08% -12.98 6-5
1967-12-03 Buffalo Bills W 23-13 1567.53 1488.59 64.18% 31.95% +5.36 7-5
1967-12-10 @ New York Jets W 21-7 1572.89 1529.20 48.76% 47.35% +9.27 8-5
1967-12-17 @ Denver Broncos W 38-24 1582.16 1418.02 65.13% 31.00% +6.16 9-5
1967-09-17 Denver Broncos W 35-21 1376.74 1454.30 42.52% 53.59% +10.46 1-0
1967-09-24 Kansas City Chiefs L 0-24 1387.20 1557.94 30.19% 65.94% -7.85 1-1
1967-10-01 @ New York Jets L 7-29 1379.35 1510.56 25.79% 70.36% -6.45 1-2
1967-10-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 0-41 1372.90 1562.46 19.90% 76.28% -6.82 1-3
1967-10-15 @ Boston Patriots L 10-41 1366.08 1511.68 24.24% 71.92% -7.20 1-4
1967-10-22 New York Jets L 14-33 1358.88 1525.70 30.67% 65.46% -7.09 1-5
1967-11-05 @ Buffalo Bills L 13-35 1351.79 1498.28 24.15% 72.01% -6.05 1-6
1967-11-12 @ San Diego Chargers L 0-24 1345.74 1558.59 17.85% 78.35% -4.68 1-7
1967-11-19 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-31 1341.06 1581.27 15.66% 80.56% -3.15 1-8
1967-11-26 Buffalo Bills W 17-14 1337.91 1494.37 31.95% 64.18% +5.78 2-8
1967-12-03 @ Houston Oilers L 14-17 1343.69 1507.63 22.35% 73.81% -2.07 2-9
1967-12-10 San Diego Chargers W 41-24 1341.62 1557.11 25.05% 71.10% +15.23 3-9
1967-12-17 Boston Patriots W 41-32 1356.85 1464.62 38.33% 57.79% +9.03 4-9
1967-12-23 Houston Oilers L 10-41 1365.88 1509.16 33.62% 62.50% -9.92 4-10
1967-09-10 @ Buffalo Bills L 17-20 1505.07 1543.59 37.21% 58.91% -3.41 0-1
1967-09-24 @ Denver Broncos W 38-24 1501.66 1443.85 50.79% 45.32% +8.90 1-1
1967-10-01 Miami Dolphins W 29-7 1510.56 1379.35 70.36% 25.79% +6.44 2-1
1967-10-07 Oakland Raiders W 27-14 1517.00 1552.02 48.59% 47.52% +8.97 3-1
1967-10-15 Houston Oilers T 28-28 1525.97 1488.38 58.78% 37.34% -0.27 3-1
1967-10-22 @ Miami Dolphins W 33-14 1525.70 1358.88 65.46% 30.67% +7.10 4-1
1967-10-29 Boston Patriots W 30-23 1532.80 1503.81 57.61% 38.50% +5.37 5-1
1967-11-05 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 18-42 1538.17 1562.22 39.18% 56.94% -10.12 5-2
1967-11-12 Buffalo Bills W 20-10 1528.05 1504.32 56.89% 39.22% +6.54 6-2
1967-11-19 @ Boston Patriots W 29-24 1534.59 1494.84 48.20% 47.91% +5.61 7-2
1967-12-03 Denver Broncos L 24-33 1540.20 1407.02 70.58% 25.58% -11.00 7-3
1967-12-10 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-21 1529.20 1572.89 47.35% 48.76% -9.28 7-4
1967-12-17 @ Oakland Raiders L 29-38 1519.92 1616.18 29.82% 66.31% -4.75 7-5
1967-12-24 @ San Diego Chargers W 42-31 1515.17 1535.21 39.73% 56.38% +9.74 8-5
1967-09-10 Denver Broncos W 51-0 1524.89 1467.41 61.43% 34.70% +13.11 1-0
1967-09-17 Boston Patriots W 35-7 1538.00 1507.42 57.83% 38.29% +10.68 2-0
1967-10-01 Kansas City Chiefs W 23-21 1548.68 1565.80 51.16% 44.95% +3.34 3-0
1967-10-07 @ New York Jets L 14-27 1552.02 1517.00 47.52% 48.59% -8.97 3-1
1967-10-15 @ Buffalo Bills W 24-20 1543.05 1509.46 47.31% 48.80% +5.10 4-1
1967-10-22 @ Boston Patriots W 48-14 1548.15 1518.88 46.69% 49.42% +15.07 5-1
1967-10-29 San Diego Chargers W 51-10 1563.22 1573.37 52.15% 43.96% +14.78 6-1
1967-11-05 @ Denver Broncos W 21-17 1578.00 1412.42 65.31% 30.82% +3.27 7-1
1967-11-19 Miami Dolphins W 31-17 1581.27 1341.06 80.56% 15.66% +3.15 8-1
1967-11-23 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 44-22 1584.42 1580.51 43.08% 53.03% +12.97 9-1
1967-12-03 @ San Diego Chargers W 41-21 1597.39 1568.68 46.61% 49.50% +11.58 10-1
1967-12-10 @ Houston Oilers W 19-7 1608.97 1509.70 56.62% 39.49% +7.21 11-1
1967-12-17 New York Jets W 38-29 1616.18 1519.92 66.31% 29.82% +4.75 12-1
1967-12-24 Buffalo Bills W 28-21 1620.93 1497.87 69.45% 26.70% +3.76 13-1
1967-09-09 Boston Patriots W 28-14 1531.94 1515.35 55.91% 40.21% +7.92 1-0
1967-09-24 Houston Oilers W 13-3 1539.86 1490.59 60.35% 35.77% +5.98 2-0
1967-10-01 @ Buffalo Bills W 37-17 1545.84 1518.84 46.36% 49.74% +11.63 3-0
1967-10-08 Boston Patriots T 31-31 1557.47 1511.38 59.92% 36.20% -0.30 3-0
1967-10-15 Kansas City Chiefs W 45-31 1557.17 1569.28 51.87% 44.24% +8.69 4-0
1967-10-22 @ Denver Broncos W 38-21 1565.86 1428.93 61.68% 34.45% +7.51 5-0
1967-10-29 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-51 1573.37 1563.22 43.96% 52.15% -14.78 5-1
1967-11-12 Miami Dolphins W 24-0 1558.59 1345.74 78.35% 17.85% +4.69 6-1
1967-11-19 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 17-16 1563.28 1583.44 39.71% 56.40% +2.94 7-1
1967-11-23 Denver Broncos W 24-20 1566.22 1409.49 73.08% 23.08% +2.46 8-1
1967-12-03 Oakland Raiders L 21-41 1568.68 1597.39 49.50% 46.61% -11.57 8-2
1967-12-10 @ Miami Dolphins L 24-41 1557.11 1341.62 71.10% 25.05% -15.23 8-3
1967-12-16 @ Houston Oilers L 17-24 1541.88 1502.49 48.14% 47.96% -6.67 8-4
1967-12-24 New York Jets L 31-42 1535.21 1515.17 56.38% 39.73% -9.74 8-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1967-12-31 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-40 1519.07 1624.69 30.34% 69.66% -8.77 0-1
1967-12-31 Houston Oilers W 40-7 1624.69 1519.07 69.66% 30.34% +8.77 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1967-12-10 25.05% @ Miami Dolphins 1341.62 41 San Diego Chargers 1557.11 24
2 1967-12-03 25.58% Denver Broncos 1407.02 33 @ New York Jets 1540.20 24
3 1967-11-19 30.37% Denver Broncos 1406.07 21 @ Buffalo Bills 1497.79 20
4 1967-11-26 31.95% @ Miami Dolphins 1337.91 17 Buffalo Bills 1494.37 14
5 1967-10-22 32.84% Houston Oilers 1488.65 24 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1560.59 19
6 1967-09-17 33.09% Houston Oilers 1477.07 20 @ Buffalo Bills 1547.00 3
7 1967-09-24 37.45% Boston Patriots 1496.74 23 @ Buffalo Bills 1533.48 0
8 1967-12-17 38.33% @ Miami Dolphins 1356.85 41 Boston Patriots 1464.62 32
9 1967-11-19 39.71% San Diego Chargers 1563.28 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1583.44 16
10 1967-12-24 39.73% New York Jets 1515.17 42 @ San Diego Chargers 1535.21 31
11 1967-09-17 42.52% @ Miami Dolphins 1376.74 35 Denver Broncos 1454.30 21
12 1967-11-23 43.08% Oakland Raiders 1584.42 44 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1580.51 22
13 1967-12-09 43.09% Buffalo Bills 1483.23 44 @ Boston Patriots 1479.26 16
14 1967-09-03 45.03% @ Denver Broncos 1461.45 26 Boston Patriots 1521.31 21
15 1967-10-01 46.36% San Diego Chargers 1545.84 37 @ Buffalo Bills 1518.84 17
16 1967-12-03 46.61% Oakland Raiders 1597.39 41 @ San Diego Chargers 1568.68 21
17 1967-10-22 46.69% Oakland Raiders 1548.15 48 @ Boston Patriots 1518.88 14
18 1967-10-15 47.31% Oakland Raiders 1543.05 24 @ Buffalo Bills 1509.46 20
19 1967-12-16 47.96% @ Houston Oilers 1502.49 24 San Diego Chargers 1541.88 17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-12-10 15.23 @ Miami Dolphins 41 1341.62 25.05% San Diego Chargers 24 1557.11 71.10%
2 1967-10-22 15.07 Oakland Raiders 48 1548.15 46.69% @ Boston Patriots 14 1518.88 49.42%
3 1967-10-29 14.78 @ Oakland Raiders 51 1563.22 52.15% San Diego Chargers 10 1573.37 43.96%
4 1967-09-24 14.64 Boston Patriots 23 1496.74 37.45% @ Buffalo Bills 0 1533.48 58.67%
5 1967-12-09 14.64 Buffalo Bills 44 1483.23 43.09% @ Boston Patriots 16 1479.26 53.03%
6 1967-09-17 13.52 Houston Oilers 20 1477.07 33.09% @ Buffalo Bills 3 1547.00 63.03%
7 1967-09-10 13.11 @ Oakland Raiders 51 1524.89 61.43% Denver Broncos 0 1467.41 34.70%
8 1967-11-23 12.98 Oakland Raiders 44 1584.42 43.08% @ Kansas City Chiefs 22 1580.51 53.03%
9 1967-10-01 11.63 San Diego Chargers 37 1545.84 46.36% @ Buffalo Bills 17 1518.84 49.74%
10 1967-12-03 11.58 Oakland Raiders 41 1597.39 46.61% @ San Diego Chargers 21 1568.68 49.50%
11 1967-11-12 11.10 Kansas City Chiefs 33 1572.34 52.01% @ Boston Patriots 10 1505.94 44.10%
12 1967-12-03 11.00 Denver Broncos 33 1407.02 25.58% @ New York Jets 24 1540.20 70.58%
13 1967-09-17 10.68 @ Oakland Raiders 35 1538.00 57.83% Boston Patriots 7 1507.42 38.29%
14 1967-09-17 10.46 @ Miami Dolphins 35 1376.74 42.52% Denver Broncos 21 1454.30 53.59%
15 1967-11-05 10.12 @ Kansas City Chiefs 42 1562.22 56.94% New York Jets 18 1538.17 39.18%
16 1967-11-26 9.97 @ Houston Oilers 27 1497.67 54.77% Boston Patriots 6 1489.23 41.34%
17 1967-12-23 9.92 Houston Oilers 41 1509.16 62.50% @ Miami Dolphins 10 1365.88 33.62%
18 1967-12-24 9.74 New York Jets 42 1515.17 39.73% @ San Diego Chargers 31 1535.21 56.38%
19 1967-12-10 9.28 Kansas City Chiefs 21 1572.89 48.76% @ New York Jets 7 1529.20 47.35%
20 1967-12-17 9.03 @ Miami Dolphins 41 1356.85 38.33% Boston Patriots 32 1464.62 57.79%
21 1967-10-29 8.99 @ Kansas City Chiefs 52 1553.23 70.43% Denver Broncos 9 1421.41 25.72%
22 1967-10-07 8.97 @ New York Jets 27 1517.00 48.59% Oakland Raiders 14 1552.02 47.52%
23 1967-09-24 8.90 New York Jets 38 1501.66 50.79% @ Denver Broncos 24 1443.85 45.32%
24 1967-12-31 * 8.77 @ Oakland Raiders 40 1624.69 69.66% Houston Oilers 7 1519.07 30.34%
25 1967-10-15 8.69 @ San Diego Chargers 45 1557.17 51.87% Kansas City Chiefs 31 1569.28 44.24%