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1963 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Boston Patriots

1st Title

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

3.73 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.27 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

3.94 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.44 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills Division 7 6 1 .536 — 304 291 +13 6.93 +0.57
2 Boston Patriots Playoffs 7 6 1 .536 — 327 257 +70 7.33 +0.17
3 Houston Oilers 6 8 0 .429 1.5 302 372 -70 7.15 -1.15
4 New York Jets 5 8 1 .393 2 249 399 -150 6.66 -1.16
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Diego Chargers 11 3 0 .786 — 399 255 +144 7.27 +3.73
2 Oakland Raiders 10 4 0 .714 1 363 282 +81 6.93 +3.07
3 Kansas City Chiefs 5 7 2 .429 5 347 263 +84 7.30 -1.30
4 Denver Broncos 2 11 1 .179 8.5 301 473 -172 6.44 -3.94

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Boston Patriots 26
Buffalo Bills 8

Dec 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
San Diego Chargers West 1542 11 7.27 +3.73 99.65% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Boston Patriots East 1522 7.5 7.33 +0.17 80.02% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Oakland Raiders West 1515 10 6.93 +3.07 98.87% 1 4 5 7 8 9 13
Kansas City Chiefs West 1511 6 7.30 -1.30 62.68% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14
Buffalo Bills East 1506 7.5 6.93 +0.57 86.17% 1 4 5 7 8 10 13
Houston Oilers East 1497 6 7.15 -1.15 43.44% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
New York Jets East 1459 5.5 6.66 -1.16 55.21% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Denver Broncos West 1447 2.5 6.44 -3.94 6.63% 1 3 5 6 7 9 12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Boston Patriots —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
New York Jets
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Denver Broncos
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Diego Chargers 11 7.27 +3.73
2 Oakland Raiders 10 6.93 +3.07
3 Buffalo Bills 7.5 6.93 +0.57
4 Boston Patriots 7.5 7.33 +0.17
5 Houston Oilers 6 7.15 -1.15

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Denver Broncos 2.5 6.44 -3.94
2 Kansas City Chiefs 6 7.30 -1.30
3 New York Jets 5.5 6.66 -1.16
4 Houston Oilers 6 7.15 -1.15
5 Boston Patriots 7.5 7.33 +0.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oakland Raiders 8 Oct 20 – Dec 22 1 in 314
2 San Diego Chargers 4 Nov 2 – Dec 1 1 in 37
3 Buffalo Bills 3 Oct 26 – Nov 9 1 in 7
4 Houston Oilers 3 Oct 13 – Oct 27 1 in 7
5 New York Jets 3 Sep 22 – Oct 5 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Denver Broncos 7 Nov 3 – Dec 22 1 in 110
2 Kansas City Chiefs 5 Oct 13 – Nov 8 1 in 102
3 Houston Oilers 4 Dec 1 – Dec 22 1 in 20
4 Oakland Raiders 4 Sep 22 – Oct 11 1 in 12
5 New York Jets 3 Dec 8 – Dec 22 1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Boston Patriots30.70%26.91%22.95%19.44%
Houston Oilers27.18%26.44%24.25%22.13%
Buffalo Bills23.65%24.21%25.61%26.53%
New York Jets18.47%22.44%27.19%31.90%
Team1234
Kansas City Chiefs30.33%26.80%23.14%19.73%
San Diego Chargers29.77%27.04%24.27%18.92%
Oakland Raiders23.77%25.15%25.53%25.55%
Denver Broncos16.13%21.01%27.06%35.80%
Team12345678
Boston Patriots16.16%14.77%13.76%13.15%11.28%11.32%10.63%8.93%
Kansas City Chiefs15.92%13.93%13.55%12.65%12.66%11.10%10.66%9.53%
San Diego Chargers15.08%14.33%13.72%12.88%12.23%11.69%10.92%9.15%
Houston Oilers13.64%13.62%12.89%13.26%12.71%12.00%11.33%10.55%
Buffalo Bills11.82%12.22%12.26%12.15%12.60%13.20%12.57%13.18%
Oakland Raiders11.49%12.03%12.59%11.97%12.84%12.70%13.02%13.36%
New York Jets8.93%10.06%11.10%11.97%13.45%13.80%14.79%15.90%
Denver Broncos6.96%9.04%10.13%11.97%12.23%14.19%16.08%19.40%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Boston Patriots30.70%69.30%
Houston Oilers27.18%72.82%
Buffalo Bills23.65%76.35%
New York Jets18.47%81.53%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs30.33%69.67%
San Diego Chargers29.77%70.23%
Oakland Raiders23.77%76.23%
Denver Broncos16.13%83.87%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 29.77% 17.03%
Kansas City Chiefs 30.33% 16.00%
Boston Patriots 30.70% 15.65%
Houston Oilers 27.18% 12.83%
Oakland Raiders 23.77% 12.61%
Buffalo Bills 23.65% 11.46%
New York Jets 18.47% 7.88%
Denver Broncos 16.13% 6.54%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots3.05%4.81%3.60%4.19%
Buffalo Bills2.33%3.44%2.42%3.27%
Denver Broncos1.86%1.46%1.58%1.64%
Houston Oilers2.58%3.71%3.20%3.34%
Kansas City Chiefs4.78%3.69%4.46%3.07%
New York Jets1.63%2.37%1.94%1.94%
Oakland Raiders3.72%2.88%3.48%2.53%
San Diego Chargers4.69%4.16%4.83%3.35%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills 44.71% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Buffalo BillsSan Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills44.71%
San Diego Chargers55.29%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

San Diego Chargers 55.29% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Buffalo Bills
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
55.29%
Buffalo Bills 44.71% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. San Diego Chargers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
44.71%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1963-09-08 New York Jets W 38-14 1505.96 1487.28 64.70% 30.17% +5.01 1-0
1963-09-14 @ San Diego Chargers L 13-17 1510.97 1498.99 34.01% 60.82% -2.30 1-1
1963-09-22 @ Oakland Raiders W 20-14 1508.67 1494.85 34.25% 60.58% +4.89 2-1
1963-09-29 @ Denver Broncos L 10-14 1513.56 1479.69 36.89% 57.92% -2.48 2-2
1963-10-05 @ New York Jets L 24-31 1511.08 1487.41 35.53% 59.28% -3.16 2-3
1963-10-11 Oakland Raiders W 20-14 1507.92 1484.24 65.30% 29.57% +2.45 3-3
1963-10-18 Denver Broncos W 40-21 1510.37 1481.06 65.98% 28.90% +4.27 4-3
1963-10-26 @ Buffalo Bills L 21-28 1514.64 1494.77 35.03% 59.79% -3.12 4-4
1963-11-01 Houston Oilers W 45-3 1511.52 1523.12 60.87% 33.96% +7.42 5-4
1963-11-10 San Diego Chargers L 6-7 1518.94 1523.87 61.73% 33.11% -2.03 5-5
1963-11-17 Kansas City Chiefs T 24-24 1516.91 1497.32 64.81% 30.06% -0.28 5-5
1963-12-01 Buffalo Bills W 17-7 1516.63 1497.61 64.74% 30.13% +3.22 6-5
1963-12-08 @ Houston Oilers W 46-28 1519.85 1512.14 33.46% 61.37% +8.58 7-5
1963-12-14 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 3-35 1528.43 1498.00 36.43% 58.38% -6.93 7-6
1963-09-08 @ San Diego Chargers L 10-14 1502.13 1496.75 33.16% 61.68% -2.24 0-1
1963-09-15 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-35 1499.89 1490.03 33.74% 61.10% -4.83 0-2
1963-09-22 Kansas City Chiefs T 27-27 1495.06 1528.34 58.00% 36.81% -0.17 0-2
1963-09-28 Houston Oilers L 20-31 1494.89 1506.62 60.85% 33.98% -6.65 0-3
1963-10-05 Oakland Raiders W 12-0 1488.24 1488.03 62.39% 32.45% +3.80 1-3
1963-10-13 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 35-26 1492.04 1528.80 28.03% 66.86% +6.60 2-3
1963-10-20 @ Houston Oilers L 14-28 1498.64 1514.33 30.54% 64.33% -3.87 2-4
1963-10-26 Boston Patriots W 28-21 1494.77 1514.64 59.79% 35.03% +3.12 3-4
1963-11-03 @ Denver Broncos W 30-28 1497.89 1477.04 35.16% 59.66% +2.78 4-4
1963-11-09 Denver Broncos W 27-17 1500.67 1474.26 65.63% 29.25% +3.14 5-4
1963-11-17 San Diego Chargers L 13-23 1503.81 1525.91 59.49% 35.33% -6.20 5-5
1963-12-01 @ Boston Patriots L 7-17 1497.61 1516.63 30.13% 64.74% -3.23 5-6
1963-12-08 New York Jets W 45-14 1494.38 1477.44 64.48% 30.38% +5.73 6-6
1963-12-14 @ New York Jets W 19-10 1500.11 1471.72 36.16% 58.66% +5.80 7-6
1963-09-07 Kansas City Chiefs L 7-59 1496.40 1514.06 60.08% 34.75% -14.28 0-1
1963-09-14 @ Houston Oilers L 14-20 1482.12 1507.39 29.38% 65.49% -2.43 0-2
1963-09-29 Boston Patriots W 14-10 1479.69 1513.56 57.92% 36.89% +2.48 1-2
1963-10-06 San Diego Chargers W 50-34 1482.17 1505.82 59.29% 35.53% +4.78 2-2
1963-10-13 Houston Oilers L 24-33 1486.95 1508.44 59.57% 35.25% -5.89 2-3
1963-10-18 @ Boston Patriots L 21-40 1481.06 1510.37 28.90% 65.98% -4.27 2-4
1963-10-26 @ New York Jets T 35-35 1476.79 1483.08 31.69% 63.16% +0.25 2-4
1963-11-03 Buffalo Bills L 28-30 1477.04 1497.89 59.66% 35.16% -2.78 2-5
1963-11-09 @ Buffalo Bills L 17-27 1474.26 1500.67 29.25% 65.63% -3.13 2-6
1963-11-17 New York Jets L 9-14 1471.13 1467.86 62.78% 32.07% -4.62 2-7
1963-11-28 Oakland Raiders L 10-26 1466.51 1499.54 58.03% 36.78% -7.65 2-8
1963-12-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 21-52 1458.86 1492.64 28.38% 66.51% -5.36 2-9
1963-12-15 @ Oakland Raiders L 31-35 1453.50 1511.77 25.61% 69.32% -1.74 2-10
1963-12-22 @ San Diego Chargers L 20-58 1451.76 1537.64 22.72% 72.27% -4.78 2-11
1963-09-07 Oakland Raiders L 13-24 1514.62 1482.79 66.28% 28.61% -7.23 0-1
1963-09-14 Denver Broncos W 20-14 1507.39 1482.12 65.49% 29.38% +2.44 1-1
1963-09-22 @ New York Jets L 17-24 1509.83 1482.27 36.05% 58.77% -3.21 1-2
1963-09-28 @ Buffalo Bills W 31-20 1506.62 1494.89 33.98% 60.85% +6.65 2-2
1963-10-06 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-28 1513.27 1523.97 31.15% 63.71% -4.83 2-3
1963-10-13 @ Denver Broncos W 33-24 1508.44 1486.95 35.25% 59.57% +5.89 3-3
1963-10-20 Buffalo Bills W 28-14 1514.33 1498.64 64.33% 30.54% +3.87 4-3
1963-10-27 Kansas City Chiefs W 28-7 1518.20 1512.44 63.09% 31.76% +4.92 5-3
1963-11-01 @ Boston Patriots L 3-45 1523.12 1511.52 33.96% 60.87% -7.42 5-4
1963-11-10 New York Jets W 31-27 1515.70 1469.70 67.93% 26.98% +1.83 6-4
1963-12-01 @ San Diego Chargers L 0-27 1517.53 1532.11 30.67% 64.19% -5.39 6-5
1963-12-08 Boston Patriots L 28-46 1512.14 1519.85 61.37% 33.46% -8.58 6-6
1963-12-15 San Diego Chargers L 14-20 1503.56 1532.92 58.53% 36.29% -4.72 6-7
1963-12-22 @ Oakland Raiders L 49-52 1498.84 1513.52 30.66% 64.20% -1.80 6-8
1963-09-07 @ Denver Broncos W 59-7 1514.06 1496.40 34.75% 60.08% +14.28 1-0
1963-09-22 @ Buffalo Bills T 27-27 1528.34 1495.06 36.81% 58.00% +0.17 1-0
1963-09-29 @ San Diego Chargers L 10-24 1528.51 1501.28 36.00% 58.81% -4.54 1-1
1963-10-06 Houston Oilers W 28-7 1523.97 1513.27 63.71% 31.15% +4.83 2-1
1963-10-13 Buffalo Bills L 26-35 1528.80 1492.04 66.86% 28.03% -6.60 2-2
1963-10-20 San Diego Chargers L 17-38 1522.20 1503.14 64.74% 30.13% -9.76 2-3
1963-10-27 @ Houston Oilers L 7-28 1512.44 1518.20 31.76% 63.09% -4.92 2-4
1963-11-03 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-10 1507.52 1489.33 34.81% 60.01% -2.03 2-5
1963-11-08 Oakland Raiders L 7-22 1505.49 1491.36 64.13% 30.73% -8.17 2-6
1963-11-17 @ Boston Patriots T 24-24 1497.32 1516.91 30.06% 64.81% +0.28 2-6
1963-12-01 @ New York Jets L 0-17 1497.60 1472.49 35.72% 59.09% -4.96 2-7
1963-12-08 Denver Broncos W 52-21 1492.64 1458.86 66.51% 28.38% +5.36 3-7
1963-12-14 Boston Patriots W 35-3 1498.00 1528.43 58.38% 36.43% +6.93 4-7
1963-12-22 New York Jets W 48-0 1504.93 1465.92 67.12% 27.77% +6.53 5-7
1963-09-08 @ Boston Patriots L 14-38 1487.28 1505.96 30.17% 64.70% -5.01 0-1
1963-09-22 Houston Oilers W 24-17 1482.27 1509.83 58.77% 36.05% +3.21 1-1
1963-09-28 Oakland Raiders W 10-7 1485.48 1489.97 61.79% 33.05% +1.93 2-1
1963-10-05 Boston Patriots W 31-24 1487.41 1511.08 59.28% 35.53% +3.17 3-1
1963-10-13 @ San Diego Chargers L 20-24 1490.58 1501.03 31.18% 63.68% -2.11 3-2
1963-10-20 @ Oakland Raiders L 26-49 1488.47 1481.78 33.33% 61.51% -5.39 3-3
1963-10-26 Denver Broncos T 35-35 1483.08 1476.79 63.16% 31.69% -0.26 3-3
1963-11-02 San Diego Chargers L 7-53 1482.82 1510.75 58.72% 36.10% -13.12 3-4
1963-11-10 @ Houston Oilers L 27-31 1469.70 1515.70 26.98% 67.93% -1.84 3-5
1963-11-17 @ Denver Broncos W 14-9 1467.86 1471.13 32.07% 62.78% +4.63 4-5
1963-12-01 Kansas City Chiefs W 17-0 1472.49 1497.60 59.09% 35.72% +4.95 5-5
1963-12-08 @ Buffalo Bills L 14-45 1477.44 1494.38 30.38% 64.48% -5.72 5-6
1963-12-14 Buffalo Bills L 10-19 1471.72 1500.11 58.66% 36.16% -5.80 5-7
1963-12-22 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 0-48 1465.92 1504.93 27.77% 67.12% -6.53 5-8
1963-09-07 @ Houston Oilers W 24-13 1482.79 1514.62 28.61% 66.28% +7.24 1-0
1963-09-15 Buffalo Bills W 35-17 1490.03 1499.89 61.10% 33.74% +4.82 2-0
1963-09-22 Boston Patriots L 14-20 1494.85 1508.67 60.58% 34.25% -4.88 2-1
1963-09-28 @ New York Jets L 7-10 1489.97 1485.48 33.05% 61.79% -1.94 2-2
1963-10-05 @ Buffalo Bills L 0-12 1488.03 1488.24 32.45% 62.39% -3.79 2-3
1963-10-11 @ Boston Patriots L 14-20 1484.24 1507.92 29.57% 65.30% -2.46 2-4
1963-10-20 New York Jets W 49-26 1481.78 1488.47 61.51% 33.33% +5.40 3-4
1963-10-27 @ San Diego Chargers W 34-33 1487.18 1512.90 29.33% 65.55% +2.15 4-4
1963-11-03 Kansas City Chiefs W 10-7 1489.33 1507.52 60.01% 34.81% +2.03 5-4
1963-11-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 22-7 1491.36 1505.49 30.73% 64.13% +8.18 6-4
1963-11-28 @ Denver Broncos W 26-10 1499.54 1466.51 36.78% 58.03% +7.65 7-4
1963-12-08 San Diego Chargers W 41-27 1507.19 1537.50 58.40% 36.41% +4.58 8-4
1963-12-15 Denver Broncos W 35-31 1511.77 1453.50 69.32% 25.61% +1.75 9-4
1963-12-22 Houston Oilers W 52-49 1513.52 1498.84 64.20% 30.66% +1.79 10-4
1963-09-08 Buffalo Bills W 14-10 1496.75 1502.13 61.68% 33.16% +2.24 1-0
1963-09-14 Boston Patriots W 17-13 1498.99 1510.97 60.82% 34.01% +2.29 2-0
1963-09-29 Kansas City Chiefs W 24-10 1501.28 1528.51 58.81% 36.00% +4.54 3-0
1963-10-06 @ Denver Broncos L 34-50 1505.82 1482.17 35.53% 59.29% -4.79 3-1
1963-10-13 New York Jets W 24-20 1501.03 1490.58 63.68% 31.18% +2.11 4-1
1963-10-20 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 38-17 1503.14 1522.20 30.13% 64.74% +9.76 5-1
1963-10-27 Oakland Raiders L 33-34 1512.90 1487.18 65.55% 29.33% -2.15 5-2
1963-11-02 @ New York Jets W 53-7 1510.75 1482.82 36.10% 58.72% +13.12 6-2
1963-11-10 @ Boston Patriots W 7-6 1523.87 1518.94 33.11% 61.73% +2.04 7-2
1963-11-17 @ Buffalo Bills W 23-13 1525.91 1503.81 35.33% 59.49% +6.20 8-2
1963-12-01 Houston Oilers W 27-0 1532.11 1517.53 64.19% 30.67% +5.39 9-2
1963-12-08 @ Oakland Raiders L 27-41 1537.50 1507.19 36.41% 58.40% -4.58 9-3
1963-12-15 @ Houston Oilers W 20-14 1532.92 1503.56 36.29% 58.53% +4.72 10-3
1963-12-22 Denver Broncos W 58-20 1537.64 1451.76 72.27% 22.72% +4.77 11-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1963-12-28 @ Buffalo Bills W 26-8 1521.50 1505.91 36.89% 63.11% +8.43 1-0
1964-01-05 @ San Diego Chargers L 10-51 1529.93 1542.41 33.21% 66.79% -6.70 1-1
1963-12-28 Boston Patriots L 8-26 1505.91 1521.50 63.11% 36.89% -8.44 0-1
1964-01-05 Boston Patriots W 51-10 1542.41 1529.93 66.79% 33.21% +6.70 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-10-13 28.03% Buffalo Bills 1492.04 35 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1528.80 26
2 1963-09-07 28.61% Oakland Raiders 1482.79 24 @ Houston Oilers 1514.62 13
3 1963-10-27 29.33% Oakland Raiders 1487.18 34 @ San Diego Chargers 1512.90 33
4 1963-10-20 30.13% San Diego Chargers 1503.14 38 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1522.20 17
5 1963-11-08 30.73% Oakland Raiders 1491.36 22 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1505.49 7
6 1963-11-17 32.07% New York Jets 1467.86 14 @ Denver Broncos 1471.13 9
7 1963-11-10 33.11% San Diego Chargers 1523.87 7 @ Boston Patriots 1518.94 6
8 1963-12-08 33.46% Boston Patriots 1519.85 46 @ Houston Oilers 1512.14 28
9 1963-09-28 33.98% Houston Oilers 1506.62 31 @ Buffalo Bills 1494.89 20
10 1963-09-22 34.25% Boston Patriots 1508.67 20 @ Oakland Raiders 1494.85 14
11 1963-09-07 34.75% Kansas City Chiefs 1514.06 59 @ Denver Broncos 1496.40 7
12 1963-11-03 35.16% Buffalo Bills 1497.89 30 @ Denver Broncos 1477.04 28
13 1963-10-13 35.25% Houston Oilers 1508.44 33 @ Denver Broncos 1486.95 24
14 1963-11-17 35.33% San Diego Chargers 1525.91 23 @ Buffalo Bills 1503.81 13
15 1963-11-02 36.10% San Diego Chargers 1510.75 53 @ New York Jets 1482.82 7
16 1963-12-14 36.16% Buffalo Bills 1500.11 19 @ New York Jets 1471.72 10
17 1963-12-15 36.29% San Diego Chargers 1532.92 20 @ Houston Oilers 1503.56 14
18 1963-11-28 36.78% Oakland Raiders 1499.54 26 @ Denver Broncos 1466.51 10
19 1963-12-28 * 36.89% Boston Patriots 1521.50 26 @ Buffalo Bills 1505.91 8

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-09-07 14.28 Kansas City Chiefs 59 1514.06 34.75% @ Denver Broncos 7 1496.40 60.08%
2 1963-11-02 13.12 San Diego Chargers 53 1510.75 36.10% @ New York Jets 7 1482.82 58.72%
3 1963-10-20 9.76 San Diego Chargers 38 1503.14 30.13% @ Kansas City Chiefs 17 1522.20 64.74%
4 1963-12-08 8.58 Boston Patriots 46 1519.85 33.46% @ Houston Oilers 28 1512.14 61.37%
5 1963-12-28 * 8.44 Boston Patriots 26 1521.50 36.89% @ Buffalo Bills 8 1505.91 63.11%
6 1963-11-08 8.18 Oakland Raiders 22 1491.36 30.73% @ Kansas City Chiefs 7 1505.49 64.13%
7 1963-11-28 7.65 Oakland Raiders 26 1499.54 36.78% @ Denver Broncos 10 1466.51 58.03%
8 1963-11-01 7.42 @ Boston Patriots 45 1511.52 60.87% Houston Oilers 3 1523.12 33.96%
9 1963-09-07 7.24 Oakland Raiders 24 1482.79 28.61% @ Houston Oilers 13 1514.62 66.28%
10 1963-12-14 6.93 @ Kansas City Chiefs 35 1498.00 58.38% Boston Patriots 3 1528.43 36.43%
11 1964-01-05 * 6.70 @ San Diego Chargers 51 1542.41 66.79% Boston Patriots 10 1529.93 33.21%
12 1963-09-28 6.65 Houston Oilers 31 1506.62 33.98% @ Buffalo Bills 20 1494.89 60.85%
13 1963-10-13 6.60 Buffalo Bills 35 1492.04 28.03% @ Kansas City Chiefs 26 1528.80 66.86%
14 1963-12-22 6.53 @ Kansas City Chiefs 48 1504.93 67.12% New York Jets 0 1465.92 27.77%
15 1963-11-17 6.20 San Diego Chargers 23 1525.91 35.33% @ Buffalo Bills 13 1503.81 59.49%
16 1963-10-13 5.89 Houston Oilers 33 1508.44 35.25% @ Denver Broncos 24 1486.95 59.57%
17 1963-12-14 5.80 Buffalo Bills 19 1500.11 36.16% @ New York Jets 10 1471.72 58.66%
18 1963-12-08 5.73 @ Buffalo Bills 45 1494.38 64.48% New York Jets 14 1477.44 30.38%
19 1963-10-20 5.40 @ Oakland Raiders 49 1481.78 61.51% New York Jets 26 1488.47 33.33%
20 1963-12-01 5.39 @ San Diego Chargers 27 1532.11 64.19% Houston Oilers 0 1517.53 30.67%
21 1963-12-08 5.36 @ Kansas City Chiefs 52 1492.64 66.51% Denver Broncos 21 1458.86 28.38%
22 1963-09-08 5.01 @ Boston Patriots 38 1505.96 64.70% New York Jets 14 1487.28 30.17%
23 1963-12-01 4.96 @ New York Jets 17 1472.49 59.09% Kansas City Chiefs 0 1497.60 35.72%
24 1963-10-27 4.92 @ Houston Oilers 28 1518.20 63.09% Kansas City Chiefs 7 1512.44 31.76%
25 1963-09-22 4.89 Boston Patriots 20 1508.67 34.25% @ Oakland Raiders 14 1494.85 60.58%