1963 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Diego Chargers

1st Title

Runner-Up

Boston Patriots

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.89 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.11 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

2.42 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.92 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Boston Patriots Division	7	6	1	.536	-	327	257	+70	8.26	-0.76
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	7	6	1	.536	-	304	291	+13	6.87	+0.63
3	Houston Oilers	6	8	0	.429	1.5	302	372	-70	6.99	-0.99
4	New York Jets	5	8	1	.393	2	249	399	-150	5.94	-0.44

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	3	0	.786	-	399	255	+144	8.11	+2.89
2	Oakland Raiders	10	4	0	.714	1	363	282	+81	7.39	+2.61
3	Kansas City Chiefs	5	7	2	.429	5	347	263	+84	7.52	-1.52
4	Denver Broncos	2	11	1	.179	8.5	301	473	-172	4.92	-2.42

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Boston Patriots 26

Buffalo Bills 8

Dec 28

AFL Championship Game

San Diego Chargers 51

Boston Patriots 10

Jan 5

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	West	1688	11	8.11	+2.89	98.62%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	West	1636	10	7.39	+2.61	97.98%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Boston Patriots	East	1558	7.5	8.26	-0.76	62.07%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1552	7.5	6.87	+0.63	86.72%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1524	6	7.52	-1.52	56.55%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Houston Oilers	East	1440	6	6.99	-0.99	45.73%	0	4	6	7	8	9	13
New York Jets	East	1331	5.5	5.94	-0.44	69.79%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
Denver Broncos	West	1270	2.5	4.92	-2.42	24.97%	0	2	4	5	6	7	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	—	0.89%	1.79%	6.25%
7–13	1.79%	3.57%	5.36%	4.46%	1.79%	—	1.79%	18.75%
14–20	0.89%	5.36%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	1.79%	22.32%
21–27	0.89%	4.46%	2.68%	3.57%	3.57%	2.68%	1.79%	19.64%
28–34	—	1.79%	1.79%	3.57%	3.57%	0.89%	1.79%	13.39%
35–41	0.89%	—	2.68%	2.68%	0.89%	1.79%	—	8.93%
42+	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	—	1.79%	10.71%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	22.32%	19.64%	13.39%	8.93%	10.71%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.14	23.14	+0.00
SD	13.66	13.66	19.19
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	59	59	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.36	18.36	+5.00
SD	13.99	9.74	17.55
CV	0.60	0.53	—
Max	46	35	+42
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.71	20.79	+0.93
SD	10.74	9.41	13.20
CV	0.49	0.45	—
Max	45	35	+31
Min	7	0	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	33.79	-12.29
SD	11.66	14.84	17.86
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	50	59	+16
Min	7	10	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	—	21.43%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	26.57	-5.00
SD	13.48	12.92	17.57
CV	0.62	0.49	—
Max	49	52	+21
Min	0	7	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.79	18.79	+6.00
SD	18.43	11.81	25.74
CV	0.74	0.63	—
Max	59	38	+52
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.79	28.50	-10.71
SD	9.86	16.94	20.41
CV	0.55	0.59	—
Max	35	53	+17
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
Total	—	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.93	20.14	+5.79
SD	15.83	12.01	10.53
CV	0.61	0.60	—
Max	52	49	+23
Min	0	7	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.50	18.21	+10.29
SD	14.04	14.14	17.72
CV	0.49	0.78	—
Max	58	50	+46
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.51	+0.4
Allowed	0.56	-0.3
Differential	0.63	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	11	8.11	+2.89
2	Oakland Raiders	10	7.39	+2.61
3	Buffalo Bills	7.5	6.87	+0.63
4	New York Jets	5.5	5.94	-0.44
5	Boston Patriots	7.5	8.26	-0.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	2.5	4.92	-2.42
2	Kansas City Chiefs	6	7.52	-1.52
3	Houston Oilers	6	6.99	-0.99
4	Boston Patriots	7.5	8.26	-0.76
5	New York Jets	5.5	5.94	-0.44

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	8	Oct 20 – Dec 22	1 in 157
2	San Diego Chargers	4	Nov 2 – Dec 1	1 in 14
3	New York Jets	3	Sep 22 – Oct 5	1 in 7
4	Denver Broncos	2	Sep 29 – Oct 6	1 in 6
5	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Dec 8 – Dec 22	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Oct 13 – Nov 8	1 in 140
2	Denver Broncos	7	Nov 3 – Dec 22	1 in 23
3	Oakland Raiders	4	Sep 22 – Oct 11	1 in 14
4	Houston Oilers	4	Dec 1 – Dec 22	1 in 6
5	Boston Patriots	2	Sep 29 – Oct 5	1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Boston Patriots	50.55%	25.87%	15.62%	7.95%
Houston Oilers	21.37%	29.22%	28.39%	21.02%
Buffalo Bills	19.39%	27.69%	28.90%	24.02%
New York Jets	8.70%	17.22%	27.08%	47.00%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	42.69%	30.29%	20.99%	6.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	29.49%	31.23%	28.11%	11.17%
Oakland Raiders	25.50%	31.45%	32.07%	10.98%
Denver Broncos	2.31%	7.03%	18.83%	71.83%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Boston Patriots	27.77%	19.73%	15.60%	12.30%	9.56%	7.52%	5.09%	2.44%
San Diego Chargers	24.11%	19.60%	15.82%	13.32%	10.79%	8.29%	5.44%	2.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.35%	15.86%	16.27%	14.93%	13.52%	11.47%	8.60%	5.01%
Oakland Raiders	12.56%	14.76%	15.36%	15.14%	14.49%	12.71%	9.80%	5.19%
Houston Oilers	8.56%	11.80%	13.50%	14.67%	15.70%	15.01%	12.59%	8.16%
Buffalo Bills	8.43%	10.95%	12.57%	14.08%	14.83%	15.44%	13.90%	9.81%
New York Jets	3.45%	5.48%	7.68%	10.23%	12.95%	16.44%	21.76%	22.01%
Denver Broncos	0.77%	1.82%	3.21%	5.33%	8.17%	13.12%	22.82%	44.76%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Boston Patriots	50.55%	49.45%
Houston Oilers	21.37%	78.63%
Buffalo Bills	19.39%	80.61%
New York Jets	8.70%	91.30%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	42.69%	57.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	29.49%	70.51%
Oakland Raiders	25.50%	74.50%
Denver Broncos	2.31%	97.69%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+30.36%

Fortress

62.50%5.36%32.14%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 108.90 Elo pts.

23 Elo

0.043 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+5.36 points

Home-Tilted

-8+4.72+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

4.9

Open Race

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

31%

San Diego Chargers, 1st of 8

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.89 · Elevated: 1.89 to 2.58 · High Variance: 2.58 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 · Close: 1.48 to 2.01 · Off Target: 2.01 to 2.62 · Well Off Target: 2.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.8 · As Expected: 0.8 to 1.33 · More Than Expected: 1.33 to 2.14 · Far More Than Expected: 2.14 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.60 wins

As Expected

01.724

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.50

01.754

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

98.62%

San Diego Chargers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

24.97%

Denver Broncos

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 8

Many Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.60

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

92%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

16%

Mostly Decisive

0%14%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%39%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.34

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.03

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

-0.29

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.36 · Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.

Probability calibration

0.94

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.78

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.033

Well Within Noise

00.1820.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	42.69%	31.01%
Boston Patriots	50.55%	21.18%
Oakland Raiders	25.50%	16.95%
Kansas City Chiefs	29.49%	15.02%
Buffalo Bills	19.39%	8.01%
Houston Oilers	21.37%	5.85%
New York Jets	8.70%	1.50%
Denver Broncos	2.31%	0.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	New York Jets
Boston Patriots	83.8%1.15%	55.3%14.98%	39.1%12.93%	32.0%21.49%
Buffalo Bills	84.1%0.48%	54.8%5.69%	37.3%4.89%	32.1%8.33%
Houston Oilers	73.2%0.48%	38.8%6.24%	25.2%5.50%	18.5%9.15%
New York Jets	56.7%0.21%	25.5%2.59%	13.4%2.17%	11.6%3.72%
Denver Broncos					16.2%1.15%	15.9%0.48%	26.8%0.48%	43.3%0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs					44.7%14.98%	45.2%5.69%	61.2%6.24%	74.5%2.59%
Oakland Raiders					60.9%12.93%	62.7%4.89%	74.8%5.50%	86.6%2.17%
San Diego Chargers					68.0%21.49%	67.9%8.33%	81.5%9.15%	88.4%3.72%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
San Diego Chargers	68.52%	Won Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills	31.5%100.00%
San Diego Chargers		68.5%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Diego Chargers 68.52% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.52%

Buffalo Bills 31.48% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.48%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-09-08	New York Jets	W 38-14	1518.58	1452.81	70.65%	25.13%	+28.43	1-0
1963-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-17	1547.01	1477.37	41.82%	53.01%	-19.23	1-1
1963-09-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1527.78	1529.19	32.47%	62.74%	+34.68	2-1
1963-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1562.46	1389.15	56.55%	38.39%	-25.63	2-2
1963-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 24-31	1536.83	1466.20	41.96%	52.87%	-25.51	2-3
1963-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1511.32	1448.20	70.35%	25.41%	+14.37	3-3
1963-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 40-21	1525.69	1421.68	74.83%	21.36%	+21.43	4-3
1963-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-28	1547.12	1490.22	40.07%	54.81%	-24.40	4-4
1963-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 45-3	1522.72	1593.10	52.91%	41.93%	+62.44	5-4
1963-11-10	San Diego Chargers	L 6-7	1585.16	1634.87	55.82%	39.09%	-12.66	5-5
1963-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	T 24-24	1572.50	1412.91	80.14%	16.64%	-3.51	5-5
1963-12-01	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1568.99	1508.16	70.08%	25.65%	+18.73	6-5
1963-12-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 46-28	1587.72	1516.77	42.01%	52.82%	+50.95	7-5
1963-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-35	1638.67	1413.70	63.49%	31.77%	-81.00	7-6
1963-09-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-14	1529.55	1458.03	42.09%	52.74%	-19.34	0-1
1963-09-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-35	1510.21	1495.39	34.50%	60.60%	-33.80	0-2
1963-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	T 27-27	1476.41	1648.78	38.51%	56.41%	+0.98	0-2
1963-09-28	Houston Oilers	L 20-31	1477.39	1481.17	62.06%	33.11%	-46.47	0-3
1963-10-05	Oakland Raiders	W 12-0	1430.92	1479.24	56.01%	38.90%	+31.04	1-3
1963-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-26	1461.96	1627.96	16.16%	80.70%	+53.91	2-3
1963-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-28	1515.87	1540.74	29.66%	65.75%	-25.65	2-4
1963-10-26	Boston Patriots	W 28-21	1490.22	1547.12	54.81%	40.07%	+24.40	3-4
1963-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-28	1514.62	1402.37	47.87%	46.91%	+15.16	4-4
1963-11-09	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1529.78	1387.20	78.61%	17.99%	+13.04	5-4
1963-11-17	San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1542.82	1647.53	47.99%	46.79%	-34.66	5-5
1963-12-01	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-17	1508.16	1568.99	25.65%	70.08%	-18.73	5-6
1963-12-08	New York Jets	W 45-14	1489.43	1423.99	70.62%	25.17%	+32.35	6-6
1963-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 19-10	1521.78	1391.64	50.44%	44.35%	+30.51	7-6
1963-09-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-59	1487.22	1563.33	52.09%	42.73%	-85.45	0-1
1963-09-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1401.77	1495.09	22.37%	73.70%	-12.62	0-2
1963-09-29	Boston Patriots	W 14-10	1389.15	1562.46	38.39%	56.55%	+25.63	1-2
1963-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 50-34	1414.78	1542.02	44.76%	50.02%	+45.61	2-2
1963-10-13	Houston Oilers	L 24-33	1460.39	1502.04	56.94%	38.01%	-38.71	2-3
1963-10-18	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-40	1421.68	1525.69	21.36%	74.83%	-21.42	2-4
1963-10-26	@ New York Jets	T 35-35	1400.26	1434.68	28.56%	66.93%	+2.11	2-4
1963-11-03	Buffalo Bills	L 28-30	1402.37	1514.62	46.91%	47.87%	-15.17	2-5
1963-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1387.20	1529.78	17.99%	78.61%	-13.04	2-6
1963-11-17	New York Jets	L 9-14	1374.16	1357.07	64.76%	30.57%	-32.63	2-7
1963-11-28	Oakland Raiders	L 10-26	1341.53	1554.96	33.19%	61.98%	-30.66	2-8
1963-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-52	1310.87	1382.14	24.56%	71.28%	-31.56	2-9
1963-12-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-35	1279.31	1627.19	6.54%	91.96%	-2.92	2-10
1963-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-58	1276.39	1681.90	4.81%	94.04%	-6.57	2-11
1963-09-07	Oakland Raiders	L 13-24	1551.19	1439.29	75.64%	20.63%	-56.10	0-1
1963-09-14	Denver Broncos	W 20-14	1495.09	1401.77	73.70%	22.37%	+12.62	1-1
1963-09-22	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1507.71	1424.38	43.74%	51.06%	-26.54	1-2
1963-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-20	1481.17	1477.39	33.11%	62.06%	+46.46	2-2
1963-10-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1527.63	1602.37	24.21%	71.67%	-25.59	2-3
1963-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 33-24	1502.04	1460.39	38.01%	56.94%	+38.70	3-3
1963-10-20	Buffalo Bills	W 28-14	1540.74	1515.87	65.75%	29.66%	+25.65	4-3
1963-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1566.39	1501.72	70.53%	25.25%	+26.71	5-3
1963-11-01	@ Boston Patriots	L 3-45	1593.10	1522.72	41.93%	52.91%	-62.44	5-4
1963-11-10	New York Jets	W 31-27	1530.66	1364.45	80.72%	16.14%	+7.38	6-4
1963-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-27	1538.04	1682.19	17.86%	78.76%	-21.27	6-5
1963-12-08	Boston Patriots	L 28-46	1516.77	1587.72	52.82%	42.01%	-50.95	6-6
1963-12-15	San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1465.82	1661.89	35.39%	59.67%	-20.01	6-7
1963-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 49-52	1445.81	1630.10	14.83%	82.22%	-5.85	6-8
1963-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 59-7	1563.33	1487.22	42.73%	52.09%	+85.45	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	T 27-27	1648.78	1476.41	56.41%	38.51%	-0.98	1-0
1963-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1647.80	1496.59	53.44%	41.40%	-45.43	1-1
1963-10-06	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1602.37	1527.63	71.67%	24.21%	+25.59	2-1
1963-10-13	Buffalo Bills	L 26-35	1627.96	1461.96	80.70%	16.16%	-53.90	2-2
1963-10-20	San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1574.06	1511.24	70.31%	25.44%	-72.34	2-3
1963-10-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-28	1501.72	1566.39	25.25%	70.53%	-26.71	2-4
1963-11-03	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-10	1475.01	1492.86	30.48%	64.86%	-12.21	2-5
1963-11-08	Oakland Raiders	L 7-22	1462.80	1505.07	56.85%	38.09%	-49.89	2-6
1963-11-17	@ Boston Patriots	T 24-24	1412.91	1572.50	16.64%	80.14%	+3.51	2-6
1963-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 0-17	1416.42	1389.71	36.04%	58.99%	-34.28	2-7
1963-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 52-21	1382.14	1310.87	71.28%	24.56%	+31.56	3-7
1963-12-14	Boston Patriots	W 35-3	1413.70	1638.67	31.77%	63.49%	+81.00	4-7
1963-12-22	New York Jets	W 48-0	1494.70	1361.13	77.77%	18.74%	+29.79	5-7
1963-09-08	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-38	1452.81	1518.58	25.13%	70.65%	-28.43	0-1
1963-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1424.38	1507.71	51.06%	43.74%	+26.55	1-1
1963-09-28	Oakland Raiders	W 10-7	1450.93	1494.51	56.67%	38.26%	+15.27	2-1
1963-10-05	Boston Patriots	W 31-24	1466.20	1536.83	52.87%	41.96%	+25.51	3-1
1963-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1491.71	1496.42	32.07%	63.17%	-14.82	3-2
1963-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-49	1476.89	1433.83	38.20%	56.74%	-42.21	3-3
1963-10-26	Denver Broncos	T 35-35	1434.68	1400.26	66.93%	28.56%	-2.11	3-3
1963-11-02	San Diego Chargers	L 7-53	1432.57	1566.76	43.78%	51.02%	-68.12	3-4
1963-11-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-31	1364.45	1530.66	16.14%	80.72%	-7.38	3-5
1963-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 14-9	1357.07	1374.16	30.57%	64.76%	+32.64	4-5
1963-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-0	1389.71	1416.42	58.99%	36.04%	+34.28	5-5
1963-12-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-45	1423.99	1489.43	25.17%	70.62%	-32.35	5-6
1963-12-14	Buffalo Bills	L 10-19	1391.64	1521.78	44.35%	50.44%	-30.51	5-7
1963-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-48	1361.13	1494.70	18.74%	77.77%	-29.78	5-8
1963-09-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-13	1439.29	1551.19	20.63%	75.64%	+56.10	1-0
1963-09-15	Buffalo Bills	W 35-17	1495.39	1510.21	60.60%	34.50%	+33.80	2-0
1963-09-22	Boston Patriots	L 14-20	1529.19	1527.78	62.74%	32.47%	-34.68	2-1
1963-09-28	@ New York Jets	L 7-10	1494.51	1450.93	38.26%	56.67%	-15.27	2-2
1963-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-12	1479.24	1430.92	38.90%	56.01%	-31.04	2-3
1963-10-11	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-20	1448.20	1511.32	25.41%	70.35%	-14.37	2-4
1963-10-20	New York Jets	W 49-26	1433.83	1476.89	56.74%	38.20%	+42.21	3-4
1963-10-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-33	1476.04	1583.58	21.03%	75.19%	+16.82	4-4
1963-11-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 10-7	1492.86	1475.01	64.86%	30.48%	+12.21	5-4
1963-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-7	1505.07	1462.80	38.09%	56.85%	+49.89	6-4
1963-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-10	1554.96	1341.53	61.98%	33.19%	+30.66	7-4
1963-12-08	San Diego Chargers	W 41-27	1585.62	1703.46	46.11%	48.67%	+41.57	8-4
1963-12-15	Denver Broncos	W 35-31	1627.19	1279.31	91.96%	6.54%	+2.91	9-4
1963-12-22	Houston Oilers	W 52-49	1630.10	1445.81	82.22%	14.83%	+5.86	10-4
1963-09-08	Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1458.03	1529.55	52.74%	42.09%	+19.34	1-0
1963-09-14	Boston Patriots	W 17-13	1477.37	1547.01	53.01%	41.82%	+19.22	2-0
1963-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-10	1496.59	1647.80	41.40%	53.44%	+45.43	3-0
1963-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 34-50	1542.02	1414.78	50.02%	44.76%	-45.60	3-1
1963-10-13	New York Jets	W 24-20	1496.42	1491.71	63.17%	32.07%	+14.82	4-1
1963-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-17	1511.24	1574.06	25.44%	70.31%	+72.34	5-1
1963-10-27	Oakland Raiders	L 33-34	1583.58	1476.04	75.19%	21.03%	-16.82	5-2
1963-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 53-7	1566.76	1432.57	51.02%	43.78%	+68.11	6-2
1963-11-10	@ Boston Patriots	W 7-6	1634.87	1585.16	39.09%	55.82%	+12.66	7-2
1963-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1647.53	1542.82	46.79%	47.99%	+34.66	8-2
1963-12-01	Houston Oilers	W 27-0	1682.19	1538.04	78.76%	17.86%	+21.27	9-2
1963-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-41	1703.46	1585.62	48.67%	46.11%	-41.57	9-3
1963-12-15	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1661.89	1465.82	59.67%	35.39%	+20.01	10-3
1963-12-22	Denver Broncos	W 58-20	1681.90	1276.39	94.04%	4.81%	+6.57	11-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-12-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-8	1557.67	1552.29	35.53%	64.47%	+59.24	1-0
1964-01-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-51	1616.91	1688.47	26.14%	73.86%	-36.25	1-1
1963-12-28	Boston Patriots	L 8-26	1552.29	1557.67	64.47%	35.53%	-59.25	0-1
1964-01-05	Boston Patriots	W 51-10	1688.47	1616.91	73.86%	26.14%	+36.25	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1963-10-13	16.16%	Buffalo Bills	1461.96	35	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1627.96	26
2	1963-09-07	20.63%	Oakland Raiders	1439.29	24	@ Houston Oilers	1551.19	13
3	1963-10-27	21.03%	Oakland Raiders	1476.04	34	@ San Diego Chargers	1583.58	33
4	1963-10-20	25.44%	San Diego Chargers	1511.24	38	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1574.06	17
5	1963-11-17	30.57%	New York Jets	1357.07	14	@ Denver Broncos	1374.16	9
6	1963-12-14	31.77%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1413.70	35	Boston Patriots	1638.67	3
7	1963-09-22	32.47%	Boston Patriots	1527.78	20	@ Oakland Raiders	1529.19	14
8	1963-09-28	33.11%	Houston Oilers	1481.17	31	@ Buffalo Bills	1477.39	20
9	1963-12-28 *	35.53%	Boston Patriots	1557.67	26	@ Buffalo Bills	1552.29	8
10	1963-10-13	38.01%	Houston Oilers	1502.04	33	@ Denver Broncos	1460.39	24
11	1963-11-08	38.09%	Oakland Raiders	1505.07	22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1462.80	7
12	1963-09-29	38.39%	@ Denver Broncos	1389.15	14	Boston Patriots	1562.46	10
13	1963-11-10	39.09%	San Diego Chargers	1634.87	7	@ Boston Patriots	1585.16	6
14	1963-09-29	41.40%	@ San Diego Chargers	1496.59	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1647.80	10
15	1963-12-08	42.01%	Boston Patriots	1587.72	46	@ Houston Oilers	1516.77	28
16	1963-09-07	42.73%	Kansas City Chiefs	1563.33	59	@ Denver Broncos	1487.22	7
17	1963-10-06	44.76%	@ Denver Broncos	1414.78	50	San Diego Chargers	1542.02	34
18	1963-12-08	46.11%	@ Oakland Raiders	1585.62	41	San Diego Chargers	1703.46	27
19	1963-11-17	46.79%	San Diego Chargers	1647.53	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1542.82	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1963-09-07	85.45	Kansas City Chiefs	59	1563.33	42.73%	@ Denver Broncos	7	1487.22	52.09%
2	1963-12-14	81.00	@ Kansas City Chiefs	35	1413.70	31.77%	Boston Patriots	3	1638.67	63.49%
3	1963-10-20	72.34	San Diego Chargers	38	1511.24	25.44%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1574.06	70.31%
4	1963-11-02	68.12	San Diego Chargers	53	1566.76	51.02%	@ New York Jets	7	1432.57	43.78%
5	1963-11-01	62.44	@ Boston Patriots	45	1522.72	52.91%	Houston Oilers	3	1593.10	41.93%
6	1963-12-28 *	59.25	Boston Patriots	26	1557.67	35.53%	@ Buffalo Bills	8	1552.29	64.47%
7	1963-09-07	56.10	Oakland Raiders	24	1439.29	20.63%	@ Houston Oilers	13	1551.19	75.64%
8	1963-10-13	53.91	Buffalo Bills	35	1461.96	16.16%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	26	1627.96	80.70%
9	1963-12-08	50.95	Boston Patriots	46	1587.72	42.01%	@ Houston Oilers	28	1516.77	52.82%
10	1963-11-08	49.89	Oakland Raiders	22	1505.07	38.09%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1462.80	56.85%
11	1963-09-28	46.47	Houston Oilers	31	1481.17	33.11%	@ Buffalo Bills	20	1477.39	62.06%
12	1963-10-06	45.61	@ Denver Broncos	50	1414.78	44.76%	San Diego Chargers	34	1542.02	50.02%
13	1963-09-29	45.43	@ San Diego Chargers	24	1496.59	41.40%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1647.80	53.44%
14	1963-10-20	42.21	@ Oakland Raiders	49	1433.83	56.74%	New York Jets	26	1476.89	38.20%
15	1963-12-08	41.57	@ Oakland Raiders	41	1585.62	46.11%	San Diego Chargers	27	1703.46	48.67%
16	1963-10-13	38.71	Houston Oilers	33	1502.04	38.01%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1460.39	56.94%
17	1964-01-05 *	36.25	@ San Diego Chargers	51	1688.47	73.86%	Boston Patriots	10	1616.91	26.14%
18	1963-09-22	34.68	Boston Patriots	20	1527.78	32.47%	@ Oakland Raiders	14	1529.19	62.74%
19	1963-11-17	34.66	San Diego Chargers	23	1647.53	46.79%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1542.82	47.99%
20	1963-12-01	34.28	@ New York Jets	17	1389.71	58.99%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1416.42	36.04%
21	1963-09-15	33.80	@ Oakland Raiders	35	1495.39	60.60%	Buffalo Bills	17	1510.21	34.50%
22	1963-11-17	32.64	New York Jets	14	1357.07	30.57%	@ Denver Broncos	9	1374.16	64.76%
23	1963-12-08	32.35	@ Buffalo Bills	45	1489.43	70.62%	New York Jets	14	1423.99	25.17%
24	1963-12-08	31.56	@ Kansas City Chiefs	52	1382.14	71.28%	Denver Broncos	21	1310.87	24.56%
25	1963-10-05	31.04	@ Buffalo Bills	12	1430.92	56.01%	Oakland Raiders	0	1479.24	38.90%