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1962 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dallas Texans

1st Title

Runner-Up

Houston Oilers

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1961

Biggest Overachiever

Dallas Texans

3.43 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.57 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

4.84 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.84 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Houston Oilers Division 11 3 0 .786 — 387 270 +117 7.98 +3.02
2 Boston Patriots 9 4 1 .679 1.5 346 295 +51 7.50 +2.00
3 Buffalo Bills 7 6 1 .536 3.5 309 272 +37 6.76 +0.74
4 New York Titans 5 9 0 .357 6 278 423 -145 6.50 -1.50
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Dallas Texans Division 11 3 0 .786 — 389 233 +156 7.57 +3.43
2 Denver Broncos 7 7 0 .500 4 353 334 +19 6.74 +0.26
3 San Diego Chargers 4 10 0 .286 7 314 392 -78 7.12 -3.12
4 Oakland Raiders 1 13 0 .071 10 213 370 -157 5.84 -4.84

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Dallas Texans 20
Houston Oilers 17

Dec 23

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Houston Oilers East 1561 11 7.98 +3.02 97.96% 1 5 7 8 9 11 14
Dallas Texans West 1546 11 7.57 +3.43 98.94% 0 4 6 7 9 10 14
Boston Patriots East 1523 9.5 7.50 +2.00 95.98% 0 4 6 7 9 10 14
Buffalo Bills East 1507 7.5 6.76 +0.74 84.74% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
San Diego Chargers West 1486 4 7.12 -3.12 9.20% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1485 7 6.74 +0.26 68.76% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
New York Titans East 1462 5 6.50 -1.50 32.89% 1 3 5 6 8 9 12
Oakland Raiders West 1431 1 5.84 -4.84 0.73% 0 3 4 6 7 9 13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Boston Patriots —
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
New York Titans
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
New York Titans
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Dallas Texans —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Denver Broncos
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Dallas Texans
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Denver Broncos
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Dallas Texans 11 7.57 +3.43
2 Houston Oilers 11 7.98 +3.02
3 Boston Patriots 9.5 7.50 +2.00
4 Buffalo Bills 7.5 6.76 +0.74
5 Denver Broncos 7 6.74 +0.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Oakland Raiders 1 5.84 -4.84
2 San Diego Chargers 4 7.12 -3.12
3 New York Titans 5 6.50 -1.50
4 Denver Broncos 7 6.74 +0.26
5 Buffalo Bills 7.5 6.76 +0.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Houston Oilers 7 Nov 4 – Dec 15 1 in 47
2 Denver Broncos 4 Sep 30 – Oct 21 1 in 18
3 Buffalo Bills 3 Oct 13 – Oct 28 1 in 9
4 Boston Patriots 3 Sep 16 – Oct 6 1 in 8
5 Dallas Texans 3 Sep 8 – Sep 30 1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oakland Raiders 13 Sep 9 – Dec 9 1 in 1,576
2 San Diego Chargers 6 Oct 13 – Nov 25 1 in 71
3 Buffalo Bills 5 Sep 9 – Oct 7 1 in 29
4 Denver Broncos 5 Nov 11 – Dec 9 1 in 28
5 New York Titans 4 Sep 30 – Oct 21 1 in 13

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Houston Oilers39.63%27.71%19.78%12.88%
Boston Patriots29.20%27.50%24.31%18.99%
Buffalo Bills17.10%23.48%28.21%31.21%
New York Titans14.07%21.31%27.70%36.92%
Team1234
Dallas Texans38.76%27.52%20.75%12.97%
San Diego Chargers28.39%28.35%24.92%18.34%
Denver Broncos21.89%26.05%27.32%24.74%
Oakland Raiders10.96%18.08%27.01%43.95%
Team12345678
Houston Oilers24.24%18.13%15.19%12.20%10.34%8.68%6.38%4.84%
Dallas Texans17.84%16.14%15.27%13.12%11.63%10.41%8.96%6.63%
Boston Patriots16.89%15.51%14.03%13.28%12.53%10.71%10.08%6.97%
San Diego Chargers12.54%13.15%13.37%14.00%13.11%12.06%11.77%10.00%
Buffalo Bills8.97%10.95%12.35%12.44%13.25%14.53%13.99%13.52%
Denver Broncos8.55%10.99%11.54%13.68%13.30%14.12%13.87%13.95%
New York Titans7.25%9.17%10.96%11.99%13.54%14.52%15.55%17.02%
Oakland Raiders3.72%5.96%7.29%9.29%12.30%14.97%19.40%27.07%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Houston Oilers39.63%60.37%
Boston Patriots29.20%70.80%
Buffalo Bills17.10%82.90%
New York Titans14.07%85.93%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Dallas Texans38.76%61.24%
San Diego Chargers28.39%71.61%
Denver Broncos21.89%78.11%
Oakland Raiders10.96%89.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers 39.63% 23.15%
Dallas Texans 38.76% 19.94%
Boston Patriots 29.20% 15.26%
San Diego Chargers 28.39% 12.69%
Denver Broncos 21.89% 9.96%
Buffalo Bills 17.10% 8.99%
New York Titans 14.07% 5.97%
Oakland Raiders 10.96% 4.04%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDallas TexansDenver BroncosHouston OilersNew York TitansOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots5.28%3.48%1.91%4.59%
Buffalo Bills3.33%2.14%1.08%2.44%
Dallas Texans5.77%3.36%7.36%3.45%
Denver Broncos3.07%1.76%3.35%1.78%
Houston Oilers8.23%4.95%3.05%6.92%
New York Titans1.98%1.36%0.88%1.75%
Oakland Raiders1.18%0.78%1.39%0.69%
San Diego Chargers3.92%2.21%4.38%2.18%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers 51.25% Eliminated in Championship Game
Dallas Texans 48.75% Won Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Dallas TexansHouston Oilers
Dallas Texans48.75%
Houston Oilers51.25%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Houston Oilers 51.25% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Dallas Texans
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
51.25%
Dallas Texans 48.75% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Houston Oilers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
48.75%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1962-09-08 @ Dallas Texans L 28-42 1507.34 1501.89 45.20% 52.55% -4.93 0-1
1962-09-16 Houston Oilers W 34-21 1502.41 1535.11 48.65% 49.11% +5.15 1-1
1962-09-21 Denver Broncos W 41-16 1507.56 1485.78 56.40% 41.35% +6.03 2-1
1962-10-06 @ New York Titans W 43-14 1513.59 1488.55 48.00% 49.75% +7.78 3-1
1962-10-12 Dallas Texans L 7-27 1521.37 1513.93 54.39% 43.37% -7.06 3-2
1962-10-19 San Diego Chargers W 24-20 1514.31 1511.24 53.77% 43.98% +2.57 4-2
1962-10-26 Oakland Raiders W 26-16 1516.88 1446.80 62.95% 34.81% +3.21 5-2
1962-11-03 @ Buffalo Bills T 28-28 1520.09 1490.56 48.65% 49.10% +0.01 5-2
1962-11-11 @ Denver Broncos W 33-29 1520.10 1503.39 46.81% 50.94% +2.95 6-2
1962-11-18 @ Houston Oilers L 17-21 1523.05 1540.93 41.90% 55.86% -2.44 6-3
1962-11-23 Buffalo Bills W 21-10 1520.61 1500.23 56.21% 41.55% +4.02 7-3
1962-11-30 New York Titans W 24-17 1524.63 1477.67 59.87% 37.88% +2.93 8-3
1962-12-09 @ San Diego Chargers W 20-14 1527.56 1493.12 49.36% 48.40% +3.44 9-3
1962-12-16 @ Oakland Raiders L 0-20 1531.00 1422.85 59.73% 38.02% -7.73 9-4
1962-09-09 Houston Oilers L 23-28 1493.67 1532.00 47.83% 49.92% -3.11 0-1
1962-09-15 Denver Broncos L 20-23 1490.56 1483.05 54.40% 43.36% -2.73 0-2
1962-09-22 New York Titans L 6-17 1487.83 1491.02 52.88% 44.88% -5.09 0-3
1962-09-30 @ Dallas Texans L 21-41 1482.74 1511.25 40.41% 57.34% -5.27 0-4
1962-10-07 @ Houston Oilers L 14-17 1477.47 1537.49 36.13% 61.62% -1.83 0-5
1962-10-13 San Diego Chargers W 35-10 1475.64 1518.58 47.17% 50.58% +7.34 1-5
1962-10-20 Oakland Raiders W 14-6 1482.98 1450.09 57.95% 39.81% +3.29 2-5
1962-10-28 @ Denver Broncos W 45-38 1486.27 1505.00 41.78% 55.98% +4.29 3-5
1962-11-03 Boston Patriots T 28-28 1490.56 1520.09 49.10% 48.65% -0.01 3-5
1962-11-11 @ San Diego Chargers W 40-20 1490.55 1499.54 43.15% 54.60% +7.08 4-5
1962-11-18 @ Oakland Raiders W 10-6 1497.63 1436.68 53.15% 44.60% +2.60 5-5
1962-11-23 @ Boston Patriots L 10-21 1500.23 1520.61 41.55% 56.21% -4.02 5-6
1962-12-02 Dallas Texans W 23-14 1496.21 1543.95 46.49% 51.26% +4.47 6-6
1962-12-08 @ New York Titans W 20-3 1500.68 1474.74 48.13% 49.62% +5.94 7-6
1962-09-08 Boston Patriots W 42-28 1501.89 1507.34 52.55% 45.20% +4.92 1-0
1962-09-23 @ Oakland Raiders W 26-16 1506.81 1471.62 49.46% 48.29% +4.44 2-0
1962-09-30 Buffalo Bills W 41-21 1511.25 1482.74 57.34% 40.41% +5.27 3-0
1962-10-07 @ San Diego Chargers L 28-32 1516.52 1515.99 44.50% 53.25% -2.59 3-1
1962-10-12 @ Boston Patriots W 27-7 1513.93 1521.37 43.37% 54.39% +7.05 4-1
1962-10-21 New York Titans W 20-17 1520.98 1474.14 59.85% 37.90% +1.92 5-1
1962-10-28 @ Houston Oilers W 31-7 1522.90 1541.27 41.83% 55.92% +7.94 6-1
1962-11-04 Houston Oilers L 6-14 1530.84 1533.33 52.98% 44.77% -4.35 6-2
1962-11-11 @ New York Titans W 52-31 1526.49 1482.31 50.76% 47.00% +6.26 7-2
1962-11-18 @ Denver Broncos W 24-3 1532.75 1500.44 49.05% 48.70% +6.49 8-2
1962-11-25 Oakland Raiders W 35-7 1539.24 1434.09 67.39% 30.37% +4.71 9-2
1962-12-02 @ Buffalo Bills L 14-23 1543.95 1496.21 51.26% 46.49% -4.47 9-3
1962-12-09 Denver Broncos W 17-10 1539.48 1487.88 60.50% 37.26% +2.88 10-3
1962-12-16 San Diego Chargers W 26-17 1542.36 1489.67 60.64% 37.11% +3.26 11-3
1962-09-07 San Diego Chargers W 30-21 1478.70 1517.50 47.77% 49.98% +4.35 1-0
1962-09-15 @ Buffalo Bills W 23-20 1483.05 1490.56 43.36% 54.40% +2.73 2-0
1962-09-21 @ Boston Patriots L 16-41 1485.78 1507.56 41.35% 56.40% -6.03 2-1
1962-09-30 @ New York Titans W 32-10 1479.75 1496.11 42.11% 55.64% +7.57 3-1
1962-10-05 Oakland Raiders W 44-7 1487.32 1463.09 56.74% 41.01% +7.27 4-1
1962-10-14 @ Oakland Raiders W 23-6 1494.59 1455.81 49.98% 47.77% +5.73 5-1
1962-10-21 Houston Oilers W 20-10 1500.32 1545.95 46.79% 50.96% +4.68 6-1
1962-10-28 Buffalo Bills L 38-45 1505.00 1486.27 55.98% 41.78% -4.30 6-2
1962-11-04 @ San Diego Chargers W 23-20 1500.70 1502.23 44.20% 53.55% +2.69 7-2
1962-11-11 Boston Patriots L 29-33 1503.39 1520.10 50.94% 46.81% -2.95 7-3
1962-11-18 Dallas Texans L 3-24 1500.44 1532.75 48.70% 49.05% -6.49 7-4
1962-11-22 New York Titans L 45-46 1493.95 1476.05 55.86% 41.89% -1.62 7-5
1962-12-02 @ Houston Oilers L 17-34 1492.33 1546.04 36.97% 60.78% -4.45 7-6
1962-12-09 @ Dallas Texans L 10-17 1487.88 1539.48 37.26% 60.50% -2.88 7-7
1962-09-09 @ Buffalo Bills W 28-23 1532.00 1493.67 49.92% 47.83% +3.11 1-0
1962-09-16 @ Boston Patriots L 21-34 1535.11 1502.41 49.11% 48.65% -5.14 1-1
1962-09-23 @ San Diego Chargers W 42-17 1529.97 1519.41 45.93% 51.82% +7.52 2-1
1962-10-07 Buffalo Bills W 17-14 1537.49 1477.47 61.62% 36.13% +1.83 3-1
1962-10-14 New York Titans W 56-17 1539.32 1480.77 61.43% 36.33% +6.63 4-1
1962-10-21 @ Denver Broncos L 10-20 1545.95 1500.32 50.96% 46.79% -4.68 4-2
1962-10-28 Dallas Texans L 7-31 1541.27 1522.90 55.92% 41.83% -7.94 4-3
1962-11-04 @ Dallas Texans W 14-6 1533.33 1530.84 44.77% 52.98% +4.34 5-3
1962-11-11 @ Oakland Raiders W 28-20 1537.67 1439.94 58.31% 39.44% +3.26 6-3
1962-11-18 Boston Patriots W 21-17 1540.93 1523.05 55.86% 41.90% +2.44 7-3
1962-11-25 San Diego Chargers W 33-27 1543.37 1492.46 60.40% 37.35% +2.67 8-3
1962-12-02 Denver Broncos W 34-17 1546.04 1492.33 60.78% 36.97% +4.46 9-3
1962-12-09 Oakland Raiders W 32-17 1550.50 1426.04 69.68% 28.08% +3.19 10-3
1962-12-15 @ New York Titans W 44-10 1553.69 1468.80 56.53% 41.22% +7.00 11-3
1962-09-09 @ Oakland Raiders W 28-17 1492.37 1476.53 46.68% 51.07% +4.92 1-0
1962-09-16 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-40 1497.29 1513.15 42.18% 55.57% -6.27 1-1
1962-09-22 @ Buffalo Bills W 17-6 1491.02 1487.83 44.88% 52.88% +5.09 2-1
1962-09-30 Denver Broncos L 10-32 1496.11 1479.75 55.64% 42.11% -7.56 2-2
1962-10-06 Boston Patriots L 14-43 1488.55 1513.59 49.75% 48.00% -7.78 2-3
1962-10-14 @ Houston Oilers L 17-56 1480.77 1539.32 36.33% 61.43% -6.63 2-4
1962-10-21 @ Dallas Texans L 17-20 1474.14 1520.98 37.90% 59.85% -1.92 2-5
1962-10-28 San Diego Chargers W 23-3 1472.22 1508.68 48.10% 49.65% +6.45 3-5
1962-11-04 Oakland Raiders W 31-21 1478.67 1443.58 58.25% 39.51% +3.64 4-5
1962-11-11 Dallas Texans L 31-52 1482.31 1526.49 47.00% 50.76% -6.26 4-6
1962-11-22 @ Denver Broncos W 46-45 1476.05 1493.95 41.89% 55.86% +1.62 5-6
1962-11-30 @ Boston Patriots L 17-24 1477.67 1524.63 37.88% 59.87% -2.93 5-7
1962-12-08 Buffalo Bills L 3-20 1474.74 1500.68 49.62% 48.13% -5.94 5-8
1962-12-15 Houston Oilers L 10-44 1468.80 1553.69 41.22% 56.53% -7.01 5-9
1962-09-09 New York Titans L 17-28 1476.53 1492.37 51.07% 46.68% -4.91 0-1
1962-09-23 Dallas Texans L 16-26 1471.62 1506.81 48.29% 49.46% -4.44 0-2
1962-09-30 San Diego Chargers L 33-42 1467.18 1511.89 46.92% 50.83% -4.09 0-3
1962-10-05 @ Denver Broncos L 7-44 1463.09 1487.32 41.01% 56.74% -7.28 0-4
1962-10-14 Denver Broncos L 6-23 1455.81 1494.59 47.77% 49.98% -5.72 0-5
1962-10-20 @ Buffalo Bills L 6-14 1450.09 1482.98 39.81% 57.95% -3.29 0-6
1962-10-26 @ Boston Patriots L 16-26 1446.80 1516.88 34.81% 62.95% -3.22 0-7
1962-11-04 @ New York Titans L 21-31 1443.58 1478.67 39.51% 58.25% -3.64 0-8
1962-11-11 Houston Oilers L 20-28 1439.94 1537.67 39.44% 58.31% -3.26 0-9
1962-11-18 Buffalo Bills L 6-10 1436.68 1497.63 44.60% 53.15% -2.59 0-10
1962-11-25 @ Dallas Texans L 7-35 1434.09 1539.24 30.37% 67.39% -4.71 0-11
1962-12-02 @ San Diego Chargers L 21-31 1429.38 1489.79 36.08% 61.68% -3.34 0-12
1962-12-09 @ Houston Oilers L 17-32 1426.04 1550.50 28.08% 69.68% -3.19 0-13
1962-12-16 Boston Patriots W 20-0 1422.85 1531.00 38.02% 59.73% +7.74 1-13
1962-09-07 @ Denver Broncos L 21-30 1517.50 1478.70 49.98% 47.77% -4.35 0-1
1962-09-16 New York Titans W 40-14 1513.15 1497.29 55.57% 42.18% +6.26 1-1
1962-09-23 Houston Oilers L 17-42 1519.41 1529.97 51.82% 45.93% -7.52 1-2
1962-09-30 @ Oakland Raiders W 42-33 1511.89 1467.18 50.83% 46.92% +4.10 2-2
1962-10-07 Dallas Texans W 32-28 1515.99 1516.52 53.25% 44.50% +2.59 3-2
1962-10-13 @ Buffalo Bills L 10-35 1518.58 1475.64 50.58% 47.17% -7.34 3-3
1962-10-19 @ Boston Patriots L 20-24 1511.24 1514.31 43.98% 53.77% -2.56 3-4
1962-10-28 @ New York Titans L 3-23 1508.68 1472.22 49.65% 48.10% -6.45 3-5
1962-11-04 Denver Broncos L 20-23 1502.23 1500.70 53.55% 44.20% -2.69 3-6
1962-11-11 Buffalo Bills L 20-40 1499.54 1490.55 54.60% 43.15% -7.08 3-7
1962-11-25 @ Houston Oilers L 27-33 1492.46 1543.37 37.35% 60.40% -2.67 3-8
1962-12-02 Oakland Raiders W 31-21 1489.79 1429.38 61.68% 36.08% +3.33 4-8
1962-12-09 Boston Patriots L 14-20 1493.12 1527.56 48.40% 49.36% -3.45 4-9
1962-12-16 @ Dallas Texans L 17-26 1489.67 1542.36 37.11% 60.64% -3.25 4-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1962-12-23 @ Houston Oilers W 20-17 1545.62 1560.69 43.39% 56.61% +2.78 1-0
1962-12-23 Dallas Texans L 17-20 1560.69 1545.62 56.61% 43.39% -2.78 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1962-12-16 38.02% @ Oakland Raiders 1422.85 20 Boston Patriots 1531.00 0
2 1962-10-28 41.78% Buffalo Bills 1486.27 45 @ Denver Broncos 1505.00 38
3 1962-10-28 41.83% Dallas Texans 1522.90 31 @ Houston Oilers 1541.27 7
4 1962-11-22 41.89% New York Titans 1476.05 46 @ Denver Broncos 1493.95 45
5 1962-09-30 42.11% Denver Broncos 1479.75 32 @ New York Titans 1496.11 10
6 1962-11-11 43.15% Buffalo Bills 1490.55 40 @ San Diego Chargers 1499.54 20
7 1962-09-15 43.36% Denver Broncos 1483.05 23 @ Buffalo Bills 1490.56 20
8 1962-10-12 43.37% Dallas Texans 1513.93 27 @ Boston Patriots 1521.37 7
9 1962-12-23 * 43.39% Dallas Texans 1545.62 20 @ Houston Oilers 1560.69 17
10 1962-11-04 44.20% Denver Broncos 1500.70 23 @ San Diego Chargers 1502.23 20
11 1962-11-04 44.77% Houston Oilers 1533.33 14 @ Dallas Texans 1530.84 6
12 1962-09-22 44.88% New York Titans 1491.02 17 @ Buffalo Bills 1487.83 6
13 1962-09-23 45.93% Houston Oilers 1529.97 42 @ San Diego Chargers 1519.41 17
14 1962-12-02 46.49% @ Buffalo Bills 1496.21 23 Dallas Texans 1543.95 14
15 1962-09-09 46.68% New York Titans 1492.37 28 @ Oakland Raiders 1476.53 17
16 1962-10-21 46.79% @ Denver Broncos 1500.32 20 Houston Oilers 1545.95 10
17 1962-11-11 46.81% Boston Patriots 1520.10 33 @ Denver Broncos 1503.39 29
18 1962-10-13 47.17% @ Buffalo Bills 1475.64 35 San Diego Chargers 1518.58 10
19 1962-09-07 47.77% @ Denver Broncos 1478.70 30 San Diego Chargers 1517.50 21
20 1962-10-06 48.00% Boston Patriots 1513.59 43 @ New York Titans 1488.55 14
21 1962-10-28 48.10% @ New York Titans 1472.22 23 San Diego Chargers 1508.68 3
22 1962-12-08 48.13% Buffalo Bills 1500.68 20 @ New York Titans 1474.74 3
23 1962-09-16 48.65% @ Boston Patriots 1502.41 34 Houston Oilers 1535.11 21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1962-10-28 7.94 Dallas Texans 31 1522.90 41.83% @ Houston Oilers 7 1541.27 55.92%
2 1962-10-06 7.78 Boston Patriots 43 1513.59 48.00% @ New York Titans 14 1488.55 49.75%
3 1962-12-16 7.74 @ Oakland Raiders 20 1422.85 38.02% Boston Patriots 0 1531.00 59.73%
4 1962-09-30 7.57 Denver Broncos 32 1479.75 42.11% @ New York Titans 10 1496.11 55.64%
5 1962-09-23 7.52 Houston Oilers 42 1529.97 45.93% @ San Diego Chargers 17 1519.41 51.82%
6 1962-10-13 7.34 @ Buffalo Bills 35 1475.64 47.17% San Diego Chargers 10 1518.58 50.58%
7 1962-10-05 7.28 @ Denver Broncos 44 1487.32 56.74% Oakland Raiders 7 1463.09 41.01%
8 1962-11-11 7.08 Buffalo Bills 40 1490.55 43.15% @ San Diego Chargers 20 1499.54 54.60%
9 1962-10-12 7.06 Dallas Texans 27 1513.93 43.37% @ Boston Patriots 7 1521.37 54.39%
10 1962-12-15 7.01 Houston Oilers 44 1553.69 56.53% @ New York Titans 10 1468.80 41.22%
11 1962-10-14 6.63 @ Houston Oilers 56 1539.32 61.43% New York Titans 17 1480.77 36.33%
12 1962-11-18 6.49 Dallas Texans 24 1532.75 49.05% @ Denver Broncos 3 1500.44 48.70%
13 1962-10-28 6.45 @ New York Titans 23 1472.22 48.10% San Diego Chargers 3 1508.68 49.65%
14 1962-09-16 6.27 @ San Diego Chargers 40 1513.15 55.57% New York Titans 14 1497.29 42.18%
15 1962-11-11 6.26 Dallas Texans 52 1526.49 50.76% @ New York Titans 31 1482.31 47.00%
16 1962-09-21 6.03 @ Boston Patriots 41 1507.56 56.40% Denver Broncos 16 1485.78 41.35%
17 1962-12-08 5.94 Buffalo Bills 20 1500.68 48.13% @ New York Titans 3 1474.74 49.62%
18 1962-10-14 5.73 Denver Broncos 23 1494.59 49.98% @ Oakland Raiders 6 1455.81 47.77%
19 1962-09-30 5.27 @ Dallas Texans 41 1511.25 57.34% Buffalo Bills 21 1482.74 40.41%
20 1962-09-16 5.15 @ Boston Patriots 34 1502.41 48.65% Houston Oilers 21 1535.11 49.11%
21 1962-09-22 5.09 New York Titans 17 1491.02 44.88% @ Buffalo Bills 6 1487.83 52.88%
22 1962-09-08 4.93 @ Dallas Texans 42 1501.89 52.55% Boston Patriots 28 1507.34 45.20%
23 1962-09-09 4.92 New York Titans 28 1492.37 46.68% @ Oakland Raiders 17 1476.53 51.07%
24 1962-11-25 4.71 @ Dallas Texans 35 1539.24 67.39% Oakland Raiders 7 1434.09 30.37%
25 1962-10-21 4.68 @ Denver Broncos 20 1500.32 46.79% Houston Oilers 10 1545.95 50.96%