1961 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

2nd Title

Last Title: 1960

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1960

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Oilers

1.33 wins above expected

10 wins · 9.17 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

2.11 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.11 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	10	3	1	.750	-	513	242	+271	9.17	+1.33
2	Boston Patriots	9	4	1	.679	1	413	313	+100	8.34	+1.16
3	New York Titans	7	7	0	.500	3.5	301	390	-89	6.39	+0.61
4	Buffalo Bills	6	8	0	.429	4.5	294	342	-48	6.29	-0.29

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	12	2	.857	-	396	219	+177	10.82	+1.18
2	Dallas Texans	6	8	.429	6	334	343	-9	6.40	-0.40
3	Denver Broncos	3	11	.214	9	251	432	-181	4.50	-1.50
4	Oakland Raiders	2	12	.143	10	237	458	-221	4.11	-2.11

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 10

San Diego Chargers 3

Dec 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Houston Oilers	East	1905	10.5	9.17	+1.33	93.63%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Boston Patriots	East	1801	9.5	8.34	+1.16	91.93%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1602	12	10.82	+1.18	89.55%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Texans	West	1482	6	6.40	-0.40	55.49%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Titans	East	1438	7	6.39	+0.61	76.76%	0	4	5	6	7	9	13
Buffalo Bills	East	1414	6	6.29	-0.29	58.29%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Denver Broncos	West	1192	3	4.50	-1.50	29.80%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Oakland Raiders	West	1166	2	4.11	-2.11	17.40%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Boston Patriots	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
New York Titans	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Titans	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Dallas Texans	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Dallas Texans	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	0.89%	—	—	1.79%	1.79%	4.46%
7–13	—	—	1.79%	6.25%	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	15.18%
14–20	0.89%	1.79%	5.36%	3.57%	2.68%	—	3.57%	17.86%
21–27	—	6.25%	3.57%	8.93%	3.57%	2.68%	2.68%	27.68%
28–34	—	2.68%	2.68%	3.57%	1.79%	2.68%	—	13.39%
35–41	1.79%	1.79%	—	2.68%	2.68%	—	0.89%	9.82%
42+	1.79%	2.68%	3.57%	2.68%	—	0.89%	—	11.61%
Total	4.46%	15.18%	17.86%	27.68%	13.39%	9.82%	11.61%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.46	24.46	+0.00
SD	12.47	12.47	21.11
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	55	55	+55
Min	0	0	-55

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	—	21.43%	50.00%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.50	22.36	+7.14
SD	10.70	9.42	15.94
CV	0.36	0.42	—
Max	52	38	+41
Min	15	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	24.43	-3.43
SD	8.61	10.06	12.74
CV	0.41	0.41	—
Max	41	52	+13
Min	10	10	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

Dallas Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.86	24.50	-0.64
SD	13.61	7.65	17.46
CV	0.57	0.31	—
Max	49	38	+32
Min	7	11	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	30.86	-12.93
SD	7.77	14.25	17.91
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	28	55	+17
Min	0	10	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	36.64	17.29	+19.36
SD	13.47	8.99	20.16
CV	0.37	0.52	—
Max	55	34	+55
Min	12	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	100%

New York Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	27.86	-6.36
SD	8.90	14.97	17.96
CV	0.41	0.54	—
Max	37	49	+21
Min	10	6	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	28.57%	—	14.29%	35.71%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.93	32.71	-15.79
SD	11.32	12.65	19.94
CV	0.67	0.39	—
Max	35	55	+14
Min	0	14	-55

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.29	15.64	+12.64
SD	13.13	11.74	22.42
CV	0.46	0.75	—
Max	48	41	+44
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.71	+0.3
Allowed	0.91	-0.4
Differential	0.86	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	10.5	9.17	+1.33
2	San Diego Chargers	12	10.82	+1.18
3	Boston Patriots	9.5	8.34	+1.16
4	New York Titans	7	6.39	+0.61
5	Buffalo Bills	6	6.29	-0.29

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	2	4.11	-2.11
2	Denver Broncos	3	4.50	-1.50
3	Dallas Texans	6	6.40	-0.40
4	Buffalo Bills	6	6.29	-0.29
5	New York Titans	7	6.39	+0.61

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	9	Oct 22 – Dec 17	1 in 32
2	San Diego Chargers	11	Sep 10 – Nov 19	1 in 22
3	Denver Broncos	2	Oct 15 – Oct 22	1 in 9
4	Boston Patriots	4	Nov 17 – Dec 17	1 in 6
5	Buffalo Bills	2	Oct 8 – Oct 15	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Texans	6	Oct 15 – Nov 19	1 in 23
2	Houston Oilers	3	Sep 24 – Oct 8	1 in 15
3	Buffalo Bills	3	Oct 22 – Nov 5	1 in 12
4	Denver Broncos	7	Oct 29 – Dec 10	1 in 6
5	Oakland Raiders	6	Nov 11 – Dec 17	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	55.17%	29.63%	11.50%	3.71%
Boston Patriots	32.31%	37.07%	20.69%	9.93%
New York Titans	5.84%	17.13%	35.47%	41.55%
Buffalo Bills	6.68%	16.17%	32.34%	44.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	96.29%	3.51%	0.18%	0.01%
Dallas Texans	3.18%	64.66%	22.79%	9.37%
Denver Broncos	0.28%	17.70%	42.16%	39.86%
Oakland Raiders	0.25%	14.13%	34.87%	50.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
San Diego Chargers	65.43%	22.94%	8.11%	2.50%	0.75%	0.21%	0.05%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	20.92%	34.75%	23.19%	11.85%	6.01%	2.38%	0.74%	0.15%
Boston Patriots	9.88%	24.52%	28.30%	18.11%	10.60%	5.66%	2.30%	0.63%
New York Titans	1.15%	5.37%	12.87%	20.53%	21.21%	18.58%	13.32%	6.96%
Dallas Texans	1.24%	5.81%	12.12%	19.25%	21.56%	19.41%	13.32%	7.28%
Buffalo Bills	1.28%	5.72%	11.85%	17.99%	20.73%	20.00%	14.29%	8.13%
Denver Broncos	0.06%	0.59%	2.22%	5.78%	10.78%	18.40%	28.87%	33.31%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.31%	1.34%	3.98%	8.36%	15.34%	27.11%	43.53%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Houston Oilers	55.17%	44.83%
Boston Patriots	32.31%	67.69%
Buffalo Bills	6.68%	93.32%
New York Titans	5.84%	94.16%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	96.29%	3.71%
Dallas Texans	3.18%	96.82%
Denver Broncos	0.28%	99.72%
Oakland Raiders	0.25%	99.75%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+8.93%

Clear Edge

53.57%1.79%44.64%

Elo Value

Home Edge

22 Elo

0.046 points per Elo point

031.1060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+4.38 points

Home-Tilted

-8+1.44+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.9

Few Contenders

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

47%

Houston Oilers, 1st of 8

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

85.0%

Favored

050.00%150%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.32 · As Expected: 1.32 to 1.81 · Elevated: 1.81 to 2.47 · High Variance: 2.47 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.92 · Close: 0.92 to 1.24 · Off Target: 1.24 to 1.62 · Well Off Target: 1.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.38 · As Expected: 0.38 to 0.62 · More Than Expected: 0.62 to 1 · Far More Than Expected: 1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.36 wins

As Expected

01.654

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.25

Pinpoint

01.082.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

93.63%

Houston Oilers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

17.40%

Oakland Raiders

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 8

Minimal Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.23

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

84%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

14%

Mostly Decisive

0%13%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Predictable

00.191

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.73

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.66

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 · Within Noise: 0.1 to 0.2 · Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.39 · Well Above Noise: 0.39 and up.

Probability calibration

0.22

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.167

Within Noise

00.1960.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers	55.17%	47.02%
Boston Patriots	32.31%	24.71%
San Diego Chargers	96.29%	24.32%
Buffalo Bills	6.68%	1.73%
New York Titans	5.84%	1.69%
Dallas Texans	3.18%	0.51%
Denver Broncos	0.28%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.25%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Texans	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	New York Titans
Boston Patriots	87.5%1.03%	96.7%0.09%	98.8%0.08%	76.0%31.10%
Buffalo Bills	35.5%0.21%	77.3%0.02%	70.0%0.01%	25.4%6.44%
Houston Oilers	91.8%1.76%	100.0%0.16%	98.0%0.15%	84.9%53.11%
New York Titans	44.1%0.18%	66.7%0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	28.3%5.64%
Dallas Texans					12.5%1.03%	64.5%0.21%	8.2%1.76%	55.9%0.18%
Denver Broncos					3.3%0.09%	22.7%0.02%	0.0%0.16%	33.3%0.01%
Oakland Raiders					1.2%0.08%	30.0%0.01%	2.0%0.15%	44.4%<0.01%
San Diego Chargers					24.0%31.10%	74.6%6.44%	15.1%53.11%	71.7%5.64%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers	84.95%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	15.05%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	San Diego Chargers	Houston Oilers
Houston Oilers	85.0%100.00%
San Diego Chargers		15.0%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Houston Oilers 84.95% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

84.95%

San Diego Chargers 15.05% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.05%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-09-09	New York Titans	L 20-21	1485.67	1495.87	51.88%	45.88%	-19.71	0-1
1961-09-16	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1465.96	1554.44	40.75%	57.06%	+114.50	1-1
1961-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-21	1580.46	1491.31	57.15%	40.66%	+21.95	2-1
1961-10-01	@ New York Titans	L 30-37	1602.41	1490.24	60.33%	37.52%	-60.48	2-2
1961-10-07	San Diego Chargers	L 27-38	1541.93	1719.56	29.27%	68.80%	-37.10	2-3
1961-10-13	Houston Oilers	T 31-31	1504.83	1454.03	60.44%	37.41%	-2.15	2-3
1961-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 52-21	1502.68	1553.81	46.00%	51.76%	+109.49	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Dallas Texans	W 18-17	1612.17	1406.61	72.09%	26.10%	+9.98	4-3
1961-11-03	Dallas Texans	W 28-21	1622.15	1396.64	80.41%	18.15%	+18.28	5-3
1961-11-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 15-27	1640.43	1681.19	38.77%	59.07%	-51.28	5-4
1961-11-17	Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1589.15	1310.82	84.68%	14.12%	+9.29	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1598.44	1270.91	83.71%	15.04%	+11.43	7-4
1961-12-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 35-21	1609.87	1182.87	90.01%	9.15%	+12.92	8-4
1961-12-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-0	1622.79	1780.25	24.59%	73.66%	+178.01	9-4
1961-09-10	Denver Broncos	L 10-22	1494.52	1481.98	55.12%	42.66%	-72.47	0-1
1961-09-17	New York Titans	W 41-31	1422.05	1515.59	40.05%	57.76%	+69.26	1-1
1961-09-23	Boston Patriots	L 21-23	1491.31	1580.46	40.66%	57.15%	-21.94	1-2
1961-09-30	San Diego Chargers	L 11-19	1469.37	1693.51	24.12%	74.15%	-26.05	1-3
1961-10-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 22-12	1443.32	1532.40	32.46%	65.51%	+78.37	2-3
1961-10-15	Dallas Texans	W 27-24	1521.69	1551.93	49.00%	48.75%	+32.12	3-3
1961-10-22	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-52	1553.81	1502.68	51.76%	46.00%	-109.49	3-4
1961-10-29	Houston Oilers	L 16-28	1444.32	1569.38	35.82%	62.07%	-47.41	3-5
1961-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 22-31	1396.91	1275.40	69.54%	28.56%	-78.83	3-6
1961-11-12	@ Dallas Texans	W 30-20	1318.08	1378.35	36.16%	61.72%	+73.92	4-6
1961-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1392.00	1344.86	51.18%	46.57%	+63.95	5-6
1961-11-23	@ New York Titans	L 14-21	1455.95	1437.43	47.07%	50.68%	-47.41	5-7
1961-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 26-21	1408.54	1205.40	71.81%	26.36%	+22.52	6-7
1961-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-28	1431.06	1762.87	10.83%	88.20%	-17.38	6-8
1961-09-10	San Diego Chargers	L 10-26	1521.32	1510.04	54.94%	42.84%	-83.41	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 42-35	1437.91	1327.64	60.07%	37.78%	+38.18	1-1
1961-10-01	Houston Oilers	W 26-21	1476.09	1582.90	38.24%	59.60%	+50.50	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-12	1526.59	1311.58	73.15%	25.08%	+25.34	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1551.93	1521.69	48.75%	49.00%	-32.13	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-38	1519.80	1456.18	53.54%	44.23%	-113.19	3-3
1961-10-29	Boston Patriots	L 17-18	1406.61	1612.17	26.10%	72.09%	-9.97	3-4
1961-11-03	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-28	1396.64	1622.15	18.15%	80.41%	-18.29	3-5
1961-11-12	Buffalo Bills	L 20-30	1378.35	1318.08	61.72%	36.16%	-73.92	3-6
1961-11-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-24	1304.43	1853.63	3.40%	96.24%	-4.02	3-7
1961-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 43-11	1300.41	1301.54	53.18%	44.59%	+96.13	4-7
1961-12-03	@ New York Titans	L 7-28	1396.54	1484.85	32.56%	65.41%	-57.02	4-8
1961-12-10	Denver Broncos	W 49-21	1339.52	1259.48	64.34%	33.60%	+67.95	5-8
1961-12-17	New York Titans	W 35-24	1407.47	1512.63	38.47%	59.37%	+74.62	6-8
1961-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-10	1481.98	1494.52	42.66%	55.12%	+72.46	1-0
1961-09-16	@ Boston Patriots	L 17-45	1554.44	1465.96	57.06%	40.75%	-114.50	1-1
1961-09-24	@ New York Titans	L 28-35	1439.94	1446.33	43.53%	54.25%	-43.91	1-2
1961-10-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 19-33	1396.03	1289.46	59.57%	38.28%	-84.45	1-3
1961-10-08	Dallas Texans	L 12-19	1311.58	1526.59	25.08%	73.15%	-25.35	1-4
1961-10-15	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1286.23	1373.92	40.86%	56.94%	+37.41	2-4
1961-10-22	New York Titans	W 27-10	1323.64	1512.16	28.00%	70.11%	+109.21	3-4
1961-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-37	1432.85	1811.49	8.51%	90.69%	-19.54	3-5
1961-11-05	Houston Oilers	L 14-55	1413.31	1616.78	26.33%	71.85%	-64.41	3-6
1961-11-12	San Diego Chargers	L 16-19	1348.90	1849.58	6.21%	93.18%	-4.04	3-7
1961-11-19	Buffalo Bills	L 10-23	1344.86	1392.00	46.57%	51.18%	-63.95	3-8
1961-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-45	1280.91	1767.68	4.78%	94.73%	-10.00	3-9
1961-12-03	Boston Patriots	L 24-28	1270.91	1598.44	15.04%	83.71%	-11.43	3-10
1961-12-10	@ Dallas Texans	L 21-49	1259.48	1339.52	33.60%	64.34%	-67.95	3-11
1961-09-09	Oakland Raiders	W 55-0	1526.12	1484.48	59.19%	38.65%	+109.45	1-0
1961-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-34	1635.57	1640.84	43.68%	54.09%	-52.67	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Dallas Texans	L 21-26	1582.90	1476.09	59.60%	38.24%	-50.50	1-2
1961-10-08	Buffalo Bills	L 12-22	1532.40	1443.32	65.51%	32.46%	-78.37	1-3
1961-10-13	@ Boston Patriots	T 31-31	1454.03	1504.83	37.41%	60.44%	+2.15	1-3
1961-10-22	Dallas Texans	W 38-7	1456.18	1519.80	44.23%	53.54%	+113.20	2-3
1961-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-16	1569.38	1444.32	62.07%	35.82%	+47.40	3-3
1961-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 55-14	1616.78	1413.31	71.85%	26.33%	+64.41	4-3
1961-11-12	Boston Patriots	W 27-15	1681.19	1640.43	59.07%	38.77%	+51.28	5-3
1961-11-19	New York Titans	W 49-13	1732.47	1472.64	83.28%	15.44%	+35.21	6-3
1961-11-26	Denver Broncos	W 45-14	1767.68	1280.91	94.73%	4.78%	+10.00	7-3
1961-12-03	San Diego Chargers	W 33-13	1777.68	1857.65	41.93%	55.86%	+94.78	8-3
1961-12-10	@ New York Titans	W 48-21	1872.46	1541.88	83.94%	14.82%	+29.25	9-3
1961-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 47-16	1901.71	1169.95	98.07%	1.73%	+3.60	10-3
1961-09-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 21-20	1495.87	1485.67	45.88%	51.88%	+19.72	1-0
1961-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-41	1515.59	1422.05	57.76%	40.05%	-69.26	1-1
1961-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 35-28	1446.33	1439.94	54.25%	43.53%	+43.91	2-1
1961-10-01	Boston Patriots	W 37-30	1490.24	1602.41	37.52%	60.33%	+60.47	3-1
1961-10-15	San Diego Chargers	L 10-25	1550.71	1756.66	26.06%	72.13%	-38.55	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-27	1512.16	1323.64	70.11%	28.00%	-109.21	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 14-6	1402.95	1320.24	56.25%	41.55%	+44.84	4-3
1961-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-48	1447.79	1831.03	8.31%	90.91%	-18.55	4-4
1961-11-11	Oakland Raiders	W 23-12	1429.24	1354.22	63.69%	34.24%	+43.40	5-4
1961-11-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-49	1472.64	1732.47	15.44%	83.28%	-35.21	5-5
1961-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 21-14	1437.43	1455.95	50.68%	47.07%	+47.42	6-5
1961-12-03	Dallas Texans	W 28-7	1484.85	1396.54	65.41%	32.56%	+57.03	7-5
1961-12-10	Houston Oilers	L 21-48	1541.88	1872.46	14.82%	83.94%	-29.25	7-6
1961-12-17	@ Dallas Texans	L 24-35	1512.63	1407.47	59.37%	38.47%	-74.63	7-7
1961-09-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-55	1484.48	1526.12	38.65%	59.19%	-109.45	0-1
1961-09-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-44	1375.03	1593.45	18.75%	79.77%	-47.39	0-2
1961-09-24	Dallas Texans	L 35-42	1327.64	1437.91	37.78%	60.07%	-38.18	0-3
1961-10-01	Denver Broncos	W 33-19	1289.46	1396.03	38.28%	59.57%	+84.46	1-3
1961-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1373.92	1286.23	56.94%	40.86%	-37.41	1-4
1961-10-22	San Diego Chargers	L 10-41	1336.51	1795.21	7.75%	91.51%	-16.27	1-5
1961-10-29	New York Titans	L 6-14	1320.24	1402.95	41.55%	56.25%	-44.84	1-6
1961-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-22	1275.40	1396.91	28.56%	69.54%	+78.82	2-6
1961-11-11	@ New York Titans	L 12-23	1354.22	1429.24	34.24%	63.69%	-43.40	2-7
1961-11-17	@ Boston Patriots	L 17-20	1310.82	1589.15	14.12%	84.68%	-9.28	2-8
1961-11-26	@ Dallas Texans	L 11-43	1301.54	1300.41	44.59%	53.18%	-96.14	2-9
1961-12-03	Buffalo Bills	L 21-26	1205.40	1408.54	26.36%	71.81%	-22.53	2-10
1961-12-09	Boston Patriots	L 21-35	1182.87	1609.87	9.15%	90.01%	-12.92	2-11
1961-12-17	Houston Oilers	L 16-47	1169.95	1901.71	1.73%	98.07%	-3.60	2-12
1961-09-10	@ Dallas Texans	W 26-10	1510.04	1521.32	42.84%	54.94%	+83.41	1-0
1961-09-17	Oakland Raiders	W 44-0	1593.45	1375.03	79.77%	18.75%	+47.39	2-0
1961-09-24	Houston Oilers	W 34-24	1640.84	1635.57	54.09%	43.68%	+52.67	3-0
1961-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-11	1693.51	1469.37	74.15%	24.12%	+26.05	4-0
1961-10-07	@ Boston Patriots	W 38-27	1719.56	1541.93	68.80%	29.27%	+37.10	5-0
1961-10-15	@ New York Titans	W 25-10	1756.66	1550.71	72.13%	26.06%	+38.55	6-0
1961-10-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-10	1795.21	1336.51	91.51%	7.75%	+16.28	7-0
1961-10-29	Denver Broncos	W 37-0	1811.49	1432.85	90.69%	8.51%	+19.54	8-0
1961-11-05	New York Titans	W 48-13	1831.03	1447.79	90.91%	8.31%	+18.55	9-0
1961-11-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1849.58	1348.90	93.18%	6.21%	+4.05	10-0
1961-11-19	Dallas Texans	W 24-14	1853.63	1304.43	96.24%	3.40%	+4.02	11-0
1961-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-33	1857.65	1777.68	55.86%	41.93%	-94.78	11-1
1961-12-10	Buffalo Bills	W 28-10	1762.87	1431.06	88.20%	10.83%	+17.38	12-1
1961-12-17	Boston Patriots	L 0-41	1780.25	1622.79	73.66%	24.59%	-178.01	12-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 10-3	1905.31	1602.24	82.72%	17.28%	+17.01	1-0
1961-12-24	Houston Oilers	L 3-10	1602.24	1905.31	17.28%	82.72%	-17.01	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1961-12-17	24.59%	Boston Patriots	1622.79	41	@ San Diego Chargers	1780.25	0
2	1961-10-22	28.00%	@ Denver Broncos	1323.64	27	New York Titans	1512.16	10
3	1961-11-05	28.56%	Oakland Raiders	1275.40	31	@ Buffalo Bills	1396.91	22
4	1961-10-08	32.46%	Buffalo Bills	1443.32	22	@ Houston Oilers	1532.40	12
5	1961-11-12	36.16%	Buffalo Bills	1318.08	30	@ Dallas Texans	1378.35	20
6	1961-10-01	37.52%	@ New York Titans	1490.24	37	Boston Patriots	1602.41	30
7	1961-10-01	38.24%	@ Dallas Texans	1476.09	26	Houston Oilers	1582.90	21
8	1961-10-01	38.28%	@ Oakland Raiders	1289.46	33	Denver Broncos	1396.03	19
9	1961-12-17	38.47%	@ Dallas Texans	1407.47	35	New York Titans	1512.63	24
10	1961-09-17	40.05%	@ Buffalo Bills	1422.05	41	New York Titans	1515.59	31
11	1961-09-16	40.75%	@ Boston Patriots	1465.96	45	Denver Broncos	1554.44	17
12	1961-10-15	40.86%	@ Denver Broncos	1286.23	27	Oakland Raiders	1373.92	24
13	1961-12-03	41.93%	@ Houston Oilers	1777.68	33	San Diego Chargers	1857.65	13
14	1961-09-10	42.66%	Denver Broncos	1481.98	22	@ Buffalo Bills	1494.52	10
15	1961-09-10	42.84%	San Diego Chargers	1510.04	26	@ Dallas Texans	1521.32	10
16	1961-10-22	44.23%	@ Houston Oilers	1456.18	38	Dallas Texans	1519.80	7
17	1961-09-09	45.88%	New York Titans	1495.87	21	@ Boston Patriots	1485.67	20
18	1961-10-22	46.00%	@ Boston Patriots	1502.68	52	Buffalo Bills	1553.81	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1961-12-17	178.01	Boston Patriots	41	1622.79	24.59%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1780.25	73.66%
2	1961-09-16	114.50	@ Boston Patriots	45	1465.96	40.75%	Denver Broncos	17	1554.44	57.06%
3	1961-10-22	113.20	@ Houston Oilers	38	1456.18	44.23%	Dallas Texans	7	1519.80	53.54%
4	1961-10-22	109.49	@ Boston Patriots	52	1502.68	46.00%	Buffalo Bills	21	1553.81	51.76%
5	1961-09-09	109.45	@ Houston Oilers	55	1526.12	59.19%	Oakland Raiders	0	1484.48	38.65%
6	1961-10-22	109.21	@ Denver Broncos	27	1323.64	28.00%	New York Titans	10	1512.16	70.11%
7	1961-11-26	96.14	@ Dallas Texans	43	1300.41	53.18%	Oakland Raiders	11	1301.54	44.59%
8	1961-12-03	94.78	@ Houston Oilers	33	1777.68	41.93%	San Diego Chargers	13	1857.65	55.86%
9	1961-10-01	84.46	@ Oakland Raiders	33	1289.46	38.28%	Denver Broncos	19	1396.03	59.57%
10	1961-09-10	83.41	San Diego Chargers	26	1510.04	42.84%	@ Dallas Texans	10	1521.32	54.94%
11	1961-11-05	78.83	Oakland Raiders	31	1275.40	28.56%	@ Buffalo Bills	22	1396.91	69.54%
12	1961-10-08	78.37	Buffalo Bills	22	1443.32	32.46%	@ Houston Oilers	12	1532.40	65.51%
13	1961-12-17	74.63	@ Dallas Texans	35	1407.47	38.47%	New York Titans	24	1512.63	59.37%
14	1961-11-12	73.92	Buffalo Bills	30	1318.08	36.16%	@ Dallas Texans	20	1378.35	61.72%
15	1961-09-10	72.47	Denver Broncos	22	1481.98	42.66%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1494.52	55.12%
16	1961-09-17	69.26	@ Buffalo Bills	41	1422.05	40.05%	New York Titans	31	1515.59	57.76%
17	1961-12-10	67.95	@ Dallas Texans	49	1339.52	64.34%	Denver Broncos	21	1259.48	33.60%
18	1961-11-05	64.41	Houston Oilers	55	1616.78	71.85%	@ Denver Broncos	14	1413.31	26.33%
19	1961-11-19	63.95	Buffalo Bills	23	1392.00	51.18%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1344.86	46.57%
20	1961-10-01	60.48	@ New York Titans	37	1490.24	37.52%	Boston Patriots	30	1602.41	60.33%
21	1961-12-03	57.03	@ New York Titans	28	1484.85	65.41%	Dallas Texans	7	1396.54	32.56%
22	1961-09-24	52.67	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1640.84	54.09%	Houston Oilers	24	1635.57	43.68%
23	1961-11-12	51.28	@ Houston Oilers	27	1681.19	59.07%	Boston Patriots	15	1640.43	38.77%
24	1961-10-01	50.50	@ Dallas Texans	26	1476.09	38.24%	Houston Oilers	21	1582.90	59.60%
25	1961-11-23	47.42	@ New York Titans	21	1437.43	50.68%	Buffalo Bills	14	1455.95	47.07%