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1961 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

2nd Title

Last Title: 1960

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1960

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

4.28 wins above expected

12 wins · 7.72 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

4.37 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.37 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Houston Oilers Division 10 3 1 .750 — 513 242 +271 7.62 +2.88
2 Boston Patriots 9 4 1 .679 1 413 313 +100 6.95 +2.55
3 New York Titans 7 7 0 .500 3.5 301 390 -89 6.81 +0.19
4 Buffalo Bills 6 8 0 .429 4.5 294 342 -48 6.84 -0.84
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Diego Chargers Division 12 2 0 .857 — 396 219 +177 7.72 +4.28
2 Dallas Texans 6 8 0 .429 6 334 343 -9 7.22 -1.22
3 Denver Broncos 3 11 0 .214 9 251 432 -181 6.47 -3.47
4 Oakland Raiders 2 12 0 .143 10 237 458 -221 6.37 -4.37

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 10
San Diego Chargers 3

Dec 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Houston Oilers East 1560 10.5 7.62 +2.88 98.76% 1 4 6 7 9 10 14
San Diego Chargers West 1545 12 7.72 +4.28 99.74% 0 5 6 8 9 11 14
Boston Patriots East 1517 9.5 6.95 +2.55 97.70% 0 4 6 7 8 10 13
Dallas Texans West 1504 6 7.22 -1.22 37.96% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14
Buffalo Bills East 1487 6 6.84 -0.84 46.09% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
New York Titans East 1486 7 6.81 +0.19 67.57% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1453 3 6.47 -3.47 6.08% 0 3 5 6 8 9 13
Oakland Raiders West 1447 2 6.37 -4.37 1.76% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Boston Patriots —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
New York Titans
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
New York Titans
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Dallas Texans —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Denver Broncos
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Dallas Texans
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Diego Chargers 12 7.72 +4.28
2 Houston Oilers 10.5 7.62 +2.88
3 Boston Patriots 9.5 6.95 +2.55
4 New York Titans 7 6.81 +0.19
5 Buffalo Bills 6 6.84 -0.84

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Oakland Raiders 2 6.37 -4.37
2 Denver Broncos 3 6.47 -3.47
3 Dallas Texans 6 7.22 -1.22
4 Buffalo Bills 6 6.84 -0.84
5 New York Titans 7 6.81 +0.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 San Diego Chargers 11 Sep 10 – Nov 19 1 in 1,024
2 Houston Oilers 9 Oct 22 – Dec 17 1 in 229
3 Boston Patriots 4 Nov 17 – Dec 17 1 in 18
4 Dallas Texans 3 Sep 24 – Oct 8 1 in 8
5 Buffalo Bills 2 Oct 8 – Oct 15 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Denver Broncos 7 Oct 29 – Dec 10 1 in 68
2 Dallas Texans 6 Oct 15 – Nov 19 1 in 65
3 Oakland Raiders 6 Nov 11 – Dec 17 1 in 37
4 Buffalo Bills 3 Oct 22 – Nov 5 1 in 9
5 Houston Oilers 3 Sep 24 – Oct 8 1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Houston Oilers35.80%27.06%21.30%15.84%
Boston Patriots22.72%24.98%25.63%26.67%
Buffalo Bills21.00%24.01%26.70%28.29%
New York Titans20.48%23.95%26.37%29.20%
Team1234
San Diego Chargers40.14%26.15%20.09%13.62%
Dallas Texans27.95%28.55%24.52%18.98%
Denver Broncos16.65%23.23%27.56%32.56%
Oakland Raiders15.26%22.07%27.83%34.84%
Team12345678
San Diego Chargers21.26%16.48%14.37%12.80%10.89%9.65%8.00%6.55%
Houston Oilers19.59%15.79%14.40%13.05%11.94%9.86%8.97%6.40%
Dallas Texans13.85%14.39%13.42%12.87%12.92%11.83%11.11%9.61%
Boston Patriots10.93%12.47%12.60%12.88%13.07%12.99%12.48%12.58%
Buffalo Bills10.19%11.48%12.40%12.42%13.28%13.56%13.37%13.30%
New York Titans9.76%11.43%12.35%12.82%12.99%13.32%13.58%13.75%
Denver Broncos7.88%9.41%10.31%11.31%12.37%14.43%15.99%18.30%
Oakland Raiders6.54%8.55%10.15%11.85%12.54%14.36%16.50%19.51%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Houston Oilers35.80%64.20%
Boston Patriots22.72%77.28%
Buffalo Bills21.00%79.00%
New York Titans20.48%79.52%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers40.14%59.86%
Dallas Texans27.95%72.05%
Denver Broncos16.65%83.35%
Oakland Raiders15.26%84.74%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 40.14% 21.45%
Houston Oilers 35.80% 20.47%
Dallas Texans 27.95% 13.31%
Boston Patriots 22.72% 11.94%
Buffalo Bills 21.00% 10.28%
New York Titans 20.48% 9.76%
Denver Broncos 16.65% 6.70%
Oakland Raiders 15.26% 6.09%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDallas TexansDenver BroncosHouston OilersNew York TitansOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots3.42%2.26%2.16%4.10%
Buffalo Bills2.89%1.72%1.79%3.88%
Dallas Texans2.84%2.91%4.51%3.05%
Denver Broncos1.49%1.32%2.22%1.67%
Houston Oilers5.72%3.99%3.52%7.24%
New York Titans2.61%1.98%1.70%3.47%
Oakland Raiders1.57%1.33%1.96%1.23%
San Diego Chargers4.88%5.16%6.64%4.77%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers 51.86% Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 48.14% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston OilersSan Diego Chargers
Houston Oilers51.86%
San Diego Chargers48.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Houston Oilers 51.86% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. San Diego Chargers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
51.86%
San Diego Chargers 48.14% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Houston Oilers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
48.14%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1961-09-09 New York Titans L 20-21 1492.19 1497.86 52.52% 45.23% -1.31 0-1
1961-09-16 Denver Broncos W 45-17 1490.88 1495.34 52.70% 45.06% +5.98 1-1
1961-09-23 @ Buffalo Bills W 23-21 1496.86 1495.66 44.59% 53.16% +1.88 2-1
1961-10-01 @ New York Titans L 30-37 1498.74 1498.46 44.46% 53.29% -2.95 2-2
1961-10-07 San Diego Chargers L 27-38 1495.79 1524.68 49.19% 48.56% -4.09 2-3
1961-10-13 Houston Oilers T 31-31 1491.70 1511.28 50.53% 47.22% -0.02 2-3
1961-10-22 Buffalo Bills W 52-21 1491.68 1496.84 52.60% 45.16% +6.31 3-3
1961-10-29 @ Dallas Texans W 18-17 1497.99 1506.81 43.17% 54.58% +1.37 4-3
1961-11-03 Dallas Texans W 28-21 1499.36 1505.45 52.46% 45.29% +3.00 5-3
1961-11-12 @ Houston Oilers L 15-27 1502.36 1529.44 40.61% 57.14% -3.53 5-4
1961-11-17 Oakland Raiders W 20-17 1498.83 1467.03 57.79% 39.96% +1.74 6-4
1961-12-03 @ Denver Broncos W 28-24 1500.57 1461.08 50.08% 47.67% +2.39 7-4
1961-12-09 @ Oakland Raiders W 35-21 1502.96 1456.80 51.04% 46.71% +4.38 8-4
1961-12-17 @ San Diego Chargers W 41-0 1507.34 1554.56 37.85% 59.91% +9.59 9-4
1961-09-10 Denver Broncos L 10-22 1496.75 1490.64 54.20% 43.55% -4.69 0-1
1961-09-17 New York Titans W 41-31 1492.06 1499.17 52.32% 45.43% +3.60 1-1
1961-09-23 Boston Patriots L 21-23 1495.66 1496.86 53.16% 44.59% -1.88 1-2
1961-09-30 San Diego Chargers L 11-19 1493.78 1521.18 49.41% 48.34% -3.50 1-3
1961-10-08 @ Houston Oilers W 22-12 1490.28 1515.78 40.83% 56.92% +4.50 2-3
1961-10-15 Dallas Texans W 27-24 1494.78 1515.11 50.42% 47.33% +2.06 3-3
1961-10-22 @ Boston Patriots L 21-52 1496.84 1491.68 45.16% 52.60% -6.31 3-4
1961-10-29 Houston Oilers L 16-28 1490.53 1517.54 49.46% 48.29% -4.30 3-5
1961-11-05 Oakland Raiders L 22-31 1486.23 1466.30 56.14% 41.61% -4.21 3-6
1961-11-12 @ Dallas Texans W 30-20 1482.02 1502.44 41.54% 56.21% +4.44 4-6
1961-11-19 @ Denver Broncos W 23-10 1486.46 1470.53 46.70% 51.05% +4.61 5-6
1961-11-23 @ New York Titans L 14-21 1491.07 1487.37 44.95% 52.80% -2.98 5-7
1961-12-03 @ Oakland Raiders W 26-21 1488.09 1459.56 48.51% 49.25% +2.76 6-7
1961-12-10 @ San Diego Chargers L 10-28 1490.85 1550.69 36.15% 61.60% -3.87 6-8
1961-09-10 San Diego Chargers L 10-26 1511.46 1505.40 54.19% 43.56% -5.43 0-1
1961-09-24 @ Oakland Raiders W 42-35 1506.03 1477.00 48.58% 49.17% +3.26 1-1
1961-10-01 Houston Oilers W 26-21 1509.29 1518.34 52.04% 45.71% +2.57 2-1
1961-10-08 @ Denver Broncos W 19-12 1511.86 1482.11 48.68% 49.07% +3.25 3-1
1961-10-15 @ Buffalo Bills L 24-27 1515.11 1494.78 47.33% 50.42% -2.05 3-2
1961-10-22 @ Houston Oilers L 7-38 1513.06 1511.30 44.67% 53.08% -6.25 3-3
1961-10-29 Boston Patriots L 17-18 1506.81 1497.99 54.58% 43.17% -1.36 3-4
1961-11-03 @ Boston Patriots L 21-28 1505.45 1499.36 45.29% 52.46% -3.01 3-5
1961-11-12 Buffalo Bills L 20-30 1502.44 1482.02 56.21% 41.54% -4.45 3-6
1961-11-19 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-24 1497.99 1552.94 36.81% 60.95% -2.93 3-7
1961-11-26 Oakland Raiders W 43-11 1495.06 1465.29 57.51% 40.24% +5.73 4-7
1961-12-03 @ New York Titans L 7-28 1500.79 1490.36 45.91% 51.84% -5.28 4-8
1961-12-10 Denver Broncos W 49-21 1495.51 1458.69 58.49% 39.27% +5.23 5-8
1961-12-17 New York Titans W 35-24 1500.74 1489.68 54.90% 42.85% +3.57 6-8
1961-09-10 @ Buffalo Bills W 22-10 1490.64 1496.75 43.55% 54.20% +4.70 1-0
1961-09-16 @ Boston Patriots L 17-45 1495.34 1490.88 45.06% 52.70% -5.99 1-1
1961-09-24 @ New York Titans L 28-35 1489.35 1495.57 43.54% 54.21% -2.89 1-2
1961-10-01 @ Oakland Raiders L 19-33 1486.46 1473.74 46.23% 51.52% -4.35 1-3
1961-10-08 Dallas Texans L 12-19 1482.11 1511.86 49.07% 48.68% -3.25 1-4
1961-10-15 Oakland Raiders W 27-24 1478.86 1478.09 53.44% 44.31% +1.93 2-4
1961-10-22 New York Titans W 27-10 1480.79 1496.62 51.07% 46.68% +4.83 3-4
1961-10-29 @ San Diego Chargers L 0-37 1485.62 1539.87 36.90% 60.85% -5.66 3-5
1961-11-05 Houston Oilers L 14-55 1479.96 1521.84 47.33% 50.42% -7.60 3-6
1961-11-12 San Diego Chargers L 16-19 1472.36 1551.11 42.08% 55.67% -1.83 3-7
1961-11-19 Buffalo Bills L 10-23 1470.53 1486.46 51.05% 46.70% -4.61 3-8
1961-11-26 @ Houston Oilers L 14-45 1465.92 1538.85 34.43% 63.32% -4.84 3-9
1961-12-03 Boston Patriots L 24-28 1461.08 1500.57 47.67% 50.08% -2.39 3-10
1961-12-10 @ Dallas Texans L 21-49 1458.69 1495.51 39.27% 58.49% -5.23 3-11
1961-09-09 Oakland Raiders W 55-0 1514.23 1491.47 56.54% 41.21% +7.69 1-0
1961-09-24 @ San Diego Chargers L 24-34 1521.92 1517.60 45.04% 52.72% -3.58 1-1
1961-10-01 @ Dallas Texans L 21-26 1518.34 1509.29 45.71% 52.04% -2.56 1-2
1961-10-08 Buffalo Bills L 12-22 1515.78 1490.28 56.92% 40.83% -4.50 1-3
1961-10-13 @ Boston Patriots T 31-31 1511.28 1491.70 47.22% 50.53% +0.02 1-3
1961-10-22 Dallas Texans W 38-7 1511.30 1513.06 53.08% 44.67% +6.24 2-3
1961-10-29 @ Buffalo Bills W 28-16 1517.54 1490.53 48.29% 49.46% +4.30 3-3
1961-11-05 @ Denver Broncos W 55-14 1521.84 1479.96 50.42% 47.33% +7.60 4-3
1961-11-12 Boston Patriots W 27-15 1529.44 1502.36 57.14% 40.61% +3.54 5-3
1961-11-19 New York Titans W 49-13 1532.98 1493.24 58.89% 38.87% +5.87 6-3
1961-11-26 Denver Broncos W 45-14 1538.85 1465.92 63.32% 34.43% +4.84 7-3
1961-12-03 San Diego Chargers W 33-13 1543.69 1555.87 51.59% 46.16% +5.18 8-3
1961-12-10 @ New York Titans W 48-21 1548.87 1495.64 52.05% 45.70% +5.96 9-3
1961-12-17 @ Oakland Raiders W 47-16 1554.83 1452.42 58.95% 38.80% +5.44 10-3
1961-09-09 @ Boston Patriots W 21-20 1497.86 1492.19 45.23% 52.52% +1.31 1-0
1961-09-17 @ Buffalo Bills L 31-41 1499.17 1492.06 45.43% 52.32% -3.60 1-1
1961-09-24 Denver Broncos W 35-28 1495.57 1489.35 54.21% 43.54% +2.89 2-1
1961-10-01 Boston Patriots W 37-30 1498.46 1498.74 53.29% 44.46% +2.95 3-1
1961-10-15 San Diego Chargers L 10-25 1501.41 1528.77 49.41% 48.34% -4.79 3-2
1961-10-22 @ Denver Broncos L 10-27 1496.62 1480.79 46.68% 51.07% -4.83 3-3
1961-10-29 @ Oakland Raiders W 14-6 1491.79 1469.85 47.56% 50.19% +3.56 4-3
1961-11-05 @ San Diego Chargers L 13-48 1495.35 1545.53 37.45% 60.31% -5.59 4-4
1961-11-11 Oakland Raiders W 23-12 1489.76 1470.51 56.05% 41.70% +3.48 5-4
1961-11-19 @ Houston Oilers L 13-49 1493.24 1532.98 38.87% 58.89% -5.87 5-5
1961-11-23 Buffalo Bills W 21-14 1487.37 1491.07 52.80% 44.95% +2.99 6-5
1961-12-03 Dallas Texans W 28-7 1490.36 1500.79 51.84% 45.91% +5.28 7-5
1961-12-10 Houston Oilers L 21-48 1495.64 1548.87 45.70% 52.05% -5.96 7-6
1961-12-17 @ Dallas Texans L 24-35 1489.68 1500.74 42.85% 54.90% -3.58 7-7
1961-09-09 @ Houston Oilers L 0-55 1491.47 1514.23 41.21% 56.54% -7.69 0-1
1961-09-17 @ San Diego Chargers L 0-44 1483.78 1510.82 40.62% 57.14% -6.78 0-2
1961-09-24 Dallas Texans L 35-42 1477.00 1506.03 49.17% 48.58% -3.26 0-3
1961-10-01 Denver Broncos W 33-19 1473.74 1486.46 51.52% 46.23% +4.35 1-3
1961-10-15 @ Denver Broncos L 24-27 1478.09 1478.86 44.31% 53.44% -1.93 1-4
1961-10-22 San Diego Chargers L 10-41 1476.16 1533.56 45.10% 52.65% -6.31 1-5
1961-10-29 New York Titans L 6-14 1469.85 1491.79 50.19% 47.56% -3.55 1-6
1961-11-05 @ Buffalo Bills W 31-22 1466.30 1486.23 41.61% 56.14% +4.21 2-6
1961-11-11 @ New York Titans L 12-23 1470.51 1489.76 41.70% 56.05% -3.48 2-7
1961-11-17 @ Boston Patriots L 17-20 1467.03 1498.83 39.96% 57.79% -1.74 2-8
1961-11-26 @ Dallas Texans L 11-43 1465.29 1495.06 40.24% 57.51% -5.73 2-9
1961-12-03 Buffalo Bills L 21-26 1459.56 1488.09 49.25% 48.51% -2.76 2-10
1961-12-09 Boston Patriots L 21-35 1456.80 1502.96 46.71% 51.04% -4.38 2-11
1961-12-17 Houston Oilers L 16-47 1452.42 1554.83 38.80% 58.95% -5.44 2-12
1961-09-10 @ Dallas Texans W 26-10 1505.40 1511.46 43.56% 54.19% +5.42 1-0
1961-09-17 Oakland Raiders W 44-0 1510.82 1483.78 57.14% 40.62% +6.78 2-0
1961-09-24 Houston Oilers W 34-24 1517.60 1521.92 52.72% 45.04% +3.58 3-0
1961-09-30 @ Buffalo Bills W 19-11 1521.18 1493.78 48.34% 49.41% +3.50 4-0
1961-10-07 @ Boston Patriots W 38-27 1524.68 1495.79 48.56% 49.19% +4.09 5-0
1961-10-15 @ New York Titans W 25-10 1528.77 1501.41 48.34% 49.41% +4.79 6-0
1961-10-22 @ Oakland Raiders W 41-10 1533.56 1476.16 52.65% 45.10% +6.31 7-0
1961-10-29 Denver Broncos W 37-0 1539.87 1485.62 60.85% 36.90% +5.66 8-0
1961-11-05 New York Titans W 48-13 1545.53 1495.35 60.31% 37.45% +5.58 9-0
1961-11-12 @ Denver Broncos W 19-16 1551.11 1472.36 55.67% 42.08% +1.83 10-0
1961-11-19 Dallas Texans W 24-14 1552.94 1497.99 60.95% 36.81% +2.93 11-0
1961-12-03 @ Houston Oilers L 13-33 1555.87 1543.69 46.16% 51.59% -5.18 11-1
1961-12-10 Buffalo Bills W 28-10 1550.69 1490.85 61.60% 36.15% +3.87 12-1
1961-12-17 Boston Patriots L 0-41 1554.56 1507.34 59.91% 37.85% -9.58 12-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1961-12-24 @ San Diego Chargers W 10-3 1560.27 1544.98 47.73% 52.27% +3.39 1-0
1961-12-24 Houston Oilers L 3-10 1544.98 1560.27 52.27% 47.73% -3.39 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1961-12-17 37.85% Boston Patriots 1507.34 41 @ San Diego Chargers 1554.56 0
2 1961-10-08 40.83% Buffalo Bills 1490.28 22 @ Houston Oilers 1515.78 12
3 1961-11-12 41.54% Buffalo Bills 1482.02 30 @ Dallas Texans 1502.44 20
4 1961-11-05 41.61% Oakland Raiders 1466.30 31 @ Buffalo Bills 1486.23 22
5 1961-10-29 43.17% Boston Patriots 1497.99 18 @ Dallas Texans 1506.81 17
6 1961-09-10 43.55% Denver Broncos 1490.64 22 @ Buffalo Bills 1496.75 10
7 1961-09-10 43.56% San Diego Chargers 1505.40 26 @ Dallas Texans 1511.46 10
8 1961-09-23 44.59% Boston Patriots 1496.86 23 @ Buffalo Bills 1495.66 21
9 1961-09-09 45.23% New York Titans 1497.86 21 @ Boston Patriots 1492.19 20
10 1961-11-19 46.70% Buffalo Bills 1486.46 23 @ Denver Broncos 1470.53 10
11 1961-10-29 47.56% New York Titans 1491.79 14 @ Oakland Raiders 1469.85 6
12 1961-12-24 * 47.73% Houston Oilers 1560.27 10 @ San Diego Chargers 1544.98 3
13 1961-10-29 48.29% Houston Oilers 1517.54 28 @ Buffalo Bills 1490.53 16
14 1961-09-30 48.34% San Diego Chargers 1521.18 19 @ Buffalo Bills 1493.78 11
15 1961-10-15 48.34% San Diego Chargers 1528.77 25 @ New York Titans 1501.41 10
16 1961-12-03 48.51% Buffalo Bills 1488.09 26 @ Oakland Raiders 1459.56 21
17 1961-10-07 48.56% San Diego Chargers 1524.68 38 @ Boston Patriots 1495.79 27
18 1961-09-24 48.58% Dallas Texans 1506.03 42 @ Oakland Raiders 1477.00 35
19 1961-10-08 48.68% Dallas Texans 1511.86 19 @ Denver Broncos 1482.11 12

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-12-17 9.59 Boston Patriots 41 1507.34 37.85% @ San Diego Chargers 0 1554.56 59.91%
2 1961-09-09 7.69 @ Houston Oilers 55 1514.23 56.54% Oakland Raiders 0 1491.47 41.21%
3 1961-11-05 7.60 Houston Oilers 55 1521.84 50.42% @ Denver Broncos 14 1479.96 47.33%
4 1961-09-17 6.78 @ San Diego Chargers 44 1510.82 57.14% Oakland Raiders 0 1483.78 40.62%
5 1961-10-22 6.31 San Diego Chargers 41 1533.56 52.65% @ Oakland Raiders 10 1476.16 45.10%
6 1961-10-22 6.31 @ Boston Patriots 52 1491.68 52.60% Buffalo Bills 21 1496.84 45.16%
7 1961-10-22 6.25 @ Houston Oilers 38 1511.30 53.08% Dallas Texans 7 1513.06 44.67%
8 1961-09-16 5.99 @ Boston Patriots 45 1490.88 52.70% Denver Broncos 17 1495.34 45.06%
9 1961-12-10 5.96 Houston Oilers 48 1548.87 52.05% @ New York Titans 21 1495.64 45.70%
10 1961-11-19 5.87 @ Houston Oilers 49 1532.98 58.89% New York Titans 13 1493.24 38.87%
11 1961-11-26 5.73 @ Dallas Texans 43 1495.06 57.51% Oakland Raiders 11 1465.29 40.24%
12 1961-10-29 5.66 @ San Diego Chargers 37 1539.87 60.85% Denver Broncos 0 1485.62 36.90%
13 1961-11-05 5.59 @ San Diego Chargers 48 1545.53 60.31% New York Titans 13 1495.35 37.45%
14 1961-12-17 5.44 Houston Oilers 47 1554.83 58.95% @ Oakland Raiders 16 1452.42 38.80%
15 1961-09-10 5.43 San Diego Chargers 26 1505.40 43.56% @ Dallas Texans 10 1511.46 54.19%
16 1961-12-03 5.28 @ New York Titans 28 1490.36 51.84% Dallas Texans 7 1500.79 45.91%
17 1961-12-10 5.23 @ Dallas Texans 49 1495.51 58.49% Denver Broncos 21 1458.69 39.27%
18 1961-12-03 5.18 @ Houston Oilers 33 1543.69 51.59% San Diego Chargers 13 1555.87 46.16%
19 1961-11-26 4.84 @ Houston Oilers 45 1538.85 63.32% Denver Broncos 14 1465.92 34.43%
20 1961-10-22 4.83 @ Denver Broncos 27 1480.79 51.07% New York Titans 10 1496.62 46.68%
21 1961-10-15 4.79 San Diego Chargers 25 1528.77 48.34% @ New York Titans 10 1501.41 49.41%
22 1961-09-10 4.70 Denver Broncos 22 1490.64 43.55% @ Buffalo Bills 10 1496.75 54.20%
23 1961-11-19 4.61 Buffalo Bills 23 1486.46 46.70% @ Denver Broncos 10 1470.53 51.05%
24 1961-10-08 4.50 Buffalo Bills 22 1490.28 40.83% @ Houston Oilers 12 1515.78 56.92%
25 1961-11-12 4.45 Buffalo Bills 30 1482.02 41.54% @ Dallas Texans 20 1502.44 56.21%