1960 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.91 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.09 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

2.47 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.97 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	10	4	0	.714	-	379	285	+94	7.49	+2.51
2	New York Titans	7	7	0	.500	3	382	399	-17	7.04	-0.04
3	Buffalo Bills	5	8	1	.393	4.5	296	303	-7	6.73	-1.23
4	Boston Patriots	5	9	0	.357	5	286	349	-63	6.81	-1.81

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	10	4	0	.714	-	373	336	+37	7.09	+2.91
2	Dallas Texans	8	6	0	.571	2	362	253	+109	7.23	+0.77
3	Oakland Raiders	6	8	0	.429	4	319	388	-69	6.65	-0.65
4	Denver Broncos	4	9	1	.321	5.5	309	393	-84	6.97	-2.47

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 24

San Diego Chargers 16

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Houston Oilers	East	1546	10	7.49	+2.51	95.88%	4	6	7	9	10	14
Dallas Texans	West	1535	8	7.23	+0.77	77.76%	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1526	10	7.09	+2.91	97.39%	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Titans	East	1493	7	7.04	-0.04	62.98%	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	East	1489	5.5	6.73	-1.23	48.73%	4	5	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	West	1473	6	6.65	-0.65	50.30%	3	5	6	8	10	14
Boston Patriots	East	1473	5	6.81	-1.81	27.03%	4	5	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	West	1466	4.5	6.97	-2.47	23.87%	4	6	7	8	10	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Boston Patriots	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New York Titans	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Titans	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Texans	Broncos	Raiders	Chargers
Dallas Texans	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Titans
Dallas Texans	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	1.79%	0.89%	—	6.25%
7–13	0.89%	1.79%	4.46%	3.57%	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	13.39%
14–20	0.89%	4.46%	3.57%	2.68%	1.79%	1.79%	1.79%	16.96%
21–27	1.79%	3.57%	2.68%	7.14%	5.36%	2.68%	0.89%	24.11%
28–34	1.79%	0.89%	1.79%	5.36%	3.57%	1.79%	2.68%	17.86%
35–41	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	2.68%	1.79%	5.36%	—	13.39%
42+	—	0.89%	1.79%	0.89%	2.68%	—	1.79%	8.04%
Total	6.25%	13.39%	16.96%	24.11%	17.86%	13.39%	8.04%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.16	24.16	+0.00
SD	12.07	12.07	16.70
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	52	52	+38
Min	0	0	-38

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.43	24.93	-4.50
SD	13.57	12.07	20.55
CV	0.66	0.48	—
Max	42	45	+35
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.14	21.64	-0.50
SD	12.47	12.51	17.67
CV	0.59	0.58	—
Max	38	45	+29
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.86	18.07	+7.79
SD	10.26	14.72	16.96
CV	0.40	0.81	—
Max	45	42	+34
Min	10	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.07	28.07	-6.00
SD	9.88	11.74	14.32
CV	0.45	0.42	—
Max	38	48	+17
Min	7	10	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.07	20.36	+6.71
SD	12.29	6.56	11.19
CV	0.45	0.32	—
Max	45	28	+20
Min	0	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

New York Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.29	28.50	-1.21
SD	9.44	11.74	10.48
CV	0.35	0.41	—
Max	43	50	+24
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.79	27.71	-4.93
SD	9.62	13.25	18.23
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	48	52	+38
Min	9	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.64	24.00	+2.64
SD	17.56	10.87	19.38
CV	0.66	0.45	—
Max	52	43	+29
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.73	+0.5
Allowed	0.23	-0.2
Differential	0.66	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	10	7.09	+2.91
2	Houston Oilers	10	7.49	+2.51
3	Dallas Texans	8	7.23	+0.77
4	New York Titans	7	7.04	-0.04
5	Oakland Raiders	6	6.65	-0.65

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	4.5	6.97	-2.47
2	Boston Patriots	5	6.81	-1.81
3	Buffalo Bills	5.5	6.73	-1.23
4	Oakland Raiders	6	6.65	-0.65
5	New York Titans	7	7.04	-0.04

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	4	Oct 16 – Nov 13	1 in 26
2	New York Titans	3	Nov 24 – Dec 11	1 in 9
3	Dallas Texans	3	Oct 30 – Nov 13	1 in 9
4	Houston Oilers	3	Oct 9 – Oct 23	1 in 7
5	Boston Patriots	3	Nov 4 – Nov 18	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Titans	4	Oct 23 – Nov 11	1 in 23
2	Denver Broncos	4	Oct 30 – Nov 20	1 in 15
3	Boston Patriots	4	Nov 25 – Dec 18	1 in 11
4	Dallas Texans	3	Oct 2 – Oct 16	1 in 11
5	Oakland Raiders	3	Nov 27 – Dec 11	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	33.81%	26.61%	22.28%	17.30%
New York Titans	25.14%	25.49%	25.10%	24.27%
Boston Patriots	21.10%	24.19%	26.37%	28.34%
Buffalo Bills	19.94%	23.71%	26.25%	30.09%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Texans	29.05%	26.26%	23.82%	20.87%
San Diego Chargers	26.83%	25.51%	24.59%	23.07%
Denver Broncos	24.40%	25.39%	25.36%	24.85%
Oakland Raiders	19.72%	22.84%	26.23%	31.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Houston Oilers	18.05%	15.37%	13.91%	12.89%	11.60%	10.64%	9.59%	7.95%
Dallas Texans	14.82%	13.84%	13.24%	12.71%	12.41%	11.71%	11.13%	10.14%
San Diego Chargers	13.24%	13.01%	13.05%	12.57%	12.50%	12.30%	11.95%	11.38%
New York Titans	12.76%	12.79%	12.72%	12.76%	12.40%	12.29%	12.21%	12.06%
Denver Broncos	11.77%	12.43%	12.43%	12.71%	12.73%	12.87%	12.58%	12.47%
Boston Patriots	10.45%	11.33%	11.86%	12.15%	12.89%	13.19%	13.75%	14.38%
Buffalo Bills	9.70%	10.99%	11.46%	12.18%	12.77%	13.40%	14.26%	15.25%
Oakland Raiders	9.20%	10.24%	11.33%	12.02%	12.70%	13.59%	14.55%	16.37%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Houston Oilers	33.81%	66.19%
New York Titans	25.14%	74.86%
Boston Patriots	21.10%	78.90%
Buffalo Bills	19.94%	80.06%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Texans	29.05%	70.95%
San Diego Chargers	26.83%	73.17%
Denver Broncos	24.40%	75.59%
Oakland Raiders	19.72%	80.28%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+8.93%

Clear Edge

53.57%1.79%44.64%

Elo Value

Home Edge

12 Elo

0.081 points per Elo point

031.1040

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.82 points

Lean Home

-8+2.53+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.5

Open Race

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

19%

Houston Oilers, 1st of 8

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

52.8%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.49 · As Expected: 1.49 to 2.04 · Elevated: 2.04 to 2.79 · High Variance: 2.79 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.05 · Close: 2.05 to 2.77 · Off Target: 2.77 to 3.61 · Well Off Target: 3.61 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.03 · As Expected: 1.03 to 1.71 · More Than Expected: 1.71 to 2.74 · Far More Than Expected: 2.74 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.71 wins

As Expected

01.865

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.38

Pinpoint

02.415

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

97.39%

San Diego Chargers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

23.87%

Denver Broncos

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 8

Many Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.15

Balanced

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.15

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

58%

Even

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

61%

Tight

50%63%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.24

Hard to Predict

00.251

Matchup Imbalance

0.10

Evenly Matched

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.87

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected 44%

45%

Upset-Prone

0%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

Favorites Held

0%37%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.32 · Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.71

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.05

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.032

Well Within Noise

00.1590.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers	33.81%	18.90%
Dallas Texans	29.05%	15.73%
San Diego Chargers	26.83%	14.35%
New York Titans	25.14%	12.14%
Denver Broncos	24.40%	10.93%
Boston Patriots	21.10%	9.62%
Buffalo Bills	19.94%	9.42%
Oakland Raiders	19.72%	8.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Texans	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	New York Titans
Boston Patriots	41.3%6.10%	51.2%5.17%	51.0%4.17%	41.2%5.66%
Buffalo Bills	43.5%5.85%	52.2%4.89%	51.0%3.91%	44.0%5.29%
Houston Oilers	51.2%9.84%	61.0%8.17%	60.8%6.73%	52.7%9.07%
New York Titans	44.4%7.26%	53.4%6.17%	52.9%4.91%	44.5%6.81%
Dallas Texans					58.7%6.10%	56.5%5.85%	48.8%9.84%	55.6%7.26%
Denver Broncos					48.8%5.17%	47.8%4.89%	39.0%8.17%	46.6%6.17%
Oakland Raiders					49.0%4.17%	49.0%3.91%	39.2%6.73%	47.1%4.91%
San Diego Chargers					58.8%5.66%	56.0%5.29%	47.3%9.07%	55.5%6.81%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers	52.82%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	47.18%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	San Diego Chargers	Houston Oilers
Houston Oilers	52.8%100.00%
San Diego Chargers		47.2%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Houston Oilers 52.82% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.82%

San Diego Chargers 47.18% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.18%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1960-09-09	Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1500.00	1500.00	53.34%	44.43%	-3.70	0-1
1960-09-17	@ New York Titans	W 28-24	1496.30	1508.74	42.67%	55.11%	+4.41	1-1
1960-09-23	Buffalo Bills	L 0-13	1500.71	1486.20	55.40%	42.38%	-7.99	1-2
1960-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 35-0	1492.72	1497.24	43.79%	53.98%	+12.78	2-2
1960-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1505.50	1480.55	47.99%	49.76%	-6.94	2-3
1960-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1498.56	1507.46	43.17%	54.61%	-4.59	2-4
1960-10-28	San Diego Chargers	L 16-45	1493.97	1489.03	54.04%	43.73%	-11.65	2-5
1960-11-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-28	1482.32	1479.99	53.67%	44.10%	+4.34	3-5
1960-11-11	New York Titans	W 38-21	1486.66	1492.67	52.48%	45.28%	+7.50	4-5
1960-11-18	Dallas Texans	W 42-14	1494.16	1524.40	49.00%	48.75%	+10.35	5-5
1960-11-25	Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1504.51	1537.77	48.56%	49.19%	-7.29	5-6
1960-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1497.22	1491.26	45.27%	52.49%	-8.91	5-7
1960-12-11	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-34	1488.31	1519.02	40.14%	57.67%	-9.42	5-8
1960-12-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-37	1478.89	1539.82	36.07%	61.81%	-5.81	5-9
1960-09-11	@ New York Titans	L 3-27	1500.00	1500.00	44.43%	53.34%	-8.74	0-1
1960-09-18	Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1491.26	1503.70	51.56%	46.20%	-5.06	0-2
1960-09-23	@ Boston Patriots	W 13-0	1486.20	1500.71	42.38%	55.40%	+7.99	1-2
1960-10-02	San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1494.19	1489.14	54.06%	43.72%	-8.10	1-3
1960-10-16	New York Titans	L 13-17	1486.09	1506.66	50.39%	47.36%	-4.04	1-4
1960-10-23	Oakland Raiders	W 38-9	1482.05	1487.49	52.56%	45.20%	+9.78	2-4
1960-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 25-24	1491.83	1529.14	47.98%	49.77%	+2.00	3-4
1960-11-06	Dallas Texans	L 28-45	1493.83	1507.10	51.44%	46.32%	-8.50	3-5
1960-11-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-20	1485.33	1475.65	45.80%	51.95%	-6.63	3-6
1960-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 32-3	1478.70	1512.03	39.78%	58.04%	+12.49	4-6
1960-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	T 38-38	1491.19	1485.49	45.24%	52.52%	+0.07	4-6
1960-12-04	Boston Patriots	W 38-14	1491.26	1497.22	52.49%	45.27%	+8.91	5-6
1960-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-31	1500.17	1535.32	39.53%	58.29%	-4.50	5-7
1960-12-18	@ Dallas Texans	L 7-24	1495.67	1528.43	39.86%	57.96%	-6.61	5-8
1960-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-21	1500.00	1500.00	44.43%	53.34%	-1.79	0-1
1960-09-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-16	1498.21	1491.73	45.35%	52.41%	+8.91	1-1
1960-09-25	San Diego Chargers	W 17-0	1507.12	1496.25	54.88%	42.90%	+7.11	2-1
1960-10-02	New York Titans	L 35-37	1514.23	1507.96	54.23%	43.54%	-3.07	2-2
1960-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 19-20	1511.16	1478.23	57.98%	39.83%	-2.32	2-3
1960-10-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1508.84	1515.86	43.44%	54.34%	-5.52	2-4
1960-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1503.32	1512.05	43.20%	54.58%	+3.78	3-4
1960-11-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 45-28	1507.10	1493.83	46.32%	51.44%	+8.50	4-4
1960-11-13	Denver Broncos	W 34-7	1515.60	1499.20	55.67%	42.12%	+8.80	5-4
1960-11-18	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-42	1524.40	1494.16	48.75%	49.00%	-10.35	5-5
1960-11-24	@ New York Titans	L 35-41	1514.05	1485.17	48.56%	49.19%	-4.77	5-6
1960-12-04	Houston Oilers	W 24-0	1509.28	1545.05	48.20%	49.55%	+9.74	6-6
1960-12-11	Boston Patriots	W 34-0	1519.02	1488.31	57.67%	40.14%	+9.41	7-6
1960-12-18	Buffalo Bills	W 24-7	1528.43	1495.67	57.96%	39.86%	+6.61	8-6
1960-09-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 13-10	1500.00	1500.00	44.43%	53.34%	+3.70	1-0
1960-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-21	1503.70	1491.26	46.20%	51.56%	+5.06	2-0
1960-09-23	@ New York Titans	L 24-28	1508.76	1504.34	45.06%	52.71%	-3.62	2-1
1960-10-02	Oakland Raiders	W 31-14	1505.14	1485.13	56.17%	41.62%	+6.90	3-1
1960-10-16	San Diego Chargers	L 19-23	1512.04	1484.46	57.24%	40.57%	-4.58	3-2
1960-10-23	Boston Patriots	W 31-24	1507.46	1498.56	54.61%	43.17%	+4.59	4-2
1960-10-30	Dallas Texans	L 14-17	1512.05	1503.32	54.58%	43.20%	-3.78	4-3
1960-11-06	Houston Oilers	L 25-45	1508.27	1527.15	50.63%	47.12%	-9.07	4-4
1960-11-13	@ Dallas Texans	L 7-34	1499.20	1515.60	42.12%	55.67%	-8.80	4-5
1960-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1490.40	1532.86	38.53%	59.30%	-4.91	4-6
1960-11-27	Buffalo Bills	T 38-38	1485.49	1491.19	52.52%	45.24%	-0.07	4-6
1960-12-04	New York Titans	L 27-30	1485.42	1489.94	52.69%	45.07%	-3.65	4-7
1960-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 33-41	1481.77	1517.34	39.47%	58.35%	-4.50	4-8
1960-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-48	1477.27	1461.07	46.74%	51.02%	-11.56	4-9
1960-09-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 37-22	1500.00	1500.00	44.43%	53.34%	+8.27	1-0
1960-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 38-28	1508.27	1501.79	54.26%	43.51%	+5.53	2-0
1960-09-25	Oakland Raiders	L 13-14	1513.80	1482.83	57.71%	40.10%	-2.31	2-1
1960-10-09	New York Titans	W 27-21	1511.49	1511.02	53.40%	44.36%	+4.37	3-1
1960-10-16	Dallas Texans	W 20-10	1515.86	1508.84	54.34%	43.44%	+5.52	4-1
1960-10-23	@ New York Titans	W 42-28	1521.38	1510.70	45.95%	51.81%	+7.76	5-1
1960-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-25	1529.14	1491.83	49.77%	47.98%	-1.99	5-2
1960-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	W 45-25	1527.15	1508.27	47.12%	50.63%	+9.07	6-2
1960-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1536.22	1508.67	48.37%	49.39%	-3.36	6-3
1960-11-20	Denver Broncos	W 20-10	1532.86	1490.40	59.30%	38.53%	+4.91	7-3
1960-11-25	@ Boston Patriots	W 24-10	1537.77	1504.51	49.19%	48.56%	+7.28	8-3
1960-12-04	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-24	1545.05	1509.28	49.55%	48.20%	-9.73	8-4
1960-12-11	Buffalo Bills	W 31-23	1535.32	1500.17	58.29%	39.53%	+4.50	9-4
1960-12-18	Boston Patriots	W 37-21	1539.82	1478.89	61.81%	36.07%	+5.81	10-4
1960-09-11	Buffalo Bills	W 27-3	1500.00	1500.00	53.34%	44.43%	+8.74	1-0
1960-09-17	Boston Patriots	L 24-28	1508.74	1496.30	55.11%	42.67%	-4.40	1-1
1960-09-23	Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1504.34	1508.76	52.71%	45.06%	+3.62	2-1
1960-10-02	@ Dallas Texans	W 37-35	1507.96	1514.23	43.54%	54.23%	+3.06	3-1
1960-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-27	1511.02	1511.49	44.36%	53.40%	-4.36	3-2
1960-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-13	1506.66	1486.09	47.36%	50.39%	+4.04	4-2
1960-10-23	Houston Oilers	L 28-42	1510.70	1521.38	51.81%	45.95%	-7.77	4-3
1960-10-28	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1502.93	1477.72	56.91%	40.89%	-2.27	4-4
1960-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 7-21	1500.66	1500.68	53.33%	44.43%	-7.99	4-5
1960-11-11	@ Boston Patriots	L 21-38	1492.67	1486.66	45.28%	52.48%	-7.50	4-6
1960-11-24	Dallas Texans	W 41-35	1485.17	1514.05	49.19%	48.56%	+4.77	5-6
1960-12-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1489.94	1485.42	45.07%	52.69%	+3.66	6-6
1960-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-28	1493.60	1464.48	48.59%	49.16%	+3.41	7-6
1960-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 43-50	1497.01	1521.83	40.95%	56.85%	-4.36	7-7
1960-09-11	Houston Oilers	L 22-37	1500.00	1500.00	53.34%	44.43%	-8.27	0-1
1960-09-16	Dallas Texans	L 16-34	1491.73	1498.21	52.41%	45.35%	-8.90	0-2
1960-09-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 14-13	1482.83	1513.80	40.10%	57.71%	+2.30	1-2
1960-10-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1485.13	1505.14	41.62%	56.17%	-6.90	1-3
1960-10-09	@ Dallas Texans	W 20-19	1478.23	1511.16	39.83%	57.98%	+2.32	2-3
1960-10-16	Boston Patriots	W 27-14	1480.55	1505.50	49.76%	47.99%	+6.94	3-3
1960-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-38	1487.49	1482.05	45.20%	52.56%	-9.77	3-4
1960-10-28	@ New York Titans	W 28-27	1477.72	1502.93	40.89%	56.91%	+2.27	4-4
1960-11-04	@ Boston Patriots	L 28-34	1479.99	1482.32	44.10%	53.67%	-4.34	4-5
1960-11-13	Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1475.65	1485.33	51.95%	45.80%	+6.63	5-5
1960-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-52	1482.28	1499.54	42.00%	55.79%	-8.27	5-6
1960-12-04	San Diego Chargers	L 17-41	1474.01	1507.81	48.49%	49.26%	-9.53	5-7
1960-12-11	New York Titans	L 28-31	1464.48	1493.60	49.16%	48.59%	-3.41	5-8
1960-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 48-10	1461.07	1477.27	51.02%	46.74%	+11.56	6-8
1960-09-10	Dallas Texans	W 21-20	1500.00	1500.00	53.34%	44.43%	+1.79	1-0
1960-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-38	1501.79	1508.27	43.51%	54.26%	-5.54	1-1
1960-09-25	@ Dallas Texans	L 0-17	1496.25	1507.12	42.90%	54.88%	-7.11	1-2
1960-10-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-10	1489.14	1494.19	43.72%	54.06%	+8.10	2-2
1960-10-08	Boston Patriots	L 0-35	1497.24	1492.72	53.98%	43.79%	-12.78	2-3
1960-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-19	1484.46	1512.04	40.57%	57.24%	+4.57	3-3
1960-10-28	@ Boston Patriots	W 45-16	1489.03	1493.97	43.73%	54.04%	+11.65	4-3
1960-11-04	@ New York Titans	W 21-7	1500.68	1500.66	44.43%	53.33%	+7.99	5-3
1960-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1508.67	1536.22	49.39%	48.37%	+3.36	6-3
1960-11-20	Buffalo Bills	L 3-32	1512.03	1478.70	58.04%	39.78%	-12.49	6-4
1960-11-27	Oakland Raiders	W 52-28	1499.54	1482.28	55.79%	42.00%	+8.27	7-4
1960-12-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-17	1507.81	1474.01	49.26%	48.49%	+9.53	8-4
1960-12-10	Denver Broncos	W 41-33	1517.34	1481.77	58.35%	39.47%	+4.49	9-4
1960-12-18	New York Titans	W 50-43	1521.83	1497.01	56.85%	40.95%	+4.36	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-01-01	San Diego Chargers	W 24-16	1545.63	1526.19	57.22%	42.78%	+4.75	1-0
1961-01-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-24	1526.19	1545.63	42.78%	57.22%	-4.74	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1960-11-20	39.78%	Buffalo Bills	1478.70	32	@ San Diego Chargers	1512.03	3
2	1960-10-09	39.83%	Oakland Raiders	1478.23	20	@ Dallas Texans	1511.16	19
3	1960-09-25	40.10%	Oakland Raiders	1482.83	14	@ Houston Oilers	1513.80	13
4	1960-10-16	40.57%	San Diego Chargers	1484.46	23	@ Denver Broncos	1512.04	19
5	1960-10-28	40.89%	Oakland Raiders	1477.72	28	@ New York Titans	1502.93	27
6	1960-09-23	42.38%	Buffalo Bills	1486.20	13	@ Boston Patriots	1500.71	0
7	1960-09-17	42.67%	Boston Patriots	1496.30	28	@ New York Titans	1508.74	24
8	1960-10-30	43.20%	Dallas Texans	1503.32	17	@ Denver Broncos	1512.05	14
9	1960-10-02	43.54%	New York Titans	1507.96	37	@ Dallas Texans	1514.23	35
10	1960-10-02	43.72%	San Diego Chargers	1489.14	24	@ Buffalo Bills	1494.19	10
11	1960-10-28	43.73%	San Diego Chargers	1489.03	45	@ Boston Patriots	1493.97	16
12	1960-10-08	43.79%	Boston Patriots	1492.72	35	@ San Diego Chargers	1497.24	0
13	1960-09-09	44.43%	Denver Broncos	1500.00	13	@ Boston Patriots	1500.00	10
14	1960-09-11	44.43%	Houston Oilers	1500.00	37	@ Oakland Raiders	1500.00	22
15	1960-11-04	44.43%	San Diego Chargers	1500.68	21	@ New York Titans	1500.66	7
16	1960-12-04	45.07%	New York Titans	1489.94	30	@ Denver Broncos	1485.42	27
17	1960-09-16	45.35%	Dallas Texans	1498.21	34	@ Oakland Raiders	1491.73	16
18	1960-10-23	45.95%	Houston Oilers	1521.38	42	@ New York Titans	1510.70	28
19	1960-09-18	46.20%	Denver Broncos	1503.70	27	@ Buffalo Bills	1491.26	21
20	1960-11-06	46.32%	Dallas Texans	1507.10	45	@ Buffalo Bills	1493.83	28
21	1960-11-06	47.12%	Houston Oilers	1527.15	45	@ Denver Broncos	1508.27	25
22	1960-10-16	47.36%	New York Titans	1506.66	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1486.09	13
23	1960-10-30	47.98%	@ Buffalo Bills	1491.83	25	Houston Oilers	1529.14	24
24	1960-12-04	48.20%	@ Dallas Texans	1509.28	24	Houston Oilers	1545.05	0
25	1960-12-11	48.59%	New York Titans	1493.60	31	@ Oakland Raiders	1464.48	28

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1960-10-08	12.78	Boston Patriots	35	1492.72	43.79%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1497.24	53.98%
2	1960-11-20	12.49	Buffalo Bills	32	1478.70	39.78%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1512.03	58.04%
3	1960-10-28	11.65	San Diego Chargers	45	1489.03	43.73%	@ Boston Patriots	16	1493.97	54.04%
4	1960-12-17	11.56	@ Oakland Raiders	48	1461.07	51.02%	Denver Broncos	10	1477.27	46.74%
5	1960-11-18	10.35	@ Boston Patriots	42	1494.16	49.00%	Dallas Texans	14	1524.40	48.75%
6	1960-10-23	9.78	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1482.05	52.56%	Oakland Raiders	9	1487.49	45.20%
7	1960-12-04	9.74	@ Dallas Texans	24	1509.28	48.20%	Houston Oilers	0	1545.05	49.55%
8	1960-12-04	9.53	San Diego Chargers	41	1507.81	49.26%	@ Oakland Raiders	17	1474.01	48.49%
9	1960-12-11	9.42	@ Dallas Texans	34	1519.02	57.67%	Boston Patriots	0	1488.31	40.14%
10	1960-11-06	9.07	Houston Oilers	45	1527.15	47.12%	@ Denver Broncos	25	1508.27	50.63%
11	1960-12-04	8.91	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1491.26	52.49%	Boston Patriots	14	1497.22	45.27%
12	1960-09-16	8.91	Dallas Texans	34	1498.21	45.35%	@ Oakland Raiders	16	1491.73	52.41%
13	1960-11-13	8.80	@ Dallas Texans	34	1515.60	55.67%	Denver Broncos	7	1499.20	42.12%
14	1960-09-11	8.74	@ New York Titans	27	1500.00	53.34%	Buffalo Bills	3	1500.00	44.43%
15	1960-11-06	8.50	Dallas Texans	45	1507.10	46.32%	@ Buffalo Bills	28	1493.83	51.44%
16	1960-09-11	8.27	Houston Oilers	37	1500.00	44.43%	@ Oakland Raiders	22	1500.00	53.34%
17	1960-11-27	8.27	@ San Diego Chargers	52	1499.54	55.79%	Oakland Raiders	28	1482.28	42.00%
18	1960-10-02	8.10	San Diego Chargers	24	1489.14	43.72%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1494.19	54.06%
19	1960-09-23	7.99	Buffalo Bills	13	1486.20	42.38%	@ Boston Patriots	0	1500.71	55.40%
20	1960-11-04	7.99	San Diego Chargers	21	1500.68	44.43%	@ New York Titans	7	1500.66	53.33%
21	1960-10-23	7.77	Houston Oilers	42	1521.38	45.95%	@ New York Titans	28	1510.70	51.81%
22	1960-11-11	7.50	@ Boston Patriots	38	1486.66	52.48%	New York Titans	21	1492.67	45.28%
23	1960-11-25	7.29	Houston Oilers	24	1537.77	49.19%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1504.51	48.56%
24	1960-09-25	7.11	@ Dallas Texans	17	1507.12	54.88%	San Diego Chargers	0	1496.25	42.90%
25	1960-10-16	6.94	@ Oakland Raiders	27	1480.55	49.76%	Boston Patriots	14	1505.50	47.99%