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1960 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Houston Oilers

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.98 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.02 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

2.47 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.97 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Houston Oilers Division 10 4 0 .714 — 379 285 +94 7.26 +2.74
2 New York Titans 7 7 0 .500 3 382 399 -17 7.03 -0.03
3 Buffalo Bills 5 8 1 .393 4.5 296 303 -7 6.84 -1.34
4 Boston Patriots 5 9 0 .357 5 286 349 -63 6.91 -1.91
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Diego Chargers Division 10 4 0 .714 — 373 336 +37 7.02 +2.98
2 Dallas Texans 8 6 0 .571 2 362 253 +109 7.14 +0.86
3 Oakland Raiders 6 8 0 .429 4 319 388 -69 6.83 -0.83
4 Denver Broncos 4 9 1 .321 5.5 309 393 -84 6.97 -2.47

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Houston Oilers 24
San Diego Chargers 16

Jan 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Houston Oilers East 1525 10 7.26 +2.74 96.84% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Dallas Texans West 1519 8 7.14 +0.86 78.53% 0 4 6 7 8 10 13
San Diego Chargers West 1514 10 7.02 +2.98 97.69% 0 4 6 7 8 10 13
New York Titans East 1496 7 7.03 -0.03 63.58% 0 4 6 7 8 10 13
Buffalo Bills East 1494 5.5 6.84 -1.34 46.37% 0 4 5 7 8 10 13
Oakland Raiders West 1485 6 6.83 -0.83 46.12% 1 4 5 7 8 10 13
Boston Patriots East 1485 5 6.91 -1.91 24.85% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Denver Broncos West 1482 4.5 6.97 -2.47 24.63% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Boston Patriots —
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
New York Titans
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
New York Titans
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)

Within West

Team Texans Broncos Raiders Chargers
Dallas Texans —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Titans
Dallas Texans
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Denver Broncos
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Diego Chargers 10 7.02 +2.98
2 Houston Oilers 10 7.26 +2.74
3 Dallas Texans 8 7.14 +0.86
4 New York Titans 7 7.03 -0.03
5 Oakland Raiders 6 6.83 -0.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Denver Broncos 4.5 6.97 -2.47
2 Boston Patriots 5 6.91 -1.91
3 Buffalo Bills 5.5 6.84 -1.34
4 Oakland Raiders 6 6.83 -0.83
5 New York Titans 7 7.03 -0.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 San Diego Chargers 4 Oct 16 – Nov 13 1 in 24
2 New York Titans 3 Nov 24 – Dec 11 1 in 9
3 Dallas Texans 3 Oct 30 – Nov 13 1 in 9
4 Houston Oilers 3 Oct 9 – Oct 23 1 in 8
5 Boston Patriots 3 Nov 4 – Nov 18 1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 New York Titans 4 Oct 23 – Nov 11 1 in 22
2 Denver Broncos 4 Oct 30 – Nov 20 1 in 16
3 Boston Patriots 4 Nov 25 – Dec 18 1 in 12
4 Dallas Texans 3 Oct 2 – Oct 16 1 in 10
5 Oakland Raiders 3 Nov 27 – Dec 11 1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Houston Oilers29.65%25.72%23.90%20.73%
New York Titans25.37%25.25%24.74%24.64%
Boston Patriots22.64%24.80%26.00%26.56%
Buffalo Bills22.34%24.23%25.36%28.07%
Team1234
Dallas Texans27.51%25.35%24.61%22.53%
San Diego Chargers25.61%25.30%24.75%24.34%
Denver Broncos24.49%25.60%24.54%25.37%
Oakland Raiders22.39%23.75%26.10%27.76%
Team12345678
Houston Oilers15.10%14.12%13.51%13.08%11.75%11.86%10.66%9.92%
Dallas Texans14.33%13.12%13.04%12.26%11.99%12.17%12.14%10.95%
New York Titans12.29%12.93%12.75%13.04%12.35%12.36%12.21%12.07%
San Diego Chargers13.13%11.96%12.79%12.50%12.30%13.00%11.73%12.59%
Denver Broncos12.27%12.21%11.81%12.97%12.37%12.83%12.98%12.56%
Boston Patriots11.63%11.98%12.06%11.93%13.25%12.51%13.00%13.64%
Buffalo Bills10.86%11.94%11.86%12.18%12.91%12.51%13.32%14.42%
Oakland Raiders10.39%11.74%12.18%12.04%13.08%12.76%13.96%13.85%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Houston Oilers29.65%70.35%
New York Titans25.37%74.63%
Boston Patriots22.64%77.36%
Buffalo Bills22.34%77.66%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Dallas Texans27.51%72.49%
San Diego Chargers25.61%74.39%
Denver Broncos24.49%75.51%
Oakland Raiders22.39%77.61%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Houston Oilers 29.65% 15.73%
Dallas Texans 27.51% 14.30%
San Diego Chargers 25.61% 12.93%
New York Titans 25.37% 12.73%
Denver Broncos 24.49% 11.66%
Boston Patriots 22.64% 11.09%
Buffalo Bills 22.34% 11.07%
Oakland Raiders 22.39% 10.49%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDallas TexansDenver BroncosHouston OilersNew York TitansOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots2.81%2.70%2.83%2.75%
Buffalo Bills3.00%2.75%2.68%2.64%
Dallas Texans3.16%3.16%4.11%3.87%
Denver Broncos2.79%2.70%3.29%2.88%
Houston Oilers4.34%3.95%3.50%3.94%
New York Titans3.06%3.43%2.89%3.35%
Oakland Raiders2.65%2.22%3.03%2.59%
San Diego Chargers2.95%3.19%3.49%3.30%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Houston Oilers 51.50% Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 48.50% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston OilersSan Diego Chargers
Houston Oilers51.50%
San Diego Chargers48.50%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Houston Oilers 51.50% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. San Diego Chargers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
51.50%
San Diego Chargers 48.50% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Houston Oilers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
48.50%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1960-09-09 Denver Broncos L 10-13 1500.00 1500.00 53.33% 44.42% -1.91 0-1
1960-09-17 @ New York Titans W 28-24 1498.09 1504.51 43.51% 54.24% +2.24 1-1
1960-09-23 Buffalo Bills L 0-13 1500.33 1492.84 54.39% 43.36% -4.04 1-2
1960-10-08 @ San Diego Chargers W 35-0 1496.29 1498.46 44.11% 53.64% +6.54 2-2
1960-10-16 @ Oakland Raiders L 14-27 1502.83 1489.74 46.29% 51.46% -3.45 2-3
1960-10-23 @ Denver Broncos L 24-31 1499.38 1504.09 43.75% 54.00% -2.40 2-4
1960-10-28 San Diego Chargers L 16-45 1496.98 1494.20 53.73% 44.03% -5.97 2-5
1960-11-04 Oakland Raiders W 34-28 1491.01 1489.34 53.57% 44.18% +2.25 3-5
1960-11-11 New York Titans W 38-21 1493.26 1496.26 52.90% 44.85% +3.82 4-5
1960-11-18 Dallas Texans W 42-14 1497.08 1512.87 51.08% 46.67% +5.11 5-5
1960-11-25 Houston Oilers L 10-24 1502.19 1520.04 50.78% 46.97% -3.92 5-6
1960-12-04 @ Buffalo Bills L 14-38 1498.27 1494.99 44.89% 52.86% -4.55 5-7
1960-12-11 @ Dallas Texans L 0-34 1493.72 1510.17 42.10% 55.66% -5.09 5-8
1960-12-18 @ Houston Oilers L 21-37 1488.63 1521.63 39.79% 57.96% -3.30 5-9
1960-09-11 @ New York Titans L 3-27 1500.00 1500.00 44.42% 53.33% -4.51 0-1
1960-09-18 Denver Broncos L 21-27 1495.49 1501.91 52.42% 45.33% -2.65 0-2
1960-09-23 @ Boston Patriots W 13-0 1492.84 1500.33 43.36% 54.39% +4.05 1-2
1960-10-02 San Diego Chargers L 10-24 1496.89 1494.32 53.70% 44.06% -4.15 1-3
1960-10-16 New York Titans L 13-17 1492.74 1503.44 51.80% 45.95% -2.13 1-4
1960-10-23 Oakland Raiders W 38-9 1490.61 1493.19 52.96% 44.79% +4.99 2-4
1960-10-30 Houston Oilers W 25-24 1495.60 1515.18 50.53% 47.22% +0.98 3-4
1960-11-06 Dallas Texans L 28-45 1496.58 1503.77 52.31% 45.45% -4.45 3-5
1960-11-13 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-20 1492.13 1487.10 45.14% 52.61% -3.37 3-6
1960-11-20 @ San Diego Chargers W 32-3 1488.76 1505.95 41.99% 55.76% +6.19 4-6
1960-11-27 @ Denver Broncos T 38-38 1494.95 1492.40 44.78% 52.97% +0.04 4-6
1960-12-04 Boston Patriots W 38-14 1494.99 1498.27 52.86% 44.89% +4.55 5-6
1960-12-11 @ Houston Oilers L 23-31 1499.54 1519.19 41.65% 56.10% -2.44 5-7
1960-12-18 @ Dallas Texans L 7-24 1497.10 1515.26 41.86% 55.90% -3.58 5-8
1960-09-10 @ San Diego Chargers L 20-21 1500.00 1500.00 44.42% 53.33% -0.92 0-1
1960-09-16 @ Oakland Raiders W 34-16 1499.08 1495.74 44.90% 52.85% +4.63 1-1
1960-09-25 San Diego Chargers W 17-0 1503.71 1498.04 54.13% 43.62% +3.72 2-1
1960-10-02 New York Titans L 35-37 1507.43 1504.12 53.80% 43.95% -1.57 2-2
1960-10-09 Oakland Raiders L 19-20 1505.86 1488.59 55.77% 41.98% -1.15 2-3
1960-10-16 @ Houston Oilers L 10-20 1504.71 1508.24 43.92% 53.83% -2.87 2-4
1960-10-30 @ Denver Broncos W 17-14 1501.84 1506.49 43.76% 53.99% +1.93 3-4
1960-11-06 @ Buffalo Bills W 45-28 1503.77 1496.58 45.45% 52.31% +4.45 4-4
1960-11-13 Denver Broncos W 34-7 1508.22 1499.76 54.53% 43.22% +4.65 5-4
1960-11-18 @ Boston Patriots L 14-42 1512.87 1497.08 46.67% 51.08% -5.11 5-5
1960-11-24 @ New York Titans L 35-41 1507.76 1492.44 46.61% 51.14% -2.36 5-6
1960-12-04 Houston Oilers W 24-0 1505.40 1523.96 50.68% 47.07% +4.77 6-6
1960-12-11 Boston Patriots W 34-0 1510.17 1493.72 55.66% 42.10% +5.09 7-6
1960-12-18 Buffalo Bills W 24-7 1515.26 1497.10 55.90% 41.86% +3.57 8-6
1960-09-09 @ Boston Patriots W 13-10 1500.00 1500.00 44.42% 53.33% +1.91 1-0
1960-09-18 @ Buffalo Bills W 27-21 1501.91 1495.49 45.33% 52.42% +2.65 2-0
1960-09-23 @ New York Titans L 24-28 1504.56 1502.27 44.75% 53.01% -1.86 2-1
1960-10-02 Oakland Raiders W 31-14 1502.70 1492.26 54.81% 42.94% +3.67 3-1
1960-10-16 San Diego Chargers L 19-23 1506.37 1491.91 55.38% 42.38% -2.28 3-2
1960-10-23 Boston Patriots W 31-24 1504.09 1499.38 54.00% 43.75% +2.40 4-2
1960-10-30 Dallas Texans L 14-17 1506.49 1501.84 53.99% 43.76% -1.93 4-3
1960-11-06 Houston Oilers L 25-45 1504.56 1514.20 51.95% 45.80% -4.80 4-4
1960-11-13 @ Dallas Texans L 7-34 1499.76 1508.22 43.22% 54.53% -4.65 4-5
1960-11-20 @ Houston Oilers L 10-20 1495.11 1517.33 41.29% 56.46% -2.71 4-6
1960-11-27 Buffalo Bills T 38-38 1492.40 1494.95 52.97% 44.78% -0.04 4-6
1960-12-04 New York Titans L 27-30 1492.36 1494.80 52.98% 44.77% -1.89 4-7
1960-12-10 @ San Diego Chargers L 33-41 1490.47 1509.27 41.77% 55.99% -2.45 4-8
1960-12-17 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-48 1488.02 1479.13 45.69% 52.06% -5.83 4-9
1960-09-11 @ Oakland Raiders W 37-22 1500.00 1500.00 44.42% 53.33% +4.26 1-0
1960-09-18 San Diego Chargers W 38-28 1504.26 1500.92 53.81% 43.95% +2.88 2-0
1960-09-25 Oakland Raiders L 13-14 1507.14 1491.11 55.60% 42.16% -1.15 2-1
1960-10-09 New York Titans W 27-21 1505.99 1505.69 53.37% 44.38% +2.25 3-1
1960-10-16 Dallas Texans W 20-10 1508.24 1504.71 53.83% 43.92% +2.88 4-1
1960-10-23 @ New York Titans W 42-28 1511.12 1505.58 45.21% 52.54% +4.06 5-1
1960-10-30 @ Buffalo Bills L 24-25 1515.18 1495.60 47.22% 50.53% -0.98 5-2
1960-11-06 @ Denver Broncos W 45-25 1514.20 1504.56 45.80% 51.95% +4.80 6-2
1960-11-13 @ San Diego Chargers L 21-24 1519.00 1504.28 46.52% 51.23% -1.67 6-3
1960-11-20 Denver Broncos W 20-10 1517.33 1495.11 56.46% 41.29% +2.71 7-3
1960-11-25 @ Boston Patriots W 24-10 1520.04 1502.19 46.97% 50.78% +3.92 8-3
1960-12-04 @ Dallas Texans L 0-24 1523.96 1505.40 47.07% 50.68% -4.77 8-4
1960-12-11 Buffalo Bills W 31-23 1519.19 1499.54 56.10% 41.65% +2.44 9-4
1960-12-18 Boston Patriots W 37-21 1521.63 1488.63 57.96% 39.79% +3.31 10-4
1960-09-11 Buffalo Bills W 27-3 1500.00 1500.00 53.33% 44.42% +4.51 1-0
1960-09-17 Boston Patriots L 24-28 1504.51 1498.09 54.24% 43.51% -2.24 1-1
1960-09-23 Denver Broncos W 28-24 1502.27 1504.56 53.01% 44.75% +1.85 2-1
1960-10-02 @ Dallas Texans W 37-35 1504.12 1507.43 43.95% 53.80% +1.57 3-1
1960-10-09 @ Houston Oilers L 21-27 1505.69 1505.99 44.38% 53.37% -2.25 3-2
1960-10-16 @ Buffalo Bills W 17-13 1503.44 1492.74 45.95% 51.80% +2.14 4-2
1960-10-23 Houston Oilers L 28-42 1505.58 1511.12 52.54% 45.21% -4.06 4-3
1960-10-28 Oakland Raiders L 27-28 1501.52 1488.20 55.22% 42.54% -1.14 4-4
1960-11-04 San Diego Chargers L 7-21 1500.38 1500.17 53.36% 44.39% -4.12 4-5
1960-11-11 @ Boston Patriots L 21-38 1496.26 1493.26 44.85% 52.90% -3.82 4-6
1960-11-24 Dallas Texans W 41-35 1492.44 1507.76 51.14% 46.61% +2.36 5-6
1960-12-04 @ Denver Broncos W 30-27 1494.80 1492.36 44.77% 52.98% +1.89 6-6
1960-12-11 @ Oakland Raiders W 31-28 1496.69 1480.96 46.67% 51.08% +1.83 7-6
1960-12-18 @ San Diego Chargers L 43-50 1498.52 1511.72 42.55% 55.20% -2.34 7-7
1960-09-11 Houston Oilers L 22-37 1500.00 1500.00 53.33% 44.42% -4.26 0-1
1960-09-16 Dallas Texans L 16-34 1495.74 1499.08 52.85% 44.90% -4.63 0-2
1960-09-25 @ Houston Oilers W 14-13 1491.11 1507.14 42.16% 55.60% +1.15 1-2
1960-10-02 @ Denver Broncos L 14-31 1492.26 1502.70 42.94% 54.81% -3.67 1-3
1960-10-09 @ Dallas Texans W 20-19 1488.59 1505.86 41.98% 55.77% +1.15 2-3
1960-10-16 Boston Patriots W 27-14 1489.74 1502.83 51.46% 46.29% +3.45 3-3
1960-10-23 @ Buffalo Bills L 9-38 1493.19 1490.61 44.79% 52.96% -4.99 3-4
1960-10-28 @ New York Titans W 28-27 1488.20 1501.52 42.54% 55.22% +1.14 4-4
1960-11-04 @ Boston Patriots L 28-34 1489.34 1491.01 44.18% 53.57% -2.24 4-5
1960-11-13 Buffalo Bills W 20-7 1487.10 1492.13 52.61% 45.14% +3.36 5-5
1960-11-27 @ San Diego Chargers L 28-52 1490.46 1499.76 43.10% 54.65% -4.37 5-6
1960-12-04 San Diego Chargers L 17-41 1486.09 1504.14 50.75% 47.00% -5.13 5-7
1960-12-11 New York Titans L 28-31 1480.96 1496.69 51.08% 46.67% -1.83 5-8
1960-12-17 Denver Broncos W 48-10 1479.13 1488.02 52.06% 45.69% +5.83 6-8
1960-09-10 Dallas Texans W 21-20 1500.00 1500.00 53.33% 44.42% +0.92 1-0
1960-09-18 @ Houston Oilers L 28-38 1500.92 1504.26 43.95% 53.81% -2.88 1-1
1960-09-25 @ Dallas Texans L 0-17 1498.04 1503.71 43.62% 54.13% -3.72 1-2
1960-10-02 @ Buffalo Bills W 24-10 1494.32 1496.89 44.06% 53.70% +4.14 2-2
1960-10-08 Boston Patriots L 0-35 1498.46 1496.29 53.64% 44.11% -6.55 2-3
1960-10-16 @ Denver Broncos W 23-19 1491.91 1506.37 42.38% 55.38% +2.29 3-3
1960-10-28 @ Boston Patriots W 45-16 1494.20 1496.98 44.03% 53.73% +5.97 4-3
1960-11-04 @ New York Titans W 21-7 1500.17 1500.38 44.39% 53.36% +4.11 5-3
1960-11-13 Houston Oilers W 24-21 1504.28 1519.00 51.23% 46.52% +1.67 6-3
1960-11-20 Buffalo Bills L 3-32 1505.95 1488.76 55.76% 41.99% -6.19 6-4
1960-11-27 Oakland Raiders W 52-28 1499.76 1490.46 54.65% 43.10% +4.38 7-4
1960-12-04 @ Oakland Raiders W 41-17 1504.14 1486.09 47.00% 50.75% +5.13 8-4
1960-12-10 Denver Broncos W 41-33 1509.27 1490.47 55.99% 41.77% +2.45 9-4
1960-12-18 New York Titans W 50-43 1511.72 1498.52 55.20% 42.55% +2.33 10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1961-01-01 San Diego Chargers W 24-16 1524.94 1514.05 56.01% 43.99% +2.51 1-0
1961-01-01 @ Houston Oilers L 16-24 1514.05 1524.94 43.99% 56.01% -2.51 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1960-10-09 41.98% Oakland Raiders 1488.59 20 @ Dallas Texans 1505.86 19
2 1960-11-20 41.99% Buffalo Bills 1488.76 32 @ San Diego Chargers 1505.95 3
3 1960-09-25 42.16% Oakland Raiders 1491.11 14 @ Houston Oilers 1507.14 13
4 1960-10-16 42.38% San Diego Chargers 1491.91 23 @ Denver Broncos 1506.37 19
5 1960-10-28 42.54% Oakland Raiders 1488.20 28 @ New York Titans 1501.52 27
6 1960-09-23 43.36% Buffalo Bills 1492.84 13 @ Boston Patriots 1500.33 0
7 1960-09-17 43.51% Boston Patriots 1498.09 28 @ New York Titans 1504.51 24
8 1960-10-30 43.76% Dallas Texans 1501.84 17 @ Denver Broncos 1506.49 14
9 1960-10-02 43.95% New York Titans 1504.12 37 @ Dallas Texans 1507.43 35
10 1960-10-28 44.03% San Diego Chargers 1494.20 45 @ Boston Patriots 1496.98 16
11 1960-10-02 44.06% San Diego Chargers 1494.32 24 @ Buffalo Bills 1496.89 10
12 1960-10-08 44.11% Boston Patriots 1496.29 35 @ San Diego Chargers 1498.46 0
13 1960-11-04 44.39% San Diego Chargers 1500.17 21 @ New York Titans 1500.38 7
14 1960-09-09 44.42% Denver Broncos 1500.00 13 @ Boston Patriots 1500.00 10
15 1960-09-11 44.42% Houston Oilers 1500.00 37 @ Oakland Raiders 1500.00 22
16 1960-12-04 44.77% New York Titans 1494.80 30 @ Denver Broncos 1492.36 27
17 1960-09-16 44.90% Dallas Texans 1499.08 34 @ Oakland Raiders 1495.74 16
18 1960-10-23 45.21% Houston Oilers 1511.12 42 @ New York Titans 1505.58 28
19 1960-09-18 45.33% Denver Broncos 1501.91 27 @ Buffalo Bills 1495.49 21
20 1960-11-06 45.45% Dallas Texans 1503.77 45 @ Buffalo Bills 1496.58 28
21 1960-11-06 45.80% Houston Oilers 1514.20 45 @ Denver Broncos 1504.56 25
22 1960-10-16 45.95% New York Titans 1503.44 17 @ Buffalo Bills 1492.74 13
23 1960-12-11 46.67% New York Titans 1496.69 31 @ Oakland Raiders 1480.96 28
24 1960-11-25 46.97% Houston Oilers 1520.04 24 @ Boston Patriots 1502.19 10
25 1960-12-04 47.00% San Diego Chargers 1504.14 41 @ Oakland Raiders 1486.09 17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-10-08 6.55 Boston Patriots 35 1496.29 44.11% @ San Diego Chargers 0 1498.46 53.64%
2 1960-11-20 6.19 Buffalo Bills 32 1488.76 41.99% @ San Diego Chargers 3 1505.95 55.76%
3 1960-10-28 5.97 San Diego Chargers 45 1494.20 44.03% @ Boston Patriots 16 1496.98 53.73%
4 1960-12-17 5.83 @ Oakland Raiders 48 1479.13 52.06% Denver Broncos 10 1488.02 45.69%
5 1960-12-04 5.13 San Diego Chargers 41 1504.14 47.00% @ Oakland Raiders 17 1486.09 50.75%
6 1960-11-18 5.11 @ Boston Patriots 42 1497.08 51.08% Dallas Texans 14 1512.87 46.67%
7 1960-12-11 5.09 @ Dallas Texans 34 1510.17 55.66% Boston Patriots 0 1493.72 42.10%
8 1960-10-23 4.99 @ Buffalo Bills 38 1490.61 52.96% Oakland Raiders 9 1493.19 44.79%
9 1960-11-06 4.80 Houston Oilers 45 1514.20 45.80% @ Denver Broncos 25 1504.56 51.95%
10 1960-12-04 4.77 @ Dallas Texans 24 1505.40 50.68% Houston Oilers 0 1523.96 47.07%
11 1960-11-13 4.65 @ Dallas Texans 34 1508.22 54.53% Denver Broncos 7 1499.76 43.22%
12 1960-09-16 4.63 Dallas Texans 34 1499.08 44.90% @ Oakland Raiders 16 1495.74 52.85%
13 1960-12-04 4.55 @ Buffalo Bills 38 1494.99 52.86% Boston Patriots 14 1498.27 44.89%
14 1960-09-11 4.51 @ New York Titans 27 1500.00 53.33% Buffalo Bills 3 1500.00 44.42%
15 1960-11-06 4.45 Dallas Texans 45 1503.77 45.45% @ Buffalo Bills 28 1496.58 52.31%
16 1960-11-27 4.38 @ San Diego Chargers 52 1499.76 54.65% Oakland Raiders 28 1490.46 43.10%
17 1960-09-11 4.26 Houston Oilers 37 1500.00 44.42% @ Oakland Raiders 22 1500.00 53.33%
18 1960-10-02 4.15 San Diego Chargers 24 1494.32 44.06% @ Buffalo Bills 10 1496.89 53.70%
19 1960-11-04 4.12 San Diego Chargers 21 1500.17 44.39% @ New York Titans 7 1500.38 53.36%
20 1960-10-23 4.06 Houston Oilers 42 1511.12 45.21% @ New York Titans 28 1505.58 52.54%
21 1960-09-23 4.05 Buffalo Bills 13 1492.84 43.36% @ Boston Patriots 0 1500.33 54.39%
22 1960-11-25 3.92 Houston Oilers 24 1520.04 46.97% @ Boston Patriots 10 1502.19 50.78%
23 1960-11-11 3.82 @ Boston Patriots 38 1493.26 52.90% New York Titans 21 1496.26 44.85%
24 1960-09-25 3.72 @ Dallas Texans 17 1503.71 54.13% San Diego Chargers 0 1498.04 43.62%
25 1960-10-02 3.67 @ Denver Broncos 31 1502.70 54.81% Oakland Raiders 14 1492.26 42.94%