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1964 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1961

Biggest Overachiever

Buffalo Bills

4.44 wins above expected

12 wins · 7.56 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Denver Broncos

3.32 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.82 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills Division 12 2 0 .857 — 400 242 +158 7.56 +4.44
2 Boston Patriots 10 3 1 .750 1.5 365 297 +68 7.67 +2.83
3 New York Jets 5 8 1 .393 6.5 278 315 -37 6.56 -1.06
4 Houston Oilers 4 10 0 .286 8 310 355 -45 6.72 -2.72
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Diego Chargers Division 8 5 1 .607 — 341 300 +41 7.68 +0.82
2 Kansas City Chiefs 7 7 0 .500 1.5 366 306 +60 7.15 -0.15
3 Oakland Raiders 5 7 2 .429 2.5 303 350 -47 6.84 -0.84
4 Denver Broncos 2 11 1 .179 6 240 438 -198 5.82 -3.32

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Buffalo Bills 20
San Diego Chargers 7

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Buffalo Bills East 1559 12 7.56 +4.44 99.93% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Boston Patriots East 1543 10.5 7.67 +2.83 99.09% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
San Diego Chargers West 1534 8.5 7.68 +0.82 88.57% 1 4 6 7 9 10 13
Kansas City Chiefs West 1518 7 7.15 -0.15 65.58% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Oakland Raiders West 1491 6 6.84 -0.84 72.15% 0 4 5 6 8 9 13
Houston Oilers East 1473 4 6.72 -2.72 15.40% 1 3 5 6 8 9 13
New York Jets East 1464 5.5 6.56 -1.06 57.43% 0 3 5 6 7 9 12
Denver Broncos West 1418 2.5 5.82 -3.32 14.11% 0 3 4 5 7 8 12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Boston Patriots —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)

Within West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Denver Broncos
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Buffalo Bills 12 7.56 +4.44
2 Boston Patriots 10.5 7.67 +2.83
3 San Diego Chargers 8.5 7.68 +0.82
4 Kansas City Chiefs 7 7.15 -0.15
5 Oakland Raiders 6 6.84 -0.84

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Denver Broncos 2.5 5.82 -3.32
2 Houston Oilers 4 6.72 -2.72
3 New York Jets 5.5 6.56 -1.06
4 Oakland Raiders 6 6.84 -0.84
5 Kansas City Chiefs 7 7.15 -0.15

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Buffalo Bills 9 Sep 13 – Nov 8 1 in 291
2 San Diego Chargers 6 Oct 9 – Nov 15 1 in 84
3 Boston Patriots 5 Nov 6 – Dec 6 1 in 36
4 Kansas City Chiefs 2 Sep 27 – Oct 4 1 in 5
5 Houston Oilers 2 Sep 19 – Sep 27 1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Houston Oilers 9 Oct 4 – Nov 29 1 in 440
2 Oakland Raiders 5 Sep 13 – Oct 10 1 in 37
3 Denver Broncos 4 Sep 12 – Oct 4 1 in 14
4 Kansas City Chiefs 3 Oct 11 – Oct 23 1 in 9
5 New York Jets 3 Nov 8 – Nov 22 1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Boston Patriots34.17%29.23%21.15%15.45%
Buffalo Bills32.64%26.88%23.65%16.83%
Houston Oilers17.76%22.39%27.27%32.58%
New York Jets15.43%21.50%27.93%35.14%
Team1234
San Diego Chargers39.37%28.68%19.36%12.59%
Kansas City Chiefs28.32%28.19%25.36%18.13%
Oakland Raiders22.28%26.30%28.82%22.60%
Denver Broncos10.03%16.83%26.46%46.68%
Team12345678
Boston Patriots18.84%17.45%14.97%13.62%11.41%9.82%8.37%5.52%
San Diego Chargers19.49%17.33%14.69%13.33%11.20%9.46%8.13%6.37%
Buffalo Bills18.22%15.72%14.82%12.83%11.83%11.23%8.91%6.44%
Kansas City Chiefs13.21%13.50%13.09%13.16%13.18%12.28%11.73%9.85%
Oakland Raiders9.87%11.06%12.50%12.78%13.50%13.95%14.12%12.22%
Houston Oilers9.01%9.97%11.64%12.37%14.01%14.32%14.31%14.37%
New York Jets7.48%9.66%11.09%12.38%13.19%14.36%15.57%16.27%
Denver Broncos3.88%5.31%7.20%9.53%11.68%14.58%18.86%28.96%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Boston Patriots34.17%65.83%
Buffalo Bills32.64%67.36%
Houston Oilers17.76%82.24%
New York Jets15.43%84.57%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers39.37%60.63%
Kansas City Chiefs28.32%71.68%
Oakland Raiders22.28%77.72%
Denver Broncos10.03%89.97%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 39.37% 20.21%
Boston Patriots 34.17% 19.05%
Buffalo Bills 32.64% 18.68%
Kansas City Chiefs 28.32% 13.55%
Oakland Raiders 22.28% 9.84%
Houston Oilers 17.76% 8.29%
New York Jets 15.43% 6.91%
Denver Broncos 10.03% 3.47%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots2.26%5.08%4.72%6.99%
Buffalo Bills2.28%5.23%4.41%6.76%
Denver Broncos1.20%1.01%0.77%0.49%
Houston Oilers1.11%2.31%1.97%2.90%
Kansas City Chiefs4.08%4.22%2.71%2.54%
New York Jets0.91%2.15%1.34%2.51%
Oakland Raiders2.99%2.99%2.10%1.76%
San Diego Chargers6.85%5.74%3.89%3.73%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills 54.16% Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 45.84% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Buffalo BillsSan Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills54.16%
San Diego Chargers45.84%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Buffalo Bills 54.16% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. San Diego Chargers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
54.16%
San Diego Chargers 45.84% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Buffalo Bills
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
45.84%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1964-09-13 @ Oakland Raiders W 17-14 1513.99 1507.88 36.54% 57.82% +3.70 1-0
1964-09-20 @ San Diego Chargers W 33-28 1517.69 1528.55 34.31% 60.07% +4.95 2-0
1964-09-27 New York Jets W 26-10 1522.64 1481.55 63.92% 30.51% +4.62 3-0
1964-10-04 @ Denver Broncos W 39-10 1527.26 1452.79 46.06% 48.27% +9.66 4-0
1964-10-09 San Diego Chargers L 17-26 1536.92 1516.34 61.33% 33.06% -6.77 4-1
1964-10-16 Oakland Raiders T 43-43 1530.15 1482.80 64.68% 29.75% -0.32 4-1
1964-10-23 Kansas City Chiefs W 24-7 1529.83 1503.83 62.03% 32.37% +5.06 5-1
1964-10-31 @ New York Jets L 14-35 1534.89 1482.31 42.94% 51.39% -7.36 5-2
1964-11-06 Houston Oilers W 25-24 1527.53 1481.79 64.49% 29.95% +1.13 6-2
1964-11-15 @ Buffalo Bills W 36-28 1528.66 1552.09 32.70% 61.70% +6.43 7-2
1964-11-20 Denver Broncos W 12-7 1535.09 1429.77 71.25% 23.30% +1.99 8-2
1964-11-29 @ Houston Oilers W 34-17 1537.08 1470.24 44.97% 49.36% +7.56 9-2
1964-12-06 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 31-24 1544.64 1502.80 41.43% 52.91% +5.18 10-2
1964-12-20 Buffalo Bills L 14-24 1549.82 1551.78 58.38% 35.99% -6.81 10-3
1964-09-13 Kansas City Chiefs W 34-17 1498.51 1507.58 57.42% 36.94% +5.74 1-0
1964-09-20 Denver Broncos W 30-13 1504.25 1466.67 63.48% 30.94% +4.83 2-0
1964-09-26 San Diego Chargers W 30-3 1509.08 1523.60 56.69% 37.67% +7.37 3-0
1964-10-03 Oakland Raiders W 23-20 1516.45 1491.54 61.89% 32.51% +2.13 4-0
1964-10-11 @ Houston Oilers W 48-17 1518.58 1503.33 37.77% 56.59% +11.63 5-0
1964-10-18 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 35-22 1530.21 1511.29 38.27% 56.09% +7.47 6-0
1964-10-24 New York Jets W 34-24 1537.68 1485.82 65.23% 29.21% +3.51 7-0
1964-11-01 Houston Oilers W 24-10 1541.19 1485.88 65.64% 28.81% +4.09 8-0
1964-11-08 @ New York Jets W 20-7 1545.28 1489.67 43.37% 50.96% +6.81 9-0
1964-11-15 Boston Patriots L 28-36 1552.09 1528.66 61.70% 32.70% -6.42 9-1
1964-11-26 @ San Diego Chargers W 27-24 1545.67 1549.14 35.27% 59.10% +3.77 10-1
1964-12-06 @ Oakland Raiders L 13-16 1549.44 1486.31 44.44% 49.89% -2.87 10-2
1964-12-13 @ Denver Broncos W 30-19 1546.57 1427.72 52.40% 41.94% +5.21 11-2
1964-12-20 @ Boston Patriots W 24-14 1551.78 1549.82 35.99% 58.38% +6.80 12-2
1964-09-12 @ New York Jets L 6-30 1473.23 1474.99 35.50% 58.87% -6.56 0-1
1964-09-20 @ Buffalo Bills L 13-30 1466.67 1504.25 30.94% 63.48% -4.84 0-2
1964-09-27 Houston Oilers L 17-38 1461.83 1500.47 53.36% 40.98% -9.04 0-3
1964-10-04 Boston Patriots L 10-39 1452.79 1527.26 48.27% 46.06% -9.66 0-4
1964-10-11 Kansas City Chiefs W 33-27 1443.13 1515.47 48.57% 45.75% +4.18 1-4
1964-10-18 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-42 1447.31 1523.12 26.46% 68.03% -5.34 1-5
1964-10-25 @ Oakland Raiders L 7-40 1441.97 1483.11 30.50% 63.92% -6.64 1-6
1964-11-01 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 39-49 1435.33 1498.77 27.86% 66.60% -3.35 1-7
1964-11-08 San Diego Chargers L 20-31 1431.98 1536.18 44.01% 50.32% -5.46 1-8
1964-11-15 New York Jets W 20-16 1426.52 1482.86 50.86% 43.47% +3.25 2-8
1964-11-20 @ Boston Patriots L 7-12 1429.77 1535.09 23.30% 71.25% -1.99 2-9
1964-11-29 Oakland Raiders T 20-20 1427.78 1486.25 50.56% 43.78% -0.06 2-9
1964-12-13 Buffalo Bills L 19-30 1427.72 1546.57 41.94% 52.40% -5.20 2-10
1964-12-20 @ Houston Oilers L 15-34 1422.52 1468.31 29.94% 64.49% -4.96 2-11
1964-09-12 @ San Diego Chargers L 21-27 1498.25 1525.57 32.21% 62.19% -2.99 0-1
1964-09-19 Oakland Raiders W 42-28 1495.26 1504.19 57.44% 36.92% +5.21 1-1
1964-09-27 @ Denver Broncos W 38-17 1500.47 1461.83 40.98% 53.36% +9.04 2-1
1964-10-04 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-28 1509.51 1509.29 35.76% 58.61% -6.18 2-2
1964-10-11 Buffalo Bills L 17-48 1503.33 1518.58 56.59% 37.77% -11.63 2-3
1964-10-17 @ New York Jets L 21-24 1491.70 1483.41 36.83% 57.53% -2.40 2-4
1964-10-25 San Diego Chargers L 17-20 1489.30 1528.46 53.28% 41.06% -3.42 2-5
1964-11-01 @ Buffalo Bills L 10-24 1485.88 1541.19 28.81% 65.64% -4.09 2-6
1964-11-06 @ Boston Patriots L 24-25 1481.79 1527.53 29.95% 64.49% -1.14 2-7
1964-11-15 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-20 1480.65 1477.94 36.09% 58.28% -4.30 2-8
1964-11-22 Kansas City Chiefs L 19-28 1476.35 1502.12 55.14% 39.20% -6.11 2-9
1964-11-29 Boston Patriots L 17-34 1470.24 1537.08 49.36% 44.97% -7.56 2-10
1964-12-13 New York Jets W 33-17 1462.68 1474.79 57.01% 37.35% +5.63 3-10
1964-12-20 Denver Broncos W 34-15 1468.31 1422.52 64.49% 29.94% +4.95 4-10
1964-09-13 @ Buffalo Bills L 17-34 1507.58 1498.51 36.94% 57.42% -5.73 0-1
1964-09-27 @ Oakland Raiders W 21-9 1501.85 1498.98 36.11% 58.26% +7.44 1-1
1964-10-04 Houston Oilers W 28-7 1509.29 1509.51 58.61% 35.76% +6.18 2-1
1964-10-11 @ Denver Broncos L 27-33 1515.47 1443.13 45.75% 48.57% -4.18 2-2
1964-10-18 Buffalo Bills L 22-35 1511.29 1530.21 56.09% 38.27% -7.46 2-3
1964-10-23 @ Boston Patriots L 7-24 1503.83 1529.83 32.37% 62.03% -5.06 2-4
1964-11-01 Denver Broncos W 49-39 1498.77 1435.33 66.60% 27.86% +3.35 3-4
1964-11-08 Oakland Raiders W 42-7 1502.12 1485.45 60.83% 33.56% +7.51 4-4
1964-11-15 San Diego Chargers L 14-28 1509.63 1541.63 54.28% 40.06% -7.51 4-5
1964-11-22 @ Houston Oilers W 28-19 1502.12 1476.35 39.20% 55.14% +6.11 5-5
1964-11-29 @ New York Jets L 14-27 1508.23 1475.60 40.15% 54.19% -5.43 5-6
1964-12-06 Boston Patriots L 24-31 1502.80 1544.64 52.91% 41.43% -5.18 5-7
1964-12-13 @ San Diego Chargers W 49-6 1497.62 1551.62 28.96% 65.48% +15.80 6-7
1964-12-20 New York Jets W 24-7 1513.42 1469.16 64.31% 30.12% +4.72 7-7
1964-09-12 Denver Broncos W 30-6 1474.99 1473.23 58.87% 35.50% +6.56 1-0
1964-09-27 @ Boston Patriots L 10-26 1481.55 1522.64 30.51% 63.92% -4.63 1-1
1964-10-03 San Diego Chargers T 17-17 1476.92 1516.24 53.26% 41.08% -0.11 1-1
1964-10-10 Oakland Raiders W 35-13 1476.81 1489.41 56.95% 37.41% +6.60 2-1
1964-10-17 Houston Oilers W 24-21 1483.41 1491.70 57.53% 36.83% +2.41 3-1
1964-10-24 @ Buffalo Bills L 24-34 1485.82 1537.68 29.21% 65.23% -3.51 3-2
1964-10-31 Boston Patriots W 35-14 1482.31 1534.89 51.39% 42.94% +7.36 4-2
1964-11-08 Buffalo Bills L 7-20 1489.67 1545.28 50.96% 43.37% -6.81 4-3
1964-11-15 @ Denver Broncos L 16-20 1482.86 1426.52 43.47% 50.86% -3.25 4-4
1964-11-22 @ Oakland Raiders L 26-35 1479.61 1482.24 35.38% 58.99% -4.01 4-5
1964-11-29 Kansas City Chiefs W 27-14 1475.60 1508.23 54.19% 40.15% +5.44 5-5
1964-12-06 @ San Diego Chargers L 3-38 1481.04 1545.37 27.76% 66.71% -6.25 5-6
1964-12-13 @ Houston Oilers L 17-33 1474.79 1462.68 37.35% 57.01% -5.63 5-7
1964-12-20 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-24 1469.16 1513.42 30.12% 64.31% -4.71 5-8
1964-09-13 Boston Patriots L 14-17 1507.88 1513.99 57.82% 36.54% -3.69 0-1
1964-09-19 @ Houston Oilers L 28-42 1504.19 1495.26 36.92% 57.44% -5.21 0-2
1964-09-27 Kansas City Chiefs L 9-21 1498.98 1501.85 58.26% 36.11% -7.44 0-3
1964-10-03 @ Buffalo Bills L 20-23 1491.54 1516.45 32.51% 61.89% -2.13 0-4
1964-10-10 @ New York Jets L 13-35 1489.41 1476.81 37.41% 56.95% -6.61 0-5
1964-10-16 @ Boston Patriots T 43-43 1482.80 1530.15 29.75% 64.68% +0.31 0-5
1964-10-25 Denver Broncos W 40-7 1483.11 1441.97 63.92% 30.50% +6.65 1-5
1964-11-01 @ San Diego Chargers L 17-31 1489.76 1531.87 30.38% 64.04% -4.31 1-6
1964-11-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-42 1485.45 1502.12 33.56% 60.83% -7.51 1-7
1964-11-15 Houston Oilers W 20-10 1477.94 1480.65 58.28% 36.09% +4.30 2-7
1964-11-22 New York Jets W 35-26 1482.24 1479.61 58.99% 35.38% +4.01 3-7
1964-11-29 @ Denver Broncos T 20-20 1486.25 1427.78 43.78% 50.56% +0.06 3-7
1964-12-06 Buffalo Bills W 16-13 1486.31 1549.44 49.89% 44.44% +2.87 4-7
1964-12-20 San Diego Chargers W 21-20 1489.18 1535.82 52.23% 42.10% +1.58 5-7
1964-09-12 Houston Oilers W 27-21 1525.57 1498.25 62.19% 32.21% +2.98 1-0
1964-09-20 Boston Patriots L 28-33 1528.55 1517.69 60.07% 34.31% -4.95 1-1
1964-09-26 @ Buffalo Bills L 3-30 1523.60 1509.08 37.67% 56.69% -7.36 1-2
1964-10-03 @ New York Jets T 17-17 1516.24 1476.92 41.08% 53.26% +0.10 1-2
1964-10-09 @ Boston Patriots W 26-17 1516.34 1536.92 33.06% 61.33% +6.78 2-2
1964-10-18 Denver Broncos W 42-14 1523.12 1447.31 68.03% 26.46% +5.34 3-2
1964-10-25 @ Houston Oilers W 20-17 1528.46 1489.30 41.06% 53.28% +3.41 4-2
1964-11-01 Oakland Raiders W 31-17 1531.87 1489.76 64.04% 30.38% +4.31 5-2
1964-11-08 @ Denver Broncos W 31-20 1536.18 1431.98 50.32% 44.01% +5.45 6-2
1964-11-15 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 28-14 1541.63 1509.63 40.06% 54.28% +7.51 7-2
1964-11-26 Buffalo Bills L 24-27 1549.14 1545.67 59.10% 35.27% -3.77 7-3
1964-12-06 New York Jets W 38-3 1545.37 1481.04 66.71% 27.76% +6.25 8-3
1964-12-13 Kansas City Chiefs L 6-49 1551.62 1497.62 65.48% 28.96% -15.80 8-4
1964-12-20 @ Oakland Raiders L 20-21 1535.82 1489.18 42.10% 52.23% -1.58 8-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1964-12-26 San Diego Chargers W 20-7 1558.58 1534.24 64.86% 35.14% +4.45 1-0
1964-12-26 @ Buffalo Bills L 7-20 1534.24 1558.58 35.14% 64.86% -4.45 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-12-13 28.96% Kansas City Chiefs 1497.62 49 @ San Diego Chargers 1551.62 6
2 1964-11-15 32.70% Boston Patriots 1528.66 36 @ Buffalo Bills 1552.09 28
3 1964-10-09 33.06% San Diego Chargers 1516.34 26 @ Boston Patriots 1536.92 17
4 1964-09-20 34.31% Boston Patriots 1517.69 33 @ San Diego Chargers 1528.55 28
5 1964-11-26 35.27% Buffalo Bills 1545.67 27 @ San Diego Chargers 1549.14 24
6 1964-12-20 35.99% Buffalo Bills 1551.78 24 @ Boston Patriots 1549.82 14
7 1964-09-27 36.11% Kansas City Chiefs 1501.85 21 @ Oakland Raiders 1498.98 9
8 1964-09-13 36.54% Boston Patriots 1513.99 17 @ Oakland Raiders 1507.88 14
9 1964-10-11 37.77% Buffalo Bills 1518.58 48 @ Houston Oilers 1503.33 17
10 1964-10-18 38.27% Buffalo Bills 1530.21 35 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1511.29 22
11 1964-11-22 39.20% Kansas City Chiefs 1502.12 28 @ Houston Oilers 1476.35 19
12 1964-11-15 40.06% San Diego Chargers 1541.63 28 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1509.63 14
13 1964-09-27 40.98% Houston Oilers 1500.47 38 @ Denver Broncos 1461.83 17
14 1964-10-25 41.06% San Diego Chargers 1528.46 20 @ Houston Oilers 1489.30 17
15 1964-12-06 41.43% Boston Patriots 1544.64 31 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1502.80 24
16 1964-11-08 43.37% Buffalo Bills 1545.28 20 @ New York Jets 1489.67 7
17 1964-11-29 44.97% Boston Patriots 1537.08 34 @ Houston Oilers 1470.24 17
18 1964-10-04 46.06% Boston Patriots 1527.26 39 @ Denver Broncos 1452.79 10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-12-13 15.80 Kansas City Chiefs 49 1497.62 28.96% @ San Diego Chargers 6 1551.62 65.48%
2 1964-10-11 11.63 Buffalo Bills 48 1518.58 37.77% @ Houston Oilers 17 1503.33 56.59%
3 1964-10-04 9.66 Boston Patriots 39 1527.26 46.06% @ Denver Broncos 10 1452.79 48.27%
4 1964-09-27 9.04 Houston Oilers 38 1500.47 40.98% @ Denver Broncos 17 1461.83 53.36%
5 1964-11-29 7.56 Boston Patriots 34 1537.08 44.97% @ Houston Oilers 17 1470.24 49.36%
6 1964-11-08 7.51 @ Kansas City Chiefs 42 1502.12 60.83% Oakland Raiders 7 1485.45 33.56%
7 1964-11-15 7.51 San Diego Chargers 28 1541.63 40.06% @ Kansas City Chiefs 14 1509.63 54.28%
8 1964-10-18 7.47 Buffalo Bills 35 1530.21 38.27% @ Kansas City Chiefs 22 1511.29 56.09%
9 1964-09-27 7.44 Kansas City Chiefs 21 1501.85 36.11% @ Oakland Raiders 9 1498.98 58.26%
10 1964-09-26 7.37 @ Buffalo Bills 30 1509.08 56.69% San Diego Chargers 3 1523.60 37.67%
11 1964-10-31 7.36 @ New York Jets 35 1482.31 51.39% Boston Patriots 14 1534.89 42.94%
12 1964-11-08 6.81 Buffalo Bills 20 1545.28 43.37% @ New York Jets 7 1489.67 50.96%
13 1964-12-20 6.81 Buffalo Bills 24 1551.78 35.99% @ Boston Patriots 14 1549.82 58.38%
14 1964-10-09 6.78 San Diego Chargers 26 1516.34 33.06% @ Boston Patriots 17 1536.92 61.33%
15 1964-10-25 6.65 @ Oakland Raiders 40 1483.11 63.92% Denver Broncos 7 1441.97 30.50%
16 1964-10-10 6.61 @ New York Jets 35 1476.81 56.95% Oakland Raiders 13 1489.41 37.41%
17 1964-09-12 6.56 @ New York Jets 30 1474.99 58.87% Denver Broncos 6 1473.23 35.50%
18 1964-11-15 6.43 Boston Patriots 36 1528.66 32.70% @ Buffalo Bills 28 1552.09 61.70%
19 1964-12-06 6.25 @ San Diego Chargers 38 1545.37 66.71% New York Jets 3 1481.04 27.76%
20 1964-10-04 6.18 @ Kansas City Chiefs 28 1509.29 58.61% Houston Oilers 7 1509.51 35.76%
21 1964-11-22 6.11 Kansas City Chiefs 28 1502.12 39.20% @ Houston Oilers 19 1476.35 55.14%
22 1964-09-13 5.74 @ Buffalo Bills 34 1498.51 57.42% Kansas City Chiefs 17 1507.58 36.94%
23 1964-12-13 5.63 @ Houston Oilers 33 1462.68 57.01% New York Jets 17 1474.79 37.35%
24 1964-11-08 5.46 San Diego Chargers 31 1536.18 50.32% @ Denver Broncos 20 1431.98 44.01%
25 1964-11-29 5.44 @ New York Jets 27 1475.60 54.19% Kansas City Chiefs 14 1508.23 40.15%