1964 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills

1st Title

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1961

Biggest Overachiever

Buffalo Bills

3.36 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.64 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

1.80 wins below expected

4 wins · 5.80 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	12	2	0	.857	-	400	242	+158	8.64	+3.36
2	Boston Patriots	10	3	1	.750	1.5	365	297	+68	8.64	+1.86
3	New York Jets	5	8	1	.393	6.5	278	315	-37	5.61	-0.11
4	Houston Oilers	4	10	0	.286	8	310	355	-45	5.80	-1.80

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	8	5	1	.607	-	341	300	+41	9.30	-0.80
2	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7	0	.500	1.5	366	306	+60	7.21	-0.21
3	Oakland Raiders	5	7	2	.429	2.5	303	350	-47	7.10	-1.10
4	Denver Broncos	2	11	1	.179	6	240	438	-198	3.70	-1.20

Playoff Bracket

AFL Championship Game

Buffalo Bills 20

San Diego Chargers 7

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Buffalo Bills	East	1656	12	8.64	+3.36	99.52%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Boston Patriots	East	1601	10.5	8.64	+1.86	97.45%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Diego Chargers	West	1582	8.5	9.30	-0.80	61.12%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Kansas City Chiefs	West	1555	7	7.21	-0.21	64.48%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	West	1497	6	7.10	-1.10	66.59%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Houston Oilers	East	1416	4	5.80	-1.80	29.92%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
New York Jets	East	1405	5.5	5.61	-0.11	76.68%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Denver Broncos	West	1289	2.5	3.70	-1.20	54.64%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Boston Patriots	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Boston Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Patriots	Bills	Oilers	Jets
Denver Broncos	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	3.57%
7–13	—	1.79%	2.68%	4.46%	1.79%	2.68%	0.89%	14.29%
14–20	—	2.68%	8.93%	4.46%	8.04%	1.79%	1.79%	27.68%
21–27	—	4.46%	4.46%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	—	20.54%
28–34	1.79%	1.79%	8.04%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	17.86%
35–41	0.89%	2.68%	1.79%	1.79%	0.89%	—	0.89%	8.93%
42+	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	—	0.89%	0.89%	1.79%	7.14%
Total	3.57%	14.29%	27.68%	20.54%	17.86%	8.93%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.24	23.24	+0.00
SD	10.79	10.79	17.00
CV	0.46	0.46	—
Max	49	49	+43
Min	3	3	-43

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.07	21.21	+4.86
SD	10.18	10.84	12.83
CV	0.39	0.51	—
Max	43	43	+29
Min	12	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.57	17.29	+11.29
SD	8.21	8.17	10.49
CV	0.29	0.47	—
Max	48	36	+31
Min	13	3	-8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.14	31.29	-14.14
SD	9.49	10.28	12.40
CV	0.55	0.33	—
Max	39	49	+6
Min	6	12	-33

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	35.71%	28.57%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.14	25.36	-3.21
SD	10.83	8.41	15.77
CV	0.49	0.33	—
Max	42	48	+21
Min	7	15	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.14	21.86	+4.29
SD	12.71	12.33	19.75
CV	0.49	0.56	—
Max	49	39	+43
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.86	22.50	-2.64
SD	10.48	9.63	17.48
CV	0.53	0.43	—
Max	35	38	+24
Min	3	6	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	25.00	-3.36
SD	11.03	11.98	16.14
CV	0.51	0.48	—
Max	43	43	+33
Min	7	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	—	50.00%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.36	21.43	+2.93
SD	10.77	10.85	19.89
CV	0.44	0.51	—
Max	42	49	+35
Min	3	3	-43

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.86	+0.6
Allowed	0.83	-0.5
Differential	0.90	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	12	8.64	+3.36
2	Boston Patriots	10.5	8.64	+1.86
3	New York Jets	5.5	5.61	-0.11
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7.21	-0.21
5	San Diego Chargers	8.5	9.30	-0.80

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	4	5.80	-1.80
2	Denver Broncos	2.5	3.70	-1.20
3	Oakland Raiders	6	7.10	-1.10
4	San Diego Chargers	8.5	9.30	-0.80
5	Kansas City Chiefs	7	7.21	-0.21

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Buffalo Bills	9	Sep 13 – Nov 8	1 in 97
2	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 9 – Nov 15	1 in 22
3	Boston Patriots	5	Nov 6 – Dec 6	1 in 18
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2	Sep 27 – Oct 4	1 in 5
5	Houston Oilers	2	Sep 19 – Sep 27	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	9	Oct 4 – Nov 29	1 in 96
2	Oakland Raiders	5	Sep 13 – Oct 10	1 in 73
3	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Oct 11 – Oct 23	1 in 11
4	New York Jets	3	Nov 8 – Nov 22	1 in 7
5	San Diego Chargers	2	Sep 20 – Sep 26	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	46.25%	36.75%	12.95%	4.05%
Boston Patriots	45.30%	37.61%	13.10%	3.98%
Houston Oilers	4.71%	13.61%	38.16%	43.52%
New York Jets	3.74%	12.02%	35.79%	48.45%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	68.90%	22.19%	8.25%	0.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.81%	38.46%	39.09%	6.63%
Oakland Raiders	14.93%	36.67%	40.77%	7.63%
Denver Broncos	0.37%	2.68%	11.89%	85.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
San Diego Chargers	38.12%	24.83%	16.33%	10.36%	6.00%	2.98%	1.15%	0.23%
Boston Patriots	22.94%	23.40%	20.58%	14.73%	9.70%	5.58%	2.51%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	23.42%	23.14%	19.93%	14.78%	9.96%	5.47%	2.69%	0.60%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.63%	11.37%	15.45%	18.90%	19.08%	15.38%	9.80%	3.39%
Oakland Raiders	6.12%	10.38%	14.79%	18.73%	19.12%	16.11%	10.78%	3.97%
Houston Oilers	1.58%	3.63%	6.65%	11.02%	16.39%	22.51%	24.54%	13.69%
New York Jets	1.11%	3.01%	5.55%	9.69%	15.50%	22.47%	26.93%	15.74%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.23%	0.71%	1.80%	4.24%	9.50%	21.60%	61.83%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	46.25%	53.75%
Boston Patriots	45.30%	54.70%
Houston Oilers	4.71%	95.29%
New York Jets	3.74%	96.26%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	68.90%	31.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.81%	84.19%
Oakland Raiders	14.93%	85.07%
Denver Broncos	0.37%	99.63%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+23.21%

Fortress

58.93%5.36%35.71%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 82.15 Elo pts.

22 Elo

0.046 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.91 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.77+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.9

Few Contenders

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

29%

Buffalo Bills, 2nd of 8

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

60.8%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.89 · Elevated: 1.89 to 2.57 · High Variance: 2.57 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 · Close: 1.09 to 1.47 · Off Target: 1.47 to 1.92 · Well Off Target: 1.92 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.64 · As Expected: 0.64 to 1.06 · More Than Expected: 1.06 to 1.7 · Far More Than Expected: 1.7 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.57 wins

As Expected

01.714

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.88

Pinpoint

01.283

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

99.52%

Buffalo Bills

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

29.92%

Houston Oilers

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 8

Many Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.01

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

73%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

No Contest

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

34%

Routine

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.19

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.99

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.65

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 · Within Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.38 · Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.

Probability calibration

0.43

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.14

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.068

Well Within Noise

00.1900.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	68.90%	31.36%
Buffalo Bills	46.25%	29.09%
Boston Patriots	45.30%	25.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.81%	6.65%
Oakland Raiders	14.93%	5.13%
Houston Oilers	4.71%	1.41%
New York Jets	3.74%	1.08%
Denver Broncos	0.37%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Houston Oilers	New York Jets
Boston Patriots	89.1%0.16%	56.5%7.18%	65.3%6.85%	53.2%31.11%
Buffalo Bills	89.1%0.17%	64.2%7.32%	71.6%6.83%	60.6%31.92%
Houston Oilers	66.7%0.01%	32.7%0.73%	35.9%0.68%	27.9%3.28%
New York Jets	47.6%0.02%	28.7%0.57%	34.3%0.56%	27.6%2.59%
Denver Broncos					10.9%0.16%	10.9%0.17%	33.3%0.01%	52.4%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs					43.5%7.18%	35.8%7.32%	67.3%0.73%	71.3%0.57%
Oakland Raiders					34.7%6.85%	28.4%6.83%	64.1%0.68%	65.7%0.56%
San Diego Chargers					46.8%31.11%	39.4%31.92%	72.1%3.28%	72.4%2.59%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills	60.83%	Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers	39.17%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills	60.8%100.00%
San Diego Chargers		39.2%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Buffalo Bills 60.83% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.83%

San Diego Chargers 39.17% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.17%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-09-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-14	1549.46	1571.04	33.10%	61.65%	+13.04	1-0
1964-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-28	1562.50	1623.81	28.38%	66.72%	+18.15	2-0
1964-09-27	New York Jets	W 26-10	1580.65	1418.03	77.78%	18.45%	+9.17	3-0
1964-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 39-10	1589.82	1330.68	70.70%	24.75%	+16.67	4-0
1964-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 17-26	1606.49	1574.90	62.96%	31.87%	-23.04	4-1
1964-10-16	Oakland Raiders	T 43-43	1583.45	1473.61	72.38%	23.24%	-1.47	4-1
1964-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-7	1581.98	1501.78	69.00%	26.29%	+13.57	5-1
1964-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 14-35	1595.55	1438.98	57.70%	36.85%	-32.38	5-2
1964-11-06	Houston Oilers	W 25-24	1563.17	1430.07	74.86%	21.03%	+2.62	6-2
1964-11-15	@ Buffalo Bills	W 36-28	1565.79	1648.62	26.01%	69.31%	+23.80	7-2
1964-11-20	Denver Broncos	W 12-7	1589.59	1311.96	86.82%	10.70%	+2.92	8-2
1964-11-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-17	1592.51	1397.24	62.88%	31.94%	+16.49	9-2
1964-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1609.00	1495.94	51.60%	42.77%	+14.07	10-2
1964-12-20	Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1623.07	1633.66	57.31%	37.22%	-22.20	10-3
1964-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-17	1496.77	1517.06	55.97%	38.52%	+19.82	1-0
1964-09-20	Denver Broncos	W 30-13	1516.59	1363.71	76.84%	19.27%	+9.88	2-0
1964-09-26	San Diego Chargers	W 30-3	1526.47	1605.66	47.59%	46.74%	+30.06	3-0
1964-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1556.53	1508.25	65.10%	29.88%	+6.48	4-0
1964-10-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 48-17	1563.01	1486.86	46.30%	48.03%	+33.05	5-0
1964-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-22	1596.06	1523.39	45.80%	48.53%	+21.61	6-0
1964-10-24	New York Jets	W 34-24	1617.67	1445.93	78.63%	17.70%	+6.95	7-0
1964-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1624.62	1437.72	80.00%	16.52%	+7.65	8-0
1964-11-08	@ New York Jets	W 20-7	1632.27	1471.36	58.30%	36.28%	+16.35	9-0
1964-11-15	Boston Patriots	L 28-36	1648.62	1565.79	69.31%	26.01%	-23.80	9-1
1964-11-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-24	1624.82	1651.38	32.48%	62.31%	+13.17	10-1
1964-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1637.99	1478.28	58.13%	36.44%	-12.33	10-2
1964-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-19	1625.66	1309.76	76.72%	19.38%	+8.00	11-2
1964-12-20	@ Boston Patriots	W 24-14	1633.66	1623.07	37.22%	57.31%	+22.20	12-2
1964-09-12	@ New York Jets	L 6-30	1384.70	1397.03	34.26%	60.42%	-20.99	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-30	1363.71	1516.59	19.27%	76.84%	-9.89	0-2
1964-09-27	Houston Oilers	L 17-38	1353.82	1482.95	40.54%	53.88%	-23.14	0-3
1964-10-04	Boston Patriots	L 10-39	1330.68	1589.82	24.75%	70.70%	-16.67	0-4
1964-10-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-27	1314.01	1543.40	27.95%	67.19%	+20.01	1-4
1964-10-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-42	1334.02	1597.94	11.45%	85.93%	-7.41	1-5
1964-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-40	1326.61	1475.07	19.65%	76.41%	-14.05	1-6
1964-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 39-49	1312.56	1488.21	17.39%	78.99%	-6.82	1-7
1964-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-31	1305.74	1623.44	19.23%	76.90%	-7.93	1-8
1964-11-15	New York Jets	W 20-16	1297.81	1455.01	36.76%	57.79%	+14.15	2-8
1964-11-20	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-12	1311.96	1589.59	10.70%	86.82%	-2.92	2-9
1964-11-29	Oakland Raiders	T 20-20	1309.04	1479.00	35.11%	59.53%	+0.72	2-9
1964-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 19-30	1309.76	1625.66	19.38%	76.72%	-8.00	2-10
1964-12-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 15-34	1301.76	1402.42	24.16%	71.36%	-13.16	2-11
1964-09-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-27	1466.03	1617.91	19.36%	76.75%	-5.90	0-1
1964-09-19	Oakland Raiders	W 42-28	1460.13	1558.00	44.91%	49.42%	+22.82	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-17	1482.95	1353.82	53.88%	40.54%	+23.14	2-1
1964-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1506.09	1524.17	33.53%	61.19%	-19.23	2-2
1964-10-11	Buffalo Bills	L 17-48	1486.86	1563.01	48.03%	46.30%	-33.05	2-3
1964-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 21-24	1453.81	1437.72	37.96%	56.55%	-8.21	2-4
1964-10-25	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1445.60	1605.35	36.43%	58.14%	-7.88	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-24	1437.72	1624.62	16.52%	80.00%	-7.65	2-6
1964-11-06	@ Boston Patriots	L 24-25	1430.07	1563.17	21.03%	74.86%	-2.63	2-7
1964-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1427.44	1453.91	32.49%	62.30%	-12.86	2-8
1964-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-28	1414.58	1500.04	46.69%	47.64%	-17.34	2-9
1964-11-29	Boston Patriots	L 17-34	1397.24	1592.51	31.94%	62.88%	-16.49	2-10
1964-12-13	New York Jets	W 33-17	1380.75	1438.04	50.73%	43.62%	+21.67	3-10
1964-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 34-15	1402.42	1301.76	71.36%	24.16%	+13.17	4-10
1964-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-34	1517.06	1496.77	38.52%	55.97%	-19.82	0-1
1964-09-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-9	1497.24	1535.18	31.10%	63.79%	+26.93	1-1
1964-10-04	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1524.17	1506.09	61.19%	33.53%	+19.23	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-33	1543.40	1314.01	67.19%	27.95%	-20.01	2-2
1964-10-18	Buffalo Bills	L 22-35	1523.39	1596.06	48.53%	45.80%	-21.61	2-3
1964-10-23	@ Boston Patriots	L 7-24	1501.78	1581.98	26.29%	69.00%	-13.57	2-4
1964-11-01	Denver Broncos	W 49-39	1488.21	1312.56	78.99%	17.39%	+6.82	3-4
1964-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 42-7	1495.03	1478.92	60.93%	33.78%	+25.01	4-4
1964-11-15	San Diego Chargers	L 14-28	1520.04	1631.37	43.01%	51.35%	-20.00	4-5
1964-11-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-19	1500.04	1414.58	47.64%	46.69%	+17.34	5-5
1964-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1517.38	1428.63	48.11%	46.22%	-21.44	5-6
1964-12-06	Boston Patriots	L 24-31	1495.94	1609.00	42.77%	51.60%	-14.07	5-7
1964-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 49-6	1481.87	1650.24	17.98%	78.32%	+61.89	6-7
1964-12-20	New York Jets	W 24-7	1543.76	1416.37	74.26%	21.55%	+11.09	7-7
1964-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 30-6	1397.03	1384.70	60.42%	34.26%	+21.00	1-0
1964-09-27	@ Boston Patriots	L 10-26	1418.03	1580.65	18.45%	77.78%	-9.17	1-1
1964-10-03	San Diego Chargers	T 17-17	1408.86	1575.60	35.52%	59.09%	+0.70	1-1
1964-10-10	Oakland Raiders	W 35-13	1409.56	1501.77	45.72%	48.61%	+28.16	2-1
1964-10-17	Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1437.72	1453.81	56.55%	37.96%	+8.21	3-1
1964-10-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-34	1445.93	1617.67	17.70%	78.63%	-6.95	3-2
1964-10-31	Boston Patriots	W 35-14	1438.98	1595.55	36.85%	57.70%	+32.38	4-2
1964-11-08	Buffalo Bills	L 7-20	1471.36	1632.27	36.28%	58.30%	-16.35	4-3
1964-11-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1455.01	1297.81	57.79%	36.76%	-14.15	4-4
1964-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-35	1440.86	1466.77	32.56%	62.22%	-12.23	4-5
1964-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-14	1428.63	1517.38	46.22%	48.11%	+21.44	5-5
1964-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-38	1450.07	1638.21	16.43%	80.11%	-12.03	5-6
1964-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-33	1438.04	1380.75	43.62%	50.73%	-21.67	5-7
1964-12-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-24	1416.37	1543.76	21.55%	74.26%	-11.09	5-8
1964-09-13	Boston Patriots	L 14-17	1571.04	1549.46	61.65%	33.10%	-13.04	0-1
1964-09-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-42	1558.00	1460.13	49.42%	44.91%	-22.82	0-2
1964-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-21	1535.18	1497.24	63.79%	31.10%	-26.93	0-3
1964-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1508.25	1556.53	29.88%	65.10%	-6.48	0-4
1964-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 13-35	1501.77	1409.56	48.61%	45.72%	-28.16	0-5
1964-10-16	@ Boston Patriots	T 43-43	1473.61	1583.45	23.24%	72.38%	+1.46	0-5
1964-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 40-7	1475.07	1326.61	76.41%	19.65%	+14.05	1-5
1964-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-31	1489.12	1613.24	21.86%	73.92%	-10.20	1-6
1964-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-42	1478.92	1495.03	33.78%	60.93%	-25.01	1-7
1964-11-15	Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1453.91	1427.44	62.30%	32.49%	+12.86	2-7
1964-11-22	New York Jets	W 35-26	1466.77	1440.86	62.22%	32.56%	+12.23	3-7
1964-11-29	@ Denver Broncos	T 20-20	1479.00	1309.04	59.53%	35.11%	-0.72	3-7
1964-12-06	Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1478.28	1637.99	36.44%	58.13%	+12.33	4-7
1964-12-20	San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1490.61	1588.35	44.93%	49.40%	+6.09	5-7
1964-09-12	Houston Oilers	W 27-21	1617.91	1466.03	76.75%	19.36%	+5.90	1-0
1964-09-20	Boston Patriots	L 28-33	1623.81	1562.50	66.72%	28.38%	-18.15	1-1
1964-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-30	1605.66	1526.47	46.74%	47.59%	-30.06	1-2
1964-10-03	@ New York Jets	T 17-17	1575.60	1408.86	59.09%	35.52%	-0.70	1-2
1964-10-09	@ Boston Patriots	W 26-17	1574.90	1606.49	31.87%	62.96%	+23.04	2-2
1964-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 42-14	1597.94	1334.02	85.93%	11.45%	+7.41	3-2
1964-10-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-17	1605.35	1445.60	58.14%	36.43%	+7.89	4-2
1964-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1613.24	1489.12	73.92%	21.86%	+10.20	5-2
1964-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-20	1623.44	1305.74	76.90%	19.23%	+7.93	6-2
1964-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-14	1631.37	1520.04	51.35%	43.01%	+20.01	7-2
1964-11-26	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1651.38	1624.82	62.31%	32.48%	-13.17	7-3
1964-12-06	New York Jets	W 38-3	1638.21	1450.07	80.11%	16.43%	+12.03	8-3
1964-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-49	1650.24	1481.87	78.32%	17.98%	-61.89	8-4
1964-12-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1588.35	1490.61	49.40%	44.93%	-6.10	8-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-12-26	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1655.86	1582.25	71.03%	28.97%	+12.19	1-0
1964-12-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-20	1582.25	1655.86	28.97%	71.03%	-12.19	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-12-13	17.98%	Kansas City Chiefs	1481.87	49	@ San Diego Chargers	1650.24	6
2	1964-11-15	26.01%	Boston Patriots	1565.79	36	@ Buffalo Bills	1648.62	28
3	1964-10-11	27.95%	@ Denver Broncos	1314.01	33	Kansas City Chiefs	1543.40	27
4	1964-09-20	28.38%	Boston Patriots	1562.50	33	@ San Diego Chargers	1623.81	28
5	1964-09-27	31.10%	Kansas City Chiefs	1497.24	21	@ Oakland Raiders	1535.18	9
6	1964-10-09	31.87%	San Diego Chargers	1574.90	26	@ Boston Patriots	1606.49	17
7	1964-11-26	32.48%	Buffalo Bills	1624.82	27	@ San Diego Chargers	1651.38	24
8	1964-09-13	33.10%	Boston Patriots	1549.46	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1571.04	14
9	1964-12-06	36.44%	@ Oakland Raiders	1478.28	16	Buffalo Bills	1637.99	13
10	1964-11-15	36.76%	@ Denver Broncos	1297.81	20	New York Jets	1455.01	16
11	1964-10-31	36.85%	@ New York Jets	1438.98	35	Boston Patriots	1595.55	14
12	1964-12-20	37.22%	Buffalo Bills	1633.66	24	@ Boston Patriots	1623.07	14
13	1964-09-19	44.91%	@ Houston Oilers	1460.13	42	Oakland Raiders	1558.00	28
14	1964-12-20	44.93%	@ Oakland Raiders	1490.61	21	San Diego Chargers	1588.35	20
15	1964-10-10	45.72%	@ New York Jets	1409.56	35	Oakland Raiders	1501.77	13
16	1964-10-18	45.80%	Buffalo Bills	1596.06	35	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1523.39	22
17	1964-11-29	46.22%	@ New York Jets	1428.63	27	Kansas City Chiefs	1517.38	14
18	1964-10-11	46.30%	Buffalo Bills	1563.01	48	@ Houston Oilers	1486.86	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1964-12-13	61.89	Kansas City Chiefs	49	1481.87	17.98%	@ San Diego Chargers	6	1650.24	78.32%
2	1964-10-11	33.05	Buffalo Bills	48	1563.01	46.30%	@ Houston Oilers	17	1486.86	48.03%
3	1964-10-31	32.38	@ New York Jets	35	1438.98	36.85%	Boston Patriots	14	1595.55	57.70%
4	1964-09-26	30.06	@ Buffalo Bills	30	1526.47	47.59%	San Diego Chargers	3	1605.66	46.74%
5	1964-10-10	28.16	@ New York Jets	35	1409.56	45.72%	Oakland Raiders	13	1501.77	48.61%
6	1964-09-27	26.93	Kansas City Chiefs	21	1497.24	31.10%	@ Oakland Raiders	9	1535.18	63.79%
7	1964-11-08	25.01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	42	1495.03	60.93%	Oakland Raiders	7	1478.92	33.78%
8	1964-11-15	23.80	Boston Patriots	36	1565.79	26.01%	@ Buffalo Bills	28	1648.62	69.31%
9	1964-09-27	23.14	Houston Oilers	38	1482.95	53.88%	@ Denver Broncos	17	1353.82	40.54%
10	1964-10-09	23.04	San Diego Chargers	26	1574.90	31.87%	@ Boston Patriots	17	1606.49	62.96%
11	1964-09-19	22.82	@ Houston Oilers	42	1460.13	44.91%	Oakland Raiders	28	1558.00	49.42%
12	1964-12-20	22.20	Buffalo Bills	24	1633.66	37.22%	@ Boston Patriots	14	1623.07	57.31%
13	1964-12-13	21.67	@ Houston Oilers	33	1380.75	50.73%	New York Jets	17	1438.04	43.62%
14	1964-10-18	21.61	Buffalo Bills	35	1596.06	45.80%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	22	1523.39	48.53%
15	1964-11-29	21.44	@ New York Jets	27	1428.63	46.22%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1517.38	48.11%
16	1964-09-12	21.00	@ New York Jets	30	1397.03	60.42%	Denver Broncos	6	1384.70	34.26%
17	1964-11-15	20.01	San Diego Chargers	28	1631.37	51.35%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	14	1520.04	43.01%
18	1964-10-11	20.01	@ Denver Broncos	33	1314.01	27.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	27	1543.40	67.19%
19	1964-09-13	19.82	@ Buffalo Bills	34	1496.77	55.97%	Kansas City Chiefs	17	1517.06	38.52%
20	1964-10-04	19.23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	28	1524.17	61.19%	Houston Oilers	7	1506.09	33.53%
21	1964-09-20	18.15	Boston Patriots	33	1562.50	28.38%	@ San Diego Chargers	28	1623.81	66.72%
22	1964-11-22	17.34	Kansas City Chiefs	28	1500.04	47.64%	@ Houston Oilers	19	1414.58	46.69%
23	1964-10-04	16.67	Boston Patriots	39	1589.82	70.70%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1330.68	24.75%
24	1964-11-29	16.49	Boston Patriots	34	1592.51	62.88%	@ Houston Oilers	17	1397.24	31.94%
25	1964-11-08	16.35	Buffalo Bills	20	1632.27	58.30%	@ New York Jets	7	1471.36	36.28%