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1948 AAFC Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills (1st)

3rd Title

Last Title: 1947

Runner-Up

Baltimore Colts (1st)

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns

5.10 wins above expected

14 wins · 8.90 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Rockets

4.60 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.60 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills (1st) Division 7 7 0 .500 — 360 358 +2 7.03 -0.03
2 Baltimore Colts (1st) Playoffs 7 7 0 .500 — 333 327 +6 6.14 +0.86
3 New York Yankees 6 8 0 .429 1 265 301 -36 7.20 -1.20
4 Brooklyn Dodgers 2 12 0 .143 5 253 387 -134 5.68 -3.68
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Cleveland Browns 14 0 0 1.000 — 389 190 +199 8.90 +5.10
2 San Francisco 49ers 12 2 0 .857 2 495 248 +247 8.36 +3.64
3 Los Angeles Dons 7 7 0 .500 7 258 305 -47 7.08 -0.08
4 Chicago Rockets 1 13 0 .071 13 202 439 -237 5.60 -4.60

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AAFC Championship Game

Buffalo Bills (1st) 28
Baltimore Colts (1st) 17

Dec 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cleveland Browns West 1629 14 8.90 +5.10 100.00% 1 6 8 9 10 12 14
San Francisco 49ers West 1598 12 8.36 +3.64 99.26% 2 5 7 8 9 11 14
New York Yankees East 1504 6 7.20 -1.20 37.56% 0 4 6 7 8 10 14
Buffalo Bills (1st) East 1501 7 7.03 -0.03 61.37% 1 4 6 7 8 10 13
Los Angeles Dons West 1492 7 7.08 -0.08 60.70% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14
Baltimore Colts (1st) East 1475 7 6.14 +0.86 78.66% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Brooklyn Dodgers East 1413 2 5.68 -3.68 3.78% 0 3 4 6 7 9 12
Chicago Rockets West 1387 1 5.60 -4.60 0.82% 0 3 4 5 7 9 12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team (1st) Dodgers (1st) Yankees
Baltimore Colts (1st) —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
New York Yankees
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Rockets Browns Dons 49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
New York Yankees
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Rockets Browns Dons 49ers
Chicago Rockets —
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team (1st) Dodgers (1st) Yankees
Chicago Rockets
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Cleveland Browns 14 8.90 +5.10
2 San Francisco 49ers 12 8.36 +3.64
3 Baltimore Colts (1st) 7 6.14 +0.86
4 Buffalo Bills (1st) 7 7.03 -0.03
5 Los Angeles Dons 7 7.08 -0.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Chicago Rockets 1 5.60 -4.60
2 Brooklyn Dodgers 2 5.68 -3.68
3 New York Yankees 6 7.20 -1.20
4 Los Angeles Dons 7 7.08 -0.08
5 Buffalo Bills (1st) 7 7.03 -0.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cleveland Browns 14 Sep 3 – Dec 5 1 in 711
2 San Francisco 49ers 10 Aug 29 – Nov 7 1 in 164
3 Buffalo Bills (1st) 3 Oct 24 – Nov 7 1 in 7
4 New York Yankees 3 Oct 31 – Nov 14 1 in 6
5 Baltimore Colts (1st) 2 Sep 16 – Sep 26 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chicago Rockets 11 Sep 17 – Dec 4 1 in 250
2 Brooklyn Dodgers 6 Aug 27 – Oct 10 1 in 25
3 New York Yankees 4 Sep 5 – Sep 29 1 in 25
4 Los Angeles Dons 2 Oct 15 – Oct 24 1 in 5
5 Baltimore Colts (1st) 3 Oct 24 – Nov 7 1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AAFC view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
New York Yankees36.89%28.18%20.98%13.95%
Buffalo Bills (1st)33.06%28.53%22.44%15.97%
Baltimore Colts (1st)17.75%24.33%28.44%29.48%
Brooklyn Dodgers12.30%18.96%28.14%40.60%
Team1234
Cleveland Browns47.83%30.00%16.47%5.70%
San Francisco 49ers34.15%35.37%21.83%8.65%
Los Angeles Dons14.09%24.19%37.17%24.55%
Chicago Rockets3.93%10.44%24.53%61.10%
Team12345678
Cleveland Browns37.11%22.21%15.21%9.73%7.33%4.64%2.65%1.12%
San Francisco 49ers25.23%22.68%16.47%12.58%9.64%6.68%4.59%2.13%
New York Yankees10.37%13.63%15.74%14.55%14.42%12.88%10.55%7.86%
Los Angeles Dons9.85%12.60%14.60%15.29%14.65%13.46%10.84%8.71%
Buffalo Bills (1st)8.98%12.28%14.88%15.07%14.59%13.60%11.74%8.86%
Baltimore Colts (1st)3.73%7.10%9.71%12.77%14.25%16.12%18.15%18.17%
Brooklyn Dodgers2.39%4.96%6.75%10.24%12.78%16.49%20.61%25.78%
Chicago Rockets2.34%4.54%6.64%9.77%12.34%16.13%20.87%27.37%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
New York Yankees36.89%63.11%
Buffalo Bills (1st)33.06%66.94%
Baltimore Colts (1st)17.75%82.25%
Brooklyn Dodgers12.30%87.70%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns47.83%52.17%
San Francisco 49ers34.15%65.85%
Los Angeles Dons14.09%85.91%
Chicago Rockets3.93%96.07%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns 47.83% 32.85%
San Francisco 49ers 34.15% 22.40%
New York Yankees 36.89% 13.73%
Buffalo Bills (1st) 33.06% 12.95%
Los Angeles Dons 14.09% 7.33%
Baltimore Colts (1st) 17.75% 6.02%
Brooklyn Dodgers 12.30% 3.43%
Chicago Rockets 3.93% 1.29%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore Colts (1st)Brooklyn DodgersBuffalo Bills (1st)Chicago RocketsCleveland BrownsLos Angeles DonsNew York YankeesSan Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)0.47%2.63%1.18%1.74%
Brooklyn Dodgers0.30%1.24%0.63%1.26%
Buffalo Bills (1st)0.96%5.56%2.31%4.12%
Chicago Rockets0.36%0.18%0.37%0.38%
Cleveland Browns6.11%4.60%10.57%11.57%
Los Angeles Dons1.32%1.07%2.33%2.61%
New York Yankees0.91%5.55%2.64%4.63%
San Francisco 49ers3.94%3.02%6.84%8.60%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills (1st) 32.38% Won Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Buffalo Bills (1st)Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills (1st)32.38%
Cleveland Browns67.62%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Cleveland Browns 67.62% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Buffalo Bills (1st)
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
67.62%
Buffalo Bills (1st) 32.38% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Cleveland Browns
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
32.38%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1948-09-05 New York Yankees W 45-28 1454.74 1534.43 38.13% 60.61% +10.46 1-0
1948-09-10 @ Chicago Rockets L 14-21 1465.20 1454.24 50.94% 47.79% -5.65 1-1
1948-09-16 @ New York Yankees W 27-14 1459.55 1511.20 42.00% 56.73% +8.57 2-1
1948-09-26 Brooklyn Dodgers W 35-20 1468.12 1447.48 52.33% 46.40% +7.54 3-1
1948-10-05 Cleveland Browns L 10-14 1475.66 1579.23 34.94% 63.79% -2.94 3-2
1948-10-10 San Francisco 49ers L 14-56 1472.72 1569.29 35.86% 62.87% -9.78 3-3
1948-10-15 @ Los Angeles Dons W 29-14 1462.94 1517.81 41.55% 57.19% +9.27 4-3
1948-10-24 @ San Francisco 49ers L 10-21 1472.21 1585.04 33.74% 65.00% -4.71 4-4
1948-10-31 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) L 17-35 1467.50 1492.42 45.79% 52.95% -8.15 4-5
1948-11-07 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-28 1459.35 1600.73 30.17% 68.57% -5.83 4-6
1948-11-14 Chicago Rockets W 38-24 1453.52 1403.04 56.57% 42.17% +6.63 5-6
1948-11-21 Los Angeles Dons L 14-17 1460.15 1500.95 43.53% 55.21% -3.17 5-7
1948-11-28 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 38-20 1456.98 1423.97 54.10% 44.64% +7.95 6-7
1948-12-05 Buffalo Bills (1st) W 35-15 1464.93 1511.37 42.74% 56.00% +10.49 7-7
1948-08-27 New York Yankees L 3-21 1466.92 1527.16 40.80% 57.93% -7.27 0-1
1948-09-05 @ San Francisco 49ers L 20-36 1459.65 1530.09 39.39% 59.35% -6.63 0-2
1948-09-10 @ Los Angeles Dons L 7-17 1453.02 1506.74 41.71% 57.02% -5.54 0-3
1948-09-26 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) L 20-35 1447.48 1468.12 46.40% 52.33% -7.54 0-4
1948-10-03 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) L 21-31 1439.94 1486.74 42.68% 56.05% -5.67 0-5
1948-10-10 @ Cleveland Browns L 17-30 1434.27 1582.17 29.39% 69.35% -4.47 0-6
1948-10-15 Chicago Rockets W 21-7 1429.80 1435.22 48.59% 50.15% +7.87 1-6
1948-10-24 @ Chicago Rockets W 35-14 1437.67 1427.35 50.85% 47.89% +9.20 2-6
1948-10-31 Los Angeles Dons L 0-17 1446.87 1500.25 41.76% 56.98% -7.23 2-7
1948-11-07 Buffalo Bills (1st) L 21-26 1439.64 1500.58 40.71% 58.03% -3.82 2-8
1948-11-14 @ New York Yankees L 7-21 1435.82 1506.42 39.37% 59.37% -6.20 2-9
1948-11-21 San Francisco 49ers L 40-63 1429.62 1589.62 27.96% 70.78% -5.65 2-10
1948-11-28 Baltimore Colts (1st) L 20-38 1423.97 1456.98 44.64% 54.10% -7.95 2-11
1948-12-05 Cleveland Browns L 21-31 1416.02 1626.39 22.51% 76.23% -3.01 2-12
1948-08-29 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-35 1498.87 1521.22 46.16% 52.58% -8.88 0-1
1948-09-06 Chicago Rockets W 42-7 1489.99 1465.63 52.87% 45.87% +11.39 1-1
1948-09-12 Cleveland Browns L 13-42 1501.38 1558.72 41.21% 57.53% -9.32 1-2
1948-09-26 San Francisco 49ers L 28-38 1492.06 1558.16 39.99% 58.75% -5.32 1-3
1948-10-03 Brooklyn Dodgers W 31-21 1486.74 1439.94 56.05% 42.68% +5.67 2-3
1948-10-10 New York Yankees L 13-14 1492.41 1496.11 48.84% 49.90% -2.05 2-4
1948-10-17 @ Cleveland Browns L 14-31 1490.36 1586.64 35.90% 62.83% -6.22 2-5
1948-10-24 @ Los Angeles Dons W 35-21 1484.14 1508.54 45.87% 52.87% +8.28 3-5
1948-10-31 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 35-17 1492.42 1467.50 52.95% 45.79% +8.16 4-5
1948-11-07 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 26-21 1500.58 1439.64 58.03% 40.71% +3.82 5-5
1948-11-14 Los Angeles Dons L 20-27 1504.40 1495.33 50.67% 48.06% -5.62 5-6
1948-11-25 @ Chicago Rockets W 39-35 1498.78 1396.41 63.64% 35.10% +2.96 6-6
1948-11-28 @ New York Yankees W 35-14 1501.74 1507.22 48.58% 50.16% +9.63 7-6
1948-12-05 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) L 15-35 1511.37 1464.93 56.00% 42.74% -10.48 7-7
1948-08-27 Los Angeles Dons L 0-7 1470.55 1505.87 44.31% 54.43% -4.92 0-1
1948-09-06 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) L 7-42 1465.63 1489.99 45.87% 52.87% -11.39 0-2
1948-09-10 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 21-14 1454.24 1465.20 47.79% 50.94% +5.65 1-2
1948-09-17 Cleveland Browns L 7-28 1459.89 1568.04 34.35% 64.39% -6.62 1-3
1948-09-26 @ Cleveland Browns L 10-21 1453.27 1574.67 32.65% 66.09% -4.56 1-4
1948-10-01 San Francisco 49ers L 14-31 1448.71 1563.47 33.49% 65.25% -5.82 1-5
1948-10-08 @ Los Angeles Dons L 28-49 1442.89 1510.14 39.83% 58.90% -7.67 1-6
1948-10-15 @ Brooklyn Dodgers L 7-21 1435.22 1429.80 50.15% 48.59% -7.87 1-7
1948-10-24 Brooklyn Dodgers L 14-35 1427.35 1437.67 47.89% 50.85% -9.20 1-8
1948-10-31 @ New York Yankees L 7-42 1418.15 1484.32 39.98% 58.76% -9.94 1-9
1948-11-07 @ San Francisco 49ers L 21-44 1408.21 1589.75 25.53% 73.21% -5.17 1-10
1948-11-14 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) L 24-38 1403.04 1453.52 42.17% 56.57% -6.63 1-11
1948-11-25 Buffalo Bills (1st) L 35-39 1396.41 1498.78 35.10% 63.64% -2.95 1-12
1948-12-04 New York Yankees L 7-28 1393.46 1497.59 34.87% 63.87% -6.73 1-13
1948-09-03 Los Angeles Dons W 19-14 1554.67 1510.79 55.64% 43.10% +4.05 1-0
1948-09-12 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) W 42-13 1558.72 1501.38 57.53% 41.21% +9.32 2-0
1948-09-17 @ Chicago Rockets W 28-7 1568.04 1459.89 64.39% 34.35% +6.63 3-0
1948-09-26 Chicago Rockets W 21-10 1574.67 1453.27 66.09% 32.65% +4.56 4-0
1948-10-05 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 14-10 1579.23 1475.66 63.79% 34.94% +2.94 5-0
1948-10-10 Brooklyn Dodgers W 30-17 1582.17 1434.27 69.35% 29.39% +4.47 6-0
1948-10-17 Buffalo Bills (1st) W 31-14 1586.64 1490.36 62.83% 35.90% +6.22 7-0
1948-10-24 New York Yankees W 35-7 1592.86 1492.19 63.42% 35.32% +7.87 8-0
1948-11-07 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 28-7 1600.73 1459.35 68.57% 30.17% +5.82 9-0
1948-11-14 San Francisco 49ers W 14-7 1606.55 1594.92 51.04% 47.70% +5.30 10-0
1948-11-21 @ New York Yankees W 34-21 1611.85 1512.61 63.23% 35.51% +5.39 11-0
1948-11-25 @ Los Angeles Dons W 31-14 1617.24 1504.12 65.03% 33.70% +5.85 12-0
1948-11-28 @ San Francisco 49ers W 31-28 1623.09 1595.28 53.36% 45.38% +3.30 13-0
1948-12-05 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 31-21 1626.39 1416.02 76.23% 22.51% +3.00 14-0
1948-08-27 @ Chicago Rockets W 7-0 1505.87 1470.55 54.43% 44.31% +4.92 1-0
1948-09-03 @ Cleveland Browns L 14-19 1510.79 1554.67 43.10% 55.64% -4.05 1-1
1948-09-10 Brooklyn Dodgers W 17-7 1506.74 1453.02 57.02% 41.71% +5.55 2-1
1948-09-19 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-36 1512.29 1549.49 44.04% 54.69% -8.68 2-2
1948-09-29 New York Yankees W 20-10 1503.61 1502.64 49.51% 49.23% +6.53 3-2
1948-10-08 Chicago Rockets W 49-28 1510.14 1442.89 58.90% 39.83% +7.67 4-2
1948-10-15 Baltimore Colts (1st) L 14-29 1517.81 1462.94 57.19% 41.55% -9.27 4-3
1948-10-24 Buffalo Bills (1st) L 21-35 1508.54 1484.14 52.87% 45.87% -8.29 4-4
1948-10-31 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 17-0 1500.25 1446.87 56.98% 41.76% +7.23 5-4
1948-11-07 @ New York Yankees L 6-38 1507.48 1494.26 51.27% 47.47% -12.15 5-5
1948-11-14 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) W 27-20 1495.33 1504.40 48.06% 50.67% +5.62 6-5
1948-11-21 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 17-14 1500.95 1460.15 55.21% 43.53% +3.17 7-5
1948-11-25 Cleveland Browns L 14-31 1504.12 1617.24 33.70% 65.03% -5.85 7-6
1948-12-05 San Francisco 49ers L 21-38 1498.27 1591.98 36.24% 62.49% -6.29 7-7
1948-08-27 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 21-3 1527.16 1466.92 57.93% 40.80% +7.27 1-0
1948-09-05 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) L 28-45 1534.43 1454.74 60.61% 38.13% -10.46 1-1
1948-09-12 @ San Francisco 49ers L 0-41 1523.97 1536.72 47.54% 51.20% -12.77 1-2
1948-09-16 Baltimore Colts (1st) L 14-27 1511.20 1459.55 56.73% 42.00% -8.56 1-3
1948-09-29 @ Los Angeles Dons L 10-20 1502.64 1503.61 49.23% 49.51% -6.53 1-4
1948-10-10 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) W 14-13 1496.11 1492.41 49.90% 48.84% +2.05 2-4
1948-10-17 San Francisco 49ers L 7-21 1498.16 1579.07 37.96% 60.77% -5.97 2-5
1948-10-24 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-35 1492.19 1592.86 35.32% 63.42% -7.87 2-6
1948-10-31 Chicago Rockets W 42-7 1484.32 1418.15 58.76% 39.98% +9.94 3-6
1948-11-07 Los Angeles Dons W 38-6 1494.26 1507.48 47.47% 51.27% +12.16 4-6
1948-11-14 Brooklyn Dodgers W 21-7 1506.42 1435.82 59.37% 39.37% +6.19 5-6
1948-11-21 Cleveland Browns L 21-34 1512.61 1611.85 35.51% 63.23% -5.39 5-7
1948-11-28 Buffalo Bills (1st) L 14-35 1507.22 1501.74 50.16% 48.58% -9.63 5-8
1948-12-04 @ Chicago Rockets W 28-7 1497.59 1393.46 63.87% 34.87% +6.72 6-8
1948-08-29 Buffalo Bills (1st) W 35-14 1521.22 1498.87 52.58% 46.16% +8.87 1-0
1948-09-05 Brooklyn Dodgers W 36-20 1530.09 1459.65 59.35% 39.39% +6.63 2-0
1948-09-12 New York Yankees W 41-0 1536.72 1523.97 51.20% 47.54% +12.77 3-0
1948-09-19 Los Angeles Dons W 36-14 1549.49 1512.29 54.69% 44.04% +8.67 4-0
1948-09-26 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) W 38-28 1558.16 1492.06 58.75% 39.99% +5.31 5-0
1948-10-01 @ Chicago Rockets W 31-14 1563.47 1448.71 65.25% 33.49% +5.82 6-0
1948-10-10 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 56-14 1569.29 1472.72 62.87% 35.86% +9.78 7-0
1948-10-17 @ New York Yankees W 21-7 1579.07 1498.16 60.77% 37.96% +5.97 8-0
1948-10-24 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 21-10 1585.04 1472.21 65.00% 33.74% +4.71 9-0
1948-11-07 Chicago Rockets W 44-21 1589.75 1408.21 73.21% 25.53% +5.17 10-0
1948-11-14 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-14 1594.92 1606.55 47.70% 51.04% -5.30 10-1
1948-11-21 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 63-40 1589.62 1429.62 70.78% 27.96% +5.66 11-1
1948-11-28 Cleveland Browns L 28-31 1595.28 1623.09 45.38% 53.36% -3.30 11-2
1948-12-05 @ Los Angeles Dons W 38-21 1591.98 1498.27 62.49% 36.24% +6.29 12-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1948-12-12 Buffalo Bills (1st) L 17-28 1475.42 1500.89 46.34% 53.66% -6.36 0-1
1948-12-12 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 28-17 1500.89 1475.42 53.66% 46.34% +6.36 1-0
1948-12-19 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-49 1507.25 1629.39 33.11% 66.89% -8.89 1-1
1948-12-19 Buffalo Bills (1st) W 49-7 1629.39 1507.25 66.89% 33.11% +8.88 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1948-09-05 38.13% @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 1454.74 45 New York Yankees 1534.43 28
2 1948-10-15 41.55% Baltimore Colts (1st) 1462.94 29 @ Los Angeles Dons 1517.81 14
3 1948-09-16 42.00% Baltimore Colts (1st) 1459.55 27 @ New York Yankees 1511.20 14
4 1948-12-05 42.74% @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 1464.93 35 Buffalo Bills (1st) 1511.37 15
5 1948-10-24 45.87% Buffalo Bills (1st) 1484.14 35 @ Los Angeles Dons 1508.54 21
6 1948-11-07 47.47% @ New York Yankees 1494.26 38 Los Angeles Dons 1507.48 6
7 1948-09-10 47.79% @ Chicago Rockets 1454.24 21 Baltimore Colts (1st) 1465.20 14
8 1948-11-14 48.06% Los Angeles Dons 1495.33 27 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) 1504.40 20
9 1948-11-28 48.58% Buffalo Bills (1st) 1501.74 35 @ New York Yankees 1507.22 14
10 1948-10-15 48.59% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 1429.80 21 Chicago Rockets 1435.22 7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1948-09-12 12.77 @ San Francisco 49ers 41 1536.72 51.20% New York Yankees 0 1523.97 47.54%
2 1948-11-07 12.16 @ New York Yankees 38 1494.26 47.47% Los Angeles Dons 6 1507.48 51.27%
3 1948-09-06 11.39 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) 42 1489.99 52.87% Chicago Rockets 7 1465.63 45.87%
4 1948-12-05 10.49 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 35 1464.93 42.74% Buffalo Bills (1st) 15 1511.37 56.00%
5 1948-09-05 10.46 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 45 1454.74 38.13% New York Yankees 28 1534.43 60.61%
6 1948-10-31 9.94 @ New York Yankees 42 1484.32 58.76% Chicago Rockets 7 1418.15 39.98%
7 1948-10-10 9.78 San Francisco 49ers 56 1569.29 62.87% @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 14 1472.72 35.86%
8 1948-11-28 9.63 Buffalo Bills (1st) 35 1501.74 48.58% @ New York Yankees 14 1507.22 50.16%
9 1948-09-12 9.32 Cleveland Browns 42 1558.72 57.53% @ Buffalo Bills (1st) 13 1501.38 41.21%
10 1948-10-15 9.27 Baltimore Colts (1st) 29 1462.94 41.55% @ Los Angeles Dons 14 1517.81 57.19%
11 1948-10-24 9.20 Brooklyn Dodgers 35 1437.67 50.85% @ Chicago Rockets 14 1427.35 47.89%
12 1948-12-19 * 8.89 @ Cleveland Browns 49 1629.39 66.89% Buffalo Bills (1st) 7 1507.25 33.11%
13 1948-08-29 8.88 @ San Francisco 49ers 35 1521.22 52.58% Buffalo Bills (1st) 14 1498.87 46.16%
14 1948-09-19 8.68 @ San Francisco 49ers 36 1549.49 54.69% Los Angeles Dons 14 1512.29 44.04%
15 1948-09-16 8.57 Baltimore Colts (1st) 27 1459.55 42.00% @ New York Yankees 14 1511.20 56.73%
16 1948-10-24 8.29 Buffalo Bills (1st) 35 1484.14 45.87% @ Los Angeles Dons 21 1508.54 52.87%
17 1948-10-31 8.16 @ Buffalo Bills (1st) 35 1492.42 52.95% Baltimore Colts (1st) 17 1467.50 45.79%
18 1948-11-28 7.95 Baltimore Colts (1st) 38 1456.98 54.10% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 20 1423.97 44.64%
19 1948-10-15 7.87 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 21 1429.80 48.59% Chicago Rockets 7 1435.22 50.15%
20 1948-10-24 7.87 @ Cleveland Browns 35 1592.86 63.42% New York Yankees 7 1492.19 35.32%
21 1948-10-08 7.67 @ Los Angeles Dons 49 1510.14 58.90% Chicago Rockets 28 1442.89 39.83%
22 1948-09-26 7.54 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 35 1468.12 52.33% Brooklyn Dodgers 20 1447.48 46.40%
23 1948-08-27 7.27 New York Yankees 21 1527.16 57.93% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 3 1466.92 40.80%
24 1948-10-31 7.23 Los Angeles Dons 17 1500.25 56.98% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 0 1446.87 41.76%
25 1948-12-04 6.73 New York Yankees 28 1497.59 63.87% @ Chicago Rockets 7 1393.46 34.87%