1949 AAFC Season
42 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Cleveland Browns
4th Title
Last Title: 1948
Runner-Up
San Francisco 49ers
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Cleveland Browns
2.19 wins above expected
9 wins · 7.81 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Baltimore Colts (1st)
3.94 wins below expected
1 wins · 4.94 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees Division | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 | — | 196 | 206 | -10 | 6.15 | +1.85 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills (1st) Playoffs | 5 | 5 | 2 | .500 | 2 | 236 | 256 | -20 | 5.69 | +0.31 |
| 3 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 1 | 11 | 0 | .083 | 7 | 172 | 341 | -169 | 4.94 | -3.94 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns Division | 9 | 1 | 2 | .833 | — | 339 | 171 | +168 | 7.81 | +2.19 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers Playoffs | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 | 1 | 416 | 227 | +189 | 7.45 | +1.55 |
| 3 | Chicago Hornets | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 6 | 179 | 268 | -89 | 4.33 | -0.33 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Dons | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 | 6 | 253 | 322 | -69 | 5.64 | -1.64 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
AAFC Playoffs
Division Round
AAFC Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | West | 1622 | 10 | 7.81 | +2.19 | 99.75% | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1604 | 9 | 7.45 | +1.55 | 92.74% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | |
| New York Yankees | East | 1507 | 8 | 6.15 | +1.85 | 95.02% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 12 | |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | East | 1491 | 6 | 5.69 | +0.31 | 90.51% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | |
| Los Angeles Dons | West | 1471 | 4 | 5.64 | -1.64 | 32.16% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| Chicago Hornets | West | 1405 | 4 | 4.33 | -0.33 | 63.92% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | East | 1401 | 1 | 4.94 | -3.94 | 2.56% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within East
| Team | (1st) | (1st) | Yankees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | — |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bills (1st) |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Yankees |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Hornets | Browns | Dons | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts (1st) |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bills (1st) |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| New York Yankees |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
Within West
| Team | Hornets | Browns | Dons | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Hornets | — |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Browns |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Dons |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | (1st) | (1st) | Yankees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Hornets |
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Browns |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Dons |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 10 | 7.81 | +2.19 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 8 | 6.15 | +1.85 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 7.45 | +1.55 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 6 | 5.69 | +0.31 |
| 5 | Chicago Hornets | 4 | 4.33 | -0.33 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 1 | 4.94 | -3.94 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dons | 4 | 5.64 | -1.64 |
| 3 | Chicago Hornets | 4 | 4.33 | -0.33 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 6 | 5.69 | +0.31 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 7.45 | +1.55 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees | 5 | Sep 22 – Oct 30 | 1 in 28 |
| 2 | Chicago Hornets | 2 | Sep 9 – Sep 16 | 1 in 8 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 4 | Sep 11 – Oct 2 | 1 in 6 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 2 | Oct 23 – Nov 6 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Aug 28 – Sep 18 | 1 in 4 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 6 | Oct 16 – Nov 27 | 1 in 46 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dons | 4 | Sep 9 – Oct 2 | 1 in 15 |
| 3 | Chicago Hornets | 5 | Oct 28 – Nov 24 | 1 in 9 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 3 | Oct 2 – Oct 16 | 1 in 9 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | Oct 23 – Oct 30 | 1 in 5 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AAFC view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 46.69% | 32.41% | 20.90% |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 34.21% | 36.97% | 28.82% |
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | 19.10% | 30.62% | 50.28% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 49.73% | 32.80% | 13.93% | 3.54% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 39.08% | 37.54% | 17.85% | 5.53% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 9.11% | 21.40% | 42.75% | 26.74% |
| Chicago Hornets | 2.08% | 8.26% | 25.47% | 64.19% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 40.51% | 25.06% | 15.24% | 9.74% | 5.18% | 2.98% | 1.29% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 31.73% | 25.04% | 17.41% | 12.10% | 7.10% | 4.32% | 2.30% |
| New York Yankees | 10.19% | 15.93% | 18.71% | 18.17% | 16.19% | 12.45% | 8.36% |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 7.01% | 11.66% | 15.76% | 17.83% | 19.03% | 16.24% | 12.47% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 6.47% | 11.74% | 15.58% | 17.73% | 17.97% | 16.75% | 13.76% |
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | 2.97% | 6.52% | 10.49% | 14.14% | 18.75% | 23.75% | 23.38% |
| Chicago Hornets | 1.12% | 4.05% | 6.81% | 10.29% | 15.78% | 23.51% | 38.44% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 40.51% | 25.06% | 15.24% | 9.74% | 9.45% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 31.73% | 25.04% | 17.41% | 12.10% | 13.72% |
| New York Yankees | 10.19% | 15.93% | 18.71% | 18.17% | 37.00% |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 7.01% | 11.66% | 15.76% | 17.83% | 47.74% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 6.47% | 11.74% | 15.58% | 17.73% | 48.48% |
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | 2.97% | 6.52% | 10.49% | 14.14% | 65.88% |
| Chicago Hornets | 1.12% | 4.05% | 6.81% | 10.29% | 77.73% |
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Championship Game |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 61.70% | 38.77% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 55.93% | 31.65% |
| New York Yankees | 26.71% | 10.66% |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 20.99% | 7.98% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 19.39% | 6.80% |
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | 9.25% | 2.39% |
| Chicago Hornets | 6.03% | 1.75% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts (1st) | Buffalo Bills (1st) | Chicago Hornets | Cleveland Browns | Los Angeles Dons | New York Yankees | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts (1st) | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.81% | 0.19% | 0.34% | 0.62% | |
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 0.46% | 0.29% | 2.53% | 1.08% | 1.16% | 2.46% | |
| Chicago Hornets | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.53% | |
| Cleveland Browns | 2.81% | 5.49% | 1.82% | 5.69% | 7.07% | 15.89% | |
| Los Angeles Dons | 0.45% | 0.92% | 0.24% | 2.14% | 1.19% | 1.86% | |
| New York Yankees | 0.86% | 1.51% | 0.42% | 3.68% | 1.27% | 2.92% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.14% | 4.54% | 1.44% | 13.30% | 4.17% | 6.06% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Championship Game | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 43.49% | Won Championship Game |
| San Francisco 49ers | 34.70% | Eliminated in Championship Game |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Buffalo Bills (1st) | Cleveland Browns | New York Yankees | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills (1st) | 3.49% | 6.08% | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 15.66% | 27.83% | ||
| New York Yankees | 4.92% | 7.32% | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 13.43% | 21.27% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1949-08-28 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-31 | 1472.41 | 1559.11 | 30.79% | 63.34% | -5.59 | 0-1 |
| 1949-09-02 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 17-49 | 1466.82 | 1486.65 | 39.53% | 54.53% | -10.73 | 0-2 |
| 1949-09-11 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 0-21 | 1456.09 | 1576.68 | 26.81% | 67.38% | -5.98 | 0-3 |
| 1949-09-16 | Chicago Hornets | L 7-35 | 1450.11 | 1419.83 | 55.97% | 38.10% | -13.97 | 0-4 |
| 1949-09-25 | Cleveland Browns | L 20-28 | 1436.14 | 1587.68 | 30.98% | 63.15% | -4.24 | 0-5 |
| 1949-10-02 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 35-28 | 1431.90 | 1491.84 | 34.16% | 59.94% | +7.46 | 1-5 |
| 1949-10-16 | New York Yankees | L 21-24 | 1439.36 | 1505.19 | 42.37% | 51.68% | -3.51 | 1-6 |
| 1949-10-23 | Chicago Hornets | L 7-17 | 1435.85 | 1419.61 | 54.04% | 40.02% | -8.07 | 1-7 |
| 1949-10-30 | @ New York Yankees | L 14-21 | 1427.78 | 1520.59 | 30.05% | 64.09% | -3.85 | 1-8 |
| 1949-11-06 | San Francisco 49ers | L 10-28 | 1423.93 | 1583.65 | 29.98% | 64.16% | -6.18 | 1-9 |
| 1949-11-20 | Los Angeles Dons | L 10-21 | 1417.75 | 1465.73 | 44.90% | 49.15% | -7.10 | 1-10 |
| 1949-11-27 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | L 14-38 | 1410.65 | 1481.58 | 41.65% | 52.40% | -9.76 | 1-11 |
| 1949-08-26 | @ Chicago Hornets | L 14-17 | 1491.37 | 1418.42 | 52.69% | 41.37% | -4.31 | 0-1 |
| 1949-09-05 | Cleveland Browns | T 28-28 | 1487.06 | 1576.86 | 39.03% | 55.03% | +0.18 | 0-1 |
| 1949-09-11 | New York Yankees | L 14-17 | 1487.24 | 1495.19 | 50.63% | 43.42% | -4.16 | 0-2 |
| 1949-09-25 | San Francisco 49ers | W 28-17 | 1483.08 | 1579.92 | 38.07% | 56.00% | +8.76 | 1-2 |
| 1949-10-02 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | L 28-35 | 1491.84 | 1431.90 | 59.94% | 34.16% | -7.46 | 1-3 |
| 1949-10-09 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 28-42 | 1484.38 | 1473.61 | 43.82% | 50.23% | -7.83 | 1-4 |
| 1949-10-16 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-51 | 1476.55 | 1589.33 | 27.69% | 66.48% | -8.94 | 1-5 |
| 1949-10-23 | Los Angeles Dons | W 17-14 | 1467.61 | 1469.32 | 51.52% | 42.53% | +3.53 | 2-5 |
| 1949-11-06 | @ New York Yankees | W 17-14 | 1471.14 | 1524.45 | 35.02% | 59.07% | +4.81 | 3-5 |
| 1949-11-13 | @ Cleveland Browns | T 7-7 | 1475.95 | 1609.12 | 25.41% | 68.80% | +0.50 | 3-5 |
| 1949-11-20 | Chicago Hornets | W 10-0 | 1476.45 | 1412.17 | 60.50% | 33.60% | +5.13 | 4-5 |
| 1949-11-27 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 38-14 | 1481.58 | 1410.65 | 52.40% | 41.65% | +9.77 | 5-5 |
| 1949-08-26 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 17-14 | 1418.42 | 1491.37 | 41.37% | 52.69% | +4.31 | 1-0 |
| 1949-09-04 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-42 | 1422.73 | 1564.70 | 24.47% | 69.76% | -7.07 | 1-1 |
| 1949-09-09 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 23-21 | 1415.66 | 1497.38 | 31.40% | 62.72% | +4.17 | 2-1 |
| 1949-09-16 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 35-7 | 1419.83 | 1450.11 | 38.10% | 55.97% | +13.96 | 3-1 |
| 1949-09-30 | San Francisco 49ers | L 24-42 | 1433.79 | 1571.16 | 32.75% | 61.36% | -6.72 | 3-2 |
| 1949-10-07 | New York Yankees | L 24-38 | 1427.07 | 1497.73 | 41.69% | 52.36% | -7.46 | 3-3 |
| 1949-10-23 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 17-7 | 1419.61 | 1435.85 | 40.02% | 54.04% | +8.06 | 4-3 |
| 1949-10-28 | Los Angeles Dons | L 14-24 | 1427.67 | 1465.80 | 46.31% | 47.73% | -6.96 | 4-4 |
| 1949-11-06 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 2-35 | 1420.71 | 1603.37 | 20.42% | 73.89% | -5.76 | 4-5 |
| 1949-11-13 | @ New York Yankees | L 10-14 | 1414.95 | 1519.63 | 28.63% | 65.52% | -2.78 | 4-6 |
| 1949-11-20 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | L 0-10 | 1412.17 | 1476.45 | 33.60% | 60.50% | -5.14 | 4-7 |
| 1949-11-24 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 6-14 | 1407.03 | 1619.19 | 17.82% | 76.57% | -2.47 | 4-8 |
| 1949-09-05 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | T 28-28 | 1576.86 | 1487.06 | 55.03% | 39.03% | -0.18 | 0-0 |
| 1949-09-11 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 21-0 | 1576.68 | 1456.09 | 67.38% | 26.81% | +5.98 | 1-0 |
| 1949-09-18 | New York Yankees | W 14-3 | 1582.66 | 1499.34 | 62.92% | 31.20% | +5.02 | 2-0 |
| 1949-09-25 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 28-20 | 1587.68 | 1436.14 | 63.15% | 30.98% | +4.24 | 3-0 |
| 1949-10-02 | Los Angeles Dons | W 42-7 | 1591.92 | 1481.66 | 66.18% | 27.98% | +8.06 | 4-0 |
| 1949-10-09 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 28-56 | 1599.98 | 1577.88 | 45.43% | 48.62% | -11.45 | 4-1 |
| 1949-10-14 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 61-14 | 1588.53 | 1481.43 | 57.39% | 36.69% | +12.11 | 5-1 |
| 1949-10-30 | San Francisco 49ers | W 30-28 | 1600.64 | 1586.38 | 53.76% | 40.30% | +2.73 | 6-1 |
| 1949-11-06 | Chicago Hornets | W 35-2 | 1603.37 | 1420.71 | 73.89% | 20.42% | +5.75 | 7-1 |
| 1949-11-13 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | T 7-7 | 1609.12 | 1475.95 | 68.80% | 25.41% | -0.49 | 7-1 |
| 1949-11-20 | @ New York Yankees | W 31-0 | 1608.63 | 1522.42 | 54.54% | 39.53% | +10.56 | 8-1 |
| 1949-11-24 | Chicago Hornets | W 14-6 | 1619.19 | 1407.03 | 76.57% | 17.82% | +2.47 | 9-1 |
| 1949-09-02 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 49-17 | 1486.65 | 1466.82 | 54.53% | 39.53% | +10.73 | 1-0 |
| 1949-09-09 | Chicago Hornets | L 21-23 | 1497.38 | 1415.66 | 62.72% | 31.40% | -4.17 | 1-1 |
| 1949-09-18 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-42 | 1493.21 | 1571.77 | 31.79% | 62.33% | -8.15 | 1-2 |
| 1949-09-22 | @ New York Yankees | L 7-10 | 1485.06 | 1494.33 | 40.99% | 53.06% | -3.40 | 1-3 |
| 1949-10-02 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 7-42 | 1481.66 | 1591.92 | 27.98% | 66.18% | -8.05 | 1-4 |
| 1949-10-09 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 42-28 | 1473.61 | 1484.38 | 50.23% | 43.82% | +7.82 | 2-4 |
| 1949-10-14 | Cleveland Browns | L 14-61 | 1481.43 | 1588.53 | 36.69% | 57.39% | -12.11 | 2-5 |
| 1949-10-23 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | L 14-17 | 1469.32 | 1467.61 | 42.53% | 51.52% | -3.52 | 2-6 |
| 1949-10-28 | @ Chicago Hornets | W 24-14 | 1465.80 | 1427.67 | 47.73% | 46.31% | +6.96 | 3-6 |
| 1949-11-13 | San Francisco 49ers | L 24-41 | 1472.76 | 1589.82 | 35.37% | 58.72% | -7.03 | 3-7 |
| 1949-11-20 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 21-10 | 1465.73 | 1417.75 | 49.15% | 44.90% | +7.10 | 4-7 |
| 1949-11-24 | New York Yankees | L 16-17 | 1472.83 | 1511.86 | 46.18% | 47.86% | -2.20 | 4-8 |
| 1949-09-11 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 17-14 | 1495.19 | 1487.24 | 43.42% | 50.63% | +4.15 | 1-0 |
| 1949-09-18 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 3-14 | 1499.34 | 1582.66 | 31.20% | 62.92% | -5.01 | 1-1 |
| 1949-09-22 | Los Angeles Dons | W 10-7 | 1494.33 | 1485.06 | 53.06% | 40.99% | +3.40 | 2-1 |
| 1949-10-07 | @ Chicago Hornets | W 38-24 | 1497.73 | 1427.07 | 52.36% | 41.69% | +7.46 | 3-1 |
| 1949-10-16 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 24-21 | 1505.19 | 1439.36 | 51.68% | 42.37% | +3.51 | 4-1 |
| 1949-10-23 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-3 | 1508.70 | 1598.27 | 39.07% | 55.00% | +11.89 | 5-1 |
| 1949-10-30 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 21-14 | 1520.59 | 1427.78 | 64.09% | 30.05% | +3.86 | 6-1 |
| 1949-11-06 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | L 14-17 | 1524.45 | 1471.14 | 59.07% | 35.02% | -4.82 | 6-2 |
| 1949-11-13 | Chicago Hornets | W 14-10 | 1519.63 | 1414.95 | 65.52% | 28.63% | +2.79 | 7-2 |
| 1949-11-20 | Cleveland Browns | L 0-31 | 1522.42 | 1608.63 | 39.53% | 54.54% | -10.56 | 7-3 |
| 1949-11-24 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 17-16 | 1511.86 | 1472.83 | 47.86% | 46.18% | +2.19 | 8-3 |
| 1949-11-27 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-35 | 1514.05 | 1596.86 | 31.27% | 62.86% | -6.94 | 8-4 |
| 1949-08-28 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 31-17 | 1559.11 | 1472.41 | 63.34% | 30.79% | +5.59 | 1-0 |
| 1949-09-04 | Chicago Hornets | W 42-7 | 1564.70 | 1422.73 | 69.76% | 24.47% | +7.07 | 2-0 |
| 1949-09-18 | Los Angeles Dons | W 42-14 | 1571.77 | 1493.21 | 62.33% | 31.79% | +8.15 | 3-0 |
| 1949-09-25 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | L 17-28 | 1579.92 | 1483.08 | 56.00% | 38.07% | -8.76 | 3-1 |
| 1949-09-30 | @ Chicago Hornets | W 42-24 | 1571.16 | 1433.79 | 61.36% | 32.75% | +6.72 | 4-1 |
| 1949-10-09 | Cleveland Browns | W 56-28 | 1577.88 | 1599.98 | 48.62% | 45.43% | +11.45 | 5-1 |
| 1949-10-16 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 51-7 | 1589.33 | 1476.55 | 66.48% | 27.69% | +8.94 | 6-1 |
| 1949-10-23 | @ New York Yankees | L 3-24 | 1598.27 | 1508.70 | 55.00% | 39.07% | -11.89 | 6-2 |
| 1949-10-30 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 28-30 | 1586.38 | 1600.64 | 40.30% | 53.76% | -2.73 | 6-3 |
| 1949-11-06 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | W 28-10 | 1583.65 | 1423.93 | 64.16% | 29.98% | +6.17 | 7-3 |
| 1949-11-13 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 41-24 | 1589.82 | 1472.76 | 58.72% | 35.37% | +7.04 | 8-3 |
| 1949-11-27 | New York Yankees | W 35-14 | 1596.86 | 1514.05 | 62.86% | 31.27% | +6.94 | 9-3 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1949-12-04 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 21-31 | 1491.35 | 1621.66 | 28.07% | 71.93% | -3.97 | 0-1 |
| 1949-12-04 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | W 31-21 | 1621.66 | 1491.35 | 71.93% | 28.07% | +3.97 | 1-0 |
| 1949-12-11 | San Francisco 49ers | W 21-7 | 1625.63 | 1608.34 | 57.21% | 42.79% | +7.16 | 2-0 |
| 1949-12-04 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-17 | 1507.11 | 1603.80 | 32.13% | 67.87% | -4.54 | 0-1 |
| 1949-12-04 | New York Yankees | W 17-7 | 1603.80 | 1507.11 | 67.87% | 32.13% | +4.54 | 1-0 |
| 1949-12-11 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 7-21 | 1608.34 | 1625.63 | 42.79% | 57.21% | -7.15 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1949-09-09 | 31.40% | Chicago Hornets | 1415.66 | 23 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 1497.38 | 21 |
| 2 | 1949-10-02 | 34.16% | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 1431.90 | 35 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | 1491.84 | 28 |
| 3 | 1949-11-06 | 35.02% | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 1471.14 | 17 | @ New York Yankees | 1524.45 | 14 |
| 4 | 1949-09-25 | 38.07% | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | 1483.08 | 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 1579.92 | 17 |
| 5 | 1949-09-16 | 38.10% | Chicago Hornets | 1419.83 | 35 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 1450.11 | 7 |
| 6 | 1949-10-23 | 39.07% | @ New York Yankees | 1508.70 | 24 | San Francisco 49ers | 1598.27 | 3 |
| 7 | 1949-10-23 | 40.02% | Chicago Hornets | 1419.61 | 17 | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 1435.85 | 7 |
| 8 | 1949-08-26 | 41.37% | @ Chicago Hornets | 1418.42 | 17 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 1491.37 | 14 |
| 9 | 1949-09-11 | 43.42% | New York Yankees | 1495.19 | 17 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | 1487.24 | 14 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1949-09-16 | 13.97 | Chicago Hornets | 35 | 1419.83 | 38.10% | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 7 | 1450.11 | 55.97% |
| 2 | 1949-10-14 | 12.11 | Cleveland Browns | 61 | 1588.53 | 57.39% | @ Los Angeles Dons | 14 | 1481.43 | 36.69% |
| 3 | 1949-10-23 | 11.89 | @ New York Yankees | 24 | 1508.70 | 39.07% | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 1598.27 | 55.00% |
| 4 | 1949-10-09 | 11.45 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 56 | 1577.88 | 48.62% | Cleveland Browns | 28 | 1599.98 | 45.43% |
| 5 | 1949-09-02 | 10.73 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 49 | 1486.65 | 54.53% | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 17 | 1466.82 | 39.53% |
| 6 | 1949-11-20 | 10.56 | Cleveland Browns | 31 | 1608.63 | 54.54% | @ New York Yankees | 0 | 1522.42 | 39.53% |
| 7 | 1949-11-27 | 9.77 | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 38 | 1481.58 | 52.40% | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 14 | 1410.65 | 41.65% |
| 8 | 1949-10-16 | 8.94 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 51 | 1589.33 | 66.48% | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 7 | 1476.55 | 27.69% |
| 9 | 1949-09-25 | 8.76 | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | 28 | 1483.08 | 38.07% | San Francisco 49ers | 17 | 1579.92 | 56.00% |
| 10 | 1949-09-18 | 8.15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 42 | 1571.77 | 62.33% | Los Angeles Dons | 14 | 1493.21 | 31.79% |
| 11 | 1949-10-23 | 8.07 | Chicago Hornets | 17 | 1419.61 | 40.02% | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 7 | 1435.85 | 54.04% |
| 12 | 1949-10-02 | 8.06 | @ Cleveland Browns | 42 | 1591.92 | 66.18% | Los Angeles Dons | 7 | 1481.66 | 27.98% |
| 13 | 1949-10-09 | 7.83 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 42 | 1473.61 | 50.23% | Buffalo Bills (1st) | 28 | 1484.38 | 43.82% |
| 14 | 1949-10-07 | 7.46 | New York Yankees | 38 | 1497.73 | 52.36% | @ Chicago Hornets | 24 | 1427.07 | 41.69% |
| 15 | 1949-10-02 | 7.46 | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 35 | 1431.90 | 34.16% | @ Buffalo Bills (1st) | 28 | 1491.84 | 59.94% |
| 16 | 1949-12-11 * | 7.16 | @ Cleveland Browns | 21 | 1625.63 | 57.21% | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1608.34 | 42.79% |
| 17 | 1949-11-20 | 7.10 | Los Angeles Dons | 21 | 1465.73 | 49.15% | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 10 | 1417.75 | 44.90% |
| 18 | 1949-09-04 | 7.07 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 42 | 1564.70 | 69.76% | Chicago Hornets | 7 | 1422.73 | 24.47% |
| 19 | 1949-11-13 | 7.04 | San Francisco 49ers | 41 | 1589.82 | 58.72% | @ Los Angeles Dons | 24 | 1472.76 | 35.37% |
| 20 | 1949-10-28 | 6.96 | Los Angeles Dons | 24 | 1465.80 | 47.73% | @ Chicago Hornets | 14 | 1427.67 | 46.31% |
| 21 | 1949-11-27 | 6.94 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 35 | 1596.86 | 62.86% | New York Yankees | 14 | 1514.05 | 31.27% |
| 22 | 1949-09-30 | 6.72 | San Francisco 49ers | 42 | 1571.16 | 61.36% | @ Chicago Hornets | 24 | 1433.79 | 32.75% |
| 23 | 1949-11-06 | 6.18 | San Francisco 49ers | 28 | 1583.65 | 64.16% | @ Baltimore Colts (1st) | 10 | 1423.93 | 29.98% |
| 24 | 1949-09-11 | 5.98 | @ Cleveland Browns | 21 | 1576.68 | 67.38% | Baltimore Colts (1st) | 0 | 1456.09 | 26.81% |
| 25 | 1949-11-06 | 5.76 | @ Cleveland Browns | 35 | 1603.37 | 73.89% | Chicago Hornets | 2 | 1420.71 | 20.42% |