1947 AAFC Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns

2nd Title

Last Title: 1946

Runner-Up

New York Yankees

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1946

Biggest Overachiever

Buffalo Bills (1st)

1.70 wins above expected

8 wins · 7.30 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Rockets

2.78 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.78 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Yankees Division	11	2	1	.821	-	378	239	+139	9.85	+1.65
2	Buffalo Bills (1st)	8	4	2	.643	2.5	320	288	+32	7.30	+1.70
3	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	10	1	.250	8	181	340	-159	3.66	-0.16
4	Baltimore Colts (1st)	2	11	1	.179	9	167	377	-210	3.29	-0.79

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns Division	12	1	1	.893	-	410	185	+225	11.58	+0.92
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	4	2	.643	3.5	327	264	+63	9.45	-0.45
3	Los Angeles Dons	7	7	0	.500	5.5	328	256	+72	7.10	-0.10
4	Chicago Rockets	1	13	0	.071	11.5	263	425	-162	3.78	-2.78

Playoff Bracket

AAFC Championship Game

Cleveland Browns 14

New York Yankees 3

Dec 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns	West	1938	12.5	11.58	+0.92	96.64%	5	9	10	11	12	13	14
New York Yankees	East	1863	11.5	9.85	+1.65	98.38%	2	7	8	9	10	12	14
San Francisco 49ers	West	1667	9	9.45	-0.45	82.39%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Buffalo Bills (1st)	East	1596	9	7.30	+1.70	98.86%	1	4	6	7	8	9	13
Los Angeles Dons	West	1470	7	7.10	-0.10	70.28%	1	4	6	7	8	9	13
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1230	3.5	3.66	-0.16	81.35%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Baltimore Colts (1st)	East	1160	2.5	3.29	-0.79	67.61%	0	1	2	3	4	5	10
Chicago Rockets	West	1076	1	3.78	-2.78	9.10%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Dodgers	(1st)	Yankees
Baltimore Colts (1st)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Buffalo Bills (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Chicago Rockets	—	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Dodgers	(1st)	Yankees
Chicago Rockets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	—	0.89%	0.89%	—	1.79%	4.46%
7–13	0.89%	3.57%	5.36%	2.68%	2.68%	2.68%	0.89%	18.75%
14–20	—	5.36%	7.14%	5.36%	5.36%	1.79%	—	25.00%
21–27	0.89%	2.68%	5.36%	7.14%	0.89%	2.68%	1.79%	21.43%
28–34	0.89%	2.68%	5.36%	0.89%	5.36%	0.89%	0.89%	16.96%
35–41	—	2.68%	1.79%	2.68%	0.89%	—	—	8.04%
42+	1.79%	0.89%	—	1.79%	0.89%	—	—	5.36%
Total	4.46%	18.75%	25.00%	21.43%	16.96%	8.04%	5.36%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.20	21.20	+0.00
SD	11.67	11.67	18.34
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	56	56	+56
Min	0	0	-56

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Baltimore Colts (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.93	26.93	-15.00
SD	8.51	13.53	18.31
CV	0.71	0.50	—
Max	28	56	+9
Min	0	7	-56

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	64.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.93	24.29	-11.36
SD	8.24	14.33	15.76
CV	0.64	0.59	—
Max	35	55	+7
Min	7	3	-48

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.86	20.57	+2.29
SD	8.37	10.99	16.56
CV	0.37	0.53	—
Max	35	41	+28
Min	7	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Chicago Rockets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	30.36	-11.57
SD	8.90	11.30	9.44
CV	0.47	0.37	—
Max	31	48	+6
Min	3	7	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.29	13.21	+16.07
SD	12.14	8.75	15.47
CV	0.41	0.66	—
Max	55	28	+48
Min	10	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Dons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.43	18.29	+5.14
SD	15.41	8.53	21.15
CV	0.66	0.47	—
Max	56	30	+56
Min	0	0	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	35.71%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

New York Yankees — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.00	17.07	+9.93
SD	8.58	7.66	10.59
CV	0.32	0.45	—
Max	48	28	+24
Min	16	7	-9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.36	18.86	+4.50
SD	11.10	8.96	12.72
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	42	37	+25
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.81	+0.4
Allowed	0.92	-0.5
Differential	0.95	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills (1st)	9	7.30	+1.70
2	New York Yankees	11.5	9.85	+1.65
3	Cleveland Browns	12.5	11.58	+0.92
4	Los Angeles Dons	7	7.10	-0.10
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	3.5	3.66	-0.16

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Rockets	1	3.78	-2.78
2	Baltimore Colts (1st)	2.5	3.29	-0.79
3	San Francisco 49ers	9	9.45	-0.45
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	3.5	3.66	-0.16
5	Los Angeles Dons	7	7.10	-0.10

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Dons	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 24
2	Cleveland Browns	5	Sep 5 – Oct 5	1 in 3
3	New York Yankees	5	Oct 12 – Nov 16	1 in 3
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	1	Oct 3 – Oct 3	1 in 3
5	Chicago Rockets	1	Nov 7 – Nov 7	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Rockets	10	Aug 29 – Oct 31	1 in 48
2	Cleveland Browns	1	Oct 12 – Oct 12	1 in 14
3	Baltimore Colts (1st)	7	Oct 12 – Nov 23	1 in 12
4	Los Angeles Dons	3	Nov 2 – Nov 16	1 in 6
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	Aug 31 – Sep 19	1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Yankees	86.19%	13.56%	0.24%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	13.66%	78.46%	6.82%	1.06%
Brooklyn Dodgers	0.09%	4.92%	52.59%	42.40%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	0.07%	3.06%	40.35%	56.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns	82.86%	16.18%	0.96%	<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	16.19%	67.36%	16.07%	0.39%
Los Angeles Dons	0.95%	16.21%	75.67%	7.17%
Chicago Rockets	<0.01%	0.26%	7.30%	92.44%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Cleveland Browns	68.68%	22.06%	7.49%	1.51%	0.25%	<0.01%	-	-
New York Yankees	17.38%	36.89%	30.19%	11.63%	3.60%	0.27%	0.03%	<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	12.27%	30.80%	33.32%	16.37%	6.46%	0.67%	0.09%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	1.14%	5.83%	15.10%	33.43%	33.68%	8.02%	2.28%	0.53%
Los Angeles Dons	0.53%	4.36%	13.40%	32.88%	36.45%	9.02%	2.71%	0.66%
Chicago Rockets	<0.01%	0.03%	0.23%	1.88%	8.16%	30.39%	30.85%	28.46%
Brooklyn Dodgers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.18%	1.47%	6.97%	29.01%	32.68%	29.68%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	<0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.84%	4.42%	22.62%	31.37%	40.65%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Yankees	86.19%	13.81%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	13.66%	86.34%
Brooklyn Dodgers	0.09%	99.91%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	0.07%	99.94%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns	82.86%	17.14%
San Francisco 49ers	16.19%	83.81%
Los Angeles Dons	0.95%	99.05%
Chicago Rockets	<0.01%	100.00%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+10.71%

Fortress

51.79%7.14%41.07%

Elo Value

Home Edge

25 Elo

0.039 points per Elo point

037.3780

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.18 points

Lean Home

-8+1.47+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.2

Few Contenders

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

56%

Cleveland Browns, 1st of 8

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

65.9%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.2 · As Expected: 1.2 to 1.65 · Elevated: 1.65 to 2.24 · High Variance: 2.24 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.67 · Close: 0.67 to 0.9 · Off Target: 0.9 to 1.18 · Well Off Target: 1.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.38 · As Expected: 0.38 to 0.62 · More Than Expected: 0.62 to 1 · Far More Than Expected: 1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.60 wins

As Expected

01.504

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.62

Pinpoint

00.782

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

98.86%

Buffalo Bills (1st)

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

9.10%

Chicago Rockets

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 8

Many Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.31

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.70

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

95%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 100%

99%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.34

Highly Predictable

00.372

Matchup Imbalance

0.54

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.45

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

0.74

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Chalk Held

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

Favorites Held

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.37 · Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.

Probability calibration

0.54

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.52

Underconfident

0.3301891.001.66981

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.090

Well Within Noise

00.1860.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns	82.86%	55.73%
New York Yankees	86.19%	37.08%
San Francisco 49ers	16.19%	5.03%
Buffalo Bills (1st)	13.66%	2.03%
Los Angeles Dons	0.95%	0.12%
Brooklyn Dodgers	0.09%	<0.01%
Baltimore Colts (1st)	0.07%	-
Chicago Rockets	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Rockets	Cleveland Browns	Los Angeles Dons	San Francisco 49ers	Baltimore Colts (1st)	Brooklyn Dodgers	Buffalo Bills (1st)	New York Yankees
Baltimore Colts (1st)		0.0%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Brooklyn Dodgers		1.3%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	9.1%0.01%
Buffalo Bills (1st)		10.3%11.38%	68.1%0.12%	35.8%2.16%
New York Yankees	100.0%<0.01%	36.4%71.34%	90.2%0.83%	74.1%14.01%
Chicago Rockets								0.0%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns					100.0%0.06%	98.7%0.08%	89.7%11.38%	63.6%71.34%
Los Angeles Dons					100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	31.9%0.12%	9.8%0.83%
San Francisco 49ers					100.0%<0.01%	90.9%0.01%	64.2%2.16%	25.9%14.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Cleveland Browns	65.95%	Won Championship Game
New York Yankees	34.05%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns	New York Yankees
New York Yankees	34.1%100.00%
Cleveland Browns		65.9%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns 65.95% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. New York Yankees

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.95%

New York Yankees 34.05% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.05%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1947-09-07	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 16-7	1357.51	1351.03	51.87%	39.45%	+62.94	1-0
1947-09-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-14	1420.45	1688.56	13.51%	81.74%	-18.66	1-1
1947-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-28	1401.79	1751.80	9.11%	87.46%	-24.65	1-2
1947-09-28	New York Yankees	L 7-21	1377.14	1734.14	12.64%	82.85%	-24.61	1-3
1947-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	T 28-28	1352.53	1722.49	11.89%	83.82%	+8.92	1-3
1947-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 15-20	1361.45	1499.14	23.96%	68.95%	-28.69	1-4
1947-10-19	Los Angeles Dons	L 10-38	1332.76	1526.73	25.84%	66.77%	-73.31	1-5
1947-10-26	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 0-56	1259.45	1600.04	9.54%	86.88%	-36.61	1-6
1947-11-02	@ New York Yankees	L 21-35	1222.84	1725.21	4.14%	94.15%	-7.69	1-7
1947-11-07	@ Chicago Rockets	L 21-27	1215.15	1117.73	54.15%	37.28%	-68.82	1-8
1947-11-16	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-21	1146.33	1247.72	27.75%	64.58%	-39.39	1-9
1947-11-23	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-33	1106.94	1635.35	5.36%	92.48%	-11.69	1-10
1947-11-30	Chicago Rockets	W 14-7	1095.25	1165.43	40.97%	50.30%	+69.45	2-10
1947-12-07	Cleveland Browns	L 0-42	1164.70	1933.83	1.44%	97.91%	-4.54	2-11
1947-08-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1381.59	1633.29	14.57%	80.39%	-30.56	0-1
1947-09-07	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 7-16	1351.03	1357.51	39.45%	51.87%	-62.93	0-2
1947-09-12	Cleveland Browns	L 7-55	1288.10	1720.84	8.75%	87.93%	-30.96	0-3
1947-09-19	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 21-48	1257.14	1434.42	20.29%	73.32%	-56.15	0-4
1947-10-03	@ Chicago Rockets	W 35-31	1200.99	1228.23	36.68%	54.78%	+56.81	1-4
1947-10-12	@ New York Yankees	L 7-31	1257.80	1700.39	5.68%	92.04%	-13.96	1-5
1947-10-17	Buffalo Bills (1st)	T 14-14	1243.84	1527.83	17.65%	76.54%	+7.33	1-5
1947-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 7-35	1251.17	1520.51	13.43%	81.84%	-37.09	1-6
1947-10-31	Chicago Rockets	W 7-3	1214.08	1152.39	59.47%	32.34%	+34.65	2-6
1947-11-09	@ Cleveland Browns	L 12-13	1248.73	1877.02	2.08%	97.00%	-1.01	2-7
1947-11-16	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-14	1247.72	1146.33	64.58%	27.75%	+39.39	3-7
1947-11-23	Los Angeles Dons	L 12-16	1287.11	1427.37	31.87%	59.98%	-34.18	3-8
1947-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-21	1252.93	1651.17	10.37%	85.79%	-19.98	3-9
1947-12-07	New York Yankees	L 17-20	1232.95	1860.21	3.16%	95.50%	-2.70	3-10
1947-08-31	New York Yankees	W 28-24	1405.78	1563.93	29.77%	62.31%	+64.02	1-0
1947-09-05	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-30	1469.80	1684.38	17.24%	77.05%	-36.46	1-1
1947-09-14	Chicago Rockets	W 28-20	1433.34	1345.29	62.90%	29.24%	+44.37	2-1
1947-09-19	@ Chicago Rockets	W 31-14	1477.71	1300.92	64.67%	27.67%	+61.22	3-1
1947-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-41	1538.93	1642.08	36.53%	54.94%	-80.40	3-2
1947-10-05	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 27-25	1458.53	1490.56	36.06%	55.44%	+40.61	4-2
1947-10-12	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 20-15	1499.14	1361.45	68.95%	23.96%	+28.69	5-2
1947-10-17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 14-14	1527.83	1243.84	76.54%	17.65%	-7.32	5-2
1947-10-26	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 35-7	1520.51	1251.17	81.84%	13.43%	+37.09	6-2
1947-11-02	Cleveland Browns	L 7-28	1557.60	1832.35	18.38%	75.64%	-44.68	6-3
1947-11-09	Los Angeles Dons	W 25-0	1512.92	1557.48	44.57%	46.63%	+122.43	7-3
1947-11-23	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 33-14	1635.35	1106.94	92.48%	5.36%	+11.70	8-3
1947-11-30	@ New York Yankees	L 13-35	1647.05	1805.04	22.02%	71.24%	-55.18	8-4
1947-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 21-21	1591.87	1671.16	30.24%	61.78%	+3.89	8-4
1947-08-29	Los Angeles Dons	L 21-24	1461.73	1511.78	43.79%	47.42%	-40.03	0-1
1947-09-05	@ New York Yankees	L 26-48	1421.70	1499.91	30.37%	61.64%	-76.41	0-2
1947-09-14	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 20-28	1345.29	1433.34	29.24%	62.90%	-44.37	0-3
1947-09-19	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 14-31	1300.92	1477.71	27.67%	64.67%	-61.23	0-4
1947-09-26	Cleveland Browns	L 21-41	1239.69	1776.45	5.13%	92.79%	-11.46	0-5
1947-10-03	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 31-35	1228.23	1200.99	54.78%	36.68%	-56.80	0-6
1947-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-42	1171.43	1713.58	3.34%	95.25%	-6.17	0-7
1947-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 28-31	1165.26	1769.49	2.38%	96.59%	-2.01	0-8
1947-10-24	New York Yankees	L 7-28	1163.25	1714.35	4.76%	93.30%	-10.86	0-9
1947-10-31	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 3-7	1152.39	1214.08	32.34%	59.47%	-34.66	0-10
1947-11-07	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 27-21	1117.73	1215.15	37.28%	54.15%	+68.82	1-10
1947-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-41	1186.55	1630.06	8.29%	88.53%	-21.12	1-11
1947-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	L 7-14	1165.43	1095.25	50.30%	40.97%	-69.45	1-12
1947-12-07	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 14-34	1095.98	1449.30	8.96%	87.65%	-20.48	1-13
1947-09-05	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 30-14	1684.38	1469.80	77.05%	17.24%	+36.46	1-0
1947-09-12	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 55-7	1720.84	1288.10	87.93%	8.75%	+30.96	2-0
1947-09-21	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 28-0	1751.80	1401.79	87.46%	9.11%	+24.65	3-0
1947-09-26	@ Chicago Rockets	W 41-21	1776.45	1239.69	92.79%	5.13%	+11.46	4-0
1947-10-05	New York Yankees	W 26-17	1787.91	1758.75	55.05%	36.43%	+58.36	5-0
1947-10-12	Los Angeles Dons	L 10-13	1846.27	1449.95	89.97%	7.22%	-76.78	5-1
1947-10-19	Chicago Rockets	W 31-28	1769.49	1165.26	96.59%	2.38%	+2.01	6-1
1947-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1771.50	1719.75	47.67%	43.55%	+60.85	7-1
1947-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 28-7	1832.35	1557.60	75.64%	18.38%	+44.67	8-1
1947-11-09	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 13-12	1877.02	1248.73	97.00%	2.08%	+1.02	9-1
1947-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-14	1878.04	1676.48	75.79%	18.26%	+46.43	10-1
1947-11-23	@ New York Yankees	T 28-28	1924.47	1802.16	57.57%	34.08%	-2.88	10-1
1947-11-27	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 27-17	1921.59	1461.54	89.42%	7.63%	+12.24	11-1
1947-12-07	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 42-0	1933.83	1164.70	97.91%	1.44%	+4.54	12-1
1947-08-29	@ Chicago Rockets	W 24-21	1511.78	1461.73	47.42%	43.79%	+40.04	1-0
1947-09-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1551.82	1663.85	26.60%	65.90%	-24.71	1-1
1947-09-12	New York Yankees	L 14-30	1527.11	1576.33	43.91%	47.30%	-92.69	1-2
1947-09-19	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 48-21	1434.42	1257.14	73.32%	20.29%	+56.14	2-2
1947-10-05	Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 25-27	1490.56	1458.53	55.44%	36.06%	-40.61	2-3
1947-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-10	1449.95	1846.27	7.22%	89.97%	+76.78	3-3
1947-10-19	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 38-10	1526.73	1332.76	66.77%	25.84%	+73.31	4-3
1947-10-26	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 56-0	1600.04	1259.45	86.88%	9.54%	+36.60	5-3
1947-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-26	1636.64	1658.90	47.77%	43.44%	-79.16	5-4
1947-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 0-25	1557.48	1512.92	46.63%	44.57%	-122.43	5-5
1947-11-16	@ New York Yankees	L 13-16	1435.05	1794.48	8.69%	88.01%	-7.68	5-6
1947-11-23	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 16-12	1427.37	1287.11	59.98%	31.87%	+34.17	6-6
1947-11-27	Cleveland Browns	L 17-27	1461.54	1921.59	7.63%	89.42%	-12.24	6-7
1947-12-07	Chicago Rockets	W 34-14	1449.30	1095.98	87.65%	8.96%	+20.48	7-7
1947-08-31	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	L 24-28	1563.93	1405.78	62.31%	29.77%	-64.02	0-1
1947-09-05	Chicago Rockets	W 48-26	1499.91	1421.70	61.64%	30.37%	+76.42	1-1
1947-09-12	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 30-14	1576.33	1527.11	47.30%	43.91%	+92.68	2-1
1947-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-16	1669.01	1707.21	35.27%	56.29%	+65.13	3-1
1947-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 21-7	1734.14	1377.14	82.85%	12.64%	+24.61	4-1
1947-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-26	1758.75	1787.91	36.43%	55.05%	-58.36	4-2
1947-10-12	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 31-7	1700.39	1257.80	92.04%	5.68%	+13.96	5-2
1947-10-24	@ Chicago Rockets	W 28-7	1714.35	1163.25	93.30%	4.76%	+10.86	6-2
1947-11-02	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 35-21	1725.21	1222.84	94.15%	4.14%	+7.69	7-2
1947-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-16	1732.90	1738.06	50.22%	41.05%	+61.58	8-2
1947-11-16	Los Angeles Dons	W 16-13	1794.48	1435.05	88.01%	8.69%	+7.68	9-2
1947-11-23	Cleveland Browns	T 28-28	1802.16	1924.47	34.08%	57.57%	+2.88	9-2
1947-11-30	Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 35-13	1805.04	1647.05	71.24%	22.02%	+55.17	10-2
1947-12-07	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 20-17	1860.21	1232.95	95.50%	3.16%	+2.69	11-2
1947-08-31	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 23-7	1633.29	1381.59	80.39%	14.57%	+30.56	1-0
1947-09-07	Los Angeles Dons	W 17-14	1663.85	1551.82	65.90%	26.60%	+24.71	2-0
1947-09-14	Baltimore Colts (1st)	W 14-7	1688.56	1420.45	81.74%	13.51%	+18.65	3-0
1947-09-21	New York Yankees	L 16-21	1707.21	1669.01	56.29%	35.27%	-65.13	3-1
1947-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	W 41-24	1642.08	1538.93	54.94%	36.53%	+80.41	4-1
1947-10-05	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	T 28-28	1722.49	1352.53	83.82%	11.89%	-8.91	4-1
1947-10-12	Chicago Rockets	W 42-28	1713.58	1171.43	95.25%	3.34%	+6.17	5-1
1947-10-26	Cleveland Browns	L 7-14	1719.75	1771.50	43.55%	47.67%	-60.85	5-2
1947-11-02	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 26-16	1658.90	1636.64	43.44%	47.77%	+79.16	6-2
1947-11-09	@ New York Yankees	L 16-24	1738.06	1732.90	41.05%	50.22%	-61.58	6-3
1947-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-37	1676.48	1878.04	18.26%	75.79%	-46.42	6-4
1947-11-21	@ Chicago Rockets	W 41-16	1630.06	1186.55	88.53%	8.29%	+21.11	7-4
1947-11-27	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-7	1651.17	1252.93	85.79%	10.37%	+19.99	8-4
1947-12-07	Buffalo Bills (1st)	T 21-21	1671.16	1591.87	61.78%	30.24%	-3.88	8-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1947-12-14	@ New York Yankees	W 14-3	1938.37	1862.90	55.46%	44.54%	+70.88	1-0
1947-12-14	Cleveland Browns	L 3-14	1862.90	1938.37	44.54%	55.46%	-70.87	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1947-10-12	7.22%	Los Angeles Dons	1449.95	13	@ Cleveland Browns	1846.27	10
2	1947-08-31	29.77%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1405.78	28	New York Yankees	1563.93	24
3	1947-09-21	35.27%	New York Yankees	1669.01	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1707.21	16
4	1947-10-05	36.06%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	1458.53	27	@ Los Angeles Dons	1490.56	25
5	1947-10-03	36.68%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1200.99	35	@ Chicago Rockets	1228.23	31
6	1947-11-07	37.28%	@ Chicago Rockets	1117.73	27	Baltimore Colts (1st)	1215.15	21
7	1947-11-30	40.97%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	1095.25	14	Chicago Rockets	1165.43	7
8	1947-11-02	43.44%	San Francisco 49ers	1658.90	26	@ Los Angeles Dons	1636.64	16
9	1947-11-09	44.57%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	1512.92	25	Los Angeles Dons	1557.48	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1947-11-09	122.43	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	25	1512.92	44.57%	Los Angeles Dons	0	1557.48	46.63%
2	1947-09-12	92.69	New York Yankees	30	1576.33	47.30%	@ Los Angeles Dons	14	1527.11	43.91%
3	1947-09-28	80.41	San Francisco 49ers	41	1642.08	54.94%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	24	1538.93	36.53%
4	1947-11-02	79.16	San Francisco 49ers	26	1658.90	43.44%	@ Los Angeles Dons	16	1636.64	47.77%
5	1947-10-12	76.78	Los Angeles Dons	13	1449.95	7.22%	@ Cleveland Browns	10	1846.27	89.97%
6	1947-09-05	76.42	@ New York Yankees	48	1499.91	61.64%	Chicago Rockets	26	1421.70	30.37%
7	1947-10-19	73.31	Los Angeles Dons	38	1526.73	66.77%	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	10	1332.76	25.84%
8	1947-12-14 *	70.88	Cleveland Browns	14	1938.37	55.46%	@ New York Yankees	3	1862.90	44.54%
9	1947-11-30	69.45	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	14	1095.25	40.97%	Chicago Rockets	7	1165.43	50.30%
10	1947-11-07	68.82	@ Chicago Rockets	27	1117.73	37.28%	Baltimore Colts (1st)	21	1215.15	54.15%
11	1947-09-21	65.13	New York Yankees	21	1669.01	35.27%	@ San Francisco 49ers	16	1707.21	56.29%
12	1947-08-31	64.02	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	28	1405.78	29.77%	New York Yankees	24	1563.93	62.31%
13	1947-09-07	62.94	@ Baltimore Colts (1st)	16	1357.51	51.87%	Brooklyn Dodgers	7	1351.03	39.45%
14	1947-11-09	61.58	@ New York Yankees	24	1732.90	50.22%	San Francisco 49ers	16	1738.06	41.05%
15	1947-09-19	61.23	Buffalo Bills (1st)	31	1477.71	64.67%	@ Chicago Rockets	14	1300.92	27.67%
16	1947-10-26	60.85	Cleveland Browns	14	1771.50	47.67%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1719.75	43.55%
17	1947-10-05	58.36	@ Cleveland Browns	26	1787.91	55.05%	New York Yankees	17	1758.75	36.43%
18	1947-10-03	56.81	Brooklyn Dodgers	35	1200.99	36.68%	@ Chicago Rockets	31	1228.23	54.78%
19	1947-09-19	56.15	@ Los Angeles Dons	48	1434.42	73.32%	Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1257.14	20.29%
20	1947-11-30	55.18	@ New York Yankees	35	1805.04	71.24%	Buffalo Bills (1st)	13	1647.05	22.02%
21	1947-11-16	46.43	@ Cleveland Browns	37	1878.04	75.79%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1676.48	18.26%
22	1947-11-02	44.68	Cleveland Browns	28	1832.35	75.64%	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	7	1557.60	18.38%
23	1947-09-14	44.37	@ Buffalo Bills (1st)	28	1433.34	62.90%	Chicago Rockets	20	1345.29	29.24%
24	1947-10-05	40.61	Buffalo Bills (1st)	27	1458.53	36.06%	@ Los Angeles Dons	25	1490.56	55.44%
25	1947-08-29	40.04	Los Angeles Dons	24	1511.78	47.42%	@ Chicago Rockets	21	1461.73	43.79%