1946 AAFC Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns

1st Title

Runner-Up

New York Yankees

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns

2.03 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.97 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Brooklyn Dodgers

2.72 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.22 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Yankees Division	10	3	1	.750	-	270	192	+78	8.68	+1.82
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	10	1	.250	7	226	339	-113	6.22	-2.72
3	Buffalo Bisons	3	10	1	.250	7	249	370	-121	5.23	-1.73
4	Miami Seahawks	3	11	0	.214	7.5	167	378	-211	4.37	-1.37

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns Division	12	2	0	.857	-	423	137	+286	9.97	+2.03
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	5	0	.643	3	307	189	+118	7.73	+1.27
3	Los Angeles Dons	7	5	2	.571	4	305	290	+15	7.32	+0.68
4	Chicago Rockets	5	6	3	.464	5.5	263	315	-52	6.49	+0.01

Playoff Bracket

AAFC Championship Game

Cleveland Browns 14

New York Yankees 9

Dec 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns	West	1752	12	9.97	+2.03	97.26%	2	7	8	10	11	12	14
San Francisco 49ers	West	1688	9	7.73	+1.27	90.67%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Yankees	East	1617	10.5	8.68	+1.82	97.86%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Los Angeles Dons	West	1520	8	7.32	+0.68	94.13%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Rockets	West	1448	6.5	6.49	+0.01	92.87%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Buffalo Bisons	East	1356	3.5	5.23	-1.73	47.07%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1320	3.5	6.22	-2.72	26.20%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Miami Seahawks	East	1299	3	4.37	-1.37	43.21%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Bisons	Seahawks	Yankees
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bisons	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Seahawks	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
New York Yankees	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Brooklyn Dodgers	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bisons	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Miami Seahawks	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New York Yankees	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team	Rockets	Browns	Dons	49ers
Chicago Rockets	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Bisons	Seahawks	Yankees
Chicago Rockets	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.79%	—	2.68%	—	0.89%	6.25%
7–13	0.89%	1.79%	2.68%	8.04%	3.57%	—	0.89%	17.86%
14–20	1.79%	2.68%	14.29%	5.36%	5.36%	—	4.46%	33.93%
21–27	—	8.04%	5.36%	5.36%	0.89%	—	—	19.64%
28–34	2.68%	3.57%	5.36%	0.89%	—	0.89%	—	13.39%
35–41	—	—	—	—	0.89%	1.79%	—	2.68%
42+	0.89%	0.89%	4.46%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	17.86%	33.93%	19.64%	13.39%	2.68%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.73	19.73	+0.00
SD	12.24	12.24	19.60
CV	0.62	0.62	—
Max	66	66	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	24.21	-8.07
SD	6.85	13.93	17.60
CV	0.42	0.58	—
Max	30	66	+23
Min	7	7	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	14.29%	57.14%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bisons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.79	26.43	-8.64
SD	11.62	13.15	18.19
CV	0.65	0.50	—
Max	49	62	+32
Min	0	14	-48

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Chicago Rockets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	22.50	-3.71
SD	10.83	14.05	17.08
CV	0.58	0.62	—
Max	38	51	+21
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
Total	35.71%	21.43%	35.71%	—	7.14%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.21	9.79	+20.43
SD	16.01	9.46	17.89
CV	0.53	0.97	—
Max	66	34	+52
Min	7	0	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	50.00%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Los Angeles Dons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	20.71	+1.07
SD	13.45	10.11	19.98
CV	0.62	0.49	—
Max	62	48	+48
Min	7	9	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	28.57%	14.29%	50.00%	—	7.14%	100%

Miami Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.93	27.00	-15.07
SD	9.48	8.56	16.18
CV	0.79	0.32	—
Max	31	44	+11
Min	0	14	-44

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	35.71%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	100%

New York Yankees — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.29	13.71	+5.57
SD	8.80	9.39	12.07
CV	0.46	0.68	—
Max	31	38	+31
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	50.00%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.93	13.50	+8.43
SD	12.79	6.21	15.85
CV	0.58	0.46	—
Max	48	24	+41
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+0.4
Allowed	0.96	-0.4
Differential	0.92	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns	12	9.97	+2.03
2	New York Yankees	10.5	8.68	+1.82
3	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.73	+1.27
4	Los Angeles Dons	8	7.32	+0.68
5	Chicago Rockets	6.5	6.49	+0.01

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Brooklyn Dodgers	3.5	6.22	-2.72
2	Buffalo Bisons	3.5	5.23	-1.73
3	Miami Seahawks	3	4.37	-1.37
4	Chicago Rockets	6.5	6.49	+0.01
5	Los Angeles Dons	8	7.32	+0.68

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns	7	Sep 6 – Oct 20	1 in 33
2	Buffalo Bisons	2	Oct 19 – Oct 27	1 in 15
3	New York Yankees	5	Oct 19 – Nov 17	1 in 13
4	Los Angeles Dons	3	Nov 17 – Dec 1	1 in 5
5	Chicago Rockets	2	Sep 25 – Sep 29	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brooklyn Dodgers	6	Nov 10 – Dec 13	1 in 56
2	Cleveland Browns	2	Oct 27 – Nov 3	1 in 20
3	Miami Seahawks	4	Sep 6 – Oct 8	1 in 11
4	Buffalo Bisons	4	Sep 8 – Sep 25	1 in 10
5	Los Angeles Dons	3	Oct 12 – Oct 27	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Yankees	77.14%	17.15%	4.70%	1.01%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.43%	43.64%	27.62%	14.31%
Buffalo Bisons	6.38%	25.77%	38.57%	29.28%
Miami Seahawks	2.05%	13.43%	29.11%	55.41%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns	70.75%	19.88%	7.09%	2.28%
San Francisco 49ers	14.51%	34.81%	30.07%	20.61%
Los Angeles Dons	10.01%	28.71%	33.37%	27.91%
Chicago Rockets	4.73%	16.60%	29.47%	49.20%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Cleveland Browns	55.97%	23.41%	11.08%	5.38%	2.55%	1.08%	0.41%	0.11%
New York Yankees	21.45%	28.63%	20.47%	13.59%	8.30%	4.73%	2.16%	0.67%
San Francisco 49ers	10.21%	18.09%	20.71%	18.37%	14.29%	9.90%	5.79%	2.64%
Los Angeles Dons	6.69%	13.94%	18.62%	18.92%	16.83%	12.93%	8.28%	3.80%
Chicago Rockets	2.87%	7.26%	12.22%	16.35%	19.26%	18.63%	14.80%	8.62%
Brooklyn Dodgers	2.02%	5.84%	10.46%	14.97%	18.21%	19.77%	17.30%	11.44%
Buffalo Bisons	0.63%	2.16%	4.54%	8.21%	13.16%	19.48%	26.93%	24.89%
Miami Seahawks	0.15%	0.68%	1.90%	4.21%	7.41%	13.48%	24.32%	47.83%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Yankees	77.14%	22.86%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.43%	85.57%
Buffalo Bisons	6.38%	93.62%
Miami Seahawks	2.05%	97.95%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns	70.75%	29.24%
San Francisco 49ers	14.51%	85.49%
Los Angeles Dons	10.01%	90.00%
Chicago Rockets	4.73%	95.27%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+7.14%

Clear Edge

50.00%7.14%42.86%

Elo Value

Home Edge

14 Elo

0.073 points per Elo point

024.8640

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.86 points

Lean Home

-8+1.81+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Few Contenders

1248

Champion Preseason Odds

53%

Cleveland Browns, 1st of 8

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

71.7%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.39 · As Expected: 1.39 to 1.91 · Elevated: 1.91 to 2.6 · High Variance: 2.6 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 · Close: 1.09 to 1.47 · Off Target: 1.47 to 1.92 · Well Off Target: 1.92 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.39 · As Expected: 0.39 to 0.65 · More Than Expected: 0.65 to 1.04 · Far More Than Expected: 1.04 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.68 wins

As Expected

01.734

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.25

Pinpoint

01.283

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 93.75%

97.86%

New York Yankees

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

26.20%

Brooklyn Dodgers

06.25%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 8

Many Outliers

00.88

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.97

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

84%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

93%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%14%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.48

Highly Predictable

00.502

Matchup Imbalance

0.33

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.29

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 · Within Noise: 0.1 to 0.21 · Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.42 · Well Above Noise: 0.42 and up.

Probability calibration

0.93

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.09

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.130

Within Noise

00.2080.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns	70.75%	53.18%
New York Yankees	77.14%	28.35%
San Francisco 49ers	14.51%	9.75%
Los Angeles Dons	10.01%	4.64%
Chicago Rockets	4.73%	1.74%
Brooklyn Dodgers	14.43%	1.41%
Buffalo Bisons	6.38%	0.77%
Miami Seahawks	2.05%	0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Rockets	Cleveland Browns	Los Angeles Dons	San Francisco 49ers	Brooklyn Dodgers	Buffalo Bisons	Miami Seahawks	New York Yankees
Brooklyn Dodgers	30.8%0.64%	6.5%10.34%	25.0%1.39%	9.6%2.06%
Buffalo Bisons	35.7%0.29%	8.6%4.45%	25.8%0.64%	11.5%1.00%
Miami Seahawks	30.4%0.09%	5.3%1.46%	17.4%0.21%	6.5%0.29%
New York Yankees	71.7%3.71%	30.2%54.51%	62.0%7.77%	39.7%11.16%
Chicago Rockets					69.2%0.64%	64.3%0.29%	69.6%0.09%	28.3%3.71%
Cleveland Browns					93.5%10.34%	91.4%4.45%	94.7%1.46%	69.8%54.51%
Los Angeles Dons					75.0%1.39%	74.2%0.64%	82.6%0.21%	38.0%7.77%
San Francisco 49ers					90.4%2.06%	88.5%1.00%	93.5%0.29%	60.3%11.16%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Championship Game	Actual Outcome
Cleveland Browns	71.67%	Won Championship Game
New York Yankees	28.33%	Eliminated in Championship Game

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns	New York Yankees
New York Yankees	28.3%100.00%
Cleveland Browns		71.7%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns 71.67% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. New York Yankees

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.67%

New York Yankees 28.33% chance to win

Championship Game

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.33%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-09-08	@ Buffalo Bisons	W 27-14	1500.00	1500.00	41.87%	48.97%	+41.68	1-0
1946-09-13	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 14-20	1541.68	1500.00	47.82%	43.00%	-27.71	1-1
1946-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-32	1513.97	1481.37	46.51%	44.29%	-48.08	1-2
1946-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-26	1465.89	1669.41	19.03%	74.55%	-19.91	1-3
1946-10-11	Chicago Rockets	T 21-21	1445.98	1489.80	42.70%	48.12%	+0.29	1-3
1946-10-19	@ New York Yankees	L 10-21	1446.27	1534.64	30.48%	61.13%	-24.52	1-4
1946-10-25	Miami Seahawks	W 30-7	1421.75	1331.11	61.43%	30.21%	+35.15	2-4
1946-11-02	@ Chicago Rockets	W 21-14	1456.90	1437.00	44.69%	46.11%	+28.96	3-4
1946-11-10	Buffalo Bisons	L 14-17	1485.86	1433.67	56.29%	34.89%	-22.77	3-5
1946-11-17	Los Angeles Dons	L 14-19	1463.09	1486.29	45.64%	45.16%	-24.24	3-6
1946-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-30	1438.85	1584.95	29.55%	62.17%	-28.68	3-7
1946-11-28	New York Yankees	L 7-21	1410.17	1573.97	27.58%	64.41%	-25.04	3-8
1946-12-08	Cleveland Browns	L 14-66	1385.13	1730.56	12.54%	82.77%	-21.23	3-9
1946-12-13	@ Miami Seahawks	L 20-31	1363.90	1254.68	57.29%	33.97%	-44.31	3-10
1946-09-08	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-27	1500.00	1500.00	48.97%	41.87%	-41.68	0-1
1946-09-14	@ New York Yankees	L 10-21	1458.32	1543.26	30.88%	60.68%	-24.84	0-2
1946-09-22	Cleveland Browns	L 0-28	1433.48	1602.02	27.06%	64.99%	-34.75	0-3
1946-09-25	@ Chicago Rockets	L 35-38	1398.73	1465.64	33.05%	58.29%	-13.86	0-4
1946-09-29	Los Angeles Dons	T 21-21	1384.87	1553.98	27.00%	65.06%	+2.12	0-4
1946-10-04	New York Yankees	L 13-21	1386.99	1534.24	29.42%	62.31%	-20.19	0-5
1946-10-11	Miami Seahawks	L 14-17	1366.80	1338.38	53.00%	37.99%	-21.53	0-6
1946-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-14	1345.27	1566.42	21.82%	71.15%	+28.25	1-6
1946-10-27	Chicago Rockets	W 49-17	1373.52	1518.31	29.70%	62.00%	+81.31	2-6
1946-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-27	1454.83	1601.05	24.23%	68.29%	-21.16	2-7
1946-11-10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 17-14	1433.67	1485.86	34.89%	56.29%	+22.77	3-7
1946-11-18	@ Miami Seahawks	L 14-21	1456.44	1262.21	68.08%	24.40%	-41.46	3-8
1946-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-42	1414.98	1704.61	12.90%	82.29%	-15.17	3-9
1946-12-01	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 14-62	1399.81	1530.74	25.78%	66.47%	-43.32	3-10
1946-09-13	Cleveland Browns	L 6-20	1500.00	1566.46	39.56%	51.35%	-35.56	0-1
1946-09-20	New York Yankees	T 17-17	1464.44	1568.10	34.67%	56.53%	+1.20	0-1
1946-09-25	Buffalo Bisons	W 38-35	1465.64	1398.73	58.29%	33.05%	+13.87	1-1
1946-09-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1479.51	1529.45	41.84%	49.00%	+47.69	2-1
1946-10-05	Los Angeles Dons	L 9-21	1527.20	1551.86	45.43%	45.37%	-37.40	2-2
1946-10-11	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 21-21	1489.80	1445.98	48.12%	42.70%	-0.29	2-2
1946-10-18	Miami Seahawks	W 28-7	1489.51	1359.92	66.31%	25.92%	+28.80	3-2
1946-10-27	@ Buffalo Bisons	L 17-49	1518.31	1373.52	62.00%	29.70%	-81.31	3-3
1946-11-02	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-21	1437.00	1456.90	46.11%	44.69%	-28.95	3-4
1946-11-11	@ Miami Seahawks	W 20-7	1408.05	1291.03	58.34%	33.00%	+28.82	4-4
1946-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-51	1436.87	1681.68	15.85%	78.51%	-22.94	4-5
1946-11-24	@ New York Yankees	W 38-28	1413.93	1628.47	18.13%	75.65%	+54.50	5-5
1946-11-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-14	1468.43	1613.64	24.33%	68.17%	-22.05	5-6
1946-12-15	@ Los Angeles Dons	T 17-17	1446.38	1521.82	32.01%	59.43%	+1.52	5-6
1946-09-06	Miami Seahawks	W 44-0	1500.00	1500.00	48.97%	41.87%	+66.46	1-0
1946-09-13	@ Chicago Rockets	W 20-6	1566.46	1500.00	51.35%	39.56%	+35.56	2-0
1946-09-22	@ Buffalo Bisons	W 28-0	1602.02	1433.48	64.99%	27.06%	+34.74	3-0
1946-09-29	New York Yankees	W 24-7	1636.76	1566.89	58.69%	32.69%	+32.65	4-0
1946-10-06	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 26-7	1669.41	1465.89	74.55%	19.03%	+19.92	5-0
1946-10-12	@ New York Yankees	W 7-0	1689.33	1554.43	60.71%	30.85%	+19.80	6-0
1946-10-20	Los Angeles Dons	W 31-14	1709.13	1548.85	69.90%	22.86%	+22.79	7-0
1946-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-34	1731.92	1538.17	73.54%	19.85%	-62.88	7-1
1946-11-03	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 16-17	1669.04	1486.64	66.68%	25.60%	-15.37	7-2
1946-11-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1653.67	1622.21	46.35%	44.45%	+28.01	8-2
1946-11-17	Chicago Rockets	W 51-14	1681.68	1436.87	78.51%	15.85%	+22.93	9-2
1946-11-24	Buffalo Bisons	W 42-17	1704.61	1414.98	82.29%	12.90%	+15.17	10-2
1946-12-03	@ Miami Seahawks	W 34-0	1719.78	1283.47	88.70%	8.05%	+10.78	11-2
1946-12-08	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 66-14	1730.56	1385.13	82.77%	12.54%	+21.23	12-2
1946-09-13	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 20-14	1500.00	1541.68	43.00%	47.82%	+27.71	1-0
1946-09-20	Miami Seahawks	W 30-14	1527.71	1408.92	64.99%	27.07%	+26.27	2-0
1946-09-29	@ Buffalo Bisons	T 21-21	1553.98	1384.87	65.06%	27.00%	-2.12	2-0
1946-10-05	@ Chicago Rockets	W 21-9	1551.86	1527.20	45.37%	45.43%	+37.40	3-0
1946-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-23	1589.26	1526.02	57.80%	33.50%	-40.41	3-1
1946-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-31	1548.85	1709.13	22.86%	69.90%	-22.80	3-2
1946-10-27	New York Yankees	L 17-31	1526.05	1559.16	44.22%	46.58%	-39.41	3-3
1946-11-03	Cleveland Browns	W 17-16	1486.64	1669.04	25.60%	66.68%	+15.37	4-3
1946-11-10	@ New York Yankees	L 12-17	1502.01	1603.50	28.97%	62.82%	-15.72	4-4
1946-11-17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 19-14	1486.29	1463.09	45.16%	45.64%	+24.24	5-4
1946-11-25	@ Miami Seahawks	W 34-21	1510.53	1303.67	69.55%	23.16%	+20.21	6-4
1946-12-01	Buffalo Bisons	W 62-14	1530.74	1399.81	66.47%	25.78%	+43.31	7-4
1946-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-48	1574.05	1635.69	33.70%	57.58%	-52.23	7-5
1946-12-15	Chicago Rockets	T 17-17	1521.82	1446.38	59.43%	32.01%	-1.52	7-5
1946-09-06	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-44	1500.00	1500.00	41.87%	48.97%	-66.46	0-1
1946-09-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1433.54	1456.74	38.69%	52.26%	-24.62	0-2
1946-09-20	@ Los Angeles Dons	L 14-30	1408.92	1527.71	27.07%	64.99%	-26.27	0-3
1946-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-34	1382.65	1481.75	35.25%	55.91%	-44.27	0-4
1946-10-11	@ Buffalo Bisons	W 17-14	1338.38	1366.80	37.99%	53.00%	+21.54	1-4
1946-10-18	@ Chicago Rockets	L 7-28	1359.92	1489.51	25.92%	66.31%	-28.81	1-5
1946-10-25	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-30	1331.11	1421.75	30.21%	61.43%	-35.15	1-6
1946-11-03	@ New York Yankees	L 21-24	1295.96	1598.57	12.13%	83.29%	-4.93	1-7
1946-11-11	Chicago Rockets	L 7-20	1291.03	1408.05	33.00%	58.34%	-28.82	1-8
1946-11-18	Buffalo Bisons	W 21-14	1262.21	1456.44	24.40%	68.08%	+41.46	2-8
1946-11-25	Los Angeles Dons	L 21-34	1303.67	1510.53	23.16%	69.55%	-20.20	2-9
1946-12-03	Cleveland Browns	L 0-34	1283.47	1719.78	8.05%	88.70%	-10.78	2-10
1946-12-09	New York Yankees	L 0-31	1272.69	1599.00	13.71%	81.25%	-18.01	2-11
1946-12-13	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 31-20	1254.68	1363.90	33.97%	57.29%	+44.31	3-11
1946-09-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1500.00	1500.00	41.87%	48.97%	+43.26	1-0
1946-09-14	Buffalo Bisons	W 21-10	1543.26	1458.32	60.68%	30.88%	+24.84	2-0
1946-09-20	@ Chicago Rockets	T 17-17	1568.10	1464.44	56.53%	34.67%	-1.21	2-0
1946-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-24	1566.89	1636.76	32.69%	58.69%	-32.65	2-1
1946-10-04	@ Buffalo Bisons	W 21-13	1534.24	1386.99	62.31%	29.42%	+20.19	3-1
1946-10-12	Cleveland Browns	L 0-7	1554.43	1689.33	30.85%	60.71%	-19.79	3-2
1946-10-19	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-10	1534.64	1446.27	61.13%	30.48%	+24.52	4-2
1946-10-27	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 31-17	1559.16	1526.05	46.58%	44.22%	+39.41	5-2
1946-11-03	Miami Seahawks	W 24-21	1598.57	1295.96	83.29%	12.13%	+4.93	6-2
1946-11-10	Los Angeles Dons	W 17-12	1603.50	1502.01	62.82%	28.97%	+15.72	7-2
1946-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-9	1619.22	1594.21	52.52%	38.44%	+9.25	8-2
1946-11-24	Chicago Rockets	L 28-38	1628.47	1413.93	75.65%	18.13%	-54.50	8-3
1946-11-28	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-7	1573.97	1410.17	64.41%	27.58%	+25.03	9-3
1946-12-09	@ Miami Seahawks	W 31-0	1599.00	1272.69	81.25%	13.71%	+18.02	10-3
1946-09-08	New York Yankees	L 7-21	1500.00	1500.00	48.97%	41.87%	-43.26	0-1
1946-09-15	Miami Seahawks	W 21-14	1456.74	1433.54	52.26%	38.69%	+24.63	1-1
1946-09-22	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 32-13	1481.37	1513.97	44.29%	46.51%	+48.08	2-1
1946-09-29	@ Chicago Rockets	L 7-24	1529.45	1479.51	49.00%	41.84%	-47.70	2-2
1946-10-08	@ Miami Seahawks	W 34-7	1481.75	1382.65	55.91%	35.25%	+44.27	3-2
1946-10-12	@ Los Angeles Dons	W 23-14	1526.02	1589.26	33.50%	57.80%	+40.40	4-2
1946-10-19	@ Buffalo Bisons	L 14-17	1566.42	1345.27	71.15%	21.82%	-28.25	4-3
1946-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-20	1538.17	1731.92	19.85%	73.54%	+62.88	5-3
1946-11-02	Buffalo Bisons	W 27-14	1601.05	1454.83	68.29%	24.23%	+21.16	6-3
1946-11-10	Cleveland Browns	L 7-14	1622.21	1653.67	44.45%	46.35%	-28.00	6-4
1946-11-17	@ New York Yankees	L 9-10	1594.21	1619.22	38.44%	52.52%	-9.26	6-5
1946-11-24	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 30-14	1584.95	1438.85	62.17%	29.55%	+28.69	7-5
1946-11-30	Chicago Rockets	W 14-0	1613.64	1468.43	68.17%	24.33%	+22.05	8-5
1946-12-08	Los Angeles Dons	W 48-7	1635.69	1574.05	57.58%	33.70%	+52.23	9-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-12-22	New York Yankees	W 14-9	1751.79	1617.02	71.48%	28.52%	+13.76	1-0
1946-12-22	@ Cleveland Browns	L 9-14	1617.02	1751.79	28.52%	71.48%	-13.77	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1946-11-24	18.13%	Chicago Rockets	1413.93	38	@ New York Yankees	1628.47	28
2	1946-10-27	19.85%	San Francisco 49ers	1538.17	34	@ Cleveland Browns	1731.92	20
3	1946-10-19	21.82%	@ Buffalo Bisons	1345.27	17	San Francisco 49ers	1566.42	14
4	1946-11-18	24.40%	@ Miami Seahawks	1262.21	21	Buffalo Bisons	1456.44	14
5	1946-11-03	25.60%	@ Los Angeles Dons	1486.64	17	Cleveland Browns	1669.04	16
6	1946-10-27	29.70%	@ Buffalo Bisons	1373.52	49	Chicago Rockets	1518.31	17
7	1946-10-12	33.50%	San Francisco 49ers	1526.02	23	@ Los Angeles Dons	1589.26	14
8	1946-12-13	33.97%	@ Miami Seahawks	1254.68	31	Brooklyn Dodgers	1363.90	20
9	1946-11-10	34.89%	Buffalo Bisons	1433.67	17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1485.86	14
10	1946-10-11	37.99%	Miami Seahawks	1338.38	17	@ Buffalo Bisons	1366.80	14
11	1946-09-29	41.84%	@ Chicago Rockets	1479.51	24	San Francisco 49ers	1529.45	7
12	1946-09-08	41.87%	New York Yankees	1500.00	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1500.00	7
13	1946-09-08	41.87%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1500.00	27	@ Buffalo Bisons	1500.00	14
14	1946-09-13	43.00%	@ Los Angeles Dons	1500.00	20	Brooklyn Dodgers	1541.68	14
15	1946-09-22	44.29%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1481.37	32	Brooklyn Dodgers	1513.97	13
16	1946-11-02	44.69%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1456.90	21	@ Chicago Rockets	1437.00	14
17	1946-11-17	45.16%	Los Angeles Dons	1486.29	19	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1463.09	14
18	1946-10-05	45.37%	Los Angeles Dons	1551.86	21	@ Chicago Rockets	1527.20	9

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1946-10-27	81.31	@ Buffalo Bisons	49	1373.52	29.70%	Chicago Rockets	17	1518.31	62.00%
2	1946-09-06	66.46	@ Cleveland Browns	44	1500.00	48.97%	Miami Seahawks	0	1500.00	41.87%
3	1946-10-27	62.88	San Francisco 49ers	34	1538.17	19.85%	@ Cleveland Browns	20	1731.92	73.54%
4	1946-11-24	54.50	Chicago Rockets	38	1413.93	18.13%	@ New York Yankees	28	1628.47	75.65%
5	1946-12-08	52.23	@ San Francisco 49ers	48	1635.69	57.58%	Los Angeles Dons	7	1574.05	33.70%
6	1946-09-22	48.08	@ San Francisco 49ers	32	1481.37	44.29%	Brooklyn Dodgers	13	1513.97	46.51%
7	1946-09-29	47.70	@ Chicago Rockets	24	1479.51	41.84%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1529.45	49.00%
8	1946-12-13	44.31	@ Miami Seahawks	31	1254.68	33.97%	Brooklyn Dodgers	20	1363.90	57.29%
9	1946-10-08	44.27	San Francisco 49ers	34	1481.75	55.91%	@ Miami Seahawks	7	1382.65	35.25%
10	1946-12-01	43.32	@ Los Angeles Dons	62	1530.74	66.47%	Buffalo Bisons	14	1399.81	25.78%
11	1946-09-08	43.26	New York Yankees	21	1500.00	41.87%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1500.00	48.97%
12	1946-09-08	41.68	Brooklyn Dodgers	27	1500.00	41.87%	@ Buffalo Bisons	14	1500.00	48.97%
13	1946-11-18	41.46	@ Miami Seahawks	21	1262.21	24.40%	Buffalo Bisons	14	1456.44	68.08%
14	1946-10-12	40.41	San Francisco 49ers	23	1526.02	33.50%	@ Los Angeles Dons	14	1589.26	57.80%
15	1946-10-27	39.41	New York Yankees	31	1559.16	46.58%	@ Los Angeles Dons	17	1526.05	44.22%
16	1946-10-05	37.40	Los Angeles Dons	21	1551.86	45.37%	@ Chicago Rockets	9	1527.20	45.43%
17	1946-09-13	35.56	Cleveland Browns	20	1566.46	51.35%	@ Chicago Rockets	6	1500.00	39.56%
18	1946-10-25	35.15	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	30	1421.75	61.43%	Miami Seahawks	7	1331.11	30.21%
19	1946-09-22	34.75	Cleveland Browns	28	1602.02	64.99%	@ Buffalo Bisons	0	1433.48	27.06%
20	1946-09-29	32.65	@ Cleveland Browns	24	1636.76	58.69%	New York Yankees	7	1566.89	32.69%
21	1946-11-02	28.96	Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1456.90	44.69%	@ Chicago Rockets	14	1437.00	46.11%
22	1946-11-11	28.82	Chicago Rockets	20	1408.05	58.34%	@ Miami Seahawks	7	1291.03	33.00%
23	1946-10-18	28.81	@ Chicago Rockets	28	1489.51	66.31%	Miami Seahawks	7	1359.92	25.92%
24	1946-11-24	28.69	San Francisco 49ers	30	1584.95	62.17%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	14	1438.85	29.55%
25	1946-10-19	28.25	@ Buffalo Bisons	17	1345.27	21.82%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1566.42	71.15%