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1947 →

1946 AAFC Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns

1st Title

Runner-Up

New York Yankees

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns

4.45 wins above expected

12 wins · 7.55 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Miami Seahawks

3.53 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.53 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Yankees Division 10 3 1 .750 — 270 192 +78 7.29 +3.21
2 Buffalo Bisons 3 10 1 .250 7 249 370 -121 6.68 -3.18
3 Brooklyn Dodgers 3 10 1 .250 7 226 339 -113 6.86 -3.36
4 Miami Seahawks 3 11 0 .214 7.5 167 378 -211 6.53 -3.53
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Cleveland Browns Division 12 2 0 .857 — 423 137 +286 7.55 +4.45
2 San Francisco 49ers 9 5 0 .643 3 307 189 +118 7.10 +1.90
3 Los Angeles Dons 7 5 2 .571 4 305 290 +15 7.06 +0.94
4 Chicago Rockets 5 6 3 .464 5.5 263 315 -52 6.93 -0.43

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AAFC Championship Game

Cleveland Browns 14
New York Yankees 9

Dec 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cleveland Browns West 1554 12 7.55 +4.45 99.95% 0 4 6 7 8 10 14
San Francisco 49ers West 1526 9 7.10 +1.90 94.90% 1 3 5 6 8 10 13
New York Yankees East 1523 10.5 7.29 +3.21 99.69% 1 4 5 7 8 10 13
Los Angeles Dons West 1504 8 7.06 +0.94 95.30% 0 3 5 6 8 9 13
Chicago Rockets West 1491 6.5 6.93 -0.43 88.38% 0 3 5 6 8 9 12
Brooklyn Dodgers East 1472 3.5 6.86 -3.36 17.47% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Buffalo Bisons East 1471 3.5 6.68 -3.18 19.85% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
Miami Seahawks East 1457 3 6.53 -3.53 9.56% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Dodgers Bisons Seahawks Yankees
Brooklyn Dodgers —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bisons
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Miami Seahawks
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
New York Yankees
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Rockets Browns Dons 49ers
Brooklyn Dodgers
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bisons
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Miami Seahawks
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
New York Yankees
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)

Within West

Team Rockets Browns Dons 49ers
Chicago Rockets —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Dodgers Bisons Seahawks Yankees
Chicago Rockets
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Dons
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Cleveland Browns 12 7.55 +4.45
2 New York Yankees 10.5 7.29 +3.21
3 San Francisco 49ers 9 7.10 +1.90
4 Los Angeles Dons 8 7.06 +0.94
5 Chicago Rockets 6.5 6.93 -0.43

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Miami Seahawks 3 6.53 -3.53
2 Brooklyn Dodgers 3.5 6.86 -3.36
3 Buffalo Bisons 3.5 6.68 -3.18
4 Chicago Rockets 6.5 6.93 -0.43
5 Los Angeles Dons 8 7.06 +0.94

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cleveland Browns 7 Sep 6 – Oct 20 1 in 174
2 New York Yankees 5 Oct 19 – Nov 17 1 in 34
3 Los Angeles Dons 3 Nov 17 – Dec 1 1 in 10
4 San Francisco 49ers 3 Nov 24 – Dec 8 1 in 9
5 Buffalo Bisons 2 Oct 19 – Oct 27 1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brooklyn Dodgers 6 Nov 10 – Dec 13 1 in 126
2 Buffalo Bisons 4 Sep 8 – Sep 25 1 in 21
3 Miami Seahawks 4 Sep 6 – Oct 8 1 in 19
4 Los Angeles Dons 3 Oct 12 – Oct 27 1 in 11
5 Cleveland Browns 2 Oct 27 – Nov 3 1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AAFC view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
New York Yankees33.47%27.20%22.29%17.04%
Brooklyn Dodgers25.13%25.08%25.26%24.53%
Buffalo Bisons21.81%24.29%26.65%27.25%
Miami Seahawks19.59%23.43%25.80%31.18%
Team1234
Cleveland Browns32.89%26.18%22.69%18.24%
San Francisco 49ers23.03%25.72%25.22%26.03%
Los Angeles Dons22.78%24.74%26.10%26.38%
Chicago Rockets21.30%23.36%25.99%29.35%
Team12345678
Cleveland Browns19.35%15.75%14.44%13.00%10.94%10.11%8.90%7.51%
New York Yankees14.81%14.79%13.51%13.45%12.27%11.60%10.32%9.25%
San Francisco 49ers12.69%13.68%13.18%12.78%12.26%11.87%12.36%11.18%
Los Angeles Dons13.29%12.61%13.27%12.32%12.14%12.63%11.86%11.88%
Chicago Rockets11.89%11.81%11.78%12.45%13.60%12.56%12.78%13.13%
Brooklyn Dodgers10.93%11.74%11.63%12.42%12.63%13.07%13.94%13.64%
Buffalo Bisons9.24%10.16%11.14%11.88%13.09%14.48%14.68%15.33%
Miami Seahawks7.80%9.46%11.05%11.70%13.07%13.68%15.16%18.08%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
New York Yankees33.47%66.53%
Brooklyn Dodgers25.13%74.87%
Buffalo Bisons21.81%78.19%
Miami Seahawks19.59%80.41%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns32.89%67.11%
San Francisco 49ers23.03%76.97%
Los Angeles Dons22.78%77.22%
Chicago Rockets21.30%78.70%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Cleveland Browns 32.89% 19.68%
New York Yankees 33.47% 16.49%
San Francisco 49ers 23.03% 13.09%
Los Angeles Dons 22.78% 12.29%
Chicago Rockets 21.30% 10.57%
Brooklyn Dodgers 25.13% 10.52%
Buffalo Bisons 21.81% 9.31%
Miami Seahawks 19.59% 8.05%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Brooklyn DodgersBuffalo BisonsChicago RocketsCleveland BrownsLos Angeles DonsMiami SeahawksNew York YankeesSan Francisco 49ers
Brooklyn Dodgers2.48%2.97%2.58%2.49%
Buffalo Bisons2.31%2.68%2.08%2.24%
Chicago Rockets2.87%2.40%2.35%2.95%
Cleveland Browns5.14%4.46%3.95%6.13%
Los Angeles Dons3.35%2.74%2.37%3.83%
Miami Seahawks2.09%2.31%2.01%1.64%
New York Yankees3.85%5.25%3.82%3.57%
San Francisco 49ers3.25%2.90%2.87%4.07%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Cleveland Browns 57.98% Won Championship Game
New York Yankees 42.02% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Cleveland BrownsNew York Yankees
Cleveland Browns57.98%
New York Yankees42.02%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Cleveland Browns 57.98% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. New York Yankees
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
57.98%
New York Yankees 42.02% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Cleveland Browns
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
42.02%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1946-09-08 @ Buffalo Bisons W 27-14 1500.00 1500.00 41.86% 48.96% +4.48 1-0
1946-09-13 @ Los Angeles Dons L 14-20 1504.48 1500.00 42.49% 48.32% -2.67 1-1
1946-09-22 @ San Francisco 49ers L 13-32 1501.81 1498.18 42.37% 48.44% -4.75 1-2
1946-10-06 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-26 1497.06 1522.24 38.39% 52.51% -4.33 1-3
1946-10-11 Chicago Rockets T 21-21 1492.73 1497.50 48.28% 42.54% -0.04 1-3
1946-10-19 @ New York Yankees L 10-21 1492.69 1504.05 40.28% 50.57% -3.45 1-4
1946-10-25 Miami Seahawks W 30-7 1489.24 1477.11 50.68% 40.17% +4.98 2-4
1946-11-02 @ Chicago Rockets W 21-14 1494.22 1495.73 41.65% 49.18% +3.30 3-4
1946-11-10 Buffalo Bisons L 14-17 1497.52 1483.46 50.95% 39.91% -2.23 3-5
1946-11-17 Los Angeles Dons L 14-19 1495.29 1497.42 48.66% 42.16% -2.77 3-6
1946-11-24 San Francisco 49ers L 14-30 1492.52 1510.74 46.35% 44.45% -4.73 3-7
1946-11-28 New York Yankees L 7-21 1487.79 1512.89 45.36% 45.43% -4.33 3-8
1946-12-08 Cleveland Browns L 14-66 1483.46 1546.99 39.94% 50.92% -7.44 3-9
1946-12-13 @ Miami Seahawks L 20-31 1476.02 1453.56 45.05% 45.74% -3.82 3-10
1946-09-08 Brooklyn Dodgers L 14-27 1500.00 1500.00 48.96% 41.86% -4.48 0-1
1946-09-14 @ New York Yankees L 10-21 1495.52 1504.65 40.59% 50.26% -3.47 0-2
1946-09-22 Cleveland Browns L 0-28 1492.05 1511.71 46.15% 44.65% -6.23 0-3
1946-09-25 @ Chicago Rockets L 35-38 1485.82 1495.42 40.53% 50.32% -1.81 0-4
1946-09-29 Los Angeles Dons T 21-21 1484.01 1506.82 45.69% 45.10% -0.01 0-4
1946-10-04 New York Yankees L 13-21 1484.00 1503.84 46.12% 44.68% -3.33 0-5
1946-10-11 Miami Seahawks L 14-17 1480.67 1479.64 49.11% 41.72% -2.15 0-6
1946-10-19 San Francisco 49ers W 17-14 1478.52 1508.44 44.67% 46.13% +2.03 1-6
1946-10-27 Chicago Rockets W 49-17 1480.55 1502.23 45.86% 44.94% +6.51 2-6
1946-11-02 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-27 1487.06 1511.39 38.51% 52.39% -3.60 2-7
1946-11-10 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 17-14 1483.46 1497.52 39.91% 50.95% +2.24 3-7
1946-11-18 @ Miami Seahawks L 14-21 1485.70 1466.28 44.62% 46.18% -3.03 3-8
1946-11-24 @ Cleveland Browns L 17-42 1482.67 1536.71 34.59% 56.47% -4.50 3-9
1946-12-01 @ Los Angeles Dons L 14-62 1478.17 1504.29 38.27% 52.64% -6.87 3-10
1946-09-13 Cleveland Browns L 6-20 1500.00 1507.14 47.94% 42.87% -4.56 0-1
1946-09-20 New York Yankees T 17-17 1495.44 1508.12 47.15% 43.66% -0.02 0-1
1946-09-25 Buffalo Bisons W 38-35 1495.42 1485.82 50.32% 40.53% +1.81 1-1
1946-09-29 San Francisco 49ers W 24-7 1497.23 1502.93 48.15% 42.67% +4.52 2-1
1946-10-05 Los Angeles Dons L 9-21 1501.75 1506.82 48.24% 42.58% -4.25 2-2
1946-10-11 @ Brooklyn Dodgers T 21-21 1497.50 1492.73 42.54% 48.28% +0.03 2-2
1946-10-18 Miami Seahawks W 28-7 1497.53 1481.80 51.19% 39.68% +4.70 3-2
1946-10-27 @ Buffalo Bisons L 17-49 1502.23 1480.55 44.94% 45.86% -6.50 3-3
1946-11-02 Brooklyn Dodgers L 14-21 1495.73 1494.22 49.18% 41.65% -3.30 3-4
1946-11-11 @ Miami Seahawks W 20-7 1492.43 1470.49 44.98% 45.82% +4.22 4-4
1946-11-17 @ Cleveland Browns L 14-51 1496.65 1530.84 37.18% 53.76% -5.87 4-5
1946-11-24 @ New York Yankees W 38-28 1490.78 1517.10 38.24% 52.67% +4.20 5-5
1946-11-30 @ San Francisco 49ers L 0-14 1494.98 1515.47 39.03% 51.85% -3.77 5-6
1946-12-15 @ Los Angeles Dons T 17-17 1491.21 1504.43 40.02% 50.83% +0.06 5-6
1946-09-06 Miami Seahawks W 44-0 1500.00 1500.00 48.96% 41.86% +7.14 1-0
1946-09-13 @ Chicago Rockets W 20-6 1507.14 1500.00 42.87% 47.94% +4.57 2-0
1946-09-22 @ Buffalo Bisons W 28-0 1511.71 1492.05 44.65% 46.15% +6.23 3-0
1946-09-29 New York Yankees W 24-7 1517.94 1508.14 50.35% 40.50% +4.30 4-0
1946-10-06 Brooklyn Dodgers W 26-7 1522.24 1497.06 52.51% 38.39% +4.34 5-0
1946-10-12 @ New York Yankees W 7-0 1526.58 1507.16 44.62% 46.18% +3.11 6-0
1946-10-20 Los Angeles Dons W 31-14 1529.69 1507.27 52.12% 38.77% +4.14 7-0
1946-10-27 San Francisco 49ers L 20-34 1533.83 1506.40 52.82% 38.09% -4.99 7-1
1946-11-03 @ Los Angeles Dons L 16-17 1528.84 1498.54 46.18% 44.62% -1.18 7-2
1946-11-10 @ San Francisco 49ers W 14-7 1527.66 1514.98 43.66% 47.15% +3.18 8-2
1946-11-17 Chicago Rockets W 51-14 1530.84 1496.65 53.76% 37.18% +5.87 9-2
1946-11-24 Buffalo Bisons W 42-17 1536.71 1482.67 56.47% 34.59% +4.50 10-2
1946-12-03 @ Miami Seahawks W 34-0 1541.21 1465.19 52.67% 38.24% +5.78 11-2
1946-12-08 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 66-14 1546.99 1483.46 50.92% 39.94% +7.44 12-2
1946-09-13 Brooklyn Dodgers W 20-14 1500.00 1504.48 48.32% 42.49% +2.67 1-0
1946-09-20 Miami Seahawks W 30-14 1502.67 1490.03 50.75% 40.10% +4.15 2-0
1946-09-29 @ Buffalo Bisons T 21-21 1506.82 1484.01 45.10% 45.69% +0.00 2-0
1946-10-05 @ Chicago Rockets W 21-9 1506.82 1501.75 42.58% 48.24% +4.25 3-0
1946-10-12 San Francisco 49ers L 14-23 1511.07 1504.65 49.87% 40.97% -3.80 3-1
1946-10-20 @ Cleveland Browns L 14-31 1507.27 1529.69 38.77% 52.12% -4.13 3-2
1946-10-27 New York Yankees L 17-31 1503.14 1507.49 48.34% 42.48% -4.60 3-3
1946-11-03 Cleveland Browns W 17-16 1498.54 1528.84 44.62% 46.18% +1.18 4-3
1946-11-10 @ New York Yankees L 12-17 1499.72 1513.73 39.92% 50.94% -2.30 4-4
1946-11-17 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 19-14 1497.42 1495.29 42.16% 48.66% +2.76 5-4
1946-11-25 @ Miami Seahawks W 34-21 1500.18 1469.30 46.26% 44.53% +4.11 6-4
1946-12-01 Buffalo Bisons W 62-14 1504.29 1478.17 52.64% 38.27% +6.86 7-4
1946-12-08 @ San Francisco 49ers L 7-48 1511.15 1519.25 40.73% 50.11% -6.72 7-5
1946-12-15 Chicago Rockets T 17-17 1504.43 1491.21 50.83% 40.02% -0.06 7-5
1946-09-06 @ Cleveland Browns L 0-44 1500.00 1500.00 41.86% 48.96% -7.14 0-1
1946-09-15 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-21 1492.86 1495.35 41.51% 49.31% -2.83 0-2
1946-09-20 @ Los Angeles Dons L 14-30 1490.03 1502.67 40.10% 50.75% -4.14 0-3
1946-10-08 San Francisco 49ers L 7-34 1485.89 1498.41 47.17% 43.63% -6.25 0-4
1946-10-11 @ Buffalo Bisons W 17-14 1479.64 1480.67 41.72% 49.11% +2.16 1-4
1946-10-18 @ Chicago Rockets L 7-28 1481.80 1497.53 39.68% 51.19% -4.69 1-5
1946-10-25 @ Brooklyn Dodgers L 7-30 1477.11 1489.24 40.17% 50.68% -4.98 1-6
1946-11-03 @ New York Yankees L 21-24 1472.13 1512.09 36.42% 54.55% -1.64 1-7
1946-11-11 Chicago Rockets L 7-20 1470.49 1492.43 45.82% 44.98% -4.21 1-8
1946-11-18 Buffalo Bisons W 21-14 1466.28 1485.70 46.18% 44.62% +3.02 2-8
1946-11-25 Los Angeles Dons L 21-34 1469.30 1500.18 44.53% 46.26% -4.11 2-9
1946-12-03 Cleveland Browns L 0-34 1465.19 1541.21 38.24% 52.67% -5.78 2-10
1946-12-09 New York Yankees L 0-31 1459.41 1517.23 40.73% 50.11% -5.85 2-11
1946-12-13 Brooklyn Dodgers W 31-20 1453.56 1476.02 45.74% 45.05% +3.83 3-11
1946-09-08 @ San Francisco 49ers W 21-7 1500.00 1500.00 41.86% 48.96% +4.65 1-0
1946-09-14 Buffalo Bisons W 21-10 1504.65 1495.52 50.26% 40.59% +3.47 2-0
1946-09-20 @ Chicago Rockets T 17-17 1508.12 1495.44 43.66% 47.15% +0.02 2-0
1946-09-29 @ Cleveland Browns L 7-24 1508.14 1517.94 40.50% 50.35% -4.30 2-1
1946-10-04 @ Buffalo Bisons W 21-13 1503.84 1484.00 44.68% 46.12% +3.32 3-1
1946-10-12 Cleveland Browns L 0-7 1507.16 1526.58 46.18% 44.62% -3.11 3-2
1946-10-19 Brooklyn Dodgers W 21-10 1504.05 1492.69 50.57% 40.28% +3.44 4-2
1946-10-27 @ Los Angeles Dons W 31-17 1507.49 1503.14 42.48% 48.34% +4.60 5-2
1946-11-03 Miami Seahawks W 24-21 1512.09 1472.13 54.55% 36.42% +1.64 6-2
1946-11-10 Los Angeles Dons W 17-12 1513.73 1499.72 50.94% 39.92% +2.30 7-2
1946-11-17 San Francisco 49ers W 10-9 1516.03 1511.81 49.56% 41.27% +1.07 8-2
1946-11-24 Chicago Rockets L 28-38 1517.10 1490.78 52.67% 38.24% -4.21 8-3
1946-11-28 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 21-7 1512.89 1487.79 45.43% 45.36% +4.34 9-3
1946-12-09 @ Miami Seahawks W 31-0 1517.23 1459.41 50.11% 40.73% +5.85 10-3
1946-09-08 New York Yankees L 7-21 1500.00 1500.00 48.96% 41.86% -4.65 0-1
1946-09-15 Miami Seahawks W 21-14 1495.35 1492.86 49.31% 41.51% +2.83 1-1
1946-09-22 Brooklyn Dodgers W 32-13 1498.18 1501.81 48.44% 42.37% +4.75 2-1
1946-09-29 @ Chicago Rockets L 7-24 1502.93 1497.23 42.67% 48.15% -4.52 2-2
1946-10-08 @ Miami Seahawks W 34-7 1498.41 1485.89 43.63% 47.17% +6.24 3-2
1946-10-12 @ Los Angeles Dons W 23-14 1504.65 1511.07 40.97% 49.87% +3.79 4-2
1946-10-19 @ Buffalo Bisons L 14-17 1508.44 1478.52 46.13% 44.67% -2.04 4-3
1946-10-27 @ Cleveland Browns W 34-20 1506.40 1533.83 38.09% 52.82% +4.99 5-3
1946-11-02 Buffalo Bisons W 27-14 1511.39 1487.06 52.39% 38.51% +3.59 6-3
1946-11-10 Cleveland Browns L 7-14 1514.98 1527.66 47.15% 43.66% -3.17 6-4
1946-11-17 @ New York Yankees L 9-10 1511.81 1516.03 41.27% 49.56% -1.07 6-5
1946-11-24 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 30-14 1510.74 1492.52 44.45% 46.35% +4.73 7-5
1946-11-30 Chicago Rockets W 14-0 1515.47 1494.98 51.85% 39.03% +3.78 8-5
1946-12-08 Los Angeles Dons W 48-7 1519.25 1511.15 50.11% 40.73% +6.73 9-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1946-12-22 New York Yankees W 14-9 1554.43 1523.08 58.02% 41.98% +2.17 1-0
1946-12-22 @ Cleveland Browns L 9-14 1523.08 1554.43 41.98% 58.02% -2.18 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1946-10-27 38.09% San Francisco 49ers 1506.40 34 @ Cleveland Browns 1533.83 20
2 1946-11-24 38.24% Chicago Rockets 1490.78 38 @ New York Yankees 1517.10 28
3 1946-11-10 39.91% Buffalo Bisons 1483.46 17 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 1497.52 14
4 1946-10-12 40.97% San Francisco 49ers 1504.65 23 @ Los Angeles Dons 1511.07 14
5 1946-11-02 41.65% Brooklyn Dodgers 1494.22 21 @ Chicago Rockets 1495.73 14
6 1946-10-11 41.72% Miami Seahawks 1479.64 17 @ Buffalo Bisons 1480.67 14
7 1946-09-08 41.86% New York Yankees 1500.00 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 1500.00 7
8 1946-09-08 41.86% Brooklyn Dodgers 1500.00 27 @ Buffalo Bisons 1500.00 14
9 1946-11-17 42.16% Los Angeles Dons 1497.42 19 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 1495.29 14
10 1946-10-27 42.48% New York Yankees 1507.49 31 @ Los Angeles Dons 1503.14 17
11 1946-10-05 42.58% Los Angeles Dons 1506.82 21 @ Chicago Rockets 1501.75 9
12 1946-09-13 42.87% Cleveland Browns 1507.14 20 @ Chicago Rockets 1500.00 6
13 1946-10-08 43.63% San Francisco 49ers 1498.41 34 @ Miami Seahawks 1485.89 7
14 1946-11-10 43.66% Cleveland Browns 1527.66 14 @ San Francisco 49ers 1514.98 7
15 1946-11-24 44.45% San Francisco 49ers 1510.74 30 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 1492.52 14
16 1946-10-12 44.62% Cleveland Browns 1526.58 7 @ New York Yankees 1507.16 0
17 1946-11-03 44.62% @ Los Angeles Dons 1498.54 17 Cleveland Browns 1528.84 16
18 1946-09-22 44.65% Cleveland Browns 1511.71 28 @ Buffalo Bisons 1492.05 0
19 1946-10-19 44.67% @ Buffalo Bisons 1478.52 17 San Francisco 49ers 1508.44 14
20 1946-10-04 44.68% New York Yankees 1503.84 21 @ Buffalo Bisons 1484.00 13
21 1946-11-11 44.98% Chicago Rockets 1492.43 20 @ Miami Seahawks 1470.49 7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1946-12-08 7.44 Cleveland Browns 66 1546.99 50.92% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 14 1483.46 39.94%
2 1946-09-06 7.14 @ Cleveland Browns 44 1500.00 48.96% Miami Seahawks 0 1500.00 41.86%
3 1946-12-01 6.87 @ Los Angeles Dons 62 1504.29 52.64% Buffalo Bisons 14 1478.17 38.27%
4 1946-12-08 6.73 @ San Francisco 49ers 48 1519.25 50.11% Los Angeles Dons 7 1511.15 40.73%
5 1946-10-27 6.51 @ Buffalo Bisons 49 1480.55 45.86% Chicago Rockets 17 1502.23 44.94%
6 1946-10-08 6.25 San Francisco 49ers 34 1498.41 43.63% @ Miami Seahawks 7 1485.89 47.17%
7 1946-09-22 6.23 Cleveland Browns 28 1511.71 44.65% @ Buffalo Bisons 0 1492.05 46.15%
8 1946-11-17 5.87 @ Cleveland Browns 51 1530.84 53.76% Chicago Rockets 14 1496.65 37.18%
9 1946-12-09 5.85 New York Yankees 31 1517.23 50.11% @ Miami Seahawks 0 1459.41 40.73%
10 1946-12-03 5.78 Cleveland Browns 34 1541.21 52.67% @ Miami Seahawks 0 1465.19 38.24%
11 1946-10-27 4.99 San Francisco 49ers 34 1506.40 38.09% @ Cleveland Browns 20 1533.83 52.82%
12 1946-10-25 4.98 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 30 1489.24 50.68% Miami Seahawks 7 1477.11 40.17%
13 1946-09-22 4.75 @ San Francisco 49ers 32 1498.18 48.44% Brooklyn Dodgers 13 1501.81 42.37%
14 1946-11-24 4.73 San Francisco 49ers 30 1510.74 44.45% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 14 1492.52 46.35%
15 1946-10-18 4.70 @ Chicago Rockets 28 1497.53 51.19% Miami Seahawks 7 1481.80 39.68%
16 1946-09-08 4.65 New York Yankees 21 1500.00 41.86% @ San Francisco 49ers 7 1500.00 48.96%
17 1946-10-27 4.60 New York Yankees 31 1507.49 42.48% @ Los Angeles Dons 17 1503.14 48.34%
18 1946-09-13 4.57 Cleveland Browns 20 1507.14 42.87% @ Chicago Rockets 6 1500.00 47.94%
19 1946-09-29 4.52 @ Chicago Rockets 24 1497.23 48.15% San Francisco 49ers 7 1502.93 42.67%
20 1946-11-24 4.50 @ Cleveland Browns 42 1536.71 56.47% Buffalo Bisons 17 1482.67 34.59%
21 1946-09-08 4.48 Brooklyn Dodgers 27 1500.00 41.86% @ Buffalo Bisons 14 1500.00 48.96%
22 1946-10-06 4.34 @ Cleveland Browns 26 1522.24 52.51% Brooklyn Dodgers 7 1497.06 38.39%
23 1946-11-28 4.34 New York Yankees 21 1512.89 45.43% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 7 1487.79 45.36%
24 1946-09-29 4.30 @ Cleveland Browns 24 1517.94 50.35% New York Yankees 7 1508.14 40.50%
25 1946-10-05 4.25 Los Angeles Dons 21 1506.82 42.58% @ Chicago Rockets 9 1501.75 48.24%