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2007 WNBA Season

221 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Phoenix Mercury

1st Title

Runner-Up

Detroit Shock

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 2006

Biggest Overachiever

San Antonio Silver Stars

3.88 wins above expected

20 wins · 16.12 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Los Angeles Sparks

6.89 wins below expected

10 wins · 16.89 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Detroit Shock League 24 10 .706 - 79.3 74.7 +4.6 22.31 +1.69
2 Indiana Fever Playoffs 21 13 .618 3 72.9 69.7 +3.2 19.60 +1.40
3 Connecticut Sun Playoffs 18 16 .529 6 78.7 76.3 +2.4 20.04 -2.04
4 New York Liberty Playoffs 16 18 .471 8 71.0 73.6 -2.6 14.03 +1.97
5 Washington Mystics 16 18 .471 8 76.0 77.6 -1.6 15.69 +0.31
6 Chicago Sky 14 20 .412 10 74.3 76.8 -2.5 11.01 +2.99
# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Phoenix Mercury League 23 11 .676 - 89.0 85.4 +3.6 19.42 +3.58
2 San Antonio Silver Stars Playoffs 20 14 .588 3 74.0 73.1 +1.0 16.12 +3.88
3 Sacramento Monarchs Playoffs 19 15 .559 4 74.3 72.9 +1.4 21.03 -2.03
4 Seattle Storm Playoffs 17 17 .500 6 80.4 77.9 +2.6 18.30 -1.30
5 Houston Comets 13 21 .382 10 73.8 77.3 -3.5 14.68 -1.68
6 Minnesota Lynx 10 24 .294 13 77.5 80.9 -3.4 11.87 -1.87
7 Los Angeles Sparks 10 24 .294 13 74.5 79.6 -5.1 16.89 -6.89

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Conference Semifinals

Indiana Fever 2
Connecticut Sun 1

3 games · Aug 23–Aug 27

Detroit Shock 2
New York Liberty 1

3 games · Aug 24–Aug 28

Conference Final

Detroit Shock 2
Indiana Fever 1

3 games · Aug 31–Sep 3

Western Conference

Conference Semifinals

San Antonio Silver Stars 2
Sacramento Monarchs 1

3 games · Aug 23–Aug 27

Phoenix Mercury 2
Seattle Storm 0

2 games · Aug 24–Aug 26

Conference Final

Phoenix Mercury 2
San Antonio Silver Stars 0

2 games · Aug 30–Sep 1

WNBA Finals

Phoenix Mercury 3
Detroit Shock 2

5 games · Sep 5–Sep 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Detroit Shock Eastern 1610 24 22.31 +1.69 78.96% 6 18 21 22 24 27 33
Phoenix Mercury Western 1576 23 19.42 +3.58 92.83% 8 15 18 19 21 24 32
Connecticut Sun Eastern 1573 18 20.04 -2.04 28.75% 8 15 18 20 22 25 31
Indiana Fever Eastern 1553 21 19.60 +1.40 74.82% 6 15 18 20 22 24 30
Sacramento Monarchs Western 1551 19 21.03 -2.03 28.89% 10 16 19 21 23 26 32
Seattle Storm Western 1523 17 18.30 -1.30 38.83% 6 14 16 18 20 23 30
San Antonio Silver Stars Western 1495 20 16.12 +3.88 93.73% 4 11 14 16 18 21 29
Washington Mystics Eastern 1485 16 15.69 +0.31 61.25% 4 11 14 16 18 20 28
Houston Comets Western 1462 13 14.68 -1.68 34.07% 2 10 13 15 17 19 26
New York Liberty Eastern 1436 16 14.03 +1.97 81.21% 3 10 12 14 16 19 26
Los Angeles Sparks Western 1424 10 16.89 -6.89 1.17% 4 12 15 17 19 22 28
Minnesota Lynx Western 1408 10 11.87 -1.87 31.12% 1 8 10 12 14 16 25
Chicago Sky Eastern 1404 14 11.01 +2.99 90.12% 1 7 9 11 13 16 23

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Eastern

Team Sky Sun Shock Fever Liberty Mystics
Chicago Sky —
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
1-3
(0.9 exp.)
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
1-3
(1.6 exp.)
Connecticut Sun
3-1
(2.9 exp.)
 —
0-4
(1.7 exp.)
4-0
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(2.7 exp.)
1-3
(2.5 exp.)
Detroit Shock
3-1
(3.1 exp.)
4-0
(2.3 exp.)
 —
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
2-2
(2.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.7 exp.)
Indiana Fever
3-1
(2.9 exp.)
0-4
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
 —
3-1
(2.6 exp.)
4-0
(2.5 exp.)
New York Liberty
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
2-2
(1.3 exp.)
2-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.4 exp.)
 —
3-1
(1.8 exp.)
Washington Mystics
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
3-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-3
(1.3 exp.)
0-4
(1.5 exp.)
1-3
(2.2 exp.)
 —

Eastern vs. Outside Teams

Team Comets Sparks Lynx Mercury Monarchs Stars Storm
Chicago Sky
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Connecticut Sun
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
Detroit Shock
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
Indiana Fever
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
New York Liberty
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Washington Mystics
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)

Within Western

Team Comets Sparks Lynx Mercury Monarchs Stars Storm
Houston Comets —
3-1
(1.7 exp.)
3-0
(1.7 exp.)
0-4
(1.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Sparks
1-3
(2.3 exp.)
 —
2-2
(2.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
0-3
(1.4 exp.)
0-4
(1.8 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx
0-3
(1.3 exp.)
2-2
(1.4 exp.)
 —
1-3
(1.2 exp.)
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-2
(1.3 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
4-0
(2.4 exp.)
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.8 exp.)
 —
4-0
(1.8 exp.)
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
1-2
(1.5 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
2-1
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
3-1
(2.9 exp.)
0-4
(2.2 exp.)
 —
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
3-0
(1.8 exp.)
San Antonio Silver Stars
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
3-0
(1.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.9 exp.)
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
 —
4-0
(1.7 exp.)
Seattle Storm
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
4-0
(2.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.7 exp.)
2-1
(1.5 exp.)
0-3
(1.2 exp.)
0-4
(2.3 exp.)
 —

Western vs. Outside Teams

Team Sky Sun Shock Fever Liberty Mystics
Houston Comets
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Sparks
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
San Antonio Silver Stars
0-2
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Seattle Storm
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50—0.23%——0.23%——0.45%
50–590.23%1.81%1.81%1.36%1.13%——6.33%
60–69—1.81%4.07%8.37%3.17%0.45%—17.87%
70–79—1.36%8.37%14.48%11.31%2.26%0.23%38.01%
80–890.23%1.13%3.17%11.31%5.88%3.17%1.13%26.02%
90–99——0.45%2.26%3.17%1.36%0.68%7.92%
100+———0.23%1.13%0.68%1.36%3.39%
Total0.45%6.33%17.87%38.01%26.02%7.92%3.39%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.60 76.60 +0.00
SD 11.35 11.35 11.52
CV 0.15 0.15 —
Max 111 111 +35
Min 46 46 -35

Games Played: 221

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59—5.88%—2.94%———8.82%
60–69——5.88%5.88%11.76%——23.53%
70–79——8.82%17.65%5.88%2.94%—35.29%
80–89———14.71%2.94%5.88%—23.53%
90–99————2.94%2.94%2.94%8.82%
100+————————
Total—5.88%14.71%41.18%23.53%11.76%2.94%100%

Chicago Sky — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.26 76.79 -2.53
SD 11.35 11.56 10.58
CV 0.15 0.15 —
Max 97 102 +18
Min 52 54 -22

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59———2.94%———2.94%
60–69——5.88%2.94%2.94%——11.76%
70–79—5.88%8.82%29.41%5.88%2.94%—52.94%
80–89—2.94%2.94%11.76%2.94%2.94%—23.53%
90–99————————
100+————2.94%2.94%2.94%8.82%
Total—8.82%17.65%47.06%14.71%8.82%2.94%100%

Connecticut Sun — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 78.68 76.26 +2.41
SD 11.41 11.66 10.71
CV 0.15 0.15 —
Max 110 111 +25
Min 58 56 -20

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69—5.88%5.88%8.82%———20.59%
70–79——11.76%17.65%11.76%——41.18%
80–89———8.82%14.71%——23.53%
90–99———5.88%5.88%——11.76%
100+————2.94%——2.94%
Total—5.88%17.65%41.18%35.29%——100%

Detroit Shock — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 79.32 74.71 +4.62
SD 10.46 8.39 9.32
CV 0.13 0.11 —
Max 111 88 +29
Min 64 57 -10

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——2.94%2.94%2.94%——8.82%
60–69—2.94%5.88%2.94%5.88%——17.65%
70–79——8.82%14.71%17.65%2.94%—44.12%
80–89———20.59%—2.94%2.94%26.47%
90–99————2.94%——2.94%
100+————————
Total—2.94%17.65%41.18%29.41%5.88%2.94%100%

Houston Comets — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 73.82 77.29 -3.47
SD 8.94 10.32 10.94
CV 0.12 0.13 —
Max 95 111 +12
Min 55 56 -26

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59—5.88%2.94%—2.94%——11.76%
60–69—5.88%5.88%11.76%———23.53%
70–79——17.65%14.71%8.82%——41.18%
80–89—2.94%5.88%8.82%2.94%——20.59%
90–99——2.94%————2.94%
100+————————
Total—14.71%35.29%35.29%14.71%——100%

Indiana Fever — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 72.94 69.71 +3.24
SD 9.33 9.68 11.82
CV 0.13 0.14 —
Max 90 89 +28
Min 50 55 -25

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————2.94%——2.94%
50–59—2.94%5.88%—2.94%——11.76%
60–69——2.94%2.94%5.88%——11.76%
70–79——5.88%11.76%17.65%5.88%—41.18%
80–89——5.88%2.94%8.82%—5.88%23.53%
90–99————5.88%2.94%—8.82%
100+————————
Total—2.94%20.59%17.65%44.12%8.82%5.88%100%

Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.50 79.65 -5.15
SD 11.89 11.66 12.37
CV 0.16 0.15 —
Max 96 110 +20
Min 47 57 -35

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69———14.71%5.88%——20.59%
70–79——2.94%11.76%20.59%5.88%2.94%44.12%
80–89—5.88%—5.88%5.88%8.82%—26.47%
90–99———2.94%2.94%—2.94%8.82%
100+————————
Total—5.88%2.94%35.29%35.29%14.71%5.88%100%

Minnesota Lynx — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 77.53 80.94 -3.41
SD 8.35 10.84 11.86
CV 0.11 0.13 —
Max 95 106 +26
Min 60 55 -24

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50—2.94%—————2.94%
50–59—2.94%2.94%—2.94%——8.82%
60–69——2.94%17.65%5.88%——26.47%
70–79——17.65%17.65%2.94%——38.24%
80–89——2.94%5.88%11.76%2.94%—23.53%
90–99————————
100+————————
Total—5.88%26.47%41.18%23.53%2.94%—100%

New York Liberty — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 70.97 73.56 -2.59
SD 9.85 8.98 10.20
CV 0.14 0.12 —
Max 86 97 +12
Min 46 52 -31

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69———2.94%2.94%——5.88%
70–79———8.82%5.88%——14.71%
80–89——2.94%17.65%5.88%2.94%5.88%35.29%
90–99———5.88%8.82%5.88%—20.59%
100+———2.94%5.88%5.88%8.82%23.53%
Total——2.94%38.24%29.41%14.71%14.71%100%

Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 88.97 85.41 +3.56
SD 11.60 11.70 11.98
CV 0.13 0.14 —
Max 111 111 +26
Min 67 66 -29

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–592.94%2.94%2.94%————8.82%
60–69—5.88%—11.76%———17.65%
70–79—5.88%8.82%11.76%11.76%——38.24%
80–89——2.94%14.71%8.82%5.88%—32.35%
90–99——————2.94%2.94%
100+————————
Total2.94%14.71%14.71%38.24%20.59%5.88%2.94%100%

Sacramento Monarchs — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.32 72.94 +1.38
SD 9.83 12.82 9.21
CV 0.13 0.18 —
Max 91 101 +18
Min 54 46 -14

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59—2.94%—2.94%2.94%——8.82%
60–69——8.82%8.82%———17.65%
70–79—2.94%14.71%8.82%11.76%——38.24%
80–89——2.94%23.53%2.94%2.94%—32.35%
90–99————2.94%——2.94%
100+————————
Total—5.88%26.47%44.12%20.59%2.94%—100%

San Antonio Silver Stars — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.03 73.06 +0.97
SD 9.69 8.99 9.85
CV 0.13 0.12 —
Max 92 97 +19
Min 55 58 -26

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59———2.94%———2.94%
60–69———5.88%—2.94%—8.82%
70–79—2.94%—8.82%20.59%5.88%—38.24%
80–892.94%2.94%8.82%8.82%—2.94%—26.47%
90–99——2.94%11.76%—2.94%—17.65%
100+————2.94%—2.94%5.88%
Total2.94%5.88%11.76%38.24%23.53%14.71%2.94%100%

Seattle Storm — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 80.41 77.85 +2.56
SD 11.60 12.18 16.12
CV 0.14 0.16 —
Max 111 101 +35
Min 58 47 -28

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——5.88%2.94%———8.82%
60–69—2.94%8.82%11.76%—2.94%—26.47%
70–79——2.94%14.71%5.88%2.94%—26.47%
80–89——5.88%2.94%8.82%2.94%—20.59%
90–99———2.94%8.82%2.94%—14.71%
100+——————2.94%2.94%
Total—2.94%23.53%35.29%23.53%11.76%2.94%100%

Washington Mystics — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.03 77.62 -1.59
SD 12.49 10.78 9.42
CV 0.16 0.14 —
Max 106 101 +17
Min 52 58 -23

Games Played: 34

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.17 +4.0
Allowed 0.08 -3.0
Differential 0.85 +12.8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Antonio Silver Stars 20 16.12 +3.88
2 Phoenix Mercury 23 19.42 +3.58
3 Chicago Sky 14 11.01 +2.99
4 New York Liberty 16 14.03 +1.97
5 Detroit Shock 24 22.31 +1.69

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Los Angeles Sparks 10 16.89 -6.89
2 Connecticut Sun 18 20.04 -2.04
3 Sacramento Monarchs 19 21.03 -2.03
4 Minnesota Lynx 10 11.87 -1.87
5 Houston Comets 13 14.68 -1.68

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 San Antonio Silver Stars 6 Jul 1 – Jul 20 1 in 220
2 Chicago Sky 3 Jul 21 – Jul 26 1 in 55
3 Connecticut Sun 6 Jul 7 – Jul 22 1 in 37
4 Detroit Shock 7 May 19 – Jun 15 1 in 34
5 New York Liberty 5 May 20 – Jun 5 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Los Angeles Sparks 7 Jun 29 – Jul 17 1 in 250
2 Detroit Shock 4 Aug 12 – Aug 19 1 in 181
3 Connecticut Sun 5 Jun 10 – Jun 20 1 in 160
4 Washington Mystics 8 May 19 – Jun 12 1 in 142
5 Indiana Fever 6 Jul 20 – Jul 29 1 in 141

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team123456
Detroit Shock57.56%26.20%12.20%3.33%0.65%0.06%
Connecticut Sun22.01%33.78%29.27%11.21%3.27%0.45%
Indiana Fever18.07%30.80%32.36%13.87%4.28%0.62%
Washington Mystics1.84%6.47%16.82%39.13%26.89%8.84%
New York Liberty0.48%2.51%8.07%25.48%43.20%20.26%
Chicago Sky0.04%0.23%1.28%6.98%21.70%69.77%
Team1234567
Sacramento Monarchs48.88%24.69%13.70%7.47%3.64%1.33%0.29%
Phoenix Mercury24.51%27.34%20.88%13.72%8.36%4.08%1.10%
Seattle Storm14.07%21.26%22.74%18.44%13.28%7.70%2.52%
Los Angeles Sparks6.57%12.39%17.88%21.85%20.65%14.71%5.94%
San Antonio Silver Stars4.33%9.25%14.61%20.12%23.41%19.38%8.90%
Houston Comets1.49%4.50%8.48%14.24%21.54%30.64%19.12%
Minnesota Lynx0.15%0.57%1.72%4.16%9.12%22.16%62.12%
Team12345678910111213
Detroit Shock38.54%22.05%14.32%9.64%6.28%4.03%2.49%1.41%0.71%0.35%0.14%0.04%<0.01%
Sacramento Monarchs20.96%20.71%16.54%12.96%9.98%7.11%4.88%3.16%1.95%1.07%0.45%0.18%0.04%
Connecticut Sun12.86%15.23%15.43%14.40%12.42%10.08%7.60%5.10%3.39%2.00%1.02%0.38%0.08%
Indiana Fever10.36%13.28%14.38%14.05%12.69%10.97%8.66%6.49%4.37%2.63%1.40%0.56%0.17%
Phoenix Mercury8.93%12.25%13.99%14.22%13.25%11.39%9.13%6.56%4.76%2.94%1.65%0.71%0.20%
Seattle Storm4.46%7.58%10.14%11.82%13.08%12.95%11.72%9.70%7.55%5.38%3.36%1.67%0.58%
Los Angeles Sparks1.73%3.62%5.56%7.66%9.78%11.71%13.03%12.94%11.93%9.59%6.80%4.02%1.62%
San Antonio Silver Stars0.98%2.36%3.82%5.63%7.86%9.95%12.26%13.43%13.40%11.98%9.51%6.07%2.76%
Washington Mystics0.77%1.54%2.99%4.59%6.37%8.80%11.02%13.52%14.15%13.58%11.39%7.59%3.70%
Houston Comets0.24%0.83%1.58%2.77%4.35%6.26%8.70%11.36%13.64%15.79%15.47%11.96%7.04%
New York Liberty0.15%0.45%1.01%1.75%2.91%4.71%6.69%9.70%13.04%16.08%18.16%15.22%10.14%
Minnesota Lynx0.01%0.07%0.19%0.35%0.71%1.35%2.44%4.12%6.63%10.66%16.84%27.08%29.55%
Chicago Sky<0.01%0.03%0.07%0.15%0.33%0.67%1.37%2.51%4.49%7.94%13.81%24.52%44.10%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 SeedMissed Playoffs
Detroit Shock57.56%26.20%12.20%3.33%0.71%
Connecticut Sun22.01%33.78%29.27%11.21%3.72%
Indiana Fever18.07%30.80%32.36%13.87%4.90%
Washington Mystics1.84%6.47%16.82%39.13%35.74%
New York Liberty0.48%2.51%8.07%25.48%63.46%
Chicago Sky0.04%0.23%1.28%6.98%91.47%
Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 SeedMissed Playoffs
Sacramento Monarchs48.88%24.69%13.70%7.47%5.26%
Phoenix Mercury24.51%27.34%20.88%13.72%13.55%
Seattle Storm14.07%21.26%22.74%18.44%23.49%
Los Angeles Sparks6.57%12.39%17.88%21.85%41.30%
San Antonio Silver Stars4.33%9.25%14.61%20.12%51.70%
Houston Comets1.49%4.50%8.48%14.24%71.29%
Minnesota Lynx0.15%0.57%1.72%4.16%93.40%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeAway
+8.60%
Clear Edge
54.30%45.70%
Elo Value
Home Edge
35 Elo
0.029 points per Elo point
029.94100
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.77 points
Lean Home
-8+0.86+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds
Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.9
Open Race
124810
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
Phoenix Mercury, 2nd of 13
LongshotFavorite
Title Run Odds
Coin-flip
17.6%
Favored
012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 2.24 · As Expected: 2.24 to 3.08 · Elevated: 3.08 to 4.2 · High Variance: 4.2 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.62 · Close: 1.62 to 2.19 · Off Target: 2.19 to 2.85 · Well Off Target: 2.85 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.65 · As Expected: 0.65 to 1.56 · Several Outliers: 1.56 to 2.86 · Many Outliers: 2.86 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.97 · As Expected: 0.97 to 1.61 · More Than Expected: 1.61 to 2.57 · Far More Than Expected: 2.57 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.90 wins
As Expected
02.807
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.15
Close
01.904
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.15%
93.73%
San Antonio Silver Stars
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.85%
1.17%
Los Angeles Sparks
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 13
As Expected
01.36
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
2 of 8
More Than Expected
01.38

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 15 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.20
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Tilted
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
17%
Mostly Decisive
0%20%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.24
Hard to Predict
00.231
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Wide Gaps
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Weak Alignment
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
40%
As Expected
0%38%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
37%
Shaky Favorites
0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.2 · Well Above Noise: 0.2 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.033
Well Within Noise
00.1000.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals
Detroit Shock 99.29% 69.40% 43.34% 28.42%
Phoenix Mercury 86.45% 56.37% 34.22% 16.84%
Connecticut Sun 96.28% 54.90% 27.08% 15.35%
Sacramento Monarchs 94.74% 58.24% 31.69% 13.86%
Indiana Fever 95.10% 47.25% 21.28% 11.47%
Seattle Storm 76.51% 38.11% 17.86% 6.72%
San Antonio Silver Stars 48.30% 20.16% 8.21% 2.53%
Washington Mystics 64.26% 19.14% 6.13% 2.40%
Houston Comets 28.71% 9.74% 3.37% 0.86%
Los Angeles Sparks 58.70% 15.82% 4.24% 0.84%
New York Liberty 36.54% 7.91% 1.90% 0.58%
Minnesota Lynx 6.60% 1.55% 0.42% 0.08%
Chicago Sky 8.53% 1.41% 0.27% 0.05%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Chicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Chicago Sky17.6%2.10%13.6%4.48%20.1%1.75%48.1%0.05%37.7%0.14%
Connecticut Sun82.4%2.10%41.8%22.76%54.1%42.98%76.7%9.82%69.2%18.61%
Detroit Shock86.4%4.48%58.2%22.76%62.6%26.08%82.7%17.48%75.5%28.50%
Indiana Fever79.9%1.75%45.9%42.98%37.4%26.08%73.7%8.23%64.1%16.06%
New York Liberty51.9%0.05%23.3%9.82%17.3%17.48%26.3%8.23%41.4%0.97%
Washington Mystics62.3%0.14%30.8%18.61%24.5%28.50%35.9%16.06%58.6%0.97%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston CometsLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Houston Comets55.9%2.83%63.6%0.19%25.8%7.76%30.5%10.69%42.5%2.00%36.9%5.24%
Los Angeles Sparks44.1%2.83%56.6%0.49%21.4%17.10%24.5%20.05%35.6%5.68%29.5%12.55%
Minnesota Lynx36.4%0.19%43.4%0.49%19.1%1.73%19.7%2.75%30.4%0.38%26.4%1.05%
Phoenix Mercury74.2%7.76%78.6%17.10%80.9%1.73%54.1%21.24%66.9%13.63%60.7%24.99%
Sacramento Monarchs69.5%10.69%75.5%20.05%80.3%2.75%45.9%21.24%62.5%16.97%56.8%23.04%
San Antonio Silver Stars57.5%2.00%64.4%5.68%69.6%0.38%33.1%13.63%37.5%16.97%43.8%9.64%
Seattle Storm63.1%5.24%70.5%12.55%73.6%1.05%39.3%24.99%43.2%23.04%56.2%9.64%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Chicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Chicago Sky20.0%0.46%15.7%0.48%19.2%0.40%38.9%0.02%28.8%0.05%
Connecticut Sun80.0%0.46%41.8%32.42%53.7%13.56%74.9%2.48%67.1%5.98%
Detroit Shock84.3%0.48%58.2%32.42%62.0%26.02%81.6%2.97%73.8%7.51%
Indiana Fever80.8%0.40%46.3%13.56%38.0%26.02%72.6%2.05%63.1%5.21%
New York Liberty61.1%0.02%25.1%2.48%18.4%2.97%27.4%2.05%38.9%0.39%
Washington Mystics71.2%0.05%32.9%5.98%26.2%7.51%36.9%5.21%61.1%0.39%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston CometsLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Houston Comets56.8%0.63%61.8%0.06%28.4%3.20%32.5%3.18%43.8%0.83%36.2%1.84%
Los Angeles Sparks43.2%0.63%50.6%0.09%21.9%5.37%25.2%5.27%35.9%1.41%30.0%3.05%
Minnesota Lynx38.2%0.06%49.4%0.09%17.3%0.47%24.4%0.49%40.0%0.14%31.3%0.31%
Phoenix Mercury71.6%3.20%78.1%5.37%82.7%0.47%54.3%27.06%65.2%6.84%61.0%13.44%
Sacramento Monarchs67.5%3.18%74.8%5.27%75.6%0.49%45.7%27.06%61.5%6.86%56.2%15.38%
San Antonio Silver Stars56.2%0.83%64.1%1.41%60.0%0.14%34.8%6.84%38.5%6.86%42.5%4.09%
Seattle Storm63.8%1.84%70.0%3.05%68.7%0.31%39.0%13.44%43.8%15.38%57.5%4.09%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Houston CometsLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle StormChicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Chicago Sky50.0%<0.01%33.3%0.01%0.0%<0.01%7.9%0.09%17.4%0.09%45.8%0.02%22.7%0.04%
Connecticut Sun73.5%0.90%80.3%1.08%79.7%0.12%48.8%9.27%55.0%8.59%67.2%2.25%60.8%4.88%
Detroit Shock80.2%1.47%85.4%1.85%85.1%0.17%58.6%14.81%63.7%13.78%75.1%3.59%69.8%7.67%
Indiana Fever70.9%0.73%76.3%0.93%79.2%0.10%46.4%7.29%51.3%6.68%66.7%1.70%57.7%3.86%
New York Liberty55.4%0.06%67.1%0.08%50.0%<0.01%19.9%0.67%28.6%0.60%50.7%0.15%32.7%0.33%
Washington Mystics56.0%0.21%64.5%0.28%60.0%0.03%30.9%2.09%36.3%1.94%51.2%0.50%44.6%1.08%
Houston Comets50.0%<0.01%26.5%0.90%19.8%1.47%29.1%0.73%44.6%0.06%44.0%0.21%
Los Angeles Sparks66.7%0.01%19.7%1.08%14.6%1.85%23.7%0.93%32.9%0.08%35.5%0.28%
Minnesota Lynx100.0%<0.01%20.3%0.12%14.9%0.17%20.8%0.10%50.0%<0.01%40.0%0.03%
Phoenix Mercury92.1%0.09%51.2%9.27%41.4%14.81%53.6%7.29%80.1%0.67%69.1%2.09%
Sacramento Monarchs82.6%0.09%45.0%8.59%36.3%13.78%48.7%6.68%71.4%0.60%63.7%1.94%
San Antonio Silver Stars54.2%0.02%32.8%2.25%24.9%3.59%33.3%1.70%49.3%0.15%48.8%0.50%
Seattle Storm77.3%0.04%39.2%4.88%30.2%7.67%42.3%3.86%67.3%0.33%55.4%1.08%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals Actual Outcome
Detroit Shock 82.47% 49.55% 31.79% Eliminated in Finals
Phoenix Mercury 62.78% 38.37% 18.46% Won Finals
Loser →
↓ Winner
Connecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York Liberty
Connecticut Sun52.2%100.00%
Detroit Shock82.5%100.00%
Indiana Fever47.8%100.00%
New York Liberty17.5%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Phoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury62.8%100.00%
Sacramento Monarchs59.3%100.00%
San Antonio Silver Stars40.7%100.00%
Seattle Storm37.2%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Connecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York Liberty
Connecticut Sun41.6%43.18%76.8%9.04%
Detroit Shock58.4%43.18%61.9%39.29%
Indiana Fever38.1%39.29%73.1%8.49%
New York Liberty23.2%9.04%26.9%8.49%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Phoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Phoenix Mercury56.4%37.20%67.9%25.58%
Sacramento Monarchs43.6%37.20%56.4%22.06%
San Antonio Silver Stars32.1%25.58%45.9%15.16%
Seattle Storm43.6%22.06%54.1%15.16%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Phoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle StormConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York Liberty
Connecticut Sun49.4%9.45%53.4%7.21%65.9%3.81%62.4%4.43%
Detroit Shock58.8%19.08%63.4%14.21%73.8%7.52%68.9%8.74%
Indiana Fever45.1%8.15%53.2%6.02%63.8%3.16%57.2%3.84%
New York Liberty20.7%1.68%26.9%1.20%35.9%0.67%29.8%0.82%
Phoenix Mercury50.6%9.45%41.2%19.08%54.9%8.15%79.3%1.68%
Sacramento Monarchs46.6%7.21%36.6%14.21%46.8%6.02%73.1%1.20%
San Antonio Silver Stars34.1%3.81%26.2%7.52%36.2%3.16%64.1%0.67%
Seattle Storm37.6%4.43%31.1%8.74%42.8%3.84%70.2%0.82%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Detroit Shock 31.79% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. New York Liberty
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
82.47%
→
Semifinals
vs. Connecticut Sun
Matchup
50.91%
Win Prob
58.43%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
35.26%
Win Prob
58.75%
Phoenix Mercury 18.46% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
62.78%
→
Semifinals
vs. Sacramento Monarchs
Matchup
54.72%
Win Prob
56.45%
→
Finals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
42.63%
Win Prob
41.25%
Connecticut Sun 13.80% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
52.22%
→
Semifinals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
72.09%
Win Prob
41.57%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
33.85%
Win Prob
49.41%
Sacramento Monarchs 12.26% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. San Antonio Silver Stars
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
59.26%
→
Semifinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
56.55%
Win Prob
43.55%
→
Finals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
42.46%
Win Prob
36.63%
Indiana Fever 11.09% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Connecticut Sun
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
47.78%
→
Semifinals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
70.70%
Win Prob
38.09%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
33.15%
Win Prob
45.09%
Seattle Storm 6.60% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
37.22%
→
Semifinals
vs. Sacramento Monarchs
Matchup
53.94%
Win Prob
43.58%
→
Finals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
41.14%
Win Prob
31.06%
San Antonio Silver Stars 4.84% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Sacramento Monarchs
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
40.74%
→
Semifinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
54.15%
Win Prob
32.09%
→
Finals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
40.74%
Win Prob
26.24%
New York Liberty 1.16% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
17.53%
→
Semifinals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
52.18%
Win Prob
26.93%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
30.11%
Win Prob
20.72%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2007-05-20 @ New York Liberty L 71-83 1372.00 1442.02 36.00% 64.00% -6.04 0-1
2007-05-22 Los Angeles Sparks L 64-81 1365.96 1530.35 31.56% 68.44% -6.30 0-2
2007-05-25 @ Minnesota Lynx W 82-77 1359.66 1412.06 38.37% 61.63% +6.67 1-2
2007-05-31 Connecticut Sun L 97-102 1366.33 1562.51 27.75% 72.25% -3.00 1-3
2007-06-01 @ Washington Mystics W 75-70 1363.33 1472.24 31.02% 68.98% +7.46 2-3
2007-06-03 Minnesota Lynx W 78-72 1370.79 1391.87 51.27% 48.73% +5.78 3-3
2007-06-07 @ Phoenix Mercury L 66-80 1376.57 1526.75 26.18% 73.82% -4.74 3-4
2007-06-09 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 70-60 1371.83 1463.07 33.24% 66.76% +10.22 4-4
2007-06-12 Seattle Storm L 69-81 1382.05 1509.95 36.26% 63.74% -6.08 4-5
2007-06-15 New York Liberty W 73-66 1375.97 1466.73 41.34% 58.66% +7.51 5-5
2007-06-17 @ Connecticut Sun W 87-74 1383.48 1561.91 23.16% 76.84% +13.41 6-5
2007-06-19 Sacramento Monarchs L 52-54 1396.89 1599.77 26.98% 73.02% -1.85 6-6
2007-06-23 Washington Mystics L 86-99 1395.04 1455.02 45.69% 54.31% -7.97 6-7
2007-06-26 @ Seattle Storm L 76-94 1387.07 1509.91 29.33% 70.67% -6.02 6-8
2007-06-29 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 92-84 1381.05 1597.59 19.48% 80.52% +11.02 7-8
2007-07-01 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 74-71 1392.07 1513.84 29.46% 70.54% +5.91 8-8
2007-07-07 Washington Mystics L 73-77 1397.98 1467.32 44.35% 55.65% -4.29 8-9
2007-07-08 @ Indiana Fever L 70-86 1393.69 1572.51 23.12% 76.88% -4.47 8-10
2007-07-10 @ Detroit Shock L 84-92 1389.22 1604.47 19.60% 80.40% -2.69 8-11
2007-07-12 Detroit Shock L 65-78 1386.53 1607.15 25.02% 74.98% -4.36 8-12
2007-07-18 @ Indiana Fever L 74-75 1382.17 1585.13 20.74% 79.26% -1.01 8-13
2007-07-21 Indiana Fever W 68-65 1381.16 1578.83 27.58% 72.42% +6.07 9-13
2007-07-22 San Antonio Silver Stars W 84-82 1387.23 1505.83 37.51% 62.49% +4.28 10-13
2007-07-26 @ Detroit Shock W 83-73 1391.51 1629.73 17.60% 82.40% +12.61 11-13
2007-07-27 Phoenix Mercury L 96-98 1404.12 1537.92 35.48% 64.52% -2.43 11-14
2007-07-29 Houston Comets W 88-70 1401.69 1458.49 46.14% 53.86% +11.06 12-14
2007-07-31 @ Connecticut Sun L 56-74 1412.75 1567.24 25.70% 74.30% -5.27 12-15
2007-08-03 Detroit Shock L 60-66 1407.48 1628.92 24.93% 75.07% -2.96 12-16
2007-08-05 @ Washington Mystics L 66-71 1404.52 1479.73 35.31% 64.69% -3.82 12-17
2007-08-07 Indiana Fever L 70-75 1400.70 1545.05 34.10% 65.90% -3.69 12-18
2007-08-11 Connecticut Sun L 66-88 1397.01 1578.94 29.42% 70.58% -6.68 12-19
2007-08-14 New York Liberty W 77-65 1390.33 1426.84 49.05% 50.95% +8.54 13-19
2007-08-16 @ Houston Comets W 81-70 1398.87 1464.86 36.53% 63.47% +10.19 14-19
2007-08-19 @ New York Liberty L 52-58 1409.06 1430.75 42.62% 57.38% -5.06 14-20
2007-05-19 @ Washington Mystics W 89-80 1574.85 1498.80 56.60% 43.40% +6.30 1-0
2007-05-23 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-74 1581.15 1443.11 65.07% 34.93% -5.46 1-1
2007-05-26 Los Angeles Sparks L 68-88 1575.69 1528.55 60.91% 39.09% -13.18 1-2
2007-05-31 @ Chicago Sky W 102-97 1562.51 1366.33 72.25% 27.75% +3.00 2-2
2007-06-02 Phoenix Mercury W 76-67 1565.51 1543.65 57.40% 42.60% +6.19 3-2
2007-06-08 @ Houston Comets W 88-77 1571.70 1458.03 61.82% 38.18% +6.13 4-2
2007-06-10 Detroit Shock L 74-79 1577.83 1594.63 51.89% 48.11% -5.62 4-3
2007-06-13 @ Minnesota Lynx L 73-77 1572.21 1386.28 71.05% 28.95% -6.88 4-4
2007-06-15 @ Detroit Shock L 72-75 1565.33 1600.24 40.77% 59.23% -3.42 4-5
2007-06-17 Chicago Sky L 74-87 1561.91 1383.48 76.84% 23.16% -13.41 4-6
2007-06-20 New York Liberty L 73-76 1548.50 1452.84 67.33% 32.67% -5.64 4-7
2007-06-22 @ Indiana Fever W 78-74 1542.86 1570.21 41.83% 58.17% +5.63 5-7
2007-06-23 San Antonio Silver Stars L 58-71 1548.49 1471.04 64.98% 35.02% -11.34 5-8
2007-06-26 Washington Mystics L 75-91 1537.15 1462.99 64.55% 35.45% -12.49 5-9
2007-06-27 @ Detroit Shock L 74-77 1524.66 1604.14 34.75% 65.25% -2.92 5-10
2007-06-29 Indiana Fever W 72-67 1521.74 1570.72 47.26% 52.74% +5.71 6-10
2007-07-06 @ Phoenix Mercury L 109-111 1527.45 1544.81 43.24% 56.76% -2.96 6-11
2007-07-07 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 110-89 1524.49 1496.52 49.72% 50.28% +11.15 7-11
2007-07-11 @ Seattle Storm W 76-63 1535.64 1544.40 44.45% 55.55% +9.70 8-11
2007-07-12 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 82-78 1545.34 1582.93 40.40% 59.60% +5.76 9-11
2007-07-17 Minnesota Lynx W 84-79 1551.10 1386.22 75.43% 24.57% +2.66 10-11
2007-07-20 Seattle Storm W 76-58 1553.76 1527.56 58.01% 41.99% +8.63 11-11
2007-07-22 Houston Comets W 81-79 1562.39 1453.19 69.02% 30.98% +2.12 12-11
2007-07-24 Detroit Shock L 88-92 1564.51 1625.32 45.57% 54.43% -4.41 12-12
2007-07-26 New York Liberty W 79-75 1560.10 1437.92 70.59% 29.41% +2.84 13-12
2007-07-29 @ New York Liberty W 67-61 1562.94 1435.08 63.73% 36.27% +4.30 14-12
2007-07-31 Chicago Sky W 74-56 1567.24 1412.75 74.30% 25.70% +5.28 15-12
2007-08-04 Indiana Fever W 84-59 1572.52 1548.19 57.75% 42.25% +10.23 16-12
2007-08-07 Sacramento Monarchs L 79-81 1582.75 1573.16 55.66% 44.34% -3.81 16-13
2007-08-11 @ Chicago Sky W 88-66 1578.94 1397.01 70.58% 29.42% +6.67 17-13
2007-08-14 @ Washington Mystics L 64-65 1585.61 1480.58 60.64% 39.36% -2.93 17-14
2007-08-15 @ Indiana Fever W 77-74 1582.68 1545.14 51.09% 48.91% +4.10 18-14
2007-08-17 @ New York Liberty L 66-74 1586.78 1421.37 68.56% 31.44% -9.39 18-15
2007-08-19 Washington Mystics L 74-76 1577.39 1480.44 67.49% 32.51% -4.62 18-16
2007-05-19 Sacramento Monarchs W 75-68 1568.43 1575.30 53.32% 46.68% +5.98 1-0
2007-05-22 Minnesota Lynx W 85-75 1574.41 1415.93 74.74% 25.26% +3.87 2-0
2007-05-30 Washington Mystics W 94-79 1578.28 1478.26 67.88% 32.12% +6.02 3-0
2007-06-02 @ Houston Comets W 77-71 1584.30 1471.16 61.75% 38.25% +4.54 4-0
2007-06-08 @ New York Liberty W 67-57 1588.84 1472.73 62.15% 37.85% +5.79 5-0
2007-06-10 @ Connecticut Sun W 79-74 1594.63 1577.83 48.11% 51.89% +5.61 6-0
2007-06-15 Connecticut Sun W 75-72 1600.24 1565.33 59.23% 40.77% +3.42 7-0
2007-06-16 Indiana Fever L 67-77 1603.66 1560.98 60.30% 39.70% -9.23 7-1
2007-06-18 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 79-73 1594.43 1533.22 54.49% 45.51% +5.40 8-1
2007-06-20 @ Seattle Storm W 87-71 1599.83 1512.37 58.20% 41.80% +8.09 9-1
2007-06-22 @ Phoenix Mercury W 87-84 1607.92 1528.64 57.05% 42.95% +3.60 10-1
2007-06-23 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 75-85 1611.52 1593.74 48.25% 51.75% -7.38 10-2
2007-06-27 Connecticut Sun W 77-74 1604.14 1524.66 65.25% 34.75% +2.91 11-2
2007-06-29 @ Washington Mystics L 64-65 1607.05 1475.49 64.22% 35.78% -3.11 11-3
2007-07-01 San Antonio Silver Stars L 68-71 1603.94 1465.17 72.53% 27.47% -6.08 11-4
2007-07-06 New York Liberty L 81-82 1597.86 1441.92 74.46% 25.54% -3.60 11-5
2007-07-08 Phoenix Mercury W 111-82 1594.26 1547.77 60.83% 39.17% +10.21 12-5
2007-07-10 Chicago Sky W 92-84 1604.47 1389.22 80.40% 19.60% +2.68 13-5
2007-07-12 @ Chicago Sky W 78-65 1607.15 1386.53 74.98% 25.02% +4.37 14-5
2007-07-18 New York Liberty W 87-82 1611.52 1450.02 75.06% 24.94% +2.69 15-5
2007-07-20 @ Indiana Fever W 89-80 1614.21 1586.13 49.73% 50.27% +7.30 16-5
2007-07-21 Washington Mystics W 66-58 1621.51 1485.77 72.19% 27.81% +3.81 17-5
2007-07-24 @ Connecticut Sun W 92-88 1625.32 1564.51 54.43% 45.57% +4.41 18-5
2007-07-26 Chicago Sky L 73-83 1629.73 1391.51 82.40% 17.60% -12.61 18-6
2007-07-28 @ Washington Mystics W 76-64 1617.12 1484.45 64.37% 35.63% +5.97 19-6
2007-07-29 Los Angeles Sparks W 75-73 1623.09 1464.53 74.75% 25.25% +1.73 20-6
2007-07-31 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 84-79 1624.82 1508.53 62.18% 37.82% +4.10 21-6
2007-08-03 @ Chicago Sky W 66-60 1628.92 1407.48 75.07% 24.93% +2.95 22-6
2007-08-09 Seattle Storm W 97-70 1631.87 1507.22 70.89% 29.11% +7.32 23-6
2007-08-11 Indiana Fever W 74-69 1639.19 1548.75 66.66% 33.34% +3.61 24-6
2007-08-12 @ New York Liberty L 84-85 1642.80 1423.22 74.87% 25.13% -3.62 24-7
2007-08-14 Houston Comets L 73-81 1639.18 1454.26 77.50% 22.50% -10.61 24-8
2007-08-16 @ Minnesota Lynx L 77-87 1628.57 1380.33 77.84% 22.16% -11.92 24-9
2007-08-19 @ Indiana Fever L 66-72 1616.65 1545.93 55.84% 44.16% -6.62 24-10
2007-05-19 @ Seattle Storm L 69-82 1498.15 1512.29 43.69% 56.31% -7.63 0-1
2007-05-25 @ Phoenix Mercury L 85-111 1490.52 1523.53 41.04% 58.96% -10.13 0-2
2007-05-29 San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-82 1480.39 1457.74 57.51% 42.49% -9.23 0-3
2007-06-02 Detroit Shock L 71-77 1471.16 1584.30 38.25% 61.75% -4.53 0-4
2007-06-06 @ Indiana Fever L 59-84 1466.63 1540.35 35.51% 64.49% -8.60 0-5
2007-06-08 Connecticut Sun L 77-88 1458.03 1571.70 38.18% 61.82% -6.12 0-6
2007-06-11 Sacramento Monarchs L 67-82 1451.91 1588.98 35.05% 64.95% -6.58 0-7
2007-06-13 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 71-74 1445.33 1540.61 32.72% 67.28% -2.74 0-8
2007-06-15 @ Seattle Storm L 71-84 1442.59 1505.93 36.89% 63.11% -6.44 0-9
2007-06-16 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 63-75 1436.15 1595.55 25.16% 74.84% -4.21 0-10
2007-06-20 Los Angeles Sparks W 74-64 1431.94 1527.83 40.62% 59.38% +9.08 1-10
2007-06-22 Washington Mystics W 95-85 1441.02 1462.49 51.22% 48.78% +7.47 2-10
2007-06-24 @ Phoenix Mercury L 85-90 1448.49 1525.04 35.14% 64.86% -3.80 2-11
2007-06-26 San Antonio Silver Stars W 75-67 1444.69 1482.38 48.88% 51.12% +6.99 3-11
2007-06-28 Seattle Storm W 81-76 1451.68 1515.93 45.08% 54.92% +5.95 4-11
2007-06-30 Phoenix Mercury L 75-92 1457.63 1528.84 44.09% 55.91% -8.80 4-12
2007-07-06 Seattle Storm L 55-71 1448.83 1529.40 42.77% 57.23% -8.28 4-13
2007-07-08 @ Minnesota Lynx W 79-67 1440.55 1405.14 50.79% 49.21% +8.25 5-13
2007-07-10 Indiana Fever L 77-79 1448.80 1576.99 36.23% 63.77% -2.48 5-14
2007-07-12 Minnesota Lynx W 87-77 1446.32 1392.05 61.89% 38.11% +5.84 6-14
2007-07-18 @ Washington Mystics L 58-65 1452.16 1476.46 42.26% 57.74% -5.42 6-15
2007-07-20 @ New York Liberty W 80-74 1446.74 1447.32 45.62% 54.38% +6.45 7-15
2007-07-22 @ Connecticut Sun L 79-81 1453.19 1562.39 30.98% 69.02% -2.12 7-16
2007-07-27 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 69-63 1451.07 1510.34 37.44% 62.56% +7.42 8-16
2007-07-29 @ Chicago Sky L 70-88 1458.49 1401.69 53.86% 46.14% -11.06 8-17
2007-07-31 Phoenix Mercury L 74-76 1447.43 1545.41 40.33% 59.67% -2.76 8-18
2007-08-03 Los Angeles Sparks W 66-56 1444.67 1470.41 50.60% 49.40% +7.56 9-18
2007-08-04 @ Minnesota Lynx W 80-77 1452.23 1380.30 56.01% 43.99% +3.69 10-18
2007-08-07 New York Liberty L 71-77 1455.92 1420.94 59.23% 40.77% -7.03 10-19
2007-08-10 Sacramento Monarchs W 83-75 1448.89 1567.91 37.45% 62.55% +8.57 11-19
2007-08-11 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 60-63 1457.46 1511.27 38.18% 61.82% -3.20 11-20
2007-08-14 @ Detroit Shock W 81-73 1454.26 1639.18 22.50% 77.50% +10.60 12-20
2007-08-16 Chicago Sky L 70-81 1464.86 1398.87 63.47% 36.53% -10.18 12-21
2007-08-19 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 82-72 1454.68 1431.71 49.00% 51.00% +7.80 13-21
2007-05-19 Minnesota Lynx W 83-64 1524.96 1427.93 67.50% 32.50% +6.86 1-0
2007-05-24 Los Angeles Sparks W 83-70 1531.82 1536.64 53.61% 46.39% +8.10 2-0
2007-05-29 @ Minnesota Lynx W 89-75 1539.92 1405.39 64.61% 35.39% +6.40 3-0
2007-06-03 Washington Mystics W 70-66 1546.32 1464.77 65.52% 34.48% +3.34 4-0
2007-06-05 @ New York Liberty L 67-78 1549.66 1463.42 58.03% 41.97% -9.31 4-1
2007-06-06 Houston Comets W 84-59 1540.35 1466.63 64.49% 35.51% +8.59 5-1
2007-06-08 @ Washington Mystics W 74-69 1548.94 1461.43 58.21% 41.79% +4.52 6-1
2007-06-10 New York Liberty W 80-61 1553.46 1466.94 66.16% 33.84% +7.14 7-1
2007-06-13 Seattle Storm W 90-62 1560.60 1516.03 60.56% 39.44% +10.10 8-1
2007-06-15 Phoenix Mercury L 78-89 1570.70 1525.98 60.58% 39.42% -9.72 8-2
2007-06-16 @ Detroit Shock W 77-67 1560.98 1603.66 39.70% 60.30% +9.23 9-2
2007-06-22 Connecticut Sun L 74-78 1570.21 1542.86 58.17% 41.83% -5.63 9-3
2007-06-24 @ New York Liberty W 74-63 1564.58 1451.63 61.72% 38.28% +6.14 10-3
2007-06-29 @ Connecticut Sun L 67-72 1570.72 1521.74 52.74% 47.26% -5.71 10-4
2007-07-01 @ Washington Mystics W 69-62 1565.01 1478.60 58.06% 41.94% +5.37 11-4
2007-07-05 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 57-56 1570.38 1498.65 55.99% 44.01% +2.13 12-4
2007-07-08 Chicago Sky W 86-70 1572.51 1393.69 76.88% 23.12% +4.48 13-4
2007-07-10 @ Houston Comets W 79-77 1576.99 1448.80 63.77% 36.23% +2.48 14-4
2007-07-12 New York Liberty W 79-63 1579.47 1455.68 70.78% 29.22% +5.66 15-4
2007-07-18 Chicago Sky W 75-74 1585.13 1382.17 79.26% 20.74% +1.00 16-4
2007-07-20 Detroit Shock L 80-89 1586.13 1614.21 50.27% 49.73% -7.30 16-5
2007-07-21 @ Chicago Sky L 65-68 1578.83 1381.16 72.42% 27.58% -6.07 16-6
2007-07-24 San Antonio Silver Stars L 63-71 1572.76 1501.56 64.16% 35.84% -8.78 16-7
2007-07-26 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 50-60 1563.98 1572.98 44.42% 55.58% -6.80 16-8
2007-07-27 @ Seattle Storm L 75-89 1557.18 1519.40 51.13% 48.87% -9.26 16-9
2007-07-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 75-80 1547.92 1540.35 46.79% 53.21% -5.06 16-10
2007-07-31 Washington Mystics W 66-57 1542.86 1478.48 63.25% 36.75% +5.33 17-10
2007-08-04 @ Connecticut Sun L 59-84 1548.19 1572.52 42.25% 57.75% -10.22 17-11
2007-08-05 Sacramento Monarchs W 63-55 1537.97 1580.25 48.22% 51.78% +7.08 18-11
2007-08-07 @ Chicago Sky W 75-70 1545.05 1400.70 65.90% 34.10% +3.70 19-11
2007-08-11 @ Detroit Shock L 69-74 1548.75 1639.19 33.34% 66.66% -3.61 19-12
2007-08-15 Connecticut Sun L 74-77 1545.14 1582.68 48.91% 51.09% -4.10 19-13
2007-08-17 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 59-55 1541.04 1515.06 49.43% 50.57% +4.89 20-13
2007-08-19 Detroit Shock W 72-66 1545.93 1616.65 44.16% 55.84% +6.62 21-13
2007-05-22 @ Chicago Sky W 81-64 1530.35 1365.96 68.44% 31.56% +6.29 1-0
2007-05-24 @ Indiana Fever L 70-83 1536.64 1531.82 46.39% 53.61% -8.09 1-1
2007-05-26 @ Connecticut Sun W 88-68 1528.55 1575.69 39.09% 60.91% +13.18 2-1
2007-06-02 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 85-88 1541.73 1580.65 40.22% 59.78% -3.37 2-2
2007-06-08 Minnesota Lynx W 90-87 1538.36 1394.07 73.16% 26.84% +2.25 3-2
2007-06-13 Houston Comets W 74-71 1540.61 1445.33 67.28% 32.72% +2.75 4-2
2007-06-15 @ Washington Mystics W 89-80 1543.36 1461.60 57.40% 42.60% +6.18 5-2
2007-06-16 @ Minnesota Lynx L 58-83 1549.54 1393.16 67.43% 32.57% -16.32 5-3
2007-06-18 Detroit Shock L 73-79 1533.22 1594.43 45.51% 54.49% -5.39 5-4
2007-06-20 @ Houston Comets L 64-74 1527.83 1431.94 59.38% 40.62% -9.09 5-5
2007-06-22 Sacramento Monarchs W 96-88 1518.74 1601.62 42.44% 57.56% +7.88 6-5
2007-06-24 Seattle Storm L 71-83 1526.62 1500.18 58.04% 41.96% -9.73 6-6
2007-06-27 Sacramento Monarchs W 74-66 1516.89 1605.59 41.62% 58.38% +7.99 7-6
2007-06-29 New York Liberty L 68-80 1524.88 1441.03 65.81% 34.19% -11.04 7-7
2007-07-01 Chicago Sky L 71-74 1513.84 1392.07 70.54% 29.46% -5.91 7-8
2007-07-03 @ Seattle Storm L 71-90 1507.93 1520.12 43.97% 56.03% -9.28 7-9
2007-07-05 Indiana Fever L 56-57 1498.65 1570.38 44.01% 55.99% -2.13 7-10
2007-07-07 Connecticut Sun L 89-110 1496.52 1524.49 50.28% 49.72% -11.15 7-11
2007-07-10 Seattle Storm L 47-82 1485.37 1530.71 47.78% 52.22% -13.68 7-12
2007-07-17 San Antonio Silver Stars L 61-63 1471.69 1493.58 51.16% 48.84% -3.50 7-13
2007-07-20 @ Phoenix Mercury W 87-77 1468.19 1535.24 36.39% 63.61% +9.73 8-13
2007-07-24 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 59-67 1477.92 1568.42 33.33% 66.67% -4.56 8-14
2007-07-27 @ Minnesota Lynx L 76-85 1473.36 1367.25 60.79% 39.21% -8.83 8-15
2007-07-29 @ Detroit Shock L 73-75 1464.53 1623.09 25.25% 74.75% -1.73 8-16
2007-07-31 @ New York Liberty W 73-63 1462.80 1430.78 50.30% 49.70% +7.61 9-16
2007-08-03 @ Houston Comets L 56-66 1470.41 1444.67 49.40% 50.60% -7.56 9-17
2007-08-04 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 67-86 1462.85 1499.24 40.57% 59.43% -8.56 9-18
2007-08-07 Phoenix Mercury L 93-96 1454.29 1545.51 41.27% 58.73% -3.46 9-19
2007-08-09 Washington Mystics L 75-80 1450.83 1489.14 48.80% 51.20% -5.28 9-20
2007-08-11 @ Phoenix Mercury L 83-100 1445.55 1553.71 31.11% 68.89% -6.21 9-21
2007-08-12 Minnesota Lynx W 89-80 1439.34 1391.25 61.04% 38.96% +5.66 10-21
2007-08-14 San Antonio Silver Stars L 77-84 1445.00 1514.47 44.34% 55.66% -5.68 10-22
2007-08-17 @ Seattle Storm L 77-97 1439.32 1515.59 35.17% 64.83% -7.61 10-23
2007-08-19 Houston Comets L 72-82 1431.71 1454.68 51.00% 49.00% -7.81 10-24
2007-05-19 @ Indiana Fever L 64-83 1427.93 1524.96 32.50% 67.50% -6.86 0-1
2007-05-20 Sacramento Monarchs L 64-74 1421.07 1569.33 33.60% 66.40% -5.14 0-2
2007-05-22 @ Detroit Shock L 75-85 1415.93 1574.41 25.26% 74.74% -3.87 0-3
2007-05-25 Chicago Sky L 77-82 1412.06 1359.66 61.63% 38.37% -6.67 0-4
2007-05-29 Indiana Fever L 75-89 1405.39 1539.92 35.39% 64.61% -6.40 0-5
2007-06-01 New York Liberty L 60-70 1398.99 1453.56 46.46% 53.54% -7.12 0-6
2007-06-03 @ Chicago Sky L 72-78 1391.87 1370.79 48.73% 51.27% -5.77 0-7
2007-06-05 @ Phoenix Mercury W 90-85 1386.10 1534.72 26.35% 73.65% +7.97 1-7
2007-06-08 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 87-90 1394.07 1538.36 26.84% 73.16% -2.25 1-8
2007-06-09 @ Seattle Storm L 76-90 1391.82 1504.42 30.57% 69.43% -5.54 1-9
2007-06-13 Connecticut Sun W 77-73 1386.28 1572.21 28.95% 71.05% +6.88 2-9
2007-06-16 Los Angeles Sparks W 83-58 1393.16 1549.54 32.57% 67.43% +16.32 3-9
2007-06-20 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 73-80 1409.48 1459.23 38.73% 61.27% -4.96 3-10
2007-06-22 Seattle Storm W 78-76 1404.52 1504.28 40.09% 59.91% +4.10 4-10
2007-06-29 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 77-66 1408.62 1475.38 36.43% 63.57% +10.21 5-10
2007-07-01 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 68-76 1418.83 1586.57 24.27% 75.73% -3.33 5-11
2007-07-03 Phoenix Mercury L 79-95 1415.50 1537.64 37.04% 62.96% -7.17 5-12
2007-07-06 Sacramento Monarchs L 80-85 1408.33 1589.89 29.47% 70.53% -3.19 5-13
2007-07-08 Houston Comets L 67-79 1405.14 1440.55 49.21% 50.79% -8.25 5-14
2007-07-10 @ Washington Mystics L 83-91 1396.89 1471.61 35.38% 64.62% -4.84 5-15
2007-07-12 @ Houston Comets L 77-87 1392.05 1446.32 38.11% 61.89% -5.83 5-16
2007-07-17 @ Connecticut Sun L 79-84 1386.22 1551.10 24.57% 75.43% -2.66 5-17
2007-07-20 Washington Mystics L 87-91 1383.56 1481.87 40.29% 59.71% -3.90 5-18
2007-07-22 @ Phoenix Mercury L 93-106 1379.66 1525.51 26.66% 73.34% -4.65 5-19
2007-07-25 Phoenix Mercury L 79-103 1375.01 1530.16 32.72% 67.28% -7.76 5-20
2007-07-27 Los Angeles Sparks W 85-76 1367.25 1473.36 39.21% 60.79% +8.82 6-20
2007-07-29 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 78-73 1376.07 1579.78 20.67% 79.33% +8.59 7-20
2007-08-02 @ New York Liberty L 66-71 1384.66 1423.17 40.27% 59.73% -4.36 7-21
2007-08-04 Houston Comets L 77-80 1380.30 1452.23 43.99% 56.01% -3.69 7-22
2007-08-07 Seattle Storm W 95-74 1376.61 1521.86 33.99% 66.01% +14.64 8-22
2007-08-12 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 80-89 1391.25 1439.34 38.96% 61.04% -5.65 8-23
2007-08-14 @ Seattle Storm L 67-81 1385.60 1510.32 29.10% 70.90% -5.27 8-24
2007-08-16 Detroit Shock W 87-77 1380.33 1628.57 22.16% 77.84% +11.91 9-24
2007-08-19 San Antonio Silver Stars W 81-55 1392.24 1510.16 37.60% 62.40% +15.40 10-24
2007-05-20 Chicago Sky W 83-71 1442.02 1372.00 64.00% 36.00% +6.04 1-0
2007-05-24 Washington Mystics W 81-76 1448.06 1483.76 49.17% 50.83% +5.50 2-0
2007-06-01 @ Minnesota Lynx W 70-60 1453.56 1398.99 53.54% 46.46% +7.11 3-0
2007-06-03 Phoenix Mercury W 83-82 1460.67 1537.47 43.30% 56.70% +2.75 4-0
2007-06-05 Indiana Fever W 78-67 1463.42 1549.66 41.97% 58.03% +9.31 5-0
2007-06-08 Detroit Shock L 57-67 1472.73 1588.84 37.85% 62.15% -5.79 5-1
2007-06-10 @ Indiana Fever L 61-80 1466.94 1553.46 33.84% 66.16% -7.14 5-2
2007-06-12 Washington Mystics W 79-69 1459.80 1456.91 54.71% 45.29% +6.93 6-2
2007-06-15 @ Chicago Sky L 66-73 1466.73 1375.97 58.66% 41.34% -7.51 6-3
2007-06-16 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-79 1459.22 1452.85 46.61% 53.39% -6.38 6-4
2007-06-20 @ Connecticut Sun W 76-73 1452.84 1548.50 32.67% 67.33% +5.64 7-4
2007-06-22 San Antonio Silver Stars L 63-70 1458.48 1464.19 53.48% 46.52% -6.85 7-5
2007-06-24 Indiana Fever L 63-74 1451.63 1564.58 38.28% 61.72% -6.14 7-6
2007-06-26 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 46-59 1445.49 1601.12 25.57% 74.43% -4.46 7-7
2007-06-29 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 80-68 1441.03 1524.88 34.19% 65.81% +11.03 8-7
2007-07-01 @ Seattle Storm L 53-84 1452.06 1509.99 37.62% 62.38% -10.14 8-8
2007-07-06 @ Detroit Shock W 82-81 1441.92 1597.86 25.54% 74.46% +3.61 9-8
2007-07-08 Sacramento Monarchs W 71-61 1445.53 1593.08 33.69% 66.31% +10.15 10-8
2007-07-12 @ Indiana Fever L 63-79 1455.68 1579.47 29.22% 70.78% -5.66 10-9
2007-07-18 @ Detroit Shock L 82-87 1450.02 1611.52 24.94% 75.06% -2.70 10-10
2007-07-20 Houston Comets L 74-80 1447.32 1446.74 54.38% 45.62% -6.45 10-11
2007-07-22 Seattle Storm L 75-77 1440.87 1518.94 43.12% 56.88% -2.95 10-12
2007-07-26 @ Connecticut Sun L 75-79 1437.92 1560.10 29.41% 70.59% -2.84 10-13
2007-07-29 Connecticut Sun L 61-67 1435.08 1562.94 36.27% 63.73% -4.30 10-14
2007-07-31 Los Angeles Sparks L 63-73 1430.78 1462.80 49.70% 50.30% -7.61 10-15
2007-08-02 Minnesota Lynx W 71-66 1423.17 1384.66 59.73% 40.27% +4.36 11-15
2007-08-03 @ Washington Mystics L 68-80 1427.53 1473.14 39.30% 60.70% -6.59 11-16
2007-08-07 @ Houston Comets W 77-71 1420.94 1455.92 40.77% 59.23% +7.02 12-16
2007-08-09 @ Phoenix Mercury L 86-97 1427.96 1548.97 29.55% 70.45% -4.74 12-17
2007-08-12 Detroit Shock W 85-84 1423.22 1642.80 25.13% 74.87% +3.62 13-17
2007-08-14 @ Chicago Sky L 65-77 1426.84 1390.33 50.95% 49.05% -8.54 13-18
2007-08-16 @ Washington Mystics W 73-72 1418.30 1483.51 36.64% 63.36% +3.07 14-18
2007-08-17 Connecticut Sun W 74-66 1421.37 1586.78 31.44% 68.56% +9.38 15-18
2007-08-19 Chicago Sky W 58-52 1430.75 1409.06 57.38% 42.62% +5.06 16-18
2007-05-19 San Antonio Silver Stars W 81-72 1526.74 1448.18 65.13% 34.87% +5.06 1-0
2007-05-23 @ Seattle Storm L 87-100 1531.80 1519.91 47.40% 52.60% -8.27 1-1
2007-05-25 Houston Comets W 111-85 1523.53 1490.52 58.96% 41.04% +10.13 2-1
2007-05-29 Sacramento Monarchs W 76-75 1533.66 1583.21 47.18% 52.82% +2.55 3-1
2007-05-31 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 97-85 1536.21 1466.97 55.63% 44.37% +7.44 4-1
2007-06-02 @ Connecticut Sun L 67-76 1543.65 1565.51 42.60% 57.40% -6.18 4-2
2007-06-03 @ New York Liberty L 82-83 1537.47 1460.67 56.70% 43.30% -2.75 4-3
2007-06-05 Minnesota Lynx L 85-90 1534.72 1386.10 73.65% 26.35% -7.97 4-4
2007-06-07 Chicago Sky W 80-66 1526.75 1376.57 73.82% 26.18% +4.74 5-4
2007-06-09 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 74-70 1531.49 1595.09 36.85% 63.15% +6.11 6-4
2007-06-13 @ Washington Mystics L 69-86 1537.60 1449.98 58.23% 41.77% -11.62 6-5
2007-06-15 @ Indiana Fever W 89-78 1525.98 1570.70 39.42% 60.58% +9.73 7-5
2007-06-20 Washington Mystics L 101-106 1535.71 1455.41 65.35% 34.65% -7.07 7-6
2007-06-22 Detroit Shock L 84-87 1528.64 1607.92 42.95% 57.05% -3.60 7-7
2007-06-24 Houston Comets W 90-85 1525.04 1448.49 64.86% 35.14% +3.80 8-7
2007-06-30 @ Houston Comets W 92-75 1528.84 1457.63 55.91% 44.09% +8.80 9-7
2007-07-03 @ Minnesota Lynx W 95-79 1537.64 1415.50 62.96% 37.04% +7.17 10-7
2007-07-06 Connecticut Sun W 111-109 1544.81 1527.45 56.76% 43.24% +2.96 11-7
2007-07-08 @ Detroit Shock L 82-111 1547.77 1594.26 39.17% 60.83% -10.21 11-8
2007-07-11 San Antonio Silver Stars L 77-87 1537.56 1484.13 61.77% 38.23% -9.46 11-9
2007-07-17 Seattle Storm W 89-79 1528.10 1534.70 53.35% 46.65% +7.14 12-9
2007-07-20 Los Angeles Sparks L 77-87 1535.24 1468.19 63.61% 36.39% -9.73 12-10
2007-07-22 Minnesota Lynx W 106-93 1525.51 1379.66 73.34% 26.66% +4.65 13-10
2007-07-25 @ Minnesota Lynx W 103-79 1530.16 1375.01 67.28% 32.72% +7.76 14-10
2007-07-27 @ Chicago Sky W 98-96 1537.92 1404.12 64.52% 35.48% +2.43 15-10
2007-07-29 Indiana Fever W 80-75 1540.35 1547.92 53.21% 46.79% +5.06 16-10
2007-07-31 @ Houston Comets W 76-74 1545.41 1447.43 59.67% 40.33% +2.76 17-10
2007-08-02 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 84-79 1548.17 1504.44 51.98% 48.02% +5.20 18-10
2007-08-04 @ Seattle Storm L 101-111 1553.37 1514.00 51.36% 48.64% -7.86 18-11
2007-08-07 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 96-93 1545.51 1454.29 58.73% 41.27% +3.46 19-11
2007-08-09 New York Liberty W 97-86 1548.97 1427.96 70.45% 29.55% +4.74 20-11
2007-08-11 Los Angeles Sparks W 100-83 1553.71 1445.55 68.89% 31.11% +6.21 21-11
2007-08-17 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 101-91 1559.92 1567.85 44.57% 55.43% +8.48 22-11
2007-08-19 Sacramento Monarchs W 87-73 1568.40 1559.37 55.59% 44.41% +8.04 23-11
2007-05-19 @ Detroit Shock L 68-75 1575.30 1568.43 46.68% 53.32% -5.97 0-1
2007-05-20 @ Minnesota Lynx W 74-64 1569.33 1421.07 66.40% 33.60% +5.14 1-1
2007-05-22 @ Washington Mystics W 70-52 1574.47 1492.50 57.43% 42.57% +8.74 2-1
2007-05-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 75-76 1583.21 1533.66 52.82% 47.18% -2.56 2-2
2007-06-02 Los Angeles Sparks W 88-85 1580.65 1541.73 59.78% 40.22% +3.38 3-2
2007-06-05 San Antonio Silver Stars W 74-57 1584.03 1469.11 69.72% 30.28% +6.04 4-2
2007-06-07 Seattle Storm W 81-72 1590.07 1509.44 65.40% 34.60% +5.02 5-2
2007-06-09 Phoenix Mercury L 70-74 1595.09 1531.49 63.15% 36.85% -6.11 5-3
2007-06-11 @ Houston Comets W 82-67 1588.98 1451.91 64.95% 35.05% +6.57 6-3
2007-06-16 Houston Comets W 75-63 1595.55 1436.15 74.84% 25.16% +4.22 7-3
2007-06-19 @ Chicago Sky W 54-52 1599.77 1396.89 73.02% 26.98% +1.85 8-3
2007-06-22 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 88-96 1601.62 1518.74 57.56% 42.44% -7.88 8-4
2007-06-23 Detroit Shock W 85-75 1593.74 1611.52 51.75% 48.25% +7.38 9-4
2007-06-26 New York Liberty W 59-46 1601.12 1445.49 74.43% 25.57% +4.47 10-4
2007-06-27 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 66-74 1605.59 1516.89 58.38% 41.62% -8.00 10-5
2007-06-29 Chicago Sky L 84-92 1597.59 1381.05 80.52% 19.48% -11.02 10-6
2007-07-01 Minnesota Lynx W 76-68 1586.57 1418.83 75.73% 24.27% +3.32 11-6
2007-07-06 @ Minnesota Lynx W 85-80 1589.89 1408.33 70.53% 29.47% +3.19 12-6
2007-07-08 @ New York Liberty L 61-71 1593.08 1445.53 66.31% 33.69% -10.15 12-7
2007-07-12 Connecticut Sun L 78-82 1582.93 1545.34 59.60% 40.40% -5.77 12-8
2007-07-20 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-81 1577.16 1497.08 57.17% 42.83% -8.74 12-9
2007-07-24 Los Angeles Sparks W 67-59 1568.42 1477.92 66.67% 33.33% +4.56 13-9
2007-07-26 Indiana Fever W 60-50 1572.98 1563.98 55.58% 44.42% +6.80 14-9
2007-07-29 Minnesota Lynx L 73-78 1579.78 1376.07 79.33% 20.67% -8.59 14-10
2007-07-31 @ Seattle Storm W 78-74 1571.19 1523.05 52.62% 47.38% +4.59 15-10
2007-08-03 Seattle Storm W 82-76 1575.78 1518.47 62.30% 37.70% +4.47 16-10
2007-08-05 @ Indiana Fever L 55-63 1580.25 1537.97 51.78% 48.22% -7.09 16-11
2007-08-07 @ Connecticut Sun W 81-79 1573.16 1582.75 44.34% 55.66% +3.81 17-11
2007-08-09 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 61-72 1576.97 1502.21 56.41% 43.59% -9.06 17-12
2007-08-10 @ Houston Comets L 75-83 1567.91 1448.89 62.55% 37.45% -8.56 17-13
2007-08-12 Washington Mystics W 86-82 1559.35 1483.99 64.71% 35.29% +3.42 18-13
2007-08-15 San Antonio Silver Stars W 81-74 1562.77 1520.14 60.29% 39.71% +5.08 19-13
2007-08-17 Phoenix Mercury L 91-101 1567.85 1559.92 55.43% 44.57% -8.48 19-14
2007-08-19 @ Phoenix Mercury L 73-87 1559.37 1568.40 44.41% 55.59% -8.04 19-15
2007-05-19 @ Phoenix Mercury L 72-81 1448.18 1526.74 34.87% 65.13% -5.07 0-1
2007-05-23 Connecticut Sun W 74-71 1443.11 1581.15 34.93% 65.07% +5.46 1-1
2007-05-25 Seattle Storm W 82-71 1448.57 1528.19 42.90% 57.10% +9.17 2-1
2007-05-29 @ Houston Comets W 82-71 1457.74 1480.39 42.49% 57.51% +9.23 3-1
2007-05-31 Phoenix Mercury L 85-97 1466.97 1536.21 44.37% 55.63% -7.44 3-2
2007-06-02 @ Seattle Storm W 78-68 1459.53 1519.02 37.41% 62.59% +9.58 4-2
2007-06-05 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 57-74 1469.11 1584.03 30.28% 69.72% -6.04 4-3
2007-06-09 Chicago Sky L 60-70 1463.07 1371.83 66.76% 33.24% -10.22 4-4
2007-06-16 New York Liberty W 79-71 1452.85 1459.22 53.39% 46.61% +6.38 5-4
2007-06-20 Minnesota Lynx W 80-73 1459.23 1409.48 61.27% 38.73% +4.96 6-4
2007-06-22 @ New York Liberty W 70-63 1464.19 1458.48 46.52% 53.48% +6.85 7-4
2007-06-23 @ Connecticut Sun W 71-58 1471.04 1548.49 35.02% 64.98% +11.34 8-4
2007-06-26 @ Houston Comets L 67-75 1482.38 1444.69 51.12% 48.88% -7.00 8-5
2007-06-29 Minnesota Lynx L 66-77 1475.38 1408.62 63.57% 36.43% -10.21 8-6
2007-07-01 @ Detroit Shock W 71-68 1465.17 1603.94 27.47% 72.53% +6.09 9-6
2007-07-03 @ Washington Mystics W 84-79 1471.26 1473.23 45.42% 54.58% +5.90 10-6
2007-07-07 Seattle Storm W 80-73 1477.16 1537.68 45.61% 54.39% +6.97 11-6
2007-07-11 @ Phoenix Mercury W 87-77 1484.13 1537.56 38.23% 61.77% +9.45 12-6
2007-07-17 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 63-61 1493.58 1471.69 48.84% 51.16% +3.50 13-6
2007-07-20 Sacramento Monarchs W 81-71 1497.08 1577.16 42.83% 57.17% +8.75 14-6
2007-07-22 @ Chicago Sky L 82-84 1505.83 1387.23 62.49% 37.51% -4.27 14-7
2007-07-24 @ Indiana Fever W 71-63 1501.56 1572.76 35.84% 64.16% +8.78 15-7
2007-07-27 Houston Comets L 63-69 1510.34 1451.07 62.56% 37.44% -7.42 15-8
2007-07-29 @ Seattle Storm W 92-88 1502.92 1528.66 42.05% 57.95% +5.61 16-8
2007-07-31 Detroit Shock L 79-84 1508.53 1624.82 37.82% 62.18% -4.09 16-9
2007-08-02 Phoenix Mercury L 79-84 1504.44 1548.17 48.02% 51.98% -5.20 16-10
2007-08-04 Los Angeles Sparks W 86-67 1499.24 1462.85 59.43% 40.57% +8.56 17-10
2007-08-07 Washington Mystics L 73-77 1507.80 1483.55 57.74% 42.26% -5.59 17-11
2007-08-09 Sacramento Monarchs W 72-61 1502.21 1576.97 43.59% 56.41% +9.06 18-11
2007-08-11 Houston Comets W 63-60 1511.27 1457.46 61.82% 38.18% +3.20 19-11
2007-08-14 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 84-77 1514.47 1445.00 55.66% 44.34% +5.67 20-11
2007-08-15 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 74-81 1520.14 1562.77 39.71% 60.29% -5.08 20-12
2007-08-17 Indiana Fever L 55-59 1515.06 1541.04 50.57% 49.43% -4.90 20-13
2007-08-19 @ Minnesota Lynx L 55-81 1510.16 1392.24 62.40% 37.60% -15.40 20-14
2007-05-19 Houston Comets W 82-69 1512.29 1498.15 56.31% 43.69% +7.62 1-0
2007-05-23 Phoenix Mercury W 100-87 1519.91 1531.80 52.60% 47.40% +8.28 2-0
2007-05-25 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-82 1528.19 1448.57 57.10% 42.90% -9.17 2-1
2007-06-02 San Antonio Silver Stars L 68-78 1519.02 1459.53 62.59% 37.41% -9.58 2-2
2007-06-07 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 72-81 1509.44 1590.07 34.60% 65.40% -5.02 2-3
2007-06-09 Minnesota Lynx W 90-76 1504.42 1391.82 69.43% 30.57% +5.53 3-3
2007-06-12 @ Chicago Sky W 81-69 1509.95 1382.05 63.74% 36.26% +6.08 4-3
2007-06-13 @ Indiana Fever L 62-90 1516.03 1560.60 39.44% 60.56% -10.10 4-4
2007-06-15 Houston Comets W 84-71 1505.93 1442.59 63.11% 36.89% +6.44 5-4
2007-06-20 Detroit Shock L 71-87 1512.37 1599.83 41.80% 58.20% -8.09 5-5
2007-06-22 @ Minnesota Lynx L 76-78 1504.28 1404.52 59.91% 40.09% -4.10 5-6
2007-06-24 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 83-71 1500.18 1526.62 41.96% 58.04% +9.73 6-6
2007-06-26 Chicago Sky W 94-76 1509.91 1387.07 70.67% 29.33% +6.02 7-6
2007-06-28 @ Houston Comets L 76-81 1515.93 1451.68 54.92% 45.08% -5.94 7-7
2007-07-01 New York Liberty W 84-53 1509.99 1452.06 62.38% 37.62% +10.13 8-7
2007-07-03 Los Angeles Sparks W 90-71 1520.12 1507.93 56.03% 43.97% +9.28 9-7
2007-07-06 @ Houston Comets W 71-55 1529.40 1448.83 57.23% 42.77% +8.28 10-7
2007-07-07 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 73-80 1537.68 1477.16 54.39% 45.61% -6.97 10-8
2007-07-10 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 82-47 1530.71 1485.37 52.22% 47.78% +13.69 11-8
2007-07-11 Connecticut Sun L 63-76 1544.40 1535.64 55.55% 44.45% -9.70 11-9
2007-07-17 @ Phoenix Mercury L 79-89 1534.70 1528.10 46.65% 53.35% -7.14 11-10
2007-07-20 @ Connecticut Sun L 58-76 1527.56 1553.76 41.99% 58.01% -8.62 11-11
2007-07-22 @ New York Liberty W 77-75 1518.94 1440.87 56.88% 43.12% +2.95 12-11
2007-07-24 @ Washington Mystics L 96-97 1521.89 1481.96 51.44% 48.56% -2.49 12-12
2007-07-27 Indiana Fever W 89-75 1519.40 1557.18 48.87% 51.13% +9.26 13-12
2007-07-29 San Antonio Silver Stars L 88-92 1528.66 1502.92 57.95% 42.05% -5.61 13-13
2007-07-31 Sacramento Monarchs L 74-78 1523.05 1571.19 47.38% 52.62% -4.58 13-14
2007-08-03 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 76-82 1518.47 1575.78 37.70% 62.30% -4.47 13-15
2007-08-04 Phoenix Mercury W 111-101 1514.00 1553.37 48.64% 51.36% +7.86 14-15
2007-08-07 @ Minnesota Lynx L 74-95 1521.86 1376.61 66.01% 33.99% -14.64 14-16
2007-08-09 @ Detroit Shock L 70-97 1507.22 1631.87 29.11% 70.89% -7.33 14-17
2007-08-11 Washington Mystics W 91-68 1499.89 1494.42 55.08% 44.92% +10.43 15-17
2007-08-14 Minnesota Lynx W 81-67 1510.32 1385.60 70.90% 29.10% +5.27 16-17
2007-08-17 Los Angeles Sparks W 97-77 1515.59 1439.32 64.83% 35.17% +7.62 17-17
2007-05-19 Connecticut Sun L 80-89 1498.80 1574.85 43.40% 56.60% -6.30 0-1
2007-05-22 Sacramento Monarchs L 52-70 1492.50 1574.47 42.57% 57.43% -8.74 0-2
2007-05-24 @ New York Liberty L 76-81 1483.76 1448.06 50.83% 49.17% -5.50 0-3
2007-05-30 @ Detroit Shock L 79-94 1478.26 1578.28 32.12% 67.88% -6.02 0-4
2007-06-01 Chicago Sky L 70-75 1472.24 1363.33 68.98% 31.02% -7.47 0-5
2007-06-03 @ Indiana Fever L 66-70 1464.77 1546.32 34.48% 65.52% -3.34 0-6
2007-06-08 Indiana Fever L 69-74 1461.43 1548.94 41.79% 58.21% -4.52 0-7
2007-06-12 @ New York Liberty L 69-79 1456.91 1459.80 45.29% 54.71% -6.93 0-8
2007-06-13 Phoenix Mercury W 86-69 1449.98 1537.60 41.77% 58.23% +11.62 1-8
2007-06-15 Los Angeles Sparks L 80-89 1461.60 1543.36 42.60% 57.40% -6.19 1-9
2007-06-20 @ Phoenix Mercury W 106-101 1455.41 1535.71 34.65% 65.35% +7.08 2-9
2007-06-22 @ Houston Comets L 85-95 1462.49 1441.02 48.78% 51.22% -7.47 2-10
2007-06-23 @ Chicago Sky W 99-86 1455.02 1395.04 54.31% 45.69% +7.97 3-10
2007-06-26 @ Connecticut Sun W 91-75 1462.99 1537.15 35.45% 64.55% +12.50 4-10
2007-06-29 Detroit Shock W 65-64 1475.49 1607.05 35.78% 64.22% +3.11 5-10
2007-07-01 Indiana Fever L 62-69 1478.60 1565.01 41.94% 58.06% -5.37 5-11
2007-07-03 San Antonio Silver Stars L 79-84 1473.23 1471.26 54.58% 45.42% -5.91 5-12
2007-07-07 @ Chicago Sky W 77-73 1467.32 1397.98 55.65% 44.35% +4.29 6-12
2007-07-10 Minnesota Lynx W 91-83 1471.61 1396.89 64.62% 35.38% +4.85 7-12
2007-07-18 Houston Comets W 65-58 1476.46 1452.16 57.74% 42.26% +5.41 8-12
2007-07-20 @ Minnesota Lynx W 91-87 1481.87 1383.56 59.71% 40.29% +3.90 9-12
2007-07-21 @ Detroit Shock L 58-66 1485.77 1621.51 27.81% 72.19% -3.81 9-13
2007-07-24 Seattle Storm W 97-96 1481.96 1521.89 48.56% 51.44% +2.49 10-13
2007-07-28 Detroit Shock L 64-76 1484.45 1617.12 35.63% 64.37% -5.97 10-14
2007-07-31 @ Indiana Fever L 57-66 1478.48 1542.86 36.75% 63.25% -5.34 10-15
2007-08-03 New York Liberty W 80-68 1473.14 1427.53 60.70% 39.30% +6.59 11-15
2007-08-05 Chicago Sky W 71-66 1479.73 1404.52 64.69% 35.31% +3.82 12-15
2007-08-07 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 77-73 1483.55 1507.80 42.26% 57.74% +5.59 13-15
2007-08-09 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 80-75 1489.14 1450.83 51.20% 48.80% +5.28 14-15
2007-08-11 @ Seattle Storm L 68-91 1494.42 1499.89 44.92% 55.08% -10.43 14-16
2007-08-12 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 82-86 1483.99 1559.35 35.29% 64.71% -3.41 14-17
2007-08-14 Connecticut Sun W 65-64 1480.58 1585.61 39.36% 60.64% +2.93 15-17
2007-08-16 New York Liberty L 72-73 1483.51 1418.30 63.36% 36.64% -3.07 15-18
2007-08-19 @ Connecticut Sun W 76-74 1480.44 1577.39 32.51% 67.49% +4.62 16-18

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2007-08-23 Indiana Fever W 93-88 1572.77 1552.55 57.17% 42.83% +4.64 1-0
2007-08-25 @ Indiana Fever L 59-78 1577.41 1547.92 49.94% 50.06% -10.54 1-1
2007-08-27 @ Indiana Fever L 88-93 1566.87 1558.45 46.91% 53.09% -5.07 1-2
2007-08-24 @ New York Liberty L 51-73 1610.03 1435.81 69.65% 30.35% -15.81 0-1
2007-08-26 New York Liberty W 76-73 1594.22 1451.62 72.97% 27.03% +2.27 1-1
2007-08-28 New York Liberty W 71-70 1596.49 1449.35 73.48% 26.52% +1.28 2-1
2007-08-31 @ Indiana Fever L 65-75 1597.77 1563.53 50.62% 49.38% -7.75 2-2
2007-09-02 Indiana Fever W 77-63 1590.02 1571.28 56.96% 43.04% +7.80 3-2
2007-09-03 Indiana Fever W 81-65 1597.82 1563.48 59.15% 40.85% +7.91 4-2
2007-09-05 Phoenix Mercury W 108-100 1605.73 1596.79 55.57% 44.43% +6.08 5-2
2007-09-08 Phoenix Mercury L 70-98 1611.81 1590.71 57.29% 42.71% -14.67 5-3
2007-09-11 @ Phoenix Mercury W 88-83 1597.14 1605.38 44.53% 55.47% +6.00 6-3
2007-09-13 @ Phoenix Mercury L 76-77 1603.14 1599.38 46.24% 53.76% -2.24 6-4
2007-09-16 Phoenix Mercury L 92-108 1600.90 1601.62 54.20% 45.80% -10.49 6-5
2007-08-23 @ Connecticut Sun L 88-93 1552.55 1572.77 42.83% 57.17% -4.63 0-1
2007-08-25 Connecticut Sun W 78-59 1547.92 1577.41 50.06% 49.94% +10.53 1-1
2007-08-27 Connecticut Sun W 93-88 1558.45 1566.87 53.09% 46.91% +5.08 2-1
2007-08-31 Detroit Shock W 75-65 1563.53 1597.77 49.38% 50.62% +7.75 3-1
2007-09-02 @ Detroit Shock L 63-77 1571.28 1590.02 43.04% 56.96% -7.80 3-2
2007-09-03 @ Detroit Shock L 65-81 1563.48 1597.82 40.85% 59.15% -7.91 3-3
2007-08-24 Detroit Shock W 73-51 1435.81 1610.03 30.35% 69.65% +15.81 1-0
2007-08-26 @ Detroit Shock L 73-76 1451.62 1594.22 27.03% 72.97% -2.27 1-1
2007-08-28 @ Detroit Shock L 70-71 1449.35 1596.49 26.52% 73.48% -1.28 1-2
2007-08-24 @ Seattle Storm W 101-84 1576.44 1523.21 53.35% 46.65% +9.31 1-0
2007-08-26 Seattle Storm W 95-89 1585.75 1513.90 64.24% 35.76% +4.24 2-0
2007-08-30 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 102-100 1589.99 1503.57 58.06% 41.94% +2.87 3-0
2007-09-01 San Antonio Silver Stars W 98-92 1592.86 1500.69 66.88% 33.12% +3.93 4-0
2007-09-05 @ Detroit Shock L 100-108 1596.79 1605.73 44.43% 55.57% -6.08 4-1
2007-09-08 @ Detroit Shock W 98-70 1590.71 1611.81 42.71% 57.29% +14.67 5-1
2007-09-11 Detroit Shock L 83-88 1605.38 1597.14 55.47% 44.53% -6.00 5-2
2007-09-13 Detroit Shock W 77-76 1599.38 1603.14 53.76% 46.24% +2.24 6-2
2007-09-16 @ Detroit Shock W 108-92 1601.62 1600.90 45.80% 54.20% +10.49 7-2
2007-08-23 San Antonio Silver Stars W 86-65 1551.33 1494.76 62.20% 37.80% +8.38 1-0
2007-08-25 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 61-86 1559.71 1486.38 56.21% 43.79% -13.60 1-1
2007-08-27 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 78-80 1546.11 1499.98 52.33% 47.67% -3.59 1-2
2007-08-23 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 65-86 1494.76 1551.33 37.80% 62.20% -8.38 0-1
2007-08-25 Sacramento Monarchs W 86-61 1486.38 1559.71 43.79% 56.21% +13.60 1-1
2007-08-27 Sacramento Monarchs W 80-78 1499.98 1546.11 47.67% 52.33% +3.59 2-1
2007-08-30 Phoenix Mercury L 100-102 1503.57 1589.99 41.94% 58.06% -2.88 2-2
2007-09-01 @ Phoenix Mercury L 92-98 1500.69 1592.86 33.12% 66.88% -3.92 2-3
2007-08-24 Phoenix Mercury L 84-101 1523.21 1576.44 46.65% 53.35% -9.31 0-1
2007-08-26 @ Phoenix Mercury L 89-95 1513.90 1585.75 35.76% 64.24% -4.24 0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-07-26 17.60% Chicago Sky 1391.51 83 @ Detroit Shock 1629.73 73
2 2007-06-29 19.48% Chicago Sky 1381.05 92 @ Sacramento Monarchs 1597.59 84
3 2007-07-29 20.67% Minnesota Lynx 1376.07 78 @ Sacramento Monarchs 1579.78 73
4 2007-08-16 22.16% @ Minnesota Lynx 1380.33 87 Detroit Shock 1628.57 77
5 2007-08-14 22.50% Houston Comets 1454.26 81 @ Detroit Shock 1639.18 73
6 2007-06-17 23.16% Chicago Sky 1383.48 87 @ Connecticut Sun 1561.91 74
7 2007-08-12 25.13% @ New York Liberty 1423.22 85 Detroit Shock 1642.80 84
8 2007-07-06 25.54% New York Liberty 1441.92 82 @ Detroit Shock 1597.86 81
9 2007-06-05 26.35% Minnesota Lynx 1386.10 90 @ Phoenix Mercury 1534.72 85
10 2007-07-01 27.47% San Antonio Silver Stars 1465.17 71 @ Detroit Shock 1603.94 68
11 2007-07-21 27.58% @ Chicago Sky 1381.16 68 Indiana Fever 1578.83 65
12 2007-06-13 28.95% @ Minnesota Lynx 1386.28 77 Connecticut Sun 1572.21 73
13 2007-07-01 29.46% Chicago Sky 1392.07 74 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1513.84 71
14 2007-08-24 * 30.35% @ New York Liberty 1435.81 73 Detroit Shock 1610.03 51
15 2007-06-01 31.02% Chicago Sky 1363.33 75 @ Washington Mystics 1472.24 70
16 2007-08-17 31.44% @ New York Liberty 1421.37 74 Connecticut Sun 1586.78 66
17 2007-08-19 32.51% Washington Mystics 1480.44 76 @ Connecticut Sun 1577.39 74
18 2007-06-16 32.57% @ Minnesota Lynx 1393.16 83 Los Angeles Sparks 1549.54 58
19 2007-06-20 32.67% New York Liberty 1452.84 76 @ Connecticut Sun 1548.50 73
20 2007-06-09 33.24% Chicago Sky 1371.83 70 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1463.07 60
21 2007-07-08 33.69% @ New York Liberty 1445.53 71 Sacramento Monarchs 1593.08 61
22 2007-08-07 33.99% @ Minnesota Lynx 1376.61 95 Seattle Storm 1521.86 74
23 2007-06-29 34.19% New York Liberty 1441.03 80 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1524.88 68
24 2007-06-20 34.65% Washington Mystics 1455.41 106 @ Phoenix Mercury 1535.71 101
25 2007-05-23 34.93% @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1443.11 74 Connecticut Sun 1581.15 71

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-06-16 16.32 @ Minnesota Lynx 83 1393.16 32.57% Los Angeles Sparks 58 1549.54 67.43%
2 2007-08-24 * 15.81 @ New York Liberty 73 1435.81 30.35% Detroit Shock 51 1610.03 69.65%
3 2007-08-19 15.40 @ Minnesota Lynx 81 1392.24 37.60% San Antonio Silver Stars 55 1510.16 62.40%
4 2007-09-08 * 14.67 Phoenix Mercury 98 1590.71 42.71% @ Detroit Shock 70 1611.81 57.29%
5 2007-08-07 14.64 @ Minnesota Lynx 95 1376.61 33.99% Seattle Storm 74 1521.86 66.01%
6 2007-07-10 13.69 Seattle Storm 82 1530.71 52.22% @ Los Angeles Sparks 47 1485.37 47.78%
7 2007-08-25 * 13.60 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 86 1486.38 43.79% Sacramento Monarchs 61 1559.71 56.21%
8 2007-06-17 13.41 Chicago Sky 87 1383.48 23.16% @ Connecticut Sun 74 1561.91 76.84%
9 2007-05-26 13.18 Los Angeles Sparks 88 1528.55 39.09% @ Connecticut Sun 68 1575.69 60.91%
10 2007-07-26 12.61 Chicago Sky 83 1391.51 17.60% @ Detroit Shock 73 1629.73 82.40%
11 2007-06-26 12.50 Washington Mystics 91 1462.99 35.45% @ Connecticut Sun 75 1537.15 64.55%
12 2007-08-16 11.92 @ Minnesota Lynx 87 1380.33 22.16% Detroit Shock 77 1628.57 77.84%
13 2007-06-13 11.62 @ Washington Mystics 86 1449.98 41.77% Phoenix Mercury 69 1537.60 58.23%
14 2007-06-23 11.34 San Antonio Silver Stars 71 1471.04 35.02% @ Connecticut Sun 58 1548.49 64.98%
15 2007-07-07 11.15 Connecticut Sun 110 1524.49 49.72% @ Los Angeles Sparks 89 1496.52 50.28%
16 2007-07-29 11.06 @ Chicago Sky 88 1401.69 46.14% Houston Comets 70 1458.49 53.86%
17 2007-06-29 11.04 New York Liberty 80 1441.03 34.19% @ Los Angeles Sparks 68 1524.88 65.81%
18 2007-06-29 11.02 Chicago Sky 92 1381.05 19.48% @ Sacramento Monarchs 84 1597.59 80.52%
19 2007-08-14 10.61 Houston Comets 81 1454.26 22.50% @ Detroit Shock 73 1639.18 77.50%
20 2007-08-25 * 10.54 @ Indiana Fever 78 1547.92 50.06% Connecticut Sun 59 1577.41 49.94%
21 2007-09-16 * 10.49 Phoenix Mercury 108 1601.62 45.80% @ Detroit Shock 92 1600.90 54.20%
22 2007-08-11 10.43 @ Seattle Storm 91 1499.89 55.08% Washington Mystics 68 1494.42 44.92%
23 2007-08-04 10.23 @ Connecticut Sun 84 1572.52 57.75% Indiana Fever 59 1548.19 42.25%
24 2007-06-09 10.22 Chicago Sky 70 1371.83 33.24% @ San Antonio Silver Stars 60 1463.07 66.76%
25 2007-06-29 10.21 Minnesota Lynx 77 1408.62 36.43% @ San Antonio Silver Stars 66 1475.38 63.57%