Home / Leagues / WNBA / 1997

1997 WNBA Season

112 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New York Liberty

1st Title

Runner-Up

Phoenix Mercury

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Comets

1.69 wins above expected

18 wins · 16.31 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Utah Starzz

3.66 wins below expected

7 wins · 10.66 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Houston Comets League 18 10 .643 - 71.9 65.5 +6.3 16.31 +1.69
2 New York Liberty Playoffs 17 11 .607 1 68.4 65.9 +2.5 16.17 +0.83
3 Charlotte Sting Playoffs 15 13 .536 3 67.3 66.0 +1.3 14.37 +0.63
4 Cleveland Rockers 15 13 .536 3 70.2 68.4 +1.8 13.85 +1.15
# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Phoenix Mercury League 16 12 .571 - 69.2 65.4 +3.9 15.03 +0.97
2 Los Angeles Sparks 14 14 .500 2 74.3 72.5 +1.9 13.81 +0.19
3 Sacramento Monarchs 10 18 .357 6 68.6 75.8 -7.1 11.79 -1.79
4 Utah Starzz 7 21 .250 9 64.6 75.1 -10.5 10.66 -3.66

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Conference Semifinals

Houston Comets 1
Charlotte Sting 0

1 games · Aug 28–Aug 28

Conference Final

Houston Comets 1
New York Liberty 0

1 games · Aug 30–Aug 30

Western Conference

WNBA Finals

New York Liberty 1
Phoenix Mercury 0

1 games · Aug 28–Aug 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Houston Comets Eastern 1589 18 16.31 +1.69 81.00% 5 12 15 16 18 20 26
Phoenix Mercury Western 1549 16 15.03 +0.97 71.93% 4 11 13 15 17 19 25
Cleveland Rockers Eastern 1532 15 13.85 +1.15 74.29% 3 10 12 14 16 18 24
Los Angeles Sparks Western 1526 14 13.81 +0.19 60.89% 3 10 12 14 16 18 25
New York Liberty Eastern 1516 17 16.17 +0.83 70.08% 5 12 15 16 18 20 27
Charlotte Sting Eastern 1514 15 14.37 +0.63 67.14% 2 10 13 14 16 19 26
Sacramento Monarchs Western 1418 10 11.79 -1.79 30.21% 2 8 10 12 13 16 23
Utah Starzz Western 1356 7 10.66 -3.66 9.69% 2 7 9 11 12 15 22

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Eastern

Team Sting Rockers Comets Liberty
Charlotte Sting
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.6 exp.)
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
Cleveland Rockers
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
Houston Comets
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
1-3
(2.1 exp.)
New York Liberty
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
3-1
(1.9 exp.)

Eastern vs. Outside Teams

Team Sparks Mercury Monarchs Starzz
Charlotte Sting
3-1
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
3-1
(2.6 exp.)
Cleveland Rockers
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
4-0
(2.3 exp.)
Houston Comets
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
3-1
(2.7 exp.)
New York Liberty
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
2-2
(2.8 exp.)

Within Western

Team Sparks Mercury Monarchs Starzz
Los Angeles Sparks
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
4-0
(2.5 exp.)
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
0-4
(1.5 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
Utah Starzz
1-3
(1.6 exp.)
1-3
(1.5 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)

Western vs. Outside Teams

Team Sting Rockers Comets Liberty
Los Angeles Sparks
1-3
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
1-3
(1.5 exp.)
1-3
(1.5 exp.)
Utah Starzz
1-3
(1.4 exp.)
0-4
(1.7 exp.)
1-3
(1.3 exp.)
2-2
(1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<501.34%0.89%0.45%2.68%
50–591.79%5.80%7.59%0.89%16.07%
60–691.34%5.80%5.36%14.73%3.12%0.89%31.25%
70–790.89%7.59%14.73%9.82%3.12%0.45%36.61%
80–890.45%0.89%3.12%3.12%2.68%0.45%10.71%
90+0.89%0.45%0.45%0.89%2.68%
Total2.68%16.07%31.25%36.61%10.71%2.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 69.31 69.31 +0.00
SD 10.58 10.58 14.34
CV 0.15 0.15
Max 102 102 +32
Min 43 43 -32

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<507.14%3.57%10.71%
50–5910.71%10.71%
60–693.57%7.14%10.71%14.29%35.71%
70–793.57%7.14%10.71%10.71%32.14%
80–897.14%3.57%10.71%
90+
Total7.14%14.29%35.71%39.29%3.57%100%

Charlotte Sting — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 67.32 66.04 +1.29
SD 10.46 10.15 16.19
CV 0.16 0.15
Max 87 81 +29
Min 47 43 -32

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<503.57%3.57%7.14%
50–597.14%7.14%14.29%
60–693.57%3.57%10.71%17.86%
70–797.14%21.43%10.71%3.57%42.86%
80–893.57%3.57%7.14%14.29%
90+3.57%3.57%
Total7.14%7.14%39.29%35.71%10.71%100%

Cleveland Rockers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 70.18 68.39 +1.79
SD 12.24 9.77 15.20
CV 0.17 0.14
Max 95 87 +32
Min 43 47 -29

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<50
50–597.14%3.57%10.71%
60–697.14%10.71%17.86%
70–7925.00%17.86%10.71%3.57%57.14%
80–893.57%7.14%3.57%14.29%
90+
Total28.57%39.29%28.57%3.57%100%

Houston Comets — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 71.86 65.54 +6.32
SD 8.65 7.73 13.33
CV 0.12 0.12
Max 89 80 +28
Min 52 55 -25

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<50
50–593.57%7.14%3.57%14.29%
60–693.57%14.29%17.86%
70–797.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%39.29%
80–893.57%3.57%10.71%3.57%21.43%
90+3.57%3.57%7.14%
Total14.29%28.57%32.14%17.86%7.14%100%

Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.32 72.46 +1.86
SD 11.54 12.10 12.65
CV 0.16 0.17
Max 102 102 +25
Min 56 50 -24

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<50
50–597.14%3.57%10.71%
60–693.57%21.43%10.71%7.14%3.57%46.43%
70–793.57%14.29%14.29%3.57%35.71%
80–893.57%3.57%7.14%
90+
Total3.57%28.57%32.14%28.57%7.14%100%

New York Liberty — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 68.39 65.86 +2.54
SD 8.08 9.51 11.64
CV 0.12 0.14
Max 80 87 +26
Min 50 48 -19

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<50
50–597.14%3.57%7.14%17.86%
60–6910.71%10.71%14.29%35.71%
70–793.57%10.71%14.29%3.57%3.57%35.71%
80–897.14%3.57%10.71%
90+
Total3.57%28.57%35.71%25.00%7.14%100%

Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 69.21 65.36 +3.86
SD 8.59 10.31 13.29
CV 0.12 0.16
Max 84 86 +32
Min 51 46 -20

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<50
50–597.14%7.14%14.29%
60–693.57%17.86%21.43%42.86%
70–7917.86%7.14%7.14%32.14%
80–893.57%3.57%
90+3.57%3.57%7.14%
Total3.57%25.00%39.29%28.57%3.57%100%

Sacramento Monarchs — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 68.61 75.75 -7.14
SD 10.97 9.69 13.21
CV 0.16 0.13
Max 93 102 +15
Min 51 58 -28

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990+Total
<503.57%3.57%
50–593.57%7.14%21.43%3.57%35.71%
60–6928.57%7.14%35.71%
70–797.14%7.14%3.57%17.86%
80–893.57%3.57%
90+3.57%3.57%
Total3.57%14.29%64.29%7.14%10.71%100%

Utah Starzz — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 64.61 75.11 -10.50
SD 11.62 9.21 11.89
CV 0.18 0.12
Max 102 95 +13
Min 46 51 -32

Games Played: 28

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.31 +7.0
Allowed 0.81 -7.5
Differential 0.96 +6.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Houston Comets 18 16.31 +1.69
2 Cleveland Rockers 15 13.85 +1.15
3 Phoenix Mercury 16 15.03 +0.97
4 New York Liberty 17 16.17 +0.83
5 Charlotte Sting 15 14.37 +0.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Utah Starzz 7 10.66 -3.66
2 Sacramento Monarchs 10 11.79 -1.79
3 Los Angeles Sparks 14 13.81 +0.19
4 Charlotte Sting 15 14.37 +0.63
5 New York Liberty 17 16.17 +0.83

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cleveland Rockers 8 Jul 17 – Aug 2 1 in 375
2 New York Liberty 7 Jun 21 – Jul 5 1 in 234
3 Charlotte Sting 4 Jul 26 – Aug 3 1 in 19
4 Sacramento Monarchs 4 Aug 6 – Aug 12 1 in 18
5 Houston Comets 5 Aug 5 – Aug 12 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Phoenix Mercury 6 Jul 22 – Aug 2 1 in 126
2 Sacramento Monarchs 9 Jul 16 – Aug 4 1 in 73
3 Cleveland Rockers 4 Jun 28 – Jul 6 1 in 15
4 New York Liberty 4 Aug 17 – Aug 23 1 in 13
5 Utah Starzz 6 Aug 6 – Aug 17 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team1234
Houston Comets38.88%29.52%19.99%11.62%
New York Liberty36.09%30.01%21.11%12.78%
Charlotte Sting14.25%21.97%30.21%33.57%
Cleveland Rockers10.78%18.50%28.69%42.03%
Team1234
Phoenix Mercury53.72%28.38%12.97%4.93%
Los Angeles Sparks30.76%36.11%22.31%10.82%
Sacramento Monarchs10.50%21.79%35.91%31.81%
Utah Starzz5.03%13.72%28.81%52.44%
Team12345678
Houston Comets30.01%21.93%16.32%12.48%8.88%5.78%3.27%1.32%
New York Liberty27.75%21.91%16.80%12.58%9.54%6.49%3.56%1.37%
Phoenix Mercury15.22%16.80%16.99%15.82%13.36%10.81%7.34%3.67%
Charlotte Sting10.22%13.25%15.14%15.95%15.44%13.78%10.35%5.87%
Cleveland Rockers7.49%10.73%13.23%15.05%16.04%15.88%13.26%8.32%
Los Angeles Sparks7.23%10.66%13.07%14.85%16.27%15.96%13.59%8.36%
Sacramento Monarchs1.51%3.26%5.65%8.38%12.34%17.67%24.87%26.33%
Utah Starzz0.56%1.46%2.80%4.88%8.14%13.63%23.76%44.76%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 SeedMissed Playoffs
Houston Comets30.01%21.93%16.32%12.48%19.25%
New York Liberty27.75%21.91%16.80%12.58%20.95%
Phoenix Mercury15.22%16.80%16.99%15.82%35.17%
Charlotte Sting10.22%13.25%15.14%15.95%45.44%
Cleveland Rockers7.49%10.73%13.23%15.05%53.50%
Los Angeles Sparks7.23%10.66%13.07%14.85%54.18%
Sacramento Monarchs1.51%3.26%5.65%8.38%81.20%
Utah Starzz0.56%1.46%2.80%4.88%90.30%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeAway
+25.00%
Fortress
62.50%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 88.74 Elo pts.
21 Elo
0.048 points per Elo point
060
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+4.36 points
Home-Tilted
-8+4.27+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th · Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Run Odds
Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.2
Open Race
1248
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
New York Liberty, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Run Odds
Coin-flip
58.2%
Favored
050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 2 · As Expected: 2 to 2.75 · Elevated: 2.75 to 3.75 · High Variance: 3.75 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 · Close: 1.34 to 1.81 · Off Target: 1.81 to 2.36 · Well Off Target: 2.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 8 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.4 · As Expected: 0.4 to 0.96 · Several Outliers: 0.96 to 1.76 · Many Outliers: 1.76 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.91 · As Expected: 0.91 to 1.51 · More Than Expected: 1.51 to 2.42 · Far More Than Expected: 2.42 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.69 wins
Subdued
02.506
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.12
Pinpoint
01.584
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
81.00%
Houston Comets
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.69%
Utah Starzz
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
0 of 4
Fewer Than Expected
01.24

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 15 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.75
Compressed
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Lopsided
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
12%
Mostly Decisive
0%16%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Routine
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.23
Hard to Predict
00.221
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Wide Gaps
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.47
Tighter Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
37%
As Expected
0%36%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.13 · Above Noise: 0.13 to 0.26 · Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.104
Within Noise
00.1300.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Finals Won Finals
Houston Comets 80.75% 51.04% 30.78%
New York Liberty 79.05% 40.32% 19.12%
Phoenix Mercury 64.83% 33.70% 17.26%
Charlotte Sting 54.56% 24.62% 10.94%
Cleveland Rockers 46.50% 21.89% 10.22%
Los Angeles Sparks 45.82% 21.01% 9.59%
Sacramento Monarchs 18.80% 5.32% 1.60%
Utah Starzz 9.70% 2.10% 0.49%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charlotte StingCleveland RockersHouston CometsLos Angeles SparksNew York LibertyPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsUtah Starzz
Charlotte Sting47.9%6.46%36.2%14.08%49.5%6.38%46.0%14.00%43.4%10.22%67.3%2.30%76.3%1.12%
Cleveland Rockers52.1%6.46%38.0%12.05%50.6%5.13%47.2%11.87%46.5%8.34%69.1%1.78%74.8%0.87%
Houston Comets63.8%14.08%62.0%12.05%63.4%12.02%60.3%18.23%58.8%16.77%78.3%4.96%84.4%2.63%
Los Angeles Sparks50.5%6.38%49.4%5.13%36.6%12.02%46.6%11.39%45.4%8.46%67.6%1.64%74.5%0.80%
New York Liberty54.0%14.00%52.8%11.87%39.7%18.23%53.4%11.39%48.4%16.35%70.4%4.71%77.1%2.49%
Phoenix Mercury56.6%10.22%53.5%8.34%41.2%16.77%54.6%8.46%51.6%16.35%72.4%3.16%78.7%1.53%
Sacramento Monarchs32.7%2.30%30.9%1.78%21.7%4.96%32.4%1.64%29.6%4.71%27.6%3.16%57.7%0.25%
Utah Starzz23.7%1.12%25.2%0.87%15.6%2.63%25.5%0.80%22.9%2.49%21.3%1.53%42.3%0.25%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charlotte StingCleveland RockersHouston CometsLos Angeles SparksNew York LibertyPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsUtah Starzz
Charlotte Sting48.6%2.71%38.0%8.10%48.2%2.66%47.1%5.69%43.1%4.58%67.9%0.65%74.2%0.22%
Cleveland Rockers51.4%2.71%40.4%7.11%51.2%2.36%47.9%4.94%45.9%4.02%67.9%0.56%78.5%0.20%
Houston Comets62.0%8.10%59.6%7.11%62.0%6.72%59.5%15.14%56.3%11.76%76.2%1.58%80.8%0.64%
Los Angeles Sparks51.8%2.66%48.8%2.36%38.0%6.72%48.5%4.76%45.7%3.80%64.3%0.51%70.6%0.20%
New York Liberty52.9%5.69%52.1%4.94%40.5%15.14%51.5%4.76%47.1%8.27%66.9%1.10%76.8%0.42%
Phoenix Mercury56.9%4.58%54.1%4.02%43.7%11.76%54.3%3.80%52.9%8.27%69.2%0.89%76.4%0.38%
Sacramento Monarchs32.1%0.65%32.1%0.56%23.8%1.58%35.7%0.51%33.1%1.10%30.8%0.89%55.6%0.04%
Utah Starzz25.8%0.22%21.5%0.20%19.2%0.64%29.4%0.20%23.2%0.42%23.6%0.38%44.4%0.04%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Advanced to Finals Won Finals Actual Outcome
New York Liberty 58.17% 22.05% Won Finals
Phoenix Mercury 41.83% 17.87% Eliminated in Finals
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charlotte StingHouston CometsNew York LibertyPhoenix Mercury
Charlotte Sting28.3%100.00%
Houston Comets71.7%100.00%
New York Liberty58.2%100.00%
Phoenix Mercury41.8%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charlotte StingHouston CometsNew York LibertyPhoenix Mercury
Charlotte Sting38.3%16.50%33.3%11.80%
Houston Comets71.5%41.68%66.7%30.03%
New York Liberty61.7%16.50%28.5%41.68%
Phoenix Mercury66.7%11.80%33.3%30.03%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Houston Comets 49.84% chance to win
Semifinals
vs. Charlotte Sting
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
71.70%
Finals
vs. New York Liberty
Matchup
59.81%
Win Prob
71.54%
New York Liberty 22.05% chance to win
Semifinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
58.17%
Finals
vs. Houston Comets
Matchup
53.81%
Win Prob
28.46%
Phoenix Mercury 17.87% chance to win
Semifinals
vs. New York Liberty
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
41.83%
Finals
vs. Houston Comets
Matchup
55.94%
Win Prob
33.30%
Charlotte Sting 10.24% chance to win
Semifinals
vs. Houston Comets
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
28.30%
Finals
vs. New York Liberty
Matchup
61.64%
Win Prob
38.25%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1997-06-22 @ Phoenix Mercury L 59-76 1500.00 1500.00 37.50% 62.50% -11.18 0-1
1997-06-25 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 54-74 1488.82 1475.93 39.25% 60.75% -12.69 0-2
1997-06-26 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 70-78 1476.13 1499.30 34.43% 65.57% -7.04 0-3
1997-06-29 Cleveland Rockers W 67-44 1469.09 1479.44 61.09% 38.91% +13.49 1-3
1997-07-05 Los Angeles Sparks W 78-66 1482.58 1507.36 59.10% 40.90% +10.24 2-3
1997-07-07 @ Houston Comets L 56-74 1492.82 1529.36 32.71% 67.29% -10.03 2-4
1997-07-09 New York Liberty W 87-69 1482.79 1559.14 51.78% 48.22% +14.79 3-4
1997-07-10 @ New York Liberty L 48-62 1497.58 1544.35 31.43% 68.57% -8.50 3-5
1997-07-12 Cleveland Rockers W 72-43 1489.08 1476.07 64.24% 35.76% +13.92 4-5
1997-07-16 Utah Starzz W 75-63 1503.00 1423.30 72.50% 27.50% +6.89 5-5
1997-07-17 @ Cleveland Rockers L 47-65 1509.89 1443.17 46.84% 53.16% -14.37 5-6
1997-07-21 Los Angeles Sparks W 75-64 1495.52 1487.21 63.61% 36.39% +8.72 6-6
1997-07-23 New York Liberty L 63-65 1504.24 1569.93 53.31% 46.69% -5.45 6-7
1997-07-26 @ New York Liberty W 64-61 1498.79 1575.38 27.85% 72.15% +9.04 7-7
1997-07-30 Phoenix Mercury W 68-67 1507.83 1525.74 60.05% 39.95% +2.89 8-7
1997-08-01 Sacramento Monarchs W 85-61 1510.72 1412.18 74.61% 25.39% +8.99 9-7
1997-08-03 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 77-70 1519.71 1486.84 42.03% 57.97% +11.09 10-7
1997-08-04 @ Utah Starzz L 70-73 1530.80 1407.24 54.99% 45.01% -6.89 10-8
1997-08-06 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 64-77 1523.91 1387.52 56.81% 43.19% -14.81 10-9
1997-08-09 Phoenix Mercury W 79-59 1509.10 1520.81 60.91% 39.09% +12.64 11-9
1997-08-11 Houston Comets L 62-72 1521.74 1586.39 53.46% 46.54% -12.22 11-10
1997-08-14 Sacramento Monarchs W 68-51 1509.52 1432.41 72.21% 27.79% +8.28 12-10
1997-08-16 Houston Comets W 80-71 1517.80 1603.34 50.46% 49.54% +10.75 13-10
1997-08-17 @ Cleveland Rockers L 49-81 1528.55 1516.19 39.18% 60.82% -16.03 13-11
1997-08-19 @ Houston Comets L 69-77 1512.52 1608.07 25.71% 74.29% -5.26 13-12
1997-08-21 @ Utah Starzz W 66-56 1507.26 1372.66 56.56% 43.44% +9.94 14-12
1997-08-22 @ Phoenix Mercury L 63-78 1517.20 1533.46 35.33% 64.67% -9.90 14-13
1997-08-24 Utah Starzz W 70-52 1507.30 1362.73 79.30% 20.70% +6.35 15-13
1997-06-21 Houston Comets L 56-76 1500.00 1500.00 62.50% 37.50% -20.21 0-1
1997-06-26 Utah Starzz W 74-63 1479.79 1495.49 60.36% 39.64% +9.51 1-1
1997-06-28 Phoenix Mercury L 63-68 1489.30 1500.36 61.00% 39.00% -9.86 1-2
1997-06-29 @ Charlotte Sting L 44-67 1479.44 1469.09 38.91% 61.09% -13.49 1-3
1997-07-03 Los Angeles Sparks L 62-74 1465.95 1492.62 58.84% 41.16% -14.74 1-4
1997-07-06 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 67-70 1451.21 1486.50 32.87% 67.13% -4.12 1-5
1997-07-07 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 81-70 1447.09 1497.12 31.03% 68.97% +16.54 2-5
1997-07-10 Sacramento Monarchs W 77-61 1463.63 1503.51 56.99% 43.01% +12.44 3-5
1997-07-12 @ Charlotte Sting L 43-72 1476.07 1489.08 35.76% 64.24% -13.92 3-6
1997-07-14 New York Liberty L 57-68 1462.15 1552.86 49.72% 50.28% -11.92 3-7
1997-07-15 @ New York Liberty L 59-76 1450.23 1564.78 23.68% 76.32% -7.06 3-8
1997-07-17 Charlotte Sting W 65-47 1443.17 1509.89 53.16% 46.84% +14.36 4-8
1997-07-19 Utah Starzz W 95-68 1457.53 1409.15 68.77% 31.23% +11.74 5-8
1997-07-23 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 89-85 1469.27 1478.48 36.27% 63.73% +9.21 6-8
1997-07-26 @ Utah Starzz W 77-66 1478.48 1413.32 46.61% 53.39% +12.80 7-8
1997-07-28 @ Phoenix Mercury W 76-64 1491.28 1543.07 30.81% 69.19% +17.33 8-8
1997-07-29 @ Houston Comets W 73-64 1508.61 1578.01 28.69% 71.31% +15.47 9-8
1997-07-31 Phoenix Mercury W 79-67 1524.08 1522.85 62.67% 37.33% +9.35 10-8
1997-08-02 Sacramento Monarchs W 72-51 1533.43 1403.19 77.91% 22.09% +7.32 11-8
1997-08-05 Houston Comets L 66-76 1540.75 1566.51 58.97% 41.03% -13.48 11-9
1997-08-07 Los Angeles Sparks L 84-87 1527.27 1498.06 66.35% 33.65% -8.31 11-10
1997-08-11 @ Utah Starzz W 74-59 1518.96 1393.29 55.29% 44.71% +12.52 12-10
1997-08-12 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 76-81 1531.48 1423.89 52.71% 47.29% -8.53 12-11
1997-08-14 @ Phoenix Mercury L 55-61 1522.95 1517.84 38.19% 61.81% -6.76 12-12
1997-08-17 Charlotte Sting W 81-49 1516.19 1528.55 60.82% 39.18% +16.02 13-12
1997-08-21 @ Houston Comets W 76-75 1532.21 1613.33 27.33% 72.67% +5.26 14-12
1997-08-23 New York Liberty W 72-71 1537.47 1510.62 66.05% 33.95% +2.45 15-12
1997-08-24 @ New York Liberty L 72-79 1539.92 1508.16 41.87% 58.13% -8.01 15-13
1997-06-21 @ Cleveland Rockers W 76-56 1500.00 1500.00 37.50% 62.50% +20.21 1-0
1997-06-24 Phoenix Mercury W 72-55 1520.21 1511.18 63.71% 36.29% +10.82 2-0
1997-06-26 New York Liberty L 60-62 1531.03 1529.28 62.74% 37.26% -6.42 2-1
1997-06-28 @ Utah Starzz W 76-58 1524.61 1485.98 42.84% 57.16% +17.54 3-1
1997-06-30 Los Angeles Sparks W 71-66 1542.15 1497.75 68.27% 31.73% +5.12 4-1
1997-07-02 @ New York Liberty L 67-72 1547.27 1542.67 38.12% 61.88% -6.16 4-2
1997-07-04 New York Liberty L 58-65 1541.11 1548.83 61.45% 38.55% -11.75 4-3
1997-07-07 Charlotte Sting W 74-56 1529.36 1492.82 67.29% 32.71% +10.03 5-3
1997-07-09 @ Phoenix Mercury L 64-69 1539.39 1537.32 37.78% 62.22% -6.11 5-4
1997-07-12 Sacramento Monarchs W 89-61 1533.28 1491.07 68.00% 32.00% +12.25 6-4
1997-07-14 Utah Starzz W 79-56 1545.53 1431.53 76.26% 23.74% +8.23 7-4
1997-07-16 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 52-77 1553.76 1476.46 48.35% 51.65% -17.48 7-5
1997-07-18 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 82-60 1536.28 1476.03 45.91% 54.09% +18.34 8-5
1997-07-22 @ Phoenix Mercury W 77-69 1554.62 1565.26 36.08% 63.92% +13.07 9-5
1997-07-25 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 86-76 1567.69 1444.88 54.89% 45.11% +10.32 10-5
1997-07-29 Cleveland Rockers L 64-73 1578.01 1508.61 71.31% 28.69% -15.47 10-6
1997-08-01 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 81-57 1562.54 1506.19 45.35% 54.65% +19.36 11-6
1997-08-02 @ Utah Starzz L 63-74 1581.90 1391.85 64.18% 35.82% -15.39 11-7
1997-08-05 @ Cleveland Rockers W 76-66 1566.51 1540.75 41.03% 58.97% +13.48 12-7
1997-08-07 Phoenix Mercury W 74-70 1579.99 1525.21 69.55% 30.45% +4.40 13-7
1997-08-09 Los Angeles Sparks W 72-71 1584.39 1506.37 72.31% 27.69% +2.00 14-7
1997-08-11 @ Charlotte Sting W 72-62 1586.39 1521.74 46.54% 53.46% +12.23 15-7
1997-08-12 Utah Starzz W 76-56 1598.62 1380.77 85.38% 14.62% +4.72 16-7
1997-08-16 @ Charlotte Sting L 71-80 1603.34 1517.80 49.54% 50.46% -10.74 16-8
1997-08-17 @ New York Liberty W 70-55 1592.60 1540.53 44.74% 55.26% +15.47 17-8
1997-08-19 Charlotte Sting W 77-69 1608.07 1512.52 74.29% 25.71% +5.26 18-8
1997-08-21 Cleveland Rockers L 75-76 1613.33 1532.21 72.67% 27.33% -5.26 18-9
1997-08-24 Sacramento Monarchs L 58-68 1608.07 1398.22 84.80% 15.20% -19.38 18-10
1997-06-21 New York Liberty L 57-67 1500.00 1500.00 62.50% 37.50% -14.29 0-1
1997-06-23 @ Utah Starzz L 89-102 1485.71 1485.71 37.50% 62.50% -9.78 0-2
1997-06-25 Charlotte Sting W 74-54 1475.93 1488.82 60.75% 39.25% +12.70 1-2
1997-06-27 Sacramento Monarchs W 102-92 1488.63 1506.34 60.08% 39.92% +9.12 2-2
1997-06-30 @ Houston Comets L 66-71 1497.75 1542.15 31.73% 68.27% -5.13 2-3
1997-07-03 @ Cleveland Rockers W 74-62 1492.62 1465.95 41.16% 58.84% +14.74 3-3
1997-07-05 @ Charlotte Sting L 66-78 1507.36 1482.58 40.90% 59.10% -10.24 3-4
1997-07-07 Cleveland Rockers L 70-81 1497.12 1447.09 68.97% 31.03% -16.54 3-5
1997-07-11 Utah Starzz W 75-68 1480.58 1433.64 68.59% 31.41% +6.01 4-5
1997-07-13 Phoenix Mercury L 56-57 1486.59 1539.53 55.13% 44.87% -3.99 4-6
1997-07-15 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 73-78 1482.60 1478.83 38.01% 61.99% -6.14 4-7
1997-07-16 Houston Comets W 77-52 1476.46 1553.76 51.65% 48.35% +17.48 5-7
1997-07-19 @ New York Liberty L 57-69 1493.94 1579.10 26.87% 73.13% -6.73 5-8
1997-07-21 @ Charlotte Sting L 64-75 1487.21 1495.52 36.39% 63.61% -8.73 5-9
1997-07-23 Cleveland Rockers L 85-89 1478.48 1469.27 63.73% 36.27% -9.22 5-10
1997-07-25 @ Phoenix Mercury W 86-83 1469.26 1552.19 27.13% 72.87% +9.13 6-10
1997-07-27 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 84-62 1478.39 1434.57 43.57% 56.43% +19.14 7-10
1997-07-30 Utah Starzz W 91-69 1497.53 1400.52 74.45% 25.55% +8.66 8-10
1997-08-01 Houston Comets L 57-81 1506.19 1562.54 54.65% 45.35% -19.35 8-11
1997-08-03 Charlotte Sting L 70-77 1486.84 1519.71 57.97% 42.03% -11.09 8-12
1997-08-05 @ New York Liberty W 67-50 1475.75 1576.52 25.14% 74.86% +22.31 9-12
1997-08-07 @ Cleveland Rockers W 87-84 1498.06 1527.27 33.65% 66.35% +8.31 10-12
1997-08-09 @ Houston Comets L 71-72 1506.37 1584.39 27.69% 72.31% -2.00 10-13
1997-08-16 @ Utah Starzz W 74-64 1504.37 1376.04 55.67% 44.33% +10.13 11-13
1997-08-18 Phoenix Mercury W 75-66 1514.50 1528.57 60.58% 39.42% +8.55 12-13
1997-08-20 New York Liberty W 78-76 1523.05 1514.33 63.67% 36.33% +3.72 13-13
1997-08-22 Sacramento Monarchs W 88-77 1526.77 1403.69 77.19% 22.81% +5.47 14-13
1997-08-24 @ Phoenix Mercury L 68-73 1532.24 1543.35 36.01% 63.99% -5.83 14-14
1997-06-21 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 67-57 1500.00 1500.00 37.50% 62.50% +14.29 1-0
1997-06-23 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 73-62 1514.29 1514.29 37.50% 62.50% +14.99 2-0
1997-06-26 @ Houston Comets W 62-60 1529.28 1531.03 37.26% 62.74% +6.41 3-0
1997-06-29 Phoenix Mercury W 65-57 1535.69 1510.22 65.87% 34.13% +6.98 4-0
1997-07-02 Houston Comets W 72-67 1542.67 1547.27 61.88% 38.12% +6.16 5-0
1997-07-04 @ Houston Comets W 65-58 1548.83 1541.11 38.55% 61.45% +11.76 6-0
1997-07-05 @ Utah Starzz W 66-53 1560.59 1459.09 51.84% 48.16% +12.55 7-0
1997-07-07 @ Phoenix Mercury L 50-69 1573.14 1523.32 44.42% 55.58% -14.00 7-1
1997-07-09 @ Charlotte Sting L 69-87 1559.14 1482.79 48.22% 51.78% -14.79 7-2
1997-07-10 Charlotte Sting W 62-48 1544.35 1497.58 68.57% 31.43% +8.51 8-2
1997-07-14 @ Cleveland Rockers W 68-57 1552.86 1462.15 50.28% 49.72% +11.92 9-2
1997-07-15 Cleveland Rockers W 76-59 1564.78 1450.23 76.32% 23.68% +7.06 10-2
1997-07-17 Utah Starzz W 80-54 1571.84 1416.41 80.31% 19.69% +7.26 11-2
1997-07-19 Los Angeles Sparks W 69-57 1579.10 1493.94 73.13% 26.87% +6.73 12-2
1997-07-22 Utah Starzz L 71-78 1585.83 1397.42 83.14% 16.86% -15.90 12-3
1997-07-23 @ Charlotte Sting W 65-63 1569.93 1504.24 46.69% 53.31% +5.45 13-3
1997-07-26 Charlotte Sting L 61-64 1575.38 1498.79 72.15% 27.85% -9.04 13-4
1997-07-30 Sacramento Monarchs W 73-68 1566.34 1415.43 79.89% 20.11% +3.25 14-4
1997-08-02 Phoenix Mercury W 80-70 1569.59 1513.50 69.71% 30.29% +6.93 15-4
1997-08-05 Los Angeles Sparks L 50-67 1576.52 1475.75 74.86% 25.14% -22.32 15-5
1997-08-10 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 69-76 1554.20 1412.89 57.51% 42.49% -11.00 15-6
1997-08-12 @ Phoenix Mercury L 67-77 1543.20 1508.17 42.33% 57.67% -9.68 15-7
1997-08-15 Sacramento Monarchs W 79-63 1533.52 1424.12 75.78% 24.22% +7.01 16-7
1997-08-17 Houston Comets L 55-70 1540.53 1592.60 55.26% 44.74% -15.48 16-8
1997-08-19 @ Utah Starzz L 75-81 1525.05 1361.94 60.54% 39.46% -10.72 16-9
1997-08-20 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 76-78 1514.33 1523.05 36.33% 63.67% -3.71 16-10
1997-08-23 @ Cleveland Rockers L 71-72 1510.62 1537.47 33.95% 66.05% -2.46 16-11
1997-08-24 Cleveland Rockers W 79-72 1508.16 1539.92 58.13% 41.87% +8.01 17-11
1997-06-22 Charlotte Sting W 76-59 1500.00 1500.00 62.50% 37.50% +11.18 1-0
1997-06-24 @ Houston Comets L 55-72 1511.18 1520.21 36.29% 63.71% -10.82 1-1
1997-06-28 @ Cleveland Rockers W 68-63 1500.36 1489.30 39.00% 61.00% +9.86 2-1
1997-06-29 @ New York Liberty L 57-65 1510.22 1535.69 34.13% 65.87% -6.98 2-2
1997-07-03 @ Utah Starzz W 77-55 1503.24 1479.16 40.80% 59.20% +20.08 3-2
1997-07-07 New York Liberty W 69-50 1523.32 1573.14 55.58% 44.42% +14.00 4-2
1997-07-09 Houston Comets W 69-64 1537.32 1539.39 62.22% 37.78% +6.11 5-2
1997-07-12 @ Utah Starzz L 51-52 1543.43 1427.63 53.89% 46.11% -3.90 5-3
1997-07-13 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 57-56 1539.53 1486.59 44.87% 55.13% +3.99 6-3
1997-07-16 Sacramento Monarchs W 84-67 1543.52 1484.97 70.01% 29.99% +8.94 7-3
1997-07-21 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 70-57 1552.46 1457.69 50.87% 49.13% +12.80 8-3
1997-07-22 Houston Comets L 69-77 1565.26 1554.62 63.92% 36.08% -13.07 8-4
1997-07-25 Los Angeles Sparks L 83-86 1552.19 1469.26 72.87% 27.13% -9.12 8-5
1997-07-28 Cleveland Rockers L 64-76 1543.07 1491.28 69.19% 30.81% -17.33 8-6
1997-07-30 @ Charlotte Sting L 67-68 1525.74 1507.83 39.95% 60.05% -2.89 8-7
1997-07-31 @ Cleveland Rockers L 67-79 1522.85 1524.08 37.33% 62.67% -9.35 8-8
1997-08-02 @ New York Liberty L 70-80 1513.50 1569.59 30.29% 69.71% -6.93 8-9
1997-08-04 Sacramento Monarchs W 83-60 1506.57 1395.87 75.92% 24.08% +8.35 9-9
1997-08-06 Utah Starzz W 78-46 1514.92 1414.13 74.86% 25.14% +10.29 10-9
1997-08-07 @ Houston Comets L 70-74 1525.21 1579.99 30.45% 69.55% -4.40 10-10
1997-08-09 @ Charlotte Sting L 59-79 1520.81 1509.10 39.09% 60.91% -12.64 10-11
1997-08-12 New York Liberty W 77-67 1508.17 1543.20 57.67% 42.33% +9.67 11-11
1997-08-14 Cleveland Rockers W 61-55 1517.84 1522.95 61.81% 38.19% +6.77 12-11
1997-08-17 Utah Starzz W 71-63 1524.61 1365.91 80.60% 19.40% +3.96 13-11
1997-08-18 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 66-75 1528.57 1514.50 39.42% 60.58% -8.55 13-12
1997-08-20 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 69-54 1520.02 1417.12 52.04% 47.96% +13.44 14-12
1997-08-22 Charlotte Sting W 78-63 1533.46 1517.20 64.67% 35.33% +9.89 15-12
1997-08-24 Los Angeles Sparks W 73-68 1543.35 1532.24 63.99% 36.01% +5.82 16-12
1997-06-21 @ Utah Starzz W 70-60 1500.00 1500.00 37.50% 62.50% +14.29 1-0
1997-06-23 New York Liberty L 62-73 1514.29 1514.29 62.50% 37.50% -14.99 1-1
1997-06-26 Charlotte Sting W 78-70 1499.30 1476.13 65.57% 34.43% +7.04 2-1
1997-06-27 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 92-102 1506.34 1488.63 39.92% 60.08% -9.12 2-2
1997-07-02 Utah Starzz L 68-73 1497.22 1468.45 66.29% 33.71% -10.72 2-3
1997-07-06 Cleveland Rockers W 70-67 1486.50 1451.21 67.13% 32.87% +4.12 3-3
1997-07-07 @ Utah Starzz W 79-69 1490.62 1446.53 43.61% 56.39% +12.89 4-3
1997-07-10 @ Cleveland Rockers L 61-77 1503.51 1463.63 43.01% 56.99% -12.44 4-4
1997-07-12 @ Houston Comets L 61-89 1491.07 1533.28 32.00% 68.00% -12.24 4-5
1997-07-15 Los Angeles Sparks W 78-73 1478.83 1482.60 61.99% 38.01% +6.14 5-5
1997-07-16 @ Phoenix Mercury L 67-84 1484.97 1543.52 29.99% 70.01% -8.94 5-6
1997-07-18 Houston Comets L 60-82 1476.03 1536.28 54.09% 45.91% -18.34 5-7
1997-07-21 Phoenix Mercury L 57-70 1457.69 1552.46 49.13% 50.87% -12.81 5-8
1997-07-25 Houston Comets L 76-86 1444.88 1567.69 45.11% 54.89% -10.31 5-9
1997-07-27 Los Angeles Sparks L 62-84 1434.57 1478.39 56.43% 43.57% -19.14 5-10
1997-07-30 @ New York Liberty L 68-73 1415.43 1566.34 20.11% 79.89% -3.25 5-11
1997-08-01 @ Charlotte Sting L 61-85 1412.18 1510.72 25.39% 74.61% -8.99 5-12
1997-08-02 @ Cleveland Rockers L 51-72 1403.19 1533.43 22.09% 77.91% -7.32 5-13
1997-08-04 @ Phoenix Mercury L 60-83 1395.87 1506.57 24.08% 75.92% -8.35 5-14
1997-08-06 Charlotte Sting W 77-64 1387.52 1523.91 43.19% 56.81% +14.81 6-14
1997-08-08 Utah Starzz W 93-78 1402.33 1403.85 62.30% 37.70% +10.56 7-14
1997-08-10 New York Liberty W 76-69 1412.89 1554.20 42.49% 57.51% +11.00 8-14
1997-08-12 Cleveland Rockers W 81-76 1423.89 1531.48 47.29% 52.71% +8.52 9-14
1997-08-14 @ Charlotte Sting L 51-68 1432.41 1509.52 27.79% 72.21% -8.29 9-15
1997-08-15 @ New York Liberty L 63-79 1424.12 1533.52 24.22% 75.78% -7.00 9-16
1997-08-20 Phoenix Mercury L 54-69 1417.12 1520.02 47.96% 52.04% -13.43 9-17
1997-08-22 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 77-88 1403.69 1526.77 22.81% 77.19% -5.47 9-18
1997-08-24 @ Houston Comets W 68-58 1398.22 1608.07 15.20% 84.80% +19.39 10-18
1997-06-21 Sacramento Monarchs L 60-70 1500.00 1500.00 62.50% 37.50% -14.29 0-1
1997-06-23 Los Angeles Sparks W 102-89 1485.71 1485.71 62.50% 37.50% +9.78 1-1
1997-06-26 @ Cleveland Rockers L 63-74 1495.49 1479.79 39.64% 60.36% -9.51 1-2
1997-06-28 Houston Comets L 58-76 1485.98 1524.61 57.16% 42.84% -17.53 1-3
1997-07-02 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 73-68 1468.45 1497.22 33.71% 66.29% +10.71 2-3
1997-07-03 Phoenix Mercury L 55-77 1479.16 1503.24 59.20% 40.80% -20.07 2-4
1997-07-05 New York Liberty L 53-66 1459.09 1560.59 48.16% 51.84% -12.56 2-5
1997-07-07 Sacramento Monarchs L 69-79 1446.53 1490.62 56.39% 43.61% -12.89 2-6
1997-07-11 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 68-75 1433.64 1480.58 31.41% 68.59% -6.01 2-7
1997-07-12 Phoenix Mercury W 52-51 1427.63 1543.43 46.11% 53.89% +3.90 3-7
1997-07-14 @ Houston Comets L 56-79 1431.53 1545.53 23.74% 76.26% -8.23 3-8
1997-07-16 @ Charlotte Sting L 63-75 1423.30 1503.00 27.50% 72.50% -6.89 3-9
1997-07-17 @ New York Liberty L 54-80 1416.41 1571.84 19.69% 80.31% -7.26 3-10
1997-07-19 @ Cleveland Rockers L 68-95 1409.15 1457.53 31.23% 68.77% -11.73 3-11
1997-07-22 @ New York Liberty W 78-71 1397.42 1585.83 16.86% 83.14% +15.90 4-11
1997-07-26 Cleveland Rockers L 66-77 1413.32 1478.48 53.39% 46.61% -12.80 4-12
1997-07-30 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 69-91 1400.52 1497.53 25.55% 74.45% -8.67 4-13
1997-08-02 Houston Comets W 74-63 1391.85 1581.90 35.82% 64.18% +15.39 5-13
1997-08-04 Charlotte Sting W 73-70 1407.24 1530.80 45.01% 54.99% +6.89 6-13
1997-08-06 @ Phoenix Mercury L 46-78 1414.13 1514.92 25.14% 74.86% -10.28 6-14
1997-08-08 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 78-93 1403.85 1402.33 37.70% 62.30% -10.56 6-15
1997-08-11 Cleveland Rockers L 59-74 1393.29 1518.96 44.71% 55.29% -12.52 6-16
1997-08-12 @ Houston Comets L 56-76 1380.77 1598.62 14.62% 85.38% -4.73 6-17
1997-08-16 Los Angeles Sparks L 64-74 1376.04 1504.37 44.33% 55.67% -10.13 6-18
1997-08-17 @ Phoenix Mercury L 63-71 1365.91 1524.61 19.40% 80.60% -3.97 6-19
1997-08-19 New York Liberty W 81-75 1361.94 1525.05 39.46% 60.54% +10.72 7-19
1997-08-21 Charlotte Sting L 56-66 1372.66 1507.26 43.44% 56.56% -9.93 7-20
1997-08-24 @ Charlotte Sting L 52-70 1362.73 1507.30 20.70% 79.30% -6.35 7-21

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1997-08-28 @ Houston Comets L 54-70 1513.65 1588.69 28.03% 71.97% -8.11 0-1
1997-08-28 Charlotte Sting W 70-54 1588.69 1513.65 71.97% 28.03% +8.10 1-0
1997-08-30 New York Liberty W 65-51 1596.79 1536.67 70.20% 29.80% +8.07 2-0
1997-08-28 @ Phoenix Mercury W 59-41 1516.17 1549.17 33.16% 66.84% +20.50 1-0
1997-08-30 @ Houston Comets L 51-65 1536.67 1596.79 29.80% 70.20% -8.06 1-1
1997-08-28 New York Liberty L 41-59 1549.17 1516.17 66.84% 33.16% -20.50 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1997-08-24 15.20% Sacramento Monarchs 1398.22 68 @ Houston Comets 1608.07 58
2 1997-07-22 16.86% Utah Starzz 1397.42 78 @ New York Liberty 1585.83 71
3 1997-08-05 25.14% Los Angeles Sparks 1475.75 67 @ New York Liberty 1576.52 50
4 1997-07-25 27.13% Los Angeles Sparks 1469.26 86 @ Phoenix Mercury 1552.19 83
5 1997-08-21 27.33% Cleveland Rockers 1532.21 76 @ Houston Comets 1613.33 75
6 1997-07-26 27.85% Charlotte Sting 1498.79 64 @ New York Liberty 1575.38 61
7 1997-07-29 28.69% Cleveland Rockers 1508.61 73 @ Houston Comets 1578.01 64
8 1997-07-28 30.81% Cleveland Rockers 1491.28 76 @ Phoenix Mercury 1543.07 64
9 1997-07-07 31.03% Cleveland Rockers 1447.09 81 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1497.12 70
10 1997-08-28 * 33.16% New York Liberty 1516.17 59 @ Phoenix Mercury 1549.17 41
11 1997-08-07 33.65% Los Angeles Sparks 1498.06 87 @ Cleveland Rockers 1527.27 84
12 1997-07-02 33.71% Utah Starzz 1468.45 73 @ Sacramento Monarchs 1497.22 68
13 1997-08-02 35.82% @ Utah Starzz 1391.85 74 Houston Comets 1581.90 63
14 1997-07-22 36.08% Houston Comets 1554.62 77 @ Phoenix Mercury 1565.26 69
15 1997-07-23 36.27% Cleveland Rockers 1469.27 89 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1478.48 85
16 1997-06-26 37.26% New York Liberty 1529.28 62 @ Houston Comets 1531.03 60
17 1997-06-21 37.50% Houston Comets 1500.00 76 @ Cleveland Rockers 1500.00 56
18 1997-06-21 37.50% New York Liberty 1500.00 67 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1500.00 57
19 1997-06-21 37.50% Sacramento Monarchs 1500.00 70 @ Utah Starzz 1500.00 60
20 1997-06-23 37.50% New York Liberty 1514.29 73 @ Sacramento Monarchs 1514.29 62
21 1997-07-04 38.55% New York Liberty 1548.83 65 @ Houston Comets 1541.11 58
22 1997-06-28 39.00% Phoenix Mercury 1500.36 68 @ Cleveland Rockers 1489.30 63
23 1997-08-19 39.46% @ Utah Starzz 1361.94 81 New York Liberty 1525.05 75
24 1997-07-03 40.80% Phoenix Mercury 1503.24 77 @ Utah Starzz 1479.16 55
25 1997-08-05 41.03% Houston Comets 1566.51 76 @ Cleveland Rockers 1540.75 66

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-08-05 22.32 Los Angeles Sparks 67 1475.75 25.14% @ New York Liberty 50 1576.52 74.86%
2 1997-08-28 * 20.50 New York Liberty 59 1516.17 33.16% @ Phoenix Mercury 41 1549.17 66.84%
3 1997-06-21 20.21 Houston Comets 76 1500.00 37.50% @ Cleveland Rockers 56 1500.00 62.50%
4 1997-07-03 20.08 Phoenix Mercury 77 1503.24 40.80% @ Utah Starzz 55 1479.16 59.20%
5 1997-08-24 19.39 Sacramento Monarchs 68 1398.22 15.20% @ Houston Comets 58 1608.07 84.80%
6 1997-08-01 19.36 Houston Comets 81 1562.54 45.35% @ Los Angeles Sparks 57 1506.19 54.65%
7 1997-07-27 19.14 Los Angeles Sparks 84 1478.39 43.57% @ Sacramento Monarchs 62 1434.57 56.43%
8 1997-07-18 18.34 Houston Comets 82 1536.28 45.91% @ Sacramento Monarchs 60 1476.03 54.09%
9 1997-06-28 17.54 Houston Comets 76 1524.61 42.84% @ Utah Starzz 58 1485.98 57.16%
10 1997-07-16 17.48 @ Los Angeles Sparks 77 1476.46 51.65% Houston Comets 52 1553.76 48.35%
11 1997-07-28 17.33 Cleveland Rockers 76 1491.28 30.81% @ Phoenix Mercury 64 1543.07 69.19%
12 1997-07-07 16.54 Cleveland Rockers 81 1447.09 31.03% @ Los Angeles Sparks 70 1497.12 68.97%
13 1997-08-17 16.03 @ Cleveland Rockers 81 1516.19 60.82% Charlotte Sting 49 1528.55 39.18%
14 1997-07-22 15.90 Utah Starzz 78 1397.42 16.86% @ New York Liberty 71 1585.83 83.14%
15 1997-08-17 15.48 Houston Comets 70 1592.60 44.74% @ New York Liberty 55 1540.53 55.26%
16 1997-07-29 15.47 Cleveland Rockers 73 1508.61 28.69% @ Houston Comets 64 1578.01 71.31%
17 1997-08-02 15.39 @ Utah Starzz 74 1391.85 35.82% Houston Comets 63 1581.90 64.18%
18 1997-06-23 14.99 New York Liberty 73 1514.29 37.50% @ Sacramento Monarchs 62 1514.29 62.50%
19 1997-08-06 14.81 @ Sacramento Monarchs 77 1387.52 43.19% Charlotte Sting 64 1523.91 56.81%
20 1997-07-09 14.79 @ Charlotte Sting 87 1482.79 51.78% New York Liberty 69 1559.14 48.22%
21 1997-07-03 14.74 Los Angeles Sparks 74 1492.62 41.16% @ Cleveland Rockers 62 1465.95 58.84%
22 1997-07-17 14.37 @ Cleveland Rockers 65 1443.17 53.16% Charlotte Sting 47 1509.89 46.84%
23 1997-06-21 14.29 New York Liberty 67 1500.00 37.50% @ Los Angeles Sparks 57 1500.00 62.50%
24 1997-06-21 14.29 Sacramento Monarchs 70 1500.00 37.50% @ Utah Starzz 60 1500.00 62.50%
25 1997-07-07 14.00 @ Phoenix Mercury 69 1523.32 55.58% New York Liberty 50 1573.14 44.42%