Home / Leagues / Spain / La Liga / 1940-41

1940-41 La Liga Season

132 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Atletico Aviacion

33 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1939-40

Relegated

Murcia

13 pts

Zaragoza · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Atletico Bilbao

7.38 points above expected

31 points · 23.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Real Murcia

6.32 points below expected

13 points · 19.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Atletico Aviacion Champion 22 13 7 2 33 70 36 +34 26.89 +6.11
2 Atletico Bilbao 22 13 5 4 31 49 24 +25 23.62 +7.38
3 Barcelona 22 13 1 8 27 55 45 +10 21.24 +5.76
4 Valencia 22 11 5 6 27 60 52 +8 22.78 +4.22
5 Sevilla 22 12 2 8 26 70 43 +27 25.03 +0.97
6 Madrid CF 22 11 2 9 24 51 38 +13 24.56 -0.56
7 Espanol 22 10 2 10 22 50 54 -4 21.83 +0.17
8 Real Oviedo 22 7 2 13 16 36 63 -27 19.87 -3.87
9 Hercules 22 7 2 13 16 28 67 -39 19.60 -3.60
10 Celta Vigo 22 7 1 14 15 45 51 -6 20.54 -5.54
11 Real Zaragoza 22 5 4 13 14 26 41 -15 18.73 -4.73
12 Real Murcia 22 5 3 14 13 29 55 -26 19.32 -6.32

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Castellon 3
Real Zaragoza 2
Deportivo La Coruna 2
Real Murcia 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Atletico Aviacion 1939 33 26.89 +6.11 97.5% 14 21 25 27 29 32 38
Atletico Bilbao 1828 31 23.62 +7.38 99.2% 10 18 21 24 26 29 36
Sevilla 1794 26 25.03 +0.97 67.1% 13 20 23 25 27 31 37
Barcelona 1783 27 21.24 +5.76 96.6% 7 16 19 21 24 27 35
Valencia 1779 27 22.78 +4.22 91.6% 10 17 20 23 25 28 35
Madrid CF 1771 24 24.56 -0.56 49.3% 12 19 22 25 27 30 36
Espanol 1685 22 21.83 +0.17 58.3% 8 16 20 22 24 28 33
Celta Vigo 1647 15 20.54 -5.54 6.5% 7 15 18 21 23 26 33
Real Oviedo 1577 16 19.87 -3.87 16.0% 7 14 18 20 22 25 32
Real Murcia 1546 13 19.32 -6.32 4.8% 5 14 17 19 22 25 32
Real Zaragoza 1537 14 18.73 -4.73 10.3% 7 13 16 19 21 24 31
Hercules 1457 16 19.60 -3.60 18.1% 7 14 17 20 22 25 33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA AB BAR CV ESP HER MC RM RO RZ SEV VAL
Atletico Aviacion
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.64
2-0-0
3.40
2-0-0
3.74
1-1-0
3.85
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.35
1-0-1
3.89
1-1-0
4.47
1-1-0
3.11
0-1-1
3.44
Atletico Bilbao
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.32
0-2-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
3.07
Barcelona
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.80
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
2.47
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.77
Celta Vigo
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
2.69
1-0-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.89
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
2.41
Espanol
0-0-2
1.98
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
3.44
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.70
Hercules
0-1-1
1.88
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.82
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.37
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
1.79
0-0-2
2.67
Madrid CF
0-0-2
2.87
0-0-2
2.97
0-0-2
3.24
2-0-0
3.50
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.35
1-0-1
3.62
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.82
1-1-0
2.92
Real Murcia
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.25
0-0-2
2.64
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.86
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.19
Real Oviedo
1-0-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.39
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.36
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
2.20
Real Zaragoza
0-1-1
1.25
0-2-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-2
2.04
0-0-2
2.51
Sevilla
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
3.92
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.70
2-0-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.67
1-0-1
3.26
Valencia
1-1-0
2.27
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.05
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.46

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.72 +3.9
Allowed 0.44 -3.9
Differential 0.80 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%4.17%2.65%4.55%1.52%3.79%18.18%
14.17%5.30%5.68%6.44%3.41%3.03%28.03%
22.65%5.68%3.03%2.27%0.38%1.14%15.15%
34.55%6.44%2.27%3.03%1.52%1.52%19.32%
41.52%3.41%0.38%1.52%0.76%1.14%8.71%
5+3.79%3.03%1.14%1.52%1.14%10.61%
Total18.18%28.03%15.15%19.32%8.71%10.61%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 1.88 1.88 2.93
CV 0.87 0.87
Max 11 11 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
118.18%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
Total18.18%40.91%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 1.64 +1.55
SD 1.71 1.33 2.11
CV 0.54 0.81
Max 7 4 +6
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%13.64%
24.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
313.64%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%59.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.09 +1.14
SD 1.88 1.06 2.29
CV 0.84 0.98
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
14.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%18.18%9.09%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.05 +0.45
SD 1.50 2.46 3.31
CV 0.60 1.20
Max 7 11 +7
Min 1 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
Total13.64%18.18%27.27%13.64%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 2.32 -0.27
SD 2.10 1.55 2.91
CV 1.03 0.67
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%22.73%13.64%31.82%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 2.45 -0.18
SD 1.24 1.87 2.63
CV 0.55 0.76
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%40.91%
113.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%4.55%13.64%18.18%4.55%31.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 3.05 -1.77
SD 1.35 2.63 3.16
CV 1.06 0.86
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%9.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%36.36%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total18.18%40.91%4.55%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.73 +0.59
SD 1.81 1.42 2.48
CV 0.78 0.82
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
14.55%4.55%22.73%9.09%9.09%50.00%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total13.64%18.18%22.73%22.73%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.50 -1.18
SD 0.99 1.82 2.32
CV 0.75 0.73
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%40.91%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
29.09%9.09%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total4.55%18.18%13.64%36.36%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.86 -1.23
SD 1.87 1.61 2.83
CV 1.14 0.56
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%13.64%4.55%45.45%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%36.36%13.64%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.86 -0.68
SD 1.71 1.64 2.55
CV 1.45 0.88
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%13.64%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 1.95 +1.23
SD 3.02 1.46 3.39
CV 0.95 0.75
Max 11 4 +10
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
Total18.18%31.82%18.18%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 2.36 +0.36
SD 1.55 2.50 3.26
CV 0.57 1.06
Max 6 10 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atletico Bilbao 31 23.62 +7.38
2 Atletico Aviacion 33 26.89 +6.11
3 Barcelona 27 21.24 +5.76
4 Valencia 27 22.78 +4.22
5 Sevilla 26 25.03 +0.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Real Murcia 13 19.32 -6.32
2 Celta Vigo 15 20.54 -5.54
3 Real Zaragoza 14 18.73 -4.73
4 Real Oviedo 16 19.87 -3.87
5 Hercules 16 19.60 -3.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Barcelona 5 Feb 2 – Mar 2 1 in 86
2 Espanol 3 Nov 3 – Nov 17 1 in 66
3 Atletico Bilbao 6 Jan 19 – Feb 23 1 in 35
4 Hercules 2 Nov 24 – Dec 1 1 in 19
5 Sevilla 3 Sep 29 – Oct 13 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celta Vigo 6 Jan 5 – Feb 16 1 in 42
2 Real Murcia 6 Jan 26 – Mar 2 1 in 29
3 Real Zaragoza 4 Dec 29 – Jan 26 1 in 23
4 Hercules 4 Oct 20 – Nov 10 1 in 21
5 Madrid CF 3 Feb 9 – Feb 23 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valencia 10 Dec 22 – Mar 2 1 in 154
2 Atletico Bilbao 11 Dec 8 – Feb 23 1 in 132
3 Atletico Aviacion 11 Dec 15 – Mar 2 1 in 60
4 Espanol 4 Oct 27 – Nov 17 1 in 16
5 Barcelona 5 Feb 2 – Mar 2 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Zaragoza 9 Dec 8 – Feb 9 1 in 30
2 Atletico Bilbao 5 Sep 29 – Oct 27 1 in 29
3 Hercules 6 Dec 8 – Jan 19 1 in 11
4 Celta Vigo 6 Jan 5 – Feb 16 1 in 9
5 Real Oviedo 5 Jan 21 – Feb 16 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Atletico Aviacion41.88%21.79%12.40%8.36%5.48%3.54%2.65%1.84%1.03%0.67%0.26%0.10%
Atletico Bilbao9.43%13.68%14.87%13.61%11.54%9.85%7.99%6.17%5.24%3.85%2.38%1.39%
Barcelona2.78%4.80%6.88%9.04%10.22%11.07%10.74%11.18%10.44%9.06%7.69%6.10%
Valencia5.58%9.29%11.28%12.17%11.58%11.17%10.36%8.42%7.29%5.83%4.13%2.90%
Sevilla18.71%19.95%16.48%12.52%9.38%7.46%5.21%3.98%2.70%1.91%1.12%0.58%
Madrid CF14.19%15.25%16.18%13.84%11.15%8.73%6.93%4.93%3.90%2.69%1.50%0.71%
Espanol3.45%5.79%7.30%9.38%10.84%11.28%11.46%11.31%9.08%8.13%7.11%4.87%
Real Oviedo1.02%2.00%3.02%4.22%6.20%7.40%9.45%11.05%12.45%13.61%14.07%15.51%
Hercules0.72%1.89%2.67%4.09%5.08%7.14%8.61%9.59%11.95%13.27%16.38%18.61%
Celta Vigo1.22%2.86%4.98%6.15%8.90%9.88%10.92%11.62%11.47%12.53%10.77%8.70%
Real Zaragoza0.39%1.00%1.68%2.91%4.48%5.74%7.59%9.69%12.29%14.43%18.63%21.17%
Real Murcia0.63%1.70%2.26%3.71%5.15%6.74%8.09%10.22%12.16%14.02%15.96%19.36%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+46.97%
Strong Edge
66.67%13.64%19.70%
Elo Value
Home Edge
125 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0177.08400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.39 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.1
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Atletico Aviacion, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.72 * Some Luck: 2.72 to 4.08 * Lucky: 4.08 to 5.44 * Wild Swing: 5.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.93 * Close: 1.93 to 2.9 * Off: 2.9 to 3.87 * Way Off: 3.87 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.70 points
Lucky
03.409
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Pinpoint
02.425
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.18%
Atletico Bilbao
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.78%
Real Murcia
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.49
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
78%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
94%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Frequent
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.64
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.92
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.15 * Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.19 * Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.
Probability calibration
0.53
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.46
Very Underconfident
0.401991.001.59801
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.0970.25

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Atletico Aviacion 99.64% 0.36%
Atletico Bilbao 96.23% 3.77%
Barcelona 86.21% 13.79%
Celta Vigo 80.53% 19.47%
Espanol 88.02% 11.98%
Hercules 65.01% 34.99%
Madrid CF 97.79% 2.21%
Real Murcia 64.68% 35.32%
Real Oviedo 70.42% 29.58%
Real Zaragoza 60.20% 39.80%
Sevilla 98.30% 1.70%
Valencia 92.97% 7.03%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1940-09-29 Celta Vigo W 5-4 1730 1665 76.0% 14.2% 9.8% +2.8 2
1940-09-29 @ Atletico Aviacion L 4-5 1665 1730 9.8% 14.2% 76.0% -2.8 0
1940-09-29 Real Oviedo W 5-0 1655 1744 64.6% 14.4% 20.9% +29.4 2
1940-09-29 @ Espanol L 0-5 1744 1655 20.9% 14.4% 64.6% -29.4 0
1940-09-29 Real Murcia W 4-0 1681 1675 72.5% 14.3% 13.2% +15.6 2
1940-09-29 @ Hercules L 0-4 1675 1681 13.2% 14.3% 72.5% -15.5 0
1940-09-29 Madrid CF D 1-1 1638 1764 60.8% 14.4% 24.8% -2.5 1
1940-09-29 @ Real Zaragoza D 1-1 1764 1638 24.8% 14.4% 60.8% +2.5 1
1940-09-29 Barcelona W 11-1 1702 1652 75.3% 14.2% 10.5% +24.5 2
1940-09-29 @ Sevilla L 1-11 1652 1702 10.5% 14.2% 75.3% -24.5 0
1940-09-29 Atletico Bilbao D 2-2 1685 1755 66.5% 14.4% 19.1% -2.5 1
1940-09-29 @ Valencia D 2-2 1755 1685 19.1% 14.4% 66.5% +2.5 1
1940-10-06 Real Zaragoza D 0-0 1757 1635 78.8% 14.0% 7.2% -5.9 2
1940-10-06 @ Atletico Bilbao D 0-0 1635 1757 7.2% 14.0% 78.8% +5.9 2
1940-10-06 Valencia W 4-3 1627 1683 67.7% 14.4% 17.9% +5.1 2
1940-10-06 @ Barcelona L 3-4 1683 1627 17.9% 14.4% 67.7% -5.0 1
1940-10-06 Espanol W 7-1 1662 1685 70.4% 14.3% 15.2% +21.5 2
1940-10-06 @ Celta Vigo L 1-7 1685 1662 15.2% 14.3% 70.4% -21.5 2
1940-10-06 Hercules W 5-3 1766 1697 76.3% 14.2% 9.5% +4.4 3
1940-10-06 @ Madrid CF L 3-5 1697 1766 9.5% 14.2% 76.3% -4.4 2
1940-10-06 Atletico Aviacion D 1-1 1659 1733 66.1% 14.4% 19.5% -3.3 1
1940-10-06 @ Real Murcia D 1-1 1733 1659 19.5% 14.4% 66.1% +3.3 3
1940-10-06 Sevilla L 0-4 1715 1727 71.2% 14.3% 14.5% -73.0 0
1940-10-06 @ Real Oviedo W 4-0 1727 1715 14.5% 14.3% 71.2% +73.0 4
1940-10-12 Barcelona W 2-1 1641 1632 72.7% 14.3% 13.0% +4.0 4
1940-10-12 @ Real Zaragoza L 1-2 1632 1641 13.0% 14.3% 72.7% -4.0 2
1940-10-13 Madrid CF W 3-1 1736 1771 69.4% 14.4% 16.2% +8.6 5
1940-10-13 @ Atletico Aviacion L 1-3 1771 1736 16.2% 14.4% 69.4% -8.6 3
1940-10-13 Real Murcia W 2-1 1663 1656 72.6% 14.3% 13.2% +4.1 4
1940-10-13 @ Espanol L 1-2 1656 1663 13.2% 14.3% 72.6% -4.1 1
1940-10-13 Atletico Bilbao W 1-0 1692 1752 67.4% 14.4% 18.2% +5.9 4
1940-10-13 @ Hercules L 0-1 1752 1692 18.2% 14.4% 67.4% -5.9 2
1940-10-13 Celta Vigo W 4-3 1642 1684 68.8% 14.4% 16.8% +4.8 2
1940-10-13 @ Real Oviedo L 3-4 1684 1642 16.8% 14.4% 68.8% -4.8 2
1940-10-13 Valencia W 10-3 1800 1678 78.7% 14.0% 7.2% +8.9 6
1940-10-13 @ Sevilla L 3-10 1678 1800 7.2% 14.0% 78.7% -8.9 1
1940-10-20 Atletico Aviacion L 0-5 1746 1745 72.2% 14.3% 13.5% -91.2 2
1940-10-20 @ Atletico Bilbao W 5-0 1745 1746 13.5% 14.3% 72.2% +91.2 7
1940-10-20 Hercules W 3-2 1628 1698 66.4% 14.4% 19.2% +5.5 4
1940-10-20 @ Barcelona L 2-3 1698 1628 19.2% 14.4% 66.4% -5.5 4
1940-10-20 Sevilla D 2-2 1679 1809 60.4% 14.4% 25.1% -1.8 3
1940-10-20 @ Celta Vigo D 2-2 1809 1679 25.1% 14.4% 60.4% +1.8 7
1940-10-20 Espanol W 4-1 1762 1667 77.5% 14.1% 8.4% +6.5 5
1940-10-20 @ Madrid CF L 1-4 1667 1762 8.4% 14.1% 77.5% -6.5 4
1940-10-20 Real Oviedo L 1-2 1652 1646 72.5% 14.3% 13.2% -19.6 1
1940-10-20 @ Real Murcia W 2-1 1646 1652 13.2% 14.3% 72.5% +19.6 4
1940-10-20 Real Zaragoza W 1-0 1669 1645 73.7% 14.3% 12.1% +4.0 3
1940-10-20 @ Valencia L 0-1 1645 1669 12.1% 14.3% 73.7% -4.0 4
1940-10-27 Barcelona D 4-4 1836 1634 81.5% 13.8% 4.7% -3.1 8
1940-10-27 @ Atletico Aviacion D 4-4 1634 1836 4.7% 13.8% 81.5% +3.1 5
1940-10-27 Real Murcia W 5-1 1677 1632 74.9% 14.2% 10.8% +10.8 5
1940-10-27 @ Celta Vigo L 1-5 1632 1677 10.8% 14.2% 74.9% -10.8 1
1940-10-27 Atletico Bilbao D 1-1 1661 1654 72.5% 14.3% 13.2% -4.2 5
1940-10-27 @ Espanol D 1-1 1654 1661 13.2% 14.3% 72.5% +4.2 3
1940-10-27 Valencia L 0-2 1693 1673 73.4% 14.3% 12.3% -39.7 4
1940-10-27 @ Hercules W 2-0 1673 1693 12.3% 14.3% 73.4% +39.7 5
1940-10-27 Madrid CF L 0-2 1666 1769 63.3% 14.4% 22.3% -34.1 4
1940-10-27 @ Real Oviedo W 2-0 1769 1666 22.3% 14.4% 63.3% +34.1 7
1940-10-27 Real Zaragoza W 4-1 1811 1641 80.5% 13.9% 5.6% +4.4 9
1940-10-27 @ Sevilla L 1-4 1641 1811 5.6% 13.9% 80.5% -4.4 4
1940-11-03 Real Oviedo W 2-1 1659 1632 73.9% 14.3% 11.9% +3.7 5
1940-11-03 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-2 1632 1659 11.9% 14.3% 73.9% -3.7 4
1940-11-03 Espanol L 2-3 1637 1657 70.6% 14.3% 15.0% -18.1 5
1940-11-03 @ Barcelona W 3-2 1657 1637 15.0% 14.3% 70.6% +18.1 7
1940-11-03 Celta Vigo W 3-1 1803 1688 78.4% 14.0% 7.5% +4.1 9
1940-11-03 @ Madrid CF L 1-3 1688 1803 7.5% 14.0% 78.4% -4.1 5
1940-11-03 Sevilla W 2-1 1622 1815 52.7% 14.5% 32.8% +9.4 3
1940-11-03 @ Real Murcia L 1-2 1815 1622 32.8% 14.5% 52.7% -9.4 9
1940-11-03 Hercules W 7-0 1637 1653 70.9% 14.3% 14.8% +29.3 6
1940-11-03 @ Real Zaragoza L 0-7 1653 1637 14.8% 14.3% 70.9% -29.3 4
1940-11-03 Atletico Aviacion W 3-1 1713 1833 61.5% 14.4% 24.1% +12.4 7
1940-11-03 @ Valencia L 1-3 1833 1713 24.1% 14.4% 61.5% -12.4 8
1940-11-10 Real Zaragoza W 3-1 1820 1666 80.0% 13.9% 6.1% +3.4 10
1940-11-10 @ Atletico Aviacion L 1-3 1666 1820 6.1% 13.9% 80.0% -3.4 6
1940-11-10 Atletico Bilbao L 1-2 1684 1662 73.5% 14.3% 12.2% -19.9 5
1940-11-10 @ Celta Vigo W 2-1 1662 1684 12.2% 14.3% 73.5% +19.9 7
1940-11-10 Valencia W 2-1 1675 1725 68.2% 14.4% 17.5% +5.3 9
1940-11-10 @ Espanol L 1-2 1725 1675 17.5% 14.4% 68.2% -5.3 7
1940-11-10 Madrid CF W 3-1 1631 1807 54.9% 14.5% 30.6% +15.3 5
1940-11-10 @ Real Murcia L 1-3 1807 1631 30.6% 14.5% 54.9% -15.3 9
1940-11-10 Barcelona W 3-1 1628 1619 72.7% 14.3% 13.0% +7.0 6
1940-11-10 @ Real Oviedo L 1-3 1619 1628 13.0% 14.3% 72.7% -7.0 5
1940-11-10 Hercules W 8-3 1806 1624 80.9% 13.8% 5.2% +4.9 11
1940-11-10 @ Sevilla L 3-8 1624 1806 5.2% 13.8% 80.9% -4.9 4
1940-11-17 Real Murcia W 6-1 1682 1646 74.4% 14.2% 11.4% +13.8 9
1940-11-17 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-6 1646 1682 11.4% 14.2% 74.4% -13.8 5
1940-11-17 Celta Vigo W 2-0 1612 1664 68.0% 14.4% 17.6% +10.8 7
1940-11-17 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1664 1612 17.6% 14.4% 68.0% -10.8 5
1940-11-17 Atletico Aviacion D 3-3 1619 1824 51.2% 14.5% 34.3% -0.7 5
1940-11-17 @ Hercules D 3-3 1824 1619 34.3% 14.5% 51.2% +0.7 11
1940-11-17 Sevilla W 4-1 1792 1810 70.7% 14.3% 15.0% +11.3 11
1940-11-17 @ Madrid CF L 1-4 1810 1792 15.0% 14.3% 70.7% -11.3 11
1940-11-17 Espanol L 0-3 1663 1680 70.8% 14.3% 14.8% -55.6 6
1940-11-17 @ Real Zaragoza W 3-0 1680 1663 14.8% 14.3% 70.8% +55.6 11
1940-11-17 Real Oviedo W 5-1 1720 1635 77.0% 14.1% 8.8% +8.8 9
1940-11-17 @ Valencia L 1-5 1635 1720 8.8% 14.1% 77.0% -8.8 6
1940-11-24 Valencia W 6-2 1653 1729 66.0% 14.4% 19.6% +15.9 7
1940-11-24 @ Celta Vigo L 2-6 1729 1653 19.6% 14.4% 66.0% -15.9 9
1940-11-24 Hercules L 1-2 1736 1618 78.5% 14.0% 7.4% -21.3 11
1940-11-24 @ Espanol W 2-1 1618 1736 7.4% 14.0% 78.5% +21.4 7
1940-11-24 Atletico Bilbao L 0-1 1803 1696 78.1% 14.1% 7.8% -22.5 11
1940-11-24 @ Madrid CF W 1-0 1696 1803 7.8% 14.1% 78.1% +22.5 11
1940-11-24 Barcelona L 1-3 1633 1622 72.8% 14.3% 12.9% -34.1 5
1940-11-24 @ Real Murcia W 3-1 1622 1633 12.9% 14.3% 72.8% +34.1 9
1940-11-24 Real Zaragoza W 5-4 1626 1607 73.4% 14.3% 12.4% +3.5 8
1940-11-24 @ Real Oviedo L 4-5 1607 1626 12.4% 14.3% 73.4% -3.5 6
1940-11-24 Atletico Aviacion D 1-1 1799 1824 70.2% 14.3% 15.4% -3.9 12
1940-11-24 @ Sevilla D 1-1 1824 1799 15.4% 14.3% 70.2% +3.9 12
1940-12-01 Espanol W 5-3 1828 1714 78.4% 14.0% 7.5% +3.5 14
1940-12-01 @ Atletico Aviacion L 3-5 1714 1828 7.5% 14.0% 78.4% -3.5 11
1940-12-01 Madrid CF W 3-0 1656 1780 61.0% 14.4% 24.5% +21.1 11
1940-12-01 @ Barcelona L 0-3 1780 1656 24.5% 14.4% 61.0% -21.1 11
1940-12-01 Real Oviedo W 3-0 1639 1630 72.7% 14.3% 13.0% +11.7 9
1940-12-01 @ Hercules L 0-3 1630 1639 13.0% 14.3% 72.7% -11.7 8
1940-12-01 Celta Vigo W 1-0 1604 1669 66.8% 14.4% 18.8% +6.0 8
1940-12-01 @ Real Zaragoza L 0-1 1669 1604 18.8% 14.4% 66.8% -6.0 7
1940-12-01 Atletico Bilbao W 1-0 1795 1719 76.7% 14.1% 9.2% +3.1 14
1940-12-01 @ Sevilla L 0-1 1719 1795 9.2% 14.1% 76.7% -3.1 11
1940-12-01 Real Murcia D 3-3 1713 1599 78.4% 14.0% 7.5% -3.2 10
1940-12-01 @ Valencia D 3-3 1599 1713 7.5% 14.0% 78.4% +3.2 6
1940-12-08 Barcelona W 3-1 1716 1678 74.5% 14.2% 11.2% +6.1 13
1940-12-08 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-3 1678 1716 11.2% 14.2% 74.5% -6.1 11
1940-12-08 Hercules W 2-0 1663 1651 72.9% 14.3% 12.8% +8.0 9
1940-12-08 @ Celta Vigo L 0-2 1651 1663 12.8% 14.3% 72.9% -8.0 9
1940-12-08 Sevilla W 4-3 1711 1798 64.8% 14.4% 20.8% +5.8 13
1940-12-08 @ Espanol L 3-4 1798 1711 20.8% 14.4% 64.8% -5.8 14
1940-12-08 Valencia W 6-1 1759 1709 75.2% 14.2% 10.6% +12.8 13
1940-12-08 @ Madrid CF L 1-6 1709 1759 10.6% 14.2% 75.2% -12.9 10
1940-12-08 Real Zaragoza W 1-0 1602 1610 71.5% 14.3% 14.2% +4.7 8
1940-12-08 @ Real Murcia L 0-1 1610 1602 14.2% 14.3% 71.5% -4.6 8
1940-12-08 Atletico Aviacion W 4-3 1618 1832 50.0% 14.5% 35.5% +9.3 10
1940-12-08 @ Real Oviedo L 3-4 1832 1618 35.5% 14.5% 50.0% -9.3 14
1940-12-15 Valencia W 5-0 1722 1697 73.7% 14.3% 12.0% +17.5 15
1940-12-15 @ Atletico Bilbao L 0-5 1697 1722 12.0% 14.3% 73.7% -17.5 10
1940-12-15 Sevilla W 4-0 1672 1793 61.3% 14.4% 24.2% +27.3 13
1940-12-15 @ Barcelona L 0-4 1793 1672 24.2% 14.4% 61.3% -27.3 14
1940-12-15 Atletico Aviacion L 0-2 1671 1822 57.9% 14.5% 27.6% -31.2 9
1940-12-15 @ Celta Vigo W 2-0 1822 1671 27.6% 14.5% 57.9% +31.2 16
1940-12-15 Real Zaragoza W 6-0 1772 1605 80.4% 13.9% 5.7% +10.1 15
1940-12-15 @ Madrid CF L 0-6 1605 1772 5.7% 13.9% 80.4% -10.1 8
1940-12-15 Hercules D 0-0 1606 1643 69.3% 14.4% 16.3% -4.2 9
1940-12-15 @ Real Murcia D 0-0 1643 1606 16.3% 14.4% 69.3% +4.2 10
1940-12-15 Espanol D 3-3 1628 1716 64.6% 14.4% 20.9% -1.9 11
1940-12-15 @ Real Oviedo D 3-3 1716 1628 20.9% 14.4% 64.6% +1.9 14
1940-12-22 Real Murcia W 6-0 1854 1602 82.8% 13.6% 3.6% +6.4 18
1940-12-22 @ Atletico Aviacion L 0-6 1602 1854 3.6% 13.6% 82.8% -6.4 9
1940-12-22 Celta Vigo W 4-1 1718 1640 76.8% 14.1% 9.1% +7.0 16
1940-12-22 @ Espanol L 1-4 1640 1718 9.1% 14.1% 76.8% -7.0 9
1940-12-22 Madrid CF L 0-3 1647 1782 59.8% 14.5% 25.7% -46.8 10
1940-12-22 @ Hercules W 3-0 1782 1647 25.7% 14.5% 59.8% +46.8 17
1940-12-22 Atletico Bilbao D 2-2 1595 1739 58.8% 14.5% 26.8% -1.6 9
1940-12-22 @ Real Zaragoza D 2-2 1739 1595 26.8% 14.5% 58.8% +1.6 16
1940-12-22 Real Oviedo W 4-1 1765 1626 79.4% 14.0% 6.6% +5.1 16
1940-12-22 @ Sevilla L 1-4 1626 1765 6.6% 14.0% 79.4% -5.1 11
1940-12-22 Barcelona W 3-1 1679 1699 70.6% 14.3% 15.0% +8.0 12
1940-12-22 @ Valencia L 1-3 1699 1679 15.0% 14.3% 70.6% -8.0 13
1940-12-29 Hercules W 4-0 1741 1601 79.5% 14.0% 6.6% +7.9 18
1940-12-29 @ Atletico Bilbao L 0-4 1601 1741 6.6% 14.0% 79.5% -7.9 10
1940-12-29 Real Zaragoza W 2-0 1691 1593 77.7% 14.1% 8.2% +5.2 15
1940-12-29 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1593 1691 8.2% 14.1% 77.7% -5.2 9
1940-12-29 Real Oviedo W 3-1 1633 1621 72.9% 14.3% 12.8% +6.9 11
1940-12-29 @ Celta Vigo L 1-3 1621 1633 12.8% 14.3% 72.9% -6.9 11
1940-12-29 Atletico Aviacion L 1-4 1829 1860 69.8% 14.4% 15.9% -46.1 17
1940-12-29 @ Madrid CF W 4-1 1860 1829 15.9% 14.4% 69.8% +46.1 20
1940-12-29 Espanol W 3-1 1596 1725 60.4% 14.4% 25.1% +12.9 11
1940-12-29 @ Real Murcia L 1-3 1725 1596 25.1% 14.4% 60.4% -12.9 16
1940-12-29 Sevilla W 4-1 1687 1770 65.2% 14.4% 20.4% +15.1 14
1940-12-29 @ Valencia L 1-4 1770 1687 20.4% 14.4% 65.2% -15.1 16
1941-01-05 Madrid CF W 3-2 1713 1783 66.4% 14.4% 19.2% +5.5 18
1941-01-05 @ Espanol L 2-3 1783 1713 19.2% 14.4% 66.4% -5.5 17
1941-01-05 Barcelona L 1-3 1593 1696 63.2% 14.4% 22.4% -29.5 10
1941-01-05 @ Hercules W 3-1 1696 1593 22.4% 14.4% 63.2% +29.5 17
1941-01-05 Real Murcia W 2-1 1614 1609 72.4% 14.3% 13.3% +4.1 13
1941-01-05 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1609 1614 13.3% 14.3% 72.4% -4.1 11
1941-01-05 Valencia L 1-2 1588 1702 62.1% 14.4% 23.5% -16.7 9
1941-01-05 @ Real Zaragoza W 2-1 1702 1588 23.5% 14.4% 62.1% +16.7 16
1941-01-05 Celta Vigo W 3-0 1755 1640 78.5% 14.0% 7.5% +6.9 18
1941-01-05 @ Sevilla L 0-3 1640 1755 7.5% 14.0% 78.5% -6.9 11
1941-01-06 Atletico Bilbao D 1-1 1906 1749 80.1% 13.9% 6.0% -5.5 21
1941-01-06 @ Atletico Aviacion D 1-1 1749 1906 6.0% 13.9% 80.1% +5.5 19
1941-01-19 Espanol W 6-2 1754 1718 74.4% 14.2% 11.3% +9.5 21
1941-01-19 @ Atletico Bilbao L 2-6 1718 1754 11.3% 14.2% 74.4% -9.5 18
1941-01-19 Atletico Aviacion L 2-4 1725 1901 55.0% 14.5% 30.5% -23.0 17
1941-01-19 @ Barcelona W 4-2 1901 1725 30.5% 14.5% 55.0% +23.0 23
1941-01-19 Celta Vigo W 3-0 1605 1633 70.0% 14.3% 15.7% +14.0 13
1941-01-19 @ Real Murcia L 0-3 1633 1605 15.7% 14.3% 70.0% -14.0 11
1941-01-19 Sevilla L 0-3 1571 1762 53.0% 14.5% 32.5% -41.7 9
1941-01-19 @ Real Zaragoza W 3-0 1762 1571 32.5% 14.5% 53.0% +41.7 20
1941-01-19 Hercules W 6-0 1719 1563 80.0% 13.9% 6.0% +10.7 18
1941-01-19 @ Valencia L 0-6 1563 1719 6.0% 13.9% 80.0% -10.7 10
1941-01-21 Real Oviedo W 1-0 1777 1618 80.2% 13.9% 5.9% +2.0 19
1941-01-21 @ Madrid CF L 0-1 1618 1777 5.9% 13.9% 80.2% -2.0 13
1941-01-26 Valencia D 2-2 1924 1730 81.3% 13.8% 4.9% -4.2 24
1941-01-26 @ Atletico Aviacion D 2-2 1730 1924 4.9% 13.8% 81.3% +4.2 19
1941-01-26 Madrid CF L 1-2 1619 1779 56.8% 14.5% 28.7% -15.3 11
1941-01-26 @ Celta Vigo W 2-1 1779 1619 28.7% 14.5% 56.8% +15.3 21
1941-01-26 Barcelona W 3-1 1709 1702 72.5% 14.3% 13.2% +7.1 20
1941-01-26 @ Espanol L 1-3 1702 1709 13.2% 14.3% 72.5% -7.1 17
1941-01-26 Real Zaragoza W 1-0 1552 1530 73.6% 14.3% 12.1% +4.0 12
1941-01-26 @ Hercules L 0-1 1530 1552 12.1% 14.3% 73.6% -4.0 9
1941-01-26 Atletico Bilbao L 0-2 1616 1764 58.3% 14.5% 27.2% -31.4 13
1941-01-26 @ Real Oviedo W 2-0 1764 1616 27.2% 14.5% 58.3% +31.5 23
1941-01-26 Real Murcia W 3-2 1804 1619 81.0% 13.8% 5.1% +1.6 22
1941-01-26 @ Sevilla L 2-3 1619 1804 5.1% 13.8% 81.0% -1.6 13
1941-02-02 Celta Vigo W 4-1 1795 1604 81.2% 13.8% 5.0% +3.9 25
1941-02-02 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-4 1604 1795 5.0% 13.8% 81.2% -3.9 11
1941-02-02 Real Oviedo W 7-0 1695 1584 78.3% 14.1% 7.7% +15.7 19
1941-02-02 @ Barcelona L 0-7 1584 1695 7.7% 14.1% 78.3% -15.6 13
1941-02-02 Sevilla W 1-0 1556 1806 45.1% 14.4% 40.4% +12.0 14
1941-02-02 @ Hercules L 0-1 1806 1556 40.4% 14.4% 45.1% -12.0 22
1941-02-02 Real Murcia W 2-1 1795 1617 80.8% 13.8% 5.4% +1.7 23
1941-02-02 @ Madrid CF L 1-2 1617 1795 5.4% 13.8% 80.8% -1.7 13
1941-02-02 Atletico Aviacion D 1-1 1526 1920 26.1% 14.2% 59.7% +2.3 10
1941-02-02 @ Real Zaragoza D 1-1 1920 1526 59.7% 14.2% 26.1% -2.3 25
1941-02-02 Espanol W 3-0 1734 1716 73.3% 14.3% 12.4% +11.2 21
1941-02-02 @ Valencia L 0-3 1716 1734 12.4% 14.3% 73.3% -11.2 20
1941-02-09 Hercules W 7-1 1917 1568 84.8% 13.2% 2.1% +3.1 27
1941-02-09 @ Atletico Aviacion L 1-7 1568 1917 2.1% 13.2% 84.8% -3.1 14
1941-02-09 Barcelona L 1-4 1600 1711 62.4% 14.4% 23.2% -41.1 11
1941-02-09 @ Celta Vigo W 4-1 1711 1600 23.2% 14.4% 62.4% +41.1 21
1941-02-09 Real Zaragoza W 3-0 1704 1528 80.7% 13.9% 5.4% +5.0 22
1941-02-09 @ Espanol L 0-3 1528 1704 5.4% 13.9% 80.7% -5.0 10
1941-02-09 Atletico Bilbao L 1-3 1615 1799 54.0% 14.5% 31.6% -25.3 13
1941-02-09 @ Real Murcia W 3-1 1799 1615 31.6% 14.5% 54.0% +25.3 27
1941-02-09 Valencia D 3-3 1569 1745 54.9% 14.5% 30.7% -1.0 14
1941-02-09 @ Real Oviedo D 3-3 1745 1569 30.7% 14.5% 54.9% +1.0 22
1941-02-09 Madrid CF W 5-4 1794 1796 71.9% 14.3% 13.8% +3.9 24
1941-02-09 @ Sevilla L 4-5 1796 1794 13.8% 14.3% 71.9% -3.9 23
1941-02-16 Madrid CF W 3-1 1824 1793 74.2% 14.2% 11.6% +6.3 29
1941-02-16 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-3 1793 1824 11.6% 14.2% 74.2% -6.3 23
1941-02-16 Sevilla W 3-1 1920 1797 78.8% 14.0% 7.2% +4.0 29
1941-02-16 @ Atletico Aviacion L 1-3 1797 1920 7.2% 14.0% 78.8% -4.0 24
1941-02-16 Real Murcia W 3-0 1752 1590 80.3% 13.9% 5.9% +5.4 23
1941-02-16 @ Barcelona L 0-3 1590 1752 5.9% 13.9% 80.3% -5.4 13
1941-02-16 Espanol W 3-2 1565 1709 58.8% 14.5% 26.8% +7.5 16
1941-02-16 @ Hercules L 2-3 1709 1565 26.8% 14.5% 58.8% -7.5 22
1941-02-16 Real Oviedo W 3-0 1523 1568 68.6% 14.4% 17.0% +15.1 12
1941-02-16 @ Real Zaragoza L 0-3 1568 1523 17.0% 14.4% 68.6% -15.1 14
1941-02-16 Celta Vigo W 5-1 1746 1559 81.1% 13.8% 5.1% +5.1 24
1941-02-16 @ Valencia L 1-5 1559 1746 5.1% 13.8% 81.1% -5.1 11
1941-02-23 Sevilla W 2-1 1831 1794 74.5% 14.2% 11.3% +3.5 31
1941-02-23 @ Atletico Bilbao L 1-2 1794 1831 11.3% 14.2% 74.5% -3.5 24
1941-02-23 Atletico Aviacion L 2-3 1702 1924 48.9% 14.4% 36.7% -12.6 22
1941-02-23 @ Espanol W 3-2 1924 1702 36.7% 14.4% 48.9% +12.6 31
1941-02-23 Barcelona L 1-2 1786 1758 74.0% 14.2% 11.8% -20.0 23
1941-02-23 @ Madrid CF W 2-1 1758 1786 11.8% 14.2% 74.0% +20.0 25
1941-02-23 Valencia L 2-5 1585 1751 56.1% 14.5% 29.4% -32.1 13
1941-02-23 @ Real Murcia W 5-2 1751 1585 29.4% 14.5% 56.1% +32.1 26
1941-02-23 Hercules W 6-0 1553 1573 70.6% 14.3% 15.1% +25.8 16
1941-02-23 @ Real Oviedo L 0-6 1573 1553 15.1% 14.3% 70.6% -25.8 16
1941-03-02 Real Oviedo W 3-0 1937 1578 84.9% 13.1% 2.0% +1.8 33
1941-03-02 @ Atletico Aviacion L 0-3 1578 1937 2.0% 13.1% 84.9% -1.8 16
1941-03-02 Atletico Bilbao W 1-0 1778 1834 67.6% 14.4% 18.0% +5.8 27
1941-03-02 @ Barcelona L 0-1 1834 1778 18.0% 14.4% 67.6% -5.8 31
1941-03-02 Celta Vigo L 0-5 1547 1553 71.6% 14.3% 14.1% -90.5 16
1941-03-02 @ Hercules W 5-0 1553 1547 14.1% 14.3% 71.6% +90.5 13
1941-03-02 Real Murcia W 2-1 1538 1553 71.0% 14.3% 14.6% +4.5 14
1941-03-02 @ Real Zaragoza L 1-2 1553 1538 14.6% 14.3% 71.0% -4.5 13
1941-03-02 Espanol W 3-1 1790 1689 77.8% 14.1% 8.1% +4.5 26
1941-03-02 @ Sevilla L 1-3 1689 1790 8.1% 14.1% 77.8% -4.4 22
1941-03-02 Madrid CF D 1-1 1783 1766 73.2% 14.3% 12.5% -4.4 27
1941-03-02 @ Valencia D 1-1 1766 1783 12.5% 14.3% 73.2% +4.4 24
1941-03-30 Real Zaragoza W 1-0 1644 1543 77.8% 14.1% 8.1% +2.7 15
1941-03-30 @ Celta Vigo L 0-1 1543 1644 8.1% 14.1% 77.8% -2.7 14

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1941-05-01 Real Zaragoza W 3-2 1626 1540 77.1% 14.1% 8.7% +2.6 1-0
1941-05-01 @ Castellon L 2-3 1540 1626 8.7% 14.1% 77.1% -2.6 0-1
1941-05-03 Real Murcia W 2-1 1726 1548 80.8% 13.8% 5.3% +1.7 1-0
1941-05-03 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-2 1548 1726 5.3% 13.8% 80.8% -1.7 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1940-11-24 7.42% Hercules 1618 2 @ Espanol 1736 1
2 1940-11-24 7.85% Atletico Bilbao 1696 1 @ Madrid CF 1803 0
3 1941-02-23 11.78% Barcelona 1758 2 @ Madrid CF 1786 1
4 1940-11-10 12.22% Atletico Bilbao 1662 2 @ Celta Vigo 1684 1
5 1940-10-27 12.33% Valencia 1673 2 @ Hercules 1693 0
6 1940-11-24 12.94% Barcelona 1622 3 @ Real Murcia 1633 1
7 1940-10-20 13.25% Real Oviedo 1646 2 @ Real Murcia 1652 1
8 1940-10-20 13.54% Atletico Aviacion 1745 5 @ Atletico Bilbao 1746 0
9 1941-03-02 14.06% Celta Vigo 1553 5 @ Hercules 1547 0
10 1940-10-06 14.48% Sevilla 1727 4 @ Real Oviedo 1715 0
11 1940-11-17 14.85% Espanol 1680 3 @ Real Zaragoza 1663 0
12 1940-11-03 15.04% Espanol 1657 3 @ Barcelona 1637 2
13 1940-12-29 15.89% Atletico Aviacion 1860 4 @ Madrid CF 1829 1
14 1940-10-27 22.30% Madrid CF 1769 2 @ Real Oviedo 1666 0
15 1941-01-05 22.36% Barcelona 1696 3 @ Hercules 1593 1
16 1941-02-09 23.18% Barcelona 1711 4 @ Celta Vigo 1600 1
17 1941-01-05 23.47% Valencia 1702 2 @ Real Zaragoza 1588 1
18 1940-12-22 25.72% Madrid CF 1782 3 @ Hercules 1647 0
19 1941-01-26 27.22% Atletico Bilbao 1764 2 @ Real Oviedo 1616 0
20 1940-12-15 27.60% Atletico Aviacion 1822 2 @ Celta Vigo 1671 0
21 1941-01-26 28.71% Madrid CF 1779 2 @ Celta Vigo 1619 1
22 1941-02-23 29.44% Valencia 1751 5 @ Real Murcia 1585 2
23 1941-01-19 30.52% Atletico Aviacion 1901 4 @ Barcelona 1725 2
24 1941-02-09 31.58% Atletico Bilbao 1799 3 @ Real Murcia 1615 1
25 1941-01-19 32.50% Sevilla 1762 3 @ Real Zaragoza 1571 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-10-20 91.24 Atletico Aviacion 5 1745 13.54% @ Atletico Bilbao 0 1746 72.15% 14.30%
2 1941-03-02 90.52 Celta Vigo 5 1553 14.06% @ Hercules 0 1547 71.62% 14.32%
3 1940-10-06 72.99 Sevilla 4 1727 14.48% @ Real Oviedo 0 1715 71.19% 14.33%
4 1940-11-17 55.56 Espanol 3 1680 14.85% @ Real Zaragoza 0 1663 70.82% 14.34%
5 1940-12-22 46.82 Madrid CF 3 1782 25.72% @ Hercules 0 1647 59.82% 14.46%
6 1940-12-29 46.12 Atletico Aviacion 4 1860 15.89% @ Madrid CF 1 1829 69.76% 14.36%
7 1941-01-19 41.73 Sevilla 3 1762 32.50% @ Real Zaragoza 0 1571 53.04% 14.46%
8 1941-02-09 41.14 Barcelona 4 1711 23.18% @ Celta Vigo 1 1600 62.38% 14.44%
9 1940-10-27 39.73 Valencia 2 1673 12.33% @ Hercules 0 1693 73.40% 14.27%
10 1940-11-24 34.09 Barcelona 3 1622 12.94% @ Real Murcia 1 1633 72.78% 14.29%
11 1940-10-27 34.07 Madrid CF 2 1769 22.30% @ Real Oviedo 0 1666 63.27% 14.44%
12 1941-02-23 32.13 Valencia 5 1751 29.44% @ Real Murcia 2 1585 56.10% 14.46%
13 1941-01-26 31.45 Atletico Bilbao 2 1764 27.22% @ Real Oviedo 0 1616 58.32% 14.46%
14 1940-12-15 31.24 Atletico Aviacion 2 1822 27.60% @ Celta Vigo 0 1671 57.93% 14.46%
15 1941-01-05 29.48 Barcelona 3 1696 22.36% @ Hercules 1 1593 63.20% 14.44%
16 1940-09-29 29.44 @ Espanol 5 1655 64.65% Real Oviedo 0 1744 20.92% 14.43%
17 1940-11-03 29.30 @ Real Zaragoza 7 1637 70.90% Hercules 0 1653 14.77% 14.33%
18 1940-12-15 27.28 @ Barcelona 4 1672 61.34% Sevilla 0 1793 24.21% 14.45%
19 1941-02-23 25.80 @ Real Oviedo 6 1553 70.59% Hercules 0 1573 15.07% 14.34%
20 1941-02-09 25.29 Atletico Bilbao 3 1799 31.58% @ Real Murcia 1 1615 53.96% 14.46%
21 1940-09-29 24.49 @ Sevilla 11 1702 75.28% Barcelona 1 1652 10.52% 14.20%
22 1941-01-19 23.03 Atletico Aviacion 4 1901 30.52% @ Barcelona 2 1725 55.02% 14.46%
23 1940-11-24 22.51 Atletico Bilbao 1 1696 7.85% @ Madrid CF 0 1803 78.09% 14.06%
24 1940-10-06 21.48 @ Celta Vigo 7 1662 70.44% Espanol 1 1685 15.22% 14.34%
25 1940-11-24 21.36 Hercules 2 1618 7.42% @ Espanol 1 1736 78.55% 14.03%