2026-27 Premiership Season
0 games played · 12 teams
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Celtic
44.45% chance to win the title
Biggest Overachiever
Aberdeen
0.00 points above expected
0 points · 0.00 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Aberdeen
0.00 points below expected
0 points · 0.00 expected points
League Table
Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 6 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 10 | Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 11 | St. Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 12 | St. Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Form
Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)
League Race
Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.
Season Summary
Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Exp. Pts. Rem. | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1819 | 0 | 65.68 | 65.68 | 38 | 54 | 61 | 66 | 70 | 77 | 88 |
| Rangers | 1798 | 0 | 63.24 | 63.24 | 35 | 52 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 74 | 89 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 1785 | 0 | 61.85 | 61.85 | 38 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 73 | 86 |
| Motherwell | 1699 | 0 | 52.30 | 52.30 | 27 | 41 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 64 | 81 |
| Hibernian | 1684 | 0 | 51.08 | 51.08 | 27 | 40 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 63 | 81 |
| St. Johnstone | 1625 | 0 | 44.26 | 44.26 | 19 | 33 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 56 | 71 |
| Kilmarnock | 1580 | 0 | 38.07 | 38.07 | 12 | 27 | 33 | 38 | 43 | 49 | 66 |
| Falkirk | 1575 | 0 | 37.57 | 37.57 | 14 | 27 | 33 | 37 | 42 | 49 | 63 |
| Dundee United | 1543 | 0 | 34.15 | 34.15 | 12 | 23 | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 61 |
| Dundee | 1523 | 0 | 32.16 | 32.16 | 12 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 43 | 57 |
| Aberdeen | 1521 | 0 | 32.09 | 32.09 | 10 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 43 | 58 |
| St. Mirren | 1489 | 0 | 28.64 | 28.64 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 29 | 33 | 39 | 53 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
| Team |
|---|
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | — | — |
| Allowed | — | — |
| Differential | — | — |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Celtic | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Dundee | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Falkirk | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Celtic | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Dundee | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Falkirk | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Finish Position Heatmap
Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | — | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.35% | 1.33% | 3.93% | 7.70% | 12.12% | 15.98% | 18.55% | 20.13% | 19.86% |
| Celtic | 44.45% | 28.69% | 17.45% | 6.49% | 2.31% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.04% | — | — | — | — |
| Dundee | — | — | 0.01% | 0.25% | 1.38% | 3.97% | 8.49% | 12.28% | 15.66% | 18.69% | 19.89% | 19.38% |
| Dundee United | — | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.68% | 2.13% | 6.45% | 11.97% | 14.94% | 17.67% | 17.11% | 16.55% | 12.40% |
| Falkirk | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.36% | 1.82% | 5.51% | 12.36% | 17.94% | 19.25% | 15.47% | 13.03% | 9.21% | 5.00% |
| Heart of Midlothian | 21.87% | 28.05% | 27.68% | 14.87% | 5.57% | 1.54% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.02% | — | — | — |
| Hibernian | 1.63% | 5.49% | 11.81% | 25.44% | 27.67% | 15.55% | 6.80% | 3.45% | 1.35% | 0.51% | 0.23% | 0.07% |
| Kilmarnock | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.42% | 2.22% | 6.19% | 13.57% | 19.14% | 18.16% | 14.96% | 12.15% | 8.29% | 4.76% |
| Motherwell | 2.72% | 6.74% | 14.69% | 27.97% | 25.37% | 12.71% | 5.71% | 2.33% | 1.13% | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| Rangers | 29.12% | 30.15% | 24.62% | 10.85% | 3.82% | 1.13% | 0.23% | 0.06% | — | 0.02% | — | — |
| St. Johnstone | 0.18% | 0.70% | 2.83% | 9.01% | 18.38% | 26.79% | 18.16% | 10.76% | 6.71% | 3.64% | 2.17% | 0.67% |
| St. Mirren | — | — | — | 0.05% | 0.34% | 1.51% | 3.46% | 6.53% | 11.05% | 15.91% | 23.33% | 37.82% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Points Totals in Context
Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Same level | Qualified for relegation playoff final | Lost relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 100% | — | — |
| Heart of Midlothian | 100% | — | — |
| Rangers | 100% | — | — |
| Hibernian | 99.87% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| Motherwell | 99.89% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| St. Johnstone | 97.91% | 1.67% | 0.42% |
| Kilmarnock | 88.48% | 7.68% | 3.84% |
| Falkirk | 87.36% | 8.15% | 4.49% |
| Dundee United | 72.12% | 15.89% | 11.99% |
| Dundee | 59.11% | 21.34% | 19.55% |
| Aberdeen | 59.10% | 21.30% | 19.60% |
| St. Mirren | 36.16% | 23.75% | 40.09% |