1999-00 Scottish Premier League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

90 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

13.25 points above expected

90 points · 76.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kilmarnock

13.40 points below expected

37 points · 50.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rangers	36	28	6	2	90	96	26	+70	76.75	+13.25
2	Celtic	36	21	6	9	69	90	38	+52	72.84	-3.84
3	Heart of Midlothian	36	15	9	12	54	47	40	+7	51.68	+2.32
4	Motherwell	36	14	10	12	52	49	63	-14	43.03	+8.97
5	St. Johnstone	36	10	12	14	42	36	44	-8	49.62	-7.62
6	Hibernian	36	10	11	15	41	49	61	-12	36.93	+4.07
7	Dundee	36	12	5	19	41	45	64	-19	41.96	-0.96
8	Dundee United	36	11	6	19	39	34	57	-23	43.89	-4.89
9	Kilmarnock	36	8	13	15	37	38	52	-14	50.40	-13.40
10	Aberdeen	36	9	6	21	33	44	83	-39	33.17	-0.17

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rangers	1946	90	76.75	+13.25	97.8%	50	65	72	77	82	88	101
Celtic	1873	69	72.84	-3.84	32.2%	44	61	68	73	78	85	97
Heart of Midlothian	1725	54	51.68	+2.32	64.2%	24	39	46	52	57	64	79
St. Johnstone	1690	42	49.62	-7.62	18.1%	23	37	44	50	55	62	80
Kilmarnock	1670	37	50.40	-13.40	4.4%	22	38	45	50	56	63	78
Motherwell	1655	52	43.03	+8.97	89.9%	17	31	38	43	48	55	73
Dundee	1641	41	41.96	-0.96	48.1%	17	30	37	42	47	55	71
Dundee United	1609	39	43.89	-4.89	28.3%	16	31	39	44	49	56	72
Hibernian	1608	41	36.93	+4.07	73.5%	10	25	32	37	42	49	69
Aberdeen	1603	33	33.17	-0.17	53.1%	11	22	28	33	38	45	66

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ABE	CEL	DUN	DU	HOM	HIB	KIL	MOT	RAN	SJ
Aberdeen	—	0-0-4 2.23	2-0-2 4.57	1-1-2 4.09	1-0-3 3.61	1-1-2 4.96	1-1-2 3.72	2-1-1 4.41	0-1-3 1.83	1-1-2 3.72
Celtic	4-0-0 9.10	—	3-1-0 8.60	3-0-1 8.57	2-0-2 7.88	2-1-1 9.06	3-1-0 7.95	1-1-2 8.63	0-1-3 5.07	3-1-0 7.93
Dundee	2-0-2 6.47	0-1-3 2.64	—	1-0-3 5.38	1-1-2 4.51	2-0-2 6.15	1-2-1 4.57	3-0-1 5.29	1-0-3 2.28	1-1-2 4.62
Dundee United	2-1-1 6.97	1-0-3 2.67	3-0-1 5.64	—	1-0-3 4.65	1-1-2 6.33	0-3-1 4.76	1-1-2 5.63	0-0-4 2.27	2-0-2 4.92
Heart of Midlothian	3-0-1 7.49	2-0-2 3.27	2-1-1 6.52	3-0-1 6.39	—	1-1-2 7.13	1-3-0 5.75	1-2-1 6.44	0-0-4 2.88	2-2-0 5.70
Hibernian	2-1-1 6.06	1-1-2 2.25	2-0-2 4.88	2-1-1 4.70	2-1-1 3.94	—	1-1-2 4.14	0-3-1 4.75	0-1-3 2.07	0-2-2 4.31
Kilmarnock	2-1-1 7.36	0-1-3 3.20	1-2-1 6.46	1-3-0 6.26	0-3-1 5.27	2-1-1 6.91	—	1-0-3 6.27	0-1-3 3.01	1-1-2 5.58
Motherwell	1-1-2 6.63	2-1-1 2.62	1-0-3 5.73	2-1-1 5.39	1-2-1 4.59	1-3-0 6.28	3-0-1 4.76	—	1-0-3 2.35	2-2-0 4.74
Rangers	3-1-0 9.59	3-1-0 5.95	3-0-1 9.03	4-0-0 9.05	4-0-0 8.32	3-1-0 9.29	3-1-0 8.18	3-0-1 8.95	—	2-2-0 8.54
St. Johnstone	2-1-1 7.37	0-1-3 3.21	2-1-1 6.42	2-0-2 6.11	0-2-2 5.32	2-2-0 6.74	2-1-1 5.43	0-2-2 6.29	0-2-2 2.69	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+7.4
Allowed	0.62	-8.5
Differential	0.92	+4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.61%	6.67%	3.61%	2.50%	1.11%	28.06%
1	8.61%	10.00%	6.67%	2.22%	1.67%	1.67%	30.83%
2	6.67%	6.67%	7.22%	1.39%	0.56%	1.11%	23.61%
3	3.61%	2.22%	1.39%	0.56%	0.28%	—	8.06%
4	2.50%	1.67%	0.56%	0.28%	—	—	5.00%
5+	1.11%	1.67%	1.11%	—	—	0.56%	4.44%
Total	28.06%	30.83%	23.61%	8.06%	5.00%	4.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.47	+0.00
SD	1.41	1.41	2.13
CV	0.96	0.96	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	8.33%	11.11%	—	11.11%	41.67%
1	—	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	13.89%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%	5.56%
Total	5.56%	38.89%	22.22%	13.89%	—	19.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.31	-1.08
SD	1.51	1.77	2.59
CV	1.24	0.77	—
Max	6	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	25.00%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	36.11%	38.89%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	1.06	+1.44
SD	1.92	1.12	2.45
CV	0.77	1.06	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	—	2.78%	33.33%
2	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	2.78%	—	8.33%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.78	-0.53
SD	1.05	1.77	2.10
CV	0.84	1.00	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	13.89%	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	—	44.44%
1	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	25.00%
2	2.78%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	22.22%	13.89%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.58	-0.64
SD	1.01	1.18	1.69
CV	1.07	0.75	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	36.11%
2	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	25.00%	19.44%	8.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.11	+0.19
SD	1.17	1.21	1.89
CV	0.89	1.09	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	2.78%	16.67%	—	—	2.78%	27.78%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	36.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.69	-0.33
SD	1.29	1.21	1.72
CV	0.95	0.72	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	2.78%	2.78%	16.67%	—	2.78%	—	25.00%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	22.22%	41.67%	—	2.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.44	-0.39
SD	1.07	1.30	1.64
CV	1.01	0.90	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	—	5.56%	2.78%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	13.89%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	41.67%
2	13.89%	8.33%	11.11%	—	—	2.78%	36.11%
3	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%	2.78%
Total	30.56%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.75	-0.39
SD	0.99	1.76	1.92
CV	0.73	1.01	—
Max	5	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	2.78%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	47.22%	33.33%	19.44%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	0.72	+1.94
SD	1.76	0.78	1.79
CV	0.66	1.08	—
Max	7	2	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
1	8.33%	19.44%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	44.44%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.22	-0.22
SD	0.86	1.15	1.38
CV	0.86	0.94	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rangers	90	76.75	+13.25
2	Motherwell	52	43.03	+8.97
3	Hibernian	41	36.93	+4.07
4	Heart of Midlothian	54	51.68	+2.32
5	Aberdeen	33	33.17	-0.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Kilmarnock	37	50.40	-13.40
2	St. Johnstone	42	49.62	-7.62
3	Dundee United	39	43.89	-4.89
4	Celtic	69	72.84	-3.84
5	Dundee	41	41.96	-0.96

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Motherwell	3	Oct 23 – Oct 30	1 in 74
2	Aberdeen	3	Feb 5 – Feb 26	1 in 47
3	Hibernian	3	Oct 23 – Nov 6	1 in 46
4	Rangers	8	Jul 31 – Oct 2	1 in 42
5	Celtic	6	Aug 21 – Oct 24	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aberdeen	7	Aug 1 – Sep 18	1 in 80
2	St. Johnstone	4	Oct 24 – Nov 6	1 in 65
3	Dundee United	5	Apr 29 – May 21	1 in 35
4	Heart of Midlothian	3	Dec 8 – Dec 22	1 in 31
5	Celtic	2	Mar 5 – Mar 8	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Motherwell	8	Oct 23 – Dec 11	1 in 199
2	Rangers	22	Dec 11 – May 13	1 in 54
3	Hibernian	5	Oct 2 – Nov 6	1 in 24
4	Heart of Midlothian	6	Jan 22 – Mar 15	1 in 22
5	Aberdeen	4	Jan 26 – Feb 26	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kilmarnock	14	Sep 25 – Feb 12	1 in 898
2	Dundee United	12	Dec 18 – Apr 15	1 in 82
3	Celtic	4	Apr 8 – Apr 29	1 in 72
4	Heart of Midlothian	7	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 37
5	St. Johnstone	7	Sep 25 – Nov 21	1 in 34

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rangers	65.29%	32.56%	1.91%	0.17%	0.05%	0.02%	—	—	—	—
Celtic	34.13%	60.22%	4.49%	0.89%	0.20%	0.07%	—	—	—	—
Heart of Midlothian	0.22%	2.61%	31.45%	23.34%	16.70%	11.40%	6.89%	4.50%	2.19%	0.70%
Motherwell	0.01%	0.34%	5.54%	9.62%	13.05%	16.47%	17.71%	16.99%	13.25%	7.02%
St. Johnstone	0.18%	1.70%	21.31%	21.81%	18.33%	14.64%	9.89%	7.11%	3.56%	1.47%
Hibernian	—	0.03%	1.09%	2.50%	5.42%	8.17%	13.46%	18.76%	26.52%	24.05%
Dundee	—	0.24%	3.98%	8.07%	11.07%	15.26%	17.49%	18.46%	16.00%	9.43%
Dundee United	0.01%	0.31%	6.21%	10.99%	14.69%	16.27%	17.79%	15.37%	11.70%	6.66%
Kilmarnock	0.16%	1.99%	23.72%	21.82%	18.51%	13.79%	9.79%	6.03%	3.14%	1.05%
Aberdeen	—	—	0.30%	0.79%	1.98%	3.91%	6.98%	12.78%	23.64%	49.62%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+7.78%

Slight Edge

42.22%23.33%34.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.

137 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.27 goals

Neutral

-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.8

One-Team Race

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

65%

Rangers, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.58/gm

Comfortable

00.240.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.92 * Some Luck: 5.92 to 8.88 * Lucky: 8.88 to 11.84 * Wild Swing: 11.84 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.01 * Close: 1.01 to 1.51 * Off: 1.51 to 2.01 * Way Off: 2.01 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.45 points

Some Luck

07.4019

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

01.263

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.80%

Rangers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.41%

Kilmarnock

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.95

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

64%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Strong Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Very Frequent

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Very Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.01

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.55

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.95

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.94

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.066

Well Within Noise

00.1230.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Aberdeen	100%
Celtic	100%
Dundee	100%
Dundee United	100%
Heart of Midlothian	100%
Hibernian	100%
Kilmarnock	100%
Motherwell	100%
Rangers	100%
St. Johnstone	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1999-07-31	Dundee	W 2-1	1665	1660	42.2%	24.6%	33.2%	+4.4	3
1999-07-31	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1660	1665	33.2%	24.6%	42.2%	-4.4	0
1999-07-31	Motherwell	D 2-2	1599	1652	34.0%	24.6%	41.4%	+0.2	1
1999-07-31	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1652	1599	41.4%	24.6%	34.0%	-0.1	1
1999-07-31	Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1840	1733	55.8%	22.4%	21.9%	+3.1	3
1999-07-31	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1733	1840	21.9%	22.4%	55.8%	-3.1	0
1999-07-31	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1713	1699	43.5%	24.5%	32.0%	-13.3	0
1999-07-31	@ St. Johnstone	W 4-1	1699	1713	32.0%	24.5%	43.5%	+13.3	3
1999-08-01	Celtic	L 0-5	1631	1828	18.9%	21.1%	60.0%	-12.4	0
1999-08-01	@ Aberdeen	W 5-0	1828	1631	60.0%	21.1%	18.9%	+12.4	3
1999-08-07	St. Johnstone	W 3-0	1840	1700	59.7%	21.2%	19.1%	+7.8	6
1999-08-07	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1700	1840	19.1%	21.2%	59.7%	-7.8	0
1999-08-07	Rangers	L 0-4	1713	1844	24.8%	23.3%	51.9%	-13.1	3
1999-08-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-0	1844	1713	51.9%	23.3%	24.8%	+13.1	6
1999-08-07	Aberdeen	W 2-0	1730	1618	56.2%	22.2%	21.5%	+6.0	3
1999-08-07	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1618	1730	21.5%	22.2%	56.2%	-6.1	0
1999-08-07	Dundee United	D 2-2	1652	1670	38.9%	24.7%	36.4%	-0.1	2
1999-08-07	@ Motherwell	D 2-2	1670	1652	36.4%	24.7%	38.9%	+0.1	4
1999-08-08	Hibernian	L 3-4	1656	1599	49.4%	23.8%	26.9%	-5.6	0
1999-08-08	@ Dundee	W 4-3	1599	1656	26.9%	23.8%	49.4%	+5.6	4
1999-08-14	Dundee	L 0-2	1612	1650	36.0%	24.7%	39.2%	-9.4	0
1999-08-14	@ Aberdeen	W 2-0	1650	1612	39.2%	24.7%	36.0%	+9.4	3
1999-08-14	Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1604	1699	28.7%	24.1%	47.2%	+0.5	5
1999-08-14	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1699	1604	47.2%	24.1%	28.7%	-0.5	4
1999-08-15	Celtic	W 2-1	1670	1848	20.4%	21.8%	57.7%	+6.9	7
1999-08-15	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1848	1670	57.7%	21.8%	20.4%	-6.9	6
1999-08-15	Motherwell	W 4-1	1857	1652	66.8%	18.5%	14.7%	+5.0	9
1999-08-15	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1652	1857	14.7%	18.5%	66.8%	-5.0	2
1999-08-15	Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1692	1736	35.3%	24.7%	40.0%	+10.2	3
1999-08-15	@ St. Johnstone	L 0-2	1736	1692	40.0%	24.7%	35.3%	-10.2	3
1999-08-21	Celtic	L 1-2	1660	1841	20.2%	21.7%	58.1%	-2.8	3
1999-08-21	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1841	1660	58.1%	21.7%	20.2%	+2.8	9
1999-08-21	Motherwell	L 0-1	1726	1647	52.2%	23.2%	24.6%	-6.7	3
1999-08-21	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1647	1726	24.6%	23.2%	52.2%	+6.7	5
1999-08-21	Dundee United	W 4-1	1862	1677	64.6%	19.4%	16.0%	+5.4	12
1999-08-21	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1677	1862	16.0%	19.4%	64.6%	-5.4	7
1999-08-21	Hibernian	D 1-1	1702	1605	54.5%	22.7%	22.8%	-0.9	4
1999-08-21	@ St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1605	1702	22.8%	22.7%	54.5%	+0.9	6
1999-08-22	Aberdeen	W 3-0	1699	1603	54.3%	22.8%	22.9%	+9.3	7
1999-08-22	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1603	1699	22.9%	22.8%	54.3%	-9.3	0
1999-08-28	Rangers	L 0-1	1606	1867	14.6%	18.4%	67.0%	-2.1	6
1999-08-28	@ Hibernian	W 1-0	1867	1606	67.0%	18.4%	14.6%	+2.1	15
1999-08-28	Dundee	L 0-2	1653	1657	41.0%	24.7%	34.4%	-10.4	5
1999-08-28	@ Motherwell	W 2-0	1657	1653	34.4%	24.7%	41.0%	+10.4	6
1999-08-29	St. Johnstone	L 0-3	1593	1701	27.3%	23.9%	48.9%	-10.9	0
1999-08-29	@ Aberdeen	W 3-0	1701	1593	48.9%	23.9%	27.3%	+10.9	7
1999-08-29	Heart of Midlothian	W 4-0	1844	1708	59.1%	21.4%	19.5%	+10.4	12
1999-08-29	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1708	1844	19.5%	21.4%	59.1%	-10.4	7
1999-08-29	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1671	1719	34.8%	24.7%	40.6%	+0.2	8
1999-08-29	@ Dundee United	D 0-0	1719	1671	40.6%	24.7%	34.8%	-0.2	4
1999-09-11	Hibernian	W 3-1	1672	1604	50.7%	23.5%	25.7%	+6.2	11
1999-09-11	@ Dundee United	L 1-3	1604	1672	25.7%	23.5%	50.7%	-6.2	6
1999-09-11	Dundee	W 4-0	1698	1667	45.7%	24.3%	30.0%	+15.5	10
1999-09-11	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1667	1698	30.0%	24.3%	45.7%	-15.5	6
1999-09-11	Aberdeen	W 3-0	1869	1582	74.6%	14.9%	10.5%	+4.0	18
1999-09-11	@ Rangers	L 0-3	1582	1869	10.5%	14.9%	74.6%	-4.0	0
1999-09-11	Motherwell	D 1-1	1712	1643	50.9%	23.5%	25.6%	-0.7	8
1999-09-11	@ St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1643	1712	25.6%	23.5%	50.9%	+0.7	6
1999-09-12	Celtic	L 0-1	1719	1855	24.3%	23.2%	52.5%	-3.6	4
1999-09-12	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1855	1719	52.5%	23.2%	24.3%	+3.6	15
1999-09-18	Dundee United	L 1-2	1578	1678	28.2%	24.0%	47.7%	-3.9	0
1999-09-18	@ Aberdeen	W 2-1	1678	1578	47.7%	24.0%	28.2%	+3.9	14
1999-09-19	St. Johnstone	L 1-2	1652	1712	33.1%	24.6%	42.2%	-4.4	6
1999-09-19	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1712	1652	42.2%	24.6%	33.1%	+4.4	11
1999-09-19	Kilmarnock	L 0-3	1597	1715	26.2%	23.6%	50.2%	-10.5	6
1999-09-19	@ Hibernian	W 3-0	1715	1597	50.2%	23.6%	26.2%	+10.5	7
1999-09-25	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1682	1713	37.0%	24.8%	38.3%	-9.6	14
1999-09-25	@ Dundee United	W 2-0	1713	1682	38.3%	24.8%	37.0%	+9.6	13
1999-09-25	Celtic	L 0-2	1587	1858	14.0%	18.0%	68.0%	-3.8	6
1999-09-25	@ Hibernian	W 2-0	1858	1587	68.0%	18.0%	14.0%	+3.8	18
1999-09-25	Dundee	L 0-2	1726	1648	52.1%	23.3%	24.7%	-12.6	7
1999-09-25	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1648	1726	24.7%	23.3%	52.1%	+12.6	9
1999-09-25	St. Johnstone	W 3-1	1873	1716	61.6%	20.6%	17.9%	+4.3	21
1999-09-25	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1716	1873	17.9%	20.6%	61.6%	-4.3	11
1999-10-02	Hibernian	D 2-2	1575	1583	40.3%	24.7%	35.0%	-0.1	1
1999-10-02	@ Aberdeen	D 2-2	1583	1575	35.0%	24.7%	40.3%	+0.1	7
1999-10-02	Rangers	L 2-3	1660	1878	17.4%	20.3%	62.3%	-2.3	9
1999-10-02	@ Dundee	W 3-2	1878	1660	62.3%	20.3%	17.4%	+2.3	24
1999-10-16	Aberdeen	W 7-0	1862	1574	74.7%	14.8%	10.5%	+8.8	21
1999-10-16	@ Celtic	L 0-7	1574	1862	10.5%	14.8%	74.7%	-8.8	1
1999-10-16	St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1723	1712	43.1%	24.5%	32.4%	-0.3	14
1999-10-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1712	1723	32.4%	24.5%	43.1%	+0.3	12
1999-10-16	Rangers	D 1-1	1713	1880	21.4%	22.2%	56.4%	+1.0	8
1999-10-16	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1880	1713	56.4%	22.2%	21.4%	-1.0	25
1999-10-16	Hibernian	D 2-2	1644	1583	49.8%	23.7%	26.5%	-0.5	7
1999-10-16	@ Motherwell	D 2-2	1583	1644	26.5%	23.7%	49.8%	+0.5	8
1999-10-17	Dundee United	L 0-2	1658	1672	39.5%	24.7%	35.8%	-10.1	9
1999-10-17	@ Dundee	W 2-0	1672	1658	35.8%	24.7%	39.5%	+10.1	17
1999-10-20	Aberdeen	L 5-6	1643	1566	52.0%	23.3%	24.7%	-5.7	7
1999-10-20	@ Motherwell	W 6-5	1566	1643	24.7%	23.3%	52.0%	+5.7	4
1999-10-23	Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1571	1714	23.6%	23.0%	53.4%	+0.6	5
1999-10-23	@ Aberdeen	D 2-2	1714	1571	53.4%	23.0%	23.6%	-0.6	9
1999-10-23	Motherwell	L 0-2	1682	1637	47.6%	24.1%	28.3%	-11.7	17
1999-10-23	@ Dundee United	W 2-0	1637	1682	28.3%	24.1%	47.6%	+11.7	10
1999-10-23	Dundee	W 5-2	1584	1648	32.6%	24.6%	42.9%	+11.4	11
1999-10-23	@ Hibernian	L 2-5	1648	1584	42.9%	24.6%	32.6%	-11.4	9
1999-10-24	Celtic	L 1-2	1712	1871	22.1%	22.5%	55.4%	-3.1	12
1999-10-24	@ St. Johnstone	W 2-1	1871	1712	55.4%	22.5%	22.1%	+3.1	24
1999-10-27	Motherwell	L 0-1	1874	1649	68.8%	17.7%	13.6%	-8.4	24
1999-10-27	@ Celtic	W 1-0	1649	1874	13.6%	17.7%	68.8%	+8.4	13
1999-10-27	Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1723	1713	42.8%	24.6%	32.7%	-0.2	15
1999-10-27	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1713	1723	32.7%	24.6%	42.8%	+0.2	10
1999-10-27	Dundee United	L 0-1	1709	1670	46.8%	24.2%	29.0%	-6.1	12
1999-10-27	@ St. Johnstone	W 1-0	1670	1709	29.0%	24.2%	46.8%	+6.1	20
1999-10-30	Rangers	L 1-5	1572	1879	12.1%	16.4%	71.5%	-5.1	5
1999-10-30	@ Aberdeen	W 5-1	1879	1572	71.5%	16.4%	12.1%	+5.1	28
1999-10-30	Kilmarnock	W 5-1	1866	1714	61.0%	20.8%	18.2%	+8.1	27
1999-10-30	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1714	1866	18.2%	20.8%	61.0%	-8.1	10
1999-10-30	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1636	1722	29.8%	24.3%	45.9%	+6.0	12
1999-10-30	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1722	1636	45.9%	24.3%	29.8%	-6.0	15
1999-10-30	St. Johnstone	W 1-0	1658	1703	35.1%	24.7%	40.2%	+5.4	16
1999-10-30	@ Motherwell	L 0-1	1703	1658	40.2%	24.7%	35.1%	-5.4	12
1999-10-31	Dundee United	W 3-2	1595	1676	30.4%	24.3%	45.3%	+5.3	14
1999-10-31	@ Hibernian	L 2-3	1676	1595	45.3%	24.3%	30.4%	-5.3	20
1999-11-06	Aberdeen	W 3-1	1671	1567	55.3%	22.5%	22.2%	+5.4	23
1999-11-06	@ Dundee United	L 1-3	1567	1671	22.2%	22.5%	55.3%	-5.4	5
1999-11-06	Motherwell	D 1-1	1716	1663	48.8%	23.9%	27.3%	-0.6	16
1999-11-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1663	1716	27.3%	23.9%	48.8%	+0.6	17
1999-11-06	Hibernian	L 0-2	1706	1600	55.5%	22.5%	22.1%	-13.3	10
1999-11-06	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1600	1706	22.1%	22.5%	55.5%	+13.3	17
1999-11-06	Dundee	L 0-1	1697	1642	49.0%	23.8%	27.1%	-6.4	12
1999-11-06	@ St. Johnstone	W 1-0	1642	1697	27.1%	23.8%	49.0%	+6.4	15
1999-11-07	Celtic	W 4-2	1884	1874	42.9%	24.6%	32.5%	+6.7	31
1999-11-07	@ Rangers	L 2-4	1874	1884	32.5%	24.6%	42.9%	-6.7	27
1999-11-20	Motherwell	L 0-1	1649	1664	39.4%	24.7%	35.9%	-5.4	15
1999-11-20	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1664	1649	35.9%	24.7%	39.4%	+5.4	20
1999-11-20	Celtic	L 1-2	1716	1867	22.8%	22.7%	54.4%	-3.2	16
1999-11-20	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1867	1716	54.4%	22.7%	22.8%	+3.2	30
1999-11-20	Dundee United	D 1-1	1692	1677	43.7%	24.5%	31.8%	-0.3	11
1999-11-20	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1677	1692	31.8%	24.5%	43.7%	+0.3	24
1999-11-20	Hibernian	W 2-0	1891	1614	73.8%	15.3%	10.9%	+2.9	34
1999-11-20	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1614	1891	10.9%	15.3%	73.8%	-2.9	17
1999-11-21	Aberdeen	D 1-1	1691	1561	58.4%	21.6%	20.0%	-1.1	13
1999-11-21	@ St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1561	1691	20.0%	21.6%	58.4%	+1.1	6
1999-11-23	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1669	1713	35.3%	24.7%	40.0%	+5.1	23
1999-11-23	@ Motherwell	L 1-2	1713	1669	40.0%	24.7%	35.3%	-5.1	16
1999-11-24	St. Johnstone	L 0-1	1611	1690	30.7%	24.4%	45.0%	-4.4	17
1999-11-24	@ Hibernian	W 1-0	1690	1611	45.0%	24.4%	30.7%	+4.4	16
1999-11-27	St. Johnstone	W 1-0	1677	1694	39.0%	24.7%	36.2%	+5.0	27
1999-11-27	@ Dundee United	L 0-1	1694	1677	36.2%	24.7%	39.0%	-5.0	16
1999-11-27	Aberdeen	W 2-0	1606	1563	47.5%	24.1%	28.4%	+7.8	20
1999-11-27	@ Hibernian	L 0-2	1563	1606	28.4%	24.1%	47.5%	-7.8	6
1999-11-27	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1692	1707	39.3%	24.7%	36.0%	-0.1	12
1999-11-27	@ Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1707	1692	36.0%	24.7%	39.3%	+0.1	17
1999-11-28	Celtic	W 3-2	1674	1870	19.0%	21.2%	59.8%	+6.7	26
1999-11-28	@ Motherwell	L 2-3	1870	1674	59.8%	21.2%	19.0%	-6.7	30
1999-11-28	Dundee	L 1-2	1894	1643	71.3%	16.5%	12.2%	-8.1	34
1999-11-28	@ Rangers	W 2-1	1643	1894	12.2%	16.5%	71.3%	+8.1	18
1999-12-04	Hibernian	W 4-0	1863	1614	71.2%	16.6%	12.3%	+6.3	33
1999-12-04	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1614	1863	12.3%	16.6%	71.2%	-6.3	20
1999-12-05	Dundee United	W 3-0	1708	1682	45.1%	24.4%	30.6%	+12.0	20
1999-12-05	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1682	1708	30.6%	24.4%	45.1%	-12.0	27
1999-12-08	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1555	1720	21.6%	22.3%	56.1%	+11.6	9
1999-12-08	@ Aberdeen	L 1-3	1720	1555	56.1%	22.3%	21.6%	-11.6	20
1999-12-11	Celtic	L 0-6	1566	1870	12.3%	16.6%	71.2%	-9.2	9
1999-12-11	@ Aberdeen	W 6-0	1870	1566	71.2%	16.6%	12.3%	+9.2	36
1999-12-11	Motherwell	D 2-2	1608	1681	31.4%	24.5%	44.1%	+0.3	21
1999-12-11	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1681	1608	44.1%	24.5%	31.4%	-0.3	27
1999-12-11	Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1885	1692	65.6%	19.0%	15.4%	+2.3	37
1999-12-11	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1692	1885	15.4%	19.0%	65.6%	-2.3	12
1999-12-12	Dundee	W 1-0	1670	1651	44.1%	24.5%	31.5%	+4.5	30
1999-12-12	@ Dundee United	L 0-1	1651	1670	31.5%	24.5%	44.1%	-4.5	18
1999-12-18	Dundee United	W 4-1	1879	1674	66.7%	18.6%	14.7%	+5.0	39
1999-12-18	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1674	1879	14.7%	18.6%	66.7%	-5.0	30
1999-12-18	St. Johnstone	L 1-2	1690	1689	41.6%	24.6%	33.8%	-5.3	12
1999-12-18	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1689	1690	33.8%	24.6%	41.6%	+5.3	19
1999-12-18	Rangers	L 1-5	1681	1888	18.2%	20.7%	61.1%	-8.1	27
1999-12-18	@ Motherwell	W 5-1	1888	1681	61.1%	20.7%	18.2%	+8.1	40
1999-12-19	Hibernian	L 0-3	1708	1608	54.8%	22.6%	22.6%	-19.1	20
1999-12-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-0	1608	1708	22.6%	22.6%	54.8%	+19.1	24
1999-12-22	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1896	1689	67.0%	18.4%	14.6%	+2.1	43
1999-12-22	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1689	1896	14.6%	18.4%	67.0%	-2.1	20
1999-12-27	Dundee United	W 3-1	1557	1669	26.8%	23.8%	49.4%	+10.5	12
1999-12-27	@ Aberdeen	L 1-3	1669	1557	49.4%	23.8%	26.8%	-10.5	30
1999-12-27	Rangers	D 1-1	1884	1898	39.5%	24.7%	35.8%	-0.1	40
1999-12-27	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1898	1884	35.8%	24.7%	39.5%	+0.1	44
1999-12-27	St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1647	1694	34.8%	24.7%	40.5%	+0.2	19
1999-12-27	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1694	1647	40.5%	24.7%	34.8%	-0.2	20
1999-12-27	Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1627	1684	33.5%	24.6%	41.9%	+0.2	25
1999-12-27	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1684	1627	41.9%	24.6%	33.5%	-0.2	13
2000-01-22	Hibernian	D 0-0	1659	1627	45.9%	24.3%	29.8%	-0.5	31
2000-01-22	@ Dundee United	D 0-0	1627	1659	29.8%	24.3%	45.9%	+0.5	26
2000-01-22	Dundee	W 2-0	1687	1647	47.0%	24.1%	28.9%	+7.9	23
2000-01-22	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1647	1687	28.9%	24.1%	47.0%	-7.9	19
2000-01-22	Aberdeen	W 5-0	1898	1568	78.3%	13.0%	8.7%	+5.2	47
2000-01-22	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1568	1898	8.7%	13.0%	78.3%	-5.2	12
2000-01-22	Motherwell	D 1-1	1694	1672	44.5%	24.4%	31.1%	-0.4	21
2000-01-22	@ St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1672	1694	31.1%	24.4%	44.5%	+0.4	28
2000-01-23	Celtic	D 1-1	1684	1884	18.7%	21.0%	60.2%	+1.2	14
2000-01-23	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1884	1684	60.2%	21.0%	18.7%	-1.2	41
2000-01-26	Motherwell	D 1-1	1563	1673	27.0%	23.8%	49.2%	+0.6	13
2000-01-26	@ Aberdeen	D 1-1	1673	1563	49.2%	23.8%	27.0%	-0.6	29
2000-01-26	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1639	1685	34.9%	24.7%	40.4%	+0.2	20
2000-01-26	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1685	1639	40.4%	24.7%	34.9%	-0.2	15
2000-02-02	Rangers	L 0-4	1658	1903	15.6%	19.2%	65.2%	-8.2	31
2000-02-02	@ Dundee United	W 4-0	1903	1658	65.2%	19.2%	15.6%	+8.2	50
2000-02-05	St. Johnstone	W 2-1	1563	1694	24.8%	23.3%	51.8%	+6.3	16
2000-02-05	@ Aberdeen	L 1-2	1694	1563	51.8%	23.3%	24.8%	-6.3	21
2000-02-05	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1883	1695	65.0%	19.3%	15.8%	-7.2	41
2000-02-05	@ Celtic	W 3-2	1695	1883	15.8%	19.3%	65.0%	+7.2	26
2000-02-05	Dundee	L 0-3	1672	1639	46.1%	24.3%	29.7%	-16.6	29
2000-02-05	@ Motherwell	W 3-0	1639	1672	29.7%	24.3%	46.1%	+16.6	23
2000-02-06	Rangers	D 2-2	1628	1911	13.3%	17.4%	69.2%	+1.2	27
2000-02-06	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1911	1628	69.2%	17.4%	13.3%	-1.2	51
2000-02-12	Celtic	L 0-3	1656	1875	17.3%	20.2%	62.5%	-7.0	23
2000-02-12	@ Dundee	W 3-0	1875	1656	62.5%	20.2%	17.3%	+7.0	44
2000-02-12	Motherwell	L 0-2	1685	1656	45.6%	24.3%	30.1%	-11.3	15
2000-02-12	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1656	1685	30.1%	24.3%	45.6%	+11.3	32
2000-02-15	Rangers	D 1-1	1688	1910	17.1%	20.1%	62.8%	+1.4	22
2000-02-15	@ St. Johnstone	D 1-1	1910	1688	62.8%	20.1%	17.1%	-1.4	52
2000-02-22	Kilmarnock	L 0-4	1667	1674	40.5%	24.7%	34.8%	-19.6	32
2000-02-22	@ Motherwell	W 4-0	1674	1667	34.8%	24.7%	40.5%	+19.6	18
2000-02-22	Hibernian	W 1-0	1689	1629	49.7%	23.7%	26.6%	+3.9	25
2000-02-22	@ St. Johnstone	L 0-1	1629	1689	26.6%	23.7%	49.7%	-3.9	27
2000-02-23	Aberdeen	L 1-3	1649	1569	52.2%	23.2%	24.5%	-11.0	23
2000-02-23	@ Dundee	W 3-1	1569	1649	24.5%	23.2%	52.2%	+11.0	19
2000-02-26	Hibernian	W 4-0	1580	1625	35.1%	24.7%	40.2%	+19.4	22
2000-02-26	@ Aberdeen	L 0-4	1625	1580	40.2%	24.7%	35.1%	-19.4	27
2000-02-26	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1702	1694	42.6%	24.6%	32.8%	-0.3	27
2000-02-26	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1694	1702	32.8%	24.6%	42.6%	+0.3	19
2000-02-26	Dundee United	W 2-0	1693	1650	47.4%	24.1%	28.5%	+7.8	28
2000-02-26	@ St. Johnstone	L 0-2	1650	1693	28.5%	24.1%	47.4%	-7.8	31
2000-02-27	Rangers	L 1-7	1638	1909	14.0%	18.0%	68.0%	-8.8	23
2000-02-27	@ Dundee	W 7-1	1909	1638	68.0%	18.0%	14.0%	+8.8	55
2000-03-01	Dundee	W 6-2	1882	1629	71.5%	16.4%	12.1%	+4.4	47
2000-03-01	@ Celtic	L 2-6	1629	1882	12.1%	16.4%	71.5%	-4.3	23
2000-03-01	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1647	1701	33.9%	24.6%	41.5%	-9.0	32
2000-03-01	@ Motherwell	W 2-0	1701	1647	41.5%	24.6%	33.9%	+9.0	30
2000-03-04	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1642	1710	32.0%	24.5%	43.4%	-4.6	31
2000-03-04	@ Dundee United	W 1-0	1710	1642	43.4%	24.5%	32.0%	+4.6	33
2000-03-04	Dundee	D 2-2	1694	1625	50.9%	23.5%	25.6%	-0.5	20
2000-03-04	@ Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1625	1694	25.6%	23.5%	50.9%	+0.5	24
2000-03-04	Aberdeen	W 1-0	1638	1600	46.8%	24.2%	29.0%	+4.2	35
2000-03-04	@ Motherwell	L 0-1	1600	1638	29.0%	24.2%	46.8%	-4.2	22
2000-03-04	St. Johnstone	D 0-0	1918	1701	68.0%	18.0%	14.0%	-1.8	56
2000-03-04	@ Rangers	D 0-0	1701	1918	14.0%	18.0%	68.0%	+1.8	29
2000-03-05	Celtic	W 2-1	1606	1887	13.5%	17.6%	69.0%	+7.9	30
2000-03-05	@ Hibernian	L 1-2	1887	1606	69.0%	17.6%	13.5%	-7.9	47
2000-03-08	Rangers	L 0-1	1879	1916	36.2%	24.7%	39.1%	-5.0	47
2000-03-08	@ Celtic	W 1-0	1916	1879	39.1%	24.7%	36.2%	+5.0	59
2000-03-11	St. Johnstone	W 4-1	1874	1702	63.2%	20.0%	16.9%	+5.8	50
2000-03-11	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1702	1874	16.9%	20.0%	63.2%	-5.8	29
2000-03-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1697	1715	38.9%	24.7%	36.4%	-5.3	29
2000-03-15	@ St. Johnstone	W 1-0	1715	1697	36.4%	24.7%	38.9%	+5.3	36
2000-03-15	Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1638	1693	33.7%	24.6%	41.7%	+0.2	32
2000-03-15	@ Dundee United	D 2-2	1693	1638	41.7%	24.6%	33.7%	-0.2	21
2000-03-18	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1614	1720	27.4%	23.9%	48.7%	+10.3	33
2000-03-18	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1720	1614	48.7%	23.9%	27.4%	-10.3	36
2000-03-18	Motherwell	W 6-2	1921	1643	73.9%	15.2%	10.9%	+3.8	62
2000-03-18	@ Rangers	L 2-6	1643	1921	10.9%	15.2%	73.9%	-3.8	35
2000-03-18	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1691	1693	41.2%	24.7%	34.1%	-0.2	30
2000-03-18	@ St. Johnstone	D 0-0	1693	1691	34.1%	24.7%	41.2%	+0.2	22
2000-03-21	Dundee	L 1-2	1624	1625	41.3%	24.7%	34.0%	-5.2	33
2000-03-21	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1625	1624	34.0%	24.7%	41.3%	+5.2	27
2000-03-22	Aberdeen	W 3-0	1710	1596	56.6%	22.2%	21.3%	+8.7	39
2000-03-22	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1596	1710	21.3%	22.2%	56.6%	-8.7	22
2000-03-25	Aberdeen	D 1-1	1638	1587	48.5%	23.9%	27.6%	-0.6	33
2000-03-25	@ Dundee United	D 1-1	1587	1638	27.6%	23.9%	48.5%	+0.6	23
2000-03-25	Motherwell	D 0-0	1719	1639	52.3%	23.2%	24.5%	-0.9	40
2000-03-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1639	1719	24.5%	23.2%	52.3%	+0.9	36
2000-03-25	Hibernian	W 1-0	1693	1619	51.6%	23.4%	25.1%	+3.7	25
2000-03-25	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1619	1693	25.1%	23.4%	51.6%	-3.7	33
2000-03-25	Dundee	W 2-1	1691	1631	49.8%	23.7%	26.5%	+3.7	33
2000-03-25	@ St. Johnstone	L 1-2	1631	1691	26.5%	23.7%	49.8%	-3.7	27
2000-03-26	Celtic	W 4-0	1925	1880	47.7%	24.0%	28.2%	+14.7	65
2000-03-26	@ Rangers	L 0-4	1880	1925	28.2%	24.0%	47.7%	-14.7	50
2000-04-01	Rangers	D 1-1	1588	1939	10.0%	14.4%	75.6%	+2.0	24
2000-04-01	@ Aberdeen	D 1-1	1939	1588	75.6%	14.4%	10.0%	-2.0	66
2000-04-01	Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1627	1718	29.2%	24.2%	46.6%	+0.5	28
2000-04-01	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1718	1627	46.6%	24.2%	29.2%	-0.5	41
2000-04-01	Dundee United	W 1-0	1615	1637	38.3%	24.8%	36.9%	+5.1	36
2000-04-01	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1637	1615	36.9%	24.8%	38.3%	-5.1	33
2000-04-01	St. Johnstone	W 2-1	1640	1695	33.7%	24.6%	41.6%	+5.3	39
2000-04-01	@ Motherwell	L 1-2	1695	1640	41.6%	24.6%	33.7%	-5.3	33
2000-04-02	Kilmarnock	W 4-2	1865	1697	62.8%	20.1%	17.1%	+3.7	53
2000-04-02	@ Celtic	L 2-4	1697	1865	17.1%	20.1%	62.8%	-3.7	25
2000-04-04	Dundee United	W 3-0	1937	1632	76.2%	14.1%	9.7%	+3.6	69
2000-04-04	@ Rangers	L 0-3	1632	1937	9.7%	14.1%	76.2%	-3.6	33
2000-04-05	Motherwell	W 4-0	1869	1645	68.7%	17.7%	13.6%	+7.1	56
2000-04-05	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1645	1869	13.6%	17.7%	68.7%	-7.1	39
2000-04-08	Motherwell	W 4-1	1627	1638	40.0%	24.7%	35.3%	+11.4	31
2000-04-08	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1638	1627	35.3%	24.7%	40.0%	-11.4	39
2000-04-08	Celtic	W 1-0	1717	1876	22.2%	22.5%	55.3%	+7.0	44
2000-04-08	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1876	1717	55.3%	22.5%	22.2%	-7.0	56
2000-04-08	Dundee United	W 1-0	1693	1629	50.3%	23.6%	26.1%	+3.8	28
2000-04-08	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1629	1693	26.1%	23.6%	50.3%	-3.8	33
2000-04-12	Rangers	L 1-2	1724	1941	17.5%	20.3%	62.2%	-2.5	44
2000-04-12	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1941	1724	62.2%	20.3%	17.5%	+2.5	72
2000-04-12	Aberdeen	W 1-0	1697	1590	55.8%	22.4%	21.9%	+3.3	31
2000-04-12	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1590	1697	21.9%	22.4%	55.8%	-3.3	24
2000-04-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1586	1722	24.3%	23.2%	52.5%	-3.4	24
2000-04-15	@ Aberdeen	W 2-1	1722	1586	52.5%	23.2%	24.3%	+3.4	47
2000-04-15	Dundee	D 2-2	1869	1639	69.3%	17.4%	13.3%	-1.2	57
2000-04-15	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1639	1869	13.3%	17.4%	69.3%	+1.2	32
2000-04-15	Rangers	L 0-2	1625	1944	11.5%	15.9%	72.6%	-3.1	33
2000-04-15	@ Dundee United	W 2-0	1944	1625	72.6%	15.9%	11.5%	+3.1	75
2000-04-15	St. Johnstone	D 3-3	1620	1690	31.9%	24.5%	43.6%	+0.2	37
2000-04-15	@ Hibernian	D 3-3	1690	1620	43.6%	24.5%	31.9%	-0.2	34
2000-04-16	Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1626	1700	31.3%	24.4%	44.3%	+11.1	42
2000-04-16	@ Motherwell	L 0-2	1700	1626	44.3%	24.4%	31.3%	-11.1	31
2000-04-18	Dundee	L 0-1	1583	1640	33.5%	24.6%	41.9%	-4.7	24
2000-04-18	@ Aberdeen	W 1-0	1640	1583	41.9%	24.6%	33.5%	+4.7	35
2000-04-19	Dundee United	L 1-3	1638	1622	43.7%	24.5%	31.8%	-9.5	42
2000-04-19	@ Motherwell	W 3-1	1622	1638	31.8%	24.5%	43.7%	+9.5	36
2000-04-22	Motherwell	W 2-1	1578	1628	34.4%	24.7%	40.9%	+5.2	27
2000-04-22	@ Aberdeen	L 1-2	1628	1578	40.9%	24.7%	34.4%	-5.2	42
2000-04-22	Hibernian	D 1-1	1867	1620	71.0%	16.7%	12.4%	-1.8	58
2000-04-22	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1620	1867	12.4%	16.7%	71.0%	+1.8	38
2000-04-22	Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1645	1689	35.2%	24.7%	40.1%	-4.6	35
2000-04-22	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1689	1645	40.1%	24.7%	35.2%	+4.6	34
2000-04-22	Dundee United	L 1-2	1725	1631	54.1%	22.8%	23.1%	-6.5	47
2000-04-22	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1631	1725	23.1%	22.8%	54.1%	+6.5	39
2000-04-23	Rangers	L 0-2	1689	1947	14.8%	18.6%	66.6%	-4.1	34
2000-04-23	@ St. Johnstone	W 2-0	1947	1689	66.6%	18.6%	14.8%	+4.1	78
2000-04-29	St. Johnstone	L 0-1	1638	1685	34.8%	24.7%	40.6%	-4.9	39
2000-04-29	@ Dundee United	W 1-0	1685	1638	40.6%	24.7%	34.8%	+4.9	37
2000-04-29	Aberdeen	W 1-0	1622	1583	46.9%	24.1%	29.0%	+4.2	41
2000-04-29	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1583	1622	29.0%	24.1%	46.9%	-4.2	27
2000-04-29	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1694	1719	38.0%	24.8%	37.3%	-5.2	34
2000-04-29	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1719	1694	37.3%	24.8%	38.0%	+5.2	50
2000-04-29	Celtic	D 1-1	1623	1866	15.7%	19.2%	65.0%	+1.5	43
2000-04-29	@ Motherwell	D 1-1	1866	1623	65.0%	19.2%	15.7%	-1.5	59
2000-04-30	Dundee	W 3-0	1951	1640	76.7%	13.8%	9.5%	+3.5	81
2000-04-30	@ Rangers	L 0-3	1640	1951	9.5%	13.8%	76.7%	-3.5	35
2000-05-02	Celtic	L 0-1	1633	1864	16.5%	19.7%	63.8%	-2.4	39
2000-05-02	@ Dundee United	W 1-0	1864	1633	63.8%	19.7%	16.5%	+2.4	62
2000-05-02	Aberdeen	W 2-1	1690	1579	56.2%	22.3%	21.6%	+3.0	40
2000-05-02	@ St. Johnstone	L 1-2	1579	1690	21.6%	22.3%	56.2%	-3.0	27
2000-05-03	Hibernian	W 5-2	1954	1626	78.1%	13.1%	8.8%	+2.4	84
2000-05-03	@ Rangers	L 2-5	1626	1954	8.8%	13.1%	78.1%	-2.4	41
2000-05-06	Aberdeen	W 5-1	1867	1576	75.0%	14.7%	10.3%	+4.3	65
2000-05-06	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1576	1867	10.3%	14.7%	75.0%	-4.3	27
2000-05-06	Dundee United	W 3-0	1637	1630	42.4%	24.6%	33.0%	+12.8	38
2000-05-06	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1630	1637	33.0%	24.6%	42.4%	-12.8	39
2000-05-06	St. Johnstone	D 0-0	1724	1693	45.8%	24.3%	29.9%	-0.5	51
2000-05-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1693	1724	29.9%	24.3%	45.8%	+0.5	41
2000-05-06	Hibernian	W 2-0	1624	1624	41.5%	24.6%	33.8%	+9.0	46
2000-05-06	@ Motherwell	L 0-2	1624	1624	33.8%	24.6%	41.5%	-9.0	41
2000-05-07	Rangers	L 0-2	1689	1957	14.2%	18.1%	67.7%	-3.9	34
2000-05-07	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1957	1689	67.7%	18.1%	14.2%	+3.9	87
2000-05-13	Motherwell	L 1-2	1618	1633	39.3%	24.7%	36.0%	-5.0	39
2000-05-13	@ Dundee United	W 2-1	1633	1618	36.0%	24.7%	39.3%	+5.0	49
2000-05-13	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1960	1723	70.0%	17.1%	12.9%	+1.8	90
2000-05-13	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1723	1960	12.9%	17.1%	70.0%	-1.9	51
2000-05-13	Celtic	D 0-0	1694	1871	20.5%	21.9%	57.6%	+1.2	42
2000-05-13	@ St. Johnstone	D 0-0	1871	1694	57.6%	21.9%	20.5%	-1.2	66
2000-05-14	Hibernian	W 1-0	1649	1615	46.3%	24.2%	29.5%	+4.3	41
2000-05-14	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1615	1649	29.5%	24.2%	46.3%	-4.3	41
2000-05-14	Kilmarnock	W 5-1	1572	1685	26.7%	23.8%	49.6%	+19.2	30
2000-05-14	@ Aberdeen	L 1-5	1685	1572	49.6%	23.8%	26.7%	-19.2	34
2000-05-21	Dundee United	W 2-0	1870	1613	71.9%	16.2%	11.9%	+3.2	69
2000-05-21	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1613	1870	11.9%	16.2%	71.9%	-3.2	39
2000-05-21	Aberdeen	L 0-2	1654	1591	50.1%	23.7%	26.3%	-12.2	41
2000-05-21	@ Dundee	W 2-0	1591	1654	26.3%	23.7%	50.1%	+12.2	33
2000-05-21	Hibernian	W 2-1	1722	1611	56.1%	22.3%	21.6%	+3.0	54
2000-05-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1611	1722	21.6%	22.3%	56.1%	-3.0	41
2000-05-21	St. Johnstone	W 3-2	1666	1695	37.3%	24.8%	37.9%	+4.7	37
2000-05-21	@ Kilmarnock	L 2-3	1695	1666	37.9%	24.8%	37.3%	-4.6	42
2000-05-21	Rangers	W 2-0	1638	1962	11.3%	15.6%	73.1%	+16.5	52
2000-05-21	@ Motherwell	L 0-2	1962	1638	73.1%	15.6%	11.3%	-16.5	90

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2000-05-21	11.27%	@ Motherwell	1638	2	Rangers	1962	0
2	1999-11-28	12.22%	Dundee	1643	2	@ Rangers	1894	1
3	2000-03-05	13.46%	@ Hibernian	1606	2	Celtic	1887	1
4	1999-10-27	13.57%	Motherwell	1649	1	@ Celtic	1874	0
5	2000-02-05	15.76%	Heart of Midlothian	1695	3	@ Celtic	1883	2
6	1999-11-28	19.01%	@ Motherwell	1674	3	Celtic	1870	2
7	1999-08-15	20.44%	@ Dundee United	1670	2	Celtic	1848	1
8	1999-12-08	21.60%	@ Aberdeen	1555	3	Heart of Midlothian	1720	1
9	1999-11-06	22.08%	Hibernian	1600	2	@ Kilmarnock	1706	0
10	2000-04-08	22.17%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1717	1	Celtic	1876	0
11	1999-12-19	22.58%	Hibernian	1608	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1708	0
12	2000-04-22	23.12%	Dundee United	1631	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1725	1
13	2000-02-23	24.54%	Aberdeen	1569	3	@ Dundee	1649	1
14	1999-08-21	24.59%	Motherwell	1647	1	@ Kilmarnock	1726	0
15	1999-09-25	24.68%	Dundee	1648	2	@ Kilmarnock	1726	0
16	1999-10-20	24.74%	Aberdeen	1566	6	@ Motherwell	1643	5
17	2000-02-05	24.84%	@ Aberdeen	1563	2	St. Johnstone	1694	1
18	2000-05-21	26.28%	Aberdeen	1591	2	@ Dundee	1654	0
19	2000-05-14	26.70%	@ Aberdeen	1572	5	Kilmarnock	1685	1
20	1999-12-27	26.80%	@ Aberdeen	1557	3	Dundee United	1669	1
21	1999-08-08	26.87%	Hibernian	1599	4	@ Dundee	1656	3
22	1999-11-06	27.14%	Dundee	1642	1	@ St. Johnstone	1697	0
23	2000-03-18	27.42%	@ Hibernian	1614	3	Heart of Midlothian	1720	1
24	1999-10-23	28.30%	Motherwell	1637	2	@ Dundee United	1682	0
25	1999-10-27	29.02%	Dundee United	1670	1	@ St. Johnstone	1709	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2000-02-22	19.56	Kilmarnock	4	1674	34.81%	@ Motherwell	0	1667	40.50%	24.69%
2	2000-02-26	19.44	@ Aberdeen	4	1580	35.12%	Hibernian	0	1625	40.17%	24.70%
3	2000-05-14	19.15	@ Aberdeen	5	1572	26.70%	Kilmarnock	1	1685	49.56%	23.75%
4	1999-12-19	19.11	Hibernian	3	1608	22.58%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1708	54.78%	22.64%
5	2000-02-05	16.57	Dundee	3	1639	29.69%	@ Motherwell	0	1672	46.05%	24.26%
6	2000-05-21	16.50	@ Motherwell	2	1638	11.27%	Rangers	0	1962	73.10%	15.62%
7	1999-09-11	15.46	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1698	45.72%	Dundee	0	1667	29.99%	24.29%
8	2000-03-26	14.71	@ Rangers	4	1925	47.72%	Celtic	0	1880	28.24%	24.04%
9	1999-07-31	13.34	Heart of Midlothian	4	1699	32.03%	@ St. Johnstone	1	1713	43.46%	24.51%
10	1999-11-06	13.29	Hibernian	2	1600	22.08%	@ Kilmarnock	0	1706	55.45%	22.46%
11	1999-08-07	13.12	Rangers	4	1844	51.89%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1713	24.81%	23.30%
12	2000-05-06	12.80	@ Dundee	3	1637	42.37%	Dundee United	0	1630	33.04%	24.59%
13	1999-09-25	12.61	Dundee	2	1648	24.68%	@ Kilmarnock	0	1726	52.06%	23.27%
14	1999-08-01	12.44	Celtic	5	1828	59.98%	@ Aberdeen	0	1631	18.91%	21.11%
15	2000-05-21	12.21	Aberdeen	2	1591	26.28%	@ Dundee	0	1654	50.06%	23.66%
16	1999-12-05	12.03	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1708	45.07%	Dundee United	0	1682	30.57%	24.37%
17	1999-10-23	11.73	Motherwell	2	1637	28.30%	@ Dundee United	0	1682	47.65%	24.05%
18	1999-12-08	11.62	@ Aberdeen	3	1555	21.60%	Heart of Midlothian	1	1720	56.11%	22.29%
19	1999-10-23	11.44	@ Hibernian	5	1584	32.55%	Dundee	2	1648	42.90%	24.56%
20	2000-04-08	11.37	@ Dundee	4	1627	40.02%	Motherwell	1	1638	35.27%	24.71%
21	2000-02-12	11.33	Motherwell	2	1656	30.08%	@ Kilmarnock	0	1685	45.62%	24.31%
22	2000-04-16	11.06	@ Motherwell	2	1626	31.30%	Kilmarnock	0	1700	44.26%	24.45%
23	2000-02-23	10.96	Aberdeen	3	1569	24.54%	@ Dundee	1	1649	52.23%	23.23%
24	1999-08-29	10.92	St. Johnstone	3	1701	48.88%	@ Aberdeen	0	1593	27.26%	23.86%
25	1999-09-19	10.54	Kilmarnock	3	1715	50.18%	@ Hibernian	0	1597	26.19%	23.64%