1963-64 Primeira Divisão Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Benfica

46 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Benfica

6.03 points above expected

46 points · 39.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Barreirense

5.86 points below expected

11 points · 16.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Benfica	26	21	4	1	46	103	26	+77	40.0	+6.03
2	Porto	26	16	8	2	40	51	20	+31	36.4	+3.57
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	26	13	8	5	34	49	26	+23	35.1	-1.10
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	16	2	8	34	62	42	+20	30.4	+3.60
5	Fabril	26	12	6	8	30	46	33	+13	27.0	+3.02
6	Os Belenenses (1st)	26	12	6	8	30	46	36	+10	31.4	-1.36
7	Vitoria Setubal	26	12	5	9	29	46	41	+5	24.7	+4.28
8	Academica de Coimbra	26	11	3	12	25	43	48	-5	23.1	+1.92
9	Leixoes	26	8	9	9	25	34	44	-10	26.2	-1.17
10	Varzim	26	8	4	14	20	37	57	-20	19.7	+0.29
11	Lusitano de Evora	26	5	4	17	14	22	51	-29	19.6	-5.56
12	Seixal	26	4	6	16	14	28	66	-38	17.4	-3.41
13	Olhanense	26	2	8	16	12	20	57	-37	16.2	-4.25
14	Barreirense	26	4	3	19	11	22	62	-40	16.9	-5.86

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Benfica	2111	46	39.97	+6.03	99.0%	30	34	37	40	42	46	51
Porto	1976	40	36.43	+3.57	89.0%	27	29	34	37	39	42	45
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1904	34	35.10	-1.10	46.0%	23	29	32	35	38	43	45
Vitoria Guimaraes	1852	34	30.40	+3.60	86.0%	20	23	28	31	33	35	38
Fabril	1793	30	26.98	+3.02	79.0%	17	20	24	27	30	33	35
Os Belenenses (1st)	1780	30	31.36	-1.36	41.0%	22	24	29	31	34	37	40
Leixoes	1721	25	26.17	-1.17	47.0%	18	20	23	26	29	32	37
Vitoria Setubal	1711	29	24.72	+4.28	84.0%	13	17	22	24	28	32	37
Academica de Coimbra	1652	25	23.08	+1.92	73.0%	12	17	20	23	26	29	31
Varzim	1603	20	19.71	+0.29	58.0%	11	13	17	20	22	26	30
Lusitano de Evora	1530	14	19.56	-5.56	10.0%	11	13	17	19	22	26	30
Olhanense	1519	12	16.25	-4.25	15.0%	6	9	13	16	20	22	23
Seixal	1517	14	17.41	-3.41	26.0%	9	12	14	17	20	23	28
Barreirense	1498	11	16.86	-5.86	11.0%	7	10	14	17	20	23	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	BAR	BEN	FAB	LEI	LDE	OLH	OB(	POR	SEI	SCDP	VAR	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	2-0-0 3.67	0-0-2 0.92	1-0-1 2.33	0-1-1 2.52	1-0-1 3.23	1-1-0 3.51	2-0-0 1.64	0-1-1 1.28	2-0-0 3.20	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 3.13	0-0-2 2.23	1-0-1 2.73
Barreirense	0-0-2 1.92	—	0-0-2 0.73	0-0-2 1.40	0-0-2 1.85	1-0-1 2.47	1-1-0 2.64	0-1-1 1.14	0-0-2 0.99	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 0.75	0-0-2 2.41	0-0-2 1.31	0-0-2 2.11
Benfica	2-0-0 4.72	2-0-0 4.95	—	2-0-0 4.25	2-0-0 4.63	2-0-0 5.01	2-0-0 4.70	1-1-0 3.63	0-2-0 3.39	2-0-0 4.81	0-1-1 3.63	2-0-0 4.88	2-0-0 4.15	2-0-0 4.47
Fabril	1-0-1 3.25	2-0-0 4.20	0-0-2 1.37	—	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 3.62	1-1-0 4.14	0-2-0 2.02	1-0-1 1.48	2-0-0 4.07	1-1-0 1.48	1-1-0 3.69	1-0-1 2.14	0-1-1 3.21
Leixoes	1-1-0 3.06	2-0-0 3.74	0-0-2 0.99	1-0-1 2.64	—	1-1-0 3.56	0-2-0 3.99	0-0-2 2.31	0-1-1 1.93	0-2-0 4.08	0-1-1 1.71	1-1-0 3.50	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 2.96
Lusitano de Evora	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 3.11	0-0-2 0.65	1-0-1 1.97	0-1-1 2.02	—	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-2 1.04	0-2-0 3.01	0-1-1 1.00	0-0-2 2.84	0-0-2 1.94	1-0-1 2.09
Olhanense	0-1-1 2.06	0-1-1 2.95	0-0-2 0.97	0-1-1 1.46	0-2-0 1.61	1-0-1 2.41	—	0-0-2 1.05	0-1-1 0.74	0-0-2 2.86	0-1-1 1.04	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 1.07	0-1-1 1.60
Os Belenenses (1st)	0-0-2 3.95	1-1-0 4.48	0-1-1 1.97	0-2-0 3.57	2-0-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.97	2-0-0 4.58	—	0-1-1 1.98	1-0-1 4.53	1-0-1 1.92	2-0-0 4.18	0-0-2 2.76	1-1-0 3.69
Porto	1-1-0 4.32	2-0-0 4.67	0-2-0 2.19	1-0-1 4.12	1-1-0 3.66	2-0-0 4.61	1-1-0 4.90	1-1-0 3.60	—	2-0-0 4.77	1-1-0 2.95	2-0-0 4.42	1-1-0 3.48	1-0-1 4.13
Seixal	0-0-2 2.38	0-1-1 2.88	0-0-2 0.85	0-0-2 1.52	0-2-0 1.52	0-2-0 2.57	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 1.09	0-0-2 0.88	—	0-0-2 0.93	1-0-1 2.23	0-0-2 1.05	0-1-1 1.67
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.05	1-0-1 4.90	1-1-0 1.96	0-1-1 4.12	1-1-0 3.87	1-1-0 4.62	1-1-0 4.60	1-0-1 3.66	0-1-1 2.62	2-0-0 4.69	—	1-1-0 4.45	1-1-0 3.44	1-0-1 4.09
Varzim	1-0-1 2.45	2-0-0 3.17	0-0-2 0.78	0-1-1 1.90	0-1-1 2.09	2-0-0 2.75	2-0-0 3.22	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 1.20	1-0-1 3.35	0-1-1 1.17	—	0-0-2 1.54	0-1-1 2.10
Vitoria Guimaraes	2-0-0 3.36	2-0-0 4.32	0-0-2 1.45	1-0-1 3.44	1-0-1 3.21	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 4.55	2-0-0 2.83	0-1-1 2.10	2-0-0 4.58	0-1-1 2.14	2-0-0 4.06	—	1-0-1 3.53
Vitoria Setubal	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.48	0-0-2 1.15	1-1-0 2.37	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 3.49	1-1-0 4.00	0-1-1 1.90	1-0-1 1.47	1-1-0 3.93	1-0-1 1.50	1-1-0 3.48	1-0-1 2.06	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.95%	5.49%	4.12%	4.95%	1.65%	1.92%	23.08%
1	5.49%	9.89%	9.07%	3.57%	2.20%	1.65%	31.87%
2	4.12%	9.07%	5.49%	1.10%	1.10%	1.92%	22.80%
3	4.95%	3.57%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	—	10.71%
4	1.65%	2.20%	1.10%	0.55%	—	0.27%	5.77%
5+	1.92%	1.65%	1.92%	—	0.27%	—	5.77%
Total	23.08%	31.87%	22.80%	10.71%	5.77%	5.77%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.59
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	3.35
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.166
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	11.54%	3.85%	—	19.23%
1	7.69%	7.69%	11.54%	—	3.85%	3.85%	34.62%
2	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	26.92%
3	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
4	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	26.92%	23.08%	15.38%	19.23%	7.69%	7.69%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.65
Mean allowed	1.85
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.69
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.255
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	15.38%	—	7.69%	50.00%
1	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	30.77%
2	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	7.69%
3	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	7.69%
4	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	26.92%	15.38%	26.92%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Barreirense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.85
Mean allowed	2.38
StdDev scored	1.12
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	3.23
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.105
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
2	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
3	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	11.54%
5+	15.38%	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	34.62%
Total	34.62%	34.62%	26.92%	3.85%	—	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.96
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	2.47
StdDev allowed	0.89
Mean total goals/game	4.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.344
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	19.23%
1	7.69%	7.69%	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	34.62%
2	11.54%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	26.92%
3	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	30.77%	26.92%	30.77%	7.69%	3.85%	—	100%

Fabril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	1.27
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	1.12
Mean total goals/game	3.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.052
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	26.92%
1	11.54%	15.38%	7.69%	—	3.85%	7.69%	46.15%
2	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
3	—	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	26.92%	30.77%	23.08%	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	100%

Leixoes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.31
Mean allowed	1.69
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.81
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.137
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	—	38.46%
1	7.69%	7.69%	15.38%	3.85%	3.85%	—	38.46%
2	—	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	23.08%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.69%	30.77%	34.62%	15.38%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Lusitano de Evora — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.85
Mean allowed	1.96
StdDev scored	0.78
StdDev allowed	1.22
Mean total goals/game	2.81
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.090
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	34.62%
1	3.85%	19.23%	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	53.85%
2	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	30.77%	19.23%	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.77
Mean allowed	2.19
StdDev scored	0.65
StdDev allowed	1.92
Mean total goals/game	2.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.165
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
1	3.85%	11.54%	11.54%	—	—	—	26.92%
2	3.85%	15.38%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	34.62%
3	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
4	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.23%	42.31%	26.92%	7.69%	—	3.85%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	1.38
StdDev scored	1.21
StdDev allowed	1.13
Mean total goals/game	3.15
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.108
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
1	11.54%	19.23%	3.85%	—	—	—	34.62%
2	—	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
3	19.23%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	34.62%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	38.46%	46.15%	15.38%	—	—	—	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.96
Mean allowed	0.77
StdDev scored	1.18
StdDev allowed	0.71
Mean total goals/game	2.73
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.154
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	30.77%
1	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	—	3.85%	34.62%
2	—	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	30.77%
3	—	—	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	26.92%	23.08%	15.38%	11.54%	11.54%	100%

Seixal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.08
Mean allowed	2.54
StdDev scored	0.89
StdDev allowed	2.30
Mean total goals/game	3.62
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.038
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
1	3.85%	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	26.92%
2	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	23.08%
3	3.85%	11.54%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	34.62%	46.15%	11.54%	—	7.69%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.88
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	1.51
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	2.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.170
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	15.38%	7.69%	—	3.85%	30.77%
1	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	—	34.62%
2	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	15.38%
3	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
4	—	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
5+	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	15.38%	23.08%	26.92%	19.23%	3.85%	11.54%	100%

Varzim — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.42
Mean allowed	2.19
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	3.62
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.061
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
1	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	—	26.92%
2	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
3	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
4	7.69%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
5+	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	15.38%
Total	23.08%	26.92%	30.77%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.38
Mean allowed	1.62
StdDev scored	1.68
StdDev allowed	1.36
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.091
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	19.23%
1	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
2	3.85%	23.08%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	50.00%
3	11.54%	—	—	—	—	—	11.54%
4	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.92%	30.77%	19.23%	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	1.58
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	3.35
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.432
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Benfica	46	40.0	+6.03
2	Vitoria Setubal	29	24.7	+4.28
3	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	30.4	+3.60
4	Porto	40	36.4	+3.57
5	Fabril	30	27.0	+3.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Barreirense	11	16.9	-5.86
2	Lusitano de Evora	14	19.6	-5.56
3	Olhanense	12	16.2	-4.25
4	Seixal	14	17.4	-3.41
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	30	31.4	-1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Seixal	2	Mar 22 – Apr 5	1 in 42
2	Vitoria Setubal	3	Oct 27 – Nov 10	1 in 22
3	Benfica	9	Dec 22 – Feb 16	1 in 21
4	Lusitano de Evora	2	Dec 8 – Dec 15	1 in 12
5	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	Dec 8 – Dec 29	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Olhanense	9	Oct 20 – Dec 15	1 in 278
2	Seixal	3	Nov 17 – Dec 1	1 in 29
3	Lusitano de Evora	5	Mar 1 – Apr 5	1 in 17
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	2	Mar 1 – Mar 8	1 in 12
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	Jan 5 – Jan 12	1 in 9

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fabril	7	Jan 12 – Feb 23	1 in 55
2	Leixoes	7	Feb 16 – Apr 5	1 in 24
3	Academica de Coimbra	4	Nov 17 – Dec 8	1 in 18
4	Olhanense	3	Feb 2 – Feb 16	1 in 17
5	Sporting Clube de Portugal	11	Jan 12 – Mar 22	1 in 15

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Olhanense	19	Oct 20 – Feb 23	1 in 190
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	6	Mar 1 – Apr 12	1 in 68
3	Lusitano de Evora	13	Jan 5 – Apr 5	1 in 31
4	Barreirense	11	Jan 12 – Mar 22	1 in 31
5	Seixal	12	Oct 27 – Jan 12	1 in 27

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Benfica	65.00%	23.00%	7.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Porto	18.00%	44.00%	23.00%	6.00%	5.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	15.00%	22.00%	27.00%	19.00%	11.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	3.00%	21.00%	24.00%	18.00%	17.00%	7.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Fabril	—	—	2.00%	11.00%	19.00%	20.00%	19.00%	12.00%	7.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	1.00%	8.00%	17.00%	31.00%	16.00%	16.00%	7.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Vitoria Setubal	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	12.00%	10.00%	22.00%	15.00%	11.00%	13.00%	7.00%	4.00%	1.00%	2.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	—	—	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	22.00%	22.00%	18.00%	9.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Leixoes	1.00%	—	2.00%	3.00%	12.00%	17.00%	15.00%	23.00%	13.00%	7.00%	7.00%	—	—	—
Varzim	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	9.00%	12.00%	18.00%	14.00%	14.00%	18.00%	7.00%
Lusitano de Evora	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	7.00%	6.00%	13.00%	12.00%	16.00%	26.00%	12.00%	6.00%
Seixal	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.00%	2.00%	5.00%	11.00%	14.00%	15.00%	26.00%	23.00%
Olhanense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	6.00%	6.00%	17.00%	16.00%	18.00%	35.00%
Barreirense	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	15.00%	19.00%	22.00%	26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Benfica	100%	—
Leixoes	100%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%	—
Porto	100%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	100%	—
Fabril	99.0%	1.0%
Academica de Coimbra	97.0%	3.0%
Vitoria Setubal	97.0%	3.0%
Lusitano de Evora	82.0%	18.0%
Varzim	75.0%	25.0%
Barreirense	52.0%	48.0%
Seixal	51.0%	49.0%
Olhanense	47.0%	53.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1963-10-20	Varzim	W 2-0	1661	1605	62.6%	20.8%	16.7%	+12.1	3
1963-10-20	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-2	1605	1661	16.7%	20.8%	62.6%	-12.1	0
1963-10-20	Leixoes	L 1-3	1603	1759	37.1%	21.2%	41.6%	-20.5	0
1963-10-20	@ Barreirense	W 3-1	1759	1603	41.6%	21.2%	37.1%	+20.5	3
1963-10-20	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1824	1663	70.3%	19.7%	10.0%	+10.8	3
1963-10-20	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1663	1824	10.0%	19.7%	70.3%	-10.8	0
1963-10-20	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-2	1946	1610	78.8%	17.1%	4.1%	+3.2	3
1963-10-20	@ Benfica	L 2-5	1610	1946	4.1%	17.1%	78.8%	-3.2	0
1963-10-20	Fabril	W 3-1	1892	1699	72.2%	19.3%	8.4%	+5.5	3
1963-10-20	@ Porto	L 1-3	1699	1892	8.4%	19.3%	72.2%	-5.5	0
1963-10-20	Olhanense	W 2-1	1605	1653	51.7%	21.3%	27.0%	+9.2	3
1963-10-20	@ Seixal	L 1-2	1653	1605	27.0%	21.3%	51.7%	-9.2	0
1963-10-20	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1754	1894	39.5%	21.3%	39.2%	-0.0	1
1963-10-20	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1894	1754	39.2%	21.3%	39.5%	+0.0	1
1963-10-27	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1693	1834	39.3%	21.2%	39.4%	+0.0	1
1963-10-27	@ Fabril	D 2-2	1834	1693	39.4%	21.2%	39.3%	-0.0	4
1963-10-27	Porto	D 1-1	1780	1897	42.6%	21.3%	36.1%	-0.5	4
1963-10-27	@ Leixoes	D 1-1	1897	1780	36.1%	21.3%	42.6%	+0.5	4
1963-10-27	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-5	1652	1754	44.7%	21.3%	34.0%	-29.2	0
1963-10-27	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 5-2	1754	1652	34.0%	21.3%	44.7%	+29.2	4
1963-10-27	Benfica	L 0-3	1643	1949	19.8%	20.2%	60.0%	-20.1	0
1963-10-27	@ Olhanense	W 3-0	1949	1643	60.0%	20.2%	19.8%	+20.1	6
1963-10-27	Seixal	W 4-0	1894	1614	76.5%	18.1%	5.4%	+7.7	4
1963-10-27	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1614	1894	5.4%	18.1%	76.5%	-7.7	3
1963-10-27	Barreirense	W 4-1	1593	1582	58.2%	21.0%	20.7%	+17.9	3
1963-10-27	@ Varzim	L 1-4	1582	1593	20.7%	21.0%	58.2%	-17.9	0
1963-10-27	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-0	1607	1674	49.4%	21.3%	29.3%	+37.2	3
1963-10-27	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-4	1674	1607	29.3%	21.3%	49.4%	-37.2	3
1963-11-03	Olhanense	W 3-1	1636	1623	58.5%	21.0%	20.5%	+12.6	6
1963-11-03	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-3	1623	1636	20.5%	21.0%	58.5%	-12.6	0
1963-11-03	Vitoria Setubal	L 0-3	1564	1644	47.7%	21.3%	31.0%	-42.3	0
1963-11-03	@ Barreirense	W 3-0	1644	1564	31.0%	21.3%	47.7%	+42.3	6
1963-11-03	Leixoes	W 4-1	1834	1779	62.4%	20.8%	16.8%	+14.9	7
1963-11-03	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-4	1779	1834	16.8%	20.8%	62.4%	-14.9	4
1963-11-03	Varzim	W 3-0	1898	1611	76.8%	18.0%	5.2%	+5.7	7
1963-11-03	@ Porto	L 0-3	1611	1898	5.2%	18.0%	76.8%	-5.7	3
1963-11-03	Benfica	L 2-3	1607	1969	15.1%	19.6%	65.3%	-5.1	3
1963-11-03	@ Seixal	W 3-2	1969	1607	65.3%	19.6%	15.1%	+5.1	9
1963-11-03	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-1	1902	1623	76.4%	18.1%	5.5%	+5.0	7
1963-11-03	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1623	1902	5.5%	18.1%	76.4%	-5.0	0
1963-11-03	Fabril	W 4-0	1784	1693	65.4%	20.5%	14.1%	+19.7	7
1963-11-03	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-4	1693	1784	14.1%	20.5%	65.4%	-19.7	1
1963-11-10	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-0	1975	1649	78.4%	17.3%	4.3%	+4.6	12
1963-11-10	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1649	1975	4.3%	17.3%	78.4%	-4.6	6
1963-11-10	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-0	1673	1907	27.3%	20.8%	51.9%	+59.4	4
1963-11-10	@ Fabril	L 0-4	1907	1673	51.9%	20.8%	27.3%	-59.4	7
1963-11-10	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1765	1803	52.8%	21.2%	26.0%	+9.4	7
1963-11-10	@ Leixoes	L 0-1	1803	1765	26.0%	21.2%	52.8%	-9.4	7
1963-11-10	Seixal	D 1-1	1618	1601	58.8%	21.0%	20.2%	-2.9	1
1963-11-10	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 1-1	1601	1618	20.2%	21.0%	58.8%	+2.9	4
1963-11-10	Barreirense	L 1-4	1611	1522	65.3%	20.5%	14.2%	-48.0	0
1963-11-10	@ Olhanense	W 4-1	1522	1611	14.2%	20.5%	65.3%	+48.0	3
1963-11-10	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1605	1849	26.1%	20.8%	53.2%	-15.3	3
1963-11-10	@ Varzim	W 3-1	1849	1605	53.2%	20.8%	26.1%	+15.3	10
1963-11-10	Porto	W 2-1	1687	1904	29.2%	20.9%	49.8%	+15.1	9
1963-11-10	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1904	1687	49.8%	20.9%	29.2%	-15.1	7
1963-11-17	Benfica	L 2-4	1570	1979	12.1%	18.9%	69.0%	-6.8	3
1963-11-17	@ Barreirense	W 4-2	1979	1570	69.0%	18.9%	12.1%	+6.8	15
1963-11-17	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1864	1702	70.4%	19.7%	9.9%	+10.7	13
1963-11-17	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1702	1864	9.9%	19.7%	70.4%	-10.7	9
1963-11-17	Fabril	W 1-0	1615	1733	42.6%	21.3%	36.1%	+12.3	4
1963-11-17	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-1	1733	1615	36.1%	21.3%	42.6%	-12.3	4
1963-11-17	Olhanense	W 3-0	1888	1563	78.4%	17.3%	4.3%	+4.6	10
1963-11-17	@ Porto	L 0-3	1563	1888	4.3%	17.3%	78.4%	-4.6	0
1963-11-17	Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1604	1644	52.6%	21.2%	26.1%	-16.9	4
1963-11-17	@ Seixal	W 1-0	1644	1604	26.1%	21.2%	52.6%	+16.9	9
1963-11-17	Leixoes	W 5-1	1847	1774	64.0%	20.6%	15.3%	+17.7	10
1963-11-17	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1774	1847	15.3%	20.6%	64.0%	-17.7	7
1963-11-17	Varzim	W 5-2	1794	1590	72.8%	19.2%	8.0%	+6.4	10
1963-11-17	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-5	1590	1794	8.0%	19.2%	72.8%	-6.4	3
1963-11-24	Barreirense	W 3-0	1661	1563	66.0%	20.4%	13.6%	+14.6	12
1963-11-24	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-3	1563	1661	13.6%	20.4%	66.0%	-14.6	3
1963-11-24	Porto	D 2-2	1986	1893	65.6%	20.4%	14.0%	-3.0	16
1963-11-24	@ Benfica	D 2-2	1893	1986	14.0%	20.4%	65.6%	+3.0	11
1963-11-24	Seixal	W 6-2	1720	1587	68.5%	20.1%	11.4%	+11.4	7
1963-11-24	@ Fabril	L 2-6	1587	1720	11.4%	20.1%	68.5%	-11.4	4
1963-11-24	Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1756	1627	68.2%	20.1%	11.7%	+4.6	10
1963-11-24	@ Leixoes	L 0-1	1627	1756	11.7%	20.1%	68.2%	-4.6	4
1963-11-24	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1558	1875	18.8%	20.1%	61.1%	-7.0	0
1963-11-24	@ Olhanense	W 1-0	1875	1558	61.1%	20.1%	18.8%	+7.0	16
1963-11-24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1584	1865	22.1%	20.4%	57.5%	+2.6	4
1963-11-24	@ Varzim	D 1-1	1865	1584	57.5%	20.4%	22.1%	-2.6	11
1963-11-24	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1691	1800	43.8%	21.3%	34.9%	+11.3	12
1963-11-24	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1800	1691	34.9%	21.3%	43.8%	-11.3	10
1963-12-01	Benfica	D 1-1	1882	1983	45.0%	21.3%	33.7%	-0.8	17
1963-12-01	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1983	1882	33.7%	21.3%	45.0%	+0.8	17
1963-12-01	Leixoes	W 2-0	1732	1761	53.9%	21.2%	24.9%	+17.1	10
1963-12-01	@ Fabril	L 0-2	1761	1732	24.9%	21.2%	53.9%	-17.1	10
1963-12-01	Varzim	L 0-1	1622	1586	60.7%	20.9%	18.4%	-19.3	4
1963-12-01	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1586	1622	18.4%	20.9%	60.7%	+19.3	7
1963-12-01	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1896	1676	73.7%	19.0%	7.4%	-5.3	12
1963-12-01	@ Porto	D 1-1	1676	1896	7.4%	19.0%	73.7%	+5.3	13
1963-12-01	Barreirense	L 1-3	1576	1549	59.9%	20.9%	19.2%	-31.2	4
1963-12-01	@ Seixal	W 3-1	1549	1576	19.2%	20.9%	59.9%	+31.2	6
1963-12-01	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1863	1702	70.3%	19.8%	10.0%	-21.1	11
1963-12-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1702	1863	10.0%	19.8%	70.3%	+21.1	15
1963-12-01	Olhanense	W 5-1	1789	1551	74.5%	18.7%	6.7%	+8.0	13
1963-12-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-5	1551	1789	6.7%	18.7%	74.5%	-8.0	0
1963-12-08	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 1-0	1681	1881	31.3%	21.0%	47.7%	+15.4	16
1963-12-08	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1881	1681	47.7%	21.0%	31.3%	-15.4	17
1963-12-08	Porto	L 1-3	1580	1891	19.3%	20.2%	60.6%	-11.7	6
1963-12-08	@ Barreirense	W 3-1	1891	1580	60.6%	20.2%	19.3%	+11.7	15
1963-12-08	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1984	1797	71.8%	19.4%	8.7%	+3.3	20
1963-12-08	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1797	1984	8.7%	19.4%	71.8%	-3.3	13
1963-12-08	Seixal	D 0-0	1744	1545	72.5%	19.3%	8.2%	-5.7	11
1963-12-08	@ Leixoes	D 0-0	1545	1744	8.2%	19.3%	72.5%	+5.7	5
1963-12-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1543	1841	20.4%	20.3%	59.3%	-14.3	0
1963-12-08	@ Olhanense	W 2-0	1841	1543	59.3%	20.3%	20.4%	+14.3	14
1963-12-08	Fabril	D 1-1	1606	1749	39.0%	21.2%	39.8%	+0.0	8
1963-12-08	@ Varzim	D 1-1	1749	1606	39.8%	21.2%	39.0%	-0.0	11
1963-12-08	Lusitano de Evora	L 1-2	1723	1603	67.6%	20.2%	12.2%	-20.3	15
1963-12-08	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1603	1723	12.2%	20.2%	67.6%	+20.3	7
1963-12-15	Barreirense	W 2-0	1866	1568	77.2%	17.8%	5.0%	+3.7	20
1963-12-15	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1568	1866	5.0%	17.8%	77.2%	-3.7	6
1963-12-15	Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1749	1703	61.6%	20.8%	17.6%	-2.5	12
1963-12-15	@ Fabril	D 2-2	1703	1749	17.6%	20.8%	61.6%	+2.5	16
1963-12-15	Varzim	W 3-1	1738	1606	68.5%	20.1%	11.5%	+7.4	14
1963-12-15	@ Leixoes	L 1-3	1606	1738	11.5%	20.1%	68.5%	-7.4	8
1963-12-15	Olhanense	W 2-1	1623	1529	65.7%	20.4%	13.9%	+5.1	10
1963-12-15	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-2	1529	1623	13.9%	20.4%	65.7%	-5.1	0
1963-12-15	Porto	L 0-1	1551	1903	15.9%	19.7%	64.4%	-6.0	5
1963-12-15	@ Seixal	W 1-0	1903	1551	64.4%	19.7%	15.9%	+6.0	18
1963-12-15	Benfica	W 3-1	1856	1987	40.7%	21.3%	38.0%	+20.9	17
1963-12-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1987	1856	38.0%	21.3%	40.7%	-20.9	20
1963-12-15	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1794	1696	65.9%	20.4%	13.7%	+5.0	16
1963-12-15	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1696	1794	13.7%	20.4%	65.9%	-5.0	16
1963-12-22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1691	1877	33.3%	21.1%	45.6%	-31.5	16
1963-12-22	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-0	1877	1691	45.6%	21.1%	33.3%	+31.5	20
1963-12-22	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-1	1564	1799	27.2%	20.8%	52.0%	-9.7	6
1963-12-22	@ Barreirense	W 1-0	1799	1564	52.0%	20.8%	27.2%	+9.7	19
1963-12-22	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-0	1966	1629	78.8%	17.1%	4.1%	+3.0	23
1963-12-22	@ Benfica	L 0-2	1629	1966	4.1%	17.1%	78.8%	-3.0	10
1963-12-22	Fabril	D 0-0	1524	1746	28.5%	20.9%	50.6%	+1.8	1
1963-12-22	@ Olhanense	D 0-0	1746	1524	50.6%	20.9%	28.5%	-1.8	13
1963-12-22	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-2	1909	1870	61.0%	20.9%	18.1%	+6.2	21
1963-12-22	@ Porto	L 2-3	1870	1909	18.1%	20.9%	61.0%	-6.2	20
1963-12-22	Seixal	W 2-1	1598	1545	62.3%	20.8%	16.9%	+6.1	11
1963-12-22	@ Varzim	L 1-2	1545	1598	16.9%	20.8%	62.3%	-6.1	5
1963-12-22	Leixoes	W 2-0	1706	1745	52.7%	21.2%	26.1%	+17.8	19
1963-12-22	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1745	1706	26.1%	21.2%	52.7%	-17.8	14
1963-12-29	Benfica	L 0-3	1745	1969	28.3%	20.9%	50.8%	-27.5	13
1963-12-29	@ Fabril	W 3-0	1969	1745	50.8%	20.9%	28.3%	+27.5	26
1963-12-29	Olhanense	D 1-1	1728	1526	72.7%	19.2%	8.1%	-5.1	15
1963-12-29	@ Leixoes	D 1-1	1526	1728	8.1%	19.2%	72.7%	+5.1	2
1963-12-29	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1626	1660	53.3%	21.2%	25.5%	+8.7	13
1963-12-29	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-2	1660	1626	25.5%	21.2%	53.3%	-8.7	16
1963-12-29	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1538	1864	18.1%	20.0%	61.9%	-6.4	5
1963-12-29	@ Seixal	W 2-1	1864	1538	61.9%	20.0%	18.1%	+6.4	23
1963-12-29	Barreirense	W 3-1	1908	1555	79.4%	16.8%	3.8%	+2.4	23
1963-12-29	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1555	1908	3.8%	16.8%	79.4%	-2.4	6
1963-12-29	Vitoria Setubal	D 0-0	1604	1723	42.4%	21.3%	36.3%	-0.5	12
1963-12-29	@ Varzim	D 0-0	1723	1604	36.3%	21.3%	42.4%	+0.5	20
1963-12-29	Porto	D 2-2	1808	1915	44.2%	21.3%	34.5%	-0.5	20
1963-12-29	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1915	1808	34.5%	21.3%	44.2%	+0.5	22
1964-01-05	Fabril	W 2-1	1651	1717	49.5%	21.3%	29.2%	+9.8	19
1964-01-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1717	1651	29.2%	21.3%	49.5%	-9.8	13
1964-01-05	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1552	1634	47.4%	21.3%	31.3%	+10.3	9
1964-01-05	@ Barreirense	L 1-2	1634	1552	31.3%	21.3%	47.4%	-10.3	13
1964-01-05	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1870	1808	63.0%	20.7%	16.2%	-55.0	23
1964-01-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-0	1808	1870	16.2%	20.7%	63.0%	+55.0	23
1964-01-05	Leixoes	W 7-0	1997	1722	76.2%	18.2%	5.6%	+13.4	29
1964-01-05	@ Benfica	L 0-7	1722	1997	5.6%	18.2%	76.2%	-13.4	15
1964-01-05	Varzim	L 0-1	1531	1604	48.6%	21.3%	30.1%	-15.7	2
1964-01-05	@ Olhanense	W 1-0	1604	1531	30.1%	21.3%	48.6%	+15.7	15
1964-01-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1915	1910	57.6%	21.1%	21.3%	+7.5	25
1964-01-05	@ Porto	L 1-2	1910	1915	21.3%	21.1%	57.6%	-7.5	23
1964-01-05	Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1532	1724	32.4%	21.1%	46.5%	+0.7	6
1964-01-05	@ Seixal	D 2-2	1724	1532	46.5%	21.1%	32.4%	-0.7	21
1964-01-12	Barreirense	W 2-1	1707	1563	69.3%	19.9%	10.8%	+4.0	16
1964-01-12	@ Fabril	L 1-2	1563	1707	10.8%	19.9%	69.3%	-4.0	9
1964-01-12	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1709	1661	61.8%	20.8%	17.4%	-3.4	16
1964-01-12	@ Leixoes	D 1-1	1661	1709	17.4%	20.8%	61.8%	+3.4	20
1964-01-12	Porto	L 0-3	1624	1923	20.4%	20.3%	59.3%	-20.7	13
1964-01-12	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1923	1624	59.3%	20.3%	20.4%	+20.7	28
1964-01-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1903	1815	65.2%	20.5%	14.3%	+5.2	26
1964-01-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1815	1903	14.3%	20.5%	65.2%	-5.2	23
1964-01-12	Benfica	L 0-2	1620	2010	13.2%	19.2%	67.5%	-9.5	15
1964-01-12	@ Varzim	W 2-0	2010	1620	67.5%	19.2%	13.2%	+9.5	32
1964-01-12	Seixal	W 4-2	1863	1533	78.5%	17.2%	4.2%	+2.4	26
1964-01-12	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-4	1533	1863	4.2%	17.2%	78.5%	-2.4	6
1964-01-12	Olhanense	W 4-0	1723	1515	73.0%	19.1%	7.8%	+11.1	24
1964-01-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-4	1515	1723	7.8%	19.1%	73.0%	-11.1	2
1964-01-19	Porto	W 1-0	1711	1943	27.4%	20.8%	51.7%	+16.5	19
1964-01-19	@ Fabril	L 0-1	1943	1711	51.7%	20.8%	27.4%	-16.5	28
1964-01-19	Barreirense	W 6-0	1706	1559	69.4%	19.9%	10.7%	+22.1	19
1964-01-19	@ Leixoes	L 0-6	1559	1706	10.7%	19.9%	69.4%	-22.1	9
1964-01-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1603	1810	30.5%	21.0%	48.5%	-10.1	13
1964-01-19	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1810	1603	48.5%	21.0%	30.5%	+10.1	26
1964-01-19	Seixal	L 0-1	1504	1530	54.2%	21.2%	24.6%	-17.4	2
1964-01-19	@ Olhanense	W 1-0	1530	1504	24.6%	21.2%	54.2%	+17.3	9
1964-01-19	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-0	1908	1865	61.4%	20.8%	17.8%	+29.9	29
1964-01-19	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-5	1865	1908	17.8%	20.8%	61.4%	-29.9	26
1964-01-19	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1610	1664	50.9%	21.3%	27.8%	+23.0	18
1964-01-19	@ Varzim	L 1-4	1664	1610	27.8%	21.3%	50.9%	-23.0	20
1964-01-19	Benfica	L 2-4	1734	2020	21.7%	20.4%	57.9%	-11.7	24
1964-01-19	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 4-2	2020	1734	57.9%	20.4%	21.7%	+11.7	35
1964-01-26	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1641	1723	47.5%	21.3%	31.2%	+20.6	23
1964-01-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-2	1723	1641	31.2%	21.3%	47.5%	-20.6	24
1964-01-26	Varzim	L 1-2	1537	1633	45.5%	21.3%	33.2%	-14.0	9
1964-01-26	@ Barreirense	W 2-1	1633	1537	33.2%	21.3%	45.5%	+14.0	21
1964-01-26	Fabril	D 1-1	1820	1728	65.5%	20.5%	14.0%	-4.0	27
1964-01-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1728	1820	14.0%	20.5%	65.5%	+4.0	20
1964-01-26	Olhanense	W 8-1	2031	1487	85.4%	13.2%	1.4%	+2.5	38
1964-01-26	@ Benfica	L 1-8	1487	2031	1.4%	13.2%	85.4%	-2.5	2
1964-01-26	Leixoes	W 1-0	1927	1728	72.5%	19.3%	8.2%	+3.3	31
1964-01-26	@ Porto	L 0-1	1728	1927	8.2%	19.3%	72.5%	-3.3	19
1964-01-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1548	1938	13.2%	19.2%	67.5%	-4.8	9
1964-01-26	@ Seixal	W 2-1	1938	1548	67.5%	19.2%	13.2%	+4.8	32
1964-01-26	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-0	1835	1593	74.8%	18.6%	6.6%	+9.3	29
1964-01-26	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-4	1593	1835	6.6%	18.6%	74.8%	-9.4	13
1964-02-02	Seixal	W 10-0	2034	1543	83.9%	14.2%	1.9%	+5.8	41
1964-02-02	@ Benfica	L 0-10	1543	2034	1.9%	14.2%	83.9%	-5.8	9
1964-02-02	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1732	1845	43.3%	21.3%	35.4%	+19.8	23
1964-02-02	@ Fabril	L 1-3	1845	1732	35.4%	21.3%	43.3%	-19.8	29
1964-02-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1725	1816	46.2%	21.3%	32.5%	-14.2	19
1964-02-02	@ Leixoes	W 2-1	1816	1725	32.5%	21.3%	46.2%	+14.2	30
1964-02-02	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1584	1943	15.4%	19.6%	65.0%	+3.8	14
1964-02-02	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 1-1	1943	1584	65.0%	19.6%	15.4%	-3.8	33
1964-02-02	Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1484	1662	34.2%	21.1%	44.6%	+0.5	3
1964-02-02	@ Olhanense	D 2-2	1662	1484	44.6%	21.1%	34.2%	-0.5	24
1964-02-02	Porto	L 0-3	1647	1930	21.9%	20.4%	57.7%	-22.1	21
1964-02-02	@ Varzim	W 3-0	1930	1647	57.7%	20.4%	21.9%	+22.1	34
1964-02-02	Barreirense	W 3-0	1702	1523	71.4%	19.5%	9.1%	+9.9	27
1964-02-02	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-3	1523	1702	9.1%	19.5%	71.4%	-9.9	9
1964-02-09	Benfica	L 1-5	1661	2039	14.1%	19.4%	66.6%	-16.0	24
1964-02-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 5-1	2039	1661	66.6%	19.4%	14.1%	+16.0	44
1964-02-09	Olhanense	D 0-0	1513	1485	60.0%	20.9%	19.1%	-3.4	10
1964-02-09	@ Barreirense	D 0-0	1485	1513	19.1%	20.9%	60.0%	+3.4	4
1964-02-09	Varzim	W 4-1	1830	1625	72.9%	19.2%	8.0%	+7.3	33
1964-02-09	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-4	1625	1830	8.0%	19.2%	72.9%	-7.3	21
1964-02-09	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-0	1952	1712	74.7%	18.7%	6.7%	+11.6	37
1964-02-09	@ Porto	L 0-5	1712	1952	6.7%	18.7%	74.7%	-11.7	27
1964-02-09	Lusitano de Evora	D 2-2	1537	1588	51.4%	21.3%	27.3%	-1.3	10
1964-02-09	@ Seixal	D 2-2	1588	1537	27.3%	21.3%	51.4%	+1.3	15
1964-02-09	Fabril	D 0-0	1939	1752	71.9%	19.4%	8.7%	-5.6	34
1964-02-09	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1752	1939	8.7%	19.4%	71.9%	+5.6	24
1964-02-09	Leixoes	W 2-1	1825	1710	67.2%	20.2%	12.5%	+4.6	32
1964-02-09	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1710	1825	12.5%	20.2%	67.2%	-4.6	19
1964-02-16	Seixal	W 7-1	1646	1536	66.8%	20.3%	12.8%	+21.8	27
1964-02-16	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-7	1536	1646	12.8%	20.3%	66.8%	-21.8	10
1964-02-16	Barreirense	W 8-0	2055	1509	85.5%	13.1%	1.4%	+3.4	47
1964-02-16	@ Benfica	L 0-8	1509	2055	1.4%	13.1%	85.5%	-3.4	10
1964-02-16	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1757	1589	70.8%	19.7%	9.6%	+3.6	27
1964-02-16	@ Fabril	L 1-2	1589	1757	9.6%	19.7%	70.8%	-3.6	15
1964-02-16	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1706	1934	27.9%	20.9%	51.2%	+1.9	20
1964-02-16	@ Leixoes	D 0-0	1934	1706	51.2%	20.9%	27.9%	-1.9	35
1964-02-16	Porto	D 1-1	1488	1964	8.7%	17.9%	73.4%	+5.1	5
1964-02-16	@ Olhanense	D 1-1	1964	1488	73.4%	17.9%	8.7%	-5.1	38
1964-02-16	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 4-5	1618	1830	29.8%	21.0%	49.2%	-9.0	21
1964-02-16	@ Varzim	W 5-4	1830	1618	49.2%	21.0%	29.8%	+9.0	35
1964-02-16	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1700	1837	39.9%	21.3%	38.8%	-0.0	28
1964-02-16	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1837	1700	38.8%	21.3%	39.9%	+0.1	34
1964-02-23	Academica de Coimbra	L 3-4	1506	1667	36.5%	21.2%	42.3%	-10.8	10
1964-02-23	@ Barreirense	W 4-3	1667	1506	42.3%	21.2%	36.5%	+10.8	30
1964-02-23	Olhanense	W 2-1	1837	1493	79.1%	17.0%	3.9%	+1.4	37
1964-02-23	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1493	1837	3.9%	17.0%	79.1%	-1.4	5
1964-02-23	Leixoes	D 2-2	1585	1708	42.0%	21.3%	36.7%	-0.3	16
1964-02-23	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 2-2	1708	1585	36.7%	21.3%	42.0%	+0.3	21
1964-02-23	Benfica	D 1-1	1959	2059	45.0%	21.3%	33.7%	-0.8	39
1964-02-23	@ Porto	D 1-1	2059	1959	33.7%	21.3%	45.0%	+0.8	48
1964-02-23	Fabril	L 0-2	1514	1761	25.8%	20.7%	53.5%	-17.5	10
1964-02-23	@ Seixal	W 2-0	1761	1514	53.5%	20.7%	25.8%	+17.5	30
1964-02-23	Varzim	W 2-0	1932	1609	78.3%	17.4%	4.4%	+3.2	38
1964-02-23	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1609	1932	4.4%	17.4%	78.3%	-3.2	21
1964-02-23	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1839	1700	68.9%	20.0%	11.1%	+3.9	38
1964-02-23	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1700	1839	11.1%	20.0%	68.9%	-3.9	28
1964-03-01	Porto	L 1-2	1678	1958	22.2%	20.5%	57.3%	-7.7	30
1964-03-01	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1958	1678	57.3%	20.5%	22.2%	+7.7	42
1964-03-01	Seixal	D 1-1	1495	1497	57.0%	21.1%	21.9%	-2.6	11
1964-03-01	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1497	1495	21.9%	21.1%	57.0%	+2.6	11
1964-03-01	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 5-2	2060	1839	73.7%	19.0%	7.3%	+5.8	51
1964-03-01	@ Benfica	L 2-5	1839	2060	7.3%	19.0%	73.7%	-5.8	37
1964-03-01	Fabril	W 2-1	1708	1778	48.9%	21.3%	29.8%	+9.9	24
1964-03-01	@ Leixoes	L 1-2	1778	1708	29.8%	21.3%	48.9%	-9.9	30
1964-03-01	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1492	1843	16.0%	19.7%	64.3%	+20.3	8
1964-03-01	@ Olhanense	L 0-1	1843	1492	64.3%	19.7%	16.0%	-20.3	38
1964-03-01	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-0	1605	1585	59.2%	21.0%	19.8%	+14.1	24
1964-03-01	@ Varzim	L 0-2	1585	1605	19.8%	21.0%	59.2%	-14.1	16
1964-03-01	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1696	1935	26.7%	20.8%	52.5%	-15.6	28
1964-03-01	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1935	1696	52.5%	20.8%	26.7%	+15.6	41
1964-03-08	Academica de Coimbra	L 0-2	1833	1670	70.4%	19.7%	9.9%	-42.3	37
1964-03-08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1670	1833	9.9%	19.7%	70.4%	+42.3	33
1964-03-08	Varzim	W 2-0	1768	1619	69.6%	19.9%	10.6%	+7.9	33
1964-03-08	@ Fabril	L 0-2	1619	1768	10.6%	19.9%	69.6%	-7.9	24
1964-03-08	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1571	1681	43.7%	21.3%	35.0%	-13.5	16
1964-03-08	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1681	1571	35.0%	21.3%	43.7%	+13.5	31
1964-03-08	Barreirense	W 3-0	1966	1492	83.4%	14.6%	2.0%	+2.0	45
1964-03-08	@ Porto	L 0-3	1492	1966	2.0%	14.6%	83.4%	-2.0	11
1964-03-08	Leixoes	D 0-0	1499	1718	29.0%	20.9%	50.0%	+1.7	12
1964-03-08	@ Seixal	D 0-0	1718	1499	50.0%	20.9%	29.0%	-1.7	25
1964-03-08	Olhanense	D 1-1	1951	1512	82.3%	15.2%	2.4%	-6.3	42
1964-03-08	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1512	1951	2.4%	15.2%	82.3%	+6.3	9
1964-03-08	Benfica	L 1-4	1822	2065	26.2%	20.8%	53.1%	-21.7	38
1964-03-08	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	2065	1822	53.1%	20.8%	26.2%	+21.7	54
1964-03-15	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1713	1801	46.7%	21.3%	32.0%	-41.5	33
1964-03-15	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-0	1801	1713	32.0%	21.3%	46.7%	+41.5	41
1964-03-15	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1490	1791	20.3%	20.3%	59.5%	+3.3	12
1964-03-15	@ Barreirense	D 0-0	1791	1490	59.5%	20.3%	20.3%	-3.3	38
1964-03-15	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	2087	1944	69.2%	20.0%	10.9%	-3.4	55
1964-03-15	@ Benfica	D 2-2	1944	2087	10.9%	20.0%	69.2%	+3.4	43
1964-03-15	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-0	1518	1557	52.7%	21.2%	26.0%	+17.8	12
1964-03-15	@ Olhanense	L 0-2	1557	1518	26.0%	21.2%	52.7%	-17.8	16
1964-03-15	Seixal	W 3-1	1968	1501	83.2%	14.7%	2.1%	+1.3	48
1964-03-15	@ Porto	L 1-3	1501	1968	2.1%	14.7%	83.2%	-1.3	12
1964-03-15	Leixoes	D 3-3	1612	1716	44.4%	21.3%	34.3%	-0.4	25
1964-03-15	@ Varzim	D 3-3	1716	1612	34.3%	21.3%	44.4%	+0.4	26
1964-03-15	Fabril	W 2-1	1694	1776	47.4%	21.3%	31.3%	+10.3	34
1964-03-15	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1776	1694	31.3%	21.3%	47.4%	-10.3	33
1964-03-22	Porto	D 1-1	1787	1969	33.7%	21.1%	45.1%	+0.8	39
1964-03-22	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1969	1787	45.1%	21.1%	33.7%	-0.8	49
1964-03-22	Olhanense	W 4-1	1766	1536	74.2%	18.8%	7.0%	+6.4	36
1964-03-22	@ Fabril	L 1-4	1536	1766	7.0%	18.8%	74.2%	-6.4	12
1964-03-22	Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1717	1705	58.4%	21.0%	20.6%	+7.7	29
1964-03-22	@ Leixoes	L 0-1	1705	1717	20.6%	21.0%	58.4%	-7.7	34
1964-03-22	Benfica	L 1-3	1540	2084	6.2%	16.8%	77.0%	-3.9	16
1964-03-22	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 3-1	2084	1540	77.0%	16.8%	6.2%	+3.8	58
1964-03-22	Varzim	W 2-1	1500	1611	43.5%	21.3%	35.2%	+11.4	15
1964-03-22	@ Seixal	L 1-2	1611	1500	35.2%	21.3%	43.5%	-11.4	25
1964-03-22	Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1948	1671	76.3%	18.1%	5.5%	+2.2	46
1964-03-22	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1671	1948	5.5%	18.1%	76.3%	-2.2	33
1964-03-22	Barreirense	W 2-0	1842	1494	79.2%	16.9%	3.8%	+2.8	44
1964-03-22	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-2	1494	1842	3.8%	16.9%	79.2%	-2.8	12
1964-04-05	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1669	1536	68.5%	20.1%	11.4%	+12.3	36
1964-04-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-3	1536	1669	11.4%	20.1%	68.5%	-12.3	16
1964-04-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1491	1950	9.5%	18.2%	72.3%	+22.7	15
1964-04-05	@ Barreirense	L 0-1	1950	1491	72.3%	18.2%	9.5%	-22.7	46
1964-04-05	Seixal	L 1-2	1788	1511	76.4%	18.1%	5.5%	-22.8	39
1964-04-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1511	1788	5.5%	18.1%	76.4%	+22.8	18
1964-04-05	Fabril	W 2-1	2088	1772	78.0%	17.5%	4.5%	+1.7	61
1964-04-05	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1772	2088	4.5%	17.5%	78.0%	-1.7	36
1964-04-05	Leixoes	D 1-1	1530	1724	32.0%	21.1%	46.9%	+1.1	13
1964-04-05	@ Olhanense	D 1-1	1724	1530	46.9%	21.1%	32.0%	-1.0	30
1964-04-05	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1968	1845	67.8%	20.2%	12.0%	+4.5	52
1964-04-05	@ Porto	L 1-2	1845	1968	12.0%	20.2%	67.8%	-4.5	44
1964-04-05	Varzim	W 2-1	1697	1600	65.9%	20.4%	13.7%	+5.0	37
1964-04-05	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1600	1697	13.7%	20.4%	65.9%	-5.0	25
1964-04-12	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1771	1681	65.3%	20.5%	14.2%	+14.0	39
1964-04-12	@ Fabril	L 2-6	1681	1771	14.2%	20.5%	65.3%	-14.0	36
1964-04-12	Benfica	L 1-5	1723	2089	14.9%	19.5%	65.6%	-16.9	30
1964-04-12	@ Leixoes	W 5-1	2089	1723	65.6%	19.5%	14.9%	+16.8	64
1964-04-12	Barreirense	W 1-0	1523	1514	58.1%	21.0%	20.8%	+7.8	19
1964-04-12	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-1	1514	1523	20.8%	21.0%	58.1%	-7.8	15
1964-04-12	Porto	D 0-0	1927	1973	52.0%	21.2%	26.8%	-2.0	47
1964-04-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1973	1927	26.8%	21.2%	52.0%	+2.0	53
1964-04-12	Olhanense	W 5-2	1595	1531	63.2%	20.7%	16.1%	+12.4	28
1964-04-12	@ Varzim	L 2-5	1531	1595	16.1%	20.7%	63.2%	-12.4	13
1964-04-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1840	1765	64.2%	20.6%	15.2%	+5.6	47
1964-04-12	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1765	1840	15.2%	20.6%	64.2%	-5.6	39
1964-04-12	Seixal	W 3-0	1702	1534	70.8%	19.7%	9.6%	+10.4	40
1964-04-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-3	1534	1702	9.6%	19.7%	70.8%	-10.4	18
1964-04-19	Leixoes	L 2-3	1667	1706	52.8%	21.2%	26.0%	-15.1	36
1964-04-19	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1706	1667	26.0%	21.2%	52.8%	+15.1	33
1964-04-19	Fabril	L 0-1	1506	1785	22.3%	20.5%	57.2%	-8.2	15
1964-04-19	@ Barreirense	W 1-0	1785	1506	57.2%	20.5%	22.3%	+8.2	42
1964-04-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-2	1760	1925	35.9%	21.2%	42.9%	+20.6	42
1964-04-19	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-4	1925	1760	42.9%	21.2%	35.9%	-20.6	47
1964-04-19	Varzim	W 8-0	2106	1607	84.1%	14.1%	1.8%	+4.4	67
1964-04-19	@ Benfica	L 0-8	1607	2106	1.8%	14.1%	84.1%	-4.4	28
1964-04-19	Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1518	1712	32.1%	21.1%	46.8%	+1.0	14
1964-04-19	@ Olhanense	D 1-1	1712	1518	46.8%	21.1%	32.1%	-1.0	41
1964-04-19	Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1975	1531	82.5%	15.2%	2.4%	+0.9	56
1964-04-19	@ Porto	L 0-1	1531	1975	2.4%	15.2%	82.5%	-0.9	19
1964-04-19	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 3-4	1523	1846	18.3%	20.0%	61.7%	-6.0	18
1964-04-19	@ Seixal	W 4-3	1846	1523	61.7%	20.0%	18.3%	+6.0	50

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-04-05	5.52%	Seixal	1511	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1788	1
2	1964-04-05	9.47%	@ Barreirense	1491	1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1950	0
3	1964-03-08	9.87%	Academica de Coimbra	1670	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1833	0
4	1963-12-01	9.98%	Vitoria Setubal	1702	2	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1863	1
5	1963-12-08	12.19%	Lusitano de Evora	1603	2	@ Vitoria Setubal	1723	1
6	1963-11-10	14.24%	Barreirense	1522	4	@ Olhanense	1611	1
7	1964-03-01	16.00%	@ Olhanense	1492	1	Vitoria Guimaraes	1843	0
8	1964-01-05	16.24%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1808	3	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1870	0
9	1963-12-01	18.38%	Varzim	1586	1	@ Lusitano de Evora	1622	0
10	1963-12-01	19.17%	Barreirense	1549	3	@ Seixal	1576	1
11	1964-01-19	24.59%	Seixal	1530	1	@ Olhanense	1504	0
12	1964-04-19	26.00%	Leixoes	1706	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1667	2
13	1963-11-17	26.12%	Academica de Coimbra	1644	1	@ Seixal	1604	0
14	1963-11-10	27.26%	@ Fabril	1673	4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1907	0
15	1964-01-19	27.43%	@ Fabril	1711	1	Porto	1943	0
16	1963-11-10	29.24%	@ Vitoria Setubal	1687	2	Porto	1904	1
17	1964-01-05	30.13%	Varzim	1604	1	@ Olhanense	1531	0
18	1963-11-03	31.02%	Vitoria Setubal	1644	3	@ Barreirense	1564	0
19	1963-12-08	31.30%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1681	1	Os Belenenses (1st)	1881	0
20	1964-03-15	32.04%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1801	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1713	0
21	1964-02-02	32.48%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1816	2	@ Leixoes	1725	1
22	1964-01-26	33.17%	Varzim	1633	2	@ Barreirense	1537	1
23	1963-10-27	34.00%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1754	5	@ Lusitano de Evora	1652	2
24	1964-03-08	34.97%	Vitoria Setubal	1681	2	@ Lusitano de Evora	1571	1
25	1964-04-19	35.95%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1760	4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1925	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1963-11-10	59.39	@ Fabril	4	1673	27.26%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	1907	51.91%
2	1964-01-05	55.00	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1808	16.24%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1870	63.05%
3	1963-11-10	48.01	Barreirense	4	1522	14.24%	@ Olhanense	1	1611	65.27%
4	1963-11-03	42.29	Vitoria Setubal	3	1644	31.02%	@ Barreirense	0	1564	47.67%
5	1964-03-08	42.28	Academica de Coimbra	2	1670	9.87%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1833	70.41%
6	1964-03-15	41.50	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1801	32.04%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1713	46.65%
7	1963-10-27	37.16	@ Vitoria Setubal	4	1607	49.43%	Academica de Coimbra	0	1674	29.27%
8	1963-12-22	31.47	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1877	45.64%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1691	33.26%
9	1963-12-01	31.16	Barreirense	3	1549	19.17%	@ Seixal	1	1576	59.88%
10	1964-01-19	29.94	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	5	1908	61.35%	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1865	17.80%
11	1963-10-27	29.21	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	1754	34.00%	@ Lusitano de Evora	2	1652	44.69%
12	1963-12-29	27.54	Benfica	3	1969	50.78%	@ Fabril	0	1745	28.34%
13	1964-01-19	22.99	@ Varzim	4	1610	50.92%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1664	27.81%
14	1964-04-05	22.77	Seixal	2	1511	5.52%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1788	76.36%
15	1964-04-05	22.69	@ Barreirense	1	1491	9.47%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	1950	72.31%
16	1964-01-19	22.10	@ Leixoes	6	1706	69.43%	Barreirense	0	1559	10.67%
17	1964-02-02	22.06	Porto	3	1930	57.66%	@ Varzim	0	1647	21.91%
18	1964-02-16	21.77	@ Academica de Coimbra	7	1646	66.85%	Seixal	1	1536	12.85%
19	1964-03-08	21.70	Benfica	4	2065	53.09%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1	1822	26.15%
20	1963-12-01	21.10	Vitoria Setubal	2	1702	9.98%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	1863	70.27%
21	1963-12-15	20.91	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1856	40.73%	Benfica	1	1987	37.99%
22	1964-01-12	20.71	Porto	3	1923	59.31%	@ Lusitano de Evora	0	1624	20.41%
23	1964-01-26	20.62	@ Academica de Coimbra	2	1641	47.52%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1723	31.17%
24	1964-04-19	20.58	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	4	1760	35.95%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	1925	42.87%
25	1963-10-20	20.52	Leixoes	3	1759	41.65%	@ Barreirense	1	1603	37.13%