1947-48 Primeira Divisão Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Sporting Clube de Portugal

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Estoril

4.23 points above expected

36 points · 31.77 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Braga

5.79 points below expected

16 points · 21.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	26	20	1	5	41	92	40	+52	39.3	+1.72
2	Benfica	26	19	3	4	41	84	35	+49	39.3	+1.74
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	26	16	5	5	37	76	30	+46	36.6	+0.40
4	Estoril	26	16	4	6	36	91	49	+42	31.8	+4.23
5	Porto	26	17	2	7	36	73	42	+31	33.7	+2.29
6	Atletico Clube de Portugal	26	11	4	11	26	69	62	+7	24.0	+1.97
7	O Elvas	26	11	2	13	24	66	63	+3	22.2	+1.76
8	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	10	4	12	24	44	56	-12	21.3	+2.68
9	Boavista	26	9	2	15	20	40	65	-25	19.4	+0.58
10	Vitoria Setubal	26	8	3	15	19	38	64	-26	18.3	+0.68
11	Olhanense	26	5	7	14	17	48	66	-18	22.6	-5.60
12	Lusitano VRSA	26	7	3	16	17	29	78	-49	20.8	-3.76
13	Braga	26	6	4	16	16	47	69	-22	21.8	-5.79
14	Academica de Coimbra	26	4	2	20	10	35	113	-78	12.9	-2.90

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1823	41	39.28	+1.72	72.0%	30	32	37	39	42	46	47
Benfica	1807	41	39.26	+1.74	72.0%	29	34	37	39	42	45	47
Os Belenenses (1st)	1705	37	36.60	+0.40	54.0%	26	29	34	37	39	42	45
Porto	1670	36	33.71	+2.29	70.0%	23	27	31	34	37	40	43
Estoril	1639	36	31.77	+4.23	88.0%	25	26	29	31	35	38	40
Atletico Clube de Portugal	1464	26	24.03	+1.97	71.0%	14	17	21	24	27	31	33
Vitoria Guimaraes	1406	24	21.32	+2.68	80.0%	14	15	19	21	24	27	31
O Elvas	1402	24	22.24	+1.76	73.0%	15	16	19	22	25	28	31
Olhanense	1366	17	22.60	-5.60	7.0%	11	17	20	23	25	29	33
Vitoria Setubal	1362	19	18.32	+0.68	59.0%	9	11	15	19	21	26	29
Braga	1344	16	21.79	-5.79	6.0%	14	16	19	22	24	28	32
Boavista	1329	20	19.42	+0.58	65.0%	10	13	16	19	22	26	30
Lusitano VRSA	1291	17	20.76	-3.76	26.0%	10	14	17	21	24	28	30
Academica de Coimbra	1145	10	12.90	-2.90	24.0%	4	7	11	12	15	20	21

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	ACDP	BEN	BOA	BRA	EST	LV	OE	OLH	OB(	POR	SCDP	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	0-0-2 1.48	0-0-2 0.52	1-0-1 1.90	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 0.77	1-0-1 2.02	1-0-1 1.70	0-1-1 1.79	0-0-2 0.97	0-0-2 0.72	0-0-2 0.54	0-1-1 2.21	0-0-2 2.48
Atletico Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.31	—	0-0-2 1.06	1-0-1 3.26	2-0-0 3.14	0-1-1 1.84	1-0-1 3.46	1-0-1 3.05	2-0-0 2.72	0-2-0 1.43	0-1-1 1.87	0-0-2 1.30	1-0-1 3.34	1-0-1 3.52
Benfica	2-0-0 5.28	2-0-0 4.73	—	2-0-0 5.02	1-1-0 4.88	1-0-1 3.72	2-0-0 4.63	1-0-1 4.68	1-1-0 4.70	1-0-1 3.19	2-0-0 3.38	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 4.55	2-0-0 4.77
Boavista	1-0-1 3.88	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 0.77	—	1-1-0 2.65	0-0-2 1.79	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 1.01	0-0-2 1.85	1-0-1 0.79	0-1-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.80
Braga	1-0-1 3.71	0-0-2 2.64	0-1-1 0.91	0-1-1 3.13	—	1-0-1 1.58	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.77	0-1-1 2.71	0-0-2 1.05	0-0-2 1.78	0-0-2 0.94	1-0-1 2.82	1-1-0 3.19
Estoril	2-0-0 5.02	1-1-0 3.94	1-0-1 2.06	2-0-0 3.99	1-0-1 4.20	—	1-1-0 3.66	1-0-1 4.03	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 2.09	1-1-0 2.61	0-0-2 2.13	1-0-1 4.40	1-1-0 4.33
Lusitano VRSA	1-0-1 3.77	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 1.16	1-0-1 3.00	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.12	—	1-0-1 3.07	0-2-0 2.55	1-0-1 0.85	0-0-2 1.19	0-0-2 0.67	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.97
O Elvas	1-0-1 4.09	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 1.11	1-0-1 3.12	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 1.75	1-0-1 2.71	—	1-1-0 2.86	1-1-0 1.14	0-0-2 1.55	0-0-2 1.00	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 3.20
Olhanense	1-1-0 3.99	0-0-2 3.06	0-1-1 1.09	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 3.07	0-0-2 1.87	0-2-0 3.23	0-1-1 2.92	—	0-1-1 1.20	0-0-2 1.68	0-0-2 1.19	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.52
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 4.82	0-2-0 4.36	1-0-1 2.58	2-0-0 4.78	2-0-0 4.74	0-0-2 3.69	1-0-1 4.93	0-1-1 4.65	1-1-0 4.58	—	2-0-0 3.04	1-1-0 2.63	2-0-0 4.21	2-0-0 4.78
Porto	2-0-0 5.08	1-1-0 3.92	0-0-2 2.40	2-0-0 3.94	2-0-0 4.00	0-1-1 3.17	2-0-0 4.60	2-0-0 4.24	2-0-0 4.10	0-0-2 2.73	—	1-0-1 2.36	2-0-0 4.15	1-0-1 4.40
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 5.26	2-0-0 4.49	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 5.00	2-0-0 4.85	2-0-0 3.65	2-0-0 5.12	2-0-0 4.79	2-0-0 4.59	0-1-1 3.15	1-0-1 3.42	—	2-0-0 4.87	1-0-1 5.11
Vitoria Guimaraes	1-1-0 3.57	1-0-1 2.45	0-1-1 1.25	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 1.38	2-0-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 1.58	0-0-2 1.63	0-0-2 0.91	—	1-1-0 3.04
Vitoria Setubal	2-0-0 3.30	1-0-1 2.26	0-0-2 1.02	0-0-2 2.98	0-1-1 2.59	0-1-1 1.46	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.26	0-0-2 1.00	1-0-1 1.39	1-0-1 0.68	0-1-1 2.74	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.65%	2.75%	3.02%	3.30%	1.92%	3.02%	15.66%
1	2.75%	4.95%	6.32%	4.67%	3.85%	4.12%	26.65%
2	3.02%	6.32%	3.30%	3.30%	1.10%	3.85%	20.88%
3	3.30%	4.67%	3.30%	2.20%	0.55%	1.37%	15.38%
4	1.92%	3.85%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	8.52%
5+	3.02%	4.12%	3.85%	1.37%	0.55%	—	12.91%
Total	15.66%	26.65%	20.88%	15.38%	8.52%	12.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.29
Mean allowed	2.29
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	1.98
Mean total goals/game	4.57
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.174
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%	19.23%
1	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	7.69%	23.08%	42.31%
2	—	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	11.54%	26.92%
3	—	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	7.69%
4	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.85%	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	50.00%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.35
Mean allowed	4.35
StdDev scored	1.02
StdDev allowed	2.61
Mean total goals/game	5.69
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.168
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
1	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	15.38%
2	—	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	34.62%
3	3.85%	11.54%	—	—	—	7.69%	23.08%
4	—	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	7.69%
5+	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
Total	11.54%	34.62%	11.54%	7.69%	15.38%	19.23%	100%

Atletico Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.65
Mean allowed	2.38
StdDev scored	2.04
StdDev allowed	1.79
Mean total goals/game	5.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.180
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	19.23%
2	15.38%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
3	11.54%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
4	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
Total	34.62%	23.08%	23.08%	11.54%	7.69%	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.23
Mean allowed	1.35
StdDev scored	1.86
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	4.58
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.015
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%	34.62%
1	—	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
2	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
3	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
4	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	—	7.69%	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	15.38%	19.23%	19.23%	19.23%	7.69%	19.23%	100%

Boavista — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.54
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	1.88
Mean total goals/game	4.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.456
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	15.38%
1	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	15.38%	—	7.69%	42.31%
2	—	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	15.38%
3	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	15.38%
4	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	7.69%	23.08%	11.54%	30.77%	15.38%	11.54%	100%

Braga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.81
Mean allowed	2.65
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	4.46
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.202
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
1	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	19.23%
2	—	—	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
3	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
5+	3.85%	11.54%	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	30.77%
Total	7.69%	30.77%	42.31%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Estoril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.50
Mean allowed	1.88
StdDev scored	2.10
StdDev allowed	1.18
Mean total goals/game	5.38
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.364
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	11.54%	30.77%
1	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	38.46%
2	3.85%	15.38%	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	26.92%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	11.54%	34.62%	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	26.92%	100%

Lusitano VRSA — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.12
Mean allowed	3.00
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	2.95
Mean total goals/game	4.12
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.269
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
1	—	3.85%	15.38%	—	3.85%	3.85%	26.92%
2	—	11.54%	3.85%	—	3.85%	7.69%	26.92%
3	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	15.38%
4	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
Total	11.54%	30.77%	26.92%	3.85%	11.54%	15.38%	100%

O Elvas — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.54
Mean allowed	2.42
StdDev scored	2.55
StdDev allowed	2.14
Mean total goals/game	4.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.300
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
1	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	15.38%	7.69%	—	42.31%
2	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
3	—	—	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	11.54%
4	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%	3.85%
5+	7.69%	—	7.69%	—	—	—	15.38%
Total	19.23%	7.69%	26.92%	26.92%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.85
Mean allowed	2.54
StdDev scored	1.71
StdDev allowed	2.21
Mean total goals/game	4.38
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.139
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
1	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
2	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	11.54%
3	11.54%	—	11.54%	—	—	—	23.08%
4	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
5+	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
Total	42.31%	23.08%	23.08%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.92
Mean allowed	1.15
StdDev scored	2.02
StdDev allowed	1.35
Mean total goals/game	4.08
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.187
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
1	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	—	19.23%
2	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	15.38%
3	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
5+	—	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	19.23%
Total	26.92%	26.92%	19.23%	15.38%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.81
Mean allowed	1.62
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	1.44
Mean total goals/game	4.42
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.139
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
1	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	11.54%
2	—	19.23%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
3	—	7.69%	11.54%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	11.54%	—	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
5+	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
Total	11.54%	50.00%	19.23%	11.54%	7.69%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.54
Mean allowed	1.54
StdDev scored	2.50
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	5.08
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.326
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	—	15.38%	3.85%	3.85%	30.77%
1	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
2	—	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	3.85%	26.92%
3	—	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	3.85%	34.62%	26.92%	23.08%	3.85%	7.69%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.69
Mean allowed	2.15
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	1.38
Mean total goals/game	3.85
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.332
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%	—	—	23.08%
1	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	11.54%	—	7.69%	38.46%
2	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%
3	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	23.08%	19.23%	30.77%	3.85%	11.54%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.46
Mean allowed	2.46
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.94
Mean total goals/game	3.92
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.225
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Estoril	36	31.8	+4.23
2	Vitoria Guimaraes	24	21.3	+2.68
3	Porto	36	33.7	+2.29
4	Atletico Clube de Portugal	26	24.0	+1.97
5	O Elvas	24	22.2	+1.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Braga	16	21.8	-5.79
2	Olhanense	17	22.6	-5.60
3	Lusitano VRSA	17	20.8	-3.76
4	Academica de Coimbra	10	12.9	-2.90
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	37	36.6	+0.40

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	O Elvas	3	May 2 – May 16	1 in 255
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	6	Nov 16 – Dec 28	1 in 34
3	Benfica	7	Feb 29 – Apr 18	1 in 13
4	Porto	4	Nov 16 – Dec 14	1 in 10
5	Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	Mar 14 – Apr 4	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	Apr 25 – May 2	1 in 35
2	Estoril	3	Mar 7 – Mar 28	1 in 24
3	Braga	4	Dec 14 – Jan 1	1 in 19
4	Olhanense	4	Mar 28 – Apr 18	1 in 18
5	Lusitano VRSA	5	Apr 25 – May 30	1 in 16

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	O Elvas	5	Dec 28 – Jan 18	1 in 45
2	Estoril	7	Jan 11 – Feb 29	1 in 37
3	Atletico Clube de Portugal	4	Mar 14 – Apr 11	1 in 29
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	Mar 14 – Apr 18	1 in 28
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	8	Nov 16 – Jan 4	1 in 21

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	Apr 4 – May 2	1 in 344
2	Olhanense	7	Dec 7 – Jan 11	1 in 57
3	Porto	3	May 9 – May 30	1 in 25
4	Estoril	4	Feb 29 – Mar 28	1 in 18
5	Braga	7	Jan 11 – Feb 29	1 in 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Sporting Clube de Portugal	41.00%	29.00%	12.00%	15.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Benfica	35.00%	35.00%	16.00%	9.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	19.00%	17.00%	41.00%	16.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Estoril	1.00%	6.00%	15.00%	22.00%	41.00%	11.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Porto	4.00%	13.00%	16.00%	34.00%	27.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Atletico Clube de Portugal	—	—	—	3.00%	10.00%	18.00%	18.00%	15.00%	13.00%	8.00%	6.00%	7.00%	1.00%	1.00%
O Elvas	—	—	—	—	4.00%	17.00%	17.00%	12.00%	11.00%	16.00%	8.00%	12.00%	3.00%	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	—	—	—	—	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	16.00%	12.00%	16.00%	8.00%	11.00%	—
Boavista	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%	5.00%	12.00%	8.00%	6.00%	22.00%	16.00%	18.00%	8.00%
Vitoria Setubal	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	11.00%	11.00%	12.00%	15.00%	26.00%	14.00%
Olhanense	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	15.00%	16.00%	15.00%	14.00%	17.00%	10.00%	8.00%	—	2.00%
Lusitano VRSA	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%	7.00%	13.00%	12.00%	9.00%	13.00%	14.00%	18.00%	4.00%
Braga	—	—	—	—	3.00%	7.00%	14.00%	13.00%	14.00%	17.00%	10.00%	14.00%	8.00%	—
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	3.00%	6.00%	15.00%	71.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Benfica	100%	—
Braga	100%	—
Estoril	100%	—
O Elvas	100%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%	—
Porto	100%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	100%	—
Atletico Clube de Portugal	99.0%	1.0%
Olhanense	98.0%	2.0%
Lusitano VRSA	96.0%	4.0%
Boavista	92.0%	8.0%
Vitoria Setubal	86.0%	14.0%
Academica de Coimbra	29.0%	71.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1947-11-16	Olhanense	D 3-3	1288	1487	47.3%	11.1%	41.6%	-0.3	1
1947-11-16	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 3-3	1487	1288	41.6%	11.1%	47.3%	+0.3	1
1947-11-16	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1431	1738	32.4%	11.0%	56.6%	-23.8	0
1947-11-16	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-1	1738	1431	56.6%	11.0%	32.4%	+23.8	3
1947-11-16	Braga	W 6-1	1701	1440	84.7%	10.5%	4.7%	+5.9	3
1947-11-16	@ Benfica	L 1-6	1440	1701	4.7%	10.5%	84.7%	-5.9	0
1947-11-16	Estoril	D 1-1	1440	1547	59.5%	11.1%	29.4%	-2.2	1
1947-11-16	@ Lusitano VRSA	D 1-1	1547	1440	29.4%	11.1%	59.5%	+2.2	1
1947-11-16	O Elvas	W 4-0	1563	1354	83.1%	10.7%	6.3%	+7.6	3
1947-11-16	@ Porto	L 0-4	1354	1563	6.3%	10.7%	83.1%	-7.6	0
1947-11-16	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1401	1628	43.4%	11.1%	45.5%	-13.4	0
1947-11-16	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1628	1401	45.5%	11.1%	43.4%	+13.4	3
1947-11-16	Boavista	L 0-2	1375	1360	72.0%	11.0%	17.0%	-41.0	0
1947-11-16	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1360	1375	17.0%	11.0%	72.0%	+41.0	3
1947-11-30	Benfica	W 4-1	1641	1707	64.3%	11.1%	24.7%	+18.5	6
1947-11-30	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-4	1707	1641	24.7%	11.1%	64.3%	-18.5	3
1947-11-30	Porto	L 0-3	1401	1571	51.4%	11.1%	37.5%	-42.8	3
1947-11-30	@ Boavista	W 3-0	1571	1401	37.5%	11.1%	51.4%	+42.8	6
1947-11-30	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1434	1288	80.4%	10.8%	8.8%	+2.8	3
1947-11-30	@ Braga	L 1-2	1288	1434	8.8%	10.8%	80.4%	-2.8	1
1947-11-30	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-4	1550	1407	80.2%	10.8%	8.9%	+2.6	4
1947-11-30	@ Estoril	L 4-5	1407	1550	8.9%	10.8%	80.2%	-2.6	0
1947-11-30	Lusitano VRSA	W 7-0	1346	1437	61.4%	11.1%	27.5%	+53.8	3
1947-11-30	@ O Elvas	L 0-7	1437	1346	27.5%	11.1%	61.4%	-53.8	1
1947-11-30	Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1487	1334	80.8%	10.8%	8.5%	+2.9	4
1947-11-30	@ Olhanense	L 0-1	1334	1487	8.5%	10.8%	80.8%	-2.9	0
1947-11-30	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1762	1387	87.3%	10.2%	2.5%	+0.8	6
1947-11-30	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1387	1762	2.5%	10.2%	87.3%	-0.8	0
1947-12-07	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1285	1660	24.5%	10.9%	64.6%	-28.4	1
1947-12-07	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-0	1660	1285	64.6%	10.9%	24.5%	+28.4	9
1947-12-07	O Elvas	W 5-2	1405	1400	71.1%	11.0%	17.8%	+11.8	3
1947-12-07	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1400	1405	17.8%	11.0%	71.1%	-11.8	3
1947-12-07	Boavista	W 2-0	1384	1358	72.9%	11.0%	16.2%	+10.1	4
1947-12-07	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-2	1358	1384	16.2%	11.0%	72.9%	-10.1	3
1947-12-07	Olhanense	W 7-3	1614	1490	79.3%	10.8%	9.9%	+7.7	9
1947-12-07	@ Porto	L 3-7	1490	1614	9.9%	10.8%	79.3%	-7.7	4
1947-12-07	Estoril	W 3-1	1763	1552	83.1%	10.7%	6.2%	+3.5	9
1947-12-07	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1552	1763	6.2%	10.7%	83.1%	-3.5	4
1947-12-07	Benfica	D 2-2	1387	1688	33.1%	11.0%	55.8%	+1.2	1
1947-12-07	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1688	1387	55.8%	11.0%	33.1%	-1.2	4
1947-12-07	Braga	D 1-1	1331	1437	59.7%	11.1%	29.2%	-2.2	1
1947-12-07	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1437	1331	29.2%	11.1%	59.7%	+2.2	4
1947-12-14	Vitoria Setubal	W 7-1	1688	1329	87.0%	10.2%	2.8%	+4.1	12
1947-12-14	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-7	1329	1688	2.8%	10.2%	87.0%	-4.1	1
1947-12-14	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-0	1687	1256	88.1%	10.0%	1.9%	+2.8	7
1947-12-14	@ Benfica	L 0-5	1256	1687	1.9%	10.0%	88.1%	-2.8	1
1947-12-14	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-2	1348	1416	64.0%	11.1%	24.9%	+16.2	6
1947-12-14	@ Boavista	L 2-5	1416	1348	24.9%	11.1%	64.0%	-16.2	3
1947-12-14	Porto	L 0-3	1439	1621	49.7%	11.1%	39.2%	-41.5	4
1947-12-14	@ Braga	W 3-0	1621	1439	39.2%	11.1%	49.7%	+41.5	12
1947-12-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-2	1549	1388	81.1%	10.8%	8.1%	+7.0	7
1947-12-14	@ Estoril	L 2-6	1388	1549	8.1%	10.8%	81.1%	-7.0	1
1947-12-14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1388	1766	24.1%	10.9%	65.0%	-7.4	3
1947-12-14	@ O Elvas	W 2-1	1766	1388	65.0%	10.9%	24.1%	+7.4	12
1947-12-14	Lusitano VRSA	D 1-1	1482	1394	77.3%	10.9%	11.8%	-5.0	5
1947-12-14	@ Olhanense	D 1-1	1394	1482	11.8%	10.9%	77.3%	+5.0	5
1947-12-21	Olhanense	W 10-4	1400	1477	63.0%	11.1%	25.9%	+25.0	6
1947-12-21	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 4-10	1477	1400	25.9%	11.1%	63.0%	-25.0	5
1947-12-21	O Elvas	W 8-2	1556	1381	81.7%	10.7%	7.5%	+9.2	10
1947-12-21	@ Estoril	L 2-8	1381	1556	7.5%	10.7%	81.7%	-9.2	3
1947-12-21	Braga	W 2-1	1399	1397	70.9%	11.0%	18.1%	+5.7	8
1947-12-21	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1397	1399	18.1%	11.0%	70.9%	-5.6	4
1947-12-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1663	1692	68.0%	11.0%	20.9%	-38.7	12
1947-12-21	@ Porto	W 2-0	1692	1663	20.9%	11.0%	68.0%	+38.7	15
1947-12-21	Boavista	W 5-0	1774	1364	87.8%	10.1%	2.1%	+3.2	15
1947-12-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-5	1364	1774	2.1%	10.1%	87.8%	-3.2	6
1947-12-21	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1381	1254	79.5%	10.8%	9.7%	+2.9	4
1947-12-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1254	1381	9.7%	10.8%	79.5%	-2.9	1
1947-12-21	Benfica	L 0-3	1325	1690	25.6%	10.9%	63.5%	-22.6	1
1947-12-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1690	1325	63.5%	10.9%	25.6%	+22.6	10
1947-12-28	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-4	1251	1302	65.8%	11.1%	23.2%	-45.8	1
1947-12-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1302	1251	23.2%	11.1%	65.8%	+45.8	4
1947-12-28	Lusitano VRSA	W 5-0	1731	1405	86.3%	10.4%	3.3%	+5.0	18
1947-12-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1405	1731	3.3%	10.4%	86.3%	-5.0	8
1947-12-28	Porto	W 4-1	1713	1624	77.3%	10.9%	11.8%	+9.2	13
1947-12-28	@ Benfica	L 1-4	1624	1713	11.8%	10.9%	77.3%	-9.2	12
1947-12-28	Estoril	L 1-4	1361	1565	46.7%	11.1%	42.2%	-33.0	6
1947-12-28	@ Boavista	W 4-1	1565	1361	42.2%	11.1%	46.7%	+33.0	13
1947-12-28	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1392	1425	67.6%	11.1%	21.3%	-33.3	4
1947-12-28	@ Braga	W 3-1	1425	1392	21.3%	11.1%	67.6%	+33.3	9
1947-12-28	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1371	1384	69.6%	11.0%	19.4%	+17.5	6
1947-12-28	@ O Elvas	L 0-3	1384	1371	19.4%	11.0%	69.6%	-17.5	4
1947-12-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1452	1777	30.3%	11.0%	58.7%	-9.1	5
1947-12-28	@ Olhanense	W 2-1	1777	1452	58.7%	11.0%	30.3%	+9.1	18
1948-01-01	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1458	1736	36.4%	11.0%	52.6%	+1.2	10
1948-01-01	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1736	1458	52.6%	11.0%	36.4%	-1.2	19
1948-01-01	Olhanense	W 3-1	1598	1443	80.8%	10.8%	8.4%	+4.7	16
1948-01-01	@ Estoril	L 1-3	1443	1598	8.4%	10.8%	80.8%	-4.6	5
1948-01-01	Benfica	L 2-7	1400	1722	30.6%	11.0%	58.4%	-29.8	8
1948-01-01	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 7-2	1722	1400	58.4%	11.0%	30.6%	+29.8	16
1948-01-01	Boavista	W 5-0	1389	1328	75.5%	10.9%	13.6%	+20.1	9
1948-01-01	@ O Elvas	L 0-5	1328	1389	13.6%	10.9%	75.5%	-20.1	6
1948-01-01	Academica de Coimbra	W 7-1	1615	1205	87.8%	10.1%	2.1%	+3.1	15
1948-01-01	@ Porto	L 1-7	1205	1615	2.1%	10.1%	87.8%	-3.1	1
1948-01-01	Braga	W 3-2	1786	1358	88.1%	10.0%	1.9%	+0.6	21
1948-01-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1358	1786	1.9%	10.0%	88.1%	-0.6	4
1948-01-01	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1366	1348	72.3%	11.0%	16.7%	+9.1	7
1948-01-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1348	1366	16.7%	11.0%	72.3%	-9.1	4
1948-01-04	Lusitano VRSA	W 2-1	1202	1370	51.7%	11.1%	37.2%	+11.0	4
1948-01-04	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1370	1202	37.2%	11.1%	51.7%	-11.0	8
1948-01-04	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 3-2	1735	1787	65.7%	11.1%	23.2%	+6.8	22
1948-01-04	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1787	1735	23.2%	11.1%	65.7%	-6.8	21
1948-01-04	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-2	1752	1460	85.5%	10.5%	4.0%	+2.7	19
1948-01-04	@ Benfica	L 2-5	1460	1752	4.0%	10.5%	85.5%	-2.7	10
1948-01-04	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1308	1375	64.1%	11.1%	24.8%	-2.2	7
1948-01-04	@ Boavista	D 2-2	1375	1308	24.8%	11.1%	64.1%	+2.2	8
1948-01-04	Estoril	W 5-2	1358	1603	40.9%	11.1%	48.1%	+29.4	7
1948-01-04	@ Braga	L 2-5	1603	1358	48.1%	11.1%	40.9%	-29.4	16
1948-01-04	O Elvas	D 2-2	1439	1409	73.2%	11.0%	15.8%	-3.2	6
1948-01-04	@ Olhanense	D 2-2	1409	1439	15.8%	11.0%	73.2%	+3.2	10
1948-01-04	Porto	W 3-2	1339	1618	36.1%	11.0%	52.8%	+14.3	7
1948-01-04	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 2-3	1618	1339	52.8%	11.0%	36.1%	-14.3	15
1948-01-11	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-0	1457	1213	84.2%	10.6%	5.2%	+9.3	13
1948-01-11	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-6	1213	1457	5.2%	10.6%	84.2%	-9.3	4
1948-01-11	Olhanense	W 2-0	1306	1435	56.7%	11.1%	32.2%	+19.3	10
1948-01-11	@ Boavista	L 0-2	1435	1306	32.2%	11.1%	56.7%	-19.3	6
1948-01-11	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 5-2	1573	1741	51.7%	11.1%	37.2%	+23.4	19
1948-01-11	@ Estoril	L 2-5	1741	1573	37.2%	11.1%	51.7%	-23.4	22
1948-01-11	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1359	1353	71.2%	11.0%	17.8%	+5.6	11
1948-01-11	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1353	1359	17.8%	11.0%	71.2%	-5.5	7
1948-01-11	Braga	W 3-1	1412	1387	72.8%	11.0%	16.2%	+8.8	13
1948-01-11	@ O Elvas	L 1-3	1387	1412	16.2%	11.0%	72.8%	-8.8	7
1948-01-11	Benfica	L 1-3	1780	1754	72.9%	11.0%	16.2%	-35.9	21
1948-01-11	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1754	1780	16.2%	11.0%	72.9%	+35.9	22
1948-01-11	Porto	L 0-3	1378	1604	43.5%	11.1%	45.4%	-36.8	8
1948-01-11	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1604	1378	45.4%	11.1%	43.5%	+36.8	18
1948-01-18	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-6	1203	1744	11.1%	10.6%	78.3%	-6.9	4
1948-01-18	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 6-3	1744	1203	78.3%	10.6%	11.1%	+6.9	24
1948-01-18	O Elvas	D 1-1	1718	1421	85.7%	10.4%	3.9%	-6.4	23
1948-01-18	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1421	1718	3.9%	10.4%	85.7%	+6.4	14
1948-01-18	Estoril	L 2-3	1790	1597	82.5%	10.7%	6.8%	-22.4	22
1948-01-18	@ Benfica	W 3-2	1597	1790	6.8%	10.7%	82.5%	+22.4	22
1948-01-18	Boavista	D 3-3	1378	1325	75.0%	11.0%	14.1%	-2.9	8
1948-01-18	@ Braga	D 3-3	1325	1378	14.1%	11.0%	75.0%	+2.9	11
1948-01-18	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-0	1416	1341	76.4%	10.9%	12.6%	+18.7	9
1948-01-18	@ Olhanense	L 0-5	1341	1416	12.6%	10.9%	76.4%	-18.7	8
1948-01-18	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-0	1640	1364	85.1%	10.5%	4.4%	+4.1	21
1948-01-18	@ Porto	L 0-3	1364	1640	4.4%	10.5%	85.1%	-4.1	11
1948-01-18	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-2	1348	1466	58.1%	11.1%	30.8%	+8.8	10
1948-01-18	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 2-3	1466	1348	30.8%	11.1%	58.1%	-8.8	13
1948-02-01	Porto	L 3-5	1457	1645	49.0%	11.1%	39.9%	-20.7	13
1948-02-01	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-3	1645	1457	39.9%	11.1%	49.0%	+20.7	24
1948-02-01	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1328	1712	23.6%	10.9%	65.5%	-6.9	11
1948-02-01	@ Boavista	W 3-2	1712	1328	65.5%	10.9%	23.6%	+6.9	26
1948-02-01	Academica de Coimbra	W 7-0	1619	1196	88.0%	10.0%	1.9%	+4.0	25
1948-02-01	@ Estoril	L 0-7	1196	1619	1.9%	10.0%	88.0%	-4.0	4
1948-02-01	Benfica	L 3-6	1427	1768	28.4%	11.0%	60.7%	-16.8	14
1948-02-01	@ O Elvas	W 6-3	1768	1427	60.7%	11.0%	28.4%	+16.9	25
1948-02-01	Braga	W 5-2	1435	1376	75.4%	10.9%	13.7%	+9.2	12
1948-02-01	@ Olhanense	L 2-5	1376	1435	13.7%	10.9%	75.4%	-9.2	8
1948-02-01	Vitoria Setubal	W 8-1	1751	1356	87.6%	10.1%	2.3%	+3.9	27
1948-02-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-8	1356	1751	2.3%	10.1%	87.6%	-3.9	10
1948-02-01	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-2	1322	1360	67.2%	11.1%	21.8%	+6.4	11
1948-02-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1360	1322	21.8%	11.1%	67.2%	-6.4	11
1948-02-08	O Elvas	W 2-1	1192	1410	44.7%	11.1%	44.3%	+12.8	7
1948-02-08	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1410	1192	44.3%	11.1%	44.7%	-12.9	14
1948-02-08	Olhanense	W 4-0	1718	1444	85.1%	10.5%	4.4%	+5.4	29
1948-02-08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1444	1718	4.4%	10.5%	85.1%	-5.4	12
1948-02-08	Boavista	W 3-1	1785	1321	88.6%	9.9%	1.6%	+0.9	28
1948-02-08	@ Benfica	L 1-3	1321	1785	1.6%	9.9%	88.6%	-0.9	11
1948-02-08	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1354	1437	62.4%	11.1%	26.6%	+8.6	14
1948-02-08	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-1	1437	1354	26.6%	11.1%	62.4%	-8.6	13
1948-02-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-1	1665	1755	61.6%	11.1%	27.3%	+20.3	27
1948-02-08	@ Porto	L 1-4	1755	1665	27.3%	11.1%	61.6%	-20.3	27
1948-02-08	Braga	W 3-1	1328	1366	67.2%	11.1%	21.8%	+11.6	14
1948-02-08	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1366	1328	21.8%	11.1%	67.2%	-11.6	8
1948-02-08	Estoril	D 3-3	1353	1623	37.3%	11.0%	51.6%	+0.6	11
1948-02-08	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1623	1353	51.6%	11.0%	37.3%	-0.6	26
1948-02-15	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1428	1340	77.3%	10.9%	11.8%	+3.8	16
1948-02-15	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1340	1428	11.8%	10.9%	77.3%	-3.8	14
1948-02-15	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1320	1205	78.8%	10.9%	10.3%	+8.8	14
1948-02-15	@ Boavista	L 2-6	1205	1320	10.3%	10.9%	78.8%	-8.8	7
1948-02-15	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1355	1724	25.1%	10.9%	63.9%	-7.3	8
1948-02-15	@ Braga	W 3-2	1724	1355	63.9%	10.9%	25.1%	+7.3	32
1948-02-15	Porto	W 4-1	1622	1686	64.6%	11.1%	24.4%	+18.3	29
1948-02-15	@ Estoril	L 1-4	1686	1622	24.4%	11.1%	64.6%	-18.3	27
1948-02-15	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1398	1353	74.3%	11.0%	14.7%	+4.6	17
1948-02-15	@ O Elvas	L 1-2	1353	1398	14.7%	11.0%	74.3%	-4.6	11
1948-02-15	Benfica	D 3-3	1439	1786	27.6%	10.9%	61.4%	+1.5	13
1948-02-15	@ Olhanense	D 3-3	1786	1439	61.4%	10.9%	27.6%	-1.5	29
1948-02-15	Lusitano VRSA	W 12-0	1734	1362	87.2%	10.2%	2.6%	+9.0	30
1948-02-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-12	1362	1734	2.6%	10.2%	87.2%	-9.0	14
1948-02-22	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1731	1336	87.6%	10.1%	2.3%	+2.1	35
1948-02-22	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1336	1731	2.3%	10.1%	87.6%	-2.1	14
1948-02-22	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1329	1349	69.0%	11.0%	20.0%	+10.8	17
1948-02-22	@ Boavista	L 1-3	1349	1329	20.0%	11.0%	69.0%	-10.8	11
1948-02-22	Benfica	D 1-1	1347	1784	18.5%	10.8%	70.7%	+3.9	9
1948-02-22	@ Braga	D 1-1	1784	1347	70.7%	10.8%	18.5%	-3.9	30
1948-02-22	Lusitano VRSA	W 6-1	1641	1353	85.4%	10.5%	4.1%	+5.1	32
1948-02-22	@ Estoril	L 1-6	1353	1641	4.1%	10.5%	85.4%	-5.1	14
1948-02-22	Porto	L 2-4	1402	1667	38.0%	11.0%	50.9%	-17.4	17
1948-02-22	@ O Elvas	W 4-2	1667	1402	50.9%	11.0%	38.0%	+17.4	30
1948-02-22	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-2	1440	1197	84.2%	10.6%	5.2%	+3.6	16
1948-02-22	@ Olhanense	L 2-5	1197	1440	5.2%	10.6%	84.2%	-3.6	7
1948-02-22	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1743	1432	86.0%	10.4%	3.6%	+1.2	33
1948-02-22	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1432	1743	3.6%	10.4%	86.0%	-1.2	16
1948-02-29	Braga	W 4-3	1193	1351	53.0%	11.1%	35.9%	+9.9	10
1948-02-29	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 3-4	1351	1193	35.9%	11.1%	53.0%	-9.9	9
1948-02-29	Estoril	D 2-2	1431	1646	45.1%	11.1%	43.8%	-0.1	17
1948-02-29	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1646	1431	43.8%	11.1%	45.1%	+0.1	33
1948-02-29	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1780	1733	74.5%	11.0%	14.5%	+9.2	33
1948-02-29	@ Benfica	L 0-2	1733	1780	14.5%	11.0%	74.5%	-9.2	35
1948-02-29	O Elvas	W 2-1	1348	1385	67.3%	11.1%	21.6%	+6.7	17
1948-02-29	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1385	1348	21.6%	11.1%	67.3%	-6.7	17
1948-02-29	Boavista	W 5-1	1685	1340	86.7%	10.3%	3.0%	+3.0	33
1948-02-29	@ Porto	L 1-5	1340	1685	3.0%	10.3%	86.7%	-3.1	17
1948-02-29	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1334	1744	20.9%	10.9%	68.2%	-24.5	14
1948-02-29	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1744	1334	68.2%	10.9%	20.9%	+24.5	36
1948-02-29	Olhanense	W 3-1	1338	1444	59.7%	11.1%	29.2%	+15.3	14
1948-02-29	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-3	1444	1338	29.2%	11.1%	59.7%	-15.3	16
1948-03-07	Academica de Coimbra	W 7-1	1724	1203	89.2%	9.7%	1.1%	+1.7	38
1948-03-07	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-7	1203	1724	1.1%	9.7%	89.2%	-1.6	10
1948-03-07	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1789	1310	88.8%	9.8%	1.4%	+1.3	36
1948-03-07	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1310	1789	1.4%	9.8%	88.8%	-1.3	14
1948-03-07	Lusitano VRSA	W 2-1	1337	1355	69.1%	11.0%	19.9%	+6.2	20
1948-03-07	@ Boavista	L 1-2	1355	1337	19.9%	11.0%	69.1%	-6.2	17
1948-03-07	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1342	1353	69.7%	11.0%	19.3%	+10.4	12
1948-03-07	@ Braga	L 1-3	1353	1342	19.3%	11.0%	69.7%	-10.4	14
1948-03-07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1646	1769	57.6%	11.1%	31.3%	-16.4	33
1948-03-07	@ Estoril	W 2-1	1769	1646	31.3%	11.1%	57.6%	+16.4	39
1948-03-07	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-3	1378	1431	65.7%	11.1%	23.2%	+10.5	20
1948-03-07	@ O Elvas	L 3-5	1431	1378	23.2%	11.1%	65.7%	-10.5	17
1948-03-07	Porto	L 1-4	1428	1688	38.8%	11.1%	50.1%	-28.0	16
1948-03-07	@ Olhanense	W 4-1	1688	1428	50.1%	11.1%	38.8%	+28.0	36
1948-03-14	Benfica	L 2-6	1201	1791	8.6%	10.4%	80.9%	-7.4	10
1948-03-14	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1791	1201	80.9%	10.4%	8.6%	+7.4	39
1948-03-14	Boavista	W 3-1	1420	1343	76.6%	10.9%	12.5%	+6.9	20
1948-03-14	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1343	1420	12.5%	10.9%	76.6%	-6.9	20
1948-03-14	Olhanense	D 0-0	1349	1400	65.8%	11.1%	23.2%	-3.5	18
1948-03-14	@ Lusitano VRSA	D 0-0	1400	1349	23.2%	11.1%	65.8%	+3.5	17
1948-03-14	Braga	W 2-1	1716	1352	87.1%	10.2%	2.7%	+0.9	39
1948-03-14	@ Porto	L 1-2	1352	1716	2.7%	10.2%	87.1%	-0.9	12
1948-03-14	O Elvas	W 2-1	1785	1389	87.6%	10.1%	2.2%	+0.7	42
1948-03-14	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1389	1785	2.2%	10.1%	87.6%	-0.7	20
1948-03-14	Estoril	W 2-1	1308	1629	30.7%	11.0%	58.3%	+16.6	17
1948-03-14	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1629	1308	58.3%	11.0%	30.7%	-16.6	33
1948-03-14	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1343	1726	23.7%	10.9%	65.4%	-21.0	14
1948-03-14	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1726	1343	65.4%	10.9%	23.7%	+21.0	41
1948-03-28	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1194	1325	56.5%	11.1%	32.4%	-1.3	11
1948-03-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1325	1194	32.4%	11.1%	56.5%	+1.3	18
1948-03-28	Porto	W 3-0	1747	1717	73.2%	11.0%	15.8%	+14.4	44
1948-03-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1717	1747	15.8%	11.0%	73.2%	-14.4	39
1948-03-28	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1798	1322	88.7%	9.8%	1.4%	+1.3	42
1948-03-28	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1322	1798	1.4%	9.8%	88.7%	-1.3	14
1948-03-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1336	1786	17.4%	10.8%	71.8%	+20.4	23
1948-03-28	@ Boavista	L 1-2	1786	1336	71.8%	10.8%	17.4%	-20.4	42
1948-03-28	Lusitano VRSA	W 7-1	1351	1345	71.2%	11.0%	17.8%	+25.4	15
1948-03-28	@ Braga	L 1-7	1345	1351	17.8%	11.0%	71.2%	-25.4	18
1948-03-28	Estoril	W 4-1	1388	1613	43.7%	11.1%	45.3%	+32.1	23
1948-03-28	@ O Elvas	L 1-4	1613	1388	45.3%	11.1%	43.7%	-32.1	33
1948-03-28	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1404	1427	68.6%	11.0%	20.3%	-19.5	17
1948-03-28	@ Olhanense	W 2-1	1427	1404	20.3%	11.0%	68.6%	+19.5	23
1948-04-04	Braga	W 4-3	1447	1376	76.1%	10.9%	13.0%	+3.8	26
1948-04-04	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1376	1447	13.0%	10.9%	76.1%	-3.8	15
1948-04-04	Boavista	W 4-0	1581	1356	83.6%	10.6%	5.8%	+7.1	36
1948-04-04	@ Estoril	L 0-4	1356	1581	5.8%	10.6%	83.6%	-7.1	23
1948-04-04	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1320	1761	18.1%	10.8%	71.1%	+20.2	21
1948-04-04	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1761	1320	71.1%	10.8%	18.1%	-20.2	44
1948-04-04	Benfica	L 0-2	1702	1799	60.7%	11.1%	28.2%	-34.6	39
1948-04-04	@ Porto	W 2-0	1799	1702	28.2%	11.1%	60.7%	+34.6	45
1948-04-04	Olhanense	W 3-2	1766	1384	87.4%	10.2%	2.5%	+0.8	45
1948-04-04	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1384	1766	2.5%	10.2%	87.4%	-0.8	17
1948-04-04	O Elvas	W 7-1	1326	1420	61.1%	11.1%	27.8%	+38.7	21
1948-04-04	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-7	1420	1326	27.8%	11.1%	61.1%	-38.6	23
1948-04-04	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1320	1193	79.5%	10.8%	9.7%	+7.5	17
1948-04-04	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-4	1193	1320	9.7%	10.8%	79.5%	-7.5	11
1948-04-11	Porto	L 0-1	1185	1668	14.8%	10.7%	74.4%	-4.9	11
1948-04-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1668	1185	74.4%	10.7%	14.8%	+4.9	42
1948-04-11	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1741	1450	85.5%	10.5%	4.0%	-7.1	45
1948-04-11	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1450	1741	4.0%	10.5%	85.5%	+7.1	27
1948-04-11	Lusitano VRSA	W 6-1	1834	1340	88.9%	9.8%	1.3%	+1.6	48
1948-04-11	@ Benfica	L 1-6	1340	1834	1.3%	9.8%	88.9%	-1.6	21
1948-04-11	O Elvas	W 2-0	1349	1381	67.8%	11.1%	21.2%	+13.1	26
1948-04-11	@ Boavista	L 0-2	1381	1349	21.2%	11.1%	67.8%	-13.1	23
1948-04-11	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1373	1766	22.6%	10.9%	66.6%	-12.0	15
1948-04-11	@ Braga	W 3-1	1766	1373	66.6%	10.9%	22.6%	+12.0	48
1948-04-11	Estoril	L 1-4	1384	1588	46.6%	11.1%	42.3%	-33.0	17
1948-04-11	@ Olhanense	W 4-1	1588	1384	42.3%	11.1%	46.6%	+33.0	39
1948-04-11	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1328	1365	67.3%	11.1%	21.7%	-3.4	18
1948-04-11	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1365	1328	21.7%	11.1%	67.3%	+3.4	22
1948-04-18	Benfica	L 2-4	1458	1836	24.2%	10.9%	64.9%	-11.5	27
1948-04-18	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-2	1836	1458	64.9%	10.9%	24.2%	+11.5	51
1948-04-18	Braga	W 6-1	1621	1361	84.7%	10.5%	4.8%	+5.9	42
1948-04-18	@ Estoril	L 1-6	1361	1621	4.8%	10.5%	84.7%	-5.9	15
1948-04-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-1	1338	1180	81.0%	10.8%	8.2%	+8.3	24
1948-04-18	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-5	1180	1338	8.2%	10.8%	81.0%	-8.3	11
1948-04-18	Olhanense	W 3-1	1368	1351	72.2%	11.0%	16.8%	+9.1	26
1948-04-18	@ O Elvas	L 1-3	1351	1368	16.8%	11.0%	72.2%	-9.1	17
1948-04-18	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-2	1673	1325	86.8%	10.3%	2.9%	+2.0	45
1948-04-18	@ Porto	L 2-5	1325	1673	2.9%	10.3%	86.8%	-2.0	18
1948-04-18	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 4-4	1778	1734	74.3%	11.0%	14.7%	-2.5	49
1948-04-18	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 4-4	1734	1778	14.7%	11.0%	74.3%	+2.5	46
1948-04-18	Boavista	W 2-1	1368	1363	71.2%	11.0%	17.8%	+5.6	25
1948-04-18	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1363	1368	17.8%	11.0%	71.2%	-5.5	26
1948-04-25	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1172	1446	36.8%	11.0%	52.2%	-10.9	11
1948-04-25	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1446	1172	52.2%	11.0%	36.8%	+10.9	30
1948-04-25	Estoril	L 2-3	1736	1627	78.5%	10.9%	10.6%	-21.3	46
1948-04-25	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-2	1627	1736	10.6%	10.9%	78.5%	+21.3	45
1948-04-25	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1847	1776	76.2%	10.9%	12.9%	-53.2	51
1948-04-25	@ Benfica	W 4-1	1776	1847	12.9%	10.9%	76.2%	+53.2	52
1948-04-25	O Elvas	W 4-1	1355	1377	68.7%	11.0%	20.3%	+15.4	18
1948-04-25	@ Braga	L 1-4	1377	1355	20.3%	11.0%	68.7%	-15.4	26
1948-04-25	Boavista	W 5-0	1342	1357	69.3%	11.0%	19.6%	+28.5	20
1948-04-25	@ Olhanense	L 0-5	1357	1342	19.6%	11.0%	69.3%	-28.5	26
1948-04-25	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1675	1374	85.8%	10.4%	3.8%	+2.1	48
1948-04-25	@ Porto	L 1-3	1374	1675	3.8%	10.4%	85.8%	-2.1	25
1948-04-25	Lusitano VRSA	W 2-0	1322	1347	68.5%	11.0%	20.4%	+12.7	21
1948-04-25	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1347	1322	20.4%	11.0%	68.5%	-12.7	24
1948-05-02	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1457	1335	79.2%	10.8%	10.0%	+9.2	33
1948-05-02	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1335	1457	10.0%	10.8%	79.2%	-9.2	21
1948-05-02	Braga	W 4-0	1328	1370	66.8%	11.1%	22.1%	+25.9	29
1948-05-02	@ Boavista	L 0-4	1370	1328	22.1%	11.1%	66.8%	-25.9	18
1948-05-02	Porto	L 0-1	1334	1677	28.1%	11.0%	60.9%	-9.0	24
1948-05-02	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 1-0	1677	1334	60.9%	11.0%	28.1%	+9.0	51
1948-05-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1362	1715	26.9%	10.9%	62.1%	+17.7	29
1948-05-02	@ O Elvas	L 1-2	1715	1362	62.1%	10.9%	26.9%	-17.6	46
1948-05-02	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-1	1829	1161	90.5%	9.0%	0.5%	+0.6	55
1948-05-02	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-6	1161	1829	0.5%	9.0%	90.5%	-0.6	11
1948-05-02	Olhanense	W 3-1	1372	1370	70.9%	11.0%	18.1%	+9.8	28
1948-05-02	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1370	1372	18.1%	11.0%	70.9%	-9.8	20
1948-05-06	Benfica	L 0-2	1648	1794	54.7%	11.1%	34.2%	-31.2	45
1948-05-06	@ Estoril	W 2-0	1794	1648	34.2%	11.1%	54.7%	+31.2	54
1948-05-09	Estoril	L 1-5	1160	1617	16.8%	10.8%	72.4%	-16.6	11
1948-05-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 5-1	1617	1160	72.4%	10.8%	16.8%	+16.6	48
1948-05-09	Boavista	W 7-0	1697	1354	86.7%	10.3%	3.0%	+6.3	49
1948-05-09	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-7	1354	1697	3.0%	10.3%	86.7%	-6.3	29
1948-05-09	O Elvas	L 1-2	1825	1380	88.3%	10.0%	1.7%	-25.3	54
1948-05-09	@ Benfica	W 2-1	1380	1825	1.7%	10.0%	88.3%	+25.3	32
1948-05-09	Olhanense	D 0-0	1344	1360	69.3%	11.0%	19.7%	-4.2	19
1948-05-09	@ Braga	D 0-0	1360	1344	19.7%	11.0%	69.3%	+4.2	21
1948-05-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-1	1325	1382	65.3%	11.1%	23.7%	-19.7	24
1948-05-09	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 1-0	1382	1325	23.7%	11.1%	65.3%	+19.7	31
1948-05-09	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1686	1466	83.4%	10.6%	5.9%	-6.0	52
1948-05-09	@ Porto	D 1-1	1466	1686	5.9%	10.6%	83.4%	+6.0	34
1948-05-09	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1326	1830	13.4%	10.7%	76.0%	+22.9	24
1948-05-09	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1830	1326	76.0%	10.7%	13.4%	-22.9	55
1948-05-16	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-1	1472	1305	81.4%	10.8%	7.9%	+4.4	37
1948-05-16	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1305	1472	7.9%	10.8%	81.4%	-4.4	24
1948-05-16	Benfica	L 0-1	1348	1800	17.3%	10.8%	72.0%	-5.7	29
1948-05-16	@ Boavista	W 1-0	1800	1348	72.0%	10.8%	17.3%	+5.7	57
1948-05-16	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1340	1401	64.8%	11.1%	24.1%	+7.9	22
1948-05-16	@ Braga	L 0-1	1401	1340	24.1%	11.1%	64.8%	-7.9	31
1948-05-16	Vitoria Setubal	W 4-2	1633	1349	85.4%	10.5%	4.2%	+2.1	51
1948-05-16	@ Estoril	L 2-4	1349	1633	4.2%	10.5%	85.4%	-2.1	24
1948-05-16	Academica de Coimbra	W 12-1	1405	1144	84.7%	10.5%	4.7%	+12.4	35
1948-05-16	@ O Elvas	L 1-12	1144	1405	4.7%	10.5%	84.7%	-12.4	11
1948-05-16	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1364	1704	28.5%	11.0%	60.5%	+2.3	22
1948-05-16	@ Olhanense	D 1-1	1704	1364	60.5%	11.0%	28.5%	-2.3	50
1948-05-16	Porto	W 5-2	1807	1680	79.5%	10.8%	9.7%	+6.5	58
1948-05-16	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1680	1807	9.7%	10.8%	79.5%	-6.6	52
1948-05-30	Boavista	W 1-0	1131	1342	45.6%	11.1%	43.3%	+13.4	14
1948-05-30	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1342	1131	43.3%	11.1%	45.6%	-13.4	29
1948-05-30	Braga	W 4-0	1701	1348	86.9%	10.3%	2.9%	+3.5	53
1948-05-30	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1348	1701	2.9%	10.3%	86.9%	-3.5	22
1948-05-30	Olhanense	W 2-0	1805	1367	88.2%	10.0%	1.8%	+1.1	60
1948-05-30	@ Benfica	L 0-2	1367	1805	1.8%	10.0%	88.2%	-1.1	22
1948-05-30	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1301	1813	12.8%	10.6%	76.5%	-9.9	24
1948-05-30	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 4-1	1813	1301	76.5%	10.6%	12.8%	+9.9	61
1948-05-30	Estoril	D 2-2	1673	1636	73.8%	11.0%	15.2%	-3.3	53
1948-05-30	@ Porto	D 2-2	1636	1673	15.2%	11.0%	73.8%	+3.3	52
1948-05-30	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-2	1393	1477	62.3%	11.1%	26.6%	+12.5	34
1948-05-30	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-4	1477	1393	26.6%	11.1%	62.3%	-12.5	37
1948-05-30	O Elvas	W 2-0	1347	1417	63.8%	11.1%	25.2%	+15.4	27
1948-05-30	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1417	1347	25.2%	11.1%	63.8%	-15.4	35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1948-05-09	1.72%	O Elvas	1380	2	@ Benfica	1825	1
2	1948-01-18	6.82%	Estoril	1597	3	@ Benfica	1790	2
3	1948-04-25	10.61%	Estoril	1627	3	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1736	2
4	1948-04-25	12.91%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1776	4	@ Benfica	1847	1
5	1948-05-09	13.38%	@ Vitoria Setubal	1326	1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1830	0
6	1948-01-11	16.16%	Benfica	1754	3	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1780	1
7	1947-11-16	17.00%	Boavista	1360	2	@ Vitoria Setubal	1375	0
8	1948-03-28	17.39%	@ Boavista	1336	2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1786	1
9	1948-04-04	18.12%	@ Lusitano VRSA	1320	2	Os Belenenses (1st)	1761	1
10	1948-03-28	20.35%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1427	2	@ Olhanense	1404	1
11	1947-12-21	20.92%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1692	2	@ Porto	1663	0
12	1947-12-28	21.33%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1425	3	@ Braga	1392	1
13	1947-12-28	23.15%	Vitoria Setubal	1302	4	@ Academica de Coimbra	1251	1
14	1948-05-09	23.66%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1382	1	@ Lusitano VRSA	1325	0
15	1948-05-02	26.93%	@ O Elvas	1362	2	Os Belenenses (1st)	1715	1
16	1948-04-04	28.19%	Benfica	1799	2	@ Porto	1702	0
17	1948-03-14	30.72%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1308	2	Estoril	1629	1
18	1948-03-07	31.34%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1769	2	@ Estoril	1646	1
19	1948-05-06	34.24%	Benfica	1794	2	@ Estoril	1648	0
20	1948-01-04	36.14%	@ Vitoria Setubal	1339	3	Porto	1618	2
21	1947-11-30	37.48%	Porto	1571	3	@ Boavista	1401	0
22	1947-12-14	39.23%	Porto	1621	3	@ Braga	1439	0
23	1948-02-01	39.87%	Porto	1645	5	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1457	3
24	1948-01-04	40.86%	@ Braga	1358	5	Estoril	1603	2
25	1947-12-28	42.23%	Estoril	1565	4	@ Boavista	1361	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1947-11-30	53.76	@ O Elvas	7	1346	61.39%	Lusitano VRSA	0	1437	27.53%
2	1948-04-25	53.24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1776	12.91%	@ Benfica	1	1847	76.16%
3	1947-12-28	45.81	Vitoria Setubal	4	1302	23.15%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1251	65.79%
4	1947-11-30	42.82	Porto	3	1571	37.48%	@ Boavista	0	1401	51.43%
5	1947-12-14	41.47	Porto	3	1621	39.23%	@ Braga	0	1439	49.68%
6	1947-11-16	41.01	Boavista	2	1360	17.00%	@ Vitoria Setubal	0	1375	72.00%
7	1947-12-21	38.70	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1692	20.92%	@ Porto	0	1663	68.03%
8	1948-04-04	38.65	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1326	61.13%	O Elvas	1	1420	27.79%
9	1948-01-11	36.78	Porto	3	1604	45.43%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1378	43.50%
10	1948-01-11	35.94	Benfica	3	1754	16.16%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	1780	72.85%
11	1948-04-04	34.55	Benfica	2	1799	28.19%	@ Porto	0	1702	60.73%
12	1947-12-28	33.31	Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	1425	21.33%	@ Braga	1	1392	67.62%
13	1947-12-28	33.03	Estoril	4	1565	42.23%	@ Boavista	1	1361	46.69%
14	1948-04-11	33.01	Estoril	4	1588	42.28%	@ Olhanense	1	1384	46.64%
15	1948-03-28	32.13	@ O Elvas	4	1388	43.67%	Estoril	1	1613	45.26%
16	1948-05-06	31.22	Benfica	2	1794	34.24%	@ Estoril	0	1648	54.67%
17	1948-01-01	29.80	Benfica	7	1722	58.44%	@ Lusitano VRSA	2	1400	30.57%
18	1948-01-04	29.39	@ Braga	5	1358	40.86%	Estoril	2	1603	48.09%
19	1948-04-25	28.50	@ Olhanense	5	1342	69.34%	Boavista	0	1357	19.63%
20	1947-12-07	28.43	Os Belenenses (1st)	4	1660	64.56%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1285	24.52%
21	1948-03-07	28.01	Porto	4	1688	50.12%	@ Olhanense	1	1428	38.84%
22	1948-05-02	25.90	@ Boavista	4	1328	66.81%	Braga	0	1370	22.14%
23	1948-03-28	25.42	@ Braga	7	1351	71.22%	Lusitano VRSA	1	1345	17.77%
24	1948-05-09	25.27	O Elvas	2	1380	1.72%	@ Benfica	1	1825	88.32%
25	1947-12-21	24.99	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	10	1400	63.02%	Olhanense	4	1477	25.90%