2014 NWSL Season

108 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Seattle Reign

27.50% chance to win NWSL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Seattle Reign

13.36 points above expected

54 points · 40.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Boston Breakers

8.81 points below expected

20 points · 28.81 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Seattle Reign Conference	16	2	6	54	.750	50	20	+30	40.64	+13.36
2	FC Kansas City Playoffs	12	7	5	41	.569	39	32	+7	36.78	+4.22
3	Portland Thorns Playoffs	10	8	6	36	.500	39	35	+4	35.90	+0.10
4	Washington Spirit Playoffs	10	9	5	35	.486	36	43	-7	31.15	+3.85
5	Chicago Red Stars	9	7	8	35	.486	32	26	+6	35.08	-0.08
6	Sky Blue FC	9	8	7	34	.472	30	37	-7	31.18	+2.82
7	Western New York Flash	8	12	4	28	.389	42	38	+4	35.64	-7.64
8	Boston Breakers	6	16	2	20	.278	37	53	-16	28.81	-8.81
9	Houston Dash	5	16	3	18	.250	23	44	-21	21.86	-3.86

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Seattle Reign	54	40.64	+13.36
2	FC Kansas City	41	36.78	+4.22
3	Washington Spirit	35	31.15	+3.85
4	Sky Blue FC	34	31.18	+2.82
5	Portland Thorns	36	35.90	+0.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Boston Breakers	20	28.81	-8.81
2	Western New York Flash	28	35.64	-7.64
3	Houston Dash	18	21.86	-3.86
4	Chicago Red Stars	35	35.08	-0.08
5	Portland Thorns	36	35.90	+0.10

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Seattle Reign	7	Apr 14 – May 15	1 in 473
2	FC Kansas City	7	May 26 – Jul 7	1 in 236
3	Houston Dash	3	Jun 1 – Jun 12	1 in 118
4	Sky Blue FC	5	Aug 1 – Aug 21	1 in 111
5	Chicago Red Stars	5	May 12 – May 29	1 in 64

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Boston Breakers	4	May 4 – May 26	1 in 47
2	Portland Thorns	3	May 25 – Jun 8	1 in 44
3	Sky Blue FC	3	May 29 – Jun 9	1 in 29
4	Houston Dash	6	Jul 31 – Aug 21	1 in 26
5	Washington Spirit	3	Jun 12 – Jun 22	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Seattle Reign	16	Apr 14 – Jul 7	1 in 290
2	FC Kansas City	9	May 19 – Jul 7	1 in 22
3	Portland Thorns	6	Jul 4 – Jul 24	1 in 14
4	Houston Dash	3	Jun 1 – Jun 12	1 in 13
5	Chicago Red Stars	6	May 8 – May 29	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Red Stars	7	Jun 5 – Jul 10	1 in 32
2	Western New York Flash	5	May 18 – Jun 5	1 in 14
3	Sky Blue FC	5	May 29 – Jun 22	1 in 12
4	Boston Breakers	7	Jun 20 – Jul 20	1 in 9
5	Portland Thorns	4	Jun 26 – Jul 10	1 in 7

Playoff Bracket

NHL Playoffs

Semifinals

FC Kansas City 1

Portland Thorns 0

1 games · Aug 23–Aug 23

Seattle Reign 1

Washington Spirit 0

1 games · Aug 25–Aug 25

Stanley Cup Final

FC Kansas City 1

Seattle Reign 0

1 games · Aug 31–Aug 31

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	Breakers	Stars	City	Dash	Thorns	Reign	FC	Spirit	Flash
Boston Breakers	—	0 (3.7 exp.)	0 (3.1 exp.)	3 (5.2 exp.)	6 (3.1 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)	4 (3.8 exp.)	4 (3.8 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)
Chicago Red Stars	9 (4.5 exp.)	—	3 (3.7 exp.)	7 (5.8 exp.)	3 (4.2 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	5 (4.4 exp.)	0 (4.9 exp.)	4 (4.3 exp.)
FC Kansas City	9 (5.2 exp.)	6 (4.5 exp.)	—	7 (5.5 exp.)	3 (4.3 exp.)	2 (3.6 exp.)	7 (5.0 exp.)	3 (4.7 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)
Houston Dash	6 (3.1 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	—	0 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)
Portland Thorns	3 (5.2 exp.)	3 (4.0 exp.)	6 (3.9 exp.)	9 (5.6 exp.)	—	3 (3.6 exp.)	1 (4.9 exp.)	7 (4.4 exp.)	4 (4.4 exp.)
Seattle Reign	9 (5.3 exp.)	4 (5.1 exp.)	5 (4.7 exp.)	9 (6.3 exp.)	6 (4.7 exp.)	—	7 (4.9 exp.)	7 (5.1 exp.)	7 (4.7 exp.)
Sky Blue FC	4 (4.4 exp.)	2 (3.8 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	6 (5.5 exp.)	7 (3.4 exp.)	1 (3.4 exp.)	—	7 (3.9 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)
Washington Spirit	4 (4.4 exp.)	9 (3.4 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	7 (5.0 exp.)	1 (3.8 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	1 (4.3 exp.)	—	6 (3.5 exp.)
Western New York Flash	6 (5.2 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)	3 (5.6 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	1 (3.6 exp.)	3 (4.7 exp.)	3 (4.7 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.85%	10.19%	5.56%	0.93%	0.46%	1.39%	20.37%
1	10.19%	12.96%	7.87%	4.17%	2.31%	0.93%	38.43%
2	5.56%	7.87%	3.70%	3.70%	0.93%	—	21.76%
3	0.93%	4.17%	3.70%	2.78%	0.46%	0.46%	12.50%
4	0.46%	2.31%	0.93%	0.46%	—	—	4.17%
5+	1.39%	0.93%	—	0.46%	—	—	2.78%
Total	20.37%	38.43%	21.76%	12.50%	4.17%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.52	1.52	+0.00
SD	1.29	1.29	1.84
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.17%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
1	4.17%	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
2	8.33%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	20.83%
3	—	—	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	16.67%
4	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	8.33%	4.17%	100%

Boston Breakers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	2.21	-0.67
SD	1.28	1.38	1.71
CV	0.83	0.63	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	37.50%
2	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	20.83%
3	—	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	50.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Chicago Red Stars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.08	+0.25
SD	1.13	0.88	1.33
CV	0.85	0.81	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	16.67%	16.67%	12.50%	8.33%	—	4.17%	58.33%
2	8.33%	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	12.50%	—	4.17%	100%

FC Kansas City — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	1.33	+0.29
SD	1.01	1.58	2.12
CV	0.62	1.18	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	1	0	-6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	29.17%	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	41.67%
1	—	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	12.50%	—	29.17%
2	—	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	45.83%	16.67%	12.50%	16.67%	—	100%

Houston Dash — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.96	1.83	-0.88
SD	1.00	1.27	1.60
CV	1.04	0.69	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
1	16.67%	20.83%	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	45.83%
2	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	12.50%
Total	20.83%	50.00%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	100%

Portland Thorns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	1.46	+0.17
SD	1.97	1.44	2.55
CV	1.21	0.99	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
1	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	20.83%
2	12.50%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	4.17%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	29.17%	58.33%	12.50%	—	—	—	100%

Seattle Reign — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.83	+1.25
SD	1.32	0.64	1.42
CV	0.63	0.76	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	—	12.50%	4.17%	—	4.17%	25.00%
1	20.83%	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	45.83%
2	—	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	12.50%
3	—	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	29.17%	16.67%	—	4.17%	100%

Sky Blue FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.54	-0.29
SD	1.11	1.28	1.68
CV	0.89	0.83	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	12.50%
1	16.67%	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	—	4.17%	50.00%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	4.17%	—	12.50%
3	—	4.17%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	29.17%	29.17%	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	100%

Washington Spirit — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.79	-0.29
SD	1.02	1.41	1.60
CV	0.68	0.79	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	8.33%	20.83%	—	—	—	29.17%
2	8.33%	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	33.33%
3	—	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	8.33%
4	—	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	8.33%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	12.50%	41.67%	25.00%	16.67%	4.17%	—	100%

Western New York Flash — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.58	+0.17
SD	1.33	1.06	1.66
CV	0.76	0.67	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.49	+9.9
Allowed	0.73	-9.4
Differential	0.83	+6.6

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Reign	1618	54	40.64	+13.36	98.73%	13	30	36	41	45	51	66
FC Kansas City	1547	41	36.78	+4.22	77.11%	13	26	32	37	41	47	64
Chicago Red Stars	1531	35	35.08	-0.08	52.86%	9	25	31	35	39	46	62
Portland Thorns	1530	36	35.90	+0.10	53.88%	10	26	32	36	40	46	65
Sky Blue FC	1506	34	31.18	+2.82	70.54%	7	21	27	31	35	42	59
Western New York Flash	1495	28	35.64	-7.64	12.85%	8	25	31	36	40	46	62
Washington Spirit	1480	35	31.15	+3.85	75.74%	3	21	27	31	35	42	59
Boston Breakers	1439	20	28.81	-8.81	8.65%	4	19	25	29	33	39	55
Houston Dash	1354	18	21.86	-3.86	29.07%	3	13	18	22	26	32	49

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Seattle Reign	36.94%	21.27%	14.50%	10.29%	7.17%	4.87%	3.04%	1.49%	0.43%
FC Kansas City	16.37%	17.55%	16.20%	14.34%	12.17%	9.86%	7.31%	4.64%	1.57%
Portland Thorns	13.32%	15.73%	15.62%	14.46%	13.04%	11.06%	8.73%	5.85%	2.19%
Western New York Flash	12.62%	14.96%	15.14%	14.63%	13.58%	11.48%	9.13%	6.19%	2.28%
Chicago Red Stars	11.05%	13.83%	14.65%	14.49%	13.55%	12.45%	10.05%	7.19%	2.75%
Sky Blue FC	3.82%	6.43%	8.78%	11.26%	13.49%	15.56%	16.86%	15.74%	8.04%
Washington Spirit	3.92%	6.35%	8.75%	11.21%	13.45%	15.40%	16.71%	15.90%	8.30%
Boston Breakers	1.84%	3.53%	5.62%	7.89%	10.70%	14.25%	18.67%	23.22%	14.28%
Houston Dash	0.11%	0.35%	0.75%	1.44%	2.84%	5.08%	9.50%	19.78%	60.15%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Reign	36.94%	21.27%	14.50%	10.29%	17.00%
FC Kansas City	16.37%	17.55%	16.20%	14.34%	35.55%
Portland Thorns	13.32%	15.73%	15.62%	14.46%	40.87%
Western New York Flash	12.62%	14.96%	15.14%	14.63%	42.66%
Chicago Red Stars	11.05%	13.83%	14.65%	14.49%	45.98%
Washington Spirit	3.92%	6.35%	8.75%	11.21%	69.76%
Sky Blue FC	3.82%	6.43%	8.78%	11.26%	69.70%
Boston Breakers	1.84%	3.53%	5.62%	7.89%	81.12%
Houston Dash	0.11%	0.35%	0.75%	1.44%	97.36%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.19%

Fortress

44.44%21.30%34.26%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 35.51 Elo pts.

195 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.07 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.18+2

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.99 · As Expected: 4.99 to 6.86 · Elevated: 6.86 to 9.35 · High Variance: 9.35 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.47 · Close: 1.47 to 1.98 · Off Target: 1.98 to 2.59 · Well Off Target: 2.59 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.45 · As Expected: 0.45 to 1.08 · Several Outliers: 1.08 to 1.98 · Many Outliers: 1.98 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.02 · As Expected: 1.02 to 1.7 · More Than Expected: 1.7 to 2.72 · Far More Than Expected: 2.72 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.40 points

As Expected

06.2416

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.67

Pinpoint

01.724

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 94.44%

98.73%

Seattle Reign

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

8.65%

Boston Breakers

05.56%50

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 9

As Expected

00.99

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 4

Fewer Than Expected

01.44

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.48

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

57%

Even

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Lopsided

50%79%100%

Close Games

Expected

66%

Nail-Biters

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

13%

Occasional

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.62

Predictable

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.24

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.05

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.12

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Chalk Held

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.32 · Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.81

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.98

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.059

Well Within Noise

00.1600.4

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals
Seattle Reign	41.50%	41.50%	27.50%
FC Kansas City	32.23%	32.23%	16.73%
Portland Thorns	29.57%	29.57%	14.44%
Chicago Red Stars	27.01%	27.01%	13.21%
Western New York Flash	28.67%	28.67%	12.33%
Sky Blue FC	15.15%	15.15%	6.41%
Washington Spirit	15.12%	15.12%	5.92%
Boston Breakers	9.44%	9.44%	3.16%
Houston Dash	1.32%	1.32%	0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Breakers	Chicago Red Stars	FC Kansas City	Houston Dash	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Sky Blue FC	Washington Spirit	Western New York Flash
Boston Breakers		37.5%0.39%	36.2%0.52%	60.0%<0.01%	35.5%0.47%	24.2%1.08%	42.2%0.18%	44.8%0.16%	39.1%0.34%
Chicago Red Stars	62.5%0.39%		46.7%2.47%	68.9%0.04%	50.8%1.98%	37.3%5.01%	55.3%0.86%	56.1%0.78%	56.4%1.70%
FC Kansas City	63.8%0.52%	53.3%2.47%		73.2%0.06%	53.0%2.66%	39.3%6.70%	58.3%1.07%	59.5%0.98%	57.2%2.26%
Houston Dash	40.0%<0.01%	31.1%0.04%	26.8%0.06%		31.5%0.05%	12.9%0.09%	32.1%0.01%	30.0%0.01%	29.5%0.04%
Portland Thorns	64.5%0.47%	49.2%1.98%	47.0%2.66%	68.5%0.05%		37.7%5.64%	56.6%0.90%	55.9%0.85%	55.6%1.89%
Seattle Reign	75.8%1.08%	62.7%5.01%	60.7%6.70%	87.1%0.09%	62.3%5.64%		65.5%2.24%	70.3%2.10%	67.7%4.63%
Sky Blue FC	57.8%0.18%	44.7%0.86%	41.7%1.07%	67.9%0.01%	43.4%0.90%	34.5%2.24%		52.2%0.35%	51.2%0.78%
Washington Spirit	55.2%0.16%	43.9%0.78%	40.5%0.98%	70.0%0.01%	44.1%0.85%	29.7%2.10%	47.8%0.35%		48.3%0.69%
Western New York Flash	60.9%0.34%	43.6%1.70%	42.8%2.26%	70.5%0.04%	44.4%1.89%	32.3%4.63%	48.8%0.78%	51.7%0.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Boston Breakers	Chicago Red Stars	FC Kansas City	Houston Dash	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Sky Blue FC	Washington Spirit	Western New York Flash
Boston Breakers		35.5%1.19%	34.2%1.65%	54.5%0.04%	35.1%1.45%	24.2%2.66%	37.6%0.54%	45.1%0.55%	40.0%1.35%
Chicago Red Stars	64.5%1.19%		48.3%5.24%	75.5%0.14%	50.4%4.72%	35.8%7.03%	54.4%2.03%	58.7%2.09%	56.5%4.57%
FC Kansas City	65.8%1.65%	51.7%5.24%		78.6%0.21%	53.1%5.97%	39.0%8.07%	58.1%2.74%	61.3%2.70%	56.8%5.65%
Houston Dash	45.5%0.04%	24.5%0.14%	21.4%0.21%		23.9%0.20%	16.9%0.43%	34.6%0.06%	34.7%0.06%	26.6%0.18%
Portland Thorns	64.9%1.45%	49.6%4.72%	46.9%5.97%	76.1%0.20%		36.4%7.46%	55.6%2.39%	58.8%2.38%	55.3%4.99%
Seattle Reign	75.8%2.66%	64.2%7.03%	61.0%8.07%	83.1%0.43%	63.6%7.46%		68.9%4.23%	71.4%4.15%	67.8%7.47%
Sky Blue FC	62.4%0.54%	45.6%2.03%	41.9%2.74%	65.4%0.06%	44.4%2.39%	31.1%4.23%		51.6%0.94%	49.5%2.21%
Washington Spirit	54.9%0.55%	41.3%2.09%	38.7%2.70%	65.3%0.06%	41.2%2.38%	28.6%4.15%	48.4%0.94%		46.6%2.26%
Western New York Flash	60.0%1.35%	43.5%4.57%	43.2%5.65%	73.4%0.18%	44.7%4.99%	32.2%7.47%	50.5%2.21%	53.4%2.26%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals	Actual Outcome
Seattle Reign	50.00%	36.55%	Won Semifinals
FC Kansas City	50.00%	28.88%	Won Semifinals
Portland Thorns	50.00%	21.12%	Eliminated in Semifinals
Washington Spirit	50.00%	13.45%	Eliminated in Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	FC Kansas City	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
FC Kansas City			35.2%21.13%	63.3%7.75%
Portland Thorns			33.9%15.42%	60.9%5.70%
Seattle Reign	64.8%21.13%	66.1%15.42%
Washington Spirit	36.7%7.75%	39.1%5.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	FC Kansas City	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
FC Kansas City		57.8%50.00%
Portland Thorns	42.2%50.00%
Seattle Reign				73.1%50.00%
Washington Spirit			26.9%50.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Seattle Reign 36.55% chance to win

Finals

vs. FC Kansas City

Matchup

57.31%

Win Prob

64.82%

→

Semifinals

vs. Washington Spirit

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.10%

FC Kansas City 28.88% chance to win

Finals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

60.24%

Win Prob

35.18%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.75%

Portland Thorns 21.12% chance to win

Finals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

60.05%

Win Prob

33.85%

→

Semifinals

vs. FC Kansas City

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.25%

Washington Spirit 13.45% chance to win

Finals

vs. FC Kansas City

Matchup

56.09%

Win Prob

36.69%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.90%

Filter by Team:

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2014-04-14	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-3	44.8	1515.28	1493.96	34.80%	26.36%	38.84%	-0.07	-15.19	0
2014-04-21	Houston Dash	L 2-3	62.2	1500.09	1393.23	56.27%	22.85%	20.88%	+0.73	-12.70	0
2014-04-28	Sky Blue FC	W 3-2	60.9	1487.39	1514.57	38.00%	26.39%	35.61%	+0.04	+8.93	3
2014-05-04	@ Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	49.3	1496.32	1492.21	32.49%	26.21%	41.29%	-0.16	-8.32	3
2014-05-16	Chicago Red Stars	L 1-3	53.3	1488.00	1506.78	39.20%	26.35%	34.45%	+0.09	-13.56	3
2014-05-19	Chicago Red Stars	L 1-4	49.6	1474.44	1520.34	35.33%	26.38%	38.29%	-0.05	-15.36	3
2014-05-26	FC Kansas City	L 0-2	45.5	1459.08	1511.57	34.42%	26.35%	39.24%	-0.09	-12.31	3
2014-05-29	Portland Thorns	W 4-1	51.9	1446.77	1538.38	29.42%	25.80%	44.77%	-0.29	+18.38	6
2014-06-02	Washington Spirit	L 2-3	60.0	1465.15	1486.65	38.81%	26.36%	34.82%	+0.07	-9.51	6
2014-06-08	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-2	42.2	1455.64	1531.93	23.55%	24.13%	52.32%	-0.57	-8.91	6
2014-06-12	Washington Spirit	W 2-0	46.7	1446.73	1507.78	33.26%	26.28%	40.46%	-0.13	+13.88	9
2014-06-20	Seattle Reign	L 0-2	45.3	1460.61	1587.60	25.53%	24.85%	49.62%	-0.47	-9.61	9
2014-06-22	@ Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	58.7	1451.00	1457.34	31.16%	26.07%	42.77%	-0.21	+0.55	10
2014-06-28	@ Western New York Flash	L 1-2	50.7	1451.55	1524.97	23.82%	24.24%	51.94%	-0.56	-6.37	10
2014-07-03	@ Washington Spirit	T 3-3	68.6	1445.18	1469.89	28.94%	25.72%	45.34%	-0.31	+0.79	11
2014-07-07	@ Seattle Reign	L 2-3	55.3	1445.97	1611.69	16.65%	19.91%	63.44%	-1.03	-4.37	11
2014-07-12	@ Houston Dash	L 1-2	51.3	1441.60	1381.42	40.34%	26.29%	33.38%	+0.13	-9.79	11
2014-07-20	@ Portland Thorns	L 3-6	47.6	1431.81	1535.24	21.16%	23.00%	55.83%	-0.71	-9.83	11
2014-07-26	@ Western New York Flash	W 4-2	59.6	1421.98	1523.00	21.37%	23.11%	55.52%	-0.70	+17.77	14
2014-08-04	Western New York Flash	L 3-4	61.0	1439.75	1495.83	33.93%	26.32%	39.75%	-0.11	-8.60	14
2014-08-07	@ FC Kansas City	L 1-2	49.1	1431.15	1550.85	19.87%	22.25%	57.88%	-0.79	-5.31	14
2014-08-11	Portland Thorns	W 2-0	48.7	1425.84	1534.31	27.49%	25.40%	47.10%	-0.37	+15.61	17
2014-08-14	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	41.2	1441.45	1523.50	23.02%	23.91%	53.08%	-0.60	-8.72	17
2014-08-18	Houston Dash	W 1-0	40.4	1432.73	1365.15	51.17%	24.45%	24.37%	+0.53	+6.51	20
2014-04-20	Western New York Flash	W 1-0	52.7	1511.72	1540.61	37.75%	26.39%	35.85%	+0.03	+8.97	3
2014-04-27	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	54.0	1520.69	1476.11	48.08%	25.20%	26.72%	+0.41	-11.22	3
2014-05-01	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-1	50.3	1509.47	1498.28	33.43%	26.29%	40.29%	-0.12	-8.50	3
2014-05-08	@ Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	62.0	1500.97	1500.53	32.02%	26.17%	41.81%	-0.18	+0.46	4
2014-05-12	Houston Dash	W 1-0	40.8	1501.43	1383.74	57.63%	22.35%	20.02%	+0.78	+5.35	7
2014-05-16	@ Boston Breakers	W 3-1	53.3	1506.78	1488.00	34.45%	26.35%	39.20%	-0.09	+13.56	10
2014-05-19	@ Boston Breakers	W 4-1	49.6	1520.34	1474.44	38.29%	26.38%	35.33%	+0.05	+15.36	13
2014-05-24	@ Houston Dash	W 3-1	44.3	1535.70	1374.46	54.14%	23.57%	22.29%	+0.64	+8.45	16
2014-05-29	@ Sky Blue FC	W 2-0	48.8	1544.15	1501.82	37.78%	26.39%	35.83%	+0.03	+12.68	19
2014-06-05	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	56.6	1556.83	1496.16	50.25%	24.70%	25.05%	+0.49	-11.61	19
2014-06-08	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-3	54.2	1545.22	1577.15	28.11%	25.54%	46.34%	-0.35	-10.46	19
2014-06-15	Sky Blue FC	T 2-2	67.7	1534.76	1455.89	52.66%	24.03%	23.31%	+0.59	-1.45	20
2014-06-19	@ Western New York Flash	L 0-2	48.4	1533.31	1521.31	33.53%	26.30%	40.17%	-0.12	-12.06	20
2014-06-22	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-1	51.0	1521.25	1547.49	28.76%	25.68%	45.56%	-0.32	-7.54	20
2014-07-04	@ Portland Thorns	T 2-2	68.3	1513.71	1510.25	32.41%	26.21%	41.39%	-0.16	+0.42	21
2014-07-10	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	62.9	1514.13	1509.83	42.49%	26.10%	31.42%	+0.20	-0.52	22
2014-07-13	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	58.2	1513.61	1616.06	28.17%	25.56%	46.27%	-0.34	+10.89	25
2014-07-18	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	64.1	1524.50	1534.91	40.40%	26.28%	33.32%	+0.13	-0.33	26
2014-07-21	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	67.1	1524.17	1605.18	23.11%	23.95%	52.94%	-0.60	+1.48	27
2014-07-26	Houston Dash	T 0-0	56.3	1525.65	1391.92	59.61%	21.57%	18.82%	+0.87	-2.07	28
2014-08-03	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	56.6	1523.58	1478.73	38.14%	26.39%	35.47%	+0.05	-9.39	28
2014-08-10	FC Kansas City	W 2-1	59.0	1514.19	1556.16	35.88%	26.39%	37.73%	-0.03	+9.31	31
2014-08-14	Boston Breakers	W 2-0	41.2	1523.50	1441.45	53.08%	23.91%	23.02%	+0.60	+8.72	34
2014-08-17	Western New York Flash	T 3-3	72.8	1532.22	1493.74	47.24%	25.37%	27.38%	+0.38	-0.96	35
2014-04-13	Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	63.4	1522.97	1514.20	43.11%	26.03%	30.86%	+0.23	-0.58	1
2014-04-20	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-3	53.2	1522.39	1473.48	38.72%	26.37%	34.91%	+0.07	-13.44	1
2014-04-27	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-3	51.8	1508.95	1534.77	28.81%	25.69%	45.50%	-0.31	-10.67	1
2014-05-01	Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	50.3	1498.28	1509.47	40.29%	26.29%	33.43%	+0.12	+8.51	4
2014-05-04	@ Houston Dash	W 4-0	38.2	1506.79	1398.24	47.11%	25.40%	27.49%	+0.37	+14.50	7
2014-05-08	@ Western New York Flash	L 1-2	56.1	1521.29	1531.35	30.70%	26.01%	43.30%	-0.23	-7.95	7
2014-05-12	Washington Spirit	W 2-1	52.8	1513.34	1478.66	46.72%	25.47%	27.80%	+0.36	+7.32	10
2014-05-15	@ Seattle Reign	L 2-3	61.0	1520.66	1559.71	27.32%	25.36%	47.32%	-0.38	-7.21	10
2014-05-19	Houston Dash	T 2-2	64.9	1513.45	1372.32	60.51%	21.19%	18.30%	+0.90	-2.15	11
2014-05-22	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	64.8	1511.30	1566.92	33.99%	26.32%	39.68%	-0.10	+0.27	12
2014-05-26	@ Boston Breakers	W 2-0	45.5	1511.57	1459.08	39.24%	26.35%	34.42%	+0.09	+12.30	15
2014-06-05	Western New York Flash	W 1-0	50.9	1523.87	1517.98	42.71%	26.07%	31.22%	+0.21	+8.06	18
2014-06-08	Boston Breakers	W 2-0	42.2	1531.93	1455.64	52.32%	24.13%	23.55%	+0.57	+8.91	21
2014-06-15	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	50.2	1540.84	1408.21	50.38%	24.66%	24.96%	+0.50	+6.65	24
2014-06-22	Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	51.0	1547.49	1521.25	45.56%	25.68%	28.76%	+0.32	+7.54	27
2014-06-29	Portland Thorns	W 1-0	50.6	1555.03	1517.50	47.11%	25.40%	27.49%	+0.37	+7.25	30
2014-07-07	@ Sky Blue FC	W 5-0	44.3	1562.28	1470.80	44.75%	25.81%	29.44%	+0.29	+17.18	33
2014-07-14	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-7	53.1	1579.46	1510.35	41.61%	26.19%	32.21%	+0.17	-24.56	33
2014-07-19	@ Western New York Flash	T 1-1	64.7	1554.90	1523.05	36.28%	26.40%	37.32%	-0.02	+0.05	34
2014-07-28	Sky Blue FC	W 2-1	51.8	1554.95	1466.21	53.95%	23.64%	22.42%	+0.64	+6.01	37
2014-07-31	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	59.5	1560.96	1468.08	44.95%	25.78%	29.28%	+0.29	-10.65	37
2014-08-03	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	67.8	1550.31	1626.68	31.28%	26.08%	42.63%	-0.21	+0.54	38
2014-08-07	Boston Breakers	W 2-1	49.1	1550.85	1431.15	57.88%	22.25%	19.87%	+0.79	+5.31	41
2014-08-10	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	59.0	1556.16	1514.19	37.73%	26.39%	35.88%	+0.03	-9.31	41
2014-04-13	Portland Thorns	L 0-1	44.6	1400.00	1527.80	25.45%	24.83%	49.73%	-0.47	-6.77	0
2014-04-21	@ Boston Breakers	W 3-2	62.2	1393.23	1500.09	20.88%	22.85%	56.27%	-0.73	+12.69	3
2014-04-28	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-2	38.5	1405.92	1519.95	20.31%	22.52%	57.17%	-0.77	-7.68	3
2014-05-04	FC Kansas City	L 0-4	38.2	1398.24	1506.79	27.49%	25.40%	47.11%	-0.37	-14.50	3
2014-05-12	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	40.8	1383.74	1501.43	20.02%	22.35%	57.63%	-0.78	-5.36	3
2014-05-15	Portland Thorns	L 0-1	42.9	1378.38	1535.76	22.63%	23.73%	53.64%	-0.62	-6.06	3
2014-05-19	@ FC Kansas City	T 2-2	64.9	1372.32	1513.45	18.30%	21.19%	60.51%	-0.90	+2.14	4
2014-05-24	Chicago Red Stars	L 1-3	44.3	1374.46	1535.70	22.29%	23.57%	54.14%	-0.64	-8.44	4
2014-05-26	@ Washington Spirit	L 2-3	49.9	1366.02	1481.24	20.22%	22.46%	57.32%	-0.77	-5.41	4
2014-06-01	@ Western New York Flash	W 2-1	58.4	1360.61	1532.01	16.30%	19.60%	64.10%	-1.06	+14.02	7
2014-06-09	@ Sky Blue FC	W 3-0	44.8	1374.63	1477.73	21.19%	23.02%	55.79%	-0.71	+21.85	10
2014-06-12	Western New York Flash	W 2-1	57.2	1396.48	1533.04	24.57%	24.53%	50.90%	-0.52	+11.73	13
2014-06-15	FC Kansas City	L 1-2	50.2	1408.21	1540.84	24.96%	24.66%	50.38%	-0.50	-6.65	13
2014-06-29	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	45.3	1401.56	1461.38	33.43%	26.29%	40.29%	-0.12	-8.51	13
2014-07-06	Western New York Flash	L 1-4	43.2	1393.05	1523.15	25.21%	24.75%	50.04%	-0.48	-11.63	13
2014-07-12	Boston Breakers	W 2-1	51.3	1381.42	1441.60	33.38%	26.29%	40.34%	-0.13	+9.79	16
2014-07-18	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	57.6	1391.21	1480.84	29.66%	25.85%	44.49%	-0.28	+0.71	17
2014-07-26	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 0-0	56.3	1391.92	1525.65	18.82%	21.57%	59.61%	-0.87	+2.07	18
2014-07-31	Seattle Reign	L 1-4	43.1	1393.99	1618.71	17.44%	20.54%	62.02%	-0.97	-7.98	18
2014-08-04	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-1	40.8	1386.01	1529.50	18.13%	21.07%	60.80%	-0.92	-4.81	18
2014-08-07	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-4	39.9	1381.20	1626.15	12.28%	15.59%	72.13%	-1.44	-5.26	18
2014-08-10	Sky Blue FC	L 1-3	45.1	1375.94	1469.60	29.18%	25.76%	45.06%	-0.30	-10.79	18
2014-08-18	@ Boston Breakers	L 0-1	40.4	1365.15	1432.73	24.37%	24.45%	51.17%	-0.53	-6.51	18
2014-08-21	@ Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	39.1	1358.64	1501.14	18.20%	21.12%	60.68%	-0.91	-4.83	18
2014-04-13	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	44.6	1527.80	1400.00	49.73%	24.83%	25.45%	+0.47	+6.77	3
2014-04-20	@ Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	63.7	1534.57	1514.78	34.59%	26.35%	39.06%	-0.08	+0.20	4
2014-04-27	FC Kansas City	W 3-1	51.8	1534.77	1508.95	45.50%	25.69%	28.81%	+0.31	+10.68	7
2014-05-04	@ Western New York Flash	T 1-1	64.7	1545.45	1531.64	33.78%	26.31%	39.91%	-0.11	+0.28	8
2014-05-11	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	55.8	1545.73	1549.74	41.31%	26.21%	32.48%	+0.16	-9.97	8
2014-05-15	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	42.9	1535.76	1378.38	53.64%	23.73%	22.63%	+0.62	+6.06	11
2014-05-22	Western New York Flash	W 2-1	57.4	1541.82	1539.23	42.24%	26.12%	31.63%	+0.19	+8.15	14
2014-05-25	Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	56.1	1549.97	1490.23	50.13%	24.73%	25.15%	+0.49	-11.59	14
2014-05-29	@ Boston Breakers	L 1-4	51.9	1538.38	1446.77	44.77%	25.80%	29.42%	+0.29	-18.38	14
2014-06-08	Western New York Flash	L 0-5	48.4	1520.00	1509.92	43.30%	26.01%	30.69%	+0.23	-23.11	14
2014-06-15	Washington Spirit	W 2-0	45.4	1496.89	1493.90	42.30%	26.12%	31.58%	+0.20	+11.50	17
2014-06-22	@ Washington Spirit	W 6-1	48.5	1508.39	1482.39	35.45%	26.39%	38.17%	-0.05	+21.01	20
2014-06-26	Sky Blue FC	L 1-2	59.5	1529.40	1456.80	51.84%	24.27%	23.89%	+0.55	-11.90	20
2014-06-29	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-1	50.6	1517.50	1555.03	27.49%	25.40%	47.11%	-0.37	-7.25	20
2014-07-04	Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	68.3	1510.25	1513.71	41.39%	26.21%	32.41%	+0.16	-0.42	21
2014-07-10	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	62.9	1509.83	1514.13	31.42%	26.10%	42.49%	-0.20	+0.52	22
2014-07-14	FC Kansas City	W 7-1	53.1	1510.35	1579.46	32.21%	26.19%	41.61%	-0.17	+24.56	25
2014-07-18	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	64.1	1534.91	1524.50	33.32%	26.28%	40.40%	-0.13	+0.33	26
2014-07-20	Boston Breakers	W 6-3	47.6	1535.24	1431.81	55.83%	23.00%	21.16%	+0.71	+9.82	29
2014-07-24	@ Washington Spirit	T 1-1	62.5	1545.06	1467.53	42.80%	26.06%	31.14%	+0.22	-0.55	30
2014-07-28	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-5	46.5	1544.51	1603.70	25.20%	24.75%	50.05%	-0.48	-15.01	30
2014-08-04	Houston Dash	W 1-0	40.8	1529.50	1386.01	60.80%	21.07%	18.13%	+0.92	+4.81	33
2014-08-11	@ Boston Breakers	L 0-2	48.7	1534.31	1425.84	47.10%	25.40%	27.49%	+0.37	-15.61	33
2014-08-17	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	59.0	1518.70	1629.24	27.27%	25.35%	47.39%	-0.38	+11.09	36
2014-04-14	Boston Breakers	W 3-0	44.8	1493.96	1515.28	38.84%	26.36%	34.80%	+0.07	+15.19	3
2014-04-24	Washington Spirit	W 3-1	50.2	1509.15	1486.91	45.00%	25.77%	29.23%	+0.30	+10.80	6
2014-04-28	Houston Dash	W 2-0	38.5	1519.95	1405.92	57.17%	22.52%	20.31%	+0.77	+7.69	9
2014-05-01	@ Sky Blue FC	W 2-0	49.2	1527.64	1505.64	34.89%	26.37%	38.74%	-0.07	+13.43	12
2014-05-04	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-1	56.4	1541.07	1487.33	39.42%	26.34%	34.24%	+0.09	+8.67	15
2014-05-11	@ Portland Thorns	W 1-0	55.8	1549.74	1545.73	32.48%	26.21%	41.31%	-0.16	+9.97	18
2014-05-15	FC Kansas City	W 3-2	61.0	1559.71	1520.66	47.32%	25.36%	27.32%	+0.38	+7.21	21
2014-05-22	@ FC Kansas City	T 1-1	64.8	1566.92	1511.30	39.68%	26.32%	33.99%	+0.10	-0.26	22
2014-05-26	Western New York Flash	T 2-2	71.1	1566.66	1531.09	46.85%	25.45%	27.70%	+0.36	-0.92	23
2014-06-02	@ Sky Blue FC	W 3-1	53.1	1565.74	1489.14	42.66%	26.08%	31.26%	+0.21	+11.41	26
2014-06-08	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-1	54.2	1577.15	1545.22	46.34%	25.54%	28.11%	+0.35	+10.45	29
2014-06-20	@ Boston Breakers	W 2-0	45.3	1587.60	1460.61	49.62%	24.85%	25.53%	+0.47	+9.61	32
2014-06-22	@ Western New York Flash	W 2-1	59.4	1597.21	1533.37	40.86%	26.25%	32.89%	+0.14	+8.40	35
2014-06-29	Sky Blue FC	T 0-0	62.0	1605.61	1468.70	60.00%	21.41%	18.59%	+0.88	-2.10	36
2014-07-03	@ Western New York Flash	W 2-1	59.2	1603.51	1531.33	42.04%	26.14%	31.82%	+0.19	+8.18	39
2014-07-07	Boston Breakers	W 3-2	55.3	1611.69	1445.97	63.44%	19.91%	16.65%	+1.03	+4.37	42
2014-07-13	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	58.2	1616.06	1513.61	46.27%	25.56%	28.17%	+0.34	-10.88	42
2014-07-21	Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	67.1	1605.18	1524.17	52.94%	23.95%	23.11%	+0.60	-1.48	43
2014-07-28	Portland Thorns	W 5-0	46.5	1603.70	1544.51	50.05%	24.75%	25.20%	+0.48	+15.01	46
2014-07-31	@ Houston Dash	W 4-1	43.1	1618.71	1393.99	62.02%	20.54%	17.44%	+0.97	+7.97	49
2014-08-03	@ FC Kansas City	T 1-1	67.8	1626.68	1550.31	42.63%	26.08%	31.28%	+0.21	-0.53	50
2014-08-07	Houston Dash	W 4-1	39.9	1626.15	1381.20	72.13%	15.59%	12.28%	+1.44	+5.25	53
2014-08-10	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	67.7	1631.40	1488.12	60.77%	21.08%	18.15%	+0.91	-2.16	54
2014-08-17	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-1	59.0	1629.24	1518.70	47.39%	25.35%	27.27%	+0.38	-11.09	54
2014-04-13	@ FC Kansas City	T 1-1	63.4	1514.20	1522.97	30.86%	26.03%	43.11%	-0.23	+0.58	1
2014-04-20	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	63.7	1514.78	1534.57	39.06%	26.35%	34.59%	+0.08	-0.21	2
2014-04-28	@ Boston Breakers	L 2-3	60.9	1514.57	1487.39	35.61%	26.39%	38.00%	-0.04	-8.93	2
2014-05-01	Seattle Reign	L 0-2	49.2	1505.64	1527.64	38.74%	26.37%	34.89%	+0.07	-13.43	2
2014-05-04	Boston Breakers	W 1-0	49.3	1492.21	1496.32	41.29%	26.21%	32.49%	+0.16	+8.32	5
2014-05-08	Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	62.0	1500.53	1500.97	41.81%	26.17%	32.02%	+0.18	-0.46	6
2014-05-11	@ Western New York Flash	L 0-2	45.7	1500.07	1539.30	27.30%	25.35%	47.35%	-0.38	-10.19	6
2014-05-22	@ Washington Spirit	T 3-3	70.5	1489.88	1481.60	33.04%	26.26%	40.70%	-0.14	+0.35	7
2014-05-25	@ Portland Thorns	W 1-0	56.1	1490.23	1549.97	25.15%	24.73%	50.13%	-0.49	+11.59	10
2014-05-29	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	48.8	1501.82	1544.15	35.83%	26.39%	37.78%	-0.03	-12.68	10
2014-06-02	Seattle Reign	L 1-3	53.1	1489.14	1565.74	31.26%	26.08%	42.66%	-0.21	-11.41	10
2014-06-09	Houston Dash	L 0-3	44.8	1477.73	1374.63	55.79%	23.02%	21.19%	+0.71	-21.84	10
2014-06-15	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	67.7	1455.89	1534.76	23.31%	24.03%	52.66%	-0.59	+1.45	11
2014-06-22	Boston Breakers	T 1-1	58.7	1457.34	1451.00	42.77%	26.07%	31.16%	+0.21	-0.54	12
2014-06-26	@ Portland Thorns	W 2-1	59.5	1456.80	1529.40	23.89%	24.27%	51.84%	-0.55	+11.90	15
2014-06-29	@ Seattle Reign	T 0-0	62.0	1468.70	1605.61	18.59%	21.41%	60.00%	-0.88	+2.10	16
2014-07-07	FC Kansas City	L 0-5	44.3	1470.80	1562.28	29.44%	25.81%	44.75%	-0.29	-17.19	16
2014-07-21	Washington Spirit	W 4-2	54.1	1453.61	1480.13	38.09%	26.39%	35.52%	+0.05	+12.60	19
2014-07-28	@ FC Kansas City	L 1-2	51.8	1466.21	1554.95	22.42%	23.64%	53.95%	-0.64	-6.00	19
2014-08-01	Western New York Flash	W 1-0	50.2	1460.21	1505.23	35.45%	26.39%	38.17%	-0.05	+9.39	22
2014-08-10	@ Houston Dash	W 3-1	45.1	1469.60	1375.94	45.06%	25.76%	29.18%	+0.30	+10.79	25
2014-08-14	@ Western New York Flash	W 3-2	63.0	1480.39	1504.44	29.02%	25.73%	45.25%	-0.30	+10.70	28
2014-08-17	@ Washington Spirit	W 1-0	51.8	1491.09	1490.28	32.07%	26.17%	41.76%	-0.18	+10.05	31
2014-08-21	Houston Dash	W 1-0	39.1	1501.14	1358.64	60.68%	21.12%	18.20%	+0.91	+4.83	34
2014-04-13	Western New York Flash	L 1-3	53.1	1486.18	1527.91	35.91%	26.40%	37.69%	-0.03	-12.70	0
2014-04-20	FC Kansas City	W 3-1	53.2	1473.48	1522.39	34.91%	26.37%	38.72%	-0.07	+13.43	3
2014-04-24	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-3	50.2	1486.91	1509.15	29.23%	25.77%	45.00%	-0.30	-10.80	3
2014-04-27	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	54.0	1476.11	1520.69	26.72%	25.20%	48.08%	-0.41	+11.22	6
2014-05-04	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	56.4	1487.33	1541.07	34.24%	26.34%	39.42%	-0.09	-8.67	6
2014-05-12	@ FC Kansas City	L 1-2	52.8	1478.66	1513.34	27.80%	25.47%	46.72%	-0.36	-7.32	6
2014-05-18	Western New York Flash	W 3-2	63.7	1471.34	1549.50	31.06%	26.05%	42.89%	-0.22	+10.26	9
2014-05-22	Sky Blue FC	T 3-3	70.5	1481.60	1489.88	40.70%	26.26%	33.04%	+0.14	-0.36	10
2014-05-26	Houston Dash	W 3-2	49.9	1481.24	1366.02	57.32%	22.46%	20.22%	+0.77	+5.41	13
2014-06-02	@ Boston Breakers	W 3-2	60.0	1486.65	1465.15	34.82%	26.36%	38.81%	-0.07	+9.51	16
2014-06-05	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	56.6	1496.16	1556.83	25.05%	24.70%	50.25%	-0.49	+11.62	19
2014-06-12	@ Boston Breakers	L 0-2	46.7	1507.78	1446.73	40.46%	26.28%	33.26%	+0.13	-13.88	19
2014-06-15	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-2	45.4	1493.90	1496.89	31.58%	26.12%	42.30%	-0.20	-11.51	19
2014-06-22	Portland Thorns	L 1-6	48.5	1482.39	1508.39	38.17%	26.39%	35.45%	+0.05	-21.01	19
2014-06-29	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	45.3	1461.38	1401.56	40.29%	26.29%	33.43%	+0.12	+8.51	22
2014-07-03	Boston Breakers	T 3-3	68.6	1469.89	1445.18	45.34%	25.72%	28.94%	+0.31	-0.79	23
2014-07-13	@ Western New York Flash	W 1-0	54.9	1469.10	1534.78	24.56%	24.52%	50.92%	-0.52	+11.74	26
2014-07-18	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	57.6	1480.84	1391.21	44.49%	25.85%	29.66%	+0.28	-0.71	27
2014-07-21	@ Sky Blue FC	L 2-4	54.1	1480.13	1453.61	35.52%	26.39%	38.09%	-0.05	-12.60	27
2014-07-24	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	62.5	1467.53	1545.06	31.14%	26.06%	42.80%	-0.22	+0.55	28
2014-07-31	FC Kansas City	W 2-1	59.5	1468.08	1560.96	29.28%	25.78%	44.95%	-0.29	+10.65	31
2014-08-03	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	56.6	1478.73	1523.58	35.47%	26.39%	38.14%	-0.05	+9.39	34
2014-08-10	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	67.7	1488.12	1631.40	18.15%	21.08%	60.77%	-0.91	+2.16	35
2014-08-17	Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	51.8	1490.28	1491.09	41.76%	26.17%	32.07%	+0.18	-10.05	35
2014-04-13	@ Washington Spirit	W 3-1	53.1	1527.91	1486.18	37.69%	26.40%	35.91%	+0.03	+12.70	3
2014-04-20	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	52.7	1540.61	1511.72	35.85%	26.39%	37.75%	-0.03	-8.97	3
2014-05-04	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	64.7	1531.64	1545.45	39.91%	26.31%	33.78%	+0.11	-0.29	4
2014-05-08	FC Kansas City	W 2-1	56.1	1531.35	1521.29	43.30%	26.01%	30.70%	+0.23	+7.95	7
2014-05-11	Sky Blue FC	W 2-0	45.7	1539.30	1500.07	47.35%	25.35%	27.30%	+0.38	+10.20	10
2014-05-18	@ Washington Spirit	L 2-3	63.7	1549.50	1471.34	42.89%	26.05%	31.06%	+0.22	-10.27	10
2014-05-22	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-2	57.4	1539.23	1541.82	31.63%	26.12%	42.24%	-0.19	-8.14	10
2014-05-26	@ Seattle Reign	T 2-2	71.1	1531.09	1566.66	27.70%	25.45%	46.85%	-0.36	+0.92	11
2014-06-01	Houston Dash	L 1-2	58.4	1532.01	1360.61	64.10%	19.60%	16.30%	+1.06	-14.03	11
2014-06-05	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-1	50.9	1517.98	1523.87	31.22%	26.07%	42.71%	-0.21	-8.06	11
2014-06-08	@ Portland Thorns	W 5-0	48.4	1509.92	1520.00	30.69%	26.01%	43.30%	-0.23	+23.12	14
2014-06-12	@ Houston Dash	L 1-2	57.2	1533.04	1396.48	50.90%	24.53%	24.57%	+0.52	-11.73	14
2014-06-19	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-0	48.4	1521.31	1533.31	40.17%	26.30%	33.53%	+0.12	+12.06	17
2014-06-22	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	59.4	1533.37	1597.21	32.89%	26.25%	40.86%	-0.14	-8.40	17
2014-06-28	Boston Breakers	W 2-1	50.7	1524.97	1451.55	51.94%	24.24%	23.82%	+0.56	+6.36	20
2014-07-03	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	59.2	1531.33	1603.51	31.82%	26.14%	42.04%	-0.19	-8.18	20
2014-07-06	@ Houston Dash	W 4-1	43.2	1523.15	1393.05	50.04%	24.75%	25.21%	+0.48	+11.63	23
2014-07-13	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	54.9	1534.78	1469.10	50.92%	24.52%	24.56%	+0.52	-11.73	23
2014-07-19	FC Kansas City	T 1-1	64.7	1523.05	1554.90	37.32%	26.40%	36.28%	+0.02	-0.05	24
2014-07-26	Boston Breakers	L 2-4	59.6	1523.00	1421.98	55.52%	23.11%	21.37%	+0.70	-17.77	24
2014-08-01	@ Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	50.2	1505.23	1460.21	38.17%	26.39%	35.45%	+0.05	-9.40	24
2014-08-04	@ Boston Breakers	W 4-3	61.0	1495.83	1439.75	39.75%	26.32%	33.93%	+0.11	+8.61	27
2014-08-14	Sky Blue FC	L 2-3	63.0	1504.44	1480.39	45.25%	25.73%	29.02%	+0.30	-10.70	27
2014-08-17	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 3-3	72.8	1493.74	1532.22	27.38%	25.37%	47.24%	-0.38	+0.96	28

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2014-08-23	Portland Thorns	W 2-0	44.0	1546.85	1529.79	57.51%	0.00%	42.49%	+0.27	+10.99	1-0
2014-08-31	@ Seattle Reign	W 2-1	62.3	1557.84	1623.07	35.89%	0.00%	64.11%	-0.52	+11.72	2-0
2014-08-23	@ FC Kansas City	L 0-2	44.0	1529.79	1546.85	42.49%	0.00%	57.51%	-0.27	-10.99	0-1
2014-08-25	Washington Spirit	W 2-1	48.8	1618.15	1480.23	73.07%	0.00%	26.93%	+0.89	+4.92	1-0
2014-08-31	FC Kansas City	L 1-2	62.3	1623.07	1557.84	64.11%	0.00%	35.89%	+0.52	-11.72	1-1
2014-08-25	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-2	48.8	1480.23	1618.15	26.93%	0.00%	73.07%	-0.89	-4.93	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2014-06-01	16.30%	Houston Dash	1360.61	2	@ Western New York Flash	1532.01	1
2	2014-04-21	20.88%	Houston Dash	1393.23	3	@ Boston Breakers	1500.09	2
3	2014-06-09	21.19%	Houston Dash	1374.63	3	@ Sky Blue FC	1477.73	0
4	2014-07-26	21.37%	Boston Breakers	1421.98	4	@ Western New York Flash	1523.00	2
5	2014-06-26	23.89%	Sky Blue FC	1456.80	2	@ Portland Thorns	1529.40	1
6	2014-07-13	24.56%	Washington Spirit	1469.10	1	@ Western New York Flash	1534.78	0
7	2014-06-12	24.57%	@ Houston Dash	1396.48	2	Western New York Flash	1533.04	1
8	2014-06-05	25.05%	Washington Spirit	1496.16	1	@ Chicago Red Stars	1556.83	0
9	2014-05-25	25.15%	Sky Blue FC	1490.23	1	@ Portland Thorns	1549.97	0
10	2014-04-27	26.72%	Washington Spirit	1476.11	1	@ Chicago Red Stars	1520.69	0
11	2014-08-17	27.27%	@ Portland Thorns	1518.70	1	Seattle Reign	1629.24	0
12	2014-08-11	27.49%	@ Boston Breakers	1425.84	2	Portland Thorns	1534.31	0
13	2014-07-13	28.17%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1513.61	1	Seattle Reign	1616.06	0
14	2014-08-14	29.02%	Sky Blue FC	1480.39	3	@ Western New York Flash	1504.44	2
15	2014-07-31	29.28%	@ Washington Spirit	1468.08	2	FC Kansas City	1560.96	1
16	2014-05-29	29.42%	@ Boston Breakers	1446.77	4	Portland Thorns	1538.38	1
17	2014-06-08	30.69%	Western New York Flash	1509.92	5	@ Portland Thorns	1520.00	0
18	2014-05-18	31.06%	@ Washington Spirit	1471.34	3	Western New York Flash	1549.50	2
19	2014-08-17	32.07%	Sky Blue FC	1491.09	1	@ Washington Spirit	1490.28	0
20	2014-07-14	32.21%	@ Portland Thorns	1510.35	7	FC Kansas City	1579.46	1
21	2014-05-11	32.48%	Seattle Reign	1549.74	1	@ Portland Thorns	1545.73	0
22	2014-06-12	33.26%	@ Boston Breakers	1446.73	2	Washington Spirit	1507.78	0
23	2014-07-12	33.38%	@ Houston Dash	1381.42	2	Boston Breakers	1441.60	1
24	2014-05-16	34.45%	Chicago Red Stars	1506.78	3	@ Boston Breakers	1488.00	1
25	2014-06-02	34.82%	Washington Spirit	1486.65	3	@ Boston Breakers	1465.15	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2014-07-14	24.56	@ Portland Thorns	7	1510.35	32.21%	FC Kansas City	1	1579.46	41.61%	26.19%
2	2014-06-08	23.12	Western New York Flash	5	1509.92	30.69%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1520.00	43.30%	26.01%
3	2014-06-09	21.85	Houston Dash	3	1374.63	21.19%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1477.73	55.79%	23.02%
4	2014-06-22	21.01	Portland Thorns	6	1508.39	35.45%	@ Washington Spirit	1	1482.39	38.17%	26.39%
5	2014-05-29	18.38	@ Boston Breakers	4	1446.77	29.42%	Portland Thorns	1	1538.38	44.77%	25.80%
6	2014-07-26	17.77	Boston Breakers	4	1421.98	21.37%	@ Western New York Flash	2	1523.00	55.52%	23.11%
7	2014-07-07	17.19	FC Kansas City	5	1562.28	44.75%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1470.80	29.44%	25.81%
8	2014-08-11	15.61	@ Boston Breakers	2	1425.84	27.49%	Portland Thorns	0	1534.31	47.10%	25.40%
9	2014-05-19	15.36	Chicago Red Stars	4	1520.34	38.29%	@ Boston Breakers	1	1474.44	35.33%	26.38%
10	2014-04-14	15.19	@ Seattle Reign	3	1493.96	38.84%	Boston Breakers	0	1515.28	34.80%	26.36%
11	2014-07-28	15.01	@ Seattle Reign	5	1603.70	50.05%	Portland Thorns	0	1544.51	25.20%	24.75%
12	2014-05-04	14.50	FC Kansas City	4	1506.79	47.11%	@ Houston Dash	0	1398.24	27.49%	25.40%
13	2014-06-01	14.03	Houston Dash	2	1360.61	16.30%	@ Western New York Flash	1	1532.01	64.10%	19.60%
14	2014-06-12	13.88	@ Boston Breakers	2	1446.73	33.26%	Washington Spirit	0	1507.78	40.46%	26.28%
15	2014-05-16	13.56	Chicago Red Stars	3	1506.78	34.45%	@ Boston Breakers	1	1488.00	39.20%	26.35%
16	2014-04-20	13.44	@ Washington Spirit	3	1473.48	34.91%	FC Kansas City	1	1522.39	38.72%	26.37%
17	2014-05-01	13.43	Seattle Reign	2	1527.64	34.89%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1505.64	38.74%	26.37%
18	2014-04-13	12.70	Western New York Flash	3	1527.91	37.69%	@ Washington Spirit	1	1486.18	35.91%	26.40%
19	2014-04-21	12.70	Houston Dash	3	1393.23	20.88%	@ Boston Breakers	2	1500.09	56.27%	22.85%
20	2014-05-29	12.68	Chicago Red Stars	2	1544.15	37.78%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1501.82	35.83%	26.39%
21	2014-07-21	12.60	@ Sky Blue FC	4	1453.61	38.09%	Washington Spirit	2	1480.13	35.52%	26.39%
22	2014-05-26	12.31	FC Kansas City	2	1511.57	39.24%	@ Boston Breakers	0	1459.08	34.42%	26.35%
23	2014-06-19	12.06	@ Western New York Flash	2	1521.31	40.17%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1533.31	33.53%	26.30%
24	2014-06-26	11.90	Sky Blue FC	2	1456.80	23.89%	@ Portland Thorns	1	1529.40	51.84%	24.27%
25	2014-07-13	11.74	Washington Spirit	1	1469.10	24.56%	@ Western New York Flash	0	1534.78	50.92%	24.52%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season's games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2014-08-17	72.8	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1532.22	47.24%	Western New York Flash	3	1493.74	27.38%	25.37%
2	2014-05-26	71.1	@ Seattle Reign	2	1566.66	46.85%	Western New York Flash	2	1531.09	27.70%	25.45%
3	2014-05-22	70.5	@ Washington Spirit	3	1481.60	40.70%	Sky Blue FC	3	1489.88	33.04%	26.26%
4	2014-07-03	68.6	@ Washington Spirit	3	1469.89	45.34%	Boston Breakers	3	1445.18	28.94%	25.72%
5	2014-07-04	68.3	@ Portland Thorns	2	1510.25	41.39%	Chicago Red Stars	2	1513.71	32.41%	26.21%
6	2014-08-03	67.8	@ FC Kansas City	1	1550.31	31.28%	Seattle Reign	1	1626.68	42.63%	26.08%
7	2014-06-15	67.7	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1534.76	52.66%	Sky Blue FC	2	1455.89	23.31%	24.03%
8	2014-08-10	67.7	@ Seattle Reign	1	1631.40	60.77%	Washington Spirit	1	1488.12	18.15%	21.08%
9	2014-07-21	67.1	@ Seattle Reign	1	1605.18	52.94%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1524.17	23.11%	23.95%
10	2014-05-19	64.9	@ FC Kansas City	2	1513.45	60.51%	Houston Dash	2	1372.32	18.30%	21.19%
11	2014-05-22	64.8	@ FC Kansas City	1	1511.30	33.99%	Seattle Reign	1	1566.92	39.68%	26.32%
12	2014-05-04	64.7	@ Western New York Flash	1	1531.64	39.91%	Portland Thorns	1	1545.45	33.78%	26.31%
13	2014-07-19	64.7	@ Western New York Flash	1	1523.05	37.32%	FC Kansas City	1	1554.90	36.28%	26.40%
14	2014-07-18	64.1	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1524.50	40.40%	Portland Thorns	1	1534.91	33.32%	26.28%
15	2014-04-20	63.7	@ Sky Blue FC	1	1514.78	39.06%	Portland Thorns	1	1534.57	34.59%	26.35%
16	2014-05-18	63.7	@ Washington Spirit	3	1471.34	31.06%	Western New York Flash	2	1549.50	42.89%	26.05%
17	2014-04-13	63.4	@ FC Kansas City	1	1522.97	43.11%	Sky Blue FC	1	1514.20	30.86%	26.03%
18	2014-08-14	63.0	Sky Blue FC	3	1480.39	29.02%	@ Western New York Flash	2	1504.44	45.25%	25.73%
19	2014-07-10	62.9	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1514.13	42.49%	Portland Thorns	1	1509.83	31.42%	26.10%
20	2014-07-24	62.5	@ Washington Spirit	1	1467.53	31.14%	Portland Thorns	1	1545.06	42.80%	26.06%
21	2014-08-31 *	62.3	FC Kansas City	2	1557.84	35.89%	@ Seattle Reign	1	1623.07	64.11%	0.00%
22	2014-04-21	62.2	Houston Dash	3	1393.23	20.88%	@ Boston Breakers	2	1500.09	56.27%	22.85%
23	2014-05-08	62.0	@ Sky Blue FC	1	1500.53	41.81%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1500.97	32.02%	26.17%
24	2014-06-29	62.0	@ Seattle Reign	0	1605.61	60.00%	Sky Blue FC	0	1468.70	18.59%	21.41%
25	2014-05-15	61.0	@ Seattle Reign	3	1559.71	47.32%	FC Kansas City	2	1520.66	27.32%	25.36%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2014-05-04	38.2	FC Kansas City	4	1506.79	47.11%	@ Houston Dash	0	1398.24	27.49%	25.40%
2	2014-04-28	38.5	@ Seattle Reign	2	1519.95	57.17%	Houston Dash	0	1405.92	20.31%	22.52%
3	2014-08-21	39.1	@ Sky Blue FC	1	1501.14	60.68%	Houston Dash	0	1358.64	18.20%	21.12%
4	2014-08-07	39.9	@ Seattle Reign	4	1626.15	72.13%	Houston Dash	1	1381.20	12.28%	15.59%
5	2014-08-18	40.4	@ Boston Breakers	1	1432.73	51.17%	Houston Dash	0	1365.15	24.37%	24.45%
6	2014-05-12	40.8	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1501.43	57.63%	Houston Dash	0	1383.74	20.02%	22.35%
7	2014-08-04	40.8	@ Portland Thorns	1	1529.50	60.80%	Houston Dash	0	1386.01	18.13%	21.07%
8	2014-08-14	41.2	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1523.50	53.08%	Boston Breakers	0	1441.45	23.02%	23.91%
9	2014-06-08	42.2	@ FC Kansas City	2	1531.93	52.32%	Boston Breakers	0	1455.64	23.55%	24.13%
10	2014-05-15	42.9	Portland Thorns	1	1535.76	53.64%	@ Houston Dash	0	1378.38	22.63%	23.73%
11	2014-07-31	43.1	Seattle Reign	4	1618.71	62.02%	@ Houston Dash	1	1393.99	17.44%	20.54%
12	2014-07-06	43.2	Western New York Flash	4	1523.15	50.04%	@ Houston Dash	1	1393.05	25.21%	24.75%
13	2014-08-23 *	44.0	@ FC Kansas City	2	1546.85	57.51%	Portland Thorns	0	1529.79	42.49%	0.00%
14	2014-05-24	44.3	Chicago Red Stars	3	1535.70	54.14%	@ Houston Dash	1	1374.46	22.29%	23.57%
15	2014-07-07	44.3	FC Kansas City	5	1562.28	44.75%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1470.80	29.44%	25.81%
16	2014-04-13	44.6	Portland Thorns	1	1527.80	49.73%	@ Houston Dash	0	1400.00	25.45%	24.83%
17	2014-04-14	44.8	@ Seattle Reign	3	1493.96	38.84%	Boston Breakers	0	1515.28	34.80%	26.36%
18	2014-06-09	44.8	Houston Dash	3	1374.63	21.19%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1477.73	55.79%	23.02%
19	2014-08-10	45.1	Sky Blue FC	3	1469.60	45.06%	@ Houston Dash	1	1375.94	29.18%	25.76%
20	2014-06-20	45.3	Seattle Reign	2	1587.60	49.62%	@ Boston Breakers	0	1460.61	25.53%	24.85%
21	2014-06-29	45.3	Washington Spirit	1	1461.38	40.29%	@ Houston Dash	0	1401.56	33.43%	26.29%
22	2014-06-15	45.4	@ Portland Thorns	2	1496.89	42.30%	Washington Spirit	0	1493.90	31.58%	26.12%
23	2014-05-26	45.5	FC Kansas City	2	1511.57	39.24%	@ Boston Breakers	0	1459.08	34.42%	26.35%
24	2014-05-11	45.7	@ Western New York Flash	2	1539.30	47.35%	Sky Blue FC	0	1500.07	27.30%	25.35%
25	2014-07-28	46.5	@ Seattle Reign	5	1603.70	50.05%	Portland Thorns	0	1544.51	25.20%	24.75%