1994 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

5th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1989

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

3.20 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.80 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

5.36 wins below expected

2 wins · 7.36 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	.750	-	316	234	+82	8.80	+3.20
2	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	340	204	+136	9.00	+2.00
3	Cincinnati Bengals	3	13	.188	9	276	406	-130	5.50	-2.50
4	Houston Oilers	2	14	.125	10	226	352	-126	7.36	-5.36

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	10	6	.625	-	389	327	+62	9.15	+0.85
2	New England Patriots Playoffs	10	6	.625	-	351	312	+39	6.92	+3.08
3	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	2	307	320	-13	6.82	+1.18
4	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	3	340	356	-16	8.73	-1.73
5	New York Jets	6	10	.375	4	264	320	-56	7.75	-1.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	5	.688	-	381	306	+75	9.42	+1.58
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	9	7	.562	2	319	298	+21	8.65	+0.35
3	Los Angeles Raiders	9	7	.562	2	303	327	-24	7.76	+1.24
4	Denver Broncos	7	9	.438	4	347	396	-49	7.53	-0.53
5	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	5	287	323	-36	7.73	-1.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	6	.625	-	356	314	+42	8.97	+1.03
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	382	287	+95	8.66	+0.34
3	Detroit Lions Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	357	342	+15	7.66	+1.34
4	Chicago Bears Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	271	307	-36	7.93	+1.07
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	.375	4	251	351	-100	6.39	-0.39

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	-	414	248	+166	10.99	+1.01
2	New York Giants	9	7	.562	3	279	305	-26	7.93	+1.07
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	4	235	267	-32	7.42	+0.58
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	.438	5	308	308	0	8.84	-1.84
5	Washington Redskins	3	13	.188	9	320	412	-92	6.84	-3.84

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	-	505	296	+209	10.51	+2.49
2	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	6	348	407	-59	6.92	+0.08
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	317	385	-68	7.07	-0.07
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	12	.250	9	286	365	-79	6.74	-2.74

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 27

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Dec 31

Cleveland Browns (1st) 20

New England Patriots 13

Jan 1

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 29

Cleveland Browns (1st) 9

Jan 7

San Diego Chargers 22

Miami Dolphins 21

Jan 8

Conference Championship

San Diego Chargers 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Jan 15

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 16

Detroit Lions 12

Dec 31

Chicago Bears 35

Minnesota Vikings 18

Jan 1

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 44

Chicago Bears 15

Jan 7

Dallas Cowboys 35

Green Bay Packers 9

Jan 8

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 38

Dallas Cowboys 28

Jan 15

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 49

San Diego Chargers 26

Jan 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1680	13	10.51	+2.49	95.47%	2	7	9	11	12	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1663	12	10.99	+1.01	79.62%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1599	12	8.80	+3.20	97.47%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1575	11	9.00	+2.00	90.96%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1572	11	9.42	+1.58	86.24%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1569	9	8.66	+0.34	66.67%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1554	10	9.15	+0.85	75.89%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1546	10	8.97	+1.03	78.74%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1543	9	8.65	+0.35	66.77%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1534	10	6.92	+3.08	96.65%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1524	9	7.66	+1.34	82.92%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1518	9	7.93	+1.07	79.56%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1508	9	7.76	+1.24	81.55%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1494	8	7.42	+0.58	71.52%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1493	7	8.73	-1.73	26.89%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1493	7	8.84	-1.84	24.36%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1483	7	7.53	-0.53	49.97%	0	4	6	8	9	11	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1481	7	6.92	+0.08	62.32%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1478	9	7.93	+1.07	79.15%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1451	8	6.82	+1.18	80.83%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1449	7	7.07	-0.07	59.39%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1426	6	7.75	-1.75	26.62%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1421	6	7.73	-1.73	26.61%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1407	3	6.84	-3.84	3.80%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1403	6	6.39	-0.39	53.24%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1400	2	7.36	-5.36	0.42%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1381	4	6.74	-2.74	12.32%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1355	3	5.50	-2.50	14.05%	0	3	4	5	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	-	-
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cardinals	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Arizona Cardinals	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	3-0 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.01%	1.12%	1.12%	0.67%	0.45%	0.22%	5.58%
7–13	2.01%	4.91%	6.25%	3.79%	2.68%	1.34%	0.22%	21.21%
14–20	1.12%	6.25%	9.38%	6.70%	2.90%	1.56%	1.12%	29.02%
21–27	1.12%	3.79%	6.70%	4.02%	2.68%	1.34%	0.22%	19.87%
28–34	0.67%	2.68%	2.90%	2.68%	4.46%	0.89%	0.67%	14.96%
35–41	0.45%	1.34%	1.56%	1.34%	0.89%	1.34%	—	6.92%
42+	0.22%	0.22%	1.12%	0.22%	0.67%	—	—	2.46%
Total	5.58%	21.21%	29.02%	19.87%	14.96%	6.92%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.26	20.26	+0.00
SD	9.81	9.81	13.46
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	50	50	+39
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.69	16.69	-2.00
SD	8.32	9.21	14.82
CV	0.57	0.55	—
Max	30	38	+21
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	24.06	-4.25
SD	9.96	12.85	16.55
CV	0.50	0.53	—
Max	34	50	+21
Min	3	5	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	22.25	-1.00
SD	11.86	9.84	14.37
CV	0.56	0.44	—
Max	44	41	+34
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	19.19	-2.25
SD	7.30	12.29	16.27
CV	0.43	0.64	—
Max	27	42	+14
Min	3	6	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	31.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	25.38	-8.12
SD	8.43	7.37	9.23
CV	0.49	0.29	—
Max	34	38	+3
Min	7	14	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	43.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	12.75	+8.50
SD	10.04	6.58	14.15
CV	0.47	0.52	—
Max	37	26	+32
Min	7	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.88	15.50	+10.38
SD	9.45	7.06	12.92
CV	0.37	0.46	—
Max	42	31	+35
Min	10	3	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	24.75	-3.06
SD	6.22	11.41	11.30
CV	0.29	0.46	—
Max	34	48	+12
Min	13	9	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	21.38	+0.94
SD	10.12	8.34	9.33
CV	0.45	0.39	—
Max	41	38	+22
Min	3	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.88	17.94	+5.94
SD	10.18	11.28	14.28
CV	0.43	0.63	—
Max	40	42	+37
Min	7	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.12	22.00	-7.88
SD	6.92	10.55	11.00
CV	0.49	0.48	—
Max	31	45	+14
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	20.00	-0.81
SD	10.32	8.77	10.73
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	45	41	+24
Min	6	6	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	18.62	+1.31
SD	10.87	11.81	15.20
CV	0.54	0.63	—
Max	38	45	+22
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	62.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.94	20.44	-1.50
SD	10.98	8.71	15.59
CV	0.58	0.43	—
Max	48	44	+32
Min	3	13	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.88	22.81	-4.94
SD	6.81	10.48	9.50
CV	0.38	0.46	—
Max	34	37	+16
Min	5	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.31	20.44	+3.88
SD	10.36	10.88	9.51
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	45	42	+20
Min	6	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	19.62	+2.62
SD	10.43	10.05	12.72
CV	0.47	0.51	—
Max	42	41	+28
Min	7	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	19.50	+2.44
SD	10.68	9.49	10.29
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	41	39	+24
Min	3	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	25.44	-3.69
SD	8.87	8.53	9.92
CV	0.41	0.34	—
Max	37	38	+16
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.44	19.06	-1.62
SD	7.67	8.19	9.43
CV	0.44	0.43	—
Max	31	38	+8
Min	6	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	20.00	-3.50
SD	8.26	7.28	11.44
CV	0.50	0.36	—
Max	31	28	+20
Min	6	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	19.25	+0.00
SD	10.12	9.48	12.50
CV	0.53	0.49	—
Max	40	33	+32
Min	3	6	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	14.62	+5.12
SD	8.94	9.79	11.18
CV	0.45	0.67	—
Max	38	37	+23
Min	9	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	19.12	+4.69
SD	9.22	10.08	11.57
CV	0.39	0.53	—
Max	37	38	+20
Min	9	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.56	18.50	+13.06
SD	11.99	8.00	18.08
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	50	40	+39
Min	8	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	20.19	-2.25
SD	8.43	9.83	14.72
CV	0.47	0.49	—
Max	38	38	+29
Min	9	7	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.69	21.94	-6.25
SD	7.34	10.03	13.50
CV	0.47	0.46	—
Max	26	41	+14
Min	3	9	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	18.75%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	25.75	-5.75
SD	9.90	6.08	11.62
CV	0.49	0.24	—
Max	41	37	+14
Min	7	17	-27

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.44	+0.3
Allowed	0.52	-0.4
Differential	0.80	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	8.80	+3.20
2	New England Patriots	10	6.92	+3.08
3	San Francisco 49ers	13	10.51	+2.49
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	9.00	+2.00
5	San Diego Chargers	11	9.42	+1.58

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	2	7.36	-5.36
2	Washington Redskins	3	6.84	-3.84
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	6.74	-2.74
4	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5.50	-2.50
5	Philadelphia Eagles	7	8.84	-1.84

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 330
2	New York Giants	6	Nov 21 – Dec 24	1 in 156
3	San Francisco 49ers	10	Oct 9 – Dec 17	1 in 65
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Nov 6 – Dec 18	1 in 49
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 39

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	11	Oct 3 – Dec 18	1 in 628
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 267
3	New York Giants	7	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 172
4	Seattle Seahawks	6	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 78
5	Los Angeles Rams	7	Nov 13 – Dec 24	1 in 51

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	42.66%	32.83%	18.25%	6.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	39.01%	32.76%	20.87%	7.36%
Houston Oilers	15.26%	25.43%	37.62%	21.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.07%	8.97%	23.25%	64.70%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	38.74%	26.38%	17.59%	11.17%	6.12%
Buffalo Bills	30.04%	26.54%	20.28%	14.30%	8.84%
New York Jets	15.57%	20.41%	23.48%	22.16%	18.37%
New England Patriots	8.48%	14.17%	19.77%	26.20%	31.38%
Indianapolis Colts	7.16%	12.50%	18.87%	26.17%	35.29%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	39.43%	24.83%	16.97%	11.72%	7.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	24.81%	24.04%	20.84%	16.88%	13.42%
Los Angeles Raiders	13.08%	17.99%	21.03%	22.99%	24.91%
Seattle Seahawks	12.00%	17.03%	20.87%	23.94%	26.16%
Denver Broncos	10.68%	16.11%	20.28%	24.47%	28.47%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	34.59%	25.47%	19.06%	13.66%	7.22%
Green Bay Packers	28.21%	25.69%	20.85%	15.45%	9.80%
Chicago Bears	17.78%	20.94%	22.84%	21.75%	16.68%
Detroit Lions	14.72%	18.79%	22.12%	24.20%	20.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.70%	9.11%	15.12%	24.93%	46.14%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	65.86%	21.02%	8.41%	3.56%	1.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.25%	32.63%	24.06%	16.52%	9.54%
New York Giants	8.33%	20.84%	26.02%	24.77%	20.05%
Arizona Cardinals	5.34%	15.08%	23.31%	27.96%	28.32%
Washington Redskins	3.22%	10.44%	18.20%	27.20%	40.94%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	76.60%	16.26%	5.44%	1.70%
Atlanta Falcons	8.83%	30.28%	31.24%	29.65%
New Orleans Saints	7.87%	28.11%	31.60%	32.42%
Los Angeles Rams	6.70%	25.35%	31.72%	36.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Diego Chargers	17.79%	13.93%	11.66%	10.08%	8.44%	7.43%	6.54%	5.71%	4.82%	4.35%	3.50%	2.64%	1.99%	1.12%
Miami Dolphins	14.44%	13.00%	11.50%	9.77%	9.04%	8.15%	7.02%	6.40%	5.23%	4.50%	3.95%	2.98%	2.37%	1.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.16%	12.40%	12.26%	10.31%	9.77%	9.27%	7.36%	6.46%	5.85%	4.49%	3.54%	2.95%	2.05%	1.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.42%	11.29%	10.89%	9.75%	9.31%	9.10%	7.62%	6.82%	6.76%	5.28%	4.18%	3.56%	2.59%	1.43%
Buffalo Bills	10.50%	10.37%	9.86%	9.29%	9.13%	8.39%	7.56%	7.28%	6.43%	5.69%	5.30%	4.22%	3.29%	2.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	10.18%	9.41%	9.06%	9.44%	8.66%	7.93%	7.95%	7.29%	6.61%	6.34%	5.62%	4.81%	4.06%	2.64%
New York Jets	4.35%	5.35%	6.18%	6.78%	7.20%	7.50%	7.85%	8.50%	8.29%	8.18%	8.40%	7.82%	7.01%	6.58%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.57%	5.27%	5.71%	6.75%	6.97%	7.14%	7.95%	7.96%	8.06%	8.68%	8.59%	8.06%	7.83%	6.46%
Seattle Seahawks	4.25%	4.75%	5.46%	6.57%	6.84%	7.17%	8.02%	7.96%	8.07%	8.98%	8.61%	8.46%	8.35%	6.51%
Houston Oilers	2.91%	4.19%	5.07%	5.76%	6.63%	7.56%	8.14%	8.68%	9.90%	9.10%	8.64%	8.99%	8.18%	6.24%
Denver Broncos	3.43%	4.24%	4.81%	6.00%	6.33%	6.82%	7.84%	8.09%	8.22%	9.20%	9.24%	8.93%	9.27%	7.60%
New England Patriots	2.03%	2.80%	3.51%	4.09%	5.05%	5.73%	6.49%	7.33%	8.01%	8.86%	10.37%	10.72%	11.56%	13.45%
Indianapolis Colts	1.67%	2.44%	3.10%	4.00%	4.70%	5.20%	6.28%	6.98%	7.71%	8.96%	10.19%	11.22%	12.40%	15.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.31%	0.56%	0.94%	1.43%	1.91%	2.62%	3.36%	4.53%	6.04%	7.40%	9.86%	14.62%	19.04%	27.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	37.50%	21.09%	12.96%	9.10%	5.82%	4.23%	2.99%	2.20%	1.50%	1.04%	0.69%	0.47%	0.29%	0.12%
San Francisco 49ers	27.14%	22.94%	16.28%	9.80%	6.82%	5.28%	3.59%	2.59%	2.02%	1.40%	0.92%	0.68%	0.36%	0.17%
Minnesota Vikings	7.56%	11.49%	12.59%	10.77%	10.27%	8.71%	7.69%	7.11%	5.94%	5.19%	4.66%	3.47%	2.64%	1.91%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.54%	8.52%	9.95%	11.85%	10.39%	9.37%	8.63%	7.61%	6.48%	5.77%	4.87%	3.77%	3.05%	2.20%
Green Bay Packers	5.67%	9.30%	10.92%	10.35%	10.16%	9.04%	8.23%	7.62%	6.64%	5.95%	5.43%	4.28%	3.57%	2.85%
Chicago Bears	2.80%	5.71%	7.43%	7.67%	8.46%	8.09%	8.35%	8.55%	8.08%	8.09%	7.86%	6.83%	6.22%	5.85%
New York Giants	3.13%	4.30%	5.76%	7.99%	8.08%	8.45%	9.11%	8.91%	8.51%	8.38%	7.93%	7.05%	6.80%	5.61%
Detroit Lions	2.50%	4.70%	5.93%	6.71%	7.45%	7.36%	8.27%	8.57%	8.41%	8.34%	8.60%	8.19%	7.61%	7.37%
Arizona Cardinals	1.78%	2.75%	3.92%	5.88%	6.44%	7.18%	8.28%	8.57%	8.66%	9.50%	9.40%	9.27%	9.51%	8.85%
Atlanta Falcons	1.15%	2.45%	3.65%	4.88%	6.49%	8.21%	7.92%	8.52%	9.47%	9.20%	9.22%	10.65%	9.80%	8.39%
New Orleans Saints	1.02%	2.15%	3.19%	4.40%	6.02%	7.52%	7.59%	8.16%	9.58%	9.38%	9.82%	11.02%	10.68%	9.48%
Los Angeles Rams	0.76%	1.75%	2.75%	3.79%	5.44%	6.84%	7.06%	7.96%	9.50%	9.43%	10.11%	11.68%	11.87%	11.06%
Washington Redskins	1.01%	1.59%	2.50%	4.00%	4.43%	5.47%	6.80%	7.23%	8.14%	9.70%	10.26%	10.93%	12.93%	15.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.45%	1.27%	2.15%	2.81%	3.73%	4.27%	5.47%	6.40%	7.08%	8.65%	10.23%	11.71%	14.66%	21.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	26.46%	14.95%	11.64%	8.17%	6.76%	5.27%	4.67%	3.70%	2.99%	2.52%	2.27%	1.88%	1.50%	1.26%	1.15%	0.97%	0.81%	0.64%	0.52%	0.43%	0.39%	0.31%	0.24%	0.18%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	18.65%	12.81%	11.77%	8.96%	7.72%	6.72%	4.93%	4.56%	3.62%	3.17%	2.60%	2.42%	2.01%	1.83%	1.39%	1.19%	1.07%	0.92%	0.81%	0.69%	0.54%	0.42%	0.38%	0.30%	0.22%	0.15%	0.11%	0.06%
San Diego Chargers	7.11%	8.63%	7.03%	7.42%	6.04%	6.21%	5.33%	5.18%	4.53%	4.43%	3.84%	3.77%	3.41%	3.18%	3.05%	2.85%	2.55%	2.31%	2.19%	2.05%	1.95%	1.57%	1.33%	1.17%	1.06%	0.80%	0.61%	0.37%
Miami Dolphins	5.46%	7.25%	6.15%	6.89%	5.83%	6.04%	5.16%	5.17%	4.70%	4.63%	4.19%	4.09%	3.74%	3.55%	3.35%	3.18%	2.80%	2.50%	2.46%	2.19%	2.04%	1.84%	1.64%	1.44%	1.20%	1.12%	0.80%	0.62%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.40%	6.30%	5.63%	6.58%	5.70%	6.42%	5.18%	5.66%	5.04%	5.03%	4.35%	4.68%	3.99%	3.96%	3.21%	3.17%	2.87%	3.13%	2.42%	2.23%	1.88%	1.83%	1.60%	1.44%	1.13%	0.99%	0.68%	0.49%
Minnesota Vikings	4.59%	4.95%	6.01%	5.60%	6.10%	5.62%	5.45%	5.09%	5.07%	4.78%	4.47%	4.13%	3.80%	3.70%	3.69%	3.36%	3.14%	2.79%	2.69%	2.54%	2.38%	2.19%	1.84%	1.67%	1.47%	1.19%	1.03%	0.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.36%	5.48%	5.43%	5.68%	5.53%	5.51%	5.06%	4.97%	5.06%	4.58%	4.31%	4.55%	4.06%	4.08%	3.42%	3.37%	3.14%	3.61%	2.65%	2.82%	2.07%	2.29%	1.89%	1.80%	1.43%	1.27%	0.90%	0.67%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.49%	4.17%	4.93%	4.52%	5.39%	4.89%	5.77%	5.12%	5.04%	4.86%	4.81%	4.46%	4.19%	4.09%	3.89%	3.72%	3.28%	3.11%	2.84%	2.80%	2.49%	2.33%	1.99%	1.84%	1.63%	1.37%	1.14%	0.86%
Buffalo Bills	3.69%	5.36%	4.93%	5.45%	5.13%	5.14%	4.72%	4.95%	4.83%	4.49%	4.47%	4.08%	4.07%	3.76%	3.80%	3.53%	3.37%	3.19%	3.02%	2.81%	2.72%	2.50%	2.20%	2.06%	1.74%	1.57%	1.39%	1.05%
Green Bay Packers	3.31%	3.73%	4.96%	4.70%	5.41%	5.04%	5.20%	5.00%	4.91%	4.75%	4.51%	4.35%	4.04%	4.02%	3.79%	3.75%	3.38%	3.18%	3.14%	2.91%	2.87%	2.51%	2.32%	2.14%	1.93%	1.66%	1.49%	1.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.62%	4.98%	4.67%	4.99%	4.85%	4.75%	4.87%	4.84%	4.53%	4.39%	4.34%	4.08%	4.14%	3.79%	3.86%	3.73%	3.50%	3.12%	3.15%	3.05%	2.94%	2.77%	2.36%	2.30%	2.07%	1.84%	1.45%	1.05%
Chicago Bears	1.49%	2.02%	2.89%	3.02%	3.60%	3.61%	3.90%	3.79%	3.82%	4.17%	4.16%	4.07%	4.11%	4.14%	4.18%	4.28%	4.02%	3.98%	4.02%	4.08%	4.02%	3.74%	3.59%	3.44%	3.33%	3.08%	3.05%	2.42%
New York Giants	1.64%	1.87%	2.48%	2.54%	3.12%	3.00%	3.89%	3.77%	3.94%	4.09%	4.39%	4.16%	4.14%	4.38%	4.41%	4.44%	4.28%	4.08%	4.21%	4.16%	4.14%	3.77%	3.74%	3.33%	3.61%	3.13%	3.05%	2.24%
New York Jets	1.28%	2.27%	2.36%	2.86%	2.97%	3.28%	3.40%	3.60%	3.77%	3.67%	3.81%	3.81%	4.15%	3.92%	4.40%	4.18%	4.25%	4.03%	4.32%	4.06%	4.10%	4.19%	3.97%	3.94%	3.60%	3.50%	3.31%	2.98%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.35%	2.34%	2.35%	2.85%	2.91%	3.14%	3.37%	3.49%	3.58%	3.69%	3.85%	3.69%	4.04%	3.90%	4.17%	4.01%	4.23%	3.98%	4.44%	4.29%	4.37%	4.15%	4.06%	3.94%	3.81%	3.65%	3.45%	2.88%
Seattle Seahawks	1.12%	2.17%	2.17%	2.73%	2.68%	3.05%	3.09%	3.54%	3.32%	3.75%	3.87%	3.81%	3.86%	4.06%	4.19%	4.26%	4.19%	4.01%	4.53%	4.42%	4.35%	4.25%	4.35%	4.08%	4.15%	3.65%	3.39%	2.93%
Detroit Lions	1.37%	1.56%	2.40%	2.39%	2.99%	2.97%	3.43%	3.21%	3.68%	3.64%	3.71%	3.74%	4.07%	3.99%	4.30%	4.23%	4.27%	4.04%	4.15%	4.29%	4.24%	4.36%	4.08%	4.09%	4.05%	3.82%	3.80%	3.13%
Houston Oilers	0.82%	1.49%	1.75%	2.23%	2.38%	2.61%	2.71%	3.04%	3.34%	3.35%	3.56%	3.92%	4.17%	4.26%	4.12%	4.23%	4.54%	5.21%	4.36%	4.59%	4.09%	4.70%	4.42%	4.65%	4.13%	4.36%	3.55%	3.40%
Denver Broncos	0.91%	1.70%	1.83%	2.38%	2.35%	2.68%	2.90%	3.18%	3.19%	3.41%	3.63%	3.52%	3.99%	3.92%	4.29%	4.17%	4.22%	4.13%	4.62%	4.56%	4.66%	4.52%	4.37%	4.45%	4.68%	4.30%	4.01%	3.45%
Arizona Cardinals	0.88%	1.14%	1.55%	1.62%	2.11%	2.18%	3.01%	2.81%	3.12%	3.31%	3.75%	3.58%	3.86%	3.97%	4.26%	4.37%	4.40%	4.22%	4.57%	4.71%	4.82%	4.54%	4.72%	4.72%	4.98%	4.35%	4.65%	3.80%
Atlanta Falcons	0.57%	0.75%	1.29%	1.37%	1.84%	1.99%	2.33%	2.45%	3.08%	3.22%	3.45%	4.01%	3.82%	4.01%	3.88%	4.08%	4.55%	4.94%	4.36%	4.56%	4.61%	4.90%	5.10%	5.41%	4.99%	5.25%	4.61%	4.57%
New Orleans Saints	0.50%	0.68%	1.13%	1.14%	1.64%	1.67%	2.19%	2.24%	2.86%	2.89%	3.22%	3.69%	3.53%	3.91%	3.71%	4.17%	4.42%	4.88%	4.46%	4.82%	4.75%	5.12%	5.39%	5.53%	5.33%	5.72%	5.14%	5.27%
New England Patriots	0.50%	0.98%	1.20%	1.51%	1.70%	1.85%	2.04%	2.22%	2.50%	2.51%	2.90%	2.89%	3.45%	3.34%	3.62%	3.75%	4.07%	4.09%	4.47%	4.55%	4.93%	5.24%	5.24%	5.63%	5.56%	6.08%	6.40%	6.77%
Los Angeles Rams	0.34%	0.56%	0.90%	0.95%	1.32%	1.52%	1.76%	2.00%	2.51%	2.74%	2.89%	3.38%	3.43%	3.58%	3.55%	3.90%	4.49%	4.95%	4.48%	4.69%	4.97%	5.31%	5.67%	5.88%	5.71%	6.44%	5.93%	6.16%
Indianapolis Colts	0.40%	0.81%	0.93%	1.39%	1.33%	1.78%	1.89%	2.19%	2.32%	2.48%	2.66%	2.73%	3.13%	3.29%	3.65%	3.63%	3.80%	3.91%	4.56%	4.70%	5.00%	5.07%	5.63%	5.61%	6.26%	6.20%	7.08%	7.62%
Washington Redskins	0.45%	0.61%	0.85%	1.01%	1.30%	1.42%	1.88%	1.98%	2.11%	2.49%	2.79%	2.82%	3.05%	3.40%	3.72%	3.88%	4.08%	3.96%	4.84%	4.77%	5.17%	5.15%	5.61%	5.47%	6.49%	6.41%	7.29%	6.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.20%	0.29%	0.59%	0.74%	0.93%	1.19%	1.29%	1.46%	1.69%	2.01%	2.08%	2.26%	2.58%	2.94%	3.01%	3.34%	3.54%	3.72%	4.26%	4.47%	5.13%	5.11%	6.02%	6.01%	7.41%	7.41%	9.86%	10.43%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%	0.15%	0.17%	0.31%	0.37%	0.47%	0.59%	0.79%	0.83%	0.95%	1.14%	1.42%	1.66%	1.79%	1.96%	2.23%	2.74%	3.36%	3.44%	3.75%	4.39%	5.33%	6.25%	7.49%	7.90%	10.58%	11.74%	18.13%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	17.79%	13.18%	8.46%	12.42%	9.37%	7.81%	30.96%
Miami Dolphins	14.44%	13.27%	11.03%	9.78%	9.11%	8.14%	34.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.16%	13.25%	17.25%	7.86%	8.21%	8.22%	33.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.42%	11.97%	15.62%	7.52%	8.02%	8.09%	37.36%
Buffalo Bills	10.50%	10.43%	9.11%	9.47%	9.39%	8.49%	42.60%
Kansas City Chiefs	10.18%	8.59%	6.04%	11.55%	9.51%	8.53%	45.59%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.57%	4.81%	3.70%	7.83%	7.60%	7.56%	63.92%
New York Jets	4.35%	5.51%	5.71%	6.58%	7.34%	7.65%	62.86%
Seattle Seahawks	4.25%	4.31%	3.44%	7.56%	7.44%	7.70%	65.31%
Denver Broncos	3.43%	3.94%	3.31%	6.63%	6.76%	7.26%	68.68%
Houston Oilers	2.91%	4.50%	7.84%	4.40%	5.95%	7.01%	67.39%
New England Patriots	2.03%	2.98%	3.48%	3.79%	4.98%	5.78%	76.96%
Indianapolis Colts	1.67%	2.59%	2.90%	3.68%	4.71%	5.36%	79.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.31%	0.66%	2.10%	0.92%	1.61%	2.40%	91.99%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	37.50%	19.33%	9.03%	13.57%	6.70%	4.49%	9.38%
San Francisco 49ers	27.14%	25.52%	23.93%	4.06%	4.34%	4.07%	10.92%
Minnesota Vikings	7.56%	12.62%	14.41%	8.19%	9.93%	8.60%	38.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.54%	6.00%	3.72%	18.21%	11.95%	9.96%	42.63%
Green Bay Packers	5.67%	10.15%	12.38%	8.22%	9.92%	8.97%	44.68%
New York Giants	3.13%	3.08%	2.13%	10.96%	9.07%	9.09%	62.55%
Chicago Bears	2.80%	6.37%	8.62%	6.04%	8.14%	8.09%	59.94%
Detroit Lions	2.50%	5.28%	6.93%	5.27%	7.21%	7.34%	65.46%
Arizona Cardinals	1.78%	2.05%	1.51%	7.49%	7.19%	7.67%	72.31%
Atlanta Falcons	1.15%	2.64%	5.04%	4.22%	6.21%	7.85%	72.88%
New Orleans Saints	1.02%	2.31%	4.54%	3.73%	5.69%	7.26%	75.44%
Washington Redskins	1.01%	1.19%	1.03%	4.84%	4.94%	5.75%	81.24%
Los Angeles Rams	0.76%	1.94%	4.00%	3.11%	5.16%	6.59%	78.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.45%	1.52%	2.73%	2.08%	3.55%	4.26%	85.41%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+14.29%

Fortress

57.14%42.86%

Elo Value

Home Edge

20 Elo

0.049 points per Elo point

049.9860

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.50 points

Lean Home

-8+2.44+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.0

Open Race

124811

Champion Preseason Odds

23%

San Francisco 49ers, 1st of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

30.4%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.54 · As Expected: 1.54 to 2.12 · Elevated: 2.12 to 2.89 · High Variance: 2.89 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.32 · Close: 5.32 to 7.2 · Off Target: 7.2 to 9.39 · Well Off Target: 9.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.23 · As Expected: 3.23 to 5.38 · More Than Expected: 5.38 to 8.6 · Far More Than Expected: 8.6 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.01 wins

As Expected

01.935

Average Finish Error

Expected

4.11

Pinpoint

06.2615

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

97.47%

Pittsburgh Steelers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

0.42%

Houston Oilers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

5 of 28

Several Outliers

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 12

Fewer Than Expected

04.312

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.62

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

87%

Lopsided

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

27%

Some Drama

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.22

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.08

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.34

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

42%

Upset-Prone

0%39%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.61

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.03

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.057

Within Noise

00.0940.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	80.51%	80.51%	56.22%	34.94%	23.22%
Dallas Cowboys	81.20%	81.20%	55.14%	33.05%	21.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.47%	48.47%	29.13%	17.24%	7.87%
San Diego Chargers	53.50%	53.50%	30.76%	16.99%	7.34%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	50.56%	50.56%	28.75%	16.09%	7.00%
Miami Dolphins	49.48%	49.48%	26.83%	13.81%	5.70%
Green Bay Packers	39.50%	38.45%	17.37%	7.38%	3.93%
Kansas City Chiefs	38.09%	38.09%	19.67%	9.84%	3.89%
Minnesota Vikings	42.34%	42.34%	18.55%	7.33%	3.69%
Buffalo Bills	38.20%	38.20%	17.05%	7.39%	2.50%
Philadelphia Eagles	43.84%	33.55%	11.67%	3.97%	1.71%
Los Angeles Raiders	26.70%	22.25%	10.12%	4.48%	1.65%
Detroit Lions	26.75%	20.96%	8.05%	2.98%	1.44%
New York Giants	31.24%	20.95%	7.70%	2.84%	1.34%
New England Patriots	18.03%	14.18%	6.90%	3.17%	1.25%
Denver Broncos	23.96%	17.94%	7.47%	3.05%	0.99%
Chicago Bears	30.89%	22.39%	7.40%	2.29%	0.98%
Arizona Cardinals	23.87%	14.14%	4.86%	1.57%	0.73%
New York Jets	27.27%	19.86%	7.09%	2.39%	0.63%
Seattle Seahawks	26.13%	17.92%	6.17%	2.12%	0.60%
New Orleans Saints	21.23%	11.95%	4.05%	1.31%	0.57%
Indianapolis Colts	16.65%	10.84%	4.15%	1.54%	0.46%
Houston Oilers	25.20%	15.82%	5.16%	1.67%	0.41%
Atlanta Falcons	23.32%	12.37%	3.71%	1.05%	0.39%
Washington Redskins	16.56%	7.29%	1.83%	0.49%	0.17%
Los Angeles Rams	18.85%	7.90%	1.95%	0.42%	0.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.62%	6.01%	1.52%	0.37%	0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.04%	2.89%	0.74%	0.21%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		70.3%0.66%	36.5%3.87%	51.8%2.59%	63.1%2.40%	58.4%1.40%	44.6%4.04%	49.6%2.99%	42.5%3.78%	44.0%1.52%	61.5%2.46%	34.6%3.69%	39.3%4.12%	59.8%2.95%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.7%0.66%		18.4%0.83%	30.7%0.42%	41.3%0.33%	40.1%0.30%	22.6%0.65%	30.9%0.47%	21.1%0.69%	31.7%0.31%	38.0%0.49%	17.7%0.70%	21.3%0.71%	39.0%0.48%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	63.5%3.87%	81.6%0.83%		65.1%2.87%	73.1%3.07%	68.9%1.87%	55.5%4.12%	60.5%3.17%	53.1%3.95%	59.1%2.04%	72.2%3.02%	46.0%5.41%	51.1%4.23%	73.5%3.10%
Denver Broncos	48.2%2.59%	69.3%0.42%	34.9%2.87%		61.5%1.68%	54.5%1.12%	40.5%1.90%	44.7%1.24%	37.0%2.84%	43.5%1.24%	58.6%1.85%	32.4%2.67%	35.7%2.33%	58.2%1.20%
Houston Oilers	36.9%2.40%	58.7%0.33%	26.9%3.07%	38.5%1.68%		44.7%1.09%	29.4%2.39%	35.9%1.78%	26.3%2.43%	30.8%1.18%	48.5%1.72%	23.4%2.71%	26.3%2.65%	48.3%1.79%
Indianapolis Colts	41.6%1.40%	59.9%0.30%	31.1%1.87%	45.5%1.12%	55.3%1.09%		36.1%1.77%	43.0%1.27%	32.8%1.65%	38.4%0.51%	53.7%0.86%	29.5%1.77%	32.4%1.98%	54.3%1.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.4%4.04%	77.4%0.65%	44.5%4.12%	59.5%1.90%	70.6%2.39%	63.9%1.77%		54.8%2.20%	46.0%4.14%	53.5%1.93%	66.1%2.91%	41.9%3.86%	45.4%3.52%	68.6%2.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	50.4%2.99%	69.1%0.47%	39.5%3.17%	55.3%1.24%	64.1%1.78%	57.0%1.27%	45.2%2.20%		42.4%3.08%	46.6%1.35%	60.7%2.14%	35.2%2.91%	40.3%2.61%	62.6%1.47%
Miami Dolphins	57.5%3.78%	78.9%0.69%	46.9%3.95%	63.0%2.84%	73.7%2.43%	67.2%1.65%	54.0%4.14%	57.6%3.08%		54.1%1.74%	67.6%2.83%	42.2%3.70%	47.7%4.22%	68.6%3.01%
New England Patriots	56.0%1.52%	68.3%0.31%	40.9%2.04%	56.5%1.24%	69.2%1.18%	61.6%0.51%	46.5%1.93%	53.4%1.35%	45.9%1.74%		63.4%0.96%	35.7%1.88%	43.5%1.97%	63.4%1.41%
New York Jets	38.5%2.46%	62.0%0.49%	27.8%3.02%	41.4%1.85%	51.5%1.72%	46.3%0.86%	33.9%2.91%	39.3%2.14%	32.4%2.83%	36.6%0.96%		27.1%2.86%	29.6%3.16%	51.9%2.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.4%3.69%	82.3%0.70%	54.0%5.41%	67.6%2.67%	76.6%2.71%	70.5%1.77%	58.1%3.86%	64.8%2.91%	57.8%3.70%	64.3%1.88%	72.9%2.86%		55.3%4.11%	74.3%2.98%
San Diego Chargers	60.7%4.12%	78.7%0.71%	48.9%4.23%	64.3%2.33%	73.7%2.65%	67.6%1.98%	54.6%3.52%	59.7%2.61%	52.3%4.22%	56.5%1.97%	70.4%3.16%	44.7%4.11%		70.9%2.46%
Seattle Seahawks	40.2%2.95%	61.0%0.48%	26.5%3.10%	41.8%1.20%	51.7%1.79%	45.7%1.07%	31.4%2.21%	37.4%1.47%	31.4%3.01%	36.6%1.41%	48.1%2.02%	25.7%2.98%	29.1%2.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		57.0%1.45%	52.8%2.17%	23.9%2.29%	45.8%1.86%	38.5%2.84%	66.7%1.09%	40.5%3.07%	49.7%1.25%	45.1%1.43%	47.0%2.34%	22.3%2.64%	63.4%0.83%	64.7%0.60%
Atlanta Falcons	43.0%1.45%		44.8%1.84%	21.0%2.32%	37.4%1.54%	33.2%2.34%	62.1%0.64%	35.4%2.58%	43.6%0.74%	41.4%2.03%	42.0%2.84%	19.3%3.37%	59.1%0.68%	59.6%0.95%
Chicago Bears	47.2%2.17%	55.2%1.84%		23.8%3.06%	41.6%1.81%	37.4%3.21%	65.1%1.47%	39.7%3.44%	51.2%1.62%	46.5%2.87%	47.6%4.35%	19.5%2.74%	60.3%0.77%	61.3%1.54%
Dallas Cowboys	76.1%2.29%	79.0%2.32%	76.2%3.06%		70.0%2.84%	64.1%3.92%	86.3%1.83%	69.5%3.92%	74.6%2.18%	71.9%2.77%	73.5%3.45%	46.1%2.23%	84.1%1.36%	82.3%1.60%
Detroit Lions	54.2%1.86%	62.6%1.54%	58.4%1.81%	30.0%2.84%		43.0%2.57%	70.6%1.29%	47.0%2.91%	57.8%1.43%	51.4%2.37%	52.6%3.73%	26.2%2.48%	66.1%0.64%	65.4%1.27%
Green Bay Packers	61.5%2.84%	66.8%2.34%	62.6%3.21%	35.9%3.92%	57.0%2.57%		77.5%1.92%	53.2%4.58%	64.8%2.30%	58.9%3.96%	61.4%5.50%	31.2%3.12%	71.1%1.17%	72.7%2.05%
Los Angeles Rams	33.3%1.09%	37.9%0.64%	34.9%1.47%	13.7%1.83%	29.4%1.29%	22.5%1.92%		26.7%2.10%	33.5%0.60%	30.4%1.50%	33.8%2.31%	14.3%2.72%	45.1%0.59%	47.5%0.77%
Minnesota Vikings	59.5%3.07%	64.6%2.58%	60.3%3.44%	30.5%3.92%	53.0%2.91%	46.8%4.58%	73.3%2.10%		60.9%2.29%	54.3%3.87%	57.0%5.82%	28.9%3.14%	70.5%1.28%	73.2%2.11%
New Orleans Saints	50.3%1.25%	56.4%0.74%	48.8%1.62%	25.4%2.18%	42.2%1.43%	35.2%2.30%	66.5%0.60%	39.1%2.29%		44.4%1.67%	48.1%2.65%	21.2%3.04%	59.3%0.63%	58.4%0.82%
New York Giants	54.9%1.43%	58.6%2.03%	53.5%2.87%	28.1%2.77%	48.6%2.37%	41.1%3.96%	69.6%1.50%	45.7%3.87%	55.6%1.67%		52.8%3.38%	24.1%3.38%	67.2%1.13%	66.4%0.87%
Philadelphia Eagles	53.0%2.34%	58.0%2.84%	52.4%4.35%	26.5%3.45%	47.4%3.73%	38.6%5.50%	66.2%2.31%	43.0%5.82%	51.9%2.65%	47.2%3.38%		22.3%4.18%	63.0%1.72%	65.5%1.54%
San Francisco 49ers	77.7%2.64%	80.7%3.37%	80.5%2.74%	53.9%2.23%	73.8%2.48%	68.8%3.12%	85.7%2.72%	71.1%3.14%	78.8%3.04%	75.9%3.38%	77.7%4.18%		87.1%1.37%	86.0%1.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36.6%0.83%	40.9%0.68%	39.7%0.77%	15.9%1.36%	33.9%0.64%	28.9%1.17%	54.9%0.59%	29.5%1.28%	40.7%0.63%	32.8%1.13%	37.0%1.72%	12.9%1.37%		53.7%0.44%
Washington Redskins	35.3%0.60%	40.4%0.95%	38.7%1.54%	17.7%1.60%	34.6%1.27%	27.3%2.05%	52.5%0.77%	26.8%2.11%	41.6%0.82%	33.6%0.87%	34.5%1.54%	14.0%1.99%	46.3%0.44%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		72.7%0.37%	38.6%5.96%	54.0%1.69%	62.4%1.59%	55.4%0.95%	43.8%3.72%	49.3%2.22%	41.6%5.94%	46.0%1.27%	58.3%1.84%	36.6%5.34%	39.1%5.52%	60.6%1.80%
Cincinnati Bengals	27.3%0.37%		19.1%0.26%	26.2%0.13%	47.3%0.07%	26.0%0.08%	22.4%0.29%	30.5%0.14%	24.8%0.43%	24.3%0.10%	39.3%0.17%	17.0%0.26%	22.5%0.47%	40.5%0.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	61.4%5.96%	80.9%0.26%		64.2%2.38%	71.3%1.84%	67.2%1.57%	55.4%5.22%	60.6%3.19%	52.0%7.65%	55.6%2.03%	70.2%2.84%	46.5%7.44%	49.7%7.66%	71.0%2.51%
Denver Broncos	46.0%1.69%	73.8%0.13%	35.8%2.38%		58.7%0.73%	53.3%0.45%	41.3%1.65%	44.3%0.89%	38.7%2.47%	44.4%0.65%	57.3%0.83%	33.1%2.44%	36.6%2.92%	57.5%0.73%
Houston Oilers	37.6%1.59%	52.7%0.07%	28.7%1.84%	41.3%0.73%		44.0%0.47%	30.6%1.58%	40.3%0.88%	28.8%2.50%	31.7%0.62%	45.3%0.88%	25.9%1.73%	25.5%2.23%	46.3%0.69%
Indianapolis Colts	44.6%0.95%	74.0%0.08%	32.8%1.57%	46.7%0.45%	56.0%0.47%		33.1%1.10%	47.8%0.56%	36.5%1.35%	42.2%0.27%	53.1%0.41%	30.3%1.57%	32.8%1.65%	51.0%0.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	56.2%3.72%	77.6%0.29%	44.6%5.22%	58.7%1.65%	69.4%1.58%	66.9%1.10%		54.5%2.25%	47.5%4.89%	53.9%1.35%	65.8%2.02%	42.2%5.13%	46.0%7.20%	67.4%1.70%
Los Angeles Raiders	50.7%2.22%	69.5%0.14%	39.4%3.19%	55.7%0.89%	59.7%0.88%	52.2%0.56%	45.5%2.25%		42.2%2.93%	44.9%0.66%	59.3%1.16%	38.9%2.77%	39.8%3.70%	59.0%0.91%
Miami Dolphins	58.4%5.94%	75.2%0.43%	48.0%7.65%	61.3%2.47%	71.2%2.50%	63.5%1.35%	52.5%4.89%	57.8%2.93%		53.7%1.82%	65.1%2.70%	44.6%7.25%	47.0%7.24%	68.5%2.32%
New England Patriots	54.0%1.27%	75.7%0.10%	44.4%2.03%	55.6%0.65%	68.3%0.62%	57.8%0.27%	46.1%1.35%	55.1%0.66%	46.3%1.82%		64.7%0.50%	39.8%2.14%	41.8%2.12%	62.4%0.64%
New York Jets	41.7%1.84%	60.7%0.17%	29.8%2.84%	42.7%0.83%	54.7%0.88%	46.9%0.41%	34.2%2.02%	40.7%1.16%	34.9%2.70%	35.3%0.50%		26.5%2.92%	30.7%2.72%	52.3%0.89%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.4%5.34%	83.0%0.26%	53.5%7.44%	66.9%2.44%	74.1%1.73%	69.7%1.57%	57.8%5.13%	61.1%2.77%	55.4%7.25%	60.2%2.14%	73.5%2.92%		52.5%7.15%	72.5%2.32%
San Diego Chargers	60.9%5.52%	77.5%0.47%	50.3%7.66%	63.4%2.92%	74.5%2.23%	67.2%1.65%	54.0%7.20%	60.2%3.70%	53.0%7.24%	58.2%2.12%	69.3%2.72%	47.5%7.15%		71.4%2.92%
Seattle Seahawks	39.4%1.80%	59.5%0.12%	29.0%2.51%	42.5%0.73%	53.7%0.69%	49.0%0.39%	32.6%1.70%	41.0%0.91%	31.5%2.32%	37.6%0.64%	47.7%0.89%	27.5%2.32%	28.6%2.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		53.2%0.27%	55.3%0.60%	26.6%4.70%	46.6%0.61%	39.5%1.23%	68.1%0.16%	40.5%1.22%	55.5%0.32%	44.2%0.46%	48.4%0.83%	22.9%3.45%	61.1%0.16%	67.9%0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	46.8%0.27%		47.6%0.74%	20.5%3.13%	38.7%0.64%	32.8%1.17%	55.1%0.10%	36.7%1.61%	42.9%0.16%	37.4%0.42%	41.8%0.75%	19.7%3.08%	55.9%0.18%	52.1%0.14%
Chicago Bears	44.7%0.60%	52.4%0.74%		23.8%5.87%	46.3%0.76%	38.9%1.53%	60.7%0.46%	37.7%1.81%	51.4%0.66%	49.7%0.96%	46.1%1.56%	23.3%6.99%	59.0%0.17%	59.3%0.29%
Dallas Cowboys	73.4%4.70%	79.5%3.13%	76.2%5.87%		72.0%5.37%	65.6%9.72%	84.2%1.93%	67.1%10.26%	75.7%2.91%	71.7%7.07%	73.9%11.70%	47.0%14.63%	81.6%1.60%	80.7%2.32%
Detroit Lions	53.4%0.61%	61.3%0.64%	53.7%0.76%	28.0%5.37%		44.5%1.46%	68.2%0.45%	46.1%1.66%	55.3%0.69%	49.8%0.81%	51.4%1.59%	27.6%6.49%	62.1%0.14%	72.4%0.31%
Green Bay Packers	60.5%1.23%	67.2%1.17%	61.1%1.53%	34.4%9.72%	55.5%1.46%		71.2%0.82%	51.5%3.72%	65.4%1.30%	60.6%1.85%	59.4%2.83%	33.0%11.87%	72.3%0.33%	71.9%0.63%
Los Angeles Rams	31.9%0.16%	44.9%0.10%	39.3%0.46%	15.8%1.93%	31.8%0.45%	28.8%0.82%		29.1%1.03%	38.2%0.11%	30.5%0.26%	36.9%0.53%	15.4%1.87%	45.7%0.12%	44.0%0.08%
Minnesota Vikings	59.5%1.22%	63.3%1.61%	62.3%1.81%	32.9%10.26%	53.9%1.66%	48.5%3.72%	70.9%1.03%		60.3%1.43%	55.0%1.93%	59.3%3.43%	31.4%13.08%	69.8%0.44%	69.9%0.71%
New Orleans Saints	44.5%0.32%	57.1%0.16%	48.6%0.66%	24.3%2.91%	44.7%0.69%	34.6%1.30%	61.8%0.11%	39.7%1.43%		44.2%0.39%	49.4%0.76%	23.0%2.91%	53.2%0.19%	59.6%0.14%
New York Giants	55.8%0.46%	62.6%0.42%	50.3%0.96%	28.3%7.07%	50.2%0.81%	39.4%1.85%	69.5%0.26%	45.0%1.93%	55.8%0.39%		53.6%1.35%	25.7%5.01%	70.1%0.23%	60.4%0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	51.6%0.83%	58.2%0.75%	53.9%1.56%	26.1%11.70%	48.6%1.59%	40.6%2.83%	63.1%0.53%	40.7%3.43%	50.6%0.76%	46.4%1.35%		23.5%7.36%	60.6%0.41%	61.1%0.45%
San Francisco 49ers	77.1%3.45%	80.3%3.08%	76.7%6.99%	53.0%14.63%	72.4%6.49%	67.0%11.87%	84.6%1.87%	68.6%13.08%	77.0%2.91%	74.3%5.01%	76.5%7.36%		83.8%1.98%	84.4%1.78%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38.9%0.16%	44.1%0.18%	41.0%0.17%	18.4%1.60%	37.9%0.14%	27.7%0.33%	54.3%0.12%	30.2%0.44%	46.8%0.19%	29.9%0.23%	39.4%0.41%	16.2%1.98%		56.7%0.07%
Washington Redskins	32.1%0.13%	47.9%0.14%	40.7%0.29%	19.3%2.32%	27.6%0.31%	28.1%0.63%	56.0%0.08%	30.1%0.71%	40.4%0.14%	39.6%0.22%	38.9%0.45%	15.6%1.78%	43.3%0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		71.3%0.09%	38.8%3.03%	53.5%0.70%	66.0%0.45%	62.3%0.23%	44.0%2.02%	50.8%1.02%	42.4%1.61%	45.1%0.39%	60.2%0.37%	36.1%2.98%	39.6%3.51%	59.4%0.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	28.7%0.09%		22.1%0.07%	31.6%0.04%	40.0%0.01%	60.0%0.01%	29.4%0.10%	26.2%0.04%	24.1%0.11%	25.0%0.02%	46.2%0.03%	20.3%0.07%	26.0%0.13%	42.3%0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	61.2%3.03%	77.9%0.07%		63.0%1.31%	71.1%0.52%	63.4%0.69%	54.7%3.61%	61.0%1.89%	52.3%4.85%	57.8%1.15%	70.3%1.19%	48.8%3.36%	49.8%6.06%	71.3%1.01%
Denver Broncos	46.5%0.70%	68.4%0.04%	37.0%1.31%		61.0%0.23%	56.7%0.18%	42.7%0.51%	50.4%0.26%	38.6%1.24%	44.7%0.29%	54.0%0.31%	31.5%1.41%	36.5%0.83%	62.8%0.16%
Houston Oilers	34.0%0.45%	60.0%0.01%	28.9%0.52%	39.0%0.23%		39.8%0.11%	30.6%0.60%	38.9%0.28%	31.4%0.84%	33.3%0.19%	49.7%0.19%	25.6%0.51%	27.9%1.05%	49.2%0.18%
Indianapolis Colts	37.7%0.23%	40.0%0.01%	36.6%0.69%	43.3%0.18%	60.2%0.11%		38.0%0.51%	44.2%0.29%	33.9%0.38%	31.1%0.07%	51.5%0.07%	32.6%0.70%	32.4%0.80%	53.0%0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	56.0%2.02%	70.6%0.10%	45.3%3.61%	57.3%0.51%	69.4%0.60%	62.0%0.51%		57.7%0.72%	48.4%3.42%	53.7%0.86%	66.4%0.84%	42.2%3.82%	45.5%2.26%	60.5%0.41%
Los Angeles Raiders	49.2%1.02%	73.8%0.04%	39.0%1.89%	49.6%0.26%	61.1%0.28%	55.8%0.29%	42.3%0.72%		45.2%1.58%	52.3%0.38%	59.8%0.44%	36.8%1.85%	39.5%1.17%	63.2%0.20%
Miami Dolphins	57.6%1.61%	75.9%0.11%	47.7%4.85%	61.4%1.24%	68.6%0.84%	66.1%0.38%	51.6%3.42%	54.8%1.58%		57.3%0.65%	65.6%0.65%	44.5%4.83%	46.4%5.59%	67.2%1.07%
New England Patriots	54.9%0.39%	75.0%0.02%	42.2%1.15%	55.3%0.29%	66.7%0.19%	68.9%0.07%	46.3%0.86%	47.7%0.38%	42.7%0.65%		55.5%0.15%	37.3%1.17%	43.8%1.30%	64.1%0.26%
New York Jets	39.8%0.37%	53.8%0.03%	29.7%1.19%	46.0%0.31%	50.3%0.19%	48.5%0.07%	33.6%0.84%	40.2%0.44%	34.4%0.65%	44.5%0.15%		27.9%1.28%	28.7%1.31%	46.2%0.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.9%2.98%	79.7%0.07%	51.2%3.36%	68.5%1.41%	74.4%0.51%	67.4%0.70%	57.8%3.82%	63.2%1.85%	55.5%4.83%	62.7%1.17%	72.1%1.28%		53.4%6.03%	72.4%1.12%
San Diego Chargers	60.4%3.51%	74.0%0.13%	50.2%6.06%	63.5%0.83%	72.1%1.05%	67.6%0.80%	54.5%2.26%	60.5%1.17%	53.6%5.59%	56.2%1.30%	71.3%1.31%	46.6%6.03%		69.6%0.72%
Seattle Seahawks	40.6%0.65%	57.7%0.03%	28.7%1.01%	37.2%0.16%	50.8%0.18%	47.0%0.11%	39.5%0.41%	36.8%0.20%	32.8%1.07%	35.9%0.26%	53.8%0.26%	27.6%1.12%	30.4%0.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		60.6%0.07%	48.0%0.18%	26.8%1.07%	45.3%0.20%	32.2%0.48%	71.0%0.03%	42.1%0.45%	51.4%0.11%	38.5%0.10%	46.2%0.19%	25.3%1.92%	46.3%0.04%	58.3%0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	39.4%0.07%		43.4%0.13%	22.5%1.43%	41.5%0.13%	32.7%0.29%	58.8%0.02%	32.4%0.32%	57.5%0.04%	39.3%0.14%	40.2%0.23%	21.1%0.86%	63.0%0.03%	63.6%0.02%
Chicago Bears	52.0%0.18%	56.6%0.13%		24.9%2.65%	43.3%0.18%	41.5%0.43%	64.4%0.06%	42.6%0.44%	46.2%0.12%	46.8%0.28%	46.7%0.43%	22.5%2.40%	61.3%0.03%	56.9%0.07%
Dallas Cowboys	73.2%1.07%	77.5%1.43%	75.1%2.65%		69.6%2.86%	65.2%6.18%	85.0%0.78%	66.6%6.92%	75.0%1.46%	69.3%1.71%	71.9%2.62%	48.8%26.53%	82.6%0.52%	83.0%0.39%
Detroit Lions	54.7%0.20%	58.5%0.13%	56.7%0.18%	30.4%2.86%		45.8%0.48%	77.6%0.08%	45.7%0.48%	56.3%0.17%	48.7%0.32%	55.1%0.51%	28.6%2.52%	71.8%0.04%	54.7%0.07%
Green Bay Packers	67.8%0.48%	67.3%0.29%	58.5%0.43%	34.8%6.18%	54.2%0.48%		72.4%0.14%	52.9%1.14%	64.1%0.32%	56.5%0.73%	61.6%1.08%	34.5%5.81%	71.9%0.09%	66.1%0.19%
Los Angeles Rams	29.0%0.03%	41.2%0.02%	35.6%0.06%	15.0%0.78%	22.4%0.08%	27.6%0.14%		30.3%0.17%	33.3%0.02%	35.3%0.07%	31.5%0.12%	17.8%0.43%	57.1%0.01%	58.3%0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	57.9%0.45%	67.6%0.32%	57.4%0.44%	33.4%6.92%	54.3%0.48%	47.1%1.14%	69.7%0.17%		56.7%0.34%	53.9%0.75%	57.2%1.19%	31.5%6.05%	61.4%0.09%	66.3%0.21%
New Orleans Saints	48.6%0.11%	42.5%0.04%	53.8%0.12%	25.0%1.46%	43.7%0.17%	35.9%0.32%	66.7%0.02%	43.3%0.34%		49.4%0.17%	47.8%0.29%	21.9%0.93%	41.9%0.03%	55.6%0.04%
New York Giants	61.5%0.10%	60.7%0.14%	53.2%0.28%	30.7%1.71%	51.3%0.32%	43.5%0.73%	64.7%0.07%	46.1%0.75%	50.6%0.17%		54.4%0.26%	27.4%3.05%	67.1%0.07%	65.0%0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	53.8%0.19%	59.8%0.23%	53.3%0.43%	28.1%2.62%	44.9%0.51%	38.4%1.08%	68.5%0.12%	42.8%1.19%	52.2%0.29%	45.6%0.26%		25.1%4.58%	56.8%0.10%	67.6%0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	74.7%1.92%	78.9%0.86%	77.5%2.40%	51.2%26.53%	71.4%2.52%	65.5%5.81%	82.2%0.43%	68.5%6.05%	78.1%0.93%	72.6%3.05%	74.9%4.58%		84.1%0.46%	79.5%0.68%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	53.7%0.04%	37.0%0.03%	38.7%0.03%	17.4%0.52%	28.2%0.04%	28.1%0.09%	42.9%0.01%	38.6%0.09%	58.1%0.03%	32.9%0.07%	43.2%0.10%	15.9%0.46%		57.1%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	41.7%0.02%	36.4%0.02%	43.1%0.07%	17.0%0.39%	45.3%0.07%	33.9%0.19%	41.7%0.01%	33.7%0.21%	44.4%0.04%	35.0%0.04%	32.4%0.07%	20.5%0.68%	42.9%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	43.0%0.11%	58.5%0.08%	51.3%0.16%	29.5%2.49%	43.2%0.21%	40.8%0.55%	56.5%0.02%	42.6%0.50%	46.6%0.10%	46.4%0.21%	50.5%0.31%	27.2%2.58%	64.0%0.03%	61.5%0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	14.1%0.07%	12.5%<0.01%	11.8%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	21.1%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	22.2%<0.01%	15.5%0.07%		33.3%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.5%0.24%	67.7%0.17%	58.2%0.37%	38.7%5.29%	57.7%0.49%	52.0%1.17%	62.1%0.06%	54.0%1.23%	62.3%0.21%	57.8%0.43%	59.4%0.64%	36.3%5.65%	65.0%0.06%	66.2%0.08%
Denver Broncos	51.2%0.04%	38.7%0.03%	65.6%0.06%	27.9%1.06%	36.0%0.09%	37.4%0.21%	38.9%0.02%	39.1%0.21%	52.6%0.04%	47.1%0.09%	47.7%0.11%	27.6%1.07%	54.5%0.01%	66.7%0.01%
Houston Oilers	32.0%0.03%	52.6%0.02%	40.4%0.06%	21.8%0.53%	25.0%0.05%	30.2%0.12%	42.9%<0.01%	37.3%0.13%	32.1%0.03%	23.9%0.05%	31.5%0.05%	19.7%0.60%	33.3%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	46.7%0.03%	63.2%0.02%	38.9%0.04%	25.5%0.50%	31.7%0.04%	40.2%0.11%	30.0%0.01%	33.7%0.10%	54.2%0.02%	43.1%0.05%	50.8%0.06%	24.1%0.54%	40.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	49.7%0.14%	73.1%0.09%	54.7%0.22%	34.1%3.25%	49.5%0.30%	46.9%0.74%	70.2%0.05%	45.8%0.73%	59.2%0.13%	48.0%0.28%	56.7%0.41%	33.8%3.40%	59.0%0.04%	71.4%0.06%
Los Angeles Raiders	52.3%0.09%	60.4%0.05%	50.0%0.10%	32.7%1.45%	44.2%0.14%	46.0%0.35%	72.2%0.02%	43.6%0.34%	61.1%0.05%	49.6%0.13%	54.7%0.16%	29.9%1.58%	58.8%0.02%	61.5%0.01%
Miami Dolphins	54.1%0.21%	57.3%0.13%	55.6%0.31%	37.9%4.63%	49.0%0.41%	45.9%0.97%	71.0%0.06%	51.8%1.00%	56.7%0.18%	54.6%0.42%	59.9%0.59%	33.6%4.78%	69.4%0.06%	69.8%0.05%
New England Patriots	49.2%0.06%	48.4%0.03%	55.3%0.08%	34.1%1.06%	48.9%0.09%	44.7%0.24%	75.0%<0.01%	49.1%0.22%	57.5%0.04%	52.9%0.09%	63.6%0.11%	33.4%1.10%	66.7%0.01%	57.1%0.02%
New York Jets	31.7%0.04%	55.0%0.02%	55.0%0.06%	23.6%0.78%	45.7%0.07%	33.1%0.16%	44.4%<0.01%	26.3%0.16%	42.1%0.04%	30.5%0.06%	36.6%0.10%	20.5%0.88%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.4%0.26%	70.7%0.19%	63.0%0.42%	41.2%5.59%	57.8%0.49%	51.3%1.31%	74.4%0.08%	55.7%1.27%	60.3%0.21%	58.9%0.48%	61.5%0.69%	38.4%6.10%	78.9%0.06%	68.4%0.10%
San Diego Chargers	62.5%0.28%	61.0%0.19%	62.0%0.37%	37.9%5.62%	57.7%0.52%	48.7%1.28%	79.7%0.07%	54.1%1.27%	58.6%0.23%	56.7%0.51%	60.5%0.64%	36.0%5.86%	64.4%0.06%	72.8%0.08%
Seattle Seahawks	34.5%0.03%	54.5%0.02%	44.7%0.05%	24.4%0.74%	48.3%0.06%	30.7%0.15%	42.9%<0.01%	33.8%0.15%	22.7%0.02%	38.2%0.06%	32.5%0.08%	25.2%0.73%	37.5%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals															57.0%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	46.5%0.24%	48.8%0.04%	68.0%0.03%	53.3%0.03%	50.3%0.14%	47.7%0.09%	45.9%0.21%	50.8%0.06%	68.3%0.04%	40.6%0.26%	37.5%0.28%	65.5%0.03%
Atlanta Falcons															41.5%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%	32.3%0.17%	61.3%0.03%	47.4%0.02%	36.8%0.02%	26.9%0.09%	39.6%0.05%	42.7%0.13%	51.6%0.03%	45.0%0.02%	29.3%0.19%	39.0%0.19%	45.5%0.02%
Chicago Bears															48.7%0.16%	75.0%<0.01%	41.8%0.37%	34.4%0.06%	59.6%0.06%	61.1%0.04%	45.3%0.22%	50.0%0.10%	44.4%0.31%	44.7%0.08%	45.0%0.06%	37.0%0.42%	38.0%0.37%	55.3%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys															70.5%2.49%	85.9%0.07%	61.3%5.29%	72.1%1.06%	78.2%0.53%	74.5%0.50%	65.9%3.25%	67.3%1.45%	62.1%4.63%	65.9%1.06%	76.4%0.78%	58.8%5.59%	62.1%5.62%	75.6%0.74%
Detroit Lions															56.8%0.21%	87.5%<0.01%	42.3%0.49%	64.0%0.09%	75.0%0.05%	68.3%0.04%	50.5%0.30%	55.8%0.14%	51.0%0.41%	51.1%0.09%	54.3%0.07%	42.2%0.49%	42.3%0.52%	51.7%0.06%
Green Bay Packers															59.2%0.55%	88.2%0.02%	48.0%1.17%	62.6%0.21%	69.8%0.12%	59.8%0.11%	53.1%0.74%	54.0%0.35%	54.1%0.97%	55.3%0.24%	66.9%0.16%	48.7%1.31%	51.3%1.28%	69.3%0.15%
Los Angeles Rams															43.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	37.9%0.06%	61.1%0.02%	57.1%<0.01%	70.0%0.01%	29.8%0.05%	27.8%0.02%	29.0%0.06%	25.0%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	25.6%0.08%	20.3%0.07%	57.1%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings															57.4%0.50%	78.9%0.02%	46.0%1.23%	60.9%0.21%	62.7%0.13%	66.3%0.10%	54.2%0.73%	56.4%0.34%	48.2%1.00%	50.9%0.22%	73.7%0.16%	44.3%1.27%	45.9%1.27%	66.2%0.15%
New Orleans Saints															53.4%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	37.7%0.21%	47.4%0.04%	67.9%0.03%	45.8%0.02%	40.8%0.13%	38.9%0.05%	43.3%0.18%	42.5%0.04%	57.9%0.04%	39.7%0.21%	41.4%0.23%	77.3%0.02%
New York Giants															53.6%0.21%	100.0%<0.01%	42.2%0.43%	52.9%0.09%	76.1%0.05%	56.9%0.05%	52.0%0.28%	50.4%0.13%	45.4%0.42%	47.1%0.09%	69.5%0.06%	41.1%0.48%	43.3%0.51%	61.8%0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles															49.5%0.31%	77.8%<0.01%	40.6%0.64%	52.3%0.11%	68.5%0.05%	49.2%0.06%	43.3%0.41%	45.3%0.16%	40.1%0.59%	36.4%0.11%	63.4%0.10%	38.5%0.69%	39.5%0.64%	67.5%0.08%
San Francisco 49ers															72.8%2.58%	84.5%0.07%	63.7%5.65%	72.4%1.07%	80.3%0.60%	75.9%0.54%	66.2%3.40%	70.1%1.58%	66.4%4.78%	66.6%1.10%	79.5%0.88%	61.6%6.10%	64.0%5.86%	74.8%0.73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															36.0%0.03%		35.0%0.06%	45.5%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	41.0%0.04%	41.2%0.02%	30.6%0.06%	33.3%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	21.1%0.06%	35.6%0.06%	62.5%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															38.5%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	33.8%0.08%	33.3%0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	28.6%0.06%	38.5%0.01%	30.2%0.05%	42.9%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	31.6%0.10%	27.2%0.08%	55.6%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	74.22%	46.54%	29.09%	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	70.59%	34.16%	20.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	61.52%	37.18%	15.87%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	57.38%	26.48%	10.43%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.72%	26.84%	12.54%	5.35%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	58.56%	24.63%	11.40%	4.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	63.41%	19.33%	7.17%	3.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	66.31%	19.29%	7.04%	3.33%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs	41.44%	15.43%	6.41%	2.54%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New England Patriots	37.28%	14.20%	5.99%	2.31%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Detroit Lions	36.59%	9.54%	3.24%	1.51%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Chicago Bears	33.69%	7.03%	1.84%	0.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots
Cleveland Browns (1st)				62.7%100.00%
Kansas City Chiefs			41.4%100.00%
Miami Dolphins		58.6%100.00%
New England Patriots	37.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears				33.7%100.00%
Detroit Lions			36.6%100.00%
Green Bay Packers		63.4%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	66.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns (1st)					41.2%36.62%	45.0%26.10%
Kansas City Chiefs					37.2%41.44%
Miami Dolphins						42.1%58.56%
New England Patriots					36.3%21.94%	40.6%15.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers	58.8%36.62%	62.8%41.44%		63.7%21.94%
San Diego Chargers	55.0%26.10%		57.9%58.56%	59.4%15.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears						20.9%33.69%
Dallas Cowboys			72.8%12.35%	68.3%21.33%	70.9%66.31%
Detroit Lions		27.2%12.35%				25.5%24.23%
Green Bay Packers		31.7%21.33%				29.9%42.08%
Minnesota Vikings		29.1%66.31%
San Francisco 49ers	79.1%33.69%		74.5%24.23%	70.1%42.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns (1st)		60.6%4.38%	45.5%6.33%		41.1%7.38%	45.4%8.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	39.4%4.38%			43.3%2.27%		42.1%8.78%
Miami Dolphins	54.5%6.33%			58.9%3.37%	39.9%14.93%
New England Patriots		56.7%2.27%	41.1%3.37%		37.3%3.97%	40.1%4.60%
Pittsburgh Steelers	58.9%7.38%		60.1%14.93%	62.7%3.97%		60.6%35.24%
San Diego Chargers	54.6%8.76%	57.9%8.78%		59.9%4.60%	39.4%35.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		23.6%4.90%	33.8%0.70%	31.5%1.43%
Dallas Cowboys	76.4%4.90%		70.1%4.39%	67.8%8.97%		40.6%52.33%
Detroit Lions	66.2%0.70%	29.9%4.39%			42.2%1.80%	26.5%2.66%
Green Bay Packers	68.5%1.43%	32.2%8.97%			43.7%3.60%	32.4%5.33%
Minnesota Vikings			57.8%1.80%	56.3%3.60%		28.6%13.89%
San Francisco 49ers		59.4%52.33%	73.5%2.66%	67.6%5.33%	71.4%13.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	65.5%0.24%	41.5%4.26%	57.1%0.42%	50.5%0.92%	54.7%0.86%	38.6%5.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.5%0.11%	37.4%2.27%	50.0%0.20%	49.0%0.49%	50.5%0.43%	36.8%2.91%
Miami Dolphins	53.5%0.19%	37.5%3.90%	50.0%0.38%	44.9%0.84%	51.2%0.82%	36.5%5.27%
New England Patriots	54.9%0.11%	37.6%2.06%	47.4%0.19%	45.0%0.44%	51.4%0.43%	34.8%2.76%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.1%0.71%	40.8%12.62%	55.1%1.23%	50.1%2.62%	55.1%2.63%	39.5%17.37%
San Diego Chargers	57.5%0.49%	38.9%9.05%	52.4%0.83%	46.9%1.85%	50.1%1.88%	35.4%12.38%
Chicago Bears							34.5%0.24%	44.5%0.11%	46.5%0.19%	45.1%0.11%	39.9%0.71%	42.5%0.49%
Dallas Cowboys							58.5%4.26%	62.6%2.27%	62.5%3.90%	62.4%2.06%	59.2%12.62%	61.1%9.05%
Detroit Lions							42.9%0.42%	50.0%0.20%	50.0%0.38%	52.6%0.19%	44.9%1.23%	47.6%0.83%
Green Bay Packers							49.5%0.92%	51.0%0.49%	55.1%0.84%	55.0%0.44%	49.9%2.62%	53.1%1.85%
Minnesota Vikings							45.3%0.86%	49.5%0.43%	48.8%0.82%	48.6%0.43%	44.9%2.63%	49.9%1.88%
San Francisco 49ers							61.4%5.84%	63.2%2.91%	63.5%5.27%	65.2%2.76%	60.5%17.37%	64.6%12.38%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 29.09% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

39.77%

Win Prob

70.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

66.75%

Win Prob

59.37%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

36.14%

Win Prob

60.52%

Dallas Cowboys 20.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

66.61%

Win Prob

70.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.25%

Win Prob

40.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

36.22%

Win Prob

59.22%

Pittsburgh Steelers 15.87% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

42.28%

Win Prob

62.77%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

57.49%

Win Prob

60.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.23%

Win Prob

39.48%

San Diego Chargers 10.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

59.13%

Win Prob

57.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.37%

Win Prob

39.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.00%

Win Prob

35.38%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 5.35% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.72%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

56.21%

Win Prob

41.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

31.71%

Win Prob

45.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.10%

Win Prob

38.55%

Miami Dolphins 4.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.30%

Win Prob

39.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.06%

Win Prob

36.53%

Green Bay Packers 3.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

65.02%

Win Prob

29.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.32%

Win Prob

32.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

35.29%

Win Prob

49.90%

Minnesota Vikings 3.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.09%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.45%

Win Prob

28.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

35.43%

Win Prob

44.90%

Kansas City Chiefs 2.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

57.76%

Win Prob

42.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.28%

Win Prob

36.82%

New England Patriots 2.31% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.28%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

56.09%

Win Prob

36.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

30.79%

Win Prob

40.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.72%

Win Prob

34.84%

Detroit Lions 1.51% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

64.82%

Win Prob

25.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.51%

Win Prob

29.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

36.38%

Win Prob

44.86%

Chicago Bears 0.76% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.69%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

62.80%

Win Prob

23.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

37.15%

Win Prob

39.89%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1994-09-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-14	1491.05	1454.05	48.00%	51.74%	-6.50	0-1
1994-09-11	New York Giants	L 17-20	1484.55	1524.89	51.25%	48.48%	-8.50	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-32	1476.05	1484.17	41.59%	58.15%	-22.54	0-3
1994-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-7	1453.51	1548.15	43.48%	56.26%	+17.03	1-3
1994-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-38	1470.54	1620.37	23.97%	75.83%	-13.58	1-4
1994-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-16	1456.96	1443.17	44.68%	55.06%	+9.13	2-4
1994-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1466.09	1645.08	32.14%	67.63%	-8.15	2-5
1994-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1457.94	1527.27	47.09%	52.65%	+8.73	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-17	1466.67	1583.01	27.65%	72.13%	-8.38	3-6
1994-11-13	@ New York Giants	W 10-9	1458.29	1465.58	41.71%	58.04%	+5.56	4-6
1994-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 12-6	1463.85	1564.84	42.58%	57.16%	+13.40	5-6
1994-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1477.25	1507.02	52.77%	46.96%	-8.75	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-12	1468.50	1420.97	49.52%	50.22%	+20.40	6-7
1994-12-11	Washington Redskins	W 17-15	1488.90	1411.34	67.44%	32.32%	+4.38	7-7
1994-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-7	1493.28	1354.98	74.59%	25.20%	+11.06	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-10	1504.34	1438.91	52.09%	47.65%	-9.97	8-8
1994-09-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1477.50	1496.68	40.05%	59.69%	-6.65	0-1
1994-09-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-13	1470.85	1460.55	58.46%	41.29%	+16.78	1-1
1994-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-30	1487.63	1554.68	47.41%	52.32%	-20.31	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1467.32	1482.18	40.65%	59.09%	+14.97	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 8-5	1482.29	1458.48	46.11%	53.63%	+8.89	3-2
1994-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-13	1491.18	1439.21	64.13%	35.62%	+15.64	4-2
1994-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-42	1506.82	1575.39	47.20%	52.54%	-28.23	4-3
1994-10-23	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-30	1478.59	1485.91	41.70%	58.04%	-14.40	4-4
1994-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 10-9	1464.19	1591.05	38.99%	60.76%	+5.81	5-4
1994-11-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 32-33	1470.00	1461.26	43.97%	55.77%	-4.21	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-32	1465.79	1491.76	39.12%	60.63%	-7.49	5-6
1994-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1458.30	1551.44	43.69%	56.05%	+14.19	6-6
1994-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-50	1472.49	1656.22	20.60%	79.22%	-11.84	6-7
1994-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 20-29	1460.65	1465.11	56.38%	43.36%	-16.19	6-8
1994-12-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1444.46	1549.55	28.96%	70.81%	-5.55	6-9
1994-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 10-6	1438.91	1504.34	47.65%	52.09%	+9.98	7-9
1994-09-04	New York Jets	L 3-23	1541.87	1484.39	64.86%	34.90%	-27.75	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New England Patriots	W 38-35	1514.12	1446.74	52.37%	47.37%	+7.85	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 15-7	1521.97	1509.15	44.54%	55.20%	+14.95	2-1
1994-09-26	Denver Broncos	W 27-20	1536.92	1459.59	67.41%	32.35%	+8.20	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-20	1545.12	1478.13	52.31%	47.42%	-13.25	3-2
1994-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 21-11	1531.87	1554.48	53.80%	45.94%	+13.91	4-2
1994-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1545.78	1418.92	73.33%	26.46%	-22.18	4-3
1994-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-10	1523.60	1553.05	52.82%	46.92%	+26.20	5-3
1994-11-06	@ New York Jets	L 17-22	1549.80	1479.85	52.74%	47.00%	-11.29	5-4
1994-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1538.51	1526.59	44.41%	55.32%	-15.34	5-5
1994-11-20	Green Bay Packers	W 29-20	1523.17	1556.80	52.22%	47.52%	+13.65	6-5
1994-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-35	1536.82	1468.01	52.58%	47.16%	-18.83	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 42-31	1517.99	1558.27	37.18%	62.57%	+19.86	7-6
1994-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1537.85	1540.13	56.69%	43.05%	-10.86	7-7
1994-12-18	New England Patriots	L 17-41	1526.99	1488.94	62.27%	37.48%	-29.19	7-8
1994-12-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 9-10	1497.80	1445.92	50.14%	49.60%	-4.80	7-9
1994-09-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-9	1482.08	1443.69	62.32%	37.43%	+12.42	1-0
1994-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-30	1494.50	1516.55	39.66%	60.09%	-10.74	1-1
1994-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-42	1483.76	1514.22	52.67%	47.06%	-26.69	1-2
1994-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 19-7	1457.07	1504.33	36.25%	63.51%	+21.06	2-2
1994-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 20-13	1478.13	1545.12	47.42%	52.31%	+13.25	3-2
1994-10-09	New Orleans Saints	W 17-7	1491.38	1484.51	57.98%	41.77%	+12.65	4-2
1994-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-21	1504.03	1463.27	48.54%	51.20%	-10.40	4-3
1994-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 6-33	1493.63	1511.28	54.51%	45.23%	-27.11	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-6	1466.52	1396.83	52.70%	47.04%	+16.85	5-4
1994-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1483.37	1567.33	31.53%	68.24%	+11.31	6-4
1994-11-20	Detroit Lions	W 20-10	1494.68	1480.35	59.02%	40.72%	+12.34	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 19-16	1507.02	1477.25	46.96%	52.77%	+8.75	8-4
1994-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-33	1515.77	1530.59	40.66%	59.09%	-9.54	8-5
1994-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-40	1506.23	1526.29	39.93%	59.81%	-23.27	8-6
1994-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-13	1482.96	1401.46	67.94%	31.83%	+11.41	9-6
1994-12-24	New England Patriots	L 3-13	1494.37	1518.14	53.63%	46.10%	-16.23	9-7
1994-09-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-28	1445.39	1485.12	51.34%	48.39%	-13.90	0-1
1994-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-27	1431.49	1527.64	30.03%	69.74%	-11.86	0-2
1994-09-18	New England Patriots	L 28-31	1419.63	1438.88	54.28%	45.46%	-9.00	0-3
1994-09-25	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-20	1410.63	1494.20	31.57%	68.20%	-8.01	0-4
1994-10-02	Miami Dolphins	L 7-23	1402.62	1540.09	37.55%	62.20%	-14.39	0-5
1994-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-14	1388.23	1511.78	26.83%	72.95%	-5.14	0-6
1994-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-37	1383.09	1543.04	22.93%	76.88%	-10.76	0-7
1994-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-23	1372.33	1653.22	20.87%	78.95%	-3.46	0-8
1994-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1368.87	1464.12	30.14%	69.63%	+11.54	1-8
1994-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 34-31	1380.41	1451.35	46.86%	52.88%	+8.77	2-8
1994-11-20	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-17	1389.18	1426.60	51.68%	48.06%	-9.89	2-9
1994-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-15	1379.29	1499.25	27.24%	72.55%	-3.69	2-10
1994-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-38	1375.60	1570.30	30.20%	69.57%	-13.88	2-11
1994-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1361.72	1487.52	26.58%	73.21%	-6.74	2-12
1994-12-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-28	1354.98	1493.28	25.20%	74.59%	-11.06	2-13
1994-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-30	1343.92	1503.75	34.59%	65.17%	+10.80	3-13
1994-09-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-20	1485.12	1445.39	48.39%	51.34%	+13.90	1-0
1994-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1499.02	1487.38	58.64%	41.10%	-14.85	1-1
1994-09-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 32-0	1484.17	1476.05	58.15%	41.59%	+22.54	2-1
1994-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-14	1506.71	1434.61	53.05%	46.69%	+11.83	3-1
1994-10-02	New York Jets	W 27-7	1518.54	1483.28	61.89%	37.86%	+16.22	4-1
1994-10-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 11-8	1534.76	1485.45	49.77%	49.96%	+8.28	5-1
1994-10-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-13	1543.04	1383.09	76.88%	22.93%	+10.76	6-1
1994-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-26	1553.80	1475.66	53.91%	45.83%	-17.88	6-2
1994-11-06	New England Patriots	W 13-6	1535.92	1428.87	71.05%	28.73%	+7.29	7-2
1994-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1543.21	1591.39	36.12%	63.63%	+26.54	8-2
1994-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1569.75	1534.11	47.81%	51.93%	-12.11	8-3
1994-11-27	Houston Oilers	W 34-10	1557.64	1433.54	73.02%	26.77%	+12.56	9-3
1994-12-04	New York Giants	L 13-16	1570.20	1476.00	69.50%	30.27%	-11.52	9-4
1994-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-14	1558.68	1684.45	26.58%	73.21%	+15.66	10-4
1994-12-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1574.34	1595.18	39.83%	59.92%	-12.06	10-5
1994-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-9	1562.28	1434.30	73.45%	26.33%	+12.86	11-5
1994-09-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-9	1590.81	1505.05	55.00%	44.74%	+17.67	1-0
1994-09-11	Houston Oilers	W 20-17	1608.48	1514.17	69.52%	30.26%	+5.02	2-0
1994-09-19	Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1613.50	1492.50	72.67%	27.12%	-12.04	2-1
1994-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-7	1601.46	1467.21	61.76%	37.99%	+18.91	3-1
1994-10-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-3	1620.37	1470.54	75.83%	23.97%	+13.58	4-1
1994-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-13	1633.95	1577.31	64.75%	35.01%	+11.13	5-1
1994-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 28-21	1645.08	1466.09	67.63%	32.14%	+8.14	6-1
1994-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1653.22	1372.33	78.95%	20.87%	+3.47	7-1
1994-11-07	New York Giants	W 38-10	1656.69	1476.17	78.91%	20.91%	+10.59	8-1
1994-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1667.28	1626.27	48.58%	51.16%	-12.30	8-2
1994-11-20	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1654.98	1436.83	82.28%	17.56%	+8.23	9-2
1994-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 42-31	1663.21	1543.15	72.56%	27.23%	+8.65	10-2
1994-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-19	1671.86	1537.25	61.81%	37.94%	+12.59	11-2
1994-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-19	1684.45	1558.68	73.21%	26.58%	-15.66	11-3
1994-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-16	1668.79	1481.30	68.69%	31.08%	+8.42	12-3
1994-12-24	@ New York Giants	L 10-15	1677.21	1504.16	66.88%	32.89%	-14.30	12-4
1994-09-04	San Diego Chargers	L 34-37	1509.46	1518.40	55.75%	43.99%	-9.24	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 22-25	1500.22	1512.15	41.06%	58.68%	-6.81	0-2
1994-09-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-48	1493.41	1453.86	62.47%	37.28%	-33.82	0-3
1994-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1459.59	1536.92	32.35%	67.41%	-8.20	0-4
1994-10-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-9	1451.39	1506.37	35.23%	64.53%	+16.33	1-4
1994-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-31	1467.72	1531.78	47.84%	51.89%	-7.93	1-5
1994-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-15	1459.79	1594.34	25.61%	74.18%	+15.87	2-5
1994-10-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-14	1475.66	1553.80	45.83%	53.91%	+17.88	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1493.54	1447.09	49.36%	50.38%	-11.58	3-6
1994-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-10	1481.96	1452.58	61.09%	38.65%	+9.80	4-6
1994-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 32-28	1491.76	1465.79	60.63%	39.12%	+7.49	5-6
1994-11-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 15-13	1499.25	1379.29	72.55%	27.24%	+3.69	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1502.94	1540.76	37.51%	62.24%	+10.32	7-6
1994-12-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-23	1513.26	1507.81	43.50%	56.24%	-13.18	7-7
1994-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-42	1500.08	1687.61	20.25%	79.57%	-9.30	7-8
1994-12-24	New Orleans Saints	L 28-30	1490.78	1472.88	59.52%	40.23%	-8.05	7-9
1994-09-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1496.68	1477.50	59.69%	40.05%	+6.65	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1503.33	1503.40	42.72%	57.02%	-10.83	1-1
1994-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1492.50	1613.50	27.12%	72.67%	+12.04	2-1
1994-09-25	New England Patriots	L 17-23	1504.54	1447.88	64.75%	35.01%	-15.17	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-24	1489.37	1423.42	52.17%	47.57%	-15.80	2-3
1994-10-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-27	1473.57	1565.09	43.92%	55.82%	-10.30	2-4
1994-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1463.27	1504.03	51.20%	48.54%	+10.39	3-4
1994-10-30	@ New York Giants	W 28-25	1473.66	1485.91	41.02%	58.73%	+9.74	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 30-38	1483.40	1538.39	35.23%	64.53%	-9.55	4-5
1994-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1473.85	1379.98	69.46%	30.31%	+6.50	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1480.35	1494.68	40.72%	59.02%	-12.34	5-6
1994-11-24	Buffalo Bills	W 35-21	1468.01	1536.82	47.16%	52.58%	+18.83	6-6
1994-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1486.84	1534.50	50.20%	49.53%	+8.22	7-6
1994-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 18-7	1495.06	1478.07	45.14%	54.60%	+17.34	8-6
1994-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-19	1512.40	1550.98	51.51%	48.23%	+21.66	9-6
1994-12-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-27	1534.06	1543.39	41.42%	58.32%	-10.50	9-7
1994-09-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1512.85	1513.44	56.93%	42.81%	+10.04	1-0
1994-09-11	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1522.89	1515.12	58.10%	41.64%	-17.59	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-13	1505.30	1527.30	39.67%	60.08%	-9.30	1-2
1994-09-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-3	1496.00	1440.95	64.54%	35.22%	+17.53	2-2
1994-10-02	@ New England Patriots	L 16-17	1513.53	1463.06	49.94%	49.80%	-4.78	2-3
1994-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1508.75	1449.59	65.08%	34.68%	+8.79	3-3
1994-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-13	1517.54	1553.67	37.74%	62.01%	-6.26	3-4
1994-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-6	1511.28	1493.63	45.23%	54.51%	+27.11	4-4
1994-11-06	Detroit Lions	W 38-30	1538.39	1483.40	64.53%	35.23%	+9.54	5-4
1994-11-13	New York Jets	W 17-10	1547.93	1491.14	64.77%	34.99%	+8.87	6-4
1994-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-29	1556.80	1523.17	47.52%	52.22%	-13.65	6-5
1994-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-42	1543.15	1663.21	27.23%	72.56%	-8.65	6-6
1994-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 31-34	1534.50	1486.84	49.53%	50.20%	-8.21	6-7
1994-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 40-3	1526.29	1506.23	59.81%	39.93%	+23.26	7-7
1994-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1549.55	1444.46	70.81%	28.96%	+5.55	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-19	1555.10	1416.89	62.30%	37.45%	+13.90	9-7
1994-09-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-45	1541.33	1434.92	57.92%	41.83%	-27.16	0-1
1994-09-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1514.17	1608.48	30.26%	69.52%	-5.02	0-2
1994-09-18	Buffalo Bills	L 7-15	1509.15	1521.97	55.20%	44.54%	-14.95	0-3
1994-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1494.20	1410.63	68.20%	31.57%	+8.01	1-3
1994-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1502.21	1495.02	43.75%	56.00%	-16.76	1-4
1994-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 8-11	1485.45	1534.76	49.96%	49.77%	-8.29	1-5
1994-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-21	1477.16	1566.19	30.90%	68.87%	-11.46	1-6
1994-10-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-17	1465.70	1500.31	37.94%	61.81%	-6.30	1-7
1994-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-12	1459.40	1518.54	48.55%	51.19%	-8.05	1-8
1994-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1451.35	1380.41	52.88%	46.86%	-8.77	1-9
1994-11-21	New York Giants	L 10-13	1442.58	1460.02	54.54%	45.20%	-9.04	1-10
1994-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-34	1433.54	1557.64	26.77%	73.02%	-12.57	1-11
1994-12-04	Arizona Cardinals	L 12-30	1420.97	1468.50	50.22%	49.52%	-20.40	1-12
1994-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-16	1400.57	1431.51	52.61%	47.13%	-7.12	1-13
1994-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-31	1393.45	1514.01	27.17%	72.62%	-12.21	1-14
1994-12-24	New York Jets	W 24-10	1381.24	1444.18	48.00%	51.73%	+18.53	2-14
1994-09-04	Houston Oilers	W 45-21	1434.92	1541.33	41.83%	57.92%	+27.16	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-24	1462.08	1431.27	47.11%	52.62%	-16.88	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-31	1445.20	1502.24	34.96%	64.80%	-10.59	1-2
1994-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1434.61	1506.71	46.69%	53.05%	-11.83	1-3
1994-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-15	1422.78	1513.92	43.98%	55.76%	+7.55	2-3
1994-10-09	@ New York Jets	L 6-16	1430.33	1467.06	37.66%	62.09%	-11.41	2-4
1994-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-17	1418.92	1545.78	26.46%	73.33%	+22.19	3-4
1994-10-23	Washington Redskins	L 27-41	1441.11	1434.04	58.00%	41.74%	-20.78	3-5
1994-10-30	New York Jets	W 28-25	1420.33	1488.55	47.25%	52.49%	+8.71	4-5
1994-11-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-22	1429.04	1564.89	25.47%	74.33%	-2.44	4-6
1994-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-13	1426.60	1389.18	48.06%	51.68%	+9.89	5-6
1994-11-27	New England Patriots	L 10-12	1436.49	1451.87	54.83%	44.91%	-7.42	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-19	1429.07	1451.44	39.61%	60.13%	+19.94	6-7
1994-12-11	@ New England Patriots	L 13-28	1449.01	1474.40	39.20%	60.55%	-14.55	6-8
1994-12-18	Miami Dolphins	W 10-6	1434.46	1554.84	39.88%	59.86%	+11.46	7-8
1994-12-24	Buffalo Bills	W 10-9	1445.92	1497.80	49.60%	50.14%	+4.80	8-8
1994-09-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-17	1522.77	1516.13	43.67%	56.07%	+19.35	1-0
1994-09-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1542.12	1590.05	50.16%	49.57%	+12.56	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-10	1554.68	1487.63	52.32%	47.41%	+20.31	3-0
1994-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-16	1574.99	1429.65	75.35%	24.45%	-28.83	3-1
1994-10-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-20	1546.16	1565.04	40.10%	59.65%	-14.38	3-2
1994-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1531.78	1467.72	51.89%	47.84%	+7.94	4-2
1994-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-23	1539.72	1490.03	63.83%	35.92%	+13.33	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-44	1553.05	1523.60	46.92%	52.82%	-26.20	5-3
1994-11-06	Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-3	1526.85	1506.61	59.84%	39.91%	+12.09	6-3
1994-11-13	San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1538.94	1585.24	50.40%	49.34%	-4.83	6-4
1994-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-13	1534.11	1569.75	51.93%	47.81%	+12.11	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-10	1546.22	1445.98	57.05%	42.69%	-5.46	7-5
1994-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1540.76	1502.94	62.24%	37.51%	-10.31	7-6
1994-12-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1530.45	1538.41	41.61%	58.13%	-16.44	7-7
1994-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 31-9	1514.01	1393.45	72.62%	27.17%	+12.21	8-7
1994-12-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 19-9	1526.22	1525.32	42.86%	56.88%	+17.22	9-7
1994-09-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-44	1500.33	1572.75	32.98%	66.79%	-17.30	0-1
1994-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-38	1483.03	1486.13	56.57%	43.17%	-29.17	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 48-16	1453.86	1493.41	37.28%	62.47%	+33.83	1-2
1994-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 24-26	1487.69	1558.69	46.85%	52.89%	-6.35	1-3
1994-10-09	@ New England Patriots	W 21-17	1481.34	1467.84	44.64%	55.10%	+10.55	2-3
1994-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1491.89	1540.57	36.06%	63.70%	-5.98	2-4
1994-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-17	1485.91	1478.59	58.04%	41.70%	+14.40	3-4
1994-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1500.31	1465.70	61.81%	37.94%	+6.30	4-4
1994-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-13	1506.61	1526.85	39.91%	59.84%	-12.09	4-5
1994-11-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1494.52	1458.67	47.84%	51.90%	+8.60	5-5
1994-11-20	New Orleans Saints	W 24-19	1503.12	1465.47	62.22%	37.53%	+8.04	6-5
1994-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-21	1511.16	1549.35	51.56%	48.17%	-20.94	6-6
1994-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1490.22	1584.40	30.27%	69.50%	+17.59	7-6
1994-12-11	Denver Broncos	W 23-13	1507.81	1513.26	56.24%	43.50%	+13.18	8-6
1994-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-16	1520.99	1438.63	54.51%	45.22%	+4.33	9-6
1994-12-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-19	1525.32	1526.22	56.88%	42.86%	-17.22	9-7
1994-09-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 14-12	1454.05	1491.05	51.74%	48.00%	+6.50	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-31	1460.55	1470.85	41.29%	58.46%	-16.78	1-1
1994-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-34	1443.77	1577.49	38.06%	61.69%	-14.12	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-0	1429.65	1574.99	24.45%	75.35%	+28.83	2-2
1994-10-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 5-8	1458.48	1482.29	53.63%	46.11%	-8.89	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1449.59	1508.75	34.68%	65.08%	-8.79	2-4
1994-10-16	New York Giants	W 17-10	1440.80	1509.58	47.17%	52.57%	+13.32	3-4
1994-10-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 34-37	1454.12	1456.92	42.34%	57.41%	-7.03	3-5
1994-11-06	Denver Broncos	W 27-21	1447.09	1493.54	50.38%	49.36%	+11.58	4-5
1994-11-13	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-20	1458.67	1494.52	51.90%	47.84%	-8.61	4-6
1994-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1450.06	1638.58	20.16%	79.66%	-3.86	4-7
1994-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-31	1446.20	1574.99	26.25%	73.54%	-9.40	4-8
1994-12-04	New Orleans Saints	L 15-31	1436.80	1443.65	56.04%	43.70%	-21.46	4-9
1994-12-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-24	1415.34	1393.57	45.82%	53.92%	-13.88	4-10
1994-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1401.46	1482.96	31.83%	67.94%	-11.41	4-11
1994-12-24	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1390.05	1397.52	55.96%	43.78%	-9.28	4-12
1994-09-04	New England Patriots	W 39-35	1508.37	1453.49	64.52%	35.24%	+6.75	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1515.12	1522.89	41.64%	58.10%	+17.59	2-0
1994-09-18	New York Jets	W 28-14	1532.71	1518.96	58.94%	40.81%	+14.62	3-0
1994-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 35-38	1547.33	1540.91	43.64%	56.10%	-7.24	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-7	1540.09	1402.62	62.20%	37.55%	+14.39	4-1
1994-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 11-21	1554.48	1531.87	45.94%	53.80%	-13.91	4-2
1994-10-16	Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-17	1540.57	1491.89	63.70%	36.06%	+5.98	5-2
1994-10-30	@ New England Patriots	W 23-3	1546.55	1447.21	56.92%	42.82%	+18.34	6-2
1994-11-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-21	1564.89	1429.04	74.33%	25.47%	+2.44	7-2
1994-11-13	Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1567.33	1483.37	68.24%	31.53%	-11.31	7-3
1994-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1556.02	1541.93	44.72%	55.01%	-7.41	7-4
1994-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 28-24	1548.61	1502.84	49.26%	50.47%	+9.66	8-4
1994-12-04	Buffalo Bills	L 31-42	1558.27	1517.99	62.57%	37.18%	-19.86	8-5
1994-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-28	1538.41	1530.45	58.13%	41.61%	+16.43	9-5
1994-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1554.84	1434.46	59.86%	39.88%	-11.45	9-6
1994-12-25	Detroit Lions	W 27-20	1543.39	1534.06	58.32%	41.42%	+10.49	10-6
1994-09-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1513.44	1512.85	42.81%	56.93%	-10.04	0-1
1994-09-11	Detroit Lions	W 10-3	1503.40	1503.33	57.02%	42.72%	+10.82	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 42-14	1514.22	1483.76	47.06%	52.67%	+26.69	2-1
1994-09-25	Miami Dolphins	W 38-35	1540.91	1547.33	56.10%	43.64%	+7.24	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-17	1548.15	1453.51	56.26%	43.48%	-17.03	3-2
1994-10-10	@ New York Giants	W 27-10	1531.12	1532.14	42.59%	57.16%	+22.55	4-2
1994-10-20	Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1553.67	1517.54	62.01%	37.74%	+6.26	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 36-13	1559.93	1413.54	63.40%	36.36%	+16.71	6-2
1994-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1576.64	1463.95	71.71%	28.07%	+2.69	7-2
1994-11-13	@ New England Patriots	L 20-26	1579.33	1421.59	64.90%	34.86%	-15.21	7-3
1994-11-20	New York Jets	L 21-31	1564.12	1482.27	67.98%	31.79%	-20.57	7-4
1994-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1543.55	1370.29	78.21%	21.61%	-12.96	7-5
1994-12-01	Chicago Bears	W 33-27	1530.59	1515.77	59.09%	40.66%	+9.54	8-5
1994-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1540.13	1537.85	43.05%	56.69%	+10.85	9-5
1994-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-41	1550.98	1512.40	48.23%	51.51%	-21.66	9-6
1994-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-14	1529.32	1696.91	33.59%	66.18%	+16.75	10-6
1994-09-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 35-39	1453.49	1508.37	35.24%	64.52%	-6.75	0-1
1994-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1446.74	1514.12	47.37%	52.37%	-7.86	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-28	1438.88	1419.63	45.46%	54.28%	+9.00	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1447.88	1504.54	35.01%	64.75%	+15.18	2-2
1994-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 17-16	1463.06	1513.53	49.80%	49.94%	+4.78	3-2
1994-10-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-21	1467.84	1481.34	55.10%	44.64%	-10.55	3-3
1994-10-16	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1457.29	1478.47	39.78%	59.97%	-10.08	3-4
1994-10-30	Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1447.21	1546.55	42.82%	56.92%	-18.34	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-13	1428.87	1535.92	28.73%	71.05%	-7.28	3-6
1994-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-20	1421.59	1579.33	34.86%	64.90%	+15.21	4-6
1994-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 23-17	1436.80	1590.06	35.45%	64.31%	+15.07	5-6
1994-11-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 12-10	1451.87	1436.49	44.91%	54.83%	+7.43	6-6
1994-12-04	New York Jets	W 24-13	1459.30	1493.17	52.18%	47.55%	+15.10	7-6
1994-12-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-13	1474.40	1449.01	60.55%	39.20%	+14.54	8-6
1994-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1488.94	1526.99	37.48%	62.27%	+29.20	9-6
1994-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-3	1518.14	1494.37	46.10%	53.63%	+16.24	10-6
1994-09-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-30	1516.13	1522.77	56.07%	43.67%	-19.35	0-1
1994-09-11	Washington Redskins	L 24-38	1496.78	1470.49	60.67%	39.08%	-21.73	0-2
1994-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-7	1475.05	1448.15	46.55%	53.18%	+7.20	1-2
1994-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-24	1482.25	1591.61	28.46%	71.32%	-9.04	1-3
1994-10-02	New York Giants	W 27-22	1473.21	1543.43	46.96%	52.78%	+11.30	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1484.51	1491.38	41.77%	57.98%	-12.65	2-4
1994-10-16	San Diego Chargers	L 22-36	1471.86	1579.41	41.66%	58.08%	-14.94	2-5
1994-10-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-34	1456.92	1454.12	57.41%	42.34%	+7.03	3-5
1994-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-21	1463.95	1576.64	28.07%	71.71%	-2.69	3-6
1994-11-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 33-32	1461.26	1470.00	55.77%	43.97%	+4.21	4-6
1994-11-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 19-24	1465.47	1503.12	37.53%	62.22%	-8.04	4-7
1994-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1457.43	1642.44	31.39%	68.38%	-13.78	4-8
1994-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-15	1443.65	1436.80	43.70%	56.04%	+21.46	5-8
1994-12-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-20	1465.11	1460.65	43.36%	56.38%	+16.19	6-8
1994-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-24	1481.30	1668.79	31.08%	68.69%	-8.42	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-28	1472.88	1490.78	40.23%	59.52%	+8.05	7-9
1994-09-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-23	1515.42	1526.02	55.51%	44.23%	+9.47	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1524.89	1484.55	48.48%	51.25%	+8.50	2-0
1994-09-18	Washington Redskins	W 31-23	1533.39	1492.22	62.69%	37.06%	+10.04	3-0
1994-10-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 22-27	1543.43	1473.21	52.78%	46.96%	-11.29	3-1
1994-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1532.14	1531.12	57.16%	42.59%	-22.56	3-2
1994-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1509.58	1440.80	52.57%	47.17%	-13.32	3-3
1994-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-10	1496.26	1516.92	54.08%	45.66%	-10.35	3-4
1994-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 25-28	1485.91	1473.66	58.73%	41.02%	-9.74	3-5
1994-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1476.17	1656.69	20.91%	78.91%	-10.59	3-6
1994-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 9-10	1465.58	1458.29	58.04%	41.71%	-5.56	3-7
1994-11-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1460.02	1442.58	45.20%	54.54%	+9.04	4-7
1994-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-19	1469.06	1428.60	48.50%	51.24%	+6.94	5-7
1994-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1476.00	1570.20	30.27%	69.50%	+11.52	6-7
1994-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1487.52	1361.72	73.21%	26.58%	+6.74	7-7
1994-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1494.26	1513.65	40.02%	59.72%	+9.90	8-7
1994-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 15-10	1504.16	1677.21	32.89%	66.88%	+14.31	9-7
1994-09-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-3	1484.39	1541.87	34.90%	64.86%	+27.76	1-0
1994-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 25-22	1512.15	1500.22	58.68%	41.06%	+6.81	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-28	1518.96	1532.71	40.81%	58.94%	-14.63	2-1
1994-09-25	Chicago Bears	L 7-19	1504.33	1457.07	63.51%	36.25%	-21.05	2-2
1994-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1483.28	1518.54	37.86%	61.89%	-16.22	2-3
1994-10-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-6	1467.06	1430.33	62.09%	37.66%	+11.41	3-3
1994-10-16	New England Patriots	W 24-17	1478.47	1457.29	59.97%	39.78%	+10.08	4-3
1994-10-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 25-28	1488.55	1420.33	52.49%	47.25%	-8.70	4-4
1994-11-06	Buffalo Bills	W 22-17	1479.85	1549.80	47.00%	52.74%	+11.29	5-4
1994-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-17	1491.14	1547.93	34.99%	64.77%	-8.87	5-5
1994-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-21	1482.27	1564.12	31.79%	67.98%	+20.57	6-5
1994-11-27	Miami Dolphins	L 24-28	1502.84	1548.61	50.47%	49.26%	-9.67	6-6
1994-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 13-24	1493.17	1459.30	47.55%	52.18%	-15.10	6-7
1994-12-10	Detroit Lions	L 7-18	1478.07	1495.06	54.60%	45.14%	-17.34	6-8
1994-12-18	San Diego Chargers	L 6-21	1460.73	1547.26	44.63%	55.11%	-16.55	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1444.18	1381.24	51.73%	48.00%	-18.54	6-10
1994-09-04	@ New York Giants	L 23-28	1526.02	1515.42	44.23%	55.51%	-9.47	0-1
1994-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 30-22	1516.55	1494.50	60.09%	39.66%	+10.75	1-1
1994-09-18	Green Bay Packers	W 13-7	1527.30	1505.30	60.08%	39.67%	+9.31	2-1
1994-10-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-8	1536.61	1600.66	34.05%	65.71%	+35.57	3-1
1994-10-09	Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1572.18	1448.30	72.99%	26.80%	+5.13	4-1
1994-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-24	1577.31	1633.95	35.01%	64.75%	-11.12	4-2
1994-10-24	Houston Oilers	W 21-6	1566.19	1477.16	68.87%	30.90%	+11.46	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-29	1577.65	1454.81	60.20%	39.54%	+5.36	6-2
1994-11-06	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-7	1583.01	1466.67	72.13%	27.65%	+8.38	7-2
1994-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-26	1591.39	1543.21	63.63%	36.12%	-26.55	7-3
1994-11-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-12	1564.84	1463.85	57.16%	42.58%	-13.40	7-4
1994-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-28	1551.44	1458.30	56.05%	43.69%	-14.19	7-5
1994-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-31	1537.25	1671.86	37.94%	61.81%	-12.59	7-6
1994-12-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1524.66	1584.17	34.63%	65.12%	-11.01	7-7
1994-12-18	New York Giants	L 13-16	1513.65	1494.26	59.72%	40.02%	-9.90	7-8
1994-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-33	1503.75	1343.92	65.17%	34.59%	-10.80	7-9
1994-09-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 9-26	1505.05	1590.81	44.74%	55.00%	-17.67	0-1
1994-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-10	1487.38	1499.02	41.10%	58.64%	+14.86	1-1
1994-09-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-21	1502.24	1445.20	64.80%	34.96%	+10.59	2-1
1994-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1512.83	1496.11	45.10%	54.64%	-17.81	2-2
1994-10-03	Houston Oilers	W 30-14	1495.02	1502.21	56.00%	43.75%	+16.76	3-2
1994-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-10	1511.78	1388.23	72.95%	26.83%	+5.14	4-2
1994-10-23	@ New York Giants	W 10-6	1516.92	1496.26	45.66%	54.08%	+10.35	5-2
1994-10-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1527.27	1457.94	52.65%	47.09%	-8.73	5-3
1994-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 12-9	1518.54	1459.40	51.19%	48.55%	+8.05	6-3
1994-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1526.59	1538.51	55.32%	44.41%	+15.34	7-3
1994-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1541.93	1556.02	55.01%	44.72%	+7.42	8-3
1994-11-27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-3	1549.35	1511.16	48.17%	51.56%	+20.95	9-3
1994-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-15	1570.30	1375.60	69.57%	30.20%	+13.87	10-3
1994-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-3	1584.17	1524.66	65.12%	34.63%	+11.01	11-3
1994-12-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1595.18	1574.34	59.92%	39.83%	+12.06	12-3
1994-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-37	1607.24	1563.81	48.93%	50.81%	-8.11	12-4
1994-09-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 37-34	1518.40	1509.46	43.99%	55.75%	+9.24	1-0
1994-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1527.64	1431.49	69.74%	30.03%	+11.87	2-0
1994-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1539.51	1515.30	46.17%	53.57%	+19.18	3-0
1994-09-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 26-24	1558.69	1487.69	52.89%	46.85%	+6.35	4-0
1994-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1565.04	1546.16	59.65%	40.10%	+14.37	5-0
1994-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-22	1579.41	1471.86	58.08%	41.66%	+14.93	6-0
1994-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 15-20	1594.34	1459.79	74.18%	25.61%	-15.87	6-1
1994-10-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-15	1578.47	1476.70	70.42%	29.36%	+12.58	7-1
1994-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 9-10	1591.05	1464.19	60.76%	38.99%	-5.81	7-2
1994-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-13	1585.24	1538.94	49.34%	50.40%	+4.82	8-2
1994-11-20	@ New England Patriots	L 17-23	1590.06	1436.80	64.31%	35.45%	-15.07	8-3
1994-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-17	1574.99	1446.20	73.54%	26.25%	+9.41	9-3
1994-12-05	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1584.40	1490.22	69.50%	30.27%	-17.60	9-4
1994-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 15-38	1566.80	1668.06	42.55%	57.20%	-19.54	9-5
1994-12-18	@ New York Jets	W 21-6	1547.26	1460.73	55.11%	44.63%	+16.55	10-5
1994-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-34	1563.81	1607.24	50.81%	48.93%	+8.12	11-5
1994-09-05	Los Angeles Raiders	W 44-14	1572.75	1500.33	66.79%	32.98%	+17.30	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-24	1590.05	1542.12	49.57%	50.16%	-12.56	1-1
1994-09-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-19	1577.49	1443.77	61.69%	38.06%	+14.12	2-1
1994-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1591.61	1482.25	71.32%	28.46%	+9.05	3-1
1994-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 8-40	1600.66	1536.61	65.71%	34.05%	-35.57	3-2
1994-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1565.09	1473.57	55.82%	43.92%	+10.30	4-2
1994-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 42-3	1575.39	1506.82	52.54%	47.20%	+28.23	5-2
1994-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-16	1603.62	1423.57	78.86%	20.95%	+10.03	6-2
1994-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-22	1613.65	1449.46	65.74%	34.02%	+12.62	7-2
1994-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-14	1626.27	1667.28	51.16%	48.58%	+12.31	8-2
1994-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1638.58	1450.06	79.66%	20.16%	+3.86	9-2
1994-11-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-14	1642.44	1457.43	68.38%	31.39%	+13.78	10-2
1994-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 50-14	1656.22	1472.49	79.22%	20.60%	+11.84	11-2
1994-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 38-15	1668.06	1566.80	57.20%	42.55%	+19.55	12-2
1994-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 42-19	1687.61	1500.08	79.57%	20.25%	+9.30	13-2
1994-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-21	1696.91	1529.32	66.18%	33.59%	-16.76	13-3
1994-09-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-7	1458.76	1497.86	37.34%	62.41%	+27.37	1-0
1994-09-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-9	1486.13	1483.03	43.17%	56.57%	+29.17	2-0
1994-09-18	San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1515.30	1539.51	53.57%	46.17%	-19.19	2-1
1994-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1496.11	1512.83	54.64%	45.10%	+17.81	3-1
1994-10-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-17	1513.92	1422.78	55.76%	43.98%	-7.55	3-2
1994-10-09	Denver Broncos	L 9-16	1506.37	1451.39	64.53%	35.23%	-16.34	3-3
1994-10-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-38	1490.03	1539.72	35.92%	63.83%	-13.33	3-4
1994-10-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 15-35	1476.70	1578.47	29.36%	70.42%	-12.58	3-5
1994-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1464.12	1368.87	69.63%	30.14%	-11.54	3-6
1994-11-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1452.58	1481.96	38.65%	61.09%	-9.80	3-7
1994-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-21	1442.78	1373.49	66.39%	33.37%	+3.20	4-7
1994-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 10-9	1445.98	1546.22	42.69%	57.05%	+5.46	5-7
1994-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-31	1451.44	1429.07	60.13%	39.61%	-19.93	5-8
1994-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 16-14	1431.51	1400.57	47.13%	52.61%	+7.12	6-8
1994-12-18	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-17	1438.63	1520.99	45.22%	54.51%	-4.33	6-9
1994-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-35	1434.30	1562.28	26.33%	73.45%	-12.87	6-10
1994-09-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-21	1443.69	1482.08	37.43%	62.32%	-12.42	0-1
1994-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1431.27	1462.08	52.62%	47.11%	+16.88	1-1
1994-09-18	New Orleans Saints	L 7-9	1448.15	1475.05	53.18%	46.55%	-7.20	1-2
1994-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-30	1440.95	1496.00	35.22%	64.54%	-17.53	1-3
1994-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1423.42	1489.37	47.57%	52.17%	+15.79	2-3
1994-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-34	1439.21	1491.18	35.62%	64.13%	-15.64	2-4
1994-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-41	1423.57	1603.62	20.95%	78.86%	-10.03	2-5
1994-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-36	1413.54	1559.93	36.36%	63.40%	-16.71	2-6
1994-11-06	Chicago Bears	L 6-20	1396.83	1466.52	47.04%	52.70%	-16.85	2-7
1994-11-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-14	1379.98	1473.85	30.31%	69.46%	-6.49	2-8
1994-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-22	1373.49	1442.78	33.37%	66.39%	-3.20	2-9
1994-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1370.29	1543.55	21.61%	78.21%	+12.96	3-9
1994-12-04	Washington Redskins	W 26-21	1383.25	1421.66	51.53%	48.20%	+10.32	4-9
1994-12-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1393.57	1415.34	53.92%	45.82%	+13.87	5-9
1994-12-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1407.44	1406.96	42.80%	56.94%	+9.45	6-9
1994-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 19-34	1416.89	1555.10	37.45%	62.30%	-13.90	6-10
1994-09-04	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-28	1497.86	1458.76	62.41%	37.34%	-27.37	0-1
1994-09-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-24	1470.49	1496.78	39.08%	60.67%	+21.73	1-1
1994-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 23-31	1492.22	1533.39	37.06%	62.69%	-10.04	1-2
1994-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-27	1482.18	1467.32	59.09%	40.65%	-14.97	1-3
1994-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-34	1467.21	1601.46	37.99%	61.76%	-18.91	1-4
1994-10-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1448.30	1572.18	26.80%	72.99%	-5.13	1-5
1994-10-16	Arizona Cardinals	L 16-19	1443.17	1456.96	55.06%	44.68%	-9.13	1-6
1994-10-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 41-27	1434.04	1441.11	41.74%	58.00%	+20.77	2-6
1994-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-31	1454.81	1577.65	39.54%	60.20%	-5.35	2-7
1994-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-37	1449.46	1613.65	34.02%	65.74%	-12.63	2-8
1994-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1436.83	1654.98	17.56%	82.28%	-8.23	2-9
1994-11-27	New York Giants	L 19-21	1428.60	1469.06	51.24%	48.50%	-6.94	2-10
1994-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-26	1421.66	1383.25	48.20%	51.53%	-10.32	2-11
1994-12-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-17	1411.34	1488.90	32.32%	67.44%	-4.38	2-12
1994-12-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-17	1406.96	1407.44	56.94%	42.80%	-9.44	2-13
1994-12-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1397.52	1390.05	43.78%	55.96%	+9.27	3-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1995-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-18	1478.14	1546.07	33.65%	66.35%	+26.12	1-0
1995-01-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 15-44	1504.26	1680.15	21.41%	78.59%	-11.01	1-1
1995-01-01	New England Patriots	W 20-13	1575.14	1534.38	62.77%	37.23%	+9.41	1-0
1995-01-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-29	1584.55	1599.13	40.81%	59.19%	-17.43	1-1
1995-01-08	Green Bay Packers	W 35-9	1662.91	1575.99	68.74%	31.26%	+15.22	1-0
1995-01-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1678.13	1691.17	41.03%	58.97%	-12.39	1-1
1994-12-31	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-16	1523.56	1569.00	36.60%	63.40%	-6.99	0-1
1994-12-31	Detroit Lions	W 16-12	1569.00	1523.56	63.40%	36.60%	+6.99	1-0
1995-01-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-35	1575.99	1662.91	31.26%	68.74%	-15.22	1-1
1994-12-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-27	1543.44	1553.88	41.39%	58.61%	-12.50	0-1
1994-12-31	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1553.88	1543.44	58.61%	41.39%	+12.50	1-0
1995-01-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-22	1566.38	1571.93	42.08%	57.92%	-4.02	1-1
1995-01-01	Chicago Bears	L 18-35	1546.07	1478.14	66.35%	33.65%	-26.12	0-1
1995-01-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1534.38	1575.14	37.23%	62.77%	-9.41	0-1
1995-01-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-9	1599.13	1584.55	59.19%	40.81%	+17.43	1-0
1995-01-15	San Diego Chargers	L 13-17	1616.56	1575.95	62.75%	37.25%	-11.99	1-1
1995-01-08	Miami Dolphins	W 22-21	1571.93	1566.38	57.92%	42.08%	+4.02	1-0
1995-01-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-13	1575.95	1616.56	37.25%	62.75%	+11.98	2-0
1995-01-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 26-49	1587.93	1703.56	33.95%	66.05%	-15.55	2-1
1995-01-07	Chicago Bears	W 44-15	1680.15	1504.26	78.59%	21.41%	+11.02	1-0
1995-01-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-28	1691.17	1678.13	58.97%	41.03%	+12.39	2-0
1995-01-29	San Diego Chargers	W 49-26	1703.56	1587.93	66.05%	33.95%	+15.55	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1994-11-27	21.61%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1370.29	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1543.55	17
2	1994-09-25	24.45%	Los Angeles Rams	1429.65	16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1574.99	0
3	1994-10-23	25.61%	Denver Broncos	1459.79	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1594.34	15
4	1994-10-16	26.46%	Indianapolis Colts	1418.92	27	@ Buffalo Bills	1545.78	17
5	1994-12-10	26.58%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1558.68	19	@ Dallas Cowboys	1684.45	14
6	1994-09-19	27.12%	Detroit Lions	1492.50	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1613.50	17
7	1994-11-06	30.14%	Cincinnati Bengals	1368.87	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1464.12	17
8	1994-12-04	30.27%	New York Giants	1476.00	16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1570.20	13
9	1994-12-05	30.27%	Los Angeles Raiders	1490.22	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1584.40	17
10	1994-11-13	31.53%	Chicago Bears	1483.37	17	@ Miami Dolphins	1567.33	14
11	1994-11-20	31.79%	New York Jets	1482.27	31	@ Minnesota Vikings	1564.12	21
12	1994-12-24	32.89%	@ New York Giants	1504.16	15	Dallas Cowboys	1677.21	10
13	1994-12-26	33.59%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1529.32	21	San Francisco 49ers	1696.91	14
14	1995-01-01 *	33.65%	Chicago Bears	1478.14	35	@ Minnesota Vikings	1546.07	18
15	1994-10-02	34.05%	Philadelphia Eagles	1536.61	40	@ San Francisco 49ers	1600.66	8
16	1994-12-24	34.59%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1343.92	33	Philadelphia Eagles	1503.75	30
17	1994-11-13	34.86%	@ New England Patriots	1421.59	26	Minnesota Vikings	1579.33	20
18	1994-09-04	34.90%	New York Jets	1484.39	23	@ Buffalo Bills	1541.87	3
19	1994-09-25	35.01%	New England Patriots	1447.88	23	@ Detroit Lions	1504.54	17
20	1994-10-09	35.23%	Denver Broncos	1451.39	16	@ Seattle Seahawks	1506.37	9
21	1994-11-20	35.45%	@ New England Patriots	1436.80	23	San Diego Chargers	1590.06	17
22	1994-11-13	36.12%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1543.21	26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1591.39	7
23	1994-09-25	36.25%	Chicago Bears	1457.07	19	@ New York Jets	1504.33	7
24	1994-12-04	37.18%	Buffalo Bills	1517.99	42	@ Miami Dolphins	1558.27	31
25	1995-01-15 *	37.25%	San Diego Chargers	1575.95	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1616.56	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1994-10-02	35.57	Philadelphia Eagles	40	1536.61	34.05%	@ San Francisco 49ers	8	1600.66	65.71%
2	1994-09-18	33.83	Los Angeles Raiders	48	1453.86	37.28%	@ Denver Broncos	16	1493.41	62.47%
3	1994-12-18	29.20	New England Patriots	41	1488.94	37.48%	@ Buffalo Bills	17	1526.99	62.27%
4	1994-09-11	29.17	Seattle Seahawks	38	1486.13	43.17%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	9	1483.03	56.57%
5	1994-09-25	28.83	Los Angeles Rams	16	1429.65	24.45%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	0	1574.99	75.35%
6	1994-10-16	28.23	San Francisco 49ers	42	1575.39	52.54%	@ Atlanta Falcons	3	1506.82	47.20%
7	1994-09-04	27.76	New York Jets	23	1484.39	34.90%	@ Buffalo Bills	3	1541.87	64.86%
8	1994-09-04	27.37	Seattle Seahawks	28	1458.76	37.34%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1497.86	62.41%
9	1994-09-04	27.16	@ Indianapolis Colts	45	1434.92	41.83%	Houston Oilers	21	1541.33	57.92%
10	1994-10-31	27.11	Green Bay Packers	33	1511.28	45.23%	@ Chicago Bears	6	1493.63	54.51%
11	1994-09-18	26.69	Minnesota Vikings	42	1514.22	47.06%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1483.76	52.67%
12	1994-11-13	26.55	Cleveland Browns (1st)	26	1543.21	36.12%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1591.39	63.63%
13	1994-10-30	26.20	@ Buffalo Bills	44	1523.60	52.82%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1553.05	46.92%
14	1995-01-01 *	26.12	Chicago Bears	35	1478.14	33.65%	@ Minnesota Vikings	18	1546.07	66.35%
15	1994-12-11	23.27	@ Green Bay Packers	40	1526.29	59.81%	Chicago Bears	3	1506.23	39.93%
16	1994-10-10	22.56	Minnesota Vikings	27	1531.12	42.59%	@ New York Giants	10	1532.14	57.16%
17	1994-09-18	22.54	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	32	1484.17	58.15%	Arizona Cardinals	0	1476.05	41.59%
18	1994-10-16	22.19	Indianapolis Colts	27	1418.92	26.46%	@ Buffalo Bills	17	1545.78	73.33%
19	1994-09-11	21.73	Washington Redskins	38	1470.49	39.08%	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1496.78	60.67%
20	1994-12-17	21.66	@ Detroit Lions	41	1512.40	51.51%	Minnesota Vikings	19	1550.98	48.23%
21	1994-12-04	21.46	New Orleans Saints	31	1443.65	43.70%	@ Los Angeles Rams	15	1436.80	56.04%
22	1994-09-25	21.06	Chicago Bears	19	1457.07	36.25%	@ New York Jets	7	1504.33	63.51%
23	1994-11-27	20.95	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1549.35	48.17%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	3	1511.16	51.56%
24	1994-10-23	20.78	Washington Redskins	41	1434.04	41.74%	@ Indianapolis Colts	27	1441.11	58.00%
25	1994-11-20	20.57	New York Jets	31	1482.27	31.79%	@ Minnesota Vikings	21	1564.12	67.98%