2004 MLS Season
150 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams
Champion
DC United
1st Title
Runner-Up
Kansas City Wizards
2nd Appearance
Last Appearance: 2000
Biggest Overachiever
Kansas City Wizards
8.56 points above expected
49 points · 40.44 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Chicago Fire
9.38 points below expected
33 points · 42.38 expected points
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew Conference | 12 | 5 | 13 | 49 | .544 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 40.74 | +8.26 |
| 2 | DC United Playoffs | 11 | 10 | 9 | 42 | .467 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 39.37 | +2.63 |
| 3 | MetroStars Playoffs | 11 | 12 | 7 | 40 | .444 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 40.31 | -0.31 |
| 4 | New England Revolution Playoffs | 8 | 13 | 9 | 33 | .367 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 40.43 | -7.43 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 8 | 13 | 9 | 33 | .367 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 42.38 | -9.38 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Wizards Conference | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | .544 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40.44 | +8.56 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Galaxy Playoffs | 11 | 9 | 10 | 43 | .478 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 41.42 | +1.58 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids Playoffs | 10 | 9 | 11 | 41 | .456 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 39.14 | +1.86 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes Playoffs | 9 | 10 | 11 | 38 | .422 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 43.29 | -5.29 |
| 5 | Dallas Burn | 10 | 14 | 6 | 36 | .400 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 36.90 | -0.90 |
Playoff Bracket
Eastern Conference
Conference Semifinals
New England Revolution
2
Columbus Crew
0
DC United
2
MetroStars
0
Conference Final
DC United
3
New England Revolution
3
Western Conference
Conference Semifinals
Los Angeles Galaxy
2
Colorado Rapids
0
Kansas City Wizards
2
San Jose Earthquakes
0
Conference Final
Kansas City Wizards
2
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
MLS Cup
DC United
3
Kansas City Wizards
2
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | Western | 1525 | 38 | 43.29 | -5.29 | 23.93% | 15 | 32 | 39 | 43 | 48 | 54 | 71 | |
| Columbus Crew | Eastern | 1511 | 49 | 40.74 | +8.26 | 90.40% | 16 | 30 | 36 | 41 | 45 | 52 | 69 | |
| Chicago Fire | Eastern | 1508 | 33 | 42.38 | -9.38 | 9.11% | 17 | 32 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 54 | 76 | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | Western | 1506 | 43 | 41.42 | +1.58 | 62.33% | 14 | 31 | 37 | 41 | 46 | 53 | 72 | |
| Kansas City Wizards | Western | 1504 | 49 | 40.44 | +8.56 | 90.99% | 14 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 71 | |
| New England Revolution | Eastern | 1501 | 33 | 40.43 | -7.43 | 15.02% | 13 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 70 | |
| MetroStars | Eastern | 1500 | 40 | 40.31 | -0.31 | 51.48% | 12 | 29 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 69 | |
| DC United | Eastern | 1494 | 42 | 39.37 | +2.63 | 68.42% | 13 | 29 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 50 | 71 | |
| Colorado Rapids | Western | 1489 | 41 | 39.14 | +1.86 | 64.38% | 14 | 28 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 50 | 73 | |
| Dallas Burn | Western | 1461 | 36 | 36.90 | -0.90 | 48.29% | 12 | 26 | 32 | 37 | 41 | 48 | 68 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within Eastern
| Team | Fire | Crew | United | MetroStars | Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | — |
1
(5.6 exp.)
|
9
(5.7 exp.)
|
5
(5.7 exp.)
|
4
(5.6 exp.)
|
| Columbus Crew |
10
(5.2 exp.)
|
— |
5
(5.6 exp.)
|
5
(5.5 exp.)
|
8
(5.4 exp.)
|
| DC United |
3
(5.1 exp.)
|
5
(5.2 exp.)
|
— |
9
(5.3 exp.)
|
8
(5.2 exp.)
|
| MetroStars |
5
(5.1 exp.)
|
5
(5.3 exp.)
|
3
(5.5 exp.)
|
— |
5
(5.4 exp.)
|
| New England Revolution |
7
(5.2 exp.)
|
2
(5.4 exp.)
|
2
(5.5 exp.)
|
5
(5.4 exp.)
|
— |
Eastern vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Rapids | Burn | Wizards | Galaxy | Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire |
3
(4.7 exp.)
|
0
(3.0 exp.)
|
5
(3.9 exp.)
|
1
(3.8 exp.)
|
5
(4.4 exp.)
|
| Columbus Crew |
2
(3.8 exp.)
|
5
(4.7 exp.)
|
4
(4.4 exp.)
|
4
(3.6 exp.)
|
6
(2.5 exp.)
|
| DC United |
4
(4.4 exp.)
|
4
(3.9 exp.)
|
3
(2.6 exp.)
|
2
(4.2 exp.)
|
4
(3.4 exp.)
|
| MetroStars |
0
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(4.8 exp.)
|
6
(3.7 exp.)
|
9
(4.3 exp.)
|
4
(3.4 exp.)
|
| New England Revolution |
4
(3.8 exp.)
|
6
(4.0 exp.)
|
3
(4.4 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
1
(4.2 exp.)
|
Within Western
| Team | Rapids | Burn | Wizards | Galaxy | Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | — |
5
(5.7 exp.)
|
3
(5.3 exp.)
|
3
(5.1 exp.)
|
5
(4.9 exp.)
|
| Dallas Burn |
5
(5.1 exp.)
|
— |
3
(5.0 exp.)
|
3
(4.8 exp.)
|
4
(4.6 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Wizards |
9
(5.5 exp.)
|
9
(5.8 exp.)
|
— |
8
(5.3 exp.)
|
5
(5.1 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Galaxy |
6
(5.7 exp.)
|
9
(6.0 exp.)
|
2
(5.5 exp.)
|
— |
7
(5.1 exp.)
|
| San Jose Earthquakes |
5
(5.9 exp.)
|
7
(6.2 exp.)
|
5
(5.7 exp.)
|
4
(5.6 exp.)
|
— |
Western vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Fire | Crew | United | MetroStars | Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids |
6
(3.4 exp.)
|
5
(4.2 exp.)
|
4
(3.7 exp.)
|
6
(2.6 exp.)
|
4
(4.3 exp.)
|
| Dallas Burn |
6
(2.4 exp.)
|
2
(3.4 exp.)
|
4
(4.2 exp.)
|
6
(3.3 exp.)
|
3
(4.1 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Wizards |
2
(4.2 exp.)
|
4
(3.7 exp.)
|
3
(2.8 exp.)
|
3
(4.4 exp.)
|
6
(3.7 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Galaxy |
7
(4.3 exp.)
|
4
(4.5 exp.)
|
5
(3.8 exp.)
|
0
(3.8 exp.)
|
3
(2.7 exp.)
|
| San Jose Earthquakes |
2
(3.7 exp.)
|
0
(2.9 exp.)
|
4
(4.7 exp.)
|
4
(4.7 exp.)
|
7
(3.9 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
Win
Loss
Same range
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.67% | 9.33% | 5.33% | 2.67% | — | — | 26.00% |
| 1 | 9.33% | 15.33% | 6.67% | 5.33% | 0.67% | 1.00% | 38.33% |
| 2 | 5.33% | 6.67% | 5.33% | 2.33% | 1.00% | 0.33% | 21.00% |
| 3 | 2.67% | 5.33% | 2.33% | 0.67% | — | — | 11.00% |
| 4 | — | 0.67% | 1.00% | — | — | — | 1.67% |
| 5+ | — | 1.00% | 0.33% | — | — | 0.67% | 2.00% |
| Total | 26.00% | 38.33% | 21.00% | 11.00% | 1.67% | 2.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.31 | 1.31 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| CV | 0.89 | 0.89 | — |
| Max | 6 | 6 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 150
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.67% | 6.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | — | 26.67% |
| 1 | 6.67% | 16.67% | 6.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | 43.33% |
| 2 | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | 13.33% |
| 3 | 6.67% | 6.67% | — | 3.33% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 23.33% | 33.33% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 3.33% | — | 100% |
Chicago Fire — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.20 | 1.47 | -0.27 |
| SD | 1.03 | 1.17 | 1.64 |
| CV | 0.86 | 0.80 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 13.33% | 6.67% | — | — | — | 36.67% |
| 1 | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | 6.67% | — | 3.33% | 40.00% |
| 2 | 3.33% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 13.33% |
| 3 | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 46.67% | 10.00% | 6.67% | — | 3.33% | 100% |
Colorado Rapids — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.97 | 1.07 | -0.10 |
| SD | 0.96 | 1.26 | 1.54 |
| CV | 1.00 | 1.18 | — |
| Max | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | 16.67% | 16.67% | 3.33% | 6.67% | — | — | 43.33% |
| 2 | 3.33% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | 23.33% |
| 3 | — | 6.67% | — | 3.33% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 36.67% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Columbus Crew — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.33 | 1.07 | +0.27 |
| SD | 1.03 | 0.98 | 1.11 |
| CV | 0.77 | 0.92 | — |
| Max | 4 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | 23.33% |
| 1 | 13.33% | 16.67% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | 3.33% | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | 3.33% | 6.67% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 3.33% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| Total | 23.33% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 100% |
DC United — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.43 | 1.40 | +0.03 |
| SD | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| CV | 0.93 | 0.89 | — |
| Max | 6 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.67% | 3.33% | 13.33% | 10.00% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 1 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 40.00% |
| 2 | 10.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 4 | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 5+ | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| Total | 26.67% | 26.67% | 26.67% | 13.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 100% |
Dallas Burn — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.13 | 1.50 | -0.37 |
| SD | 1.22 | 1.31 | 2.01 |
| CV | 1.08 | 0.87 | — |
| Max | 5 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | 26.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% | 6.67% | — | — | 46.67% |
| 2 | 6.67% | 6.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | — | 26.67% |
| 3 | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| Total | 40.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Kansas City Wizards — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.27 | 1.00 | +0.27 |
| SD | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.36 |
| CV | 0.83 | 1.02 | — |
| Max | 5 | 3 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 6.67% | — | — | 23.33% |
| 1 | 3.33% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | — | 36.67% |
| 2 | 10.00% | 6.67% | 3.33% | — | 3.33% | — | 23.33% |
| 3 | — | 3.33% | 6.67% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 6.67% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 23.33% | 36.67% | 26.67% | 10.00% | 3.33% | — | 100% |
Los Angeles Galaxy — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 1.33 | +0.07 |
| SD | 1.16 | 1.06 | 1.53 |
| CV | 0.83 | 0.80 | — |
| Max | 4 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 13.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | 3.33% | 20.00% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | 6.67% | 10.00% | — | 6.67% | 3.33% | 3.33% | 30.00% |
| 3 | 6.67% | 3.33% | 6.67% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33% | 3.33% |
| Total | 16.67% | 46.67% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 3.33% | 6.67% | 100% |
MetroStars — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.57 | 1.63 | -0.07 |
| SD | 1.19 | 1.47 | 1.66 |
| CV | 0.76 | 0.90 | — |
| Max | 5 | 6 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.67% | 16.67% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 26.67% |
| 1 | — | 13.33% | 6.67% | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | 3.33% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 6.67% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 3 | 3.33% | 3.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| Total | 13.33% | 46.67% | 23.33% | 16.67% | — | — | 100% |
New England Revolution — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 1.43 | -0.03 |
| SD | 1.30 | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| CV | 0.93 | 0.65 | — |
| Max | 6 | 3 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 30
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33% | 13.33% | 3.33% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 1 | 3.33% | 13.33% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | 6.67% | 3.33% | 6.67% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 3.33% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 13.33% |
| 4 | — | — | 3.33% | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33% | 3.33% |
| Total | 26.67% | 40.00% | 30.00% | — | — | 3.33% | 100% |
San Jose Earthquakes — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.37 | 1.17 | +0.20 |
| SD | 1.33 | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| CV | 0.97 | 0.90 | — |
| Max | 5 | 5 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 30
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.01 | +0.9 |
| Allowed | 0.44 | -5.8 |
| Differential | 0.55 | +6.6 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Wizards | 49 | 40.44 | +8.56 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 49 | 40.74 | +8.26 |
| 3 | DC United | 42 | 39.37 | +2.63 |
| 4 | Colorado Rapids | 41 | 39.14 | +1.86 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 43 | 41.42 | +1.58 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Fire | 33 | 42.38 | -9.38 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 33 | 40.43 | -7.43 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 38 | 43.29 | -5.29 |
| 4 | Dallas Burn | 36 | 36.90 | -0.90 |
| 5 | MetroStars | 40 | 40.31 | -0.31 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew | 4 | May 15 – Jun 6 | 1 in 110 |
| 2 | Colorado Rapids | 3 | Jun 27 – Jul 5 | 1 in 48 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 3 | Jul 25 – Aug 8 | 1 in 22 |
| 4 | DC United | 3 | Oct 3 – Oct 17 | 1 in 22 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 3 | Jun 28 – Jul 11 | 1 in 21 |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Burn | 4 | May 8 – May 30 | 1 in 50 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 3 | Jun 6 – Jun 20 | 1 in 46 |
| 3 | Kansas City Wizards | 3 | Jul 29 – Aug 19 | 1 in 40 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3 | Jul 5 – Jul 10 | 1 in 29 |
| 5 | MetroStars | 3 | Jun 27 – Jul 3 | 1 in 22 |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew | 18 | Jul 4 – Oct 17 | 1 in 2,537 |
| 2 | Kansas City Wizards | 9 | Jun 6 – Jul 25 | 1 in 92 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 7 | Jul 12 – Aug 15 | 1 in 43 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 6 | Jun 28 – Jul 25 | 1 in 20 |
| 5 | Colorado Rapids | 5 | Jun 13 – Jul 5 | 1 in 12 |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Fire | 9 | Jun 12 – Jul 29 | 1 in 60 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 7 | Sep 9 – Oct 17 | 1 in 27 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 7 | Jul 15 – Sep 5 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 5 | Aug 15 – Sep 12 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Kansas City Wizards | 4 | Jul 25 – Aug 19 | 1 in 8 |
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 27.68% | 22.49% | 19.39% | 16.90% | 13.54% |
| Columbus Crew | 19.96% | 20.49% | 20.48% | 19.69% | 19.38% |
| New England Revolution | 18.83% | 19.75% | 20.32% | 20.52% | 20.57% |
| MetroStars | 18.58% | 19.61% | 20.06% | 20.72% | 21.02% |
| DC United | 14.95% | 17.66% | 19.75% | 22.16% | 25.48% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 33.59% | 24.32% | 18.64% | 14.05% | 9.40% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 23.58% | 22.77% | 21.02% | 18.02% | 14.61% |
| Kansas City Wizards | 19.45% | 21.14% | 21.20% | 20.47% | 17.74% |
| Colorado Rapids | 14.63% | 18.37% | 21.06% | 23.08% | 22.86% |
| Dallas Burn | 8.75% | 13.41% | 18.08% | 24.38% | 35.38% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 18.08% | 14.34% | 12.61% | 11.09% | 9.96% | 8.95% | 8.03% | 6.81% | 5.72% | 4.40% |
| Chicago Fire | 14.82% | 12.98% | 11.77% | 11.18% | 10.27% | 9.40% | 8.86% | 8.06% | 7.11% | 5.54% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 11.77% | 11.60% | 11.20% | 10.85% | 10.32% | 10.01% | 9.55% | 9.00% | 8.33% | 7.37% |
| Columbus Crew | 9.96% | 10.34% | 10.54% | 10.49% | 10.42% | 10.28% | 10.08% | 9.84% | 9.41% | 8.64% |
| Kansas City Wizards | 9.53% | 9.88% | 10.06% | 9.99% | 10.47% | 10.40% | 10.19% | 10.15% | 9.91% | 9.43% |
| New England Revolution | 9.45% | 9.92% | 10.08% | 10.28% | 10.18% | 10.33% | 10.07% | 10.26% | 10.03% | 9.40% |
| MetroStars | 9.02% | 9.99% | 9.99% | 10.19% | 10.20% | 10.37% | 10.23% | 10.34% | 10.06% | 9.60% |
| DC United | 7.13% | 8.14% | 8.97% | 9.49% | 9.84% | 10.39% | 11.00% | 11.18% | 11.74% | 12.11% |
| Colorado Rapids | 6.58% | 7.91% | 8.61% | 9.26% | 9.98% | 10.50% | 11.06% | 11.45% | 12.15% | 12.51% |
| Dallas Burn | 3.64% | 4.90% | 6.15% | 7.17% | 8.36% | 9.38% | 10.94% | 12.91% | 15.53% | 21.01% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 27.68% | 22.49% | 19.39% | 16.90% | 13.54% |
| Columbus Crew | 19.96% | 20.49% | 20.48% | 19.69% | 19.38% |
| New England Revolution | 18.83% | 19.75% | 20.32% | 20.52% | 20.57% |
| MetroStars | 18.58% | 19.61% | 20.06% | 20.72% | 21.02% |
| DC United | 14.95% | 17.66% | 19.75% | 22.16% | 25.48% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 33.59% | 24.32% | 18.64% | 14.05% | 9.40% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 23.58% | 22.77% | 21.02% | 18.02% | 14.61% |
| Kansas City Wizards | 19.45% | 21.14% | 21.20% | 20.47% | 17.74% |
| Colorado Rapids | 14.63% | 18.37% | 21.06% | 23.08% | 22.86% |
| Dallas Burn | 8.75% | 13.41% | 18.08% | 24.38% | 35.38% |
Points Required to Clinch Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of points. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median points for that seed.
Edges & Scoring
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Home Edge
- Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away teamNo Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
- Elo Value
- Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
- Scoring Tilt
- Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Fortress
48.00%30.67%21.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
094.94500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Lean Home
-2+0.49+2
Title Race
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Title-Race Openness
- Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
- Champion Preseason Odds
- Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.
- Title Run Odds
- Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.
Title-Race Openness
9.4
Wide Open
124810
Champion Preseason Odds
8%
DC United, 8th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Run Odds
Coin-flip
11.5%
Tough Road
012.50%25%
Simulation-Based Surprises
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Luck Spread
- Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone. Subdued: under 5.33 · As Expected: 5.33 to 7.33 · Elevated: 7.33 to 10 · High Variance: 10 and up.
- Average Finish Error
- Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.Pinpoint: under 2.41 · Close: 2.41 to 3.26 · Off Target: 3.26 to 4.25 · Well Off Target: 4.25 and up.
- Biggest Overachiever
- The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
- Biggest Underachiever
- The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
- Season Outliers
- Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
- Unexpected Playoff Teams
- Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.Fewer Than Expected: under 1.04 · As Expected: 1.04 to 1.74 · More Than Expected: 1.74 to 2.78 · Far More Than Expected: 2.78 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.71 points
As Expected
06.6717
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.40
Off Target
02.836
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
90.99%
Kansas City Wizards
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.11%
Chicago Fire
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
1 of 8
Fewer Than Expected
01.48
Parity
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Gini Index
- Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
- Noll-Scully
- Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
- Interquartile Edge
- The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
- Best vs. Worst
- The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
- Close Games
- Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
- Blowouts
- Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.08
Highly Balanced
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.69
Compressed
01.003
Interquartile Edge
52%
Even
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
59%
Tight
50%58%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Nail-Biters
0%67%100%
Blowouts
Expected
9%
Rare
0%11%100%
Predictability
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Brier Score
- How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
- Matchup Imbalance
- How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
- Strangeness
- How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
- Repeatability
- How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
- Upset Rate
- The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
- Clear Favorite Upset Rate
- The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Lopsided
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.73
Tighter Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.26
Reshuffled
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalk Held
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Favorites Held
0%23%50%
Calibration
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Probability calibration
- An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
- Calibration slope
- Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
- Calibration error (ECE)
- Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.21 · Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.62
Overconfident
01.003.11042
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.056
Within Noise
00.1060.25
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to MLS Cup | Won MLS Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 90.60% | 50.05% | 27.96% | 15.00% |
| Chicago Fire | 86.46% | 44.23% | 23.08% | 12.01% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 85.39% | 43.66% | 22.27% | 11.20% |
| Columbus Crew | 80.62% | 41.37% | 21.14% | 10.84% |
| Kansas City Wizards | 82.26% | 41.88% | 20.95% | 10.35% |
| New England Revolution | 79.43% | 39.35% | 19.42% | 9.82% |
| MetroStars | 78.98% | 38.90% | 19.11% | 9.44% |
| DC United | 74.52% | 36.15% | 17.26% | 8.38% |
| Colorado Rapids | 77.14% | 37.01% | 17.39% | 8.16% |
| Dallas Burn | 64.62% | 27.38% | 11.44% | 4.79% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 49.7%22.01% | 52.3%20.44% | 51.4%21.90% | 51.3%22.12% | |
| Columbus Crew | 50.3%22.01% | 52.2%18.47% | 51.2%20.00% | 51.7%20.14% | |
| DC United | 47.7%20.44% | 47.8%18.47% | 49.6%17.77% | 49.1%17.85% | |
| MetroStars | 48.6%21.90% | 48.8%20.00% | 50.4%17.77% | 49.5%19.32% | |
| New England Revolution | 48.7%22.12% | 48.3%20.14% | 50.9%17.85% | 50.5%19.32% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Dallas Burn | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 55.1%13.04% | 48.0%19.74% | 47.6%21.18% | 44.3%23.17% | |
| Dallas Burn | 44.9%13.04% | 42.8%15.24% | 43.0%17.01% | 39.8%19.33% | |
| Kansas City Wizards | 52.0%19.74% | 57.2%15.24% | 50.1%23.18% | 46.9%24.09% | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 52.4%21.18% | 57.0%17.01% | 49.9%23.18% | 47.1%24.02% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 55.7%23.17% | 60.2%19.33% | 53.1%24.09% | 52.9%24.02% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 50.8%11.98% | 53.5%10.09% | 52.1%10.95% | 52.5%11.21% | |
| Columbus Crew | 49.2%11.98% | 52.2%9.12% | 51.8%10.03% | 51.7%10.24% | |
| DC United | 46.5%10.09% | 47.8%9.12% | 48.0%8.47% | 48.9%8.46% | |
| MetroStars | 47.9%10.95% | 48.2%10.03% | 52.0%8.47% | 48.9%9.44% | |
| New England Revolution | 47.5%11.21% | 48.3%10.24% | 51.1%8.46% | 51.1%9.44% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Dallas Burn | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 54.9%5.64% | 47.4%9.43% | 47.3%9.86% | 42.7%12.08% | |
| Dallas Burn | 45.1%5.64% | 43.2%6.44% | 41.9%6.94% | 38.4%8.36% | |
| Kansas City Wizards | 52.6%9.43% | 56.8%6.44% | 49.5%11.63% | 45.7%14.38% | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 52.7%9.86% | 58.1%6.94% | 50.5%11.63% | 47.0%15.23% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 57.3%12.08% | 61.6%8.36% | 54.3%14.38% | 53.0%15.23% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Dallas Burn | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 54.3%3.93% | 60.3%2.70% | 52.4%4.82% | 50.6%5.14% | 48.1%6.49% | |||||
| Columbus Crew | 52.7%3.57% | 59.8%2.46% | 52.2%4.37% | 50.8%4.80% | 46.6%5.94% | |||||
| DC United | 51.5%3.03% | 55.3%1.94% | 48.3%3.73% | 49.3%3.72% | 43.6%4.84% | |||||
| MetroStars | 52.8%3.39% | 57.7%2.15% | 47.9%3.98% | 48.9%4.31% | 45.5%5.27% | |||||
| New England Revolution | 53.8%3.46% | 56.4%2.19% | 51.4%4.06% | 48.4%4.30% | 47.2%5.41% | |||||
| Colorado Rapids | 45.7%3.93% | 47.3%3.57% | 48.5%3.03% | 47.2%3.39% | 46.2%3.46% | |||||
| Dallas Burn | 39.7%2.70% | 40.2%2.46% | 44.7%1.94% | 42.3%2.15% | 43.6%2.19% | |||||
| Kansas City Wizards | 47.6%4.82% | 47.8%4.37% | 51.7%3.73% | 52.1%3.98% | 48.6%4.06% | |||||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 49.4%5.14% | 49.2%4.80% | 50.7%3.72% | 51.1%4.31% | 51.6%4.30% | |||||
| San Jose Earthquakes | 51.9%6.49% | 53.4%5.94% | 56.4%4.84% | 54.5%5.27% | 52.8%5.41% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.
| Team | Advanced to Conference Finals | Advanced to MLS Cup | Won MLS Cup | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 51.78% | 32.92% | 19.36% | Eliminated in Conference Semifinals |
| Kansas City Wizards | 47.14% | 29.78% | 17.31% | Eliminated in MLS Cup |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 52.50% | 26.06% | 14.24% | Eliminated in Conference Finals |
| DC United | 49.37% | 23.97% | 11.42% | Won MLS Cup |
| Colorado Rapids | 47.50% | 22.74% | 10.70% | Eliminated in Conference Semifinals |
| MetroStars | 50.63% | 24.73% | 10.46% | Eliminated in Conference Semifinals |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 52.86% | 21.42% | 9.58% | Eliminated in Conference Semifinals |
| New England Revolution | 48.22% | 18.38% | 6.93% | Eliminated in Conference Finals |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 51.8%100.00% | |||
| DC United | 49.4%100.00% | |||
| MetroStars | 50.6%100.00% | |||
| New England Revolution | 48.2%100.00% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 47.5%100.00% | |||
| Kansas City Wizards | 47.1%100.00% | |||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 52.5%100.00% | |||
| San Jose Earthquakes | 52.9%100.00% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 63.7%25.47% | 63.4%26.31% | ||
| DC United | 36.3%25.47% | 61.7%23.90% | ||
| MetroStars | 36.6%26.31% | 62.1%24.32% | ||
| New England Revolution | 38.3%23.90% | 37.9%24.32% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 35.6%22.41% | 58.8%25.09% | ||
| Kansas City Wizards | 64.4%22.41% | 62.1%24.73% | ||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 37.9%24.73% | 60.0%27.77% | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | 41.2%25.09% | 40.0%27.77% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Colorado Rapids | Kansas City Wizards | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Jose Earthquakes | Columbus Crew | DC United | MetroStars | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 64.4%7.48% | 50.4%9.78% | 62.5%8.56% | 60.1%7.10% | ||||
| DC United | 62.7%5.46% | 37.6%7.19% | 36.8%6.20% | 58.9%5.12% | ||||
| MetroStars | 38.6%5.52% | 37.4%7.34% | 36.9%6.54% | 59.6%5.33% | ||||
| New England Revolution | 39.1%4.28% | 38.2%5.47% | 37.3%4.76% | 35.9%3.88% | ||||
| Colorado Rapids | 35.6%7.48% | 37.3%5.46% | 61.4%5.52% | 60.9%4.28% | ||||
| Kansas City Wizards | 49.6%9.78% | 62.4%7.19% | 62.6%7.34% | 61.8%5.47% | ||||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 37.5%8.56% | 63.2%6.20% | 63.1%6.54% | 62.7%4.76% | ||||
| San Jose Earthquakes | 39.9%7.10% | 41.1%5.12% | 40.4%5.33% | 64.1%3.88% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Columbus Crew
19.36% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. New England Revolution
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
51.78%
→
Conference Finals
vs. MetroStars
Matchup
50.68%
Win Prob
63.41%
→
MLS Cup
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Matchup
27.65%
Win Prob
62.52%
Kansas City Wizards
17.31% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
47.14%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Matchup
51.53%
Win Prob
62.05%
→
MLS Cup
vs. Columbus Crew
Matchup
28.00%
Win Prob
49.56%
Los Angeles Galaxy
14.24% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Colorado Rapids
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
52.50%
→
Conference Finals
vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Matchup
63.99%
Win Prob
60.05%
→
MLS Cup
vs. MetroStars
Matchup
28.97%
Win Prob
63.10%
DC United
11.42% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. MetroStars
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
49.37%
→
Conference Finals
vs. New England Revolution
Matchup
61.49%
Win Prob
61.65%
→
MLS Cup
vs. Colorado Rapids
Matchup
29.99%
Win Prob
62.71%
Colorado Rapids
10.70% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
47.50%
→
Conference Finals
vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Matchup
64.91%
Win Prob
58.84%
→
MLS Cup
vs. MetroStars
Matchup
31.69%
Win Prob
61.45%
MetroStars
10.46% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. DC United
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
50.63%
→
Conference Finals
vs. New England Revolution
Matchup
61.07%
Win Prob
62.10%
→
MLS Cup
vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Matchup
30.36%
Win Prob
59.56%
San Jose Earthquakes
9.58% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Kansas City Wizards
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
52.86%
→
Conference Finals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Matchup
51.80%
Win Prob
39.95%
→
MLS Cup
vs. Columbus Crew
Matchup
29.59%
Win Prob
39.93%
New England Revolution
6.93% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Columbus Crew
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
48.22%
→
Conference Finals
vs. MetroStars
Matchup
50.14%
Win Prob
37.90%
→
MLS Cup
vs. Kansas City Wizards
Matchup
30.16%
Win Prob
38.20%
Regular Season Games
Summary of every regular-season game played this season.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-04-04 | @ Kansas City Wizards | T 0-0 | 1522.65 | 1496.28 | 25.13% | 31.45% | 43.42% | +0.15 | 1 |
| 2004-04-10 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 0-0 | 1522.80 | 1521.46 | 22.63% | 30.54% | 46.83% | +0.20 | 2 |
| 2004-04-18 | Dallas Burn | L 0-2 | 1523.00 | 1466.76 | 54.33% | 27.66% | 18.01% | -3.55 | 2 |
| 2004-04-24 | @ DC United | W 1-0 | 1519.45 | 1493.35 | 25.10% | 31.44% | 43.46% | +1.60 | 5 |
| 2004-05-02 | MetroStars | W 3-0 | 1521.05 | 1502.54 | 49.46% | 29.66% | 20.87% | +2.50 | 8 |
| 2004-05-09 | @ Kansas City Wizards | T 2-2 | 1523.55 | 1497.84 | 25.06% | 31.43% | 43.51% | +0.10 | 9 |
| 2004-05-16 | @ MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1523.65 | 1500.15 | 24.83% | 31.36% | 43.82% | +0.14 | 10 |
| 2004-05-23 | Columbus Crew | L 1-3 | 1523.79 | 1496.99 | 50.55% | 29.26% | 20.19% | -2.91 | 10 |
| 2004-05-30 | Colorado Rapids | W 1-0 | 1520.88 | 1487.77 | 51.37% | 28.93% | 19.70% | +0.86 | 13 |
| 2004-06-05 | DC United | W 3-0 | 1521.74 | 1491.23 | 51.03% | 29.07% | 19.90% | +2.39 | 16 |
| 2004-06-12 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 2-3 | 1524.13 | 1511.09 | 23.76% | 31.00% | 45.24% | -0.91 | 16 |
| 2004-06-20 | San Jose Earthquakes | T 1-1 | 1523.22 | 1525.61 | 46.68% | 30.59% | 22.73% | -0.18 | 17 |
| 2004-06-28 | Los Angeles Galaxy | L 0-1 | 1523.04 | 1506.27 | 49.23% | 29.75% | 21.02% | -1.75 | 17 |
| 2004-07-04 | @ Columbus Crew | L 0-2 | 1521.29 | 1499.11 | 24.69% | 31.31% | 44.00% | -2.00 | 17 |
| 2004-07-12 | New England Revolution | T 1-1 | 1519.29 | 1494.83 | 50.24% | 29.37% | 20.38% | -0.23 | 18 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ New England Revolution | L 1-3 | 1519.06 | 1495.06 | 24.88% | 31.37% | 43.75% | -1.74 | 18 |
| 2004-07-18 | MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1517.32 | 1498.99 | 49.44% | 29.67% | 20.89% | -0.22 | 19 |
| 2004-07-25 | @ MetroStars | L 1-2 | 1517.10 | 1499.21 | 24.25% | 31.17% | 44.58% | -0.98 | 19 |
| 2004-07-29 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 0-2 | 1516.12 | 1486.01 | 25.53% | 31.56% | 42.91% | -2.05 | 19 |
| 2004-08-12 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-1 | 1514.07 | 1523.65 | 45.71% | 30.87% | 23.42% | +0.95 | 22 |
| 2004-08-15 | Colorado Rapids | L 0-3 | 1515.02 | 1485.41 | 50.91% | 29.11% | 19.97% | -4.91 | 22 |
| 2004-08-22 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1510.11 | 1508.17 | 22.69% | 30.57% | 46.74% | +0.18 | 23 |
| 2004-08-29 | @ Dallas Burn | L 1-4 | 1510.29 | 1465.65 | 27.17% | 31.95% | 40.89% | -2.64 | 23 |
| 2004-09-02 | Kansas City Wizards | W 3-1 | 1507.65 | 1503.25 | 47.59% | 30.30% | 22.10% | +1.57 | 26 |
| 2004-09-05 | DC United | W 3-1 | 1509.22 | 1488.97 | 49.69% | 29.58% | 20.73% | +1.48 | 29 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ DC United | L 1-3 | 1510.70 | 1489.98 | 24.54% | 31.27% | 44.20% | -1.72 | 29 |
| 2004-09-26 | New England Revolution | W 2-0 | 1508.98 | 1500.77 | 48.10% | 30.14% | 21.76% | +1.79 | 32 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ Columbus Crew | T 3-3 | 1510.77 | 1509.06 | 22.67% | 30.56% | 46.78% | +0.12 | 33 |
| 2004-10-07 | Columbus Crew | L 0-1 | 1510.89 | 1508.95 | 47.26% | 30.41% | 22.33% | -1.70 | 33 |
| 2004-10-17 | @ New England Revolution | L 1-2 | 1509.19 | 1499.59 | 23.42% | 30.87% | 45.71% | -0.96 | 33 |
| 2004-04-04 | @ Dallas Burn | T 1-1 | 1487.47 | 1466.91 | 24.52% | 31.26% | 44.22% | +0.15 | 1 |
| 2004-04-18 | Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1487.62 | 1506.52 | 44.45% | 31.20% | 24.35% | -0.15 | 2 |
| 2004-04-25 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 1-0 | 1487.47 | 1523.92 | 42.03% | 31.74% | 26.23% | +1.11 | 5 |
| 2004-05-02 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-2 | 1488.58 | 1496.04 | 21.83% | 30.17% | 48.00% | -1.79 | 5 |
| 2004-05-08 | New England Revolution | T 0-0 | 1486.79 | 1502.27 | 44.91% | 31.08% | 24.00% | -0.18 | 6 |
| 2004-05-16 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1486.61 | 1510.05 | 20.47% | 29.42% | 50.11% | +0.23 | 7 |
| 2004-05-23 | DC United | W 2-1 | 1486.84 | 1490.43 | 46.52% | 30.63% | 22.84% | +0.93 | 10 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ Chicago Fire | L 0-1 | 1487.77 | 1520.88 | 19.70% | 28.93% | 51.37% | -0.86 | 10 |
| 2004-06-10 | Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1486.91 | 1497.56 | 45.57% | 30.91% | 23.52% | -1.65 | 10 |
| 2004-06-13 | @ DC United | T 0-0 | 1485.26 | 1488.84 | 22.18% | 30.34% | 47.48% | +0.21 | 11 |
| 2004-06-20 | Dallas Burn | T 1-1 | 1485.47 | 1469.34 | 49.15% | 29.78% | 21.07% | -0.21 | 12 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ Columbus Crew | W 2-1 | 1485.26 | 1500.75 | 21.13% | 29.81% | 49.07% | +1.64 | 15 |
| 2004-07-01 | @ MetroStars | W 3-2 | 1486.90 | 1501.08 | 21.24% | 29.87% | 48.89% | +1.56 | 18 |
| 2004-07-05 | New England Revolution | W 1-0 | 1488.46 | 1495.84 | 46.01% | 30.78% | 23.20% | +1.01 | 21 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 0-2 | 1489.47 | 1509.00 | 20.79% | 29.61% | 49.60% | -1.72 | 21 |
| 2004-07-15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | T 0-0 | 1487.75 | 1510.72 | 43.89% | 31.34% | 24.77% | -0.16 | 22 |
| 2004-07-17 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 1-3 | 1487.59 | 1520.78 | 19.69% | 28.93% | 51.38% | -1.41 | 22 |
| 2004-07-24 | Columbus Crew | T 0-0 | 1486.18 | 1501.05 | 45.00% | 31.06% | 23.94% | -0.17 | 23 |
| 2004-07-29 | Chicago Fire | W 2-0 | 1486.01 | 1516.12 | 42.91% | 31.56% | 25.53% | +2.05 | 26 |
| 2004-08-08 | @ Dallas Burn | L 0-1 | 1488.06 | 1469.29 | 24.34% | 31.20% | 44.46% | -1.05 | 26 |
| 2004-08-12 | @ DC United | L 1-3 | 1487.01 | 1487.11 | 22.50% | 30.48% | 47.02% | -1.60 | 26 |
| 2004-08-15 | @ Chicago Fire | W 3-0 | 1485.41 | 1515.02 | 19.97% | 29.11% | 50.91% | +4.92 | 29 |
| 2004-08-22 | MetroStars | W 1-0 | 1490.33 | 1502.76 | 45.33% | 30.97% | 23.70% | +1.02 | 32 |
| 2004-08-29 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 0-0 | 1491.35 | 1527.91 | 19.43% | 28.75% | 51.81% | +0.28 | 33 |
| 2004-09-05 | Dallas Burn | W 2-1 | 1491.63 | 1468.29 | 50.10% | 29.43% | 20.47% | +0.85 | 36 |
| 2004-09-11 | Kansas City Wizards | W 3-1 | 1492.48 | 1502.66 | 45.63% | 30.89% | 23.48% | +1.65 | 39 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ New England Revolution | L 1-6 | 1494.13 | 1497.24 | 22.22% | 30.36% | 47.42% | -3.53 | 39 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1490.60 | 1502.07 | 21.48% | 29.99% | 48.53% | -0.94 | 39 |
| 2004-10-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | T 1-1 | 1489.66 | 1525.13 | 42.16% | 31.71% | 26.12% | -0.11 | 40 |
| 2004-10-17 | Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1489.55 | 1510.82 | 44.12% | 31.28% | 24.60% | -0.15 | 41 |
| 2004-04-04 | MetroStars | L 1-3 | 1501.62 | 1499.10 | 47.34% | 30.38% | 22.28% | -2.77 | 0 |
| 2004-04-18 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1498.85 | 1496.13 | 22.76% | 30.60% | 46.64% | -0.99 | 0 |
| 2004-04-25 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 0-2 | 1497.86 | 1506.67 | 21.71% | 30.11% | 48.18% | -1.79 | 0 |
| 2004-05-02 | Dallas Burn | T 0-0 | 1496.07 | 1471.39 | 50.27% | 29.36% | 20.36% | -0.26 | 1 |
| 2004-05-09 | @ DC United | T 1-1 | 1495.81 | 1491.99 | 22.87% | 30.64% | 46.49% | +0.18 | 2 |
| 2004-05-15 | New England Revolution | W 1-0 | 1495.99 | 1502.44 | 46.14% | 30.75% | 23.12% | +1.00 | 5 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ Chicago Fire | W 3-1 | 1496.99 | 1523.79 | 20.19% | 29.26% | 50.55% | +2.92 | 8 |
| 2004-05-30 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 1-0 | 1499.91 | 1525.23 | 43.56% | 31.41% | 25.02% | +1.07 | 11 |
| 2004-06-06 | @ New England Revolution | W 2-1 | 1500.98 | 1501.03 | 22.50% | 30.49% | 47.01% | +1.59 | 14 |
| 2004-06-13 | Kansas City Wizards | T 2-2 | 1502.57 | 1499.22 | 47.45% | 30.35% | 22.20% | -0.14 | 15 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ DC United | L 1-3 | 1502.43 | 1488.63 | 23.84% | 31.02% | 45.14% | -1.68 | 15 |
| 2004-06-27 | Colorado Rapids | L 1-2 | 1500.75 | 1485.26 | 49.07% | 29.81% | 21.13% | -1.64 | 15 |
| 2004-07-04 | Chicago Fire | W 2-0 | 1499.11 | 1521.29 | 44.00% | 31.31% | 24.69% | +1.99 | 18 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ Dallas Burn | T 0-0 | 1501.10 | 1468.61 | 25.79% | 31.63% | 42.58% | +0.14 | 19 |
| 2004-07-18 | New England Revolution | T 1-1 | 1501.24 | 1496.80 | 47.60% | 30.30% | 22.10% | -0.19 | 20 |
| 2004-07-24 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 0-0 | 1501.05 | 1486.18 | 23.94% | 31.06% | 45.00% | +0.17 | 21 |
| 2004-07-29 | Dallas Burn | W 2-1 | 1501.22 | 1470.11 | 51.11% | 29.04% | 19.85% | +0.82 | 24 |
| 2004-08-07 | @ New England Revolution | T 2-2 | 1502.04 | 1497.17 | 22.97% | 30.69% | 46.35% | +0.13 | 25 |
| 2004-08-15 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | T 0-0 | 1502.17 | 1508.39 | 21.94% | 30.22% | 47.83% | +0.22 | 26 |
| 2004-08-19 | Kansas City Wizards | W 2-1 | 1502.39 | 1502.58 | 46.98% | 30.50% | 22.52% | +0.93 | 29 |
| 2004-08-22 | DC United | T 2-2 | 1503.32 | 1488.59 | 48.96% | 29.84% | 21.19% | -0.16 | 30 |
| 2004-08-29 | @ MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1503.16 | 1501.73 | 22.64% | 30.55% | 46.81% | +0.18 | 31 |
| 2004-09-05 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 3-1 | 1503.34 | 1507.99 | 46.38% | 30.68% | 22.94% | +1.63 | 34 |
| 2004-09-09 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | W 1-0 | 1504.97 | 1529.22 | 20.40% | 29.38% | 50.22% | +1.77 | 37 |
| 2004-09-19 | MetroStars | W 4-2 | 1506.74 | 1501.44 | 47.71% | 30.26% | 22.02% | +1.40 | 40 |
| 2004-09-26 | DC United | W 1-0 | 1508.14 | 1491.70 | 49.19% | 29.76% | 21.05% | +0.92 | 43 |
| 2004-10-03 | Chicago Fire | T 3-3 | 1509.06 | 1510.77 | 46.78% | 30.56% | 22.67% | -0.11 | 44 |
| 2004-10-07 | @ Chicago Fire | W 1-0 | 1508.95 | 1510.89 | 22.33% | 30.41% | 47.26% | +1.70 | 47 |
| 2004-10-10 | @ MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1510.65 | 1501.27 | 23.40% | 30.86% | 45.74% | +0.17 | 48 |
| 2004-10-17 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1510.82 | 1489.55 | 24.60% | 31.28% | 44.12% | +0.14 | 49 |
| 2004-04-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-1 | 1492.97 | 1522.48 | 42.99% | 31.54% | 25.47% | +1.02 | 3 |
| 2004-04-11 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1493.99 | 1506.73 | 21.37% | 29.93% | 48.70% | +0.21 | 4 |
| 2004-04-17 | @ MetroStars | L 2-3 | 1494.20 | 1501.88 | 21.81% | 30.16% | 48.03% | -0.85 | 4 |
| 2004-04-24 | Chicago Fire | L 0-1 | 1493.35 | 1519.45 | 43.46% | 31.44% | 25.10% | -1.60 | 4 |
| 2004-05-01 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 1-1 | 1491.75 | 1522.80 | 19.86% | 29.04% | 51.10% | +0.24 | 5 |
| 2004-05-09 | Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1491.99 | 1495.81 | 46.49% | 30.64% | 22.87% | -0.18 | 6 |
| 2004-05-16 | Kansas City Wizards | W 1-0 | 1491.81 | 1497.74 | 46.21% | 30.73% | 23.07% | +1.00 | 9 |
| 2004-05-20 | Los Angeles Galaxy | L 2-4 | 1492.81 | 1509.83 | 44.70% | 31.14% | 24.16% | -2.38 | 9 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 1-2 | 1490.43 | 1486.84 | 22.84% | 30.63% | 46.52% | -0.93 | 9 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ New England Revolution | W 1-0 | 1489.50 | 1501.25 | 21.45% | 29.98% | 48.57% | +1.73 | 12 |
| 2004-06-05 | @ Chicago Fire | L 0-3 | 1491.23 | 1521.74 | 19.90% | 29.07% | 51.03% | -2.39 | 12 |
| 2004-06-13 | Colorado Rapids | T 0-0 | 1488.84 | 1485.26 | 47.48% | 30.34% | 22.18% | -0.21 | 13 |
| 2004-06-20 | Columbus Crew | W 3-1 | 1488.63 | 1502.43 | 45.14% | 31.02% | 23.84% | +1.68 | 16 |
| 2004-06-26 | @ Dallas Burn | T 1-1 | 1490.31 | 1469.56 | 24.54% | 31.27% | 44.19% | +0.14 | 17 |
| 2004-07-03 | MetroStars | W 6-2 | 1490.45 | 1499.53 | 45.78% | 30.85% | 23.37% | +2.56 | 20 |
| 2004-07-11 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1493.01 | 1504.91 | 21.44% | 29.97% | 48.59% | -0.94 | 20 |
| 2004-07-18 | Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1492.07 | 1510.88 | 44.46% | 31.20% | 24.34% | -0.14 | 21 |
| 2004-07-25 | @ Dallas Burn | L 1-5 | 1491.93 | 1466.92 | 24.99% | 31.40% | 43.61% | -3.19 | 21 |
| 2004-08-08 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 0-2 | 1488.74 | 1522.02 | 19.68% | 28.93% | 51.39% | -1.63 | 21 |
| 2004-08-12 | Colorado Rapids | W 3-1 | 1487.11 | 1487.01 | 47.02% | 30.48% | 22.50% | +1.60 | 24 |
| 2004-08-15 | New England Revolution | T 2-2 | 1488.71 | 1501.40 | 45.29% | 30.98% | 23.72% | -0.12 | 25 |
| 2004-08-22 | @ Columbus Crew | T 2-2 | 1488.59 | 1503.32 | 21.19% | 29.84% | 48.96% | +0.15 | 26 |
| 2004-08-28 | @ New England Revolution | T 0-0 | 1488.74 | 1499.93 | 21.50% | 30.00% | 48.50% | +0.23 | 27 |
| 2004-09-05 | @ Chicago Fire | L 1-3 | 1488.97 | 1509.22 | 20.73% | 29.58% | 49.69% | -1.48 | 27 |
| 2004-09-11 | Dallas Burn | W 3-0 | 1487.49 | 1467.45 | 49.66% | 29.59% | 20.75% | +2.49 | 30 |
| 2004-09-19 | Chicago Fire | W 3-1 | 1489.98 | 1510.70 | 44.20% | 31.27% | 24.54% | +1.72 | 33 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ Columbus Crew | L 0-1 | 1491.70 | 1508.14 | 21.05% | 29.76% | 49.19% | -0.92 | 33 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ MetroStars | W 1-0 | 1490.78 | 1503.00 | 21.41% | 29.96% | 48.63% | +1.73 | 36 |
| 2004-10-10 | New England Revolution | W 1-0 | 1492.51 | 1500.60 | 45.92% | 30.81% | 23.27% | +1.01 | 39 |
| 2004-10-17 | MetroStars | W 3-2 | 1493.52 | 1501.10 | 45.98% | 30.79% | 23.22% | +0.90 | 42 |
| 2004-04-04 | Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1466.91 | 1487.47 | 44.22% | 31.26% | 24.52% | -0.15 | 1 |
| 2004-04-18 | @ Chicago Fire | W 2-0 | 1466.76 | 1523.00 | 18.01% | 27.66% | 54.33% | +3.55 | 4 |
| 2004-04-25 | Kansas City Wizards | W 1-0 | 1470.31 | 1497.12 | 43.36% | 31.46% | 25.18% | +1.08 | 7 |
| 2004-05-02 | @ Columbus Crew | T 0-0 | 1471.39 | 1496.07 | 20.36% | 29.36% | 50.27% | +0.25 | 8 |
| 2004-05-08 | Los Angeles Galaxy | L 1-3 | 1471.64 | 1507.51 | 42.11% | 31.72% | 26.17% | -2.55 | 8 |
| 2004-05-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | L 1-2 | 1469.09 | 1522.45 | 39.66% | 32.13% | 28.21% | -1.41 | 8 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-2 | 1467.68 | 1496.74 | 20.01% | 29.14% | 50.84% | -1.65 | 8 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 1-4 | 1466.03 | 1510.84 | 18.82% | 28.31% | 52.88% | -1.91 | 8 |
| 2004-06-06 | @ MetroStars | W 2-0 | 1464.12 | 1501.17 | 19.39% | 28.73% | 51.88% | +3.43 | 11 |
| 2004-06-13 | New England Revolution | W 3-1 | 1467.55 | 1499.43 | 42.66% | 31.61% | 25.73% | +1.79 | 14 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1469.34 | 1485.47 | 21.07% | 29.78% | 49.15% | +0.22 | 15 |
| 2004-06-26 | DC United | T 1-1 | 1469.56 | 1490.31 | 44.19% | 31.27% | 24.54% | -0.15 | 16 |
| 2004-07-04 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 1-5 | 1469.41 | 1502.34 | 19.71% | 28.94% | 51.35% | -2.58 | 16 |
| 2004-07-08 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-1 | 1466.83 | 1524.58 | 17.91% | 27.57% | 54.52% | +1.78 | 19 |
| 2004-07-11 | Columbus Crew | T 0-0 | 1468.61 | 1501.10 | 42.58% | 31.63% | 25.79% | -0.14 | 20 |
| 2004-07-18 | Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1468.47 | 1505.85 | 41.90% | 31.77% | 26.34% | -1.55 | 20 |
| 2004-07-25 | DC United | W 5-1 | 1466.92 | 1491.93 | 43.61% | 31.40% | 24.99% | +3.19 | 23 |
| 2004-07-29 | @ Columbus Crew | L 1-2 | 1470.11 | 1501.22 | 19.85% | 29.04% | 51.11% | -0.82 | 23 |
| 2004-08-08 | Colorado Rapids | W 1-0 | 1469.29 | 1488.06 | 44.46% | 31.20% | 24.34% | +1.05 | 26 |
| 2004-08-12 | New England Revolution | L 0-3 | 1470.34 | 1497.03 | 43.38% | 31.46% | 25.17% | -4.37 | 26 |
| 2004-08-15 | @ MetroStars | W 1-0 | 1465.97 | 1504.58 | 19.28% | 28.64% | 52.08% | +1.83 | 29 |
| 2004-08-22 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 0-3 | 1467.80 | 1525.76 | 17.89% | 27.56% | 54.55% | -2.15 | 29 |
| 2004-08-29 | Chicago Fire | W 4-1 | 1465.65 | 1510.29 | 40.89% | 31.95% | 27.17% | +2.64 | 32 |
| 2004-09-05 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 1-2 | 1468.29 | 1491.63 | 20.47% | 29.43% | 50.10% | -0.84 | 32 |
| 2004-09-11 | @ DC United | L 0-3 | 1467.45 | 1487.49 | 20.75% | 29.59% | 49.66% | -2.49 | 32 |
| 2004-09-19 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 2-0 | 1464.96 | 1507.36 | 41.20% | 31.89% | 26.91% | +2.14 | 35 |
| 2004-09-26 | MetroStars | L 0-2 | 1467.10 | 1500.04 | 42.51% | 31.64% | 25.84% | -2.97 | 35 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ New England Revolution | L 0-2 | 1464.13 | 1498.98 | 19.56% | 28.84% | 51.59% | -1.61 | 35 |
| 2004-10-10 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 0-2 | 1462.52 | 1505.27 | 18.97% | 28.42% | 52.61% | -1.57 | 35 |
| 2004-10-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | T 2-2 | 1460.95 | 1524.99 | 38.15% | 32.31% | 29.54% | -0.05 | 36 |
| 2004-04-04 | Chicago Fire | T 0-0 | 1496.28 | 1522.65 | 43.42% | 31.45% | 25.13% | -0.15 | 1 |
| 2004-04-18 | Columbus Crew | W 1-0 | 1496.13 | 1498.85 | 46.64% | 30.60% | 22.76% | +0.99 | 4 |
| 2004-04-25 | @ Dallas Burn | L 0-1 | 1497.12 | 1470.31 | 25.18% | 31.46% | 43.36% | -1.08 | 4 |
| 2004-05-02 | Colorado Rapids | W 2-0 | 1496.04 | 1488.58 | 48.00% | 30.17% | 21.83% | +1.80 | 7 |
| 2004-05-09 | Chicago Fire | T 2-2 | 1497.84 | 1523.55 | 43.51% | 31.43% | 25.06% | -0.10 | 8 |
| 2004-05-16 | @ DC United | L 0-1 | 1497.74 | 1491.81 | 23.07% | 30.73% | 46.21% | -1.00 | 8 |
| 2004-05-23 | Dallas Burn | W 2-0 | 1496.74 | 1467.68 | 50.84% | 29.14% | 20.01% | +1.65 | 11 |
| 2004-05-31 | @ MetroStars | L 0-1 | 1498.39 | 1500.20 | 22.34% | 30.41% | 47.25% | -0.97 | 11 |
| 2004-06-03 | New England Revolution | L 2-3 | 1497.42 | 1499.52 | 46.72% | 30.57% | 22.70% | -1.51 | 11 |
| 2004-06-06 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | W 2-1 | 1495.91 | 1512.74 | 21.02% | 29.74% | 49.24% | +1.65 | 14 |
| 2004-06-10 | @ Colorado Rapids | W 1-0 | 1497.56 | 1486.91 | 23.52% | 30.91% | 45.57% | +1.66 | 17 |
| 2004-06-13 | @ Columbus Crew | T 2-2 | 1499.22 | 1502.57 | 22.20% | 30.35% | 47.45% | +0.14 | 18 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ New England Revolution | W 3-1 | 1499.36 | 1497.64 | 22.67% | 30.56% | 46.77% | +2.75 | 21 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 1-1 | 1502.11 | 1525.79 | 20.45% | 29.41% | 50.14% | +0.23 | 22 |
| 2004-07-04 | Dallas Burn | W 5-1 | 1502.34 | 1469.41 | 51.35% | 28.94% | 19.71% | +2.57 | 25 |
| 2004-07-11 | DC United | W 1-0 | 1504.91 | 1493.01 | 48.59% | 29.97% | 21.44% | +0.94 | 28 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Dallas Burn | W 1-0 | 1505.85 | 1468.47 | 26.34% | 31.77% | 41.90% | +1.56 | 31 |
| 2004-07-25 | Los Angeles Galaxy | T 2-2 | 1507.41 | 1511.03 | 46.52% | 30.64% | 22.85% | -0.14 | 32 |
| 2004-07-29 | MetroStars | L 1-2 | 1507.27 | 1500.19 | 47.95% | 30.19% | 21.86% | -1.61 | 32 |
| 2004-08-14 | San Jose Earthquakes | L 0-2 | 1505.66 | 1522.69 | 44.70% | 31.14% | 24.16% | -3.08 | 32 |
| 2004-08-19 | @ Columbus Crew | L 1-2 | 1502.58 | 1502.39 | 22.52% | 30.50% | 46.98% | -0.92 | 32 |
| 2004-08-22 | @ New England Revolution | W 2-1 | 1501.66 | 1501.52 | 22.52% | 30.49% | 46.99% | +1.59 | 35 |
| 2004-09-02 | @ Chicago Fire | L 1-3 | 1503.25 | 1507.65 | 22.10% | 30.30% | 47.59% | -1.57 | 35 |
| 2004-09-05 | MetroStars | W 1-0 | 1501.68 | 1501.55 | 47.02% | 30.48% | 22.50% | +0.98 | 38 |
| 2004-09-11 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 1-3 | 1502.66 | 1492.48 | 23.48% | 30.89% | 45.63% | -1.66 | 38 |
| 2004-09-19 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 1-0 | 1501.00 | 1526.45 | 43.55% | 31.42% | 25.03% | +1.07 | 41 |
| 2004-09-26 | Colorado Rapids | W 1-0 | 1502.07 | 1490.60 | 48.53% | 29.99% | 21.48% | +0.94 | 44 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | T 1-1 | 1503.01 | 1505.46 | 22.28% | 30.39% | 47.33% | +0.19 | 45 |
| 2004-10-10 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 0-0 | 1503.20 | 1525.25 | 20.58% | 29.49% | 49.93% | +0.25 | 46 |
| 2004-10-17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 1-0 | 1503.45 | 1506.84 | 46.55% | 30.63% | 22.82% | +0.99 | 49 |
| 2004-04-04 | New England Revolution | W 3-2 | 1505.85 | 1504.66 | 47.16% | 30.44% | 22.40% | +0.88 | 3 |
| 2004-04-11 | DC United | T 1-1 | 1506.73 | 1493.99 | 48.70% | 29.93% | 21.37% | -0.21 | 4 |
| 2004-04-18 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1506.52 | 1487.62 | 24.35% | 31.20% | 44.45% | +0.15 | 5 |
| 2004-04-25 | Columbus Crew | W 2-0 | 1506.67 | 1497.86 | 48.18% | 30.11% | 21.71% | +1.78 | 8 |
| 2004-05-02 | @ New England Revolution | L 1-2 | 1508.45 | 1501.32 | 23.18% | 30.77% | 46.04% | -0.94 | 8 |
| 2004-05-08 | @ Dallas Burn | W 3-1 | 1507.51 | 1471.64 | 26.17% | 31.72% | 42.11% | +2.54 | 11 |
| 2004-05-16 | Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1510.05 | 1486.61 | 50.11% | 29.42% | 20.47% | -0.22 | 12 |
| 2004-05-20 | @ DC United | W 4-2 | 1509.83 | 1492.81 | 24.16% | 31.14% | 44.70% | +2.38 | 15 |
| 2004-05-23 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 2-4 | 1512.21 | 1523.86 | 21.46% | 29.98% | 48.56% | -1.37 | 15 |
| 2004-05-30 | Dallas Burn | W 4-1 | 1510.84 | 1466.03 | 52.88% | 28.31% | 18.82% | +1.90 | 18 |
| 2004-06-06 | Kansas City Wizards | L 1-2 | 1512.74 | 1495.91 | 49.24% | 29.74% | 21.02% | -1.65 | 18 |
| 2004-06-12 | Chicago Fire | W 3-2 | 1511.09 | 1524.13 | 45.24% | 31.00% | 23.76% | +0.92 | 21 |
| 2004-06-19 | @ MetroStars | L 1-2 | 1512.01 | 1496.29 | 24.03% | 31.09% | 44.88% | -0.98 | 21 |
| 2004-06-24 | MetroStars | L 0-3 | 1511.03 | 1497.27 | 48.84% | 29.89% | 21.28% | -4.76 | 21 |
| 2004-06-28 | @ Chicago Fire | W 1-0 | 1506.27 | 1523.04 | 21.02% | 29.75% | 49.23% | +1.75 | 24 |
| 2004-07-05 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-1 | 1508.02 | 1525.56 | 44.63% | 31.16% | 24.21% | +0.98 | 27 |
| 2004-07-11 | Colorado Rapids | W 2-0 | 1509.00 | 1489.47 | 49.60% | 29.61% | 20.79% | +1.72 | 30 |
| 2004-07-15 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 0-0 | 1510.72 | 1487.75 | 24.77% | 31.34% | 43.89% | +0.16 | 31 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ DC United | T 1-1 | 1510.88 | 1492.07 | 24.34% | 31.20% | 44.46% | +0.15 | 32 |
| 2004-07-25 | @ Kansas City Wizards | T 2-2 | 1511.03 | 1507.41 | 22.85% | 30.64% | 46.52% | +0.13 | 33 |
| 2004-08-08 | @ MetroStars | L 0-3 | 1511.16 | 1501.81 | 23.40% | 30.86% | 45.74% | -2.77 | 33 |
| 2004-08-15 | Columbus Crew | T 0-0 | 1508.39 | 1502.17 | 47.83% | 30.22% | 21.94% | -0.22 | 34 |
| 2004-08-22 | Chicago Fire | T 1-1 | 1508.17 | 1510.11 | 46.74% | 30.57% | 22.69% | -0.18 | 35 |
| 2004-09-05 | @ Columbus Crew | L 1-3 | 1507.99 | 1503.34 | 22.94% | 30.68% | 46.38% | -1.63 | 35 |
| 2004-09-12 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-1 | 1506.36 | 1527.44 | 44.15% | 31.28% | 24.58% | +1.00 | 38 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Dallas Burn | L 0-2 | 1507.36 | 1464.96 | 26.91% | 31.89% | 41.20% | -2.14 | 38 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 0-0 | 1505.22 | 1525.37 | 20.74% | 29.58% | 49.68% | +0.24 | 39 |
| 2004-10-03 | Kansas City Wizards | T 1-1 | 1505.46 | 1503.01 | 47.33% | 30.39% | 22.28% | -0.19 | 40 |
| 2004-10-10 | Dallas Burn | W 2-0 | 1505.27 | 1462.52 | 52.61% | 28.42% | 18.97% | +1.57 | 43 |
| 2004-10-17 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1506.84 | 1503.45 | 22.82% | 30.63% | 46.55% | -0.99 | 43 |
| 2004-04-04 | @ Columbus Crew | W 3-1 | 1499.10 | 1501.62 | 22.28% | 30.38% | 47.34% | +2.78 | 3 |
| 2004-04-17 | DC United | W 3-2 | 1501.88 | 1494.20 | 48.03% | 30.16% | 21.81% | +0.85 | 6 |
| 2004-04-25 | New England Revolution | T 1-1 | 1502.73 | 1501.13 | 47.22% | 30.42% | 22.36% | -0.19 | 7 |
| 2004-05-02 | @ Chicago Fire | L 0-3 | 1502.54 | 1521.05 | 20.87% | 29.66% | 49.46% | -2.50 | 7 |
| 2004-05-09 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 5-5 | 1500.04 | 1522.56 | 20.54% | 29.47% | 49.99% | +0.11 | 8 |
| 2004-05-16 | Chicago Fire | T 1-1 | 1500.15 | 1523.65 | 43.82% | 31.36% | 24.83% | -0.14 | 9 |
| 2004-05-22 | @ New England Revolution | T 1-1 | 1500.01 | 1501.44 | 22.37% | 30.43% | 47.20% | +0.19 | 10 |
| 2004-05-31 | Kansas City Wizards | W 1-0 | 1500.20 | 1498.39 | 47.25% | 30.41% | 22.34% | +0.97 | 13 |
| 2004-06-06 | Dallas Burn | L 0-2 | 1501.17 | 1464.12 | 51.88% | 28.73% | 19.39% | -3.43 | 13 |
| 2004-06-13 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 1-3 | 1497.74 | 1524.16 | 20.22% | 29.28% | 50.50% | -1.45 | 13 |
| 2004-06-19 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 2-1 | 1496.29 | 1512.01 | 44.88% | 31.09% | 24.03% | +0.98 | 16 |
| 2004-06-24 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | W 3-0 | 1497.27 | 1511.03 | 21.28% | 29.89% | 48.84% | +4.76 | 19 |
| 2004-06-27 | @ New England Revolution | L 1-2 | 1502.03 | 1494.89 | 23.18% | 30.77% | 46.04% | -0.95 | 19 |
| 2004-07-01 | Colorado Rapids | L 2-3 | 1501.08 | 1486.90 | 48.89% | 29.87% | 21.24% | -1.55 | 19 |
| 2004-07-03 | @ DC United | L 2-6 | 1499.53 | 1490.45 | 23.37% | 30.85% | 45.78% | -2.56 | 19 |
| 2004-07-10 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 2-0 | 1496.97 | 1522.80 | 43.49% | 31.43% | 25.07% | +2.02 | 22 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Chicago Fire | T 1-1 | 1498.99 | 1517.32 | 20.89% | 29.67% | 49.44% | +0.22 | 23 |
| 2004-07-25 | Chicago Fire | W 2-1 | 1499.21 | 1517.10 | 44.58% | 31.17% | 24.25% | +0.98 | 26 |
| 2004-07-29 | @ Kansas City Wizards | W 2-1 | 1500.19 | 1507.27 | 21.86% | 30.19% | 47.95% | +1.62 | 29 |
| 2004-08-08 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 3-0 | 1501.81 | 1511.16 | 45.74% | 30.86% | 23.40% | +2.77 | 32 |
| 2004-08-15 | Dallas Burn | L 0-1 | 1504.58 | 1465.97 | 52.08% | 28.64% | 19.28% | -1.82 | 32 |
| 2004-08-22 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 0-1 | 1502.76 | 1490.33 | 23.70% | 30.97% | 45.33% | -1.03 | 32 |
| 2004-08-29 | Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1501.73 | 1503.16 | 46.81% | 30.55% | 22.64% | -0.18 | 33 |
| 2004-09-05 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1501.55 | 1501.68 | 22.50% | 30.48% | 47.02% | -0.98 | 33 |
| 2004-09-12 | New England Revolution | W 3-2 | 1500.57 | 1498.11 | 47.34% | 30.39% | 22.28% | +0.87 | 36 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Columbus Crew | L 2-4 | 1501.44 | 1506.74 | 22.02% | 30.26% | 47.71% | -1.40 | 36 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ Dallas Burn | W 2-0 | 1500.04 | 1467.10 | 25.84% | 31.64% | 42.51% | +2.96 | 39 |
| 2004-10-03 | DC United | L 0-1 | 1503.00 | 1490.78 | 48.63% | 29.96% | 21.41% | -1.73 | 39 |
| 2004-10-10 | Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1501.27 | 1510.65 | 45.74% | 30.86% | 23.40% | -0.17 | 40 |
| 2004-10-17 | @ DC United | L 2-3 | 1501.10 | 1493.52 | 23.22% | 30.79% | 45.98% | -0.90 | 40 |
| 2004-04-04 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 2-3 | 1504.66 | 1505.85 | 22.40% | 30.44% | 47.16% | -0.87 | 0 |
| 2004-04-18 | San Jose Earthquakes | L 1-3 | 1503.79 | 1521.26 | 44.64% | 31.15% | 24.20% | -2.66 | 0 |
| 2004-04-25 | @ MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1501.13 | 1502.73 | 22.36% | 30.42% | 47.22% | +0.19 | 1 |
| 2004-05-02 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 2-1 | 1501.32 | 1508.45 | 46.04% | 30.77% | 23.18% | +0.95 | 4 |
| 2004-05-08 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 0-0 | 1502.27 | 1486.79 | 24.00% | 31.08% | 44.91% | +0.17 | 5 |
| 2004-05-15 | @ Columbus Crew | L 0-1 | 1502.44 | 1495.99 | 23.12% | 30.75% | 46.14% | -1.00 | 5 |
| 2004-05-22 | MetroStars | T 1-1 | 1501.44 | 1500.01 | 47.20% | 30.43% | 22.37% | -0.19 | 6 |
| 2004-05-30 | DC United | L 0-1 | 1501.25 | 1489.50 | 48.57% | 29.98% | 21.45% | -1.73 | 6 |
| 2004-06-03 | @ Kansas City Wizards | W 3-2 | 1499.52 | 1497.42 | 22.70% | 30.57% | 46.72% | +1.51 | 9 |
| 2004-06-06 | Columbus Crew | L 1-2 | 1501.03 | 1500.98 | 47.01% | 30.49% | 22.50% | -1.60 | 9 |
| 2004-06-13 | @ Dallas Burn | L 1-3 | 1499.43 | 1467.55 | 25.73% | 31.61% | 42.66% | -1.79 | 9 |
| 2004-06-20 | Kansas City Wizards | L 1-3 | 1497.64 | 1499.36 | 46.77% | 30.56% | 22.67% | -2.75 | 9 |
| 2004-06-27 | MetroStars | W 2-1 | 1494.89 | 1502.03 | 46.04% | 30.77% | 23.18% | +0.95 | 12 |
| 2004-07-05 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 0-1 | 1495.84 | 1488.46 | 23.20% | 30.78% | 46.01% | -1.01 | 12 |
| 2004-07-12 | @ Chicago Fire | T 1-1 | 1494.83 | 1519.29 | 20.38% | 29.37% | 50.24% | +0.23 | 13 |
| 2004-07-15 | Chicago Fire | W 3-1 | 1495.06 | 1519.06 | 43.75% | 31.37% | 24.88% | +1.74 | 16 |
| 2004-07-18 | @ Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1496.80 | 1501.24 | 22.10% | 30.30% | 47.60% | +0.19 | 17 |
| 2004-07-25 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | T 2-2 | 1496.99 | 1522.19 | 20.32% | 29.34% | 50.34% | +0.18 | 18 |
| 2004-08-07 | Columbus Crew | T 2-2 | 1497.17 | 1502.04 | 46.35% | 30.69% | 22.97% | -0.14 | 19 |
| 2004-08-12 | @ Dallas Burn | W 3-0 | 1497.03 | 1470.34 | 25.17% | 31.46% | 43.38% | +4.37 | 22 |
| 2004-08-15 | @ DC United | T 2-2 | 1501.40 | 1488.71 | 23.72% | 30.98% | 45.29% | +0.12 | 23 |
| 2004-08-22 | Kansas City Wizards | L 1-2 | 1501.52 | 1501.66 | 46.99% | 30.49% | 22.52% | -1.59 | 23 |
| 2004-08-28 | DC United | T 0-0 | 1499.93 | 1488.74 | 48.50% | 30.00% | 21.50% | -0.23 | 24 |
| 2004-09-04 | San Jose Earthquakes | L 0-1 | 1499.70 | 1527.63 | 43.21% | 31.50% | 25.30% | -1.59 | 24 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ MetroStars | L 2-3 | 1498.11 | 1500.57 | 22.28% | 30.39% | 47.34% | -0.87 | 24 |
| 2004-09-19 | Colorado Rapids | W 6-1 | 1497.24 | 1494.13 | 47.42% | 30.36% | 22.22% | +3.53 | 27 |
| 2004-09-26 | @ Chicago Fire | L 0-2 | 1500.77 | 1508.98 | 21.76% | 30.14% | 48.10% | -1.79 | 27 |
| 2004-10-03 | Dallas Burn | W 2-0 | 1498.98 | 1464.13 | 51.59% | 28.84% | 19.56% | +1.62 | 30 |
| 2004-10-10 | @ DC United | L 0-1 | 1500.60 | 1492.51 | 23.27% | 30.81% | 45.92% | -1.01 | 30 |
| 2004-10-17 | Chicago Fire | W 2-1 | 1499.59 | 1509.19 | 45.71% | 30.87% | 23.42% | +0.96 | 33 |
| 2004-04-03 | @ DC United | L 1-2 | 1522.48 | 1492.97 | 25.47% | 31.54% | 42.99% | -1.02 | 0 |
| 2004-04-10 | Chicago Fire | T 0-0 | 1521.46 | 1522.80 | 46.83% | 30.54% | 22.63% | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2004-04-18 | @ New England Revolution | W 3-1 | 1521.26 | 1503.79 | 24.20% | 31.15% | 44.64% | +2.66 | 4 |
| 2004-04-25 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 0-1 | 1523.92 | 1487.47 | 26.23% | 31.74% | 42.03% | -1.12 | 4 |
| 2004-05-01 | DC United | T 1-1 | 1522.80 | 1491.75 | 51.10% | 29.04% | 19.86% | -0.24 | 5 |
| 2004-05-09 | MetroStars | T 5-5 | 1522.56 | 1500.04 | 49.99% | 29.47% | 20.54% | -0.11 | 6 |
| 2004-05-16 | @ Dallas Burn | W 2-1 | 1522.45 | 1469.09 | 28.21% | 32.13% | 39.66% | +1.41 | 9 |
| 2004-05-23 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 4-2 | 1523.86 | 1512.21 | 48.56% | 29.98% | 21.46% | +1.37 | 12 |
| 2004-05-30 | @ Columbus Crew | L 0-1 | 1525.23 | 1499.91 | 25.02% | 31.41% | 43.56% | -1.07 | 12 |
| 2004-06-13 | MetroStars | W 3-1 | 1524.16 | 1497.74 | 50.50% | 29.28% | 20.22% | +1.45 | 15 |
| 2004-06-20 | @ Chicago Fire | T 1-1 | 1525.61 | 1523.22 | 22.73% | 30.59% | 46.68% | +0.18 | 16 |
| 2004-06-27 | Kansas City Wizards | T 1-1 | 1525.79 | 1502.11 | 50.14% | 29.41% | 20.45% | -0.23 | 17 |
| 2004-07-05 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 1-2 | 1525.56 | 1508.02 | 24.21% | 31.16% | 44.63% | -0.98 | 17 |
| 2004-07-08 | Dallas Burn | L 1-2 | 1524.58 | 1466.83 | 54.52% | 27.57% | 17.91% | -1.78 | 17 |
| 2004-07-10 | @ MetroStars | L 0-2 | 1522.80 | 1496.97 | 25.07% | 31.43% | 43.49% | -2.02 | 17 |
| 2004-07-17 | Colorado Rapids | W 3-1 | 1520.78 | 1487.59 | 51.38% | 28.93% | 19.69% | +1.41 | 20 |
| 2004-07-25 | New England Revolution | T 2-2 | 1522.19 | 1496.99 | 50.34% | 29.34% | 20.32% | -0.17 | 21 |
| 2004-08-08 | DC United | W 2-0 | 1522.02 | 1488.74 | 51.39% | 28.93% | 19.68% | +1.63 | 24 |
| 2004-08-12 | @ Chicago Fire | L 1-2 | 1523.65 | 1514.07 | 23.42% | 30.87% | 45.71% | -0.96 | 24 |
| 2004-08-14 | @ Kansas City Wizards | W 2-0 | 1522.69 | 1505.66 | 24.16% | 31.14% | 44.70% | +3.07 | 27 |
| 2004-08-22 | Dallas Burn | W 3-0 | 1525.76 | 1467.80 | 54.55% | 27.56% | 17.89% | +2.15 | 30 |
| 2004-08-29 | Colorado Rapids | T 0-0 | 1527.91 | 1491.35 | 51.81% | 28.75% | 19.43% | -0.28 | 31 |
| 2004-09-04 | @ New England Revolution | W 1-0 | 1527.63 | 1499.70 | 25.30% | 31.50% | 43.21% | +1.59 | 34 |
| 2004-09-09 | Columbus Crew | L 0-1 | 1529.22 | 1504.97 | 50.22% | 29.38% | 20.40% | -1.78 | 34 |
| 2004-09-12 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 1-2 | 1527.44 | 1506.36 | 24.58% | 31.28% | 44.15% | -0.99 | 34 |
| 2004-09-19 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-1 | 1526.45 | 1501.00 | 25.03% | 31.42% | 43.55% | -1.08 | 34 |
| 2004-09-26 | Los Angeles Galaxy | T 0-0 | 1525.37 | 1505.22 | 49.68% | 29.58% | 20.74% | -0.24 | 35 |
| 2004-10-03 | @ Colorado Rapids | T 1-1 | 1525.13 | 1489.66 | 26.12% | 31.71% | 42.16% | +0.12 | 36 |
| 2004-10-10 | Kansas City Wizards | T 0-0 | 1525.25 | 1503.20 | 49.93% | 29.49% | 20.58% | -0.26 | 37 |
| 2004-10-17 | @ Dallas Burn | T 2-2 | 1524.99 | 1460.95 | 29.54% | 32.31% | 38.15% | +0.05 | 38 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-10-23 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 1-0 | 1489.40 | 1505.85 | 61.11% | 0.00% | 38.89% | +1.04 | 1-0 |
| 2004-10-31 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | L 0-2 | 1490.44 | 1504.81 | 34.77% | 0.00% | 65.23% | -1.75 | 1-1 |
| 2004-10-24 | @ New England Revolution | L 0-1 | 1510.96 | 1500.55 | 38.07% | 0.00% | 61.93% | -1.02 | 0-1 |
| 2004-10-31 | New England Revolution | T 1-1 | 1509.94 | 1501.57 | 64.45% | 0.00% | 35.55% | -0.19 | 0-1 |
| 2004-10-24 | @ MetroStars | W 2-0 | 1494.42 | 1500.20 | 35.90% | 0.00% | 64.10% | +3.23 | 1-0 |
| 2004-10-31 | MetroStars | W 2-0 | 1497.65 | 1496.97 | 63.42% | 0.00% | 36.58% | +1.84 | 2-0 |
| 2004-11-06 | New England Revolution | T 3-3 | 1499.49 | 1501.76 | 63.03% | 0.00% | 36.97% | -0.11 | 2-0 |
| 2004-11-14 | @ Kansas City Wizards | W 3-2 | 1499.38 | 1507.50 | 35.59% | 0.00% | 64.41% | +1.54 | 3-0 |
| 2004-10-24 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | L 0-2 | 1504.44 | 1525.04 | 33.96% | 0.00% | 66.04% | -1.71 | 0-1 |
| 2004-10-31 | San Jose Earthquakes | W 3-0 | 1502.73 | 1526.75 | 60.07% | 0.00% | 39.93% | +2.92 | 1-1 |
| 2004-11-05 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W 2-0 | 1505.65 | 1506.56 | 63.21% | 0.00% | 36.79% | +1.85 | 2-1 |
| 2004-11-14 | DC United | L 2-3 | 1507.50 | 1499.38 | 64.41% | 0.00% | 35.59% | -1.54 | 2-2 |
| 2004-10-23 | @ Colorado Rapids | L 0-1 | 1505.85 | 1489.40 | 38.89% | 0.00% | 61.11% | -1.04 | 0-1 |
| 2004-10-31 | Colorado Rapids | W 2-0 | 1504.81 | 1490.44 | 65.23% | 0.00% | 34.77% | +1.75 | 1-1 |
| 2004-11-05 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-2 | 1506.56 | 1505.65 | 36.79% | 0.00% | 63.21% | -1.85 | 1-2 |
| 2004-10-24 | DC United | L 0-2 | 1500.20 | 1494.42 | 64.10% | 0.00% | 35.90% | -3.23 | 0-1 |
| 2004-10-31 | @ DC United | L 0-2 | 1496.97 | 1497.65 | 36.58% | 0.00% | 63.42% | -1.84 | 0-2 |
| 2004-10-24 | Columbus Crew | W 1-0 | 1500.55 | 1510.96 | 61.93% | 0.00% | 38.07% | +1.02 | 1-0 |
| 2004-10-31 | @ Columbus Crew | T 1-1 | 1501.57 | 1509.94 | 35.55% | 0.00% | 64.45% | +0.19 | 1-0 |
| 2004-11-06 | @ DC United | T 3-3 | 1501.76 | 1499.49 | 36.97% | 0.00% | 63.03% | +0.12 | 1-0 |
| 2004-10-24 | Kansas City Wizards | W 2-0 | 1525.04 | 1504.44 | 66.04% | 0.00% | 33.96% | +1.71 | 1-0 |
| 2004-10-31 | @ Kansas City Wizards | L 0-3 | 1526.75 | 1502.73 | 39.93% | 0.00% | 60.07% | -2.92 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2004-07-08 | 17.91% | Dallas Burn | 1466.83 | 2 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | 1524.58 | 1 |
| 2 | 2004-04-18 | 18.01% | Dallas Burn | 1466.76 | 2 | @ Chicago Fire | 1523.00 | 0 |
| 3 | 2004-08-15 | 19.28% | Dallas Burn | 1465.97 | 1 | @ MetroStars | 1504.58 | 0 |
| 4 | 2004-06-06 | 19.39% | Dallas Burn | 1464.12 | 2 | @ MetroStars | 1501.17 | 0 |
| 5 | 2004-08-15 | 19.97% | Colorado Rapids | 1485.41 | 3 | @ Chicago Fire | 1515.02 | 0 |
| 6 | 2004-05-23 | 20.19% | Columbus Crew | 1496.99 | 3 | @ Chicago Fire | 1523.79 | 1 |
| 7 | 2004-09-09 | 20.40% | Columbus Crew | 1504.97 | 1 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | 1529.22 | 0 |
| 8 | 2004-06-06 | 21.02% | Kansas City Wizards | 1495.91 | 2 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | 1512.74 | 1 |
| 9 | 2004-06-28 | 21.02% | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1506.27 | 1 | @ Chicago Fire | 1523.04 | 0 |
| 10 | 2004-06-27 | 21.13% | Colorado Rapids | 1485.26 | 2 | @ Columbus Crew | 1500.75 | 1 |
| 11 | 2004-07-01 | 21.24% | Colorado Rapids | 1486.90 | 3 | @ MetroStars | 1501.08 | 2 |
| 12 | 2004-06-24 | 21.28% | MetroStars | 1497.27 | 3 | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | 1511.03 | 0 |
| 13 | 2004-10-03 | 21.41% | DC United | 1490.78 | 1 | @ MetroStars | 1503.00 | 0 |
| 14 | 2004-05-30 | 21.45% | DC United | 1489.50 | 1 | @ New England Revolution | 1501.25 | 0 |
| 15 | 2004-07-29 | 21.86% | MetroStars | 1500.19 | 2 | @ Kansas City Wizards | 1507.27 | 1 |
| 16 | 2004-04-04 | 22.28% | MetroStars | 1499.10 | 3 | @ Columbus Crew | 1501.62 | 1 |
| 17 | 2004-10-07 | 22.33% | Columbus Crew | 1508.95 | 1 | @ Chicago Fire | 1510.89 | 0 |
| 18 | 2004-06-06 | 22.50% | Columbus Crew | 1500.98 | 2 | @ New England Revolution | 1501.03 | 1 |
| 19 | 2004-08-22 | 22.52% | Kansas City Wizards | 1501.66 | 2 | @ New England Revolution | 1501.52 | 1 |
| 20 | 2004-06-20 | 22.67% | Kansas City Wizards | 1499.36 | 3 | @ New England Revolution | 1497.64 | 1 |
| 21 | 2004-06-03 | 22.70% | New England Revolution | 1499.52 | 3 | @ Kansas City Wizards | 1497.42 | 2 |
| 22 | 2004-06-10 | 23.52% | Kansas City Wizards | 1497.56 | 1 | @ Colorado Rapids | 1486.91 | 0 |
| 23 | 2004-05-20 | 24.16% | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1509.83 | 4 | @ DC United | 1492.81 | 2 |
| 24 | 2004-08-14 | 24.16% | San Jose Earthquakes | 1522.69 | 2 | @ Kansas City Wizards | 1505.66 | 0 |
| 25 | 2004-04-18 | 24.20% | San Jose Earthquakes | 1521.26 | 3 | @ New England Revolution | 1503.79 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2004-08-15 | 4.92 | Colorado Rapids | 3 | 1485.41 | 19.97% | @ Chicago Fire | 0 | 1515.02 | 50.91% | 29.11% |
| 2 | 2004-06-24 | 4.76 | MetroStars | 3 | 1497.27 | 21.28% | @ Los Angeles Galaxy | 0 | 1511.03 | 48.84% | 29.89% |
| 3 | 2004-08-12 | 4.37 | New England Revolution | 3 | 1497.03 | 25.17% | @ Dallas Burn | 0 | 1470.34 | 43.38% | 31.46% |
| 4 | 2004-04-18 | 3.55 | Dallas Burn | 2 | 1466.76 | 18.01% | @ Chicago Fire | 0 | 1523.00 | 54.33% | 27.66% |
| 5 | 2004-09-19 | 3.53 | @ New England Revolution | 6 | 1497.24 | 47.42% | Colorado Rapids | 1 | 1494.13 | 22.22% | 30.36% |
| 6 | 2004-06-06 | 3.43 | Dallas Burn | 2 | 1464.12 | 19.39% | @ MetroStars | 0 | 1501.17 | 51.88% | 28.73% |
| 7 | 2004-10-24 * | 3.23 | DC United | 2 | 1494.42 | 35.90% | @ MetroStars | 0 | 1500.20 | 64.10% | 0.00% |
| 8 | 2004-07-25 | 3.19 | @ Dallas Burn | 5 | 1466.92 | 43.61% | DC United | 1 | 1491.93 | 24.99% | 31.40% |
| 9 | 2004-08-14 | 3.08 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2 | 1522.69 | 24.16% | @ Kansas City Wizards | 0 | 1505.66 | 44.70% | 31.14% |
| 10 | 2004-09-26 | 2.97 | MetroStars | 2 | 1500.04 | 25.84% | @ Dallas Burn | 0 | 1467.10 | 42.51% | 31.64% |
| 11 | 2004-05-23 | 2.92 | Columbus Crew | 3 | 1496.99 | 20.19% | @ Chicago Fire | 1 | 1523.79 | 50.55% | 29.26% |
| 12 | 2004-10-31 * | 2.92 | @ Kansas City Wizards | 3 | 1502.73 | 60.07% | San Jose Earthquakes | 0 | 1526.75 | 39.93% | 0.00% |
| 13 | 2004-04-04 | 2.78 | MetroStars | 3 | 1499.10 | 22.28% | @ Columbus Crew | 1 | 1501.62 | 47.34% | 30.38% |
| 14 | 2004-08-08 | 2.77 | @ MetroStars | 3 | 1501.81 | 45.74% | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0 | 1511.16 | 23.40% | 30.86% |
| 15 | 2004-06-20 | 2.75 | Kansas City Wizards | 3 | 1499.36 | 22.67% | @ New England Revolution | 1 | 1497.64 | 46.77% | 30.56% |
| 16 | 2004-04-18 | 2.66 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3 | 1521.26 | 24.20% | @ New England Revolution | 1 | 1503.79 | 44.64% | 31.15% |
| 17 | 2004-08-29 | 2.64 | @ Dallas Burn | 4 | 1465.65 | 40.89% | Chicago Fire | 1 | 1510.29 | 27.17% | 31.95% |
| 18 | 2004-07-04 | 2.58 | @ Kansas City Wizards | 5 | 1502.34 | 51.35% | Dallas Burn | 1 | 1469.41 | 19.71% | 28.94% |
| 19 | 2004-07-03 | 2.56 | @ DC United | 6 | 1490.45 | 45.78% | MetroStars | 2 | 1499.53 | 23.37% | 30.85% |
| 20 | 2004-05-08 | 2.55 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 3 | 1507.51 | 26.17% | @ Dallas Burn | 1 | 1471.64 | 42.11% | 31.72% |
| 21 | 2004-05-02 | 2.50 | @ Chicago Fire | 3 | 1521.05 | 49.46% | MetroStars | 0 | 1502.54 | 20.87% | 29.66% |
| 22 | 2004-09-11 | 2.49 | @ DC United | 3 | 1487.49 | 49.66% | Dallas Burn | 0 | 1467.45 | 20.75% | 29.59% |
| 23 | 2004-06-05 | 2.39 | @ Chicago Fire | 3 | 1521.74 | 51.03% | DC United | 0 | 1491.23 | 19.90% | 29.07% |
| 24 | 2004-05-20 | 2.38 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 4 | 1509.83 | 24.16% | @ DC United | 2 | 1492.81 | 44.70% | 31.14% |
| 25 | 2004-08-22 | 2.15 | @ San Jose Earthquakes | 3 | 1525.76 | 54.55% | Dallas Burn | 0 | 1467.80 | 17.89% | 27.56% |