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1939-40 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Inter Milan

44 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1937-38

Relegated

Modena

22 pts

Liguria · 24 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Inter Milan

10.43 points above expected

44 points · 33.57 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Modena

5.36 points below expected

22 points · 27.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Milan Champion 30 20 4 6 44 56 23 +33 33.57 +10.43
2 Bologna 30 16 9 5 41 44 23 +21 34.15 +6.85
3 Juventus 30 15 6 9 36 45 40 +5 30.86 +5.14
4 Lazio Roma 30 12 11 7 35 44 36 +8 31.50 +3.50
5 Genova 1893 30 14 5 11 33 56 47 +9 33.38 -0.38
6 Torino 30 13 7 10 33 47 41 +6 31.40 +1.60
7 Roma 30 11 7 12 29 28 31 -3 30.16 -1.16
8 AC Milan 30 10 8 12 28 46 38 +8 31.11 -3.11
9 Novara 30 12 3 15 27 27 35 -8 29.30 -2.30
10 Venezia 30 10 7 13 27 34 46 -12 28.04 -1.04
11 Bari 30 9 9 12 27 33 46 -13 28.18 -1.18
12 Triestina 30 10 6 14 26 38 43 -5 30.11 -4.11
13 Fiorentina 30 9 6 15 24 37 48 -11 25.13 -1.13
14 Napoli 30 9 6 15 24 26 41 -15 27.52 -3.52
15 Liguria Relegated 30 7 10 13 24 25 44 -19 28.24 -4.24
16 Modena Relegated 30 7 8 15 22 39 43 -4 27.36 -5.36

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Milan 1845 44 33.57 +10.43 99.8% 20 27 31 34 36 40 49
Bologna 1825 41 34.15 +6.85 97.4% 20 28 32 34 37 40 49
Lazio Roma 1763 35 31.50 +3.50 85.2% 17 25 29 31 34 38 46
Genova 1893 1744 33 33.38 -0.38 50.8% 18 27 31 33 36 40 48
Juventus 1743 36 30.86 +5.14 92.7% 17 25 28 31 33 37 48
Torino 1742 33 31.40 +1.60 71.0% 16 25 29 31 34 38 45
AC Milan 1716 28 31.11 -3.11 24.2% 18 25 29 31 34 37 46
Roma 1694 29 30.16 -1.16 42.6% 16 24 28 30 33 36 47
Modena 1680 22 27.36 -5.36 10.4% 14 21 25 27 30 34 41
Triestina 1674 26 30.11 -4.11 17.1% 16 24 27 30 33 36 44
Novara 1671 27 29.30 -2.30 32.3% 13 23 27 29 32 36 43
Napoli 1641 24 27.52 -3.52 22.3% 13 21 25 28 30 34 45
Bari 1637 27 28.18 -1.18 43.0% 15 22 26 28 31 34 43
Liguria 1608 24 28.24 -4.24 16.9% 16 22 26 28 31 35 41
Venezia 1597 27 28.04 -1.04 44.5% 12 22 25 28 31 34 42
Fiorentina 1576 24 25.13 -1.13 43.2% 10 19 23 25 28 31 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM BAR BOL FIO G1 IM JUV LR LIG MOD NAP NOV ROM TOR TRI VEN
AC Milan —
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
3.40
0-2-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.08
2-0-0
2.97
0-0-2
2.93
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
2.84
0-2-0
2.94
2-0-0
2.99
Bari
1-0-1
2.49
 —
0-1-1
2.06
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.35
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.48
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.87
Bologna
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.47
 —
1-0-1
3.64
2-0-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.33
0-2-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.42
Fiorentina
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.48
1-0-1
1.92
 —
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.44
1-1-0
2.31
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.41
Genova 1893
0-2-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-2
2.73
1-1-0
3.51
 —
0-1-1
2.66
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.14
Inter Milan
1-0-1
3.09
0-1-1
3.25
1-1-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.65
1-1-0
2.87
 —
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
3.02
2-0-0
2.99
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.17
Juventus
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.62
 —
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.62
0-0-2
2.86
1-1-0
3.16
Lazio Roma
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.88
 —
0-2-0
3.13
0-2-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.68
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
3.18
Liguria
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.17
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.41
0-0-2
2.44
0-2-0
2.41
 —
0-2-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.82
Modena
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-2
2.47
0-2-0
2.47
0-2-0
2.69
 —
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.56
Napoli
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
2.70
0-2-0
2.02
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.30
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.77
 —
2-0-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.58
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.81
Novara
2-0-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.89
0-1-1
2.32
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
2.98
 —
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.02
Roma
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
3.23
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
2.51
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.83
 —
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.97
Torino
2-0-0
2.69
0-2-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
3.43
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.54
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.85
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
2.96
1-1-0
2.83
 —
1-1-0
2.84
0-1-1
3.03
Triestina
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-2
2.46
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
2.48
2-0-0
2.68
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.68
 —
0-1-1
2.90
Venezia
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
3.12
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.37
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.56
1-1-0
2.52
1-1-0
2.64
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +4.6
Allowed 0.53 -6.0
Differential 0.82 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.08%11.25%5.62%3.12%2.29%—29.38%
111.25%10.00%6.67%4.58%1.04%0.62%34.17%
25.62%6.67%6.25%1.67%0.21%0.62%21.04%
33.12%4.58%1.67%—0.21%0.42%10.00%
42.29%1.04%0.21%0.21%——3.75%
5+—0.62%0.62%0.42%——1.67%
Total29.38%34.17%21.04%10.00%3.75%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.78
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%10.00%13.33%———26.67%
1—10.00%6.67%10.00%——26.67%
26.67%3.33%13.33%———23.33%
310.00%3.33%————13.33%
46.67%3.33%————10.00%
5+———————
Total26.67%30.00%33.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.27 +0.27
SD 1.31 0.98 1.96
CV 0.85 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%—6.67%3.33%—30.00%
113.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%—3.33%36.67%
23.33%6.67%10.00%—3.33%3.33%26.67%
36.67%—————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%33.33%13.33%10.00%6.67%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.53 -0.43
SD 0.92 1.61 1.87
CV 0.84 1.05 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%3.33%———23.33%
113.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
216.67%3.33%3.33%———23.33%
33.33%10.00%3.33%———16.67%
4———————
5+———3.33%——3.33%
Total43.33%40.00%13.33%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 0.77 +0.70
SD 1.22 0.82 1.24
CV 0.83 1.07 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%—3.33%13.33%——23.33%
113.33%10.00%20.00%3.33%——46.67%
23.33%—3.33%10.00%——16.67%
3—3.33%6.67%———10.00%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%13.33%33.33%26.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.60 -0.37
SD 1.04 1.16 1.65
CV 0.84 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%—3.33%3.33%——10.00%
113.33%6.67%10.00%13.33%3.33%—46.67%
26.67%—6.67%———13.33%
36.67%3.33%3.33%——3.33%16.67%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+——3.33%3.33%——6.67%
Total33.33%13.33%26.67%20.00%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.87 1.57 +0.30
SD 1.48 1.41 2.05
CV 0.79 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%—6.67%——20.00%
116.67%3.33%6.67%———26.67%
23.33%16.67%3.33%———23.33%
310.00%3.33%————13.33%
410.00%—————10.00%
5+—6.67%————6.67%
Total46.67%36.67%10.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.87 0.77 +1.10
SD 1.50 0.90 1.95
CV 0.80 1.17 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%——6.67%—23.33%
116.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%——33.33%
23.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%—3.33%26.67%
3—6.67%3.33%———10.00%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total30.00%40.00%13.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.33 +0.17
SD 1.36 1.45 1.95
CV 0.91 1.08 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%——6.67%—20.00%
113.33%20.00%3.33%6.67%——43.33%
210.00%—10.00%———20.00%
3——6.67%———6.67%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total33.33%33.33%20.00%6.67%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.20 +0.27
SD 1.28 1.19 1.86
CV 0.87 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%16.67%3.33%6.67%—40.00%
110.00%20.00%3.33%3.33%——36.67%
23.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%36.67%26.67%10.00%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.47 -0.63
SD 0.79 1.14 1.52
CV 0.95 0.77 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%——3.33%—30.00%
13.33%13.33%13.33%—6.67%—36.67%
2—3.33%6.67%3.33%——13.33%
310.00%———3.33%—13.33%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+———————
Total23.33%40.00%20.00%3.33%13.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.43 -0.13
SD 1.24 1.28 1.85
CV 0.95 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%16.67%20.00%3.33%3.33%—50.00%
16.67%13.33%3.33%—3.33%—26.67%
23.33%6.67%————10.00%
3—10.00%3.33%———13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%46.67%26.67%3.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 1.37 -0.50
SD 1.07 1.03 1.63
CV 1.24 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%26.67%3.33%3.33%——40.00%
123.33%—3.33%6.67%3.33%—36.67%
26.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
3—3.33%———3.33%6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%36.67%10.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 1.17 -0.27
SD 0.92 1.32 1.46
CV 1.03 1.13 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%23.33%3.33%6.67%3.33%—50.00%
116.67%3.33%3.33%———23.33%
26.67%—6.67%———13.33%
3—10.00%————10.00%
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+———————
Total36.67%36.67%16.67%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.03 -0.10
SD 1.17 1.07 1.60
CV 1.26 1.03 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%————16.67%
110.00%6.67%10.00%6.67%—3.33%36.67%
2—13.33%10.00%3.33%——26.67%
33.33%10.00%————13.33%
43.33%——3.33%——6.67%
5+———————
Total23.33%40.00%20.00%13.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.37 +0.20
SD 1.14 1.19 1.61
CV 0.72 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%10.00%———30.00%
110.00%6.67%6.67%10.00%—3.33%36.67%
26.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
3—3.33%————3.33%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total23.33%33.33%26.67%13.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.43 -0.17
SD 1.34 1.19 1.74
CV 1.06 0.83 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%—36.67%
1—6.67%6.67%6.67%——20.00%
210.00%16.67%6.67%——3.33%36.67%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%36.67%26.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.53 -0.40
SD 1.01 1.33 1.75
CV 0.89 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Inter Milan 44 33.57 +10.43
2 Bologna 41 34.15 +6.85
3 Juventus 36 30.86 +5.14
4 Lazio Roma 35 31.50 +3.50
5 Torino 33 31.40 +1.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Modena 22 27.36 -5.36
2 Liguria 24 28.24 -4.24
3 Triestina 26 30.11 -4.11
4 Napoli 24 27.52 -3.52
5 AC Milan 28 31.11 -3.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Milan 8 Feb 25 – May 19 1 in 2,093
2 Lazio Roma 3 Oct 1 – Oct 15 1 in 75
3 Genova 1893 5 Dec 31 – Jan 28 1 in 57
4 AC Milan 3 Mar 24 – Apr 21 1 in 49
5 Venezia 3 Sep 24 – Oct 8 1 in 32

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Modena 6 Dec 3 – Jan 15 1 in 115
2 AC Milan 3 Oct 15 – Oct 29 1 in 101
3 Novara 3 Apr 21 – May 19 1 in 33
4 Genova 1893 3 Feb 18 – Mar 10 1 in 28
5 Torino 3 Oct 8 – Oct 22 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bologna 13 Oct 22 – Feb 4 1 in 115
2 AC Milan 8 Nov 5 – Jan 15 1 in 95
3 Inter Milan 12 Jan 28 – May 19 1 in 81
4 Venezia 6 Sep 17 – Oct 22 1 in 40
5 Juventus 6 Feb 11 – Mar 24 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AC Milan 8 Jan 21 – Mar 17 1 in 132
2 Modena 8 Sep 17 – Nov 5 1 in 58
3 Liguria 7 Sep 17 – Oct 29 1 in 32
4 Triestina 6 Mar 31 – Jun 2 1 in 25
5 Bologna 4 Dec 17 – Jan 15 1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Inter Milan21.22%15.14%12.39%10.37%7.98%7.55%5.51%4.44%4.08%3.33%2.30%1.93%1.56%1.08%0.71%0.41%
Bologna24.41%16.72%13.26%9.79%8.20%6.57%4.93%3.88%3.36%2.45%2.14%1.70%1.16%0.71%0.46%0.26%
Juventus5.71%6.62%7.27%8.22%7.95%8.71%8.37%7.62%7.04%6.72%5.95%6.22%5.06%3.79%2.97%1.78%
Lazio Roma7.18%8.80%9.23%9.45%9.61%8.29%8.13%6.93%6.41%5.88%5.46%4.66%3.72%2.85%2.19%1.21%
Genova 189316.57%14.43%12.53%10.51%8.62%7.54%6.69%5.16%4.33%3.93%3.05%2.26%1.68%1.30%0.94%0.46%
Torino6.59%8.47%8.47%9.15%8.71%8.63%8.27%7.69%7.17%6.11%5.63%4.70%3.74%3.12%2.22%1.33%
Roma3.03%4.89%5.91%6.83%7.55%7.55%8.22%7.93%7.42%7.67%7.11%6.44%6.64%5.68%4.23%2.90%
AC Milan5.71%7.69%8.56%8.90%8.78%8.50%8.39%7.40%7.10%6.60%5.56%5.03%4.53%3.23%2.61%1.41%
Novara2.09%3.65%4.38%4.75%5.99%6.28%6.65%7.47%7.48%7.59%8.26%7.66%7.91%8.21%6.50%5.13%
Venezia0.73%1.90%2.36%3.03%3.84%4.85%5.40%6.35%6.92%7.67%8.20%8.99%9.70%10.00%10.53%9.53%
Bari0.86%1.94%2.88%3.26%4.43%4.48%5.65%5.86%7.36%7.61%8.31%8.35%9.84%9.77%9.67%9.73%
Triestina3.41%4.79%5.51%6.52%7.15%6.84%7.78%8.32%7.66%7.34%7.47%7.28%6.39%5.91%4.58%3.05%
Fiorentina0.14%0.40%0.52%0.97%1.09%1.57%2.00%2.71%3.96%4.59%6.10%7.60%9.96%12.02%18.04%28.33%
Napoli0.74%1.38%2.07%2.27%3.39%4.23%4.06%5.67%6.10%7.12%7.92%9.32%9.17%10.89%12.50%13.17%
Liguria1.01%1.86%2.57%3.36%3.64%4.49%5.33%6.62%6.81%7.26%8.22%9.01%9.12%10.50%10.32%9.88%
Modena0.60%1.32%2.09%2.62%3.07%3.92%4.62%5.95%6.80%8.13%8.32%8.85%9.82%10.94%11.53%11.42%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+45.00%
Strong Edge
60.83%23.33%15.83%
Elo Value
Home Edge
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0168.40600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.77 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.77+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.6
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Inter Milan, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.10/gm
Photo Finish
00.070.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.07 * Some Luck: 3.07 to 4.6 * Lucky: 4.6 to 6.14 * Wild Swing: 6.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.78 * Close: 2.78 to 4.17 * Off: 4.17 to 5.56 * Way Off: 5.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.28 * A Surprise: 1.28 to 2.05 * Several Surprises: 2.05 to 2.82 * Many Surprises: 2.82 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.28 points
Some Luck
03.8310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Pinpoint
03.488
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.83%
Inter Milan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
10.43%
Modena
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.17
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.67
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.25
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Chalky
0%13%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.07 to 0.11 * Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.15 * Well Above Noise: 0.15 and up.
Probability calibration
<0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.25
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.0730.2

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Bologna 99.28% 0.72%
Inter Milan 98.88% 1.12%
Genova 1893 98.60% 1.40%
Lazio Roma 96.60% 3.40%
Torino 96.45% 3.55%
AC Milan 95.98% 4.02%
Juventus 95.25% 4.75%
Roma 92.87% 7.13%
Triestina 92.37% 7.63%
Novara 88.37% 11.63%
Bari 80.60% 19.40%
Venezia 79.94% 20.06%
Liguria 79.80% 20.20%
Modena 77.05% 22.95%
Napoli 74.33% 25.67%
Fiorentina 53.63% 46.37%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1939-09-17 Napoli W 1-0 1668 1687 63.3% 23.8% 12.9% +3.1 2
1939-09-17 @ Bari L 0-1 1687 1668 12.9% 23.8% 63.3% -3.0 0
1939-09-17 Genova 1893 D 1-1 1580 1748 48.8% 24.8% 26.4% -0.9 1
1939-09-17 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1748 1580 26.4% 24.8% 48.8% +0.9 1
1939-09-17 Juventus W 4-0 1752 1716 67.2% 23.0% 9.8% +8.4 2
1939-09-17 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1716 1752 9.8% 23.0% 67.2% -8.4 0
1939-09-17 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1653 1696 61.4% 24.1% 14.5% -2.1 1
1939-09-17 @ Modena D 1-1 1696 1653 14.5% 24.1% 61.4% +2.1 1
1939-09-17 Bologna W 2-0 1715 1760 61.2% 24.1% 14.7% +6.5 2
1939-09-17 @ Roma L 0-2 1760 1715 14.7% 24.1% 61.2% -6.5 0
1939-09-17 Venezia D 0-0 1689 1658 66.9% 23.1% 10.0% -2.9 1
1939-09-17 @ Liguria D 0-0 1658 1689 10.0% 23.1% 66.9% +2.9 1
1939-09-17 AC Milan W 2-1 1726 1725 64.8% 23.5% 11.7% +2.6 2
1939-09-17 @ Torino L 1-2 1725 1726 11.7% 23.5% 64.8% -2.6 0
1939-09-17 Novara W 2-0 1699 1685 65.7% 23.4% 10.9% +4.9 2
1939-09-17 @ Triestina L 0-2 1685 1699 10.9% 23.4% 65.7% -4.9 0
1939-09-24 Fiorentina W 3-1 1723 1579 73.3% 21.0% 5.8% +2.2 2
1939-09-24 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1579 1723 5.8% 21.0% 73.3% -2.2 1
1939-09-24 Triestina W 2-0 1754 1704 68.0% 22.8% 9.2% +4.2 2
1939-09-24 @ Bologna L 0-2 1704 1754 9.2% 22.8% 68.0% -4.1 2
1939-09-24 Bari W 3-0 1749 1671 69.8% 22.3% 7.9% +5.2 3
1939-09-24 @ Genova 1893 L 0-3 1671 1749 7.9% 22.3% 69.8% -5.2 2
1939-09-24 Roma D 1-1 1708 1721 63.8% 23.7% 12.5% -2.3 1
1939-09-24 @ Juventus D 1-1 1721 1708 12.5% 23.7% 63.8% +2.3 3
1939-09-24 Torino D 1-1 1698 1729 62.4% 23.9% 13.7% -2.2 2
1939-09-24 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1729 1698 13.7% 23.9% 62.4% +2.1 3
1939-09-24 Liguria W 3-2 1684 1686 64.6% 23.6% 11.8% +2.5 2
1939-09-24 @ Napoli L 2-3 1686 1684 11.8% 23.6% 64.6% -2.5 1
1939-09-24 Modena W 1-0 1680 1651 66.8% 23.1% 10.1% +2.4 2
1939-09-24 @ Novara L 0-1 1651 1680 10.1% 23.1% 66.8% -2.4 1
1939-09-24 Inter Milan W 2-1 1661 1760 56.3% 24.5% 19.1% +4.1 3
1939-09-24 @ Venezia L 1-2 1760 1661 19.1% 24.5% 56.3% -4.1 2
1939-10-01 Liguria D 1-1 1666 1684 63.4% 23.8% 12.8% -2.2 3
1939-10-01 @ Bari D 1-1 1684 1666 12.8% 23.8% 63.4% +2.2 2
1939-10-01 Lazio Roma L 2-3 1577 1696 54.4% 24.6% 21.0% -9.0 1
1939-10-01 @ Fiorentina W 3-2 1696 1577 21.0% 24.6% 54.4% +9.0 4
1939-10-01 AC Milan D 1-1 1754 1725 66.8% 23.1% 10.1% -2.6 4
1939-10-01 @ Genova 1893 D 1-1 1725 1754 10.1% 23.1% 66.8% +2.6 3
1939-10-01 Napoli W 4-0 1756 1687 69.3% 22.4% 8.3% +7.1 4
1939-10-01 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1687 1756 8.3% 22.4% 69.3% -7.2 2
1939-10-01 Bologna D 0-0 1648 1758 55.3% 24.6% 20.1% -1.7 2
1939-10-01 @ Modena D 0-0 1758 1648 20.1% 24.6% 55.3% +1.7 3
1939-10-01 Venezia L 0-2 1723 1665 68.6% 22.6% 8.7% -23.8 3
1939-10-01 @ Roma W 2-0 1665 1723 8.7% 22.6% 68.6% +23.8 5
1939-10-01 Novara W 1-0 1731 1683 68.0% 22.8% 9.2% +2.2 5
1939-10-01 @ Torino L 0-1 1683 1731 9.2% 22.8% 68.0% -2.2 2
1939-10-01 Juventus W 1-0 1700 1706 64.3% 23.6% 12.0% +2.9 4
1939-10-01 @ Triestina L 0-1 1706 1700 12.0% 23.6% 64.3% -2.9 1
1939-10-08 Bari W 4-0 1727 1663 68.9% 22.5% 8.5% +7.3 5
1939-10-08 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1663 1727 8.5% 22.5% 68.9% -7.3 3
1939-10-08 Torino W 3-1 1760 1733 66.6% 23.2% 10.3% +4.0 5
1939-10-08 @ Bologna L 1-3 1733 1760 10.3% 23.2% 66.6% -4.0 5
1939-10-08 Modena W 1-0 1703 1647 68.5% 22.7% 8.9% +2.1 3
1939-10-08 @ Juventus L 0-1 1647 1703 8.9% 22.7% 68.5% -2.1 2
1939-10-08 Genova 1893 W 4-1 1705 1752 61.1% 24.1% 14.8% +8.0 6
1939-10-08 @ Lazio Roma L 1-4 1752 1705 14.8% 24.1% 61.1% -8.0 4
1939-10-08 Roma L 0-1 1680 1700 63.2% 23.8% 12.9% -11.7 2
1939-10-08 @ Napoli W 1-0 1700 1680 12.9% 23.8% 63.2% +11.7 5
1939-10-08 Fiorentina W 2-1 1680 1568 71.7% 21.6% 6.7% +1.5 4
1939-10-08 @ Novara L 1-2 1568 1680 6.7% 21.6% 71.7% -1.5 1
1939-10-08 Inter Milan L 0-2 1686 1763 58.4% 24.4% 17.2% -20.4 2
1939-10-08 @ Liguria W 2-0 1763 1686 17.2% 24.4% 58.4% +20.4 6
1939-10-08 Triestina W 3-1 1689 1703 63.7% 23.8% 12.6% +4.9 7
1939-10-08 @ Venezia L 1-3 1703 1689 12.6% 23.8% 63.7% -4.9 4
1939-10-15 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1735 1713 66.3% 23.2% 10.5% -23.1 5
1939-10-15 @ AC Milan W 2-0 1713 1735 10.5% 23.2% 66.3% +23.1 8
1939-10-15 Inter Milan W 3-0 1656 1784 53.4% 24.7% 21.9% +13.2 5
1939-10-15 @ Bari L 0-3 1784 1656 21.9% 24.7% 53.4% -13.2 6
1939-10-15 Bologna W 1-0 1566 1764 45.2% 24.7% 30.1% +6.2 3
1939-10-15 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1764 1566 30.1% 24.7% 45.2% -6.2 5
1939-10-15 Novara W 5-3 1744 1682 68.8% 22.6% 8.6% +2.9 6
1939-10-15 @ Genova 1893 L 3-5 1682 1744 8.6% 22.6% 68.8% -2.9 4
1939-10-15 Venezia D 2-2 1645 1693 60.9% 24.1% 14.9% -1.5 3
1939-10-15 @ Modena D 2-2 1693 1645 14.9% 24.1% 60.9% +1.5 8
1939-10-15 Liguria D 2-2 1711 1665 67.8% 22.9% 9.3% -2.0 6
1939-10-15 @ Roma D 2-2 1665 1711 9.3% 22.9% 67.8% +2.0 3
1939-10-15 Juventus L 1-2 1729 1705 66.4% 23.2% 10.4% -11.6 5
1939-10-15 @ Torino W 2-1 1705 1729 10.4% 23.2% 66.4% +11.5 5
1939-10-15 Napoli W 2-0 1698 1668 66.8% 23.1% 10.1% +4.6 6
1939-10-15 @ Triestina L 0-2 1668 1698 10.1% 23.1% 66.8% -4.6 2
1939-10-22 Genova 1893 W 5-3 1757 1747 65.5% 23.4% 11.1% +3.7 7
1939-10-22 @ Bologna L 3-5 1747 1757 11.1% 23.4% 65.5% -3.7 6
1939-10-22 Roma W 3-0 1770 1709 68.8% 22.6% 8.6% +5.7 8
1939-10-22 @ Inter Milan L 0-3 1709 1770 8.6% 22.6% 68.8% -5.7 6
1939-10-22 Fiorentina W 3-2 1716 1573 73.3% 21.0% 5.7% +1.2 7
1939-10-22 @ Juventus L 2-3 1573 1716 5.7% 21.0% 73.3% -1.2 3
1939-10-22 Bari L 0-1 1736 1669 69.1% 22.5% 8.4% -12.7 8
1939-10-22 @ Lazio Roma W 1-0 1669 1736 8.4% 22.5% 69.1% +12.7 7
1939-10-22 Modena W 1-0 1663 1643 66.1% 23.3% 10.6% +2.5 4
1939-10-22 @ Napoli L 0-1 1643 1663 10.6% 23.3% 66.1% -2.5 3
1939-10-22 AC Milan W 1-0 1679 1712 62.3% 24.0% 13.8% +3.2 6
1939-10-22 @ Novara L 0-1 1712 1679 13.8% 24.0% 62.3% -3.2 5
1939-10-22 Triestina D 1-1 1667 1703 62.1% 24.0% 14.0% -2.1 4
1939-10-22 @ Liguria D 1-1 1703 1667 14.0% 24.0% 62.1% +2.1 7
1939-10-22 Torino W 2-1 1695 1718 63.0% 23.8% 13.1% +2.9 10
1939-10-22 @ Venezia L 1-2 1718 1695 13.1% 23.8% 63.0% -2.9 5
1939-10-29 Bologna L 0-2 1708 1761 60.6% 24.2% 15.2% -21.1 5
1939-10-29 @ AC Milan W 2-0 1761 1708 15.2% 24.2% 60.6% +21.1 9
1939-10-29 Roma D 0-0 1682 1704 63.1% 23.8% 13.0% -2.5 8
1939-10-29 @ Bari D 0-0 1704 1682 13.0% 23.8% 63.1% +2.5 7
1939-10-29 Venezia W 3-1 1571 1698 53.6% 24.7% 21.8% +7.9 5
1939-10-29 @ Fiorentina L 1-3 1698 1571 21.8% 24.7% 53.6% -7.8 10
1939-10-29 Juventus W 3-2 1743 1718 66.5% 23.2% 10.3% +2.2 8
1939-10-29 @ Genova 1893 L 2-3 1718 1743 10.3% 23.2% 66.5% -2.2 7
1939-10-29 Novara W 1-0 1723 1682 67.5% 22.9% 9.6% +2.3 10
1939-10-29 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1682 1723 9.6% 22.9% 67.5% -2.3 6
1939-10-29 Liguria D 1-1 1641 1665 62.9% 23.9% 13.2% -2.2 4
1939-10-29 @ Modena D 1-1 1665 1641 13.2% 23.9% 62.9% +2.2 5
1939-10-29 Napoli W 1-0 1715 1666 68.0% 22.8% 9.2% +2.2 7
1939-10-29 @ Torino L 0-1 1666 1715 9.2% 22.8% 68.0% -2.2 4
1939-10-29 Inter Milan W 2-1 1705 1776 59.0% 24.3% 16.7% +3.6 9
1939-10-29 @ Triestina L 1-2 1776 1705 16.7% 24.3% 59.0% -3.6 8
1939-11-05 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1782 1725 68.5% 22.7% 8.8% +3.5 11
1939-11-05 @ Bologna L 1-3 1725 1782 8.8% 22.7% 68.5% -3.5 10
1939-11-05 Modena W 2-1 1772 1638 72.8% 21.2% 6.0% +1.3 10
1939-11-05 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1638 1772 6.0% 21.2% 72.8% -1.3 4
1939-11-05 AC Milan D 2-2 1715 1687 66.7% 23.2% 10.2% -1.9 8
1939-11-05 @ Juventus D 2-2 1687 1715 10.2% 23.2% 66.7% +1.9 6
1939-11-05 Fiorentina W 2-1 1664 1579 70.1% 22.2% 7.7% +1.8 6
1939-11-05 @ Napoli L 1-2 1579 1664 7.7% 22.2% 70.1% -1.8 5
1939-11-05 Bari W 1-0 1680 1679 64.8% 23.5% 11.7% +2.8 8
1939-11-05 @ Novara L 0-1 1679 1680 11.7% 23.5% 64.8% -2.8 8
1939-11-05 Triestina W 1-0 1706 1708 64.6% 23.6% 11.8% +2.8 9
1939-11-05 @ Roma L 0-1 1708 1706 11.8% 23.6% 64.6% -2.8 9
1939-11-05 Torino W 2-1 1668 1717 60.9% 24.1% 15.0% +3.3 7
1939-11-05 @ Liguria L 1-2 1717 1668 15.0% 24.1% 60.9% -3.3 7
1939-11-05 Genova 1893 L 2-6 1690 1745 60.4% 24.2% 15.4% -28.2 10
1939-11-05 @ Venezia W 6-2 1745 1690 15.4% 24.2% 60.4% +28.2 10
1939-11-19 Venezia W 2-1 1689 1662 66.6% 23.2% 10.2% +2.3 8
1939-11-19 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1662 1689 10.2% 23.2% 66.6% -2.3 10
1939-11-19 Triestina D 2-2 1677 1706 62.6% 23.9% 13.5% -1.6 9
1939-11-19 @ Bari D 2-2 1706 1677 13.5% 23.9% 62.6% +1.6 10
1939-11-19 Liguria W 4-0 1577 1671 56.9% 24.5% 18.6% +15.1 7
1939-11-19 @ Fiorentina L 0-4 1671 1577 18.6% 24.5% 56.9% -15.1 7
1939-11-19 Napoli W 2-0 1774 1665 71.5% 21.7% 6.8% +3.1 12
1939-11-19 @ Genova 1893 L 0-2 1665 1774 6.8% 21.7% 71.5% -3.1 6
1939-11-19 Juventus W 4-0 1722 1713 65.3% 23.4% 11.2% +9.6 12
1939-11-19 @ Lazio Roma L 0-4 1713 1722 11.2% 23.4% 65.3% -9.6 8
1939-11-19 Roma W 1-0 1637 1709 58.9% 24.3% 16.7% +3.8 6
1939-11-19 @ Modena L 0-1 1709 1637 16.7% 24.3% 58.9% -3.9 9
1939-11-19 Bologna D 0-0 1683 1786 56.0% 24.6% 19.4% -1.7 9
1939-11-19 @ Novara D 0-0 1786 1683 19.4% 24.6% 56.0% +1.7 12
1939-11-19 Inter Milan L 0-1 1714 1774 60.0% 24.2% 15.8% -11.1 7
1939-11-19 @ Torino W 1-0 1774 1714 15.8% 24.2% 60.0% +11.1 12
1939-12-03 Bari W 3-1 1787 1675 71.7% 21.6% 6.7% +2.6 14
1939-12-03 @ Bologna L 1-3 1675 1787 6.7% 21.6% 71.7% -2.6 9
1939-12-03 Fiorentina W 3-0 1785 1593 75.6% 19.9% 4.5% +2.9 14
1939-12-03 @ Inter Milan L 0-3 1593 1785 4.5% 19.9% 75.6% -2.9 7
1939-12-03 Novara W 1-0 1704 1681 66.3% 23.2% 10.4% +2.5 10
1939-12-03 @ Juventus L 0-1 1681 1704 10.4% 23.2% 66.3% -2.5 9
1939-12-03 AC Milan L 1-4 1662 1692 62.5% 23.9% 13.5% -26.7 6
1939-12-03 @ Napoli W 4-1 1692 1662 13.5% 23.9% 62.5% +26.7 10
1939-12-03 Torino D 0-0 1705 1703 64.9% 23.5% 11.6% -2.7 10
1939-12-03 @ Roma D 0-0 1703 1705 11.6% 23.5% 64.9% +2.7 8
1939-12-03 Genova 1893 W 2-1 1656 1777 54.1% 24.6% 21.2% +4.4 9
1939-12-03 @ Liguria L 1-2 1777 1656 21.2% 24.6% 54.1% -4.4 12
1939-12-03 Modena W 4-1 1707 1641 69.1% 22.5% 8.4% +4.7 12
1939-12-03 @ Triestina L 1-4 1641 1707 8.4% 22.5% 69.1% -4.7 6
1939-12-03 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1659 1731 58.9% 24.3% 16.7% +3.6 12
1939-12-03 @ Venezia L 1-2 1731 1659 16.7% 24.3% 58.9% -3.6 12
1939-12-10 Liguria D 1-1 1718 1660 68.6% 22.7% 8.8% -2.7 11
1939-12-10 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1660 1718 8.8% 22.7% 68.6% +2.7 10
1939-12-10 Modena W 1-0 1672 1636 67.2% 23.0% 9.8% +2.3 11
1939-12-10 @ Bari L 0-1 1636 1672 9.8% 23.0% 67.2% -2.4 6
1939-12-10 Juventus W 1-0 1790 1706 70.1% 22.2% 7.7% +1.9 16
1939-12-10 @ Bologna L 0-1 1706 1790 7.7% 22.2% 70.1% -1.9 10
1939-12-10 Roma W 1-0 1590 1702 55.0% 24.6% 20.4% +4.6 9
1939-12-10 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1702 1590 20.4% 24.6% 55.0% -4.6 10
1939-12-10 Inter Milan D 2-2 1772 1788 63.6% 23.8% 12.7% -1.7 13
1939-12-10 @ Genova 1893 D 2-2 1788 1772 12.7% 23.8% 63.6% +1.7 15
1939-12-10 Napoli W 2-0 1728 1636 70.6% 22.0% 7.4% +3.4 14
1939-12-10 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1636 1728 7.4% 22.0% 70.6% -3.4 6
1939-12-10 Venezia W 2-0 1679 1663 65.8% 23.3% 10.8% +4.9 11
1939-12-10 @ Novara L 0-2 1663 1679 10.8% 23.3% 65.8% -4.9 12
1939-12-10 Triestina W 3-1 1705 1712 64.2% 23.6% 12.1% +4.7 10
1939-12-10 @ Torino L 1-3 1712 1705 12.1% 23.6% 64.2% -4.7 12
1939-12-17 AC Milan L 0-3 1789 1715 69.5% 22.4% 8.1% -35.0 15
1939-12-17 @ Inter Milan W 3-0 1715 1789 8.1% 22.4% 69.5% +35.0 13
1939-12-17 Bari W 6-2 1705 1675 66.8% 23.1% 10.1% +6.1 12
1939-12-17 @ Juventus L 2-6 1675 1705 10.1% 23.1% 66.8% -6.1 11
1939-12-17 Torino L 1-2 1634 1710 58.6% 24.4% 17.1% -10.2 6
1939-12-17 @ Modena W 2-1 1710 1634 17.1% 24.4% 58.6% +10.2 12
1939-12-17 Novara W 2-1 1632 1683 60.7% 24.2% 15.1% +3.3 8
1939-12-17 @ Napoli L 1-2 1683 1632 15.1% 24.2% 60.7% -3.3 11
1939-12-17 Genova 1893 W 2-0 1698 1771 58.9% 24.4% 16.8% +7.3 12
1939-12-17 @ Roma L 0-2 1771 1698 16.8% 24.4% 58.9% -7.3 13
1939-12-17 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1663 1731 59.3% 24.3% 16.4% -2.1 11
1939-12-17 @ Liguria D 0-0 1731 1663 16.4% 24.3% 59.3% +2.1 15
1939-12-17 Fiorentina W 2-1 1707 1594 71.7% 21.6% 6.7% +1.5 14
1939-12-17 @ Triestina L 1-2 1594 1707 6.7% 21.6% 71.7% -1.5 9
1939-12-17 Bologna D 1-1 1658 1792 52.8% 24.7% 22.5% -1.3 13
1939-12-17 @ Venezia D 1-1 1792 1658 22.5% 24.7% 52.8% +1.3 17
1939-12-31 Roma W 3-0 1751 1705 67.8% 22.9% 9.3% +6.2 15
1939-12-31 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1705 1751 9.3% 22.9% 67.8% -6.2 12
1939-12-31 Torino D 2-2 1669 1720 60.7% 24.2% 15.1% -1.5 12
1939-12-31 @ Bari D 2-2 1720 1669 15.1% 24.2% 60.7% +1.5 13
1939-12-31 Napoli D 1-1 1793 1636 74.0% 20.6% 5.4% -3.2 18
1939-12-31 @ Bologna D 1-1 1636 1793 5.4% 20.6% 74.0% +3.2 9
1939-12-31 Modena W 3-2 1593 1624 62.4% 23.9% 13.7% +2.9 11
1939-12-31 @ Fiorentina L 2-3 1624 1593 13.7% 23.9% 62.4% -2.9 6
1939-12-31 Triestina W 1-0 1763 1709 68.4% 22.7% 8.9% +2.2 15
1939-12-31 @ Genova 1893 L 0-1 1709 1763 8.9% 22.7% 68.4% -2.2 14
1939-12-31 Venezia W 1-0 1711 1657 68.3% 22.7% 9.0% +2.2 14
1939-12-31 @ Juventus L 0-1 1657 1711 9.0% 22.7% 68.3% -2.2 13
1939-12-31 Inter Milan D 1-1 1733 1754 63.1% 23.8% 13.0% -2.2 16
1939-12-31 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1754 1733 13.0% 23.8% 63.1% +2.2 16
1939-12-31 Liguria W 1-0 1680 1661 66.1% 23.3% 10.6% +2.5 13
1939-12-31 @ Novara L 0-1 1661 1680 10.6% 23.3% 66.1% -2.5 11
1940-01-07 Venezia W 3-0 1667 1655 65.6% 23.4% 11.0% +7.2 14
1940-01-07 @ Bari L 0-3 1655 1667 11.0% 23.4% 65.6% -7.2 13
1940-01-07 Novara W 1-0 1757 1683 69.5% 22.4% 8.1% +1.9 18
1940-01-07 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1683 1757 8.1% 22.4% 69.5% -2.0 13
1940-01-07 Genova 1893 L 1-4 1621 1765 51.6% 24.7% 23.7% -22.2 6
1940-01-07 @ Modena W 4-1 1765 1621 23.7% 24.7% 51.6% +22.1 17
1940-01-07 Juventus D 0-0 1639 1713 58.7% 24.4% 16.9% -2.0 10
1940-01-07 @ Napoli D 0-0 1713 1639 16.9% 24.4% 58.7% +2.0 15
1940-01-07 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1699 1731 62.3% 24.0% 13.7% +3.2 14
1940-01-07 @ Roma L 0-1 1731 1699 13.7% 24.0% 62.3% -3.2 16
1940-01-07 Bologna D 1-1 1658 1790 53.0% 24.7% 22.3% -1.3 12
1940-01-07 @ Liguria D 1-1 1790 1658 22.3% 24.7% 53.0% +1.3 19
1940-01-07 Fiorentina W 2-1 1722 1596 72.4% 21.3% 6.3% +1.4 15
1940-01-07 @ Torino L 1-2 1596 1722 6.3% 21.3% 72.4% -1.4 11
1940-01-07 AC Milan D 1-1 1707 1757 60.8% 24.1% 15.0% -2.0 15
1940-01-07 @ Triestina D 1-1 1757 1707 15.0% 24.1% 60.8% +2.0 16
1940-01-15 Modena W 4-0 1759 1599 74.1% 20.6% 5.3% +4.5 18
1940-01-15 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1599 1759 5.3% 20.6% 74.1% -4.5 6
1940-01-15 Inter Milan D 0-0 1791 1759 67.0% 23.1% 10.0% -2.9 20
1940-01-15 @ Bologna D 0-0 1759 1791 10.0% 23.1% 67.0% +2.9 19
1940-01-15 Bari D 1-1 1594 1674 58.2% 24.4% 17.4% -1.8 12
1940-01-15 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1674 1594 17.4% 24.4% 58.2% +1.7 15
1940-01-15 Torino W 1-0 1788 1723 69.0% 22.5% 8.5% +2.0 19
1940-01-15 @ Genova 1893 L 0-1 1723 1788 8.5% 22.5% 69.0% -2.0 15
1940-01-15 Liguria W 4-0 1715 1657 68.6% 22.7% 8.8% +7.6 17
1940-01-15 @ Juventus L 0-4 1657 1715 8.8% 22.7% 68.6% -7.6 12
1940-01-15 Triestina W 2-0 1728 1705 66.3% 23.2% 10.4% +4.7 18
1940-01-15 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1705 1728 10.4% 23.2% 66.3% -4.7 15
1940-01-15 Roma W 1-0 1681 1702 63.1% 23.8% 13.0% +3.1 15
1940-01-15 @ Novara L 0-1 1702 1681 13.0% 23.8% 63.1% -3.1 14
1940-01-15 Napoli W 2-0 1648 1637 65.5% 23.4% 11.1% +5.0 15
1940-01-15 @ Venezia L 0-2 1637 1648 11.1% 23.4% 65.5% -5.0 10
1940-01-21 Torino L 1-3 1763 1721 67.6% 22.9% 9.5% -20.4 18
1940-01-21 @ AC Milan W 3-1 1721 1763 9.5% 22.9% 67.6% +20.3 17
1940-01-21 Roma W 1-0 1788 1699 70.4% 22.1% 7.5% +1.8 22
1940-01-21 @ Bologna L 0-1 1699 1788 7.5% 22.1% 70.4% -1.8 14
1940-01-21 Fiorentina W 3-0 1790 1592 75.8% 19.8% 4.4% +2.8 21
1940-01-21 @ Genova 1893 L 0-3 1592 1790 4.4% 19.8% 75.8% -2.8 12
1940-01-21 Inter Milan W 1-0 1722 1762 61.8% 24.0% 14.2% +3.3 19
1940-01-21 @ Juventus L 0-1 1762 1722 14.2% 24.0% 61.8% -3.3 19
1940-01-21 Modena D 1-1 1732 1594 73.0% 21.1% 5.9% -3.1 19
1940-01-21 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1594 1732 5.9% 21.1% 73.0% +3.1 7
1940-01-21 Bari D 1-1 1632 1676 61.3% 24.1% 14.6% -2.0 11
1940-01-21 @ Napoli D 1-1 1676 1632 14.6% 24.1% 61.3% +2.0 16
1940-01-21 Triestina W 2-1 1684 1700 63.6% 23.8% 12.7% +2.8 17
1940-01-21 @ Novara L 1-2 1700 1684 12.7% 23.8% 63.6% -2.8 15
1940-01-21 Liguria W 2-1 1653 1649 65.0% 23.5% 11.5% +2.6 17
1940-01-21 @ Venezia L 1-2 1649 1653 11.5% 23.5% 65.0% -2.6 12
1940-01-28 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1678 1792 54.9% 24.6% 20.5% -10.2 16
1940-01-28 @ Bari W 1-0 1792 1678 20.5% 24.6% 54.9% +10.2 23
1940-01-28 AC Milan W 1-0 1590 1743 50.6% 24.7% 24.7% +5.3 14
1940-01-28 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1743 1590 24.7% 24.7% 50.6% -5.3 18
1940-01-28 Venezia W 2-1 1758 1655 71.2% 21.8% 7.0% +1.6 21
1940-01-28 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1655 1758 7.0% 21.8% 71.2% -1.6 17
1940-01-28 Novara W 4-1 1597 1687 57.3% 24.5% 18.2% +9.6 9
1940-01-28 @ Modena L 1-4 1687 1597 18.2% 24.5% 57.3% -9.6 17
1940-01-28 Juventus W 3-1 1697 1726 62.6% 23.9% 13.5% +5.2 16
1940-01-28 @ Roma L 1-3 1726 1697 13.5% 23.9% 62.6% -5.2 19
1940-01-28 Napoli W 2-0 1647 1630 65.9% 23.3% 10.7% +4.9 14
1940-01-28 @ Liguria L 0-2 1630 1647 10.7% 23.3% 65.9% -4.9 11
1940-01-28 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1741 1729 65.6% 23.4% 11.0% -12.1 17
1940-01-28 @ Torino W 1-0 1729 1741 11.0% 23.4% 65.6% +12.1 21
1940-01-28 Bologna L 0-2 1697 1790 57.0% 24.5% 18.6% -19.9 15
1940-01-28 @ Triestina W 2-0 1790 1697 18.6% 24.5% 57.0% +19.9 24
1940-02-04 Genova 1893 D 2-2 1737 1803 59.5% 24.3% 16.2% -1.4 19
1940-02-04 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1803 1737 16.2% 24.3% 59.5% +1.4 24
1940-02-04 Modena W 1-0 1810 1607 76.1% 19.6% 4.3% +1.0 26
1940-02-04 @ Bologna L 0-1 1607 1810 4.3% 19.6% 76.1% -1.0 9
1940-02-04 Triestina L 2-6 1721 1677 67.7% 22.9% 9.4% -31.6 19
1940-02-04 @ Juventus W 6-2 1677 1721 9.4% 22.9% 67.7% +31.6 17
1940-02-04 Fiorentina D 1-1 1741 1595 73.4% 20.9% 5.7% -3.1 22
1940-02-04 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1595 1741 5.7% 20.9% 73.4% +3.1 15
1940-02-04 Inter Milan L 0-1 1625 1760 52.6% 24.7% 22.7% -9.8 11
1940-02-04 @ Napoli W 1-0 1760 1625 22.7% 24.7% 52.6% +9.8 23
1940-02-04 Torino L 0-1 1677 1729 60.7% 24.2% 15.2% -11.2 17
1940-02-04 @ Novara W 1-0 1729 1677 15.2% 24.2% 60.7% +11.2 19
1940-02-04 Bari W 1-0 1652 1668 63.5% 23.8% 12.7% +3.0 16
1940-02-04 @ Liguria L 0-1 1668 1652 12.7% 23.8% 63.5% -3.0 16
1940-02-04 Roma D 2-2 1654 1702 60.9% 24.1% 14.9% -1.5 18
1940-02-04 @ Venezia D 2-2 1702 1654 14.9% 24.1% 60.9% +1.5 17
1940-02-11 AC Milan W 2-0 1665 1736 59.0% 24.3% 16.7% +7.2 18
1940-02-11 @ Bari L 0-2 1736 1665 16.7% 24.3% 59.0% -7.2 19
1940-02-11 Novara D 2-2 1598 1666 59.3% 24.3% 16.4% -1.4 16
1940-02-11 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1666 1598 16.4% 24.3% 59.3% +1.4 18
1940-02-11 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1804 1738 69.0% 22.5% 8.4% +7.3 26
1940-02-11 @ Genova 1893 L 0-4 1738 1804 8.4% 22.5% 69.0% -7.3 22
1940-02-11 Liguria W 1-0 1770 1655 71.8% 21.6% 6.6% +1.6 25
1940-02-11 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1655 1770 6.6% 21.6% 71.8% -1.6 16
1940-02-11 Juventus L 1-2 1606 1689 57.9% 24.4% 17.7% -10.1 9
1940-02-11 @ Modena W 2-1 1689 1606 17.7% 24.4% 57.9% +10.1 21
1940-02-11 Napoli W 1-0 1704 1615 70.4% 22.1% 7.5% +1.8 19
1940-02-11 @ Roma L 0-1 1615 1704 7.5% 22.1% 70.4% -1.8 11
1940-02-11 Bologna W 2-1 1740 1811 59.1% 24.3% 16.6% +3.6 21
1940-02-11 @ Torino L 1-2 1811 1740 16.6% 24.3% 59.1% -3.6 26
1940-02-11 Venezia D 0-0 1709 1652 68.5% 22.7% 8.8% -3.0 18
1940-02-11 @ Triestina D 0-0 1652 1709 8.8% 22.7% 68.5% +3.0 19
1940-02-18 Fiorentina W 3-2 1807 1597 76.4% 19.4% 4.1% +0.9 28
1940-02-18 @ Bologna L 2-3 1597 1807 4.1% 19.4% 76.4% -0.8 16
1940-02-18 Bari D 0-0 1771 1672 71.0% 21.9% 7.2% -3.3 26
1940-02-18 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1672 1771 7.2% 21.9% 71.0% +3.3 19
1940-02-18 Torino D 1-1 1699 1744 61.3% 24.1% 14.6% -2.0 22
1940-02-18 @ Juventus D 1-1 1744 1699 14.6% 24.1% 61.3% +2.0 22
1940-02-18 AC Milan D 2-2 1731 1729 64.9% 23.5% 11.6% -1.8 23
1940-02-18 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1729 1731 11.6% 23.5% 64.9% +1.8 20
1940-02-18 Triestina W 3-1 1613 1706 57.0% 24.5% 18.5% +6.8 13
1940-02-18 @ Napoli L 1-3 1706 1613 18.5% 24.5% 57.0% -6.9 18
1940-02-18 Genova 1893 W 3-1 1667 1811 51.6% 24.7% 23.6% +8.4 20
1940-02-18 @ Novara L 1-3 1811 1667 23.6% 24.7% 51.6% -8.4 26
1940-02-18 Roma W 1-0 1653 1706 60.6% 24.2% 15.2% +3.6 18
1940-02-18 @ Liguria L 0-1 1706 1653 15.2% 24.2% 60.6% -3.5 19
1940-02-18 Modena L 0-4 1655 1596 68.7% 22.6% 8.7% -45.2 19
1940-02-18 @ Venezia W 4-0 1596 1655 8.7% 22.6% 68.7% +45.2 11
1940-02-25 Novara L 0-2 1731 1676 68.4% 22.7% 8.9% -23.8 20
1940-02-25 @ AC Milan W 2-0 1676 1731 8.9% 22.7% 68.4% +23.8 22
1940-02-25 Lazio Roma L 1-5 1676 1729 60.5% 24.2% 15.3% -33.3 19
1940-02-25 @ Bari W 5-1 1729 1676 15.3% 24.2% 60.5% +33.3 25
1940-02-25 Juventus D 0-0 1596 1697 56.2% 24.6% 19.3% -1.8 17
1940-02-25 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1697 1596 19.3% 24.6% 56.2% +1.8 23
1940-02-25 Bologna L 1-2 1803 1808 64.3% 23.6% 12.0% -11.2 26
1940-02-25 @ Genova 1893 W 2-1 1808 1803 12.0% 23.6% 64.3% +11.2 30
1940-02-25 Napoli D 0-0 1641 1620 66.2% 23.3% 10.5% -2.8 12
1940-02-25 @ Modena D 0-0 1620 1641 10.5% 23.3% 66.2% +2.8 14
1940-02-25 Inter Milan L 1-2 1702 1768 59.5% 24.3% 16.2% -10.4 19
1940-02-25 @ Roma W 2-1 1768 1702 16.2% 24.3% 59.5% +10.4 28
1940-02-25 Venezia D 0-0 1746 1610 72.9% 21.1% 6.0% -3.4 23
1940-02-25 @ Torino D 0-0 1610 1746 6.0% 21.1% 72.9% +3.4 20
1940-02-25 Liguria W 3-1 1699 1657 67.6% 22.9% 9.5% +3.7 20
1940-02-25 @ Triestina L 1-3 1657 1699 9.5% 22.9% 67.6% -3.7 18
1940-03-10 AC Milan W 1-0 1820 1707 71.7% 21.6% 6.7% +1.6 32
1940-03-10 @ Bologna L 0-1 1707 1820 6.7% 21.6% 71.7% -1.6 20
1940-03-10 Triestina W 5-1 1778 1703 69.6% 22.3% 8.0% +5.8 30
1940-03-10 @ Inter Milan L 1-5 1703 1778 8.0% 22.3% 69.6% -5.8 20
1940-03-10 Genova 1893 W 3-1 1699 1792 57.0% 24.5% 18.5% +6.9 25
1940-03-10 @ Juventus L 1-3 1792 1699 18.5% 24.5% 57.0% -6.9 26
1940-03-10 Torino W 3-1 1623 1743 54.3% 24.6% 21.1% +7.7 16
1940-03-10 @ Napoli L 1-3 1743 1623 21.1% 24.6% 54.3% -7.6 23
1940-03-10 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1699 1763 59.7% 24.3% 16.0% -2.1 23
1940-03-10 @ Novara D 0-0 1763 1699 16.0% 24.3% 59.7% +2.1 26
1940-03-10 Bari W 4-2 1692 1642 68.1% 22.8% 9.1% +3.2 21
1940-03-10 @ Roma L 2-4 1642 1692 9.1% 22.8% 68.1% -3.2 19
1940-03-10 Modena D 1-1 1653 1638 65.8% 23.4% 10.9% -2.5 19
1940-03-10 @ Liguria D 1-1 1638 1653 10.9% 23.4% 65.8% +2.5 13
1940-03-10 Fiorentina W 2-0 1613 1594 66.1% 23.3% 10.6% +4.8 22
1940-03-10 @ Venezia L 0-2 1594 1613 10.6% 23.3% 66.1% -4.8 17
1940-03-17 Juventus L 1-2 1705 1706 64.7% 23.6% 11.7% -11.3 20
1940-03-17 @ AC Milan W 2-1 1706 1705 11.7% 23.6% 64.7% +11.3 27
1940-03-17 Novara W 1-0 1639 1697 60.1% 24.2% 15.6% +3.6 21
1940-03-17 @ Bari L 0-1 1697 1639 15.6% 24.2% 60.1% -3.6 23
1940-03-17 Napoli W 2-0 1589 1630 61.6% 24.1% 14.4% +6.4 19
1940-03-17 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1630 1589 14.4% 24.1% 61.6% -6.4 16
1940-03-17 Venezia W 3-1 1785 1618 74.4% 20.4% 5.1% +2.0 28
1940-03-17 @ Genova 1893 L 1-3 1618 1785 5.1% 20.4% 74.4% -2.0 22
1940-03-17 Bologna D 2-2 1765 1821 60.3% 24.2% 15.5% -1.5 27
1940-03-17 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1821 1765 15.5% 24.2% 60.3% +1.4 33
1940-03-17 Inter Milan L 1-2 1641 1784 51.7% 24.7% 23.6% -9.1 13
1940-03-17 @ Modena W 2-1 1784 1641 23.6% 24.7% 51.7% +9.1 32
1940-03-17 Liguria W 3-0 1735 1650 70.1% 22.2% 7.7% +5.1 25
1940-03-17 @ Torino L 0-3 1650 1735 7.7% 22.2% 70.1% -5.1 19
1940-03-17 Roma W 1-0 1697 1695 64.9% 23.5% 11.6% +2.8 22
1940-03-17 @ Triestina L 0-1 1695 1697 11.6% 23.5% 64.9% -2.8 21
1940-03-24 Novara W 3-0 1823 1694 72.5% 21.3% 6.2% +4.0 35
1940-03-24 @ Bologna L 0-3 1694 1823 6.2% 21.3% 72.5% -4.0 23
1940-03-24 Torino W 5-1 1793 1740 68.3% 22.7% 9.0% +6.5 34
1940-03-24 @ Inter Milan L 1-5 1740 1793 9.0% 22.7% 68.3% -6.5 25
1940-03-24 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1717 1763 61.2% 24.1% 14.7% +5.6 29
1940-03-24 @ Juventus L 1-3 1763 1717 14.7% 24.1% 61.2% -5.6 27
1940-03-24 Genova 1893 W 3-1 1624 1787 49.5% 24.8% 25.8% +9.0 18
1940-03-24 @ Napoli L 1-3 1787 1624 25.8% 24.8% 49.5% -9.0 28
1940-03-24 Modena W 1-0 1692 1632 68.8% 22.6% 8.6% +2.1 23
1940-03-24 @ Roma L 0-1 1632 1692 8.6% 22.6% 68.8% -2.1 13
1940-03-24 Fiorentina W 2-1 1645 1596 68.1% 22.8% 9.1% +2.1 21
1940-03-24 @ Liguria L 1-2 1596 1645 9.1% 22.8% 68.1% -2.1 19
1940-03-24 Bari W 1-0 1700 1643 68.5% 22.7% 8.8% +2.1 24
1940-03-24 @ Triestina L 0-1 1643 1700 8.8% 22.7% 68.5% -2.1 21
1940-03-24 AC Milan L 0-2 1616 1694 58.4% 24.4% 17.2% -20.4 22
1940-03-24 @ Venezia W 2-0 1694 1616 17.2% 24.4% 58.4% +20.4 22
1940-03-31 Napoli W 3-0 1714 1633 70.0% 22.2% 7.8% +5.2 24
1940-03-31 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1633 1714 7.8% 22.2% 70.0% -5.1 18
1940-03-31 Bologna D 1-1 1640 1827 46.6% 24.7% 28.6% -0.7 22
1940-03-31 @ Bari D 1-1 1827 1640 28.6% 24.7% 46.6% +0.7 36
1940-03-31 Inter Milan L 0-3 1593 1800 44.1% 24.7% 31.2% -22.9 19
1940-03-31 @ Fiorentina W 3-0 1800 1593 31.2% 24.7% 44.1% +22.9 36
1940-03-31 Liguria W 2-0 1778 1647 72.6% 21.2% 6.1% +2.8 30
1940-03-31 @ Genova 1893 L 0-2 1647 1778 6.1% 21.2% 72.6% -2.8 21
1940-03-31 Venezia W 1-0 1758 1596 74.2% 20.6% 5.2% +1.2 29
1940-03-31 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1596 1758 5.2% 20.6% 74.2% -1.2 22
1940-03-31 Triestina W 2-1 1629 1702 58.9% 24.3% 16.8% +3.6 15
1940-03-31 @ Modena L 1-2 1702 1629 16.8% 24.3% 58.9% -3.6 24
1940-03-31 Juventus W 1-0 1690 1723 62.2% 24.0% 13.8% +3.2 25
1940-03-31 @ Novara L 0-1 1723 1690 13.8% 24.0% 62.2% -3.2 29
1940-03-31 Roma W 4-0 1734 1694 67.4% 23.0% 9.6% +8.3 27
1940-03-31 @ Torino L 0-4 1694 1734 9.6% 23.0% 67.4% -8.3 23
1940-04-21 Genova 1893 W 2-1 1822 1781 67.6% 22.9% 9.5% +2.2 38
1940-04-21 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1781 1822 9.5% 22.9% 67.6% -2.2 30
1940-04-21 Bologna W 1-0 1719 1827 55.5% 24.6% 19.9% +4.5 31
1940-04-21 @ Juventus L 0-1 1827 1719 19.9% 24.6% 55.5% -4.5 36
1940-04-21 Bari W 3-0 1633 1640 64.2% 23.6% 12.1% +7.9 17
1940-04-21 @ Modena L 0-3 1640 1633 12.1% 23.6% 64.2% -7.9 22
1940-04-21 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1628 1759 53.1% 24.7% 22.2% -1.3 19
1940-04-21 @ Napoli D 1-1 1759 1628 22.2% 24.7% 53.1% +1.3 30
1940-04-21 Fiorentina D 0-0 1686 1571 71.9% 21.6% 6.6% -3.3 24
1940-04-21 @ Roma D 0-0 1571 1686 6.6% 21.6% 71.9% +3.4 20
1940-04-21 AC Milan L 0-2 1645 1720 58.7% 24.4% 17.0% -20.5 21
1940-04-21 @ Liguria W 2-0 1720 1645 17.0% 24.4% 58.7% +20.5 26
1940-04-21 Torino D 2-2 1698 1742 61.4% 24.1% 14.5% -1.5 25
1940-04-21 @ Triestina D 2-2 1742 1698 14.5% 24.1% 61.4% +1.5 28
1940-04-21 Novara W 3-1 1595 1693 56.4% 24.5% 19.0% +7.0 24
1940-04-21 @ Venezia L 1-3 1693 1595 19.0% 24.5% 56.4% -7.0 25
1940-05-12 Inter Milan L 1-3 1740 1825 57.8% 24.4% 17.8% -17.5 26
1940-05-12 @ AC Milan W 3-1 1825 1740 17.8% 24.4% 57.8% +17.4 40
1940-05-12 Juventus W 2-1 1632 1724 57.1% 24.5% 18.4% +4.0 24
1940-05-12 @ Bari L 1-2 1724 1632 18.4% 24.5% 57.1% -4.0 31
1940-05-12 Venezia W 2-0 1823 1602 76.9% 19.2% 3.9% +1.7 38
1940-05-12 @ Bologna L 0-2 1602 1823 3.9% 19.2% 76.9% -1.7 24
1940-05-12 Triestina W 1-0 1574 1697 54.0% 24.7% 21.4% +4.7 22
1940-05-12 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1697 1574 21.4% 24.7% 54.0% -4.7 25
1940-05-12 Roma D 0-0 1778 1683 70.8% 21.9% 7.3% -3.2 31
1940-05-12 @ Genova 1893 D 0-0 1683 1778 7.3% 21.9% 70.8% +3.2 25
1940-05-12 Liguria D 2-2 1760 1624 72.9% 21.1% 6.0% -2.3 31
1940-05-12 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1624 1760 6.0% 21.1% 72.9% +2.3 22
1940-05-12 Napoli L 0-1 1686 1627 68.7% 22.6% 8.7% -12.6 25
1940-05-12 @ Novara W 1-0 1627 1686 8.7% 22.6% 68.7% +12.6 21
1940-05-12 Modena W 4-3 1743 1641 71.1% 21.8% 7.0% +1.5 30
1940-05-12 @ Torino L 3-4 1641 1743 7.0% 21.8% 71.1% -1.5 17
1940-05-19 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1842 1758 70.1% 22.2% 7.7% +6.6 42
1940-05-19 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1758 1842 7.7% 22.2% 70.1% -6.6 31
1940-05-19 Fiorentina W 3-0 1639 1579 68.8% 22.6% 8.6% +5.7 19
1940-05-19 @ Modena L 0-3 1579 1639 8.6% 22.6% 68.8% -5.7 22
1940-05-19 Bologna D 1-1 1639 1825 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% -0.7 22
1940-05-19 @ Napoli D 1-1 1825 1639 28.5% 24.7% 46.8% +0.7 39
1940-05-19 AC Milan W 3-1 1686 1723 62.0% 24.0% 14.0% +5.4 27
1940-05-19 @ Roma L 1-3 1723 1686 14.0% 24.0% 62.0% -5.4 26
1940-05-19 Novara W 1-0 1627 1673 61.1% 24.1% 14.8% +3.5 24
1940-05-19 @ Liguria L 0-1 1673 1627 14.8% 24.1% 61.1% -3.5 25
1940-05-19 Bari D 2-2 1745 1636 71.5% 21.7% 6.8% -2.2 31
1940-05-19 @ Torino D 2-2 1636 1745 6.8% 21.7% 71.5% +2.2 25
1940-05-19 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1692 1775 57.9% 24.4% 17.7% -10.7 25
1940-05-19 @ Triestina W 1-0 1775 1692 17.7% 24.4% 57.9% +10.7 33
1940-05-19 Juventus D 1-1 1600 1720 54.2% 24.6% 21.1% -1.4 25
1940-05-19 @ Venezia D 1-1 1720 1600 21.1% 24.6% 54.2% +1.4 32
1940-05-26 Triestina D 0-0 1717 1681 67.2% 23.0% 9.8% -2.9 27
1940-05-26 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1681 1717 9.8% 23.0% 67.2% +2.9 26
1940-05-26 Liguria W 2-0 1825 1630 75.8% 19.8% 4.5% +2.0 41
1940-05-26 @ Bologna L 0-2 1630 1825 4.5% 19.8% 75.8% -2.0 24
1940-05-26 Torino W 3-2 1573 1743 48.7% 24.8% 26.6% +5.0 24
1940-05-26 @ Fiorentina L 2-3 1743 1573 26.6% 24.8% 48.7% -5.1 31
1940-05-26 Modena L 0-3 1786 1645 73.2% 21.0% 5.8% -36.6 33
1940-05-26 @ Genova 1893 W 3-0 1645 1786 5.8% 21.0% 73.2% +36.6 21
1940-05-26 Napoli W 2-1 1721 1639 70.0% 22.2% 7.8% +1.8 34
1940-05-26 @ Juventus L 1-2 1639 1721 7.8% 22.2% 70.0% -1.8 22
1940-05-26 Roma W 1-0 1751 1691 68.7% 22.6% 8.7% +2.1 33
1940-05-26 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1691 1751 8.7% 22.6% 68.7% -2.1 27
1940-05-26 Inter Milan W 1-0 1670 1849 47.5% 24.7% 27.7% +5.8 27
1940-05-26 @ Novara L 0-1 1849 1670 27.7% 24.7% 47.5% -5.8 42
1940-05-26 Bari W 2-1 1598 1638 61.7% 24.0% 14.2% +3.1 27
1940-05-26 @ Venezia L 1-2 1638 1598 14.2% 24.0% 61.7% -3.2 25
1940-06-02 Fiorentina W 2-1 1635 1578 68.5% 22.7% 8.8% +2.0 27
1940-06-02 @ Bari L 1-2 1578 1635 8.8% 22.7% 68.5% -2.0 24
1940-06-02 Bologna W 1-0 1843 1827 65.8% 23.3% 10.8% +2.6 44
1940-06-02 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1827 1843 10.8% 23.3% 65.8% -2.6 41
1940-06-02 AC Milan D 2-2 1682 1714 62.3% 24.0% 13.8% -1.6 22
1940-06-02 @ Modena D 2-2 1714 1682 13.8% 24.0% 62.3% +1.6 28
1940-06-02 Venezia W 2-0 1637 1602 67.2% 23.0% 9.8% +4.5 24
1940-06-02 @ Napoli L 0-2 1602 1637 9.8% 23.0% 67.2% -4.4 27
1940-06-02 Novara W 3-1 1689 1676 65.7% 23.4% 10.9% +4.3 29
1940-06-02 @ Roma L 1-3 1676 1689 10.9% 23.4% 65.7% -4.3 27
1940-06-02 Juventus L 0-2 1628 1723 56.8% 24.5% 18.7% -19.8 24
1940-06-02 @ Liguria W 2-0 1723 1628 18.7% 24.5% 56.8% +19.8 36
1940-06-02 Genova 1893 W 3-1 1738 1749 63.9% 23.7% 12.4% +4.8 33
1940-06-02 @ Torino L 1-3 1749 1738 12.4% 23.7% 63.9% -4.8 33
1940-06-02 Lazio Roma L 2-3 1684 1753 59.2% 24.3% 16.5% -9.8 26
1940-06-02 @ Triestina W 3-2 1753 1684 16.5% 24.3% 59.2% +9.8 35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1940-05-26 5.83% Modena 1645 3 @ Genova 1893 1786 0
2 1939-12-17 8.10% AC Milan 1715 3 @ Inter Milan 1789 0
3 1939-10-22 8.41% Bari 1669 1 @ Lazio Roma 1736 0
4 1940-02-18 8.71% Modena 1596 4 @ Venezia 1655 0
5 1940-05-12 8.72% Napoli 1627 1 @ Novara 1686 0
6 1939-10-01 8.74% Venezia 1665 2 @ Roma 1723 0
7 1940-02-25 8.90% Novara 1676 2 @ AC Milan 1731 0
8 1940-02-04 9.43% Triestina 1677 6 @ Juventus 1721 2
9 1940-01-21 9.49% Torino 1721 3 @ AC Milan 1763 1
10 1939-10-15 10.37% Juventus 1705 2 @ Torino 1729 1
11 1939-10-15 10.48% Lazio Roma 1713 2 @ AC Milan 1735 0
12 1940-01-28 11.03% Lazio Roma 1729 1 @ Torino 1741 0
13 1940-03-17 11.73% Juventus 1706 2 @ AC Milan 1705 1
14 1940-02-25 12.03% Bologna 1808 2 @ Genova 1893 1803 1
15 1939-10-08 12.93% Roma 1700 1 @ Napoli 1680 0
16 1939-12-03 13.54% AC Milan 1692 4 @ Napoli 1662 1
17 1940-02-04 15.16% Torino 1729 1 @ Novara 1677 0
18 1939-10-29 15.21% Bologna 1761 2 @ AC Milan 1708 0
19 1940-02-25 15.29% Lazio Roma 1729 5 @ Bari 1676 1
20 1939-11-05 15.41% Genova 1893 1745 6 @ Venezia 1690 2
21 1939-11-19 15.78% Inter Milan 1774 1 @ Torino 1714 0
22 1940-02-25 16.21% Inter Milan 1768 2 @ Roma 1702 1
23 1940-06-02 16.51% Lazio Roma 1753 3 @ Triestina 1684 2
24 1940-04-21 16.96% AC Milan 1720 2 @ Liguria 1645 0
25 1939-12-17 17.06% Torino 1710 2 @ Modena 1634 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-02-18 45.25 Modena 4 1596 8.71% @ Venezia 0 1655 68.67% 22.63%
2 1940-05-26 36.58 Modena 3 1645 5.83% @ Genova 1893 0 1786 73.15% 21.02%
3 1939-12-17 35.04 AC Milan 3 1715 8.10% @ Inter Milan 0 1789 69.54% 22.36%
4 1940-02-25 33.35 Lazio Roma 5 1729 15.29% @ Bari 1 1676 60.53% 24.19%
5 1940-02-04 31.56 Triestina 6 1677 9.43% @ Juventus 2 1721 67.67% 22.90%
6 1939-11-05 28.24 Genova 1893 6 1745 15.41% @ Venezia 2 1690 60.39% 24.20%
7 1939-12-03 26.68 AC Milan 4 1692 13.54% @ Napoli 1 1662 62.54% 23.93%
8 1939-10-01 23.84 Venezia 2 1665 8.74% @ Roma 0 1723 68.62% 22.64%
9 1940-02-25 23.76 Novara 2 1676 8.90% @ AC Milan 0 1731 68.39% 22.70%
10 1939-10-15 23.06 Lazio Roma 2 1713 10.48% @ AC Milan 0 1735 66.28% 23.24%
11 1940-03-31 22.89 Inter Milan 3 1800 31.21% @ Fiorentina 0 1593 44.10% 24.69%
12 1940-01-07 22.15 Genova 1893 4 1765 23.71% @ Modena 1 1621 51.57% 24.72%
13 1939-10-29 21.12 Bologna 2 1761 15.21% @ AC Milan 0 1708 60.62% 24.18%
14 1940-04-21 20.46 AC Milan 2 1720 16.96% @ Liguria 0 1645 58.67% 24.37%
15 1939-10-08 20.38 Inter Milan 2 1763 17.18% @ Liguria 0 1686 58.43% 24.39%
16 1940-03-24 20.36 AC Milan 2 1694 17.21% @ Venezia 0 1616 58.39% 24.40%
17 1940-01-21 20.35 Torino 3 1721 9.49% @ AC Milan 1 1763 67.59% 22.92%
18 1940-01-28 19.87 Bologna 2 1790 18.55% @ Triestina 0 1697 56.95% 24.50%
19 1940-06-02 19.81 Juventus 2 1723 18.71% @ Liguria 0 1628 56.78% 24.52%
20 1940-05-12 17.45 Inter Milan 3 1825 17.79% @ AC Milan 1 1740 57.77% 24.45%
21 1939-11-19 15.07 @ Fiorentina 4 1577 56.93% Liguria 0 1671 18.56% 24.51%
22 1939-10-15 13.23 @ Bari 3 1656 53.44% Inter Milan 0 1784 21.88% 24.68%
23 1939-10-22 12.72 Bari 1 1669 8.41% @ Lazio Roma 0 1736 69.08% 22.50%
24 1940-05-12 12.65 Napoli 1 1627 8.72% @ Novara 0 1686 68.65% 22.63%
25 1940-01-28 12.11 Lazio Roma 1 1729 11.03% @ Torino 0 1741 65.58% 23.39%