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2014 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Stjarnan

52 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

12 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Stjarnan

13.29 points above expected

52 points · 38.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

8.99 points below expected

12 points · 20.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Stjarnan Champion 22 15 7 0 52 42 21 +21 38.71 +13.29
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 15 6 1 51 46 17 +29 44.82 +6.18
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43 40 24 +16 37.77 +5.23
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 9 3 10 30 25 29 -4 26.79 +3.21
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28 31 36 -5 31.90 -3.90
6 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28 34 40 -6 27.70 +0.30
7 Breidablik 22 5 12 5 27 36 33 +3 31.32 -4.32
8 Keflavik IF 22 6 7 9 25 29 32 -3 27.82 -2.82
9 Fjolnir 22 5 8 9 23 33 36 -3 25.33 -2.33
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 5 7 10 22 28 38 -10 26.60 -4.60
11 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 22 6 3 13 21 30 48 -18 21.70 -0.70
12 Thor Akureyri Relegated 22 3 3 16 12 24 44 -20 20.99 -8.99

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1610 51 44.82 +6.18 88.4% 24 35 41 45 49 54 63
Stjarnan 1567 52 38.71 +13.29 99.3% 18 29 35 39 43 48 59
KR Reykjavik 1527 43 37.77 +5.23 83.5% 14 28 34 38 42 47 60
Breidablik 1402 27 31.32 -4.32 25.6% 12 22 27 31 35 41 56
Fylkir Reykjavik 1326 28 27.70 +0.30 55.5% 9 18 24 28 32 38 51
Fjolnir 1319 23 25.33 -2.33 38.0% 7 16 21 25 29 35 49
Valur Reykjavik 1314 28 31.90 -3.90 28.8% 13 22 28 32 36 42 54
Keflavik IF 1309 25 27.82 -2.82 35.4% 8 18 24 28 32 38 49
Vikingur Reykjavik 1280 30 26.79 +3.21 74.4% 7 17 23 27 31 36 48
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1225 22 26.60 -4.60 24.4% 6 17 23 26 30 36 50
Fram Reykjavik 1223 21 21.70 -0.70 49.4% 4 13 18 22 25 31 45
Thor Akureyri 1186 12 20.99 -8.99 5.0% 4 13 17 21 24 30 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR FR IV KR KI STJ TA VR VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
1.74
0-2-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.99
0-2-0
3.33
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
3.00
0-2-0
1.97
1-0-1
3.89
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.03
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
3.73
 —
2-0-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.10
1-1-0
4.30
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.46
1-1-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.25
Fjolnir
0-2-0
2.40
0-0-2
1.28
 —
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
1.81
0-2-0
2.56
0-1-1
1.41
2-0-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.46
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
1.11
1-0-1
2.44
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.06
0-0-2
1.32
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.45
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.46
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
3.27
 —
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.92
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.99
1-0-1
3.55
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.22
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.24
0-0-2
3.00
 —
0-1-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.62
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.08
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
3.96
 —
2-0-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
4.36
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.85
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.46
0-1-1
1.41
0-2-0
2.89
0-1-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.15
 —
0-1-1
1.70
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.85
Stjarnan
0-2-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.01
1-1-0
4.09
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.44
2-0-0
2.79
1-1-0
3.80
 —
2-0-0
4.17
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.90
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
1.60
0-1-1
0.88
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
1.17
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.35
 —
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.90
0-0-2
1.42
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.85
 —
0-1-1
3.17
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
3.00
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
1.58
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
2.30
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +15.8
Allowed 0.82 -12.0
Differential 0.91 +7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.27%7.20%6.82%2.65%1.52%—20.45%
17.20%16.67%7.95%2.27%2.65%—36.74%
26.82%7.95%4.55%2.27%1.89%0.38%23.86%
32.65%2.27%2.27%1.52%1.14%0.38%10.23%
41.52%2.65%1.89%1.14%0.76%—7.95%
5+——0.38%0.38%——0.76%
Total20.45%36.74%23.86%10.23%7.95%0.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.67
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
1—36.36%4.55%———40.91%
2—4.55%13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
39.09%—4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%50.00%31.82%—9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.50 +0.14
SD 1.18 1.01 1.42
CV 0.72 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
118.18%22.73%4.55%———45.45%
213.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
49.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
5+———————
Total45.45%31.82%22.73%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 0.77 +1.32
SD 1.23 0.81 1.36
CV 0.59 1.05 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%——4.55%—22.73%
1—22.73%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%50.00%13.64%4.55%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.64 -0.14
SD 1.22 1.33 1.78
CV 0.82 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%9.09%9.09%—27.27%
19.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
24.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
5+———————
Total13.64%18.18%27.27%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.18 -0.82
SD 1.33 1.40 1.94
CV 0.97 0.64 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
29.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
3—9.09%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%45.45%9.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.82 -0.27
SD 1.22 1.47 1.91
CV 0.79 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%9.09%——22.73%
1—22.73%9.09%9.09%——40.91%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%27.27%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.73 -0.45
SD 1.03 0.98 1.50
CV 0.81 0.57 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
118.18%13.64%9.09%———40.91%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
3——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+———————
Total31.82%36.36%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.09 +0.73
SD 1.22 0.97 1.49
CV 0.67 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
14.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
213.64%—4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%31.82%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.45 -0.14
SD 1.21 1.18 1.46
CV 0.92 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
29.09%31.82%13.64%———54.55%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total31.82%45.45%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.95 +0.95
SD 1.02 0.84 0.95
CV 0.53 0.88 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%18.18%———36.36%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%13.64%—36.36%
29.09%——9.09%——18.18%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total13.64%22.73%31.82%13.64%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.00 -0.91
SD 1.23 1.31 1.60
CV 1.13 0.65 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%18.18%—9.09%—50.00%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%27.27%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.64 -0.23
SD 1.26 1.22 1.66
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
113.64%9.09%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
2—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.32 -0.18
SD 1.04 1.09 1.56
CV 0.91 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 52 38.71 +13.29
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 51 44.82 +6.18
3 KR Reykjavik 43 37.77 +5.23
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 30 26.79 +3.21
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 28 27.70 +0.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 12 20.99 -8.99
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 26.60 -4.60
3 Breidablik 27 31.32 -4.32
4 Valur Reykjavik 28 31.90 -3.90
5 Keflavik IF 25 27.82 -2.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 9 – Jun 22 1 in 42
2 Keflavik IF 3 May 4 – May 12 1 in 31
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 2 – Jul 20 1 in 24
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Aug 6 – Aug 11 1 in 17
5 Stjarnan 4 Jul 20 – Aug 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 27 – Sep 21 1 in 227
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 8 – May 22 1 in 48
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 27 1 in 34
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Sep 18 – Oct 4 1 in 21
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 19 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 22 May 4 – Oct 4 1 in 544
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 21 May 5 – Sep 28 1 in 37
3 Breidablik 8 Jul 27 – Sep 21 1 in 34
4 Fjolnir 6 May 4 – Jun 1 1 in 19
5 Keflavik IF 5 May 22 – Jun 22 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 11 Jul 2 – Sep 21 1 in 93
2 Breidablik 9 May 5 – Jun 22 1 in 74
3 Fjolnir 10 May 11 – Jul 21 1 in 41
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 May 4 – Jun 22 1 in 31
5 Thor Akureyri 9 Jul 20 – Sep 21 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Stjarnan16.78%31.53%21.86%12.62%7.24%4.32%2.67%1.62%0.80%0.35%0.19%0.02%
FH Hafnarfjordur64.62%20.97%8.28%3.54%1.48%0.68%0.32%0.06%0.05%———
KR Reykjavik12.83%26.17%25.25%14.10%8.79%5.78%3.16%1.93%1.01%0.63%0.26%0.09%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.37%1.38%3.65%6.88%9.25%11.42%12.86%13.46%12.87%11.32%9.79%6.75%
Valur Reykjavik2.30%7.10%12.05%16.70%15.55%13.17%10.54%8.47%6.14%4.21%2.71%1.06%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.42%2.08%5.03%8.00%11.33%11.63%13.05%12.36%11.50%10.94%8.26%5.40%
Breidablik1.70%6.21%11.88%15.97%15.61%14.12%11.06%8.28%6.28%4.63%2.75%1.51%
Keflavik IF0.50%2.09%5.50%8.51%11.19%12.15%12.96%12.17%11.97%10.04%8.03%4.89%
Fjolnir0.20%0.92%2.32%4.91%6.99%8.76%11.04%13.08%14.44%14.39%13.17%9.78%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.26%1.33%3.41%6.29%8.40%10.82%11.49%13.97%12.85%12.84%10.52%7.82%
Fram Reykjavik0.01%0.10%0.50%1.51%2.50%4.14%6.07%7.80%11.45%14.97%21.93%29.02%
Thor Akureyri0.01%0.12%0.27%0.97%1.67%3.01%4.78%6.80%10.64%15.68%22.39%33.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.58%
Slight Edge
40.91%25.76%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 26.37 Elo pts.
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
Stjarnan, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.59 * Some Luck: 4.59 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.18 * Wild Swing: 9.18 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.24 * Off: 2.24 to 2.99 * Way Off: 2.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.93 * A Surprise: 0.93 to 1.49 * Several Surprises: 1.49 to 2.05 * Many Surprises: 2.05 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.79 points
Some Luck
05.7414
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.874
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.30%
Stjarnan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.96%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.74
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
92%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.26
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.129
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 100% —
Stjarnan 99.79% 0.21%
KR Reykjavik 99.65% 0.35%
Valur Reykjavik 96.23% 3.77%
Breidablik 95.74% 4.26%
Keflavik IF 87.08% 12.92%
Fylkir Reykjavik 86.34% 13.66%
Vikingur Reykjavik 83.46% 16.54%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 81.66% 18.34%
Fjolnir 77.05% 22.95%
Fram Reykjavik 49.05% 50.95%
Thor Akureyri 43.95% 56.05%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2014-05-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1398 1357 45.5% 27.1% 27.4% +12.8 3
2014-05-04 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1357 1398 27.4% 27.1% 45.5% -12.8 0
2014-05-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1294 1353 31.8% 27.3% 41.0% +0.8 1
2014-05-04 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1353 1294 41.0% 27.3% 31.8% -0.8 1
2014-05-04 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1305 1301 40.7% 27.3% 32.0% +23.6 3
2014-05-04 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1301 1305 32.0% 27.3% 40.7% -23.6 0
2014-05-04 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1430 1396 44.7% 27.1% 28.2% -17.5 0
2014-05-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1396 1430 28.2% 27.1% 44.7% +17.6 3
2014-05-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1291 1293 39.9% 27.3% 32.9% +40.3 3
2014-05-04 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 1293 1291 32.9% 27.3% 39.9% -40.3 0
2014-05-05 Breidablik D 1-1 1471 1397 49.6% 26.7% 23.6% -2.3 1
2014-05-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1397 1471 23.6% 26.7% 49.6% +2.3 1
2014-05-08 Fjolnir L 1-2 1277 1332 32.4% 27.3% 40.3% -13.7 0
2014-05-08 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1332 1277 40.3% 27.3% 32.4% +13.8 6
2014-05-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1253 1295 34.1% 27.3% 38.6% +15.6 3
2014-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1295 1253 38.6% 27.3% 34.1% -15.6 1
2014-05-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1469 1345 55.2% 26.0% 18.8% +25.7 4
2014-05-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1345 1469 18.8% 26.0% 55.2% -25.7 0
2014-05-08 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1413 1329 50.9% 26.6% 22.5% -20.8 3
2014-05-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1329 1413 22.5% 26.6% 50.9% +20.8 6
2014-05-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1399 1413 38.2% 27.3% 34.5% -15.5 1
2014-05-08 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1413 1399 34.5% 27.3% 38.2% +15.5 3
2014-05-08 Stjarnan L 1-2 1353 1411 31.9% 27.3% 40.8% -13.6 1
2014-05-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1411 1353 40.8% 27.3% 31.9% +13.6 6
2014-05-11 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1345 1393 33.4% 27.3% 39.3% +0.5 7
2014-05-11 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1393 1345 39.3% 27.3% 33.4% -0.5 4
2014-05-12 Breidablik W 2-0 1350 1384 35.2% 27.3% 37.4% +30.6 9
2014-05-12 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1384 1350 37.4% 27.3% 35.2% -30.6 1
2014-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1428 1494 30.9% 27.2% 41.9% -14.1 3
2014-05-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1494 1428 41.9% 27.2% 30.9% +14.0 7
2014-05-12 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1339 1319 42.8% 27.2% 30.0% -29.4 1
2014-05-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1319 1339 30.0% 27.2% 42.8% +29.4 3
2014-05-12 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1279 1263 42.3% 27.2% 30.5% +13.9 4
2014-05-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1263 1279 30.5% 27.2% 42.3% -13.9 0
2014-05-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1425 1268 58.5% 25.4% 16.1% -4.4 7
2014-05-12 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1268 1425 16.1% 25.4% 58.5% +4.4 4
2014-05-18 Fjolnir D 2-2 1353 1346 41.1% 27.3% 31.7% -0.6 2
2014-05-18 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1346 1353 31.7% 27.3% 41.1% +0.6 8
2014-05-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1508 1310 62.3% 24.4% 13.2% +6.8 10
2014-05-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1310 1508 13.2% 24.4% 62.3% -6.8 1
2014-05-18 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1380 1414 35.2% 27.3% 37.4% -15.5 9
2014-05-18 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1414 1380 37.4% 27.3% 35.2% +15.5 6
2014-05-18 Stjarnan L 3-4 1249 1420 19.3% 26.1% 54.6% -8.4 0
2014-05-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-3 1420 1249 54.6% 26.1% 19.3% +8.4 10
2014-05-19 Fram Reykjavik W 5-3 1392 1293 52.5% 26.4% 21.1% +14.3 7
2014-05-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-5 1293 1392 21.1% 26.4% 52.5% -14.3 4
2014-05-19 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1273 1348 29.6% 27.2% 43.2% -12.8 4
2014-05-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1348 1273 43.2% 27.2% 29.6% +12.8 6
2014-05-22 Breidablik D 1-1 1279 1352 29.9% 27.2% 42.9% +1.1 5
2014-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1352 1279 42.9% 27.2% 29.9% -1.1 3
2014-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1365 1515 21.2% 26.4% 52.4% +2.8 10
2014-05-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1515 1365 52.4% 26.4% 21.2% -2.8 11
2014-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-2 1241 1361 24.4% 26.8% 48.8% +40.1 3
2014-05-22 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-5 1361 1241 48.8% 26.8% 24.4% -40.1 6
2014-05-22 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1346 1430 28.7% 27.1% 44.2% +1.3 9
2014-05-22 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1430 1346 44.2% 27.1% 28.7% -1.3 7
2014-05-22 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1429 1406 43.1% 27.2% 29.7% -1.1 11
2014-05-22 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1406 1429 29.7% 27.2% 43.1% +1.1 8
2014-05-22 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1303 1260 45.8% 27.0% 27.1% -17.9 1
2014-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1260 1303 27.1% 27.0% 45.8% +17.9 7
2014-06-01 Fjolnir D 1-1 1367 1348 42.8% 27.2% 30.0% -1.1 11
2014-06-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1348 1367 30.0% 27.2% 42.8% +1.1 10
2014-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1281 1285 39.5% 27.3% 33.2% -0.5 4
2014-06-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1285 1281 33.2% 27.3% 39.5% +0.5 2
2014-06-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1512 1278 65.3% 23.5% 11.2% +5.8 14
2014-06-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1278 1512 11.2% 23.5% 65.3% -5.8 7
2014-06-02 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1428 1280 57.7% 25.5% 16.8% +7.6 10
2014-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1280 1428 16.8% 25.5% 57.7% -7.6 5
2014-06-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1408 1321 51.1% 26.6% 22.3% +10.9 11
2014-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1321 1408 22.3% 26.6% 51.1% -10.9 6
2014-06-02 Stjarnan D 1-1 1351 1427 29.6% 27.2% 43.2% +1.2 4
2014-06-02 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1427 1351 43.2% 27.2% 29.6% -1.2 12
2014-06-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1272 1281 38.9% 27.3% 33.8% +13.5 10
2014-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1281 1272 33.8% 27.3% 38.9% -13.5 4
2014-06-09 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1286 1418 23.0% 26.6% 50.4% +1.8 3
2014-06-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1418 1286 50.4% 26.6% 23.0% -1.8 12
2014-06-10 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1272 1366 27.4% 27.1% 45.6% +1.6 6
2014-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1366 1272 45.6% 27.1% 27.4% -1.6 12
2014-06-11 Breidablik D 1-1 1310 1353 34.1% 27.3% 38.6% +0.4 7
2014-06-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1353 1310 38.6% 27.3% 34.1% -0.4 5
2014-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1349 1518 19.4% 26.1% 54.4% -9.7 10
2014-06-11 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1518 1349 54.4% 26.1% 19.4% +9.7 17
2014-06-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1426 1436 38.7% 27.3% 34.0% +14.2 15
2014-06-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1436 1426 34.0% 27.3% 38.7% -14.2 10
2014-06-15 Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1339 1274 48.6% 26.8% 24.6% -46.1 10
2014-06-15 @ Fjolnir W 4-1 1274 1339 24.6% 26.8% 48.6% +46.1 9
2014-06-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1422 1310 53.9% 26.2% 19.9% +9.9 13
2014-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1310 1422 19.9% 26.2% 53.9% -9.9 7
2014-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1352 1287 48.5% 26.8% 24.6% -2.1 6
2014-06-15 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1287 1352 24.6% 26.8% 48.5% +2.1 4
2014-06-15 Stjarnan D 2-2 1365 1441 29.6% 27.2% 43.2% +0.9 13
2014-06-15 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1441 1365 43.2% 27.2% 29.6% -0.9 16
2014-06-15 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1528 1267 67.2% 22.9% 9.9% -5.6 18
2014-06-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1267 1528 9.9% 22.9% 67.2% +5.6 5
2014-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1417 1285 56.0% 25.9% 18.1% -21.3 12
2014-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1285 1417 18.1% 25.9% 56.0% +21.3 13
2014-06-22 Breidablik W 1-0 1307 1350 33.9% 27.3% 38.8% +16.6 16
2014-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1350 1307 38.8% 27.3% 33.9% -16.6 6
2014-06-22 Fjolnir W 2-1 1440 1293 57.5% 25.6% 16.9% +8.1 19
2014-06-22 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1293 1440 16.9% 25.6% 57.5% -8.1 10
2014-06-22 Keflavik IF L 2-4 1301 1366 31.0% 27.2% 41.8% -20.6 7
2014-06-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-2 1366 1301 41.8% 27.2% 31.0% +20.6 16
2014-06-22 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1289 1432 22.0% 26.5% 51.4% -9.6 4
2014-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1432 1289 51.4% 26.5% 22.0% +9.6 16
2014-06-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1273 1395 24.1% 26.8% 49.1% -11.6 5
2014-06-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1395 1273 49.1% 26.8% 24.1% +11.6 15
2014-06-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1320 1522 16.7% 25.5% 57.8% -30.2 9
2014-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1522 1320 57.8% 25.5% 16.7% +30.3 21
2014-06-27 Stjarnan L 1-2 1290 1448 20.5% 26.3% 53.2% -9.5 9
2014-06-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1448 1290 53.2% 26.3% 20.5% +9.5 22
2014-06-27 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1553 1407 57.4% 25.6% 17.0% +8.1 24
2014-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1407 1553 17.0% 25.6% 57.4% -8.1 15
2014-07-02 Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1285 1280 40.8% 27.3% 32.0% -0.5 11
2014-07-02 @ Fjolnir D 3-3 1280 1285 32.0% 27.3% 40.8% +0.5 8
2014-07-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1386 1280 53.3% 26.3% 20.4% -20.4 16
2014-07-02 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1280 1386 20.4% 26.3% 53.3% +20.4 7
2014-07-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1333 1261 49.4% 26.7% 23.8% +10.3 9
2014-07-02 @ Breidablik L 2-3 1261 1333 23.8% 26.7% 49.4% -10.3 5
2014-07-02 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1441 1323 54.6% 26.1% 19.3% +18.2 19
2014-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1323 1441 19.3% 26.1% 54.6% -18.1 16
2014-07-10 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1251 1459 16.2% 25.4% 58.4% +44.3 8
2014-07-10 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1459 1251 58.4% 25.4% 16.2% -44.3 19
2014-07-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1457 1561 26.3% 27.0% 46.8% +1.3 23
2014-07-13 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1561 1457 46.8% 27.0% 26.3% -1.3 25
2014-07-13 Fjolnir W 4-2 1300 1285 42.2% 27.2% 30.6% +20.4 10
2014-07-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-4 1285 1300 30.6% 27.2% 42.2% -20.4 11
2014-07-14 Breidablik L 1-2 1399 1344 47.3% 26.9% 25.7% -18.4 15
2014-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1344 1399 25.7% 26.9% 47.3% +18.4 12
2014-07-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1280 1280 40.1% 27.3% 32.6% +27.6 11
2014-07-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1280 1280 32.6% 27.3% 40.1% -27.6 9
2014-07-14 Keflavik IF W 3-1 1305 1366 31.6% 27.3% 41.2% +28.5 19
2014-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1366 1305 41.2% 27.3% 31.6% -28.4 16
2014-07-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1380 1415 35.1% 27.3% 37.5% -35.8 15
2014-07-19 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1415 1380 37.5% 27.3% 35.1% +35.8 22
2014-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1321 1253 48.9% 26.8% 24.3% +22.0 13
2014-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1253 1321 24.3% 26.8% 48.9% -22.0 9
2014-07-20 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1295 1337 34.1% 27.3% 38.6% +0.4 9
2014-07-20 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1337 1295 38.6% 27.3% 34.1% -0.4 17
2014-07-20 Stjarnan L 1-3 1308 1459 21.2% 26.4% 52.4% -17.0 11
2014-07-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1459 1308 52.4% 26.4% 21.2% +17.0 26
2014-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1362 1559 17.1% 25.6% 57.3% -12.6 12
2014-07-21 @ Breidablik W 4-2 1559 1362 57.3% 25.6% 17.1% +12.6 28
2014-07-21 Fjolnir W 1-0 1334 1264 49.1% 26.8% 24.1% +11.6 22
2014-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1264 1334 24.1% 26.8% 49.1% -11.6 11
2014-07-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1451 1349 52.8% 26.4% 20.9% -2.9 23
2014-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1349 1451 20.9% 26.4% 52.8% +2.9 13
2014-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1291 1572 11.5% 23.7% 64.7% -11.2 11
2014-07-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1572 1291 64.7% 23.7% 11.5% +11.2 31
2014-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1476 1343 56.2% 25.8% 18.0% +17.1 29
2014-07-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1343 1476 18.0% 25.8% 56.2% -17.1 13
2014-07-27 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1253 1296 34.0% 27.3% 38.7% +38.4 14
2014-07-27 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 1296 1253 38.7% 27.3% 34.0% -38.4 9
2014-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1337 1345 39.0% 27.3% 33.7% -15.8 17
2014-07-27 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1345 1337 33.7% 27.3% 39.0% +15.8 18
2014-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1231 1345 25.0% 26.9% 48.2% -32.6 9
2014-07-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1345 1231 48.2% 26.9% 25.0% +32.6 25
2014-08-06 Fjolnir W 4-3 1360 1291 49.1% 26.8% 24.1% +10.1 21
2014-08-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-4 1291 1360 24.1% 26.8% 49.1% -10.1 14
2014-08-06 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1257 1198 47.8% 26.9% 25.3% -37.1 9
2014-08-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1198 1257 25.3% 26.9% 47.8% +37.1 12
2014-08-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1280 1326 33.6% 27.3% 39.1% +27.3 14
2014-08-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1326 1280 39.1% 27.3% 33.6% -27.3 13
2014-08-06 Keflavik IF D 4-4 1352 1321 44.3% 27.1% 28.6% -0.7 14
2014-08-06 @ Breidablik D 4-4 1321 1352 28.6% 27.1% 44.3% +0.7 18
2014-08-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1298 1583 11.3% 23.6% 65.1% +5.2 14
2014-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1583 1298 65.1% 23.6% 11.3% -5.2 32
2014-08-10 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1307 1378 30.3% 27.2% 42.5% +1.0 15
2014-08-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1378 1307 42.5% 27.2% 30.3% -1.0 26
2014-08-11 Breidablik D 1-1 1281 1352 30.3% 27.2% 42.5% +1.0 15
2014-08-11 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1352 1281 42.5% 27.2% 30.3% -1.0 15
2014-08-11 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1448 1322 55.4% 25.9% 18.6% +17.6 26
2014-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1322 1448 18.6% 25.9% 55.4% -17.6 18
2014-08-11 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1493 1220 68.1% 22.5% 9.4% +4.5 32
2014-08-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1220 1493 9.4% 22.5% 68.1% -4.5 9
2014-08-11 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1235 1371 22.7% 26.6% 50.7% +20.7 15
2014-08-11 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1371 1235 50.7% 26.6% 22.7% -20.7 21
2014-08-15 Stjarnan L 1-2 1350 1497 21.5% 26.5% 52.0% -9.9 21
2014-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1497 1350 52.0% 26.5% 21.5% +10.0 35
2014-08-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1351 1256 52.0% 26.5% 21.5% +28.9 18
2014-08-18 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1256 1351 21.5% 26.5% 52.0% -28.9 15
2014-08-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1377 1303 49.6% 26.7% 23.7% -19.1 26
2014-08-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1303 1377 23.7% 26.7% 49.6% +19.1 17
2014-08-18 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1308 1216 51.8% 26.5% 21.7% +24.5 18
2014-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 1216 1308 21.7% 26.5% 51.8% -24.5 9
2014-08-20 Fjolnir W 1-0 1466 1282 61.0% 24.8% 14.2% +7.3 29
2014-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1282 1466 14.2% 24.8% 61.0% -7.3 15
2014-08-20 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1578 1304 68.2% 22.5% 9.3% +9.0 35
2014-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1304 1578 9.3% 22.5% 68.2% -9.0 18
2014-08-24 Breidablik D 2-2 1507 1379 55.6% 25.9% 18.5% -2.5 36
2014-08-24 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1379 1507 18.5% 25.9% 55.6% +2.5 19
2014-08-24 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1322 1191 56.0% 25.9% 18.1% +17.2 20
2014-08-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1191 1322 18.1% 25.9% 56.0% -17.2 9
2014-08-24 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1333 1340 39.1% 27.3% 33.6% +28.2 21
2014-08-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1340 1333 33.6% 27.3% 39.1% -28.3 21
2014-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1358 1587 14.7% 24.9% 60.4% -6.7 26
2014-08-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1587 1358 60.4% 24.9% 14.7% +6.7 38
2014-08-25 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1275 1295 37.1% 27.3% 35.5% -0.1 16
2014-08-25 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1295 1275 35.5% 27.3% 37.1% +0.1 19
2014-08-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1227 1473 13.6% 24.6% 61.8% -6.6 15
2014-08-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1473 1227 61.8% 24.6% 13.6% +6.6 32
2014-08-31 Fjolnir W 4-0 1594 1274 71.3% 21.1% 7.5% +13.7 41
2014-08-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1274 1594 7.5% 21.1% 71.3% -13.7 16
2014-08-31 Fram Reykjavik L 2-4 1295 1220 49.8% 26.7% 23.5% -29.7 19
2014-08-31 @ Keflavik IF W 4-2 1220 1295 23.5% 26.7% 49.8% +29.7 18
2014-08-31 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1382 1361 42.9% 27.2% 29.9% -0.8 20
2014-08-31 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1361 1382 29.9% 27.2% 42.9% +0.8 22
2014-08-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1312 1340 36.1% 27.3% 36.6% +43.6 24
2014-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1340 1312 36.6% 27.3% 36.1% -43.6 20
2014-08-31 Stjarnan L 2-3 1479 1505 36.5% 27.3% 36.2% -14.2 32
2014-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1505 1479 36.2% 27.3% 36.5% +14.2 39
2014-08-31 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1174 1351 18.8% 26.0% 55.3% -9.4 9
2014-08-31 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1351 1174 55.3% 26.0% 18.8% +9.4 29
2014-09-14 Breidablik D 1-1 1296 1381 28.4% 27.1% 44.4% +1.4 21
2014-09-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1381 1296 44.4% 27.1% 28.4% -1.4 21
2014-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1164 1607 5.4% 19.0% 75.6% -5.0 9
2014-09-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1607 1164 75.6% 19.0% 5.4% +5.0 44
2014-09-14 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1519 1266 66.7% 23.1% 10.3% +10.0 42
2014-09-14 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1266 1519 10.3% 23.1% 66.7% -10.0 19
2014-09-14 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1362 1465 26.3% 27.0% 46.8% -44.4 22
2014-09-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1465 1362 46.8% 27.0% 26.3% +44.4 35
2014-09-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1360 1355 40.8% 27.3% 32.0% -0.7 30
2014-09-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1355 1360 32.0% 27.3% 40.8% +0.7 25
2014-09-15 Fjolnir L 1-3 1250 1261 38.6% 27.3% 34.1% -27.1 18
2014-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1261 1250 34.1% 27.3% 38.6% +27.1 19
2014-09-18 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1612 1510 52.9% 26.3% 20.7% -2.9 45
2014-09-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1510 1612 20.7% 26.3% 52.9% +2.9 36
2014-09-18 Stjarnan L 0-1 1360 1529 19.4% 26.1% 54.4% -9.7 30
2014-09-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1529 1360 54.4% 26.1% 19.4% +9.7 45
2014-09-21 Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1609 1223 75.4% 19.1% 5.5% +3.9 48
2014-09-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1223 1609 5.5% 19.1% 75.4% -3.9 18
2014-09-21 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1256 1317 31.4% 27.3% 41.3% -14.2 19
2014-09-21 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1317 1256 41.3% 27.3% 31.4% +14.2 25
2014-09-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-3 1512 1297 63.7% 24.1% 12.3% -3.0 37
2014-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 1297 1512 12.3% 24.1% 63.7% +3.0 22
2014-09-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1356 1159 62.1% 24.5% 13.4% +13.0 28
2014-09-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1159 1356 13.4% 24.5% 62.1% -13.0 9
2014-09-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1380 1350 44.1% 27.1% 28.8% +30.8 24
2014-09-21 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1350 1380 28.8% 27.1% 44.1% -30.8 30
2014-09-23 Stjarnan D 0-0 1288 1539 13.3% 24.5% 62.2% +5.2 20
2014-09-23 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1539 1288 62.2% 24.5% 13.3% -5.2 46
2014-09-28 Breidablik W 2-0 1146 1411 12.5% 24.1% 63.4% +47.7 12
2014-09-28 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1411 1146 63.4% 24.1% 12.5% -47.7 24
2014-09-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1369 1613 13.7% 24.6% 61.7% -16.3 28
2014-09-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1613 1369 61.7% 24.6% 13.7% +16.2 51
2014-09-28 Fjolnir W 2-1 1332 1293 45.2% 27.1% 27.7% +12.2 28
2014-09-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1293 1332 27.7% 27.1% 45.2% -12.2 20
2014-09-28 Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1533 1219 71.0% 21.3% 7.7% +14.0 49
2014-09-28 @ Stjarnan L 0-4 1219 1533 7.7% 21.3% 71.0% -14.0 18
2014-09-28 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1300 1242 47.8% 26.9% 25.3% -37.1 22
2014-09-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1242 1300 25.3% 26.9% 47.8% +37.1 22
2014-09-28 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1319 1509 17.6% 25.8% 56.6% -8.9 30
2014-09-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1509 1319 56.6% 25.8% 17.6% +8.9 40
2014-10-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-3 1205 1344 22.4% 26.6% 51.0% +18.2 21
2014-10-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-4 1344 1205 51.0% 26.6% 22.4% -18.2 28
2014-10-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1281 1263 42.5% 27.2% 30.3% +38.0 23
2014-10-04 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 1263 1281 30.3% 27.2% 42.5% -38.0 22
2014-10-04 Stjarnan L 1-2 1630 1547 50.6% 26.6% 22.8% -19.5 51
2014-10-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1547 1630 22.8% 26.6% 50.6% +19.5 52
2014-10-04 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1518 1194 71.6% 21.0% 7.4% +8.6 43
2014-10-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1194 1518 7.4% 21.0% 71.6% -8.6 12
2014-10-04 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1363 1353 41.5% 27.2% 31.3% +38.9 27
2014-10-04 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1353 1363 31.3% 27.2% 41.5% -38.9 28
2014-10-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1279 1310 35.6% 27.3% 37.1% +30.4 25
2014-10-04 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1310 1279 37.1% 27.3% 35.6% -30.4 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-09-28 12.48% @ Thor Akureyri 1146 2 Breidablik 1411 0
2 2014-07-10 16.19% @ Thor Akureyri 1251 2 KR Reykjavik 1459 0
3 2014-06-15 18.15% Vikingur Reykjavik 1285 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1417 1
4 2014-07-02 20.37% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1280 2 @ Keflavik IF 1386 1
5 2014-10-04 22.38% @ Fram Reykjavik 1205 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1344 3
6 2014-05-08 22.53% Keflavik IF 1329 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1413 0
7 2014-08-11 22.73% @ Fram Reykjavik 1235 1 Valur Reykjavik 1371 0
8 2014-10-04 22.77% Stjarnan 1547 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1630 1
9 2014-08-31 23.52% Fram Reykjavik 1220 4 @ Keflavik IF 1295 2
10 2014-08-18 23.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1377 1
11 2014-05-22 24.37% @ Thor Akureyri 1241 5 Fylkir Reykjavik 1361 2
12 2014-06-15 24.60% Fram Reykjavik 1274 4 @ Fjolnir 1339 1
13 2014-08-06 25.28% Fram Reykjavik 1198 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1257 0
14 2014-09-28 25.30% Keflavik IF 1242 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1300 0
15 2014-07-14 25.73% Breidablik 1344 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1399 1
16 2014-05-22 27.14% Vikingur Reykjavik 1260 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 1
17 2014-05-04 28.19% Valur Reykjavik 1396 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1430 1
18 2014-05-12 29.98% Fylkir Reykjavik 1319 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1339 1
19 2014-07-14 31.58% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1305 3 Keflavik IF 1366 1
20 2014-08-06 33.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1280 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1326 1
21 2014-07-27 33.70% Valur Reykjavik 1345 2 @ Keflavik IF 1337 1
22 2014-06-22 33.93% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1307 1 Breidablik 1350 0
23 2014-07-27 34.00% @ Fjolnir 1253 4 Thor Akureyri 1296 1
24 2014-05-08 34.06% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1253 2 Fram Reykjavik 1295 1
25 2014-09-15 34.12% Fjolnir 1261 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1250 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-09-28 47.68 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1146 12.48% Breidablik 0 1411 63.38% 24.14%
2 2014-06-15 46.06 Fram Reykjavik 4 1274 24.60% @ Fjolnir 1 1339 48.58% 26.82%
3 2014-09-14 44.37 KR Reykjavik 4 1465 46.78% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1362 26.26% 26.97%
4 2014-07-10 44.30 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1251 16.19% KR Reykjavik 0 1459 58.42% 25.39%
5 2014-08-31 43.64 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1312 36.10% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1340 36.57% 27.32%
6 2014-05-04 40.34 @ Fjolnir 3 1291 39.85% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1293 32.86% 27.29%
7 2014-05-22 40.07 @ Thor Akureyri 5 1241 24.37% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1361 48.83% 26.80%
8 2014-10-04 38.89 @ Breidablik 3 1363 41.46% Valur Reykjavik 0 1353 31.30% 27.24%
9 2014-07-27 38.37 @ Fjolnir 4 1253 34.00% Thor Akureyri 1 1296 38.69% 27.31%
10 2014-10-04 37.97 @ Fjolnir 3 1281 42.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1263 30.32% 27.21%
11 2014-08-06 37.13 Fram Reykjavik 2 1198 25.28% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1257 47.84% 26.88%
12 2014-09-28 37.11 Keflavik IF 2 1242 25.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1300 47.81% 26.88%
13 2014-07-19 35.75 KR Reykjavik 4 1415 37.53% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1380 35.15% 27.32%
14 2014-07-27 32.65 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1345 48.16% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1231 24.98% 26.86%
15 2014-09-21 30.75 @ Breidablik 4 1380 44.11% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1350 28.76% 27.13%
16 2014-05-12 30.57 @ Keflavik IF 2 1350 35.24% Breidablik 0 1384 37.43% 27.32%
17 2014-10-04 30.36 @ Keflavik IF 2 1279 35.58% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1310 37.09% 27.32%
18 2014-06-23 30.26 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1522 57.80% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1320 16.68% 25.52%
19 2014-08-31 29.74 Fram Reykjavik 4 1220 23.52% @ Keflavik IF 2 1295 49.77% 26.71%
20 2014-05-12 29.36 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1319 29.98% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1339 42.83% 27.19%
21 2014-08-18 28.88 @ Breidablik 3 1351 52.05% Fram Reykjavik 0 1256 21.51% 26.45%
22 2014-07-14 28.46 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1305 31.58% Keflavik IF 1 1366 41.17% 27.25%
23 2014-08-24 28.26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1333 39.07% Valur Reykjavik 0 1340 33.63% 27.30%
24 2014-07-14 27.63 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1280 40.09% Fram Reykjavik 0 1280 32.63% 27.28%
25 2014-08-06 27.34 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1280 33.61% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1326 39.08% 27.30%