2013 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

52 points · 12th Title

Last Title: 2011.0

Relegated

IA Akranes

11 pts

Vikingur Olafsvik · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

11.34 points above expected

52 points · 40.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

12.36 points below expected

11 points · 23.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 22 17 1 4 52 50 27 +23 40.66 +11.34
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 14 5 3 47 47 22 +25 40.68 +6.32
3 Stjarnan 22 13 4 5 43 34 25 +9 36.45 +6.55
4 Breidablik 22 11 6 5 39 37 27 +10 34.21 +4.79
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 9 5 33 45 31 +14 32.88 +0.12
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 8 5 9 29 26 28 -2 34.80 -5.80
7 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 7 5 10 26 33 33 0 26.15 -0.15
8 Keflavik IF 22 7 3 12 24 33 47 -14 25.16 -1.16
9 Thor Akureyri 22 6 6 10 24 31 44 -13 24.16 -0.16
10 Fram Reykjavik 22 6 4 12 22 26 37 -11 26.66 -4.66
11 Vikingur Olafsvik Relegated 22 3 8 11 17 21 35 -14 21.23 -4.23
12 IA Akranes Relegated 22 3 2 17 11 29 56 -27 23.36 -12.36

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1458 47 40.68 +6.32 86.9% 17 31 37 41 45 50 62
KR Reykjavik 1404 52 40.66 +11.34 97.9% 18 31 37 41 45 50 61
Stjarnan 1354 43 36.45 +6.55 87.8% 8 26 32 37 41 46 57
Breidablik 1351 39 34.21 +4.79 80.2% 11 24 30 34 38 44 55
Valur Reykjavik 1349 33 32.88 +0.12 54.3% 12 23 29 33 37 43 54
Fylkir Reykjavik 1286 26 26.15 -0.15 52.9% 4 17 22 26 30 36 49
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1284 29 34.80 -5.80 19.2% 12 25 31 35 39 45 57
Keflavik IF 1214 24 25.16 -1.16 46.6% 2 16 21 25 29 35 51
Thor Akureyri 1207 24 24.16 -0.16 52.8% 5 15 20 24 28 34 50
Fram Reykjavik 1193 22 26.66 -4.66 25.0% 8 17 22 27 31 37 48
Vikingur Olafsvik 1169 17 21.23 -4.23 26.1% 3 12 17 21 25 31 46
IA Akranes 1128 11 23.36 -12.36 1.3% 3 14 19 23 27 33 45

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR IA IV KR KI STJ TA VR VO
Breidablik
0-1-1
2.20
0-1-1
3.55
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.67
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
1.95
2-0-0
3.72
1-0-1
2.61
2-0-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.95
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.94
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
4.03
0-2-0
3.52
1-1-0
4.35
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.00
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
1.54
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
3.39
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.60
1-1-0
2.43
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-2
2.14
0-0-2
1.46
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
1.97
0-1-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.16
1-1-0
3.13
IA Akranes
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.44
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
1.88
1-0-1
1.22
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
1.75
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
3.02
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.29
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
3.40
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
3.64
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
3.63
0-1-1
2.91
0-2-0
3.93
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.60
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
4.03
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
4.38
2-0-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.74
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
4.48
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
1.91
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
2.94
1-0-1
1.96
2-0-0
2.96
Stjarnan
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.33
2-0-0
3.59
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
3.81
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.58
2-0-0
3.82
1-1-0
3.98
0-2-0
2.96
1-1-0
3.92
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
1.55
0-1-1
2.59
1-1-0
2.31
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
1.92
0-0-2
1.56
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
1.59
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
2.94
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.72
0-2-0
2.03
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
3.29
1-1-0
2.63
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-1
3.59
0-2-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.64
1-1-0
3.84
Vikingur Olafsvik
0-1-1
1.61
0-1-1
1.25
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.52
0-2-0
1.63
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
1.65
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
1.72

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.65 +11.2
Allowed 0.66 -10.0
Differential 0.90 +7.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%7.58%3.79%2.27%1.89%0.76%20.08%
17.58%12.88%8.33%6.06%2.65%37.50%
23.79%8.33%4.55%2.65%1.14%0.38%20.83%
32.27%6.06%2.65%0.76%0.38%0.38%12.50%
41.89%2.65%1.14%0.38%0.76%6.82%
5+0.76%0.38%0.38%0.76%2.27%
Total20.08%37.50%20.83%12.50%6.82%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.83
CV 0.82 0.82
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total27.27%45.45%13.64%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.23 +0.45
SD 1.17 1.19 1.65
CV 0.70 0.97
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
113.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
413.64%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total45.45%27.27%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.00 +1.14
SD 1.39 1.20 1.81
CV 0.65 1.20
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%18.18%9.09%31.82%
218.18%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total4.55%54.55%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.68 -0.50
SD 1.10 1.09 1.54
CV 0.93 0.65
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%22.73%
19.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%50.00%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.14 1.77
CV 0.79 0.76
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total4.55%36.36%13.64%18.18%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.55 -1.23
SD 1.25 1.79 1.66
CV 0.95 0.70
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
122.73%18.18%13.64%9.09%63.64%
24.55%4.55%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%36.36%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.27 -0.09
SD 1.01 1.12 1.48
CV 0.85 0.88
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
29.09%18.18%27.27%
39.09%18.18%4.55%31.82%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+
Total22.73%45.45%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.23 +1.05
SD 1.12 0.97 1.68
CV 0.49 0.79
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%31.82%
14.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%13.64%45.45%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.14 -0.64
SD 1.44 1.13 1.92
CV 0.96 0.53
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
122.73%18.18%13.64%54.55%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
313.64%13.64%27.27%
4
5+
Total27.27%40.91%27.27%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.14 +0.41
SD 1.01 0.99 1.40
CV 0.65 0.87
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%13.64%9.09%50.00%
29.09%13.64%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%36.36%18.18%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.00 -0.59
SD 1.01 1.35 1.74
CV 0.72 0.67
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
127.27%4.55%9.09%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.41 +0.64
SD 1.76 1.18 1.94
CV 0.86 0.84
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%45.45%
14.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.59 -0.64
SD 1.33 1.40 1.92
CV 1.39 0.88
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 52 40.66 +11.34
2 Stjarnan 43 36.45 +6.55
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 47 40.68 +6.32
4 Breidablik 39 34.21 +4.79
5 Valur Reykjavik 33 32.88 +0.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 11 23.36 -12.36
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 29 34.80 -5.80
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 26.66 -4.66
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 17 21.23 -4.23
5 Keflavik IF 24 25.16 -1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 21 – Aug 11 1 in 160
2 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 28 – Sep 16 1 in 56
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Aug 25 – Sep 16 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 3 Jun 10 – Jun 24 1 in 9
5 Stjarnan 3 May 27 – Jun 16 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 6 May 26 – Jul 3 1 in 125
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 21 – Aug 11 1 in 46
3 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 22 – Aug 7 1 in 29
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 May 26 – Jun 30 1 in 28
5 Vikingur Olafsvik 4 May 5 – May 20 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 12 May 27 – Aug 29 1 in 119
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 Jul 3 – Aug 19 1 in 52
3 Stjarnan 11 May 12 – Jul 28 1 in 52
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 Jun 30 – Jul 28 1 in 44
5 Valur Reykjavik 7 May 6 – Jun 18 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 11 May 6 – Jul 15 1 in 63
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 21 – Aug 22 1 in 39
3 Thor Akureyri 10 Jul 14 – Sep 18 1 in 27
4 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 11 – Sep 16 1 in 23
5 IA Akranes 8 Jul 29 – Sep 22 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KR Reykjavik33.90%24.99%16.23%10.36%6.72%3.93%2.02%0.99%0.53%0.18%0.12%0.03%
FH Hafnarfjordur34.78%24.24%16.04%10.27%6.36%4.07%2.17%1.00%0.62%0.26%0.12%0.07%
Stjarnan11.92%16.39%17.99%16.08%13.63%9.72%5.98%3.69%2.43%1.30%0.61%0.26%
Breidablik6.70%10.73%13.50%16.53%15.10%13.07%9.53%6.09%4.45%2.46%1.49%0.35%
Valur Reykjavik4.18%8.32%12.40%15.09%15.04%14.15%11.20%7.86%5.47%3.42%1.96%0.91%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar7.32%11.33%14.95%15.17%16.25%12.46%9.11%5.81%3.94%2.15%1.09%0.42%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.31%1.04%2.40%4.11%6.16%10.07%13.66%15.24%13.93%13.56%11.00%8.52%
Keflavik IF0.18%0.76%1.64%3.16%5.07%7.71%10.66%13.44%14.75%15.35%14.93%12.35%
Thor Akureyri0.17%0.50%1.04%2.16%4.20%6.18%9.21%12.87%14.69%16.42%16.93%15.63%
Fram Reykjavik0.41%1.21%2.67%4.44%7.10%10.22%13.44%13.99%13.69%13.96%10.93%7.94%
Vikingur Olafsvik0.03%0.13%0.35%0.88%1.50%3.28%5.42%8.08%11.87%14.88%21.53%32.05%
IA Akranes0.10%0.36%0.79%1.75%2.87%5.14%7.60%10.94%13.63%16.06%19.29%21.47%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.82%
Slight Edge
42.42%21.97%35.61%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.73 Elo pts.
171 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.08 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
KR Reykjavik, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.75 * Some Luck: 4.75 to 7.12 * Lucky: 7.12 to 9.49 * Wild Swing: 9.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.51 * Close: 1.51 to 2.27 * Off: 2.27 to 3.02 * Way Off: 3.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.06 * A Surprise: 1.06 to 1.69 * Several Surprises: 1.69 to 2.32 * Many Surprises: 2.32 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.20 points
Some Luck
05.9315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.894
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.89%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.33%
IA Akranes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.77
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
70%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.35
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.112
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 99.85% 0.15%
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.81% 0.19%
Stjarnan 99.13% 0.87%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 98.49% 1.51%
Breidablik 98.16% 1.84%
Valur Reykjavik 97.13% 2.87%
Fram Reykjavik 81.13% 18.87%
Fylkir Reykjavik 80.48% 19.52%
Keflavik IF 72.72% 27.28%
Thor Akureyri 67.44% 32.56%
IA Akranes 59.24% 40.76%
Vikingur Olafsvik 46.42% 53.58%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2013-05-05 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1212 1263 34.6% 23.3% 42.1% -8.1 0
2013-05-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1263 1212 42.1% 23.3% 34.6% +8.1 3
2013-05-05 IA Akranes W 1-0 1331 1263 50.8% 22.8% 26.5% +6.9 3
2013-05-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1263 1331 26.5% 22.8% 50.8% -6.9 0
2013-05-05 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1296 1236 49.7% 22.9% 27.5% +16.4 3
2013-05-05 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1236 1296 27.5% 22.9% 49.7% -16.3 0
2013-05-06 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1359 1266 53.7% 22.4% 23.8% +5.9 3
2013-05-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1266 1359 23.8% 22.4% 53.7% -5.9 0
2013-05-06 Stjarnan W 2-1 1327 1316 43.2% 23.2% 33.5% +7.9 3
2013-05-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1316 1327 33.5% 23.2% 43.2% -7.9 0
2013-05-06 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1250 1277 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% -8.6 0
2013-05-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1277 1250 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% +8.6 3
2013-05-12 Breidablik W 4-1 1338 1312 45.3% 23.1% 31.5% +18.3 6
2013-05-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1312 1338 31.5% 23.1% 45.3% -18.3 3
2013-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1220 1365 23.3% 22.4% 54.3% -16.9 0
2013-05-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1365 1220 54.3% 22.4% 23.3% +16.8 6
2013-05-12 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1261 1335 31.4% 23.1% 45.5% -14.9 0
2013-05-12 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1335 1261 45.5% 23.1% 31.4% +14.9 6
2013-05-12 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-2 1309 1204 55.1% 22.3% 22.6% +5.4 3
2013-05-12 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1204 1309 22.6% 22.3% 55.1% -5.4 0
2013-05-13 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1271 1241 45.7% 23.1% 31.1% -0.7 4
2013-05-13 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1241 1271 31.1% 23.1% 45.7% +0.7 1
2013-05-13 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1256 1286 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% -14.9 0
2013-05-13 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1286 1256 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% +14.9 6
2013-05-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1301 1270 46.0% 23.1% 30.9% -0.8 7
2013-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1270 1301 30.9% 23.1% 46.0% +0.8 5
2013-05-16 IA Akranes W 4-1 1294 1241 48.8% 22.9% 28.3% +16.8 6
2013-05-16 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1241 1294 28.3% 22.9% 48.8% -16.8 0
2013-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1382 1357 45.2% 23.2% 31.7% -0.7 7
2013-05-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1357 1382 31.7% 23.2% 45.2% +0.7 7
2013-05-16 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1199 1246 35.1% 23.3% 41.6% -14.1 0
2013-05-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1246 1199 41.6% 23.3% 35.1% +14.1 3
2013-05-16 Stjarnan L 0-1 1242 1314 31.8% 23.2% 45.1% -8.0 1
2013-05-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1314 1242 45.1% 23.2% 31.8% +8.0 6
2013-05-16 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1350 1203 59.8% 21.5% 18.7% +13.8 9
2013-05-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1203 1350 18.7% 21.5% 59.8% -13.8 0
2013-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1260 1234 45.2% 23.2% 31.6% -0.5 4
2013-05-20 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1234 1260 31.6% 23.2% 45.2% +0.5 2
2013-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1357 1364 40.8% 23.3% 35.9% -18.3 7
2013-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1364 1357 35.9% 23.3% 40.8% +18.3 12
2013-05-20 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1189 1185 42.3% 23.2% 34.4% +8.5 3
2013-05-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1185 1189 34.4% 23.2% 42.3% -8.5 0
2013-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1310 1381 31.9% 23.2% 44.9% -8.0 6
2013-05-21 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1381 1310 44.9% 23.2% 31.9% +8.0 10
2013-05-21 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1225 1271 35.2% 23.3% 41.5% +18.6 3
2013-05-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1271 1225 41.5% 23.3% 35.2% -18.6 5
2013-05-21 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1322 1300 44.7% 23.2% 32.1% -0.6 7
2013-05-21 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1300 1322 32.1% 23.2% 44.7% +0.6 8
2013-05-26 IA Akranes W 2-0 1389 1243 59.6% 21.5% 18.8% +9.6 13
2013-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1243 1389 18.8% 21.5% 59.6% -9.6 3
2013-05-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1176 1339 21.6% 22.1% 56.3% +2.0 1
2013-05-26 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1339 1176 56.3% 22.1% 21.6% -2.0 8
2013-05-26 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1301 1259 47.4% 23.0% 29.6% +27.0 11
2013-05-26 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1259 1301 29.6% 23.0% 47.4% -27.0 4
2013-05-26 Thor Akureyri L 1-4 1235 1198 46.8% 23.1% 30.1% -25.1 2
2013-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1198 1235 30.1% 23.1% 46.8% +25.1 6
2013-05-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1382 1302 52.2% 22.6% 25.2% -1.4 13
2013-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1302 1382 25.2% 22.6% 52.2% +1.4 7
2013-05-27 Stjarnan L 0-1 1252 1321 32.1% 23.2% 44.7% -8.1 5
2013-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1321 1252 44.7% 23.2% 32.1% +8.0 10
2013-06-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1337 1210 57.7% 21.9% 20.4% +8.9 11
2013-06-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1210 1337 20.4% 21.9% 57.7% -8.9 2
2013-06-09 Stjarnan L 1-3 1234 1329 28.8% 23.0% 48.2% -12.0 3
2013-06-09 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1329 1234 48.2% 23.0% 28.8% +12.0 13
2013-06-09 Valur Reykjavik L 3-5 1223 1328 27.7% 22.9% 49.5% -9.8 6
2013-06-09 @ Thor Akureyri W 5-3 1328 1223 49.5% 22.9% 27.7% +9.8 14
2013-06-10 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1232 1244 40.1% 23.3% 36.6% -9.0 4
2013-06-10 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1244 1232 36.6% 23.3% 40.1% +9.0 8
2013-06-10 KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1398 1381 44.2% 23.2% 32.6% -15.1 13
2013-06-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1381 1398 32.6% 23.2% 44.2% +15.1 16
2013-06-10 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1304 1178 57.5% 21.9% 20.6% +10.4 10
2013-06-10 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1178 1304 20.6% 21.9% 57.5% -10.4 1
2013-06-16 Breidablik L 0-1 1201 1314 26.7% 22.8% 50.5% -6.9 2
2013-06-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1314 1201 50.5% 22.8% 26.7% +6.9 13
2013-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1168 1383 17.0% 21.1% 61.9% -16.5 1
2013-06-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-0 1383 1168 61.9% 21.1% 17.0% +16.5 16
2013-06-16 IA Akranes W 4-2 1396 1222 62.5% 20.9% 16.6% +6.6 19
2013-06-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1222 1396 16.6% 20.9% 62.5% -6.6 3
2013-06-16 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1341 1223 56.7% 22.0% 21.3% +5.7 16
2013-06-16 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1223 1341 21.3% 22.0% 56.7% -5.7 4
2013-06-16 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1253 1213 47.2% 23.0% 29.8% +17.5 11
2013-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1213 1253 29.8% 23.0% 47.2% -17.5 6
2013-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1338 1346 40.6% 23.3% 36.1% -0.2 15
2013-06-18 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1346 1338 36.1% 23.3% 40.6% +0.2 12
2013-06-23 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1346 1271 51.7% 22.7% 25.6% +6.7 15
2013-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1271 1346 25.6% 22.7% 51.7% -6.7 11
2013-06-23 Stjarnan D 1-1 1195 1347 22.6% 22.3% 55.1% +1.7 7
2013-06-23 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1347 1195 55.1% 22.3% 22.6% -1.7 17
2013-06-23 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1402 1151 69.3% 19.0% 11.7% +3.0 22
2013-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1151 1402 11.7% 19.0% 69.3% -3.0 1
2013-06-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1400 1194 65.5% 20.2% 14.3% +3.7 19
2013-06-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1194 1400 14.3% 20.2% 65.5% -3.7 2
2013-06-24 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1215 1218 41.4% 23.3% 35.3% -8.8 3
2013-06-24 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1218 1215 35.3% 23.3% 41.4% +8.8 7
2013-06-24 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1321 1337 39.4% 23.3% 37.3% +9.1 16
2013-06-24 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1337 1321 37.3% 23.3% 39.4% -9.1 15
2013-06-30 Breidablik D 1-1 1264 1330 32.5% 23.2% 44.3% +0.6 12
2013-06-30 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1330 1264 44.3% 23.2% 32.5% -0.6 17
2013-06-30 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1328 1404 31.3% 23.1% 45.5% +0.7 16
2013-06-30 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1404 1328 45.5% 23.1% 31.3% -0.7 20
2013-06-30 IA Akranes W 1-0 1148 1206 33.6% 23.2% 43.2% +10.2 4
2013-06-30 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1206 1148 43.2% 23.2% 33.6% -10.2 3
2013-06-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1345 1353 40.7% 23.3% 36.0% +8.8 20
2013-06-30 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1353 1345 36.0% 23.3% 40.7% -8.8 15
2013-06-30 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1190 1405 17.0% 21.1% 61.9% -4.1 2
2013-06-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1405 1190 61.9% 21.1% 17.0% +4.1 25
2013-06-30 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1226 1197 45.8% 23.1% 31.1% -17.4 7
2013-06-30 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1197 1226 31.1% 23.1% 45.8% +17.4 10
2013-07-03 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1403 1264 58.9% 21.7% 19.4% +4.9 23
2013-07-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1264 1403 19.4% 21.7% 58.9% -4.9 12
2013-07-03 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1159 1186 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% +0.1 5
2013-07-03 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1186 1159 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% -0.0 3
2013-07-03 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1196 1214 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% -8.9 3
2013-07-03 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1214 1196 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% +8.9 13
2013-07-11 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1354 1408 34.2% 23.2% 42.6% +9.5 23
2013-07-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1408 1354 42.6% 23.2% 34.2% -9.5 23
2013-07-14 Breidablik L 1-2 1209 1330 25.9% 22.7% 51.4% -6.4 7
2013-07-14 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1330 1209 51.4% 22.7% 25.9% +6.4 20
2013-07-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1223 1344 25.9% 22.7% 51.4% -11.0 13
2013-07-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1344 1223 51.4% 22.7% 25.9% +11.0 18
2013-07-14 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1259 1410 22.8% 22.3% 54.9% +11.8 15
2013-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1410 1259 54.9% 22.3% 22.8% -11.8 25
2013-07-15 IA Akranes D 1-1 1186 1187 41.5% 23.3% 35.2% -0.3 4
2013-07-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1187 1186 35.2% 23.3% 41.5% +0.3 4
2013-07-15 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1329 1159 62.1% 21.0% 16.9% -2.7 17
2013-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1159 1329 16.9% 21.0% 62.1% +2.7 6
2013-07-20 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1203 1398 18.6% 21.5% 59.9% -18.0 7
2013-07-20 @ Keflavik IF W 4-0 1398 1203 59.9% 21.5% 18.6% +18.0 26
2013-07-21 Breidablik L 1-2 1212 1336 25.6% 22.7% 51.8% -6.3 13
2013-07-21 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1336 1212 51.8% 22.7% 25.6% +6.3 23
2013-07-21 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1326 1186 59.1% 21.6% 19.2% -21.8 17
2013-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1186 1326 19.2% 21.6% 59.1% +21.8 7
2013-07-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1188 1355 21.1% 22.0% 56.9% +12.1 7
2013-07-21 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1355 1188 56.9% 22.0% 21.1% -12.1 18
2013-07-21 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1364 1398 36.9% 23.3% 39.8% +15.6 26
2013-07-21 @ Stjarnan L 1-3 1398 1364 39.8% 23.3% 36.9% -15.6 25
2013-07-22 Vikingur Olafsvik L 3-4 1271 1161 55.8% 22.2% 22.1% -11.0 15
2013-07-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-3 1161 1271 22.1% 22.2% 55.8% +11.0 9
2013-07-27 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1416 1206 65.8% 20.1% 14.1% +3.8 29
2013-07-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1206 1416 14.1% 20.1% 65.8% -3.8 13
2013-07-28 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1207 1260 34.3% 23.2% 42.5% +27.5 10
2013-07-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1260 1207 42.5% 23.2% 34.3% -27.5 15
2013-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1342 1343 41.6% 23.3% 35.1% +14.1 26
2013-07-28 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1343 1342 35.1% 23.3% 41.6% -14.1 18
2013-07-28 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1382 1185 64.7% 20.4% 14.9% +11.1 28
2013-07-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1185 1382 14.9% 20.4% 64.7% -11.1 7
2013-07-28 Stjarnan D 1-1 1172 1379 17.7% 21.3% 61.0% +2.3 10
2013-07-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1379 1172 61.0% 21.3% 17.7% -2.3 27
2013-07-29 IA Akranes W 6-4 1305 1200 55.2% 22.3% 22.6% +8.0 20
2013-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 4-6 1200 1305 22.6% 22.3% 55.2% -8.0 7
2013-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1329 1420 29.3% 23.0% 47.7% -7.0 18
2013-08-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1420 1329 47.7% 23.0% 29.3% +7.0 32
2013-08-07 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1377 1235 59.3% 21.6% 19.1% -12.6 27
2013-08-07 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1235 1377 19.1% 21.6% 59.3% +12.6 13
2013-08-07 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1202 1393 19.0% 21.6% 59.4% -8.4 13
2013-08-07 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1393 1202 59.4% 21.6% 19.0% +8.4 31
2013-08-07 Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1233 1313 30.8% 23.1% 46.2% -27.8 15
2013-08-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1313 1233 46.2% 23.1% 30.8% +27.8 23
2013-08-07 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1174 1175 41.5% 23.3% 35.2% +16.3 10
2013-08-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1175 1174 35.2% 23.3% 41.5% -16.3 10
2013-08-11 Breidablik D 0-0 1427 1356 51.1% 22.7% 26.2% -1.4 33
2013-08-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1356 1427 26.2% 22.7% 51.1% +1.4 27
2013-08-11 IA Akranes W 1-0 1205 1192 43.5% 23.2% 33.2% +8.3 18
2013-08-11 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1192 1205 33.2% 23.2% 43.5% -8.3 7
2013-08-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1402 1322 52.2% 22.6% 25.1% +10.7 34
2013-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1322 1402 25.1% 22.6% 52.2% -10.7 18
2013-08-11 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1247 1190 49.5% 22.9% 27.7% +19.5 16
2013-08-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1190 1247 27.7% 22.9% 49.5% -19.5 10
2013-08-11 Stjarnan D 1-1 1340 1364 38.3% 23.3% 38.4% +0.0 24
2013-08-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1364 1340 38.4% 23.3% 38.3% +0.0 28
2013-08-11 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1158 1194 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.2 11
2013-08-11 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1194 1158 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.2 14
2013-08-18 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-6 1183 1426 15.1% 20.5% 64.5% -10.4 7
2013-08-18 @ IA Akranes W 6-2 1426 1183 64.5% 20.5% 15.1% +10.4 36
2013-08-18 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1170 1340 20.9% 22.0% 57.2% +24.4 13
2013-08-18 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1340 1170 57.2% 22.0% 20.9% -24.4 24
2013-08-18 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1311 1159 60.3% 21.4% 18.3% -2.2 19
2013-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1159 1311 18.3% 21.4% 60.3% +2.2 12
2013-08-19 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1194 1267 31.6% 23.1% 45.3% +0.5 15
2013-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1267 1194 45.3% 23.1% 31.6% -0.5 17
2013-08-22 Breidablik D 2-2 1173 1358 19.6% 21.7% 58.8% +1.5 8
2013-08-22 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1358 1173 58.8% 21.7% 19.6% -1.5 28
2013-08-22 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1364 1213 60.2% 21.4% 18.4% +4.4 31
2013-08-22 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1213 1364 18.4% 21.4% 60.2% -4.4 18
2013-08-22 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1309 1195 56.2% 22.1% 21.7% -1.8 20
2013-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1195 1309 21.7% 22.1% 56.2% +1.8 14
2013-08-25 Breidablik D 0-0 1161 1356 18.6% 21.5% 59.9% +2.5 13
2013-08-25 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1356 1161 59.9% 21.5% 18.6% -2.4 29
2013-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1412 1436 38.4% 23.3% 38.3% +15.1 37
2013-08-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1436 1412 38.3% 23.3% 38.4% -15.1 36
2013-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1266 1307 36.0% 23.3% 40.7% -8.8 17
2013-08-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1307 1266 40.7% 23.3% 36.0% +8.8 23
2013-08-25 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1316 1194 57.1% 22.0% 20.9% -1.4 25
2013-08-25 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1194 1316 20.9% 22.0% 57.1% +1.4 16
2013-08-26 IA Akranes W 1-0 1369 1175 64.4% 20.5% 15.1% +4.1 34
2013-08-26 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1175 1369 15.1% 20.5% 64.4% -4.1 8
2013-08-26 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1209 1197 43.4% 23.2% 33.4% -9.1 18
2013-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1197 1209 33.4% 23.2% 43.4% +9.1 17
2013-08-29 Stjarnan W 2-1 1354 1373 39.0% 23.3% 37.7% +8.6 32
2013-08-29 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1373 1354 37.7% 23.3% 39.0% -8.6 34
2013-08-29 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1428 1315 56.1% 22.1% 21.8% +9.5 40
2013-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1315 1428 21.8% 22.1% 56.1% -9.5 25
2013-09-01 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1196 1200 41.2% 23.3% 35.6% -0.3 17
2013-09-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1200 1196 35.6% 23.3% 41.2% +0.3 19
2013-09-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 1362 1258 55.2% 22.3% 22.6% -28.9 32
2013-09-01 @ Breidablik W 4-1 1258 1362 22.6% 22.3% 55.2% +28.9 20
2013-09-01 Stjarnan L 0-2 1206 1364 21.9% 22.2% 55.9% -11.0 17
2013-09-01 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1364 1206 55.9% 22.2% 21.9% +11.0 37
2013-09-01 Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 1421 1163 69.8% 18.8% 11.3% -2.4 37
2013-09-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1163 1421 11.3% 18.8% 69.8% +2.4 14
2013-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1287 1419 24.7% 22.6% 52.8% -6.5 20
2013-09-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1419 1287 52.8% 22.6% 24.7% +6.5 40
2013-09-12 IA Akranes W 5-4 1195 1171 45.1% 23.2% 31.8% +6.9 20
2013-09-12 @ Keflavik IF L 4-5 1171 1195 31.8% 23.2% 45.1% -6.9 8
2013-09-12 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1166 1437 13.2% 19.7% 67.0% -3.6 14
2013-09-12 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1437 1166 67.0% 19.7% 13.2% +3.6 43
2013-09-12 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1375 1195 63.1% 20.8% 16.1% +7.2 40
2013-09-12 @ Stjarnan L 1-3 1195 1375 16.1% 20.8% 63.1% -7.2 17
2013-09-13 Breidablik D 1-1 1305 1333 37.7% 23.3% 39.0% +0.1 26
2013-09-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1333 1305 39.0% 23.3% 37.7% -0.1 33
2013-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1200 1316 26.4% 22.8% 50.8% -6.9 19
2013-09-13 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1316 1200 50.8% 22.8% 26.4% +6.9 26
2013-09-16 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1333 1193 59.1% 21.6% 19.3% -12.6 33
2013-09-16 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1193 1333 19.3% 21.6% 59.1% +12.6 22
2013-09-16 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1441 1280 61.2% 21.2% 17.6% +11.0 46
2013-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1280 1441 17.6% 21.2% 61.2% -11.0 20
2013-09-16 Stjarnan W 1-0 1322 1382 33.3% 23.2% 43.5% +10.2 29
2013-09-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1382 1322 43.5% 23.2% 33.3% -10.2 40
2013-09-16 Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1425 1305 56.9% 22.0% 21.1% -1.2 41
2013-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1305 1425 21.1% 22.0% 56.9% +1.2 27
2013-09-18 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1188 1202 39.8% 23.3% 36.9% -0.1 18
2013-09-18 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1202 1188 36.9% 23.3% 39.8% +0.1 21
2013-09-18 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-5 1164 1162 41.9% 23.3% 34.8% -43.8 8
2013-09-18 @ IA Akranes W 5-0 1162 1164 34.8% 23.3% 41.9% +43.8 17
2013-09-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1321 1452 24.8% 22.6% 52.6% +32.9 36
2013-09-19 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1452 1321 52.6% 22.6% 24.8% -32.9 46
2013-09-19 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1333 1306 45.4% 23.1% 31.5% -20.0 29
2013-09-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1306 1333 31.5% 23.1% 45.4% +20.0 30
2013-09-22 Breidablik W 3-2 1372 1354 44.3% 23.2% 32.5% +7.3 43
2013-09-22 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1354 1372 32.5% 23.2% 44.3% -7.3 36
2013-09-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1206 1424 16.8% 21.0% 62.2% -8.6 22
2013-09-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1424 1206 62.2% 21.0% 16.8% +8.6 44
2013-09-22 IA Akranes W 1-0 1188 1120 50.8% 22.8% 26.5% +6.9 21
2013-09-22 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1120 1188 26.5% 22.8% 50.8% -6.9 8
2013-09-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1202 1313 27.0% 22.8% 50.2% +16.9 24
2013-09-22 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 1313 1202 50.2% 22.8% 27.0% -16.8 29
2013-09-22 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1326 1419 29.2% 23.0% 47.8% -7.0 30
2013-09-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1419 1326 47.8% 23.0% 29.2% +7.0 49
2013-09-22 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1269 1206 50.2% 22.8% 27.0% +6.6 23
2013-09-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1206 1269 27.0% 22.8% 50.2% -6.6 17
2013-09-25 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1113 1426 10.9% 18.6% 70.4% +25.4 11
2013-09-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1426 1113 70.4% 18.6% 10.9% -25.4 49
2013-09-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1400 1197 65.2% 20.2% 14.5% +3.7 52
2013-09-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1197 1400 14.5% 20.2% 65.2% -3.7 22
2013-09-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1138 1276 24.1% 22.5% 53.4% -10.4 11
2013-09-28 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1276 1138 53.4% 22.5% 24.1% +10.3 26
2013-09-28 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1346 1219 57.8% 21.9% 20.4% +4.9 39
2013-09-28 @ Breidablik L 2-3 1219 1346 20.4% 21.9% 57.8% -4.9 24
2013-09-28 Stjarnan W 4-0 1432 1379 48.9% 22.9% 28.2% +25.9 47
2013-09-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1379 1432 28.2% 22.9% 48.9% -25.9 43
2013-09-28 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1296 1195 54.7% 22.3% 22.9% -11.7 29
2013-09-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1195 1296 22.9% 22.3% 54.7% +11.7 24
2013-09-28 Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1199 1319 26.0% 22.7% 51.3% -29.8 17
2013-09-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-0 1319 1199 51.3% 22.7% 26.0% +29.8 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2013-09-25 10.94% @ IA Akranes 1113 3 KR Reykjavik 1426 1
2 2013-08-07 19.13% Fylkir Reykjavik 1235 2 @ Stjarnan 1377 1
3 2013-07-21 19.24% Fylkir Reykjavik 1186 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1326 1
4 2013-09-16 19.28% Fram Reykjavik 1193 2 @ Breidablik 1333 1
5 2013-08-18 20.86% @ Keflavik IF 1170 2 Valur Reykjavik 1340 0
6 2013-07-21 21.12% @ IA Akranes 1188 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1355 1
7 2013-07-22 22.07% Vikingur Olafsvik 1161 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1271 3
8 2013-09-01 22.58% Fylkir Reykjavik 1258 4 @ Breidablik 1362 1
9 2013-07-14 22.78% @ Fram Reykjavik 1259 2 KR Reykjavik 1410 1
10 2013-09-28 22.95% Thor Akureyri 1195 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1296 1
11 2013-09-19 24.79% @ Breidablik 1321 3 KR Reykjavik 1452 0
12 2013-09-22 26.97% @ Keflavik IF 1202 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1313 2
13 2013-05-26 30.15% Thor Akureyri 1198 4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1235 1
14 2013-06-30 31.13% Thor Akureyri 1197 3 @ Keflavik IF 1226 1
15 2013-09-19 31.51% Valur Reykjavik 1306 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1333 0
16 2013-06-10 32.64% KR Reykjavik 1381 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1398 2
17 2013-09-16 33.33% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1322 1 Stjarnan 1382 0
18 2013-08-26 33.36% Keflavik IF 1197 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1209 2
19 2013-06-30 33.61% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1148 1 IA Akranes 1206 0
20 2013-07-11 34.18% @ Stjarnan 1354 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1408 1
21 2013-07-28 34.28% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1207 3 Fram Reykjavik 1260 0
22 2013-09-18 34.79% Vikingur Olafsvik 1162 5 @ IA Akranes 1164 0
23 2013-05-21 35.22% @ IA Akranes 1225 2 Fram Reykjavik 1271 0
24 2013-06-24 35.34% Keflavik IF 1218 3 @ IA Akranes 1215 2
25 2013-05-20 35.93% KR Reykjavik 1364 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1357 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-09-18 43.80 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 1162 34.79% @ IA Akranes 0 1164 41.94% 23.26%
2 2013-09-19 32.93 @ Breidablik 3 1321 24.79% KR Reykjavik 0 1452 52.64% 22.57%
3 2013-09-28 29.81 Valur Reykjavik 5 1319 51.32% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1199 25.97% 22.71%
4 2013-09-01 28.95 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1258 22.58% @ Breidablik 1 1362 55.16% 22.26%
5 2013-08-07 27.83 Valur Reykjavik 4 1313 46.15% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1233 30.75% 23.10%
6 2013-07-28 27.48 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1207 34.28% Fram Reykjavik 0 1260 42.47% 23.25%
7 2013-05-26 26.97 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1301 47.38% Keflavik IF 0 1259 29.59% 23.03%
8 2013-09-28 25.93 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1432 48.86% Stjarnan 0 1379 28.21% 22.92%
9 2013-09-25 25.42 @ IA Akranes 3 1113 10.94% KR Reykjavik 1 1426 70.43% 18.63%
10 2013-05-26 25.09 Thor Akureyri 4 1198 30.15% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1235 46.79% 23.06%
11 2013-08-18 24.41 @ Keflavik IF 2 1170 20.86% Valur Reykjavik 0 1340 57.17% 21.97%
12 2013-07-21 21.79 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1186 19.24% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1326 59.13% 21.63%
13 2013-09-19 19.96 Valur Reykjavik 2 1306 31.51% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1333 45.35% 23.14%
14 2013-08-11 19.53 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1247 49.45% Keflavik IF 0 1190 27.67% 22.88%
15 2013-05-21 18.57 @ IA Akranes 2 1225 35.22% Fram Reykjavik 0 1271 41.51% 23.27%
16 2013-05-12 18.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1338 45.33% Breidablik 1 1312 31.53% 23.14%
17 2013-05-20 18.32 KR Reykjavik 2 1364 35.93% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1357 40.78% 23.28%
18 2013-07-20 17.95 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1398 59.91% @ Keflavik IF 0 1203 18.61% 21.48%
19 2013-06-16 17.50 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1253 47.19% Thor Akureyri 1 1213 29.77% 23.04%
20 2013-06-30 17.41 Thor Akureyri 3 1197 31.13% @ Keflavik IF 1 1226 45.75% 23.12%
21 2013-05-12 16.86 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1365 54.32% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1220 23.30% 22.37%
22 2013-09-22 16.86 @ Keflavik IF 4 1202 26.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1313 50.21% 22.81%
23 2013-05-16 16.79 @ Breidablik 4 1294 48.75% IA Akranes 1 1241 28.32% 22.93%
24 2013-06-16 16.51 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1383 61.89% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1168 17.03% 21.07%
25 2013-05-05 16.35 @ Breidablik 4 1296 49.69% Thor Akureyri 1 1236 27.45% 22.86%