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2002 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

36 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 2000.0

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

13 pts

Keflavik IF · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

9.25 points above expected

36 points · 26.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

8.93 points below expected

13 points · 21.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 10 6 2 36 32 18 +14 26.75 +9.25
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 10 4 4 34 30 22 +8 27.62 +6.38
3 Grindavik 18 8 5 5 29 32 26 +6 25.15 +3.85
4 KA Akureyri 18 6 7 5 25 18 19 -1 23.22 +1.78
5 IA Akranes 18 6 5 7 23 29 26 +3 24.90 -1.90
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 7 6 22 29 30 -1 23.07 -1.07
7 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 4 8 6 20 25 30 -5 21.64 -1.64
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 5 8 20 23 22 +1 24.46 -4.46
9 Fram Reykjavik 18 5 5 8 20 29 33 -4 22.05 -2.05
10 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 3 4 11 13 22 43 -21 21.93 -8.93

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1382 36 26.75 +9.25 96.8% 9 18 23 27 30 35 47
Fylkir Reykjavik 1346 34 27.62 +6.38 90.3% 10 19 24 28 31 36 47
IA Akranes 1330 23 24.90 -1.90 40.1% 7 16 21 25 28 34 44
Grindavik 1326 29 25.15 +3.85 79.6% 6 17 22 25 29 34 42
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1311 20 24.46 -4.46 23.1% 6 16 21 24 28 33 45
FH Hafnarfjordur 1282 22 23.07 -1.07 46.2% 6 15 19 23 27 32 44
Fram Reykjavik 1270 20 22.05 -2.05 39.4% 4 14 19 22 26 31 44
KA Akureyri 1262 25 23.22 +1.78 66.9% 7 15 20 23 27 32 44
Keflavik IF 1261 20 21.64 -1.64 42.2% 4 13 18 22 25 30 40
Thor Akureyri 1176 13 21.93 -8.93 4.7% 5 14 18 22 25 31 41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR KI TA
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.24
0-2-0
2.87
1-1-0
2.49
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.42
 —
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.11
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.63
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
3.23
 —
1-0-1
2.96
0-0-2
3.07
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
3.00
0-2-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.38
Grindavik
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.38
 —
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
3.23
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.75
0-1-1
3.08
2-0-0
2.28
0-0-2
2.77
 —
1-0-1
2.65
0-2-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.71
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.90
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.69
 —
0-2-0
2.87
1-1-0
2.25
0-0-2
3.05
1-1-0
2.86
KA Akureyri
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.54
0-2-0
2.47
 —
0-0-2
2.41
2-0-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.70
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.11
2-0-0
3.25
0-2-0
2.48
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.10
2-0-0
2.94
 —
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.30
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
2.48
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.51
2-0-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
2.27
 —
0-2-0
2.76
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.99
1-0-1
2.13
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
2.09
0-2-0
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.34 +8.7
Allowed 0.60 -7.3
Differential 0.83 +6.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%8.33%5.00%2.22%—0.56%20.56%
18.33%18.89%5.00%4.44%2.22%0.56%39.44%
25.00%5.00%5.56%2.78%1.67%1.11%21.11%
32.22%4.44%2.78%1.11%——10.56%
4—2.22%1.67%—1.11%0.56%5.56%
5+0.56%0.56%1.11%—0.56%—2.78%
Total20.56%39.44%21.11%10.56%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.64
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4————5.56%5.56%11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.67 -0.06
SD 1.58 1.33 1.39
CV 0.98 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
2———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.83 -0.22
SD 1.33 1.25 1.48
CV 0.83 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
116.67%16.67%—16.67%——50.00%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.22 +0.44
SD 1.03 1.22 1.58
CV 0.62 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.44 +0.33
SD 1.35 1.25 1.78
CV 0.76 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
216.67%——5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.44 +0.17
SD 1.29 1.20 1.79
CV 0.80 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%————27.78%
1—22.22%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%61.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.18 1.00 1.59
CV 0.92 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
122.22%33.33%5.56%———61.11%
2———————
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.06 -0.06
SD 1.03 0.87 1.39
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
211.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.00 +0.78
SD 1.26 0.91 1.63
CV 0.71 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.67 -0.28
SD 1.09 1.28 1.56
CV 0.79 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
15.56%11.11%—11.11%—5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3———————
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.39 -1.17
SD 1.26 1.61 1.79
CV 1.03 0.68 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 36 26.75 +9.25
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 34 27.62 +6.38
3 Grindavik 29 25.15 +3.85
4 KA Akureyri 25 23.22 +1.78
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 23.07 -1.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 13 21.93 -8.93
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 20 24.46 -4.46
3 Fram Reykjavik 20 22.05 -2.05
4 IA Akranes 23 24.90 -1.90
5 Keflavik IF 20 21.64 -1.64

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 Jul 18 – Aug 19 1 in 61
2 IA Akranes 3 Jun 27 – Jul 11 1 in 34
3 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 2 – Jun 20 1 in 20
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Sep 15 – Sep 21 1 in 14
5 Keflavik IF 2 May 25 – May 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 4 Jul 6 – Aug 1 1 in 60
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Aug 8 – Aug 26 1 in 37
3 IA Akranes 3 May 20 – May 29 1 in 30
4 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 10 – Jun 19 1 in 9
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Jun 1 – Jun 8 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 11 Jun 27 – Sep 21 1 in 39
2 Grindavik 7 Jul 25 – Sep 15 1 in 14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 25 – Jun 9 1 in 7
4 Keflavik IF 4 May 20 – Jun 2 1 in 6
5 KA Akureyri 4 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 2 – Jul 14 1 in 15
2 Thor Akureyri 6 May 25 – Jun 23 1 in 14
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jul 14 – Aug 19 1 in 9
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Aug 12 – Sep 15 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 5 May 20 – Jun 8 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik20.87%16.35%13.61%10.97%9.86%8.34%7.07%6.18%4.02%2.73%
Fylkir Reykjavik24.23%18.07%13.60%11.42%8.74%7.00%6.55%4.47%3.59%2.33%
Grindavik12.30%12.36%12.31%12.15%11.16%9.65%9.53%8.33%6.92%5.29%
KA Akureyri5.95%7.66%9.39%9.88%10.80%10.56%11.33%11.71%11.94%10.78%
IA Akranes11.13%11.62%11.40%11.46%11.25%10.78%9.62%8.72%7.51%6.51%
FH Hafnarfjordur5.66%7.55%8.79%9.63%10.17%11.63%11.13%11.97%11.81%11.66%
Keflavik IF3.16%5.19%6.22%7.45%8.33%10.47%12.18%13.33%15.27%18.40%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.36%10.45%11.41%11.57%10.82%10.81%9.73%9.29%8.85%7.71%
Fram Reykjavik4.04%5.40%6.99%8.19%9.78%10.54%11.42%12.55%14.89%16.20%
Thor Akureyri3.30%5.35%6.28%7.28%9.09%10.22%11.44%13.45%15.20%18.39%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
36.67%31.11%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
206 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.7
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
KR Reykjavik, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.19 * Some Luck: 4.19 to 6.28 * Lucky: 6.28 to 8.37 * Wild Swing: 8.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.08 * Close: 2.08 to 3.11 * Off: 3.11 to 4.15 * Way Off: 4.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.33 * A Surprise: 1.33 to 2.12 * Several Surprises: 2.12 to 2.92 * Many Surprises: 2.92 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.05 points
Some Luck
05.2313
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.606
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.76%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.68%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.10
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Clear Edge
50%75%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.662
Matchup Imbalance
0.16
Slight Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
37%
Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.23
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.151
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 94.08% 5.92%
KR Reykjavik 93.25% 6.75%
Grindavik 87.79% 12.21%
IA Akranes 85.98% 14.02%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 83.44% 16.56%
KA Akureyri 77.28% 22.72%
FH Hafnarfjordur 76.53% 23.47%
Fram Reykjavik 68.91% 31.09%
Thor Akureyri 66.41% 33.59%
Keflavik IF 66.33% 33.67%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2002-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1277 1288 34.7% 33.0% 32.3% -0.1 1
2002-05-20 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1288 1277 32.3% 33.0% 34.7% +0.1 1
2002-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1297 1297 36.3% 32.9% 30.8% -28.1 0
2002-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1297 1297 30.8% 32.9% 36.3% +28.0 3
2002-05-20 Grindavik D 2-2 1295 1289 37.1% 32.9% 30.0% -0.3 1
2002-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1289 1295 30.0% 32.9% 37.1% +0.3 1
2002-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1275 1311 31.1% 33.0% 35.9% +0.2 1
2002-05-20 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1311 1275 35.9% 33.0% 31.1% -0.2 1
2002-05-20 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1311 1304 37.1% 32.9% 30.0% -10.4 0
2002-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1304 1311 30.0% 32.9% 37.1% +10.4 3
2002-05-24 IA Akranes W 3-1 1295 1300 35.6% 33.0% 31.5% +15.2 4
2002-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1300 1295 31.5% 33.0% 35.6% -15.2 0
2002-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-4 1315 1269 42.6% 32.3% 25.2% -0.5 4
2002-05-25 @ Thor Akureyri D 4-4 1269 1315 25.2% 32.3% 42.6% +0.5 1
2002-05-25 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1290 1288 36.5% 32.9% 30.6% -0.3 2
2002-05-25 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1288 1290 30.6% 32.9% 36.5% +0.3 2
2002-05-25 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1325 1275 43.2% 32.1% 24.6% -1.0 4
2002-05-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1275 1325 24.6% 32.1% 43.2% +1.0 2
2002-05-25 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1311 1277 41.1% 32.5% 26.4% -10.5 1
2002-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1277 1311 26.4% 32.5% 41.1% +10.5 4
2002-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1288 1301 34.5% 33.0% 32.5% -9.3 2
2002-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1301 1288 32.5% 33.0% 34.5% +9.3 4
2002-05-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1287 1324 31.1% 32.9% 36.0% +16.6 7
2002-05-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1324 1287 36.0% 32.9% 31.1% -16.6 4
2002-05-29 Grindavik L 1-3 1285 1289 35.7% 33.0% 31.4% -16.5 0
2002-05-29 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1289 1285 31.4% 33.0% 35.7% +16.5 5
2002-05-29 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1270 1310 30.6% 32.9% 36.5% +10.3 4
2002-05-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1310 1270 36.5% 32.9% 30.6% -10.3 4
2002-05-30 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1276 1314 30.9% 32.9% 36.2% +10.2 5
2002-05-30 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1314 1276 36.2% 32.9% 30.9% -10.2 4
2002-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1268 1280 34.6% 33.0% 32.4% -0.1 1
2002-06-01 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1280 1268 32.4% 33.0% 34.6% +0.1 5
2002-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1306 1310 35.7% 33.0% 31.3% +8.3 8
2002-06-01 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1310 1306 31.3% 33.0% 35.7% -8.3 4
2002-06-02 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1300 1286 38.2% 32.8% 29.0% +16.5 7
2002-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1286 1300 29.0% 32.8% 38.2% -16.5 5
2002-06-02 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1304 1304 36.3% 32.9% 30.7% -0.3 5
2002-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1304 1304 30.7% 32.9% 36.3% +0.3 8
2002-06-03 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1308 1279 40.3% 32.6% 27.1% -0.4 5
2002-06-03 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1279 1308 27.1% 32.6% 40.3% +0.4 3
2002-06-08 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1302 1307 35.5% 33.0% 31.5% -10.1 4
2002-06-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1307 1302 31.5% 33.0% 35.5% +10.1 8
2002-06-08 IA Akranes D 1-1 1270 1268 36.5% 32.9% 30.6% -0.3 6
2002-06-08 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1268 1270 30.6% 32.9% 36.5% +0.3 2
2002-06-09 Grindavik W 3-2 1280 1314 31.5% 33.0% 35.5% +9.0 8
2002-06-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1314 1280 35.5% 33.0% 31.5% -9.0 8
2002-06-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1279 1304 32.8% 33.0% 34.2% +16.1 6
2002-06-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1304 1279 34.2% 33.0% 32.8% -16.1 5
2002-06-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1304 1316 34.5% 33.0% 32.5% -9.9 8
2002-06-10 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1316 1304 32.5% 33.0% 34.5% +9.9 10
2002-06-19 Grindavik W 2-0 1317 1305 38.0% 32.8% 29.2% +16.6 11
2002-06-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1305 1317 29.2% 32.8% 38.0% -16.6 8
2002-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1288 1292 35.8% 33.0% 31.3% -0.2 6
2002-06-19 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1292 1288 31.3% 33.0% 35.8% +0.2 5
2002-06-19 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1289 1269 39.1% 32.7% 28.2% -10.8 8
2002-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1269 1289 28.2% 32.7% 39.1% +10.8 9
2002-06-19 Keflavik IF W 5-2 1269 1294 32.6% 33.0% 34.4% +19.7 5
2002-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 2-5 1294 1269 34.4% 33.0% 32.6% -19.7 8
2002-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1326 1296 40.6% 32.6% 26.9% +8.3 13
2002-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1296 1326 26.9% 32.6% 40.6% -8.3 6
2002-06-23 Grindavik L 0-1 1280 1288 35.1% 33.0% 31.9% -10.0 9
2002-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1288 1280 31.9% 33.0% 35.1% +10.0 11
2002-06-23 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1292 1335 30.3% 32.9% 36.8% +28.3 8
2002-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1335 1292 36.8% 32.9% 30.3% -28.3 13
2002-06-23 Thor Akureyri W 4-2 1334 1288 42.7% 32.2% 25.1% +11.5 14
2002-06-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1288 1334 25.1% 32.2% 42.7% -11.5 6
2002-06-24 IA Akranes W 3-2 1287 1288 36.1% 32.9% 30.9% +8.2 9
2002-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1288 1287 30.9% 32.9% 36.1% -8.2 5
2002-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1275 1278 35.7% 33.0% 31.3% -0.2 9
2002-06-26 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1278 1275 31.3% 33.0% 35.7% +0.2 9
2002-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1306 1345 30.8% 32.9% 36.3% +0.3 14
2002-06-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1345 1306 36.3% 32.9% 30.8% -0.3 15
2002-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1280 1320 30.7% 32.9% 36.4% +23.7 8
2002-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1320 1280 36.4% 32.9% 30.7% -23.7 8
2002-06-27 Thor Akureyri L 2-4 1298 1276 39.4% 32.7% 27.9% -15.9 11
2002-06-27 @ Grindavik W 4-2 1276 1298 27.9% 32.7% 39.4% +15.9 9
2002-06-30 Keflavik IF W 4-1 1270 1274 35.7% 33.0% 31.3% +21.4 12
2002-06-30 @ KA Akureyri L 1-4 1274 1270 31.3% 33.0% 35.7% -21.4 9
2002-07-06 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1292 1307 34.2% 33.0% 32.8% -18.5 9
2002-07-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1307 1292 32.8% 33.0% 34.2% +18.5 17
2002-07-07 IA Akranes L 1-3 1345 1304 42.0% 32.4% 25.6% -18.6 15
2002-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1304 1345 25.6% 32.4% 42.0% +18.6 11
2002-07-08 Grindavik D 2-2 1253 1283 32.1% 33.0% 34.9% +0.1 10
2002-07-08 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1283 1253 34.9% 33.0% 32.1% -0.1 12
2002-07-09 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1295 1292 36.8% 32.9% 30.3% -10.4 9
2002-07-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1292 1295 30.3% 32.9% 36.8% +10.3 15
2002-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1296 1279 38.8% 32.8% 28.5% +16.3 11
2002-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1279 1296 28.5% 32.8% 38.8% -16.3 9
2002-07-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1273 1322 29.5% 32.9% 37.7% -16.7 9
2002-07-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1322 1273 37.7% 32.9% 29.5% +16.7 14
2002-07-14 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1313 1302 37.8% 32.8% 29.3% -0.4 12
2002-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1302 1313 29.3% 32.8% 37.8% +0.4 16
2002-07-14 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1285 1253 40.8% 32.5% 26.7% -0.7 10
2002-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1253 1285 26.7% 32.5% 40.8% +0.7 11
2002-07-15 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1282 1325 30.3% 32.9% 36.8% -9.0 12
2002-07-15 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1325 1282 36.8% 32.9% 30.3% +9.1 20
2002-07-18 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1327 1262 45.0% 31.8% 23.2% +7.0 18
2002-07-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1262 1327 23.2% 31.8% 45.0% -7.0 9
2002-07-25 Grindavik L 0-3 1284 1273 37.8% 32.8% 29.3% -28.9 10
2002-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1273 1284 29.3% 32.8% 37.8% +28.9 15
2002-07-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1254 1312 28.2% 32.7% 39.0% +10.8 14
2002-07-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1312 1254 39.0% 32.7% 28.2% -10.8 12
2002-07-26 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1302 1334 31.9% 33.0% 35.2% -17.7 16
2002-07-26 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1334 1302 35.2% 33.0% 31.9% +17.7 21
2002-07-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1339 1334 37.0% 32.9% 30.1% -9.8 14
2002-07-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1334 1339 30.1% 32.9% 37.0% +9.8 23
2002-07-28 Thor Akureyri W 5-2 1255 1257 36.1% 32.9% 30.9% +18.4 12
2002-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-5 1257 1255 30.9% 32.9% 36.1% -18.4 9
2002-07-31 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1302 1255 42.6% 32.2% 25.1% -11.5 12
2002-07-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1255 1302 25.1% 32.2% 42.6% +11.5 13
2002-08-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1344 1274 45.8% 31.6% 22.6% -0.9 24
2002-08-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1274 1344 22.6% 31.6% 45.8% +0.9 13
2002-08-01 IA Akranes W 2-1 1302 1329 32.4% 33.0% 34.6% +9.3 18
2002-08-01 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1329 1302 34.6% 33.0% 32.4% -9.3 14
2002-08-01 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1238 1285 29.8% 32.9% 37.3% -9.0 9
2002-08-01 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1285 1238 37.3% 32.9% 29.8% +8.9 19
2002-08-01 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1351 1265 47.9% 31.1% 21.0% +12.9 24
2002-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1265 1351 21.0% 31.1% 47.9% -12.9 14
2002-08-08 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1275 1267 37.4% 32.9% 29.8% +14.6 16
2002-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1267 1275 29.8% 32.9% 37.4% -14.6 13
2002-08-10 Grindavik D 0-0 1290 1312 33.2% 33.0% 33.8% +0.0 13
2002-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1312 1290 33.8% 33.0% 33.2% -0.0 19
2002-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1252 1364 22.3% 31.6% 46.1% -6.4 13
2002-08-11 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1364 1252 46.1% 31.6% 22.3% +6.4 27
2002-08-11 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1294 1343 29.4% 32.8% 37.8% -8.3 19
2002-08-11 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1343 1294 37.8% 32.8% 29.4% +8.3 27
2002-08-11 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1252 1229 39.4% 32.7% 27.9% -0.4 15
2002-08-11 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1229 1252 27.9% 32.7% 39.4% +0.5 10
2002-08-12 IA Akranes D 1-1 1289 1320 31.9% 33.0% 35.1% +0.2 17
2002-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1320 1289 35.1% 33.0% 31.9% -0.2 15
2002-08-17 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1320 1285 41.1% 32.5% 26.4% -0.8 16
2002-08-17 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1285 1320 26.4% 32.5% 41.1% +0.8 20
2002-08-18 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1312 1289 39.4% 32.7% 27.9% +8.0 22
2002-08-18 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1289 1312 27.9% 32.7% 39.4% -8.0 17
2002-08-18 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1230 1246 34.0% 33.0% 33.0% +9.0 13
2002-08-18 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1246 1230 33.0% 33.0% 34.0% -9.0 13
2002-08-18 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1351 1251 49.6% 30.6% 19.8% -1.2 28
2002-08-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1251 1351 19.8% 30.6% 49.6% +1.2 16
2002-08-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1370 1290 47.1% 31.3% 21.6% +7.0 30
2002-08-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1290 1370 21.6% 31.3% 47.1% -7.0 13
2002-08-24 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1283 1239 42.4% 32.3% 25.3% +13.0 16
2002-08-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1239 1283 25.3% 32.3% 42.4% -13.0 13
2002-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1286 1281 36.9% 32.9% 30.2% -0.3 21
2002-08-25 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1281 1286 30.2% 32.9% 36.9% +0.3 18
2002-08-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1320 1377 28.3% 32.7% 38.9% +17.6 25
2002-08-25 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1377 1320 38.9% 32.7% 28.3% -17.6 30
2002-08-25 IA Akranes L 0-2 1252 1319 27.3% 32.6% 40.1% -15.8 16
2002-08-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1319 1252 40.1% 32.6% 27.3% +15.8 19
2002-08-26 KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1237 1350 22.2% 31.5% 46.3% -10.4 13
2002-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1350 1237 46.3% 31.5% 22.2% +10.4 31
2002-08-31 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1335 1226 50.6% 30.3% 19.1% -1.8 20
2002-08-31 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1226 1335 19.1% 30.3% 50.6% +1.8 14
2002-09-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1226 1360 20.3% 30.8% 48.9% -6.6 13
2002-09-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1360 1226 48.9% 30.8% 20.3% +6.6 33
2002-09-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1361 1296 45.1% 31.8% 23.1% -1.2 32
2002-09-02 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1296 1361 23.1% 31.8% 45.1% +1.2 17
2002-09-02 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1337 1286 43.4% 32.1% 24.5% -1.1 26
2002-09-02 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1286 1337 24.5% 32.1% 43.4% +1.1 22
2002-09-02 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1282 1237 42.5% 32.3% 25.2% -1.0 19
2002-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1237 1282 25.2% 32.3% 42.5% +1.0 17
2002-09-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-4 1228 1281 29.0% 32.8% 38.2% +9.1 17
2002-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 4-5 1281 1228 38.2% 32.8% 29.0% -9.1 19
2002-09-15 Grindavik L 1-5 1219 1336 21.8% 31.4% 46.8% -21.0 13
2002-09-15 @ Thor Akureyri W 5-1 1336 1219 46.8% 31.4% 21.8% +21.0 29
2002-09-15 IA Akranes W 4-1 1297 1333 31.2% 33.0% 35.8% +23.4 20
2002-09-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1333 1297 35.8% 33.0% 31.2% -23.4 20
2002-09-15 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1238 1287 29.4% 32.8% 37.7% -7.9 17
2002-09-15 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1287 1238 37.7% 32.8% 29.4% +7.9 25
2002-09-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1367 1359 37.3% 32.9% 29.8% -0.4 34
2002-09-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1359 1367 29.8% 32.9% 37.3% +0.4 33
2002-09-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1295 1237 44.1% 32.0% 23.9% -32.3 25
2002-09-21 @ KA Akureyri W 3-0 1237 1295 23.9% 32.0% 44.1% +32.3 20
2002-09-21 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1310 1366 28.5% 32.8% 38.7% +20.2 23
2002-09-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1366 1310 38.7% 32.8% 28.5% -20.2 34
2002-09-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1272 1321 29.5% 32.8% 37.7% +9.9 22
2002-09-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1321 1272 37.7% 32.8% 29.5% -9.9 20
2002-09-21 Keflavik IF L 1-4 1357 1230 52.9% 29.5% 17.6% -31.3 29
2002-09-21 @ Grindavik W 4-1 1230 1357 17.6% 29.5% 52.9% +31.3 20
2002-09-21 Thor Akureyri W 5-0 1360 1198 56.8% 27.8% 15.3% +22.3 36
2002-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-5 1198 1360 15.3% 27.8% 56.8% -22.3 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-09-21 17.65% Keflavik IF 1230 4 @ Grindavik 1357 1
2 2002-09-21 23.88% Fram Reykjavik 1237 3 @ KA Akureyri 1295 0
3 2002-07-31 25.11% Fram Reykjavik 1255 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1302 0
4 2002-07-07 25.64% IA Akranes 1304 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1345 1
5 2002-05-25 26.44% Keflavik IF 1277 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1311 1
6 2002-06-27 27.90% Thor Akureyri 1276 4 @ Grindavik 1298 2
7 2002-06-19 28.19% KA Akureyri 1269 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1289 0
8 2002-07-25 28.25% @ Keflavik IF 1254 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1312 0
9 2002-08-25 28.33% @ Grindavik 1320 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1377 1
10 2002-09-21 28.51% @ IA Akranes 1310 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1366 0
11 2002-09-15 29.02% @ Fram Reykjavik 1228 5 FH Hafnarfjordur 1281 4
12 2002-07-25 29.33% Grindavik 1273 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1284 0
13 2002-09-21 29.46% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1272 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1321 1
14 2002-05-20 29.98% Thor Akureyri 1304 1 @ IA Akranes 1311 0
15 2002-07-27 30.12% KR Reykjavik 1334 2 @ IA Akranes 1339 1
16 2002-07-09 30.26% KA Akureyri 1292 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1295 0
17 2002-06-23 30.27% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1292 3 KR Reykjavik 1335 0
18 2002-05-29 30.61% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1270 1 KR Reykjavik 1310 0
19 2002-06-27 30.66% @ IA Akranes 1280 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1320 1
20 2002-05-20 30.76% Fylkir Reykjavik 1297 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1297 0
21 2002-05-30 30.87% @ KA Akureyri 1276 1 Thor Akureyri 1314 0
22 2002-05-29 31.05% @ Keflavik IF 1287 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1324 1
23 2002-09-15 31.21% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1297 4 IA Akranes 1333 1
24 2002-05-29 31.36% Grindavik 1289 3 @ IA Akranes 1285 1
25 2002-06-09 31.50% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1280 3 Grindavik 1314 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-21 32.33 Fram Reykjavik 3 1237 23.88% @ KA Akureyri 0 1295 44.14% 31.98%
2 2002-09-21 31.33 Keflavik IF 4 1230 17.65% @ Grindavik 1 1357 52.88% 29.47%
3 2002-07-25 28.88 Grindavik 3 1273 29.33% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1284 37.83% 32.83%
4 2002-06-23 28.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1292 30.27% KR Reykjavik 0 1335 36.83% 32.90%
5 2002-05-20 28.05 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1297 30.76% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1297 36.31% 32.93%
6 2002-06-27 23.71 @ IA Akranes 4 1280 30.66% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1320 36.42% 32.92%
7 2002-09-15 23.45 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1297 31.21% IA Akranes 1 1333 35.84% 32.95%
8 2002-09-21 22.30 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1360 56.82% Thor Akureyri 0 1198 15.34% 27.84%
9 2002-06-30 21.40 @ KA Akureyri 4 1270 35.70% Keflavik IF 1 1274 31.34% 32.96%
10 2002-09-15 21.02 Grindavik 5 1336 46.78% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1219 21.84% 31.39%
11 2002-09-21 20.22 @ IA Akranes 2 1310 28.51% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1366 38.73% 32.76%
12 2002-06-19 19.73 @ IA Akranes 5 1269 32.63% Keflavik IF 2 1294 34.38% 32.99%
13 2002-07-07 18.57 IA Akranes 3 1304 25.64% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1345 42.01% 32.35%
14 2002-07-06 18.54 KR Reykjavik 2 1307 32.80% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1292 34.21% 32.99%
15 2002-07-28 18.38 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1255 36.11% Thor Akureyri 2 1257 30.95% 32.94%
16 2002-07-26 17.66 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1334 35.18% @ KA Akureyri 0 1302 31.85% 32.97%
17 2002-08-25 17.57 @ Grindavik 3 1320 28.33% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1377 38.92% 32.74%
18 2002-07-11 16.74 IA Akranes 2 1322 37.68% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1273 29.47% 32.85%
19 2002-05-29 16.63 @ Keflavik IF 3 1287 31.05% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1324 36.00% 32.94%
20 2002-06-19 16.61 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1317 38.02% Grindavik 0 1305 29.16% 32.82%
21 2002-06-02 16.54 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1300 38.22% KA Akureyri 0 1286 28.98% 32.80%
22 2002-05-29 16.53 Grindavik 3 1289 31.36% @ IA Akranes 1 1285 35.68% 32.96%
23 2002-07-10 16.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1296 38.77% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1279 28.47% 32.75%
24 2002-06-09 16.06 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1279 32.80% Thor Akureyri 1 1304 34.20% 32.99%
25 2002-06-27 15.86 Thor Akureyri 4 1276 27.90% @ Grindavik 2 1298 39.41% 32.69%