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2001 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

36 points · 15th Title

Last Title: 1996.0

Relegated

Breidablik

14 pts

Valur Reykjavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

7.30 points above expected

36 points · 28.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

6.96 points below expected

14 points · 20.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 11 3 4 36 29 16 +13 28.70 +7.30
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 11 3 4 36 23 15 +8 28.86 +7.14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 5 4 32 23 16 +7 25.45 +6.55
4 Grindavik 18 9 0 9 27 27 29 -2 24.71 +2.29
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 7 4 7 25 26 23 +3 30.02 -5.02
6 Keflavik IF 18 6 5 7 23 27 30 -3 22.28 +0.72
7 KR Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 22 16 20 -4 27.96 -5.96
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 6 2 10 20 28 28 0 21.04 -1.04
9 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 4 9 19 19 26 -7 23.29 -4.29
10 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 2 12 14 17 32 -15 20.96 -6.96

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1410 36 28.86 +7.14 90.5% 8 19 25 29 33 38 49
IA Akranes 1403 36 28.70 +7.30 91.5% 8 19 25 29 33 38 48
FH Hafnarfjordur 1352 32 25.45 +6.55 89.0% 5 16 22 25 29 35 45
Fylkir Reykjavik 1347 25 30.02 -5.02 20.7% 8 21 26 30 34 39 51
KR Reykjavik 1346 22 27.96 -5.96 16.7% 7 19 24 28 32 37 51
Grindavik 1322 27 24.71 +2.29 68.6% 5 16 21 25 29 34 47
Fram Reykjavik 1312 20 21.04 -1.04 46.6% 2 12 17 21 25 30 42
Keflavik IF 1272 23 22.28 +0.72 58.9% 5 13 18 22 26 31 47
Valur Reykjavik 1262 19 23.29 -4.29 25.7% 4 14 19 23 27 33 44
Breidablik 1229 14 20.96 -6.96 11.7% 3 12 17 21 25 30 41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR GRI IA IV KR KI VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
2.32
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
2.16
0-2-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.49
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
3.32
 —
1-1-0
3.22
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.89
0-1-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.40
0-1-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.07
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.40
 —
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.35
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.55
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.69
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
3.80
 —
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
3.67
1-1-0
3.54
Grindavik
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.13
 —
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.80
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.85
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.08
1-0-1
3.62
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
3.38
 —
0-2-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.29
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.22
0-2-0
2.80
 —
2-0-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.48
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.51
0-0-2
3.22
2-0-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
2.79
 —
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
3.31
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.02
1-1-0
2.44
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
1.97
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
2.38
 —
0-2-0
2.71
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
2.56
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.34
0-0-2
2.14
1-1-0
2.31
0-2-0
2.91
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.23 +7.5
Allowed 0.68 -9.5
Differential 0.87 +8.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%9.44%9.44%2.78%1.11%—30.56%
19.44%4.44%8.33%5.00%——27.22%
29.44%8.33%5.56%2.22%2.22%—27.78%
32.78%5.00%2.22%——0.56%10.56%
41.11%—2.22%———3.33%
5+———0.56%——0.56%
Total30.56%27.22%27.78%10.56%3.33%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.14 1.63
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%5.56%22.22%5.56%——50.00%
2—5.56%—5.56%11.11%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.78 -0.83
SD 0.73 1.31 1.25
CV 0.77 0.74 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%22.22%11.11%———44.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.89 +0.39
SD 0.96 0.90 1.33
CV 0.75 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.78%————27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%50.00%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.10 1.46
CV 0.89 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.28 +0.17
SD 1.50 1.23 2.09
CV 1.04 0.96 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.61 -0.11
SD 1.25 1.20 2.11
CV 0.83 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
222.22%—11.11%———33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.89 +0.72
SD 1.04 1.02 1.53
CV 0.64 1.15 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
127.78%——11.11%——38.89%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total61.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.83 +0.44
SD 0.96 1.29 1.76
CV 0.75 1.55 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
216.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.11 -0.22
SD 0.90 1.18 1.48
CV 1.01 1.06 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%22.22%———33.33%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total—50.00%44.44%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.29 0.97 1.47
CV 0.86 0.58 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%———38.89%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%55.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.44 -0.39
SD 1.21 0.92 1.38
CV 1.15 0.64 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 36 28.70 +7.30
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 36 28.86 +7.14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 32 25.45 +6.55
4 Grindavik 27 24.71 +2.29
5 Keflavik IF 23 22.28 +0.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 14 20.96 -6.96
2 KR Reykjavik 22 27.96 -5.96
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 25 30.02 -5.02
4 Valur Reykjavik 19 23.29 -4.29
5 Fram Reykjavik 20 21.04 -1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 137
2 IA Akranes 6 Jul 15 – Aug 27 1 in 58
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Aug 12 – Sep 16 1 in 47
4 Grindavik 3 May 27 – Jun 20 1 in 13
5 Keflavik IF 2 May 17 – May 20 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 13 – Sep 22 1 in 1,999
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 17 – Jun 18 1 in 50
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 48
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 2 – Aug 2 1 in 44
5 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 26 – Aug 20 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 10 May 27 – Aug 1 1 in 50
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jul 29 – Sep 9 1 in 21
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 19
4 IA Akranes 7 Jul 10 – Aug 27 1 in 13
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Aug 12 – Sep 23 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 13 – Sep 22 1 in 90
2 Breidablik 10 May 27 – Aug 2 1 in 63
3 Valur Reykjavik 8 Jul 26 – Sep 22 1 in 29
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 10
5 Keflavik IF 5 Jul 9 – Aug 12 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes20.07%17.04%14.57%12.48%10.15%8.82%6.38%5.16%3.28%2.05%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar20.35%16.71%14.18%12.77%10.40%8.38%6.50%5.50%3.20%2.01%
FH Hafnarfjordur7.54%9.61%11.83%11.79%12.19%11.79%11.16%10.06%7.90%6.13%
Grindavik5.53%7.45%9.96%10.73%11.72%12.28%11.67%11.95%10.33%8.38%
Fylkir Reykjavik24.15%19.65%14.75%12.29%9.21%7.12%5.57%3.70%2.48%1.08%
Keflavik IF2.12%4.00%6.01%7.97%9.49%10.91%12.72%14.52%15.67%16.59%
KR Reykjavik13.98%14.47%14.02%12.92%11.08%10.00%8.78%6.47%4.90%3.38%
Fram Reykjavik1.44%3.32%4.25%5.52%8.14%10.50%12.36%14.95%18.10%21.42%
Valur Reykjavik3.62%5.37%6.61%8.25%10.45%11.11%13.07%13.18%14.61%13.73%
Breidablik1.20%2.38%3.82%5.28%7.17%9.09%11.79%14.51%19.53%25.23%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
48.89%17.78%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.
231 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.9
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
IA Akranes, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.49 * Some Luck: 4.49 to 6.73 * Lucky: 6.73 to 8.98 * Wild Swing: 8.98 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.78 * Close: 1.78 to 2.67 * Off: 2.67 to 3.56 * Way Off: 3.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.16 * A Surprise: 1.16 to 1.85 * Several Surprises: 1.85 to 2.55 * Many Surprises: 2.55 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.31 points
Some Luck
05.6114
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
02.225
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.46%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.66%
Breidablik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.16
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
74%
Clear Edge
50%75%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
8%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.23
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.89
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%31%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 96.44% 3.56%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 94.79% 5.21%
IA Akranes 94.67% 5.33%
KR Reykjavik 91.72% 8.28%
FH Hafnarfjordur 85.97% 14.03%
Grindavik 81.29% 18.71%
Valur Reykjavik 71.66% 28.34%
Keflavik IF 67.74% 32.26%
Fram Reykjavik 60.48% 39.52%
Breidablik 55.24% 44.76%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2001-05-15 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1362 1384 45.1% 18.8% 36.0% +7.1 3
2001-05-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1384 1362 36.0% 18.8% 45.1% -7.1 0
2001-05-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1341 1307 52.7% 18.5% 28.8% -0.8 1
2001-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1307 1341 28.8% 18.5% 52.7% +0.8 1
2001-05-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1298 1369 38.3% 18.8% 42.8% +8.2 3
2001-05-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1369 1298 42.8% 18.8% 38.3% -8.2 0
2001-05-17 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1326 1280 54.2% 18.4% 27.4% -9.5 0
2001-05-17 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1280 1326 27.4% 18.4% 54.2% +9.5 3
2001-05-17 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1288 1301 46.4% 18.8% 34.8% -7.9 0
2001-05-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1301 1288 34.8% 18.8% 46.4% +7.9 3
2001-05-20 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1307 1280 51.7% 18.6% 29.7% +6.1 6
2001-05-20 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1280 1307 29.7% 18.6% 51.7% -6.1 0
2001-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1289 1369 37.0% 18.8% 44.2% +8.0 6
2001-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1369 1289 44.2% 18.8% 37.0% -8.0 3
2001-05-20 Grindavik W 1-0 1309 1316 47.2% 18.8% 34.0% +6.8 6
2001-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1316 1309 34.0% 18.8% 47.2% -6.8 0
2001-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1360 1307 55.0% 18.4% 26.6% -1.4 1
2001-05-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1307 1360 26.6% 18.4% 55.0% +1.4 2
2001-05-21 IA Akranes W 2-1 1377 1340 53.0% 18.5% 28.5% +5.5 3
2001-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1340 1377 28.5% 18.5% 53.0% -5.5 1
2001-05-27 Breidablik W 2-1 1310 1313 47.8% 18.8% 33.5% +6.3 3
2001-05-27 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1313 1310 33.5% 18.8% 47.8% -6.3 6
2001-05-27 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1335 1297 53.1% 18.5% 28.4% +11.0 4
2001-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1297 1335 28.4% 18.5% 53.1% -11.0 6
2001-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1309 1383 37.8% 18.8% 43.3% +15.7 5
2001-05-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1383 1309 43.3% 18.8% 37.8% -15.7 3
2001-05-27 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1361 1316 54.0% 18.5% 27.5% -1.3 4
2001-05-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1316 1361 27.5% 18.5% 54.0% +1.3 7
2001-05-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1274 1359 36.3% 18.8% 44.9% -7.2 0
2001-05-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1359 1274 44.9% 18.8% 36.3% +7.2 4
2001-06-09 Grindavik L 1-2 1267 1316 41.3% 18.9% 39.8% -7.5 0
2001-06-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1316 1267 39.8% 18.9% 41.3% +7.5 6
2001-06-09 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1366 1367 48.1% 18.7% 33.2% +6.6 7
2001-06-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1367 1366 33.2% 18.7% 48.1% -6.6 3
2001-06-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1286 1324 42.9% 18.8% 38.3% +12.2 9
2001-06-10 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1324 1286 38.3% 18.8% 42.9% -12.2 5
2001-06-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1306 1360 40.7% 18.9% 40.4% -14.9 6
2001-06-10 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1360 1306 40.4% 18.9% 40.7% +14.9 7
2001-06-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1317 1346 44.3% 18.8% 36.9% -15.9 7
2001-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1346 1317 36.9% 18.8% 44.3% +15.9 7
2001-06-18 Breidablik W 3-1 1362 1292 57.0% 18.2% 24.8% +8.4 10
2001-06-18 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1292 1362 24.8% 18.2% 57.0% -8.4 6
2001-06-18 Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1375 1259 62.0% 17.7% 20.3% +6.3 10
2001-06-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1259 1375 20.3% 17.7% 62.0% -6.3 0
2001-06-18 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1360 1298 56.0% 18.3% 25.6% +10.0 6
2001-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1298 1360 25.6% 18.3% 56.0% -10.0 9
2001-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1312 1301 49.6% 18.7% 31.7% +6.4 8
2001-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1301 1312 31.7% 18.7% 49.6% -6.4 7
2001-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1323 1373 41.3% 18.9% 39.8% +12.6 9
2001-06-20 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1373 1323 39.8% 18.9% 41.3% -12.6 7
2001-06-21 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1370 1381 46.7% 18.8% 34.5% -0.6 7
2001-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1381 1370 34.5% 18.8% 46.7% +0.6 11
2001-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1283 1319 43.3% 18.8% 37.9% -7.8 6
2001-06-24 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1319 1283 37.9% 18.8% 43.3% +7.8 11
2001-06-24 IA Akranes W 1-0 1253 1370 32.0% 18.7% 49.3% +9.3 3
2001-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1370 1253 49.3% 18.7% 32.0% -9.3 10
2001-06-24 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1360 1288 57.2% 18.2% 24.6% +5.1 10
2001-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1288 1360 24.6% 18.2% 57.2% -5.1 9
2001-06-25 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1295 1370 37.7% 18.8% 43.5% +12.1 10
2001-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1370 1295 43.5% 18.8% 37.7% -12.2 7
2001-06-27 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1326 1262 56.3% 18.3% 25.4% +5.3 14
2001-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1262 1326 25.4% 18.3% 56.3% -5.3 3
2001-06-27 Grindavik W 3-1 1361 1336 51.4% 18.6% 30.0% +10.0 13
2001-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1336 1361 30.0% 18.6% 51.4% -10.0 9
2001-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1382 1365 50.3% 18.6% 31.0% +22.5 14
2001-06-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 1365 1382 31.0% 18.6% 50.3% -22.5 10
2001-06-28 Breidablik D 1-1 1358 1275 58.4% 18.1% 23.5% -1.5 8
2001-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1275 1358 23.5% 18.1% 58.4% +1.5 7
2001-06-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1283 1307 44.9% 18.8% 36.3% -0.3 10
2001-06-28 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1307 1283 36.3% 18.8% 44.9% +0.4 11
2001-07-01 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1257 1356 34.4% 18.8% 46.8% -6.9 3
2001-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1356 1257 46.8% 18.8% 34.4% +6.9 11
2001-07-01 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1343 1307 52.8% 18.5% 28.7% +11.1 13
2001-07-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1307 1343 28.7% 18.5% 52.8% -11.1 11
2001-07-02 IA Akranes W 2-1 1404 1371 52.5% 18.5% 28.9% +5.6 17
2001-07-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1371 1404 28.9% 18.5% 52.5% -5.6 13
2001-07-02 Keflavik IF L 2-4 1277 1283 47.4% 18.8% 33.9% -13.1 7
2001-07-02 @ Breidablik W 4-2 1283 1277 33.9% 18.8% 47.4% +13.1 13
2001-07-09 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1296 1250 54.1% 18.4% 27.5% -0.8 14
2001-07-09 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1250 1296 27.5% 18.4% 54.1% +0.8 4
2001-07-09 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1332 1410 37.2% 18.8% 43.9% +0.3 15
2001-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1410 1332 43.9% 18.8% 37.2% -0.3 18
2001-07-10 Breidablik W 2-0 1296 1264 52.4% 18.6% 29.0% +11.2 14
2001-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1264 1296 29.0% 18.6% 52.4% -11.2 7
2001-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1365 1354 49.7% 18.7% 31.6% -0.8 14
2001-07-10 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1354 1365 31.6% 18.7% 49.7% +0.8 14
2001-07-15 Breidablik W 1-0 1355 1253 60.6% 17.9% 21.5% +4.5 17
2001-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1253 1355 21.5% 17.9% 60.6% -4.5 7
2001-07-15 IA Akranes L 0-1 1332 1364 43.7% 18.8% 37.4% -8.4 15
2001-07-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1364 1332 37.4% 18.8% 43.7% +8.4 17
2001-07-16 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1308 1251 55.4% 18.4% 26.2% +4.9 17
2001-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1251 1308 26.2% 18.4% 55.4% -4.9 4
2001-07-16 Grindavik L 0-2 1295 1326 43.9% 18.8% 37.3% -15.8 14
2001-07-16 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1326 1295 37.3% 18.8% 43.9% +15.8 12
2001-07-19 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 1342 1409 38.7% 18.9% 42.4% -27.1 12
2001-07-19 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1409 1342 42.4% 18.9% 38.7% +27.1 21
2001-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1324 1359 43.3% 18.8% 37.9% -8.3 15
2001-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1359 1324 37.9% 18.8% 43.3% +8.3 20
2001-07-26 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1436 1279 66.1% 17.2% 16.8% -1.7 22
2001-07-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1279 1436 16.8% 17.2% 66.1% +1.6 15
2001-07-26 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1315 1312 48.5% 18.7% 32.8% +12.4 15
2001-07-26 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1312 1315 32.8% 18.7% 48.5% -12.4 17
2001-07-29 Breidablik W 2-1 1246 1248 47.9% 18.7% 33.3% +6.3 7
2001-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1248 1246 33.3% 18.7% 47.9% -6.3 7
2001-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1327 1315 49.8% 18.7% 31.6% -8.8 15
2001-07-29 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1315 1327 31.6% 18.7% 49.8% +8.8 18
2001-07-29 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1373 1363 49.5% 18.7% 31.8% +12.1 20
2001-07-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1363 1373 31.8% 18.7% 49.5% -12.1 11
2001-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1368 1252 62.0% 17.7% 20.3% -18.6 20
2001-08-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1252 1368 20.3% 17.7% 62.0% +18.6 10
2001-08-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1300 1435 29.8% 18.6% 51.6% -9.9 17
2001-08-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1435 1300 51.6% 18.6% 29.8% +9.9 25
2001-08-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1351 1324 51.7% 18.6% 29.7% -9.1 11
2001-08-02 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1324 1351 29.7% 18.6% 51.7% +9.1 21
2001-08-02 Grindavik L 2-4 1242 1318 37.4% 18.8% 43.8% -10.8 7
2001-08-02 @ Breidablik W 4-2 1318 1242 43.8% 18.8% 37.4% +10.8 18
2001-08-02 IA Akranes L 0-1 1281 1385 33.7% 18.8% 47.5% -6.8 15
2001-08-02 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1385 1281 47.5% 18.8% 33.7% +6.8 23
2001-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1342 1349 47.2% 18.8% 34.0% -16.8 11
2001-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1349 1342 34.0% 18.8% 47.2% +16.8 23
2001-08-12 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1333 1274 55.7% 18.3% 25.9% -1.0 22
2001-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1274 1333 25.9% 18.3% 55.7% +1.0 16
2001-08-13 Breidablik L 0-1 1445 1231 70.9% 16.2% 12.9% -13.0 25
2001-08-13 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1231 1445 12.9% 16.2% 70.9% +13.0 10
2001-08-13 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1329 1271 55.6% 18.4% 26.1% -16.9 18
2001-08-13 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1271 1329 26.1% 18.4% 55.6% +16.9 13
2001-08-13 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1392 1290 60.5% 17.9% 21.6% +8.6 26
2001-08-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1290 1392 21.6% 17.9% 60.5% -8.6 17
2001-08-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1288 1432 28.7% 18.5% 52.7% +27.0 16
2001-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1432 1288 52.7% 18.5% 28.7% -27.0 25
2001-08-19 Grindavik W 3-0 1366 1312 55.0% 18.4% 26.6% +15.1 26
2001-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1312 1366 26.6% 18.4% 55.0% -15.0 18
2001-08-19 IA Akranes L 2-3 1244 1400 27.3% 18.4% 54.3% -5.0 10
2001-08-19 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1400 1244 54.3% 18.4% 27.3% +5.0 29
2001-08-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1275 1325 41.2% 18.9% 39.9% +12.7 19
2001-08-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1325 1275 39.9% 18.9% 41.2% -12.7 11
2001-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1281 1332 41.1% 18.9% 40.1% -7.5 17
2001-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1332 1281 40.1% 18.9% 41.1% +7.5 25
2001-08-22 Grindavik W 2-0 1312 1297 50.2% 18.7% 31.2% +11.9 14
2001-08-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1297 1312 31.2% 18.7% 50.2% -11.9 18
2001-08-26 Breidablik W 3-0 1340 1239 60.5% 17.9% 21.6% +12.5 28
2001-08-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1239 1340 21.6% 17.9% 60.5% -12.5 10
2001-08-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1288 1381 35.2% 18.8% 46.0% -13.2 19
2001-08-26 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1381 1288 46.0% 18.8% 35.2% +13.2 29
2001-08-26 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1324 1274 54.6% 18.4% 27.0% -1.3 15
2001-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1274 1324 27.0% 18.4% 54.6% +1.3 18
2001-08-27 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1405 1315 59.3% 18.0% 22.7% +4.8 32
2001-08-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1315 1405 22.7% 18.0% 59.3% -4.8 16
2001-08-27 Grindavik L 2-3 1405 1285 62.4% 17.7% 19.9% -10.3 25
2001-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1285 1405 19.9% 17.7% 62.4% +10.3 21
2001-09-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1394 1395 48.1% 18.7% 33.1% +10.9 32
2001-09-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1395 1394 33.1% 18.7% 48.1% -10.9 25
2001-09-08 IA Akranes W 3-0 1296 1410 32.4% 18.7% 48.9% +25.2 24
2001-09-08 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1410 1296 48.9% 18.7% 32.4% -25.2 32
2001-09-08 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1275 1275 48.3% 18.7% 33.0% -0.6 19
2001-09-08 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1275 1275 33.0% 18.7% 48.3% +0.6 20
2001-09-08 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1226 1323 34.8% 18.8% 46.5% +0.5 11
2001-09-08 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1323 1226 46.5% 18.8% 34.8% -0.5 16
2001-09-09 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1310 1352 42.3% 18.9% 38.8% -0.1 17
2001-09-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1352 1310 38.8% 18.9% 42.3% +0.2 29
2001-09-16 Breidablik W 2-1 1275 1227 54.4% 18.4% 27.2% +5.3 23
2001-09-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1227 1275 27.2% 18.4% 54.4% -5.3 11
2001-09-16 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1322 1310 49.8% 18.7% 31.5% +6.0 19
2001-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1310 1322 31.5% 18.7% 49.8% -6.0 17
2001-09-16 Grindavik L 0-2 1352 1321 52.3% 18.6% 29.1% -18.4 29
2001-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1321 1352 29.1% 18.6% 52.3% +18.4 27
2001-09-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1275 1405 30.4% 18.6% 51.0% -5.8 19
2001-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1405 1275 51.0% 18.6% 30.4% +5.8 35
2001-09-17 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1385 1384 48.3% 18.7% 32.9% +18.1 35
2001-09-17 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1384 1385 32.9% 18.7% 48.3% -18.1 25
2001-09-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1366 1334 52.3% 18.6% 29.1% -18.4 25
2001-09-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1334 1366 29.1% 18.6% 52.3% +18.4 32
2001-09-22 Keflavik IF W 5-3 1304 1280 51.3% 18.6% 30.1% +8.5 20
2001-09-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-5 1280 1304 30.1% 18.6% 51.3% -8.5 23
2001-09-22 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1339 1328 49.7% 18.7% 31.6% -17.6 27
2001-09-22 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1328 1339 31.6% 18.7% 49.7% +17.6 22
2001-09-22 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1222 1269 41.6% 18.9% 39.5% +7.3 14
2001-09-22 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1269 1222 39.5% 18.9% 41.6% -7.3 19
2001-09-23 IA Akranes D 2-2 1411 1403 49.2% 18.7% 32.1% -0.5 36
2001-09-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1403 1411 32.1% 18.7% 49.2% +0.5 36

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2001-08-13 12.89% Breidablik 1231 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1445 0
2 2001-08-27 19.93% Grindavik 1285 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1405 2
3 2001-08-01 20.31% Fram Reykjavik 1252 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1368 1
4 2001-08-13 26.07% Fram Reykjavik 1271 3 @ Grindavik 1329 1
5 2001-05-17 27.39% Keflavik IF 1280 2 @ Grindavik 1326 1
6 2001-08-19 28.75% @ Fram Reykjavik 1288 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1432 0
7 2001-09-16 29.13% Grindavik 1321 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1352 0
8 2001-09-22 29.14% FH Hafnarfjordur 1334 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1366 0
9 2001-08-02 29.73% FH Hafnarfjordur 1324 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1351 1
10 2001-07-29 31.55% FH Hafnarfjordur 1315 2 @ Grindavik 1327 1
11 2001-09-22 31.65% KR Reykjavik 1328 2 @ Grindavik 1339 0
12 2001-06-24 32.05% @ Fram Reykjavik 1253 1 IA Akranes 1370 0
13 2001-09-08 32.40% @ Grindavik 1296 3 IA Akranes 1410 0
14 2001-07-02 33.86% Keflavik IF 1283 4 @ Breidablik 1277 2
15 2001-08-12 34.04% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1349 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1342 0
16 2001-05-17 34.85% Valur Reykjavik 1301 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1288 2
17 2001-06-11 36.90% IA Akranes 1346 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1317 0
18 2001-05-20 36.97% @ Keflavik IF 1289 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1369 1
19 2001-07-16 37.27% Grindavik 1326 2 @ Keflavik IF 1295 0
20 2001-07-15 37.44% IA Akranes 1364 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1332 0
21 2001-06-25 37.70% @ Valur Reykjavik 1295 4 KR Reykjavik 1370 2
22 2001-05-27 37.84% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1309 2 KR Reykjavik 1383 0
23 2001-06-24 37.88% FH Hafnarfjordur 1319 2 @ Breidablik 1283 1
24 2001-07-26 37.90% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1359 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1324 0
25 2001-05-17 38.34% @ Breidablik 1298 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1369 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-07-19 27.09 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1409 42.42% @ Grindavik 0 1342 38.73% 18.85%
2 2001-08-19 26.95 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1288 28.75% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1432 52.72% 18.53%
3 2001-09-08 25.20 @ Grindavik 3 1296 32.40% IA Akranes 0 1410 48.89% 18.71%
4 2001-06-27 22.48 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1382 50.34% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1365 31.01% 18.65%
5 2001-08-01 18.65 Fram Reykjavik 3 1252 20.31% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1368 61.95% 17.74%
6 2001-09-16 18.43 Grindavik 2 1321 29.13% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1352 52.31% 18.56%
7 2001-09-22 18.43 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1334 29.14% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1366 52.31% 18.56%
8 2001-09-17 18.12 @ IA Akranes 3 1385 48.33% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1384 32.94% 18.73%
9 2001-09-22 17.60 KR Reykjavik 2 1328 31.65% @ Grindavik 0 1339 49.67% 18.68%
10 2001-08-13 16.87 Fram Reykjavik 3 1271 26.07% @ Grindavik 1 1329 55.58% 18.35%
11 2001-08-12 16.83 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1349 34.04% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1342 47.20% 18.76%
12 2001-06-11 15.94 IA Akranes 2 1346 36.90% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1317 44.28% 18.83%
13 2001-07-16 15.82 Grindavik 2 1326 37.27% @ Keflavik IF 0 1295 43.90% 18.83%
14 2001-05-27 15.65 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1309 37.84% KR Reykjavik 0 1383 43.32% 18.84%
15 2001-08-19 15.06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1366 55.02% Grindavik 0 1312 26.59% 18.39%
16 2001-06-10 14.87 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1360 40.43% @ Breidablik 0 1306 40.72% 18.85%
17 2001-08-26 13.18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1381 46.03% @ Keflavik IF 0 1288 35.18% 18.79%
18 2001-07-02 13.07 Keflavik IF 4 1283 33.86% @ Breidablik 2 1277 47.38% 18.76%
19 2001-08-13 12.96 Breidablik 1 1231 12.89% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1445 70.89% 16.22%
20 2001-08-19 12.67 @ Keflavik IF 3 1275 41.25% KR Reykjavik 1 1325 39.90% 18.85%
21 2001-06-20 12.65 @ Grindavik 3 1323 41.30% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1373 39.84% 18.85%
22 2001-08-26 12.50 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1340 60.45% Breidablik 0 1239 21.64% 17.91%
23 2001-07-26 12.42 @ Grindavik 2 1315 48.51% Valur Reykjavik 0 1312 32.76% 18.72%
24 2001-06-10 12.25 @ Keflavik IF 3 1286 42.87% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1324 38.28% 18.84%
25 2001-06-25 12.16 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1295 37.70% KR Reykjavik 2 1370 43.46% 18.84%