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1999 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

45 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1968.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

14 pts

Valur Reykjavik · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

10.96 points above expected

45 points · 34.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

6.32 points below expected

19 points · 25.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 14 3 1 45 43 13 +30 34.04 +10.96
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 11 5 2 38 31 14 +17 34.72 +3.28
3 IF Leiftur 18 6 8 4 26 22 26 -4 26.19 -0.19
4 IA Akranes 18 6 6 6 24 21 21 0 29.20 -5.20
5 Breidablik 18 5 6 7 21 22 24 -2 20.93 +0.07
6 Keflavik IF 18 5 4 9 19 28 34 -6 21.60 -2.60
7 Grindavik 18 5 4 9 19 25 29 -4 21.33 -2.33
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 7 7 19 23 27 -4 25.32 -6.32
9 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 6 8 18 28 38 -10 20.69 -2.69
10 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 5 10 14 21 38 -17 10.98 +3.02

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1611 45 34.04 +10.96 99.1% 14 26 31 34 38 42 51
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1573 38 34.72 +3.28 76.6% 16 26 31 35 38 43 52
IA Akranes 1458 24 29.20 -5.20 18.2% 11 21 26 29 33 38 48
IF Leiftur 1415 26 26.19 -0.19 52.8% 8 18 23 26 30 35 45
Fram Reykjavik 1375 19 25.32 -6.32 13.0% 8 17 22 25 29 34 46
Grindavik 1356 19 21.33 -2.33 36.5% 5 13 18 21 25 30 42
Keflavik IF 1347 19 21.60 -2.60 34.4% 6 13 18 22 25 30 42
Breidablik 1344 21 20.93 +0.07 55.8% 4 13 17 21 24 30 41
Valur Reykjavik 1322 18 20.69 -2.69 33.5% 4 13 17 21 24 29 39
Vikingur Reykjavik 1165 14 10.98 +3.02 80.3% 0 5 8 11 14 18 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
0-2-0
2.24
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
1.40
0-2-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.46
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
3.95
Fram Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.14
 —
0-1-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
1.67
1-1-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.68
1-0-1
3.15
0-1-1
3.22
2-0-0
4.25
Grindavik
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.22
 —
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.54
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.79
0-2-0
3.97
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.52
 —
0-1-1
2.03
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
3.55
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
4.57
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
4.09
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.07
1-1-0
3.37
 —
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
4.10
0-2-0
4.23
2-0-0
4.90
IF Leiftur
0-2-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
1.97
 —
0-2-0
1.86
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
4.34
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.62
0-2-0
3.57
 —
2-0-0
4.14
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.98
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
1.87
0-1-1
1.39
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.37
 —
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
4.04
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.83
0-2-0
1.30
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.48
0-1-1
2.49
 —
0-1-1
3.94
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
1.53
0-0-2
1.27
0-2-0
1.51
0-1-1
1.03
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-2
1.21
0-0-2
0.72
1-0-1
1.45
1-1-0
1.52
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +11.6
Allowed 0.78 -9.8
Differential 0.95 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.11%5.56%2.78%0.56%0.56%22.22%
16.11%12.22%9.44%3.33%1.67%0.56%33.33%
25.56%9.44%8.89%3.33%0.56%—27.78%
32.78%3.33%3.33%1.11%——10.56%
40.56%1.67%0.56%—1.11%0.56%4.44%
5+0.56%0.56%——0.56%—1.67%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%10.56%4.44%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.61
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.11 0.97 1.41
CV 0.91 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
1—16.67%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
216.67%—11.11%———27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 0.96 1.04 1.35
CV 0.75 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%27.78%5.56%5.56%—55.56%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%44.44%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.61 -0.22
SD 0.92 0.98 1.40
CV 0.66 0.61 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
111.11%11.11%————22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.20 0.86 1.37
CV 1.03 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%16.67%————22.22%
211.11%27.78%5.56%———44.44%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%50.00%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.78 +0.94
SD 1.23 0.81 1.73
CV 0.71 1.04 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
116.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.44 -0.22
SD 1.22 1.54 1.93
CV 0.99 1.07 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%50.00%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.72 +1.67
SD 1.29 0.67 1.41
CV 0.54 0.93 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.89 -0.33
SD 1.15 0.96 1.19
CV 0.74 0.51 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
3———————
4————5.56%5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.11 -0.56
SD 1.15 1.60 1.34
CV 0.74 0.76 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%22.22%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.11 -0.94
SD 1.20 1.23 1.51
CV 1.03 0.58 —
Max 5 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 45 34.04 +10.96
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 38 34.72 +3.28
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 14 10.98 +3.02
4 Breidablik 21 20.93 +0.07
5 IF Leiftur 26 26.19 -0.19

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 19 25.32 -6.32
2 IA Akranes 24 29.20 -5.20
3 Valur Reykjavik 18 20.69 -2.69
4 Keflavik IF 19 21.60 -2.60
5 Grindavik 19 21.33 -2.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 7 Aug 8 – Sep 18 1 in 42
2 Breidablik 2 Aug 31 – Sep 11 1 in 18
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 15 – Aug 21 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 24 – Aug 22 1 in 13
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 15 – Jul 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 26 – Aug 22 1 in 81
2 Breidablik 4 Aug 15 – Aug 27 1 in 33
3 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 22 – Jul 29 1 in 17
4 Grindavik 3 Jun 23 – Jul 15 1 in 13
5 IA Akranes 2 Sep 11 – Sep 18 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 6 Jun 1 – Jul 21 1 in 19
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 20 1 in 15
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 20 – Jun 20 1 in 14
4 KR Reykjavik 13 Jun 24 – Sep 18 1 in 13
5 Breidablik 4 May 27 – Jun 20 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jul 22 – Sep 11 1 in 25
2 IA Akranes 5 May 18 – Jun 12 1 in 25
3 Valur Reykjavik 7 May 20 – Jul 5 1 in 10
4 Breidablik 5 Jun 12 – Jul 21 1 in 8
5 IF Leiftur 4 Jun 12 – Jun 27 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik40.04%30.20%15.16%7.68%3.69%1.96%0.80%0.38%0.08%0.01%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar43.12%30.13%14.57%6.72%3.13%1.38%0.65%0.23%0.07%—
IF Leiftur3.39%8.39%15.45%19.18%17.24%13.96%10.32%7.12%4.43%0.52%
IA Akranes9.09%17.93%25.39%18.02%12.79%7.63%4.81%2.87%1.33%0.14%
Breidablik0.42%1.58%4.32%7.92%10.55%14.98%17.23%19.17%19.44%4.39%
Keflavik IF0.46%1.78%4.73%8.86%12.72%15.20%17.30%18.59%16.77%3.59%
Grindavik0.50%1.80%4.47%8.27%12.20%15.31%17.33%18.34%17.62%4.16%
Fram Reykjavik2.65%6.92%12.62%16.79%17.53%15.56%12.30%9.03%5.67%0.93%
Valur Reykjavik0.33%1.27%3.27%6.46%9.90%13.45%17.62%20.21%22.35%5.14%
Vikingur Reykjavik——0.02%0.10%0.25%0.57%1.64%4.06%12.24%81.12%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Clear Edge
43.33%30.00%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 58.45 Elo pts.
212 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
KR Reykjavik, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.240.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.01 * Some Luck: 4.01 to 6.01 * Lucky: 6.01 to 8.01 * Wild Swing: 8.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.13 * Close: 1.13 to 1.7 * Off: 1.7 to 2.27 * Way Off: 2.27 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.79 * A Surprise: 0.79 to 1.27 * Several Surprises: 1.27 to 1.74 * Many Surprises: 1.74 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.75 points
Some Luck
05.0113
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.423
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.06%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.02%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.54
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%65%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Occasional
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.32
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.143
Well Within Noise
00.1810.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 99.93% 0.07%
KR Reykjavik 99.91% 0.09%
IA Akranes 98.53% 1.47%
IF Leiftur 95.05% 4.95%
Fram Reykjavik 93.40% 6.60%
Keflavik IF 79.64% 20.36%
Grindavik 78.22% 21.78%
Breidablik 76.17% 23.83%
Valur Reykjavik 72.51% 27.49%
Vikingur Reykjavik 6.64% 93.36%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1999-05-18 IA Akranes W 1-0 1499 1485 44.2% 30.9% 24.9% +6.7 3
1999-05-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1485 1499 24.9% 30.9% 44.2% -6.7 0
1999-05-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1340 1360 39.5% 31.6% 29.0% +14.2 3
1999-05-20 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1360 1340 29.0% 31.6% 39.5% -14.2 0
1999-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1363 1409 35.8% 31.8% 32.4% -0.1 1
1999-05-20 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1409 1363 32.4% 31.8% 35.8% +0.1 1
1999-05-20 IF Leiftur W 5-0 1524 1446 52.4% 28.7% 19.0% +23.3 3
1999-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1446 1524 19.0% 28.7% 52.4% -23.3 0
1999-05-20 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1168 1372 18.3% 28.3% 53.4% +11.1 3
1999-05-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1372 1168 53.4% 28.3% 18.3% -11.1 0
1999-05-24 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1409 1360 48.7% 29.8% 21.5% +11.2 4
1999-05-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1360 1409 21.5% 29.8% 48.7% -11.2 0
1999-05-24 Breidablik W 1-0 1362 1354 43.4% 31.0% 25.5% +6.8 4
1999-05-24 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1354 1362 25.5% 31.0% 43.4% -6.8 3
1999-05-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1479 1179 75.5% 16.5% 8.0% -3.4 1
1999-05-24 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1179 1479 8.0% 16.5% 75.5% +3.4 4
1999-05-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1346 1547 18.5% 28.4% 53.1% +1.9 1
1999-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1547 1346 53.1% 28.4% 18.5% -1.9 4
1999-05-27 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1347 1420 32.0% 31.8% 36.2% +0.2 4
1999-05-27 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1420 1347 36.2% 31.8% 32.0% -0.2 5
1999-05-27 Grindavik W 2-1 1545 1369 63.5% 23.6% 12.9% +3.3 7
1999-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1369 1545 12.9% 23.6% 63.5% -3.3 4
1999-05-27 IA Akranes W 2-0 1349 1475 25.5% 31.0% 43.5% +19.0 3
1999-05-27 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1475 1349 43.5% 31.0% 25.5% -19.0 1
1999-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 5-1 1506 1348 61.6% 24.6% 13.8% +11.2 6
1999-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-5 1348 1506 13.8% 24.6% 61.6% -11.2 1
1999-05-29 IF Leiftur L 0-3 1182 1422 15.8% 26.5% 57.7% -12.0 4
1999-05-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1422 1182 57.7% 26.5% 15.8% +12.0 3
1999-05-31 IA Akranes D 0-0 1420 1456 37.3% 31.7% 31.0% -0.3 6
1999-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1456 1420 31.0% 31.7% 37.3% +0.3 2
1999-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1347 1548 18.5% 28.4% 53.1% +11.7 7
1999-06-01 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1548 1347 53.1% 28.4% 18.5% -11.7 7
1999-06-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1366 1517 22.8% 30.3% 46.9% -10.2 4
1999-06-01 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1517 1366 46.9% 30.3% 22.8% +10.2 9
1999-06-01 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1434 1368 50.9% 29.2% 20.0% +5.5 6
1999-06-01 @ IF Leiftur L 0-1 1368 1434 20.0% 29.2% 50.9% -5.5 3
1999-06-01 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1337 1170 62.5% 24.1% 13.3% -2.5 2
1999-06-01 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1170 1337 13.3% 24.1% 62.5% +2.5 5
1999-06-12 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1457 1440 44.5% 30.8% 24.6% -1.0 3
1999-06-12 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1440 1457 24.6% 30.8% 44.5% +1.0 7
1999-06-12 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1537 1420 57.0% 26.8% 16.2% -2.0 8
1999-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1420 1537 16.2% 26.8% 57.0% +2.0 7
1999-06-12 Valur Reykjavik D 4-4 1363 1334 46.1% 30.5% 23.4% -0.6 4
1999-06-12 @ Keflavik IF D 4-4 1334 1363 23.4% 30.5% 46.1% +0.6 3
1999-06-12 Breidablik D 0-0 1527 1359 62.7% 24.0% 13.2% -2.8 10
1999-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1359 1527 13.2% 24.0% 62.7% +2.8 8
1999-06-13 Grindavik D 1-1 1173 1356 19.9% 29.1% 50.9% +1.5 6
1999-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1356 1173 50.9% 29.1% 19.9% -1.5 5
1999-06-19 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1535 1525 43.7% 31.0% 25.4% +6.4 11
1999-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1525 1535 25.4% 31.0% 43.7% -6.4 10
1999-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1362 1174 64.8% 22.9% 12.3% -2.6 9
1999-06-20 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1174 1362 12.3% 22.9% 64.8% +2.7 7
1999-06-20 IF Leiftur W 2-0 1422 1441 39.7% 31.5% 28.8% +14.1 10
1999-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1441 1422 28.8% 31.5% 39.7% -14.1 7
1999-06-20 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1354 1362 41.2% 31.4% 27.4% +13.6 8
1999-06-20 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1362 1354 27.4% 31.4% 41.2% -13.6 4
1999-06-23 Grindavik W 1-0 1456 1368 53.5% 28.2% 18.2% +5.1 6
1999-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1368 1456 18.2% 28.2% 53.5% -5.1 8
1999-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1177 1541 9.8% 19.5% 70.8% -2.3 7
1999-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1541 1177 70.8% 19.5% 9.8% +2.3 14
1999-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1427 1335 54.0% 28.0% 17.9% -2.0 8
1999-06-24 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1335 1427 17.9% 28.0% 54.0% +2.0 4
1999-06-24 Breidablik W 2-1 1349 1359 40.8% 31.4% 27.8% +6.9 7
1999-06-24 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1359 1349 27.8% 31.4% 40.8% -6.9 9
1999-06-24 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1518 1436 52.9% 28.5% 18.7% +8.5 13
1999-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1436 1518 18.7% 28.5% 52.9% -8.5 10
1999-06-27 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1425 1527 28.3% 31.5% 40.2% +0.5 9
1999-06-27 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 1527 1425 40.2% 31.5% 28.3% -0.5 14
1999-07-04 IF Leiftur L 0-1 1363 1425 33.5% 31.8% 34.7% -8.3 8
1999-07-04 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1425 1363 34.7% 31.8% 33.5% +8.3 12
1999-07-04 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1543 1355 64.8% 22.9% 12.3% +3.3 17
1999-07-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1355 1543 12.3% 22.9% 64.8% -3.3 7
1999-07-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1526 1174 79.8% 13.8% 6.4% +3.4 17
1999-07-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1174 1526 6.4% 13.8% 79.8% -3.4 7
1999-07-05 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1428 1337 53.9% 28.1% 18.0% -1.3 11
1999-07-05 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1337 1428 18.0% 28.1% 53.9% +1.3 5
1999-07-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1171 1426 14.9% 25.7% 59.4% -7.8 7
1999-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1426 1171 59.4% 25.7% 14.9% +7.8 14
1999-07-15 Breidablik D 2-2 1434 1352 52.8% 28.5% 18.7% -1.2 13
1999-07-15 @ IF Leiftur D 2-2 1352 1434 18.7% 28.5% 52.8% +1.2 10
1999-07-15 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1352 1530 20.4% 29.4% 50.2% -9.2 7
1999-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1530 1352 50.2% 29.4% 20.4% +9.2 20
1999-07-15 Grindavik W 2-1 1338 1354 40.1% 31.5% 28.4% +7.0 8
1999-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1354 1338 28.4% 31.5% 40.1% -7.0 8
1999-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1461 1547 30.3% 31.7% 38.0% +0.3 7
1999-07-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1547 1461 38.0% 31.7% 30.3% -0.3 18
1999-07-21 Breidablik W 2-1 1345 1354 41.1% 31.4% 27.5% +6.8 11
1999-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1354 1345 27.5% 31.4% 41.1% -6.8 10
1999-07-22 Grindavik L 1-3 1434 1347 53.4% 28.3% 18.3% -19.2 14
1999-07-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1347 1434 18.3% 28.3% 53.4% +19.2 11
1999-07-22 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1461 1539 31.4% 31.8% 36.9% -15.0 7
1999-07-22 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1539 1461 36.9% 31.8% 31.4% +15.0 23
1999-07-22 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1343 1163 63.9% 23.4% 12.7% +3.1 10
1999-07-22 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1163 1343 12.7% 23.4% 63.9% -3.1 7
1999-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1433 1546 26.9% 31.3% 41.9% -19.5 13
1999-07-24 @ IF Leiftur W 3-0 1546 1433 41.9% 31.3% 26.9% +19.5 21
1999-07-26 IA Akranes L 1-2 1352 1446 29.3% 31.6% 39.1% -7.2 11
1999-07-26 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1446 1352 39.1% 31.6% 29.3% +7.1 10
1999-07-28 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1554 1413 59.7% 25.6% 14.8% -2.2 24
1999-07-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1413 1554 14.8% 25.6% 59.7% +2.3 14
1999-07-29 Grindavik W 4-1 1347 1367 39.6% 31.6% 28.9% +17.3 13
1999-07-29 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1367 1347 28.9% 31.6% 39.6% -17.3 11
1999-07-29 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1346 1415 32.6% 31.8% 35.6% +8.2 13
1999-07-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1415 1346 35.6% 31.8% 32.6% -8.2 14
1999-07-29 IA Akranes L 1-2 1160 1453 12.9% 23.6% 63.5% -3.3 7
1999-07-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1453 1160 63.5% 23.6% 12.9% +3.3 13
1999-08-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1415 1157 71.8% 18.8% 9.4% +2.4 17
1999-08-07 @ IF Leiftur L 0-1 1157 1415 9.4% 18.8% 71.8% -2.3 7
1999-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1349 1566 17.4% 27.7% 54.9% -4.6 11
1999-08-08 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1566 1349 54.9% 27.7% 17.4% +4.6 24
1999-08-08 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1456 1354 55.2% 27.6% 17.2% -1.4 14
1999-08-08 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1354 1456 17.2% 27.6% 55.2% +1.4 14
1999-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1345 1552 18.1% 28.1% 53.8% -4.8 11
1999-08-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1552 1345 53.8% 28.1% 18.1% +4.8 27
1999-08-10 Breidablik D 2-2 1407 1364 47.9% 30.0% 22.0% -0.9 15
1999-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1364 1407 22.0% 30.0% 47.9% +0.9 14
1999-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1455 1406 48.8% 29.8% 21.4% +5.9 17
1999-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1406 1455 21.4% 29.8% 48.8% -5.9 15
1999-08-15 Breidablik W 2-1 1570 1365 66.6% 21.9% 11.5% +2.9 27
1999-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1365 1570 11.5% 21.9% 66.6% -2.9 14
1999-08-15 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1356 1418 33.6% 31.8% 34.6% +0.0 15
1999-08-15 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1418 1356 34.6% 31.8% 33.6% -0.0 18
1999-08-15 Grindavik W 2-1 1556 1345 67.2% 21.6% 11.2% +2.8 30
1999-08-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1345 1556 11.2% 21.6% 67.2% -2.8 11
1999-08-16 Valur Reykjavik W 5-4 1155 1340 19.8% 29.1% 51.2% +9.8 10
1999-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 4-5 1340 1155 51.2% 29.1% 19.8% -9.8 11
1999-08-18 IA Akranes L 1-3 1362 1461 28.7% 31.5% 39.8% -12.2 14
1999-08-18 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1461 1362 39.8% 31.5% 28.7% +12.2 20
1999-08-21 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1350 1559 17.9% 28.0% 54.1% -13.7 14
1999-08-21 @ Breidablik W 3-0 1559 1350 54.1% 28.0% 17.9% +13.7 33
1999-08-21 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1342 1164 63.7% 23.5% 12.8% -1.9 12
1999-08-21 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1164 1342 12.8% 23.5% 63.7% +1.9 11
1999-08-21 IA Akranes L 1-4 1418 1473 34.5% 31.8% 33.7% -19.7 18
1999-08-21 @ IF Leiftur W 4-1 1473 1418 33.7% 31.8% 34.5% +19.7 23
1999-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1400 1573 20.8% 29.5% 49.7% -10.8 15
1999-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1573 1400 49.7% 29.5% 20.8% +10.8 30
1999-08-22 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1330 1356 38.8% 31.6% 29.6% -8.3 11
1999-08-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1356 1330 29.6% 31.6% 38.8% +8.3 18
1999-08-25 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1584 1322 72.1% 18.6% 9.2% -2.4 31
1999-08-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1322 1584 9.2% 18.6% 72.1% +2.4 12
1999-08-27 Breidablik W 1-0 1166 1336 21.1% 29.7% 49.2% +11.1 14
1999-08-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1336 1166 49.2% 29.7% 21.1% -11.0 14
1999-08-28 Grindavik L 2-3 1364 1340 45.5% 30.6% 23.9% -9.3 18
1999-08-28 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1340 1364 23.9% 30.6% 45.5% +9.3 15
1999-08-29 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1493 1324 62.7% 24.1% 13.2% -13.3 23
1999-08-29 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1324 1493 13.2% 24.1% 62.7% +13.3 15
1999-08-29 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1398 1389 43.5% 31.0% 25.5% -0.5 19
1999-08-29 @ IF Leiftur D 3-3 1389 1398 25.5% 31.0% 43.5% +0.5 16
1999-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1573 1582 41.1% 31.4% 27.6% +19.8 36
1999-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1582 1573 27.6% 31.4% 41.1% -19.8 31
1999-08-31 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1325 1355 38.2% 31.7% 30.1% +7.3 17
1999-08-31 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1355 1325 30.1% 31.7% 38.2% -7.3 18
1999-09-01 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1389 1593 18.4% 28.3% 53.3% -9.7 16
1999-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1593 1389 53.3% 28.3% 18.4% +9.6 39
1999-09-01 IA Akranes D 2-2 1349 1479 25.0% 30.9% 44.1% +0.7 16
1999-09-01 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1479 1349 44.1% 30.9% 25.0% -0.7 24
1999-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1562 1177 82.2% 12.2% 5.6% +3.3 34
1999-09-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1177 1562 5.6% 12.2% 82.2% -3.4 14
1999-09-02 IF Leiftur L 2-4 1338 1397 33.9% 31.8% 34.3% -12.3 15
1999-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-2 1397 1338 34.3% 31.8% 33.9% +12.3 22
1999-09-11 Breidablik L 2-3 1479 1332 60.3% 25.3% 14.4% -11.5 24
1999-09-11 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1332 1479 14.4% 25.3% 60.3% +11.5 20
1999-09-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1410 1350 50.1% 29.4% 20.5% +5.3 25
1999-09-11 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1350 1410 20.5% 29.4% 50.1% -5.3 16
1999-09-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1347 1565 17.3% 27.6% 55.1% +1.9 19
1999-09-11 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1565 1347 55.1% 27.6% 17.3% -1.9 35
1999-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1325 1380 34.7% 31.8% 33.5% +7.9 18
1999-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1380 1325 33.5% 31.8% 34.7% -7.9 16
1999-09-11 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1174 1602 7.6% 15.9% 76.5% -6.4 14
1999-09-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1602 1174 76.5% 15.9% 7.6% +6.4 42
1999-09-18 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1344 1415 32.3% 31.8% 35.9% +0.2 21
1999-09-18 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1415 1344 35.9% 31.8% 32.3% -0.2 26
1999-09-18 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1372 1168 66.5% 22.0% 11.6% +2.7 19
1999-09-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1168 1372 11.6% 22.0% 66.5% -2.7 14
1999-09-18 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1345 1333 43.9% 30.9% 25.2% +11.0 19
1999-09-18 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1333 1345 25.2% 30.9% 43.9% -11.0 18
1999-09-18 IA Akranes W 2-0 1563 1467 54.5% 27.9% 17.6% +9.3 38
1999-09-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1467 1563 17.6% 27.9% 54.5% -9.3 24
1999-09-18 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1609 1349 71.9% 18.8% 9.3% +2.1 45
1999-09-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1349 1609 9.3% 18.8% 71.9% -2.1 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1999-08-29 13.25% Valur Reykjavik 1324 1 @ IA Akranes 1493 0
2 1999-09-11 14.43% Breidablik 1332 3 @ IA Akranes 1479 2
3 1999-05-20 18.28% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1168 2 Keflavik IF 1372 1
4 1999-07-22 18.32% Grindavik 1347 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1434 1
5 1999-06-01 18.49% @ Breidablik 1347 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1548 0
6 1999-08-16 19.75% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1155 5 Valur Reykjavik 1340 4
7 1999-08-27 21.08% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1166 1 Breidablik 1336 0
8 1999-08-28 23.90% Grindavik 1340 3 @ Keflavik IF 1364 2
9 1999-05-27 25.48% @ Keflavik IF 1349 2 IA Akranes 1475 0
10 1999-08-22 29.59% Keflavik IF 1356 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1330 2
11 1999-07-29 32.62% @ Keflavik IF 1346 2 Fram Reykjavik 1415 1
12 1999-08-21 33.66% IA Akranes 1473 4 @ IF Leiftur 1418 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-05-20 23.30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1524 52.37% IF Leiftur 0 1446 18.98% 28.66%
2 1999-08-29 19.85 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1573 41.07% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1582 27.56% 31.37%
3 1999-08-21 19.66 IA Akranes 4 1473 33.66% @ IF Leiftur 1 1418 34.53% 31.81%
4 1999-07-24 19.46 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1546 41.89% @ IF Leiftur 0 1433 26.85% 31.26%
5 1999-07-22 19.22 Grindavik 3 1347 18.32% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1434 53.39% 28.29%
6 1999-05-27 18.96 @ Keflavik IF 2 1349 25.48% IA Akranes 0 1475 43.51% 31.00%
7 1999-07-29 17.34 @ Breidablik 4 1347 39.55% Grindavik 1 1367 28.90% 31.55%
8 1999-07-22 15.02 KR Reykjavik 2 1539 36.86% @ IA Akranes 0 1461 31.39% 31.75%
9 1999-05-20 14.18 @ Breidablik 2 1340 39.48% Valur Reykjavik 0 1360 28.97% 31.55%
10 1999-06-20 14.11 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1422 39.68% IF Leiftur 0 1441 28.79% 31.53%
11 1999-08-21 13.67 KR Reykjavik 3 1559 54.07% @ Breidablik 0 1350 17.90% 28.03%
12 1999-06-20 13.61 @ Grindavik 2 1354 41.22% Keflavik IF 0 1362 27.43% 31.36%
13 1999-08-29 13.28 Valur Reykjavik 1 1324 13.25% @ IA Akranes 0 1493 62.70% 24.05%
14 1999-09-02 12.27 IF Leiftur 4 1397 34.30% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1338 33.89% 31.81%
15 1999-08-18 12.19 IA Akranes 3 1461 39.80% @ Breidablik 1 1362 28.68% 31.52%
16 1999-05-29 12.01 IF Leiftur 3 1422 57.71% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1182 15.79% 26.50%
17 1999-06-01 11.73 @ Breidablik 1 1347 18.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1548 53.12% 28.39%
18 1999-09-11 11.55 Breidablik 3 1332 14.43% @ IA Akranes 2 1479 60.29% 25.28%
19 1999-05-27 11.24 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1506 61.58% Valur Reykjavik 1 1348 13.79% 24.63%
20 1999-05-24 11.15 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1409 48.72% Keflavik IF 0 1360 21.47% 29.82%
21 1999-05-20 11.11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1168 18.28% Keflavik IF 1 1372 53.45% 28.26%
22 1999-08-27 11.06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1166 21.08% Breidablik 0 1336 49.25% 29.66%
23 1999-09-18 11.04 @ Grindavik 3 1345 43.85% Valur Reykjavik 1 1333 25.21% 30.94%
24 1999-08-22 10.83 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1573 49.71% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1400 20.76% 29.53%
25 1999-06-01 10.19 KR Reykjavik 3 1517 46.87% @ Grindavik 1 1366 22.83% 30.30%