1998 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

38 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1997.0

Relegated

IR Reykjavik

17 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Throttur Reykjavik

8.12 points above expected

18 points · 9.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

5.54 points below expected

20 points · 25.54 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion	18	12	2	4	38	40	15	+25	35.13	+2.87
2	KR Reykjavik	18	9	6	3	33	25	9	+16	33.11	-0.11
3	IA Akranes	18	8	6	4	30	27	22	+5	33.58	-3.58
4	Keflavik IF	18	8	4	6	28	19	23	-4	22.55	+5.45
5	IF Leiftur	18	7	4	7	25	21	21	0	29.61	-4.61
6	Fram Reykjavik	18	5	5	8	20	21	23	-2	25.54	-5.54
7	Grindavik	18	5	4	9	19	24	34	-10	22.90	-3.90
8	Valur Reykjavik	18	4	6	8	18	25	33	-8	21.85	-3.85
9	Throttur Reykjavik Relegated	18	4	6	8	18	27	39	-12	9.88	+8.12
10	IR Reykjavik Relegated	18	4	5	9	17	20	30	-10	15.55	+1.45

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1640	38	35.13	+2.87	73.9%	17	27	32	35	39	43	52
KR Reykjavik	1604	33	33.11	-0.11	52.9%	14	25	30	33	37	42	50
IA Akranes	1591	30	33.58	-3.58	27.1%	16	25	30	34	37	42	52
IF Leiftur	1533	25	29.61	-4.61	21.8%	10	21	26	30	33	38	52
Fram Reykjavik	1484	20	25.54	-5.54	16.7%	5	17	22	26	29	34	45
Keflavik IF	1437	28	22.55	+5.45	88.1%	5	14	19	23	26	31	42
Grindavik	1422	19	22.90	-3.90	25.8%	4	15	19	23	26	31	43
Valur Reykjavik	1419	18	21.85	-3.85	26.4%	5	14	18	22	25	30	40
IR Reykjavik	1325	17	15.55	+1.45	67.2%	1	8	12	15	19	24	36
Throttur Reykjavik	1212	18	9.88	+8.12	97.2%	0	4	7	10	13	17	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FR	GRI	IA	IV	IL	IR	KR	KI	TR	VR
Fram Reykjavik	—	0-1-1 3.14	1-1-0 1.85	0-0-2 1.72	0-1-1 2.27	1-1-0 3.86	0-0-2 1.98	0-0-2 3.10	1-1-0 4.52	2-0-0 3.14
Grindavik	1-1-0 2.32	—	0-0-2 1.71	1-0-1 1.43	1-0-1 1.98	0-1-1 3.68	0-1-1 1.72	1-0-1 2.71	1-0-1 4.31	0-1-1 2.86
IA Akranes	0-1-1 3.66	2-0-0 3.81	—	1-0-1 2.59	2-0-0 3.10	1-1-0 4.59	0-1-1 2.77	1-1-0 3.98	1-1-0 5.10	0-1-1 4.03
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2-0-0 3.81	1-0-1 4.15	1-0-1 2.87	—	1-0-1 3.44	1-0-1 4.71	2-0-0 2.90	2-0-0 4.02	1-1-0 5.15	1-1-0 4.12
IF Leiftur	1-1-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.51	0-0-2 2.37	1-0-1 2.04	—	1-1-0 4.28	0-1-1 2.38	0-1-1 3.43	2-0-0 4.87	1-0-1 3.62
IR Reykjavik	0-1-1 1.68	1-1-0 1.83	0-1-1 1.08	1-0-1 0.98	0-1-1 1.32	—	0-0-2 1.09	0-0-2 1.93	0-1-1 3.65	2-0-0 1.99
KR Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.52	1-1-0 3.80	1-1-0 2.70	0-0-2 2.56	1-1-0 3.10	2-0-0 4.57	—	0-1-1 3.91	1-1-0 5.10	1-1-0 3.87
Keflavik IF	2-0-0 2.38	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 1.57	0-0-2 1.54	1-1-0 2.05	2-0-0 3.57	1-1-0 1.62	—	0-0-2 4.36	1-1-0 2.73
Throttur Reykjavik	0-1-1 1.13	1-0-1 1.31	0-1-1 0.68	0-1-1 0.65	0-0-2 0.86	1-1-0 1.86	0-1-1 0.68	2-0-0 1.26	—	0-1-1 1.41
Valur Reykjavik	0-0-2 2.34	1-1-0 2.60	1-1-0 1.52	0-1-1 1.45	1-0-1 1.88	0-0-2 3.51	0-1-1 1.67	0-1-1 2.73	1-1-0 4.18	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.36	+7.3
Allowed	0.73	-6.9
Differential	0.88	+5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.89%	8.89%	5.56%	5.56%	2.22%	—	31.11%
1	8.89%	11.11%	3.89%	3.89%	0.56%	2.22%	30.56%
2	5.56%	3.89%	4.44%	1.67%	2.22%	—	17.78%
3	5.56%	3.89%	1.67%	2.22%	—	—	13.33%
4	2.22%	0.56%	2.22%	—	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	2.22%	—	—	—	—	2.22%
Total	31.11%	30.56%	17.78%	13.33%	5.00%	2.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.38	1.38	+0.00
SD	1.34	1.34	1.99
CV	0.97	0.97	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	—	55.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.28	-0.11
SD	1.50	1.18	1.88
CV	1.29	0.92	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.89	-0.56
SD	1.68	1.23	2.25
CV	1.26	0.65	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	16.67%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	38.89%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.22	+0.28
SD	1.04	1.31	1.96
CV	0.70	1.07	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
2	27.78%	—	—	—	—	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	38.89%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	0.83	+1.39
SD	1.63	1.29	2.17
CV	0.73	1.55	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	55.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.17	+0.00
SD	1.42	1.04	1.81
CV	1.22	0.89	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.67	-0.56
SD	1.18	1.08	1.54
CV	1.06	0.65	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	66.67%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	0.50	+0.89
SD	1.24	0.86	1.75
CV	0.90	1.71	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	50.00%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.28	-0.22
SD	0.94	1.49	1.86
CV	0.89	1.16	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.17	-0.67
SD	1.34	1.54	2.11
CV	0.89	0.71	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.83	-0.44
SD	1.14	1.58	1.89
CV	0.82	0.86	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Throttur Reykjavik	18	9.88	+8.12
2	Keflavik IF	28	22.55	+5.45
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	38	35.13	+2.87
4	IR Reykjavik	17	15.55	+1.45
5	KR Reykjavik	33	33.11	-0.11

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fram Reykjavik	20	25.54	-5.54
2	IF Leiftur	25	29.61	-4.61
3	Grindavik	19	22.90	-3.90
4	Valur Reykjavik	18	21.85	-3.85
5	IA Akranes	30	33.58	-3.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	7	Jul 20 – Sep 12	1 in 55
2	Throttur Reykjavik	1	Jun 1 – Jun 1	1 in 10
3	Valur Reykjavik	2	Jul 29 – Aug 8	1 in 9
4	Keflavik IF	2	Jun 2 – Jun 9	1 in 9
5	IA Akranes	4	Jun 28 – Jul 18	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	4	Jun 2 – Jun 24	1 in 52
2	IA Akranes	2	Aug 8 – Aug 16	1 in 30
3	Keflavik IF	2	Jul 9 – Jul 18	1 in 19
4	KR Reykjavik	2	Sep 20 – Sep 26	1 in 15
5	Grindavik	3	Jul 19 – Aug 9	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Throttur Reykjavik	4	May 18 – Jun 1	1 in 211
2	IR Reykjavik	4	Sep 1 – Sep 26	1 in 25
3	Keflavik IF	5	Aug 16 – Sep 20	1 in 21
4	Valur Reykjavik	4	Jul 29 – Aug 22	1 in 11
5	KR Reykjavik	8	May 19 – Jul 5	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	8	May 19 – Jul 5	1 in 41
2	KR Reykjavik	4	Jun 14 – Jul 9	1 in 36
3	IA Akranes	4	May 19 – Jun 1	1 in 20
4	Fram Reykjavik	6	May 19 – Jun 13	1 in 14
5	Grindavik	6	Jun 24 – Aug 9	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	41.19%	25.58%	16.27%	9.28%	4.49%	2.08%	0.83%	0.23%	0.05%	—
KR Reykjavik	23.46%	25.00%	22.79%	14.81%	8.00%	3.53%	1.48%	0.77%	0.16%	—
IA Akranes	24.41%	26.35%	21.49%	14.52%	7.57%	3.36%	1.64%	0.54%	0.10%	0.02%
Keflavik IF	0.54%	1.72%	3.49%	8.05%	13.74%	19.99%	21.78%	19.75%	9.50%	1.44%
IF Leiftur	7.39%	14.04%	19.28%	23.02%	16.29%	10.50%	5.70%	3.09%	0.65%	0.04%
Fram Reykjavik	2.01%	4.39%	8.90%	15.51%	21.69%	18.84%	14.55%	9.98%	3.69%	0.44%
Grindavik	0.63%	1.69%	4.29%	8.31%	13.85%	19.92%	21.51%	18.95%	9.25%	1.60%
Valur Reykjavik	0.35%	1.14%	3.29%	5.91%	12.06%	17.58%	22.04%	23.32%	12.02%	2.29%
Throttur Reykjavik	—	—	—	0.01%	0.14%	0.30%	1.39%	4.05%	17.85%	76.26%
IR Reykjavik	0.02%	0.09%	0.20%	0.58%	2.17%	3.90%	9.08%	19.32%	46.73%	17.91%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+20.00%

Clear Edge

46.67%26.67%26.67%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 70.44 Elo pts.

288 Elo

0.003 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.26 goals

Neutral

-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

41%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Tight Race

00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4 * Some Luck: 4 to 6 * Lucky: 6 to 7.99 * Wild Swing: 7.99 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.97 * Close: 0.97 to 1.45 * Off: 1.45 to 1.93 * Way Off: 1.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.47 points

Some Luck

05.0012

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

01.212.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.19%

Throttur Reykjavik

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

16.66%

Fram Reykjavik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

00.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.16

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

71%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

92%

Dominant

50%93%100%

Close Games

Expected

56%

Very Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Frequent

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.46

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.89

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.89

Near-Lock

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.15

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.77

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.151

Well Within Noise

00.1770.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	99.95%	0.05%
IA Akranes	99.88%	0.12%
KR Reykjavik	99.84%	0.16%
IF Leiftur	99.31%	0.69%
Fram Reykjavik	95.87%	4.13%
Grindavik	89.15%	10.85%
Keflavik IF	89.06%	10.94%
Valur Reykjavik	85.69%	14.31%
IR Reykjavik	35.36%	64.64%
Throttur Reykjavik	5.89%	94.11%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1998-05-18	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 3-3	1190	1613	9.2%	13.0%	77.8%	+1.0	1
1998-05-18	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1613	1190	77.8%	13.0%	9.2%	-1.0	1
1998-05-19	IR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1449	1325	62.3%	21.5%	16.3%	-1.1	1
1998-05-19	@ Grindavik	D 1-1	1325	1449	16.3%	21.5%	62.3%	+1.1	1
1998-05-19	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1598	1442	66.0%	19.6%	14.4%	-1.2	1
1998-05-19	@ IA Akranes	D 1-1	1442	1598	14.4%	19.6%	66.0%	+1.2	1
1998-05-19	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1551	1486	55.1%	24.6%	20.3%	+4.8	3
1998-05-19	@ IF Leiftur	L 0-2	1486	1551	20.3%	24.6%	55.1%	-4.8	0
1998-05-19	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1581	1432	65.3%	20.0%	14.8%	-1.3	1
1998-05-19	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1432	1581	14.8%	20.0%	65.3%	+1.3	1
1998-05-23	IF Leiftur	W 3-1	1448	1556	31.4%	28.1%	40.5%	+7.3	4
1998-05-23	@ Grindavik	L 1-3	1556	1448	40.5%	28.1%	31.4%	-7.3	3
1998-05-23	IA Akranes	W 3-1	1612	1597	48.6%	26.7%	24.8%	+5.0	4
1998-05-23	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-3	1597	1612	24.8%	26.7%	48.6%	-5.0	1
1998-05-23	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1326	1443	30.2%	27.9%	41.8%	-3.4	1
1998-05-23	@ IR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1443	1326	41.8%	27.9%	30.2%	+3.4	4
1998-05-23	Throttur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1433	1191	75.0%	14.6%	10.4%	-1.0	2
1998-05-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1191	1433	10.4%	14.6%	75.0%	+0.9	2
1998-05-24	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1481	1580	32.6%	28.2%	39.2%	-7.2	0
1998-05-24	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1580	1481	39.2%	28.2%	32.6%	+7.2	4
1998-05-27	Grindavik	D 1-1	1587	1455	63.2%	21.0%	15.8%	-1.1	5
1998-05-27	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1455	1587	15.8%	21.0%	63.2%	+1.1	5
1998-05-28	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1592	1432	66.4%	19.4%	14.2%	-1.2	2
1998-05-28	@ IA Akranes	D 1-1	1432	1592	14.2%	19.4%	66.4%	+1.2	3
1998-05-28	IR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1548	1323	73.4%	15.5%	11.1%	+1.2	6
1998-05-28	@ IF Leiftur	L 0-1	1323	1548	11.1%	15.5%	73.4%	-1.2	1
1998-05-28	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	1447	1617	24.3%	26.5%	49.1%	-8.2	4
1998-05-28	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-0	1617	1447	49.1%	26.5%	24.3%	+8.2	7
1998-05-28	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1192	1474	15.8%	21.1%	63.1%	+1.2	3
1998-05-28	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1474	1192	63.1%	21.1%	15.8%	-1.3	1
1998-06-01	IA Akranes	D 1-1	1472	1590	30.1%	27.9%	41.9%	+0.3	2
1998-06-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1590	1472	41.9%	27.9%	30.1%	-0.3	3
1998-06-01	Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1456	1194	76.9%	13.5%	9.6%	-7.2	5
1998-06-01	@ Grindavik	W 1-0	1194	1456	9.6%	13.5%	76.9%	+7.2	6
1998-06-01	KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1550	1586	41.4%	28.0%	30.6%	-0.3	7
1998-06-01	@ IF Leiftur	D 0-0	1586	1550	30.6%	28.0%	41.4%	+0.3	6
1998-06-01	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	1322	1625	14.6%	19.8%	65.7%	+6.5	4
1998-06-01	@ IR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1625	1322	65.7%	19.8%	14.6%	-6.5	7
1998-06-02	Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1433	1438	45.8%	27.3%	26.9%	-4.9	3
1998-06-02	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1438	1433	26.9%	27.3%	45.8%	+4.9	7
1998-06-08	IF Leiftur	L 1-2	1201	1549	12.3%	17.1%	70.6%	-1.3	6
1998-06-08	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1549	1201	70.6%	17.1%	12.3%	+1.3	10
1998-06-09	Grindavik	W 3-0	1590	1449	64.3%	20.5%	15.2%	+5.0	6
1998-06-09	@ IA Akranes	L 0-3	1449	1590	15.2%	20.5%	64.3%	-5.0	5
1998-06-09	Valur Reykjavik	W 6-1	1619	1428	69.8%	17.6%	12.7%	+5.3	10
1998-06-09	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-6	1428	1619	12.7%	17.6%	69.8%	-5.3	3
1998-06-09	Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1443	1473	42.4%	27.9%	29.7%	+3.6	10
1998-06-09	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1473	1443	29.7%	27.9%	42.4%	-3.6	2
1998-06-09	IR Reykjavik	W 3-0	1586	1328	76.5%	13.8%	9.7%	+2.9	9
1998-06-09	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1328	1586	9.7%	13.8%	76.5%	-2.9	4
1998-06-13	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1469	1624	25.9%	27.0%	47.1%	-6.0	2
1998-06-13	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1624	1469	47.1%	27.0%	25.9%	+6.0	13
1998-06-14	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1444	1447	46.1%	27.2%	26.7%	+3.1	8
1998-06-14	@ Grindavik	L 1-2	1447	1444	26.7%	27.2%	46.1%	-3.1	10
1998-06-14	IA Akranes	L 0-4	1551	1595	40.3%	28.1%	31.6%	-16.0	10
1998-06-14	@ IF Leiftur	W 4-0	1595	1551	31.6%	28.1%	40.3%	+16.0	9
1998-06-14	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-2	1325	1423	32.7%	28.2%	39.1%	+3.9	7
1998-06-14	@ IR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1423	1325	39.1%	28.2%	32.7%	-3.9	3
1998-06-14	Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1589	1199	86.7%	7.8%	5.5%	-1.9	10
1998-06-14	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1199	1589	5.5%	7.8%	86.7%	+1.8	7
1998-06-24	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1611	1587	49.7%	26.4%	23.9%	-0.6	10
1998-06-24	@ IA Akranes	D 1-1	1587	1611	23.9%	26.4%	49.7%	+0.6	11
1998-06-24	Grindavik	W 2-0	1630	1447	69.0%	18.0%	13.0%	+2.8	16
1998-06-24	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1447	1630	13.0%	18.0%	69.0%	-2.8	8
1998-06-24	IF Leiftur	W 1-0	1444	1535	33.7%	28.2%	38.1%	+4.3	13
1998-06-24	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1535	1444	38.1%	28.2%	33.7%	-4.3	10
1998-06-24	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1419	1463	40.3%	28.1%	31.6%	-4.2	3
1998-06-24	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1463	1419	31.6%	28.1%	40.3%	+4.2	5
1998-06-25	IR Reykjavik	W 3-1	1201	1329	28.9%	27.7%	43.3%	+7.7	10
1998-06-25	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1329	1201	43.3%	27.7%	28.9%	-7.7	7
1998-06-28	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	1611	1633	43.4%	27.7%	28.9%	+3.5	13
1998-06-28	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1633	1611	28.9%	27.7%	43.4%	-3.5	16
1998-07-05	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1444	1415	50.4%	26.2%	23.4%	-0.5	9
1998-07-05	@ Grindavik	D 2-2	1415	1444	23.4%	26.2%	50.4%	+0.5	4
1998-07-05	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 5-1	1530	1630	32.6%	28.2%	39.3%	+13.0	13
1998-07-05	@ IF Leiftur	L 1-5	1630	1530	39.3%	28.2%	32.6%	-13.0	16
1998-07-05	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	1321	1467	26.9%	27.3%	45.9%	-9.0	7
1998-07-05	@ IR Reykjavik	W 3-0	1467	1321	45.9%	27.3%	26.9%	+9.0	8
1998-07-05	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1588	1448	64.1%	20.5%	15.3%	-1.3	12
1998-07-05	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1448	1588	15.3%	20.5%	64.1%	+1.3	14
1998-07-06	IA Akranes	L 1-2	1209	1614	9.9%	14.0%	76.2%	-1.0	10
1998-07-06	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1614	1209	76.2%	14.0%	9.9%	+1.0	16
1998-07-09	IR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1615	1312	80.4%	11.5%	8.1%	+0.8	19
1998-07-09	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1312	1615	8.1%	11.5%	80.4%	-0.8	7
1998-07-09	KR Reykjavik	W 3-1	1617	1587	50.5%	26.1%	23.4%	+4.7	19
1998-07-09	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-3	1587	1617	23.4%	26.1%	50.5%	-4.7	12
1998-07-09	Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-5	1449	1208	75.0%	14.6%	10.4%	-21.0	14
1998-07-09	@ Keflavik IF	W 5-1	1208	1449	10.4%	14.6%	75.0%	+21.0	13
1998-07-09	IF Leiftur	W 1-0	1415	1544	28.9%	27.7%	43.4%	+4.7	7
1998-07-09	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1544	1415	43.4%	27.7%	28.9%	-4.7	13
1998-07-10	Grindavik	D 0-0	1476	1444	50.9%	26.0%	23.1%	-0.7	9
1998-07-10	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1444	1476	23.1%	26.0%	50.9%	+0.7	10
1998-07-18	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1621	1229	86.8%	7.8%	5.4%	+1.4	22
1998-07-18	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	1229	1621	5.4%	7.8%	86.8%	-1.4	13
1998-07-18	IA Akranes	L 0-1	1428	1616	22.7%	25.9%	51.4%	-2.8	14
1998-07-18	@ Keflavik IF	W 1-0	1616	1428	51.4%	25.9%	22.7%	+2.8	22
1998-07-19	IF Leiftur	D 0-0	1476	1539	37.6%	28.3%	34.1%	-0.1	10
1998-07-19	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1539	1476	34.1%	28.3%	37.6%	+0.1	14
1998-07-19	Grindavik	W 4-2	1312	1444	28.4%	27.6%	44.0%	+7.0	10
1998-07-19	@ IR Reykjavik	L 2-4	1444	1312	44.0%	27.6%	28.4%	-7.0	10
1998-07-20	KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1420	1582	25.2%	26.8%	48.0%	-8.5	7
1998-07-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1582	1420	48.0%	26.8%	25.2%	+8.5	15
1998-07-29	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1228	1412	23.1%	26.0%	51.0%	-7.8	13
1998-07-29	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1412	1228	51.0%	26.0%	23.1%	+7.8	10
1998-07-30	Grindavik	W 3-2	1539	1438	59.6%	22.7%	17.7%	+2.0	17
1998-07-30	@ IF Leiftur	L 2-3	1438	1539	17.7%	22.7%	59.6%	-2.0	10
1998-07-30	IR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1426	1319	60.3%	22.4%	17.3%	+2.1	17
1998-07-30	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1319	1426	17.3%	22.4%	60.3%	-2.1	10
1998-07-30	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1590	1476	61.2%	22.0%	16.8%	+3.9	18
1998-07-30	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1476	1590	16.8%	22.0%	61.2%	-3.9	10
1998-08-08	Keflavik IF	W 4-0	1623	1428	70.2%	17.3%	12.4%	+5.1	25
1998-08-08	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-4	1428	1623	12.4%	17.3%	70.2%	-5.1	17
1998-08-08	IA Akranes	W 4-2	1419	1619	21.7%	25.4%	52.9%	+8.0	13
1998-08-08	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 2-4	1619	1419	52.9%	25.4%	21.7%	-8.0	22
1998-08-09	KR Reykjavik	L 0-4	1436	1594	25.5%	26.9%	47.6%	-11.2	10
1998-08-09	@ Grindavik	W 4-0	1594	1436	47.6%	26.9%	25.5%	+11.2	21
1998-08-09	IF Leiftur	D 1-1	1316	1541	19.7%	24.2%	56.2%	+0.9	11
1998-08-09	@ IR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1541	1316	56.2%	24.2%	19.7%	-0.9	18
1998-08-10	Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-2	1472	1220	75.9%	14.1%	10.0%	+1.6	13
1998-08-10	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 2-4	1220	1472	10.0%	14.1%	75.9%	-1.6	13
1998-08-15	IF Leiftur	W 1-0	1605	1540	55.1%	24.6%	20.3%	+2.5	24
1998-08-15	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1540	1605	20.3%	24.6%	55.1%	-2.5	18
1998-08-16	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-4	1611	1473	63.9%	20.7%	15.5%	-22.6	22
1998-08-16	@ IA Akranes	W 4-0	1473	1611	15.5%	20.7%	63.9%	+22.7	16
1998-08-16	IR Reykjavik	W 4-1	1628	1317	81.0%	11.1%	7.8%	+1.9	28
1998-08-16	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-4	1317	1628	7.8%	11.1%	81.0%	-1.8	11
1998-08-16	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1423	1427	45.8%	27.3%	26.9%	-0.3	18
1998-08-16	@ Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1427	1423	26.9%	27.3%	45.8%	+0.3	14
1998-08-16	Grindavik	L 1-6	1218	1424	21.1%	25.0%	53.8%	-9.6	13
1998-08-16	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 6-1	1424	1218	53.8%	25.0%	21.1%	+9.6	13
1998-08-22	IA Akranes	L 0-3	1434	1588	26.0%	27.1%	46.9%	-8.7	13
1998-08-22	@ Grindavik	W 3-0	1588	1434	46.9%	27.1%	26.0%	+8.7	25
1998-08-22	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	1428	1630	21.5%	25.2%	53.3%	+0.8	15
1998-08-22	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1630	1428	53.3%	25.2%	21.5%	-0.8	29
1998-08-23	Keflavik IF	L 2-3	1496	1422	56.2%	24.2%	19.7%	-5.1	16
1998-08-23	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	1422	1496	19.7%	24.2%	56.2%	+5.1	21
1998-08-23	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1537	1209	82.5%	10.3%	7.2%	+1.2	21
1998-08-23	@ IF Leiftur	L 1-3	1209	1537	7.2%	10.3%	82.5%	-1.2	13
1998-08-23	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1315	1608	15.2%	20.4%	64.4%	-1.8	11
1998-08-23	@ IR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1608	1315	64.4%	20.4%	15.2%	+1.8	27
1998-09-01	IF Leiftur	W 1-0	1597	1539	54.2%	24.9%	20.9%	+2.6	28
1998-09-01	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1539	1597	20.9%	24.9%	54.2%	-2.6	21
1998-09-01	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1629	1491	63.9%	20.6%	15.4%	+3.5	32
1998-09-01	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1491	1629	15.4%	20.6%	63.9%	-3.5	16
1998-09-01	Grindavik	W 3-0	1427	1425	46.8%	27.1%	26.1%	+8.8	24
1998-09-01	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-3	1425	1427	26.1%	27.1%	46.8%	-8.8	13
1998-09-01	IR Reykjavik	L 1-3	1429	1314	61.2%	21.9%	16.8%	-10.0	15
1998-09-01	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1314	1429	16.8%	21.9%	61.2%	+10.0	14
1998-09-02	KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1207	1610	10.0%	14.1%	75.9%	-3.0	13
1998-09-02	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1610	1207	75.9%	14.1%	10.0%	+3.0	30
1998-09-12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	1416	1632	20.3%	24.6%	55.1%	+5.7	16
1998-09-12	@ Grindavik	L 0-1	1632	1416	55.1%	24.6%	20.3%	-5.7	32
1998-09-12	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1536	1436	59.4%	22.8%	17.8%	-1.0	22
1998-09-12	@ IF Leiftur	D 1-1	1436	1536	17.8%	22.8%	59.4%	+1.0	25
1998-09-12	Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1324	1204	61.7%	21.7%	16.6%	-0.8	15
1998-09-12	@ IR Reykjavik	D 2-2	1204	1324	16.6%	21.7%	61.7%	+0.8	14
1998-09-12	IA Akranes	W 2-0	1613	1599	48.3%	26.7%	25.0%	+5.8	33
1998-09-12	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1599	1613	25.0%	26.7%	48.3%	-5.8	28
1998-09-13	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1487	1419	55.5%	24.4%	20.1%	+4.1	19
1998-09-13	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	1419	1487	20.1%	24.4%	55.5%	-4.1	15
1998-09-20	IR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1491	1323	67.4%	18.9%	13.8%	-1.4	20
1998-09-20	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1323	1491	13.8%	18.9%	67.4%	+1.4	16
1998-09-20	Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1594	1205	86.6%	7.9%	5.5%	-1.4	29
1998-09-20	@ IA Akranes	D 2-2	1205	1594	5.5%	7.9%	86.6%	+1.4	15
1998-09-20	IF Leiftur	W 2-0	1627	1535	58.4%	23.2%	18.4%	+4.3	35
1998-09-20	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1535	1627	18.4%	23.2%	58.4%	-4.3	22
1998-09-20	KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1437	1619	23.3%	26.1%	50.6%	+5.3	28
1998-09-20	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1619	1437	50.6%	26.1%	23.3%	-5.3	33
1998-09-20	Grindavik	W 2-0	1415	1422	45.4%	27.4%	27.2%	+6.2	18
1998-09-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1422	1415	27.2%	27.4%	45.4%	-6.2	16
1998-09-26	Fram Reykjavik	W 4-2	1416	1490	36.0%	28.3%	35.7%	+6.0	19
1998-09-26	@ Grindavik	L 2-4	1490	1416	35.7%	28.3%	36.0%	-6.0	20
1998-09-26	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1531	1421	60.6%	22.2%	17.1%	+2.0	25
1998-09-26	@ IF Leiftur	L 1-2	1421	1531	17.1%	22.2%	60.6%	-2.0	18
1998-09-26	IA Akranes	D 1-1	1324	1592	16.7%	21.8%	61.5%	+1.1	17
1998-09-26	@ IR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1592	1324	61.5%	21.8%	16.7%	-1.1	30
1998-09-26	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1613	1631	44.0%	27.6%	28.3%	-9.0	33
1998-09-26	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	1631	1613	28.3%	27.6%	44.0%	+9.0	38
1998-09-26	Keflavik IF	W 1-0	1207	1443	18.8%	23.6%	57.6%	+5.9	18
1998-09-26	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1443	1207	57.6%	23.6%	18.8%	-5.9	28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1998-06-01	9.55%	Throttur Reykjavik	1194	1	@ Grindavik	1456	0
2	1998-07-09	10.39%	Throttur Reykjavik	1208	5	@ Keflavik IF	1449	1
3	1998-06-01	14.57%	@ IR Reykjavik	1322	1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1625	0
4	1998-08-16	15.46%	Fram Reykjavik	1473	4	@ IA Akranes	1611	0
5	1998-09-01	16.81%	IR Reykjavik	1314	3	@ Valur Reykjavik	1429	1
6	1998-09-26	18.82%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1207	1	Keflavik IF	1443	0
7	1998-08-23	19.68%	Keflavik IF	1422	3	@ Fram Reykjavik	1496	2
8	1998-09-12	20.34%	@ Grindavik	1416	1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1632	0
9	1998-08-08	21.70%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1419	4	IA Akranes	1619	2
10	1998-09-20	23.30%	@ Keflavik IF	1437	1	KR Reykjavik	1619	0
11	1998-06-02	26.93%	Keflavik IF	1438	1	@ Valur Reykjavik	1433	0
12	1998-09-26	28.34%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1631	2	@ KR Reykjavik	1613	0
13	1998-07-19	28.36%	@ IR Reykjavik	1312	4	Grindavik	1444	2
14	1998-07-09	28.92%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1415	1	IF Leiftur	1544	0
15	1998-06-25	28.95%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1201	3	IR Reykjavik	1329	1
16	1998-05-23	31.40%	@ Grindavik	1448	3	IF Leiftur	1556	1
17	1998-06-24	31.58%	Fram Reykjavik	1463	2	@ Valur Reykjavik	1419	1
18	1998-06-14	31.64%	IA Akranes	1595	4	@ IF Leiftur	1551	0
19	1998-07-05	32.56%	@ IF Leiftur	1530	5	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1630	1
20	1998-06-14	32.72%	@ IR Reykjavik	1325	3	Valur Reykjavik	1423	2
21	1998-06-24	33.68%	@ Keflavik IF	1444	1	IF Leiftur	1535	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1998-08-16	22.65	Fram Reykjavik	4	1473	15.46%	@ IA Akranes	0	1611	63.86%	20.68%
2	1998-07-09	21.04	Throttur Reykjavik	5	1208	10.39%	@ Keflavik IF	1	1449	74.96%	14.65%
3	1998-06-14	15.96	IA Akranes	4	1595	31.64%	@ IF Leiftur	0	1551	40.26%	28.10%
4	1998-07-05	13.05	@ IF Leiftur	5	1530	32.56%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1	1630	39.26%	28.18%
5	1998-08-09	11.21	KR Reykjavik	4	1594	47.57%	@ Grindavik	0	1436	25.53%	26.91%
6	1998-09-01	10.03	IR Reykjavik	3	1314	16.81%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1429	61.23%	21.95%
7	1998-08-16	9.58	Grindavik	6	1424	53.85%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1	1218	21.12%	25.03%
8	1998-09-26	9.00	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1631	28.34%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1613	44.04%	27.62%
9	1998-07-05	8.97	Fram Reykjavik	3	1467	45.85%	@ IR Reykjavik	0	1321	26.87%	27.28%
10	1998-09-01	8.76	@ Keflavik IF	3	1427	46.78%	Grindavik	0	1425	26.13%	27.09%
11	1998-08-22	8.72	IA Akranes	3	1588	46.94%	@ Grindavik	0	1434	26.01%	27.05%
12	1998-07-20	8.49	KR Reykjavik	3	1582	47.99%	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1420	25.21%	26.80%
13	1998-05-28	8.22	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	1617	49.15%	@ Keflavik IF	0	1447	24.34%	26.50%
14	1998-08-08	8.03	@ Valur Reykjavik	4	1419	21.70%	IA Akranes	2	1619	52.95%	25.35%
15	1998-07-29	7.82	Valur Reykjavik	3	1412	50.97%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	1228	23.05%	25.98%
16	1998-06-25	7.69	@ Throttur Reykjavik	3	1201	28.95%	IR Reykjavik	1	1329	43.31%	27.73%
17	1998-05-23	7.32	@ Grindavik	3	1448	31.40%	IF Leiftur	1	1556	40.52%	28.07%
18	1998-05-24	7.20	KR Reykjavik	2	1580	39.25%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1481	32.58%	28.18%
19	1998-06-01	7.17	Throttur Reykjavik	1	1194	9.55%	@ Grindavik	0	1456	76.94%	13.52%
20	1998-07-19	6.97	@ IR Reykjavik	4	1312	28.36%	Grindavik	2	1444	44.02%	27.62%
21	1998-06-01	6.46	@ IR Reykjavik	1	1322	14.57%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1625	65.67%	19.76%
22	1998-09-20	6.24	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1415	45.43%	Grindavik	0	1422	27.20%	27.37%
23	1998-06-13	5.99	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1624	47.07%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1469	25.91%	27.02%
24	1998-09-26	5.96	@ Grindavik	4	1416	36.04%	Fram Reykjavik	2	1490	35.67%	28.29%
25	1998-09-26	5.86	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1	1207	18.82%	Keflavik IF	0	1443	57.61%	23.57%