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1972 Úrvalsdeild Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

22 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1962.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

6 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

4.84 points above expected

22 points · 17.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

5.35 points below expected

6 points · 11.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 14 8 6 0 22 32 17 +15 17.16 +4.84
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 14 7 4 3 18 37 22 +15 15.63 +2.37
3 Keflavik IF 14 5 5 4 15 26 24 +2 16.37 -1.37
4 IA Akranes 14 7 1 6 15 24 22 +2 15.19 -0.19
5 Valur Reykjavik 14 3 7 4 13 20 22 -2 12.93 +0.07
6 Breidablik 14 5 3 6 13 16 24 -8 10.52 +2.48
7 KR Reykjavik 14 4 2 8 10 17 26 -9 12.84 -2.84
8 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 14 2 2 10 6 8 23 -15 11.35 -5.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1194 18 15.63 +2.37 82.2% 4 11 14 16 18 21 26
Fram Reykjavik 1193 22 17.16 +4.84 96.8% 4 12 15 17 19 22 28
Keflavik IF 1131 15 16.37 -1.37 38.3% 5 11 14 16 18 21 25
IA Akranes 1086 15 15.19 -0.19 54.0% 4 10 13 15 17 20 26
Valur Reykjavik 1040 13 12.93 +0.07 57.9% 2 8 11 13 15 18 25
KR Reykjavik 998 10 12.84 -2.84 22.8% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Breidablik 987 13 10.52 +2.48 84.3% 1 6 8 10 13 15 23
Vikingur Reykjavik 952 6 11.35 -5.35 5.0% 0 7 9 11 13 16 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA IV KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
1.45
1-0-1
1.79
1-0-1
1.72
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
1.57
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-1
2.89
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.01
 —
2-0-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.02
0-2-0
3.60
1-1-0
3.52
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.66
0-0-2
2.51
 —
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.88
0-0-2
2.57
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.73
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.96
 —
2-0-0
3.40
1-1-0
2.23
0-2-0
3.61
2-0-0
3.21
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.15
0-1-1
1.78
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-2
2.04
 —
0-0-2
2.12
1-0-1
2.58
2-0-0
3.13
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
3.89
0-1-1
2.42
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
3.32
 —
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
3.74
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.27
0-2-0
1.85
0-1-1
2.32
0-2-0
1.83
1-0-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.23
 —
2-0-0
3.05
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
2.31
1-1-0
1.71
0-0-2
2.38
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +4.7
Allowed 0.52 -13.3
Differential 0.90 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%4.46%5.36%2.68%—26.79%
17.14%7.14%5.36%2.68%0.89%0.89%24.11%
24.46%5.36%5.36%5.36%—0.89%21.43%
35.36%2.68%5.36%5.36%0.89%—19.64%
42.68%0.89%—0.89%1.79%—6.25%
5+—0.89%0.89%———1.79%
Total26.79%24.11%21.43%19.64%6.25%1.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.61 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 1.89
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%—14.29%——35.71%
121.43%—7.14%7.14%——35.71%
2——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%7.14%21.43%28.57%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.71 -0.57
SD 1.23 1.59 1.60
CV 1.08 0.93 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%21.43%————35.71%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
37.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
47.14%———7.14%—14.29%
5+———————
Total35.71%28.57%21.43%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.21 +1.07
SD 1.14 1.25 1.27
CV 0.50 1.03 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
17.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
27.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
321.43%—14.29%———35.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%7.14%28.57%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.57 +0.14
SD 1.20 1.40 2.18
CV 0.70 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—7.14%————7.14%
27.14%14.29%—14.29%——35.71%
3———7.14%——7.14%
47.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 1.57 +1.07
SD 1.78 1.28 2.06
CV 0.67 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%—14.29%—28.57%
17.14%—14.29%7.14%——28.57%
27.14%7.14%7.14%14.29%——35.71%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%7.14%28.57%21.43%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.86 -0.64
SD 0.97 1.46 2.02
CV 0.80 0.79 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%————21.43%
1—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
27.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
37.14%14.29%—14.29%7.14%—42.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%—21.43%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.71 +0.14
SD 1.23 1.82 1.96
CV 0.66 1.06 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—14.29%——28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
2—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
3——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.57 -0.14
SD 1.28 1.02 1.70
CV 0.90 0.65 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%28.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%—64.29%
17.14%—14.29%———21.43%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.57 1.64 -1.07
SD 0.94 1.15 1.38
CV 1.64 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 22 17.16 +4.84
2 Breidablik 13 10.52 +2.48
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 15.63 +2.37
4 Valur Reykjavik 13 12.93 +0.07
5 IA Akranes 15 15.19 -0.19

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 11.35 -5.35
2 KR Reykjavik 10 12.84 -2.84
3 Keflavik IF 15 16.37 -1.37
4 IA Akranes 15 15.19 -0.19
5 Valur Reykjavik 13 12.93 +0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 3 Jul 17 – Aug 9 1 in 64
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jul 29 – Aug 30 1 in 53
3 IA Akranes 4 Jun 24 – Jul 22 1 in 33
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 19 – Jul 16 1 in 13
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 Jul 25 – Jul 25 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 10 – Jul 17 1 in 98
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 20 – Sep 3 1 in 20
3 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 16 – Jul 25 1 in 19
4 IA Akranes 2 Aug 9 – Aug 12 1 in 14
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 May 28 – Jun 3 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 14 May 29 – Sep 23 1 in 57
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 Jul 22 – Sep 9 1 in 19
3 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 15 – Sep 6 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 12
5 Keflavik IF 6 May 28 – Jul 6 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 18 – Jul 25 1 in 31
2 KR Reykjavik 8 Jul 19 – Sep 3 1 in 13
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 May 29 – Jul 17 1 in 13
4 IA Akranes 4 Aug 9 – Aug 27 1 in 10
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 19 – Jul 22 1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fram Reykjavik36.66%23.40%16.39%10.71%6.47%3.49%2.12%0.76%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar18.70%20.76%19.12%15.11%11.40%8.15%4.77%1.99%
Keflavik IF22.39%22.24%19.22%14.71%9.87%6.29%3.67%1.61%
IA Akranes13.73%16.17%17.73%17.95%14.29%10.04%6.77%3.32%
Valur Reykjavik3.56%6.59%10.59%14.24%18.65%19.26%15.79%11.32%
Breidablik0.57%1.72%3.01%6.06%10.12%16.55%25.02%36.95%
KR Reykjavik3.25%6.52%8.83%13.44%16.98%19.14%17.70%14.14%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.14%2.60%5.11%7.78%12.22%17.08%24.16%29.91%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-5.36%
No Edge
33.93%26.79%39.29%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -18.63 Elo pts.
165 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.04 goals
Neutral
-2-0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.44 * Some Luck: 2.44 to 3.66 * Lucky: 3.66 to 4.88 * Wild Swing: 4.88 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.47 * Way Off: 2.47 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.63 * A Surprise: 0.63 to 1.01 * Several Surprises: 1.01 to 1.39 * Many Surprises: 1.39 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.04 points
Some Luck
03.058
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Pinpoint
01.544
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.80%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.99%
Vikingur Reykjavik
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.61

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.29
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
70%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.01
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.23 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.23 to 0.35 * Above Noise: 0.35 to 0.46 * Well Above Noise: 0.46 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.173
Well Within Noise
00.2300.6

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 99.24% 0.76%
Keflavik IF 98.39% 1.61%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 98.01% 1.99%
IA Akranes 96.68% 3.32%
Valur Reykjavik 88.68% 11.32%
KR Reykjavik 85.86% 14.14%
Vikingur Reykjavik 70.09% 29.91%
Breidablik 63.05% 36.95%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1972-05-28 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1077 1135 28.0% 28.3% 43.8% -14.2 0
1972-05-28 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1135 1077 43.8% 28.3% 28.0% +14.1 2
1972-05-28 Breidablik L 2-3 1103 1001 49.1% 27.9% 22.9% -11.9 0
1972-05-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1001 1103 22.9% 27.9% 49.1% +11.9 2
1972-05-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1053 1053 35.7% 28.4% 35.8% -9.8 0
1972-05-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1053 1053 35.8% 28.4% 35.7% +9.8 2
1972-05-29 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1066 1092 32.1% 28.4% 39.5% -9.6 0
1972-05-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1092 1066 39.5% 28.4% 32.1% +9.6 2
1972-05-31 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1013 1063 29.0% 28.3% 42.7% -24.4 2
1972-05-31 @ Breidablik W 3-0 1063 1013 42.7% 28.3% 29.0% +24.4 4
1972-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1102 1091 37.4% 28.4% 34.2% +19.0 4
1972-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1091 1102 34.2% 28.4% 37.4% -19.0 0
1972-06-04 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1150 1057 48.1% 28.0% 23.9% -1.6 3
1972-06-04 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1057 1150 23.9% 28.0% 48.1% +1.6 1
1972-06-04 IA Akranes L 0-2 1087 1063 39.2% 28.4% 32.4% -21.0 4
1972-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1063 1087 32.4% 28.4% 39.2% +21.0 2
1972-06-05 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 988 1043 28.4% 28.3% 43.3% +0.6 3
1972-06-05 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1043 988 43.3% 28.3% 28.4% -0.6 1
1972-06-10 Breidablik W 3-0 1084 989 48.3% 28.0% 23.7% +20.9 4
1972-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 989 1084 23.7% 28.0% 48.3% -20.9 3
1972-06-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1072 1058 37.7% 28.4% 33.9% +18.8 2
1972-06-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1058 1072 33.9% 28.4% 37.7% -18.8 1
1972-06-12 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1042 1121 25.5% 28.1% 46.3% +1.2 2
1972-06-12 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1121 1042 46.3% 28.1% 25.5% -1.2 5
1972-06-13 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1066 1148 25.1% 28.1% 46.7% -13.0 4
1972-06-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1148 1066 46.7% 28.1% 25.1% +13.0 5
1972-06-15 Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1039 1044 35.2% 28.4% 36.4% -36.7 1
1972-06-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1044 1039 36.4% 28.4% 35.2% +36.7 4
1972-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-3 1161 1090 45.4% 28.2% 26.5% -0.7 6
1972-06-18 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1090 1161 26.5% 28.2% 45.4% +0.7 3
1972-06-19 IA Akranes W 3-0 1120 1105 37.9% 28.4% 33.7% +27.3 7
1972-06-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1105 1120 33.7% 28.4% 37.9% -27.3 4
1972-06-23 Keflavik IF D 0-0 968 1160 14.9% 26.8% 58.4% +3.0 4
1972-06-23 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1160 968 58.4% 26.8% 14.9% -3.0 7
1972-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1078 1003 45.9% 28.1% 25.9% +22.4 6
1972-06-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1003 1078 25.9% 28.1% 45.9% -22.4 1
1972-07-06 Breidablik W 3-1 1147 971 56.9% 27.0% 16.1% +9.0 9
1972-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 971 1147 16.1% 27.0% 56.9% -9.1 4
1972-07-06 Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1157 1080 46.2% 28.1% 25.7% -0.7 8
1972-07-06 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1080 1157 25.7% 28.1% 46.2% +0.7 5
1972-07-08 IA Akranes L 2-3 1091 1100 34.5% 28.4% 37.1% -9.0 3
1972-07-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1100 1091 37.1% 28.4% 34.5% +9.1 8
1972-07-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 980 1053 26.2% 28.2% 45.7% -15.5 1
1972-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1053 980 45.7% 28.2% 26.2% +15.5 6
1972-07-16 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1109 1081 39.8% 28.4% 31.9% +26.2 10
1972-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1081 1109 31.9% 28.4% 39.8% -26.2 5
1972-07-16 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1157 1156 35.9% 28.4% 35.7% -9.3 8
1972-07-16 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1156 1157 35.7% 28.4% 35.9% +9.3 11
1972-07-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 962 965 35.4% 28.4% 36.1% +10.5 6
1972-07-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 965 962 36.1% 28.4% 35.4% -10.5 1
1972-07-19 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1069 1165 23.5% 28.0% 48.5% +1.1 7
1972-07-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1165 1069 48.5% 28.0% 23.5% -1.1 12
1972-07-21 Breidablik L 0-1 1055 973 46.8% 28.1% 25.1% -12.8 5
1972-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 973 1055 25.1% 28.1% 46.8% +12.8 8
1972-07-22 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1135 1070 44.7% 28.2% 27.1% +7.6 12
1972-07-22 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1070 1135 27.1% 28.2% 44.7% -7.6 7
1972-07-22 Fram Reykjavik D 4-4 1082 1164 25.1% 28.1% 46.8% +0.7 4
1972-07-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 4-4 1164 1082 46.8% 28.1% 25.1% -0.7 13
1972-07-25 Keflavik IF W 1-0 954 1147 14.8% 26.7% 58.5% +15.6 3
1972-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1147 954 58.5% 26.7% 14.8% -15.6 8
1972-07-29 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1132 1062 45.2% 28.2% 26.6% +7.9 10
1972-07-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1062 1132 26.6% 28.2% 45.2% -7.9 7
1972-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 970 1083 21.8% 27.8% 50.4% -6.7 3
1972-07-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1083 970 50.4% 27.8% 21.8% +6.7 6
1972-08-09 IA Akranes W 1-0 985 1143 17.6% 27.3% 55.1% +14.8 10
1972-08-09 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1143 985 55.1% 27.3% 17.6% -14.8 12
1972-08-12 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1128 1163 30.9% 28.4% 40.8% -8.3 12
1972-08-12 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1163 1128 40.8% 28.4% 30.9% +8.3 15
1972-08-12 Keflavik IF W 6-1 1089 1140 29.0% 28.3% 42.7% +43.4 8
1972-08-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-6 1140 1089 42.7% 28.3% 29.0% -43.4 10
1972-08-14 Breidablik D 0-0 1054 1000 43.3% 28.3% 28.5% -0.9 8
1972-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1000 1054 28.5% 28.3% 43.3% +0.9 11
1972-08-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1042 963 46.4% 28.1% 25.5% +7.6 7
1972-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 963 1042 25.5% 28.1% 46.4% -7.6 3
1972-08-19 Breidablik W 2-1 955 1001 29.5% 28.3% 42.1% +11.1 5
1972-08-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1001 955 42.1% 28.3% 29.5% -11.1 11
1972-08-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1133 1054 46.5% 28.1% 25.4% +7.6 10
1972-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1054 1133 25.4% 28.1% 46.5% -7.6 8
1972-08-20 IA Akranes D 2-2 1050 1120 26.5% 28.2% 45.3% +0.8 8
1972-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1120 1050 45.3% 28.2% 26.5% -0.8 13
1972-08-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1172 1096 46.0% 28.1% 25.9% -1.1 16
1972-08-21 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1096 1172 25.9% 28.1% 46.0% +1.1 11
1972-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1046 1140 23.7% 28.0% 48.3% -27.3 8
1972-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-0 1140 1046 48.3% 28.0% 23.7% +27.3 12
1972-08-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1171 967 59.4% 26.6% 14.0% -1.8 17
1972-08-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 967 1171 14.0% 26.6% 59.4% +1.8 6
1972-08-27 IA Akranes W 2-0 1097 1119 32.8% 28.4% 38.8% +20.8 13
1972-08-27 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1119 1097 38.8% 28.4% 32.8% -20.8 13
1972-08-29 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1019 1050 31.4% 28.4% 40.3% -8.4 8
1972-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1050 1019 40.3% 28.4% 31.4% +8.5 10
1972-08-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-5 990 1168 16.0% 27.0% 57.1% -11.0 11
1972-08-30 @ Breidablik W 5-2 1168 990 57.1% 27.0% 16.0% +11.0 14
1972-08-31 Breidablik L 3-4 1118 979 53.2% 27.5% 19.2% -12.5 13
1972-08-31 @ Keflavik IF W 4-3 979 1118 19.2% 27.5% 53.2% +12.5 13
1972-09-02 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1179 1059 51.2% 27.8% 21.1% -1.8 15
1972-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1059 1179 21.1% 27.8% 51.2% +1.8 11
1972-09-02 IA Akranes L 0-1 968 1098 20.1% 27.6% 52.3% -6.7 6
1972-09-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1098 968 52.3% 27.6% 20.1% +6.7 15
1972-09-03 KR Reykjavik W 4-0 1169 1010 55.2% 27.3% 17.5% +21.3 19
1972-09-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1010 1169 17.5% 27.3% 55.2% -21.3 8
1972-09-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1061 1177 21.4% 27.8% 50.8% +1.9 12
1972-09-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1177 1061 50.8% 27.8% 21.4% -1.9 16
1972-09-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1105 1175 26.5% 28.2% 45.3% -19.2 15
1972-09-09 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 1175 1105 45.3% 28.2% 26.5% +19.2 18
1972-09-09 Keflavik IF L 0-3 1063 1106 29.9% 28.3% 41.8% -25.0 12
1972-09-09 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1106 1063 41.8% 28.3% 29.9% +24.9 15
1972-09-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 989 962 39.6% 28.4% 32.0% +9.6 10
1972-09-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 962 989 32.0% 28.4% 39.6% -9.6 6
1972-09-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 992 1190 14.4% 26.7% 58.9% -5.0 13
1972-09-14 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1190 992 58.9% 26.7% 14.4% +5.0 21
1972-09-23 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1195 1038 55.1% 27.3% 17.6% -2.3 22
1972-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1038 1195 17.6% 27.3% 55.1% +2.3 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1972-07-25 14.79% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 954 1 Keflavik IF 1147 0
2 1972-08-09 17.60% @ Breidablik 985 1 IA Akranes 1143 0
3 1972-08-31 19.22% Breidablik 979 4 @ Keflavik IF 1118 3
4 1972-05-28 22.94% Breidablik 1001 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1103 2
5 1972-07-21 25.09% Breidablik 973 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1055 0
6 1972-08-12 28.98% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1089 6 Keflavik IF 1140 1
7 1972-08-19 29.54% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 955 2 Breidablik 1001 1
8 1972-06-04 32.39% IA Akranes 1063 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1087 0
9 1972-08-27 32.76% @ Keflavik IF 1097 2 IA Akranes 1119 0
10 1972-07-17 35.44% @ Breidablik 962 1 Vikingur Reykjavik 965 0
11 1972-07-16 35.68% Fram Reykjavik 1156 3 @ Keflavik IF 1157 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1972-08-12 43.39 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1089 28.98% Keflavik IF 1 1140 42.72% 28.30%
2 1972-06-15 36.72 Valur Reykjavik 4 1044 36.41% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1039 35.18% 28.41%
3 1972-08-24 27.31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1140 48.28% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1046 23.71% 28.00%
4 1972-06-19 27.26 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1120 37.88% IA Akranes 0 1105 33.71% 28.40%
5 1972-07-16 26.16 @ IA Akranes 3 1109 39.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1081 31.87% 28.38%
6 1972-09-09 24.96 Keflavik IF 3 1106 41.78% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1063 29.89% 28.33%
7 1972-05-31 24.39 KR Reykjavik 3 1063 42.72% @ Breidablik 0 1013 28.99% 28.30%
8 1972-06-24 22.41 @ IA Akranes 3 1078 45.92% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1003 25.92% 28.15%
9 1972-09-03 21.29 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1169 55.24% KR Reykjavik 0 1010 17.48% 27.27%
10 1972-06-04 20.96 IA Akranes 2 1063 32.39% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1087 39.22% 28.39%
11 1972-06-10 20.88 @ IA Akranes 3 1084 48.33% Breidablik 0 989 23.67% 28.00%
12 1972-08-27 20.81 @ Keflavik IF 2 1097 32.76% IA Akranes 0 1119 38.84% 28.39%
13 1972-09-09 19.21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1175 45.32% @ IA Akranes 1 1105 26.49% 28.19%
14 1972-06-03 18.97 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1102 37.39% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1091 34.20% 28.41%
15 1972-06-10 18.84 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1072 37.72% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1058 33.88% 28.41%
16 1972-07-25 15.64 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 954 14.79% Keflavik IF 0 1147 58.47% 26.74%
17 1972-07-08 15.53 KR Reykjavik 2 1053 45.68% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 980 26.15% 28.17%
18 1972-08-09 14.80 @ Breidablik 1 985 17.60% IA Akranes 0 1143 55.11% 27.29%
19 1972-05-28 14.15 Keflavik IF 3 1135 43.78% @ IA Akranes 1 1077 27.96% 28.26%
20 1972-06-13 13.05 Keflavik IF 3 1148 46.74% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1066 25.15% 28.11%
21 1972-07-21 12.81 Breidablik 1 973 25.09% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1055 46.80% 28.10%
22 1972-08-31 12.52 Breidablik 4 979 19.22% @ Keflavik IF 3 1118 53.25% 27.53%
23 1972-05-28 11.94 Breidablik 3 1001 22.94% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1103 49.12% 27.94%
24 1972-08-19 11.08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 955 29.54% Breidablik 1 1001 42.14% 28.32%
25 1972-08-30 11.00 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1168 57.06% @ Breidablik 2 990 15.95% 26.99%