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1956 Úrvalsdeild Season

15 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

9 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

3.85 points above expected

9 points · 5.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

4.76 points below expected

0 points · 4.76 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 4 1 0 9 14 6 +8 5.2 +3.85
2 KR Reykjavik 5 3 2 0 8 14 8 +6 5.2 +2.79
3 IA Akranes 5 2 2 1 6 11 6 +5 5.2 +0.79
4 Fram Reykjavik 5 2 0 3 4 10 12 -2 5.0 -0.97
5 IBA Akureyri 5 1 1 3 3 3 7 -4 4.7 -1.70
6 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 0 0 5 0 6 19 -13 4.8 -4.76

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1350 8 5.21 +2.79 96.2% 0 2 4 5 7 8 10
IA Akranes 1348 6 5.21 +0.79 74.8% 0 2 4 5 7 8 10
Valur Reykjavik 1347 9 5.15 +3.85 99.4% 0 2 4 5 6 8 10
Fram Reykjavik 1327 4 4.97 -0.97 40.9% 0 2 4 5 6 8 10
IBA Akureyri 1313 3 4.70 -1.70 26.9% 0 2 3 5 6 8 10
Vikingur Reykjavik 1311 0 4.76 -4.76 0.9% 0 2 3 5 6 8 10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IA KR VR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-0-1
1.29
1-0-0
1.41
0-0-1
1.29
0-0-1
1.29
1-0-0
1.42
IA Akranes
1-0-0
1.43
 —
0-1-0
1.50
0-1-0
1.35
0-0-1
1.38
1-0-0
1.44
IBA Akureyri
0-0-1
1.31
0-1-0
1.22
 —
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
1.26
1-0-0
1.34
KR Reykjavik
1-0-0
1.43
0-1-0
1.37
1-0-0
1.49
 —
0-1-0
1.37
1-0-0
1.49
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-0
1.42
1-0-0
1.33
1-0-0
1.46
0-1-0
1.34
 —
1-0-0
1.45
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-0-1
1.30
0-0-1
1.28
0-0-1
1.37
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
1.27
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%3.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%—23.33%
13.33%6.67%—3.33%3.33%—16.67%
26.67%——6.67%6.67%3.33%23.33%
33.33%3.33%6.67%6.67%——20.00%
43.33%3.33%6.67%———13.33%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total23.33%16.67%23.33%20.00%13.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.93
Mean allowed1.93
StdDev scored1.48
StdDev allowed1.48
Mean total goals/game3.87
Correlation (home vs away score)0.045
Sample size (games)15
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——20.00%———20.00%
1———————
220.00%——20.00%—20.00%60.00%
3———————
4——20.00%———20.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%—40.00%20.00%—20.00%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed2.40
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed1.82
Mean total goals/game4.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.000
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%—————20.00%
1———————
220.00%——20.00%——40.00%
3———20.00%——20.00%
420.00%—————20.00%
5+———————
Total60.00%——40.00%——100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.20
Mean allowed1.20
StdDev scored1.48
StdDev allowed1.64
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.185
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%——80.00%
1———————
2———————
3—20.00%————20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%40.00%20.00%20.00%——100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.60
Mean allowed1.40
StdDev scored1.34
StdDev allowed1.14
Mean total goals/game2.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.196
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—20.00%————20.00%
2———————
320.00%—20.00%20.00%——60.00%
4——20.00%———20.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%20.00%40.00%20.00%——100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.80
Mean allowed1.60
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed1.14
Mean total goals/game4.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.320
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
120.00%20.00%————40.00%
2———————
3——20.00%———20.00%
4—20.00%————20.00%
5+——20.00%———20.00%
Total20.00%40.00%40.00%———100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.80
Mean allowed1.20
StdDev scored1.79
StdDev allowed0.84
Mean total goals/game4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.702
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————20.00%—20.00%
1———20.00%20.00%—40.00%
2————40.00%—40.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total———20.00%80.00%—100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.20
Mean allowed3.80
StdDev scored0.84
StdDev allowed0.45
Mean total goals/game5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.134
Games played5

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 9 5.2 +3.85
2 KR Reykjavik 8 5.2 +2.79
3 IA Akranes 6 5.2 +0.79
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 5.0 -0.97
5 IBA Akureyri 3 4.7 -1.70

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 0 4.8 -4.76
2 IBA Akureyri 3 4.7 -1.70
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 5.0 -0.97
4 IA Akranes 6 5.2 +0.79
5 KR Reykjavik 8 5.2 +2.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 12 – Sep 16 1 in 49
2 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 25 – Aug 17 1 in 16
3 IA Akranes 2 Jun 11 – Jun 22 1 in 7
4 IBA Akureyri 1 Jul 29 – Jul 29 1 in 3
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 Jun 10 – Jun 10 1 in 3

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 11 – Aug 26 1 in 122
2 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 22 – Jun 25 1 in 7
3 IBA Akureyri 2 Jun 10 – Jun 12 1 in 7
4 IA Akranes 1 Aug 16 – Aug 16 1 in 3

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jun 12 – Sep 23 1 in 8
2 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 25 – Sep 23 1 in 8
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 11 – Jul 31 1 in 3
4 IBA Akureyri 2 Jul 29 – Jul 31 1 in 3
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 Jun 10 – Jun 10 66%

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 11 – Aug 26 1 in 8
2 IA Akranes 3 Jul 31 – Aug 26 1 in 4
3 KR Reykjavik 2 Aug 26 – Sep 23 1 in 2
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 22 – Jun 25 1 in 2
5 IBA Akureyri 2 Jun 10 – Jun 12 1 in 2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
Valur Reykjavik22.67%19.43%17.54%15.68%13.42%11.26%
KR Reykjavik21.54%19.72%17.09%16.25%14.13%11.27%
IA Akranes20.92%19.01%17.30%16.18%14.73%11.86%
Fram Reykjavik14.23%15.28%17.14%17.81%18.37%17.17%
IBA Akureyri11.00%13.57%15.69%17.38%19.91%22.45%
Vikingur Reykjavik9.64%12.99%15.24%16.70%19.44%25.99%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 88.7% 11.3%
KR Reykjavik 88.7% 11.3%
IA Akranes 88.1% 11.9%
Fram Reykjavik 82.8% 17.2%
IBA Akureyri 77.5% 22.4%
Vikingur Reykjavik 74.0% 26.0%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1956-06-10 IBA Akureyri W 2-0 1329 1317 37.5% 28.2% 34.3% +2.3 3
1956-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1317 1329 34.3% 28.2% 37.5% -2.3 0
1956-06-11 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1343 1324 38.6% 28.1% 33.3% +4.4 3
1956-06-11 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1324 1343 33.3% 28.1% 38.6% -4.4 0
1956-06-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1315 1340 32.6% 27.9% 39.5% -1.2 0
1956-06-12 @ IBA Akureyri W 1-0 1340 1315 39.5% 27.9% 32.6% +1.2 3
1956-06-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1341 1320 39.0% 28.0% 33.0% +2.8 6
1956-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1320 1341 33.0% 28.0% 39.0% -2.8 0
1956-06-22 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1347 1331 38.2% 28.1% 33.6% +2.3 6
1956-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1331 1347 33.6% 28.1% 38.2% -2.3 3
1956-06-25 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1329 1344 33.7% 28.1% 38.2% -1.1 3
1956-06-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1344 1329 38.2% 28.1% 33.7% +1.1 3
1956-07-29 IBA Akureyri L 1-3 1317 1314 36.3% 28.3% 35.4% -2.1 0
1956-07-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1314 1317 35.4% 28.3% 36.3% +2.1 3
1956-07-31 IA Akranes D 0-0 1316 1350 31.5% 27.6% 40.9% +0.1 4
1956-07-31 @ IBA Akureyri D 0-0 1350 1316 40.9% 27.6% 31.5% -0.1 7
1956-08-12 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1346 1315 40.4% 27.7% 31.9% +1.7 6
1956-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1315 1346 31.9% 27.7% 40.4% -1.7 0
1956-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1350 1344 36.7% 28.2% 35.0% -1.2 7
1956-08-16 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1344 1350 35.0% 28.2% 36.7% +1.2 9
1956-08-17 IBA Akureyri W 3-0 1347 1316 40.6% 27.7% 31.8% +3.2 9
1956-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1316 1347 31.8% 27.7% 40.6% -3.2 4
1956-08-26 IA Akranes D 3-3 1351 1348 36.2% 28.3% 35.6% +0.0 10
1956-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 1348 1351 35.6% 28.3% 36.2% +0.0 8
1956-08-26 Fram Reykjavik L 2-4 1313 1328 33.9% 28.1% 38.0% -1.8 0
1956-08-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1328 1313 38.0% 28.1% 33.9% +1.8 6
1956-09-16 Fram Reykjavik W 5-2 1345 1329 38.1% 28.1% 33.8% +2.5 12
1956-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-5 1329 1345 33.8% 28.1% 38.1% -2.5 6
1956-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1347 1351 35.4% 28.3% 36.3% +0.0 13
1956-09-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1351 1347 36.3% 28.3% 35.4% -0.0 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1956-08-16 35.01% Valur Reykjavik 1344 3 @ IA Akranes 1350 2
2 1956-07-29 35.39% IBA Akureyri 1314 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1317 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1956-06-11 4.38 @ IA Akranes 4 1343 38.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1324 33.32%
2 1956-08-17 3.22 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1347 40.55% IBA Akureyri 0 1316 31.76%
3 1956-06-21 2.81 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1341 38.95% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1320 33.04%
4 1956-09-16 2.48 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1345 38.09% Fram Reykjavik 2 1329 33.77%
5 1956-06-10 2.35 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1329 37.54% IBA Akureyri 0 1317 34.26%
6 1956-06-22 2.32 @ IA Akranes 2 1347 38.24% Fram Reykjavik 0 1331 33.64%
7 1956-07-29 2.13 IBA Akureyri 3 1314 35.39% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1317 36.34%
8 1956-08-26 1.81 Fram Reykjavik 4 1328 37.99% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1313 33.86%
9 1956-08-12 1.72 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1346 40.44% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1315 31.85%
10 1956-06-12 1.20 Valur Reykjavik 1 1340 39.51% @ IBA Akureyri 0 1315 32.58%
11 1956-08-16 1.18 Valur Reykjavik 3 1344 35.01% @ IA Akranes 2 1350 36.74%
12 1956-06-25 1.10 KR Reykjavik 3 1344 38.16% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1329 33.71%
13 1956-07-31 0.07 @ IBA Akureyri 0 1316 31.48% IA Akranes 0 1350 40.92%
14 1956-09-23 0.01 KR Reykjavik 1 1351 36.34% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1347 35.39%
15 1956-08-26 0.00 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1351 36.17% IA Akranes 3 1348 35.56%