1955 Úrvalsdeild Season

15 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

9 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

3.84 points above expected

9 points · 5.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

4.85 points below expected

0 points · 4.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	KR Reykjavik	5	4	1	0	9	21	3	+18	5.2	+3.84
2	IA Akranes	5	4	0	1	8	23	7	+16	5.1	+2.93
3	Valur Reykjavik	5	2	2	1	6	13	6	+7	5.0	+0.97
4	Vikingur Reykjavik	5	2	0	3	4	9	20	-11	4.9	-0.93
5	Fram Reykjavik	5	1	1	3	3	6	11	-5	5.0	-1.96
6	Throttur Reykjavik	5	0	0	5	0	2	27	-25	4.8	-4.85

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KR Reykjavik	1374	9	5.16	+3.84	98.8%	2	4	5	7	8	10
IA Akranes	1372	8	5.07	+2.93	95.8%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Valur Reykjavik	1364	6	5.03	+0.97	76.4%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Fram Reykjavik	1350	3	4.96	-1.96	23.4%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Vikingur Reykjavik	1345	4	4.93	-0.93	42.9%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Throttur Reykjavik	1330	0	4.85	-4.85	1.1%	2	4	5	6	8	10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FR	IA	KR	TR	VR	VR
Fram Reykjavik	—	0-0-1 1.35	0-0-1 1.35	1-0-0 1.47	0-1-0 1.41	0-0-1 1.44
IA Akranes	1-0-0 1.46	—	0-0-1 1.41	1-0-0 1.41	1-0-0 1.42	1-0-0 1.46
KR Reykjavik	1-0-0 1.46	1-0-0 1.40	—	1-0-0 1.56	0-1-0 1.42	1-0-0 1.41
Throttur Reykjavik	0-0-1 1.35	0-0-1 1.41	0-0-1 1.26	—	0-0-1 1.37	0-0-1 1.38
Valur Reykjavik	0-1-0 1.41	0-0-1 1.39	0-1-0 1.39	1-0-0 1.44	—	1-0-0 1.45
Vikingur Reykjavik	1-0-0 1.37	0-0-1 1.35	0-0-1 1.41	1-0-0 1.43	0-0-1 1.36	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	10.00%	30.00%
1	—	6.67%	—	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	20.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%	3.33%
3	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
4	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
5+	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
Total	30.00%	20.00%	3.33%	13.33%	13.33%	20.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.47
Mean allowed	2.47
StdDev scored	2.45
StdDev allowed	2.45
Mean total goals/game	4.93
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.640
Sample size (games)	15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	—	—	40.00%	—	—	60.00%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	20.00%	—	—	20.00%	—	40.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.00%	20.00%	—	40.00%	20.00%	—	100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.20
Mean allowed	2.20
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.167
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	—	—	20.00%	—	20.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	20.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	60.00%
Total	40.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	20.00%	—	100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.60
Mean allowed	1.40
StdDev scored	2.70
StdDev allowed	1.67
Mean total goals/game	6.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.675
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
4	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
5+	20.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	40.00%
Total	40.00%	60.00%	—	—	—	—	100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.20
Mean allowed	0.60
StdDev scored	2.39
StdDev allowed	0.55
Mean total goals/game	4.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.306
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	20.00%	40.00%	60.00%
1	—	—	—	20.00%	—	20.00%	40.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%	60.00%	100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.40
Mean allowed	5.40
StdDev scored	0.55
StdDev allowed	1.95
Mean total goals/game	5.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.421
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
1	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
5+	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
Total	60.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	20.00%	100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.60
Mean allowed	1.20
StdDev scored	2.41
StdDev allowed	2.17
Mean total goals/game	3.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.220
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%	40.00%
1	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	20.00%	—	—	20.00%	—	—	40.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.00%	—	—	20.00%	20.00%	40.00%	100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.80
Mean allowed	4.00
StdDev scored	2.05
StdDev allowed	2.74
Mean total goals/game	5.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.802
Games played	5

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KR Reykjavik	9	5.2	+3.84
2	IA Akranes	8	5.1	+2.93
3	Valur Reykjavik	6	5.0	+0.97
4	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	4.9	-0.93
5	Fram Reykjavik	3	5.0	-1.96

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Throttur Reykjavik	0	4.8	-4.85
2	Fram Reykjavik	3	5.0	-1.96
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	4.9	-0.93
4	Valur Reykjavik	6	5.0	+0.97
5	IA Akranes	8	5.1	+2.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	IA Akranes	3	Jul 28 – Aug 10	1 in 14
2	KR Reykjavik	2	Jun 13 – Jun 22	1 in 6
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	Jun 19 – Jun 19	1 in 3
4	Valur Reykjavik	1	Jun 20 – Jun 20	1 in 2
5	Fram Reykjavik	1	Jun 23 – Jun 23	1 in 2

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Throttur Reykjavik	5	Jun 14 – Sep 11	1 in 73
2	Fram Reykjavik	2	Aug 10 – Sep 4	1 in 6
3	IA Akranes	1	Jun 22 – Jun 22	1 in 2
4	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	Jun 13 – Jun 13	1 in 2
5	Valur Reykjavik	1	Aug 3 – Aug 3	1 in 2

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	5	Jun 13 – Sep 11	1 in 12
2	Valur Reykjavik	3	Jun 12 – Jul 27	1 in 5
3	IA Akranes	3	Jul 28 – Aug 10	1 in 4
4	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	Jun 19 – Jun 19	58%
5	Fram Reykjavik	1	Jun 12 – Jun 12	59%

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Throttur Reykjavik	5	Jun 14 – Sep 11	1 in 12
2	Fram Reykjavik	2	Jun 12 – Jun 19	1 in 3
3	Valur Reykjavik	2	Jul 27 – Aug 3	1 in 3
4	KR Reykjavik	1	Jul 27 – Jul 27	59%
5	IA Akranes	1	Jun 22 – Jun 22	59%

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
KR Reykjavik	23.01%	19.85%	16.30%	15.83%	13.86%	11.15%
IA Akranes	20.80%	18.35%	17.69%	16.02%	14.59%	12.55%
Valur Reykjavik	17.65%	17.81%	17.00%	16.57%	16.29%	14.68%
Vikingur Reykjavik	13.25%	14.93%	15.93%	17.75%	18.10%	20.04%
Fram Reykjavik	14.21%	16.19%	17.12%	17.17%	17.41%	17.90%
Throttur Reykjavik	11.08%	12.87%	15.96%	16.66%	19.75%	23.68%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik	88.8%	11.2%
IA Akranes	87.5%	12.6%
Valur Reykjavik	85.3%	14.7%
Fram Reykjavik	82.1%	17.9%
Vikingur Reykjavik	80.0%	20.0%
Throttur Reykjavik	76.3%	23.7%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1955-06-12	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	+0.0	1
1955-06-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	+0.0	1
1955-06-13	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 7-0	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	+7.7	3
1955-06-13	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-7	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	-7.7	0
1955-06-14	Throttur Reykjavik	W 8-0	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	+8.8	3
1955-06-14	@ IA Akranes	L 0-8	1356	1356	40.6%	18.9%	40.6%	-8.8	0
1955-06-19	Fram Reykjavik	W 4-3	1348	1356	39.5%	18.8%	41.7%	+1.1	3
1955-06-19	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 3-4	1356	1348	41.7%	18.8%	39.5%	-1.1	1
1955-06-20	Throttur Reykjavik	W 6-0	1356	1347	41.8%	18.8%	39.3%	+6.5	4
1955-06-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-6	1347	1356	39.3%	18.8%	41.8%	-6.5	0
1955-06-22	KR Reykjavik	L 1-4	1365	1364	40.7%	18.9%	40.4%	-3.0	3
1955-06-22	@ IA Akranes	W 4-1	1364	1365	40.4%	18.9%	40.7%	+3.0	6
1955-06-23	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	1341	1355	38.6%	18.8%	42.6%	-2.0	0
1955-06-23	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1355	1341	42.6%	18.8%	38.6%	+2.0	4
1955-07-27	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1367	1362	41.2%	18.9%	40.0%	-0.0	7
1955-07-27	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1362	1367	40.0%	18.9%	41.2%	+0.0	5
1955-07-28	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 6-1	1362	1349	42.4%	18.8%	38.8%	+4.5	6
1955-07-28	@ IA Akranes	L 1-6	1349	1362	38.8%	18.8%	42.4%	-4.5	3
1955-08-03	IA Akranes	L 2-5	1362	1366	40.0%	18.9%	41.1%	-2.5	5
1955-08-03	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 5-2	1366	1362	41.1%	18.9%	40.0%	+2.5	9
1955-08-10	IA Akranes	L 0-3	1357	1369	38.9%	18.8%	42.3%	-3.4	4
1955-08-10	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1369	1357	42.3%	18.8%	38.9%	+3.4	12
1955-08-21	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-4	1339	1345	39.7%	18.9%	41.5%	-4.5	0
1955-08-21	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1345	1339	41.5%	18.9%	39.7%	+4.5	6
1955-09-04	KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1353	1367	38.7%	18.8%	42.5%	-3.4	4
1955-09-04	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1367	1353	42.5%	18.8%	38.7%	+3.4	10
1955-09-10	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-4	1349	1360	39.1%	18.8%	42.1%	-4.4	6
1955-09-10	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1360	1349	42.1%	18.8%	39.1%	+4.4	8
1955-09-11	Throttur Reykjavik	W 6-1	1370	1334	45.7%	18.6%	35.7%	+4.2	13
1955-09-11	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-6	1334	1370	35.7%	18.6%	45.7%	-4.2	0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1955-06-19	39.47%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1348	4	Fram Reykjavik	1356	3
2	1955-06-22	40.42%	KR Reykjavik	1364	4	@ IA Akranes	1365	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1955-06-14	8.77	@ IA Akranes	8	1356	40.57%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	1356	40.57%
2	1955-06-13	7.72	@ KR Reykjavik	7	1356	40.57%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1356	40.57%
3	1955-06-20	6.50	@ Valur Reykjavik	6	1356	41.84%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	1347	39.32%
4	1955-07-28	4.48	@ IA Akranes	6	1362	42.36%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1349	38.81%
5	1955-08-21	4.48	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	1345	41.47%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	1339	39.69%
6	1955-09-10	4.42	Valur Reykjavik	4	1360	42.10%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1349	39.07%
7	1955-09-11	4.18	@ KR Reykjavik	6	1370	45.72%	Throttur Reykjavik	1	1334	35.66%
8	1955-08-10	3.37	IA Akranes	3	1369	42.30%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1357	38.88%
9	1955-09-04	3.36	KR Reykjavik	3	1367	42.47%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1353	38.71%
10	1955-06-22	2.95	KR Reykjavik	4	1364	40.42%	@ IA Akranes	1	1365	40.72%
11	1955-08-03	2.52	IA Akranes	5	1366	41.12%	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1362	40.03%
12	1955-06-23	2.00	Fram Reykjavik	3	1355	42.61%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1	1341	38.57%
13	1955-06-19	1.14	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	4	1348	39.47%	Fram Reykjavik	3	1356	41.68%
14	1955-07-27	0.01	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1367	41.17%	Valur Reykjavik	1	1362	39.98%
15	1955-06-12	0.00	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1356	40.57%	Fram Reykjavik	0	1356	40.57%