1954-55 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Aarhus GF

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Odense

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Aarhus GF

5.40 points above expected

25 points · 19.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Odense

3.62 points below expected

13 points · 16.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Aarhus GF Champion	18	12	1	5	25	38	24	+14	19.60	+5.40
2	AB Gladsaxe	18	10	3	5	23	42	28	+14	19.92	+3.08
3	Frem	18	8	5	5	21	34	27	+7	18.74	+2.26
4	KB Copenhagen	18	6	6	6	18	31	27	+4	19.82	-1.82
5	Esbjerg	18	7	4	7	18	38	37	+1	18.17	-0.17
6	Koge BK	18	6	5	7	17	32	37	-5	18.43	-1.43
7	B 1909	18	6	4	8	16	28	33	-5	14.47	+1.53
8	B 1903	18	6	3	9	15	21	28	-7	16.64	-1.64
9	Skovshoved	18	4	6	8	14	26	37	-11	17.58	-3.58
10	Odense Relegated	18	6	1	11	13	30	42	-12	16.62	-3.62

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
AB Gladsaxe	1491	23	19.92	+3.08	83.2%	6	14	17	20	22	26	33
Aarhus GF	1487	25	19.60	+5.40	94.7%	6	14	17	20	22	26	33
KB Copenhagen	1463	18	19.82	-1.82	36.1%	7	14	17	20	22	26	32
Frem	1451	21	18.74	+2.26	77.1%	6	13	16	19	21	25	32
Koge BK	1431	17	18.43	-1.43	39.8%	5	12	16	18	21	25	32
Esbjerg	1431	18	18.17	-0.17	53.0%	5	12	16	18	21	24	32
Skovshoved	1409	14	17.58	-3.58	20.0%	4	12	15	18	20	24	31
B 1903	1407	15	16.64	-1.64	38.4%	4	11	14	17	19	23	30
Odense	1403	13	16.62	-3.62	20.0%	3	11	14	17	19	23	29
B 1909	1378	16	14.47	+1.53	72.0%	3	9	12	14	17	21	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B1	ESB	FRE	KC	KB	ODE	SKO
AB Gladsaxe	—	0-0-2 2.87	0-1-1 3.33	2-0-0 3.55	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.03	2-0-0 3.29	2-0-0 3.12
Aarhus GF	2-0-0 2.68	—	2-0-0 3.16	1-0-1 3.65	2-0-0 2.92	2-0-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.76	0-0-2 3.02	2-0-0 3.16	0-0-2 3.13
B 1903	1-1-0 2.23	0-0-2 2.39	—	0-0-2 3.17	1-0-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.45	0-1-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.49	1-0-1 2.72	2-0-0 2.62
B 1909	0-0-2 2.01	1-0-1 1.91	2-0-0 2.39	—	0-1-1 2.24	0-0-2 2.11	1-0-1 2.06	0-2-0 2.17	0-1-1 2.57	2-0-0 2.18
Esbjerg	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.63	1-0-1 2.95	1-1-0 3.31	—	1-1-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 3.06	0-2-0 2.88
Frem	0-1-1 2.65	0-0-2 2.65	1-1-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.45	0-1-1 2.90	—	0-1-1 2.66	2-0-0 2.80	2-0-0 2.98	1-1-0 2.90
KB Copenhagen	1-1-0 2.71	0-1-1 2.80	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 3.50	1-0-1 3.09	1-1-0 2.90	—	0-1-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.37	0-1-1 3.17
Koge BK	0-0-2 2.53	2-0-0 2.53	1-0-1 3.06	0-2-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.75	1-1-0 2.59	—	1-0-1 3.06	0-2-0 2.91
Odense	0-0-2 2.27	0-0-2 2.40	1-0-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.49	0-0-2 2.57	1-0-1 2.19	1-0-1 2.50	—	1-0-1 2.63
Skovshoved	0-0-2 2.44	2-0-0 2.42	0-0-2 2.93	0-0-2 3.38	0-2-0 2.68	0-1-1 2.66	1-1-0 2.38	0-2-0 2.65	1-0-1 2.92	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.61	+4.9
Allowed	0.55	-4.8
Differential	0.95	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	6.67%	2.22%	3.33%	0.56%	—	15.00%
1	6.67%	10.00%	8.89%	3.89%	1.67%	1.67%	32.78%
2	2.22%	8.89%	7.78%	3.89%	2.78%	2.22%	27.78%
3	3.33%	3.89%	3.89%	1.11%	1.67%	—	13.89%
4	0.56%	1.67%	2.78%	1.67%	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	1.67%	2.22%	—	—	—	3.89%
Total	15.00%	32.78%	27.78%	13.89%	6.67%	3.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.78	+0.00
SD	1.33	1.33	1.85
CV	0.75	0.75	—
Max	7	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	1.56	+0.78
SD	1.53	1.25	1.90
CV	0.66	0.80	—
Max	7	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.33	+0.78
SD	1.49	1.19	1.83
CV	0.71	0.89	—
Max	6	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.56	-0.39
SD	0.86	1.29	1.54
CV	0.73	0.83	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.83	-0.28
SD	1.29	1.29	1.78
CV	0.83	0.71	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.06	+0.06
SD	1.13	1.47	1.66
CV	0.54	0.72	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.50	+0.39
SD	1.64	1.10	1.85
CV	0.87	0.73	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	55.56%	22.22%	—	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.50	+0.22
SD	1.13	1.25	1.73
CV	0.65	0.83	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	2.06	-0.28
SD	1.22	1.26	1.60
CV	0.68	0.61	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	2.33	-0.67
SD	1.53	1.46	2.33
CV	0.92	0.62	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	27.78%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	2.06	-0.61
SD	1.20	1.63	1.91
CV	0.83	0.79	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aarhus GF	25	19.60	+5.40
2	AB Gladsaxe	23	19.92	+3.08
3	Frem	21	18.74	+2.26
4	B 1909	16	14.47	+1.53
5	Esbjerg	18	18.17	-0.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Odense	13	16.62	-3.62
2	Skovshoved	14	17.58	-3.58
3	KB Copenhagen	18	19.82	-1.82
4	B 1903	15	16.64	-1.64
5	Koge BK	17	18.43	-1.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	AB Gladsaxe	6	Sep 12 – Nov 7	1 in 126
2	Aarhus GF	5	Aug 22 – Oct 3	1 in 64
3	Skovshoved	3	Oct 3 – Oct 24	1 in 24
4	Esbjerg	3	Aug 22 – Sep 12	1 in 14
5	B 1909	2	Oct 24 – Nov 7	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Odense	6	Aug 29 – Oct 24	1 in 196
2	KB Copenhagen	4	May 22 – Jun 5	1 in 100
3	Aarhus GF	3	Apr 7 – May 1	1 in 35
4	AB Gladsaxe	3	Nov 21 – Apr 7	1 in 28
5	Skovshoved	3	Aug 29 – Sep 25	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KB Copenhagen	6	Aug 22 – Oct 16	1 in 13
2	AB Gladsaxe	6	Sep 12 – Nov 7	1 in 11
3	Frem	5	Apr 7 – May 1	1 in 9
4	B 1909	3	Apr 3 – Apr 17	1 in 8
5	Aarhus GF	5	Aug 22 – Oct 3	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skovshoved	6	Nov 7 – Apr 24	1 in 22
2	AB Gladsaxe	5	Nov 21 – Apr 24	1 in 18
3	Odense	6	Aug 29 – Oct 24	1 in 15
4	B 1903	6	Apr 7 – May 22	1 in 12
5	KB Copenhagen	4	May 22 – Jun 5	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Aarhus GF	18.47%	15.35%	13.56%	11.69%	10.58%	9.11%	8.15%	5.83%	4.42%	2.84%
AB Gladsaxe	20.62%	16.34%	13.70%	11.78%	10.13%	8.55%	6.63%	5.59%	4.13%	2.53%
Frem	11.91%	12.33%	12.34%	11.95%	11.27%	10.03%	9.80%	8.81%	6.87%	4.69%
KB Copenhagen	18.27%	15.11%	13.99%	11.85%	10.37%	9.34%	7.41%	6.34%	4.41%	2.91%
Esbjerg	8.45%	10.25%	10.45%	11.54%	11.34%	11.56%	10.62%	10.28%	8.70%	6.81%
Koge BK	8.69%	10.58%	11.27%	11.23%	10.90%	10.86%	10.31%	10.22%	8.94%	7.00%
B 1909	1.30%	1.88%	2.98%	4.41%	5.80%	7.68%	9.77%	14.15%	20.02%	32.01%
B 1903	3.75%	5.46%	6.35%	8.12%	9.75%	11.17%	12.28%	13.11%	14.84%	15.17%
Skovshoved	5.38%	7.35%	8.57%	10.07%	10.51%	11.07%	12.59%	11.81%	12.16%	10.49%
Odense	3.16%	5.35%	6.79%	7.36%	9.35%	10.63%	12.44%	13.86%	15.51%	15.55%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-10.00%

No Edge

34.44%21.11%44.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -34.86 Elo pts.

245 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.11 goals

Neutral

-2-0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.9

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

18%

Aarhus GF, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.95 * Some Luck: 2.95 to 4.43 * Lucky: 4.43 to 5.9 * Wild Swing: 5.9 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.98 * Off: 2.98 to 3.98 * Way Off: 3.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.68 * A Surprise: 0.68 to 1.09 * Several Surprises: 1.09 to 1.5 * Many Surprises: 1.5 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.83 points

As Expected

03.699

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

Pinpoint

02.495

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.69%

Aarhus GF

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

19.96%

Odense

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

A Surprise

00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.12

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.92

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

57%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

66%

Even

50%67%100%

Close Games

Expected

63%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Frequent

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.642

Matchup Imbalance

0.13

Slight Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.59

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.42

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

34%

Upset-Prone

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

41%

Very Shaky

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.

Probability calibration

0.63

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.55

Overconfident

0.4108051.001.58919

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.088

Well Within Noise

00.1560.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
AB Gladsaxe	97.47%	2.53%
Aarhus GF	97.16%	2.84%
KB Copenhagen	97.09%	2.91%
Frem	95.31%	4.69%
Esbjerg	93.19%	6.81%
Koge BK	93.00%	7.00%
Skovshoved	89.51%	10.49%
B 1903	84.83%	15.17%
Odense	84.45%	15.55%
B 1909	67.99%	32.01%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1954-08-21	Koge BK	D 2-2	1445	1451	37.90%	22.39%	39.72%	+0.0	1
1954-08-21	@ Skovshoved	D 2-2	1451	1445	39.72%	22.39%	37.90%	-0.0	1
1954-08-22	B 1909	W 1-0	1426	1374	46.07%	22.24%	31.69%	+3.8	2
1954-08-22	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1374	1426	31.69%	22.24%	46.07%	-3.8	0
1954-08-22	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1435	1448	36.87%	22.38%	40.75%	-4.0	0
1954-08-22	@ Frem	W 2-1	1448	1435	40.75%	22.38%	36.87%	+4.0	2
1954-08-22	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1455	1455	38.77%	22.39%	38.84%	+0.0	1
1954-08-22	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1455	1455	38.84%	22.39%	38.77%	+0.0	1
1954-08-22	B 1903	W 2-1	1438	1425	40.69%	22.38%	36.93%	+4.0	2
1954-08-22	@ Odense	L 1-2	1425	1438	36.93%	22.38%	40.69%	-4.0	0
1954-08-29	AB Gladsaxe	W 4-3	1453	1455	38.47%	22.39%	39.14%	+3.9	4
1954-08-29	@ Aarhus GF	L 3-4	1455	1453	39.14%	22.39%	38.47%	-3.9	1
1954-08-29	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1370	1455	27.69%	22.01%	50.30%	-5.5	0
1954-08-29	@ B 1909	W 3-1	1455	1370	50.30%	22.01%	27.69%	+5.5	3
1954-08-29	Esbjerg	L 2-3	1421	1430	37.55%	22.38%	40.06%	-3.9	0
1954-08-29	@ B 1903	W 3-2	1430	1421	40.06%	22.38%	37.55%	+3.9	4
1954-08-29	Skovshoved	W 3-1	1431	1445	36.77%	22.38%	40.85%	+7.5	2
1954-08-29	@ Frem	L 1-3	1445	1431	40.85%	22.38%	36.77%	-7.6	1
1954-08-29	Odense	W 2-1	1451	1442	40.14%	22.38%	37.48%	+4.1	3
1954-08-29	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1442	1451	37.48%	22.38%	40.14%	-4.1	2
1954-09-11	Skovshoved	W 2-0	1417	1438	35.90%	22.36%	41.74%	+8.9	2
1954-09-11	@ B 1903	L 0-2	1438	1417	41.74%	22.36%	35.90%	-8.9	1
1954-09-12	B 1909	W 4-2	1451	1365	50.53%	21.99%	27.47%	+4.9	3
1954-09-12	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1365	1451	27.47%	21.99%	50.53%	-4.9	0
1954-09-12	Frem	W 3-1	1434	1438	38.11%	22.39%	39.51%	+7.4	6
1954-09-12	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1438	1434	39.51%	22.39%	38.11%	-7.4	2
1954-09-12	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1456	1460	38.15%	22.39%	39.47%	+0.0	4
1954-09-12	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1460	1456	39.47%	22.39%	38.15%	-0.0	4
1954-09-12	Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1438	1456	36.21%	22.37%	41.42%	-7.9	2
1954-09-12	@ Odense	W 2-0	1456	1438	41.42%	22.37%	36.21%	+7.9	6
1954-09-25	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1429	1456	35.01%	22.35%	42.65%	-11.2	1
1954-09-25	@ Skovshoved	W 3-0	1456	1429	42.65%	22.35%	35.01%	+11.2	5
1954-09-26	B 1903	W 3-0	1464	1426	44.22%	22.31%	33.47%	+10.8	8
1954-09-26	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1426	1464	33.47%	22.31%	44.22%	-10.8	2
1954-09-26	Koge BK	D 2-2	1360	1456	26.38%	21.90%	51.72%	+0.5	1
1954-09-26	@ B 1909	D 2-2	1456	1360	51.72%	21.90%	26.38%	-0.5	5
1954-09-26	Odense	W 5-1	1431	1430	38.94%	22.39%	38.68%	+13.2	4
1954-09-26	@ Frem	L 1-5	1430	1431	38.68%	22.39%	38.94%	-13.2	2
1954-09-26	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1460	1441	41.54%	22.37%	36.09%	+4.0	6
1954-09-26	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1441	1460	36.09%	22.37%	41.54%	-4.0	6
1954-10-02	Frem	D 1-1	1464	1444	41.62%	22.37%	36.01%	-0.1	7
1954-10-02	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1444	1464	36.01%	22.37%	41.62%	+0.1	5
1954-10-03	B 1909	W 1-0	1475	1360	54.03%	21.70%	24.28%	+3.0	10
1954-10-03	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1360	1475	24.28%	21.70%	54.03%	-3.0	1
1954-10-03	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1467	1437	43.07%	22.34%	34.59%	+3.8	7
1954-10-03	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1437	1467	34.59%	22.34%	43.07%	-3.8	6
1954-10-03	B 1903	L 0-2	1455	1415	44.43%	22.30%	33.26%	-9.3	5
1954-10-03	@ Koge BK	W 2-0	1415	1455	33.26%	22.30%	44.43%	+9.3	4
1954-10-03	Skovshoved	L 1-4	1417	1418	38.72%	22.39%	38.89%	-10.2	2
1954-10-03	@ Odense	W 4-1	1418	1417	38.89%	22.39%	38.72%	+10.2	3
1954-10-16	KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1424	1464	33.33%	22.30%	44.36%	-10.8	4
1954-10-16	@ B 1903	W 3-0	1464	1424	44.36%	22.30%	33.33%	+10.8	9
1954-10-17	Odense	W 2-1	1471	1407	47.67%	22.17%	30.16%	+3.4	9
1954-10-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1407	1471	30.16%	22.17%	47.67%	-3.4	2
1954-10-17	Frem	L 2-4	1357	1444	27.36%	21.99%	50.65%	-4.9	1
1954-10-17	@ B 1909	W 4-2	1444	1357	50.65%	21.99%	27.36%	+4.9	7
1954-10-17	Koge BK	L 3-4	1433	1446	37.01%	22.38%	40.61%	-3.7	6
1954-10-17	@ Esbjerg	W 4-3	1446	1433	40.61%	22.38%	37.01%	+3.7	7
1954-10-17	Aarhus GF	W 3-2	1428	1478	31.90%	22.25%	45.85%	+4.5	5
1954-10-17	@ Skovshoved	L 2-3	1478	1428	45.85%	22.25%	31.90%	-4.5	10
1954-10-23	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1449	1474	35.29%	22.35%	42.36%	-4.1	7
1954-10-23	@ Frem	W 1-0	1474	1449	42.36%	22.35%	35.29%	+4.1	11
1954-10-24	Koge BK	L 2-3	1474	1450	42.24%	22.36%	35.41%	-4.2	10
1954-10-24	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-2	1450	1474	35.41%	22.36%	42.24%	+4.2	9
1954-10-24	B 1909	L 1-2	1414	1352	47.32%	22.19%	30.49%	-4.9	4
1954-10-24	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1352	1414	30.49%	22.19%	47.32%	+4.9	3
1954-10-24	Skovshoved	L 1-2	1475	1432	44.76%	22.29%	32.95%	-4.7	9
1954-10-24	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1432	1475	32.95%	22.29%	44.76%	+4.7	7
1954-10-24	Esbjerg	L 1-5	1403	1429	35.14%	22.35%	42.51%	-12.2	2
1954-10-24	@ Odense	W 5-1	1429	1403	42.51%	22.35%	35.14%	+12.2	8
1954-11-07	Skovshoved	W 5-2	1357	1437	28.23%	22.05%	49.72%	+10.9	5
1954-11-07	@ B 1909	L 2-5	1437	1357	49.72%	22.05%	28.23%	-10.9	7
1954-11-07	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1442	1469	34.91%	22.35%	42.74%	-3.9	8
1954-11-07	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1469	1442	42.74%	22.35%	34.91%	+3.8	12
1954-11-07	Frem	L 2-4	1409	1445	33.74%	22.32%	43.95%	-5.8	4
1954-11-07	@ B 1903	W 4-2	1445	1409	43.95%	22.32%	33.74%	+5.8	9
1954-11-07	Odense	L 2-4	1470	1391	49.59%	22.06%	28.35%	-7.9	9
1954-11-07	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-2	1391	1470	28.35%	22.06%	49.59%	+7.9	4
1954-11-07	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1454	1478	35.34%	22.35%	42.31%	-3.9	9
1954-11-07	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1478	1454	42.31%	22.35%	35.34%	+3.9	13
1954-11-21	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1473	1462	40.41%	22.38%	37.21%	-0.1	13
1954-11-21	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1462	1473	37.21%	22.38%	40.41%	+0.1	10
1954-11-21	B 1903	L 1-2	1482	1403	49.65%	22.05%	28.30%	-5.1	13
1954-11-21	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1403	1482	28.30%	22.05%	49.65%	+5.1	6
1954-11-21	Frem	L 2-4	1450	1451	38.65%	22.39%	38.97%	-6.5	9
1954-11-21	@ Koge BK	W 4-2	1451	1450	38.97%	22.39%	38.65%	+6.5	11
1954-11-21	B 1909	W 4-1	1399	1368	43.20%	22.34%	34.47%	+9.3	6
1954-11-21	@ Odense	L 1-4	1368	1399	34.47%	22.34%	43.20%	-9.3	5
1954-11-21	Esbjerg	D 2-2	1426	1438	37.15%	22.38%	40.47%	+0.1	8
1954-11-21	@ Skovshoved	D 2-2	1438	1426	40.47%	22.38%	37.15%	-0.0	9
1955-03-20	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1438	1426	40.46%	22.38%	37.16%	-0.1	10
1955-03-20	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1426	1438	37.16%	22.38%	40.46%	+0.1	9
1955-04-03	Frem	W 2-1	1473	1457	41.05%	22.37%	36.57%	+4.0	15
1955-04-03	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1457	1473	36.57%	22.37%	41.05%	-4.0	11
1955-04-03	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1477	1462	40.95%	22.38%	36.67%	-7.6	13
1955-04-03	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1462	1477	36.67%	22.38%	40.95%	+7.6	12
1955-04-03	Esbjerg	D 2-2	1359	1438	28.34%	22.06%	49.60%	+0.4	6
1955-04-03	@ B 1909	D 2-2	1438	1359	49.60%	22.06%	28.34%	-0.4	11
1955-04-03	Odense	W 1-0	1408	1408	38.76%	22.39%	38.85%	+4.4	8
1955-04-03	@ B 1903	L 0-1	1408	1408	38.85%	22.39%	38.76%	-4.4	6
1955-04-07	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1437	1470	34.29%	22.33%	43.38%	+4.3	13
1955-04-07	@ Esbjerg	L 2-3	1470	1437	43.38%	22.33%	34.29%	-4.3	13
1955-04-07	B 1903	D 0-0	1453	1412	44.56%	22.30%	33.14%	-0.3	12
1955-04-07	@ Frem	D 0-0	1412	1453	33.14%	22.30%	44.56%	+0.3	9
1955-04-07	Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1443	1477	34.10%	22.33%	43.58%	+4.9	11
1955-04-07	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1477	1443	43.58%	22.33%	34.10%	-4.9	15
1955-04-08	KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1404	1470	29.95%	22.16%	47.89%	-3.2	6
1955-04-08	@ Odense	W 3-2	1470	1404	47.89%	22.16%	29.95%	+3.2	14
1955-04-08	B 1909	L 0-1	1426	1359	48.08%	22.15%	29.77%	-5.3	9
1955-04-08	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1359	1426	29.77%	22.15%	48.08%	+5.3	8
1955-04-10	Koge BK	W 3-1	1453	1448	39.51%	22.39%	38.11%	+7.1	14
1955-04-10	@ Frem	L 1-3	1448	1453	38.11%	22.39%	39.51%	-7.2	11
1955-04-16	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1421	1473	31.70%	22.24%	46.06%	+0.3	10
1955-04-16	@ Skovshoved	D 1-1	1473	1421	46.06%	22.24%	31.70%	-0.3	15
1955-04-17	Frem	D 0-0	1465	1460	39.52%	22.39%	38.09%	-0.0	14
1955-04-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1460	1465	38.09%	22.39%	39.52%	+0.0	15
1955-04-17	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1364	1472	25.04%	21.78%	53.18%	+15.8	10
1955-04-17	@ B 1909	L 0-3	1472	1364	53.18%	21.78%	25.04%	-15.8	15
1955-04-17	Odense	L 3-4	1442	1401	44.56%	22.30%	33.14%	-4.3	13
1955-04-17	@ Esbjerg	W 4-3	1401	1442	33.14%	22.30%	44.56%	+4.3	8
1955-04-17	Koge BK	L 0-1	1413	1441	34.83%	22.34%	42.82%	-4.1	9
1955-04-17	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1441	1413	42.82%	22.34%	34.83%	+4.1	13
1955-04-24	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1409	1465	31.12%	22.22%	46.67%	+0.3	10
1955-04-24	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1465	1409	46.67%	22.22%	31.12%	-0.3	15
1955-04-24	Skovshoved	D 2-2	1445	1421	42.20%	22.36%	35.44%	-0.1	14
1955-04-24	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1421	1445	35.44%	22.36%	42.20%	+0.1	11
1955-04-24	Esbjerg	D 3-3	1460	1437	42.08%	22.36%	35.56%	-0.1	16
1955-04-24	@ Frem	D 3-3	1437	1460	35.56%	22.36%	42.08%	+0.1	14
1955-05-01	Skovshoved	L 1-3	1456	1421	43.75%	22.32%	33.93%	-8.0	15
1955-05-01	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1421	1456	33.93%	22.32%	43.75%	+8.0	13
1955-05-01	B 1909	W 1-0	1460	1380	49.74%	22.05%	28.21%	+3.4	18
1955-05-01	@ Frem	L 0-1	1380	1460	28.21%	22.05%	49.74%	-3.4	10
1955-05-01	B 1903	D 1-1	1473	1409	47.60%	22.17%	30.22%	-0.4	16
1955-05-01	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1409	1473	30.22%	22.17%	47.60%	+0.4	11
1955-05-01	Esbjerg	L 1-2	1445	1437	39.91%	22.38%	37.70%	-4.3	14
1955-05-01	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1437	1445	37.70%	22.38%	39.91%	+4.3	16
1955-05-01	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1405	1465	30.68%	22.20%	47.12%	-10.1	8
1955-05-01	@ Odense	W 3-0	1465	1405	47.12%	22.20%	30.68%	+10.1	17
1955-05-11	Odense	D 1-1	1377	1395	36.23%	22.37%	41.40%	+0.1	11
1955-05-11	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1395	1377	41.40%	22.37%	36.23%	-0.1	9
1955-05-18	KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1464	1472	37.59%	22.38%	40.03%	-15.5	18
1955-05-18	@ Frem	W 4-0	1472	1464	40.03%	22.38%	37.59%	+15.5	18
1955-05-19	Esbjerg	W 6-2	1448	1442	39.79%	22.38%	37.83%	+11.0	17
1955-05-19	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-6	1442	1448	37.83%	22.38%	39.79%	-11.0	16
1955-05-19	Koge BK	W 3-2	1475	1441	43.64%	22.32%	34.03%	+3.6	19
1955-05-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1441	1475	34.03%	22.32%	43.64%	-3.6	14
1955-05-19	B 1903	W 3-2	1377	1409	34.26%	22.33%	43.41%	+4.3	13
1955-05-19	@ B 1909	L 2-3	1409	1377	43.41%	22.33%	34.26%	-4.3	11
1955-05-19	Odense	L 0-1	1429	1395	43.69%	22.32%	33.98%	-4.9	13
1955-05-19	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1395	1429	33.98%	22.32%	43.69%	+4.9	11
1955-05-22	Skovshoved	W 7-2	1479	1425	46.34%	22.23%	31.43%	+11.5	21
1955-05-22	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-7	1425	1479	31.43%	22.23%	46.34%	-11.5	13
1955-05-22	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1431	1488	31.05%	22.21%	46.73%	+5.2	18
1955-05-22	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1488	1431	46.73%	22.21%	31.05%	-5.2	18
1955-05-22	Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1405	1460	31.38%	22.23%	46.39%	-7.1	11
1955-05-22	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1460	1405	46.39%	22.23%	31.38%	+7.1	19
1955-05-22	B 1909	D 1-1	1437	1381	46.60%	22.22%	31.18%	-0.4	15
1955-05-22	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1381	1437	31.18%	22.22%	46.60%	+0.4	14
1955-05-22	Frem	L 1-2	1400	1448	32.15%	22.26%	45.59%	-3.6	11
1955-05-22	@ Odense	W 2-1	1448	1400	45.59%	22.26%	32.15%	+3.6	20
1955-05-25	Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1483	1467	41.08%	22.37%	36.54%	-4.6	18
1955-05-25	@ KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1467	1483	36.54%	22.37%	41.08%	+4.6	21
1955-05-29	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1382	1490	24.98%	21.77%	53.25%	-8.5	14
1955-05-29	@ B 1909	W 3-0	1490	1382	53.25%	21.77%	24.98%	+8.5	23
1955-05-30	Odense	W 4-1	1471	1396	49.10%	22.09%	28.81%	+8.1	23
1955-05-30	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1396	1471	28.81%	22.09%	49.10%	-8.1	11
1955-05-30	Koge BK	L 2-5	1478	1437	44.57%	22.30%	33.13%	-9.9	18
1955-05-30	@ KB Copenhagen	W 5-2	1437	1478	33.13%	22.30%	44.57%	+9.9	17
1955-05-30	B 1903	L 0-1	1413	1398	40.96%	22.38%	36.66%	-4.6	13
1955-05-30	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1398	1413	36.66%	22.38%	40.96%	+4.6	13
1955-06-04	Frem	D 1-1	1408	1452	32.82%	22.29%	44.89%	+0.3	14
1955-06-04	@ Skovshoved	D 1-1	1452	1408	44.89%	22.29%	32.82%	-0.3	21
1955-06-05	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1499	1479	41.55%	22.37%	36.08%	-7.6	23
1955-06-05	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1479	1499	36.08%	22.37%	41.55%	+7.7	25
1955-06-05	B 1903	L 1-2	1436	1403	43.49%	22.33%	34.18%	-4.6	18
1955-06-05	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1403	1436	34.18%	22.33%	43.49%	+4.6	15
1955-06-05	B 1909	L 1-2	1468	1373	51.59%	21.91%	26.49%	-5.3	18
1955-06-05	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1373	1468	26.49%	21.91%	51.59%	+5.3	16
1955-06-05	Koge BK	W 5-1	1388	1447	30.83%	22.20%	46.96%	+15.5	13
1955-06-05	@ Odense	L 1-5	1447	1388	46.96%	22.20%	30.83%	-15.5	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1955-04-17	25.04%	@ B 1909	1364	3	Aarhus GF	1472	0
2	1955-06-05	26.49%	B 1909	1373	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1468	1
3	1954-11-07	28.23%	@ B 1909	1357	5	Skovshoved	1437	2
4	1954-11-21	28.30%	B 1903	1403	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1482	1
5	1954-11-07	28.35%	Odense	1391	4	@ KB Copenhagen	1470	2
6	1955-04-08	29.77%	B 1909	1359	1	@ Skovshoved	1426	0
7	1954-10-24	30.49%	B 1909	1352	2	@ B 1903	1414	1
8	1955-06-05	30.83%	@ Odense	1388	5	Koge BK	1447	1
9	1955-05-22	31.05%	@ Esbjerg	1431	1	KB Copenhagen	1488	0
10	1954-10-17	31.90%	@ Skovshoved	1428	3	Aarhus GF	1478	2
11	1954-10-24	32.95%	Skovshoved	1432	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1475	1
12	1955-05-30	33.13%	Koge BK	1437	5	@ KB Copenhagen	1478	2
13	1955-04-17	33.14%	Odense	1401	4	@ Esbjerg	1442	3
14	1954-10-03	33.26%	B 1903	1415	2	@ Koge BK	1455	0
15	1955-05-01	33.93%	Skovshoved	1421	3	@ Aarhus GF	1456	1
16	1955-05-19	33.98%	Odense	1395	1	@ Skovshoved	1429	0
17	1955-04-07	34.10%	@ Koge BK	1443	1	Aarhus GF	1477	0
18	1955-06-05	34.18%	B 1903	1403	2	@ Esbjerg	1436	1
19	1955-05-19	34.26%	@ B 1909	1377	3	B 1903	1409	2
20	1955-04-07	34.29%	@ Esbjerg	1437	3	AB Gladsaxe	1470	2
21	1954-10-24	35.41%	Koge BK	1450	3	@ Aarhus GF	1474	2
22	1954-09-11	35.90%	@ B 1903	1417	2	Skovshoved	1438	0
23	1955-06-05	36.08%	Aarhus GF	1479	3	@ AB Gladsaxe	1499	1
24	1955-05-25	36.54%	Aarhus GF	1467	1	@ KB Copenhagen	1483	0
25	1955-05-30	36.66%	B 1903	1398	1	@ Skovshoved	1413	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1955-04-17	15.83	@ B 1909	3	1364	25.04%	Aarhus GF	0	1472	53.18%	21.78%
2	1955-05-18	15.49	KB Copenhagen	4	1472	40.03%	@ Frem	0	1464	37.59%	22.38%
3	1955-06-05	15.46	@ Odense	5	1388	30.83%	Koge BK	1	1447	46.96%	22.20%
4	1954-09-26	13.20	@ Frem	5	1431	38.94%	Odense	1	1430	38.68%	22.39%
5	1954-10-24	12.25	Esbjerg	5	1429	42.51%	@ Odense	1	1403	35.14%	22.35%
6	1955-05-22	11.47	@ AB Gladsaxe	7	1479	46.34%	Skovshoved	2	1425	31.43%	22.23%
7	1954-09-25	11.22	AB Gladsaxe	3	1456	42.65%	@ Skovshoved	0	1429	35.01%	22.35%
8	1955-05-19	11.01	@ Aarhus GF	6	1448	39.79%	Esbjerg	2	1442	37.83%	22.38%
9	1954-11-07	10.89	@ B 1909	5	1357	28.23%	Skovshoved	2	1437	49.72%	22.05%
10	1954-09-26	10.82	@ Aarhus GF	3	1464	44.22%	B 1903	0	1426	33.47%	22.31%
11	1954-10-16	10.79	KB Copenhagen	3	1464	44.36%	@ B 1903	0	1424	33.33%	22.30%
12	1954-10-03	10.24	Skovshoved	4	1418	38.89%	@ Odense	1	1417	38.72%	22.39%
13	1955-05-01	10.08	AB Gladsaxe	3	1465	47.12%	@ Odense	0	1405	30.68%	22.20%
14	1955-05-30	9.92	Koge BK	5	1437	33.13%	@ KB Copenhagen	2	1478	44.57%	22.30%
15	1954-11-21	9.34	@ Odense	4	1399	43.20%	B 1909	1	1368	34.47%	22.34%
16	1954-10-03	9.33	B 1903	2	1415	33.26%	@ Koge BK	0	1455	44.43%	22.30%
17	1954-09-11	8.87	@ B 1903	2	1417	35.90%	Skovshoved	0	1438	41.74%	22.36%
18	1955-05-29	8.48	AB Gladsaxe	3	1490	53.25%	@ B 1909	0	1382	24.98%	21.77%
19	1955-05-30	8.07	@ Aarhus GF	4	1471	49.10%	Odense	1	1396	28.81%	22.09%
20	1955-05-01	7.98	Skovshoved	3	1421	33.93%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1456	43.75%	22.32%
21	1954-11-07	7.93	Odense	4	1391	28.35%	@ KB Copenhagen	2	1470	49.59%	22.06%
22	1954-09-12	7.93	Aarhus GF	2	1456	41.42%	@ Odense	0	1438	36.21%	22.37%
23	1955-06-05	7.65	Aarhus GF	3	1479	36.08%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1499	41.55%	22.37%
24	1955-04-03	7.57	KB Copenhagen	3	1462	36.67%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1477	40.95%	22.38%
25	1954-08-29	7.55	@ Frem	3	1431	36.77%	Skovshoved	1	1445	40.85%	22.38%